PBD Podcast - Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller | PBD Podcast | Ep. 194

Episode Date: October 18, 2022

In this episode, Patrick Bet-David is joined by Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller, Tom Ellsworth, & Adam Sosnick. PBD Podcast Episode 194.  Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Scheller has served the US Marine ...Corps Infantry for 17 years. He has participated in the non-combatant evacuation of American citizens out of Beirut during the 2006 Israeli/Lebanese conflict and worked as a fire support leader, serving during a Mojave Viper and the Ramadi deployment. In 2019, Scheller checked into Marine special forces command and assumed the duties as the executive officer of the second support battalion. TOPICS 0:00 - Start 6:06 - Who is responsible for the Afghanistan withdrawal? 22:31 - Elon Musk gives his thoughts on the war in Russia 41:43 - Who is America's #1 enemy? 47:04 - Is it a good thing that we left Afghanistan? 51:50 - How should the U.S. handle Iran? 58:32 - Reaction to the Alex Jones verdict 1:17:23 - Obama tells Democrats to move on from their obsession with Trump 1:22:22 - Reaction to the average American losing 34k in retirement savings 1:32:02 - Reaction to Kayne West buying Parler 1:34:59 - PBD Birthday Celebration 1:46:04 - Bloomberg admits to 100% chance of recession next year 1:54:38 - Nike founder declares war on the Democratic party in Oregon4 Try our sponsor Aura for 14 days free - https://aura.com/pbd to see how many times your personal information was found on the dark web today.  Check out Stuarts book here: https://www.amazon.com/Crisis-Command-Confidence-Americas-Politicians-ebook/dp/B09YS4M32L Text: PODCAST to 310.340.1132 to get added to the distribution list Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal bestseller Your Next Five Moves (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/pbdpodcast/support

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 I know this life meant for me. Yeah, why would you plan on the life when we got that day? Value payment, giving values, contagiousness, word of entrepreneur, as we can't no value to hate it. I didn't run home, you look what I've become. What I've become. I'm the entrepreneur. Give us some protein in the morning. All right. So, episode 194 with Lieutenant Colonel Stewart Scheller,
Starting point is 00:00:32 which is a very interesting story. By the way, folks, we've been gone for about a week on YouTube. We just found out this morning we can come back on live. We're going to do this on Vimeo, but it's good to be on with you guys. We got, like I said, a special guest with a special story who's got a lot of courage who stood up, a lot of people were talking about it, this man actually put his career on the line
Starting point is 00:00:51 and made a decision. And we got a lot of things to talk to him about, a lot of current events as well as some decisions that he made. So with that being said, thank you so much for being a guest on the podcast. Thanks for having me, guys, excited to be here. Yeah, so, you know, for folks who don't know you,
Starting point is 00:01:04 obviously I've seen you in uniform when your story went viral, when you were being talked about all over the place, when you made some comments against your leadership for the way they, you know, they left Afghanistan and you wanted accountability, you came out, you talked about it, you got that one comment made by somebody you respected to step away. And then 17 years later, you make about it, you got that one comment made by somebody you respected to Step away and then 17 years later you make the video on your resign
Starting point is 00:01:29 So why don't you tell us a little bit about how that whole thing came about it and we'll go from there Yeah, so I was a 17 year infantry officer in the Marine Corps Iraq Afghanistan commanded at the Platoon Company Battalion level got got a master's in military science, and the Afghanistan evacuation was the straw that broke the camels back for me. There's no better list of mistakes that were made by senior military leaders. And I was at a place in my career where I knew not only would no one take accountability, but the military's figured out how to weaponize the media. And so they would spin it as a victory or as a success.
Starting point is 00:02:07 And so I made a video where I asked for accountability by senior military leaders. And then I got fired and escalated ultimately culminating with me doing some jail time, plead now at a court marshal and exiting the Marine Corps short of my retirement. So 17 years, benefits, I know sometimes if they ask people to leave at 15, they'll give them benefits,
Starting point is 00:02:29 but this is not the case. You were three years away from getting the, I think it ended up costing you what, around $2 million. Yeah, so it's about a 4,000 a month for the rest of my life. So yeah, if I lived till 85, it could even be more than 2 million, right? So somebody can do the math on that, I'm 41.
Starting point is 00:02:45 But basically I gave up 4,000 a month for the rest of my life. When you were about to come out and say what you were going to say, there was a question that was asked that said, what do you want to get accomplished, right? I think it was that question. You're not going to come out without having processing it with other people. It's not like you're a private or an E4 or you're an officer lieutenant Colonel, O5. It's not like it's just somebody who's emotional, irrational coming out, had a couple drinks. I'm going to come out and make a comment. You're a family guy. You got a master's. You're somebody that's educated. You're somebody that's smart. So before coming
Starting point is 00:03:22 out, you knew you had to know that if you were to say something like that, it's gonna hurt your 17 year career. What was the tipping point for you to say, screw it, I'm gonna make this decision, I'm gonna go out and call them out. You know, it wasn't thought out before that day, but if you go back and watch the video, I stated that I knew I was risking my retirement in my job.
Starting point is 00:03:44 So I had obviously thought through it, but there just comes a point where your individual values come in conflict with the system. And this happens actually quite frequently. But for me, this was one of those moments where it was so big that I just felt like the service members deserved a leader to give timely assessment of failure. And that my individual advancement wasn't as important as the betterment of the institution. So I joined the military to leave a better America for my children not to have a secure stability
Starting point is 00:04:14 and retirement. And this was one of those moments where it was like if it's not me then who, if not now, then when, and I just decided that it was more important, it was born out of love for the military, love of the organization and love of the Marines that I felt like they deserved a leader to address what was really happening. I think that part's obvious that it came from a place
Starting point is 00:04:35 of being a true believer. I don't think it was coming from a place of wanting to get eyeballs or anything like that. I firmly believe you came from a place of being a true believer to talk about it. But do you think what you wanted to accomplish got accomplished? Or do you think it's kind of an event that's been forgotten about and the likelihood of all us holding those leaders accountable is slim to none?
Starting point is 00:04:58 Well, so the question's complicated because people ask it all the time, you know, do you accomplish what you want to accomplish? First of all, we didn't get in this situation overnight or not going to get out of it overnight and it's not going to be just like a binary. We fix it or we didn't fix it. It's a complicated problem. I do think that conversations have been started, but ultimately, you know, am I able to influence the change?
Starting point is 00:05:18 It doesn't just stop with the statements I made. You know, I wrote a book to double down on that story. And then it's really what can I do in, you know, whether it's the political arena, the entrepreneur arena, the influencing of other people, you know, this is a, it's got to be like a lifetime endeavor. It can't just be one event. So I'm still dedicated to it. You know, here I am in Southern Florida doing a tour, talking to people.
Starting point is 00:05:41 I've got two more events stacked up today. And so I've been very more events stacked up today. And so I've been very busy since I got out, I'm committed to it. Can I say definitively that it will or won't change? I just think it's a tough question to answer. The book is Crisis of Command, which just came out September 6th, how we lost trust and confidence in American generals and politicians. When you were calling out the leaders, you know, you know, specific leaders that you could have said, you know, that person had responsibility and it's because there's a lot of people that you during that time it was, it's Biden's fault.
Starting point is 00:06:14 How can you just pull it in, come out and, you know, it's, it's president's fault. He's the commander of chief, he's the one that screwed up here. Well, no, it's the generals fault. The generals should have given a better report. No, it is Biden's fault. No, it's the people in the, you know, who were actually there that didn't properly report or no, it's the prior administration. Everybody blames everybody, right? From your perspective, from your point of view, as an O5, who was in it, who knows the climate, who knows how not to leave, who knows that others are talking about us regularly.
Starting point is 00:06:47 Everybody knows where eventually leaving Afghanistan. Who does the buck stop with? You know, if you have to say this person first, then this person, then that person, who would those names be? Yeah, so I absolutely think President Biden made some bad decisions. But when I went through my ordeal,
Starting point is 00:07:04 I never actually used the word president, use the word Biden. And every headline you read about me said, Lieutenant Colonel Scheller criticized his president Biden's botched Afghanistan withdrawal. Never used president Biden's name. My wrath during my ordeal was on the military professionals. And so where we're losing wars right now, politicians are outlining objectives. So it's political objectives that we're using violence to try to compel an intermediate do something. And right now our general officers are not being held accountable to that.
Starting point is 00:07:32 And there's a lot of reasons why one of the biggest ones is they rotate out every two years and you can't accomplish the goals within the timeframe of their little tours. And so it's like, well, none of us are accountable. You know, if one of us can't see it from start to end, the no one's really accountable. And so my position was in April,
Starting point is 00:07:51 and I can go through the list real quick, in April 1, 2021, President Biden ordered a withdrawal of military forces from Afghanistan. And the theater commander at the time was a guy named General McKenzie. My opinion is General McKenzie should have pushed back and not allowed that to happen. Now, General McKenzie in his congressional testimony
Starting point is 00:08:10 has said that he disagreed with the president's order and he said as much through Secretary Austin, but the president said, no, this is what we're gonna do. So there's a moral case study right there. So people often say, well, if you're the general, you have to follow the orders. Well, there's historical case studies. If you go back to Carter's presidency, there was a guy named Singlab, S-I-N-G-L-A-U-B, and he was the commander of all forces in Korea. And it's like
Starting point is 00:08:35 the same situation. Carter invited a lot of similarities. And Carter said, I want you to pull all American forces out of Korea. And Singlab's like, if you do that, the Koreans will all go to war, that whole Korean war we had, it'll all be for not. And Carter said, I heard you out, but this is what we're doing. And then Sing-lob went public with his disagreement with Carter and he ultimately changed the course
Starting point is 00:08:54 of those events, right? So we don't make generals like that anymore. So Mackenzie could have done that. He chose not to, right? Secondly, we not only are we evacuating military forces before we evacuate American citizens, no brainer, but we decide to do it from April to September. Anyone that served in Afghanistan
Starting point is 00:09:11 knows the Taliban hides in the mountains in the winter. That's why we have what we call a spring fighting season. So we could have conducted the withdrawal from October to March and been completely uncontested, but we did it in the peak fighting season because the PR date of September 11th was more important than American lives and American treasures. So there's like two huge mistakes
Starting point is 00:09:29 that I saw play out real time as I'm watching this. And then the third week, so this is information that I've got later, the military investigation that was presented to Biden, I think the guy, the reporter's name was like, Leicester Holt, Luke Holt, something like that. Leicester Holt. Yeah, so he asked President Biden, hey, the military investigation, what do you thinkester Holt, Luke Holt, something like that. Lester Holt. Yeah, so he asked President Biden,
Starting point is 00:09:46 hey, the military investigation, what do you think about it? President Biden's like, I reject it. And so when he came back and he tried to ask, like, I don't tell a general follow question, like, what parts do you disagree with? And he just said again, I reject it. And that's the only thing we've got
Starting point is 00:09:57 from the president on that investigation. Well, that investigation was sent to me by a discrepaneled staff officer. And in the investigation, it lays out that General McKenzie's planters, so when. And in the investigation, it lays out that General McKenzie's planers, so when he was doing the withdrawal, starting on April, he assigned a separate general officer to plan the evacuation. So in DC, they're planning a beep prepared to evacuation, separate mission. Those planners planned on using Bogram all the way until the third
Starting point is 00:10:19 week of June, when unexpectedly, then General McKenzie ordered them to pull Bogram off the table. Bogram was the key piece of train that we needed. The planner is even when you read the investigation, don't understand why he made that decision. General McKenzie in his congressional testimony later said because 650 troops wasn't enough to hold the embassy and the H. Kaya airfield right next to the embassy. And so he decided to pull off Bogram. Well, so the next week we abandoned Bogram. Well, so the next week we we abandoned Bogram. A month later, 10 August, the Taliban walks in, finds 7,000 prisoners. I mean,
Starting point is 00:10:51 that's more than we responded to in the entire Kabul disaster. And that's not even counting the Taliban force, right? So then those 7,000 of the Taliban walk up to Kabul. Now it's 15 August. This is when General McKenziesey realizes his plan is following the part. He throws 5,000 troops in addition to the 650 at Kabul. So two Marine battians in the 82nd, they clash with the Taliban. The Marines have confirmed now that they killed,
Starting point is 00:11:16 you know, five to six at least Taliban fighters that's never reported. Then that same day, General McKinsey orders them to stand post with the people they just killed, calls them a critical external partner. They obviously allowed the suicide bomber to go through the checkpoint, probably came from the prison, kills a 13 service members, injures 20 more kills hundreds of Afghans, civilians in the gate. In response, we conduct a drone strike, kill nothing but women and children. And then we stand there and call it an overwhelming success.
Starting point is 00:11:44 I mean, there is no better list of just poor decisions that were made. And so, yeah, the junior and listed service members standing on the wall, grabbing babies over barbed wire, is doing everything can. He's not thinking about politics, and I got all that. But no one is going back and saying, hey, the decisions that were made between the National Security Council and the four-star general put our service members in a terrible position. And there was plenty of off-ramps
Starting point is 00:12:08 and preventable ways to do this better. Such as, well, I mean, you could just go through it. Obviously, and the reason why I ask this is the following. Here's what I ask. Let's just say all of a sudden, you know, in business, somebody's making a bad decision at the top, right? And it's a big business, not a small business. Afghanistan is not a small business.
Starting point is 00:12:28 It's a big business, meaning we put a lot of money into it. We didn't put $10 million, $100 million, a billion. We put real money into Afghanistan. Some are saying the trillion, some are saying the trillion. That's a lot of money that we put into this thing. That's a big investment. So when something like that happens and people are fully vested, their lives, their friends have died, they've seen crisis, they've seen issues, you've witnessed
Starting point is 00:12:50 stuff, that stuff's going to be with you till the day you die. You can't get that out of you, right? So you're emotionally vested. You're to an average person's like, what do you guys complaining about it? It's just we're out. It's done. It's over. Why are you still complaining about it? What are you talking about? You weren't there seeing what's a sacrifice? We were paying Was there was there hardcore arguments on the back end disagreements fight saying what the hell are we doing? Who's agreeing to this? Was there anybody courageous enough to go to McKinsey and say why are you making this decision? Why are we going? Were there any stories like that that we're not aware of?
Starting point is 00:13:20 No, not that I know of. How is that even possible? Exactly right. I mean, that's why I made the video because I felt exactly what we're not aware of? No, not that I know of. How is that even possible? It's exactly right. I mean, that's why I made the video because I felt exactly what we're talking about now. No one's having these conversations. It's crazy. It really, it was just quite, I couldn't fathom the list of decisions that were made. And, you know, I've had some staff officers
Starting point is 00:13:39 that wrote some of the operational plans and they told me that Bogrum was always part of the plans but the National Security Council rejected it, right? And so, you know, they're not all dumb people, but it's just the way these decisions were made without pushback was really my whole contention from that first video. So, okay, so we've had multiple people that I've talked about how different we could have done it. You gave one of them.
Starting point is 00:14:02 We could have waited a little bit because the season would have been better if we would have gone October to March instead of, because they're trained for that. But they wanted to do a PR stunt because of 9-11, so they didn't want to wait that long, they wanted to get it done. What other things could we have done differently? Well, the no-brainer is we should have just held on to Bogrum, and maintained air support within the country,
Starting point is 00:14:23 I mean, for decades. That would have been so easy to do. That's what we still doing in Korea. I mean, we've got hundreds of thousands still across Europe from World War II. I mean, that was the no-brainer. With a thousand people, you could have held bottom and you could have had this huge air presence. And that's what we've been doing for the last five years.
Starting point is 00:14:40 I mean, people don't really, like, it's not like the wars of 2009 through 12. I mean, really, for the last five years, all we've done is provide air support for our Afghan national partners. And so the decision to pull that, I mean, I just, it was hard for me to wrap my brain around it. Stu, most of us saw this clip. Yeah. This clip went viral, you know, and then you hear people saying, well, you know, it's not really
Starting point is 00:15:05 this, it's Photoshop, it's from another time, it's this, it's sad. You guys don't know what you're talking about. Why are you guys spreading conspiracy theories? What can you tell us from personal experience of what this image, this picture, this video that we all saw represents? Yeah, I mean, that's real. Some of those pilots. So imagine a O3, a mid-20s Air Force pilot in that plane right now, and he has to make decisions of whether he's going to kill... Oh, three. Yeah. Young guys, right?
Starting point is 00:15:35 So, like, that's not talked about. Think about the 20-year-old pilot that has to make decisions to either stop the plane or keep driving and kill potentially all those people holding on to the plane. And they were afraid that if they stopped the plane, the plane was gonna get overrun and destroyed. And so that poor guy had to make the decision to essentially kill people to take off. Who were those people?
Starting point is 00:15:56 What were they looking to do? So this is the H. Kaya airfield. So this is, we made the decision to basically drop down to two spots, the embassy in H. Kaya airfield. So this is, we made the decision to basically drop down to two spots for the embassy and H-Kaya airfield. And then eventually we evacuated the embassy and now we're just operating out of this place. This place was just not easily defended. It had like 13-14 checkpoints. And what happened was on 15 August when the Taliban rolled up, they pushed all of the civilians into the airfield and kind
Starting point is 00:16:25 of used them as cover when they were getting into firefights. And so when they pushed all the civilians on the airfield, this is right when the Americans were also responding, didn't have their act together. This was the chaos that ensued. Roger. Can I, let me ask you a question. Well, number one, genuinely, thank you for your service. I know a lot of people just kind of say that, but generally, I'm getting this sense of deep deep sombriness and
Starting point is 00:16:49 mindfulness from you. So I'm gonna ask you a personal question now. I'm asking Stu a question not Lieutenant Colonel Stewart-Shellor, if you don't mind. I'm asking Stu like How are you feeling right now? Are you are you angry? Are you distraught? Are you fired up? Are you confident? Are you at peace? Like, generally stew, how are you feeling? You know, emotions are day-to-day, right? Genuinely right now, I'm kind of tired
Starting point is 00:17:16 because I had to get up at 5 a.m. to drive over here. But yeah, your question is my headspace. And I'll tell you when I wrote the book, and then you have to like reread the book a hundred times for editing purposes. That was like physically draining to me to the point where when I like read it for the umpteenth time at the end of April, I literally couldn't read it again. I didn't read it until it came out in September because it just took such a spiritual physical mental toll. And yeah, and so there's a lot of unknown.
Starting point is 00:17:46 I've always been, I knew what was next, high school, then I'm gonna go to college. Once I go to college, I'm gonna join the Marine Corps. And then I'm in the Marine Corps, I'm gonna go to retirement. And like right now, there isn't a plan, and I'm trying to be comfortable with just kind of trying to see where this path leads me.
Starting point is 00:18:03 And so that also kind of takes a toll. And then traveling, you know, I've been just in the last couple weeks, I was in Texas and then Southern California. Then after this, I'm going to Nashville and then Devegas, you know. And so that also can be draining. But I feel like I'm kind of guided by a bigger purpose. And, you know, I like being busy. And so I guess that's a lot of words to say bigger purpose and you know, I like being busy And so guess that's a lot of words to say. I don't know man's day to day. What is your you said you've been in the military 17 years
Starting point is 00:18:31 Yeah, all right. You got in at oh four Yeah, I put in the paper we're gonna for I started boot camp January of five Okay, so and you got out less than a year ago give her take Christmas Eve last year. Okay, so you've been a civilian for less than 12 months. That's right. You talked about a bigger purpose. Now, you're kind of, you know, you know, Moses and the desert lost wanderer, you basically right now, not to get too biblical. But what is your deeper sense of purpose now that you're a civilian?
Starting point is 00:19:00 Well, the natural path or like the way the current is taking me is towards politics, but the truth is, I don't know if I wanna be a politician. The only thing that kinda outweighs that is I have a huge disdain for the current politicians, right? So it's like, do I wanna go and try and do that? Because it's just, the last six months I've been supporting different candidates. And so I've kinda gotten a PhD in politics and how campaigns work, how town halls work, blah,
Starting point is 00:19:27 blah, blah. And so I have a deeper understanding of it, but it's just a ruthless game. And I think I would be happier just being a farmer, to be quite honest with you, reading and writing. But at the same time, what I'm probably most passionate about is leaving a better America for my children. And if I don't see the leadership qualities and the people that are our representatives it may compel me to go do that And so that's kind of the internal struggle right now. You said you're tired at any point you just you said being a farmer Do you want to just take a year and just chill?
Starting point is 00:20:00 Seriously, yeah We also a gladiator right? Yeah, and like And he just wants to kind of just harvest his land and just touch the land, not fight anymore. You're still fighting, but in a different arena. I know. You're 100% right. Yeah, absolutely. That calls to me.
Starting point is 00:20:16 I don't know. Right now, the drawback to waiting. So when I was going through everything, I went through. I'll give you an example of the risk to waiting. So the interCC, the way politics work, the, for Congress, the, at least the Republican Party divides the United States up into five regions. And then each one of those five people find candidates for the, for Congress. So this guy came down and wanted me to run out of Congress for the GOP in North
Starting point is 00:20:46 Carolina. He came and he sought me out like September, October of 21. And I essentially told him no. But his argument was the longer you wait, you know, the notoriety, the name brand, the ability to influence degrades. And I was like, well, that's fine, but I'm just not mentally, I don't have the headspace. My going through a divorce, my stuff's at storage. I don't know where I'm going to be in six months, like I can't do it. Right?
Starting point is 00:21:14 And so now, fast forward, I've got a place where all my stuff's out of storage, my divorce is finalized, I'm in a good place with her, the kids, and I've wrote a book, so I kind of got that story out there. It's a little bit better, but at the same time, to your point, you know, maybe now it's time to step back. Or is it, you know, you weigh that against, you know, exploit the opportunities as you have them now, don't stop. And so I don't know. I don't think there's a right or wrong answer. I think it's just something that I got to figure out on my own,
Starting point is 00:21:43 but there's, there's cost to both. I gotta, I wanna do this, because when you have something like this experience that you have, it's important for us to know when we're having currently Ukraine and Russia going on, we have Taiwan and China going on. We have these types of issues that's going on. We have Iran going on right now with the people protesting.
Starting point is 00:22:02 We got a lot of stuff going on right now. We have an Elon Musk, if you want to pull up his tweet, I'll just read it to you what Elon Musk just recently said. I think we all saw it. It was yesterday, but I'll just give the whole context so people know. Just pull up the tweets so we can have it. Let me see if I have it.
Starting point is 00:22:21 OK, so Elon Musk warned civilization is over if Ukraine doesn't give in to Russia. Okay. Self-proclaimed political expert Elon Musk, obviously that comment means they like him a lot. It has issued a stark warning to Ukraine as Russia's invasion countries continues. Using Twitter to platform he is likely to soon own and control the world's richest man made a number of eyebrow raising predictions for eventualities regarding the outcome of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. If Russia is faced with the choice of losing Crimea or using battlefield nukes, they will
Starting point is 00:22:52 choose the latter. The SpaceX and Tesla CEO tweeted, the West has already sanctioned cutoff Russia in every possible way. So what more do they have left to lose? If we nuke Russia back, they will nuke us. And then we have World War Three. In short, musk is arguing that Ukraine should give in to Russia's demand or else a highly controversial perspective that has already landed him in hot water recently.
Starting point is 00:23:17 Last week, he announced SpaceX will no longer supply Starlink in an satellite tech to Ukraine. The decision he reversed two days later. They're not saying why One of their diplomats one of their leaders told him to go f off. That's why he just canceled it but when you when you hear you know the experience and the lack of proper decision-making in Afghanistan that you second guest and a lot of people also second Yes, you're not alone there and then we have this going on right. Now we're a guy like Elon Musk is commenting,
Starting point is 00:23:47 how do you, what do you think about what Elon said and what do you think about the way we've been handling Russia and Ukraine? Yeah, so two very different questions. So first of all, Crimea, I mean, Russia annexed that way before the current conflict that we're having here. So I think Musa's comments was, they've already annexed Crimea,
Starting point is 00:24:05 just acknowledge, give them that, but then there's still a whole bunch of contested area right now in the Eastern portion of Ukraine. And so ultimately what Musa is advocating for is some concessions by Ukraine. And the Ukrainians are been operating the way they have for the last 60-ish years, and they don't wanna go back to Russia-controlled territory.
Starting point is 00:24:30 I don't know, it's complicated. So I would say, my opinion is that the United States, a lot of times, can't get out of its own way and makes matters worse. And so I'm not sure that the billions and billions of dollars that we've given Ukraine was the best return on investment. Thinking a lot of ways, it probably cripples our European allies who should be doing the same thing.
Starting point is 00:24:54 I mean, there's no better example of a pacified culture than the Germans. The Germans are right there and should really, in my opinion, be doing a lot more. How this ends, I'm not sure. I think people are getting a little too hysterical about Vladimir Putin not being a rational human being. I don't know if I agree with that assessment. I understand why he did what he did with the advancement of NATO. But I do believe it was a strategic mistake. I do believe he has old KBG thinking
Starting point is 00:25:28 KGB, excuse me. And so, you know, his old style of thinking is more land equals more power and that's just not true in today's world. Today it's controlling the beliefs of the people as the ultimate power. And if by going for more land, he polarizes all the beliefs of the people. He's actually degraded a lot of his power. I mean, look no further than Sweden and Norway to look at his strategic failures. So really what we're arguing about is some border region areas. And I don't know how that'll play out,
Starting point is 00:25:57 but I'm not convinced that Vladimir Putin is not rational. And I'm also not convinced that we should be giving as much money to Ukraine as we are. What's the likelihood you think of this thing getting ugly? The way Elon says, if we make a cup of bad moves,
Starting point is 00:26:13 this guy goes first, we retaliate, it can turn into a World War III. What's the likelihood of that? I think it comes back to the beliefs of the people. And so I think people in America often want to project Russians as these evil people. Russians are very much like us, white Christian, European type people.
Starting point is 00:26:35 Like if you actually hang out with a Russian, they are very kind to Americans and like Americans, right? If I went into a Muslim country like Iran, they would not be as kind, and they would have a different belief system. Same thing with the Chinese. And so, I guess I'm just not convinced that the Russian people are going to allow it to happen, but, you know, crazy or things have happened. Is it a threat that we should be worried about? Absolutely. But Elon Musk projecting that Vladimir Putin is completely irrational. Therefore, we must concede certain things, I think, as maybe a stretch.
Starting point is 00:27:10 Did you hear the rumor that came out title or last speak that they're saying, must-cada conversation with Putin? Yeah, I've heard that briefly. Do you hear about that this last week, where Elon Musk had a conversation with Putin, you know, an article saying, did Elon Musk speak with Vladimir Putin? I don't know if... Can he zoom in a little bit?
Starting point is 00:27:29 He's now repeating and Putin talking about, he's a Putin asset because the guy doesn't want to do anything. To piss off. Let me read this story from 1945 that just came out a couple days ago. Biden's Ukraine strategy could start a nuclear war with Russia. What too many of our current leaders and enthusiastic in Washington Hawks somehow failed to recognize
Starting point is 00:27:50 however is that unlike all our military opponents of the past several decades, Russia's possession of nuclear weapons means they can in a moment of desperation of fear initiate a nuclear war that could quite literally wipe the United States out of existence. Obviously, that's hard exaggeration, but this is what the writer is saying. This should not be hard to understand. If the US and NATO finally provide enough firepower, intelligence and training to Ukrainian troops that will enable them to physically drive Russian forces completely out of Ukraine territories, especially the highly charged emotional areas
Starting point is 00:28:26 of Donbass and Crimea. Putin will be forced into a corner where he has to choose between allowing his entire force to be completely defeated or escalate to use of nuclear weapons. What do you think about what this article says? Yeah, I mean, that's a theory. I'm obviously not Vladimir Putin,
Starting point is 00:28:43 but I don't know if I agree. There's a way, I think, for him to save face without giving him all of the Donbass area. I mean, I'm not a geography major. I've looked at it on a map. Seems to be a pretty big area. I mean, here he has Crimea. And I think, quite honestly, we've already defeated him strategically. Like, even if he comes out of this with parts of the Donbass,
Starting point is 00:29:05 I don't know if he sees it as a victory. So, like, let's define that. What is victory and what is complete defeat for him? I mean, I don't know. I would submit holding on to Crimea might not be a complete defeat. And there's probably ways where we could come to the table and make it not look like he completely got defeated. I mean, maybe I'm wrong.
Starting point is 00:29:24 Yeah, I think that's the real question, right? Right, exactly. What do you do for him to say face? Because this is not a regular guy that's, you know, he cannot be publicly offended. Yeah. And that's what it's looking like. Tom, history, you've been, you've followed stories
Starting point is 00:29:40 like this for a while. How do you, what do you think is the proper way to do something here where at least you, you please him, but also at the same time, you're not doing something where you're giving him everything he wants? Well, I think there's a lot of examples of this that happen in the resolutions of the Arab-Israeli wars. When you go back and take a look, like when Egypt came across to us canal and then occupied West Bank.
Starting point is 00:30:06 And remember what happened was the Israelis pushed them all the way back into the canal, over the canal, and then took part of Egypt's land on the other side. And what you had to do here is Israel is like, I'm not giving back the land on the other side of the canal because now I have a buffer against a known, demonstrated aggressor. And so I'm going to extend the buffer here.
Starting point is 00:30:28 And there was negotiations that had to take place to make it literally a demilitarized zone that Israel only would accept policing that was 100% demilitarized by Egyptian forces. And you had to give Anmar Sadat, even though he was the aggressor, a face saving, otherwise the people, these Egyptian people that just at their core of their heart hate Israel, you know, we're not going to be happy and they're going to be rioting. So you had to balance both things for the ego of the leader, as well as the response to the people. And I think that's exactly the delicate thing that had to happen here.
Starting point is 00:31:00 And the West had to whisper to Israel and say, say listen you took it back fair and square they came across and you literally kicked the crap out of them for seven days with us equipment you're not in you know the history I do and then they came back and they said okay we're gonna come back across but this will now be a completely demilitarized zone there can be no Egyptians that are armed in the area but they can police it up to the old border so the old border. So the old border was restored, but without presence of any military assets, which is what the only thing that the Israelis would allow.
Starting point is 00:31:35 There can be no military assets there, because you've demonstrated what you do with them. And so it saved face for Sadat. It saved the people being the militant part of the people from being an open conflict, the way they are constantly now. In the other side of Jerusalem, we have the three territories that are never at peace. And I think that's exactly what has to happen here. An international diplomat has to step up, find a way for him to save face, maybe let him keep Crimea, and then pull back on this, because you've got this leader,
Starting point is 00:32:07 and it's happened before in history. We have rational people around the world can come together to defuse what could be a second bomb. Can I ask a question? Historically, what have been the moments where a person who played a role of a diplomat or somebody that just was a question historically, what have been the moments where a person who played a role of a diplomat or somebody that just was a unifier, that held a meeting between in the middle of war, that held a meeting between two of the hated leaders or presidents or prime ministers
Starting point is 00:32:36 come together, historically, how often has that happened? You think of people like Kissinger, you know, who was a US, but he was seen as this, he was really seen as a, as a old school, you know, ambassadorial light touch diplomat. He was our guy and he was US, but he was able to, he was able to negotiate. Who's that guy today with soft skills that can have these types of conversations? I think you go back. I don't know. Well, today, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:33:09 Well, two, a couple different points. You're going to go Blinken is not not something. Well, the first thing that comes to mind was Clinton sitting down with Yasser Arafat in the Etzacra bean, Israel PLO. These days, former governor New Mexico Bill Richardson, he's kind of sent all around the world to get hostage out of enemy countries.
Starting point is 00:33:30 But Tom's point, not to deviate, I don't know if you guys saw on Bill Mar, this weekend, they had BB Nathanyahu, the former prime minister of Israel. You spent some time in the Israeli Lebanon conflict in mid 2000. My ultimate question to Tom is, spent some time in the Israeli Lebanon conflict in mid 2000. My ultimate question to Tom is that example that you gave to the Suez Canal and the Sinai Peninsula of Israel in Egypt.
Starting point is 00:33:52 It's actually a great example. The only difference is now this guy's got nukes. And Putin has a much, much, much bigger ego, questionably a fragile, more fragile ego ego than anwar-sadat. So how do you grapple with the fact that he's as a such a large world president, social media is so much more amplified. Everyone's eyeballs on Ukraine versus an Egypt situation
Starting point is 00:34:16 before social media, and he's got nuke. So is it really a fair analogy? I think the human side of it is identical, just the tools and consequences are worse because the tools are bigger, but the human side of it is identical, just the tools and consequences are worse because the tools are bigger, but the human side of it is the same. And I also go back and I give credit to Jimmy Carter and a Camp David piece of chords, and I believe his guy was the big new Brzezinski. Mika Brzezinski's dad.
Starting point is 00:34:41 Yes, right. Brzezinski. Yep, I think he was our guy that broke her time. Big time. At that who didn't need newspaper headlines, didn't want a book deal, but he quietly made it happen. And I think to your question, Pat, that's the kind of guy we need right now.
Starting point is 00:34:56 I have two points I want to make on this. So first, I've been holding on to this, Siddat comment. I think Siddat and Putin, it's, I understand the point you're making, but Sadat literally just wanted to cross the Suez as like a show of force. I don't think he ever wanted to gain territory. He just wanted to show the Muslim world that he could cross the Suez.
Starting point is 00:35:19 And then literally as Israel was beating them back, he was declaring victory because it was more of a show. Whereas Putin, I think, you know, wants to use violence and gain territory. So I'm just sitting here thinking, you know, how could we, you know, give on this? So Elon Musk's recommendation is strictly land-based, you know, concessions of land. Literally the reason what is driving Putin is not maniacal madness. It's because he sees natives expansion as a threat. So if the West is going to concede something, I think the Donbass and the Crimea is much less
Starting point is 00:35:55 important than the threat that NATO poses to Putin. So quite honestly, if the United States wanted to end this war right now, they could say, Hey, United States is pulling out a NATO. We're going to take all those forces, put them on our own southern border. You guys figure it out. Putin says, I'm okay with that. And he goes back to Russia. I mean, you could solve that with something like that. But the problem is so many people are invested in NATO that that would also be a hard sell. But that would be a way you could de-escalate. Do you not think that it's vital for the united states to be a major part of nato i think i would pull out a nato completely i think
Starting point is 00:36:30 now do i think a strong presence in the global arena uh... establishes order yes do i think that america has set the world tone for the last century yes do i think nato has extremely crippled our European allies? Yes. And so- Why crippled? Be- just the budget is probably the biggest one, right? If we weren't there providing, you know, 80% of the budget,
Starting point is 00:36:57 then they would be forced to spend more. This was essentially Trump's argument for years. Yes. Which is term- Pay your bill. Yeah. Where? Pay your bill. Yeah, pay your bill. But Trump was just advocating for them to pay their 3%.
Starting point is 00:37:08 Right. And they weren't even doing that. I don't think Trump went far enough. And quite honestly, with everyone can't figure out how to fix our southern border, you don't even need to build a wall. Just take all those NATO forces that are across Europe and put them on our southern border. And I could solve the problem in a month.
Starting point is 00:37:23 Like, that's what we do. It's not even just around Europe. I mean, how many bases does the United States have over the word? 800 something bases. We've covered this whereas like China has one in Djibouti. I've done that. Oh, you've been to Djibouti? I've been to Djibouti for the rest of the world.
Starting point is 00:37:37 Really? Yeah. I'm not going there with you, though. Do you think we need 800 bases all over the world? You know, the number, the frequency of bases that I had to take a look at, because there are like Djibouti, for example, is where we fly all our UAS off of all those contested areas.
Starting point is 00:37:56 And so there is some strategic importance to some of them. But yeah, to your point, I think we have maybe scattered ourselves a little thin. And it's like one of those things that once you get a base, like just use Djibouti for example. All right, we need a hundred service members. Well, those hundred service members need 50 people to run the chow hall. All right, well, those 50 people that run the chow hall also need another hundred people to service the bathrooms and build the houses. And then these things just grow and all of a sudden a hundred man footprint is now a 2000 person thing. Someone's got to operate the gym.
Starting point is 00:38:25 Somebody's got to operate the movie center and it just gets out of control very quickly. Budget-wise, it gets out of control. Yeah, I mean, the president, you're suddenly at that and then, and then especially look around the world and bases, they say that you're also bringing cultural dynamics that they don't want. That when you're off base, you are influencing their culture.
Starting point is 00:38:46 And you came here, you started with base, and ended up with a village, and now you're influencing my culture. And that's where you get these deeper resentments. Okanella. I mean, just look at Okanella, the Marine Corps base. Literally, they have hundreds of people that protest outside the gate every day
Starting point is 00:39:01 because of exactly what is being described. The culture feels like it's being influenced by the base, and they wanted out, but the Japanese are like, no, it's been a lot of people who have been talking about the gate every day because of exactly what is being described. The culture feels like it's being influenced by the base and they want it out. But the Japanese are like, no, it's too important to us. It's funny, but Okinawa, a lot of guys would go to Okinawa and they'd come back married or they would stay and become schoolteachers. Like people that don't want to leave Okinawa.
Starting point is 00:39:18 People, a lot of people come back with a Japanese wife when they went to Okinawa. Really? What was it about Okinawa that was so special? I mean, I don't know if we can talk about it. Okay, let's say in that. No, but it's an example. There you have it. And they're here and they're influencing our culture
Starting point is 00:39:32 and now they're marrying our women and there's all these things going. Can you guys just leave please? That's what all these protests are. It's too, I don't know if it's a binary thing. So feel free to elaborate. But there's American interests, freedom, everything that we stand for's American interests, freedom, you know, everything
Starting point is 00:39:45 that we stand for, you know, capitalism, democracy, kind of putting our footprint on the globe. And then there's corporate interest, the military industrial complex, like it has nothing to do with America and our interests that has to do with making money and, you know, people just sucking at the teeth of the military. Where do you see the military right now if those are the two binary extremes? I think the industrial complex drives a lot of our conflicts, unfortunately. I mean, just take a look. General Mattis went from general dynamics to secretary defense back to general dynamics. Our current secretary defense went from Raytheon to secretary defense. General Dumpford right now is on Lockheed Martin. I mean, all of them take these board member positions on the
Starting point is 00:40:30 oligopoly of government contracting firms and the government contracting firms hire them because it garners influence within the active general population. And it incentivizes war, right? And so it's a problem. And I even put it in my book. I think you can't stop a general officer from getting out and creating these, I don't know, immoral, unethical connections, but you can sure make him choose between his retirement and that board member position,
Starting point is 00:41:00 but I don't think they should give both. And so I would, if I was a Secretary of defense, at least have a cooling off period. I mean, that just seems common sense. Like if you're, if you retire as a general for at least five to 10 years, you shouldn't be jumping on these boards, but for whatever reason. Same thing in politics with lobbyists. Yeah. Pat, you've got in on lobbyists and how you could just jump from being a senator and
Starting point is 00:41:23 all your lobbyists for tobacco farm or whatever it is. You've, you've have in on lobbyists and how you could just jump from being a senator and all you're lobbyists for tobacco farm or whatever it is. You've have extreme opinions on this one. We've talked about that many times when it comes onto lobbyists. By the way, let me ask this question. Nuclear bonds have only been used twice in history, in warfare, right? They've been tested over 2,000 times. You got an article that just came out here about China saying China's vertical nuclear expansion is real. Most concerning is the PRC's modern and grown nuclear arsenal, more precisely the significant vertical expansion
Starting point is 00:41:55 and increase in a number of nuclear warheads of this arsenal in the hands of such destabilizing force. It needs to be confronted, post-haste by public accounts to PRC had approximately 240 nuclear heads in 2010 today. It's at 350 by 2030 They're projecting to have around a 1000 Beijing will continue the largest ever nuclear force expansion and arsenal diversification in its history Beijing it's not is not interested in agreements that restrict its plans and will not agree to negotiations that lock in US or Russian agreements that restrict its plans and will not agree to negotiations that lock in US or Russian advantages, right? Okay, so if it's only been used twice, it's been tested 2,000 times and everybody is concerned about people having nuclear bombs and everyone wants to have them, like what do you have in it for? You know,
Starting point is 00:42:38 because if one starts and it triggers and it's really a nuclear war that happens worldwide, what's going to be left over if they go that direction? Why is everybody so obsessed with having nuclear bombs? It's the assurance of mutual destruction. So I will say, like, there are countries where you could look and their willingness to give up the nuclear bomb resulted in us exploiting them. I mean, look at Libya.
Starting point is 00:43:04 I mean, that is a great case study on, you know, pursuing nuclear weapons. We convince you to get rid of it and then we topple you. You know, you can just keep going down the list with that. But I, when looking at history, I feel like when a country has nuclear power, at least the United States seems to respect them more. And I mean, Pakistan is a great example where if we really wanted to win the war in Afghanistan at any point, Western Pakistan was the Taliban's United States of what United States used quite for to facilitate logistics is what the Taliban used in Pakistan. But we didn't want to go in there because they were a nuclear power. So
Starting point is 00:43:42 I think if I was a country, that would be something I would get because if you don't have it and they do, they're going to treat you with less respect. Very interesting. I mean, it's just purely about, you know, making sure you have a little bit of leverage and protection. That's an insurance policy. That's all it is. That's exactly right. It's something you may never, ever use, but just the fact that the other person knows you have it, they give you a little more respect. That's right. I think the phrase that gets used and I don't mean this in an ethically derogatory way But there is a phrase out there that says it's a Mexican standoff, which means that you're both kind of stalemated
Starting point is 00:44:15 I mean look at North Korea as an example tiny little peninsula and They're on the world stage because they got nuclear bombs That's literally probably all they have or people probably have to eat nuclear pieces of bombs for breakfast. But people forget what he's doing, right? His nuclear capabilities are actually, you know, 1980 grade at best. But what does he keep testing? The ability to deliver them. He keeps launching the inter- the missiles that are unarmed.
Starting point is 00:44:44 So what he's showing everybody is that he's increasing his rocketry technology so that he could deliver a bomb. But his actual nuclear capabilities are more meager. But it makes one crazy guy with one dirty bomb and the ability to deliver it into downtown Tokyo, not just a menace. Now he's got a chip at the table. Yep. Interesting.
Starting point is 00:45:08 So you put the story up Tyler, North Korea fire's powerful missile using old playbook in a new world. The last time Pyongyang launched a weapon was over Japan in 2017 when Donald J. Trump was president Kim Jong-un seemed intent on escalating conflict into with Washington. And if you recall, that's exactly when Trump was like,
Starting point is 00:45:28 I would release great fire and fury, that whole thing and people like, he's gonna start World War Three. And next thing you know him and Kim Jong Un are exchanging love letters. It's probably when Nilly started collecting up the nuclear launch kids. And what's wild is, nothing happened in four years. That's what's wild. nothing happened in four years.
Starting point is 00:45:45 That's what's wild. Nothing happened in four years. Everybody was just kind of sitting there saying, let's wait for this guy to leave. And then if we want to do anything, let's do it afterwards. Boom, he's gone. Next thing, you know, Afghanistan and all the other stuff started.
Starting point is 00:45:58 Not during his reign, but it started right after him and they tried to capitalize because maybe they were concerned he was going to do something about it. He really, the guy's insane. He really just wants a three-movie deal and merchandising rights. You didn't have a good job. But back to Trump.
Starting point is 00:46:12 You'd be the expert here, but didn't he put together the agreement to leave Afghanistan, the Doha agreement? We didn't abide by anything in the Doha agreements because the Doha band didn't abide by anything in the Doha agreement. So everybody wants to go back to doha, but we pulled out a doha. Okay, so yeah, I don't know. He had a conditional agreement and they did not meet the conditions of the agreement. And but I was not. Correct. What I'll also point out though is that plan ended with us holding on to Bogram Air Base. Okay. And so when I hear President Biden,
Starting point is 00:46:44 you know, talking about the agreement that President Trump got into after we left Bogram Air Base. And so when I hear President Biden talking about the agreement that President Trump got into after we left Bogram, it just frustrates me more. Let me ask you one more on this topic. I don't think anyone will object to the nature of which we left Afghanistan. It was a mess. We left $85 billion worth of hardware.
Starting point is 00:47:01 And now you're here, Iran, and whoever's getting their hands on it. So no doubt that we could have left a lot cleaner, no doubt. But the concept of just leaving Afghanistan or fundamentally leaving Afghanistan, I think a lot of Americans were just so sick of the fact that we're still 20 years later, how the fuck are we still in Afghanistan? Yeah. Right? So can you appreciate at least not the manner in which we left
Starting point is 00:47:29 with the fact that we at least got out of there? Do you agree that there was at least a major appetite in America to get out of Afghanistan? Yeah, I mean, if you go back to my first video, I said, I'm not saying we have to be in Afghanistan forever, but I am saying that I went on to what I was saying. I personally believe that I went on to what I was saying. I personally believe that we should
Starting point is 00:47:47 have left a small footprint in Bogger. That's my position. Do I understand why the American people were over Afghanistan? Yes, I think it's shortsighted because just look at the al-Qaeda coming right back into Afghanistan. You need some type of base and presence in my opinion.
Starting point is 00:48:04 It's a hotbed. There's probably three or four countries where, you know, terrorism grows in Afghanistan as one of them. Bottom line. And so I think just from a national security standpoint, we need to have a footprint. We already owned that terrain. It made a lot of sense for me. But do I acknowledge that the American people were over Afghanistan? Yeah, absolutely. And what, what, absolutely. When we pulled that, would we have 2,000 soldiers in Afghanistan? We started with 2,500 on 1 April, and then we went down to 650. So it was a minimal force, and we were keeping peace in order.
Starting point is 00:48:34 That's right. So that exactly right, with 2,500 troops, we owned Afghanistan. And we owned Afghanistan. So the investment was 2,500 troops, and you own Afghanistan. But that was too much, right? And so that's, you know, and you just look, I wish somebody had the stat for how many
Starting point is 00:48:51 forces are in Europe right now. There's not a lot of terrorism being created in Europe. I mean, there is some, but not to the point of Afghanistan. And we probably have, you know, 50 to 100,000 troops in Europe right now, right? So it's just, you know, do the math. It seems like a good return on investment for me. Stu, this is a pretty blunt question, but you know, there's a phrase that I think you've used
Starting point is 00:49:12 this path that in the Taliban, they said that, well, you guys have all the watches, but we have all the time. Like spend the next couple of decades here, buddy, spend 50 years here, 100 years, we're not going anywhere, okay? But at the same time, you're talking about United States military,
Starting point is 00:49:26 Marine Corps, number one in the world, versus a bunch of sandal footed, machete wielding gun toading dudes. How the hell did we not just, those are AKs. Okay, how did we not beat the shit out of them and just move on, like, why was it even close? So I think we won most tactical engagements. Now that doesn't, that's not all of them, obviously.
Starting point is 00:49:53 But you also got to keep in mind, technology is one thing, but the most lethal weapon is a human mind. And so if I grew up in Afghanistan, wearing a man dress and sandals, but all I was told, I didn't have any TV, all I was told about was the warriors that fought the Russians. And I was taught how to use an AK. And I had my buddies, and that was like the only thing in my world.
Starting point is 00:50:13 I don't care how much technology you got, I'm gonna bring some lethal force to bear. And the people that we had in our American, propped up government in Afghanistan, were not the real men. The real men were the ones that were, you that were grew up hearing stories about fighting the Russians and they got with their buddies and they got little gangs together and fell within the structure of the Taliban, went over to Pakistan, got some more training, and then came over and fought.
Starting point is 00:50:36 And so, you know, I don't... the Taliban was never a terrorist. And I talk about that in my book. They were the government, they were the conventional force. We displaced them. It was confusing because we were fighting a global war on terrorism in Afghanistan, but that only strictly applied to Al Qaeda, which we cleaned up very quickly. So then we found ourselves in a position where we were going against the conventional force, the Taliban. And like you said, how you started this was they had time on their side. They were willing to wait us out. And so anyone that's willing to wait us out, if the American people get to a point where like we don't want to be there anymore, then they're going to win.
Starting point is 00:51:12 Like you can't exterminate them, right? You can keep winning tactical battles, but then it requires the American people to say we're going to leave 2,500 in Bogger, Maribase so that we can continue to pound them with air support when when required. Yeah. and continue to pound them with air support when required. Yeah, you're really emphatic that 2,500 troops in Bogum air forces and air bases, all we really needed. I think so.
Starting point is 00:51:32 Yeah, I mean, you know, crazy things have happened, but again, we've been doing that for the last five years. Stu, when you were deployed and you were all over the place, what was the understanding, or maybe even the interpretation you had on how different Iran was, dealing with Iran as a government and military then some of these other countries in the Middle East.
Starting point is 00:51:54 I mean, everyone that I thought in Iraq was Iranian, mostly, all the electromagnetic force penetrators were Iranian. And so when you were in Iraq, you really felt like you were fighting Iran Electromagnetic Force penetrators were Iranian. And so when you were in Iraq, you felt like you were fighting Iran in a lot of ways. All the things that I studied originated from Iran. And that was my second war. The first one was when I was in Beirut, and again, Hezbollah was a lot of Iranian influence.
Starting point is 00:52:21 So I mean, I've spent a lot of my time dealing with proxy groups from Iran and Iran's the major player in there. And you know, the United States has gone in and kind of destabilized everyone around them. You know, Syria included in that. And now you've got Iran that kind of is just standing there by itself as the regional player. What's their strength? What's their weakness? If you were to say, you're going to attack them. If you're going to figure out a way to help their people revolt against them where democracy can come there You would do it this way, but this is the one area their strength. You cannot beat them in this area I think I ran much like China strength and weakness is centralized control
Starting point is 00:53:00 And so you can play that against them But it also can work to their advantage where the United States sometimes takes more of a deliberate group of people coming to a consensus where a government like Iran or China can move much quicker because of the autonomy and centralized control. And so the problem with centralized control is if you move in a direction very quickly and it's the wrong direction, now you've actually set yourself back a much further than you would in like a democratic process. So the democratic process is more resilient because we have a lot of voices that need to be heard,
Starting point is 00:53:34 but at the same time, it doesn't move very quick and efficiently, whereas the centralized government can. And so that's what I see when I look at those two places. Now, Iran, I don't see the Communist Party of China going anywhere, but I don't think the Iranian, the al-Atollah communi, I don't see him lasting very long, quite honestly. You know, crazy things have happened, but the Iranian people are very proud people, and they're connected technology-wise to the rest of the world, and they want to get the Persians of the day were probably the top of the food chain and they haven't been
Starting point is 00:54:09 there in a long time. And so I'd be surprised, but crazy or things have happened. But I see Iran going into a revolution in the next 30 years, ish before before the end of my time, I believe. And an exterior ish. Yeah, yeah. I'm not saying it'll happen anytime soon. I got you. I'm not saying it'll happen anytime soon. I've got you. I'm not saying it'll happen. But you can see the cracks in the foundation. And so this might take a couple of decades,
Starting point is 00:54:33 but it'll happen. So if I was a United States president, I would do everything to stay out of my own way. Because as I studied that model, that model is destined for implosion on its own. And the worst thing America can do, because oftentimes when you attack a system, you unify the system. I mean, you saw it in the United States in 9-11, you can see it in Iraq.
Starting point is 00:54:53 So if you attack the system, you unify the system. And so I would do everything I could not to unify the Iranian system, because that thing's headed the implosion on its own. If your enemy is making a strategic mistake, don't interrupt them. That's right. That's old school, Sun Su. Yeah. Very interesting in the concept of 30 years Iran. So China, but on the flip side, you said China, they're going to be around for a while. I agree. Yeah, and I think China is continuing to get stronger. I've read a lot of things about how it's always shell game and they're going to employ it, but I'm not sure I agree with it. I think
Starting point is 00:55:22 a lot of things about how it's all a shell game and they're gonna include, but I'm not sure I agree with it. I think just the strength of their population and some of the shortcuts that they're able to take right now, that we don't take based on a set of morals, whether that be right or wrong, they're accelerating in a much faster pace. They're accelerating in a much faster pace.
Starting point is 00:55:50 How wild it is that they're becoming allies, because China signed a $400 billion, 25-year deal with Iran, and for them to unify that some people say it makes it even tougher for a revolution to happen sooner because they got the big guys on the other side defending them, backing them up. I think the alliance between Russia, Iran, and China is an alliance of weakness. So mostly when you get into an alliance with someone, it's because you see the world
Starting point is 00:56:13 through the same eyes and you stand for the same principles and values. That's not the case with Iran, China, and Russia. The reason they are aligned is because they got no one else to align to. And so when I look at that alliance, are they all powerhouses in their own right and does that, is that relevant? Yes. But at the same time, you know, China doesn't want to be aligned. I ran, they just don't have anyone else they can align to. Do you think it's a sign of weakness?
Starting point is 00:56:36 I do. I do, absolutely do. Unpack that a little bit more. I think it's like, if I'm on a base level, if I'm on a playground and one kid gets all the other kids to follow his lead. And so I try to make friends with like two other kids that maybe are not part of the big group just because that's what's left.
Starting point is 00:57:00 I mean, China doesn't get to pick its allies right now, right? Iran doesn't get to pick its allies because of just their behavior. And so, you know, do they add value by aligning to the other outcasts? Sure, but to me, it's, it's symptomatic of not having a lot of choices. Right. It's almost like they don't, they don't have any friends. That's right. So it's like, you have no friends. You're gonna hang out with the two other guys that have no friends. Exactly. Exactly. No one else wants to hang out.
Starting point is 00:57:24 Like you're breaking it down to a playground. And exactly what it is. But he quite honestly, even then, that might even hurt you a little bit too, because now you've aligned yourself with Iran, right? And we can talk about the injustices of Iran for a while. Same thing with Russia. So, it doesn't matter, do they get some strength and value by, you know, selling arms or importing and exporting? Yes, absolutely. They do. But on the long term, is it helping them? I'm
Starting point is 00:57:51 not convinced. You're talking about, you know, pariahs on the world stage. But here's a question coming together. If that's the case, then who is in your opinion, the number one threat to US, if you're saying it's a sign of weakness between Russia, China and Iran, then who is US's number one enemy outside of internal? No, it is China, no doubt, no doubt. But I, you know, I stand by that their alliance isn't, it's something based on what they had available, right? So is that a strength of theirs?
Starting point is 00:58:19 I don't know. Let's transition into a different topic. If you can pull up that article, I'm, you know, it's a topic we haven't really reacted to and how to conversation about yet You guys obviously heard this Alex Jones order to pay nine hundred sixty five million dollars For the Sandy Hook lies until the political right-hers movement from its ranks None of this ends Senator Chris Murphy Senator Chris Murphy, 965, and the way they came up with this number is to say that he used Sandy Hook to make a lot of money for himself.
Starting point is 00:58:51 Should the families or the judges ordering him to pay $965 million, this can go to anybody. When you first heard this number, I mean, I understood some number was going to come out, but when you heard this number, 965, what was the initial reaction? That's a lot of money. I think so as well. That's a lot of money. Tom, what was your reaction when you saw this? I think the verdict there in the penalty basis, political grandstanding. Basically, what they're saying is is whoever you are, you know, and let's set it, set Alex's sins aside. But they're saying is whoever you are, if we don't like you, and you stand up to the scrutiny and you lose in this forum, we're going to take everything from you.
Starting point is 00:59:38 That's the message that's being played out here. Set aside the things that Alex did well, Alex didn't do well, the people that believe Alex, the people that don't set aside all that. This is a political message that says, we now have a precedent, and if we don't like you, and we can take you to the mat and court, we will take everything from you. I mean, for me, this comes down to everything that's kind of been in the political circles
Starting point is 01:00:06 for the last five, 10 years is what's the truth and what's just fake news. And this is as fake news is it's gets as far as Alex Jones and the Sandy Hook lie. And he is paying the ultimate price for a massive, massive to be blunt, like horrible shitty lie. And I zero percent support Alex Jones in this arena on this. With that being said, again, not a fan of Alex Jones, what he did is disgusting, but that doesn't mean
Starting point is 01:00:37 that other things he says are now untrue, right? Like you're gonna have to kind of separate this horrible lie that he's gonna have to pay the price for forever, billion dollars almost, and then he does have other things he has to say which may or may not be true or false. I don't know, but this was a very, very bad lie and he's paying the price for it. There's been a lot of giant verdicts like this in history that no one believes that pennies are ever going to be transferred.
Starting point is 01:01:06 You know, yeah, I'm sure he doesn't have 965. It's a completely different thing, but this is this OJ lost the civil, the civil suit and you know, even pointing off his husband trophy and all now that's much different. I mean, a crime was committed there. He lost that suit. But you know, the goldmins never got back tens of millions of dollars for their legal fees and everything else in the loss of their daughter. She knows sometimes when when you go ahead, you're going to say something.
Starting point is 01:01:31 I was going to say random notes. So Alex Jones and myself connection. We were just both on the best seller list. So when I was number six, like USA today and Wall Street Journal, a couple weeks back. And I looked on it, Alex Jones had, I think, number one book, number two book at that time. He needs to sell a billion copies. Yeah, he does.
Starting point is 01:01:51 So, he needs to sell a bottom bill. So, what are the bibles ever sold to pay this? In terms of pure money, what happens with, does he ever gonna pay this? Does he bankrupt? How does this work follow the money? No idea first of all this is this is I
Starting point is 01:02:11 Have some thoughts on this and this is what my thoughts are you know how sometimes Somebody you hate which this is on a list of a person that a lot of people hate I mean this this guy's hated by the people on the left. Many liberals cannot stand this guy and they're glad. He got this and there are people that think this wasn't enough. There's some that would like to see this guy go to jail and spend time in jail for the rest of his life. Many people can't stand this guy.
Starting point is 01:02:38 Having said that, there are a lot of people right now that you know they're sitting on what they're thinking. They're sitting there saying Should I told a lot of lies at CNN? Oh my god, what is this all about? I mean believe me I can't stand this guy, but dude a hundred nine hundred sixty five million Are you out of your mind like you know when the Me Too movement came out and in Hollywood first person got the Me Too movement You all of a sudden saw a lot of players, a lot of big names, or like, let me not attend the next party.
Starting point is 01:03:08 And those pictures that were taken with me at a party with this guy named, you know, what's his name? Epstein, Epstein, whatever the guy's name is. I wouldn't have been to have never been with that guy anywhere, right? So the moral of the story is the final. One, how they came out with the number, they're claiming he made this amount of body. Okay fine.
Starting point is 01:03:28 Number two, if the standard is now that a person who's got opinions lies, you sue them. Well, let me tell you, there's a lot of people in media that are about to get sued heavily by a lot of families that were affected by things like this. And it ain't going to be pretty. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying you're defending what he said or what he didn't say. That's not my position. My position is the following. Remington got sued last year for $73 million that they paid. You know for what? For somebody else using a remington gun to kill somebody they loved and the family got $73 million. I don't know if you guys saw this or not. Sandiuk family settled for $73 million with gunmaker Remington. What did Remington do wrong?
Starting point is 01:04:10 But here's the other part. If you go a little bit deeper, if you go a little lower so we can read the article, can you zoom in a little bit more? So the family's at nine victims, Sandiuk family's on the show now. Tuzi have agreed to $73 million out of settlement lawsuit. The model maker rifle used to kill the okay of a lawsuit against the maker of the rifle Used to kill 21st graders and six educators in 2012, okay? The case was watched closely by gun control advocates and gun rights supporters and manufacturers because of its potential to Provide a roadmap for victims of other shootings to sofar-run makers, this has got nothing to do with guns and my eyes.
Starting point is 01:04:46 This has got nothing to do with guns and my eyes. Can you do me a favor? Can you go pull up how many people got killed by car accident last year? How many people died from a car accident last year? So, doesn't this set the precedent for somebody to be able to sue a carmaker to say, my loved one died by the car that you made. So you made, but what do
Starting point is 01:05:09 you mean? I didn't drive it. I understand, but you made this Ford focus. You made this Tesla. It's like, it's like, wakusha, uh, Wisconsin, the guy drove the Ford through the parade. So now you're making the case, you could go to Ford because this guy, because, yes, the explorer through the parade. That's what they wanted to avoid here the reason remington settles for seventy three million dollars which i i can pretty much i'm gonna go out on i i guess here if they're corporate insurance paid that right to get the settlement they say listen we'll drop the suit and settle but your mind insurance company you got to pay the seventy three they're like done here's what we don't want we don't want the legal precedent. There's no precedent here. There's a precedent settlement
Starting point is 01:05:49 But there's no legal binding precedent, do you see? So there is no court case to go back to as a as a hard legal precedent That is a disaster if you're a gunmaker or a carmaker or anybody that uses something So Remington I think think used insurance money here, said, let's get to seeing other headlines. Let's finish this thing up and let's get out. What's the alternative if they don't? Say they say, we're not going to do it. They go all the way in.
Starting point is 01:06:13 They have a risk of a crazy liberal jury, you know, handing down a legal precedent. And then basically it becomes just like those class action asbestos lawsuits. Buckle up. Everybody was ever nearly, you see the asbestos ads that are on everywhere on new shows from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m.? I don't know.
Starting point is 01:06:32 I don't know. Once you have a legal precedent, that's what you get. I get that. I get that. But you know what happened with Candace Owens yesterday with her documentary that came out that you hear about, does that happen that George Floyd's family, they're considering suing them for the Black Lives Matter documentary that she made, right?
Starting point is 01:06:49 They click on that story, right? They're trending news. So George Floyd's family feels betrayed by Kanye West as they considered suing rapper and Candace Owens. After Kanye West falsely claimed George Floyd died from fentanyl and not an officer's neon as neck, the family's lawyer says by the end of the week, we'll have at least an idea of what claims are viable,
Starting point is 01:07:11 go a little lower, go a little lower. So now, in attorney for the family, General General General General General, kind of 46 year old, attorney Lee Merritt confirms to Rolling Stone that the fallout family is considering pursuing legal case against a rapper and say that he is also looking into whether ultra-right wing ponder Candace
Starting point is 01:07:27 owns could be held liable as well since West has plucked a debunked claim over her new daily wire produced documentary, The Greatest Liver Soul. This is the whole BLM thing. And while merit acknowledges that there's no real grounds to pursue the defamation claim on behalf of the deceased person, he says, the near one billion dollar judgment that Sandeuk parents, there you go, bingo.
Starting point is 01:07:47 That Sandeuk parents won against info wars, Alex Jones, Fred and Christopher Sierze to do. Presents a possible pathway for legal recourse. But not a decision precedent. I understand that, but Tom, 965, 73 million. This could be the new thing that people are going to see this. I agree. Go there and just get a settlement.
Starting point is 01:08:10 They will most likely settle with you because they don't want to drag anything out. Daily wire has the kind of legal liability insurance that Remington has. And I also hope or you said you hope. I doubt it because the, remember the insurance is always the pocket you after. Well, and let's not forget that George Floyd had enough fentanyl in a system to kill a horse. So they don't have a case here. He did have enough.
Starting point is 01:08:35 There were two different autopsies done on George Floyd, one of which said he died of a drug overdose, the second one said he died of a knee on the neck, and let's not forget there was a nine minute tape of the knee on the neck. There was nine minutes before that of George Floyd walking around. You could tell he was under the influence of drugs. You could tell all these things. So this is not an apples to apples comparison. Daily wire could actually make a case here.
Starting point is 01:08:53 I doubt they would lose this. But you're, or settle. I understand what you're saying. So I know some, Jones provides the precedent for them to go after. All I'm saying is people are looking at this and they're like, oh my God, let me go get some money. There to go out there. All I'm saying is people are looking at this and they're like, oh my God, let me go get some money.
Starting point is 01:09:08 There's free money there. Let me go through this guy. This is becoming, you know, a for folks who, I remember one time I was at an event, George will was speaking and George will, this is at Miramar Hotel, San Monica, 2000 and I'll give you the date, exact date. March 20, something of 2009. And he gets up and he says, do you know why these hook, you know, fishing hook companies, you know how they sell the hook and why they have to put a warning sign on it now? Because a parent sued one of the companies saying, you didn't put a sign
Starting point is 01:09:40 on it, you shouldn't swallow, my kid swallowed it. And it heard this bell, so they sued the company. He says, do you know why so many parks in America are being shut down because lawyers go sit there and watch a kid fall and break their hands and they're soon to city and they're getting money out of it because cities are settling.
Starting point is 01:09:55 So they're saying, hey, get rid of the parks, we're getting too many of these losses, so kids are now obesity is going higher. These types of lawyers many times ruin a lot of different good things. So you have to go back to the same thing with McDonald's Hot Coffee Case. I'm not comfortable with this, man. I'm not comfortable with this.
Starting point is 01:10:13 I think a lot of people are just so happy and they're litigious and they're going to look at going after a lot of different people. And many are going to settle because they have the pockets, but Alex Jones does not have 965 million. So I got a point on this. So in my ordeal, I had some media, some publications in my book that ran not only, you know, we hate Stuart Scheller or their opinions, but like factually untrue things, right? And so I actually looked into a defamation suit and I was told that it would be very hard to prove
Starting point is 01:10:46 because I was considered a public figure. And so once I make the videos, and I'm a public figure, I go into a different class of legality. So when you think of Sandman, that kid with the Trump hat, or you think of Kyle Rittenhouse, they're private citizens.
Starting point is 01:11:05 So when they sue these people, it's different than if Stuart Scheller were to sue them. And the lawsuit, I've talked to three different lawyers, the lawsuit, all three of them brought up with Sarah Palin suing some newspaper. I can't remember if it was the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal, but she sued them because that paper alleged
Starting point is 01:11:24 that she had something to do with the school shooting, and she lost because she was considered a public figure. And so when you're talking about these, yep. So when you, that case right there, said a lot of precedent that like, if someone named Stuart Sheller has a YouTube video and it gets a million views, and then newspapers run factually untrue things,
Starting point is 01:11:44 the lawyer's advice to me is you're probably not going to win because you're a public figure. Go look at Sarah Palin. And so you've got to kind of differentiate the cases here. Sandy Hook parents are considered individual people. They're not considered public figures, whereas Alex Jones is a public figure. So Alex Jones going to sue someone because he got his feelings hurt. It would be a different level of legality that he would have to get now where I don't
Starting point is 01:12:07 know where it stands. George Floyd, you know, is he a public figure or is his family a public figure? I don't know the answer to that question, but there is a delineation there. There's also the media has given the the malice defense. You know, if there's absence of malice, hey, we don't we don't hate Lieutenant former Lieutenant Colonel Scourge Sheller. We were just reporting the news. And the best facts to the best of our ability, that was the news of the day. We were reporting it. And so that's referred to as the absence
Starting point is 01:12:35 of malice defense. I mean, they compared me to Hitler in one of the, you know, I served my country for 17 years. I mean, some of the stuff they said, they, and that's where the malice line crosses. So when you make metaphors that are inflammatory versus just reporting it and then they hide behind Well, you're a public figure. That's right. But there is a line there that they can't cross even the media can't cross Even the media can't cross What happened the last six years would put a lot of these platforms and media companies they're talking about. It's got to be big enough, it's got to be stark enough and you have to have enough resources that you can take it all the way.
Starting point is 01:13:11 Here's a question. Here's a question. When has a public figure won a lawsuit against a news publication? When's the last time that happened? I can't even think of one, right? And so maybe a viewer can in the comment section drop that, but I would like to know, because quite honestly, the media has, it doesn't necessarily always report misinformation. Sometimes they just report the information that they want. But when they say factually untrue things, like, how are
Starting point is 01:13:42 we holding them accountable? Then that's where, you know, I really started getting frustrated through my ordeal because I mentioned a marine officer that legally can't speak in the media because he's under a gag order and the media getting to say all sorts of things. Some of them factually untrue. Like, there should be some type of legal records
Starting point is 01:13:59 for that. When we're talking 965 million, you know what I mean? And then here I am and I'm not able to sue anyone because I'm considered a public figure Seems weird. You say the last time that a public figure One one a lawsuit against a news public issue first thing that comes to mind is that whole gocker Peter Teal Hulk Hogan Whatever that whole thing was didn't I need to know that it wasn't that a thing. Yep, and It wasn't a lawsuit, but the Bush administration took Dan
Starting point is 01:14:30 rather to the map and he got fired. Yeah. The president, I think, has a little power though. I don't know. No, no. Correct. Correct. But the point is it's right.
Starting point is 01:14:42 It happens, but it's rare. And if a news media organization just says, well, we're just reporting the news, then they are completely unassailable. I mean, you're not going to be able to knock that over. You know, but when you've got what Gauker did with Hogan, if you're willing to go long enough and pay for it, you can go get it done, but it's rare and it's hard. I don't know. This is, it's gonna be, the ripple effects of this to see who's gonna sue who next
Starting point is 01:15:16 will be very, very interesting to see. I mean, look how quickly they say they're going after Kanye and Candace Owens because of what happened here with Alex Jones. You're gonna see a lot more of these, but you're also gonna see Ritten're going after Kanye and Candace Owens because of what happened here with Alex Jones. You're gonna see a lot more of these, but you're also gonna see Rittenhouse going after you know a whoopee would whoopee said you're gonna see a lot of it on both sides. And just like the Me Too movement when it first came out everybody was going after everybody. Eventually everybody said, guys listen, like I got you, not everything is this.
Starting point is 01:15:42 I don't know how far wrong this is gonna go though. Where they're gonna be targeting people. Lawyers will only take cases like this. Some sensational basis, if there's a pocket to settle with, they don't wanna go all the way at the court. They wanna go to a pocket they settle with. And that's where they're going. We had a presidential candidate. I just blanked on his name, North Carolina, John.
Starting point is 01:16:06 Who had the girlfriend and... John Edwards? Yeah, he was a PI attorney. That's what he did before he got into politics. He was a PI attorney and he talked about it. What was it? The S. Quarer interview? He said, listen, there's got to be insurance, you know, personal injury and these grand claims, there has to be an insurance company pocket to go after because that typical company or person has no resources to go after. This is another reason why if you're wise,
Starting point is 01:16:35 you get into the insurance business. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no insurance policy, get an auto insurance policy, get a cell phone insurance policy. This is how insurance companies make money. Believe it or not, like, it just validates the importance of the insurance industry. And drive down any American highway. And who do you see? Big, you know, smiling face, big rig accident, big rig accident. They're going after the oil company. That, that was their truck. They're going after Walmart. They're going after the oil company that that was their truck they're going after walmart they're going after whoever commissioned or own that big rig truck that caused your accident that's what all those billboards are pretty well those premiums okay so town
Starting point is 01:17:13 all article here obama tells democrats to get over their obsession with trump the thing that i i think sometimes we seem to make a mistake on is his behavior can be so outrageous and now folks who try to copy him and his outrageous behavior are getting a lot of attention. Obama said referring to mega supporters. And so we join that game and we spent enormous amount of time and energy resources pointing out the labeling. The latest crazy thing that he said or how rude or mean of these Republican candidates
Starting point is 01:17:39 behaved. That's probably not something that in the minds of most voters overrides their basic interests can I pay the rent? What are the gas prices? What are gas prices? How am I dealing with child care? Obama continued. So, what's the reason why Obama is now saying this today? Is it because midterms is less than a few weeks away?
Starting point is 01:17:58 Is it because, you know, you know, they're, he's just kind of watching people seeing how they're losing control and he's worried how bad things are going to be. Why do you think he made the comments that he made? Can I ask you a question for you? What do you think that the Biden White House thought about these comments? No, we don't want to talk about the economy. What are you doing? Do you think the Biden White House and the strategist appreciate the ex-president saying? Not only that, but he but saying it when he say
Starting point is 01:18:25 do you think maybe deep down inside he wants Biden to break his record you know what his record is right most seats flipped 61 he's like dude that's not a record I want to hold it's like having the most strikeouts in the season it's like like man I want you to take that strikeout record away from me all I'm looking for Biden is for you to flip 62 okay to lose 62 and I'm happy well I don't have to have that record but why do you think you made the comments that he made from me, all I'm looking for Biden is for you to flip 62. Okay, it's to lose 62 and I'm happy, well, I don't have to have that record. But why do you think you made the comments that he made today? Three weeks out, two weeks out.
Starting point is 01:18:51 Did he use Trump by name? Did he actually, did he say Trump? I don't know. That's not Obama style. He might allude to somebody. I don't know if he actually used Trump's name. Obviously, we know who he's referencing is when you use terms like outrageous and crazy root
Starting point is 01:19:04 in mean, we know who he's talking about. you use terms like outrageous and crazy root in mean We know who he's talking about However, I don't know if he actually addressed Trump what's your point though, but I do have a I'm wondering if he uses No, he didn't he didn't use his name. So that's check one number two I kind of agree with Obama here about the time and the energy Jesus and I felt victim to this how much time and energy you spent of following up with the hell Trump said that day or that week or that tweet. Jesus took a lot of energy and time for everybody whether you're defending him
Starting point is 01:19:35 and no that's not what he meant and dear you're misinterpreting what he said and good people on both like time and energy and you're one of the people that were on the other side of the MAGA, you know, side of things, just the obsession that you paid attention to, all the ridiculous things that you lost, nice of sleep over this man. And I know there are not a ton of amazing things that you can say about Biden,
Starting point is 01:19:59 but one of those things is he's not making ridiculous news that you can actually move on with your life and spend your time and energy on things that you can control, your own money, your own pocketbook, your kitchen table, issues, your family, your health. So everything comes with a pro and a con, everything's binary, but I do agree that people spend a lot of time and energy focusing on Trump. Do you have any thoughts on this, or? I just think Trump was the counter-swing of Obama. So it's always, it's always, rings false to me when Obama is talking about Trump.
Starting point is 01:20:33 Because quite honestly, I think Obama's policies led to Trump in a lot of ways. So, yeah. We're on the same page. I think he gave birth to Trump. He did. That's simple. Yeah, I think Bush gave birth to Obama. I think Obama gave birth to Trump. Yeah, I've's simple. Yeah, I think Bush gave birth to a birth to Obama. I think Obama gave birth to Trump. I've got an analogy doing some journal and I was thinking about
Starting point is 01:20:50 this. America's political system in a lot of ways is like, you know, a pendulum is one of those things we take, a ball goes and then it slowly stabilizes. Or the American democracy see was a pendulum that started in the middle and is like slowly swung one way and then it goes back the other way. And like we're at a place now where it's like violently swinging from side to side. And you know, that is the Obama Trump swing and you know, back to Biden.
Starting point is 01:21:16 It's just, I'm hoping we can get some leadership that can stabilize it and not have these violent swings. Fully agree. We've used that pendulum analogy. Yeah, ton of times. And I mean, how do you go from Obama to Trump to all the way back to Obama's number two, Biden, it just because, it's crazy.
Starting point is 01:21:35 Consulate pendulum swinging. And I've said it before, I said it again. I would love whether to Santhus, whether it's any, anyone else, get to a somehow a 60% approval rating. Every our last presidents have been hovering below 50 for the better part of five, 10 years now, if not longer. And we need a unifier, not a janitor.
Starting point is 01:21:56 I want to do a story. We got a surprise couple guests that are going to join us in Zoom from London, UK in a minute. And it's a very interesting guest that I'm actually really curious to know why they did what they did. But I'll tell you what that is here in a minute. But prior to going there, so a story here, average American is losing $34,000 and everything else on Biden's watch.
Starting point is 01:22:16 We have calculated over the past 20 months the rise in consumer prices over wages means that the average family in America has lost nearly $6,000 in purchasing power that negative returns don't even take account of inflation. Don't doing so adds roughly another 13% or so to these stock losses.
Starting point is 01:22:33 Inflation also hurts returns from bonds, which typically accounts to between 20% to 40% of retirement funds. Tied all together and we calculated since the start of this year, 401k plans have suffered $2.1 trillion. The average 401k plan has over $135,000 at the start of the year. Today, these assets have shrunk to $101,000. Wow. In other words, today, the average 401k is down $34,000 more than 25% and less than one year. Tom, thoughts? I think this just underlines how badly the middle class is getting crushed. And the media doesn't want to talk about it. Certainly administration doesn't want to talk about it. The reality is the media is getting crushed. Related to this, BFA announced their third quarter results on originations of home equity, mortgages, and credit cards. And home equity lines went from like 2.5 billion
Starting point is 01:23:27 of new home equity lines Q2 to 2.4, so it was down. But it's interesting, you know what the average FICO score for the new home equity lines was in Q3, 792. What? The average. Meaning only, the answer is only incredibly wealthy people that have got the Jews were able to get the home equity line it gets worse the
Starting point is 01:23:50 did you guys just hear what time what time just did you hear with Tom said or no the average person who got a he-logged their average credit credit score was 792 in Q3 and Q3 that's directly people with very good credit score that's not very good credit score that's's not very good credit score. That's perfection. Correct. It gets worse. Also, 16.5 billion of new mortgage originations
Starting point is 01:24:13 happen in Q2. 8.7 happened in Q3. So it's almost 50% down on mortgage originations. Here it comes. Average FICO, the mortgage originations. This is B of A. I double checked it. B of A announced us, 768 was a new mortgages in Q3. So the only people buying our house are people that are way up
Starting point is 01:24:33 and able to afford it. So I think you take those two pieces of information that only the people with juice are able to get helox and new loans and you take a look at all this. The middle class is getting crushed. And if you just look far enough, you're seeing the true depth of it. People aren't buying new houses, they're not able to get heat locks, and now they've lost all this power and they've also lost the retirement.
Starting point is 01:24:53 Middle class are getting crushed so badly. True scope of it is not really apparent. I don't know. I think this article is a little disingenuous, and I tell you why because I have a 401k all right and you know I'm 41 years old. I'm not retiring anytime soon. So let's say I have a half a million dollars in my 401k right now And it goes down from 500,000 to 400,000 Doesn't fucking matter. I'm not touching my 401k until I'm 70 years old anyway So it's almost irrelevant. It's like who cares?
Starting point is 01:25:22 until I'm 70 years old anyway. So it's almost irrelevant. It's like, who cares? However, who it does affect, so this is why I'm saying it's a little disingenuous, are seniors. We've heard recent stories about seniors or people that were going to retire now have to extend their career for another three to five years. They have to plan on that.
Starting point is 01:25:40 And then furthermore, we're seeing further stories that social security benefits are now being extended what 8.2% more than normal. So retirees, if they don't have a better plan in place, then they're the ones that are going to suffer. You know, the article specifically highlights the bond market. You know, it's no secret that when you're young, you should have 80% in stocks, 20% in bonds, or as you age 60% in stocks, 40% in bonds. But if you're 75 years old and you don't have 80% of your portfolio in bonds, what are you doing anyway? Here's a challenge, don't you go ahead. The challenge with that is, as a person who was a financial advisor for 20 plus years,
Starting point is 01:26:24 20 years, give or take Series 7, 66, 36, 31, 26, you take all this off. So I can sell futures, commodities, bonds, stocks, stocks, you know, options put, call annuities, life, all that stuff. I cannot tell you how many companies who people have their 401k's with, how few times the average 401k holder sits down to readjust and reallocate where their money is at. If the average, if a person is listening right now and you have a 401k with a company,
Starting point is 01:26:56 when is the last time the 401k specialist of your company came in sat down with you to tell you to reallocate it based on your age where you're at with the current economy. When's the last time that happened? You know how often that happens? It rarely happens. And if it happens, it's less than 1% at a time. So the average person is just sitting there saying, man, like, here's what happened the other day. Somebody's got money in their 401k. Pretty well known person's like, hey Pat, man, I haven't looked at my 401k for a while. Can you just take a look at it? This is a person that's made real money. I'm like, when's the last time you looked at it? Not in a long time. I'm like, seriously? And they're not young. How did they?
Starting point is 01:27:26 Late 50s, early 60s. They should be paying a close attention to it. But it's not that they should be. You know, it's the same story with most people should get annual physical stuff. Most people should get their teeth checked out. Most people, what most of us should do and what we do are two different things. Most boomers are now sitting there reallocating their forearms. They people, what most of us should do and what we do are two different things. Most boomers are now sitting there
Starting point is 01:27:48 reallocating their 401k's on time. Most people reallocated too late and they're gonna pay the price for it. So even though you're right, if you're a guy like you're like, I'm not retiring for another 25 years. Maybe you're retiring three years because your style is different.
Starting point is 01:28:03 But for the average person in their late 30s, early 40s is gonna go for a while, you know, people in their mid 50s, late 50s, early 60s, they're not sending the reallocating the retirement. They're being hit by. I'll add to that because we talked about the benefits of being the insurance industry of all benefit. And the number one thing, how I made all my money,
Starting point is 01:28:22 how is the concept of this annual review or policy review? Hey, you talked about a physical, hey, go to the doctor, once a year, go to the dentist, once a year, just go get an annual review, the whole concept is, you do it because you haven't, if you have insurance, or if you have a 401k, get an annual review.
Starting point is 01:28:37 See what's going on. And some advisors gonna tell you, bro, you're 65 years old, you're 75% in stocks, your asset allocation is out of whack You got to change that it's just an annual review But a lot of people don't even know about that concept, but you're a good agent though that you're doing annual reviews correct most Advisors for one K companies most of them are not
Starting point is 01:28:57 They sell agents and they sell it and they never come back a great agent who keeps getting referrals They keep doing annual reviews the clients not's not going to do an annual. But is that on the agent or is that on the client? Because we talk about personal responsibility. I'm going to say both. I'm going to, you're making your commission. Do your job. You're making your, the dentist sends me the card and says,
Starting point is 01:29:14 your clinic is in three months. True. Do you know how often I wake up in the morning thinking about cleaning my teeth? Like once I'm asking you, what cup's in it? You know what? Yeah, my teeth, clinics in three months. I'm counting it down. 90 days, 89 days.
Starting point is 01:29:25 Nobody freaking sits there. Somebody sends you that reminder, so I'm gonna go to the doctor. So, okay, anyways, I wanna give a quick shout out to our sponsors. Before we do so, I wanna tell you two stories we're gonna go through right after this. So, stick around, we're gonna talk about Kanye West,
Starting point is 01:29:37 how he just bought parlor, and we're gonna talk about what Bloomberg yesterday said that we're a hundred percent chance of going into recession next year. They didn't say 99.9 to leave a little bit out. They said a hundred percent, and I have a prediction on when I think they're going to announce recession. But let's get into our sponsor first.
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Starting point is 01:31:34 You can try it a free trial for 14 days at aura.com forward slash PBD. AuraAURA.com forward slash PBD. Patrick Bay-David once again Aura.com forward slash pbd patrick by david once again aura dot com forward slash pbd let's put the link below in the chat as well as in the description having said that kaniwest to buy right wing social media platform parlor owner says this is an insider story kai and this was all over social yesterday kani Kanye West has entered into a deal to buy Parlor Rhyping Social Media Service that builds itself as a free speech platform.
Starting point is 01:32:09 Its owner said Monday, Parliament Technologies announced a news saying that the deal would help create an un-cancelable ecosystem where all voices are welcome, West set in a world where conservative opinions are considered to be controversial. We have to make sure we have the right to freely express ourselves.
Starting point is 01:32:26 Parliament Technology CEO George Farmer said that the company would be honored to help him achieve his goals. West has recently locked out of his Twitter account after he posted saying that he would go death country on Jewish people. Tom, when you heard this news, what's the first thing you thought about? Well, Kanye needs a megaphone and no one's giving him one, so he's going to go buy one for himself, but I think he also does believe in, this is, hey, you know, you shouldn't be shut down for free speech, even though some of the things you've said is like, Kanye, there's free speech and then there's just
Starting point is 01:33:00 crazy dumb comments that just are just way over the top. But I think he's going out there trying to establish a megaphone so that people could be there. People have to remember what took parlor down wasn't, what took parlor down was a denial of access to infrastructure. They're server contracts were cut by Amazon. So I mean, when these things go up, the playbook now is pressure on the infrastructure side
Starting point is 01:33:31 and it just turns you off. So, you know, countdown, you know, can he buy this? Can he have a megaphone for himself? But as soon as he upsets somebody, they're going to come after it and it's just going to try to turn the servers off because that's a game. Or, Antikamau, the App Store, it's so easy. You know, you have the Apple app store, Google Android market, those two and infrastructure off there. Does anybody know who owns
Starting point is 01:33:52 Parler, like who George Farmer is? Do you know who he is? He's Candice Owen's husband. He owns what? He's the guy that makes a lot more sense now. Parlor. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, just like if you want to connect to that. Yeah. That's Candace Owens, husband right there. What do you think about this?
Starting point is 01:34:11 You think this is? I have a lot of friends that are big fans of Kanye West. And so, exactly like Tom said, I think Kanye West does some dumb things, but he's an entrepreneur. He is smart, and I do appreciate someone that pushes back on systems where it may not be a popular opinion, and he seems to do that pretty regularly. So, you know, some ways I sit back and say, you know, I just watched him do an interview with Tucker Carlson.
Starting point is 01:34:40 It was pretty good, you know. So he has moments where I think of like, quite honestly, brilliance, but then he has has moments where I think of like quite honestly brilliance But then he has other moments where it's just like man, I'm left scratching my head You're so funny You're so funny Came out of nowhere you scared a crap out of. Hey, really? Thank you, guys.
Starting point is 01:35:28 Yeah, absolutely. Let's go, man. Oh, oh, mom. Winner at 60. Mom, let's see. Yeah. I'm glad. Hey, dude, the open end of the Buzuka toward the enemy.
Starting point is 01:35:42 Just. Make a wish. Let's go, man. Open ended the blue duke toward the enemy You guys are awesome Did with somebody pissed that time He was not happy with time Thank you, babe. Love your Tyler. No, we didn't say. There we go. Hi, Pink. It's fine.
Starting point is 01:36:11 Thanks, guys. Thank you guys afterwards. Okay, babe. Thank you. Vinnie or Crazy. He came in at a time. like something actually happened the time it was Right in the middle of us talking about It's a con. Yeah, I can't yeah, I mean we are we still in birthday mode right now
Starting point is 01:36:36 You can you can what happened? Okay, that door the average person shouldn't close that door. Well, okay, go for it I want me just kind of do one thing real quick. And I played dumb that I didn't know today was your birthday, but I actually did. Oh, really? Adam's got a... I got PBD a gift right here.
Starting point is 01:36:55 Okay. There's gonna be some humor involved. There's also gonna be a nice... It's just actually something you're very good at. No, well, let me, I wrote something down, so let me get this. Oh, sounds, you're insuring. What I got is a gift is a down payment.
Starting point is 01:37:12 Okay, you are now currently 44 years of college. You know, I am currently 42. We have a bet or an agreement that if I get married by 44, I get married for free in your backyard, save that money. I paid a whole thing. OK. At the rate that I'm going right now, life's good. I don't see myself getting married.
Starting point is 01:37:35 I'm probably going to have to buy you a suit. Sure. Because that's our end of the agreement. Yes. You never know what could happen. But in the spirit of marriage and wife and kids, I did get you a down payment of, it's not the full suit, but there's some items in there that you could wear under the suit.
Starting point is 01:37:54 Oh, you're so amazing. So, are you wearing shirts under there? Yes. Some Calvin shirt. You're like my dad. You're like my dad bought me for my birthday this morning is underwear. Yeah. Well, I was thinking about underwear that'd be a little extreme.
Starting point is 01:38:04 I don't think you're ready for that. I don't know if we're there yet. But here's some shirts, some undershirts. You had a good Delta pair, a red bow tie that you could wear potentially. Oh, okay. I have a little papillon. A little papillon.
Starting point is 01:38:16 You also have a black tie to wear potentially with the suit, Calvin Klein. I like it. I like it. I went for a Salvatore Faragamo, but on Lincoln Road, apparently, they don't have that. That's a handkerchief. You put it. So this is a down payment for the suit.
Starting point is 01:38:30 For the suit in two years that I'll likely have to buy. So with that being said, I have a, you're 44. Yes. It's a big deal. So marriage, I don't know where I'm at with that, but I do respect the fact that you're a family man. And I think, you know, as family man here, kids is an amazing thing. So I think the example that you've set with the kids, the four kids you have, and Jen,
Starting point is 01:38:57 how you treat Jen and Melva and your dad and how you open your house for everyone, that's amazing. And I think everyone really truly appreciates that. But more important than that, you know, is the fact that you're a leader, you're our leader. And you know, Shia LeBuff was one of your favorite actors. He says, and he was being interviewed by John Bernthal. Yeah, Craig podcast.
Starting point is 01:39:19 By the way, if there's ever a story of your life, movie, John Bernthel could be the guy. He's the guy. Okay, just putting that out there into the atmosphere, but he says that you become a man, you become a leader when you're responsible for other people. And that's so powerful because what makes a man? Is it, you go to war, does that make you a man?
Starting point is 01:39:39 Is that million dollars make you a man? Yeah. When you become responsible for all the people that makes you a man. And you're responsible for a lot of people. Everyone here at ValueTament, PHP, your family, so it's a family man amazing. I don't know if I'm gonna get there, but you do a spired leadership. And I'm gonna read you a quote. I asked you this morning if you know a rapper called Logic, right? Logic, if you're listening, huge fan, massive fan,
Starting point is 01:40:06 white boy, a rapper. He's a big rapper. So he has two songs, and this will be very quick. The first song was entitled, 44 bars, and the follow-up to that was called, 44 more. And I figured that very appropriate on your 44th birthday to kind of cite some of the lyrics of the song, and how, like, true it is to your life.
Starting point is 01:40:26 So without further ado, in the first song, Logic 44 Bar says, it ain't all about the money and the notoriety. It's all about the people making a difference in society, but don't get it twisted. This life I'm living is like a movie. The Godfather, the goodfellar, wielding and oozzy. One with the people got people wondering who is he, right? And then he goes on in 44 more and says, I've done made $20 million, right? But I don't need to flex to be acknowledged. At this point, it's common knowledge. All you haters have been abolished. You in the club throwing dollars, but I'm saving mine so my kids can go to college, right? And then he says, Oh, Lord, I'm a
Starting point is 01:41:01 champion. Know the name. And now they know the alias, P.B.D. That's for sure. Pat, you gave him 44. Now here's the 44. Yeah, that's a lot of man. I'm a man. I'm a man. 44.
Starting point is 01:41:15 I love it. I appreciate that. Of course, bro. Shout out to Logic under 44. Yes. Thank you. Thank you. That's awesome, man.
Starting point is 01:41:23 Appreciate you. Anyway, so there's no underwear there, but no my dad my dad got me Puma underwear You know this makes it 25 years straight that my dad for my birthday and Christmas gets me underwear I have so much under way from this guy and like he he comes this morning. He says you already know what I got you I'm like, okay, it's the typical Costco Kirkland underwear whatever Costco sells But this was an upgrade what was it first time in history in my life? I got Puma underwear from my dad I've never had Puma underwear. What was it? First time in history of my life, I got Puma underwear from my dad.
Starting point is 01:41:45 I've never had Puma underwear. I think it is Puma above Costco, or is Costco make some call? No, I don't hate it. I'm sorry. I'm on the above Costco. Poppa went out of his way. Poppa went out of his way.
Starting point is 01:41:56 But you stink the one year he doesn't get you underwear. You're gonna be so bummed out. You're saying, where's my underwear man? You're right though. I look forward to getting underwear for many, many're right, though. I look forward to getting underwear for many, many more years to come. I'm hoping to get underwear every year. There's probably a deeper story there. He changed your diapers in Iran. Right. And now he's living in your house in your estate, your complex here in Fort Lauderdale. So, but he, back to the roots,
Starting point is 01:42:21 don't forget, of always giving you the underwear. It was so funny this morning, we're, yesterday my daughter's so funny, she's like, she comes this morning, she says, Daddy, don't tell anybody, but we have a surprise birthday cake in presence for you downstairs, but it's a surprise birthday cake, but don't tell mommy, I told you. That's not the same thing.
Starting point is 01:42:39 She's like, we have a surprise waiting for you downstairs, everyone's waiting, and she's trying to hide it. She can. So Santa cannot hide it. We've learned that Santa is not to be trusted. It's about the surprise. She's funny. She is funny.
Starting point is 01:42:52 How does it feel to be 44 people are shocked that you're only a couple years older than me and my friend. Like my friends are like, what? Pat is only two years older than us. Like this is insane. Like everything you've like, what? Pat is only two years older than us, like this is insane. Like everything you've accomplished, your age, what you've built, 44, it's not exactly young, but it's not old at all.
Starting point is 01:43:12 How do you process being this age now? I mean, the only thing I woke up today, Jennifer gave me a pamphlet that tells you what happened in 1978. So I learned some funny things. So one, transformers, you know that one scene where it's shy, lbuff, and the actress, what's the actress that's not with M.K.
Starting point is 01:43:31 Megan Foxx, and they're in that yellow car, and she's trying to fix it. And the car's not turning on, she says, I'm gonna walk back. So what's the song that plays? Afterwards, when the car turns on, it goes against the girl. Can you remember the song? It's by a band called a band called Player.
Starting point is 01:43:45 From 1977, baby come back. Right, so baby come back is 1978. It showed the average salary, who won MVP, who won the World Series, the Yankees, won the World Series. You know, all these different things about 1970. Number 44 was what, Reggie Jackson, you have Jim Brown, all these other guys.
Starting point is 01:44:03 But to me, it's just another number. And you know, everybody asked, are we doing a birthday this year? I said, when I do one this year, we're gonna do one next year, and then there's gonna be a break, and then we're gonna do the 51. 45.
Starting point is 01:44:12 And the 50th one is gonna be, it's gonna be, it's gonna be, it's gonna be legit, the 50th one. We're gonna have a good time at the 50th. I don't know if you know this, I wear it on my wrist, but. Future looks bright, PVD. It's just a big, new body.
Starting point is 01:44:24 It's just a big ending. Anyways, okay, PVD. It's just the big, you know what I mean? It's just the beginning. Anyways, okay, he had no clue what's going on. Yeah, that's not the problem. It's too obvious. I just went from Afghanistan to Kahn and I'm good. But I do want to say this, if you're able to rewind at the end of the podcast and go watch one of our home office employees really is upset at Tom
Starting point is 01:44:41 because he just aimed it at his face. It wasn't like directly that way. It's a pot. Tom's trying to get the competing off of him. I watched it happen to you. I watched his face. Who was it? Who was it?
Starting point is 01:44:54 I actually really was a Robert or who wasn't it? Did that was it? I don't want your Robert. Who was it? I got to go back and say it. I never, never tribute to Malas that which can be adequately explained. I don't know. I was trying to give you an idea of what happened with Alex.
Starting point is 01:45:07 I'm thinking like, this is an opportunity for you to file for in the dark. Now, this is like one of those, this is like one of those alkyd of fail videos for there. The guy's holding the bazooka the wrong way when he does a test firing. That's actually, you know, and he takes out the back half of the little, the little training camp. And then they're all freaking out. Stu has zero glitter on him, confetti.
Starting point is 01:45:25 P and we're good, Pat and I, you're showered in confetti. Someone have a good time. You're gonna go home today and Kim's gonna say, can I ask you why you have so much glitter on? You have to explain. You're gonna say, honey, watch the podcast. Watch the podcast. Where have you been, hun?
Starting point is 01:45:40 Yeah. Oh, I'm gonna make your reign in here. So, okay, so let's go into, we got 10 more minutes to wrap up a couple stories before we finish off I we okay, so let's go into the recession story if you want to go into the Bloomberg one with the last 10 minutes that we got so This article this story comes out yesterday and everyone's talking about a forecast for US recession within a year hits 100% in blow to Biden and Bloomberg is part of his camp that they went out of their way trying to help Biden win elections.
Starting point is 01:46:08 So this is not a good look when you're seeing a number like this. Bloomberg economics sees near certainty downturn will start tightening conditions inflation, hawkish fed way on outlook, 100%. So if he can zoom in here to see what kind of numbers they have, the latest recession probability models by Bloom's economists Anna Wong and
Starting point is 01:46:27 Elisa Winger forecast a high recession probability across all time frames with the 12 month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100% up from 65% from the for the comparable period in the previous update. Do they have any reasons how they came up with the model Bloomberg surveys 40 42 economists predict the probability next one is about 50% earlier. I mean the numbers just don't look good no matter where you look at the numbers don't look good. You're you're now finally hearing. Realtors in Texas is lower meaning people are leaving the
Starting point is 01:47:02 industry. More Gage is getting hit hardcore rates are going to continue to go up. Powell saying they're going to keep increasing rates until they hit 2% inflation. Next year you're going to feel the unemployment happening in 2023. My prediction is with that part, but I think recession will be full on recession. My opinion is November 8th Wednesday of this year. Okay. Is it November 8th or November 9th? What is the November 7th is midterm election? Yes. Eighth is the election. It's going to be November 9th Wednesday, this one they're going to announce recession. Till then, we're not in recession right now according to the experts in the US government.
Starting point is 01:47:41 That's the thing, right? Is there just going to change the definition again? It doesn't matter how many times we hit. We're already in a recession, but they're just gonna change the definition. They're gonna go to websters and have websters reprint all new dictionaries. This is not a good look though. Did you see the Gallup poll that came out? Did you see the Gallup poll that came out about
Starting point is 01:48:00 Gallup's been doing this poll for the last eight years since 1940, okay? And the whole poll is about a better job handling problem you think, most important. Who Republicans or Democrats do you trust can do a better job handling problems today? And this is Gallup. The same Fox, the same CNN, okay? 48% said Republicans, 37% said Democrats today. And here's the crazy thing about this data. Since 1940, when they started doing this poll,
Starting point is 01:48:34 the widest margin they've ever had was 17 points in 1946. Truman was president, this is right after, you know, 1945. 1946, the American people went towards Republicans over Democrats 11 is the second largest since 1946 the highest since 1946 and again the same Fox This is not New York Post. This is not bribing. This is not sienna. This is not MSNBC This is Gallup so the American people are sitting there saying, listen, Biden, I'm sure your family loves you, but we kind of do for a different leader to run this country.
Starting point is 01:49:11 So what are your thoughts on when you hear this Bloomberg saying 100%. I would say there's also 100% chance at Michael Bloomberg's running for president in 24. And he's basically, you know, going to all one of these kind of stories go out and kind of help clear the decks. And he's sitting back there know, gonna all let me kind of stories go out and kind of help clear the decks And he's sitting back there with I can see Michael Bloomberg sitting there at the scotch 61 flips. I'm gonna make sure there's a And then I'm running in 24, baby. You really think he's running? Well, I mean you could connect the dots and I'm being kind of cynical and funny
Starting point is 01:49:42 But I'm connecting the dots. But I'll go back to something I said several podcasts ago. Remember I said that I thought that liberal media were kind of keeping themselves on a leash, but they were slowly rolling now on Biden. And they're just waiting for when the DNC, because it's exactly the process you talked about for individual candidates for Congress, that there's also a date that when the DNC has the thunder money available to the national presidential candidates, and there will only be about four or six of them to get access to that money.
Starting point is 01:50:16 And you know Governor California desperately wants to be put on the short list so we can get access to it. And I just think that what's happening with the media is some of the liberal media is coming clean and they're truthfully reporting things that are out there and it's not favorable to the president, but the gloves are off and they were trying to hold back a little bit, help the president, but I think the gloves are off in the form of,
Starting point is 01:50:38 hey, we're just gonna say what it is. And the reason you can say it's a 100% chance for an recession is because I believe, I think you believe, we're already there. Yeah. Take a look at here. Look, look at what's happening these home things. So, real leaders have jobs. I don't think so. The people that are in low and origination of jobs, I don't think so. I think there's a whole section of financial services industry that's unemployed
Starting point is 01:51:01 or under employed right now. So when you take a look at all that, you're telling me that we're not already in the original accepted definition of a recession right now. And I think their media's just coming out and saying it. They're coming out and saying it. First Obama says, listen, this woke stuff's not working. Then Bloomberg says, all in the same week, do you think there was a meeting saying, guys,
Starting point is 01:51:26 it's time for us to voices of the Democratic Party to say we're not with what Biden's doing? So they can come out and start their endorsement this week and next week. So some of the people that they're endorsing their voice has way to say, we don't support the woke decisions that's been happened the last 24 months or 18 months.
Starting point is 01:51:42 We need to go back to what Dems used to do. The timing of what Bloomberg said, Obama said all at the same time, it's kind of weird to me. I agree with that. I agree with you. Do you think Obama's got friends that are in risky seats right now? 100%. Sure he does.
Starting point is 01:51:57 100%. How ugly things can be. It's to how ugly things can be on midterm. GOP is going to win the House. They're not going to win the Senate. And so that's how it's going to play out by my assessment. And I think when they win the House, they're going to pull some military generals up. The House will, because they'll have the ability
Starting point is 01:52:17 to hold committees and call some people, make some headlines. But ultimately, in terms of legislation, you still got the president that can be told, Senate will still be a slim majority, if not almost a coin toss when you add, you know, people that can vote against the party. And so really, we're gonna have two years
Starting point is 01:52:33 where it's really gonna come down to the 24 election. And so that's my assessment of it. You know, you look at races like Herschel Walker in Georgia, where I think a lot of people thought he was gonna win. I'm not convinced he's gonna win. I don't think Oz has a great chance in Pennsylvania either. I think that's another sentence. So weird one.
Starting point is 01:52:50 I know, I know. It is a weird one. What is, that's a very weird candidate. So, people want authenticity right now. So look at the Democrat. He's like this Philly guy with this big goatee. And then you got this dorky white boy, Dr. Oz. I mean, just on the surface,
Starting point is 01:53:05 without a deeper look at their policies, I can see why people, especially from the Pennsylvania area, would be veering toward authenticity. And then the Ohio race is much tighter than we thought it would be, and then the New Hampshire race is one where the Republicans are trying to steal one and we'll see. So those are really the four key races in the Senate and I guess we'll see how it plays out.
Starting point is 01:53:30 Ultimately, I think what you're saying is candidates matter, meaning like, 100% you know, Hershel Walker you thought that, yeah, and he'd have a chance, but Rafael Warren, I think he's gonna win that same, same as Oz. So if you use just generic polling like Pat referenced,
Starting point is 01:53:45 generic Republicans have a quite advantage. I think it went from three to 10% on independence and that's on a New York Times poll. I want to give you one last story here. Were you gonna go start? No, I'm just saying that, in the Senate, I agree with you because if you're gonna look at the actual candidates, forget about generic polling.
Starting point is 01:54:01 That's right. You're gonna go with the person who's a little more authentic. But by the way, that's a very weirdly authentic guy don't I mean I don't know if you've watched him interview no so yeah my caveat is I don't know anything about that about him but I'm just saying on the surface I think what the appeal is is that he's a filly guy that relates to you but I don't know anything about him. Very, very weird situation. So last story before we wrap up,
Starting point is 01:54:28 Nike co-founder Phil Knight declares war on Democrats in Oregon. Phil Knight said he will do anything to block Democrats from keeping their hold on Oregon's governor's seat. Knight 84 has poured cash into the campaigns of Democrats, Tina Koteck, opponents in Governor's race.
Starting point is 01:54:44 He helped to kickstart a campaign for Betsy Johnson, a former Democrat running as an independent, who's serving as a major supporter to Koteck Johnson's candidacy is given Republican Christina Drazen, the opportunity she needs in a liberal, electorate, no longer confident in the state, recent far-left policies, won the political cartoons after our legislative session had a person snorling
Starting point is 01:55:06 cocaine out of a mountain of white night set Saturday. It said, which of these is illegal in Oregon? And the answer was the plastics fraud. Yeah, I'll tell you one thing. Do you remember a couple of years ago, Oregon legalized or decriminalized all drugs. All drugs. That's the one state in the country where Whatever you want have at it and ironically what's illegal not the pound of cocaine the plastic straw that you can do the cocaine from It's very ironic. I think I think this is sort of a sign of the times if this is like a canary in the coal mine or go weather
Starting point is 01:55:41 It's very weird. You know Phil Knight Oregon Nike they're not exactly the most conservative people or conservative company. They were behind Colin Kaepernick. Yeah, exactly. They were behind Colin Kaepernick, but it just goes to show how far left Oregon has gone and they're in need of an over correction.
Starting point is 01:55:59 Yeah, I don't think people understand just how rough the general citizens of Portland had after all of that stuff Suttled out jazz Yeah, that city whatever the whole yeah, the whole thing I mean it was just terrible and you get citizens in Oregon now the reason this is close isn't because of fills money It's close because there's a lot of citizens out there and fills money and the citizens are being pulled or like This is the wrong direction. This one the the violent pendulum you talk about. And remember, this is also Oregon. The state that when a large whale was beached and rotting, the solution was to blow it up with dynamite. So you have to remember the legacy of Oregon. Anybody wants to go look
Starting point is 01:56:42 on the Oregon whale that the highway department blew up with dynamite? And this is Ladies and Gentlemen, this is your Oregon you get what you vote for. And I mean, you get to go back and vote for something else. So to wrap it up, you know, your book that just came out a month ago, Crisis of Command, How We Lost Trust and Confidence in America's Generals and Politicians,
Starting point is 01:57:04 what can you tell the audience that in this book that maybe we didn't talk about today? Yeah, I appreciate it. So I wrote the book for the American people. I think since the all volunteer force following Vietnam, the American people have been conditioned to thank military members, but they may not necessarily understand the systemic problems that exist in the military. And so I wrote it to shed light for a normal American because, you know, we've been talking about voting here in the last segment and politics.
Starting point is 01:57:31 A lot of Americans go and vote based on like what's right in front of their face, whether it's inflation, you know, prices at the pump, jobs, and they don't think about military and foreign diplomacy a lot. But quite often, military and foreign diplomacy affects everything, like inflation jobs, you know, all these things, gas at the pump. And so I really think it's important for Americans to understand how we can get the United States military back on track, which will allow, you know, all the things we were talking about, when we started the podcast about who the global players were and are or will be in the
Starting point is 01:58:03 future, I think it's incumbent on the American people to make some of the changes. And I lay out ways that they can do that. And so the book goes through the first 17 years of my career in the first half of the book where I outline the macro problems. And then it goes into when I posted that video, the micro story of what happened to me, the real role portion of it that further reinforces the macro trends that I described. So I think people enjoy it.
Starting point is 01:58:29 If you haven't yet ordered it, USA Today Best Seller, Wall Street Journal Best Seller, we're going to put the link below in description and chat. Go ahead and if you support Stuart and what he's doing, after giving 17 years of his life to the Marine Corps, going out there providing freedom for the rest of the Americans while he's out there serving. You can support him by ordering his book.
Starting point is 01:58:49 We'll put the link below as well. Brother, thanks for coming out. This was actually very interesting. You're sometimes you bring guests, they go three, four levels deep on a topic. You went really, really deep on certain topics in regards to military and that was very helpful. I hope the audience enjoyed it as much as I did.
Starting point is 01:59:05 Gang. Hope you be happy. Happy birthday, guys. Thank you. Thank you, thank you. Are we back Thursday? We're not doing podcasting. We're back Thursday.
Starting point is 01:59:13 Oh, Kurt Schilling. Really? Kurt Schilling's on Thursday. That's going to be interesting. Okay, sounds good. It's a potential Hall of Famer, MLB. He belongs in it. The only reason he's not in there, you know, Reggie Jank's has said, Kurt Schilling, thank
Starting point is 01:59:24 you to your freedom of speech. the reason why you're not in the hall talk about that on Thursday thank you everybody bye bye bye bye

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