PBD Podcast - Signs Leading To The Next Great Depression | Ep. 232 | PART 1

Episode Date: February 3, 2023

On this episode, Patrick Bet-David and The hometeam will discuss: Jerome Powell Continuing to Raise Interest Rates Signs Leading To The Next Great Depression Tom Brady retiring from football  Ron DeSantis slamming Donald Trump Nikki Haley running for president  FaceTime or Ask Patrick any questions on https://minnect.com/ Want to get clear on your next 5 business moves? https://valuetainment.com/academy/ Join the channel to get exclusive access to perks: https://bit.ly/3Q9rSQL Download the podcasts on all your favorite platforms https://bit.ly/3sFAW4N Text: PODCAST to 310.340.1132 to get added to the distribution list --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/pbdpodcast/support

I What I become. I'm the only one. Oh my God. So, okay, you missed it. You were like, you know, 50 seconds off of Tom giving some inappropriate jokes. Hilarious. But we're not gonna repeat it.

No, we're not gonna just gonna get into it. Let's talk to him. No, no, no, no. No, no, no, no, no. I was just saying about the economy. What's that happened? It's what the trade is for. Yeah, okay.

All right. Well, listen, home team is here. Oh, I'm gonna pick on me, so I'll say. That was it. Home team, home team. What's that happened is what the trade is. All right, well listen, home team is here. I'm gonna pick on me, so I'm seeing home team. Home team, home team. What did I say? I said about what? The economy? No, no, no, he had a nice joke.

He said that inappropriate for podcasts, but it's fun if it's not on the- But it's great to be here today. It's great to be here today. We got Adam Vinny, Bizdak in the house. We may, by the way, we may introduce the link to the tickets to the first live. We were at the event yesterday. Can I be at the live, do I have to buy tickets or first the live?

You got to buy two tickets, but yesterday we were at the, for the voice of my head. For the voice of my head. Yes. Yes. How did you know? We have a lot of things to talk about. So if you can see this here, McCarthy goes to the White House and they increase the rates by only a quarter.

I know that you're you like that. I love that. I really want to increase in money. If there's everybody is wondering what Vinnie's take is on Fed or proves quarter point rate high. It's coming. We want to hear about it. We got a bunch of different stories we got to get into. How many, how many live viewers do we need to get to in order to make this announcement today? Let's give the friends a challenge. I think that's I think that we can make the announcement at 6000 get to Okay, 6000 guys don't let us down. No, no, so here's what we got here's what we got we got this round the Sanchez Ron the Sanchez for the first time they say took a shot at Trump right now We'll see if that qualifies as a shot or not Nikki Ailey is apparently announcing a run for president and she apparently called

Donald Trump. We'll talk about that. Chad GBT, there's a few different things going on there that teachers rejoice. Chad GBT creators have released a tool to help detect AI generated writing for teachers and they're fired up about it. Elon Musk pushes forward with Twitter payment vision. He's got a few things going on. Fed approves the rate hacks hikes will talk about that. The biggest risk to market is no recession

at all in 2023. JP Morgan strategists say. That's a insider story. Some say we may be facing the depression like of a recession that's going to be coming. Not a good look. And by the way, that article, I don't know who it's from it's a depression fox business we'll talk about that home prices fell in November for fifth to rate month how much tips should you leave this is a story that Adam's very committed to as a guy who doesn't like to leave tips we're going to have a different deal on tips fake news fake news twitter twitter lashes out at Bill Marr following new CNN segment announcement.

Tom Brady announces retirement Hunter Rodden threatened to withhold assistance pay for sex. Who would believe a story like this? Who would believe a story like that with that? We're going to dive into it. There's a story with Alec Baldwin. And then Adams got some feedback on

Tyrene Nichols. First person has the first person Been born to live to 150 years old, which is kind of interesting. Maybe that person's in this room We don't know maybe and alas, but at least the collapse of faith in America. We know you got strong opinions about that So having said that I say we get right into economy Tom and Talk about the rate hikes if you guys are okay with that. Let me see here. Okay and talk about the rate hikes. If you guys are okay with that, let me see here. Okay, Feder proves quarter point rate hikes signals more increases likely.

This is a Wall Street Journal story page eight. If you wanna go to it, you know what would be interesting if we can get the audience to follow with us. If we actually gave PDFs, people would want members. Awesome. If we can do something where members can get PDFs and I can just print it out and follow this story with us Mm-hmm

By the way if you're interested in that give us a thumbs up and subscribe Maybe we'll do it on the next episode. I got it. PPD's PDFs It's a it's a it's a do wet like no other Tom and I couldn't even match the nomin What you just said right. Okay, it's over doing federal post-cortivate hikes signals more increases likely the federal Is it approved and interest rates increase of a quarter of a percentage point and Signal plans to raise again next month to continue lowering inflation. The decision-wans, they follow in six consecutive rate rises that were larger, including an increase of a half a point in the December and a three-quarters of a point in November. The committee anticipates

that ongoing increases in interest rates will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive. The latest increased caps, a year in which the Fed lifted its benchmark federal funds rate from a near zero to a range of four and a half to four and three quarters. A level last reached in 2007. We can now say for the first time that this inflationary process has started. The federal chair, Jerome Powell said, the job is not fully done.

Tom, what are your thoughts on this? Well, remember, J Powell has said that until inflation is at what percent? Or I can see it, or I can see it from here. See the whites of their eyes, I'm gonna keep raising rates. So he said the disinflationary process has started. What he means by that is he's starting to see the peak and flatten and like

come the momentum start to come down, but he said he's still going to be raising rates. What this means to people listening is that all those headlines you see about tech layoffs is not just going to be tech. There's going to be more layoffs than other sectors because this is going to slow the economy slow down, consumer spending. We've already talked on past podcasts about Christmas spending and things that were down. And so this is just a sign that the worst is over

but he's still going to be putting these quarter point rates there. Mortgage is right now are still seven. If you don't have perfect credit, seven and a half even eight. If you have horrible credit and if you have horrible credit and why are you buying a house right now? Because it is going to be for you.

Everybody else, it's six and three quarter seven. So this is going to keep slowing down the economy, but he says the job is not fully done. More is coming. Okay, so you say that, but then I read a story here, Tom. From insider, that says the biggest risk to the market is no recession at all in 2023. JPMorgan strategists say this is an insider story as well. And this is on page 8. It says the biggest threat to market is right now, as if recession doesn't materialize,

forcing the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish, JPMorgan strategist Mike Bell said the S&P 500 NASDAQ composite are nearly up 6 and 11% in the past month, respectively, as Wall Street sees the Fed reversing its Titan campaign in response to an economic downturn, but if the U.S. economy avoids a recession and wage growth remains high, then the Fed would not cut rates as expected and instead would have to resume rate hikes in their second half of the year lifting them higher than Wall Street currently anticipates Bell said unfortunately at that point you're back into a world where both bonds and stocks would go down together He said, but JP Morgan's best case assumes there will be a recession in 2023

That will allow wage pressures to moderate and fets to cut rate in 2024 does that make sense to you? It does make sense and what it means is this. Can I just paint a different picture? I'll do a business study. I'll paint a different picture. But I'm fine. Okay. The economy is the cheerleader. Okay. Okay. What does she look like? She's upstairs in her bedroom. And Jerome pals in there with the cheerleader. Okay. And until the economy. This is an analogy for me. And then so the economy... This is an analogy for us.

It's just a metaphor. We're being analogous. Right. Exactly. And until the economy starts cooling down, which would be your parents' headlights coming to the driveway, he's not leaving the bedroom and running out the back door. Wow. That is what's happening.

So the economy is going to keep getting pounded by these interest rates. And Tom. Tom, please continue to tell me how Jerome Powell is up in the bedroom pounded by these interest rates. And Tom, Tom, please continue to tell me how Jerome Powell's up in the bedroom pounding the economy. I got to know, running out the back door. That's exactly, but that's the way to look at this. And so what JP Morgan is saying is unless we have a recession, which is a little bit of pain and shift in the economy, Powell's not going to move the interest rate. So in other words, until we have the pain of recession and some unemployment, which is terrible part of the pain, but it's part of it.

And we have, you know, price starts to come down. Price coming down on eggs would be a nice thing, especially for the eggmaster. Thank you, Annie. I'm going to ask too. But until that happens. And so I'll use a more, I'll use a nicer, a nicer approach. You know, if you, you're out there snowboarding and you tear up your knee, stretching that knee after the surgery, if anybody has ever had a knee

injury, it's horrible. You go to the doctor and it's horribly painful. Stretching the knee is what has to happen for our economy. And there is going to be some unemployment. There is going to be prices come down and it's going to be tough and that doesn't happen jp Morgan saying if we don't get a little bit of pain and that doesn't happen then he's going to keep raising rates and which they went into a technical terminology which means bonds and stocks both end up in a bad place and the economy doesn't have a chance to kind of cool off. Okay, so Pat, I mean Tom, so he's up there, a lot of pain, a lot of pounding. Is there any way he could stimulate like the economy with some, I don't know, like Viagra? You know what, what's stimulus?

But here's a challenge to continue with the analogy that you're taking. Yeah. And pounding the tongue to go with that analogy. Here's what you have to be thinking about. Imagine, honestly, imagine straight up, if you're on Viagra, four, 10 and a half years straight every single day, you're just taking Viagra. That's what happened to the economy.

We had 120, I can't remember the expansion. See how we did that? So that's the challenge of what's going on today. We've been on Seattle, Seattle, we're freaking all these guys non-stop and all the economies like do it. I gotta take a break. I gotta take a break.

But we're doing with after all this fun. And you can't get it up. We have to go see a doctor. Let me tell you, I guess my wife's wishes I've had two yeti's full of coffee today and that's probably the issue. That's so funny too. So my warning to you all, no, think abouties full of coffee today and that's probably the issue. That's a whole funny thing. So my warning to you all.

No, think about it. Also think about it this way, Vinny. Once the economy shifts and the prices of things come down, even though there's some unemployment, what are the people that have jobs start doing? They start buying incremental things again, maybe traveling a little bit more. And so what that means is GDP goes back up because people start spending naturally and prices have come down a little bit. That's the whole circle of life

that you're trying to manipulate here. But is there gonna be like a moment, you guys think Pat and Tom, do you guys think you two out of them? Is there gonna be like a moment where it's like, oh, I guys, the shit at the fan, were like, is there an announcement when you hit like a real deal recession?

Like, that's really bad. It tends to be a slow drip, drip, drip, drip. Like in 2008, when I experienced my first like, yeah, like, a taste of the nightlife, it was, it was markets down 500 a day. Markets down 800 a day, we're talking about the Dow, typically, markets down 900, boom, or down a thousand, and then it's like next thing, you know,

we're down 40% or whatever the number was. Slow drip, drip, drip, drip, drip, you were already just starting, you think you had just started PHP right after that. I want to say so that was so there's no actual moment It just everybody looks around and goes it's we're inside it right now. Can I can I give a little yeah So number one shout out to who I think is the most Important figure in America today. It's his birthday this weekend and I'm not talking about me. We share the same birthday. I'm talking about

Jerome Powell, February 4th, Pull him up Rob, just so I can fact check this thing. Let's take a look at this. I already sent it to Rob, but now he's doing the work. You see the guy with the cheerleader. Look at that. February 4th. Shout out to him. But the 53. So this is a zero birthday for him. It is. Yeah. It's going to be 70 shout out to my dad, Ron Pal. But I just want to give you some quick numbers real quick, just so you can kind of wrap your head around the numbers, because I think Pat teed up exactly what we should be discussing is that these prognosticators who are pretty, there's a recession in 2023. No way, it's going to be 2024.

What's Biden going to do? No way Biden's going to enter a 2024 election. If there's a recession, he's gonna stimulate the economy, whatever it is. Here's just some numbers for you. Inflation for the year, I know his up as high as 8%, overall, was 6.5% year over year last year. I think they wanna keep it somewhere around two to 3%.

So it's almost double where we'd like it to be in the United States. Unemployment somehow is still 3.5%. I know that you think that's gonna increase dramatically over the next few years. We'll see. The last time it was 3.5% was under the Trump administration. I wanna say somewhere in the 2018 range where he was bragging about, hey, this is, you know,

lowest unemployment, lowest blacks, Asians, whites. It was obviously a great time for the economy at that point. But here's where I want to go to. We've talked about this a few times. This fear greed index, CNN does a good job about this, Rob. I don't know if you want to just pull that up. The fear greed index, one month, so it's zero to 100. 100 is like full on greed.

Zero is like shockingly fearful. Right now, one month ago, one year ago, We were at 28 28 just to put in a perspective That's when crypto started falling. Yeah absolute fear extreme fear mode a month ago It was 38 which was essentially fear mode essentially way less than neutral now Today we're at 68 which is like creating trending towards extreme gear agreed So I don't know what's happening in the economy over the last month, but some of these numbers inflation going down

and playing in strong, I don't know, I can't make sense of it. Is like, is the economy in shambles? Are we doing better than ever? Are people greedier? Are people fearful? I think to answer your question, I think there's a famous saying,

like trying to predict the stock market is the equivalent of trying to figure out a drunk stumbling man figuring out his way home. He's just gonna. Yeah that whole deal So, you know, you always hear these prognosticators Who continually get it wrong? What do they say like a monkey throwing darts as a better chance of predicting where the economy goes? Last point. I wish what they did like you ever watch a, you know, Fox NFL or, you know, CBS and they show or ESPN, they show the, whether it's Stephen A Smith or Booker Smith or whatever these guys names are Chris Burman, all these guys, they show their record for their year against predictions. All right.

Chris Burman was 48 and 72 this year. It's like turns out he don't know shit. Yeah. Okay. I wish they did that for people in Keeping the financial I keep a great staff great idea. That's forget what Well, if you take a look here and by the way, thanks for bringing us up Adam. This is really time Tom No, I meant that sincerely so today Adam is talking about a good index to take a look at and it talks about the emotion driving the market

It's not necessarily consumers out there you and me. It is the emotion driving market What has been happening right now? We've had a lot of layoffs the market likes layoffs because it means a company is going to be cutting It's cost and in the short time the stock is going to pop a little bit So guess what greed? Hey, I can go get a little bit of a pop off that stock, because Facebook, you know, laid off people had a pretty reasonable quarter and they're buying back shares. Hey, I got a little pop I can get out of this. That is a Greed Index.

This doesn't necessarily relate to consumers, but right now with all the layoffs and things that happen, the market is in a, a little pop cycle where people are investing in it. These are sophisticated traders and taking advantage of the pops that have come from the layoffs and the few companies that had reasonable quarters. Well, let me read this one then, because this kind of goes into past the story of greed. GDP reveals ominous, great depression warning sign,

not seen since 1932, okay? A GDP report is saying that a great depression warning sign, not seen since 1932, here's what it is. Even the areas that what, which contributed positively to GDP are not necessarily signs of prosperity. For example, business investment grew at only 1.4% in the Ford quarter, but that was almost entirely inventory growth.

Non-residential investment, a key driver of future economic growth, was only a 0.7%. Meanwhile, residential investment fell off a cliff, dropping 26.7% as consumers were unable to afford the combination of high home prices, high interest rates, and falling real incomes. But perhaps the most troubling is the precipitous drop in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion in 2022. For context, this is the second largest percentage drop in real disposable income ever behind only 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression, to keep up with inflation.

Consumers are now depleting their savings and burning through the stimulus checks they received during 2020 and 2021. That is the one thing that I don't think enough people are talking about. You can look at everything that's good, and you can, well look at what's going on here, look at what's going on there. But when people run out of savings, something happens to them.

And gradually our savings has gone from $2.1 trillion down $8 trillion in savings to $1.1, $1.2 trillion. That's like, you have $20,000, now you've got $10,000. It's not crazy yet, but you're thinking about it. Okay. And for for those who were kind of sitting there being greedy and say, well, you know, let me tell you here's one. I'm not gonna sell this for this price Sales are coming in the next two quarters sales are coming in the next two quarters and the credit card balances

I mean you tweeted it out and coming in the next quarters and the credit card balances mean you tweeted it out back you also a hundred forty billion yeah nine hundred forty billion we were talking about a unisat time before to claim the buck uh... show that we have clay travel so it's guys do a great job but you know the the and by the way do you remember i don't know if you remember this maybe you will when we were doing podcasts and you said pat i'm all about save that money look what's happened ever since we give this stimulus checks. People are paying off the credit card debt.

Americans are saving 27% record breaking, I don't know if you remember, this was a month. This is so, so Biden's inauguration is won. January 2021, March day announced a $1.9 trillion. In April, the savings rate in America hits 27%. When is the last time we save 27% 27% you know what the savings rate is right now 2.4% Oh shit. By the way, lowest it's been in 17 years. Lowest it's been in 17 years You know what 17 is 17 is not even 2008 crash 17 is prior to that so these are things that will be felt. You know, somebody the other day on

Who posted this on oh, uh, can you go to professor Scott Galway go to professor Scott Galway's Twitter account He posted this yesterday and if you guys know who he is and profitee he's a beast. He's a he's a beast, but he also Is no go to his okay? It's gonna be one of his recent tweets where he talks about the economy is not as bad as people are saying Man, I hope you can go to it if you can't go to it I'm gonna read and my there it is right there click on that one. That's the one zoom in a little bit Real GDP is up 6.7% under Biden we gained four and a half million jobs in 2022 inflation over the last six months Is down to percent at an annual rate.

Economy is doing better than most Americans think. Okay, now go to the comments. Go to the comments. Go to the comments. Go to the comments. Zoom in a little bit. Todd Mitchen. Tell that to almost a $4 gas, $9 eggs, $8 milk, out gas,

an electric bill that went up two thirds and the countless increases of massive amounts while literally tens of thousands of people are being laid off at a record pace. I like you, but your comments are wrong. Okay, keep going lower, keep going lower. So what he's saying is he's not feeling it. The other person is saying the average day-to-day person

that's shopping, they're feeling it. Here's one thing that happens when you make money. The moment you make money, it's certain things change, meaning a $3 increase isn't failed. You know, a gas prices goes up $2, you won't feel it. You're like, ah, gas, that was filled up by tank at $80, and that's $110.

Okay, who cares, just $30? No, hey, you know, this thing that we were paying this much money for, shopping's gone up every month, $200, it's not a big deal, it's up every month 200 dollars. It's not a big dose 200 dollars Two person making money's not a big deal of course two person that's making fifty five thousand dollars a year or making eighty two thousand dollars trying to take it their husband a wife and three kids. Yeah, they're gonna feel it so The real pain is felt by the people and their savings is down their confidence is down You feeling when you talk to them?

So, they're out of touch, Pat, like all the late night hacks, all the number when the poo and price, all that poo and, they're like, I'll happily pay, you know, $5 more or whatever, Gal and just to, being poo and space, like, okay, rich guy in the bubble, what about us? What about the little guy? That's not, you know what I mean?

I can do, like, gas in LA right now, I saw I think that seven song like how are you guys living in California right now with the gas that much and you have to drive an hour and a half every single day to work by by the way, you know how they say Republicans, you know, all they care about is they they want to take care of their oil people is what they want to do. This is all they want to do. Really? Okay. Do you really okay do you know go to this article wall street journal on a send it to you right now uh... uh... do you know that the oil companies uh... biggest profitable quarter ever was under what president

was it under bush was it under reagan percentage wise was it under trump i mean it's got to be under trump right it has to be under trump right no record breaking I just sent it to you right now. If you see it, record breaking profits for Exxon mobile was under who? If you had the guess, the one and only the goat, Joseph Biden. Oh, seriously? No question about it. How's that? Look at the amount of profit these guys are making under a democratic president. Okay. Exxon go to the top. Exxon, Exxon, Exxon, Exxon, vault to record annual profits of $55.7 billion under Joe Biden's

policies. Got it. Well, I mean, obviously these guys are more noble people and they would never help the oil companies make more money. Never. But they did. As weird as it sounds, this is when sometimes you look at policies and you're, wow, those guys are for those They would never help the oil companies make more money. Never. But they did. As weird as it sound. This is when sometimes you look at policies and you're, wow, those guys are for those guys. Oh, we would never defend those guys. Oh, we're giving money to help the poor. And this is what we're doing.

Really, your policies is what made America have nearly 10 people that are worth $100 billion. Because when you gave your trillions of dollars to the poor people or middle America, all they did is want to give the money to the corporations and they spent the money. So emotionally, somebody may say, wow, this is great. I mean, we're doing the right thing, such a noble thing. Yeah, the problem is people still don't know how to save. The problem is people still don't know how money works.

The problem is people still don't know the basic fundamentals of things that you do to manage your finances. They still don't know that you give them more money. They're going to spend it. And it's crazy to see that, and especially with the administration's push on green and no fracking and no nothing. How is that? That's crazy to see that they're making that's a record vaulted.

Not they didn't say jump vaulted to 55. That's insane. Yeah. I mean, they should, it Biden and the Democrats should go to the oil companies and say, listen, guys, support us next year. We're going to make you more money. Look how much we've done for you. Go green, go greener. We're going to get richer.

They announced it. You know how you all announced the MVP of the year was Newsom. You know, it's some, did you hear at their annual convention, annual convention MVP or Joseph Biden? No, I'm just kidding. but I mean, it should be. No, it's not hilarious. No, you, if you listen to the administration, you know, you see a lot of these stats that come out

that no one in the media, words or words until real numbers show up and then prove them false. And all of the stuff like on the number of jobs there, you saw one of the responses there was to it. Biden saying we've created all these jobs. No, he didn't create all these jobs. It was basically if you look at restaurants and hospitality. And by the way, part of the American savings rate, Pat, we all know this, is Americans couldn't travel in 2001, couldn't

go out to a dinner, couldn't go even for, you know, date night out of town to a little spa that you could afford maybe or something with your wife. You were inside, so it was kind of like savings by default a little bit, because the personal, as you like to say, the F&B budget had been held up by the lockdown. But Biden goes out and says, hey, I've created all these jobs. That's a, that's a, no, it's not.

It's all these people are coming back. All the hospitality workers that were basically furloughed came back to their hospitality jobs. That's not a new job. It would be like this. all the hospitality workers that were basically furloughed came back to their hospitality jobs. That's not a new job. It would be like this. Me and the BizDoc Bay have some trouble. So we agreed to get counseling and we do a little separation for three months while we

get counseling. Then on her birthday, we announced that we're back together and I walk into a room full of people and say, hi, I like you to meet my new wife. That is what Biden is just doing with the jobs report. That's hilarious. But yeah, so anyway, so again, you look at the numbers. So one side says things are gonna be okay. The other side says we're not gonna be in recession.

Look at the numbers, what's gonna happen. The reality is nobody fully knows what is going on. Okay, everybody's purely speculating, including us. But what Adam said is, where it goes, slow, drip, drip, I thought at first it was gonna get up and start dancing like he was like doing some kind of a song, but he was, it was gonna go and then all of a sudden, boom, it drops and everybody says, holy shit, you know?

So, and the opposite can happen as well. Which the opposite, on all of a sudden, you wake up, you're like, how the hell did Dow Jones get to 42,000? That is the crazy part about the economy, okay? That's why no one in the history of it has been able to have a hundred percent track record of guessing what happens next, okay? It's a gamble.

And all this just got highlighted over the last two, three years. Market tanks, black swan event, didn't see this happening, shut down, everything's going down. How much of the stock market go down in the first six months of COVID, 40% or whatever it was? Boom, bounce back, higher than ever. Hit 30,000, first time ever.

And we're seeing these wild swings and numbers, personal savings rates. Higher than it's ever been, a year later, lowest savings rates, I think we're not fully appreciating how fucking insane COVID was from a money standpoint. Discover a world shutdown standpoint. Supply chain. I think people get it, but we're finally just kind of trying to make sense of these numbers.

And then didn't Biden just announce that as of May 2023 in the next few months, officially we're done. What was that announcement? What do you see that at once? But this is the done, done. This is the time. He's like the Tom Brady retirement. Yeah.

Oh, wink, wink. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I think you're right. He's like, okay, now it's really, really done. Yeah. These wild swings and numbers, I think, should be expected after such a black, brown event. We just covered a lot of different things right there.

Let's go to the next story here. Tom Brady retiring from football for good. Second time run, emotional message that that he gave I wore his jersey yesterday I don't want to spend a lot of time on this thing here But obviously seeing him make the announcement and now taking a break to go with the family Nobody knows what he's gonna be doing next. He's already got a massive contract for himself It's a once in a lifetime a Player to see what he did seven championships. The argument becomes the following is should

we move in forward say he is the Brady of that that or should we still say he is the Jordan of such and such. That's the biggest debate. And some people may even come in and say, wait a minute, what you're talking about is great, but imagine

being the greatest player in the world of a sport that is the most popular player sport in the world, which is soccer. We should move and forward say he is the messy. So what is we have to we have to figure it out right now in the world has to follow. Okay. Right now.

Should we have to figure it out again? We're going to set the stand for everybody. Is it Brady Jordan or messy moving forward? Okay. And in the world because of your and soccer. So like that's a messy in the world. In the United States of America, Brady or Jordan, I mean, I grew up with Jordan, so that's my guy.

So as far as like the greatest, greatest, greatest, greatest, of anything, it's MJ, it's not even a question. I already see, however. Why, why do you say that? Because Brady left, went to the box and won a Super Bowl with another team. Did Jordan win a championship with the Wizards? You know what're right Rob Michael Jordan. No, no bueno. You got me I know what he sang is no but record wise seven seven championships went to a different team the win

I think the greatest in the world is messy. I think in the United States I gotta go and Jordan. I'm sorry and my I'm a Giants fan and we beat him twice Well if it wasn't for the New York Giants, he'd have two more rings. FYI. I'll tell you that you're welcome. I'll tell you this. We can have that debate. That's great. These are all this. He's this goat mountain right here. Yeah. There's only one the most eligible bachelor in the world at this point. That guy. Thomas Brady. Yeah.

Catch. Catch you as number one. So he doesn't need to be on Bumble. He doesn't need to be on tender. He is tender. He is Bumble. He is the honey to the bees. I got you guys the bees need an honest question if he didn't retire I mean if he did go with the retirement the first one would he still be married? Probably yes, are you see that was obviously the final Yes, that was the straw that broke the camera the same with the horse in the can I the straw that broke the camera back. You know the horse I disagree by the way in in the world of sports when a goat

Retires and they go from that life to a day to day They're not used to seeing each other as much as a part of why it worked was because it was a Part-time mayor. It's a full-time commitment, but it's a part-time. I like that. You know marriage and bodybuilding It happens and baseball and basketball and football. I mean pools, you know Jordan, you know, so you got so many of them you go through very very few of them Stayed together. It's a very hard thing and so Tom Brady With where she was I have a feeling that we're having issues way before that,

on the way they want to live, different lifestyles. And no, I think either way, it would have just taken a little longer. That's my opinion. But anyway. But you could just say, Pat, that time of part, like with seasons, for the average person, you can't have a season.

It'd be cool to go to life. Like, babe, I need two months. Let me tell you. I gotta go. Vinny, you know't have a season. It'd be cool to go to life. Like babe, I need two months. Let me tell you. I gotta go. Vinnie, you know when somebody says something like this, tell say man, I would've loved. If I would've worked with Elon Musk, I would've freaking killed it. If I would've worked under Steve Jobs,

I would've freaking killed it. You know, if I had a teammate like Brady, dude, it would've been awesome. You know, if I was married to Tom Brady and I had a husband like him oh dude I would do anything for the guy right and then you let's just say you do and you're working for Steve Jobs. What do you think Steve Jobs would do? Do you think he would sit there and say let me sell you to vision. We were apples going to be in the

future one day and one day we're gonna build this machine a computer is gonna fit in a smaller case like this and you would say, What a visionary or do you think Steve Jobs would say you guys got six months to fit this big-ass box in this or your fire? Here you okay, all right So the point is like you want to work for Steve Jobs until you work for Steve Jobs and you say discuss a freaking tyrant Right the hell is a matter with this guy and you're like, I'd love to marry Tom Brady. Oh, Tom, it'd be so freaking. And all of a sudden, boom, you're, you're Jacelle,

my beautiful model, you know, marry to the guy, Tom Brady, and like, holy freaking shit, I want him to obsess over me, like all the other men I've ever dated. This guy loves football more than me. I can't be with a guy like that. And shit, I don't want to be with a guy like this.

And you go with a, you know, jujitsu guy that's got an instructor who's got more time to spend time with you than a Tom Brady. Yeah, there's a lot of people that want to be guy with people like this until you are with them. And they're like, holy shit. Maybe I should have just married the other school teacher. And both of them don't work by the way,

because you want the bad boy and you want the school teacher. And that guy just doesn't exist. Okay. Anyway, that was more like a rain. I love it. You're right. You're right. You know, I sell. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, by the way, Jen and I were dating. I told I said, baby, if you want a nine to five guy, I'm not it. We went to a, we went to a counselor. And it's one guy, Christian counselor who the church was sent to and have you to heard me tell the story. So we go to this counselor and I said, so tell me about yourself. Yeah, I'm a, you know, my wife and I've been married 33 years. I'm kind of

impressive. So if somebody can take advice from, I said, what's your secret sauce for your marriage working out? For 33 years. We have had dinner every night at six o'clock. We've never missed it. I believe that's the key to success. I said, what business are you in? Oh, I'm a school teacher. How about your wife? She's also a school teacher. I said, you know, it's so awesome meeting you. Here's the $200 baby. We got to go. He was so uncomfortable. Jennifer's on comes like, babe, just let's at least that's a no babe. There's nothing we can talk here. We're getting the car says, what was that all about? I said, babe, I'm not a school teacher. I'm not There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job.

There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job.

There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job.

There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. There's only one way to get a job. I feel you, but I think it's so important what you're saying about having those conversations up front like you established early and often with Jen. Hey, I'm not that nine to five guy. So what's the, um, did something say a fendee? Yeah, we're Middle East. What's the famous quote where it says, men wear Mary women, hoping that they will never change and that women, Mary men, hoping that they will change and then invariably they'll both be disappointed. I think it's very important. It goes, it goes, men marry women, hoping they don't change and they do women marry men, hoping they change and they don't. Right. And they're both end up disappointed. So, I think

if you establish what you were just talking about upfront, hey, listen, I'm not that nine to five guy. That's six o'clock dinner thing every night. I'm just shooting a freaking video by six o'clock. I might not be home till eight. So like, this is the guy you're going to marry. Are you comfortable with that? Yeah. Because I don't, seven years down the road, I don't know why you're never home.

It's like, I told you that up front. Yeah, and going up all you step at is really, really fast. I think those moments where you, like, that time off, I'm not saying being away from your wife forever, but like that season that he's gone and whatever, I think it helps because you know, you're a part and then when you see each other, it's amazing. But if you're there every single day in the person's face, it's a little too much. Yeah, the fables never match, you know, the fables and the stories never match the reality.

And you can read a lot of books and biographies about Bezos, about jobs. I love the story. It was in Forbes or Fortune goes way back. Jobs is very frustrated by a thing called mobile me. Remember about 12, 15 years ago, maybe longer than that, Apple had a product called mobile me. It's not really working right. Halls everybody into a conference room who is working on it? So there is like, apparently about a hundred people in there. And he points a product manager and he says, tell me what mobile me, what the spec is, what the product is. Well, mobile me is, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, the game and he looks at the guy and he said, okay.

And they said he started to turn red. Steve Jobs says, well then why the flip doesn't it do that? You're done and he points to his left to two people they are leading the project and he leaves a conference room ladies and gentlemen that is the romantic view exactly exactly only if i you know but by the way that whole concept about you are the person you are the average of five people you can get with there's typically the one guy in that group that you don't like because he's

constantly challenging you and you most people would have a very hard time being friends with a guy like Steve Jobs. It's not a easy friendship. It's good on the outside, it's tough on the inside. I love that point you made by the way, but your network is your network and you are the combination of the five people you said, but it's usually one guy. One guy that loves it together. One guy that holds it together.

And Vinny, thank you for holding this all together, brother. If you don't like to, you're welcome to. No, but by the way, just so everybody knows, Vinnie is probably the, I don't know, he's the second best athlete in this room. Vinnie's a ridiculous athlete. I don't understand why you're so good. Middle East, I was like, how do we, I don't know where I came from. There's nine forms of intelligence.

Okay. Okay. Interpersonal, you're good with people. Intrapersonal, you're independently, you're good by yourself, like you can spend time, some people call you a loner, you're not, you're just very confident with yourself aware. Three, numerical, you're good with numbers. Four musical, you're good with music. Five is spatial, you can go into room and say you got to put something here, you got to put something here, you got to put something here, I would put the window here, I would put the kitchen here. I got zero spatial. Okay, when it comes on through.

Okay, then you have a kinesthetic, which is body. You're very good with body. That's your one of them. That's athletically, you guys just naturally can do that. And then there's a few other ones that are out there, right? But it's a natural intelligence. Some people that just pick up a ball can't, and they can play it.

And by the way, the same is true about people who are not. You heard somebody watch somebody that played the same sport God knows over and over and over again They still look weird. It's like the guy that takes salsa lessons for seven years And he goes to club and dance a salsa and you're like I swear to God. This is uncomfortable And he's been doing it for seven damn years and it's like a Dancing that they do just doesn't make sense. That's not you. Anyway, let's go to the next story. Ron the Santers. Let's do rondisantis. If you guys are okay with this. I don't want to upset anybody. Let's talk about some rondisantis here. Here we go. Rondisantis reportedly preparing for 2024 presidential run a more

angry Donald Trump takes shot at this loyal Floridaida governor this just happened uh... recently but i want to go to the most updated story of where the santa's uh... uh... there is the gloves are off donald trump rants twenty twenty four right randerson very disloyal uh... where's the one the okay there is that's the one it says the santa's response to trumps criticism says verdict has been rendered by florida voters not holding back by the way k not holding back at all

uh... so here's here's what it sounds like uh... former president donald trump has couldn't afford a governor on the centus osu success to donald trump's administration and that i've had a hypothetical presidential bid would be insulting run would have not been governor for wasn't for me so when i hear he might run, I consider that very disloyal,

which by the way, he is right. If it wasn't for Trump's endorsement, Ron doesn't win. Gov. I mean, whether you like Trump or you like the Santas, are you gonna vote, Republican ticket, no matter what? Or you don't like either one of them.

That endorsement helped him get, he won by 34,000 votes. The Santas responded to Trump's comments by citing his recent landslide victory with Florida voters. Well, look what I would say, would just say is this. I roll out of bed, I have people attacking me from all angles, the Santos set,

and the good thing is that the people are able to render a judgment on that, whether they reelect you or not. The Santos was overwhelming, he reelect you or not. The Santis was overwhelming. He reelected in November for a second term, leading Florida in one the highest percentage of the vote that any Republican governor candidate has in the history of a state's history.

He also won by the largest raw vote margin of one and a half million votes than any governor candidate has ever had in the Florida history. The verdict has been rendered by the people of the state of Florida, has been rendered by the people of the state of Florida, okay? Which by the way, you go from winning by 34,000 votes

and you go winning one and a half million votes and you win Miami day, you win, you win, you win, you win, and this is what he did is absolutely unbelievable to validate how great of a job he did for four years. But that doesn't mean Trump's endorsement didn't help him win. Without Trump's endorsement, he wouldn't want. And it was all open. And Pat just going off, because he said he claimed that he,

you know, he owes him for the success. I'm going to be 100% honest with you. Me living in California, not really in the political world. I didn't hear who, I don't know, the governor of Florida. I didn't know anything about that. Trump's attitude towards the medium being bold, and then all of a sudden I did start seeing the Santa's started becoming that guy where I was like,

oh my God, he's kind of like him, where he's calling out, you know, pointing at people, tell reporters in their face. I don't know if it was the Trump, like, attitude or the mystique, but that type of attitude I've seen, like, carry lake and all these people. Very interesting point. Is that weird, don't panic.

And this is coming from a guy that lives in California that's a veteran that never gave a damn about politics. Then I started seeing COVID, and it was during COVID where the Sanctus was like, no, no, we're not gonna be like these people, and that drew the attention to him because he was Trump-like. You're filming me?

So I mean, say what you want. I think a little bit of that attitude did brush off on him. The most impressive thing of theSantis' win for governor in 2022 was that he took Hillsborough County. I know Miami-Dade is often very much liberal. There is no more liberal county in the state of Florida than Hillsborough. That's Tampa, St. Petersburg. That is where Charlie Christ resides. That's his hometown. Any beat Charlie Christ by how many votes? 40,000 votes. Oh, damn. So if you look at, basically, if you want to give,

if you want to call each of Trump and DeSantis a stock, yeah, right? Clearly, one has been on the upswing since 2020. And one has been on the major decline since 2020. And shots fired, by the way because the Santas does not respond to Trump. He takes it. He takes it. He takes it. But read into exactly what he said. And the good thing is that the people are able to render a judgment on that and whether they reelect you or not read between the lines here. He's basically

saying, I got reelected by landslide. You did not Sardin form you and we often say that if not for COVID, Trump would have probably been reelected. 100%. If not for COVID, we probably wouldn't all know Ron DeSantis's name. I'd be honest with you. You don't know the random governor from a state Doesn't matter. No. The reality is COVID was Trump's Achilles heel and COVID was what made Ron DeSantis. So we'll see what happens. Right now at this point, if you look at the numbers,

you know my big Vegas guy, it is now DeSantis' election to lose. Wow. He's past Trump in the primary polls and we'll see what happens. But we've got a long road ahead. No doubt. But here's the thing though, love them or hate them. Don't you think just being Trump, wouldn't you be furious if from even before you got

in or you got caught that you won the Department of Justice with the FBI with Peter struck and all these freaking guys with Hillary Clinton all colluding. The actual collusion was the left and then bro that all that presidency and then COVID everybody Everybody every the whole swamp against you Don't you think he kind of wants to come in and have a shot where all that shit is already done? And then you can be like all right. I'm coming in wrong now you guys can't play that Russia shit again All the all the all the colluding all that shit no no now coming in without all you guys all the deep state behind me I mean I would be a pissed off number one, but number two, I would tell the people,

hey, guys, how about give me a shot without everybody against me? Let me, yeah, I'm gonna talk shit. Yeah, I'm gonna be brash, but give me a chance, you know what I mean? Because, it, be honest, it wasn't fair. Was it love or hate them? It wasn't fair. And then COVID comes, I mean, how much shit could go wrong for one guy? Beyond it. I hear you, I hear you. You're making a good case here, but I think this is one thing I will say, there's nothing uglier than politics.

Obviously. Presidential politics. So when you enter the ring, you know, exactly it's gonna be a mud slinging contest, Galore. You don't think the Santhus is literally emotionally, spiritually, mentally getting ready. God damn it a bit you run every disgusting thing you've ever done is going to be exposed what was great about trump is talk about ten flawed dawn anyone grab them by the pussy they're done yeah

they're can't send their campaign he's like hell yeah that locker room talk buddy so yeah it's a dirty, dirty game out there. You better be ready for it. But when your own government and the Department of Justice, as you're a sitting president, is illegally going by and then nothing happens to them, welcome to politics. I get it.

I get it. I get it. It's horrible, but you're 100% right. Donald Trump has shot, he's wounded. He has, like, what else can you say about me, bro? Stormy Daniels. What? Stormy Daniels is such a... By the you say about me, bro? Stormy Daniels? What do you, what? Stormy Daniels is such a, yeah.

By the way, that's so, the Stormy Daniels lawyer, whatever happened to that guy, I have a not, he whatever happened with him. He's failed. You have any thoughts on this or no? Yeah, I think, you know, I see it both ways. I look at Trump and I say, look, here's a guy that used his personal political capital,

you know, whether you love him or hate him guy that used his personal political capital, whether you love him or hate him, he used his personal political capital to help Ron DeSantis at a key time and Ron DeSantis is not governor and does not launch the bigger phase of his political life without that endorsement. And Trump is saying, listen, I lost, but I'm gonna get ahead of scene. I'm gonna get the band back together. Some will be with me, some won't, but I'm gonna get it back together

and I'm gonna run again. And I think he's told everybody that in Whispers and he is disappointed that DeSanis is putting together a campaign to go run. Unfortunately, this is not Kings you know, King's X. This is not the way it works. I mean, you look at the, you look at the, the Democrat field, Hillary was running.

I am running, and I'm gonna go, and everybody stay out of the way. Nope, Obama ran, all those people stepped up. When it's time to run for president, it's a, Adam, it's the way to say it. It is such a dirty game. You have to keep reminding yourself as you analyze it. This is dirty by design. Right? Say, how, Hillary's like, I was secretary of state. I'm smart as hell. I had the first healthcare initiative. I have all these things. Stay the flip out of my

way. No, there was nine people on stage with her and Obama beater. And you know, that just, that's just the way this works. Yeah. Pat, let me ask you, I think you've only watched one Netflix show ever from beginning to end. Well, Greg shared told me to watch Ted Lasso. Okay. So I watched that. You Just season one. Okay, so that's the only show you've ever watched. This House of Cards. That's where I'm going. I've been. Which essentially that's Kevin Spacey.

By the way, what happened to him? He gets sexual assault charges and nothing. He'll never go, he's untouchable. Where I'm going with this is, I think if anybody understands how dirty business is and everything you're working on with your enemies and all that, not that you needed to watch House of Cards really fundamentally realize how disgusting

and dirty politics is, but how dirty, did you think it was? Is it what are you seeing out there? Everything that using your House of Cards is a reference point to dirtyness of politics, compared to business if you want. Well, I don't know, I'm not in it. You know, I'm not in the political world, but when I'm in the business world,

it's very ugly. But at least in the business world, there are some laws in regulation. These guys are using laws in regulation as like, the way many of these politicians that have been around, there are no difference than the guys who were in New York saying, hey, the Gambino family protects our restaurant. Hey, you messed with us, you gotta go talk to the Colombo family. Hey, you gotta go to such and such family.

They're like, hey, Tony, I'm sorry, man, don't worry. I'm good. Please, tell Sammy, we're okay. We don't have any issues. You ever call Sammy? No, no, I'm good, totally good. The way these guys are running politics is they're saying, oh, you want to say something?

You want me to contact you? You want me to get, okay, no problem. See what I do with. I R S is the Gambino family. DOJ is the Colombo family. You know, you got the FBI is the GenoV's family. You want me to keep calling? They got these life families.

I'm going to call one of the families and look what we're going to do to you. We're going to ruin your life is what we do. And that's what they do. So they're a bunch of ponds that lean onto those five families to destroy people's lives and they're very, very good at it. So this is why when you run for office,

we can have a good time together. Thank you. I look forward to that, guys. All right, so let's go to the next story. So let's go to the next story. Let's go to the next story. Republican Nikki Haley is set to announce a run for president. Nikki Haley is set to announce a run for president. Nikki Haley is set to announce a run for president.

Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor who also served in the Trump Administration is preparing a run for 2024. The Republican is set to be the first to challenge former president Donald Trump and the GOP, primary election. Haley served as Trump's US ambassador to the United Nations for nearly two years from 2017-2018. When she resigned, prior to her tenure in the Trump administration, Haley led the state of South Carolina as the governor from 2011 to 2017 when she left to take the job at the UN. Haley was a first woman to serve as governor of South Carolina. In 2021, Haley has said she wouldn't run for president if Trump ran again, but recently deviated from her typical line calling for a new generation of leadership

in the Republican Party and an appearance on Fox News that she later posted on Twitter. So Nikki Haley, what are your thoughts on Nikki Haley running for president? Well, I think there's two things. So I'm, what am I talking about? Macro micro because you know that's how I do it. On the macro level, she is now come out and there's more than just the Santa's has walked onto the debate stage. There's now three podiums, Trump, the Santa's, and Haley.

This opens the door for others to declare as well on the macro stage. And so what that does is actually helps the Santa's because it's not the Santa's breaking rank and saying I wanna run. Now it's multiple people and it's like, hey, this is a primary, this is what we do. This is the process.

So, Donald, you're gonna be on stage and there's other people gonna be there. So, on the macro level, I think this helps DeSantis because it opens up the field and it's not just Trump versus DeSantis, there's many people running. The second thing on the micro level, I think she's positioning for the

peace spot. Oh wow. That's my, that's my thought. What do you think, Pat? I'm you and I on the same page with that. I think what they are doing is exactly that. Yeah, that's for me. It's exactly that. They're speaking very highly of each other. When you get on that stage, the strategy, my opinion, is the fact that Nikki Haley's gonna be the one to go after the centrist, not Trump. And they're gonna double-tack team. And then eventually Nikki could end up being a VP.

And by the way, she's a very qualified VP if she ends up becoming a VP. Some even thought at one point, she wasn't on Trump camp because she called them out on a couple different things. So this is, you know, this is a very, very strategy, strategic thing that's taking place. It's going to be interesting to see the camp that, because there is a Republican camp that doesn't want Trump. And there is a Republican camp that only believes Trump's the one that needs to finish up his second term

and fix everything that started. Either way, this is now what we're seeing strategy taking place between the two. It'll be fun to see what direction the Santa's go. This was an episode on how the cars were Kevin Spacey's character teamed up with somebody else during the debate. And I mean, I say it all, but dude, honestly, I'm just hearing you guys talk about this stage and the, bro, I swear to God, I would pay to watch. I'm excited to see that moment of DeSantis, Trump, and her, I think that you have ceased to get on board, bro, and just make it like announce them

and have them come in the, dude, I would 100% put 50 bucks to watch this. The first time we've done it, I put our bet on this. And my dude, that's gonna divide the party, and then we mean you've paid for what. I think Tom hit on the head. I think Pat agreed with him. She is full on auditioning for a vice presidential role

in the movie called 2024. There's no chance she's being elected president of the United States. No. Okay. My opinion, hear me, I agree. It's Trump or DeSantis, that's it. Okay. By the way, she ain't no like walk in the park. She's cunning, smart, attractive enough

to basically hold her own on the stage. She was a governor. Wasn't she the ambassador to the UN under Trump? Like, she ain't no joke. So just house of card style. She's got some stuff up, firstly. Let's see who she attacks. Who's she embraces. And it's not just up, Bruce Lee, if some stuff up her sleeve. Let's see who she attacks and see if she embraces.

And it's not just up her sleeve, it's between her ears. I had that privilege of sitting with her and with Congressman Beth Fendine in Dallas at a small gathering, they were trying to raise funds and stuff, and she was there to support Beth's campaign. And there was about 50 of us at this little reception before the big reception, you know how those things work. And somebody asked her to give a breakdown

of foreign trade, tariff, no tariff and things, and she went for 15 minutes with one of the most elegant dissertations, and I'm like, wow, not only does she know what she's talking about, she's in it, and that was when she was serving at the UN. So this is also a very smart person that would balance the ticket and she would play her foreign policy cards

and experience her trade in the UN. Her and DeSantis unbeatable ticket. Her and Trump, still very beatable. My opinion, you might be right. Wait, her and DeSantis unbeatable ticket, her and Trump still to be. Yeah, because I think bottom line is this, we're talking about primaries, we get it. There's so many independence out there.

There's so many, you know, conservative Democrats who will gladly, loudly, proudly walk into a voting booth and say, I voted for Ron DeSantis. No doubt. There's not those many of those at Trump these days. I'm sorry. No doubt. There's not those many of those at Trump these days. I'm sorry.