Peak Prosperity - Creak! Pop! The Yen, Banking Stress & Housing

Episode Date: June 28, 2024

The yen slices right through Japan’s defensive line at 160, housing sales slump as prices make one last push into truly insane territory and the equity “”markets”” are not behaving as if they are tethered to either economic data or geopolitical risk.

Hello everybody, Chris Martinson here, and today we're going to be talking about finance and economics as part of Finance U. Remember, anything that you see in this video and all resources available at our websites or affiliated websites are not intended as or construed as financial advice. This is for educational purposes. Remember, if you have a financial decision, please consult a financial professional. We are not attorneys. We're not CPAs. We are not financial managers. As well, we do our best to be accurate, and everything we represent is as accurate as we know it to be. Now, let's turn to our program. They made a comment, and I remembered it, and then they followed up reminding us that they made that comment, that basically

the policy actions had guaranteed that the next bank failure is going to be out of Japan. Well, hello, everyone, and welcome to this edition of Finance U. I'm back with Paul Kiker of Kiker Wealth Management. We have a lot to discuss today. We got the Japanese yen blowing out. There's all kinds of stuff in the new home economic data, which doesn't look so rosy if you're not into recessions. So with that, Paul, good to see you again. Good to see you as well, Chris, on this heat days of summer. So yeah, we're already in the dog days. We already had our dog days. We were up over, you know, in the 90s there for a while in June. So it's a little weird, but it's

okay. It's okay it's okay it's all right so um well let's let's start with this i know nobody really knows what this means but but let's talk about it real quick this is there's the japanese yen this is just on a one day basis it's back over that 160 mark which by the way let me push this back paul to three months see this we're first bumped up against 160. That was about a $50 billion intervention. There was another $50 billion, $30 to $50 billion. There was another one here. So this represents about somewhere around, best guess, $100 billion of intervention. And it just didn't hold. Paul, looks like it's less bang, more buck. What do you see in there?

Well, it's pretty interesting. That tells us that something's breaking in the system somewhere, and that's going to change basically what has worked for the past 10 to 15 years. So it's interesting to me that the who are known as the best currency traders in the world and with the money behind them to be able to kind of make things pan out the way they desire them to pan out or have reached the point of diminishing returns. So, you know, the question is, is how's this going to unfold in the global market? We'll see as other things start to break, but that's another canary in the coal mine right now. Yeah. You know, this is going to be, I don't know what it fully means yet, but I mean, somebody selling selling a lot of yen right now. That's all I know for sure. And so, you know, we'll have to see what that translates into.

There have been a lot of rumors and Zero Hedge reported that one of the big Japanese banks is kind of in trouble. There's a lot of banking stress out there right now. And I mean a lot. And it's centered on the commercial real estate market. Let me see if I got it in here. Oh, shoot. I put it on my other folder. Just give me a second.

Let's see if I can. Yeah. Okay. I have to find this again because this was really astonishing to me that we're seeing this much banking stress at this point in time. And I don't know what we're going to do about it. I think we're going to have to get a bailout. Paul, I think we're headed towards yet another round of quantitative easing. And I suspect it's going to be by this fall.

And it's because it's because of this. Because of this, this is no good. You know, still, there's 517 billion in unrealized losses. So the FDAC just put 63 more lenders on its problem list. This just came to us on june 2nd but you know this is this is where we're going to see uh there's clearly a lot of problems going on there and so we're starting to um hear about more and more that commercial real estate obviously we all know office buildings all that not no bueno right but we're starting to see pennies on the dollar transactions and there was a front page new york times i don't know if you caught it talking about how banks are unloading problem loans and i'm like who's the other party

yeah who's buying you know hey that that zero hedge article that you were talking about you know what about a year and a half ago after silicon valley bank and the government stepped in they made a comment and I remember remembered it. And then they followed up reminding us that they made that comment, that basically the policy actions had guaranteed that the next bank failure is going to be out of Japan. And, um, you know, and that reminded me. So at a Nikkei Asia, Japan's Norin Chukin bank, uh, will sell.

Norin Chukin? Yep. Yeah. 10 trillion yen or 63 billion of the holdings of U.S. and European government bonds during the year going into March 2025. So, you know, if that's occurring over there, they're going to have to unload and reshore their balance sheet to position around. You know, and we're globally interconnected. So it may start there and follow over here. And like you said, commercial real estate, I mean, that is, that is still cooking under the surface and people aren't paying attention to it. They just really

aren't. I mean, it's like the worst environment and for whatever reason it's not rippled through, but that's still, that's still in the birth pains with some pain that's going to be delivered to the economy. Well, I'm with you. In this stuff here, Paul, this $517 billion in unrealized losses, this is just mark to market on treasuries. I know we've made this point before, but it bears repeating. This does not include, best as I can find out, any losses on loans that reasonably, if you're fairly marking them to market, you would say, you know, I got this loan with, you know, basically it's a 70-30, so I got 70% of the equity.

They had 30% down payment, but now this building is worth maybe 25 cents on the dollar. They're not marking that gap between what they could really realistically get for that particular loan. So those losses, those losses, I think, are probably in the trillion to two trillion range at this point. It's not in that number. So how do they, how does the Fed go about fixing this, you know, one more time? Is there one more magic trick to be pulled here? I wish I knew.

They've been pretty amazing at how far they've been able to kick the can down the road so far. Now, one of the things that I would kind of mention, I think that I've wondered substantially, insurance costs have gone up across the board. They've skyrocketed for the large majority of people. But at the same time, it's not all the banks that are owning these big commercial properties because these big insurance companies will come in there and that's on their balance sheet. So they're having to absorb those losses. And, yeah, I'm sure we've had inflationary pressures and the cost of repairs has pushed those up. But, you know, is the increase in premiums, has inflation been cover for the insurance companies to try to generate extra revenue to offset some of the losses they've had on these commercial properties that they've had to just walk away from. I don't

know the answer to that, but that's something that I wonder about from time to time because they are large purchasers of big commercial buildings. Yeah, no, we know there's losses lurking there in the portfolios of the insurance companies. I just don't know how much. It's very opaque. It's hard for me to get in there and analyze that stuff i'm sure somebody knows how to i just i don't know um but i have to suspect it's happening because of the increases in all the insurance products that that i consume you know uh but fortunately paul good news uh last cpi report bls tells me that over the last year my health health insurance premiums have gone down 0.5 percent, which, you know, it's good to know because they actually went up 14 and a half percent. And it's always been double digits for the past five years.

So just it's really it's just so bad. You know, we're recording this on a Wednesday. We're going to release this on a Thursday on Thursday when somebody is watching this tonight. It's going to be the on a thursday on thursday when somebody's watching this tonight it's going to be uh the the trump biden debates right yes biden's going to do everything he can to say this is a strong economy and people are happy but let me tell you about the guy who just came to fix the excavator which which we kind of tore a hydraulic line out of yesterday longer story um you make those mistakes every now and then. You learn to pay a little closer attention to that tree. Correct. You diagnosed it 100%. So I'm talking with the guy, and I'm me, so one thing leads to another.

And within two minutes, he's saying, look, myself working the same job you're watching me at here in 2000 with a wife who stayed home and three kids said it was easier. Our kids are out of the house. My wife works and we're struggling, right? Two incomes now. And she said she's earning pretty good money, you know, and they're still struggling. So people are struggling. And I don't know how they're going to hide that during these. I mean, you can't just keep gaslighting us and telling us, you know, it's just warm out when we notice there's flames on our legs, you know, it's just not, I think people are getting fed up with it. Well, and I think they are too. And you, and you look at what's happened over the past six months, right? You know, the economy's great.

We're going to tell you how great things are, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And I was going to say, you talking about gaslighting me when I look at Twitter and I'm like, you know, respond to some of these posts. I'm like, yeah, I probably shouldn't send that. But, but the reality being is the average person is hurting. But I think those that are in the halls of power are so disconnected from the average individual that they're, and they're spending their time trying to impress people that they don't like buying things that they don't need. And they've got the revenue to do it, that they really don't understand what's taking place. Because everywhere they go, somebody's trying to buy favors from them. So where the average individual is just really, really struggling.

And that reminds me, I'll share it here. I want to go back to that post by Professor Plum, Michael Green. All right. to that post by Professor Plum, Michael Green. All right. I'll see if I can get him on the program because he would be a good guy to talk to, I think. Hey, I tell you, he really would. I've just been amazed by him. So just his knowledge and his understanding

of what's taking place in the derivative structure underneath the market, he would be a great guest. So he posts on June 24th here, one more month for this record breaking strong economy to indeed match the record for most months in contraction on the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey. Got tongue twisted there, sorry. So when I pull this up where you can see a little bit more so and if we get one more month the dallas fed manufacturing outlook survey will break the record that was set in early 2008 wow so do they manufacture anything in the dallas area you know i haven't dug into those numbers to look and see i would assume good question but um no they do they have a lot going on that that encompasses all of the all the

ports that are down there and that encompasses the oil and gas industry so yeah um speaking of which then you know maybe that maybe maybe that correlates with with this so i just tweeted this out earlier today um let me see go home go here yeah check oh yeah i forgot about that check this out this is pretty interesting to me uh so this is from peter uh bakbar talking about um u.s oil rig count. So these are the drilling rigs that are out there, a lot of them in the Dallas Fed Survey Area District. It continues to fall, and so this is pretty intense.

Like, this went from about 700 rigs down to 485, and that's a 30% decline in drilling activity, right? And that's just since December of 2022, so that's just one year, year and a half. Basically, in the last year and that's just since december of 2022 so that's just one year year and a half basically in the last year and a half we're down 30 percent drill rigs and people you know wave their hands at this paul and they tell me stuff like oh they're a lot more efficient i'm like they're not 30 percent more efficient nope they've they got those things they've been dialing it up and it's impressive and they are very efficient no argument they did not get 30 percent more efficient in the last year and a half um so what do you think is leading that is it increased

regulation by the administration that's making it less profitable where they're having to cap these is it is it wells that are going no no well i mean it's it's getting more expensive and maybe they've got a a little bit of that discipline which they should have Right. The shale industry is famous for its lack of discipline. Just drill fast as you can and flood the market and shoot yourself in both feet. So I'm glad they've got a little more discipline. But honestly, a big driver of this is the fact that the Biden administration used this SPR strategically to drive down prices for oil. They did that for political reasons. I can't think that was a very strategic thing to do, right? I don't know.

Entering all this geopolitical drama with China and Russia, Middle East, with our SPR drained, not the smartest thing as far as I'm concerned. But at any rate, when they did that, they were releasing about a million barrels a day for a chunk, and that drove prices down. And then that's during that time frame. When you're looking at it where does that really start to go down this is the spr release territory in here all this they were releasing about a million barrels a day in here um and so what happens then well

the price went down and when it goes down two things paul first is just the physical price hey it's not enough to support you know drilling in this sort of secondary area you know it's not good enough to support like only the prime so they still drilled but it wasn't so good but the other thing is is like when the fed's trying to control inflation expectations what happens is the industry is kind of looks at that they close one eye and they put the safety squint on the other eye and they're like maybe they're gonna do that again you know maybe they don't trust the prices they don't trust that this administration isn't going to politically decide to try and drive the price of oil lower again so that together the actual

price plus the expectation i think are pulling you know you're seeing that pullback which by the way it's going to lead to oil shortages, meaning higher prices in the future. Yeah, and that's a good point, because as you were explaining that, what would I do if I'm an industry insider and those forces are going to be temporary in the interim period? Well, if I've got the cash flow, I'm just going to cap off the well and I'm going to wait till prices go higher and start selling it. So that makes a lot of sense, especially because they know the supply and demand metrics. And then you throw in all this geopolitical stuff that really could skyrocket. That makes sense. And by the way, I just reminded myself,

that is how I learned carpentry from the old guys with the safety squint. You know, when you're using the skill saw. Yeah. You get it closed enough. Yeah. Yeah, that's how we rolled back in the day i'm not saying it was the right thing no i'll tell you safety glasses all the time now just because i've seen too many too many bad situations yeah but um all, well, so so this is why I think this is going to be difficult for the for Biden during the I mean, there's just tons of ammunition for Trump to use. And part of it is this, which is this is the U. Mish University of Michigan. They have something called buying conditions for houses. So they're just polling people and saying, how do you feel about it all?

People feel terrible. Look, they haven't felt this. Look, this thing, Paul, this starts in 1980. houses so that they're just polling people and saying how do you feel about it all people feel terrible look they haven't felt this look this thing paul this starts in 1980 people haven't felt this bad about buying homes since 1980 it's gonna be real hard to gaslight people into no you're just you have a bad you're just not interpreting your own experience correctly you know let us tell you how you feel about this uh that's that's pretty astonishing and and of course that's that is connected to um this idea here that we'll go into oh do do do do um nope not that one sorry uh wrong one wrong folder i gotta get the right folder because I put this in yesterday's folder, which is, you know, this idea that house prices are up.

Yeah, up 47% higher than they were in 2020. House prices, 47%. 47%. How do you start a household? What do you do? That's just. Well, it's nearly impossible unless you have family that can help you make a down payment and you're in the top 10% of earnings. You're a renter at this point because there's no other option unless you're willing to take a huge risk that these prices will not go down in the interim period. And then you're potentially take a big financial impact.

So that's one of the conversations we have around our table with the kids all the time is, you know, how in the world am I going to be able to, you know, save enough if those at the rate that those prices are going up, because what, since 2020, you could probably buy a hamburger for $10 and that same hamburger is $15 now. So every bit of your ability to save has been crunched, reduced, along with these higher house prices and higher interest rates. But what's the Fed going to do, right, Chris? If they try to bail things out and paper over the economy again, it seems that we have reached that point of diminishing returns between printing money. So then you're going to run the risk of inflation getting out of control.

And what we really need is just a good old garden variety recession and rip the bandaid off of this and let those who are prudent and are paying attention to the path that they're walking have a chance to sidestep it and let the foolish go ahead and suffer the consequences and rip that bandaid off. But I don't think they want to allow that to happen because if that, if that was to unleash before the election, well, the, the last perceived by the administration, um, benefit and their favor would be gone because they don't have that many in their favor, especially when you look at the real polling and have conversations with people that are out there right now. Yeah, it's, um, I mean, I just, I can't even believe we're at this point of having to converse as if this is like a reasonable thing to do that, that that that this debate makes sense on any level. But we'll pretend we'll go along with the charade for a moment.

But one of the things that's been really astonishing is watching the level of of. Well, I'll just put it on the table. You'll be more diplomatic. I'm sure, Paul, they've been lying to us. Right. We know they've been lying about the number of jobs. They've been lying about inflation. Frankly, I don't know what they aren't lying about. I don't even know if I trust when the EIA says we have record U.S. oil output. Why wouldn't they lie about that, too? I don't know. I just don't understand because I can't square up that falling rig data with record output, right? they just keep reporting that maybe we'll you know wake up in three years and they'll back they'll back solve that like oh yeah we should gonna have to lower that by a million barrels a day or something who knows right so so with all of that how do you navigate doing what you do and by the way I just love the fact that people can talk to you and actually talk to a financial advisor who who shares their concerns in the world that's so important so important but how do you begin to navigate when you suspect

that maybe the data isn't what it needs to be or that you can't trust it? That's a good question. It's harder and harder and harder to navigate. Now, we have tools that'll help us follow money flow because typically, and a lot of it's supply and demand, but you can see money flow that takes place. And typically the big money is going to head for the exits, you know, while they're passing everything off to the retail. So those are one of the things

that we watch and you kind of look at what sectors are leading. So there are tools that can help us gauge it. What's really concerning to me right now, and we've sped up our exit strategy quickly because we've got to play the game by the rules that are forced upon us. You know, and who knows, maybe they kick that can down the road another 12, 24 months. I mean, there are certain forces as lucky as they are in a lot of cases, and especially the reality. And this is what concerns me more than anything about the lying, Chris. You know, we've talked about this before I mean look anybody who has the courage to look at reality understands that they're lying to us they know they're lying to us and we know they're lying to us everybody knows that they're lying but there's nobody to call them out on the other side because I guess they've surrounded themselves

with enough liars of people that have justified that it's okay to lie because, you know, for whatever reason, um, you know, there's going to come a point where that's not going to work anymore. And I'm concerned that we're headed to this Wiley coyote moment to where people are running out of run, running out of runway, as far as their savings, their ability to borrow credit, you know, something's going to break. And then all of a sudden, everybody's going to realize that, you know, you can lie all you want, but reality always stands the test of time and reality is going to come back to bite you as hard as possible. So one of the things that we're trying to do to navigate through is just understand, Hey, we might miss a little bit

of opportunity, but we're in an environment when you look at from everything historically, that unless it is truly different from this point forward, or we shatter all historical limits of efficiency, you know, that, that efficient frontier, we maybe shatter all those records. Maybe it lasts a little bit longer than anybody anticipates, but we've got to be able to move quickly. Cause my concern is, is that once the, the tide turns, it's going to be a stampede for the exits. And, and as people get frozen, there's going to be a lot of people that are just fully convinced that indexing set it on the shelf and forget about it is the best way to go. Because the thing that concerns me is everybody that I talk to, even in the attempted risk

management side, it's like, well, you can go back through history and you can find any information that will help you develop a few, which is confirmation bias. That's true. You can. But if you actually look at the weight of the evidence and you're, you're critically thinking about it and each step is with fear and trembling and you're paying attention, it helps reduce that, that confirmation bias. But I think it's just so, it has so punished people for trying to be prudent because of their lying. But the difference is now everybody knows their line and they're not even ashamed of

it. Whereas 10 years ago, seven years ago, people didn't really understand their line. It's kind of like some of the doctors that I've met, you know, coming through, they trusted what information was being given to them because they trusted that I'm getting good information so that I can take care of my patients. Well, now their lives have been upended because they realize they can't trust the information that was given to them. So they're having to go find their own.

So I think we're in a situation like that to where people are waking up much faster than I think any of us realize, Chris, I really do, because there's people around here that are having, having conversations open in the gym and around that they were not having 24, 36 months ago. And the common theme is, is the markets are a joke right now. So, um, you know, it's, it's a challenging environment. We do it very carefully and very focused and with fear and trembling because you don't want to exit too early. But one thing I can tell you is if we get a signal to exit, I'm fine if we're wrong. Because if this comes apart, when I get a signal, I'm not going to hesitate. We're going to go to cash with that part of the portfolio, whatever that is.

Because that's the only way we're going to be able to miss it if it ends up being a Wiley Coyote moment, because this is a period of time where if you hesitate for a moment and you don't trust the signals that you've developed over the past 10, 15 years and you've learned to trust them, then you're going to make a mistake that can have long term consequences. Well, Mark Twain said, you know, it ain't what you don't know that hurts you. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. Right. So the thing I worry about, Paul, most is that people are certain, and I might be one of them on some level, that the Fed will bail the markets out because they've been doing it over and over again. Since 2008, they've been just in there. Every time it wiggles a little, there's the Fed riding to the rescue. I've said waggishly find somebody you know

who loves you as much as the fed loves the stock market you'll have a great relationship right they are just hyper focused on on keeping her happy um so so with that uh but what happens paul if they don't what happens if if they just for whatever, decide to step aside and everybody knows something that just ain't so, which is, oh, they'll bail this out. I'll buy the dip. And Chris, I believe you're on to something right there because everyone that I talk to is like, what does it matter? If it gets bad, the Fed's going to save the day. And that goes back to that, that Thomas Jefferson, uh, vote, uh, quote, that if you give your money over to the central banks first by inflation, and that's what concerns me about everybody believing that the feds going to take care of us because we're in an inflationary

environment. Everybody knows that from throw the textbooks out the window. If we continue going at the path that we're going right now, because history books and everything that people have learned the hard way and everything they teach you from other people's mistakes about how to wisely and prudently manage money, just throw it out. So everybody's come to that belief right now. So you're right. What happens if it's that first by inflation, they've sucked everybody into that belief and it's like, Oh, okay. We're not going to bail it out this time. Well, the market's going to be down 10 or 15. And I've seen, I've seen people go through this back in 2008, Chris, when, when things started coming apart, Hey, I'm a long-term investor. This is just volatility to

begin with the market's down 10 or 15%. Oh, it's going to come back by the dip, you know, and they're going to, they're going to find anything they can to buy that dip. They get a little bit of a rally to make them feel good. And then it's down another 15 or, you know, percent. Oh, the feds really got us going to save the day. Now you're down 30% at this point. And then all of a sudden, Oh, maybe the feds not going to save the day. Are they, are they going to do that? I don't know, but that is a risk because everybody's on the same side of the boat and the belief that the feds going to be able to bail this out. I'm on the side of the boat that, Hey, how, how really can they, because inflation has not gone away. So if you print a whole bunch of money, inflation is going to be the problem,

maybe not deflation, that's going to wreck finances. And I can tell you inflation is much, a much greater evil to the citizenry of a country than deflation. Because if deflation occurs and you're prudent, then you've increased your purchasing power because you've been able to protect your assets. If deflation occurs, and the great thing about our country is, you can bankrupt without going to jail. You know, let those banks that predatory lended on you pay the price for that, okay? Somebody's going to pick up the assets and we'll build again. But if we break out into an inflationary holoca be, that's going to be misery to everyone. And even at the top, at some,

at some point it's going to reach them. So, you know, are they in a corner? I don't know. Well, speaking of corners, I mean, I mean, this is what it looks like in chart form. This is Canada, Canada's rent prices year over year. This starts in 1992, rent prices somewhere between three percent gets down to one percent two percent one two one two one uh-oh there's 2020 right boom comes down look at this look at this horrifying this is what they've done to the people of canada this is this is destroying canadian households full stop terrible it's awful and and they just don't have enough

and this is in part paul um self-inflicted pew pew both feet right you know because to get houses built or multi-family built in canada is just this regulatory nightmare when i go to canada i notice it's like 40 million people in 40 million acres of untouched land. It's just like they got land. So it's not a land problem. They've got a government problem up there, and it's bad. But it's leading to this. This is terrible. You're right.

Inflation is ruinous to families. But I don't see anything to slow that chart down at present. That thing's doing what it's doing. But if we were honest we'd have a similar chart for the united states wouldn't look all that dissimilar but we made lying to ourselves something of an art form we sure have that well and the thing that concerns me is you take you take a large part of the baby boomer population and the people that have got the assets this is a good environment for them because hey i, I'm making a fortune on rent. I'm able to do more things than I was before.

And it's sucking all the wealth out of the younger generation while at the same time they're accumulating all of this government debt, which has helped that generation, that they're just going to shed and leave behind to the generation that's behind them. So they are not passing a better environment down, but there's also an arrogance, unfortunately, with a large majority of that core, uh, that generation, because they really don't understand what the kids are facing today, because it's hard to imagine, you know, I'm a big believer that unless you have walked the shoes of somebody,

you know, like I have clients that have lost children. I have clients that have lost spouses. I've not lost a child by God's grace or lost a spouse. We're all going to face that at some point in the future. So what is it you can empathize? You can sympathize, but you can't empathize because you've not walked in those shoes. It's hard for the leaders that are there now, because it was much more opportunity when they were at the age of the

20 to 30 year olds back then than what there is now and their money purchased more. And, uh, you know, I wish I could find, cause that made me think about it. You know, if you were making a hundred thousand dollars a year in 1990, you know, or 2000, that was substantially greater purchasing power than what it is today. So, you know, and what concerns me the most is I was thinking about this, my wife and I have this conversation a lot and I read Ecclesiastes the first time I'll never forget, you know, so, so, so the author, which I believe was, um, saw him at the time challenges the readers as a wise person thinks about death, but a fool only thinks about having fun. And, you know, there's more implications than that. We really need to ponder the path of

our feet. And we go back to where Proverbs tells us the prudent for sea danger and hide themselves while the simple pass on or judge for it. So my wife gives me a hard time because I'm like, you know, I'll tell the kids each year. I'm like, hey, guys, something happens to me. God calls me home. I love you. And she's like, you're morbid. You're thinking about death. But it makes me focus on doing what's right now, making sure those that are around that you love and pondering the path of our feet.

And we're just not doing that as a country right now. And we're not doing that as generations because we're having fun. And we think this is just all sunshine and rainbows, but we've got a rot under the surface of our economy that's going to bring a lot of pain. And it'd be much easier to go ahead and let a recession come now and get the pain out of the way while it's manageable, then to keep trying to kick this can down the road to where it's unmanageable and the pain is greater than anybody imagines that they're going to have to bear on the other side of it. Yeah, that's where we're headed at this point. I mean, that's why I do what I do, Paul.

I just want people to, I had a very indelicate way of putting this on a call with Nick this morning. But but listen, we're all going to experience that pain. And I just generation, this many decades of just being dummies. Right. And so we have the monetary policy accidents. We've got fiscal policy accidents. You know, we let too many corporations drive the ship of state for too long. And now we don't know how to get them out of there. I'm thinking of the military industrial complex, you know, whatever they need, they get, you know whatever they need they get you know um and so that's just impoverishing us as a nation fine okay so so we're going to get there but meanwhile the thing that that i find really hard back to something i said earlier is um well you know what let me let me spin it on the positive side i love the fact that these are manipulated markets you know why because i get to buy silver on the cheap you know um because because we have a system that just, in the United States, we sell silver, particularly on Fridays, particularly after the other markets have closed. We just throw paper at it. It's just what we do. But that allows me to buy more. And I know they're trying to control the psychology of it, and they don't want people seeing certain

prices of certain things getting out of control. And whatever reason you know oil copper gold silver are things that they spend a lot of time focusing on um that just gives me more opportunities to get out of their out of their uh paper promise tickets aka dollars and that's fine i am convinced paul that that you talked about that bed the rock in the hard place. They don't have any choices here. They're going to have to. When the people say, oh, they're going to lower interest rates. I was reading on Bloomberg today that traders are betting on average that that's 300 basis points by March of next year.

They're going to lower this to, you know, two and a quarter percent instead of from its five and a quarter. Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. But even with that that that's not what i i don't care that the the interest rate is no longer relevant when's the fed gonna start their quantitative easing again when are they gonna have to start blowing up their balance sheet again right that's what i care about i think that's coming before the end of the year and when it does that will be my walk don't run flashing sign Go, just get these dollars out, just go do something, right?

You're going to have to protect yourself from that. That's going to be, that's, I think, the last act in the dollar story. Well, and it might take years, but it'll start. You're right. And the thing is, is there's such ridiculous opportunity that's out there right now. I mean, for the past 16 years, the Goldman Commodities Index in general is down 5%, I think. But it's negative from what it was January 1st, 2008. So it's built this environment where everybody's chasing sunshines and rainbows, whether they know it or not.

And this is what I always tell people. If you're listening and you're concerned. Just ask your advisor, what would cause you to go to 0 because I want to get to know them because there's far and few between. But the reality is everybody's basically been forced into, hey, let's go gather a lot of assets. We've got these cookie cutter approaches that we're going to explain to you. And don't worry about it. It's always going to come back. It didn't for those in the Nikkei index. If you were a Japanese citizen in 1989, it didn't for those that, that occurred during the great depression. If you were 70

years old, it was 25 years later. Yeah. That the markets got back to even, but, but what if you're taking distributions off of that? You're 70, you'd had to live the 95 just to not draw off the portfolio to see it get back to even and if you're drawing off that portfolio then your life was probably upended because you had a lot more life left when the checks started bouncing i want to get your impression of this because the kobe essie letter gets me every time this is from june 24th yet another another crazy tech stock stat. S&P 500 technology sector, so that's a subcomponent of the S&P 500. Price to sales ratio.

10x. Price to sales. Not price to earnings. Price to sales. The ratio exceeded the previous 2021 record. Now higher than the dot-com bubble, obviously. Look at this. Yeah.

This last little gas, this is where it started selling off here and that's uh october 30th of 2023 something happened somebody somebody just started throwing mass quantities of liquidity into the marketplace and it's giving us this you know big old burst right here but people are buying it paul people good good hard-working people are you know getting in that you can't't make, you can't, there's just, there's no future I'm aware of where you can say, oh, here's why that makes sense. I'm going to pay 10 times sales. Because again, if you said earnings, I'll just make a number up. If earnings are 10% of sales, you're now paying, that's an average PE of 100.

That's 10 times 10. I'm trying. Crazy. Wild. And we have to pretend like this a hundred. It's 10 times 10. Crazy. Wild. And we have to pretend like this is normal. It's not, this is not normal. No,

it's not. It's not normal. And people will forget, Oh, Hey, you know, is it different this time? Even that cyclical when you look back through history.

So let's say it sets a little higher low than what it did in the 1990s. The reality is it was 14 years from the year 2000 before the market got back to even. And Amazon, as an example, is a behemoth as far as market share compared to what they had back then. But even that stock cratered on the other side of it. So investors are making this. The problem is, the reason that we go through these cycles is it's our human weaknesses. It's our emotions. It's generations making the same mistake because they think that the generation before them is not quite as smart as they are. So, yeah, that's just, that's insane.

Here's the thing that made me think, though, Chris. You go back, because I've been thinking, I guess it's running in my subconscious in the background. What if the fed doesn't raise rates? Let's go back to November of 2023. You remember what changed the market? Uh, fed chairman came out and basically announced that he was going to cut rates, right? You know, Hey, you know, all of a sudden out of the blue, you and I both were kind of I was blown away that that happened. Well, that was the jawbone. And but then the financial conditions eased to easier than it was at the height of the covid pandemic somehow. Yes, that's plumbing.

That happens behind the scenes. That's more than just flapping your gums and saying we plan to cut. Well, a lot of that has to do with what the Treasury Secretary Yellen did as well in the background to try to kind of manipulate things. But here's the question I'll ask. Has he cut rates yet? And the market basically front ran that and anticipated. And that's what everybody's thinking. It's like, okay, the Fed's going to cut rates.

Fed's going to cut rates. Well, he said he was going to back then. And, of course, liquidity increased because of what the Treasury Secretary was doing and maturities and issuances and things like that. But here the market has just surged to all time highs and we don't have those rate cuts yet. So have they already priced in all of these rate cuts that we're supposedly gonna get? And if they do come,

are they gonna have the impact that everybody's anticipating? And if they don't come, does that set up the Wiley Coyote moment? I don't know. It's kind of like when we sit, you know, from my seat, it's like, I have tools that are going to tell me when I need to slam the brakes on. You know, we've got yellow, there's yellow lights across the board right now.

I will say that. So it's like foot on the brakes, ready to slam the brakes in a hurry. But, um, and you're hyper aware. But this is going to be fascinating because we're living in a period of time that history books are going to be very, very harsh on the fools and very rewarding of the wise. And we had our warnings, though, Paul. We had our warnings. Again, Kobe Essie letter. This is from June 25th. Just in retail sales on track for second consecutive quarter of year over year declines,th. Just in retail sales on track for second consecutive quarter of year over year declines, U.S. retail sales adjusting for inflation fell by 0.9% in May and

are now 3.8% below the 2021 April peak. So you see here every single time retail sales trend down, you get one of these gray bars, which is a recession, right? That's just how this works. But this time different, I guess guess we don't know what's going on here i i suspect shenanigans i think we're not accurately recording stuff and behind the scenes they're doing everything they can to keep it the appearance of growth that includes paul 6.8 percent of gdp is now deficit spending by the u.s government if you just put took that back to flat right we would be in a 6.8% heavy duty capital R recession. Things would be cratering. So the government's just throwing

money, just borrowing like crazy, throwing it in like crazy, you know? Yeah. Yeah. For political purposes, with the justification that we're trying to help the people. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I don't know what you made of it, but, you know, I just talked today on a scouting report about told the Biden administration, you can't you can't cancel people's student debt which really means just transfer it to other people right you can't do that that's that's a matter of appropriations that's a congressional thing that's not an executive thing he did it anyway nothing happened right well i mean what's the supreme court going to do send their bailiff to go arrest the president i don't know right but it's speaking increasingly that like Paul, I'm getting the sense they're just making it up as they go along here. I don't think there's adults in the room in these decisions anymore. Well, and here's the thing that concerns me.

There's no respect for the rule of law. There's no respect for the average individual. It's I can do whatever I want so that I can get what I desire. That's really what it boils down to. They desire to be in power. They'll cross any line. And obviously there's no honesty in the importance of honesty and truth is not integrity to them. And so that they can't view the world through eyes of reality because they're so distorted their mental process. And, you know, and that just amazes me that it's okay to suppress information.

It's okay. You know, and that's going to come for everyone at some point, because if it's okay for them to do it in one area, now, all of a sudden, it's going to be okay for them to do it in every area where the only thing that we're able to think is exactly what they think that we should think. And that's not what creates us great. You know, I mean,

my best friends are the ones that, that will challenge me. If I'm headed down a wrong direction, they're the ones that care enough about me to risk hurting my feelings and run a relationship because they see me headed down a path that I don't want to go. And as parents, that's what we're supposed to do for our children. And that's what we should supposed to do as community. Iron sharpens iron. There's

stress that takes place there and they don't want to have any stress. They want to have us do and think exactly what they think to cover up their own lives so they can live the way they want to live. You know, Paul, I did TAing for a while when I was in my grad program. So, but I always had the sense that I was there serving the people I was teaching. It's a service role. Government seems to have lost the plot here. We're here to pay taxes so they can do whatever the heck they feel like doing, and then they get to hide everything from us because they're not really beholden to us. They don't owe us anything in return, I guess. That's how it feels to me right now. And of course, you know, there's a crew of people working hard to double down on that. Now, here's the problem. To get there, Paul, they've normalized, if not hyper normalized, lying. Yeah. Right. And we saw it in the inflation statistics. It's in the jobs report. I can go on and on and I can prove it. Right. Absolute guarantee. OK. But it's kind of like we're trying to fly our economic plane with our instruments are all wrong. Our altimeters off by 5000 feet. Is that a problem? Well, when you get to the Rockies, it might be, you know. So that's how I see it right now. We're just like, this is just like, just groping around in the

dark. It's no good, no good. So, so I want people to understand that and be just, just be protected because they're going to hit it. They're going to hit something sooner or later. Just well, they are. Well, and that reminds me of an out analogy that I shared with somebody who was in the airline industry that asked me to kind of what separates y'all. And I said, well, modern portfolio theory is not going to reduce risk. The argument is diversification. So what they're going to say is if you're flying from Atlanta to San Francisco and there's a thunderstorm that's pretty severe, they're going to flip on the seatbelt sign, if you're lucky.

Buckle yourself in. It's going to be a rough ride. We're going to go right through it. But what commercial airlines have learned for the equipment, their passengers, and the safe journey is if a pilot is instrument rated and has tools that tells them when to make an adaptation, they see that thunderstorm and they take the path of least volatility around it, even if it takes a little bit longer. So, cause the reality is you, you have a greater chance of getting at your destination say, and you know, I always think about that and the tools

that we use. Cause I landed in Atlanta one time in the midst of a hurricane and hurricane coming through Atlanta. And, and it terrified me because I kept looking for the runway, looking for the runway and I felt this land and I never saw the runway. I'm not the type of person to do this, but when I walk past the pilot, you know, I'm like, I'm not a hugger, but I would hug you because how you landed that plane, I don't know. And he said, oh, instruments make it easy. And I'm like, okay, great. You want to have somebody that's instrument rated, but that's so, I know that's completely off subject, but it came to mind when you were sharing that analogy. Cause I was sharing that with somebody in the airline industry and it resonated with them because they're like yeah you're right there's no way I'm going to fly right through the middle of a

a thunderstorm and put our our passengers through that volatility and the risk of things going bad because I have tools that can help me navigate around it. Yeah. Well, well, speaking of which, there's so much that we have to control for now, including the idea that we have bad data, but also that maybe the legal system has gotten a little corrupted along the way, you know, and you and I, when we went through the great taking webinar, by the way, great feedback from that. So anybody who wants to watch that, it's all recorded. You can, you know, you can get access to that back at Peak Prosperity. But we talk about seven different strategies you can pursue to help reduce your risk.

Our vision is just don't be low hanging fruit. Right. I think people, unfortunately, Paul, are going to have to understand that they're going to have to put more effort into making sure that they're not a victim of a scam these days. Right. And the scams have gotten sophisticated. Right. I think even the Federal Reserve just fell victim, if I'm right, what I was reading on 4chan. Apparently, they lost 33 terabytes of banking data to somebody. Right. So scams. Yeah. Did you hear about that? I don't know how important it here. Yeah. Did you hear about that? I don't know how important it here. Yeah. Supposedly they, they had the goods.

If they didn't get paid on information that they were willing to release, I was kind of hoping their information would get released quite frankly. But anyway, I'm just curious. He's out of the Caymans. Yeah. Was that okay for me to say that? Well, I was, if it wasn't illegal paul i would have i would have opened up a crowdfund to see if we couldn't like exceed the the feds offer how much insider trading is actually taking place back there yeah i just want to know i'm just i'm

curious it's more from a reporter's sort of a point. Let me see if I can pull that up because this is interesting. Hey, while you're pulling that up, interrupt me when you get there. But we actually had a team meeting today talking but just how many wire frauds taking place. And I can't tell you how many individuals who are being scammed nowadays. And we're constantly having to put protocols in place to protect against it. that even the average American doesn't want on the rest of the world was spent to educate and deal with these hackers and these frauds that are taking place, how much safer the average individual would feel. Yeah. Yeah. On that front, first, before I forget, oh, gosh, we have so much good content going out these days. Yeah. All right. So so for for that, Paul, this is really important. So Glenn Meter achieving online security and privacy. We just talked about this, this whole idea of how sophisticated the scams are. And Glenn's got a great there's a webinar coming up here, which he'll offer to the peak prosperityperity community. People can just come sign up for it. It's free. You just come to the site, click on this link here for the free webinar,

and it'll take you through all the stuff that can actually begin to help increase two things. I like the way he parsed this, Paul. He talked about security and privacy. There's a little overlap in those because if you have more privacy so you tend to have more security because that's one of the things these online hackers are so sophisticated about one of the things they do now paul is they they will mimic the voice of a loved one using ai and have that loved one call you in a panic from the police station. It's just a little weird that the police want Apple gift cards, I guess. So I don't know, but you know, I can't wait to listen to his, I haven't listened to his,

but I did listen to Tracy's, but Renee came back and that's a good one as well. That's great content. That's a great one. That one. Yeah. That one was, that one's made a big impact so far. Back to the security. So Renee came back from a training conference yesterday, and they said, the one thing you need to pay attention is you get a wire request, and then they immediately reach out and call because they've spoofed the number. There's technology to spoof the number now. And with AI, they can mimic the voice. And so we're having to put extra protocols in place so i

cannot wait to listen to your interview with brett um that's on my list already and um glenn tracy glenn sorry glenn yes yes yeah um yeah so that yeah that's a good one too um god they're both good so so yeah tracy stuff on food security, we're just sort of like getting abused on all fronts. So it's astonishing what's happening there. And then so unfortunately, I've also had outreach from people I know who've fallen victim to some of these scams. They're very sophisticated. And by the way, this is the Federal Reserve. LockBit 3.0, a hacking group, claims that they've – it's all over the news right now. I can't verify how true or not it is, but lots of people are reporting it, that it's true.

And here's apparently a screenshot of the Fed's site and what they've lost. So if they did lose a lot of data, I'll bet you anything, Paul, if this is real, you don't hear one more thing about it. It will disappear. The Fed quietly wires some free money out of thin air to somebody, and that's the last you hear about it, and we'll be embarrassed. As you know, people are sometimes after they get hacked. But it could be anything, right? So it's just one of those threats. So, sure, anything. I mean, if and Glenn had some great points to make, he said, look, if you're with a bank that person was you'd be shocked how bad it is

inside these places just now how how yeah how 1990s it all is but it's it's it's astonishing yeah so trust trust few yeah trust yeah trust few i mean it's it's just a sign of the degradation morally of our society when when we as a people are willing to accept a government that lies so openly without any shame yeah i know so but hey it, it opens up incredible opportunity for those who are willing to, to, to take the discipline and the patience to walk the path less traveled because the reality is, is as things come apart, we're all going to be, nobody's going to come out of this unscathed, but some will be in a position because of their prudence and their willingness to find others and their courage to embrace the truth,

to put themselves and their family in a far better position, what they otherwise would, which could make a difference for generations down the road. So, so it, this is a time of great risk, but great opportunity as well. And quite frankly, I know you enjoy what you do.

I love the opportunity to talk to people and have honest conversations. And you being a watchman out there that takes the time, it amazes me the research you do. I wonder, do you sleep like two hours a night? Roughly. me the research you don't wonder do you sleep like two hours a night roughly but you know to be able to impact the lives of people because what you're doing in in the truth and the work that you're doing is is going to make a difference for generations to come for those who who you've been able to to open their eyes and help to see and And from our standpoint, I hope that that's a difference. We make a difference for generations to come for, you know, Ben having the courage to walk the path less traveled. So yeah, it's wonderful to meet all the people we're meeting.

Yeah. Oh, it's just, it's fab. But, but speaking of that, I'd love to get your point of view on this because this is the tenor of my conversations of late. So I was up at Porkfest and I'm talking with all sorts of people up there. They're very libertarian oriented. Wherever I go, I'm starting to have this conversation, Paul, where people are starting to say, you know what? This is starting to feel like a spiritual battle. And we're kind of being asked to self-sort into teams, right? Pick a jersey color and and um and i actually think that's what we're up against now is the people of integrity are all going to select one jersey and there's all these

other folks out there saying stuff that's just frankly i i don't understand it it's slightly at all i know which team i'm on you know um but i'm wondering if you're if you're starting to are people starting to segregate like that for you? They really are. They really are. And I'm having a lot of conversation. I think we're to the point where the only way you can define it is good and evil, a battle between good and evil. So there are people who are coming back to the roots of the things because, you know, we're human. From a Christian point of view. I'm saved by God's

grace. I still sin. I still make mistakes. Paul said, I do the things that I don't want to do, but we try constantly ask forgiveness, keep pursuing better, get better. Don't make the same mistakes that you did before. The Bible says like a dog, don't return to your vomit when you make a mistake in that sin. So, you know, there's a time where, where we're living in integrity and you can see humanness within the church and that drives people away. And then all of a sudden we end up in a path here where, where that lack of fear of God, that lack of faith, that lack of understanding the importance of the biblical values puts it in perspective. There's human sins where people will fall and they're going to make mistakes and they're going to let you down. And then there's

societal sins that happen before a nation collapses. And yes, I do think you stated that very, that question very eloquently to help kind of open my mind up to everything that's going around. I'm having all kinds of conversation that people are back to reading their Bible again. They're asking the Lord for wisdom. They're seeking that path. And then there's others that are, that are just like, you know, I had a conversation with somebody I care deeply about not too long ago, just trying to kind of warn them and open their eyes to some things that are going on. And they're like, you know, we see the world from two completely different points of view. They're going to take care of us. Everything's going to be fine. All of you negative people, you know, all of you negative people, y'all just, you know, the world

has a, you know, if we end up in problems, it's because y'all are being negative. And I'm like, no, I'm not being negative. I'm trying to find the path of prudence and a solid foundation. I don't want to talk about it. If we're going to stay friends, let's just leave it at that. So, you know, hopefully they'll change their mind, but we've never had a conversation that defining before, uh, throughout time. So yeah, I think you're right. I think I am seeing that defining line. Yeah, I, I, I sure am. And it, and it's, and it's just, it's just bizarre. I don't. You can feel that you will. You shall know them by their fruits. Right. So. So I don't even know what to do with this. Paul Denmark just isn't Financial Times today. Denmark to charge farmers 100 euros a cow in first carbon tax on agriculture now i have cows boy would this piss me off um and i'm i'm mad i'm mad for for the for the denmarkian farmers out there i mean this is just this is insane this is literally insane right so the people who would say oh oh you naysayers you know we have to

i'm sure the bureaucrats who put that set that hundred euro charge know exactly what they're doing and why. No, they don't. They have no idea. These are people three generations removed, Paul, from having any dirt under their fingernails. They don't know what they don't even know what farming is involved in. All they know is that food comes out of a grocery store and that this makes sense to them because, you know what? Farmers don't punch back. They would never dare put that same hundred euros meaningless as it is on private jets you know why because those people punch back that's right so it's just this is weak people and weak people lead to hard times that's what i see i see hard times coming i look at that paul i'm like okay it's offensive on a lot of levels but it's's weak. It's weak. So they can make themselves feel better and,

and justify their own actions or virtue signaling is what it is. It's like, Oh, we're doing this because we're going to make a difference down the road. How foolish can you be? Cause you look at the debt you're laying on the next generation. You look at the regulations you're putting on the average individual, and you don't even understand that these farmers are basically supplying the food through the supply chain that allows you to live the, you know, sunshine and rainbows lifestyle that you're living. Indeed. So with that, you know, I i just same old admonition as ever just i want people to be prepared the first thing is just getting your heart and your your mind around it's emotional preparation more than anything you know an interesting conversation so i had one talk

sort of um they asked me to fill a spot so so my um my chosen topic was you know you should be prepared but you're not gonna. So let's talk about why not. That's a good topic. How did that go? Pretty well, you know, because, you know, it's really it's it's it's that listen, in fast moving times like this, you have to make decisions on imperfect information, which makes it extra hard. Right. Decisions always have imperfect information. I mean, it's really imperfect. Right. We don't even know if we can trust the base data that we're reacting to, right? Let alone, what do you do about that? So it's so still no decision is a decision,

right? You're standing in the bottom of the Valley and the cornice let's go. And there's an avalanche coming down, not moving is a decision, right? So, so you still have to, you still have to keep, keep things moving along and it's life, you know, so, so you still have to you still have to keep keep things moving along in its life you know so so you got to keep things moving anyway but um but what stops people paul from taking that step of picking up the phone calling you you know putting extra stuff in their deep pantry you know finally pulling the trigger on maybe some food that they should you know storage food that they could put in the basement anything the thing that stops them is not the money it's not the data it's that emotionally they haven't gotten to the point where by doing that action they're going to have to on some level face up to the idea that their concerns have validity yeah once that starts

that's a big old process and it's not intellectual it's an emotional process it means belief systems are breaking down like my belief that my government is is fundamentally unbalanced made of good people just trying to do the best they can right uh eventually you get to a point where you're like that was eight bad things in a row i'm getting i'm starting to suspect this is an unfair coin you know yeah and and that's hard so it's an emotional thing so that's where the conversation went it's it's around this idea of stuff called adjustment reactions which i've talked about plenty in my video series but but that is that is that is the work um that is really before us is helping people adjust yeah um as as soon as they can and i know it's hard i know it's hard it really is it's hard. It really is.

Because none of us want to look crazy. We don't want to overreact. We don't want to, you know, make a misstep, you know, when everything seems to count so much more. But again, not not doing something is doing something in this story. You're right. Well, you know, when we did the great taking, uh, the great taking my segment, I spent some time and I really spent a lot of time kind of praying, is this the right thing to do? And, and, and I, and I feel like it was, I spent some time saying, you know, don't make an emotional decision, you know, at a fear or greed on either side, because we gotta, we gotta come down to logic. Cause you know, and that's, that's one of the things I have conversations with people. If they're, if they're, if they're just opened up to this and they're in that panic moment,

I'm like, okay, I'm looking out. Does it look like we have time? Yes. Take a little bit of time. Let's talk through this and let's walk through this and make a wise decision. So you're right. There are times you have to make a panic decision, you know, fight or flight. You have to, but, um, but, but like you're saying, having that courage to take that first

step and fill those emotions and process through that, that first step, even that first step, I guess, Peterson talks about like that with his, with some people just taking that first step, whatever it is, maybe it's just sit down on Saturday or Sunday morning, promise yourself that you're going to take 30 or 45 minutes, a piece of paper, and just tell yourself, I want to have the courage to let my thoughts come out. What should I, what am I not doing that I know that I should do? And then? And then just set it on the shelf. And then if you do that on Saturday morning, Sunday morning, get up and make a list. These are the first steps that I'm going to take and take that first step, even if it's tiny.

That's the point you're getting to, right? Am I correct there? Take that first step and overcome that emotion. And that's the reason why people don't. Is that kind of the basis of your talk? Yeah, the first step is the hardest. It is. It's just the hardest, right? And, you know, I tell this story that was interesting, too, which is this is back in 2009. I've been at this a while. And this was just post the banking crisis, right? And a guy comes up to me in the audience. I'm out in Denver giving a talk. And the guy comes up to me in the audience. I'm out in Denver giving a talk.

And the guy comes up during one of the breaks and says, hey, you cost me my relationship. I'm like, oh, how'd that happen? He said, well, you know, you said you should get some cash out of the bank. So I did. And I came home and I told my girlfriend, I got this cash out of the bank. She's like, why'd you do that? And he said, well, you know, because the banking system might collapse. I don't know, you know.

And that was really offensive to her. And it led to this whole giant argument. And so she couldn't handle the thought, Paul. She just didn't like the idea of what that represented. And so he's like, yeah, that relationship ended on the basis of that action. I said, so let me ask a question. What would have happened if you brought the same amount of cash back and said hey honey we're going to the caribbean with this and he said oh yeah no we'd

still be together right she would love that right so wasn't the action itself it was the it was what it represented it wasn't the money out of the bank. That wasn't the problem. The problem was the why, right? And so that's where the belief systems came in, right? So go to the Caribbean, fine. Banking system you're not sure about, okay, that's a threat to my worldview. And that's what we're talking about here is that. So taking that first little step, whatever it is, you often have to confront that worldview. that's where that's where the that's where the work really is very well said very very well said that was a very clear picture that's right so yeah so anyway there's that oh um before we go i do want to just mention very quickly the next time you and i will be seeing each other in in a oh we're going to limitless right yes we are see

you at limitless uh which is ken is Ken McElroy's thing. Anybody wants to do that? Um, Chris 10, we'll get you 10% off of that. Go to limitless dot limitless expo.com. I think, uh,

Ken McElroy's, that's a great thing for anybody who's into finance or, or investing or real estate or any of that stuff. He just gets great people. I just love the, it's a good adventure. And then after that, I'll see you at,

um, at our summit or peak prosperity summit up in New Hampshire where, Oh boy, we have some really good, we got some really good stuff planned this year. Um, and so that's going to be our, our big gathering of like-minded souls on the beautiful shores of Lake Winnipesaukee, New Hampshire during leaf season. So lots of reasons to consider that, but I'm, I'm getting very excited for that. I am too. And, and I've actually talked to a lot of people who are planning on going. So I'm like, you need to buy the tickets now before they get sold out. And, uh, and I'm excited as well,

because I was, uh, sharing the family. We were talking this weekend cause all the family was kind of together and I was sharing, sharing with them your, uh, Bayesian experiment. Is that what it's going to be? If you're talking about Bayesian experiment and my oldest son, he's like, dad, I want to go. Can I go? I'm like, yeah, you're going. So I got to work out those details now, but he, but he's planning on coming up.

So I'm excited about that. Yeah. So what Paul's talking about is we're going to run, I think we'll, we'll have, you know, three, 400 people there. And what we're going to do is we're going to tap into the collective wisdom of the crowd to get asked the question about what do you think is going to unfold in the future and then when right and and and we'll have a uh the bayesian experiment refers to the statistics of everybody's their own individual calculating machine and i I believe Paul in the wisdom of the crowd, not my own stuff. I have my own worry about confirmation bias, not, you know, all that.

I want to see what all these people who are very smart people, by the way, and connected, I want to see what they think on aggregate, you know, and so we're going to run that experiment. It's going to be a lot of fun. That that's going to be exciting. So, you know, and back to that, that's why I think free markets are so important and why it's such an evil when the government steps in and messes with the signals because we are smarter collectively and a free market will find the most efficient way to accomplish something which betters our quality of life. And, and that's why central planning, that's why, you know, socialist societies have not worked elite. Few think they know better than everybody else when the free market, Hey,

yeah, you can't control it, but let it work out. It's better for all people involved. So I'm excited about that. That's going to be a great event. You know, last year was my first time attending the event and it was, it was fantastic. So I'm looking forward to the time attending the event, and it was fantastic. So I'm looking forward to the people, the conversations, the content that you have there. And I'm already working towards, I've got it on my idea board, formulating what we'll be sharing. So it's going to be a fun time.

Excellent. Well, looking forward to that. And for anybody who wants to have a great conversation with Paul and his team about your own portfolio, go to peakfinancialinvesting.com, fill out a simple form. Somebody from Paul's team will get in contact with you within 48 business hours, a couple business days. So with that, Paul, thanks again for your time today. It's my honor. Always a pleasure, Chris.

Likewise. All right. Until next time, everyone, signing off and, you know, leave comments down below and come by Peak Prosperity to have a fuller conversation. Can't wait to have it. Bye-bye. Hello, Chris Martinson. I'm the CEO of Peak Prosperity and also Peak Financial Investing. And after watching that, you're probably wondering, well, what do I do with my money? Look, you both deserve and need somebody who can talk to you about what's really going on in this world, understand the situation as it is, not be steering you towards certain things that don't make sense for you or just keep you in a game that's already ended. Look, if you want to talk to somebody about the petrodollar declining or what is happening

with gold or which sectors are actually the best ones to be. And given what the Federal Reserve is up to or the federal government, you deserve to talk to somebody who can answer those and has a few gray hairs and has been there through some of the economic cycles because, hey, we're in another economic cycle. So it's good to have that experience. Fortunately, at Peak Financial Investing, what we do is we go out and we scour and we look for the very best firms out there who satisfy one thing above all else. They've got great experience coupled to great customer service. So if you want to come by peakfinancialinvesting.com, there's a very simple form you can fill out. Just a few fields. You hit send. What happens is an email gets triggered out. It goes to an endorsed firm of ours. You will get an email back. You hit send. What happens is an email gets triggered out. It goes to an endorsed firm of ours. You will get an email back. You can then set up a phone call for a 30 to 45 minute free,

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