Peak Prosperity - Finance U: Why Everyone Needs A Plan Right Now

Episode Date: August 16, 2024

The equity markets are going to have a hefty correction at some point…but the signs say “not yet.” At times like these, having a defined strategy with rock-solid rules is essential.

Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice. It is for educational purposes only. Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full. This is the game that we're forced to play. We don't get to choose the rules. So if I can't trust what's being put out of the propaganda pieces and the bubble vision and things like that, what can I trust? The following is the audio version of a video released at peakprosperity.com. Visit peakprosperity.com to watch the video and to find other insightful

content such as articles, discussion forums, and exclusive subscriber-only content. Welcome to this Finance U, everybody. I am Chris Martinson. I am the CEO of Peak Financial Investing, also Peak Prosperity. Paul Kiker of Kiker Wealth Management. Paul, good to see you. Good to see you as well, Chris. It's always a pleasure. Yeah, every week, you know, August is supposed to be our slow month. I was promising myself I was going to take a little bit of August off. I've just i broke my promise to myself apparently i'm an untrustworthy partner uh but it's been boy the things going on i don't know where to start but paul one of the things that's been catching me is just how blatant all the lying has been lately it's just i know the phrases were in this post

truth world ha ha ha but the lies it's just been astonishing. They're lying about everything now, everything, shamelessly, not even trying to hide it. And I'm just wondering how that's been landing on you lately. Oh, it's had me just so frustrated, so heartbroken over what's taking place in society, and just shocked at the fact that the major media sources aren't even trying to hide the fact that they're lying. They don't care that we know and, and the lack of shame around it. And, and, and then even more so just the willingness of, you know, I don't know what it's necessarily the average person or the lack of outrage in the centers of power over the fact that they're lying.

I mean, even, even the opposite side is not trying to take advantage of it. I mean, they're pointing it out a little bit, but, but it's, it's, um, and it's probably some of the conversations I've had with people here over the past two weeks have been heavy on my heart just because they're individuals that are new to this world, right? Like they've been going about their lives. They've been fighting, working, raising their families, trying to be good citizens, trying to take advantage of the American dream. And they've been successful, but now all of a sudden they're realizing that their perception of the world is not what they thought that it would be. And they're having this,

these complete crises. So I've, I've spent, you know, a lot of times just kind of encouraging people, look, control the things that you can control, focus on these things, you know, don't let it get overwhelmed, spend some time praying, asking the Lord for guidance and strength, and just make a mental decision that you will choose to love the truth and, and have the courage to follow that truth, wherever it will take you. That's all we can do in society now, because that is the rarity in society today. I agree. I think that the people who think that way, same as you, we're starting to find each other. Cause it's getting,

it's pretty obvious we're at the late stage of this game you know and the the gloves have come off as such as it were the masks have fallen so now now we can see what's up and it's it's pretty astonishing to me paul that some people are telling us flat out i want to belong to what i call team evil right these are the they just want to belong to the team that lives on lies and deceptions. And they don't, they're really good at breaking stuff. They're not so good at building stuff. That's kind of how I characterize them, right?

You know, they want my stuff. If you work hard, they want it because they deserve it for some, I don't know. It's just, it's a very broken mindset. And, you know, humans have been here many, many times in the past, and we're just going through it um and i feel fortunate to have grown up when i did because i grew up during not one of those times i can't even imagine what weighs on my heart is young people today having to grow up into this because there's no no center no ground no nothing's firm like where where are your wise elders with integrity leading a firm direction that,

that it's coherent, you know, kind of in short supply. Well, and I think to an extent too. So one of my favorite books of the Bible is the book of Proverbs and, and there's, there's really five people that it talks about in the book of Proverbs. So there's the simple, and unfortunately that doesn't necessarily mean that somebody's mentally simple. It's just that doesn't necessarily mean that somebody's mentally simple. It's just that they're not thinking deeply about things. And there's still a lot of people in our country right now that aren't thinking deeply about things.

And they don't necessarily want to think hard because of the courage it takes to really accept the truth of the lies that are taking place. So there's the simple, and then there's the fool. So the fool's making a little bit more of a choice. They're just being foolish because that, you know, it helps their career. It helps them operate in today's society because they're chasing the wrong things. And then there's the scoffer and the scoffer are those that are the openly kind of have chosen to be evil. In my opinion, now, this is just my assessment of looking at the big picture.

You know, somebody, you know, theologically could disagree with me. And then there's the wise. And I think we're in, we've been in a, in a society to where shrewdness has been desired over wisdom because shrewdness can lead to, to greater short-term gain where the wise will stand the test of time. And I think we just have to really, you know, the thing I love about Proverbs is it gives hope because God says, look, you ask for wisdom, I'll give it to you across the board. And wisdom, knowledge is easy to give, but wisdom has to be earned.

And I believe that there's a higher power, God, that we can answer to that guides us. And if we ask for that and we humble ourselves and ask for it, that he'll grant us wisdom as time goes along. Just not as quickly as we'd like to have it. And to, you know, it's not like you can dial it up, like, Hey Lord, grant me wisdom. I need to make money in this circumstance. But, but that wisdom helps society. And I think wisdom today is just, is accepting a love of the truth and the courage that it takes to embrace that truth. And that's one of the things that I love that you do and knowing you and just how tenacious you are and going after the truth and finding the truth and sorting through.

God's given you a gift to do that. And you're making a difference in the lives of people out there. Maybe, you know, some of them are, I'm sure, are having a crisis like we all do at the moment that your worldview changes. But once that settles down, you know, you can apply that in your life. And it helps us to be prudent. You know, the Proverbs also tells us the prudent foresee danger and hide themselves while the simple pass on and are judged for it so being prudent and pursuing that wisdom you

have a role I mean your role is pretty important and bringing that truth to light and admitting when when you thought something was one thing and making a an adaptation and and that's how we navigate and make a difference in this in this world well all the it's my honor to use my gifts, but the thing I'm blessed with is the people who are attracted to it. I feel like I'm just sort of shining a light, like a lighthouse out, and all the people out there are like, I like how this thinking is going, and then they come and they find each other. Best part, and by the way, our tickets for our summit, this is going to be our most important summit ever. Coming up here September 13, 14, 15, Friday, Saturday, Sunday in Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire.

Anybody listening to this, if you want to come and be around the people who've gathered to be in truth, to really navigate these uncertain times together as a fellowship, yeah, you don't want to miss this one. So a ticket stop on the 25th of August. We have to do that because we got food and facilities and we have to give them a final count. So anybody watching this, if you want to attend the summit, love to see you there. You'll see Paul there. You'll see me there. You'll see, wow, a lot of people. An astonishing roster of presenters this year. Uh, it's really, yeah, it's taken off in a good way. Yeah. Yeah. You do have an incredible presenter group and I want to encourage people. So from the outside speaking in last year, I attended, I know about

20 to 25 people that are coming this year already. And these are just the ones that I've actually written down. And I've got to tell you, they are the most genuine, real, honest, intelligent, critical thinking people. Like, you know, there shouldn't be any intimidation if you don't know anybody in the group to show up because you're going to be welcomed and you're going to find somebody that's just genuine. The kind of people that you want to be around and the kind of people that you want to be around if things spin out of control. So don't hesitate. Even if you don't know somebody, from my perspective last year, I didn't know a lot of people outside of you, Chris, and I came in and just built great relationships and had incredible conversation.

My wife had a blast. I'm so upset she's not going to get to come this year. So she will be there next year. Well, you and Holly got thrown right into the hopper with the great pizza incident, which you threw yourself at. We got solved. Yeah, that did work out. I think I made 10 or 15 trips in that little minivan, that rental minivan,

and it was great. I had a blast. Well, thanks for doing that. That was awesome. But, yeah, it's going to be so good this year. And I'm just, Paul, I don't know how many more we're going to have just because of how the world's going. And I wish I didn't think that way. You know, and I've been having, to me, really distressing conversations with folks.

I had two this week who are highly successful people, run their own businesses and uh both are actually facing big decisions like should i invest more now or should i not and just because of how the world's going not because of anything i'm saying just their own read of the world is like i don't think i'm going to invest i don't know they're paralyzed and i can imagine that they represent thousands of people millions of people making the same decision which is like i don't want to invest in the future. So it's already corrosive enough that it's guaranteed that we're not going to have the prosperity we had in the future in the past coming in the future because people, these are, you know, medium sized business folks. Good, good. I mean, you know, let's just say 50 to 200 employees kind of folks. And they're not investing because they're that uncertain about what they're

seeing out there. And I get it. You know, we live in a world where there was an attempted assassination of a former and possible future president. And the media just sort of shrugged and said, sorry, they missed and moved on. It was just it's like it's that level of shock can really throw people off. I'm a little bearish on our future because I just know what that paralysis does. That's our prosperity. It comes from people taking risks, working hard, and creating a better world. It does. But at the same time, Chris, I wonder if people starting to wake up is not in the foolishness and the openness of the life.

So one of the things, I don't even know where this thought came from, but it was probably 2016, 17. I was so heartbroken over kind of just what was taking place. I just started praying. I was like, Lord, I don't know what to pray for, but I just prayed that you'll open, that you will lay bare our leaders before the American people so that they know clearly, you know, what the situation is. Well, I don't, I don't know that that was necessarily what's taking place today was an answer to my prayer. It was just a desire that was on my heart. But the good thing about what it is is the lies are so blatant and they're so in your face. And the term gaslighting is so understood at this point that I think it's taken people that have just been focused.

Because the thing about individuals that are successful in their lives, they're focused on their family, they get focused, they can stay focused, they're disciplined, and they work, right? They can they can narrow and really, really do what they do. But because it's so blatant that people are starting to look up and look around. And to me, that brings hope. Yeah, we'll have chaos kind of that's going to spill in front of us. But the more people that have looked up, the more people have a chance to avoid that baseball bat that's about to hit them in the mouth. And if they can slide to the left just a little bit so that they're grazed or not hit as hard, then they're in a position to immediately move in and let wise individuals take the reins of power on the other side and in their local communities. So, you know, the good thing is, the bad thing is, as that saying goes, weak men bring about hard times.

But I think this is bringing about hard enough times that good men, women can step up and take over and lead to good times again. I hope so. Yeah. So, um, turning to finance real quick, then my, um, I love commodities. I do love commodities. Can I show you something here real quick? Cause, um, uh, so I have a weird, I have a weird moment here. i i know this isn't the total right way to track this kind of a thing but um silver hit a high of around 32 33 a while ago and it's just been sort of getting hemorrhaged ever since right in several weeks that whole time paul i have a morning routine i sign on to costco i know this isn't like the world approved way because it's just my dirty little secret which is is, you know, my little dopamine rush, which is like you go and you search coins and

they have, uh, I like the maple leaves, but if they don't have them, they have the silver Eagles. Um, and then you can buy them. And then the big Brown truck of happiness rolls up, you know, with free shipping. I love that. So, so that's been my thing for the past. I would say it's now closing in on two and a half weeks every morning. No coins. Now they have different regional warehouses, but, but my warehouse is not in the business.

Like they're just not, they're just not there. I'm like, well, wait a minute. I want to buy more because the price is coming down. I'm one of those guys. When the price goes lower,

I buy more. Um, and so I don't understand that. So it's just a little note. I want to throw it out there for people. I'm not sure that price and supply are in alignment right now, which is a thing. But then look at this. This is really cool.

This is First Majestic Silver Corp. They're a mine, and also they have a production facility for turning a mint, if you would. They say, Samsung's new silver solid-state batteries. I'm pretty excited by these. I've been tracking them for a while. I didn't realize we were this close. I'm going to look into this now. They're poised to revolutionize EVs.

An impressive 600-mile range, 9-minute full charge, 20-year lifespan, silver batteries, right? Well, this revolutionary technology requires approximately a kilo of silver for the battery that's not that's not that much have you got a kilo behind you i got a kilo this is from my good friend mike maloney this is one of his um uh yeah they have these big medallions he gave this to me once so so that's a whole kilo of silver in uh every one of these cars but that's impressive that level of of range and technology silver is an astonishing substance i'm so it's a commodity yeah not for against any particular company i love silver but this is just yet another reason why a nine minute full charge dude we are now that's amazing that's a

game changer and see see living where i do uh you know in the outskirts of atlanta one of the biggest problems is from my standpoint going to see family charging stations in between the 600 mile range i can go see my in-laws i can be back nine minute charge that that would change my purchasing behavior in a heartbeat. That's astonishing. So those are the kinds of things where I'm looking forward to going, oh, that would be that would be game changer for me, too, because, you know, even if you do, you know, nine minutes, I don't know, you have to hook that up to like a nuclear plant directly. That's like that's a lot of anyway, I don't know how that would work. But but if you could just leave that plugged in at home and it's always sort of topped off and you could go 600 miles, game changer.

That's a game changer. I'm pretty stoked. And that's a big announcement coming out of Samsung. People send me stuff all the time, Paul, oh, this guy invented a battery in his garage. They've never come to fruition. But by the time somebody like Samsung is making the announcement, I take it a little bit more seriously. So I'll look into that some more, probably do a report on that at some point. Well, and since you talk about commodities in general, and especially silver, I like that. I do want to highlight this little

chart here, and I've shown this before, but I think it's ridiculously important from a long-term standpoint. So this is a performance chart of just the major, you know, indexes, S&P 500 in black. Blue is the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index. Red is the developed market MSCI index. And the green is the emerging market. So this goes back January 1st, 2008. So as investors, we want to look for opportunity, right? We want to look for long-term opportunity.

That blue in commodities is 11% below that index. What it was January 1st of 2008. That's that, you know, I don't know when it changes and this is not specific recommendation to anybody out there, but I will tell you when our strategy directs us to, to, to have the heavily overweight commodities, that's a day that I'm going to be really giddy. Understand it's probably not going to pay off for the first 12 months. But that's an amazing opportunity

that I believe that we have upon us. Because I can go back and show the late 1990s. Now, I don't have the daily chart for commodities going forward. This isn't exact over 1990 to 2000, but the S&P 500 was essentially the only game in town over that period of time. So Buffett raised tremendous amounts of cash

in the late 1990s compared to what he had before. He had underperformed the market as people were chasing all of the technology stocks back then. But guess what happened from 2000 to 2007 when there was a rebalancing and investors decided to reallocate their money towards value and opportunity instead of just chasing the popular themes. This is January 1st, 2007 to December 31st, excuse me, January 1st, 2000 to December 31st, 2007. Commodities were up 213% over that period of time when U.S. equities and

S&P 500 were even, basically didn't do anything. So I really like that space from a long-term standpoint. There's tremendous amounts of value there, but it may take some patience before it takes off. But from a long-term standpoint, we really want to buy low and sell high. And this is an opportunity for investors to, you know, maybe stop trying to chase the popularity and look for where the value is really going to be now and try to position yourself for where you'll be four or five years from now. I've heard disturbing rumors that in this next political cycle that politicians are going to do what they do and promise a lot of free stuff to everybody. And if that happens, I see, I just don't, Paul, I don't see a way out of this without the Fed just printing and printing more. You know, it's everybody's been champing at the bit for this one thing, which is, oops, I went the wrong direction.

So this always gets me, right? So stocks have been sort of powering up and everything's fine. You know, they just can't seem to really go down, yada, yada. But everybody's like, the Fed just got the green light on rate cuts. Everybody's all excited. Oh, we get rate cuts. And why do we get rate cuts? Well, because inflation is, it's, well, you had a chart there from Zero Hedge.

I mean, they're talking about how inflation is coming down. It's not. The rate of inflation is coming down. It's still inflating. Prices are still higher than they were a year ago right um so you showed that that chart on that zero hedge thing which they are is it i i just it's just the bs i'm tired of the bs right you know um so look at that that's astonishing that that's pain up there in that blue for everybody who's on a fixed income or whose salary didn't go up quite as much

as that blue line did just sure it sure is well think about the evil from this chris what interest rates were zero from 2013 to 2019 so think about what that did you know essentially zero to retirees right so over that period of time the cost of living, core CPI, which removes energy and food. So that's your services and, oh, Lord, I lost the other. So, but, you know, you're not even counting energy and food and it's trucked along. And then all of a sudden, you know, we get this money supply fiscal irresponsibility and poof, you're up. So this is the 50th straight month of month over month increases in the core CPI and a new record high. So, yeah, hey, should the fed really cut here? You know, and next you go take a look at, at housing. So one of the

most prevalent conversations that I have around people that are, that are clients that are retired, how are my kids going to afford a house? The number one conversation that I have with my kids and, and, and I got one in college, but my, my oldest is doing well for himself. My daughter's doing well for herself in any period of time throughout history, they could go buy a house. But right now, you know, in the areas that they're in to find just a, a decent place is a half a million dollars plus. And at 25 years old, 23 years old, you don't need to be spending that much money on a house. So July rent inflation has stalled. Yeah, it's, you know, it's up 5.05% year over year versus 5.16 in June. And July, excuse me, shelter, July rent inflation is up

5.09 year over year versus 5.07 in June. So it's still climbing and that rate of decline is slowing, but look how much higher that inflation is for putting a roof over your head compared to what we see going back here to 1990 in that chart. So that's just an evil that we're hoisting upon the American people is what it really boils down to. And here's my biggest concern in that Zero Hedge article. So the money supply growth is re-accelerating. And, you know, and I've kind of paid attention to it, but it hasn't necessarily been on my radar. But they pointed out here, so, you know, look at all of that money supply in that red line that we had printed during COVID. And, yeah, it worked itself off, but it hasn't worked itself into everything, and now we're re-accelerating again.

So my point is, is why in the world would the Fed be in such a hurry to cut rates, which will increase lending potentially, which will re-accelerate the money supply growth, which could potentially re-accelerate inflation again, it's certainly going to stop the potential decline in housing to where it's becoming more affordable. So if they care about the American people at all, why in the world are they in such a hurry to slam rates to zero? I just don't understand that well zero is my words yeah well it serves multiple purposes obviously it it um you slam rates to zero uh you get housing prices skywriting back up so so that screws young people out of the chance to own a home right uh it prevents older people from earning a decent return on their savings yes uh it means that the government has to pay less for the money it has to borrow to give away all the free stuff it's about to give away right uh so this is this is the thing i've always hated people like still have to think fondly of the federal reserve i

despise the federal reserve i hold them in contempt and it's because they continually reward bad behavior right they incentivize risk taking by people who are already financial engineers, masters of the universe. They make gobs of money when they're not failing badly at it. When they fail badly, the Fed prints and makes them whole again. So I just despise that. But for the most part, it's, you know, like this whole thing. Like you saw the anger bubble up, which was, oh, you know, we're so proud, Biden administration, Kamala Harris, that we're going to, they said, cancel student debt. No, they didn't cancel it.

They paid it off for them with my money. So they basically said, oh, hey, listen, if you worked hard, saved, you know, paid for your own education or paid your loans down, we're going to ask you to pay for the people who didn't, you know, it's just, it's just rewarding the wrong people always, every single time. And the federal reserve loves rewarding the wrong people. And they do it over and over and over again, the prudent get shafted and the imprudent get bailed out. And that's just no way to run a society as far as I'm concerned. No, it's not. And it's the great temptation, Chris. So, you know, from my perspective, one of the things that I have to look at is what can stand the test of time. You know, the truth will always stand the test of time if it can come into the light. And so the reality is, is, is it punishes prudent behavior.

It forces people into debt and the, and the borrower becomes servant to the lender. And we all know going back to COVID, so many people had situations to where if you didn't take, if you didn't undertake the mandate, you could potentially lose your job. And if you, if you're in too much debt, kids in school, that's a, that puts people in a really tough decision. Oh, we didn't mandate it for you. Right. In hindsight, they're going to say that. So, um, but the thing is, is they're punishing those who are choosing the prudent path, but, but that's the path that's going to stand the test of time. Because at some point that one, you know, grain of sand is going to collapse the whole system some way, you know, deflation would be what's the best for the average

individual. But, you know, unfortunately I lean towards a hyperinflationary outcome. That's going to unfold at some point in the future, because if they're just going to do more of the same at this point, we're just going to get more misery. So when you, when you look at it, I see them as the bringer of misery for the average individual while they're slapping each other on the backs and the halls of power. And those that are close to the money spigots, you know, they, they're just so detached from reality. They don't, you know, they look at the statistics on suicide in our country. They look at the statistics on depression. They look at all that and there's like something wrong with those people. They just don't work as hard. And these people are so close to the money spigots and their

consciences are so seared that they can justify anything so that they can continue to pick up just a little bit more, just a little bit more. There's no limit to their grade. Yeah. Well, I must be built different because I would totally support a big, giant deflationary wipeout in house prices and stock prices just so my kids could have a chance at starting a life from a reasonable starting point. I would sign up for that. But that's not the average D.C. swamp critter. No, it's not how they think. It's not. And one other thing I wanted to point out here just, and I brought this up here, uh, maybe a couple of weeks ago and I, uh, it slipped my mind to show, but consumer sentiment. So the university of Michigan does a good consumer sentiment study. And unfortunately, we're going to hear, you know, short little bits of consumer sentiment.

Okay. So, you know, we can see here in the short run, like the media is going to put out, hey, consumer sentiment is great if you go back to 2023, which 2023 hit the low that we saw back in 1980. But if you go all the way back to 1960, even back to the year 2000, and you look, that consumer sentiment is in the lowest levels that we've seen in quite some time. And this is from the survey of consumers for the University of Michigan. More than that, you look at the current economic conditions index with that same survey as consumers.

I mean, the only times that it's been worse than where we are right now are the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, back in 2022. Okay. And then all the way back to 1980. I mean, we're at that bottom going all the way back. So that tells you how the average American is feeling as to what takes place. Now they're going to say, well, you know, you didn't have Instagram and social media to look at. I think it's the reality of what most people are facing. And then this is another problem that we have too. So you've got the top tercile of stock holdings. So this is wealth gaps and sentiment, and this is the index of consumer sentiment by stock holdings. And it's a three-month moving average, even that's below what it was in 2015 for all participants that are in the survey. But look at the gap

between the top tercile, which is the top 33% of stockholders versus those who have no stock holdings. That's a major deviation. And there's been deviations in the past but but that's substantial difference right there and just tells you we're in a bifurcated society right now um yeah and the fed printing money and slamming rates to zero is just going to further exacerbate that all the data shows it well do you think we're in a recession? Well, I think if we had honest numbers that were coming out and we weren't doing everything for, for propaganda and public relations, I do believe that technically we, we could end up in a recession. I know the data doesn't show that what, what we're looking at says that there's a high probability that we're going to end up

in a recession by, um, uh, first quarter of next year if something doesn't save it. But if you go back and take a look, I've got something here that points out. Here, let me show you this, though. Let me show you this because speaking of the gaslighting, you ready? Oh, yeah. 59% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is in a recession, report finds. Wrongly think. Wrongly think. Three in five Americans falsely believe the U.S. is currently in a recession. That's classic CNBC claptrap, right? It's just like,

but the experts haven't told us we can tell you we're in a recession. So that you have wrong think, you know, that perfectly led into something here that I wanted to show. So let's talk about that. So 59% of Americans wrongly think, well, well, what about, what, um, you know, let's look at the behavior of corporate insiders. So Jesse Felder put out this great piece here. I love Jesse's work. Yeah, I do too. And I don't know how to make this larger where you can see, hopefully you can, but corporate insiders are dumping stock at the fastest rate in more than a decade. Just click on that image. There you go. Yeah.

So percent of publicly traded corporations experiencing net buying from corporate officers and directors is the lowest that we level that we've said seen in a decade. So if you've got corporate insiders and directors, well, I guess, Chris, they're wrongly thinking that, that they should be, you know, uh, I mean, if, if they're thinking wrong, shouldn't they be buying at the pace that they were back in 2019 or, you know, uh, uh, headed into 2020, why would they be well below the, the 10 year average here? So, well, so, so look at that percent. If the percent normal percent line, I'm guessing is around 18%. I mean, sorry, 28%. Um, it's now at 15%. So it's like been cut in half. So half as

many as normal. Hey, that lines up with 59% wrongly thinking. Yeah, it does, doesn't it? So yeah. Well, Oh, uh, one more that I got to show while we're at it. So sorry. Uh, no, just about anybody would believe that Warren Buffett is a legend in the industry. And I sure do. I do too. I mean, he's just a machine. So, you know, why would Warren Buffett be at the highest level that he's ever had in cash, substantially increasing? You know, and see, back in 2022 at the bottom, he deployed some capital. He didn't get completely that aggressive. But this is a substantial jump. And, of course, they highlight $277 billion as he slashes Apple.

So do they think that he wrongly sees something in the economy too? Well, I'm sure you can find articles about how he's lost his touch, how he's, you know, time to pass the reins. It's sad. Age catches up with all of us, right? You'll read all those articles i'm sure oh yeah that's the best part you know and so instead of going after buffett and saying that he's wrong because everybody knows he's intelligent they're just uh framing the the story around and they're you know uh propaganda just i'm just going to call it propaganda as it is that then oh yeah buffett probably is raising that cash because he's getting ready to pass the reins to somebody else.

And he doesn't want to give them a book of problems. He wants to give them a fresh start. I don't know about you, Chris, but if you're saying, you know, as long as my mind's good, I'm staying in the game. I'm not giving up until I absolutely have to. So I just don't see him just raising a whole bunch of cash just to hand the reins off. No, I'm not sure sure but that's a weird story i don't even understand it because the point of investing is to be in the game um yeah so not not even sure how that tracks but speaking of our post-truth world then um this caught me as as it

usually does because uh we see this all the time now is um this breaking you know u.s crude oil production has officially hit a record of 13.4 million barrels now all-time new high uh that's what the energy information agency is pointing out this comes from daily shot um paul should we believe things coming out of the u.s energy information agency more or less than the bureau of Labor Statistics and why? I'm really trying to figure it out. They're all lying about everything. They are.

You know, and here's the thing. When you look at all the, goodness gracious, just what was going around an interview between Elon Musk and Trump and how it was not only the United States and outside the United States. At this point, when they're that coordinated and coming after the freedom of speech, we have to assume that you can't believe what's coming out of any of the major. And I hate that, Chris. I really, it breaks my heart that I can say that because I consider it to be an evil world when you're in a, when you don't

know what you can trust, right? You don't know what you can trust. And, and every step has to be taken with fear and trembling in our lives anyway, but you really have to take every stair step with fear and trembling, because if you're standing on a board of lies, or you take a step in a direction for a board that is somebody knows has been eaten up by termites, but they painted it to make it look attractive so they could, you know, accomplish their goal and you step on that, you know, a lot of companies could make some major mistakes because they're trusting the data that's out there. And it also takes away from productivity when you have to go verify, verify, verify information. So it is heartbreaking, but no, I unfortunately just call me a cynic. I don't believe that at first glance in any way whatsoever. We'll have to see what the

revisions are six months from now when nobody's looking. So, but what I track this industry really closely, and I can tell you about where we are in terms of rigs by basins and how much capital is going in or not going in. In order for that to be true, we have to believe that somehow we've like just doubled productivity and it's not happening. Right. There's also it's a very complicated story. We could have a whole episode on it. But the shale space is fundamentally one of different classifications of acreage, tier one, tier two, tier three. And yes, they're drilling longer laterals and doing all this and yada yada. But when you talk to people who are in the biz, it's really not been a constructive environment with oil sort of magically being held between bouncing between 70 and 80. If you really wanted to convince me that we're like powering off to all new highs of

oil production we would need oil around 100 110 a barrel and then i could believe you something's off in this story it just doesn't line up but a lot of things just don't line up these days and um how about how about this um so this is going to be a little hard to read, but this isn't you mentioned the Trump Elon Musk thing. Yeah. And these are small. But USA Today says Trump rambles, slurs his way through Elon Musk interview. It was an unmitigated disaster. Oh, thanks, USA Today. Fox. Let's see. Newsweek. Donald Trump's lisp during Elon Musk interview raises questions. The Guardian. So Donald chatted with Elon. Here's the future as they see it.

Losers win. Incompetence rules. New York Times. Musk's Trump talk on X after glitchy start. A two-hour ramble. It's just an unmitigated wall of negativity. Right? What is this like third grade?

I'm rubber, you're glue. Whatever you say bounces off me and sticks to you? I mean, I hate to say that. It's literally like they're accusing the other side of what everybody had been able to see with Biden. So now they're just taking that narrative and turning it the other way. And I listened to it. I didn't listen to it until after it came out. And I didn't pick up on any of that there.

It was actually a really interesting conversation to just have two individuals discuss the way they did yeah it was i thought there was there was a lot of things of substance but of course the media is just going overboard it was like he's weak he's lisping he's lying it was just wall-to-wall bs but that's the post-truth world we live in so i just just, in terms of like, how do you navigate investing in a world where you no longer, like, I don't trust stuff anymore, Paul. It's a real problem, right? I would like to trust that the EIA is giving me accurate, believable figures about oil

production because I like to track the space. I would like to believe that even those M2 figures you showed me are accurate. How do I know that it's not more or less than those numbers now that's right right because i've learned that there's no consequence for official people lying as long as it's in service of the narrative and the narrative is the government's strong and powerful and you know we have this all under control and we're doing great you know well bizarre well in another situation i was you know one of the things I've wondered is how come we haven't seen, and I know the insurance company is really exposed to, we've talked about that before, commercial real estate. So you're hearing these just absolute devastating values that are taking place in sales for 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90% less than what they did within the past 10 years.

And for the life of me right now, I cannot remember who it was on the interview, but the individual laid out, he's like, Hey, basically it's a wink, wink, nod, nod. We're going to let you put off marking a lot of that to market until first quarter of next year. Now, I don't remember all of the reasons he laid out behind how they could kick that can down the road. But if that's reality, why they could kick that can down the road. But if that's reality, why would you kick that can down the road to first quarter of next year? Well, it's clear as day because you've got an election that's coming up and you want to keep this narrative that's out there. And, you know, and that's concerning from my standpoint. And by God's grace, I started kind of seeing some of this and had to wrestle with this in my mind, you know, probably 2013, 14 area thinking I'm crazy. It's like some of this data doesn't

add up. Correct. So you have to work through that emotionally. And then you finally realize, Hey, this is, this is the, the game that we're forced to play. We don't get to choose the rules. So if I can't trust what's being put out of the propaganda pieces and the bubble vision and things like that what can I trust supply and demand and money flow that's the most important thing because yeah it's hard to see but the battle between buyers and sellers that's taking place you might can manipulate something for a period of time and if they can manipulate for

three, four or five years, and they get people to play that game before that shift, at some point, the big money centers are going to realize that this game is over. And then that money is going to start flowing somewhere else. And you don't have to be two steps ahead of them. And it's fine if you're two or three steps behind them, even five steps behind them, as long as you're two, three or four steps ahead of the herd once they realize it. And that can help us from going off that cliff when the money flow starts to show it's going in that direction. And you might skirt the edge of that cliff, but if you can stop and head in another direction before the herd falls off. And the thing about, you know, supply and demand, you know, houses sell what they sell for and, you know, easy credit can manipulate that. But when that runs out, those house prices start

falling. Terrible analogy because housing is not liquid to the point that you can get out that quick. But, you know, really when, when those prices start coming down, because there's less buyers and there's more sellers, that's the one thing that tends not to lie. It can be manipulated, but it can't lie. And that's one of the things that we watch just as closely as we possibly can. And that gives us some indication when the game, you know, starts to shift or is over. Well, what do you see in locally? Anything to support any of this? Well, I will say, you know, I'm kind of in a neutral phase right now. So, and another thing that's amazing, you have this yen carry trade, you know, start

to unzip or, you know, and it gets, you know, yes, we needed a correction, but all of a sudden it unzips and then there's silence on the other side and you get this market rally and it's like market participants to an extent are just like that didn't happen or that scared me, but Hey, party on, you know, let's go. So I was expecting, especially psych, excuse me, psychologically where we are, that we would, we would drift higher through the through August into the end of August. And then we're going to find out when we get into September if that was a birth pain and a warning

sign or if it was a short-term blip. Now, either way, I do believe that that's a warning sign. That just shows us the fragility in the system and how quick the participants are ready to head for the exits because they know this game. They know it's not long before the cops show up to the party. So we're basically on alert. There's not a lot to do right now, but just watching really closely to see, hey, are we going to carry this momentum into November? Is everything going to look great? Is the Fed going to cut rates just for political purposes, it seems,

because the data shows that we need inflation to come down a little bit more to reduce the misery that the Americans are feeling? I don't know, but we're watching really closely, and basically everything in our portfolio has an exit point that's as close as we can justify it without, you know, front running. So we've got to follow the data. We've got to follow that money supply. We've got to see what the buyers and sellers are doing. An educated guess, we're going to have some more pains by the time we get to September, more than likely, but that's, you know, it could be a coin toss at

this point because, you know, I just don't have enough information to see. So we're in no man's land. At some point, we're going to break one way or another. And my indication, at least I'm ready to break down so that we can move quickly, that if things start to accelerate quickly, that we can protect profits in the portfolios. I've been having more conversations with people who are wondering about the about uh the situation you and i have which is having a little farm having a little the ultimate protection plan chickens you know garden some maybe some freeze-dried food things like that uh that that conversation is now really uh popped up into the fore um and uh you know you people are still struggling with the same thing there's

like two camps like covid really broke people um they broke into camps. Right. And so the people who just refuse to have any conversation about possible harms or mistakes that were made or lab in a kind of a grubby, self-serving kind of a way. And so with all of that, there's less faith than ever in the overall system, which leads people hop, skip and a jump to say, maybe I should have a little food stored up. Maybe I shouldn't live 100 percent in a city. Maybe maybe I ought to, you know. Get to get to have more of a more of a resilience strategy in mind are you having any more conversations with with people about that anybody who you might have considered sort of maybe was on the fence uh anything like that oh absolutely so i had two conversations here in the past uh two weeks which were to me, they were absolutely joyful because, because I cracked

a window where you cracked it. And then I kind of just shattered through it. So we get finished doing the plan. You know, we get everything in place, you know, this is where we are kind of showing where they're at. And so I get finished and they've got excess savings. So I'm like, one, I can tell you, you don't have to have that working in the portfolio because you're on track where you are right now. Keep that going. So this gets to the conversation of how much can we exit the system with, right? So this one individual, you know, like, well, what do I need to do with it? And I'm like, okay, so we've already got allocation towards long-term insurance and gold on the portfolio. I said, so how much food do you

have stored up in the house? Well, I mean, I could make it two or three days., I said, so how much food do you have stored up in the house? Well, I mean, I could make it two or three days. And I said, okay, I want you to take a portion of that savings and go, go, you know, spend the next week writing down what it is that you have, that you eat on a regular basis, think about it. And I want you to go buy three months worth of food and store it because they've got a place in the house already knew that where they could put it and get in the habit of rotating those shelves. So we had a good 20-minute conversation over that, and they brought up the point, and it's like, you know, with inflation tracking a little bit higher than it is, that's kind of like an extra savings account in there, you know, plus the extra benefit that I had. And I said, yeah, and they said, is that it?

And I said, well, you know, you got a little funds left over. What do you think about going ahead and getting you another year's supply of freeze dried food for your family, which is five people. And I kind of shared with them where it was. And the fun part was they, they had wanted to do it, but they were so scared about the economic environment that they didn't feel comfortable letting go of that savings because right. Cause it's like, Hey, am I going to be okay? So when we got done with the plan, we were able to show you can take this and set it to a side and buy some insurance. You don't have to have that producing for you from a long-term standpoint. And so that was one. And then another, which I've

got to move to the next conversation there. Cause you know, that there you got to have those at time, was we probably spent a good most of our conversation after we got the plan and everything in really talking them through the importance of having some long-term gold from their standpoint to give that insurance from a long-term standpoint. And they had been so convinced over the years that it was a terrible asset that it took us about three meetings to be able to get there. But they finally decided to do it. I laid out a plan so that they could do it at their comfort level.

And the next day after the steps were taken, I get a phone call that's like, you know, I really struggled with that yesterday, and I hope I wasn't rude in the questions. I said, no, you're never rude in your questions. Like you've got a question to ask it. You're not going to offend me. You're not going to hurt my feelings. And I'm not going to think you're crazy for asking the question, ask it. We're going to have the conversation. And they said, I slept so good last night, knowing that I actually have some gold and the purpose that it has in my portfolio. So, you know, Chris, I'm lucky. I get to help people do this all day.

And the interesting thing is meeting people that have been looking for somebody that they can have a conversation with that's going to advise them. Like, you know, I've helped people that we don't even get to. We won't even do business together for the next three to four or five years, but we've been able to give them some peace of mind, give them some check marks and things that they could do. That's making a difference in the lives of somebody else. And you know this, we know this, I've done this long enough. It always comes back tenfold. That's one thing the Lord says, there's one man that gives and yet has even more.

And there's another man that takes and loses everything he's got. Now I butchered the second part of that, but the spirit of what it is. So, so yeah, it's fun. And there are people that are waking up and they're looking for guidance and they're looking to have honest conversations. And, and, and that's the most enjoyable part of what I do, you know, around, because I get to show them in their, in their, in their money. And I've met other people. I'm like, look, you do not need to come see me until you get, uh, for this one individual, 15 months worth of your expenses and savings. Cause you're too fragile right now. If we have a recession and you lose your job, you're going to lose everything.

So reposition this portfolio, build up your savings. You do this, this, and this, then, then, then you've hit that mile marker and we'll get back together again. But we have no business doing together, uh, doing business together until you get your foundation in place. Cause you need to be in a position to survive a recession if it comes. And if it doesn't come, so what you didn't waste, you still built your foundation so that you're more resilient. And then we can move to the next step to make you even more resilient. Excellent. Where else are people going to get that kind of advice from their financial

advisor? Hey, you talk about that at the local Rotary Cub, people look at you like you're crazy, but I still, I still talk about it because it always comes back. You know, sometimes it takes people a year or two before they really understand why you're sharing things with them. But I don't mind people looking at me like that. Yeah. Oh, that's so good.

Well, everybody, if you want to meet me in person, meet Paul in person, the next opportunity to do that is going to be at the Summit. Yes. And come on up September 13, 14, 15 in New Hampshire is a beautiful place that time of year. We're getting into fall and a lot of people travel there just for that reason anyway. But come on up. We'd love to meet you. And if you want, you can always set up a meeting with Paul and his team by going to

peakfinancialinvesting.com, filling out a simple form. We'll get back to you or do that and come to the summit and talk to him in person as well there. So with that, Paul, thanks so much for your time today. Thank you for everything you're doing for everybody. I just know you're doing great work for them. I'm so proud of you and happy to be associated with you and your team here. I enjoy it. It's fun. So thank you. All right. Till next time, everybody. Enjoy. Trade safe and be safe, everyone.

And get resilient.