Peak Prosperity - https://peakprosperity.com/silver-breaks-out/

Episode Date: July 12, 2025

Silver surges past $39 per ounce, joined by oil, palladium, and copper gains, signaling inflation and a shifting global financial landscape favoring hard assets. I think they are signaling something larger…are you ready?Click Here for Part 2

Will July 11th, 2025 go down as Silver Emancipation Day? It is a huge breakout for silver. The following is the audio version of a video released at peakprosperity.com. Visit peakprosperity.com to watch the video and to find other insightful content such as articles, discussion forums, and exclusive subscriber only content. Hello everyone, Dr. Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity here. Listen, after 14 long years, Silver has finally busted a move and today it cleared and held $39 an

ounce in the futures pits and so today we're going to talk about silver. It breaks out to new highs. I think it's telling us something even more important than just the price and so we're going to go into that in particular for part two of this for my subscribers. There's a really strong case for why you have to own hard assets. And you can get that message without even going through all of that thesis. So here's what we're seeing today at the time of this recording here, which is about three o'clock in the afternoon.

I just took a screenshot. Silver over $39 an ounce in the futures pit, gold up a tidy 40 bucks, platinum up 57. That's a 4% move. Palladium busting a 7% move up $85 and Dr. Copper at 59 cents over five bucks so listen this is these are big moves what are they telling us first let's take a look here we see that silver had a breakout what's called a breakout and charting terms here it had this rising wedge and then it popped its head up so it had a breakout on the daily charts these breakouts are more convincing when they

happen on multiple time frames so let's turn our attention to the weekly chart very quickly and here we can see there was a long wedge back here that it broke out of back in 2024 and then we have another sort of rising wedge. It's a little messy because we had this April tantrumy thing happen in here, but just poking along here, we see a breakout on the weeklies and then as well, we also see a breakout on the monthlies, this big rising wedge and we just popped out there too. Bringing us back to 2011 is how far we have to go back to see a silver price around here. So

Obviously silver is busting a pretty good move here today. Now look there could be a lot of reasons for this But one of them is that potentially? Well, we saw oil up we saw basically commodities up and it seems that the Trump administration Besides injecting chaos and uncertainty with their trade and tariff negotiations and how that's been conducted they've also thrown in the towel on spending restraint right the big beautiful bill no longer seeks to really contain spending but it seeks higher growth by stimulating I don't know more investment more spending I get it

look it might work might not but the one thing we can be sure about is that it's gonna result in more spending and that is gonna lead to higher inflation and that brings us to charts that look like this. Now also fueling Silvers rise right now is that the what are called the swap dealers here are a record short 55,000 net contracts. They're actually short 82,000 contracts, but they're also long some contracts. So net 55,000 contracts, that means it's about 275 million ounces, which means for every dollar that silver rises is 275 million in losses for this crew, which means that today's move being up $1.75, you know, it's closing in on um you know four hundred million dollars in paper losses for this crew

What's interesting going turning to China which I'd like to turn over to China see what they're up to you can see here that JD.com raw silver was trading at $40.40 this morning and Just general silver here at $39 an ounce and this is about a dollar higher than US silver was at at the time so China silver has been about $2 higher This is actually tightening up a tiny bit, which is interesting to see wonder what that means all right So you know what's interesting is that Yesterday in an attempt to keep silver from rising when it was here at the 36 level 483 million ounces were sold in a single hour. There was this massive churning that was happening here

It's a huge effort to stop the breakout in silver. 483 million ounces is basically a half a year's mine supply all churned like crazy. Throw paper at it and they threw as much paper as they possibly could at it to try and keep it contained. So the containment system for silver is breaking down. All right. so now one signal the commodities are sending here by rearing their heads up like this, wee, you know, and really popping is that, and I think you should prepare for this, is it says more inflation's coming, right?

You know, things like hard assets like gold and silver, timberland, and inflation hedges like energy, all of them are starting to signal that there's some real stress going on in the paper based dollar system more on that in just a second. But the other signal that that really you know really really really changed everything was let me see if I've got it here was that this the relationship between the price of gold and the dollar totally broke down gold just took off all on its own now Make gold great tweeted out earlier today said the world's smartest AI grok 4 and by the way grok 4 is a real beast

It's been particular grok heavy which I just signed up for today unbelievable what it can do Confirms silver is the most undervalued commodity in the planet from first principles So the question was posed to grok for what is the most undervalued commodity in the world? Just one word then simply mathematically prove why from first principles silver Okay. Well, we've talked about this for a long time silver is one of the strangest beasts out there They they have spent a lot of firepower trying to keep you uninterested from it by keeping the price volatile mostly to the downside

and keeping it well contained but the cost of that has been that for the past six years silver has been in a severe structural deficit less coming out of the ground than is being consumed by industrial and investment processes. All right, so from a first principle standpoint, that's a big deal. Now, I'm gonna be talking a lot here in what follows in part two of this about how and why I think

really hard assets are just super important for everybody to hold right now and It's because we're coming to the end of a real monetary experiment and a regime and This is going down on our watch and AI is only going to supercharge this for reasons I've covered extensively in the past because it's a disruptive technology, not a transformative technology, but disruptive. So how do we deal with all that? What should you do?

Listen, this is a question that we are going to be asking and answering at my yearly summit, which we hold up in that area in Lake Winnipeg, up in New Hampshire. It's gorgeous. This is an experiment we're going to run again. This is a real hit. We ran this for the first time last year, but real hit. Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Winni ask you, instead of saying binary, will the United States get into a hot war with Russia, yes or no, I'd ask, well, what do you think the chance of that is in the next year? And you might say 35%. You'd count over seven of those boxes and you'd land 35 mark.

When we ask people questions and put a drone above them we saw these beautiful histograms these human histograms that Gave the collective intelligence of the assembled crowd for what they thought was going to happen Or what the chance of that was and that allows us when we can harvest the intelligence of the crowds like this now We have a chance To ask and answer some fairly sophisticated questions and they're not binary. It's never yes, no, we always get everything right. You have to prepare as a prudent adult for things that haven't happened yet, which means they have a chance of how they're happening, not happening, or being worse or better than

you expected. And with all due humility, none of us have the right answer. But together, I think we get closer. So we're going to be reviewing how we did last year compared to what transpired over the next year. Like, here's a question we asked everybody. We had a fuzzy drone photo for some reason we said. Question three out of the 15 we asked at the summit was, what chance of a stock market

crash do you assign over the next four years? And it weighted out at about 75%, percent somewhere somewhere in there was the weight you can see also it had a sort of a skewed shape it wasn't an easy bell curve around the 70 percent markets weighted off to the right but you know you're some people down there were like nah I don't think it's gonna happen five percent chance other people like 100 percent dude gonna happen you add all that up and you say okay the collective intelligence of the people I trust most say 75 Yeah, maybe a 75% chance over the next four years

Let me prepare and plan accordingly this question We asked seven number seven was what chance do you assign to the probability of a supply chain? breakdown happening across the west and us by 2030 And you can see this is skewed a lot more to the right still We had somebody all the way down at 0% But a lot of people now are starting to to the collective intelligence of the assembled crowd says There there's a good chance of that so again You might want to take that information in and adjust your

Preparations your responses accordingly. What are you going to do in your own life? Not preparing these days is an action. Preparing's an action, but not preparing is also an action. More and more people are now realizing the wisdom of prudent preparations, of not just depending that our leaders have our best interests at heart, or that they wouldn't dare to wreck the system

Just to rule over the ashes like more people get it now that that we're in a really chaotic System right now and the system's kind of breaking down and it'd be good to be prepared So this is how we approach it at peak prosperity. Of course might not surprise you we use data and intuition kind of an equal measure. Question 13 was, what probability do you assign to a crippling cyber attack striking the West by 2030? And again, you can see the outcomes from that. So we had 15 questions, we're gonna review them all.

This summit is an extraordinary time. You can see we have a lot of fun. We do, well, this is my kind of fun. And a lot of great conversation. So if you are at all concerned about being prepared, and you would like to be around people like this, who by the way, doctors, lawyers, engineers, CEOs, single moms, like the people who are curious and have open minds, it turns out,

cut across all the socioeconomic Categories, but they tend to skew a little bit more towards professionals and successful professionals at that entrepreneurs, too So that's who we are if that's who you are Come to peak prosperity's annual gathering this year We would love to have you and get your input into this human abacus calculating machine we call our Bayesian experiment. All right Turning back now. This is a really gigantic chart to have to sort of process so the United States dollar for the longest time was the only kid on the block it was the Global reserve asset right and of course they enshrined it

Global Reserve asset right and of course they enshrined it Bretton Woods 1944 after the war is ending winding down the dollar is going to be enshrined in its back by gold Because you need a global reserve currency a stable currency that to conduct global trade Great on the back of that the world built this huge just-in-time global System of economy right factories over here assemblers over there Consumers over here, and that's how it worked and it worked great until about 1971 Nixon took us off the gold standard fine A number of years passed everything still seemed to be pretty much okay

But now for the first time in 2024 we saw that the US dollar now suddenly comprised less than half The first time less than half of global reserves with gold taking a big piece but even more so currencies excluding the euro and the dollar is All these other currencies are starting to now come into play. That would be the ruble. That would be the yuan That would be other currencies euro has been pretty stable down here but the dollar sort of losing its market share here and Gold and other currencies are beginning to eat into that

So this is the big story and we're starting to see that that's what gold and silver are telling you now Here's what we have to also consider at this point in time telling you now here's what we have to also consider at this point in time look if you ask me if you said what's happening there's a sea change happening and Silvers price is being to reflect that so how high will silver go how big are these changes underway well if the old rules applied I'd be yeah somewhat more muted that I'm gonna be today But the old rules are out the window you have to be in hard assets They're an unmuted statement. This is absolutely Absolutely the thing not just because we're seeing sort of these sea changes in the dollar and vis-a-vis all this stuff

It's because there are pressures building in the system that could lead to very very rapid sudden changes in the financial temperature of the world we might say or in our financial systems so I've told everybody about the great taking the work by dot David Rogers Webb right it's a risk that the whole system might sort of freeze up we understand that we have this global giant board of a financial system where everything sort of trades in lockstep across borders indicating that we don't have the financial bulkheads we used to have that would prevent contagion, a fire in the ship's hull from progressing from one

end of the ship to the other. We don't have that anymore. We have this giant integrated system that has a fairly binary outcome. It's either functioning smoothly or it's threatening to just completely seize up Now, what do you think the signals are gonna be if we're getting into higher and higher stress territory? That's obvious rich smart money is gonna be moving into Non-dollar based things aka hard assets. That's what we've been seeing seeing so I think we should look into that now but even with though that's just listen decades of malfeasance and over printing and too much debt accumulation all that if that's all we were facing about a coin flip I think that

we could have a successful outcome to that but right now all those old rules are kind out the window because the United States as a nation is under a sustained attack from within and it's tearing us apart. And these attacks are not accidental, but rather being actively pushed by various people and entities who hope, I suppose, I guess, on some level, that somehow they're going to gain from the chaos. The chances of the US dollar and its financial system remaining intact were already not good, right? We already had the massive math problems and the debt problems. But now when we have the sustained attacks that we're facing right now, cultural attacks,

well it's too much. It's just too much. And there's no organized resistance from the power brokers to resist it in any way, shape or form. So I think it's too much. It's just too much and there's no organized resistance from the power brokers to Resist it in any way shape or form. So I think it's too much to absorb. It's time to become resilient It's time to own hard assets and oh, yeah, it's um, it's time to plant a garden. So part two for my subscribers I'm gonna be talking about this the intentional destruction of the West and how that Means that hard assets are a must-own for everybody at this point in time. So if you're a subscriber, keep on listening. If you're not, hey, consider becoming one because this is a really important topic and you're going to want to see it.

Thank you everyone. Bye for now. Hope you have a great weekend. you