Peak Prosperity - Or Is It Something Worse…?

Episode Date: April 5, 2025

While visiting Atlanta, GA, I had the chance to connect with Paul Kiker. We discuss tariffs and Friday’s market chaos, which I believe to be a 2008-style liquidity crisis.Click Here for Peak Financial Investing

Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice. It is for educational purposes only Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full The following is the audio version of a video released at peak prosperity comm Visit peak prosperity comm to watch the video and to find other insightful content such as articles discussion forums and exclusive subscriber only content. Hey, hello everyone. This is a very special finance university that's about to be recorded here. I'm sitting here with Paul Kiker.

Hey Paul, in person. I always love in person. This is so good. Weird circumstances. We're in Atlanta. We're in Atlanta. We're at a conference. And, of course, today I'm looking at the market that Dow is down 2,200 and some odd points

here. So we just thought, well, we're going to have to talk about this. And this is on top of yesterday's losses. What does this mean? I think this is a 2008-style liquidity crisis. We're going to go over the data for that, talk this through, because this is a really big event. If it is a 2008-style liquidity crisis, you're going to have to the data for that, talk this through, because this is a really big event. If it is a 2008 style liquidity crisis,

you're gonna have to be prepared for this, because prices get set by people who have to sell for whatever reason. And so, listen, everything gets tossed out, baby bathwater, the whole nine yards. So, Paul, you're in the biz. Or are you, well, I mean, you've been here a lot. What do you think of today?

I mean, am I overselling it here? No, I don't think so. This was a pretty massive move across the board. I mean, just from top to bottom in a matter, just a matter of 60 days. Yeah, I've seen the Dow go down 15 percent. S&P is down 17. Nasdaq... In how many days?

In, let's say, 60 days. Yeah. But the top was, we talked about two months ago February so NASDAQ's down 21% in 60 days and the magnitude of this moves really fast you know instead of getting the sell-off with a little bit of support and you know bounce and rally especially what we've been trained over the past since the 2008 crisis is you're gonna at least get a counter-trend rally out even if the trend is changing but this was shocking and of course the tariffs are the excuse that the market started selling off for mm-hmm and

that's what it says right here Trump tariffs spark worst weekly meltdown here on Yahoo Finance you buying it no I know I, this market was prined, overpriced. So the question is, what's going to fuel this market if the Fed's standing back? Because the Fed came out today and said the tariffs are inflationary, so they're on hold. And I was actually expecting that Sunday, Saturday, Sunday, especially over the past 15 years,

anytime there was trouble, we got QE, Operation Twist, QE1, QE2, interest rate cuts in the background. Power came out today and said, I don't know, rate cuts. That's the Fed just standing aside and letting this bus go right on by, huh? Yes. Well, that's new. So, a lot of people were expecting a bounce because the Fed was going to step in, because the Fed's always been there. And you and I have talked about this over the months,

saying what if the Fed doesn't come to the rescue? You got a lot of traders, they're young bucks, they haven't experienced anything like this. They just know the Fed's gonna rescue this thing. The Fed just stepped aside today. During one of the, arguably one of the worst down, I think, well, you have some data there, right? Yeah, so we got some data.

So, I mean, this is a historic day. So yesterday, data, because I learned this, I looked at this recently and I have so much going through my head, I want to make sure I had it right. So Goldman reported today, by total shares traded across all exchanges in the U.S., the highest volume in history. And I don't have the chart to show right now, but it blows every historical record out. You know, one thing you pay attention to is there's conviction when it's on volume.

So the fact that we have big volume means that this is convicted selling or someone's deleveraging and, you know, when we hear somebody goes down over the weekend. Yeah. Well, let me see if I can get, do they have, nah, just one week. Well, let's do the one week performance successor tells the tale here a little bit

So we got in a video down 14% on the week We got Apple down 13 and a half percent Amazon down 11.2 Google made a 5 and 12 percent, but this is what I'm focusing on for the moment too because this is the liquidity crisis idea on for the moment too, because this is the liquidity crisis idea. Policy financial services here, banks, JP Morgan down 13.4%, Bank of America 16.6%, Wells Fargo, everybody's down. This is pretty big. Well, not Berkshire, because of course he's sitting on 300 billion in cash. He's had dummy cash.

Smart move, you know, and when everybody's saying put your cash to work, put your cash to work, put your cash to work, call your brokers, I actually had a conversation with somebody today and we got to talk about the market and they were like, hey, my broker called today and said, you got some money, let's put the cash to work. He slapped, he said, you've already convinced me to put all the cash to work, I don't have any left,

I'm fully invested. Right. So how do you buy the dip if you don't have any cash? Well, yeah, of course. So, this is where the risk-managed portfolio is stupid and important at this. But just today's damage alone, looking at the one-day returns here, healthcare, I mean, listen, only things I have green on here are the home builders and Nike, because I think Vietnam folded on the tariffs.

So, maybe that's a tariff story, right? But this is just stocks. We're talking stock universe here. I want to go to commodities in a bit because we have to read the totality of the picture here. Everything was getting sold. And the weird thing to me, Paul, was normally, if this is a normal downturn, you get the Jell-O go from equities over to bonds.

Yes. Slides across the plate. Yes. Bonds didn't really rally all that hard as far as I'm concerned. No, they didn't. We closed today, this is Friday, at 4.01% on the 10-year. So we didn't even break 4%. And that's a minimal move considering the magnitude of the market sell-off.

So at best, that tells us that there's confusion on where to go. I think it was only like 4.05 this morning, so it really really didn't even budge like a few basis points. It wasn't much Yeah, well my chart is not showing end of the day yesterday So unfortunately, I can't see that behind but it didn't move very much at all meaning This isn't just a jello moving cross plate. This isn't just sort of there's no sector rotation happening here in the stocks and there's no asset allocation rotation going across happening here in the stocks and there's no asset allocation rotation going across stocks of bonds. Now this is liquidity selling. All right, look, can we talk? So 2008 was the liquidity crisis. Absolutely. All right, what does that mean? Because a lot of people don't know what that means. Like,

we're not talking about water. No, so liquidity crisis means that the problem is if you're fully invested at all times and you wait, you either get forced out, you're driven out, or you puke out. Your emotions kick you out of the market. Yep. So, going back to that data, after Lehman Brothers collapsed, that triggered margin calls across the board. There was a period of time back then where Hank Paulson, I believe it was, had to step

in. They had, you know, the money market accounts nearly fluctuated. Money market accounts traded a dollar. So they call it nearly breaking the buck. So if money market accounts are not supposed to do that, they have it historically. They claim that the money market accounts were gonna freeze shorter term liquidity,

and they had to have this intervention. During that liquidity crunch right there, crisis, there were no buyers. Everybody was having to pay off their debts, the individuals, the banks were upside down and they're having to call all these loans in and the S&P during that following month, October 6th to the 10th, in four days dropped 18%. So 18% four days. And then you had gold got crashed, crushed. Bonds went down dramatically in the short run period of time. That was one thing that I was surprised about back then was normally you would look to

bonds. And those people who went into bonds were down, I can't remember the numbers without going back and look. But I think AGG was down 20 25% during that period. Don't hold me to that because I'm going off of memory. But it was down a lot dramatically during that period of time. Yeah. So when I think of a liquidity crisis too,

I think about, so you and I, you know, we operate typically with a leverage of one. I have $100, I buy $100 of stock. And I might not like that it goes down, but that's it. Right? Right. When I think of leverage, Paul, I'm thinking of hedge funds and I might not like that it goes down, but that's it right right when I think of leverage Paul I'm thinking of hedge funds and all the Wall Street players and and they they don't like 4% returns or 5 They want 40% return so you get that with 10 to 1 leverage meaning

Let's say you raised a hundred million dollars from friends and family. They're like I can't lose 20 years This is the strategy is always worked. I back tested it you do that It looks good, and then you go to your Goldman Sachs people you're like, I can't lose 20 years. This strategy has always worked. I back tested it. You do that. It looks good. And then you go to your Goldman Sachs people, and you're like, look, I got $100 million in play. But I'd like to do better. And so they'll loan you a multiple of that. Let's say 7x.

They'll give you $700 million. Now you have $800 million to work with. And you put all that to play, and you can't lose strategy. Never fails, right? The Fed always bails this out. Whatever your thing is, all of a sudden you live through that first, you know, things are selling off after February, it's painful, you're getting calls from friends and family like how are we doing? You're like oh it's good, but you're, you know, if you're down 100 million on your 700,

800 million, you just lost all your capital. Yes. You can only take a 14% loss in this story. Okay. So there's all these players and they're watching at Hemorrhage and then yesterday was a big puke. Yes, it was. And then today was the big puke. These are people all of a sudden, it's not even your friends and family saying, Paul,

what's happening to my money? It's Goldman Sachs saying, we're gonna have to unwind that loan we gave you. Yes. And they do it, they'll take over and unwind it for them. This isn't by choice, it's forced, in most cases like that. So it's like, what's in your portfolio? We're selling it right now. And it doesn't matter if it's something that's great or a dog, it doesn't matter.

Gold, if you have it in there, it gets sold. If you have silver in there, it gets sold. If you have oil, it gets sold. If you have stocks in there, it gets sold. Everything gets sold. Speaking of that, silver was crushed over the past couple of days. Boy, yeah, how about that? I don't know where the bottom is, but I do like silver from a long-term standpoint.

And copper had the biggest weekly drop since the Cogan crash. Biggest weekly? Biggest weekly drop since Cogan crash this week. OK, so oil also smoked. Yes. Really smoked at this point in time. So copper and oil, does that say in recession? I would think so.

Or is it just everybody, everything's getting sold? It's hard to tell right now. I mean, so the question that I have is, is this, so the speed of these market moves is getting faster and faster and faster. Yeah. Computers, algorithms, computer trading programs, what are the statistics? Can you remember the number of traders that are actually computer programs?

Humans just aren't there anymore. Well, I remember it was 2014 or 15 across the 50% market. Now I think it's like 95% of all trades are computers, just algorithms. Just, it's a program. If VIX goes down, I do this and then that and then this. It's just all sort of a programmatic, well, it's just a logic train, this, then that, you know?

Yes. So, the question is, you know, Trump comes out, Goldman stated when the—when the tariff news came out that it was worse than their worst-case scenario. So, there's going to be some normal rebalancing in there. Oh, the other statistic, pension's rebalance had the hard—the largest end-of-month—end-of-quarter buy in their rebalance that we've had in history, if I remember the statistics correctly. Well, there's a set statistic pensions rebalanced had the hard the largest end of month end of quarter buy and their rebalance that we've had in history if I remember the statistics correct well there's a set a lot of cash kicking around yeah well you know so market sells off in February and is down bonds held up relatively well so they have to rebalance back to those okay basis so they were selling some of

those bonds right back in the stocks, literally just in time for this major weekly decline here. So that's going to put more stress on the pension. Oh, the terrible. Right. So the question is, is this just a fast reaction to the tariffs? But I'm not buying the tariff argument. Okay, well then what does make sense? What fits? I mean, yeah, we knew what those markets were stretched. We've been talking about that. The most expensive in history is not a good starting point to have a...

There's a lot of air under the market that's stretched out. But could this be more? Are you thinking, is it political? Well, I don't know so much political as it's just the liquidity coming out of the system, the understanding that Trump's serious about supporting labor at the expense of capital. You know, because the prior administration did everything from a globalist standpoint, bring in all these immigrants.

What was it? What's the news came out? 2.1 million Social Security numbers. Well, that was shocking. That was Social Security numbers given to illegal immigrants. That's not how many illegals came in. That's just a subset. But yeah. So outside of the voting, that's bringing cheap labor in to keep labor down for American citizens. And that's at the expense of labor for the benefit of the county.

Do you remember? I have at least three liberals saying, but who's gonna do my yard work? You remember that, they're all concerned. Who's gonna build our houses? Right, he's gonna build our house. Americans, that's what's good. Americans, they'll do a good job, and there are a lot of people out there

when the wages are sufficient for the level of work that goes into it. So I'm wondering if there's just a realization in these major firms that, hey, he's serious about supporting labor, and he's courageous enough this go-round. Because one thing that I wondered about, worried about, even on the tariff announcement, I hedged a little bit when you and I were talking, because I clearly remember in 2017, Trump was obsessed on the markets.

God, it was everything markets. Every time they would start to go down, it was tweets. He was out there tweeting on it. Yes. In this case, yeah, there was a few tweets today that, you know, he mentioned that the Fed needs to cut rates. The Fed came out and said that they're not ready to do that yet. But he seems to be serious about getting the tariffs in place, leveling the playing field.

And another reason I don't necessarily agree that this is all tariffs, that's the excuse. But the formulas are out there. I mean, this is clear formulas for anybody to look at. He's explained clearly he's trying to equalize the playing field. So I think it's more than that. I think this is just a bull market that's running on fumes and the realization is that yes we're probably gonna have a recession if we

don't have a recession at a minimum. Oh we would do one for a while time. Do one and we need one. Yeah. We need to get it now instead of later and unfortunately that's gonna hurt the people that aren't prepared but if they follow the advice we've been sharing with people 12 to 24 months worth of emergency fund, clear some of your profits, get yourself in a position to be prepared for it, just good, prudent, you know, financial management of your household assets, then you're in a position to come through this, weather the storm better, or being an opportunity to capitalize on the disruption that the recession is going to cause.. Right, well if we look at this,

obviously across the major world equity markets, right, so I'm just talking Western stuff, including Japan. So Europe, Japan, US, there's no winners in this story. So it feels kind of like, ever since October 2023, we saw mysteriously the stock market broke all sorts of support, you know, ever since October 2023, we saw, mysteriously, the stock market would broke all sorts of support, and then that night, it went the other way. And we've had 18 months of it just going up and to the right, you know, and I think there's a lot of support that happened in there.

Somebody reliquified the markets. Fine, they had a plan. But that was under Biden. So I asked about the political thing, because who knows? Maybe because it's Trump, maybe they're willing to just step aside. It could be. It could be some part of that. But if that's the moment where they started reliquifying, I think that's a reasonable

target to say where this could go. And that's around 4,000 on the S&P. It is 21% lower than where we are here. But the problem with that is that's a price to earnings ratio of 20 on the S&P at current earnings rates. You mean getting all the way down to 4,000? Yes. Just gets us back to 20?

Gets us back to 20. So you have... Well, that's like the expensive fare. Yeah, it's only relatively fair compared to where we've been. Matt, you get back to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 like we did after staying at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20. Late 50,000? Late 60s. That's somewheredaring ratio of 20, late 50,000, late 60s.

That's somewhere in the neighborhood of 2,000. Yeah, it's a 60% decline from top to bottom. Yikes. And that's assuming the earnings hold up. Yeah. But I got to thinking about this today. So if you're the Fed, maybe it's political. Maybe it's not.

I mean, they've been the spotlight. Everybody understands, well, not everybody. People are starting to understand that the Fed is the source of this inflation issue. They've overheated the economies where the inflation comes from. So it seems to me like this might be the excuse to stand back and go, oh, it's the tariffs. It's their fault. Look at them, not me. Well, there was some finger pointing today, right, didn't—Bowell also said, oh, those

tariffs are going to be very inflationary. He pins the tail on that donkey, right? It's like, no, that was you, you know? That's right. Yeah. So I am amazed by the homebuilders surging like they did today, though. That doesn't make much sense to me. You know, unless that's just sheer speculation that rates are going to go lower and we're

going to continue to build like crazy. Either that or this tale we're actually telling is that this is a tale of everybody being on the one side of the boat and then they were on to the other side of the boat. So maybe everybody was already on the short side of the home builder boat and they had to run over to the long side of the boat. That's a very good point. When it's a liquidity crisis Paul, my message here is that you can't, prices don't give you information except for who just had to sell a whole bunch of stuff. Right?

So if somebody happened to have been really short, the home builders, they're going to have to buy them to get out of those positions. Right? So this is why the liquidity crisis is such a weird moment, because you can analyze everything from a value or a price movement or momentum or at other standpoint. But when you get to a liquidity crisis, the only thing you need to know, and you and I can't know this from the cheap seats except to read the tea leaves, is to know that somebody had to sell a bunch of stuff and I can point to it, but I don't know why, I don't know how leveraged they were, but

I will guarantee you based on these moves, somebody blew up. Now if we're lucky, it's just some smallish hedge funds and there's some capital erosion on Wall Street. If we're unlucky, it's a UBS, it's a P&B, it's a Deutsche Bank, not to pick on European firms, but they tend to get clocked more than they do somehow. Well, and make of that what you will. The problem with that is, is that could further exacerbate the sell-off. Not necessarily saying that that's the case here, but that could further exacerbate the sell-off,

especially if there's somebody that's a big derivatives player. Right, that's my biggest concern. Mine too, and of course we can't know that out here in the cheap seats. But you remember, I'm gonna re-watch it because I re-watch it like every quarter. The Big Short is honestly one of the best movies

ever done. Of course that. See, you do, just for Margot Robbie to describe collateralized debt obligations to you from a bubble bath, right, just for that scene. It's amazing. But the big thing in there was that these guys bet right, and Goldman Sachs wouldn't let the price move on the bonds, the insurance policies,

derivatives they bought. So the derivatives market itself is subject to shenanigans, right? And the thing is, I was having a conversation with somebody earlier, they're like, oh, but you know, the great financial crisis we learned our lessons, like, no, no, no, no. Derivatives are bigger. Too big to fail is too bigger. Everything's just got supersized.

Nothing got corrected. No, no, no, it hasn't. All in. What's the rule? If you want to, if you borrow money from the bank, borrow a billion dollars, I can't remember the quote. Yeah. And then the bank's invested in your success.

You know, one thing I want to share about today, and I thought this was pretty interesting. So I'm seasoned. I've been running risk managed portfolios for some time. That's where the gray hair and the black hair and all that stuff comes from. But even today, so we had a few positions, we'd already reduced a lot of exposure in the portfolios, but we had a few positions that broke support level at the end of the day yesterday. Yeah.

So, they have to break support on that day. That's a decision point. It's a decision point. It's a line that you cross. I see the futures that are down this morning, and it's amazing that the emotions and temptation, this is why discipline is so important, and you have to control your emotions. And you know, and normally I'll have that investor plan, not your emotions. So I had these thoughts come in, well, what if today is the bottom?

You know, you stop out of this. What if you wait until Monday? And, you know, we had the discussion, I stepped on the investment committee, I said, yeah, but the reality is we crossed the decision point. We don't know what the future is. The strategy says that you sell these positions on this day. What's the worst case scenario? You look like a fool for a week or two.

The damage has been done. If the Fed's not gonna come to the rescue, we're headed to a recession, then we may rally, but my expectation is the worst is still ahead of us unless something dramatically changes. Well, I'm looking here, so I'd be interested to know what some of those positions are, but the most active shares today, we had Nvidia clocking in at the top. Intel surprisingly looks like it was green on that. Ford, Lucid, and Tesla all just really getting hammered here, most active. So it looks like when we had here, let me go back to my home, let me pull in here. So Nvidia ends up finishing out at 94.31. So,

breaks the 100 mark, right? It was just recently at, I think, 100 and closing in at 140, might have hit 140, but it was in the high 30s for a long time. It looks like the AI story is over, huh? It sure does. It sure does. And you've got the individuals that are heading for the exit before. The real professionals are trying to get out. They've been selling, as you see, a lot of Microsoft, some of these other positions that have been topping. Even Apple has been looking like it's been in the topping process.

And it's never different this time. You can go back and look at the internet stocks back in the late 1990s, and then you overlay that with the AI stocks, and people buy these themes. They're not making any more land, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. 2007. Yep. And they convince themselves that this is the answer.

This is going to make things easier, and especially how inflation has squeezed households in every level, except for the extreme top couple of percent, you know, this is the answer to make life a little bit easier for me, to make it a little bit more secure. And they get out of the mathematics and they get caught up in the psychology

and the emotion and the euphoria, it's fun. It's fun. But the problem is the hangover is pretty terrible Well, I'm surprised that Bitcoin I mean it got clocked like everything and it's down for sure But watching that end-of-day rally there finishing out over 81,000. I was a little surprised I thought it was gonna dip under 80 because it's been a risk on asset for a long time And it was today was a risk off day. They did so that's that's interesting It would suggest that who was ever in on that is not connected and leveraged with all the rest of it correct in some important way I guess. Well and

one thing that that to take into consideration and this is a concern from a long-term standpoint. If I remember correctly we're in corporate buyback blackout because it's right before earnings. So, you know, we've had record after record for the past several years of corporates entering the market and buying back their stock. So you get some negative news that triggers the market to sell off while they're gone. And there's no liquidity. So you're seeing multiple asset classes drop like that. What's going to happen if these corporates have to really reinvest into manufacturing in the U.S., pay higher labor rates, and that's gone from the market? My expectation was you would see multiples, price-to-range ratios go back to historical

norms, which is, wouldn't be, continue to be overly expensive. It would be lower. So, all right, let's pretend it's tariffs for a minute then, though. So the way I understand the story right now is, and this takes almost Kissingerian levels of like genius, and I'm not sure we're there yet, but if we take it at face value,

somebody was able to do math like we are, and said, oh, we're kind of in a long-term, fundamentally bad position as the United States, right? We've been exporting dollars, did a good job, but we haven't, our manufacturing got hollowed out, our value add got hollowed out. So we can't just be forever a consuming nation who's got more and more debt. So sooner or later, you're going to have to pull a painful bandaid off of that story and get this, you know, reshoring, right?

So we're going to put manufacturing back in the U.S. The problem is, is that we have a very, very uncompetitive cost structure compared to the rest of the world. That's correct. So I don't know how you begin to square that circle, but if this is a part, we're going to use tariffs to at least level the playing field to step one. Step two, we make sure our energy is cheaper so we have a competitive advantage to offset the labor cost and also regulatory burden cost.

Maybe we whittle at regulations as best we can over time. But this is, that's like a multi-year, very ambitious, let's make America back into something it used to be but hasn't been in a long time. Yes, at least since the 70s, it was supercharged, well, 70s, early 80s. It was supercharged with globalization in the 1990s, which is great for capital. It's great for the large corporations.

It's bad for middle class. It's bad for middle class. It's bad for small business. But the process would be painful for those who are blindly and passively invested in the market and investing based off the review mirror instead of using a review mirror to learn from the mistakes of the past and then use that to be adaptive for the road signs that are ahead. Yeah, now we're gonna have to wrap up soon but I I guess, you know, looking forward, what

are you looking for Sunday night when futures open? It's a good question. And by the way, just to set this up, I've had people tell me, you know, oh, the market's oversold, but for a bounce, and I would remind them that every single crash has happened from oversold conditions. Yes. Not from, you know, overbought conditions. So I would think, and this is what I'm thinking about going into the weekend.

So all day long, all I could think is we executed, we followed our discipline on the few positions that we had. And I didn't like it, but most of the things we really enjoy from a long-term standpoint, we don't like doing initially, but you keep doing what you know will lead to good outcomes. Discipline. And so I was kind of sitting there thinking, oh, man, Fed's going to come out or Trump's going to do something on Sunday. Yeah, yeah.

Futures are going to be down. The market's going to surge dramatically higher. Well, then Chairman Powell comes out and basically says, Uncle, we're doing nothing. And Trump seems to be holding the line. So I'm really curious to see what's going to happen over the weekend. What news is going to take place? Because mom and pop are going to go home. We watch this for a living.

They're going to look at their statements. They're going to see the news media, which is going to be just talking about how horrible the tariffs are because the mainstream media, which most of them watching, most of them aren't on X or have the access to resources that we do, have learned to find the things that we do. And that fear is going to kick in. They're going to pick up and call the brokers on Monday morning and say, you know, should I get out or do I want to get out? Because modern portfolio theory says be fully invested at all times. And we look at savings rates, they're low, people are invested. So I don't know what's going to happen on Monday.

But if this builds going into the weekend and Chinese markets, European markets open lower before us, then I wouldn't be surprised to see some follow through on Monday. Right. And just to be clear, you weren't fully invested coming into this, were you? Oh, no. No. We had some, we had, you know, we had minor position, but we had dramatically reduced exposure coming into this. We have a couple of portfolios that are a little bit slower to get out, but they're

from a more aggressive investors, and even those had been reduced coming into the day. So we were very defensive and held up very good during the sell-off. Excellent. All right well I'll be talking to you Sunday night. That's the cool thing is we'll get to see each other again Monday so we can do a quick update. Yeah you might we might have fly rods that we might be on a river when we do this next. All right well hey, hey, thanks for being here, everybody. If you, again, financial advice coming from Paul and his team, you go to peakfinancialinvesting.com, fill out a simple form. This is a time to be very defensive and have a risk managed portfolio.

Strongest advice I can give, such as it is. So thanks for listening. Be nimble, everybody. Paul, thanks for your time again. It's so good to see you. All right, till next time.