Peak Prosperity - Two Shooters Back in Play!

Episode Date: August 6, 2024

The data is leading us right back to the conclusion that there were two shooters that day in Butler taking shots at Trump and the stands. Audio analysis keeps pointing right back to our initial conclusion. Also, we can now rule out the lower windows in building 6 as the source of the first three shots (and realistically the next five as well).

After more careful analysis, we're led back to the conclusion that there were two shooters at the Trump rally. Hello everyone, Dr. Chris Martinson here with another Citizens Investigation episode. We've got a lot of people weighing in and thank you, everybody, who sent us incredible analysis, shared your expertise, and did everything you could to help us get to where we are at this point in time. Particularly, any more videos, anything like that, we want the data. The audio data is the key to this at this point in time so that we can resolve some things. And by the way, we're going to have to talk about this now. Remember, just last time, well, we had another hypothesis for how it is that those first three shots could have sounded so different from the other five.

So we had to entertain that. After reanalyzing this right now, this hypothesis of two shooters, this is back to the four right now as the best fit for the data we have so remember we were thinking um with the help from the people at raven geostrategic that look at those things indicated on the arrows there those are side mounted posts you know um uh posts for for aiming right iron sights and because they're side mounted to use them the on the side you have to tip the gun over so the gun's now laying like this. And now the gases that eject out of that muzzle at the front. And let me get my little red pointer thing out here.

This muzzle at the front is going to throw the gases, hot gases, and even the flames that you would see from that muzzle flash. It's going to throw them to the side. So if you tipped it up, the thinking was maybe the sound was going up and down and it would sound totally different than if it was sideways so maybe crooks laid that gun down so he could just sneak over the top of the roof line and maybe because he was concerned about how high he was now i'm less concerned that that actually happened for two reasons one that kid just ran across the roof like, do-do-do, totally upright, like not a care in the world, just like do-do-do, jogging across the whole roof line. So I don't think he was carrying enough that he's going to need those extra couple inches to bring that gun down. Plus, we saw his head popped up in the Dave Stewart film, right?

You can see him from somebody standing just off of that big building looking up. That would be one of the hardest angles to see somebody and boink there's crook's head and we saw his head 5.3 seconds before the shooting first shots were heard so he's just up you know looking around and by the way there's not a lot of time to go from 5.3 seconds to this and get on that's not a lot of time even if it started right at that moment so the way we're looking at this now is we said, well, our scientific process, obviously we have red, yellow, green data. We like the green data. We work with it a lot. That's video. It's audio. It's pictures that we can trust. And then we start our analysis and begin to resolve the mysteries and uncertainties. And we've we've resolved a lot of mysteries. We know a lot about this whole shooting at misadventure now we we really have pretty good handle on the timeline and on what did happen and what didn't happen and

things like that but then we have to form our hypothesis the null hypothesis crooks is the only shooter shot eight shots shot number nine and ten those were from law enforcement officers was shot nine coming from an ecu counter sniper or quick reaction force member. Somebody out closer to this bleachers, the stands and then shot 10 coming from somewhere else. But that looks like it was probably the South Barn with what's called Hercules one, the Secret Service sniper team on it. Okay. And of course, hypothesis two is that Crooks shot no shots whatsoever and wasn't even involved in taking shots. So with that, hypothesis 1A is that, well, Crooks shot shots one through three and somebody else shot four through eight or vice versa.

Somebody else shot one through three and Crooks shot four through eight. We don't know. So those are the hypotheses. Now, again, this is part of the reason I'm excluding that idea that maybe it was that Crooks tipped his rifle over for those first three shots. That's why they sound different from the next five, and they really do. Here we can see this is taken. This image is less than one second from the first shot.

It's been enhanced a little bit. He's got what looks like very good hair control. He's having a shampoo commercial day. But that gun is in the upright position. There's no time to lay it over, get the sight acquisition, and start firing three careful shots. So at the time of the first shot, we can even, if I advance this frame along, somebody comes frustratingly right in front of the frame at the wrong time like that but uh but you can see that first shot and his shoulder doesn't really

appear to move at all and you don't see his hair fly or anything nothing happens you hear that first shot and it this he's dead still in that uh which could happen you know the 223 doesn't kick a lot i get it but um at any rate that gun looks to be in an upright position at this point in time okay so given that um and why do i say so because because the stock is the way the stock is sitting in if it's tipped sideways the stock's going to fit in very differently you're going to have your hand on top because the trigger is going to be over the top now so we see everything underneath which we would expect with this gun being in an upright position and plus i mean we're squinting

at it a little but this here looks like that red dot sight we can see here so to me this gun looks like it's in a completely upright position um so we're going to go with that by the way um today is august 5th monday the markets are really breaking. So for my regular subscribers, please don't miss this. Back today's scouting report, I really tear through the market meltdown, what's actually happening. I'll explain it, Chris style, of course. And I'm worried that this is the exact kind of liquidity event we would see that would cause the great taking to get activated. If you don't know what that means and you have wealth in a portfolio or stock holdings, you really need to know what that means.

Check out the great taking materials that I and other people have produced. You really need to know about that. So I just wanted to alert people that that's what's over there. Now, peak prosperity member DMunk has done some incredible work and 3D CADded up the entire site. And there we have a whole variety of things to talk through. We've got the south bleachers.

We've got the stands themselves. We've got the north bleachers. And this is building six. All the elevations laboriously poured through. Every possible measurement has been tested, battle tested. Now, here's what I did. Knowing that D-Monk is monk is a very very very careful person i gave no input i just said didn't want to in any way shape or form influence how d monk was

going to go about their analysis so i just said can you in your best you know he uses autocad can you recreate the whole scene in the shooting scenario and so he he got at it. And what did he do? Page after page of notes. He's got all these big assumptions. I won't take you through all of them, but, you know, he says, just to give you one, Building 6, using Cal Topo, which is a topographic service, he could find a clear and sudden north to south elevation jump from 1331 feet and 1333 feet, presuming the jump represents the edge between

a sidewalk running parallel to the building. So all these things have to be in elevation. Very important. The building, where is its ground floor elevation? How tall is the building? So that when somebody's on the ridgeline, you know that aspect. How tall is the north stand? Where exactly is Trump's stage? The south stands. And by the way, the ground is kind of moving across that whole topography. So getting every one of those things right, because what we really want to do is we want to line up that pink on his ear with that bullet bouncing off the back stand railing, because that's the clearest line we've got. If you draw a line between those two things, that will point you to exactly where that

first shot came from. And that's a really important thing we're trying to resolve as well. He had nine givens that he was working with. And so he really struggled and worked very, very hard, very diligently to figure out exactly how tall the building was from a variety of things. He looked at the chairs, sourced the chair model, found out how tall those are in the description from the manufacturer. There was a butt receptacle out front, which was a can, a canister for people smoking, where you put them in.

That's a known thing. He found the model, how tall it was. There are a variety of things we could use for scaling. Blah, blah, blah, comes through it all. He calculated a door height of six foot eight and a quarter inches and a stair rise of precisely seven and a half inches. And those two numbers are used a great deal in construction. They conform with Pennsylvania building code. All of this to say he's a very, very careful and diligent person who went through every single one of these.

And by the way, if we ever have to challenge one of these assumptions, we had the elevation slightly wrong, we have a slightly different thing, this just goes in the model, and now we can adjust very, very rapidly. But if you've been seeing models out there where people aren't taking you through the idea that they have a lot of unknowns, they did the best they could. Here's the wiggle room. Here's our certainty. Here's our uncertainty. Then you're probably not getting a really complete view of this whole thing.

So this modeling has to be done exceedingly carefully. What would be the best thing is if the FBI had left that that crime scene assembled so that somebody could have come in and taken a LIDAR map of that whole thing and people could have gone in and just put their eyeball right on the railing and looked past a six foot three dude standing on the stage and said. Right there, right, that would have been the best. Here we are having to half ass it. No offense to anybody who this is good work. This is really good work not that but we are out here having to recreate it which is not as good as using the original crime scene um and so i didn't yeah this is whole ass this is a very very good really good job here but uh some things pop out of this right away the first is that under all of these assumptions shooting out of the first floor windows on building six

it's kind of a non-starter because these stands are in the way so here you can see if you took this shot out and then you travel along that's what these breaks represent here there's a lot a lot of a lot of territory between those two moments and then by the time you get here with all the elevation changes and everything this shot coming out of the window like this would have passed right through here with, of course, what we're solving for on this side after the break is Trump's ear. So to do that, you actually have to pass through the stands. That seems like a very, very unlikely shot to take. So because of that, we're going to actively remove the lower windows from play right now, put them into the red category because we can't find a firing solution that makes sense coming out of those lower windows.

There were three lower windows to the right of those four vent stacks. Well, if you take those windows and you map them, you see they all clunk into these, the north bleachers here before they can get there themselves to Trump's ear over here. So that seems to be where we're at in the story right now. Now, carrying on as well, if you shot from the first floor, now the and you assume a straight line, that bullet would then be rising and would miss these stands entirely, wouldn't have a chance to hit Trump's ear and clang off of that upper railing. Now, that said, asterisk, caveat, we're going to have to wait for the weapon to be test fired to know it's zero point. Because, as Gary of Paramount Tactical explained very nicely when he dragged out his easel and his white paper when we were doing our live cast is if that if that weapon was zeroed at

25 yards and you're shooting it's zeroed at both 25 yards and the bullet keeps rising and then it comes back down again and it's zeroed out at 300 yards so that's the 25 300 zero because the bullet isn't a straight line it's a parabola it goes like this up and then down again so if it passed to trump's ear and it was zero to 25, the chances are it's still rising through that whole period of time, right? Because that's how it was zeroed out. That could account for this. I don't think so based on the calculations we did, but we would have to wait and see where that rifle was zeroed at. If it was zeroed at 100 yards, not a chance. There's not a chance in the world that by the way this CAD model has been put together,

that we would be able to say that this that window trajectory makes any sense whatsoever. But shooting from anywhere around the roof line on Building 6 gives delivers to you a perfect result here. It clangs right off of the railing and Trump's ear. Now, at the time Diemung did this, he didn't even know that it was the first shot that clanged off the railing. This is the red line he drew right here, and this is where it calculated out. And I said, well, that's exactly what happened. And so he was pleased that, you know, after a lot of diligent, careful work, that it turned out that this all worked out. Now, the thing that also arose in this, though, is it wasn't immediately clear, though,

where exactly that shot might have come from on the roof opening up this other possibility, which is here down here, we can see this is the south bleacher. This is Crook's position right here. Firing from here, missing Trump's ear, they would clang right off of the back corner that's where that railing would get intersected however if somebody was off to the side there's a little parapet over here on the side of building six which you would see as a little false front like a little square thing if you're down in the parking lot looking at

building six there on its east face right you look at it um the door that everybody would go in where the ladder was you know to properly orient this where exactly does that clang off well this a better solution if if it clangs off the railings just over to the to that side to the west a little bit if it clangs off over here that actually comports better with a firing solution that comes from over to the side of where crooks was so knowing the exact point is going to be really important and i tried to figure out if i could show you this video over and over again it wasn't good but so i just took some still frames here we have david crooks who got shot and james

copenhaver got shot also is over here somewhere and here's a guy very very lucky guy just avoided all sorts of trouble wearing a red hat and the dark shirt the black shirt there and here you can see this is the frame right before the bullet hits this is the first frame where the bullet is hit it's hit somewhere in here and it's making this gray puff of smoke with the blue arrow indicating here's that gray puff expanding out. Here's that gray puff expanding out. Those are the four frames where it goes no gray puff and then poof. So just four frames, each of these frames being a 30th of a second apart.

Clang. My point here is that I can't see a solution where this railing could have been hit behind these two gentlemen, because they're both leaning in here, they're both up against the railing, a lot of people are leaning on that railing, and you can see the gentleman with the dark shirt, he's got his left hand down on the railing, and the only place I can really think that this could have hit was actually to go through, potentially, right through, that's why he's so lucky, just in the gap between his body and his arm, and clanged off the railing off of here, on this part

somewhere. Very hard, you know, you can't exactly locate it, kind of fits, yeah, not super clear. But, if it was that this was being hit anywhere down this railing that would fit with this other shooting angle here where it's coming in missing trumps here and then clanging off somewhere down on the side of this bleacher here rather than off of the top dead center of the back corner but we can't say for sure we were going to need a lot more angles this will be a place of inquiry we're going to look at this and look at this very, very carefully. Now, that shot, though, it definitely, definitely intersects metal.

I think the railing looks like it came off the railing. We can't exclude that it came off of one of these lower balustrades here, the upright pieces. Don't know for sure, but it definitely hit metal. Now, here's the thing if you were touching that metal you're holding on to that metal and that bullet hits it's going to be a it's almost going to be like a bee sting it's going to be such a sharp clang that if you're holding on to that i believe this begins to help us explain why some people have um have made i think a little too much of how these people in the back row reacted.

Because if you notice, they have their hands, they are touching, they are holding onto, or leaning up against that railing that got impacted by that bullet. That is going to be a very kinetic event. It could be an explanation for why these people reacted the way they did. They are leaning up against something. Imagine if you were holding onto a piece of metal and somebody on the other end whacked it really hard with a baseball bat. Your first instinct, you'd probably jump. Well, trust me, even though it's a very small, tiny bullet coming out of a.223,

it's hitting with such force, it's going to be like a bee sting in essence. It's going to be such a sharp feeling. You can imagine people having what you would call an automatic or an autonomic nervous system reaction much like a uh if you're i'm old enough to remember you'd go to the doctor they'd get this little rubber thing and they test your reflexes right so they hit your knee you don't think oh my gosh my knee got hit i better move it there's this automatic reaction a reflex that happens when something unexpected jars and triggers one of your neural clusters, right?

So in the knee, you get a little ding, your leg kicks, that's a reflex. So I'm saying that it's possible these people all had a reflex action, which would be very quick. That would be a pretty decent interpretation for why they reacted, because they were holding on to something that got a buzz, like a pretty staggering buzz. So now I'm going to get to the meat of this, though. I've been going over and over it. I kept, I originally said, look, the audio analysis is most consistent with two separate weapons.

And it just sounded that way to me because I can hear a clear difference in shots one through three and four through eight. That's a qualitative difference. They just sound different, you know, and we looked at them and we said, hey, they have different frequencies, different things. Now I'm going to take it one step further. This is source four. And in our model, source four is way over to the side of the building. Okay, so that's building six, far on on the west side there were people who are on the

agr complex side they're outside of both those fence lines they're back there where crooks was hanging around these are the people who shot pictures of crooks on the roof this person source four is right in that district and so they were filming at the time and so they caught uh these are the first nine shots we can see here. And the shots are clearly visible as here's shot one, and then we have shot two and three, then we have four, five, six, seven, eight, and then we have shot nine. And I didn't run this out because shot 10 is another 10 seconds. Oops, that way. 10 seconds, 10 seconds way over there. Okay. So it's way off that way. But when we look at these here's something we can

start to notice so this is shot one i'm reasonably certain i can see an echo right here but it was a little messy i just went for two we have two very bright echoes here's the shot itself and then here's the echo of that shot so the shot happens this camera the shot sound comes to the camera first but that shot sound also went somewhere else and bounced off the surface and then came to the camera and here we can see it's an average of about 0.08 seconds when i measure them it's a little imprecise but this one was 0.083 this one was 0.077 this person is also moving a slight bit and in as they're they're kind of walking along as these shots are taken.

Maybe they moved just an extra couple of feet. So this is interesting because these two things would be consistent. That time gap right there, 0.08 seconds, is consistent with a reflective surface that that sound from the gun blast had to travel another 90 feet, had to travel an additional 90 feet. The gun blast came straight to the microphone, but the echo came from something that was like another 90 feet away. What's interesting is when we go to the five shots,

now remember these five shots are taken in just 0.77 seconds, so they stack right up on top of each other. Number one was, between one and two, was 0.256 seconds, a full quarter of a second away, which is fortunate because here we can see the shot. This is the echo at 0.17 seconds away. Look how strong that echo is right here. It's strong. And so when we look at that, this one you i think you can see the

beginning of the echo right there but it's got it's getting stepped on by that next shot same thing this echo would have fallen if it was 0.17 seconds exactly under that shot this one ate that up but this is the eighth shot and it has no following shots for another what is that well i think 1.6 seconds or something at any rate rate, we can see an echo here too, very, very clearly. These echoes are 0.17 seconds away. Totally different. I don't have any echoes on the first three

that are 0.17 seconds away. So even if we said, oh, you know, Chris, his microphone is kind of facing a different way. So they sound a little different or maybe he had his hand over the microphone for the first three and then took it off. We don't know. That's always possible.

But what we can't have is we can't have this person who moved perhaps 10 or 15 feet in this whole stretch of time, we can't have the echoes come from such entirely different spots because this, at 0.17 seconds, this echo has to be coming off of a surface that is now closer to 195 feet further away. So there's something very wrong here just in the echo signature. So how do we account for that? Because we can't account for that with the microphone sort of pointing a different direction. That would not change the echoes in this story. So what do we do with that? The most consistent thing we do with that

is we say, those shots had to have been taken in different places. And I can't tell you how far apart they are with this methodology. I can just tell you that where they were shot from and where the echoes decided to come off of are very, very different spots. Because it's more complicated to figure this out, but we can start to resolve some possibilities. Now, what if there was another way to tell?

Well, there is, and here's another way. So ShineSprite 4, back at Peak Prosperity, and I have the link to this. By the way, we're having just a romp of a citizen's investigation back there. So ShineSprite is, the person behind ShineSprite has 40 years of audio engineering experience and analysis. So really cool. And here they said in Source 4, looking at the same thing we were just looking at here, this same footage, they said, well, different method. Here's a totally different method.

Here we're looking at echoes. And I'm like, man, I can't line these echoes up. And look how strong these echoes are. I mean, that's a really strong echo there a pow and a big old echo we don't have those big strong echoes we have weak echoes and they're much closer and everything's just different right and the way we account for that is gun one is here gun two is way over there and they just are bouncing off of different surfaces so we'll have to resolve what we think the surfaces are but here shine sprayed is saying look in source four upon reviewing the video footage

during recording, one can clearly see the videographer shuffling away from the source of the shot. So they're moving along, right? Good point. Adding distance, therefore time. Now, they're looking at a variance in the delay compared to the stationary position of Trump's mic. So we have this incredible thing, which is Trump's mic.

It's not moving. It's just sitting there. And all the shots were strung towards it. So we get some really important information off of Trump's mic because we get the snick of the bullet. That's the supersonic snick. And then we get later the report of the gun. And both of those are fixed in space and they're not moving.

So now you can compare. That's what they've done here you compare the how long did it take for the boom to get here versus how long did it take for the boom to get to this other mic source four they should be the same if there was one gun in one spot the boom should take this long to get here and it should take that long to get there once you account for the fact that source four is moving a little bit fortunately we don't have two things moving because trump's mic is just stuck there amazing so under the null hypothesis that there's just one shooter in its crooks then if it's just one shooter that delay crack boom that boom getting to here should be the same

getting to the other one. But what they find instead is they say there appears to be a vast difference in the delay of shots one through three versus four through eight, even when accounting for a few extra feet of distance gained by the videographer's movements. And here's what they come up with. Again, there's the link down there. ShineSprite4, thank you for this analysis. So here's what they come up with. The difference between Trump's mic and Source 4 using a speed of sound of 1,203.6 feet per second, it really wouldn't matter if we used 149. There's people disagreeing over what the speed of sound was that day under those exact climactic conditions. It won't matter to this analysis because whether you fix the speed of sound at 1,200 or 1,1449, you're still going to get the same gap

coming out. So hold that criticism. We'll be working hard to make sure we have an agreed upon speed of sound that day at that time. Okay. So Trump's mic's timestamp at 0.000, difference from source four is zero. We're fixing everything to that first boom. Okay. That first shot, shot one, making it to Trump's mic that's that's the that's the fixed point of reference we're all done great so then here is the difference in timing so zero and then three milliseconds seven milliseconds it looks like if you were just using this audio signature you would say wow this person moved maybe eight feet between one two and three so that would give them an average speed of about seven feet per second as they're moving with their camera right um that's not unthinkable speed but

then shots four five six seven eight nine all of a sudden we have these gaps which jump out to 32 33 34 37 37 so these are very very different so how do we account for that? If we said the videographer continues to move at that same 7.1 feet per second, we're still missing a bunch of feet. Something's happened here. So their analysis says this supports the two-shooter theory, with shots 1 through 3 being a minimum of 12.75 feet closer to source 4 than shots four through eight so closer so it's an interesting analysis so now we have to begin asking some questions which is like well this has been my problem with the two shooter theory is like where do i where do i put them like where

are they it doesn't quite work out in those upper two-story windows but maybe we have the muffling of shots one through three so it feels like they're they're hidden a little bit they must be behind something there's not that many spots we know that there's a second window open on that two-story building that is this is uh how would i let me see where I'd put that. Um, I'll have to, I'll see if I have a, another slide where I can put that in there. Um, no, I know where it is. Yeah, let's go here. So this is Crook's shooting spot. This is the two-story building that the ECU snipers left magically for those five critical minutes. And there's a window right here. And so there's always a possibility that somebody was leaning out this window and shooting this

way, which provides one firing solution. And then there's one other thing we have to talk about, which is a possibility doesn't quite line up with this analysis. But of course, that's why the investigation is continuing. So here there's that. Remember, I said there's this parapet on the front of Building 6 here. So there would be a motorcycle park down here. And over here on this side is where there was a ladder. And this is where presumably all the police were in here hanging out, playing cards while the shooting was happening and all that.

So this is this parapet. And here it's been cadded out so we can see exactly that somebody could actually be hiding behind it here and shooting and so uh roger knight here this morning back at peak prosperity here's the link again down for that particular investigation said that if this is where crooks was you got another 43 feet and somebody could have been hanging out in this little parapet well back here and that is another spot where somebody could have been hiding we don't know yet what we do know is that the audio analysis says we have very very different echo signatures we are going to have to figure out and explain as well we have a time delay that seems to also combine now to indicate that these two guns are

in different places and so we have to begin to account for that and right now that's sufficient that we can't exactly place that perfectly into a second shooting position we'll have to resolve that we don't know at this point in time but right, the data is back on the table supporting the idea that there are two guns being shot, one through three, very different from shots four through eight. Obviously, shot nine is an official law enforcement, shot 10, official law enforcement. No complaint about those at this particular stage. So how do we make sense of that? Don't know yet, but that's why the citizens investigation is continuing please anything you got anybody particularly who has any video from off to the west side of building six we need that video and audio very badly anybody else has audio from anywhere else particularly the

closer to the agr6 building you are the more useful that data is going to be so if you have it please share it please upload it and we want the raw files if possible instead of something that's been compressed onto twitter or youtube because we want we want the full richest of that sound so with that thanks very much for listening and remember if you want to talk about the markets and all that too peak prosperity hey we analyze all kinds of stuff and try and make sense of the world to help you get through it in a faster, more prosperous, profitable way. All right. Thanks. See you next time. Bye.