PHLY Philadelphia Eagles Podcast - Eagles Over/Unders: Will Jalen Hurts surpass 3,200 passing yards? Does Saquon Barkley score 12 TDs?

Episode Date: June 30, 2025

While preparing for the Eagles’ 2025 season, Zach Berman and Fran Duffy take a look at bet365’s over/unders — along with some other numbers — to see which Eagles hit statistical benchmarks. The projections range from Jalen Hurts’ passing stats to Saquon Barkley’s rushing stats to A.J. Brown’s receiving stats to Nolan Smith’s sack production to Cooper DeJean’s interceptions. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Will Jowen Hertz throw for over 3,200 yards? Will Sequan Barkley run for over 1,450 yards? Will you place over unders this year before you do? Listen to what Fran Duffy has to say next on the P.HLY Eagles Show. A Monday edition of the P.HLY Eagles Show, I'm Zach Berman here with Fran Duffy. We are brought to you by True Mark, by True Mark Financial Credit Union. And this is a fun day. It's the last day of June.

Yep. But it's, we're football season's inching closer and closer and closer. We're about three plus weeks away from training camp. We get Fran Duffy back. We have a piece up on all p.chly.com on the college quarterbacks. First off, Fran, welcome back. Thank you, man. Yeah, it was a nice week off with the family and I.

We went down to, down to Disney World for the week. So it was a fun, hectic, crazy, but memorable week for sure. the concept today, or the conceit, as Beau would say, is overunders. You all place them, you all look at them. You want to know it's the statistical overrunners. We'll wait for the win total overunders across the NFL when the season approaches.

But you can go on to our friends at Bet365 now and place these bets. But before you do, you should listen to what we have to say. So we're going through the statistical measures from Bet365, whether it's J-G-1 Hertz, Sequin Barclay, J. Brown, Devante Smith, Dallas Goddard. And then we have some homemade metrics as well that we will look at. That includes some defensive players and Jehan Dots.

And so that's going to be fun. But before we do, we should also catch up on what's going on around the NFL. And this is going to be the big deal brought to you by Cherry Hill Jeep. So the big deal today happened in the NFL between the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jalen Ramsey goes to Pittsburgh along with Jono Smith, Pittsburgh, and then the dolphins bring back their old friend, Minka Fitzpatrick. What was your take on this trade?

You know, it was interesting because it was like a broken waves. So you got the word that are Jaylon Ramsey's going to the Steelers. And I was like, okay, Jalen Ramsey's Steelers. This makes sense. They're going to pick up a lot of contract. They're pushing all their chips in. And then we find out, oh, Minka Fitzpatrick is actually going to the Dolphins. caught me off guard when I said that I was not expecting that hat to drop that that shoe to drop that shoot a drop that shoe to drop that shoe drops not the hat not the hat yeah with the hat we'll talk about hats later that's true uh hats are on your mind um but uh then you find out oh johnnew smith also going from miami from philly as you once told me that's correct yep uh so to me when i'm looking at this uh i don't know if the steelers got better or worse uh you know i think if you were to ask me which player do i want three years

from now, four years from now, it's probably Minka Fitzpatrick. Now that said, I don't know that either player, like obviously had their best year last year. So this is an interesting trade for sure, especially for June 30th. And what's interesting, too, is I think there were Eagles fans that might have been wondering if they would acquire Jell and Ramsey. I don't think that was ever in the cards. I do wonder had they known, or if Mika Fitzpatrick was available earlier this year, if that's someone they might have looked into.

Nonetheless, the Eagles will not see the Steelers this year. No. And they will not see the dolphins this year either. So this is not a trade that will be consequential for Eagles fans until if they see one of them in the Super Bowl. Let me ask you this. So Adam Schefter just tweeted out a little before we went to air talking about T.J. Watt. And apparently teams had expressed interest in trading for T.J. Y and now,

and he's still unhappy with his current deal, you know, was not a participant over the course of the soft season with workouts and things like that. Some teams now think that today's trade makes them more likely to trade. Watt. Do you think they are more likely or less likely to trade T.J. Watt based off of this trade today? Yeah, I can understand why that speculation comes from a financial perspective, right? You just added J. Owen Ramsey. The way I see it, though, practically is if you signed Aaron Rogers, acquired D.K. Metcalfe, trade for Jalen Ramsey, even though you give up Minka Fitzpatrick, signed Darius Slay. This is not like a four-year plan, right? You're trying to win this year. Aaron Rogers already went on record saying that this will be most likely be his last season.

T.J. Watt's probably the best player on the team. If they traded T.J. Watt, that would surprise me right now. That would be very, very surprising. But something certainly to watch, especially with a team like Washington in the division that is still starving for that edge rush help. And we know that Adam Peters, Dan Quinn, they've been very aggressive on the pro market. So that could be something to watch, certainly. It's something we will monitor throughout this summer. We will have shows each day. People say, what do you talk about in June and July?

and the answer, of course, is over and unders, right? And whether it's a hat or a shoe that drops. Yes, yeah, this is something that it's a show I always look forward to because not just does it help you, the viewer, and the listener, if you were to place these bets, but also it's a good way to talk about the types of seasons we might expect from the Eagle statistics, from their top statistical performers. So I actually, and we have Brenna here, so we're lucky. Brennan's producing.

I told Brenna we're going in the order that I sent them. Okay. Should we stick to that and go with the order? Should we jump around player to player? You literally just told her seven minutes ago? Yeah. So I was thinking, though, because I, but then you're doing all jail and you're doing all safe line, you're doing all IJ.

Let's stick to the order. I like the order. Yeah, let's stick to the order. Because you know what? You're taught at an early age in your career, early time in your career, always write the quarterback. The quarterback's the lead. Why would we be talking about?

the quarterback in the B block of the show. You talk about the quarterback in the A block of the show. And so the first one here, the first over under, and this is from Bet365, is Jalen Hertz passing yards, 3,2005 yards. I'm asking you, Fran, over or under. So contextually, what I tried to do is let me look at the last three or four years of this player's career just to get a sense of, all right, how often did they hit this number? Last year, in 15 starts, Jalen hit 20, 2,900 yards, just over 2,900 yards. So he missed two games. Would have needed just 150 yards in both of those games to hit the over on that,

on the, on his yardage total. In 2023, in 17 starts, he way surpassed that, 3,800 yards throughout passing. 2022, he had 3,700 yards. So again, hard over. In 2020, 2021, in 15 starts again. He actually, he's only had started 15 games in three out of the last four years, which is interesting. He came just shy.

I was thinking about last year and obviously look at it all ended it ended in a Super Bowl trophy but we have to remember the kind of the arc of Jalen Hertz's season where they came out throwing the football they wanted to be a past first team we know that that's how this organization feels

and it was a rocky start to the season and Jalen Hertz through the middle section of the season even as they started to lean into the run game he just wasn't playing his best ball he was not playing to the standard and as he says like the standard is the standard he was not matching that level of play and he got he was on an upward trend as we got to the end of the season.

I think you and I are on the same boat that we feel pretty strongly, they're going to come out of the gates throwing this year. I think they're going to come out and really trying to assert themselves, you know, as a passing team. And I think when you look at Jalen Hertz, if he can come out and maybe he's not playing to the quike to the peak that he was in February, but if he plays the way that he was in, you know, late December and early January, certainly by the time you got into the middle of the playoffs,

yeah, he should he should hit this well. I'm taking the over here. Yeah, I am, I'm with you there for the, for the reason of I'm expecting the past the ball, like you said. I know everyone looks at last year and says, why change? What worked? If it's not broken, don't fix it. But I just, I look at it. They don't have Joe and Hertz, AJ Brown.

They didn't pay AJ Brown and Devante Smith the block, right? And, you know, it's, it worked last year. Teams are going to continue to evolve, or I should say, defense is. will evolve. The other thing to do is, and we'll get to it. I don't know if Sequin's going to have quite the prolific year that he had last year. I'm expecting the Eagles to pass the ball more. This is really not that high a number, like you said, 3,200 yards. And he exceeded this number in 2000 and in 22 and in 2023. It would surprise me if he's not over this number. If he's not over this number, I imagine it's more injury related than offense related. Yeah, or it's

That's a bad sign. If he doesn't hit it again, with some of the struggles he had last year, all he would have to do is throw for 150 yards and if he is healthy for those two games, and he hits that. So I think, yes, I think when you look at this, I feel pretty strongly that this would be a nice over. Yeah, for context here, 19 quarterbacks in the NFL last year exceeded 3,200 yards.

So I would expect Jowen Hertz, even though he was 20th last year, to be more in that top 19 this year. Staying on Jowen Hertz, let's go. Jowen Hertz passing touchdowns, 19 and a half. And I put in here, the under is plus 100. So they're actually trying to incentivize you to go under here. Yeah, I went over here as well on this one.

He only threw 18 last year. Again, run heavy offense, missed a couple games. But he hit 23 in 2020. He hit 22 passing touchdowns back in 2022. So standard reason maybe he hits 25 to get to 2025. But I think when you're looking at this, again, I just, when I look at the way that this team wants to operate, now what gets cloudy here is how much you think that the touch push,

you know, what do those rushing touchdowns do to his passing touchdown numbers? We made the point that like, I think it was Bo that might have correct me from wrong. It was either you or Boe when everything was going off the touch push vote. To like secretly, one of the people who's upset that it didn't get, that didn't get outlawed is Jalen Hertz. Like that he might be like, he might want to prove and say like, hey, like I, I'm not just like this. to push-pose cheat sheet. Like I got also a pretty good player outside of that. So I don't know.

I just feel like there might be, if Jalen Hertz, we know like he's always looking for that extra motivation. He's won that Super Bowl. He got the Super Bowl MVP, you know, time, you know, top 100, like all that stuff. I think that he might,

this might be the sort of thing that might be able to motivate him would be like trying to eclipse some of these kind of metrics here and put himself over the top that way. Yeah, I'm with you there. I went over now. It surprised me to see

that only 12 quarterbacks last year exceeded this, this number, 19, or we're at around this number here. I would expect Jan 1 Hertz to throw the ball more. I would expect J.N. Hertz to be in that range. And if he doesn't get over 20 touchdowns, yeah, that would certainly surprise me. So I am going over here as well. What do you got the next one? The next one here is the rushing yards here. So this is interesting.

600 and oh I'm sorry uh yeah it should be rushing yards rushing yards here there we go johen hertz rushing yards 600.5 so does jow and hertz become a 600 yard rusher this year i'm going under yeah so i wanted to go under and then i looked at it and i was like oh well he's he's done it every year every year every year he hit it and so i'm like all right well even if he does run a little bit less this year if i'm even up projecting that he all right he starts 16 games seven 17 games, I still feel pretty good that he might hit it. So I actually wrote down over, even though my initial gut reaction was under. Yeah, I initially wrote down over and then I changed it to under just because,

I didn't want to go over on everything. Yeah, right. But also something's going to have to give. If he's passing more, my guess is he's running less or having fewer runs. It's really hard to predict rushing stats. The other thing, too, and you saw this in 2021. If Jalen gets a lower body injury at some point, then he could return to the field,

but maybe run less than he typically does. So to guard myself here, I went under, but I really didn't feel strongly about this. I should also say everyone watching at home right now or watching at work, chime in the chat. Let us know what you think about all these over-unders. And then if you're watching after the fact, comment below, because I promise you I read every single one of those comments.

So let's go with Jalen hurts rushing. touchdowns 12.5 and this one is probably tush push related yeah i mean he had 14 last year he had 15 the year before he had 13 in the super bowl run in 2022 uh he had 10 back in 2021 this was another one where i was like all right i'm going back and forth on the over and the under this one i did go under this one this one i went under um you know just because i feel like the the rushing aspect in terms of like yardage you could say like all right like as a scrambler cuby design like this little but i I feel like this might be a narrative-driven thing of like, all right, I'm not just push.

I'm going to either we're handing the ball off to Sequin here because he's not going to get 2,000 yards rushing. So we're going to try and feed him the ball near the goal line to keep him happy. And also, Jalen's going to try and push this through with his arm and finish these drives off. I like what you did there, push this through. Yeah, this is more circumstantial than anything else.

Like how many times are they going to stop at the one-yard line or inside the five? And in the past, it's been pretty frequent. If you remember Saquan Barkley was a guest on Jason Kelsey's podcast, I think it's called New Heights. They might need a little bit of the PHL-wide boost. So we'll give him that. But yeah, so and Jason's advice to Saquan was don't get stopped at the one yard line

because then it's just going to be a touch push. And we've seen that time and time again. I think that if there are more passing touchdowns, obviously, then they're not stopped at the one as often. we'll see what happens with Sequin. We'll see if maybe Sequin gets more of those short yardage carries. I still think the Eagles are going to lean into the tush push. No pun intended there.

But I think that just to be safe here, I'm going under on 12.5. Yeah. Again, I went back and forth that when it came to the rushing total, I do think that we're going to see more again, this is how they came out last year. They came out wanting to throw the ball. And we saw the volatility there. So if things go awry early on, I think that's when you break glass in case of emergency.

They lean into Saquan Barkley in the run game. But I think if they had their druthers and also, honestly, like to keep the to maintain the health and longevity for Saquan Barkley, you probably don't want to run him into the ground the way that you did a year ago. I think you're asking for trouble based off recent history with running backs that have carried the load the way that he did a year ago. And so I do think that they're going to want to try and go in and make sure that they're able to conserve him. I think that throwing the football more often in the first half of the season is a way to be able to do that. Speaking of Sequin and conserving Sequin, this might be the one that is the most polarizing this year among Eagles fans. And that's Sequin Barclay rushing yards, 1,450 y' and 50 and a half here over or under.

And the context here, of course, is that Saquan Berkeley had 2,05 rushing yards in the regular season last year. So this over under puts him at, you know, like a 550-yard drop from last season. Which if he had run for 1,451 yards last year, that would have been a career high. That was the only time he ever hit this benchmark was last season. And so when I'm looking at this, he said, all right, well, is he going to run for 600 fewer yards than a year ago? Like, I don't know if it's 600, but also like, and you don't want to talk about it, but you have to worry about the eye word injury, durability, like all that's it.

You do have to worry about that again, with recent history of running backs that have carried the load that often, you know, and coming back off of that. So I took the over. I don't feel super confident on it. I do think that when you're looking at it, say, all right, well, you know, this is a,

we saw the talent. We know this offensive lines back. This entire ecosystem is back. Even if he doesn't run for 2,000 yards. Like, is he going to run for 1,600? Then it's an easy, it's an easy over. I think at this point, as I'm sitting here on June 30th.

Yeah, I've hit over. I don't know. How do you feel about it? I went under. Yeah. And maybe I've... I don't blame me for it. I've been the Debbie Downer when it comes to Sequin this year.

He had... Look, history's not kind to people to running backs who have that type of volume. Yeah. It doesn't mean that he's going... And it might not even be volume related. It's just, it's hard to stay healthy two years in a row. Yep. At that position, there are so many factors.

Like, if we were talking about... this time last year, we wouldn't have expected Christian McCaffrey to have the season that he did. It seems, you know, Derek Henry's really been the only one who's like consistently had those types of years. And even in Saquan's career, the year after the big year, there tends to be a drop-off. Now, is it this significant of a drop-off? It's, I'm going with under here just because, look, if he misses five games. Yes. I don't think, if he's, if he's healthy this year, I got to think he's somewhere between, you know, 1,500, 2,000 yards. But it's just, it's hard to predict that type of health.

Also, only three running backs last year exceeded 1,450 yards. That was Saquan, Barclay, Derek Henry, and Bijjan Robinson. So around the league, you don't typically see this. And then even when Miles Sanders and DeAndre Swift had those strong seasons under Nick Siriani, you weren't talking, you know, 14,500 yards. So I am going with the under here. Yeah, that's what I went back and forth on it. And look, anyone that watched our Spread Your Wins and Fly draft last summer,

I am an overly optimistic person. I'm taking a lot of overs here. I took a lot of the overs in that draft back then. I typically want to say like, oh, yeah, like that'll happen. But I am very open to the possibility that I'm wrong on this. And I do think that ultimately this question is, do you think he's going to be healthy for 16 games, 17 games? And if you think he's going to be healthy, this is an easy over and you're going to make

your money. and if you think that he could get dinged up and miss a few games, that's when this comes to the question. By the way, I love the fact that you're overly optimistic. Lean into optimism. Lean into optimism. Choose optimism, not pessimism. You want to be around an optimistic person, right?

Yeah, I'd like to say if you fixate on the worst case scenario and it actually happens, you lived it twice. Right. So let's go one more, Sequan Barkley won before the break. And that is Seekwan Barkley rushing touchdowns. So this one, this is 11.5. and this one might not be as like touch related as the rushing yard. So over under 11 and a half touchdowns.

And again, last year, if he had run for 12, that would have been the first time in his career that he did it. Now, he only hit 13 last year. But this is a pretty big number they're still giving him. I am going to take the over here because again, if I'm taking the under on the Jalen Hertz rushing touchdowns, I think that they're going to swing back the other way somewhere. I'm going to go with the over here for Sequin.

Berkeley 11 and a half touchdown runs. Absolutely. That was my logic, too. I don't think they're going to stop scoring touchdowns on the ground. And if Jowen's not rushing them, it's not as if AJ Dillon's going to be rushing for eight, nine, ten touchdowns this year. Maybe I'm wrong. So I am going to go with, I'm going with the over.

I think Sequin gets in the end zone also. Shameless plug. There was a piece up on all p.gloy.com during the season. When I spoke to Sequin about getting stopped short, like, and then the push push comes in, and how he he dealt with it. He was unfortunate last year in the amount of times that he just missed the end zone, and then J. Owen Hertz comes in.

I think he's going to score the touchdowns. Let me ask you this question. So we talk about the, the organization knows the thin ice that they're working on with Sakelaan Barkley coming off this workload. What are some of the things that you think they could realistically do? There's a lot of different ways they can do,

they can go about trying to take some work off of his plate. What do you think is the most likely path? Like, does it mean more, Will Shipley. Does it mean, you know, A.J. Dillon makes the team and is the goal line back? Does it mean, you know, trying to cycle, you know, leaning more into the past. What do you think are the ways that they can take some of that load off of sake? Yeah, it's great question. I think leaning in the passing is the quick answer here. Because if they're going to want to keep A.J. Brown and Devante Smith and J.

J.L.N. Hertz happy. Kevin Petulow, I think you're going to see more of a vertical offense than you've seen in the past. Now, they couldn't incorporate Shipley or incorporate Dylan. But I think the easy answer here is like like manufacturer touches for a j manufacturer touches for devante smith never go into the second half or third quarter of a game with a j brown only having two two targets so my guess is uh passing the ball more than ever yeah that would that would be my gut as well uh and i do agree with you in terms of the verticality of the offense i think that it's probably a little bit more reminiscent of what we saw in 2022 than what we saw in 2024 schematically philosophically here with this past game. So does that passing game lead to more yards, touchdowns, catches for

AJ Brown, Devante Smith? To find out, stay with us after the break. I mentioned True Mark Financial at the top of the show and I want to mention them here too because summer's here. It's been hot out and the kids are out and about hanging with friends, maybe even picking up a summer job. It's the perfect time to set those kids up with something that teaches real world money skills and gives them a little freedom, the Greenlight debit card and money app. If you're a True Mark financial member, you can get a free Greenlight account for your kids or teens.

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with this custom headware, head over to brandedbills.com, use that code B-B-B-P-H-L-Y. You get 15% off of your first order. That's our friends over at branded bills. First off, good job with that, read, man. What is your yard hat? So I've got, it's honestly, it's your travel hat.

Oh, just the black. Just the black, yeah, just a very, very basic generic black hat. I've got, I've got, let's see, I've got a Philly's hat that I, that's all right, if I'm going to,

even if I'm going to a Sixers game, I've got, I've got my old Philly's hat. Yeah, I've got, I've got something for golf. I've got, I've got a separate one.

That's it, that's all white, with a red temple tea. What's funny is, I actually was given a red temple hat with a, with white letters, that's just temple across.

It's too reminiscent to another different, another red hat with light letters. I can, I can't wear that one. So if we're going, we're going, we're going, all white hat with the temple tea, that's, that's the golf hat.

So yeah, you know, you got to mix it up a little bit. And then speaking of, of wardrobe, one of the things I always respect about you is you're more adventurous than I am when it comes to colors. Right? So as I walked it or as you walked in today, I was like, I like that shirt. It pops. No, thank you. It pops.

Second time wearing this one. This is a new one. Are we calling that plum? Are we calling that magenta? I would say this is probably more of a magenta. Magenta. Right? Okay.

I like that. I like that. Thank you. We have a super chat here. before we get we get on this is this looks to be from shee we always appreciate your your contributions look at the labeling here my girlfriend and i are flying tomorrow i showed her zba's pda couple playing story from super bowl week zb are you finally sleeping better in the off season uh shay thank you first off for the contribution second off uh good luck on the flight with your

girlfriend um and third i'm sleeping better this off season than I do during the season. That is a goal of mine. And it's not perfect. There have been some Advil PM nights in there. But I can assure you that my aura ring is happy with my performance right now. So I woke up. I said they.

It complimented me on my sleep last night. So hopefully I can keep that rolling. And I hope. You like the aura ring? I love the aura ring. Meg uses the aura ring. I'm still on the Apple Watch. Okay.

Do you think the Apple Watch does a good job with sleep? I don't do the sleep stuff because I feel I feel like I would be overly obsessive with trying to look at it. And then I get my own head about it. And I'm going to sleep. So to me, I'm just like, all right, I'm going to go on her system with the sleep. Meg loves it. Yeah, I don't blame her.

Yeah. She loves the aura ring. So she's been all about that for the last couple months. Yeah. And then you can like, if you had a big meal and your heart rate was high or you drank and your heart rate was high. See, I don't like that stuff. You see, the more data, the better.

That's what I want, right? If I'm a GM, give me more data. Give me more data points. It was a couple of years ago. I was sitting and working. I was watching, it was a Monday. I'm watching film. And I'm just sitting there.

I was, well, it was, it was like, it was two seasons ago. And I was just sitting at my desk. And I was fighting a cold. And I could feel, like, I'm getting sick. And I get a notification on my watch that, like, your heart rate is abnormally high. And I'm like, what is going on now? So it was just like, oh, yeah, like, that happens with the virus. like your heart rate will rise.

That freaked me out for months on end, and I was becoming obsessive over looking at the heart rate stuff. Now I tried not to even look at it. That kind of stuff, that weirds me out. I like the steps and the activity tracking, that stuff I'm all about with the smart devices. I'll just say, was it accurate?

Were you getting sick? Oh, yeah. I was able to, so it was great. Like I called my doctor, called me a Zipak. I was good a few days, but yeah, the heart rate stuff. That affected me for a few months.

That's the benefit right there, right? You always want to know when there's traffic ahead. Now, speaking of different data points, let's get the data points on these wide receivers. Starting off with AJ Brown receiving yards, 1,150.5 yards, Fran, over or under. He came within 100 yards of hitting this last year. He came at 1079, well over in 2023,

well over in 2022. This is an easy over for me. Yeah, I agree. I think if he's healthy for 50, 15 games, 16 games, AJ Brown should hit 1150. I feel very confident about that. Yeah, I was with you here.

He was over 1,400 yards the previous two seasons. Last year, he was banged up and the Eagles ran the ball. At a relatively historic rate. It would surprise me if they're not passing the ball more. As long as AJ Brown stays healthy, this is an easy, easy over. Honestly, like the past numbers with Hertz, I was looking, I'm like, all right, like, yeah,

I think this is over. Like, I'm following like gut. I'm following instinct and what I think. it's not congruent with these receiving numbers. And we'll talk about Devante's in a bit. These are like easy, easy overs that maybe our friends, our listeners, our viewers can take advantage of this. That's why you can.

Because to me, these are easy. So now let's move on to Devante Smith. Is this one easy or not? Receiving yards, 850 and a half yards over or under. Again, he started 13 games last year in a run heavy offense, and he had 833. this number is criminally low, like crazy, crazy low. 1,000, 66 yards in 2023, nearly 1,200 yards in 2022.

He had 916 as a rookie in 2021, 850, like all day, easy, easy over. Yeah, I'm with you here. I think Devante Smith's underrated as it is. I think he's a bit forgotten about because of that year last year. Devante is just so reliable, so consistent. it would surprise me if Devante is not a thousand yard receiver. Yeah, I mean, this is like a, these are the numbers where you're going in in like May, June, you're like, all, what numbers can I get ahead of if you're looking around the NFL?

This is an easy one. Jump on and, you know, collect your money in January. This is an easy one. So receiving yards might be easy. Are receiving touchdowns easier to project here? Let's go, AJ Brown, receiving touchdowns 7.5 over or under. And I should say the over is plus 100 here. Yeah, so the over is plus 100.

Seven and a half. This is a tough one. He hit seven last year. He hit seven in 2020. Obviously, he was 11 in 2022. There's a huge year. He only had five the year before. I think the thing with,

and we've had the A.J. Brown discussion this off season. I think you and Bo both felt like, all right, if I had to bet who's here longer between A.J. Brown, Devante Smith, both of you guys said, AJ. I still feel it would be Devante. I'm still a little bit worried about A.J. long term like me. like that that kind of thing that obviously was a reason why tennessee moved on um but i mean seven and half i do feel i mean he didn't hit it either the last two years but again if i feel that we're going

to see less jaylain hurts running uh and less saquan barkley running i think that we're going to see uh more throwing obviously and i think a j brown is the one of the benefactors that in the end zone uh yeah i am i'm going with a j brown over here and i was thinking when you said a show someone told me over over the weekend. You guys talk about A.J. Brown a lot on your show. And I'm like, we do five shows a day here around, right? He's one of the best players. AJ Brown over here.

Now, the plus 100 incentivizes you to go that way. I would say thank you, Bet 365. A.J. Brown can catch deep balls. He can catch short balls. He can catch intermediate balls. He's over Morocco right now. When he gets back and he gets ready for training camp, he'll get ready for over 7.5 touchdowns.

He's over in Morocco or he's literally over Morocco? Oh, well, good question. He was, I don't know if he's staying in Morocco or there was something from Italy to Morocco or Morocco to Italy. So I don't know if he's on his way from Morocco to Italy or on the way to Morocco. He connected in Italy. Perhaps that's what that's what it is. I respect his like, look, my wife would love him because he's like, he records everything on these vacate. You know, he's taking all these photos.

I try to get away like, you know, don't show me. but he's he's putting everything on Instagram. Yeah. So are you not taking pictures like at all on your own, on these vacations? Like just keep it on your phone? I've got a million photos of videos of my phone for last week. I didn't post anything.

Yeah, I have something that I keep in my phone. I mean like Emily and the kids, I don't need to be in photos. I can. Yeah. I know what I look like. So, um,

so, Devonte Smith receiving touchdowns 6.5 over or under. He's hit the over on, even last year. year. Now, he was, he ran hot on touchdowns last year. Sure. That was like a saving grace last year. Yeah. If you're looking at his overall usage, he scored more touchdowns than receivers that are targeted as often as he was. Again, he ran hot there. But still, he had eight last year. He had seven the year before. He had seven

year before that. He's hit the over in each of the last three. We talk about how like, yeah, that usage should, we should see an uptick there. I'm hitting the over here for Devante Smith. Yeah, I'm, I'm with you because look, if, if I went over for passing touchdowns for jailing, then I don't think this is going to be like a big uptick in John Dotson touchdowns. I don't think all of a sudden Johnny Wilson is going to have five touchdowns.

The beneficiaries are going to be AJ, Devante, and to an extent Dallas Godder. Right. And Devonte, I don't want to say despite his size, but at his size, sometimes he's not viewed as like this really good red zone receiver. It's actually

that's not the case. He's so good of contested catches. He's so good contorting his body. He high points balls. We've seen that time and time again. We saw it with a dagger play in the Super Bowl. What he can do with contested catches. In the end zone, so much of it's about contested catches,

give me Devante Smith over 6.5. And again, these are all numbers that you can jump on with our friends at Bet365 right now and take advantage of. Great job because that is the end of our Bet365. Don't we have, isn't there a Dallas number in there? Is there a job? I have a Dallas got it receiving yards. I think you passed over it on the way.

Oh, my fault, yes. Sorry, Brennan. I am hop skipping and jumping here. I got so excited, I think, talking about A.J. Brown. But I wanted to make sure we got it in there because this is another one that people get in. This is an actual one. Yeah, so this is the last bet three, six, five, one.

And it's good, because we'll get to this before the break here. This is, you can go on to your app and, and bet this. Dallas got it receiving yards, 575.5. Okay. So he had just under 500 last year in 10 games, where he had two IR stints. And he, so he came within 79 yards of doing that while missing eight games, seven games. Yeah, I took the over here again. If he hit 592, so he hit it in 2023 and 14 games. He had 700 yards in 12 games in 2022. He had 830 yards and 15 games in 2021. Obviously, that's without A.J. Brown

in the fold. So, yeah, like if Dallas Goddard doesn't have two injury reserve, two stints on injured reserve, he's hitting the over here. And so you're just betting on health at this I think that's another. I feel like I'm Mr. Over again, but I'm taking it here. I'm taking the over. Yeah. So, betting on health with Dallas God, it's been a tricky proposition. Sure, yes.

But the thing is, even when he misses time, like, for instance, in 2022, like you said, he plays 12 games, he's 702 receiving yards, right? So ever since he became the top tight ends after Zach Hertz's exit, he's, he's been on pace, like, for over the. this total each time. So I'm going slightly over. I don't have the same conviction here, but you can probably see a trend that my overs are passing ones and my unders are rushing ones. Yeah. And that's probably where the odds makers at Bet365 and I differ. Yeah. And we'll get into now the differences between the other numbers we're going to talk about versus these are the actionable items that you can take advantage of now over with Bet365. But we've got some more numbers to hit too.

So should we hit one of these now or should we get to the break as a natural break? Okay. So if you want to know, for instance, whether Nolan Smith will have over seven and a half sacks, if Quinion Mitchell will have over two and a half interceptions, you are going to have to stick around to hear a word from our partners. I want to tell everybody here today about one of my favorite companies, because it's the company that I used to make these overunders last night or to research these overunders last night. And that is Bet365. I mean, we're talking about them during the ad break here. We've been talking about them the whole show, right?

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Restrictions apply. Visit Empire Today slash PHLY for full details. You know, I was looking at my phone during the ad read because I was getting these alerts about flash flood warnings. And then I heard that, I heard the rolling thunder. And ever since the power was out for three days last week, I get this like just shock through my system. Like, oh, God, power, please don't go out. Power, please don't go out. So hopefully the power does not go out.

A lot of people in our neighborhood. I was gone last week for most of this. But it was like a lot of people like complaining on social media about like the, you know, Oh, like how long it took the, like, I don't know. Like, they're doing their best. They're not leaving you. Like, it could be very, very frustrating. But it felt like a lot of complaining last week for the power.

Yeah, it's, it's tough because like when it's, it's 100 degrees. Yeah. So that's right. And like you just, you, I don't want to say you can't be home. Right. Like it becomes. It's tough to be home. Yeah.

It's tough to be home. So, um, yeah, it's tough. But, uh, I hear the, uh, rolling thunder. I'm supposed to go to Washington, D.C. tomorrow just like Shea. I was going to take read to the Smithsonian. and the nationals games. Nice.

But it looked like there's going to be storms there. Yeah. We're not sure. He's got a fun schedule at camp, so he nicks that. But that's kind of what I'm paying attention to the weather for. Yeah. Francis is at his first day of camp today. So it sounds like they're inside right now.

Nice. So we did the bet 365, or I'm sorry, overunders, but I knew that wasn't going to be sufficient in terms of like talking about this full show. And I knew there's some other ones I wanted to get into, including receptions and defensive ones. So I didn't know where to turn. And the place to turn was our friend Mike Clay at ESPN. He has statistical projections. So I used his statistical projections for the rest of these overrunners. And we will start with AJ Brown. AJ Brown receptions. Yes. 91.5. So this one was also like easy, easy over for me. Really? He had 97 last year. He had 150. He had 150.

58 the year before he had 1.40, like, unless my, or my, or no, I was looking at targets on this one. Yeah, yeah, yeah, 91.5, sorry. I still, I still feel good about the over here. He's done this once in his career. That was 2023. He had 106 receptions. Yeah. Other than that, you know, in that great 2022 season, he had 88 receptions.

Right. He, so I guess this, this really depends more on how he's used. If he's using the short and intermediate game a little bit more, and that's what you saw in 2023 when he had all those receptions like 2023 he had 13.7 yards per reception that was the lowest of his career but he's someone you know you look at it is his rookie year with tennessee when he had 52 catches for a thousand plus yards right he had 20 yards reception that that year you know he had 17 yards reception in 2022 so this really is a bet on usage more than anything else i went with a slight under here interesting so i took the over i still feel good about the over uh

even though I was just reading the target. I still feel good about the over. Mainly, again, I just feel like they're going to be throwing the ball more. And he came just shy of this last year. Or he did the year before. To me, I like AJ at the over here. So now let's go to Devante Smith on this too, because this was an interesting one, 88.5.

And for context here, last year, Devante had 68 catches. But the year before that, he had 81 catches, right? So only once in his career, 2022, when he had 95 catches. had he exceeded 88.5. So last year, leading into the season, you and I both felt that it was going to be a type of season where Devante has more catches, AJ has more yards and touchdowns, right?

And so I don't know that I'm quite in that same boat, but I still like the, I still like the fact that they're probably going to be, you know, throwing the ball more this year. That said, I think that what we've seen with Devante is like Devante developing into more of like that big play, mentioned that dagger play in the Super Bowl, you know, that deep post route. I actually took the under here on Devante Smith receptions at 88 and a half.

You know, again, you can't take the under here. And Mike, by the way, his projections are outstanding. Yes, I agree. Stand the test of time. You look back at his projections, they are outstanding year after year. That said, I did take the, I did like the under here for Devante at 88 and a half. Yeah, I went slight under here as well, although I do think he's going to be a high volume receiver. So I guess I'm being hypocritical there, but this is a large number when you look in the context of his career.

Now, staying on the topic of receptions, Sequin Barclay. Yeah. This one I found a little high on Mike's 48.5. So you know which way I'm leaning. Where are you leading? Over or under. Heavy under. Yeah.

Yeah. He was at 33 last year. And I just, I don't see that. I don't see him getting 15, 16 more catches this year. So he had 57. He hit it in 2022. but I just say it's just different offense, different situation. For me, this one would be an under.

Yeah, it would surprise me if in a year when, like, even if the Eagles aren't explicitly saying this, they know they need them manage taking one's touches. They're like, you know what, we're just going to pass the ball to you more, like 15, 20 more times. That would surprise me. So I thought, you know, last year he was at 33. I still think between that 30 and 40 range.

I think 48.5 is high. Find a way to manufacture touches for Dallas Goddard, find ways to manufacture touches for the receivers. If you want to get the running back screen game going, that's something that Will Shipley should be able to do very, very well. I don't know that Sequin Barkley would necessarily need to be that guy. Yeah, if you're watching at home with a branded Bill's hat,

a Penn State Brandon Bill's hat, you're going to have an interesting opinion on this one here because this number surprised me when I saw it in the stat projections. Jahan Dotson receiving yards 116. I mean, heavy over, right? Heavy over, yeah. Because honestly, the aspect of this is even if, If Devante Smith and or A.J. Brown are not healthy for a full 17 games, all right, like, he should hit this, right?

Jahan Dotson should hit this. He had 216 last year just joining the team the week before the season started. So, yeah, this one was easy. This was an easy over. Now, where do you stand? I don't know if you saw Friday's show. I said, would it be better for the Eagles if Devante Smith has a career season or Johan Dotson has a career season? And Rich and I were talking about that. And the context there being like, if Jahan Dotson has a huge year and they have these, or I should say relatively huge year, if he is the best year of his career. So if he's almost like Nelson Aguilar was in 2017 and you have three reliable, dependable receivers, it changes the offense.

Yeah. But if Devante takes this up a step and Devonte is at, you know, 13, 1400 yards and he shows that he's a bona fide number one receiver, it changed. It might, you know, that has its effects too. which one's better for the offense. Can I ask you this, though? Does it come at the expense of somebody else not having the career? Like, is it like, oh, like, Johan Dotson has a career year,

but Devante Smith only has 400 yards receiving? No, so that's a good question. No, so it's probably like you're getting the average production from AJ and Devante, but then you have this big uptick from Jahan or you have the average production from AJ and Jahan or you have this big uptick from Devonte. I'd rather have the uptick from Devante personally. Just because I think, number one, you've already paid him his money. He's a guy that you view as a centerpiece.

moving forward. I think it's more important for you to hit there than, yeah, you trade it for Jahan Dotson, but at the end of the day, like, it's a third round pick that you got a fifth round pick back for. Like, it's not a huge, huge investment. If he hits, great, that maybe, like, you're going to re-sign him and move on, it gives you more faith to move on from Devante or AJ in a couple of years. And then you can plug him in, or maybe you get a comp pick back for him if you let him leave. But I think it's better to have Devante be able to hit. Are you Davis-Cubvey 615 because Davis Covey 615 left a similar comment

on the YouTube page because I read all the comments. I thank him for watching and it's debates like that which make this fun. I'm not Davis Coving. I know. If you agree or disagree, comment when you watch the show, leave it in the chat now.

Let's get some more super chats going as well. So now let's roll over to hold on. I got to pull the sheet up here. Let's roll over to the defense. These were fun. Nolan Smith sacks 7.5. This was a tough one, man. This was honestly, like on the list,

this was the one that I most waffled back and forth on, where it was like, oh, like I could see it going either way. I am a big Nolan Smith guy, as we discussed on the show a couple weeks ago. I was huge on his pre-draft projection. I was very optimistic still coming in the last year about what he could be and said, like, don't give up on him yet. I took the over. He had six and a half last year.

Am I expecting that he's going to have double-digit sacks? I don't know if that's necessarily like on the horizon this year. But look, this is a team that you're going to get some of that pass rush production back from somewhere. Right. Like you lose Milton Williams. You lose Josh sweat. Somebody's going to step up and be able to get to the quarterback.

I think Nolan Smith will have a heavy hand in that. Yeah. Nolan Smith had four sacks in the playoffs last year. He finished the season. with three sacks in his last five games, with four sacks in his last six games. So if you just factor in, you know,

he had, he had eight sacks during a like a nine game stretch there. He has the ability to get hot. He's their top edge rusher going into the season. I'm going with the over here. Maybe that's a little too optimistic. and if it's if it's you know it could be that the sack numbers are coming from other players and we'll get into that but yeah i got to think someone on on the edge is going to push toward

double digits and i'm going with no one smith as the guy i'm expecting to do it on the topic of no one smith brinnett's here in studio um shout out to brena awesome job on the exciting mike's no one smith show uh i would i listened to it on audio then i watched it back on video and i've seen the clips. No one Smith talks about his goals for the 2025 season. You can check that out on, well, wherever you get your shows and on our YouTube channel as well. No question. So now let's stay with the edge rushers. Jellix Hunt Sacks 4.5 for Jalox Hunt. I wrote down over. I don't feel like super strong about it. Yeah. You know, he had one and a half last year. Obviously, you expect that he's going to have more than that. The Eagles hope that he has more than that.

it feels like he's probably coming into the season as the favorite to be the starter opposite Nolan Smith. I do think it's a pretty big projection still. You know, just considering the developmental curve, I think in an ideal world, he's your third guy and there's somebody else that's starting ahead of him. I think that's the ideal world for Jalick's Hunt still at this point in his development. But if he's the starter, then I feel like good on the four and a half. This is just a bet on if you think that he's going to be a starter or not. Where did you land? I went with the under. I actually wrote over, but I'm, I know. I went back and forth there, man.

Yeah, it's just, I just need to see the proof of concept a little bit more here. I know the playing time is going to be there. I'm bullish on the player and the upside, but I'm going with a slight under here. Yeah, I honestly was very close to doing what you did. Because I had overwritten down, it was like, oh, like, oh, I'm just going to go under. Yeah, it's just, to me, like, we'll get into a couple of the other ones. I think that those again, the sacks are going to come from somewhere

or all they're going to come from Jalick's hunt. Like I, to me, one element of the Nolan Smith discussion I think is interesting is that he is the guy in that room now. And I think there is something to be said for, you know, hey, like you're going in like a year ago, his expectations were super, super low compared to where they were or where they are now.

Some guys take on that added responsibility and it motivates them further. My sense is that is Nolan. Like Nolan is one of those type of guys, but some guys don't, don't handle that well. And so I think that is certainly something to follow here in the coming weeks and months. And this, this, this, this, this thunder is playing a part in the show. Yes, it's going to be fun right home. Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm curious to see with Joe Exxon on third downs in particular. Are you expecting him to be a heavy third down

players? I think so. I think that's when you're really, to me, like, it would be a disappointment if he's not a part of that package, you know, even if he's not, the quote-unquote starter, if Aziz Osceo Jlar is the starter or whoever is the starter, it would be a, surprise and a disappointment for me if Jail Exxon's not out there on pass downs. I've just wondered if at some point they're going to mix Jihad Campbell more on the edge on those passing downs. And so then let's go with Jalen Carter. This is an interesting one.

Jalen Carter sacks 5.5 over or under. He had four and a half last year. He had six as a rookie in 2023. I felt most comfortable on this one of the three defensive ones we've talked about and the five that we're going to do, this is the over that I was like, yes, I feel very strong. Like he's going to surpass that five and a half mark. I think when you look at Jalen Carter,

and again, going back to last year, we had super high expectations. Like this is a guy that we think has defensive player of the year type of upside. Like he has that kind of talent. And while he was really, really good, he was not that tier of player for the first half of the season. First two-thirds, he was really good.

He was awesome. Not that kind of like game record, consistent week after week, like that kind of guy. I think that he played like that guy down the stretch. Even though he didn't have the huge numbers in the Super Bowl, he was the best player up front for them in the Super Bowl. So when I look at Jalen Carter, yeah, I anticipate that he's going to surpass five and a half this year. Yeah, I'm going over here too.

I think this is, you know, he had six sacks as a rookie, like you said. He got double-teamed a lot last year. I know sacks can be fickle for defensive tackles, but this is the jail and Carter breakout year. You might have said the breakout already happened. I think this is the statistical breakout year. I think this is Fletcher Cox's, you know, this is when Fletcher Cox announced himself as like an elite defensive tackle.

I'm expecting that from J.1 Carter. I'm buying my J.1 and Carter stock, and that includes over five and a half sacks. It was the Super Bowl era draft, the Super Bowl team draft from a couple weeks ago. He said like, yeah, like 2017 Fletcher Cox, It was a great player. 2018 Fletcher Cox was like, I feel like you might see that kind of thing with Jaylon Carter.

Good point. Good point. This is our first show, by the way, since the NFL draft, since the full team draft. People love the friend team. So do I. I agree with them. How did Davis Covey feel about that one? I don't know if Davis Covey left a comment on that one.

Probably because Johan Dodson wasn't picked. So now let's look at Quinion Mitchell. Another guest of the exciting mics. Quinyon Mitchell 2.5 over or under. You know, like, see, these are tough because interception, like, everyone talks about defense being very volatile year to year, right, in terms of like the quality of defense. And especially when it comes to coverage, you know,

I mentioned a couple weeks ago last time you and I did a show together. This is the time of year when I'm doing a lot of my like big picture, philosophical, like things that matter to me most in every position as I'm watching college players in preparation for the upcoming season. And everybody just, I think, like, talks about defensive coverage as, again, it's very volatile. Like season of season, it changes. James Radbury is an all pro in one year and then he's, you know, on the bench and you're in the next year. That's obviously a very extreme example.

I do think that coverage production is very volatile. Last year, Quinion Mitchell had zero interceptions in the regular season. Is he going to have three this year? Not playing opposite Darius Lay. You would say like, all right, the teams are going to view him. Quinyon as the number one corner would you stay away from his side and go more towards Kili Ringo

whoever the starter is, Adori Jackson on the opposite side. Logic would point you to that. I'm going to take the under. Yeah. I don't think that it, I don't think that this piece, I love Quinyon.

Sure. I think Quinyon's a great player. But to say he's going to go from zero to three, I don't necessarily feel super confident in that. But that said, I do think that he's a really good player. Yeah, the joke last year in the locker room was about Quinnian's hands.

or ball skills, however you want to frame it. And like you said, terrific cover corner. There's not much evidence that he's a ball hawking corner. Even you go back to college, he had one terrific game where he had four interceptions. Outside of that, he only had two interceptions the rest of his college career. Yep. So he's not like, you know, C.J. Garner Johnson,

you see the track record of interceptions. You don't necessarily see that with Quignan. Now, he finally got on the board in the postseason. But, and again, interceptions are. volatile. We all recall those Kirk Coleman years and things like that. Wow. Kirk Coleman catching shade of the 57th minute of the podcast.

I'd like Kirk Coleman. But I am not expecting a big interception season from Quignan Mitchell. Yeah, it's tough because again, like a couple tip balls here and there, like, you know, not to have the Jad A. Barron to debate

again, but like Jada Barron had like two interceptions in his first four years of Texas and that had seven and won the Thorpe Award last year because Carson Beck threw him three right into his chest. Like, you know, those kinds of things can happen when you play that position. Speaking of Carson Beck, you should just wait around like two more minutes when there'll be a little bit of a Carson Beck conversation. Just a tease. But how well timed is this show?

Because we are on right now, the final one here at the 258 mark. And that is Cooper DeGene 1.5 interceptions for Cooper the Gene over or under. I'm taking me over on this one. Yeah, taking the over here. I think when you're playing inside, you get a little bit more action in terms of, there's more opportunities for Cooper Dejean to be around the football in this area of the field and this defense. Obviously, look, he had no interceptions during the regular season last year. We all know about the pick six in the Super Bowl.

I do think that he gets two picks this year. So let's go with Cooper de Gene on the over. Yeah, Cooper de Gene is going to be playing more this year. You know, he's healthy going in to the season. unless there's an off-season injury or a microphone injury doing exciting mics. And I just think the way he plays, he's going to be around the ball. I'm expecting Cooper de Gene to go over 1.5 here. What if I made a 2.5?

What's that? What if I made a Quignan's 2.5? Let's go with. Is that one going to scare you away? No, I'm going with four interceptions this year for Cooper the Gene. Maybe a pro bowl visit. Oh, yeah. See that?

And we can discuss that. and maybe quarterbacks in this draft in overtime. So you won't spend a lot of time grinding Cooper the Gene filmed during the summer. And now here you are. And you're a great father, great husband. You go on a family vacation. Your first day back, I got a text this morning. I got a story on the quarterbacks, the draft quarterbacks.

And I'm like, this is why France is the best draft analyst in the business. Right? So look, everyone. Or second best, depending on. Everyone go to all-PHY.com, become a diehard. And you can read it there. But give them a little tease here. What can they expect on that piece on all-PHly.com?

Yeah, I'm hoping to do some similar types of things for different positions around the game. I've done, I think 10 of the biggest name quarterbacks. So it's like, all right, like, I don't know that there's going to be the 10 that I will call my top 10 quarterbacks by the time we get to November. But these are the 10 quarterbacks that most people have. have in mock drafts and are or kind of grading in that way. So let's just, I'll show you how I stack them. And so I went through all 10. I've gone through the film, a lot of film on all of them. And yeah, it was a fun exercise. I guess I'm hoping to do like top 10 pass catchers between the receivers and tight ends, top 10 offensive line and defensive line and DB. So yeah, look for those

in the coming weeks. I did have this article ready before I went on vacation. So don't think that I was working on it as I was in between nights at the park. I lost a little bit of respect. that one. No, I'm kidding. No, it seems like Madoza from Indiana is the quarterback that you might be lower on relative to consensus. Clubneck would be the, oh, to me, the big one. Yeah, club neck. Some people are like, really high on. I saw one mock draft with him number one. Yeah, that's. And then also, it seems like you might get an invite to the Madding Passing Academy next summer, which seems pretty awesome. Tibado, Louisiana. Yeah. I would accept that one. Yeah. Yeah. I've been reading good clips out of that. So make sure you check that out on all phtly.com. Make sure that you rate, comment, review, subscribe,

leave their comments on Apple Podcasts, on the Spotify episodes, reading them all looking for feedback, and we have a chance to do it better tomorrow. Not with Fran. I will be on tomorrow with either Jamie or Rich. I'll let you know in an early tweet tomorrow morning. But Fran and I will be back on Wednesday. Until then, thank you to Fran.

Thank you to Brenna, of course. Outstanding job and outstanding job this weekend on our Flyers coverage. That's important to mention. Crushed it. The Flyers and the Sixers crew. Drafts, I would say draft seasons are the best times here at PHLY. And if Bo was here, he would agree with that. And he would say, as always, we love you. I'll say, we'll do better tomorrow. Thanks for watching.