PHLY Philadelphia Eagles Podcast - NFL Draft outliers on defense: What to make of Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart?

Episode Date: March 25, 2025

We’re back with a roundup of the NFL Draft prospects on defense who are outliers in comparison to the recent history of productive players in the NFL. Shemar Stewart is an elite athlete, but his lack of production is difficult to believe. What kind of athlete is James Pearce Jr.? Do Mason Graham’s small arms matter? Same question for Will Johnson. And how insane of an athlete is Nick Emmanwori? Fran Duffy discusses it all as the draft approaches ever sooner. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Everybody and welcome to the PHAY Draft Show with Fran Duffy here on a beautiful Tuesday ready to discuss the draft prospect outliers on defense after the wonderful conversation we had last week about the offense. Fran, how you doing looking good and pink? Thank you. Yeah, I'm excited for this one. You know, we went into last week saying, all right, we're going to surprise each other. We're not going to we want the raw motion, the raw reaction to be here on the show. And we talk about it after like, man, like I wish I could have done a little bit more. I would have bounced off.

He'll a little bit better here. So this one, we knew, we know exactly who each other are bringing to the table. And I feel like I'm so much more prepared. I have so much more info and data to share for these prospects. I'm excited for this conversation. I think maybe the biggest outlier in this entire draft, relative to, if just to remind you, if you were joining us for the first time, we're sort of talking about the sample of the elite players in the NFL where they came from.

So guys who made a first team all pro or a first team or like an initial. Pro Bowl roster over the past 12 years or so what were their production stats in college like where did they get drafted? What kind of athletic testing did they have and relative to that sample? Shamar Stewart stands out like nobody else in this class and so let's talk about the good first and we're talking of course about the pass pressure from Texas A&M a and a 40 inch vertical jump and 131 inch broad jump those are fantastic numbers. The broad jump is the second best of anybody. in this elite sample, and that would be Hassan Reddick at the top,

and the vertical jump is like the third best after Cam Wake and Connor Barwin, Miles Garrett in there as well. So he is explosive as an athlete, but from a production standpoint, three years playing at the highest level, four and a half total sacks for an edge rusher. Never a season with more than one and a half sacks.

One and a half each year. One and a half each year. year. You look at all these guys, the lowest, and it's the player who everybody points to, as, you know, if traits matter overproduction, Daniel Hunter from LSU, of course, when he was coming out. Now, Daniel Hunter only played two years, I believe, and his, he had three sacks in a season. He also had four and a half total, but he at least had three in a season. Chandler Jones had his best year was four and a half sacks. Michael Bennett, who went undrafted. He had three and a half sacks as his season high. That's it. Everybody else is, you know, in a totally different

stratus. So what do you make of Shamar Stewart? How do you rectify, how do you, how do you justify using a first round pick, maybe a top 25 pick most likely on a player with that limited production from a stack standpoint? Yeah, it's very difficult. And so, you know, when I'm looking at, let me take you back to the beginning for me for Shamar Stewart, where, you know, obviously knew about him coming into the season. He was a former five-star recruit, was in a lot of the two early mock drafts and was, you know, was viewed as one of the top defensive players entering this 2024 college football season. When I first studied him back in the fall, I watched a couple games and I thought, yeah, this guy's a day three guy. You know, I was just watching. I see,

you see traits, you see the length, you see the strength, you see the explosiveness, certainly in the open field, his ability to, it's a play and pursuit, some good flashes of his motor, but not a guy that consistently finds the football, not a guy that consistently shows that ability like stack, shed, get off, and get to the ball in the run game. You know, just again, a guy that at the top of the rush doesn't consistently win.

There's some stiffness there. We'll get into all this. But the lack of production certainly stood out. And as I watched him in the fall, I said, all right, well, he's got some time to turn it around. Let's see, you know, what this looks like by the time we get to the end of the year. Obviously, he only finishes with one and a half sacks.

But going through more of the numbers, as the season comes to a close, and you get through All-Star games, you get through Combine. The other thing, it's not just pass rush production because we'll always look at, all right, well, QB hits and the TFLs, and there's other ways for guys to produce.

There's a, there's a stat that's called a run stop, which is basically when a run is an unsuccessful play. So you think of a, if it's less than 50% of the yardage, and correct me from wrong here, it's like less than 50% of the yardage gained from the, so if it's first and 10, and the run goes for three, that's an unsuccessful run.

If it's third and two and the run goes for one, that's an unsuccessful run. So you just kind of understand like, okay, what's a successful run in an unsuccessful run? If a guy makes a tackle and it's an unsuccessful run play for the offense, that's a run stop. That's how PFF describes that. It's a good metric. He had 21 run stops on 575 run defense snaps. So one of the things I'll do, as I'll pull, because PFF will give you all this raw data. It's up to you to decide what you're going to do with it.

So I'll go, all right, all of his run stops, over how many run defense snaps he played. I do this for every single pass rusher where we have the data drafted over the last decade. I've got 204 edge rushers in that sample, drafted the last decade that have been charted by PFF. He would rank 203 out of 204 in run-stop percentage. Yikes.

Right? So we're talking the guy that doesn't get to the quarterback, doesn't finish there, and he's also not making plays against the run. Now, he's stout, he's strong, but again, when it comes to actually making plays on the ball, He's lacking. And so when you are watching him on film, do you see excuses for that?

Is there a schematic reason for that? Are teams running away from him and designing their offense to not worry about him, or to try to take him out? Yeah, there are certainly some things that you can do to kind of explain some of this away. So I've got, let's get it. Yeah. I got a lot of notes here. So, all right.

I think he, yeah, to me he is the most interesting puzzle to solve. Yes, he's the guy you were really going to kind of hammer out. The big thing, too, really quickly, he ran a 459 at 267 pounds. He was listed to it. He played north of 280, and it was like, oh, he's going to be this freak athlete. 459 in the 40-yard dash at 267. That's a good number. We were talking about like the speed score.

That's 120.3 speed score. That's a good number, but that's like 80th, 85th percentile. That's not like, oh, my God. Right. Like if you're going to excuse the lack of production, you want this guy to be like knowing who's ever played. before. Yeah.

Now, the jumps, as you mentioned, those were really did not do shuttles. We're going to get to that in a little bit. Now, the other thing that I will do, and again, you take all this raw data in, one thing that I will do for all defensive players, I have what's called a production score just in my, this is just in my sheet. Just give me a sample of an example of, all right, what does a guy do to get to the football? For defensive lineman, I look at tackles, TFLs, sacks, hits, and hurries. I kind of adjust them in terms of priority.

so like sacks, a sack is worth more than a tackle, so on and so forth. Similar kind of formula applied for all defensive players. On a per snap basis, he's in the single digit percentile in that sample. 21 guys in the last decade are down there with them. Only three of them went on days one and two in the draft. So typically if a guy doesn't produce at that level, if he's down that low on the production score, usually doesn't go high. Do you have who those guys were? Sure do.

Peyton Turner went in round one. Okay. bust. Chad Thomas. Oh, sorry, sorry. He's still playing. He could turn it around, I guess. He could turn it around.

Chad Thomas went to the Cleveland Browns and ran round three. Didn't work out. That was nicer. And this one, yeah. The other one. And this is actually a very interesting comp. Dio Dingbo. Who's built very similarly,

35 and quarter inch arm, 86 and 3 eighth wingspan. He had eight sacks and 29 starts. He also had low efficiency marks. It took him a couple years coming out of Vanderbilt, went to the Colts. He signed a big deal with the Chicago Bears. I think that's an interesting comp there. But again, let's ask that because that is kind of my question with Shamar Stewart is in this draft.

Yes, right. What if he's just a third down pass rusher inside? Is that worth it? Is that worth it? And is that the best use for him? Can he bulk up a little bit, move him inside? and maybe he makes more of an impact there. So where I view him as having the most impact

is when he is lined up out wide. Kind of like how Peyton Turner has been used, honestly. This is how I viewed Peyton Turner. I've compared him in the past like Marcus Davenport, whose Saints also drafted in the first round. They traded up for him out of UTSA. Line him up out wide and just let him just pin his ears back and go and try and push the pocket that way.

Use that length, use that explosiveness. That's where that can show up best and be most effective. So that's kind of how I have viewed him the best. Now, one of my early comparisons for Shemar Stewart when, you know, going back to when I first studied him, was Zach Harrison. Zach Harrison came out of Ohio State a couple of drafts ago. So I think it was the 2023 NFL draft. Like Shammar Stewart was a five-star recruit at Ohio State, he was billed as a future

first round pick. The film wasn't there. He ended up falling to early day three to the Atlanta Falcons. He played off the edge his first year. And then last summer going into year two, they kicked him inside to the defensive tackle. So that could be a potential path there as well for Stewart. Chase Daniel Planned View says, wow, guys, I was watching my favorite draft show with my good friend Peyton Turner. He just excused himself and I hear him crying real nice.

I'm sorry. I'm sorry, Peyton. Now, here's the, so you asked the question of why. So to me, there are two things with the lack of production with Shamar Stewart. Number one, I don't think he's very good at the top of the rush, just in terms of like winning with his hands, having an overall a pass rush plan. And then that can be corrected. That can be fixed and developed. The other one, I think he's just stiff.

When you talk about like the lower body flexibility, you know, in his knees and his ankles, he struggles to turn. Really good straight line. Which goes to the jumps. That's that straight line explosiveness. But struggles when he has to turn.

So let's go into it. So I mentioned that 21 player sample, the guys that did not produce at a very high level. Actually, no, here go. Let me do this way. All right. So top of the rush, we'll start there. Pass rush win rate.

That's like kind of the way you kind of look at that. All right, who are the guys that are past rush win rate? Anyone under 12.5% in their final season, that's like single digit percentile. So we're talking like, all right, this guy just does not win at the top of the rush. Out of that 21 player sample, only one of them went in the first round. It was a former number one overall pick in Trayvon Walker. Just one guy went on day two. That's former Eagle Deshawn Hall coming out of Texas A&M.

So 19 of the, I know, great pull. 19 of those guys went on day three. So again, if you are not winning the top of rush, you typically don't go early in the draft. So again, we're also talking like these small samples of guys that even get considered to go this high. That's what makes Shamar Stewart so unique. Now, the guys that all hit that were single digit pass rush

win rate percentile players, Trayvon Walker, Josh Sweat, Charles Omenahu, DJ Wanham, Dorrance Armstrong. Now, a bunch of those guys, again, were day three picks. What was very interesting, I said, I looked at that sample. What are some of the similarities between those guys? They were all 34 plus inch arms.

They were all four out of the five were in the 90th percentile in wingspan. Shamar Stewart checks those boxes. When you look at the rest of the single digit sample, only Miles Cole, who was a late round pick last year, also hit that. All the other guys busted out, like did not work out, and they didn't have that length.

So it's like, okay, like if you have that length, that gives you some hope about what that could be. So I thought that that was a really interesting thing. To say he, 34 and 1 8th are his arms. He's got a big wingspan, 6,5, 267. So he does check that box. No question. Now, we get to the stiffness.

And this is the thing where it's like, all right, like, this is, he's got the pro day on Thursday. So we're recording this on Tuesday. Pro day is on Thursday. We'll see if he does shuttles. He did not do them in Indianapolis. He did get hurt midway through the workout. So he might have done them.

I don't know if he chose, you know, if he would have chosen to do them or not. Weight adjusted three cone. So I talked about this last week, how I look at some, you know, There's the speed score, right? Where it's like, basically it's accounts for your weight when it comes to all these times. You just take that same idea and just apply it to the three cone. You apply it to the short shuttle. I do that with the 10-yard split, all that stuff.

And it just gives you a weight-adjusted idea of how this guy performs. When you're talking three-con, that's the lateral agility test. Trayvon Walker was a 90th percentile, weight-adjusted three-con score. Josh Swett was 80th percentile. DJ Wanham, Darns, Armstrong, Omenahoo. Those of the, that was the sample of the players that we talked about earlier, the hit, that didn't have the high win range, they were all 50th percent.

So they were all at least 50th percentile. Same thing with the short shuttle. All those guys were at least 50th percentile. So if Shamar Stewart does the shuttles, kind of need them to like show that he's going to be in that range. The other one, and this is where I think that the stiffness really shows up with Shamar Stewart. He has a mistackle rate of 27 percent on his career.

That's extremely, extremely high number. Josh Swett, he was the best from that, that small sample. of guys that hit at 8%. Trayvon Walker was the worst at 17%. Again, he's 10 percentage points past that. So, um, only two, out of 203 pass rushers graded in that, in the last 10 years, only two of them

had a lower number. Only, there was only a couple of the guys that were in the single digit percentile was Jared verse and Laiatulatu. Both those guys had production through the roofs. They were always at the ball. And so they, you know, they, they, they missed on some plays. But, uh, again, always finished on the ball. So, yeah, just the, the picture that

paints statistically that he doesn't get to the ball and when he does, he misses a lot of tackles. That's ideal. It's not ideal. It's, so that's what when I'm looking at Shamar Stewart, it is just, it is a very tight needle to thread if he's going to hit.

And so if you're a team. Yeah. What do you need? Like, why would you, why would you make that bet? What would be the reasons for doing it? How would you sell yourself on it? Is it a player development thing?

Is it, uh, we believe in the length more than anything else? Is it in this draft? There are no surefire bets. And so we might as well bet on the guy who has these traits. Yes. What kind of, yeah.

All of that. Yeah, I think it's all of it. You know, I've, I've asked some scouts about him as a kid. Everyone, everyone says, yeah, like, he's not a bad kid. Like, hard worker, you know, he checks the boxes there. You know, it was not, people, I think people will excuse away, like, the environment in Texas A&M. It was a new staff this past year, Mike Elko coming in as the new head coach. I think everybody likes Mike Elko, but it was a crazy environment, let's say,

under the previous coaching staff. You know, there was a lot of, a lot of, a lot of, personalities on that coaching staff. And it was just, it was a little crazy in his first two years in college. And so you can explain, like Walter Nolan. Walter Nolan was at Texas A&M didn't put up huge numbers there either. And then he goes to Ole Miss and he blows up. So I think when you look at it, there are ways that you can explain things away.

That said, you know, some of these things, that's the thing. You always have to, it can't just be by the numbers. You have to go back to the film. You know, Josh Sweat, we talked about this with Josh Swet when he was coming out was all, like, he didn't have the, the efficiency metrics weren't always. there. The numbers weren't always there. And it's like, well, look, he was always, he was asked to play a lot close to the tackle, close to the formation. Same with Trayvon Walker and that Georgia scheme. That wasn't really the case for, uh, with Shamar Stewart. He had a lot of plays where he was

lined up outside. So it's, it's going to be tough. It's a lot of interesting discussions around this player, certainly leading up to draft weekend. And so, bottom line for you is most likely you would let someone else take it. I'm letting somebody else take that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think so. Okay. Good conversation. Let's talk about the rest of the edge of the edge of the rushers who pop a little bit. We have someone asking about Jordan Burch. He's on your list. Why is Jordan Burch someone who is an outlier? Jordan Burch. So from Oregon. Yes, from Oregon, transfer from South Carolina. This is the guy that was on Bruce Feldman's freak list for the last couple of years, physically gifted

rusher. Again, like production score below average, but for my personal production score, but he still, I mean, he had like eight or nine sacks this year. So we're not talking. Yeah, yeah. So not something that, you know, you're like, oh, man, this guy never gets to the quarterback. The big thing that makes them an outlier for me. So one of the things I've tried to do over the last couple of years, obviously we get all this data during the NFL season from all over the place, right? You know, there's next gen, there's PFF, there's true media, there's everything. And there's, so I try and cherry pick certain stats that are, all right, if we use these during the NFL calendar, we're using during the season, how much of that can I apply to draft evals?

And the one that started picking up some steam over the course of the last few years when it comes to pass rushers, how often are guys able to. to create pressure on the quarterback in under two and a half seconds. How are they able to quickly win? So I'm like, all right, am I able to do that? Well, PFF, they do have that ability to say, like, all right, the time to pressure for all of these guys. And so with Jordan Birch, I'm able to see, like, all right,

what's the percentage of pressures that happen in under two and a half seconds? For Jordan Birch, it's just 58.4% of his pressures. That is an extremely low number that's in the single digit percentile. That makes him an outlier. Anything 59% or below is in that. range. So the guys that have gone day one or day two with numbers in that area, it's not good company. I'm just going to roll through the list real quick. Germain Johnson, who's probably the best player on this list, a first round pick for the Jets, Tyos Bowser, didn't, never hit his ceiling

for Baltimore, Tyree Wilson, DJ Johnson from Carolina, Camoco Terray out of Rutgers, goes to the Indianapolis Colts, Peyton Turner again, LJ Collier, and then Felix Anudike Uzama from the Kansas City Chiefs. It's not a great list there. Of the day three guys, A bunch of them are on there, and only three of them hit. Your boy Anthony Nelson, DJ Wanham, who took some time, but eventually hit, and then Dorrance Armstrong. So we've hit on a couple of these names already. Now, Birch is bigger than most of these guys.

His production is middle of the road. So to me, it's all about expectation. You mentioned earlier about the role for Shmar Stewart. Is he better kind of kicking inside? I think that might be Birch's best thing. It's like, all right, like, hey, third down, you know, I don't think he's a full-time player, but on third down, let's kick him inside and we just let him. He's part of our rush packages, let him go.

that's his floor and you hope that he can become something more than that. Okay. Let's talk about Mike Green from Marshall. And you tell me whether you think arm length and hand size matters for an edge rusher because Mike Green, 32-inch arms, that is bigger than only Melvin Ingram in that sample. I mean, it's pretty far towards the bottom. And then eight and a half inch hands, there is nobody who has had hands that small. Does that matter for an ed rusher?

Um, the way, I mean, I'll say the way I said it last week. I mean, you probably don't want both, but. Yeah, you probably don't want both. I'll always say it's like the measurement stuff isn't a problem unless it's a problem. I do think with Mike Green that does show up at times. And so really quickly just looking at the arm length measurements, the 34, so the 10th percentile mark amongst all edge rushers draft in the last 10 years is 32 and 3 eighths. So Mike Green fell below that. Obviously, it hit in a 32 inch.

there are 34 guys that have hit at 32, 3 eighths. It's a 34 player sample. Only six of them have turned into impactful rushers. Marcus Golden, Nick Herbig, Carl Lawson, Trey Hendrickson, Aidan Hutchinson, and then Tully Toey-Tooey-Pelot. So that's like your group. A couple of round one busts in there. Derek Barnett didn't hit his ceiling.

Charles Harris didn't hit his ceiling. Caleb on Chase on a bunch of day three picks. So that just goes to show, like typically, if you got really short arms, you typically fall into day three. Mike Green probably not going to fall into that range. So if you just look at that range at that small sample, the guys that did hit, and I compare Mike Green to that group,

four out of the five were 90th plus percentile on pass rush win rate. Four out of the five, all but two, below two for both these swings, were 80th percentile in pressure rate. Hendrickson actually had the highest pressure rate of all pass rushers drafted in the last decade

when he was in college. And when you look at the three bus, only one of the three cleared those threshold. So I'm like, all right, let's see how this applies to Mike Green. Mike Green, his past rush win rate was in the 80th percentile, so just short of that threshold.

But not a bad number, yep. Pressure rate was below 50th percentile. Didn't hit. So here's my thing with Mike Green. And I said, when I studied him back in the fall for the first time, before we got like the official measurements at the senior ball and at the combine,

I was worried that at his size, he was not like the physically imposing athlete or like power player that would be needed to kind of like overwhelm 6 3251 yeah and with that length I was like all right like what and honestly

I had the same question about Ezraku at Boston College Azaraku's got really long arms for a guy that for the guy that size so that length turned that that's not necessarily an issue for him with Mike Green I do think that that can be an issue for him at times

okay does that show up for we're talking about day three prospects also the short arms Ashton Jalot and Jack Sawyer Yeah that does show up for those guys Yeah I think so I think with Jalati Oh Jolati yeah Jolati that's great

I love it delicious I will say He's one of my favorite like day three Rushers okay he he like knows where his bread is buttered He's like he's a guy when you watch him You're like this guy knows that he's got short arms And he plays like he knows how to navigate around that I don't think he's got some like great ceiling But I think he's gonna play in the league for a long time

He can't reach the ceiling Well, yeah, I mean, yeah, but look, he's got all that custard on top of it. No, but I think when you're looking at Jolati, like I think that that, that, he's going to fall to day three most likely because he just doesn't look the part. You know, when you talk about the lack of length, he's not a plus the plus athlete, but this is a guy who knows how to rush. He plays extremely hard. So to me, like he's one where he will be able to get past that with Mike Green. I have some questions there. And then that that's obviously not even taking no account like the off-field stuff.

that you'll learn about with green. I want to ask you about James Pierce Jr. Yep. From Tennessee, runs a 4-4-7, which is blazing. And in the sample of elite players, that's the third best 40 time,

but only a 31-inch vertical jump, which is towards the very bottom of that sample. So what kind of athlete are we talking about here? So real quickly, the speed score with James Pierce Jr., a bunch of guys hit this mark, right? So there was a really high, numbers, he's a 90th plus percentile.

Most of the guys that hit it, hit, like Miles Garrett, Odafe Owe, Trayvon Walker, really the only guy that went round one that like where he was that fast, that explosive at that size, that doesn't, is Lucas Van Ness, who has been a disappointment so far for Green Bay.

When you get into day two, I mean, he's no Peyton Turner, but. Right. Well, yeah, who is though? When you get to day two, it's more like a 50-50 proposition there. But eight, there were eight guys that went on day two that had a speed score that that high and then when you get to day three there were six players

that had a speed score that high all of them missed. So it's basically like, okay, if you are this explosive and you have round one tools, typically you hit. And if you fall to day two, it's like a 50-50 proposition,

day three, you're just not a good football player at the end of the day. You're really, really explosive. Now, of all of those guys that I just, I rolled out 24, there's 24 players in that sample. Only one of them was below the 20th percentile in the jumps.

Yeah. And it was, so I was that's Jane Pierce Jr. The only other guy that did that match that was Robert Beal who was a day three pick out of Georgia back in 2023. So it is unique that you would have a guy That fast and 40 and it

Has Tennessee had its pro day yet? I believe so, yes. Now did he read? Now his bra jump was in the middle like probably a little bit below average. But the vert really bad. Yes.

I'm not saying, of this, but this is not a James Pierce Jr. Yeah. Statement. Now, there are, because there are things that, you know, people, like, whispers about James Pierce Jr., oh, like the off field is he the right kind of guy, that kind of thing.

All I'm going to say is that, um, as I've done this more and more, one thing that does pop up and it can be a marker at times is guys that overperform from a testing standpoint, that can be like a marker of a guy that's like, high character, work ethic. Like, because you, you can be like, They're putting in the work to...

You're putting in the work to not cheat the drill, but essentially, like, yeah, they get a better test score, right, to cheat the drill. And then the guys that underperform, that can be a marker for like, oh, like, did he put the work in, you know, that kind of thing.

Some guys just have a bad day. You know, they didn't feel good or whatever. Like, they just have a bad day. So I'm not saying that's the case, but that is something that I always kind of keep in the back of my mind as well. And I can't find the results from the Tennessee Pro Day.

Yeah. Usually I will get that stuff as we get in the next couple of weeks. Because I rather, there were times where I used to like, try and chart that every day. You know, put it,

yeah, one fell swoop. Yeah, but there is a, there's like, I think there's a, like there's a, like there's a hole in the market there.

Like, no, it used to be like Gil Brandt. He's like, oh, you like every day, like Gil Brandt would have that running dowry on NFL.com.

But yeah, no one's really doing that now in terms of like pro day results. Uh, okay, last one that I want to talk about on the edge is Landon Jackson, who you are,

I think higher on than consensus. I think so, yeah. He had, he had some great jumping results, uh, know, like does, does that explosiveness show up on film for a guy who had good production, but not great production?

Yeah, I think it does to a certain extent. He is a player. And actually, as I was going through the usage numbers with Landon Jackson, I actually think that he is a very similar profile to Josh Sweat because of how often he was asked to play over the tackle or just inside the tackle, like tight to the formation. That was a big thing with Sweat when he was at Florida State was, oh, yeah, but if you just watched the ones where he's, uh, kind of. cut loose outside the tackle, you know,

he's got that ability to win the edge and get home. That usage affected his efficiency marks when you look at all the win rate stuff and the pressure rate stuff. And I think that's the case with Jackson. All of his pressure rate numbers are bad, like single digit percentile, like third down pressure rate, third down win rate, all that's like a quick pressure rate. All of that is pretty low when you look at Atlanta Jackson.

But the tools are there. There's high character. Everyone kind of raves about him as a kid. So it's a, that's an interesting one too. All right, let's move on to the defensive tackles. Okay. We've had the short arm conversation, but I think we have to have it with respect to Mason Graham at the top of the draft.

You're talking about top five, top 10 pick. 32 inch arms. Jarrell Casey, Gino Atkins are the low bars there. They also had 32 inch arms, but that's the very bottom in this draft, all of that stuff. Does that show up on tape to you? Is this an orange flag, a light red flag? It does show up on film at times. There were just going back through and just preparing for the show.

There were just kind of reading through it. And you can go if you're a diehard and you get access to the draft database. You can see my notes there on Mason Graham. There are times where I worry about the lack of length in the run game. 32 inch arms just clears the 10th percentile for me, which 31 and 7 eighths is the 10th percentile mark for all defensive tackles, interior alignment drafted in the last decade. So compared to all defensive tackles drafted in the last 10 years,

he would be like it's probably like 11th to 12th percentile. Now there have been 34 defensive tackles drafted in the last decade with 32 inches and below. Here are the six guys that hit big. Javon Hargrave, Ed Oliver, Milton Williams, Kobe Turner, Braden Fisk, Colagia Canty. Those were the six. There were some other guys that hit at like a lower level. They were like role players, but they were more like nose tackle types.

We're not talking about that with Mason Graham. We want him to be that Ed Oliver, you know, that disruptive interior presence. Now, of those six, I have to eliminate Hargrave. because I didn't have all, since it came from South Carolina State, there's not all the full metrics on him from that sample. So you've got five guys there in that sample that had those short arms, had those short arms, and we're able to hit once they reached the NFL.

All five of them were in the 80th percentile in my production score. Three of them were 90th percentiles. These are guys that were always around the football. Graham hits that. All five of them cleared 50th percentile and pressure rate. Milton and Colagicancy were 90th percentile. Graham hit 50th, clears that threshold. All five of them cleared 50th percentile in run-stop percentage.

And Oliver, Peyton Turner were both 80th percentile plus. Graham hit 90th percentile. So he's like, he's hitting all the marks that all these other players hit. He didn't test. They had the pro-day last Friday, chose not to test. All those other guys, though, were like 90th percentile speed score, 90th percentile three cone weight adjusted, 90th percentile short-shuttle adjusted. All those guys were like freak athletes that were always around the ball.

So you're a little worried. Grandin test. Why not test? Come on. Well, I mean, he's going to, it's not going to affect his draft stuff. That's the thing. It's like, you can only hurt him. Yeah.

So I get why you wouldn't if you are him. Now, when I'm watching him on film, I see a guy that's a good athlete. I see a guy that went back. Again, reread the notes this morning just to just to confirm. But this is a guy that can win with his first step. You see explosive movements. He's sudden. He's got good change of direction.

He's never on the ground. Big time wrestler in high school. So like all the athletic traits are there on film. It's just you've got to get over the lack of length. But I think that. that he clears enough of the thresholds that I'm okay. Okay. That was a fun one.

Just go back in this draft. Compare. In this draft, yes, exactly. A couple nose tackle prospects. Yep. Guys, so you wouldn't expect to have, you know, great sack production, but let's just check the box on them as well. Alfred Collins, Cam Jackson.

Yep. Both of them very low on sack production. Just two for Alfred Collins for his best in the season. One and a half for Cam Jackson. The low for all of these defensive tackles is two. Both of them also, red flag for their jumps. Cam Jackson, especially 24 and a half inch vertical jump,

93 inches on the broad. That's way below the standard that we're looking for here. Yeah. But maybe you're not expecting a pro bowler here, so you're just, I don't want to speak for you. Well, so the big thing is, you know, Alfred Collins, a 96 inch broad jump, a 26 inch vertical. They are single digit percentile jumps.

Those are bad numbers. But at 332 pounds, weight adjusted, that's actually 50th percent. So I'm like, okay, I'm not super, super worried there. Jackson was just below 50th percentile, below average number, but still not terrible. And their production scores, in terms of person that basis, were like 40th percentile. So it's not like huge red flag. So I'm actually, I'm okay there.

Circling back on the arms, does it show up for Tileak Williams and Jamari Caldwell, who both also have 32 inch arms? No, I actually think both guys, the lack of length didn't necessarily ding them too much on film. Two more for defensive tackles. Darius Alexander? Yeah, this is a tough one. So what's the big one there? I know, I know.

It's going to be 25 years old. I'm going to hurt you more when we go through this. The defensive tackles, there have only been three of the 33 who entered the league at 24. Is that draft day or is that like? That's September 1. Got it, got it. And that's Kwan Short, Henry Melton and Damon Harrison. Damon Harrison was undrafted.

Everybody else, 23 or under. There hasn't been anybody at 25. I know that the landscape of college football has changed, but also playing that long and four as a sack season high, I'm a little skeptical. So, but good, real quick, 80th percentile length, 34 inches, 80th percentile RAS score, 9.2, that's the one thing that's interesting,

that I think gets lost in the RAS stuff, the relative athletic score, Kentley Platt, Mathbaum on Twitter, shout out to him, sort of doing a great job with this. but they always he'll always say like all right if it's over a nine that's an elite athlete but you have to remember that that's a sample everyone that's tested not like like that might be like yeah over a nine might be an athlete but when you're comparing them now to the sample size of who actually gets drafted that's 80th percentile that's not like oh man that guy's like a freak show athlete

in that way all of his efficiency numbers this year win rate pressure rate quick pressure rate third down numbers all that stuff just over 50th percentile production score over the course of his career under 50th percentile he's never had more than four sacks in the season he was second team all mac this year he was third team all mac last year production score at Toledo I mean I'm not

I'm not trying to downplay Toledo but Sean Peyton has this thing that he said Bill Parcells he said like they would never because when he was in New Orleans they would draft small school guys yeah but if you're watching a small school guy you better walk on water that was like a Bill Parcell's thing yeah I don't think that you necessarily get that with Alexander. Now he went to the senior ball and he looked good. He was good. He was good down there.

But the profile is a little bit worrisome. I've got 90 guys that were under 50th percentile in the production score. Okay. So, you know, 184 players, 181 players drafted at defensive tackling the last decade. So you cut that in half or the bottom at the bottom half. Only two of those guys turned into blue players. Like what I would say like top shelf players. So that's why like I've, I've very much value guys that are around the ball. And that's what worries me about Schmar Stewart. Who are the two? Do you have it?

Yeah. Duran Payne and Lee McNeil. Okay. The rest of them, you know, look, some of those guys are. What did Tom Donahoe know? Well, look, it was a good evaluation. But that's the thing. So when you're looking at the rest of it's not, some of them turned into like fine role players.

Like, you know, but again, they were more of like your, your nose tackle types. Like, right? Like, if you're drafting Darius Alexander, I think you're expecting him. He's going to be like a penetrating three technique. He's going to be constantly around the ball. I don't know that that's a favorable profile. Brandon in the chat says,

man, who does Fran want? He's talking me out of everybody. But we are talking about the guys with these flags. With the outliers, correct. Maybe next week that'll be a fun conceit for the show. Who are the guys who you're willing to bang the table for?

Yeah, we'll do that next week. Not going to do it right now. See, this is why mailbags are good because you get that feedback. That's not a mailbag. That's a live comment. That's entirely different.

But if we didn't have that. the live comments. I'm very pro live comments. I've never been anti-comments. Last thing, not on the list, but Dion Walker. I know,

Zach is a fan. I mean, six, seven and a half, 331, he did have a seven and a half sack season two years ago. Why are you not so high on Dion Walker?

The film is just very underwhelming. He is an extremely up and down player that I was very intrigued by coming into the season because I was expecting, all right, like he had the big production spike in 2023. what is he going to do as an encore there?

And he was just very up and down. For a guy that is that big, he gets moved off the ball so often. His pad level is terrible. So he stands right off. And guys get under him and just, I mean, just like, eject him from his spot. We've got to see him going up against Kendall Lampkin.

I mean, Lampkin would eat his lunch. I haven't looked at Lampkin had his pro day yesterday. Oh, really? Yeah, I haven't looked at the numbers yet, though. Let's see that for a treat tonight. Yes. All right, let's go to linebacker. Okay.

And to me, Linebacker is difficult. This is very hard. My operating procedure usually at linebacker is that I care about testing the least here. Yeah, I think that's probably right. Because to me, this is so much about just what do you see, how quick do you move?

It doesn't matter to me if you're, you know, three-tenths of a second slower than another guy. If you're reading the play and you know what's going on. And so this stuff matters maybe a little bit less here. But a couple guys to talk about Jack Kaiser, 24 years old. Not the worst thing in the world. There are three of the

35 players in the sample who were 24 years old entering the league. Zach Bond, one of them now. But he's also got short arms and small hands, 30 and 3 eighths inches, nine inch hands. Do you see an athletically limited player

when you watch him on tape? No, actually was surprised by his athleticism. He's deceptively. He didn't test at the combine. No, but the position workout was really good. And, you know, I think you kind of go in and you see the picture, you see the profile, and are like, all right, like, this guy's going to be limited.

He's a better athlete than I think, certainly than what I expected, you know, going in. Now, when you talk about that lack of length, there have just been 11 linebackers drafted in the last decade with arms that length are shorter. Six, maybe seven hit in terms of like what their draft slot was in terms of being like a starter or quality backup. So I don't think that that's like a huge percentage. prohibitive thing. And honestly, they would be the smallest of all the pro bowlers. Yes.

Maybe it's not a pro bowler. And that's the thing. It's like, I'm not expecting him to be like this super high impactful starter. I do think that he can be like a Mike linebacker and be like a starter for a while. Just not a lot of holes in the profile. He actually has the best mistackle rate of any linebacker that drafted in the last. It's a hundred and 79 linebackers charted in the last 10 years.

It sounds like that's a position where I'm intrigued by that. Yeah, 4.6%. That's how that's outrageous. Who are the other? Do you have the other guys who were near the top of that sample? I'll give you a second to think about it. Because in a minute we will talk about, you know, Go Deeks, Chris Paul Jr., actually from Ole Miss, but is on the smaller side, just under 6-1-22, and his arms are somehow even smaller than Jack Kaiser's.

All right, so real quickly, Jordan Glasgow is number one on that list at 4.9. Now, he was like a special teamer who barely played on defense, but Quay Walker is next up on that. Cody Barton has been a solid backup player. Yeah. Michael Walker's backup. Micah Parsons is next.

Leon Jacobs didn't hit. Junior Colson's a rookie from last year. He was hurt with the Chargers. Jayon Brown, Blake Cashman, Leighton Van derrish. So yeah, that's pretty good. Yeah. All right.

Chris Ball Jr. plays like a smaller player? Yeah. So it's, this is a tough one where look, when I look at size in terms of the weight for a linebacker,

That's small, 222, under 225 would put you in that single digit percentile range at linebacker over the last 10 years. 26 players in the last decade out of 237 linebackers drafted. There have been eight guys that I would say like from that 26 that I would say like, all right, this guy hit. So you have Kamu Grouje Hill, Nate Gary, Jeremiah Housouca, Coromoa, Dionne Jones, Matt Milano, Jaylon Smith, J. J.L. Smith, Terrell Bernard, E.J. Speed.

Those guys are like small, undersized players that were able to hit relative. through their draft slot. Production scores were all over the board. This is why linebacker is tough from a measurable standpoint because that's exactly what you said earlier. But production all over the board, Chris Paul was right in the middle of that group.

Or actually, sorry, Chris Paul was actually the most productive of that group. He was in the middle of the board with the mistackle rate. And he was, that was in the middle. The big thing when it comes to the weight is when you are that small, I kind of need you to be like a great athlete.

His relative to that's... Four-six-three. Yeah, his relative... athletic score right now until we get updated pro day numbers was 7.18, which is right down the middle of this group. The guys above him, Camus was an elite athlete when he was coming out of school, J. O.K., Terrell Bernard, E.J. Speed, all those guys turn into good players. But then there were guys below him. Matt Milano was like right there. Dion Jones, Nate Gary, who was a safety. Those guys were below him. So yeah, it's, it's tricky one. The other thing with linebacker that makes it so

tough from an eval standpoint. I just named a bunch of those guys. J.O.K. was like a slot corner at Notre Dame. Nate Gary was actually a safety at Nebraska. Milano was basically a nickel corner at BC. So all these guys in terms of like usage, I mean, this guy played 90, Chris Paul played 90% of his snaps in the box.

Like this guy knows how to play box linebacker. That's got to account for something too. How about Carson Schwessinger? Yeah. So this one is difficult because of what you mentioned earlier. Your LB2. Yeah, he's my LB2. but he is an outlier in terms of experience.

Since this is such a mental position, he's only played 806 snaps on defense. That's an extremely small sample. Right around 1,100, that's the threshold for 10th percentile. So he's played 800. Only four linebackers draft in the last 10 years have played fewer snaps. Is Vandrash one of them?

No, Van derrash played a decent amount. It was Mark Robinson, who didn't have anything coming out of Oklahoma, Channing Tindle at Georgia Jack Sitchie He was there was like major injuries at Wisconsin Then Alex Anzolone And Anzolone is actually interesting

Because they are built very very similarly He actually profiles pretty well to that to him But he would probably test better Than Anzolone He's got an insane production score But that's not a huge huge indicator At that position It's a projection for Sweishinger for sure

But the tape is excellent And we talk about the profile already Like why he was only a one-year starter and all that. But yeah, he's, that's a tough projection. All right. Last one to ask you about, and this is somebody who's on the high end of these scales,

Tyreem Powell. Yeah. From Rutgers, six four and a half and 34 and five eighths inch arms. Everybody's loads like, in theory, you would love long arms at that position, changes the passing lanes,

stuff like that. Is it enough to intrigue you? Definitely. So one thing, obviously I've got a spreadsheet that charts all of these numbers over the last decade, right? And so there's taps for each.

And basically what I do is I'll color code it where it's like, okay, blue is like a blue chip player and green is like a good starter, yellow is a backup, red is a guy that didn't work out in the league. When I sort it by arm length, see a lot of green, a lot of blue with some red and yellow mixed in, but it's a guy, basically guys that stick

have a lot of length. So I think when you look at Tyrene Powell, yes, to answer the question, I do think that that is predictive for guys who stick. Now, with that sample, guys who are, you know, they're typically around the ball that create more impact plays than what Tyrene Powell did over his career. Just not the production numbers just were not great with him.

There are questions about the athleticism. But if you wanted to me like, Zach Cunningham was a guy who popped up on that list. And I was like, okay. But Cunningham was a first round pick coming out of Vanderbilt. Maybe maybe I'd have been a second round pick. But by Tennessee, he's not the athlete that Cunningham was. He's probably closer to the athlete that Cunningham was like late in his career. Not quite in Philadelphia, but, you know, he's a later. career is at Cunningham so that's going to be the concern there with Powell okay let's move on to corner uh it's fun one i mean again we're talking about arm lengths and and this is one where you know rewind it 10 years and you're thinking about chip kelly all he wants his corners with the you know carroll right uh byron maxwell of course he always stands out um it feels like that has changed a little bit in recent vintage i mean you know for instance biron murphy and trent macduffy have both made pro bowl's recently Derek Stingley, very recent draft picks who all had very short arms and had succeeded

in the NFL. Will Johnson, 30 and one eighth inch. Very short. Very short. That is smaller than all of them except for Trent McDuffie. How do you feel about that for him? It's the shortest of any corner over 6-1. That's the thing. So that's the thing is like most of the guys that did have the short arms that have played and turned into, even if they're not pro bowlers, but it turned into like nice, competent players. They are all on the smaller side, you know, the Roger McCluree's of the world. The Trent McDuffie is like, you mentioned. So team by team, you're going to kind of, and this is the same thing with all of these measurable thresholds is, okay, you know, some teams are going to have those prototypes. How hard do

do they stick to those prototypes? How strict are they? And it's going to come down to like, all right, like, what do you project his role to be? If you see that, hey, you know, Roger McCreery or Trent McDuffie, we want to, we're going to play him in the slot. Length may not matter as much. If you're going to play Will Johnson primarily on the same outside, which I think that's what he is, he's an outside corner that might matter more for you. What's interesting is, I feel like because we'll, Johnson was listed six two and because he was listed as a potential top 10 pick you know off over the last 18 months everyone's like oh he's a he's a he's a press man corner he's a great I actually don't think he's a good press corner the the lack of length is certainly an issue

there but the recovery speed has also been brought into question by some that's probably we're not he is not going to run a 40 yard dash before the draft he didn't run this past week apparently he tweaked his hamstring again I actually think from there's similar or they're different kind of players but a similar profile Marshawn ladimore remember Latimore like didn't do anything coming out of Ohio State. Now they're different players. Latimore was like a straight press man corner where you watch him on film. He's got all the traits.

Will Johnson, I want him playing off the ball, let him read everything and jump throws. Like a Rizul Douglas kind of in terms of, I think he's a better player than Rizul was coming out of West Virginia, but that's similar kind of archetype. I think that's what Will Johnson does best. But that scheme, it's going to come down to like, do you have the right scheme and are you okay with a corner with shorter arms? Like, I loved the idea of him going to San Francisco playing for Robert Sala. He comes from that tree.

He, like, you know, they drafted Sauce Gardner, the big long corner. But are they going to have the strict threshold there? That's going to be an interesting conversation. Are you okay with the corner with short arms? I'm okay with it as long as I just understand, like, what the role's going to be. Okay. You want to talk about Chavon Ravelle from East Carolina? I do.

Can I also bring up one other corner? Please. Because this was one that you had actually said, like, maybe we'll bring him up. We've talked about him in the past. Vince asked him out in the, uh, out in the, uh, you were lower on him than most people. Jaday Barron. Yeah, 29 and 5 eighths inch. We're talking sub 30 inch arms.

Egh. So there have been 15 corners with shorter arms draft in the last decade. A bunch of them guys, again, a bunch of these guys have worked out. Condre Diggs, who did have to move to safety. That was more of a speed thing. But, uh, Vante Maddox, Dante Jackson, Michael Carter, uh, Roger McCreary, Marcus Jones. only one of those guys has played primarily outside corner in the NFL.

That was Dante Jackson. Two other, so I'm going through the profile. You asked me a few weeks ago, like, are you more worried about the guys that you're higher on or lower on? And in the moment, I was like, yeah, it's probably the guy. It's definitely the guy's lower on. Because those are, as I'm sitting here,

every time I go past Jada Baron on my sheet, I'm like, I'm like, literally this morning, I was getting my notes ready, and I'm like, I went and I watch every single one of his targets this morning, just like, every single time he was targeted in coverage. I still feel good about my projection on John A. Barron. Which is you have him as like, he's my quarterback.

He's my corner 12 right now. 12. Yeah. I view him as a nickel corner. And I think he's a solid nickel corner. I don't view him as like high end impactful nickel corner. And it's been so tough to just say outside of like feel. Like that's one of the things I love about having the numbers is that you're able to kind of say like, all right, like this is a good example of why.

The Shamar Stewart conversation we had at the top of the. show that's a to me a good example of it with baron when i go through and again i have everything kind of color-coded a lot of a lot of green and a lot of blue in there and i'm like all right like yeah this is good there's only two other numbers that are in a four three nine yeah ran four three nine which was not expected uh which goes to the i've heard nothing but good things about him off the field like football character really good he outperforms as a tester that again that could be a marker there um only 6.8% in press coverage anything under 8.8 anything under 9 that's a really low number.

So under 6.8% press coverage. He's almost all off coverage, almost all zone coverage. So he's basically sitting back and just attacking downhill. That's what he does really well. All those guys, when I look at, all right, if I sort that, when I go on my sheet and I look, who are the guys that were also really low in press coverage? And then I'm able to see their other numbers. All those guys had green production scores, like great, you know, we're always around the

ball, created impact plays. That was the case with Jad A. Barron. I talk about how much I value production. And when you look at Barron, now here's the thing. I talk about how like I weigh certain things differently. He had five picks this year. That was more than he had his previous four seasons combined. Go back and watch those interceptions.

He had three against Georgia in two games. One of them was on tip ball. The other, he was by himself in cover. Like there was no receiver in the area. And then the other receiver, the other receiver ran into him. It was a big collision at the catch. and the quarterback Carson Beck threw it right into his chest.

I'm not saying that production is like fraudulent. You need to be around the ball. That's great. I do think that he is late because there are times even when I saw it this year, but in years past when I've watched him, because I've watched him now for three seasons, shot a baron. If he's attacked vertically down the field and he has to try and look and find the ball late, he's very late in doing so.

I think that that's a reason why I do want to keep him on the inside. He's late to find the ball downfield. I love the aggressiveness. I don't think his like instincts down the field. or all that outstanding in terms of like reading routes coming his way. If he's a corner in cover three and trying to navigate all that, I don't think that he displays a great feel for being able to overlap and make those plays in coverage.

I think if you're keeping him underneath and you're letting him just go and attack, I think that that's a good role for him. Yeah, that's just a, that's a tough one. I'm going to be out on limb there. I'm going to be low on him and we'll see. I hope he proves me wrong. Good for you for sticking to your guns. I watched it again this morning like, all right, like maybe something will change.

Nothing changed. Okay. I mean, how much do you care about ball production at Corner? Looking at Azaria Thomas, only two interceptions in his career. Does that matter to you? To a certain extent, yes. The big thing, though, is, okay, like, he was a one-year starter. Yeah.

And everyone knew, like, he was the guy to avoid, you know, for that defense. That was a bad team this year. I'm just biding time until I get to these numbers. So one thing I'll look at. Now, here's the thing that's difficult with all back seven players, but certainly at corner where we're looking at this. Targets, that's a very loose term. Yeah.

Right? That's a very loose term. Just like pressures. Yeah. Well, yeah. I think it's even worse, though, when we're talking to targets. Because you could be a cover three corner playing, you know, 18 yards off the ball, and a ball's thrown at 10 yards, and they will count that as a target.

Now, that said, he was targeted on 10.5% of his past game snaps. that is like nothing. Teams like stayed completely away from him. So the fact that because services are so liberal with targets, the fact that that number is so low, that's like, yeah, that they completely stayed away from him. Now one of the things that's helpful to know.

And what I like to juxtapose that with, PFF has forced incompletions where it's like interceptions and past breakups like, you know, basically combined. How many, what's your forced incompletion percentage? How often are you creating those plays per target? His number was 21.6%.

this year, that's a high number. So it wasn't targeted often when he was. He was making play on the ball. All right. I mean, I like that combination on time. Oh, we got somebody we like. There we go. Now, he doesn't run well.

I'm worried about his speed. He didn't test the combine for that reason. He's got big hands. He's got big hands, got long arms. But people were talking about him in the first round. I'm like, oh, like, I don't know. But do you have, I'm putting it on the spot? Do you have the target rate?

Like, where that, like, who were the other guys over the past couple. You know the target rate one? Yeah. Yeah, I got you. I'm curious about that one. If that's indicative of anything, long term. We will ask you about Chavon Revelle in a minute.

I also want to ask about Tommy Hill, who you were a little bit higher on, 23 years old, and 6 foot and a half, 213 pounds, which is heavy for a corner. The heaviest corner in the sample that I have is Patrick Peterson, who was 219 pounds, but nobody else above 2.11. So we've got 312.

corners drafted in the last decade. So it's a huge sample. Huge number, yeah. Huge, huge samples. So that gives you 32 corners drafted that are in the top the like 90th plus percentile. So I'm just going to go from the top down.

And this is, as a reminder, these are people who were thrown away from the most, essentially. Sauce Gardner number one, 8.1%. Kooliad McKinstree last year, 8.9. Garrett Williams, who I was very high on and he's turned into a starter for Jonathan Gannon, Arizona, 9.1. Jalen Jones,

9.3. Robert Rochelle, smaller school. That's a tough one. 9.4. Patrick Sertan, 9.6. Kamar Lasseter, great rookie year for the Houston Texans, 10.1. Legarius Snee, Louisiana Tech, 10.2. Coaches, no. Cam Hart, day three, huge hit for the Chargers last year, became a starter, 10.4. Eric Stokes, 10.4. He was a solid player. Ronald Darby, 10.7. Pretty good indicator. Okay. Yeah, it's pretty good indicator. I like that. Yeah. That's a good one. All right, Chavon Ravelle, what do you want to talk about? This goes, it's kind of like the Carson-Swessing conversation where it hasn't played a ton.

sample. Yeah, only 15 starts, 880 snaps played. The day one and day two selections with 15 starts. This is that corner. It's a rough list. Will Redmond went day two out of Mississippi State didn't hit. Kelvin Joseph didn't hit for Dallas. Jalen Collins didn't hit for Atlanta. Denzel Ward obviously hit. Quentin Rollins. That was a fun prolog. We loved Quentin Rollins back in Ohio. Basketball player converted to play corner. Didn't work out for Green Bay. Resul Douglas, he hit third round pick. Mike Hughes for Atlanta. There's a little bit of a slow burn

but got there still starting in the league. I'd count that as a hit. Marshawn Lattimore hit. Ambrie Thomas, back up, Benjamin St. Juice, your guy. Yeah, but very volatile. I had a bad year this past year,

but I kind of liked the film. Josh Jackson did not hit for Green Bay. Jeff Akuta did not hit. Isaiah Oliver did not hit. Andrew Booth did not hit. So small sample size corners. It's a very, very low hit rate. Really only two blue players,

There's Larson Ladamore and Denzel Ward. And did he, when you watch him? I mean, he's your quarterback three. Yes. So did he walk on water? He did walk on water. So from that sample of the guys who are with 15 start, day one and day two picks, his production score, like, again, my production score, no one had a higher one than Chavon

Rebel. So he had the highest of that group. No one had a longer wingspan. So he's always really long. I was talking like traits. All right. Because we're obviously not getting testing because he's coming off the ACL. On the freaks list in the summer, they said he'd be a four three guy.

So like, all right, like, you're talking about the guy with that length and with that speed, with that production. Again, I'm just going off numbers here. But like his competitiveness, like how aggressive he was coming downhill, what he did in the run game, screen game really, really caught my eye. Only a couple of guys on that sample had a lower miss tackle rate. And only a couple had a higher percentage of positively graded run plays according to PFF. So again, just like showing an example of all right, like his willingness to play downhill, his competitiveness with the traits, with the production. that's why I'm willing to make that better. An older player from a small school

without having played that much, you better love what you see. It's the walk-on-water thing. Corner, by the way, I should say, relative to all the positions, along with running back and wide receiver, the youngest age when they enter the league, which makes sense, right?

Like the players are incentivized to come out early if they're that good. And so Revevel is a little bit older. Last one, Tommy Hill, who's also 23 years old, six foot and a half, 2.13. He's on a bigger side for a corner in this sample, but you like him, he's your cornerback four. Yeah.

Look, at the end of the day, this one might be a little bit of a look and feel, like a gut feel for me when it comes to Tommy Hill. He is certainly my kind of corner in that he is hyper competitive with good instincts, good ball skills, and I think his best football is ahead of him. He came into college as a wide receiver. He was actually a freshman catching passes from Jaden Daniels at Arizona State and ended up starting to kind of play both ways.

Maybe we're going to move in the corner, but then by midseason we're moving him back. there were some games where he played a little bit of both ways and he did that from his from Arizona State up till when he transferred to Nebraska played in Nebraska in 2023 where he played both ways over the course of the season it wasn't until this year when he moved to corner full time had a good start to the year his tape against Colorado was awesome I was really excited about what I saw then he got hurt so it was planter fasciitis uh which if you've ever done with that that sucks that's a that's a tough one to bounce back from he missed like uh julia

Julia knows. Yeah, you get out of bed. You're sitting on the couch at any point. It's just a sharp pain right up the leg. Basically, the coaches said, like, all right, you've got to take a couple weeks, sit it out, and he was just like, give me back on the field, give me back on the field,

give me back on the field. He gets back on the field, and he didn't look good. That Illinois tape was rough. So all of, like, the numbers, when you're looking at the numbers on Tommy Hill are not going to paint a pretty picture of what he did this past year, and there's going to be some bad tape out there of Tommy Hill.

He goes to this, I talked to him at the Combine, because I was curious about this. I said, what percentage were you at health-wise going down to the senior bowl? Because I thought the senior bowl, like, it was a little bit of a rough start. He got a little bit better as the week went on. His best day was day was day three,

which is red zone day. So like, all right, you didn't have to run and all that one. And that was his best day. So I said, like, what percent were you health-wise? And he was, like, probably like 80 percent. Most agents, I would say, like,

are going to say, and what I understand, like, talking to people is that, like, yeah, like, everyone told him, like, don't go down to the senior bowl because you're not healthy yet. but he was just like itching. He wanted to play.

He wanted to play. And so he was like, yeah, I'm going to go down there and I'm going to play. Didn't look great. His people were like, yeah, like, don't work out with the combine. Because I asked him like, where are you at health-wise now? He's like, I'm probably like 90%. So like I'm getting there, but I'm not fully back yet. So he didn't work out of the combine, which was good.

Because my guess is probably wasn't going to look great. But I'm going to tell you, man, like watching him on film, like major, major vibes of Trayvon Diggs and Zavian Howard, two guys that went, day two of the draft, big, competitive, ball skills. yeah, fluid, like, and like hyper competitive. Trayvon Diggs played some receiver as well. So there's similarities in the background there. I just love the film.

Like when he's healthy, like I really liked what I saw from Tommy Hill. So that's a little bit of a gut feel for me there. Brandon in the chat asks, are these rankings available on the website? And I got to tell you, if you have made it this far into this episode and you are not already like gobbling up everything that you can on the diehard draft guide,

I mean, you're doing yourself a disservice. All of this stuff, is part of the conversation that's on that website. You basically just get a, you know, there's being John Malkovich, you get to be Fran Duffy, and you get to step inside his brain on the diehard draft guide. Could not recommend it more. Another corner to ask you about us,

we get ready to head into overtime here, and this is the last corner. I just want to ask about Jacob Parrish from Kansas State under 510, 191, but around a 435. Does that speed play on tape to you? It does. He's just a tricky e-vow for me. in that

we're talking about this with like with Will Johnson a little bit where it's like okay there are a lot of people think that he's a press man corner but he's actually I think he's actually better in off coverage I think when you're looking at Jacob Parrish there's a lot there that would say like oh okay he actually he could be

pretty good in playing press man I mean he's got that four three speed to me I think that that shows up on tape I think he's pretty poised downfield when the ball's coming he was flagged seven times this year and he held a bunch down in Mobile at the senior

ball as well. I thought the penalties showed up there. So he can get a little grabby, but I do think that, honestly, to me, I think he was better from off coverage where he could, again, just kind of read and drive on throws and make plays on the ball that way. But he does have that press man skill set. I think the 4-3 speed does show

up on tape. All right. Let's go to safety. And if you have been waiting to talk about someone who is an outlier in the good sense, now is the time. Because we can talk about your boy, Nick Imanwari. I'm Benwari, who you have been gazzed up, and we have talked about him on the show before, but I just want to contextualize how insane

of a combine performance that was. So he's 6'3-220. So at 220, so at 220 pounds, which among all of the safeties, there are 40 safeties in the sample, that's the second heaviest guy after Cam Chancel. At 220, he runs a 438, which is the second fastest of all these guys.

He jumps 43 inches in the vert, which is tied for the best with Eric Berry, and then he also jumps 138 inches in the broad, which is the best by like a significant margin. The previous high was 132. What an insane athlete. Explosive, explosive playmaker. The film is really good.

Yeah, honestly, like I love this player and was not shocked at all, but what he did in Indianapolis. We talked about like the speed score, which is that weight adjusted 40 time. Second best speed score of any safety draft in the last decade the only one that was better Josh Jones when he was coming out of NC State I went to the second round of the group of backers Did not work out from what I understand that was more like character like off-field stuff Why that didn't hit so the other one would be like Obi Melifonwu

He also did not hit but I think when you're looking at at this I mean one of the freakyest athletes we've seen at the safety position And you see it all of that plays all the plays on film. Yeah like I had I honestly have like no concern his game whatsoever coming in. That doesn't mean that he's a lock to here, but I just feel great about the profile. Caleb Brantzaw, who's much farther down your list of safeties, but did test very well, 4333, but not 197 pounds, so much different frame that he's working with in a 40-inch vertical jump. Do you see that play on film and it's more about instincts, or why is he so low for you?

Yeah, I was, that was one of the more shocking ones for me. Okay. Because he is actually listed as a corner by most services. You know, and so he was a guy like, when I watched him, he's played in the, in the nickel he's been a slot corner for really the last yeah the last two seasons he was a straight corner in 2022 then moved to the slot and was like primarily in the slot the last two seasons for two lane uh and i remember when he got announced for the senior ball i you know i put out a tweet saying like yeah like you know basically i think this guy's might have to move to safety he's

been mostly a nickel corner uh and jim naggie responded right away and was like yeah he's gonna get safety looks in mobile um and he kind of bounced between both spots played some nickel played some safety. But run a 433, I did not see that coming. Now, again, that goes to the, all right, like, that's a good thing for a guy to outperform, you know, from an athletic testing standpoint. So, now, does he always play to that? Clearly not, based off what I've seen on tape, but I like the competitiveness. And, you know, to me, when I look at the body type, I do think he's probably more of a nickel. But yeah, that was a surprising test number. All right. Last guy, who we have talked about before, but itty-bitty, Billy Bowman.

5-9. I don't think I've heard of described that way. Just under 5-10. 28-5-inch arms. That's by far lower than anybody else in this sample. 8-5-8-inch hands.

I mean, is this a special teamer? Is this a guy who you can hide on defense because offense won't be able to see him and then he can surprise him? He's a good football player. I do think that he can start in the NFL. He's your safety six. Yeah.

Now, here's what I did. I told you I have it all color-coded. Yeah. So I said, okay, let me go through the safeties, the guys that were in the red for height, weight, hand size, arm length, wingspan. Okay. He is in the red for all, like in the single digit percentile for all. Here's the list of five safeties drafted in the last decade that were in the red at all spots.

Eddie Goodell. Yeah. Jordan Whitehead. Oh, okay. Starter. Yeah. Buda Baker. Okay.

Starter. Great starter. Jammy Robinson who was a day three pick in 2023 out of Florida State Jaquan Johnson Day three pick out of Miami in 2019 and then last year

Javon Bullard who would become a day one starter for the Green Bay Packers good player Okay So three out of five Restor that's one of those things We're like if you if you are that small

and can overcome it to be a draft of a player There must be something to you It's not a problem unless it's a problem That goes back to Lake Mike It's not a problem Okay Billy Bowman

I like a Billy Bowman All right Like the Willie Lampkin at safety. I am not a dime a dozen. I am Billy Bowman, and you are Biff Bowman. I feel like that. I feel so much better about that conversation than last week.

I wish I could read. You had a lot of homework. It was a couple hours of research this morning, but well worth it. It was good. That was a lot of fun. I don't know what we do from here. Well, next week we want to do the positive outliers?

Is that something like that? The guys who you like. The guys who we like based and like the numbers that support it. Okay. I like that. Okay. All right, that'll do it for the PHLY draft show with Fran Duffy. Thank you for joining us.

We will be back at 2 o'clock for the PHLY Eagles show. We're going to have a little draft focused conversation more specifically tailored to the Eagles on that show. And of course, we will be back on the PHLY draft show next Tuesday at noon. Again, we look forward to that. Thanks for watching and listening. We'll talk to you later. For Fran, I'm Beau. We'll see you next time.