PHLY Philadelphia Eagles Podcast - PHLY Eagles Podcast | Philadelphia Eagles over/unders: Will Saquon Barkley top 1,050 rushing yards?

Episode Date: June 20, 2024

Peer into the crystal ball for the Eagles’ 2024 season as we look into the Vegas projected totals for players like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert. Zach Berman and Bo Wulf go on the very early record. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

everybody and welcome to the p hl yagles podcast on a thursday afternoon from home bo wolf and zach burman here to talk about over unders zach how you doing we haven't i haven't seen you since yesterday what's going on are you enjoying the cold open era of the p hl yagles podcast they're doing well excited for the show always enjoy a cold open uh west wing yeah yeah i i love the west wing cold opens. I love the, you know, the, there's, there's different shows that had great cold open Studio 60 on Sunset Strip. So yeah, happy, happy for the cold open. Any non-sorking shows you can think of. I'm sure I can, but the best, I associate the cold opens with the Aaron Sorkin shows. Nonetheless, you do a great job with it, as one would expect. What else is going on in your world

these days? Preparing for the show, going through the over-unders. responding to feedback from yesterday's show, and yeah, looking forward to the show. Okay. We can get to some of that feedback in a little bit. But let's hit the ground running here, Zach. You have been kind enough to pull together some of the official over-unders, courtesy of places like Bet Parks, their sportsbook, and also put together some of your own homemade concoctions of over-unders for the 2024 season. I'm excited to talk about these, talk these through and get to it.

What was your favorite one to come up with? Of the homemade ones? Yeah. Okay. I did not expect that. I would say we'll start with the pre-made ones. The Jake Elliott missed field goals for my favorite one because I didn't realize how, well, I didn't realize, but he's been so proficient with field goals in these last three seasons. and there are so few that he misses.

So when I was going through, I was trying to find a Jake Elliott make. And then I'm like, wow, look how few he misses. So that was a fun one to put together. I feel like we should do. So we're going to go through these. You know, we've got we've got ones for AJ Brown and Devante Smith and Dallas Goddard, Jill and Hurts, Sequin Barkley. We've got some big picture Eagles, you know, finishing season over wind total, stuff like that.

I feel like you and I should each, we should put our name on one at least. Like, you know, we'll say which one we would lean towards, but what's our, what's our best bet, you know? Okay. I can, I can do that. One, you would bet a, you know, a copy of the franchise on, potentially. Sure. If someone wants to bet $28 on, that's what the listed price is. That's a good price point.

28? Yeah. Yeah. I think that's a, I think that's a well marketed price. point. That's good, that's good work. Because it tells you this is, this is no, this is no cheapy. You know, this is, this is, this is something. This is something with some heft. This is somebody, somebody spent some time on, but also, not going to, you're not going to break the bank. Yeah, no, this, this does have some heft. If you go on Amazon, it'll say 256 pages,

but that's, that's not the case. There's actually, let me pull it up here, 322 pages. I, I wrote longer than I was contracted to. Uh, so I, I, I, Yeah, so this is, they got a bunch of free words, we can say, right? Where can people buy such a book when it comes out? Where could they pre-order? Pre-order is matter. Yeah, pre-order. You can pre-order on Amazon.

Anywhere books are sold, honestly, online. You can pre-order. Try on publishing their website. Try on books rather there with their website. And then when this comes out, you'll be able to contact me directly. I've been in my free time working on a website that will allow you to kind of contact me directly to get a signed copy of the book. I'll ship it out to you.

We had a great listener, Will, who I actually sent five copies of Underdogs to last week. And, yeah, so it was more than happy to do that. I mean, I did want to get to the overhundreders, but I feel like you have revealed a little thread that needs to be pulled for the audience. In your free time, you've been working on a website. Tell us more. There's nothing to pull out. Are you doing the coding for this bad boy? Have you been taking classes?

Well, I did take coding classes in college, but this is not, I mean, fortunately in, in 2024, they make it pretty easy. Sure. You don't have to do the, the HTML coding, if you will. So just going through what looks aesthetically, what makes sense there, I'm paying a lot of attention to how it looks on a cell phone. and a way for one to access to see the books, but then contact me directly so they can submit a form for me to send books out to them, any personalized messaging that they want with it. So things like that.

Wow, that's great. Zach Bermanhub.com. What do we got? It's going to be by Zach B-Z-B-E-C-H-B-E-R-M-A-N.com. That's what it will be. Did you think about B-U-Y? No, because my by-lines by Zach Berman. I had, when I was in college, I had Zach Berman.com.

I let it laugh. Someone bought it. And you can't. It's like, it's, it's probably McLean. You can't even get it. Probably McLean. But no, I want to get to the overrunners. But certainly, yeah, there will be a website set up.

They'll make it easy. for people to buy books one other follow-up what free time what free time um good question uh usually the free time is like from 10 to 12 30 at night wow late night website building good for you yeah well i'm not writing a book and i i am grading i'm doing a lot of grading right now car otter state join my class there. But I'm writing for PHLY. I have some stuff coming up there that I've been working on. All phtly.com, of course, become a diehard.

Of course. Yeah. So, but I would love to get to these over-unders. So people can make some money to buy books or whatever they want to spend money on. There you go. All right. Let's start with AJ Brown. He's at the top of our layout here.

AJ Brown last year, Zach had four. 1,156 receiving yards, which was 40 yards fewer than he had the year before in 2022 when he was just under 1,500. And the over under for A.J. Brown is 1,300.5 receiving yards. So basically, if you're following what he's done, you're betting on him to stay healthy. If he does, you would think that he would surpass that. How do you feel about 1,300.5 for A.J. Brown? Yeah, but I think it framed it well there because I think the health is the only question here is that he's been remarkably durable during these past two seasons. As we've discussed, Amanda, DeVante, if he's out there for 16 games, I wouldn't, you know, I'm not even saying 17, 16 games, 15 games.

I would anticipate him going over here. I did have over on the yards. The only qualification is injuries. I don't want to bet on someone getting injured. But A.J. Brown, to his credit, has been durable with Eagles. Yes. Now, with Tennessee, over the three years in Tennessee, he would not have surpassed this, obviously. And he missed time in the two seasons before coming to Philadelphia.

But, you know, he's averaging with the Eagles about 86 receiving yards per game. if you expect them to run a little bit more with Sequin Barclay. And you think he's going to miss two games. Let's say he goes down to 75 yards per game. And he plays 15 games that wouldn't get you there. But it is hard to believe that given everything that the Eagles have invested in A.J. Brown, you know, given the way that they think about him and the way they think about the passing game, it's basically a bet on him to stay healthy or not.

exactly and look he said he's in the best shape of his life i know that's a common thing this this time of year hearing a j this spring you can tell that he's he's he's not satisfied with you know 1400 guards that with like what he's had he's he's pushing he's pushing he's pushing i think the eagles are are going to be pass heavy uh even more so than or comparably so to what they've been in the past. There's a chance that they are in less competitive games this year with an easier schedule. So perhaps they take on big leads. That said, that was the case two years ago.

And AJ surpassed this total. So I think as long as AJ stays healthy, over 1,300 yards is a reason. And just to sort of set the scene here, Zach, how many players would you guess topped 1,300 receiving yards in the entire NFL last year? Well, good question. I'm guessing seven. Zach, you are a genius. Zach, Zach, Zach, Zach, not a genius. It is not a genius.

The YouTube commenters will tell you I'm not a genius. But, yeah, but I mean, Adam Peters would tell you that you are. Joshua Harris, perhaps, right? Yeah, so seven. Who were those seven? Tyree Kill. You want to see if you can get them all? Let's see, do a stump the Schwab, see if you can get all seven. Yeah.

I recall AJ Brown. You got it. Amon Rosset Brown. Correct. C.D. Lamb. Correct. Okay. I'm going.

I'm doing how we should have done during the liar game, which is going through the one of these surprises me. If you would put me on the spot, I would not have gotten all seven. Yeah. So AJ and C.D. Lamb would be the only ones I would say in the the NFC East. In the NFC South, I know Adam Feelein had a big year, but I don't think he was quite there last year. You're looking incredulous right now. Yeah, Adam Fieland was on the top 25. Yeah, so no, so I'm thinking out of Mike Tomlin time again. We're just thinking this,

this is 2013. I stand by the Mike Tomlin. I don't think Mike Evans was there. I don't think Chris Olive was there. Okay. So let's go NSC's. Yeah. So let's go NFC North. Sorry that I'm thinking

out of there. Do you want me to do this? Or do you want to? We're already down the railway here. So I said, I said a Monrasse, Brown.

Correct. DJ Moore did not do it. Christian Watson did not do it. So, and then, obviously, Justin Jefferson. Yeah.

Justin Jefferson did not. Oh, no, no. Yeah, no. He got injured. He got injured. That's correct. But this is the one that I would never have gotten. You already said him.

DJ Moore did do it. DJ Moore did do it. Interesting. 1364. Philly tough right there. Yes. How about that? I like that.

So let's roll over to the NFC West where you got D.K. McCaff had a good year but did not do it? Did it McHaf do it? No. I'm saying no. Yeah. Brandon and I, You did it. Brandon Ayuk to it.

Yes, he was the last one. He's number seven on the list. And the other person on the list is also in this division. Okay. Well, I know that my cardinals did not reach that. Your car, so Puka Nakua. Correct. Yes, Puka Nakua.

So, you know, will AJ Brown finish in the top seven in receiving yards? Again, if so, if healthy, probably so. The other one here listed that you can bet on is the receiving touchdowns for A.J. Brown. And that is seven and a half. over the past couple of seasons. He was seven last year and 11 the year before. Yeah, I'm not a gambling expert, although I would certainly like to be.

That would be a good thing to be an expert in. But I typically like to go with the unders on the touchdowns. There's so much variability to the touchdowns. I think yards are a little stickier than touchdowns. Yeah, I don't know why you would bet on the touchdowns when you could just bet on the yards. Yeah. I mean, unless they are way different.

Yeah, there's so many variables for the touchdown. So I'm going under on the seven and a half. He's been like, I was looking at this in my research. He was under, under, under, right? I think that would just be a stayaway for me. But if pressed, I guess I would take the under. All right, let's go on to Devante Smith, Devante Smith, who over the three years of his career has finished with,

as a rookie, 916 receiving yards in 2022, 1,100. 196 receiving yards just under 1,200. And then last year, 1,06 receiving yards in 16 games. And his over under listed is 1,000.5. So it sort of seems like another one where you're betting on him to stay healthy. Depending on what the odds are here, this would be close to, you know,

the Bo's best bet to just go over on Devante Smith here. if he stays healthy, I find it hard to believe he wouldn't top that, but obviously, health matters. Yeah. Devantez has one game in his entire career, and it was that week 17 game. Exactly. I will let you take this as the best bet, but I would agree with you as far as the Bose best bet because I was surprised by this. I would say until I find a better one, yeah, this would be, yeah. Yeah, this was, I thought this was an easy over.

Again, health baked in, but he's an ascending player. You know, Rich and I did that show, the maxi show, if you will, who can ascend to that, that superstardom level. And I think Devante's that type of player. I know you can't go over for all these guys. I do expect Eagles to have a high-powered offense. But I am bullish on this over. I was surprised to see this at 1,000.5. Brendan Katz in the chat really disagrees with everything I'm saying.

You don't think Devonte Smith is an ascending player? Okay, well, I mean, sorry for Brandon Katz. His best season, yeah, Brandon Katz says his best season by far was two years ago. He's been in the league three years. Name a single eagle whose best season wasn't two years ago. The entire team's best season was two years ago. Yeah. Yeah, so I.

That's a really comment. Yeah, I like Devante. Here, I'll put it this way. I don't think Devante's ceiling is like 1,050 yards, right? I think Devante has a much higher ceiling than what we've already seen. By the way, 27 receivers last year topped this number, Zach, including the person tied for last on that list, your boy, Adam Thielen, at 1,014. Although I think what you may be leaning on, and this is a bit of a peek inside the Zach Berman mind,

is that Adam Thielen had 103 catches. And so you like a you like a volume catcher and not a yards producer. You know, it was it's kind of like back in the day when, you know, we were we were a judge based on subs on subscriptions. Okay. And I said like you were pounding on. Yeah. You were. Yeah.

Whatever it is the like the the buck shot, you know. Yeah. If I was knocking it out with like five subs here, eight subs there, four subs here, 12 subs there. right? I could hold off and try to get like a hundred subs story, but now the two aren't mutually exclusive, but I was I was more of your, I was your slot receiver type. Like I was I was banking those subs based on volume. Six and a half is the over under unreceiving touchdowns for Devante Smith. This one also a little bit unpredictable. He was five as a rookie, seven each of the past two seasons. Again, I would think that this is kind of a stayaway. Yeah, I would stay away. Now, I assumed when we did this, we would have to take an over. I would go over if I had to.

Okay. I went under here just because the touchdown variability. But, yeah, over is a fine bed. All right. Before we move on, Zach, let's talk about our friends at better help. Because maybe if you're Jalen Hertz and you're getting, get a bigger year from Devante Smith, that means we get some better help on the outside. How about that? Well, when life goes so fast, it's important to take a moment to celebrate your wins and make adjustments for the rest of the year.

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Can I say what you were doing and hanging out with your grandpa last night? Yeah, knock it out. Yeah, congratulations. Congratulations to Jenna Berman on the engagement. Very exciting. Yeah, my amazing sister is engaged to a wonderful, man, Jeremy, and looking forward to celebrating them. But congratulations to them. Jenna watches the show. So yeah, congratulations to them. And if any of the sickos want to get them anything as a present, I believe they are registered at Athletic Greens. He is a fan of Athletic Greens. That's for sure. But yeah, if you recall, that's a good Easter egg action because they're a long-time listeners know when I've read Athletic Arena ads in the past, I always mention my sister's boyfriend.

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Let's talk Dallas Goddard now. Yeah. This is a good one. This is an interesting one. The over under for Dallas Goddard and receiving yards is 600.5, 600 on the dot, essentially. And you go back through Dallas Goddard's last five years. years, 2019, when he was not even the number one tight end, 607 receiving yards when he played in just 15 games. The next year, 11 games, 524 receiving yards would have gone under.

2021, 830 receiving yards, a career high. 2022 in just 12 games went over here, 702 yards. And then last year, a down year in 14 games went just under with 592 receiving yards. at 28 years old, has Dallas Goddard fallen off the cliff enough that you are hesitant here? Or are you betting on something of a rebound for the 29-year-old tight end? Yeah, I pushed the over on both of these, honestly. When I say both these, we'll get to the touchdowns. It may be a sucker bet for me. I always say, like, this is a year Dallas Goddard is going to have a bigger role.

But I think you outlined it there, even if he has, like, simply the role he's had in the past. I would feel comfortable with him pushing or exceeding this, this number. The upside here is much better than the downside here. Like even if he, even if he misses it, he, he's like within,

you know, 7,500 yards of it. And I think there's a chance he, he could far exceed this. Like you're talking 800, 900 yards. I think he's a good player, needs to stay healthy. We know that.

Now, the thing about his injuries is it's not like a player who gets a hamstring injury all the time. It's been different types of injuries. That said, he's a major part of the offense. There's no one behind him who's pushing or playing time from him. So I feel good about Dallas got her with the over. I count 13 tight ends who topped this number a season ago,

including Dalton Kincaid, which I never would have guessed. And your boy, Kyle Pitts. But, yeah, I mean, this is another one where- Yeah, Lotton Kays for the number one receiver in Buffalo. But yeah, I'm sorry. Okay. This is another one where you're betting on him to stay healthy enough. Let me ask you this question, Zach.

You're leaning over on all three of these guys. If you had to bet the under on one, who would it be? AJ. Okay. Just because the number is so high? Yeah, the number is so high is that like his down year could be 1,250 yards, right? You don't know about the injury situation. Yeah.

I mean, 1,300 yards, like you said, there were seven receivers in the NFL who hit that last year. It's just, it's a higher hurdle to exceed. Sure. Okay. And then as for Goddard, the over under on tight on receiving touchdowns is three and a half. This is one where, like, I have been a sucker in years past thinking that Goddard was going to have more receiving touchdowns, that the team would like prioritize that to use him there and it has never really played out. he's never had more than five touchdowns in a season and that was back in 2019

last four years three four three three yeah uh so it's it's a it's a good job by bet parks with this uh three and a half number i think it's it's a good number but um we talk about touchdown variability so when there's a low over under he tend to like to go high on that because you know he can he can have a two touchdown game right there and you know you know be 66% of the way there. So there you go. All right. We move on now to the quarterback, Zach.

And we've got rushing and passing numbers here for Jalen Hertz. Let's start with Jalen Hertz as a runner. The overrunner for yards is 575 and a half. And in Jalen Hertz's career, he has topped that number each of the last three seasons. Even last year when he was less dynamic. as a runner, 605 rushing yards, the two years prior, 760 and 784. Even if you expect that Saquine Barkley is going to take a bigger load of the running game, and the Eagles aren't going to tush push as much, right?

I would still lean over here as long as he stays healthy. I mean, 575 and a half is not too much for a running quarterback. Sure. I was leaning over here as well. And the interesting part to this is the odds. Overs plus 100, unders minus 124, right? So you're actually, you know, giving up some money going with the under. I think over is the better bet.

I think this is such an easy part or such a big part of Jones game. He was clearly hindered by injury last year. He acknowledged that. We acknowledged that you and Balthy were actually on that before I was when you saw him run. I got to imagine for for J.1 Hertz to be J.1 Hertz, it would have to be like over over 575 rushing. Yeah, it'd be pretty disappointing if he, one way or another, if he did not go over here. Exactly, exactly. The flip side is the rushing touchdowns where obviously he had the benefit of the Tush Push with Jason Kelsey, 15 rushing touchdowns last season, 13 the year before,

the number here is 10 and a half. So I would say I'm less interested in the over here, just not knowing what they're going to do and because they do have Sequin Barclay, like you should think that maybe you have to lean on it less, but at the same time, it is such a money play for them that I don't know. I don't know what to expect on the,

on the tush push front. What's your gut tell you? My gut tells me they will still do it. They might do it just a little bit less. Okay. And do you think that's based on, not having Kelsey and Kem Juergens being in there or trying to preserve Joan Hertz

or the league catching up with it. I would say I would rank it. Jurgens for Kelsey number one, the league number two, protecting Hertz number three. Okay. How about you? Yeah.

Yeah, I think the league part of it would probably be the number one for me, right? I think there's going to be more, I don't know if it's a play that you say can be stopped. but I also think having Sequin there will factor into it. You know, I think the Eagles like having a bigger back here. And certainly it's a different offensive. It's a different center and right guard, right?

So three of the most important pieces, you know, three of the four most important pieces in this play are different this year. Now, I know Cam Juergens was the right guard last year, but three, you know, or I should say two of this, the spots changed. So the way I see it is that I could see them touch-pushing less, not taking it out of the playbook, but giving it to Barkley more. 10 and a half is a big number. J-1 has done a good job topping that the past two years, of course, but I would go slightly under on this. Yeah, I think I would lean that way as well.

Go ahead. And by the way, the over here is minus 130, the unders plus 105. So you're making a little bit more money going under. There you go. All right. Let's talk Jillen Hertz, the passer, the Kellynne Moore offense, 95% different than it was a season ago. A season ago, Jillen Hertz threw for 3,8808 yards. The year before, when he didn't have to throw quite so much, he threw for 3,701 yards.

The over-under for him in passing yards is 3,600.5. So again, if he stays healthy, hard to imagine he doesn't top this, but how confident are you that he's going to make it through? Yeah, good question. This is one where the juices, again, tilted towards, they expect the under. You get a little, you get plus odds for the over on this one. Yeah. Yeah, I went slightly under here.

Interesting. Which is kind of counterintuitive because I went over for all the receivers, right? or all the pass catchers. True. So, yeah, obviously, injury is a part of this year, too. I could see him. I think they're going to pass the ball a lot,

but, you know, I can see this around 3,500 yards. He had an MVP year, two years ago. Are you doing that in anticipation of him missing time? As I open. Is that an eye pop there? It's a seltzer. Seltzer.

not necessarily missing time but but so you know what i was thinking this um yeah he was at 3,700 yards two years ago. Um, so I, I am going to go over here. I'm going to go slightly over. And let's just let's just math this out. 3600 yards. Let's say he plays 16 games. That would be 225 passing yards per game. Yeah, he should go over on this. He should go over. I think when I wrote this down because I did this all yesterday and I had I think I was I was taking into account the injury possibility right if you miss three games kind of knocks you out of this but still I I don't want to pick on injuries so I will go with a slightly over but this is probably a stay away from me and just to give the number here again 16 quarterbacks in the league topped this number

a season ago. So, you should be in there if he's healthy. The other number here and as Jalen Hurts has a passer is passing touchdowns. And the number is 21.5, which is

much closer to what he had each of the past two seasons. 23 a season ago, 22 the year before. Maybe if you're thinking he's not going to run for as many, they're not going to push as much. A couple of those will turn into a little bunny touchdown passes. This number could rise,

but it's interesting that this is so close to his numbers from the past two seasons and the passing yards are so much different. Yeah, so this would be my, my Zach over, or my Zach best bet. Your best bet. Interesting. Yeah, if you're going with Devante, I like the over here. Now, the other thing I was going to mention with the Tushbush, is they were, I don't want to say lucky, but it was remarkable how many times they were inside,

like the three-yard line at the goal line, right? There are, I could see them having more red zone touchdowns this year. Number one, I think he's going to be a more prolific touchdown quarterback this season, Jalen Hertz. Hasn't been that way in the past. They've obviously run more as they've gotten close. to the goal line. I think they can have more explosive plays. I think that

this is a small number for the amount of weapons that they have. I think it's been watered down in the past, like you said, because of it's rushing touchdowns, but I am going with over here, and I actually and interestingly, over is plus 107, under is minus 132. Or, no, I'm sorry,

that was the passing yards. This one's even. I would go, I wrote this down as the one I liked a lot. I think he could push the 30 touchdowns this year. Interesting. 14 quarterbacks in the league. Top this number last year.

30, they're only four. But I guess for the reasons that you're saying, you see more reds on touchdowns. This one is a little bit of a stayaway for me. So I'll let you have this one on the Zach Berman corner. Fair enough. All right. Let's talk the big one.

The marquee acquisition of the off-season. in Zach, Sequin Barclay. That over, under, is 1,050.5 rushing yards. So we don't have all-purpose yards, but we have rushing yards. And if you look at Sequin Berkeley's career, six seasons, he's gone over this number

only twice, which is, I think, a bit of a surprise. His rookie year, and then in 2022, obviously, he has had trouble staying healthy over the course of his career. You know, he was just under in 2019. His second year, when he played in 13 games a season ago with the Putra Giants, 14 games, 962 rushing yards. I feel like a broken record, and I don't want to keep saying this, but I do believe

it's hard to think that he wouldn't go over this if he stays healthy. I think the Eagles are incentivized to give him the ball a lot. I would lean towards the over. Now, the over is, as you have laid out, plus 100. The under is minus 124. I would lean towards the over, but I'd also don't know that I am willing to put my money on Sequin Barclay playing 16 games. Yeah, you outlined it well there. When I saw this number for the first time, I was like, oh, this is an easy over.

And then when I looked at his career, I was like, oh, he's only hit this twice in six years, right? And then I said, well, the Eagles running backs in the past two years have been worse than Saquan. Well, DeAndre Swift actually came slightly under this number last year. Miles was over two years ago. The Eagles haven't really hit this number much in the past decade. Swift came 1.5 yards shy last year, like just shy. Slightly under. And I look at it like DeAndre had a great season, which he did.

And by the way, it says a lot about the landscape of the NFL that let's just say you counted. DeAndre Swift, let's say he got two more yards, that would have been only five running backs in the entire league who taught this number. Exactly. And then when needles talk about Sequin's involvement, they always frame it as touches, right? And I think Sequin is going to have a role in the passing game. I think that's one way they're really going to try to use him. So when I think about 300 touches for him, if he's healthy, let's say 60 of those touches. okay are catches all right so then you're you're you're down right there to 240 and certainly if

if you're at 240 uh if if you're four and a half carry you if you get four and a half yards per carry you'll top this but if you look at his career he's 4.3 yards per carry in his career right i understand better offensive line i understand better offense. But this is kind of a stayaway. And if I had to pick one, I would say under because of the injury possibility, which we've seen in his career and the chance that it's not going to be, he'll be more of a factor in the passing game than maybe more in the running game. Yeah, I mean, I do expect the yards per carry to shoot up from what he's been in his career because of what you said.

The offensive line should be better. The attention paid to Jalen Hertz will definitely be better. The offense itself will be much better. But if you just think of like the Eagles incentives here, it's less about, you know, making sure that he plays 17 games or has 1,200 rushing yards and more that he can be an impact player in December and January, right? So if there are games when he's a little bit dinged up, I think the Eagles would probably lean towards like,

let's make sure that he can play later in the season. So I would, if I had to bet, I still would take the over, but one where I don't feel super great about it just because of the injury history. Yeah, I was like I said, I changed my mind on this when I looked at the numbers, but I do have them over for the touchdowns. When the touchdown number is seven and a half, another one where he has only hit that in two of his six seasons. But if you are betting on, I mean, you're all.

All these touchdowns, Zach, you're saying some are going to go to Gillenhurts passes, but also more are going to go to Sequin Barclay runs. You got a lot of touchdowns. I have a lot of tie. I think they're going to score a lot of points this year. But I guess you need yards to get there, right? So they're not going to have pickoff returns to the five yard line every time. There you go. Or punt returns.

Yeah. That's the great thing about overrunners. You don't have to pick all of them. You just pick the ones you like. Well, in the minute, Zach, we're going to get to some of the overruners that you have created that are not listed. publicly on places where you can bet. Maybe a better way to go about it then is to take these ones that Zach's going to throw out, pull together your friends, and just bet a couple Miller lights on it.

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Now, we're talking about game time here, and they want us to tell you about how we love going to MLB games this summer and sharing a memory of games we attended in the best. But you know what I'm going to do? I'm going to give you the best endorsement of a product I can. I used game time this week. Okay, I took my son to a Phillies game with my wife for his birthday, and I wanted to get specific type of tickets. And if you looked at my phone last week for the most used apps, game time would have been

maybe the highest up there. I kept refreshing game time looking at the tickets, monitoring, okay, is it going to get to this price? Jumped here, go down here. Do I wait until closer to pitch? Ultimately, I got the tickets last weekend for a Monday game. Invariably, I kept checking the game time app. And I was kind of kicking myself as we got closer to the game.

even said to my wife on the drive down, I said, I could have just waited right now and gotten the tickets that I wanted on game time. And the reason I say that is game time is the place to go for MLB tickets. Don't just, I'm not just saying this because they're advertising. I use game time to go to games. It's the authorized ticket marketplace and major of the baseball, which makes getting tickets faster and easier. Prices on the game time map actually go down the closer gets the first pitch with Kilworth, last minute deals all in prices, viewed from your seats in the lowest price guarantee. Game Time takes the guest work out of buying MLB tickets.

So the view from the seats, that's what sold my son. I said, do you want to see this view? He said, get those right now. So we got that. But you can also wait to the last minute because with last minute deals, you can save up to 60% off buying last minute for sports, concerts, comedy, and theater in New Year. They also have flash deals and zone deals all in pricing, the lowest price guarantee.

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So let's talk about, your boy, Bryce Huff, you have set the over under at nine and a half sack. So a double-digit sack season for Bryce Huff, something that he has done only once last season when he hit exactly 10, but obviously we are expecting much more playing time for Bryce Huff. I think he's a good number. Yeah, I'm expecting the Eagles to play with the lead this year. That happened, of course, two years ago,

and they set a franchise record in sacks. I don't think they'll have as many double-digit sack guys, but I can see that, look, if Bryce Hops below that number this year, I think that's a disappointment, right? Hassan Reddick has topped this, this number the past four years. And so I'm going over. I think that's a fee no less than an hour ago. 10 sacks?

Just, I'm just riffing. Okay. You're on fire today. I'm going over on this. Do you going over? I think, I mean, I would have, if pushed, water gun to the midsection, I'd go over. I do. I mean, I think that's a safe bet, except, you know, he has only done it once.

It's a good one. I'm curious to hear your next one. You go first on the next one here. Well, the next one is his partner, Josh Sweat. I don't know where you're going. You set the over under at 23 and a half sacks, and I know that you are going over here. That's a good lie. No, it is at nine and a half.

You are pitting them against each other. Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff, I would say that I am more willing to bet on Bryce Huff. Now, Josh Sweat, only 27 years old. He has only topped this number once, and that was two years ago. Last year he was all the way down at six and a half. Sell me on Josh Sweat getting to double-digit sacks. Sell you on Josh Sweat, I mean, 65, 265. Six-five is the amount of sacks he had last year in 17 games.

A potent pass rusher. I mean, if you look at his... his win rate. There's it's promising. Did you, did you set the overall win rate or? He's a talented,

he's a talented pass rusher. Tens a high number. He was certainly on, as Derek Jeter says, his least favorite expression in sports is on pace for. And I think Josh Sweat is an example of that last year because

midseason, we'd say he's on pace for a career high in sacks. I like it on pace for actually. You've got to take it with a grand of salt. Like I love when a guy hits two home runs on opening day, and all of a sudden he's on pace for, you know, 324 home runs. Yeah, Derek Jeter, it's like a ticket after my heart in this sense.

I believe in consistency, right? And like that's that's Jeter's whole point. And, you know, I've talked to coaches and executives about the concept of like optimum performance versus typical performance. Like what? what do you value more? And I value typical performance more than anything else. Like I value, you know, what are you day in, day out?

What are you getting day and day out? Sure. You don't want to give one woman a huge gift basket and the next one, a little gift basket. You want to give every single woman who stays over the exact same gift basket. I'm not getting involved in any of the extracurricular conversations. What happens in its private time? That's consistency, you know. What happens in this private time is as long as there's nothing nefarious,

then it's his, that's his business, not mine. As a ball player, remarkably consistent. And clutch, too. You can't measure clutch, but clutch, too. So in any event, yeah, this is, this is probably ambitious for Josh Swett to go over 10 and a half. He's done it once in his career. It's not crazy.

It's not crazy. It's not crazy. I think Josh Swett's capable of this. And I think if he's healthy, contract year, I was listening yesterday to a good podcast, you know, Philly Special, Gio Copadde's podcast with, and it was Ben Solick and Brandon Lee Gouten,

and they were talking about not jersey numbers, but they take something ahead of time, or they take something after the fact about Josh Sweat's jersey number. And the switch from 94 to 19, and they remarked that it made them look slower. do you think it made him look slower when you watched him in camp? I mean, that didn't occur to me when I was watching him during camp, but I do think it's a worst number for sure.

People keep saying that when I say people. They said it on the pod yesterday, and I've heard fans say that. I think it's cool. Like, I like... Of course, you think it's cool. It's Josh Swett. If he was wearing jersey number 473, you would think he was cool. you're not allowed to wear

473 I like when you wear like you know non-traditional I remember when Tishan wore 19 I thought that was so cool

it's like it stands out that was back before wide receivers could be in the teens or before they they wore the teens it stood out to me

I I like when you have a jersey number that's that's so like the crab emoji or something something like that.

That's not traditional. No, that's not even a number. The crab, I didn't even know there was a crab emoji. I think there is. Well, he's from Maryland. That's my going crap. He's actually not from Maryland. He's from Virginia.

He's from New Maryland. Now, where he's from in Virginia does have crabs. He's from like the 757. If you're a, if you're from, if you're from, Virginia and I say and say and you hear me said 757 you'll know what I'm talking about he's from the 757 what what emoji would you use to indicate Virginia indicate Virginia yeah um a sword for the cavalier something like that yeah yeah yeah that's a good one although I would send respect to the Hokies as well I don't know that that's that that's a that's a really good one

what's the expression, Virginia's for seven expression. Virginia's for lovers, yeah. So what would you do for lovers? A heart. Eggplant peach? Yeah, Virginia's for lovers. Okay, that's an actual expression. It's the slogan of the state of Virginia.

Virginia is for lovers. So then I would do hard. Most polyameralist state. You look at the out of. I would do a heart because Virginia is. is for lovers. Yeah, but I don't think that would. If you were, if you were playing a game and it was like, okay, guess what state I'm talking

about and you just put a heart? I feel like you'd be hard pressed to have the other person correctly guess Virginia. If I did a sword were they guessed Virginia? Probably not, but maybe. Okay. What emoji would you? I'm not an emoji guy. I got to be honest, I don't use emojis.

My daughter loves emojis and she fills out. on her iPad, like the notes pad, just like emojis, emojis, she loves emojis. I don't use emojis. I use words. I mean, you don't have to brag about that. Well, here, how about North Carolina, where you went to college? What would you use as the emoji? North Carolina, I think you would just have to do a Tar Hill blue color and hope that the color got it.

How about Winston-Salem? Like a cigarette? Well, you could do a cigarette. You could do a cigarette. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That'd be good one.

Yeah. Cigarette might get it done. Okay. Okay. A couple more here. The leader in interceptions on the Eagles, whoever that may be, the over-under is four and a half interceptions. Yeah, I'm going under here.

Now, C.J. Gardner exceeded that two years ago when he had six, but only six players in the NFL had more than four and a half interceptions a season ago. Yeah, I'm going under here. What about you? I think I would take the under, too, for the reasons that you said. I'm going to skip ahead to the non-Dalice Goddard tight-end receiving yards. And you are including all of them, not like whoever finished a second. You were saying everybody else on the team combined.

Yep. $199.5. I'm taking the under, big time. Yeah, and last year, I mean, if you look, Dallas Goddard even missed time, right? and Grant Calcutera, Jack Stoll, would have been under this number. So I am going under here as well, which I think might surprise some people, but I'm not expecting many receiving yards from the second and third tight end. Now, this one is surprisingly high to me.

Non-Saquan Barclay running back receiving yards, you have it at 299.5. That seems pretty high. You have high expectations. Yeah, what do you can't? Well, no, there's there's, there's, there's, very well, cheer. What do you think

Kenny Gainwell was last year? Or did you already look it up? I did not look it up. I'm going to guess. I was surprised. So.

Okay. Yeah, so I was surprised about it. Kenny Gainwell was 183 last year. Okay. Okay. So,

so I was surprised to see how many yards there was, they were there. First off, a Sequin injury could boost this up. I think there's a chance

they do use Shipley in the, in the receiving game. This is slightly high. I will be honest, I originally went $199 to match the tight ends. But then I saw, when I saw what Gainwell had,

I was like, all right, I'm going to bump this up 100. I would go under here for, seems like, just seems high. Unless there's an injury. Yeah.

Even if there is an injury, I don't think they're going to all of a sudden make Will Shepley and Kenny Gainwell, the focus of the passing game. No, but, you know, if you look at Calmore and Dallas,

the second running back, Tony Power, was prolific through the air. And that's with Zeke Elliott, who can catch the ball well. Okay. I like these DV-O-A ones. Do you want to save those? I don't know if you have your entire Tickbackbow tomorrow, but this could be one of the Eagles ones.

Okay. Or we can save that for the season overrunners as well. There you go. When we do that, yeah. So let's close with the one that you teased at the top of the show. Let's ring it full circle, Zach. a real professional outfit that we're operating here today.

Jake Elliott missed field goals, three and a half. How many did he miss last year? Yeah, Jake Elliott, so he's been under three in each of the past three seasons, which I found crazy. Like, if you think about it, and he's not just kicking like chip shots.

He's kicking long field goals. So last year he was 30. It actually like specifically relative to the rest of the league because the Eagles go for it more. He's probably kicking more long. I would guess, and I could be totally wrong about this, that his like average field goal attempt length is towards the longer end of the league. Yeah, that's good. I actually looked that up.

But two years, so last year he was 30 of 32. Two years ago he was 20 of 23. Three years ago, he was 30 of 33, right? So he's been under three and a half. each of the past three seasons. This is a major departure from the first four years of his career. He was 26 to 31 his first year, 26 to 31 his second year. 22, 26 is third year, 14 of 19, his fourth year.

So he's been, in addition to being strong-legged and clutch, he's been like remarkably efficient and consistent as a kicker. Yeah, I mean, I'm just looking at the, I'm just looking at the, like the top 10 last year. Brandon Aubrey missed two. Justin Tucker missed five. Jason Myers missed seven. Harrison Butker missed two. Rest in peace.

Rest in piss. Cairo Santos missed three. Jake Elliott missed two. Matt Gay missed eight. Blake Group, whoever that is, missed seven. Jason Sanders missed four. And Dicker the kicker did a good job for Mr. Gonzalez. Only missed two.

Yeah, so what's your pick here? I mean, I guess I would, I guess I would. I guess I would take the over just because it seems unsustainable for him to go three years in a row, missing that few. Four years in a row. Yeah, four years in a row, right, yeah. But I don't feel good about it. I mean, that's really impressive. Like, Jay, you know, and he's come a long way because you talked about it.

There was a time when he was struggling when that the contract that they signed him to looked like the worst contract on the roster. Because they were not able to get out from it. And now they got a contract extension. Right. and now he's been pretty sustainable. I think the league is much better at kicking than it used to be, but boy, has he been nails? Year 8, he's going into.

Do you think there's a chance that he gets to that Kelsey, Graham, Cox, territory where you're talking like 12, 13, 14? Yes. Wow. That's amazing to think about. Don't you think they're, I don't think, I don't think they want to go through the hassle of replacing it. No, I agree with you.

And they show they're willing to pay a kicker. So they're not as willing to pay some other special team spots, but they're willing to pay a kicker. Yeah. Okay. Good stuff. Good work on the prep on this one, Zach. Nicely done. Thank you very much.

Yeah. I like this one. I like this one. Okay. So yesterday show, me a Colpa, I would change the commander's pick. I did not feel, I said at the time, I did not feel strongly about the commander's pick. But it is going to follow you for the rest of the season. Yeah.

When I work with you, I know that's the case. That, that, nothing. And I, I answered for, and anyone who reached out, and there were a number of people who reached out, I said, I don't stand by that commander's pick. That was an oversight of my part. Like, that was, I was placing too much weight on a former head coach at OC. Dan Quinn, you know, he was successful in Atlanta. Now factually, he did get second interviews, I think, in four different places last year. So he was in demand elsewhere in the league.

But no, I clearly that that was an oversight on my part. The Tomlin one, I don't think that was as like crazy as you made it sound. I think the cool thing about yesterday's exercise is that it is like totally subjective, right? when you're dealing with a coaching staff. You know, I think the position, the position ranking, the skill position one ranking, it's all subjective, of course, but there's more ways to quantify that.

You know, you can look at that the statistical output of those skill players. It's much harder with the staff. And then like I said, you don't know what like an up-and-coming coach is how good that coach is. There's just less exposure. to him.

I don't think the Tomlin one was that crazy. Maybe three was high, but, like, it certainly wasn't nuts. I actually thought the part of yesterday's show that did not get enough attention from the reactions. Okay. I got to, like, this has been like, what's the expression stuck in my crawl? Okay. You've been waiting to get off this off of chest. Yeah.

Joe Muzul ridicule. First off, you. The thing that you're so worried about is that Joe's Will didn't get enough credit? No, no, no. So you say on Tuesday's show, you say you haven't watched a second of the NBA finals. So right there, you acknowledge that you're an uninformed observer here. It would be like me telling you that, like, you know, something about the U.S. Open. And I never said I didn't read anything or I didn't listen to anybody talking about this.

Okay. Okay. So that's number one. Number two, number two here. he just won the NBA finals. He had one of the most successful, like the Celtics had one of the most successful seasons of the past two decades in the NBA.

And it's like he's this cool story of, he's someone who five years ago was coaching a small college basketball in, like, West Virginia. And he coached the, G-League team in Maine, and he kind of, you know, he gets put in this spot prematurely because of some stuff that happened as far as head coach. He grows in the role. Like, all I said is like, this is a fascinating story. You were ripping all the guy. No, no, no, no, no, no. You can't just change. You didn't say all I said was this is a fascinating story. I never said Joe Mazzula is not an interesting

story. You were saying, basically, I need to take life advice from Joe Mazzula. He is a genius now because he won the title. Like, I believe you said, I believe you said he doesn't get credit for that. Brad Stevens gets credit for that. I think that's, that's what you said. Yeah. Yeah. So I, I would just say listen to the list of people most responsible for the Celtics championship. Where is Joe Missoula? Well, players win and lose games, right? Okay. But Missouri's I think, I think in general, you have a bit of a bias toward the coach in every single. sport, which is not a bad thing. But I think you're...

I always say players win. Like, I always say players win. But you're always sort of viewing it through the coaching lens. That's not a bad thing. But like... I actually think I... So I disagree with that. I tend to view it more through the GM lens than the coach lens.

But I try to learn leadership characteristics. I try to learn leadership characteristics. I try to learn leadership philosophies. And I like Joe Mazzul is a compelling figure here, really compelling figure. And I just think that is how compelling he is. I gave the example. So this is what I said. This is what I said.

And it really outlined what the show was going to be called. Okay. Because I said that I'm sorry that this is bothering you for what it seems to be in 25 hours. I said the challenge in this exercise. is that I put a lot of credit on like established coaches because there's a track record there, but you never know if someone that they hired is the next Joe Mazur that they see promise from within. And then you were like incredulous from this. Okay. Joe Mazua, what, right? But I mean, the guy deserves his flowers. He just won the NBA finals. They lost. Yeah, he gets a ring for that. He gets a trophy. He

He doesn't mean you throwing him a parade and suck a lot of pops all over the place. Yeah, listen to him with Zach Lowe. Listen to one part of my take. Read Adam. I'm sorry, read Adam Himmel's box coverage in the Boston Globe. Like, this is a cool story. And so, but besides the point, you're not, it wasn't like you were just like, oh, okay, let's, let's, let's move on. You pushed back on the Joe Mazzool thing.

And I, I felt like, you're turning him like John Wooden. why am I defending giving credit to the NBA finals head coach who worked his way from D3, D2 basketball through the G League to winning the NBA finals? Joe Musil has this vision board that he studied that from when he was like starting in this. And the vision board was the Larry O'Brien trophy, the Boston Celtics logo, and Brad Stevens. He wanted to work with Brad Stevens. He wanted to win an NBA finals with the Celtics. Like this was before any of this was even conceivable. And now here he is.

It's an awesome story. Like you feel good for me. But that's the thing. You are now saying that I don't think it's a good story. I never said it wasn't a good story. Like the framing of him as a genius, we don't know that he's some kind of genius. You and I have a very different opinion.

On like accomplishment for accomplishment's sake, just because someone has a high-ranking job does not mean that there's someone who has all the answers that you need to learn from. I agree with that. When you literally have the answers to help you win the finals, like he did,

he had a vision board. Of course, he's the smartest man in the world. I never once said he's the smartest man in the world. I said, I used him as an example of someone who people did not know much about, But Brad Siemensdell credit in him, rose through the system. And I said when you're evaluating coaching staffs,

you don't know if there's a Joe Mazzua in there. And your reaction to that was like, And instead you went and found the Arthur Smith. As if Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator is the biggest difference maker on any coaching staff in the league. Oh, I do think there's a delta between Matt Canada and Arthur Smith. Well, I can't argue with that. I don't.

I will not have the Washington thing to my name. I will take that back. I was wrong there. I mean, it's already on there. It might be in your Wikipedia. Sunset Shads is someone who I respect a great deal. He, he had, I respond to him at 5 a.m. this morning saying, sunset shaz, you are correct.

Like, wrong there. I'm not standing by that. He used some words that I don't understand. I will stand by Joe Mazula. But what are you standing by? Like the credit that I'm giving. Do you think he's a top five coach in the NBA? I don't have the type of, I mean, it's hard for me to say that.

Probably not. Like, you know, Eric Stolster is awesome. You know, Greg Popovich, Steve Kurt. Like, there's terrific coaches in the NBA. But I think Missoula is like not, I think Ms. Zool deserves a ton of credit for what the Celtics did this year. Not as much credit as Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown. and Chris has Perzingis,

perhaps not as much credit as Brad Stevens, who was the architect of the team, but deserves like a ton of credit. And I stand by, like awesome story and the fact that they stuck with him, like Brad Stevens. And like, I give a lot of credit to Brad Stevens,

by the way, for sticking by Joe Azul. He didn't have to do that. The easy thing to do would have been the higher name. But he saw something in Joe Mazul. He developed him similar, not just the coach he is, the coach he can become and became that coach.

Okay. Okay. You're throwing him up a parade already. You don't need to do one for yourself. I'm not throwing him up for you. Literally, the city of Boston is throwing him up for it. Yeah, I know. He won the NBA finals.

Yeah. Yeah, okay. But yeah, when I listened back to the show, I was like, why am I getting shit for Joe Mazzo? They're going to, they're going to pan back. It's going to be the Celtics championship parade going through the city of Boston. They're going to pan back for the shot of the whole crowd. And you're going to be on, like, flying from a drone in the sky, just throwing

confetti down, ticker tape all by yourself? I'm not a self-itz fan, but I mean, Brad Stevens is someone I respect greatly. I actually read it. I read a quote from Brad Stevens at Matt Gell's wedding, believe it or not. But I, yeah, it was a bad, I told you this before. I don't want to butcher it, but the sentiment was he was on a flight back. He was on a recruiting trip in Orlando. and he um uh there was like the heaviest turbulence he had he'd ever been involved in on the plane

and a bunch of uh there were a bunch of kids on the plane who did a trip to dizzy world and they like put their hands up and like pretended it was a ride and he said like it's all like attitudes everything right the attitude you take in a situation is everything and that's actually something that uh like i think about often right is it is that is that your attitude's everything so yeah so that's the i read that passage just from a dan wetzel column i read that at at matt's wedding did he ask you to read that or you got to choose your on your own so this is gonna i'm gonna sound really nerdy um i feel like i'm giving away too much here um a gilb had uh sent me that that was from a column like 10 years before matt got married

and we had discussed it. And we had discussed it. And so when I had the honor of him asking to read something, and I thought it was something meaningful. And I remember that conversation that we had. That's good. And like I think he, I think I don't want to speak for him,

but like, yeah, I vividly remember us talking about it. And so then I, so then I said, I would love to read this passage. I don't think that's nerdy. I think that's lovely.

Oh, thank you. Thank you. So anyways, we are back in, I was ready to close this bad boy on time 11 minutes ago. You're the one that we needed to bring up your Missoula complaint. Sorry. Sorry about that.

Noon tomorrow. Partick Zach Bo. Looking forward to it. It's always a fun way to close the week. Looking forward to answering, to asking Bo not just get his insight, but some stuff that I want to learn more about and Bo can convince me on. So that's a little tease for tomorrow.

All right. That'll do it for this episode of the P.H.L.Y. Missoula podcast. for Julia running the ones and twos. I'm Bo. Zach, thank you for pulling this one together. We will talk to you tomorrow at noon from the studio. And as always, we love you.