PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - After another stellar season, has Merrill Kelly become a top-15 pitcher in baseball?

Episode Date: November 28, 2023

One month ago, Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly shoved in the World Series against the Rangers in what was one of the best performances of his career. Has Kelly become a top-15 pitcher in MLB? We discuss his career, take a look into the future at more free agent targets for the Snakes, and wonder if we will one day be replaced by AI after a recent scandal at Sports Illustrated with computer-generated writers.An ALLCITY Network ProductionSUBSCRIBE to our YouTube: https://bit.ly/phnx_youtubeALL THINGS PHNX: http://linktr.ee/phnxsports PHNX Events: Get your tickets to D-backs Takeovers, Knockout Nights & Suns Watch Parties at BetMGM, and MORE here: https://www.eventbrite.com/o/phnx-56002330273 Desert Financial Credit Union: Open a free checking account online with Desert Financial Credit Union and get $200 in bonuses https://www.desertfinancial.com/200Get 10% off your first order of Hero Bread at https://www.hero.co/ by using code PHNXSchedule a free in-home estimate with Empire Today! All listeners can receive a $350 OFF discount when they use the promo code PHNX. Restrictions apply. See EmpireToday.com/PHNX for details.Sign up for Gila River Resorts & Casinos $1,000,000 Big Red’s Showdown! Stay in the game and get rewards; it’s that easy! https://www.gilamilliondollarshowdown.com/Go to https://saturdayneon.com and use code PHNX for 10% off your order today. Free shipping for orders over $200!Gametime: Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code PHNX for $20 off your first purchase.Pins & Aces: Check out https://pinsandaces.com and use code PHNX to receive 15% off your first order and get free shipping.Circle K:  Join Inner Circle for free by downloading the Circle K app today! Head to https://www.circlek.com/store-locator to find Circle Ks near you!OGeez!: Score 25% off a bag of your favorite OGeez! Fruits or Creams. Go to https://zenleafdispensaries.com, add a bag of OGeez! to your cart, enter promo code “PHNX” and pickup at a local Zen Leaf Dispensary. Must be 21+. Enjoy responsibly. Four Peaks: Follow them on social @fourpeaksbrew & @fourpeakspub! Must be 21+. Enjoy responsibly. WYNK Seltzer + THC: Go to https://drinkwynk.com/ and use promo code “PHNX” for 50% off. Must be 21+. Enjoy responsibly. When you shop through links in the description, we may earn affiliate commissions. Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And welcome to the PHNX D-Backs podcast right here on PHNX. My name is Derek Montia, occasionally known as your mayor of PHNX. And I am joined by my vice mayor, the one and only thunderstick Jesse Friedman. That's terrifying. That is terrifying. The sound you just heard was my voice being cloned by AI, and it's only a matter of time until I am not needed here anymore. Welcome in to the PHNXD Backs podcast.

Of course, I'm there. This is Jesse. We're thrilled to have you. And of course, we have a lot to talk about, including some terrifying AI news. And I guess you could say some disappointing AI news, but we promise we're real people. At least I promise you, I'm a real person.

I can't speak on his behalf. Jesse, let's talk about Merrill Kelly because I don't think he gets talked about enough. I think you kind of creep people out in the chat a little bit. Have I? Yeah. I also think that for people who are joining us here on video, they saw with their own eyes that you were in fact not speaking. Correct. As those words were being said. Correct.

But there is a probably sizable group of audio listeners. They have no idea what just happened. They fully believe that you just introduced the show in a. kind of robotic sounding voice. Yeah. And that did not happen. Yeah. That was unsettling.

When I first heard that recording, I was under the impression that Derek had recorded it just trying to sound like it was AI, like trying to sound like it was a robot. And then afterwards, I was told that that was in fact AI trying to replicate Derek's voice. And yes, it does sound a little robotic, but it also kind of sounds like you. and it's terrifying. It's horrible. It's horrible.

We need to stop the computers at all cost. Forget what we said about robot umpires because it's a slippery slope, obviously. But yes, like Jesse said,

that was AI. And yeah, the artificial intelligence version of me sounds very sad. Very sad. It's soul is trapped inside of a computer just like my real soul

is trapped inside a gas station pump. But again, going back to Merrill Kelly, one month ago today, Merrill Kelly through one of the greatest games of his entire career when the Diamondbacks absolutely needed him to do so the most. Yeah, he really did. October 28th, this is at Texas, game two of the world series.

Merrill Kelly on the mound against Jordan Montgomery, D-Backs had lost a heartbreaker the night before. Some things didn't go great late in the game after the D-Backs got a lead in the middle of the game. They wind up losing Game 1 of the World Series 6 to 5. come back into game two. It's a pitcher's duel, Derek, throughout most of the game. Don't be misled by the 9-to-1 final score of Game 2 of the World Series. This was a, this game was very, very close up until the latter three innings of this game.

Meryl Kelly, seven innings, three hits, one run, no walks, nine strikeouts. You had a game score of 76, which if I'm remembering correctly is the highest game score posted by a Diamondback pitcher in the postseason outside of Kurt Schilling and Randy Johnson. This slid in right up there with some of their postseason starts that were a big part of how the Diamondbacks won the World Series back in 2001. Merrill Kelly was absolutely outstanding. And yes, we are maybe going to talk about the Sports Illustrated thing. If anyone's wondering why we just randomly started our show that way. Yeah, we got more. We got more on artificial intelligence and the Sports Illustrated AI scandal is Kevin in the chat.

asks and more on me being irreplaceable, of course. But Merrill Kelly also fairly irreplaceable for the Arizona Diamondbacks. And again, we've said this before, but Kelly tends to not necessarily get the credit he deserves at times. I know a lot of Diamondbacks fans value him. And I know a lot of Diamondbacks fans absolutely think very highly of him. But, you know, again, Merrill, you know, at times was arguably the best pitcher on this team. And Zach Allen tends to to get, he tends to get all the press. He tends to get the spotlight a bit, but Kelly was just outstanding this season for the Arizona Dimebacks.

We could take a look at his numbers this season, but his 2023 stats, pretty remarkable. And again, this wasn't the guy that was in the Sy Young conversation, really, you know? And looking at those numbers, it's kind of incredible to think that he wasn't. You had a better ERA than Zach Gallen when all was said and done. And I know talking with some other reporters who were, you know, either voting in the Cy Young race or, you know, just people who are maybe voting and other things

didn't have a Cy Young vote this year. They were like, dang, I'd be pretty close to voting for Merrill Kelly instead of Zach Allen. And when all was said and done, Merrill Kelly didn't get any Cy Young votes. Of course, Zach Gallen did get some Cy Young votes. He got a first place vote. I think he got one second place vote as well. But yeah, Merrill Kelly coming into this season, if I'm being totally honest, I looked at his 20-22 season with the three-three-season. 70 R.A. The 200 innings. I thought it was a great year for Merrill Kelly, and I was a little bit skeptical

that he would ever do anything like that again. If I'm being just totally transparent. I thought that was the best year that Merrill Kelly would ever have, maybe by a significant margin. Not that he wasn't a good pitcher, not that he wasn't criminally underrated, you know, even after just one year of doing that.

But he came back and he did it. He basically had the same year again. I mean, he basically did the same thing again, being one of the most productive pitchers in the National League and in all of baseball, of course, an ERA even lower, as you saw there at 3.25, a 119 whip this season. He was an anchor for this team. And in the postseason, I mean, there's no question between Zach Allen and Merrill Kelly. Merrill Kelly was more consistent for the Diamondbacks throughout that postseason run. He was a huge part of how they got as far as they did. And even though Merrill Kelly got that World Series stage and probably has a lot more notoriety now than he might

have a few months ago, I still think Merrill Kelly is probably one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. Just his ability to come over from Korea and, you know, be kind of a solid number four starter when he first came up and then all of a sudden turn things into a different gear and become one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. It's a remarkable journey. And he's maybe the best story on the Diamondbacks. Like, of all the players, they've had all the players who have, you know, played a big role on, on this, in this team's success, especially this season. Merrill Kelly for me is right at the top of the list. I mean, he just, he just had such an incredible season. The storylines, everything.

Yeah. Overcoming, you know, the demons against the Dodgers. You had the fact that he quietly did his job, you know, and, and meanwhile suffered, you know, some injuries, which is most likely the reason as Elise, who is a known baseball GM says, if he hadn't gotten hurt, he would have been in the conversation. Yeah, he's like young conversation. Yeah, he gets Cy Young votes if he doesn't miss those, whatever it was, like three weeks. Yeah. I believe that.

And it's rough because those were blood clots and that's actually a very serious, you know, situation. It's worse than, you know, a lot of other injuries just because of the fact that it could potentially be life-threatening. You know, it's not like his ended up getting that far along, but still something you have to be very, you know, cautious of, especially, you know, if you're an athlete like Merrill Kelly is. He also had the issues with the cramping as well that kind of limited some of his performances. We might have seen, you know, a couple of complete games potentially. There's a couple of situations where we don't know how long he really would have gone.

Yeah. I have been for the cramping. But, I mean, again, just Merrill, his numbers, everything about him, he just has been an incredible, an incredible asset for the Diamondbacks. You know, when you look at him coming over from Korea and just everything he's been able to do here in Major League Baseball, he really has increased his stock, you know, substantially. And I mean, Gabriel said it, glad we still have him. He'd be making 25 plus mil a year based on his performances, absolutely. Yeah, the debacks made a very wise decision at the beginning of last season to extend Merrill Kelly. one of the more under the radar, like excellent extensions that has been signed.

And I guess from a team perspective, from Harold Kelly's perspective, this team is very good at it. Probably shouldn't assign that thing. But yeah, he's been just such a huge part of this team here over the last couple of years. And this state, I mean, it's not to cut you off, but I mean, like, that's got to be a big part of it because he is so connected to the state of Arizona. He's played so much of his career as a baseball player here in some form or another, right? So it's like there has to be a part of him that really enjoys getting to play, you know, for this team in, in a city that he kind of grew up in. And he spent a lot of time in and, you know, just continue to be a part of Arizona's sports history.

Like that's got to be at least a small impact on him assigning that extension and wanting to stay here in the valley. Yeah, I think looking back on the World Series and the way that things went down, if the Diamondbacks find a way to win that. just gut wrenching game five, which is... Give him a game six. If you get that World Series to game six with Merrill Kelly on the mound... I don't want to do this. I don't want to do this. He's making me sick.

I do this every night. He's making me sick. I literally am sick to my stomach right now. I can't sleep. Think about if they won game one. Yeah. Do we want to think about that? I mean, we could...

What if Christian Walker doesn't miss Tony Parrishika's... Okay, all right. I'm done. I'm done. I'm out of here. I'm not doing this. I'm not doing this with you, Jesse. Not today.

What if Tony Parishika held him up instead of waving him through for as long as he did? Yeah, that's fair. Yeah, we could do a whole show just on the Tony Parishika, Christian Walker incident in Game 3 of the World Series. I do not want to do that either. Yeah, I do. Yeah, I guess to press on. Maybe not much of a market for that at this point. We wanted to talk about Barrow Kelly and everything.

that he did you wanted to talk about if you got that game six i know i i just i think we just have to acknowledge that if the diamondbacks find a way to win game five and get the world series to a game six it was advantage diamondbacks merrill kelly clearly outpitched jordan montgomery the first time through and i think if you were a rangers fan you would have probably gotten real uncomfortable if that gets to a game six especially knowing what the diamondbacks did in the previous series in the n lcs playing in Philadelphia. Yeah, because you don't let us get two, Jesse. Because if you let us get two, what can happen, Damon?

That's just the worst mistake you can make. Because then they'll get three. Then they'll get three. That's the way that that works. I know a lot of people are very angry at me at this point. I'm furious. So I'll stop. But just talking about Merrill Kelly in general again,

the big thing that Merrill Kelly did this season, and he was great in 2022. He was in my estimation, even better in 2020. because he found a way to kick up his swing and miss to a level that frankly I never expected Merrill Kelly to reach. His strikeout rate this season was 25.9%. Zach Allen was 30%. Basically identical. I think last year you would have said, all right, Zach Allen is like the strikeout artist.

He's the big time number one. And Merrill Kelly's out there just wearing them down. Ground balls, infield pop-ups. That wasn't the Merrill Kelly that we saw in 2023. he was getting strikeouts. He had nine punchouts in that game two of the World Series that we talked about earlier. And a big part of it was that Merrill Kelly

of his own accord over the offseason decided that he was going to throw, he was going to learn how to throw a slider. And he came in to spring training. I think there was maybe some initial skepticism about how good that slider would be or how big of a part, how big a part of his arsenal it would become.

And it wasn't like he was throwing it a ton, but it was a really effective outpitch for him at various points in the season, something he didn't have in 2022. I think that really added to his arsenal. And Merrill Kelly found a way to get even better even after a really impressive 2020 season. So I guess the question here that we proposed

and that we were going to discuss is, where does Merrill Kelly rank for you in Major League Baseball as far as starting pitchers go? Is he in your top 20? Is he in your top 20? Does he rank in your top 15? I mean, I would say it would probably be a stretch to say that he would rank in the top 10, right? Probably a stretch to say the top 10.

Okay. So, yeah, I was kind of fooling around with this, trying to figure out where exactly I would put Merrill Kelly. It is a little tricky because we should acknowledge that his peripherals still don't fully back up his low. 3 ERA. I think his expected ERA from stack cast was in the low fours. I think his FIP was 3.8, something like that, somewhere in the mid-high threes. So, you know, we have to evaluate him the same way that we would any other pitcher, right?

Like when I look at Framber Valdez or whatever from the Astros, like his peripherals weren't all that great this season. And I certainly take that into account with how I evaluate him. But yeah, I think just real quick, we can try to get at least some idea of roughly where Merrill Kelly lands at this point in his career. I'm just going to start listing off pitchers that I would put ahead of Merrill Kelly. I think that's probably the simplest way to do this. Okay.

So Zach Wheeler, I think I would probably put ahead of Merrill Kelly. Yeah. Spencer Strider. I know his ERA wasn't that great this past year, but the swing and miss is absolutely absurd. And I refuse to believe that he's going to post like high three, low four ERAs for the rest of his career. So that's two.

Kevin Gosman, Garrett Cole, Logan Webb. Logan Webb's close. I think there's maybe an argument to, there's maybe an argument to be made there. Zach Gallin? How do you feel about that? Zach Allen, yeah. I think you have to put Zach down higher.

Even though their level of production was similar in 20, and if Merrill does throw another 20 innings, who knows what the Cy Young vote situation looks like. Yeah. So that's six pitchers that we would put higher than Merrill Kelly. I have Logan Webb. Logan Webb. I have Logan Webb.

Zach Eflin hasn't done it for real long. but man, he was good with the race this past season. He's kind of right on the edge, but I think I would maybe put Zach Eflin a little bit higher. And then after that, it gets tough. I guess Blake Snell won the Siong Award. I know the walks are pretty ugly. I think I'd probably have to put him in there.

But yeah, yeah, it's hard not to say that he's not a better pitcher than Merrill Kelly. He just won. I mean, he just won the NL. Siong Award. Corbin Burns, maybe a little bit more stability. there's a long track record there. Their performance again in 2023, pretty similar, but I think I would put Corvin Burns.

Luis Castillo of the Mariners comes to mind. So I think at that point we've gotten to, want to say 11. And then, and so that would put Merrill Kelly 12th, I guess, if he was to slot in right behind all those guys. But even then it's tough. I mean, there's Pablo Lopez of the Twins.

There's George Kirby of the Mariners. Kodai Senga. I mean, we've only put him there. Kodai Senga. I mean, we've only seen one year of, Kodi Senga, but man, it was a good one. Yeah, I have a hard time not having Senga in my top

10 for pitchers, but that was just based on performance from last year. I think he's... Did you have Garrett Cole? Garrett, yeah, Garrett Cole is, yeah, that's a pretty clear one. Okay. So I think he's basically right around number 15. It's pretty hard to figure out exactly. I mean, we could

really scrutinize some numbers here and try to figure out exactly where he would go. Yeah, but specifically with the time that he missed, you can't compare apples to apples when it comes to some of those other guys, especially on things based like war, like win-loss record or anything like that. Sure. He just wasn't there, right?

But he belongs in like the Jordan Montgomery, maybe Justin Steele. I know Steele was really good this year, but there's not a ton of track record there. Framber Valdez had pretty similar numbers this year. Lazzardo? Jesus Lazzardo. Yeah, he's like kind of right there in that group of pitchers,

like right in the 15 to 20 range. So I think you could absolutely make a case that Merrill Kelly is a top 15. pitcher in baseball. I don't think that's an outrageous claim at this point at all. And thinking back two years to the way that, you know, from the way that Merrill was perceived then to the way that he's perceived now, talking about him really being a top 15 pitcher in baseball potentially is really remarkable.

Let's give it up for Mike Hazen, who has a knack for finding talent in places that you just don't necessarily think to look, you know? And I mean, finding deals, finding values, finding guys like this that are given an opportunity. And you pair them with the great coaching staff that they have here. And next thing, you know, you have Merrill Kelly looking the way he does, you know. And even then, like, this wasn't Merrill at 100%. So let's get Merrill at 100% and see where he ranks because based on the results, he could potentially even be a top 10 pitcher.

He could be potentially the Diamondbacks number one based on, you know, some numbers. But we'll see what happens next season. of course it's going to be fun it's going to be fun this team still has a lot to build on and a lot to add to this roster with some of the holes they have so we will be talking of course about some more free agency candidates here but i did want to give a shout out to ryan baker for his super chat ryan said with josh barfield going to the white socks is there any chance that helps with a deal for louis robert robert jrbair robert i know it might take drew jones or more but i feel like he would perfect You fit perfectly moving forward. I mean, yeah, I mean, he's an incredible outfielders. I'll drive Drew Jones to Chicago. Yeah?

Yeah. Did you see the, there was a trade proposal floating around from a white socks, something or other? An executive? Was it at least? It was not, no. Elise is far too reasonable for this trade proposal. I think some people probably saw. I believe it was Alec Thomas, Drew Jones, and U.M.N. Lynn.

Oh, no. It's not. No. I think it was for Dylan Cese, though. right yeah it was for dylan c's you definitely does not have as much trade value as louise robert so hard pass yeah does does drew jones alone get you louise robert probably not but uh yeah i i don't think i don't think you're going to have to pay more than uh or yeah i mean would you not do not use that trade that was floating around as a benchmark for anything i guess is is what i'm is what i'm

trying to say it's lies it's lies and it's uh it could be sued for slander basically is what I'm saying. I mean, maybe it wouldn't be an outrageous, it's an outrageous proposal for Dylan Seas. Maybe it wouldn't be it. I kind of hate to say this. Maybe it's not totally an outrageous proposal for Luis Robert, given what the White Sox would want to move him.

Well, and you get back a center fielder rather than giving up the two center fielders of the future for the coacher. Yeah. Right. Okay. All right. You got me a little bit more on board with that deal. That's why it makes my turn.

Are you driving the boat to Chicago? Name it. No, I won't drive alley. No. I'll say farewell. and shed it's here. Like, I don't have the heart to drive him to the airport. I can't even watch him go off into the terminal, not at all.

He's under team control through 2027. So that's four years of club control of a really, really good player in Louis Draper, who plays a really good center field, by the way. Yeah, he does. I don't know if, yeah, I don't know exactly how he and Alec Thomas compare, but there probably wouldn't be, yeah, 38 home runs this past year for the White Sox. So, yeah, I mean, does Josh Barfield go in? there have any impact?

Yes. I would know. He's a sleeper agent, Jesse. This is what we said to before. I mean, I guess does I give the white socks and like, oh, the white socks really like the D-Backs prospects now that Josh Barfield is there? I mean, Josh Barfield likes the D-Backs prospect now that he's there. Well, you don't necessarily know that though, right?

That's true. Like, when you're the farm director of a team, you kind of have to like your own prospects. It's like Tori having to like his own players, right? Finally, finally, I can be honest now. I could say what I really think of all these guys. Sucked. Yeah. I don't know.

I don't know exactly how he felt. But yeah, I don't anticipate the Diamondbacks making that tree. Yeah, well, we've talked about baseball needing some rules when it comes to free agency, right? Or some spending, right? Some caps, some caps. Some salaries. Salary caps. Definitely needs a ceiling, needs a floor.

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Restrictions apply. See Empire Today.com slash PHNX for details. And that is at Empire Today. All right. Arizona Lottery, by the way, has great, great, great options for you, procrastinators out there that wait to do your last minute holiday shopping. It's like you're sub-tweeting me. It is like I'm talking to you, but I'm not looking in your direction at all.

I'm just going to keep it looking forward. But, of course, you don't have to be a procrastinator to grab holiday scratchers from Arizona lottery. You can get them right now. I have one right here. Right here, I have it ready to go. We each won $2.50. We did. And he thinks I'm going to split it with him evenly like that.

When I did all the work of scratching it, get out of here. But there is a scratcher for everyone in your life. And, of course, they make great stocking stuffers. They make great last minute gifts. They make great gifts, period. even if you're an early shopper like myself. So go out and buy your holiday scratchers today and get some of those people scratched off your list.

But we want to thank the fine folks at Arizona Lottery, by the way, because we are now going to take a look into our, I guess you could say it's our snow globe, but tis the season for looking ahead. And let's take a look ahead here. There it is. Look at that beautiful guy. He's all ready for the holiday season. Let's take a look ahead at some free agency potential.

targets for the Arizona Diamondbacks because we know that they are going to be definitely targeting pitchers and we've talked about how important that is. So Jesse is going to tell you about Michael Waka while I go ahead and scratch off this Snow Globe Cash Scratcher.

That's going to take you a while. It's going to take me a while. It looks like it has a lot to it. But Jesse has a lot to say about Michael Waka. So we'll see which one of us gets done first. Jesse, if you will. They're really making you work for that. They really are. And that's why I'm not. That's why I'm not giving you. That's why I'm not giving you 50% of this, but go ahead.

Do your thing. So yeah, Michael Walker, a guy that we talked about briefly on Friday. We were looking for a Black Friday deal for the Diamondbacks in free agency. Kentimaeada was sort of our headliner name then. He, of course, signed with the Detroit Tigers over the weekend is no longer an option. But there are still a couple of guys out there who could be had reasonably, affordably, we think, in free agency, who put up some pretty good numbers in 2023. And Michael Walker is one of them.

134 in a third innings this year for the Padres, a 322 ERA, a 1.16 whip. 22.22.4% strikeout rate, a 7.8% walk rate. Both of those basically right at league average, slightly better than league average on both fronts. And then a FIP of 3.89. So, yeah, I think there's some evidence with Michael Waka that, like, I wouldn't sign Michael Waka and expect him to post a 3.22 ERA in 2024. But, you know, he could certainly be a solid contributor for the Diamondbacks that won't cost nearly as much

as some of the other guys that we've been talking about. You done? I'm, I scratched it off, but, yeah, I'm like seeing if I won. So, I mean, that's going to take some time to you. You have to decode it or something? Yeah, there's a lot here, Jesse. You just don't just, it's not just very straightforward. You got to find, you see, you got your little bank of numbers down here

and then you got your little snow globe, just like we have our little snow globes. And you got to make sure that those are all short. But yes, when it comes to obviously finding a holiday deal, that is something that the Diamondbacks are very much looking for because we've seen how the market has kind of fluctuated. There's been some talk about the Diamondbacks kind of being priced out of starting pitching, which I don't really believe is the case. I still think there's plenty of options out there.

None of the, if Sunny Gray had gotten four years and 110 million, then it'd be like, all right, abort, free agency, it's not going to work. Let's do something else. Let's go back. But him getting three years and 75 million. Like I said yesterday, it's more than people expected. But the guy finished second in Sy Young voting. I was pretty skeptical of some predictions he was going to go for three years and 60 million.

That's just not a contract that you give to someone who just finished second in Sa Young voting, arguably at the best season of his career, certainly one of the best seasons of his career. And has a track record of putting up, you know, similar numbers to that. This wasn't like the first time we've ever seen. seen sunny gray be good. So all that to say, I'm still not totally alarmed at the, at the prices of free agent starting pitchers. It is high, yes, but it's not, we expected it to be high. It's basically been about what we've expected it to be so far. We didn't win on that one. We didn't win. No, we didn't. Darn it. You did all that work. I know. I did a lot of work. I did a lot of work. I'm going to double check my work later just to make sure. But the Diamondbacks,

again, they have some work to put in. And another great option for them. might be Seth Lugo. Again, another guy who isn't going to cost them nearly as much as some of the other options out there. But let's take a look at Seth Lugo's numbers from this season. He's 34. So again, he's on the older side. It's not somebody that they're going to give a long-term contract to,

which right now might be exactly what they're looking for potentially. I don't know what the St. Louis Cardinals are doing necessarily, but I feel like bringing in a guy right now to fill the rotation, you know, at least for like two seasons is probably, you know, know what the Diamondbacks are looking for unless they can get a younger guy like Jordan Montgomery that they can kind of ensure is going to be here for five years plus and still be performing at a high level. Well, I don't know if Jordan Montgomery would still be performing a high level. After five years, that might be too much.

But Lugo pitched 146 in a third innings this year. He had 3.57 ERA, which is nothing to sneeze at at all with a 1.20 whip. He had a 23.2 percent strikeout rate, 6 percent walk, and a 3.8 3.3. FIP. Yeah, very similar on the on the FIP front. They are. Yeah, very, very similar. Seth Lugo, a guy that, you know, I think back in August or September looking at

free agents, he just felt like the kind of guy that DBAX would sign. Yeah. Because he's not going to cost what a lot of the other guys in the market will. And yet a 3570 RA over 146 in the third innings. It's pretty good. Yeah, there's a lot of value there. I mean, he pitched in San Diego. So it's certainly a pretty pretty.

pitcher-friendly environment. He also had an injury that he missed time with. So it was... Yeah, he missed about a month with a calf strain. Michael Waka also missed some time. He had right shoulder inflammation that kept him out for about a month and a half. So neither of these guys pitched like a full, full season worth of innings. I think Lugo made 26 starts.

Waka made 24 starts. My memory is serving me. Give me these guys. Give me this mid-3 ERA with a, you know, a two-year deal that's not going to cost the Diamondbacks a ton. I mean, right now, I feel like them slotting in at either three or four in the starting rotation is not out of the question for either one of those guys. And again, they're not on the young side of things.

But again, that's what's going to keep the cost minimal. And if they can perform like they did last year, it's a plus for this team. Yeah, Lugo is almost like the, I don't know if I love the comp of like a poor man, Sunny Gray. But he like is also 34 and also is coming off a pretty good season. So I don't know. It's a pretty bad com, honestly. Seth Lugo just became a starting pitcher in 2023.

He'd been used primarily out of the bullpen. He back at like the dawn of the stat cast era, Seth Lugo was like the guy with the curveball that spun a ton. He had like just a ridiculous spin rate on his curveball. That was a really big thing for a while. But yeah, you know, he's a little bit Merrill Kelly-esque, I guess, and that he throws a lot of different pitches and commands them pretty well and, you know, doesn't really have any kind of crazy wipeout stuff, but he just kind of knows how to use his arsenal.

At least he appeared to know how to use his arsenal fairly well as this first season as a starter progressed. And yeah, again, as I said with Waka, I don't think that WACA's 322 ERA in 2023 is all that repeatable, if I'm being honest. And I don't really know if Lugo's 3.57 ERA is repeatable. either looking under the hood at some of the numbers. I think they're probably more like four, four and a half ERA type pitchers, which makes them not ideal. Like again, you probably want the Diamondbacks to shoot a little bit higher than these guys. But from a value standpoint, I think FanGraphs has Seth Lugo getting two years,

26 million. They have Michael Waka getting three years, 39 million. That's $13 million a year for each of these guys. I guess it makes sense that Lugo would get two years and Waco would get threes, two years older. Waka's 32. Lugo's 34. But yeah, you know, it makes some sense.

Like, these are, these would be reasonable moves to the debacks to make, even if they're not the most exciting things that they could do. These guys are borderline Spider-Man pointing at each other. Pretty close. Yeah, pretty similar. You could get either one of these guys. Whatever one's going to cost to do less might be the better way to go with. Lugo, like you said, is older.

Waka brings the fact that I can make Fosy bear jokes a lot if he's part of this team, which I'm very excited about. But there's also the idea here that, you know, of course, both guys average 5.6 innings per start. Yeah. The best comp is each other. What am I saying? Yeah, they are the best comp.

You're absolutely right. But bringing in Seth Lugo at two years and $26 million versus the three-year-75 Sunny Gray was going to cost him. I know he's not the pitcher Sunny Gray is, obviously. But, I mean, that's still, that's a pretty good, you know, second. in place. That's a pretty good consolation prize, I guess. If you get Sonny Gray, get a guy with his experience.

Because again, you know, we talk about Zach Gallen being the ace of the staff, but Zach Gallen also talks about being a student of the game, and he's still very young himself, right? So, bringing in guys with experience, especially that can, you know, brush off on a Brandon Fopp, brush off on a, you know,

on Zach Gallen isn't the worst thing at all. And again, they also know the Padres. They also know the Padres. There you go. You can tell, tell all of the secrets. Yeah, exactly. I do want to say real quick, neither of these guys were good third time through the order,

which no duh. I mean, that's kind of, it kind of goes that way for every starting pitcher, but there's a pretty significant drop-off for each of them. Michael Waka had a 590 opponent OPS the first time through, 638 OPS second time through, jumps to 8.54, the third time through.

Jesse, it doesn't matter. After this postseason run, Tori is never going to let a starting pitcher ever pitch against the rotation third time through ever again, ever again. It's ever going to happen. You imagine he's just like pulling Brandon fought after like four innings with 52 pitches or something like, oh, is this not the playoffs?

This is what I do now. I'm sorry. I'm a different guy now. I'm a different manager. But thinking ahead to like if the Diamondbacks were to make the playoffs again in 2024, which as we said yesterday, I think is kind of like the benchmark for success for them going into next season, you don't want to run into the same problem that you had before, right?

Lugo and Waka, these are guys that would. give you an option, certainly a better option that the debacks had to start game four or game three. I don't know how they would order it, you know, in a seven game series. But these guys still are not ideal starting pitchers in the postseason. They're not, they don't have good numbers the third time through. They would, you know, they would certainly be guys that you would limit to, you know, four or five innings. It doesn't, it's not the needle mover that maybe you'd be looking for, kind of as I said earlier. So just just something. to think about, you know, thinking ahead

to the postseason and what that could look like. That's very fair. That's very fair. Well, like we said, it is the season to go out there and get some holiday scratchers from Arizona Lottery. A great place to grab those scratches, of course, is that Circle K. You can also fill up your gas tank, fill yourself up. You can get

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If you do, you'll receive $200 instantly an additional winnings regardless of your wagers outcome. All you have to do is download the sportsbook app on iOS or Android or visit betmgm.com and sign up with code PHNX. Deposit at least $10 into your newly created account and place a wager in that amount or more at a standard odds price. you have done so, you will receive $200 in bonus bets, regardless of the outcome of your wager. Sign up today. Use that bonus code of P HNX. Place your first sportsbook wager again through the sportsbook mobile application at least $10. You'll receive $200 instantly in additional winnings regardless of your wager's outcome. Check out the show notes for full details. And now listen to Shane talk about the disclaimer. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler. Colorado, D.C., Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming.

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U.S. promotional offers not available in D.C., New York or Ontario. Well, I don't know why we do that. I don't know because we just do it. It's a tradition, Jesse. There's lots of traditions. What we don't know is if Shane there is the real Shane or an AI-created Shane. Right? Am I right? There's no way to prove that.

And according to an article from Futurism.com, we're not the only ones who don't know anything about AI or using AI. Apparently Sports Illustrated, allegedly published content from non-existent riders with AI generated headshots. That's right. They, they AI, they generated riders. They created basic white dude writer and made him into somebody that they kind of put. it like. It looks a lot like me.

I guess. Jesse could be somewhere on that AI generated list of pictures. But there is some allegations that even the content in the articles, the written pieces were AI generated and it's hard to deny it when you're reading some of the pieces, like this one that starts off by saying volleyball is one of the most popular sports in the world. And for good reason? What? Not soccer, Jesse.

not F1 racing, not baseball or basketball or any of those, volleyball. And then it goes on to say you don't need a volleyball to practice, but it's like a good idea too and stuff. It's all sorts of weird, but basically. That statement is mind-numbingly general. Volleyball is one of the most popular sports in the world and for good reason. Everything in that particular article. That's the sentence that you write in like your eighth grade English class,

that your English teacher, like X is out in red because it's like, It doesn't say something interesting. Yeah, yeah. You're not really adding anything by saying that. Right. The Arena Group, which is Sports Illustrated's publisher, because Sports Illustrated was like not real. It's like just the title Sports Illustrated or whatever.

I don't really get it, but basically, the Arena Group owns Sports Illustrated. And they said that they were contracting a third party company called AdVon Commerce for content in order to put up these articles. And again, they weren't actually like, pieces you weren't getting AI generated like updates on the Arizona Cardinals or anything.

These were mostly like fluff pieces just added in for additional content. This one was reviewing different kinds of volleyball, for instance. And that seemed to be what fake writer Drew Ortiz specialized in was fake product reviews. So this was almost like, I don't

even know this might have been paid content by maybe partners in order for them to review their products or whatever the case may be. But they didn't want necessarily put the work into having real people test these volleyball out, Jesse. So they let the AI just go ahead and handle it. And the Arena Group and Advon Commerce, they continue to assert that only the writer's bios were AI generated.

And they did that to protect privacy. They did it to protect the writer's privacy. When we all know how Jesse does not want to ever be credited for any of the work that he does. So that's definitely tracks. But it would seem like some of the articles, again, we're definitely AI generated. And it's just terrible. You know, it's terrible because right now we're living in a world

where AI is not fully understood by a lot of people. No. We've taken up some apps. It's going to take my job. It's going to rule my life. It apps. Did you not hear the opening, Damon? Can you play the opening again?

This is not me, vote. This is an AI cloning app that I found that I uploaded an episode of our show and I requested it. to say the intro. Damon, if you would. Hello and welcome to the PHNX D-Backs podcast right here on PHNX. Oh, I hate that. My name is Derek Montia. No, I'm John. You're a robot. Is your mayor of PHNX.

I'm Derek Montaier. And I'm joined by my vice mayor, the one and only thunderstick Jesse Friedman. First of all, I could never be that subdued in my entire life. We all know that. Everybody knows that I am incapable. of talking that slowly. I mean, maybe it does, it does sound like you for sure. But to be fair, no one's listening to that podcast because you sound incredibly bored.

Yeah. It's like Eeyore. Yeah. The zero like intonation. It'd be a very dull lesson. I'm very glad that you don't sound like that. Well, I mean, that's the thing though, right? Is that that that's like, okay, nobody wants to listen to that podcast.

But if I was an AI generated person that they could throw in the background of a movie and just use me whenever they wanted to make a freaking. big crowd scene, right? I think people are already doing this, dear. Well, no, this is what the- I think your voice is showing up in all kinds of- things right now. We're useless, Jesse.

We are just, you might as well just put us out to pastor because these computers are going to take over. But this is like what actors and writers were striking against. It's one of the main things that they were striking against in Hollywood because, as you can see, I, in a matter of five minutes,

was able to find a program, pay a $20 annual subscription for it, and get myself my own intro. I'm just, that's how I'm doing the show from now on. I'm not doing the work. I'm just going to write everything out like I do in my notes, and he's going to take care of it from now on. But I think there's one thing that's not really understood.

And this is something you can appreciate. This is something I appreciate very much, or at least need to like acknowledge how important it is. At the end of the day, AI generated content isn't actually AI generated content. It's stolen. It's stolen from everything that exists. None of the AI stuff could exist without the content that it's pulling these ideas and these images from. when you upload your picture to one of those fun, you know, apps where you get to see yourself as different paintings and different cartoon styles and Pixar characters. Sure.

You know, that's one of the places it's pulling from. When it's pulling those Pixar images, it's pulling it from Pixar cartoons that actually exists. Okay, okay, fair, but counterpoint, would you be like really Derek Montia, were it not for all of the content that you've consumed over the years, Derek? Oh, no. I'm not ready to handle that existential question. You're not saying that the AI is directly just like old-fashioned plagiarizing it. Like, it's not copying stuff word for word. It's just like the way that it does things is informed by all of the stuff that exists on the internet.

You could make a case that human beings, we kind of operate in a similar way, not the same way. I'm not trying to actually make this legitimate comparison. but I'm just Saul you're watching this right Saul you can replace him now because he has like lots of articles out there and all I need to do is go to chat GPT

and ask it to write me an article in the voice of Jesse Friedman and it's gonna absolutely nail it you know that I could be about Alec Thomas's OPS in 2022 it's gonna fucking nail it and that's the way that it's gonna go so do you really want like we

what are you doing you're on the computer side this is how Desis and Mero broke I mean, I guess I am sort of making the point that AI is getting, I mean, it's doing, it's doing these things pretty well because it's kind of figured out how to match like what human beings brains do better than I hoped I would see in my lifetime. And so, yeah, I mean, it just, it happened really fast. You know what I mean? It did happen really fast, right? And I feel like in another 10 or 20 years, AI, I'm not. I'm not going to say it's going to rule the world or take all our jobs, Derek, but I do think it is going to have a pretty significant impact on how we, on how we live our day to day lives.

Yeah, because we're going to be at war with the robots and we're going to be living in, you know, Terminator, basically. That's what we're going to be doing. Yeah, exactly. Elizabeth's saying, Jesse's making me think that I don't like it. I don't like it either. You're not making me think if I'm just AI. Like, is my brain just artificial intelligence? I don't know because you're right.

You're right. The AI robot, Derek, is really good. good at something. Yeah. Like, I'll make a... It's bad at hands and spelling, but it's good at other things. Yeah, it's really bad at some things.

Like, emotions are really hard. As you could hear that. But at the same time, like, I don't know, when I was, when I was a math feature, not all that long ago, I was very cognizant that, like, you know, getting my students to be really good at, you know, the, like, just the literal operations of things, like, adding and subtracting and, you know, all of the nonsense that you learn in algebra, all this stuff. I was like, were you teaching small children? I thought you were teaching, like, high school kids.

Sure, yeah, that's fair. I was not directly teaching anyone addition to subtraction. I'm trying not to give like a super obscure example here. But yeah, like, as a math teacher, I was always mindful that robots are already pretty much better than human beings are doing the literal calculations. And what becomes most important then for students to learn is, How do we interpret this information? How do we make it useful in the real world?

How do we, you know, how do we help program some of this stuff? Because that, I mean, it's pretty clear that, like, AI and robots and whatever. I mean, computers are increasingly running the world, it seems like, on a daily basis. And they are better than human beings at certain things, frankly. Like, human beings or robots are better than me, even at math in a number of different capacities. Because we've just gotten to the point where the technology is that. good, but in my opinion, it's just never going to be able to replace what a, you know, what an actual human being will be able to do.

There is a middle ground where we meet and we partner up, right? We do the Hogan, Matro Man Handshake, which again, you don't understand that reference because you haven't had a chance to have your AI. They are familiar names now. Yeah, no. But I think that you're, that's the important thing and that's, again, going back just for instance to the strike in Hollywood and what they're fighting for in regards to limiting what they can do with AI.

They want to make sure that you're not just using us as like, you know, a basis. You know, and I'm going to take your image. I'm going to pay you $100 and then I'm going to be able to use you. And however many movies and TV shows I want because I paid you $100. I got your image. And now you're, you know, that literally is taking jobs away from people. But then you ask how valuable of a job is it? You're an extra in the background.

You are background. You're like a tree. You're like a car. You're like any other inanimate object that purpose is just to be there in the background of a scene while two actors who are the main focus, you know, act. But, you know, again, it's like when does it stop? And if we don't learn to control it now and before it kind of gets out of hand, we might not be able to control it at all, right? We don't want a terminate their situation. No, we want.

Yeah, we want a different situation. We want, I mean, I can't think like most science fiction movies, this ends poorly, right? Like, I can't think of like one where we live harmoniously. robots at the end of the movie but hopefully that's the case I still want robot umpires though and I don't care if they're AI or not they could totally steal my voice for a robot umpire and I would be fine with that just to let everybody know that but again if you want to escape the robots and the AI and all that a great way to do so to go to Heila River Resorts and casinos for a staycation it's also it also makes a fantastic holiday gift maybe for your significant

other surprise them with a staycation here in town Healer River Resorts and Casinos, no one does it better. They offer an authentic and immersive experience all about their high level of entertainment and excitement that you won't find anywhere else. And again, you can get out of the valley right here while you're still staying in the valley. And you can be gaming on their state-of-the-art gaming floor with over 800 slot machines, 15 blackjack tables and live table gaming. It can also be in the Arizona's largest casino sportsbook over there at Heelabover Resorts and Casinos. They also have dining options and so much more. Again, it's great for a night out or great for that staycation, great for a gift this holiday season.

So you do you at Heela River Resorts and Casinos. Visit play atheela.com for more details. I love Wild Horse. Can I just say that? Yeah, no, it's good. Me and Damon went there for like what was, it was like a team meeting. And we were like, this is dangerous. Don't bring us here because we're not going to go back to the office and do work.

Like we literally had little slot machines in our eyes as we were trying to walk out of that. floor. Oh, it's a great floor. It's like Vegas. It really is. But it smells way better. It does. It does not smell like cigarettes nearly as much as Las Vegas. Is that what Vegas smells like? Yeah, just as a whole, outside inside the whole city smells like cigarettes.

Again, no, the holiday season is going to hit your wallet hard. So make sure you get your finances straight and you can do so with Desert Financial Credit Union. For more than 84 years, Desert Financial has been Arizona's largest, most trusted local credit union. Dedicated

creating exceptional experiences by giving back to the community and providing financial solutions that make lives better. They can make your life better. They got me started on my home ownership journey and they can get yours started. You started as well. You can look to Desert Financial for checking and savings accounts, mortgages, loans, credit cards, investment options, and so much more. Join a credit union that is committed to giving back to the community and sharing success with its members. When you open a free checking account online today, you'll get $200 in bonuses. Get started by visiting desertfinancial.com slash 200. I could use $200 right now with how much money I spent over the course of this weekend,

that's for sure. I went a little crazy yesterday, Derek. This is wild to hear. I feel really gross when I spend more than like $100 on anything. That's funny. I think I crossed that threshold on Cyber Monday. I did not feel good about it. I felt gross after I passed my first thousand dollars.

Oh, golly. We are in two different boats. But I will say that a lot of the, that money was spend over at the PHNX Locker.com. And of course, there are still some great shirts, great options, great stuff for you guys to get over there at the PHNX Locker.com. Grab yourself a diehard membership and you will get your shirt of your choice for free right now over at the PHNX Locker.com.

So check out all the things we have to offer. Get that diehard membership. Look at that beautiful National League rookie of the year's shirt. You can get that over at the locker and so much more. You get Jesse's newsletter if you become a diehard member. You also get access to our members-rolling Discord lounge and so much more. it is the best place to be an Arizona sports fan. So come over here, join the family at PHNX over at go, PHNX.com.

Well, that's all I got for you guys. And you drop a like before you go. We always appreciate that. I mean, Gabby's showing up late, but I get it. He's got holiday shopping to do himself. I think AI Derek still has a lot more to say. No, no. I don't want to listen to AI Derek anymore.

We'll sign off. I'm going to have nightmares about that. But yeah, I am going to make the use of that year log subscription. for sure. So we'll be AI Derek will be back soon enough. You purchased his subscription? I really did. I really did. It was on a holiday sales. $20 for a horse all year. It almost pays for itself, to be honest. You can make sure to visit the real Derek Montia. I'm at Cap underscore Caveman with a K. I don't know what the fake AI Derek's Twitter handle is, but you can figure that out. Jesse's at Jesse and Friedman. Of course,

people's producer, Damon. Is that Damon dog? That's DAWG. We are Damon's dogs. Bark, bark. Got that with that time. See, I adjusted to you. Yeah, yeah, you came to me. What a change of pace. By the way, Jesse and I absolutely were tossing some bags last night at Cornell. Even though we didn't win our series, I felt like we still won. We still got more points overall. So I think we still won, even though we didn't technically win.

I guess we were like Dodgers is in a perfect analogy here. But like our overall point differential was quite good, even though we lost. Yeah. So it feels like there's a Dodgers analogy. built in there somewhere. Now there's some trust built between us. I think I got a solid partner, you know, when we go out and do these corner events.

I kind of carried us some of the, some of some of it. That felt like a really personal shot. The insult. Oh, man. The insults. Do we not remember who sick like three bags in a row at one point? Yeah, at one point.

At one point. It did happen once. Anyway, I'm not going to stand here for this slander anymore. So I'm going to wrap it up. But of course, you can follow us at P.HNX underscore Dbacks. But of course, all roads lead to at P-H-N-X underscore sports on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. We thank you guys so much for stopping by being here in the chat.

I appreciate you, as always, and remember kids. Baseball is fun, but it is so much more fun when you're a real human being and not AI.