PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Are Corbin Carroll and Zac Gallen still frontrunners for their respective MLB awards?

Episode Date: August 18, 2023

Much like the the Arizona Diamondbacks team in 2023 , both Corbin Carroll and Zac Gallen have had their shares of ups and downs this season. We take a look at where Gallen stands in the NL Cy Young race and where Carroll ranks for the NL Rookie of the Year in comparison to their competitors. We also unleash our MLB Power Rankings for this week, check in on the D-backs playoff odds, and more!An ALLCITY Network ProductionSUBSCRIBE to our YouTube: https://bit.ly/phnx_youtubeALL THINGS PHNX: http://linktr.ee/phnxsports PHNX Events: Get your tickets to D-backs Takeovers, Knockout Nights & Suns Watch Parties at BetMGM, and MORE here: https://www.eventbrite.com/o/phnx-56002330273 Head to https://factormeals.com/phnxdbacks50 and use code phnxdbacks50 to get 50% off.Go to https://saturdayneon.com and use code PHNX for 10% off your order today. Free shipping for orders over $200!Gametime: Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code PHNX for $20 off your first purchase.Pins & Aces: Check out https://pinsandaces.com and use code PHNX to receive 15% off your first order and get free shipping.Circle K: Text PHNX to 31310 to join the Circle K SMS subscriber club and get BOGO 32 oz Polar Pops! Head to https://www.circlek.com/store-locator to find Circle Ks near you!OGeez!: Learn more about OGeez! at https://ogeezbrands.com//. Must be 21 years or older to purchase.Four Peaks: Follow them on social @fourpeaksbrew & @fourpeakspub! Must be 21+. Enjoy responsibly. When you shop through links in the description, we may earn affiliate commissions. Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Still makes me worry very much about him in the midst of this coming hurricane that's supposed to just completely destroy the city of San Diego. It's one and only thunder stick, Jesse Freep. It's still sunny, Derek. I'll believe it when I see it, you know? I know, you're still skeptical. We call you the thunderstick for a reason, though, and this is why. You're kind of like a storm chaser when it comes to this thing. No fear any of you, none at all.

No, honestly, that's a real thing. I think I told you guys about this the other day. I legitimately would like go storm chasing. I would say when I was a kid, but this was like a year ago. When it's monsoon season, you know, if it's not raining where you are, it's usually raining somewhere. So I would persuade people to come with me and hop in the car and go storm chasing. Understandably, my family members were not always on board as I was.

But yeah, it was a good time. I have no fear, Derek. I am happy to be where the, you know, in the path of the, the tropical storm. It doesn't bother me a bit. All right. Is there something wrong with my mic, apparently? Jesse's good, but the student. I think there might be something wrong with your mic.

Yeah. You're not here, Jesse. Should you trade one? Yeah, maybe. I don't know. We're going to trade the mic out, but Jesse, you entertain the people right now because, of course, you're there with the team. It's any of them. I was.

Yeah. I know a lot of people, there was a lot of chatter, a lot of chatter in the Discord today just about Justin Martinez and what he was able to do last night and just how big that was for the morale of this baseball team. I think there's kind of like this element of, there's kind of this element of a bullpen that is even more important than other facets of the game in some ways. Like I can't really imagine what it does to the psyche of a baseball team when you have, you know, guy after guy. go out there in the eighth and ninth innings and really struggle and blow some games that you really felt like you should have won. I think it can really have maybe even a mental sort of effect on a baseball team. So, you know, what Justin Martinez was able to do last night, avoiding that kind of scenario when the Diamondbacks were down, you know, their highest leverage

relief arms, it was, it was huge. We back? Can Derek speak again? I think I'm back. I think I'm back. but of course one thing that we have talked about or kind of discussed a little bit has been Corbyn Carroll's kind of recent bad play right you know we knows Corbyn Carroll has struggled

at times at times he was the clear cuts favorite for the rookie of the year race but now you know as he's kind of cooled off and some of his other respective opponents in this race have kind of heated up a bit themselves. It's not such a it's not such a, you know,

front runner kind of situation for Carol anymore. I think he's still the front runner. I want to make that clear. If the season ended today, Corbyn Carroll wins rookie of the year, maybe unanimously. I think he's had that good of a season and is still in that

good of a position. But yeah, he has struggled for a long time. frankly. Corby and Carol, we're going on. I believe it's more than 50 games at this point with an OPS under 700 on the season. That's tough. Like that is obviously taken an enormous chunk out of, you know, some of his, some of his rate stats. You know, the batting averages has certainly fallen. His OPS was was near a thousand, you know, like a month, month and a half ago. And now it's in the, in the low 800s. But yeah, I mean, the good news for him is that he built such an enormous

lead over any of the competition that he can afford. He literally could afford to have two bad months essentially and still be pretty comfortably in the lead as of right now. That said, as we're going to talk about, there are some guys who are also in this race in the National League who very much have a chance to catch Carol down the stretch, you know, if they're if they're able to finish strong and if Carol's lull continues the rest of the way. I apparently am now actually back. I said a lot of nice things about Damon last night at the end of the podcast, and I take them all back, every single one of them back, just all of it. The loving him part, all of it. It's all, it's that hero blame, by the way. Yeah, I mean, you can, but that doesn't be

that I'm not going to blame you. I'm going to blame everybody but myself. I'd never take personal accountability for these situations. But another guy that's also in his own respective race that kind of has had his ups and downs, but still kind of seems to be. in the mix is Zach Gallen for the National League Cy Young. So before we get to Corbyn Carroll, which I know a lot of people are worried about, let's take a look at Zach Gallin's potential for winning the Cy Young. And before we take a look at these numbers, Jesse, what's kind of your

personal feeling? What's your gut feeling when it comes to Gallin's ability to win the Cy Young this year? I think he's also the frontrunner as of right now. I think he is. I don't think the margin is big as we're going to get into here. I think it's it's pretty dang close with a lot of guys in this race. This is not at all like what we saw in 2022 where there was Sergio Alcantra and then there was, or Sandy Alcantra, Sergio Alcantra winning in Sa Young. Now that would really be something. Sandy Alcantra was was far out in front of the competition and it was obvious for you know, it felt like months through the end of the season that that was going to be, he was going

be the guy to win that award. Zach Gallen is definitely not in that position, but I do think he is the front runner at this point. And a lot of that, frankly, has to do with what we saw yesterday. And, you know, the Padre is hitting Adam ball after Adam ball. And somehow Zach Gallen coming away with six in the third innings of one run, that very much helped his case. If he had given up, you know, five or six runs yesterday, I don't know if I would still be viewing

him as the front runner right now. It's that close. Let's take a look at the comparison and see how close things are for Zach Gallen and some of his competitors. Blake Snell seems to be one of the guys that's a favorite in this race. And as you can see here, numbers are pretty comparable to Gowan. And, you know, that ERA thing still kind of favors Snell. And honestly, favors a lot of guys when it comes to Zach Gowan, probably his biggest weakness when comparing him to some of these other pitchers.

The ERA here is what puts Snell in this race for sure. 2.65, that's obviously really good. I believe 2.65 is the best in the National League, at least of guys who have pitched enough to be in this race legitimately. So that goes a long way. ERA, I still think, is probably the most important stat. There's a lot of numbers that matter in the Sigh-Young race, but I think ERA is still the most important one.

and Blake Snell does have a decent size lead over Gowan at 265 compared to 317. You look at some of the other numbers here though, Derek. You look at innings pitch probably being the biggest one. Snell only 136 compared to 162 for Gowan. That's a really big difference. That's 26 innings that, you know, Gowan is pitching and saving Diamondbacks relievers from where Snell is not doing that. So, and I think record matters too, even though I,

don't know if it should, but I think it does. And Zach Gallen is 12 and 5 compared to 10 and 8 for Blake Snell. And, you know, the other numbers, all of the numbers on on this list, 1.26 whip for Snell compared to 105 for Gallon. That's a big difference. And then this A war that we have at the bottom here is sort of unconventional. A war is just the average of baseball reference war and fan graphs war. I just smushed them together in all of these and all of these numbers. So Gallon's at 4.2. Snell is at 3.5.

And a lot of that has to do with the fact that Gallin is thrown 26 more innings this season. And, you know, I know that we've talked in the past about this impacting Zach Gallin's chances at a Sight Young. But do you feel at all like the team success should impact Zach Gallin as far as like his running? Like the fact that the Diamondbacks are doing better, maybe, you know, over a team like the Padres that are.

kind of, you know, below expectations where the Diamondbacks are, you know, doing better and he has, he has a better winning percentage. Does that coming to play at all? Or do you think that most of the time the voters on this kind of look past that and look more at the stats? That's a good question. I really don't know the answer to that. I would venture to guess that voters factor in team performance more so with an MVP award where it's about, you know, the value that one player has brought to their team, you know, if, if that player's team didn't make the postseason, then maybe that's a knock against them. I don't necessarily agree with that.

But yeah, with Sai Young, I think it's sort of just understood as like who is the best pitcher in each league. And maybe in the minds of voters, that that's not necessarily correlated as much with which team winds up with the best record at the end of the season. So I, yeah, I don't really know the answer to that. But I wouldn't think it would be, like if the debacks don't make the postseason, I don't think that means Zach Gallen can't win the Sy Young. I wouldn't view it that.

way at all. All right. Well, we have a couple of other pitchers here that are also still in the running for the Cy Young Award. Zach Wheeler and Spencer Strider. And let's take a look at their numbers this year because Spencer Strider on a very good Braves team still continues to put up good numbers. And Zach Wheeler having another surprisingly good season. Yeah, yeah. These guys are definitely interesting. both of them have have fewer innings than Zach Gallen by a decent margin. Gallon, as we said earlier, was at 162, wheelers at 144, striders at 139.1. So I do think that's a pretty big knock against both of these guys.

Gallin has a better ERA than both of them. He has a better whip than both of them. But we're still kind of within striking distance here with, you know, maybe seven starts remaining in the season. I think the margin between Gallin and these two guys is small enough that it could be made up the rest of the way. I will also say Spencer Strider, he has a FIP of, let me find it, a FIP of 2.95, which is really good. That's better than Zach Gallen's FIP.

There's a lot of evidence that Spencer Strider has underperformed quite a bit this year with his 375 ERA. And I mean, the man is running like 14 strikeouts per nine. If Spencer Strider had an ERA anywhere close to his FIP, I don't think this race would even be close. I think Spencer Strider would probably beat Zach Gallen by a considerable margin. But as things stand right now, his ERA is somewhat significantly higher at 375, and he's thrown about 25 fewer innings at 139.1. So it's not necessarily all that close right now. I don't really see how Strider can win this without his ERA coming down significantly.

But there is quite a bit of evidence that he's underperformed this year. You know, he's going to probably be in this Cy Young conversation for many things. many years to come. All right. And we have two more guys. Logan Webb and Justin Steele. These guys also have been having themselves quite a year. Logan Webb has a similar workload there as Zach Gown with 163 innings pitched,

3.26 ERA, and that 1.07 whip with a 3.8 AWR. And then Justin Steele, who is a guy that's just had an excellent season, part of that dynamic duo there for the Chicago Cubs, 126 innings pitch. I think he missed him time. A few starts with an injury. But he's still 13 and 3, which is just excellent with that 2.79 ERA,

1.17 whip and the 3.1 AWR. So two very, very good pitchers as well. And it feels like all of these guys are relatively close, but like you said, it still feels like Zach Gallen is the front runner by comparison, at least. Yeah, yeah, that's where I'm at. I mean, all of these guys are, are, you know, we, we have them on here for a reason.

I think they all have a chance with as many games are remaining in this season. But they're pretty clear knocks against all these guys, you know, like, like Logan Webb, I think he might be one of the closest, but he's nine and nine. There's just, there's, there's too many, there's too many traditionalist baseball writers, frankly, for a guy to, you know, with a 500 record as a pitcher to win the Sy Young Award. Right. You know, I wouldn't really vote based on that personally. But that's still something that I think people do play some degree of value on.

It's going to be really hard to do that. It might not be impossible to win a Tsay Young Award with a record around 500. But you probably have to far outperform your competition and all of the other numbers. And Logan Webb, as you were just saying, is really comparable to Zach Allen and pretty much everything. The innings pitched are basically right there. Their ERAs are very similar. Their whips are very similar. Logan Webb, I think is underappreciated around the league.

I love watching him pitch. I think he was won out shy of a complete game, I believe, the other day for the Giants. So, you know, he's certainly deserving of his flowers. But it's pretty tough right now to pick Logan Webb over, over Zach Gallen when, you know, Gallon is 12 and 5. Webb is 9 and 9. And Webb doesn't really have any clear advantages in any of the other stats. And, you know, it's kind of funny because this, this is the, that makes me feel like an old man, Jesse.

Like at a time in my life, you know, if you were a 20 game winner or close to a 20 game winner in Major League Baseball, that was as viewed as a stat that solidified you as much as your ERA or any other stat, right? But, you know, with time, we learn that that really shouldn't be as important, right?

Like a lot of things, like the way the ERA has kind of gone down as far as importance, and we start to look, some of these other numbers. I know the Diamondbacks, for instance, lead the league and fielding percentage, right? They have the fewest errors in all of the National League.

But in watching this team, I don't know if you would really feel that same way. It's just a matter of, honestly, an error being kind of an arbitrary stat that's decided by somebody based on, you know, a guy's range and not necessarily anything else other than how close you came to getting a ball and how much he thinks you should have caught it. But the Diamondbacks definitely. have a lot of positive things going on when it comes to these awards. We're going to get this guy creeping by in the background.

Look it. He just fresh off of his solo TPSP. It's the one and only Mr. Electric himself, Sean DePaz. But Jesse, Corby and Carol, again, we talked about there's some concern. There's a lot of people that are talking about, you know, obviously the way that he has struggled since that injury scare. There's some questions about if he's still injured, which I am still very reluctant to believe. I just could not believe that if there was any chance that Corbyn Carroll was injured,

that the Diamondbacks would let him be out there playing, potentially further injuring himself, potentially doing anything to jeopardize his future. I just can't believe that. I don't think this season is that important to them. I think the moves they made at the Trayton Deadline kind of expressed that they weren't really willing to, like, mortgage their future to do anything for this season. So I don't think that they're doing anything with Corbyn Carroll as far as, you know,

him playing injured, which is what a lot of people seem to believe. I will believe that the injury has caused him just, you know, maybe some additional thoughts at the plate that don't need to be thought, you know, just additional thinking, which Corbyn himself in the past has admitted that when you start to think at the dish, you're already kind of dead there, right? So, like, it's got to be a process where you're not thinking about stuff. And maybe in some cases, he's just thinking too much. but I still think that this also could be attributed to the struggles that any rookie goes through after, you know, enough information is out there about them and their tendencies. Yeah, I mean, like sophomore slumps are a thing, right? And that's, I mean, the idea of a sophomore slump is like an entire season where opposing teams kind of figure you out.

And, you know, for maybe 150 games, you kind of struggle up there at the plate. This is more than a slump. I will absolutely acknowledge that. I mean, Corbyn Carroll, as I said before, it's rough. Like, he at the top of the Diamondbacks lineup is just not really providing a whole lot of offense. I do think it's important to recognize that early in the season, at least according to some of the stat cast metrics, Corbyn was maybe overperforming a little bit. His expected stats were generally lower than his actual stats for the first few months of the season.

Some of that could be sustainable because Corvin is so incredibly fast. and statcasts sort of adjust for that, but not quite as much as it probably should. So I do think he could have some ability moving forward to sustainably outperform with those numbers say. But the margin was pretty significant in the first couple months of the season. And what we've seen in the month of August with Corbyn Carroll is he's actually underperformed those expected stats by a similar margin, a pretty wide margin. So just based off of those expected numbers, there's actually. not that much variance from the beginning of the season to right now. It's pretty, there is some variance.

He's expected numbers this month are not as good as they've been, you know, in the first couple months of the season. But the margin is relatively small. I think there's some reason to believe that Corbyn was sort of overperforming and now he's underperforming and, you know, things will kind of balance out in the end. But yeah, the debacks need him to get going, right? I mean, he's, he's in the two hole. He's in the three hole.

We've seen him about lead off. He's, you know, a big part of this offense. And, you know, he was a huge part of why the Diamondbacks were so good in the first half of the season. And he's been, you know, definitely a reason why the team has struggled over the last few weeks. He just hasn't been the same. It's just funny, though, because Corby and Carroll already has become one of those guys that when you talk about him struggling, it's like, yeah, but how much has he struggled? Like, I know he struggled quite a bit at times. Don't get me wrong.

I'm not saying he hasn't. But like, you know, over here. his last seven road games coming into yesterday's start, for instance, he was hitting 317. And he's still third in the league in, you know, stolen bases and a couple of other categories. Like you said earlier, it's, it's, part of it is that he patted his stats so much early on that he's been able to maintain a lead in some of these categories, even when he's not playing extremely well. But it kind of happens to all these guys. We've talked about this year the James Outmans, the L.A. Dela Cruz,

everybody that's kind of come up and gone back down as far as performance levels go because it kind of happens to everybody when they make their major league debut and get a lot of time under their belt. But let's take a look at Corbyn Carroll versus some of the men that Damon is going to now have to fight next. Of course, Damon's biggest target, McLean. Matt McLean. That's the guy.

Yeah, that's for Damon. That is the new public enemy number. That is public enemy number one, Damon. So do your research and make sure you figure this one out because the man is almost hitting 300. Watch out. Former part of the Arizona Diamondbacks organization for a brief short period of time. Yeah, this is interesting. I think Corbyn, as I said before, I think he has, he is a clear front runner at this point.

But you look at these numbers, Mount McLean has a higher batting average, $298 compared to 270 is a higher OPS, 877. compared to 855. Really what Corbyn has going for him is volume at this point. He's just played more games. He has more played appearances than Matt McLean on a rate basis. Like if you extrapolate what Matt McLean has done this season to the number of played appearances that Corby and Carroll has, Matt McLean, I think, actually comes out on top by a slight margin.

So Corbyn, you know, starting the year on the major league roster is, is very much helping him out in this situation. And there is also merit to Corbyn having these numbers over a larger number of plate appearances, right? Who's to say that Matt McLean, you gave him another 150 plate appearances would still have an 87 OPS? That's certainly not a given. But yeah, averaging out wins above replacement from fan graphs and baseball reference. Corbin is at 4.1. Matt McLean is at 3.4. That's a difference of 0.7.

And you can absolutely make that up in a month and a half. So this one is getting a little bit dangerous. It is somewhat in the danger zone. But what I really think Corbyn has going for him is his home run number and his stolen base number. Corbin still has 21 home runs on the season. He has 37 stolen bases on the season. If he finishes with 25 and 40, 25 and 45, something like that, it's going to be really hard, I think, for voters to go any other direction with their vote. that's a pretty historic accomplishment for a rookie to have 25 home runs and 45 stolen bases in a season.

So he might have a little bit more, a little bit more leeway, even if some of the rate stats don't look quite as good as McLean's when it's all said and done. So yeah, I do think Corbyn Carroll is the frontrunner. What happens over the next 40 days, though, does absolutely matter. Matt McLean isn't the only target for Damon, though. We got a couple of other faces here that we have to take a look at because, of course, there's some guys they're just still hanging around right uh we we got james outman of course we know uh after damon you know did his thing uh he he he came back down to earth but lately has been incredible just absolutely incredible uh he has a 357 on base percentage i think he still has

one of the highest on base percentages uh in the league since the all-star break uh he's got 14 home run 51 RBI, 14 stolen bases, 2.8 average war. So still not quite close to what Corbyn Carroll's is. But yeah, yeah, I mean, there's Kodai Singa, L.A. Dela Cruz, Bobby Miller, Andrew Abbott. Like, it's very much a close race. Like you said, there is time at this point for any of these guys to just have a breakout between now and the rest of the season. and potentially not only become a threat to Corbyn Carroll,

but take away that rookie of the year that's so important to this team, right? I mean, this really is an important thing, not just as an award and achievement for Corby and Carroll, but this is something major in regards to the organization getting that draft pick. It is, yeah, yeah, that's a good point. The Diamondbacks would get a draft pick. I believe it's at the end of the first round if Corbyn Carroll finished his first and rookie of the year voting.

So yeah, there is maybe a little bit of pressure here. I don't necessarily think he's feeling the weight of that. You know, you would hope he's not. But it is for the diamond backs. I mean, it's just a fact. He's acknowledged it, right? I mean, it's, he said it's something that's on his mind and that that's something that's important to him.

Yeah, yeah. He talked about how, you know, it's cool to have the opportunity to, like, win your team a draft pick. Like, that's weird. that's a new thing in baseball and yeah you would be one of the first one of the first rookies to ever do that Julio Rodriguez of course did it last year for the Seattle Mariners so yeah some of those other names you mentioned James Outman James Outman is a player who I think he has a similar level of volume to Corbyn Carroll in terms of playing time yeah but yeah the numbers just just aren't

as good you know 2.8 war compared to 4.2 he's got quite a bit of ground and make up there the rest of the way. Kodi Senga, it's kind of difficult to compare a, you know, a rookie pitcher with a rookie position player. Sure. From a winds above replacement standpoint, Senga's average war is at 2.7. So still a waste behind Carroll. But he is nine and six with a 330 and a 129 whip and, you know, pitches in the New York market, which could work in his favor in some way.

So, yeah, I think he's at least a name to watch. L.A. D. D. Cruz, I put on this list. because I feel like we should mention him because, of course, it wasn't that long ago that people were wondering, you know, is L.A. Daly-Cruz gonna take over the NL.P. of the Year award. Like if this podcast didn't have episodes titled about that. We did entertain that question.

You know, it was good for clicks. But yeah, L.A. Daly-Cruz at this point has a 100 OPS plus. He's been a league average hitter. So, yeah, he is not at a. all in this race, in my opinion. Bobby Miller and Andrew Abbott have both been great, but they're both sitting around 75 innings pitched in their rookie season. I just don't think there's going to be enough volume there for them to factor in this

race, even though they've pitched really well. So it looks to me, Derek, like it pretty much comes down to Corbyn Carroll versus Matt McLean with James Outman and Kodai Senga on the outside looking in, maybe I have some semblance of a chance. But McLean versus Carol, I think, is what this will ultimately come down to. And Jesse, that's very good for my very future bets that I made on the Draft Kings Sportsbook app. So I am excited in regards to that. No, but I will say this.

Draft Kings does have a bantam weight battle for the belt going down for UFC 292 this weekend. I know we're not big fight guys over here. I don't know. Tommy Fams kind of changed my mind. I'm getting Nancy to see a fight with Tommy Fam now on the team. So I think I might need to turn to the UFC. He's behaving himself very much, doing a very good job. He's hitting the baseball instead of people. But I might want to see people hit people.

So Sterling versus O'Malley will fight for the bantam weight title. And I am a big, I'm a big smaller guy kind of fan when it comes to UFC myself. So this Saturday, do not miss UFC 292. Will the current champ keep his crown? We will find out. Might be the challengers time to shine. Get your bets in on the Draft King's Sportsbook, the official sports betting partner of UFC. New customers can bet just $5 to get $150 in bonus bets instantly.

So do not miss out on the Sterling O'Malley fight this Saturday. I know I will be, I have my plans locked in to watch that. So do not miss that. Download the Draft King's Sussbaum. Sportsbook app now and use code PHNX. New customers can bet just $5 on UFC 292 to get $150 in bonus bets instantly. That's this Saturday, only on Draft King's Sportsbook with code PHNX. Jesse, I'm going to do the disclaimer now.

So if you want to take a powder, you want to help me out, we can tag team, whatever. But download the Draft King Sportsbook app now. That's the most important part. gambling problem call 1-800 gambler in New York call 8778 hope n why or text hope n why 6773369 and west virginia text or visit www.1800 gambler.net in the partnership with hollywood casino at charlestown races all games regulated by west virginia lottery please play responsibly in connecticut helps available for problem call gambling call 888 787777 or visit ccpg.org on behalf of boot hill casino and resort kansas 21 and over in most eligible states but

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You get the Dobson Ranch golf card. So much more. So join us today and become a die-hard member. Jesse. it's that time. Of course, we know that the Diamondbacks still haven't really worked their way back into our Major League Baseball Power rankings. But they are very close because things are very jumbled when you get down into kind of past these top 10 teams. And I don't even know if you could say the top 10, maybe once you get down to number 7 and below. But let's take a look at our power rankings for this week.

We got the Braves still up there at number one. But to be honest, I could very much still. the Dodgers who made a big leap this week up four spots to number two, even being ranked in that number one spot, even though that they still haven't surpassed the Braves for their record, the run differential. The Dodgers have just been absolutely on fire lately. Yeah, they have. The Dodgers have won 11 games in a row. It's kind of insane. Lance Lynn is a Cy Young candidate. What else do we want to talk about? We all saw that. We all saw that. The people that, you know who were fools,

is the people that didn't know that Lance Lynn was going to be turned into a Sigh Young candidate. And right on time, it's like I say Dodgers and there's Mos Schumerit in the chat. It's amazing. This guy, he's like Voldemort. You say his name and here he is. I do. Yeah, you know what? We definitely, it was a total oversight on my part to not include Lance Lynn in our Sye Young conversation at the beginning of the show.

That's my dad. You know, I mean, I know that ERA. I think it still starts with a five, but, you know, it might be two and a half in a month and a half. Who's to say? Yeah, elsewhere on this list, Derek, I don't know. Have we read the whole thing? No, we have not. No, we have Dodgers at number two.

We have the Texas Rangers at three. Houston Astros at four. Baltimore Orioles at five. Tampa Bay Rays at six for some reason. That team needs to be just taken right off of that. Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia. affiliates and then last there on the list at 10 is the Chicago Cubs. You don't want the raise on the list at all? Is that what you say? Yeah, no, no, no, until

further investigations are done and complete, I am removing the raise from everything right now. But I can only imagine that things are not well for that team, considering everything that Wander Franco is kind of putting that organization through, I guess, with these allegations. But yeah, no, I'm sorry. I didn't mean to get you off. of course, would talk of, you know, people acting like terrible human beings. I almost used Wander Franco for the picture and decided that that was just a step too far. Probably the bad idea. Yeah, probably a bad idea.

But let's take a look here. Texas Rangers remain in that same spot as last week at number three. Houston Astros move up one spot to four. And the Orioles drop down to fifth after getting swept by the Dodgers. I imagine that had something to do with it. Yeah, the Orioles have. They've kind of just been sort of coasting recently, which is fine because, I mean, there's still 74 and 47. So I don't think there's any huge concerns there.

But yeah, the Orioles are, you know, obviously such a fun story. And, you know, they're like the least hated team in baseball. I think I saw like a ranking of that at one point, like teams that people just like the most. And like, it's hard to hate the Orioles. Like no one really hates the Orioles right now. It's just a, you know, Cedric Mullins and Adley Ruchman. you know, Felix Batista doing what he's doing at the end of the end.

What do you hate young people? Do you hate, do you hate fun? Yeah. That's how it feels if you don't like the Orioles. Do you hate stolen bases? Do you hate like Gunner Henderson? Like, you hate Christmas?

What do you? Yeah. Yeah, you also must hate like all of the holidays. If you get the Orioles, that's just, that's the way it works. But, uh,

yeah, there, I don't know if they're quite as good as their record indicates to be frank. I mean, they're plus 58 on the season in terms of run differential, which is considerably lower than, you know, the Rangers are 195. The Rays are 145.

The Dodgers are well up into the 100s as well. So I don't know if they're quite that elite level team at this point. But I mean, still, they're obviously having an outstanding season and, you know, they're in position to make the playoffs. And I think a lot of people are looking forward to seeing them, you know, once they get there and watching them once they're there. But yeah, they've dropped a little bit. A team that is not dropping right now, though.

Mariners? Is the Seattle Mariners. Let's go. The Seattle Mariners since making the Paul Seawall trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks a trade that was primarily a seller's move by Jerry Depoto. The Mariners have gone 12 and 4 since then. They are now 66 and 55. They are half a game out of the wild card in the American League.

So, yeah, I mean, the Mariners appear to be back. They really were just hovering around five. for basically the entire first half of the season. And, you know, over these last few weeks, they've started to gain some separation. Some of the bats are coming alive. And they're another team that people just like. Like the Mariners are just a hard team to, I don't, like, what could you possibly not? I mean, you hate Logan Gilbert?

Do you hate Julio Rodriguez? Like these are, these are players that are young and exciting and fun and, you know, good all the way around for baseball. So, you know, maybe the Mariners find their way into the postseason when it's all said and done. I know a question a lot of Diamondbacks fans are probably asking when we drop a power rankings like this that have, you know, teams that they're close to, like the Phillies and the Cubs on there.

Where would the Diamondbacks land? Are they just outside of this? 11th, 12th, 13th? Yeah, I don't know. Probably not, folks. Probably not. There's probably, but I don't feel like there's a wide margin of separation between them and maybe the teams that are in front of them,

and it would be easy for them to kind of continue on the pace that they've been over the last five or six games and leapfrog a bunch of those teams. But right now you can't argue that the teams, that the Diamondbacks are better than the Giants or the brewers that currently still leave their division or the Reds that are in the hunt for their division. And I mean, there's a lot of American League teams probably that would come in between there too. Yeah. But again, it feels also kind of like splitting hairs based on how close not only the wild card races for both leagues, but how close the diamondbacks are to essentially being back in the mix for one of those wild card spots.

Yeah, if I were trying to, you know, if we were extending out the power rankings and seeing where the diamondbacks landed, I think the giants have to be, the giants have to be ahead of them at this point, at least for me. The Brewers, yeah, not necessarily a huge margin, but the Brewers are ahead in the Central right now. They're eight games over 500. I think they have to be in there. I actually considered putting the Brewers at number 10 over the Cubs. That number 10 spot was tough. There's a lot of different, a lot of different teams that could have occupied that spot in our power rankings. The Reds and D-backs, that's sort of a wash.

I would maybe put the Reds ahead just because they have a game on them in the standings right now. True. But there's, you know, those teams are very similar. are the Red Sox pretty close. The twins, I guess the twins beat the debacks in a three-game series and have a better record. I'd probably put them ahead. The Marlins are maybe the one team ahead of them in the standings right now that I don't think I would necessarily put ahead of them in power rankings. The Marlins don't have as good of a run differential.

And just generally looking forward, you know, they have a pretty difficult schedule. So, yeah, I think I would probably, at the Diamondback's 16. I think it would be the front 10 that we said, and then in some order, giants, brewers, reds, red socks, twins, I think I'd have the diamond backs at number 16. But as you said, it's really close. Like all of those like 10 through 16 teams are basically like right on top of each other. So for whatever that's point.

The views and opinions of Jesse Friedman do not reflect the views and opinions of pH and X. His Twitter is. Jesse and Friedman at Twitter.com or whatever it is. Follow him there and make sure to abuse. him for his takes there. But Moe says I take the debacks in a three-game series against the Cuba, the whole island of Cuba? Oh, no, he said Cubs. Never mind. Yeah. Well, they're going to have to do that because I think they have seven games left against the Cubs and four more against the Red. So they'll have a chance to prove Jesse wrong by taking on those teams and maybe

pulling out some wins. Of course, I'm still worried about Jesse. He's still in San Diego. He refused to come home and of course I don't know what to do other than advise him to make sure he stops at Circle K on his way home. Jesse stop at Circle K fuel up at Circle K. Tell them you're from PHNX. They're not going to give you anything but maybe they'll play all of our videos for you on whatever gas pump that you're at but make sure to check out the InGAS entertainment at Circle K as well as the amazing deals don't sleep on the

Circle K branded snacks either but when I say amazing deals don't miss out on the Buy to get one free beatbox heart teas. Buy two get one free Monster Energy drinks. You can also get power aids four for $5. You'll also get entered to win a chance at a 2,023 Ford Big Ben Bronco SUV. There's that weird tier system where you have to fight Damon and then the winner of that fight has to fight Sean

after you get drawn for the, you know, winning the car. But all of that's fake and none of it's true. But you could potentially actually win a car by getting yourself some power aid. So don't miss out. on that or any of this great stuff. Right now, text PHNX to 31310 to join their SMS subscriber club and get a buy one, get one free offer on 32 ounce polar pops.

Head to circlek.com slash store dash locator to find CircleK's near you. And of course, make sure to pick up some Four Peaks at Circle K. Four Peaks beer is the official craft beer of Derek Montia. It's also the official craft beer of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Make sure to check out their Rattle on Red Ale or the wide variety of beers that Four Peaks has to offer. You can also check out the Four Peaks. draft room at Chasefield, which is a great place to watch a baseball game. Also a great place to drink some beers. It's located on the sweet level and you can actually abandon your seat

if you're not happy with where you're at and watch the whole game from down there while eating some delicious chicken tendies. So do not miss out on that. You can check out their events over at 4Peaks.com slash events to stay up to date on everything 4Peaks. And of course, follow them on social media at 4Peaks brew or at 4Peaks Pub. And you can keep up with the latest at Arizona's hometown brewery, must be 21 or older to drink four peaks. Please drink responsibly. We did reference those wild card standing. So again, let's take a look at where the Arizona Diamondbacks are because things are tight.

And that's good for the Diamondbacks. Are you still doing this, Damon? Oh, my God. My God. Those are still from last night before the game. I don't understand what's happening here. He looks at a different website. sight than I do, but I'm pretty sure. I'm fairly sure, unless a win has happened the day that the

Diamondbacks are a game out. They are all game out. Jesse's nodding. Diamondbacks are a game out. I don't trust myself with anything. So I have to make sure Jesse's nodding when it comes to anything I say. But yeah, Diamondbacks currently one game out. Ahead them, ahead of them, the Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs, all essentially tied for that final third wildcard spot. San Francisco Giants have a one and a half game lead. And then the Phillies have that three and a half game lead. Phillies have not been very good lately. The San Francisco Giants, not very good lately.

I mean, nobody has been very good lately in this race. And honestly, the Diamondbacks still very much have a chance to make up some ground here. They do. Yeah, they absolutely do. The Cubs are currently losing four to three as we speak right now to the Kansas City Royals after eight innings. So that would certainly be a move in the right direction for the Donnybacks if that happened. So yeah, there it is. Those are the actual wildcard standings.

Yeah, D-backs are one game out. It is tricky that I think the one game out is maybe a little deceiving because there are three teams standing in their way right now. Like the Diamondbacks have to, assuming the Phillies and the Giants stay in, which is granted a fairly big assumption. I don't think that's a given. But just for the sake of argument, if those two teams stay in, the Diamondbacks have to be better than the game.

Cubs and the Reds and the Marlins at the end of the season. So it's not just as simple as, you know, chasing down one team that you're a game behind. You're chasing down three teams and you have to, you have to outperform all three of these teams by a game or more, depending on the tiebreaker situation, in order to get that third spot. So the debacks are right there. Their playoff odds have very much been moving in the right direction, having one, five of their last six games.

but there's still a long way to go here for sure. Per fan graphs, the Arizona Diamondbacks playoff odds are currently 28.8%. Not the lowest point of the season, as you can see here according to this graph, but also definitely not anywhere close to how high they were at one point. Yeah, I mean, this last week has been huge. The debacks, I think they hit their lowest,

point in terms of playoff odds. I believe it was 13.2%. That was a week ago today. It's a W. Look, Jesse, it's a literal W. It's a wagon. It's a win. Whatever you want to say it is. I just see a W over the last week.

Yeah, it's been huge. I mean, this is exactly what the Diamondbacks needed. And for people wondering if the team was just going to kind of continue to fade down the stretch and never give any appearance of being back in the playoff race, that is not what has happened. And the Diamondbacks have come roaring back in this race and have very much put themselves back into this conversation after being, you know, as far as three and a half games out in the wild card just a few days ago. So they've made some huge progress. But yeah, I mean, if you're wondering, you know, where does 28.8% come from?

In a sense, you can kind of think of it as like, well, the Reds have a one quarter chance and the Cubs have a one quarter chance and the Marlins have a one quarter chance. And the Marlins have a one quarter chance. It's not quite that simple because the Phillies and the Giants aren't necessarily guaranteed their spots. But that's essentially what it comes down to. You can't have all four of these teams that are like right on top of each other, make the playoffs. Only one of those four most likely is going to find their way in there. The debacks have to make sure they have to make sure it's that. One thing they have to make sure is that they win this series in San Diego with Jesse bringing them all the good luck in the world while he's there.

So let's take a look at the probabilities once again. we still don't have an official starter for the finale in this series, but we have basically pondered if we could see Zach Davies in the spot, and it sounds like that's a very good possibility. Yeah, I think things are trending in that direction for Sunday, but again, things are also trending in the direction of San Diego getting copious amounts of rain and us not being able to play that game. And that game turning into the first rainout.

I thought you didn't believe, Jesse. I thought you didn't believe. Yeah, well, I still read articles. You know, I still have some degree of respect for the National Weather Service or whatever it's called. So, yeah, we'll see. You know, I will only believe it when I see it. But that is what the reports say. We'll see if we're actually able to play the baseball on Sunday.

I do think there's some degree of risk, at least according to, you know, what the National Weather Service is saying. I think there's some degree of risk for the Saturday night game as well. Things seem to be a lot more favorable. for playing that game. But, you know, I'm told that tracking tropical storms that are 500 miles away is difficult. So we'll see how this thing you shake out. Just like the way that we haven't perfected learning how to hit a baseball, we still haven't perfected the whole, you know, knowing what the weather is going to do thing.

I do also think that there was some talk on a, I got a weather alert about that hurricane impacting us here in Arizona. So interesting to see. Did we lose Jesse or is he still with us? He's barely still with us. He's barely still with us. Well, I don't know. Am I not actually here?

Yeah, well, the weather's starting to come for you early, Jesse. It's because they heard the things you were saying about it. Yeah, yeah. Oh, that's terrible. You look terrible. Yeah, no, I don't want to talk to you. anymore. Get him out of here, Dammit. Jesse, we'll see you later. But anyway, we'll get you guys some updates from Jesse while he's there in San Diego. But make sure, of course, to follow him

because he will be talking to the Arizona Diamondbacks after tonight's game, and he'll also be there tomorrow and Sunday. So Michael wants to know, did the hurricane take Jesse? And that might happen that might have happened but uh i'm pretty sure he'll survive he's he's a tough kid i've seen him be i've seen him being bigger better storms than this so he'll be fine but uh i don't know if he has a shady raise i'm not sure if he will need a shady raise he's he back is this jessy back no no is he i never honestly thought i left oh yeah no okay yeah maybe you can't hear me no i can't hear you i can hear you it's just there's a delay but we're good we're fine uh did you have any more updates before before we let you go I did want to mention Gino Groover real quick.

Yes. Diamondbacks draft pick from just a few weeks ago. He's had quite a bit of success so far in the minors. I believe D-Backs started him down in rookie ball. They sent him up to high A. So he's up in Hillsborough right now. And he has started nine for 20. That's a 450 batting average.

And there have also been some reports out about some of the sort of underlying stats that he's had so far. Obviously, it's a really small sample size. But yeah, something along the lines of his 90th percentile exit velocity being exceptionally high. He's these are not cheap hits. He is genuinely raking. We'll dive more into this on a future show. But I just wanted to point out, Gino Groover is really off to a hot start. There are some questions about his future defensive home. That's something we'll have to monitor. In terms of the bat, the early returns there are extremely promising. All right.

Well, I still think the storm is coming for you. So we're going to let you go. But appreciate the update. And drink plenty of waters. Stay safe while you're out there. Save Jesse. Everybody's worried about you around here, pal. Everybody's worried.

Hey, man. I might be here till, you know, Tuesday or Wednesday. That sounds like a bullshit reason for you to go hang out on the beach is what sounds like to me. I don't know what. I do here till next Saturday. Who knows how long it'll be. I do have your location on my iPhone, so I will be tracking you at all time. So stay safe and no, I know your position wherever you're at.

Who gave you location? That sounds, I don't remember approving that. You happen to my phone at some point. You leave your phone and locked around. There's a joint way too much. But all right, we'll see you on Monday, pal. All right. Hopefully, fingers crossed.

We'll see him on Monday. If you want to be like Jesse and go check out a road game, I can't recommend it enough. I'm not knocking Chase Field, but there are some beautiful ballparks within a very close distance. Damon and Sean almost took the trip out this weekend. But then, you know, Hurricane thing. They were kind of smart about it. They looked ahead at the weather reports decided against it. If you ask Sean, it's because I'm a bad friend.

Well, that's also true. I mean, there can be bad weather and Damon can be a bad friend at the same time. Sure. Those things aren't mutually exclusive. But I will say that if you do go to an away game and you decide to do it maybe last minute, the best way to get your tickets is by going over to GameTime. Game Time not only has an aesthetically pleasing app, but Game Time will hook you up when you make those last minute decisions with your friends

to go watch a sporting event. I know that my trip to Wrigley Field was transcendent. It was one of the best decisions I ever made, and it was absolutely a last minute decision between me and Mr. Megaran, a Mailbag Monday song guy. So anyway, make sure to check out Game Time, it is for procrastinators and it is for those of you that get FOMO and don't want to miss out on some great concerts, shows, or events. You can snag the tickets without the stress with GameTime.

Download the GameTime app, create an account and use code PHNX for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem code PHNX for $20 off. Download GameTime today. Last minute tickets. Lowest price guaranteed. Damon, Moe's asking, when will you guys have a live caller segment so I can yell Derek on air? You do that through the DMs on Twitter enough, Mo, as it is.

So I think we're good on that. But another couple of things you can do if you do go on a trip to San Diego to watch a Diamondbacks game. Get yourself some shady rays, of course, because it's very sunny, even during a hurricane. Jesse was bragging about how sunny it was there. Even during a hurricane, you need some good sunglasses. So make sure to pick up sunglasses built to last by an independent sunglasses company that makes a product that is absolutely as good as the more expensive brands and has an even better broken and replacement plan,

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We all break our sunglasses. We all lose them. And that's the reason why this replacement plan is one of the best things you can get when it comes to a pair of sunglasses. You can shop their entire collection here in town at Kierland Commons. And of course, if you don't love your Shady Raise,

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Peeley loves to wink And when I say that, I don't mean with his eye Because if you ever see him do it He's really awkward and bad at winking Like, how hard is that? It's just wink, it's a wink with one eye But this is a wink with a Y instead of an eye And it is a seltzer with a wink of THC

No alcohol, no calories, nothing like that It's just a perfect THC CBD balance And with a little wink of THC in there That equal dose provides THC of CBD with THC provides it a very laid-back experience, a very enjoyable experience. And of course, if you are new to THC and you're not sure how much you want to try, how much you want to dip your toes into the waters of trying an edible or trying to drink like this, wink is the perfect drink for you.

It's balanced, light, and social. No third-party producers. Wink is made in-house with zero-calorie sugar alcohol. And it tastes like your favorite refreshing flavored salter. So you can get them in the 2.5 milligram or 5 milligram cans, and you can find Wink right here in Arizona. Look for Wink at all Sunday Good dispensaries in the Valley and Botanica dispensary in Tucson. They're now in 12 states nationwide and even recently launched online ordering and home delivery to about a dozen others. So to find the fastest way to get your hands on one, go to drink wink. That's WynK.com.

And that's all I got, folks. Diamondbacks have a big series with the Padres. but as we have said and will continue to say every game, every series is important from this point until the end of the season because we are, it's playoff time, baby. The Diamondbacks have to win as much as possible. So make sure to follow us on Twitter. In the meantime, I am at Kappa underscore Kman with a K. Jesse is at Jesse and Friedman.

Damon, of course, is at Damon Dog with DAWG at the end, and we are Damon's dog. You got to bark when you follow them. It's mandatory. Thank you. Also, you can follow our show at PHNX underscore D. debats, but all roads lead to at PHNX underscore sports on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. Again, we appreciate your time, except Mo, I don't appreciate your time ever, but I appreciate the

rest of you guys, all of you. We love you all. We thank you for your time. And remember kids, baseball is fun, but it is so much more fun when Corby and Carroll remains the frontrunner for the rookie of the year.