PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Are The Diamondbacks At Risk Of MISSING The Playoffs?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Is it over for the Diamondbacks after a bad series against the Dodgers, or is it just a bump in the road on the way to the playoffs. We're going to talk about it. It's another edition of Southwest Biance. Get that stuff out of here. It's Southwest Biance. As always brought to you by our friends over at Desert Financial Credit Union, Arizona's number one credit union named by Forbes.

Starting point is 00:00:23 And if I'm going to talk Diamondbacks, I might as well bring the whole Diamondbacks crew from PhNXD backs. I've got Derek. I've got Jesse. And even behind the Mac, I've got the dog. Damon dog, bark, bark. We are all here and we are talking Diamondbacks. Unfortunately, I wish it was under better circumstances, Jesse,

Starting point is 00:00:40 because not the hottest weekend for the snakes, was it? It was not. No, the Diamondbacks lose three out of four to the Dodgers. And especially the Monday game was very pivotal. It was not only the difference between being four games behind the Dodgers in the division versus six games, which is where they are now. But it also was the defining game in the season series between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers. So the Dodgers win the season series.

Starting point is 00:01:04 They also hold the tiebreaker. You know, the D-BACs probably would have had to win three out of four in order for the division race to look compelling. Obviously, they were not able to do that. But by losing three out of four, they've also put themselves in a bit of a precarious position. I mean, they're still in certainly in a good spot to make the playoffs. I think Fangraphs gives them something like an 85% chance to make it. They're still in a pretty good spot, but they're cushion on the New York Mets in the

Starting point is 00:01:30 wild card races down to three. games. So things definitely got a lot more interesting over the weekend. Is it panic time, Derek? Are you sweating a little bit? I would be panicked if for some reason this was like the Diamondbacks at 100% with Catele Marte and Christian Walker, maybe just a little bit. Even then like Jesse said, the 85% chance of making the playoffs still does not cause me to panic. It's the Dodgers. You want to beat the Dodgers, but I think that the thing that the Diamondbacks deserve more credit for is actually how good they've been in the absence of Gabriel Moreno, Walker, and Marte, right?

Starting point is 00:02:06 Like, we're disappointed that they lost to the Dodgers, and they did have a chance there on Monday to split the series and kind of even out the way that those first two games went. However, you got to give credit where credit is due. This team is down some of their biggest offensive threats, and they've stepped up, and they've still, you know, been very good over this stretch without those guys. I think this is just a case of it catching up to them. The Dodgers offense was very good. the starting pitching for the Diamondbacks was bad in this series.

Starting point is 00:02:32 And I think if you're talking about anything that concerns me right now, it's, it's that. It's the starting pitching. Well, and I think you make a good point of like, hey, there are positives or negatives to take with it where, yeah, this is a team that's been battling through various injuries throughout the entire season. And on top of that, you finally get your starting rotation back more or less. And it's not working out the way that you wanted to work out.

Starting point is 00:02:53 But Jesse, you can talk about like, hey, listen, you're down three of your best players. offensively and defensively in Walker, Marte, and Moreno. And your starting pitchers were, let's say, leaving a lot on the table, a lot to be desired. And sure, you drop three out of four, but you were in a majority of these games. And your offense was still able to carry, including the one win of the series, putting up 14 against the Dodgers who waved the white flag, about three innings in. So there is some hope, right? There's something good to take away from that. Yeah, absolutely.

Starting point is 00:03:26 I mean, the offense continues to put up runs for the most part. I mean, I know it was, you know, they lost by five runs on Monday, but they still scored six in the game, right? Like six runs against the Dodgers, you still generally feel good about that. And even over the course of the entire series, I mean, the Diamondbacks, I think if you go, even the entire homestand with the Diamondbacks going two and five total between their series against the Dodgers and their series against the Mets, they scored the exact same number of runs as the Mets. and Dodgers combined in those series. They're still scoring a lot of runs.

Starting point is 00:04:00 They average more than six runs per game on this homestand. But I think the issue for them, going back to what you guys were saying earlier, is the starting pitching and the fact that, you know, Merrill Kelly was the last guy to return for them. He came back on August 11th. The Diamondbacks rotation has been completely whole ever since Merrill came back on August 11th. And yet this rotation has an ERA of 5.56 since Merrill Kelly returned on that day, that's worse than it was before. And the Diamondbacks on the season now have the third worst starting rotation ERA and all

Starting point is 00:04:33 of baseball. In a lot of ways, it's, it's remarkable that they're still in a pretty good position. I mean, it's not really normal for a team to have a starter's ERA of nearly five and still find a way to be in, you know, a good spot to make the playoffs come September. Damon, is this as simple as, hey, just get your pitching together and this is a team that is a force nobody wants to see in the playoffs or does it go deeper than that? I mean, I think they have the bones of a team that can have a deep playoff run. We saw it last year.

Starting point is 00:05:01 I think we talked about it a lot last year. Like you have the front line starting pitching. You have a deep lineup. You have a good defense, good base running. Uh, uh, proven manager, I'd say at this point, but you need those front line starting pitchers to pitch like frontline starting pitchers or you're not going to be successful in the postseason whatsoever. It's funny he brings up the manager. I was actually going to ask you about that.

Starting point is 00:05:23 I was just going to say, can you imagine how Diamondbacks fans. would have reacted to Tori Lavello giving up on a game the way that Dave Roberts did in that game three, right? Like they already at times come for Tori quite a bit when it comes to things like that. And it is because as a manager, you have to worry about your bullpen and you have to worry about the games going forward. You can't just worry about that particular loss. So as much as it might drive fans nuts that a manager would do that. I mean, you see your team getting blown out. It doesn't make much sense to leave your guys out there. If you can figure out, hey, let's just, just weighed the white flag on this one.

Starting point is 00:05:58 The way the Diamondbacks have been scoring, though, they shouldn't waive the white flag on any game. I mean, that's why in game one, the score ended up being 10 to 9. The Diamondback scored the majority of those runs late, and they were able to make a game of it. This team has led the majors with 17 games this season of scoring 10 runs or more.

Starting point is 00:06:14 And that's something impressive, and that makes this offense not a fluke. This isn't just, oh, hey, every once in a while, they score a lot of runs. No, this team is an offensive powerhouse. It's just right now a matter of getting the, the pitching right for especially on the starting pitching side and you do have pitchers that have proven themselves to be locked down really really good pitchers but are just struggling you would maybe

Starting point is 00:06:36 think hey give them some more time adjustment period before the playoffs and that can correct itself i do want to go back to tory and the managerial part of it and i'm going to pose this to all of you you but bouncing it back to you first derrick i am more of a casual diamond backs fan than you three here who are in the weeds every single day doing post games doing live shows and everything. I've seen a lot about how Tori has handled this bullpen, Paul Seawald, and fans not being thrilled about that. Is that a frustration that you share or see where they're coming from?

Starting point is 00:07:10 Maybe at times, maybe a little bit, but I will say that I personally have seen the progression with players that Tori has taken his time with and given them opportunities and how that has basically transitioned over into, of them playing very good baseball, right? And so it's easy as a fan or as a talking head like us to sit here and yell about Tori making the decisions that he's making. He still sees a lot of value in Paul Seawald. And I know that's hard for somebody, for a lot of people to see that, but he still sees it, right? So in his mind, he's trying to get Paul Seawald back to a point where he was.

Starting point is 00:07:48 This is the fluke of Paul Seawald is more of the way he's performed lately, not that he's now a bad pitcher in Tori's mind. Tori does give his players maybe to a fault that kind of opportunity, that amount of respect when they've performed in the past and prove to be a guy that can handle those opportunities at a major league level. I will say that there are sometimes, though, like, I don't, my thing that drives me nuts is when Tori approaches a game differently with who he's going to use, for instance, out of the bullpen based on if they're up or if they're down.

Starting point is 00:08:21 And I think that's silly because, like I said earlier, the way this offense has played, you, you're not really down when you're down by one run. So you shouldn't manage the game differently because you're down by one run. You should try to keep it at a one run deficit as much as possible because your team is going to probably turn things around in the next two innings. And that's the way that that's what's frustrated me about Tori as manager. Are you sharing the same feelings, Jesse? Are you coming at it from a different perspective? I think I understand where people are coming from for sure when they talk about Tori and in his managerial story.

Starting point is 00:08:54 I mean, I go to Friday's game was one in particular that people were not happy with. D-backs were down by a run. And in a key spot in the seventh inning, Tori goes to Paul Seawald as opposed to Kevin Ginkle, who had been warming up earlier in the game. And what really made it a bad look is that Kevin Ginkle still wound up pitching in the game a couple of innings later when the deficit had grown to five runs for the Diamondbacks. It was like, well, if you were going to use him anyway, why didn't you use him in the more important spot. And that that game I do understand where people are coming from. There are some nuances there

Starting point is 00:09:28 that we touched on in Friday's post game show where the debacks were shorthanded in the bullpen. I think Seawald was probably going to pitch at some point in that game no matter what. So even if you did go to Ginkle in the seventh inning, you probably would have been going to Seawald in a potentially higher levered situation later in the game. But yeah, we do see Tori in general operate in this sort of paradigm where we're either up or we're down. And if we're up, we're going to use the high leverage guys. And if we're down, we're not. We're going to go to the others. And unfortunately, for the Diamondbacks throughout most of the season, there's been a really big gap between their high leverage relievers and some of

Starting point is 00:10:06 those other guys who are kind of filling those middle innings for them. And it's led to, you know, a one run deficit turning into a three run deficit or whatnot or a five run deficit, as was the case on Friday. So I do understand the criticisms, I think, especially in a series of, against the Dodgers. You know, we touched earlier on kind of how important this series was for the Diamondbacks, especially, you know, if they were going to win the NOS, it probably had to start with a better showing over this past weekend. And yeah, you could make a case that Tori should have been more aggressive with his bullpen

Starting point is 00:10:38 usage specifically in this series. I don't think anything he did was egregious necessarily, but I see where people are coming from and I think it's a fairly valid argument. So we'll take a break in just a second. and I do want to get Damon's opinion in all of this because I think you both have made very interesting points just about how a manager kind of has to walk that tightrope as well as far as believing your players,

Starting point is 00:11:00 especially in a sport like baseball where, you know, there's very, very streaky players just in general. Even some of the best, Corbyn Carroll, NL player of the month, wasn't playing like that at the beginning of the season, right? But you have fake in him and you put them in spots where you continue to ask him to succeed. Damon, you mentioned earlier that this team has the bones of a good playoff team, a team that can make a,

Starting point is 00:11:21 deep run. And last season, a huge part of that was Tori Lavello pulling the strings. Do you still feel confident that he can be the same guy to make the right decisions in those moments to get the best when the pressure and the leverage is at its highest in the playoffs? You know, I think with Tori last year in the postseason, it really felt like he was King Midas, where every single decision he made was just the perfect call. He can do no wrong. A hundred percent. It was pinched hitters. It was pinch runners. Every, every move he made was working out the right way for the Diamondback. And that's a lot of time what you need in the postseason. You need luck on your side.

Starting point is 00:11:55 You need momentum on your side. My problem is, I don't have problems with Tori believing in players. I think that that's what makes him the manager that he is and it makes him why players want to play for him so bad. But my issue is more so with when you see Paul Seawald, I believe he's 34 years old. He's throwing at a lower velocity than what he was last year. He's not locating his fastball very well. His command used to be, you know, the reason that he was the pitcher that he was. Now he's putting it more in the middle of the plate, throwing 91 mile per hour fastballs.

Starting point is 00:12:27 Like, this is a guy that feels like he could be on the downturn of his career to me. And that's where I think you have to be a little bit more cut throw. Because I understand it with a Corbyn Carroll comes off a rookie of the year, year. You need that. You need him to figure it out if you're going to reach your ceiling. But to me, it feels like a guy like Paul Seawald is he's now on the downturn of his career. and it's time to be cutthroat about that kind of decision. Yeah, you'd be put in tough spots.

Starting point is 00:12:52 I mean, that's why you get paid a lot of money. That's why you're a manager of a major league baseball club, right? You have to be put in this position where this is a guy who was so critical to you reaching the World Series less than 365 days ago, you know? I also think what Torres is a team. I've said this on our show, but I think that that's more of an encouraging statement for Paul Seawald to get Paul Seawald confident in himself. but his actions clearly have been that he's going with Justin Martinez, late in games and high leverage situations. So despite the fact he says he wants Paul Seawalt in that role,

Starting point is 00:13:26 right now the man in that role is Martinez. And it's the guy who rightfully should be in that role based on the performances he's had this season. Sure. I mean, listen, managing any sort of team is not easy, especially one of the diamond backs where there's so many moving pieces and parts and there's highs and there's lows. It's all over the place. Sometimes it's just hard to make the right decision.

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Starting point is 00:16:14 over at desertfinancial.com slash 200. Okay, well, we talked about this team and the Diamondbacks. We talked about what played them against the Dodgers, what's kind of plaguing them at this moment. But let's take a wide-scale look at not only the NLS race, but the wildcard race as well, Jesse. After the series against the Dodgers, is it safe to say six games back from the NLS lead

Starting point is 00:16:35 with about what 24 games to go in the season? That's pretty much out of reach at this point, right? Yeah, it would take a small miracle. Not a small miracle. It would take a rather large miracle at this point. Yes. And so if that's out of reach, Derek, but the playoffs are still in there, there's no reason to just check out after the series. Right?

Starting point is 00:16:57 Like there's still very much every single game matters. Every single win matters. Right now the Cubs are playing incredible baseball. I mean, they seem unstoppable at this point. They are about as far back in the, from the wild card as we are in the division. And yet for some reason, that seems way more scary than the idea of the Diamondbacks catching the Dodgers in the National League West being a possibility. The Dodgers don't lose a lot of baseball games. And at this point, I don't even think that that should be the Diamondbacks main concern.

Starting point is 00:17:25 Their main concern needs to be getting to the playoffs. And again, they have played some really good baseball with the components they've had. But they will be getting Cattel Marte and Christian Walker back here shortly. And I think when they get those guys back, you'll see this team kind of running a bit more on all cylinders. I also think like honestly after watching this series, Gabriel Moreno is missed more than ever. And it's not just as bad. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:17:47 He's doing behind the plate. The Diamondbacks have that to look forward to. They have guys coming back. But they still have to weather the storm right now. They have to get through this stretch. They play, I think they have two more series with the Giants, two more series with the Brewers.

Starting point is 00:17:59 They do have a series with the Rockies, which again, that's kind of a trap in there because the Rockies, once again, have been playing good baseball. You don't want to, again, look at like this stretch of teams that, like the Giants and the Rockies who are kind of out of the playoffs and take them lightly. This is where the Diamondbacks need to win games and they finish their season with a very tough series against the Padres. And that's the team who they could end up playing when the playoffs come around.

Starting point is 00:18:23 So we could be seeing basically like three games and then another three game series right away in the playoffs with the Padres. So let's set the scene right. National League Wildcard race. The Padres are in that first wildcard spot 79 and 61, three and a half games up. Diamondback 77, 61, two and a half games up in the Braves. 74 and 63, just a half a game above the Mets, three and a half above the Cubs. Now, out of all of the teams that are either in the wild card race

Starting point is 00:18:49 or again, below the wild card race, the die-and-backs have the best run differential by far. It's 92 to the next closest is 70 with the Padres. And like you mentioned, Jesse, this offense has been absolutely electric at so many different points this season throughout missing so many players. And being in the playoffs is the number one goal

Starting point is 00:19:08 because what you saw last year was it didn't matter that the Dodgers won the NL West. Right? Who went farther in the playoffs? Once you hit the postseason, it's, listen, everything is up in the air. All you have to do is get in. You just have to get in through the door and the rest is up to you. And I remember mentioning this on one of the last Dynambacks post game shows I filled in on, but having some rest for your players like Cotel Marte,

Starting point is 00:19:32 even though that's hurt his MVP candidacy, which is really hard. but if you look into the postseason into the future, he's going to have some fresh legs under him. If he comes back fully healthy, same thing, Christian Walker, same thing with Gabrielle Moreno. Those are three players are going to rely on heavily. Damon,

Starting point is 00:19:47 it's not a far stretch to think that if the Diamondbacks find their way into the playoffs again, which they are poised to do, that this could be a team that is almost reminiscent of last year where they put it all together at the right time because the story with the Diamondbacks has been some pretty low lows, countered with some pretty high highs.

Starting point is 00:20:04 Yeah, and I think the one major, pushback I'd have on that is that Merrill Kelly and Zach Gowan were pretty automatic all season last year. Yeah. Like you went the back end of the Diamondbacks rotation last year might even have been worse than it is this season. Both pretty bad. True.

Starting point is 00:20:19 But I think honestly like the run we've had from Ryan Nelson recently. Yeah. That's better than any run that Ryan Nelson or Tommy Henry had last year. I mean, it's more about getting those guys up to snuff that we talked about it earlier. But I mean, they were automatic, like I said last year, pretty much. felt like every time gallon or merrill was on the mound it was a debacks w this season hasn't been that way and if we're going to if the diamondbacks are going to have a big postseason run they that is a necessity it's so integral to to that that run ryan nelson feels like the automatic

Starting point is 00:20:53 w lately there we go what a sentence right pictures right although they did they did still lose his last start against the met's but he did pitch very well in that game absolutely i think he lost his raised start as well where he gave up like one or two runs in that game. Yeah, he's not getting the run support he deserves. But it is kind of wild to think that Brandon fought and Brian Nelson have been the real one two punch for this team while Merrill Kelly and Zach Gallen have been inconsistent at best. Zach Allen, though, has really shown that he that he's back. It's just it's this weird thing with his fastball command.

Starting point is 00:21:24 And I mean, even in that last start that he had in this series, he was not, it wasn't that he was awful the whole time. It was just, he started off really bad and it took him a while to get things on track. When he was good, though, in that game, he was amazing. And, I mean, it was it was the Zach Gallen you would hope to see all the time and that we have seen consistently over his career. And I think that's such an interesting dynamic considering this is an off season where, you know, Diamondbacks fans, media members. You know, they are like, wow, look at the money that's being invested in the starting pitching rotation. This could be one of the best pitching rotations in the MLB. If you just look at it, who are they bringing in in this offseason?

Starting point is 00:22:05 Because you already have Merrill, you already have Zach. Then you had Eduardo Rodriguez. And you also had Jordan Montgomery, which obviously that has gone completely off the rails as well. You know, like, it's interesting to sit back and be like, hey, it's actually the offense that throughout all of this has carried it. And even once you get past the injuries, the starting pitching has been leaving a lot to be desired. And so is that? I'm going to just ask one thing from each of you. the biggest key for the diamondbacks to not only have a successful end of the regular season,

Starting point is 00:22:32 but to make a deep run of the playoffs. I believe, Damon, you can correct me if I'm wrong, but that is Zach and Merrill being aces like they were last season. Yeah, for me, that's just what it comes down to. I trust the back end of the bullpen, the high leverage guys. I trust the lineup. I think if they're healthy, like with Gabby and Christian Walker back, I trust the defense, even though it's been pretty rusty recently.

Starting point is 00:22:53 But, yeah, to me, it's just about those starting pitchers and whether they can they can play like how we know they can they can pitch is that the biggest key for you jesse yeah i think it has to be i mean it's really it's really tough to keep doing what the diamond backs have been doing for a lot of the season which is winning games despite lackluster starting pitching um but at the end of the day i mean i look at a list of of zach gallon and maryl kelly and edwarder rodriguez and ryan nelson with what he's done lately and brandon fought and i see a lot of talent there and and i think for me, that's the reason why, you know, looking at the Diamondbacks roster compared to the Mets roster, to the Cubs roster and, you know, the amount of ground that those teams would have to

Starting point is 00:23:34 make up, you still feel pretty good about this team's chances in the long term. I think they're, I think that this, this starting group is going to figure it out. Maybe not all five guys, you know, I mean, with, with Merrill and Eduardo in particular shoulder injuries are scary. We talked about it throughout the season. You don't know what you're going to get necessarily when guys come back from that, but you get the sense that, you know, at least one of those guys is, is going to, you know, find a rhythm sooner or later. But, you know, we'll see what happens. We've got a few weeks here left to go. Making it a triple Derek.

Starting point is 00:24:04 That's your biggest concern. I mean, my biggest concern is that the Arizona Diamondbacks are never, ever going to spend money on starting pitcher ever. And I mean, honestly, when you look at what's happening and how this is gone for them, you can see a case why there are teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and the Miami Marlins that don't really ever want to invest. best big money in their players. It feels like you're going to have a guy like Ryan Nelson or Brandon Fott that comes around and ends up starting, you know, pitching better than then your main guys. Like right now, I'm confident in what those guys are doing. But yes, the big concern there is Merrill Kelly and, and is that gallon.

Starting point is 00:24:40 And I don't even know if it's that gallon as much because I do feel like Zach Gallon is just kind of close to putting it back together. I mean, Merrill Kelly, he was just such, you know, such a reliable starting pitcher for this team. the playoffs and and just throughout the season last year the diamond backs really need him back and i think that's the big key really i mean it's kind of wild but we have no idea what this starting rotation is going to look like if they do make the playoff yeah can you imagine ryan nelson not being a part of it right now and then that's just crazy to say because yeah you already

Starting point is 00:25:13 moved jordan montgomery to the bullpen what what what else are you going to do with the you know with the guys in the rotation now i mean listen there's one thing i've learned about this diamond backs team throughout my decades of fandom, it's that you just never know until they play the game. It's a different story every single time, but they're going to be there to tell it. It's the Ph. and X Dinobax crew, of course, Derek Montia, Jesse Friedman, Damon, Daman dog, plug away boys. I know you got post games coming up. It's the end of the season. Vives are still high on the show. Vibes are high. So where can they find you?

Starting point is 00:25:44 We're still talking about the offs. And of course, you can follow us over at PHNX underscore debacks. We'll be doing a lot of postgame shows between now and the of the season as well as we will be here for you all throughout the playoffs and beyond that. So make sure you join us. And make sure you subscribe to PHNX Sports as that's where you're going to find that show live and of course all the additional content on the record that Jesse does catching up with other beat reporters before every series. And of course you can find Southwest Bias there as well.

Starting point is 00:26:11 So make sure you subscribe. Make sure you like this video. And of course, make sure you tuned in later this week for another edition of Southwest Bias. Get those stuff out of here. It's Southwest Bias. I'm

PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Are The Diamondbacks At Risk Of MISSING The Playoffs?

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