PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Can the Diamondbacks become the new age version of Moneyball in expensive NL West?

Starting point is 00:00:10 Hello and welcome into today's edition of the PHNX Debax podcast. No Derek Montia today, ladies and gentlemen. How the turntables, Patrick. Derek is the one in Seattle today while I am here hosting the show. I believe this is the first time I've ever done a show from the studio just sitting here by myself. Obviously, you are here with me as well. But it's sort of an odd vibe. It's going to take some getting used to.

Starting point is 00:00:38 This show is brought to you by the Drap King Sportsbook app America's number one rated sportsbook app. And as I alluded to earlier, I am Jesse Friedman. And I'm joined by none other than the one and only Patrick Lyons from DNVR Rockies. Patrick, thanks for hopping on today. I appreciate it. Yeah, I'm the interim mayor for the day. And those duties I take very seriously. So I appreciate everyone being kind.

Starting point is 00:01:05 If there's anything I can't answer or handle today, I'll make sure to pass it. along to the official mayor, Mr. Derek. Yeah, well, we'll have a stack of mail waiting for him upon his return for, for sure. Patrick, obviously, you're covering the Colorado Rockies. That is your day job, which I imagine this time of year and this particular stint in the history of that franchise. Not great on a number of different fronts. It seems like the Rockies are, you know, they obviously were in the basement of the NOS this past season. and it sort of looks like they were, you know,

Starting point is 00:01:40 but they are potentially destined to be in that same spot moving into 2023. But the good news, Patrick, is I'm pretty sure Carlos Correa is going to sign with the Colorado Rockies when it's all said and done. Is that, is that fair to say? That's what I came on here to break. I was doing with Carlos Correa coming to Denver. The public school systems are just amazing here.

Starting point is 00:02:02 He's a local kid, you know, if Chris Bryan can be considered local from all the way out in Las Vegas. I guess, you know, you might as well say Carlos Correa from Puerto Rico, also kind of native. You know, he's kind of from the same general area. So, so why not? There you go. Patrick, before we get into some more stuff on the Rockies, what do you think of this whole Carlos Correa situation? Is it going to happen with the Mets?

Starting point is 00:02:25 Is that your sense of what's going on here? I think so, but I'm just surprised it's still taking this long. And we're not really getting much news, which is the other odd wrinkle to all of this. But I think Correa wants to be in New York. New York wants him. I think that's why they were so quick to hand him their original offer, despite knowing there was probably something concerning in the physical. But I think they can figure out a way to possibly give a little insurance to the Mets, maybe even allowing them, some type of opt-out. I don't know how much you've talked about the deal that J.D. Martinez originally signed with Boston.

Starting point is 00:03:03 But they were concerned about his foot. and they had a clause in his contract, whereby the Red Sox would have been able to walk away from that five-year contract. Alas, never came to fruition. And now he's a Los Angeles Dodgers, so we'll be seeing him a lot more. You certainly will at Chase Field. So I think there'll be certain provisions like that for Correa in the Mets going forward, and they will get that deal done.

Starting point is 00:03:27 Eventually? Yeah. It seems like at this point, I mean, given the comments that Steve Cohen made, and we've already talked about this on past shows here. Like, you can't really come out and say, like, this is that final piece that we needed, like Steve Cohen did, and then back off and not make this move. And I also think from Carlos Correa's standpoint, if this deal doesn't work out, I don't know if he's going to get another, you know,

Starting point is 00:03:53 if he's going to find another 12-year contract out there at that point after, you know, two teams have backed out. So we'll, of course, continue to monitor that situation. But unfortunately, for Rocky's fans, Patrick, it seems like, Carlos Correa is probably not coming to the Rockies this offseason, nor have the Rockies been particularly active, as far as I can tell, on any front. I know they've made a few smaller trades here and there, a couple of smaller signings.

Starting point is 00:04:20 But what do you think, just big picture, what is the approach of the Colorado Rockies been this offseason? Well, the word that they don't want to use, but probably should use, is a rebuild. I think they're taking a step back. It's hard because in a rebuild, it does mean that you are trying to fix a lot of problems, and you're probably trading away players. So you're not doing a full tank where you're intentionally trying to be bad. You're just trying to fix issues in the future.

Starting point is 00:04:49 But they've got those solutions in their minor league system. They're kind of having a similar approach to what the Diamondbacks have done in recent years. Bill Schmidt has admitted that, you know, ultimately the Rockies are a little bit behind the Diamondbacks. in that process of getting those young guys to the major leagues and having them contribute to the big league level. So right now they're very much in a transition period. Bill Schmidt said down at the winter meetings in San Diego last month that they didn't want to block any of their young guys.

Starting point is 00:05:22 So they were not going to go out and maybe throw a lot of money at a branded Nimmo, who I think became a lot richer for their blood. He ended up requiring a lot more money than I think they were going to originally thought that would be required to outlay for his services, a kid from Wyoming. And so he just became too pricey. I think overall they decided, I think, to sit back. I think they're really going to not try to kid themselves and say that they are a couple pieces away from contending.

Starting point is 00:05:50 I think they're going to wait a little bit for these young guys to get to the big leagues, which ultimately means, you know, we really might not see them contending until 2025. Well, I hate to bring up the comment you made at the beginning of last off. or I guess of last season. But I feel like I have to, Patrick. You already know what I'm talking about. Of course, we wrote a preview article about the NL West for 2022. And Patrick wrote in said article that it was an impossibility that the Colorado Rockies would finish behind Arizona Diamondbacks and the standings.

Starting point is 00:06:23 But yeah, now it has become something of a refrain for DeBax fans, right? Like, oh, at least we're not the Rockies, right? Like, at least we have a plan. At least we have some sort of a direction here. But I know the. Rockies do have, maybe they're not in the same spot as the Diamondbacks when it comes to the farm system. But they do have some guys. I know me and Derek got to see a lot of Zach Veen in the Arizona Fall League. It seems like some scouts are still a little bit hesitant to buy in there,

Starting point is 00:06:49 just given his frame, some questions about whether he really has power that will translate to the big leagues in the long term. But who are some of the young guys that Rocky's fans are, you know, holding their hope over moving forward? Yeah, down in, uh, In the Arizona fall league, Blair Calvo was a guy, you know, relief pitcher, so maybe not a huge upside. He was a part of that Salt River Rafters team, warming Bernabelle, 20 years old, is on the 40-man roster. So he's a nice third-based prospect with some power. But the top 100 guys that you're going to hear the most, as you mentioned, Zach Veen, the vert is still out. He's still going to be a really talented big leaguer.

Starting point is 00:07:28 Is he going to be, you know, the possible future Larry Walker that maybe he was tabbed with, when they drafted him ninth overall in the 2020 MLB draft. A guy that was at one point even discussed as being the first overall pick by Baltimore that year. If they were going to get a little bit creative, excuse me, Detroit that year. They took Spencer Torkelson. But Drew Romo is another player that came from the 2020 MLB draft, a really good catching prospect. Had some hiccups last year in High A, Spokane.

Starting point is 00:08:00 And so we'll look to see what he does next year in AA. Probably you can make his debut. by 2024. Ezekiel Tovar, you've already seen a little bit of late in the season, got his first career home run off of Clayton Kershaw, which was awesome to see. Also had two base hits in the first two pitches he saw. First pitch as a big leaguer, base hit.

Starting point is 00:08:20 Wow. He has a big leaguer and a second at bat, base hit. So he understood the assignment very well and did a great job late last year. Edel Amador is another one of those top 100 guys. Gabriel Hughes should move. quickly throughout their system. He was their first overall pick last year at a Gonzaga University. So we've seen their farm system take tremendous leaps. They started last year as the 24th best system according to MLB pipeline, and they finished ninth. And all of that had to do with their

Starting point is 00:08:52 young guys, a lot of their Latin American players, just having career years and making that progress that they really had hoped. It's interesting because on that list, all the other teams, most of them at least improved because of players that they had acquired via trades, either that trade deadline in July of 2022 or the previous year, whereas the Rockies were very quiet in 2021. And in 2022, we're the only team in all of MLB to not make a trade at the deadline. So they did the difficult way. They did it the hard way.

Starting point is 00:09:26 And those prospects are making things really exciting for the future of the franchise. We're going to talk a lot of NOS in this show. And I think for DeBax fans when they think NOS, you know, there are some guys from the Dodgers and the Padres and the Giants who come up. But I think Charlie Blackman is sort of as synonymous with the NOS as maybe you could get, at least as far as the Colorado Rockies are concerned. What is just the sense among Rockies fans about Charlie Blackman? I know, I believe this is the last year of his contract.

Starting point is 00:09:59 He exercised his player ops. option. He's not the player that he once was. Are things at a point among the Rockies fan base, like they might be with Madison, Bumgarner and the D-Backs fan base, where, you know, fans are just really wanting to move on? Or is there still an appreciation for what Blackman is meant to the franchise over the years, even though he might not be the same player he once was? Yeah, that's an interesting question and a pretty neat parallel between those two players. Whereas Bumgarner, you know, he got himself a nice payday, very, very much. much one that he deserved, but his best days were in another uniform.

Starting point is 00:10:34 So Diamondbacks fans can't look to that and say, hey, that was our guy then. Whereas Charlie Blackman, all his best seasons, in fact, all of his seasons have been with the Colorado Rockies. This will be his 13th year. He's the second longest tenured Rocky in franchise history. I think he's a player that is very much deserving of having his number 19 retired at some point when his career is done. Rocky's fans are not necessarily looking to go away from him.

Starting point is 00:10:59 He still provides a ton of value, especially from the left-hand side. They're still looking for another left-handed hitting outfield bat. Charlie Blackman isn't that for them. He is more of a DH type. They used him more than any other player as a DH last year. So, you know, when you look at the next couple years before they maybe get back into contention with their young players, I think the Rockies front office really want Charlie, as well as, you know, Ryan McMahon, Kyle Freeland, Chris Bryant, to be the faces of the franchise so that even if they continue to

Starting point is 00:11:29 you know, when somewhere in the ballpark of 70 to 75 games, they're still happy with going to the ballpark. Because, hey, we get to see Charlie or McMahon or Freeland. So he's going to be an integral part, I think, still for this team this year. I even think that there's a chance we could see him sign a little extension. So, you know, that's a two-year deal. Maybe they want to bring him back for 2024, again, to help, you know, bridge the gap for all those young guys, be a good leader in the clubhouse, which he absolutely is. he'd be a great guy to show Zach Vien the ropes.

Starting point is 00:12:03 So Rocky's fans are still very much, you know, happy to see Charlie Blackman because there are not a ton of other options that they want to see more than Charlie Blackman. He's not necessarily blocking anyone. Yeah. Probably love, you know, some younger guys to get more opportunities and more at bats instead of Charlie Blackman, who, you know, maybe we've seen enough of. And we've certainly seen his best days. But there are not so many of those young guys where you say,

Starting point is 00:12:29 hey, you know what, giving these at-bats to Charlie Blackman is somewhat problematic. That's not necessarily the case. When that does happen, you know, maybe fans will be more ready to say, you know what, thank you for your services, but we're ready to move on from you. 2023 is not that you're just yet. You mentioned fans, you know, wanting to come out to Coorsfield to see a guy like Charlie Blackman play. I think Diamondbacks fans have been sort of an awe of Corse Field and just the Rockies fan base

Starting point is 00:12:57 and how many fans they seem to continue to bring into that stadium, just despite, you know, the lack of performance level from that team over these last couple of years. It's interesting, Patrick. It's like, in a sense, you know, the Rockies seem like this sort of smallish market team that would kind of align with the Diamondbacks in that sense. And yeah, you look at their payroll, it's kind of right in the middle of the pack. Obviously, bringing in Chris Bryant was a big move. And the ballpark continues to pack in a decent number of people.

Starting point is 00:13:27 year after year. So it's just an interesting situation, even though the Rockies really haven't found much success on the field, it seems like just from a financial standpoint, maybe they're still kind of doing okay for themselves. Yeah, I was talking earlier this morning on another Rocky's podcast, not my own even. Shamedless plug for someone else. Yeah, yeah, I'm shamelessly plugging somebody else's podcast. But we had that conversation about, you know, if they're really in a rebuild and if they're really ready to just wait, just sit around and wait for those young guys to come up and how, you know, they did that in the early 2000s with a group of guys they would call Todd and the toddlers for, you know, Todd Helden and all these young guys. And it didn't really work.

Starting point is 00:14:11 It didn't come together until several years down the line in 2007. And I think the Rockies learned a lot from that period of time because attendance did take a major dip. Still in the early days of the franchise, they didn't have certain things figured out. They also didn't have a lot of marquee names at that time. By the time Larry Walker left in 2004, it was really only Todd Hilton. They'd already gotten rid of Dante Bichette and Vinnie Castilla in the same offseason in

Starting point is 00:14:37 1999. You had Andre Scalaraga was already gone. So the Blake Street Bombers had already broken up. And there was really, you know, not as many reasons to go to the ballpark and go to Corseville. There's also a newer stadium at that point. Now, it's the third oldest ballpark in the National League. It's absolutely beautiful when you think about things that you want to do when you come to Denver, Colorado, or even Colorado as a whole, if you're a

Starting point is 00:14:59 sports fan, or even if you're just, you know, you're just looking for a good time, you go, I got to go to a game at Coors Field. It's one of the most affordable ballparks. So right now, despite the fact that they may only have 70 to 75 wins over the next two years, so that's six straight losing seasons, you know, fans are still going to come to the ballpark. The population of Colorado has gotten a lot larger, right? There's, it's, it's constantly a transplant state. I know, you know, the Diamondbacks have that same issue in Arizona with a opposing fans coming to their games rather than wearing DBAX colors and whatnot. And the Rockies actually benefit from that.

Starting point is 00:15:33 So they can still be bad and still have a lot of people come out to the ballpark. Rockies fans are going to be frustrated. But that's the only game in town. If they want to see baseball or if Cubs fans want to see the Cubs, Dodgers fans, want to see the Dodgers, they can see them right in their own backyard down at 20th and Blake in downtown, Denver. The Rockies really never won the NOS, Patrick. It just feels impossible to believe.

Starting point is 00:15:57 The Marlins have never won the NL East, but they've got two World Series. Yeah, that's a big thing, is they've never won the NLS. They've only got it in through the wild card. And that's, you know, that's a little bit indicative of the success that they've had. They did make that run in 2007. Sorry for bringing that up to the phone chat. But they caught lightning in a bottle there. You got to give them the credit.

Starting point is 00:16:23 They were the best team. in the National League, I think. I mean, if you're looking at the playoff format, it's strange because, you know, about two weeks before the end of the regular season, you know, they were several games back. I think they were like the seventh best team in the National League. And then they go on this historic run to go into the postseason,

Starting point is 00:16:42 win game 163 against the Padres, then, you know, runoff seven straight in a row against the Phillies. And the Diamondbacks, again, sorry for mentioning that. But they go to the World Series. So they've got that banner to raise. Right. But it's not the typical banner you think about when you talk about being the best team in the National League. Usually that comes with the best record or one of the best records and a team that maybe you have somewhat of a dynasty with.

Starting point is 00:17:09 Rockies have just never really had that. In fact, 17 and 18, they went to back-to-back post seasons. Only time that they've ever done that. So it's been a rough. It's been a rough going for the franchise in the grand scheme of things. D-backs have made or have won the NOS five times altogether in the history of the franchise, but three of them came in the first five years. And there have been two over the last 20 years.

Starting point is 00:17:33 So, you know, those early days with Randy Johnson and Luis Gonzalez, and, you know, that's really where the Diamondbacks did their damage, of course. And more recently it's been, I mean, yes, they have the two division titles in 2007 and 2011. But, you know, safe to say from the D-BACs perspective, this NL-West thing, It's been hard, not only for the Rockies, but also for the Arizona Diamondbacks. We're going to get into that more in just a second. But first, I want to tell you about our friends at Four Peaks who are hosting the inaugural PHNXT party.

Starting point is 00:18:07 We are so, so excited for this event presented by our friends at Four Peaks over at the Dobson Ranch Golf Course. You can see all the information here on your screen if you're joining us here on video. We are renting out the entire driving. range. Come hang with Big Drive Energy, the PHNX crew, and fellow diehards for a night of golf, free food, drinks, contests, prizes, and more. Our PHNX Suns crew will be there hosting a watch party for the Suns game against the

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Starting point is 00:19:10 So the diehards know what I'm talking about. That'll get into your inbox tomorrow. And if you're not in on that yet, highly, highly recommend that you go do that. Patrick, this thing that we're dealing with here in the NOS, it's not just the Rockies, it's the Diamondbacks. And I know Debex fans like to sort of clown on the Rockies a little bit right now, just given the struggles that they've had of late. But the reality is both of these teams moving forward are in a difficult situation. You look at the Los Angeles Dodgers, and it's not just the amount of money they're spending. It's the way that they're spending it, right?

Starting point is 00:19:46 do they look at the Los Angeles Angels, like their other teams to spend almost as much money and do not get nearly as much out of it in the grand scheme of things. It's not just that the Dodgers are spending money. It's that I think they're probably the smartest team in baseball as far as how they spend that money, where they're allocating their assets, how good they are at signing international amateurs. It seems like their farm system is always one of the best in baseball. And they don't really make, you know, a lot of huge trades that gut their farm system.

Starting point is 00:20:15 They've made some bigger deals over the years, but it feels like there's always so much depth in the farm system left over. It's honestly mind-boggling, just thinking ahead if we're being honest here from not only the Diamondbacks perspective, but also the Rockies. This is a really, really tough division. And I know it's not exactly a shock. Everyone sort of knows that at this point. But when you're thinking ahead to, you know, what would it look like for the Arizona Diamondbacks to contend not just, you know, once every five or six years. We've seen that.

Starting point is 00:20:47 They've been able to do that. The stars have sort of aligned every half decade or so for this team where they've been able to make the playoffs and get over the hump. But in order to like really be a contender in the NOS year after year after year. And now you not only have the Dodgers in that mix,

Starting point is 00:21:03 but of course you have the San Diego Padres spending what they're spending right now. Patrick, is this just a dead end? Is it just impossible? Should Diamondbacks fans just sort of wave the white flag at this point right now? I wouldn't say that. I wouldn't say they need to weave the white flag.

Starting point is 00:21:21 But it's that's somewhat of a pipe dream to be a more smaller market club that that consistently wins and doesn't just wait for their window of contention. And I think, you know, again, Diamondbacks fans and I think all fans around Major League Baseball and all professional sports, if your team has that window where they are relevant and they are winning consistently. and they give you a hope for four to five straight years in a row. And then they've got to reset some things. I think that's just a natural part of the life cycle of sports franchises. The Dodgers are just an anomaly in that way. And again, it's unfortunate that the debacks and the Rockies have to contend with that.

Starting point is 00:22:02 But I don't think there's anything wrong with having that reset. Tanking might be a different thing. And people feel different ways about that. I also not sure that that's something that will continue going forward. forward with the draft lottery, but I do contend that it's still a good enough system that you're guaranteed, you know, either the fourth or fifth best pick overall. So I don't know, we still could see some tanking, but bottom line is I think it's okay. I think it's all right. As long as you're able to, you know, get your eggs in that one basket and say, hey, we've got

Starting point is 00:22:34 a window here for, you know, four years, whatever it is. And then we can go all in and you start to see more free agent spending. You know, the Diamondbacks have been quiet with that. They haven't really need to do that quite as much. They've supplemented really well that Evan Longoria deal for third base, one year, $8 million, I think is just savvy spending for a nice short-term contract. So I think it's fine. I think that's just the life cycle of sports teams is you pick your spots, then you go for

Starting point is 00:23:07 it, and then you just got to hope that the other teams in your, division, aren't also gunning for that same time period. I think that's one of the reasons why the Rockies like this idea to maybe wait a little bit, sit back. Again, if the team comes out of the gates, firing on all cylinders, you might see them maybe make a transaction at the trade deadline to help their club, especially if they're winning. You want to support those guys in the clubhouse, let them know you believe in them to be able to do it for the second half.

Starting point is 00:23:33 But sitting back and waiting for 2025, 2026, for the debacks, it's probably 2024, 2025. it's a year or so ahead. One of the things that makes it so good to have a strategy like that right now is because the Padres window is wide open. It will end at some point. They don't have a never-ending farm system like the Dodgers. The Giants are still struggling to figure some things out. I don't know if they will.

Starting point is 00:24:00 They're somewhat of a wild card right now, but the Padres in a couple years will not be what they are right now. And they're going to could very well have a couple, you know, albatross contracts, you know, on their roster. Mini Machado may not even be a Padre. He can opt out at the end of the season. So I think it's wise to kind of pick your spots. And it's okay to wait for those moments.

Starting point is 00:24:23 It's going to be great being a DeBax fan here very, very soon. It's like you're trying to like time the housing market or something. Like make sure the conditions are perfect for you to like go in and enter the market and push all the chips in. So just so we're all on the same page here. So the San Diego Padres have Fernando Tatis Jr. under contract through 2034, which I don't even know what I'll be doing in 2034 because that feels so impossibly far away. Sandra Bogartz is under contract through 233, similarly. And then Mani Machado, as you mentioned, does have an opt out after this next season.

Starting point is 00:25:01 If he doesn't take that opt out, which I think would be surprising they have him under control through 2028. Juan Soto, of course, is there through 2024, although it sort of feels like it would be up AJ Preller's alley to try to lock him up long term and, you know, make him part of that San Diego Padres core moving forward. The Dodgers, in terms of their long-term assets, of course, Mookie Betts has this huge contract. He'll be there through 2032 and then Freddie Freeman through 27 over in L.A. So, yeah, there are some long-term assets, some very, very good players that are going to be in the NOS for a very long time. But, yeah, If you're a team like the Diamondbacks, you're looking at, you know, Corbyn Carroll,

Starting point is 00:25:41 and you're looking at Alec Thomas and Jake McCarthy and all of these young players that we've spent so much time talking about. And the reality for a team like the debacks is, you know, they might not be able to give a 10-year $300 million contract or whatever, you know, if one of those players warrants it, it would be tough for them. It seems like the path, Patrick, to making this sustainable for a team like the debacks that probably is going to spend even less than the Rockies moving forward, is you have to lock these guys up early.

Starting point is 00:26:11 You have to do what the Atlanta Braves are doing, which is absolutely insane. If we pull the tweet here of the Atlanta Braves and their contract extensions, we've talked about this on the show already, but if you're looking for like a blueprint of what a team like the Arizona Diamondbacks should be looking to do, this is it, right? And I don't think I'm, you know, this feels like it's pretty obvious. I think a lot of people have recognized that this is kind of what you have to do.

Starting point is 00:26:38 The Braves have Austin Riley under control through 2033, Michael Harris through 2032, Matt Olson, 2030, Sean Murphy, just signed the deal, 2029, Spencer Strider, sign an extension 29. The list goes on and on and on. Patrick, I don't know if the Braves have some sort of secret method of getting players to sign extensions. Whatever it is, you know, Alex Anthopoulos needs. to tell all of the other GMs in baseball about that ASAP,

Starting point is 00:27:08 because I think they would very much like to know what exactly has gone into all of these deals going down. But there's something to be said for this, this idea of like pay your guys while they're young. Tate, you're going to be taking some risks. You might be paying some of these players before they're well established. But for a team like the debacks, it feels like that's the gamble that you might have to take.

Starting point is 00:27:30 Yeah, absolutely. We discussed this on Tuesday's podcast on the DNVR. Rocky's podcast where, you know, we looked at some of the extensions that the Rockies had signed with their guys. By the end of the 2021 season, up through the middle of last season when they extended Daniel Bard, you know, they put out $233 million, I think, was the number for extensions. Whereas Atlanta, since the beginning of last season, $600 million for those guys. And that's not including the $100 plus million that Ocuna Jr. got, which was, and it's a little. embarrassment. If you're, if you're his agent, you did an awful job. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:28:08 During the bag for him. Same thing with Ozzy Albies's agent. Like, yeah. Those are embarrassing deals. But to your point, you're, you're guaranteeing money to those players. Like, you know, there's a lot of risk. There's a lot of risk with that. I mean, look at, at 2019, David Dahl was an all-star for the Colorado Rockies. And you say, oh, man, yeah, you've got, you know, control over this guy of his contract for about four more years. Man, how many more Stars is he going to have? You know what? Let's go. Let's guarantee him some money what he would probably make in arbitration the next three, four years and then buy out two or three years of what would be his free agency. He can still become a free agent at, you know, say H31, 32. He can still

Starting point is 00:28:49 secure another contract. So there is some risk there on both sides. And then you turn around and you realize, well, David Dahl really, really lost himself in a lot of ways. Ended up getting designated for assignment. And that was it. That 2020 was his final. season with the Rocky. So he went from being an All-Star in 2019 to getting designated for assignment a year later. Now, if you guarantee that money to that guy, that's it. You're just stuck with that player that you may not want anymore. But if you go year to year to year, you can designate it for assignment and you don't have to pay that player anything. So there's a lot of risk with that. You need to be confident in your guys and say, I want to have this player around. I'm going to

Starting point is 00:29:29 give him guaranteed money. Now he knows how much money he's going to make going forward. That's going to take a little pressure off that player. He can make better investments with his life, be a little bit more stress-free. So it's definitely a win-win situation. And you're right. That's the way that you have to go about it. You've got to sign the guys before they are close to free agency. Once you're even two years near free agency, that's, guys can sniff it. Guys can sniff it. And we think about about anyone that has two years left before free agency right now, they can look and say, hey, by the end of next year, it's 2023. All right, I'm going to play in 23.

Starting point is 00:30:06 I'm going to play in 24 and I'm a free agent. I'm going to be a free agent at the end of next year. You can taste it. So you've got to get your hooks in those guys a little bit earlier when they're three or four years out. We also need to know that this is a player that you want to be tied to for the foreseeable future if you're going to guarantee them that kind of money. Ben makes a good point in the comments saying it helps to have good players to extend. And that's kind of like, yeah, you can, you know, you can be as good as anyone in baseball at getting players to sign extensions and, you know, make your city, your team appealing to them over a long-term deal.

Starting point is 00:30:46 But yeah, if like you're saying with David Dahl, those are mistakes that the teams do make with some frequency. We've even seen with the Diamondbacks, it wasn't quite like what the Rockies did with David Dahl, but the D-Backs give Cattel-Marte an extension before the 2020. 22 seasons started. And at the time, everyone was marveling because Ketelmarte, you know, a lot of injuries in 2021, but he had an OPS of around 900. He was far in a way the best hitter on the team. And he signed for about $15 million a year in this extension. And so it felt like a huge win for a team like the Diamondbacks.

Starting point is 00:31:22 And then it's amazing how even just one season can change the outlook on a deal like that. Now, now D-Backs fans are wondering like, oh, man, is that kind of an albatross? of a contract now. I don't think it's quite to that point. I think Cotel Marte is still valuable enough. Mostly offensively, the defense has taken quite a bit of a step back. But I think there's enough value there for right now

Starting point is 00:31:44 that things are still okay. But it's fair to ask the question. You know, in another couple years, will the Deepak's be looking back on that extension? And, you know, Cotel Marte becomes the new Madison Bumgarner, the new guy who's, you know, just not really,

Starting point is 00:31:57 not really performing at the level that their contract value would, would seem to indicate. And then on the other hand, you have a guy like Merrill Kelly, who the debacks also extended at the beginning of 2022, and he came out and threw 200 innings with a 3.370 RA. So, yeah, the million dollar question here is how good is Corbyn going to be? How good is Alec Thomas going to be? How good is Jake McCarthy going to be when it's all set and done? Are these the guys that are worth those kind of long-term extensions, or would it be a little bit bullish at this point in their careers to go out and take that step?

Starting point is 00:32:34 And to your point about, you know, once guys get kind of close to free agency, there's a point where the window to do a deal like that closes. The debacks might be past that point with Zach Gallen, frankly. He has three years, three years remaining, not two as you were talking about, but I still think that things look a little bit grim there as far as a contract extension goes. But yeah, if the debacks feel strongly about these young players, that's that's sort of the gamble you got to take. And you just kind of have to do it if you're the debacks because what's the alternative? Like, you know, letting those guys walk, you know, having them become really great players and then letting them walk in free agency.

Starting point is 00:33:12 And then, you know, at that point, you're trying to find another Corbyn Carroll. You're trying to find another Alec Thomas or whoever it may be. Yeah, and you don't know that the grass is greener on the other side with that other free agent, whereas you're you're very familiar with Zach Allen. Right. From when he was in the minors. And you acquired him as a prospect in that jazz chisholm deal. The other side of the coin that you talk about is, you know, Corby Carroll.

Starting point is 00:33:35 He say, hey, lock him up, extension. How good is Corbyn Carroll going to be? He has an idea in his head. And so the diamondbacks, you know, slide a number across the table and say, hey, here's how much we want to pay you more money than you probably ever dreamed of. It's guaranteed for the next, you know, seven, eight, nine years. And then this is how much you're going to make. of course, he's going to sit down with his agent and say, this is the kind of player I think I'm going to be.

Starting point is 00:33:57 I'm going to put up these kind of numbers. And so we're going year to year to year. I'm going to get the leak minimum. I'm going to get $700,000 for my first three years. You know, they want to give me closer to $5 million for my first three years. That would be nice. But then I go to arbitration. I'm going to make this much. All right, they'll pay me the exact same amount. But then I would go into free agency at age 28, whatever it may be. And I could sign a 10-year deal. worth X amount. He's got that number in his head. And the Diamondbacks, they only want to pay him for three or four years after what would

Starting point is 00:34:31 be his natural free agent season and at a discounted rate for what he would be on an actual open market. So the player also has, you know, an idea of his value of his worth. Same, same thing with the agent. Brian Reynolds is dealing with this right now in Pittsburgh. It was reported about the two sides are $50 million apart. One of the reasons why Brian Reynolds realized, hey, you know what? I'd rather go somewhere else, you know, trade me to someone who's more of a contender and

Starting point is 00:34:56 someone like Atlanta who would lock me up and give me that money. You know, I'm sure it would be fine going out to free agency and making money that route. But if you can get that money guaranteed to him now, man, that's going to take a lot of weight off of his shoulders over the next three years because he's got three more years until he reaches free agency. So, you know, the players, they have an idea in their mind, too, how much they're worth. And if it doesn't line up with the team, then you're just not going to have a deal. Well, speaking of free agents, the Diamondbacks just signed one.

Starting point is 00:35:27 As people are discussing here in the comments, according to, at least I'm seeing this from John Heyman, and a number of other reporters might have had this one as well. But Zach Davies is returning to the Arizona Diamondbacks on a $5 million deal. According to John Heyman, there's also $3 million in possible incentives here. Patrick, this was a, this was a, move that not necessarily a huge shock. Zach Davies was on the list of 10 free agents that I wrote about about a week ago. This one I think was pretty obvious to see that there was a possible fit here.

Starting point is 00:36:02 Zach Davies, according to reports, did indicate that he would be interested in returning to the Diamondbacks. He wasn't going to return for $2 million, or I'm forgetting what the exact figure was, but it was about $2 million that he had on an option for 2023. no surprises that he turned that down after the season he had. But now he returns to the Arizona Diamondbacks. We'll just kind of react to this real quick. Take a bit of a hard left turn here.

Starting point is 00:36:31 Davy slots in to the Diamondbacks rotation pretty nicely. He gives the Debacks a veteran presence, a reliable arm, which I think is very, very important for a team that basically has Zach Allen, Merrill Kelly, and then a bunch of young pitchers that seem promising, plus Madison Bumgarner. That's kind of what the rotation picture looked like prior to this. Now, Zach Davies can slot in behind Merrill Kelly and Zach Gallen. And then you also have Madison Bumgarner along with a number of the young guys,

Starting point is 00:37:02 Tommy Henry, Dre Jameson, Ryan Nelson, potentially Brandon fought in the mix for the number four, number five spots in the rotation. I know you've seen Zach Davies pitch a game or two against your Colorado Rockies, Patrick. What's your sense of him? him as a starting pitcher. I'm a big fan of Zach Davis. I am. He's not an ace. He's not a number two. At his best, he's a number three. But there's a lot of value to have consistency out of the back end of your rotation. We just finished up a podcast where I had Zach Davies as one of those names that I've kind of long, one of the Rockies to go after him and Wade Miley. They're just guys that

Starting point is 00:37:44 go out there. And so long as they're healthy, they're going to post. They're going to be good. They're going to be great in the back end of the rotation. And so I think this is a really good move for the diamondbacks. You know, obviously there's probably a lot of fans, maybe frustrated with the idea that you want to see Ryan Nelson, you know, get a spot in the rotation. And he's probably the favorite to do that, Dray Jameson. You know, you've got some other guys in the system that you want to see. But you also want to set those guys up for success.

Starting point is 00:38:11 You don't want to say, hey, we're going to have a, you know, a rotation where nearly half of it is rookies. Yeah. They're going to have to go out and post, you know. It's okay to kind of go, you know, back and forth a little bit between Reno and Phoenix. And that's just something that happens as part of a big leaguers trajectory. It just happens that way. So I think this is really good for helping out the depth of the rotation.

Starting point is 00:38:36 And as, you know, we saw in the comments here on the PHNX sports channel on YouTube, that, you know, he could be a really good trade chip. And then then you open up the rotation a little bit. in the second half for those young guys where they stabilize a little bit. And you say, okay, now you can go out and this is going to be your spot in the rotation going forward. So there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal. And to this point in his career, there's no such thing as Zach Davies for one season. So it's just a good pickup for them.

Starting point is 00:39:06 Davies is still 29 years old. You know, if you're looking at the free agent market, a lot of the guys were, you know, 35, 36, something like that. And I think the debacks probably like that, you know, there's not a huge risk that Davies is just going to drop off a cliff because he's aging or anything like that. Last year with the debacks, he had a 4.09 ERA in 27 starts. We have another tweet. This one is especially ironic given our subject today of the debacks not spending enough money in free agency to compete with some of the other teams in the NOS. According to John Gambadoro, he says the diamondbacks still have money to spend in free agency.

Starting point is 00:39:45 He also says they were in on Dansby Swanson and did make him a substantial offer a few weeks ago, an offer very competitive with what he ended up signing for with the Chicago Cubs. Of course, that deal wound up being seven years, $177 million. That's fascinating, Patrick. Dansby Swanson, of course, there's some history with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Diamondbacks drafted Swanson first overall back in 2015. Of course, the dreaded trade that they, they made with the Atlanta Brave sending him over to Atlanta.

Starting point is 00:40:18 That would have been quite a development if the Diamondbacks had turned around and brought Dansby Swanson back to Arizona after that. Not the first big name shortstop. The debacks have been attached to this offseason when we were down in San Diego for the winter meetings, Patrick, just a few weeks ago. The Diamondbacks were also linked to Xander Bogartz at that time. Everyone was skeptical, including myself, about the teams, you know, where they really right up there at, you know, $280 million ready to make that deal.

Starting point is 00:40:50 But according to this report, Gambo is pretty reliable as some good team sources. The debacks seem to have been in the mix for Danesby Swanson. Yeah, we talked about it in San Diego. I thought that would have been a good fit, bring the prodigal son back home like that. That would have been fitting. That would have been a great storyline for them, especially with him being the, the fourth best option or the fourth cheapest option. still, you know, crept close to $200 million. And again, bottom line is if the Cubs offered him more money than the Diamondbacks,

Starting point is 00:41:22 I mean, he's going to have to take that deal, not only for his family and his new wife, Mallory Pugh, who's from Colorado. So you got a Colorado connection there. Maybe you could have brought him in the Rockies. Not quite. We got Ezekiel Tovar. I know you guys had Nick Ahmed there. So you've got another superstar shortstop.

Starting point is 00:41:40 I kid, of course. But, yeah, I think that would have been an interesting fit for Swanson to go back to Arizona there and kind of, you know, write some wrongs within the organization if the money was right. I think that would have made a lot of sense. You know, one thing that a lot of teams that are young and maybe aren't quite ready yet to contend is the front office, you know, gets a little aggressive early on in free agency and acquires a player maybe a year or two before they're really ready. to get going. We've seen that a lot of times. I think the Cubs did that with John Lester. It's just something that you do. And so that really does suggest that the Diamondbacks were looking to basically bring in Swanson, get them going. Yeah, maybe they wouldn't contend necessarily in 23, but 2024, those young guys have another year under their belt,

Starting point is 00:42:34 and then they'd really be ready to go all in on it in 24 and start to become a contender. as it were, you know, you may have to wait another season for that to happen for the D-backs. But I can see the appeal. I can see why it would be attractive for the D-Bex front office. Heath Klein makes a great point in the comments, saying a team with Gereale Jr. Anne Swanson would have led the league in Hair Above Average, which is the latest, greatest stat cast stat. I'm not sure if you've heard about it, Patrick, but Hair Above Average is going to be a big one in 2020. Anyway, we'll get back to Dansby Swanson and that development, which is very, very interesting here in a second.

Starting point is 00:43:18 But first, I want to tell you about our friends over at Moore Furniture, where you can save big on the best furniture in the valley. Head over to morefurniture.com. Patrick, I'm about to move into a new townhouse. And of course, furnishing the place is sort of an undertaking. Definitely going to be hitting up more furniture. Do you have any advice for me, Patrick? general, as far as furnishing a place, any pro tips from someone who I imagine has done that a few times in your life? Yeah, I would honestly listen to the experts over there because they know

Starting point is 00:43:54 what's best. And, you know, sometimes you've got to spend a little bit more for that quality. Like you get what you pay for. And so if you go the, you know, maybe the cheaper route, again, you get what you pay for. So I would really consider the experts over there. They know what they're doing. And they'll help you figure out. some things too. If you let them know what the layout is going to look like, they might have a better idea for you as far as what to get. So that's the tip. If you know someone who's good with the feng shui, all that stuff, rugs, tie it in, you know, they've got experts over there that can lay all of that out for you. That would be my advice to almost be almost as much hands off as you could

Starting point is 00:44:32 possibly be other than when it comes to, you know, pulling the credit card out and actually paying for it. That's the only time maybe your hands should be in on a deal like this. Well, our friends over at More Furniture also have their famous white glove delivery, which is how we had all of our incredible office furniture delivered from our friends over at More Furniture.com. So be sure to check them out over at morefurniture.com. I will certainly be doing that as well myself here over the next few weeks. Going back to this Danesby Swanson report, and I think a couple of people mentioned this in the chat as well, in a sense, this is maybe heartbreaking for TeamX fans to know that like, hey,

Starting point is 00:45:10 hey, this guy who signed a few weeks ago, you were actually right on the verge, but you didn't do it, you know? It's sort of like when, you know, someone says, oh, I thought of you when I was at the store the other day, I saw this thing that would have been perfect for you. And then you asked them if they bought it and they say no, right? It's like, oh, great, thanks for, thanks for telling me.

Starting point is 00:45:27 But I do think this says something about the Diamondbacks plan, potentially next off season. Someone mentioned in the chat that, you know, both Raphael Devers and potentially Mani Machado would be out there on the market. market, the diamondbacks don't have a long-term solution at third base as of this moment. So I do think that makes some sense. You're probably looking at a higher price tag than, you know, where Danesby-Swanson's

Starting point is 00:45:53 market ultimately fell. But that could be an option for the debacks next off-season. Patrick, are we, are we crazy? Somehow we went from talking about how the diamondbacks, you know, never spend enough money to potentially contend in the NOS. And here we are talking about Raphael Devers and Mani Machado next to season. No, I think that's the place to be right now. If you're if you're a Diamondbacks fan, because, you know, those guys, those young guys are coming. Those young guys are there. And,

Starting point is 00:46:19 and so they're going to, they're going to start to be, you know, contributing in a major way. I mean, you're going to have a couple of all-stars this year. It's not just going to be, hey, who's the, who's the setup guy doing really well in the seventh or eighth inning? You know, no, no, no, no disrespect to Joe Mantiply. But, you know, you got some stars. You've got some stars on this roster right now. And they're going to need to be supplemented a little bit by some veteran guys. And so the better they are, the more exciting, the sex year that they are in general as a whole, more fans are going to come out to the ballpark.

Starting point is 00:46:51 There's going to be more ability to be flexible with the payroll. And so you can see, you know, those kind of players, you know, gravitate towards the Diamondbacks if they are footing the bill for that. You know, the Swanson business, you know, it's hard to know which side of the fence. to lean towards as far as Jordan Lawler is concerned. You say, well, you know, does that mean that they don't believe in Jordan Lawler? No, not necessarily. It could just be that when Lawler is ready, you know, Swanson moves over to third base. Maybe they just feel maybe Lawler's more of a third basement or, you know, just, again,

Starting point is 00:47:28 one of those situations of like, we'll kind of wait and see. If we can get Swanson, great, we'll figure it out. Swanson's a way better big leaguer right now than Jordan Lawler. bottom line jordan law is not a big leaguer yet so you say if we get swanson great we'll figure it out if we don't luller can still be that all-star shortstop we hope it for him to be and then we can go and supplement and get one of those third baseman yeah yeah i think it i mean a lot of people kind of assume you know and this happened when when they showed interest in zander bogarts as well like oh this you know is there is there some sort of a concern here about jordan luller's long-term

Starting point is 00:48:02 defensive home third base is kind of the natural thing that comes to here mind. Based on what I've seen from Jordan Lawler, I actually think second base might be, like if he is not a shortstop, I actually think second base would probably be a more likely landing spot for him. It seems like the arm strength has been a big thing that people have started to notice that maybe that's not quite there to the degree that people hoped it would be. And if the arm is the primary issue and not your range, it would probably make more sense for Loller to land second instead of third. Regardless, there's just so many layers to this Danesby's. One, something and the fact that, you know, I mean, he was the centerpiece of, of arguably the biggest

Starting point is 00:48:42 trade blunder in Diamondbacks history. And to come back and turn around and sign him as a free agent, I can't decide if that's like, like, cool. Like, oh, yeah, you know, you righted the wrong. Or if that's like kind of sad that you're having to pay, you know, 175 or 180 million dollars for a player that you could have potentially had in your organization for several years already. I don't know how to think about this, Patrick. Help me out here. It's very much poetic. I think we can say that.

Starting point is 00:49:11 I think we can say it's quite poetic for him to come back like that. Again, I think they write some wrongs in being able to do something like that. Of course, they didn't. But I like that aspect. But you're right. I think people probably don't know how to feel exactly like, you know, again, which side of the fence are you on when it comes to that? Is this a good news? is just a bad news. Like all things, all things are a gift and a curse, depending on how you,

Starting point is 00:49:39 you want to look at it in that way. I think that would have been really nice for them to have done that. But at the same time, it would have reminded a lot of people of something that, you know, there's new DeBax fans each and every day, maybe not millions every day, but nevertheless, you know, you got to dig deep and learn the history of the franchise as something that, you and Derek do a great job in each and every day. But if you're not aware of that, you go, wait, we already had him and now we had to go out and pay it. Why didn't we extend him like we did with Catele-Marté?

Starting point is 00:50:14 And then you could get frustrated all over again. And it ends up working out really nice. So it's going to be loaded. There's a lot to unpack. There's a, you're going to need some therapy time. Therapy Thursday. Book it right now. That's what tomorrow's going to be.

Starting point is 00:50:30 I mean, you know what's crazy. You know something crazy has happened when Derek. Eric Montia shows up in the chat while he's on vacation. He chimed in earlier and was like, what the heck? Danzby Swanson of the Diamondbacks. Yeah, we're definitely going to continue to talk about that going into tomorrow's show.

Starting point is 00:50:45 So be sure to join us tomorrow at 1 p.m. I'll be joined by Sean DePaz and Michaela Perkins. We'll have three people on the show tomorrow. Patrick, you were able to, you know, sort of take Derek's spot all by yourself. But, you know,

Starting point is 00:50:59 sometimes we have to bring in, you know, a whole contingent of people in order to, in order to make up for what Derek brings to the show. So be sure to join us tomorrow, of course, at 1 p.m. Another thing that you should do between now and tomorrow is go visit our friends over at Octane Raceway. We are excited to welcome both Octane Raceway and Mavericks to the Ph&X family.

Starting point is 00:51:21 You've seen the fun that our crew has had out there. Now come check it out for yourself. We did have an incredible time. We had an all-staff meeting over there a couple of months ago. It was genuinely one of the best Thursday. afternoons I've ever I've ever had in my life. So highly, highly recommend. Of course, they have a full service, full service food and drink menu as well. Octane has the only full-time indoor, outdoor track in the United States. So some pretty special things happening over there. They also have

Starting point is 00:51:51 daily specials on Monday. They have the $15 unlimited fun pass Tuesday, 50% off Taco Trio's. Wednesday is winning Wednesday with half-price arcade games all day. and the fun continues on for the rest of the week as well. So be sure to go visit them if you haven't already. If you're joining us here on YouTube, we really appreciate your time. Be sure to smash the like button and hit subscribe if you haven't already. It helps the YouTube algorithm.

Starting point is 00:52:18 That is what we live for around here, is helping the YouTube algorithm, as well as bringing you the best Arizona Diamondbacks coverage that we possibly can as well. Patrick, I feel like we've only sort of scratched the surface of this NL West situation, but it seems that the Diamondbacks are maybe a little bit more willing to write some of these big checks than maybe either of us realize coming into this.

Starting point is 00:52:42 Yeah, for sure. You never know what the plan is going to be. You only hope that there is a plan. And if Diamondbacks, maybe have struggled with that. The Rockies have definitely struggled with that. I think Colorado has a plan in place. Again, it's not one that I think a lot of fans are going to be happy with because I think it is sitting back a little bit. It was mentioned in San Diego at the winter meetings last month that they didn't want to block any of their young guys with the long-term deals, as I mentioned earlier.

Starting point is 00:53:10 So they have a plan. It's just kind of sit back a little bit and not spend and then regret that deal later on when you want to spend that money. So I think that's the positive in not locking up players to some of these longer-term deals. And for the Diamondbacks, you know, I think you guys have a lot less flexibility for. financially than the Rockies have. Rockies are almost consistently here in the last decade been almost a top half payroll. Like they're usually in around number 15. I think they've been as low as 12 to 10. So they're willing to spend, especially when, you know, they're playing really well and season ticket numbers are really high. So they can get back to that point. Whereas, you know,

Starting point is 00:53:53 in Arizona, it might take a little bit longer for for fans to realize how good, you know, the future is going to be, how bright this roster. could possibly be. It's not going to be until they start winning ball games where people are going to come back to the ballpark and really want to come to the ballpark and be excited to do that. When they do, then they'll start to have some more of that money to go forward and use on payroll. But if they miss, you know, that's, there's no wiggle room. The Rockies spent $102 million on Wade Davis, Brian Shaw and Jake McGee, the Super Bullpen was a failure.

Starting point is 00:54:28 You know, for the Diamondbacks to the Yosmani Tomas, deal. was something that you just had to eat and that's money. Think about where they could have spent so much better during that time to supplement the roster and be more relevant. So you've got to be careful with that. You absolutely have to be careful with that. But Rockies and Diamondbacks have a plan. So that's something.

Starting point is 00:54:49 That's something. There we go. We're going to end on that note right here on the PhNX Devag show here on this Wednesday afternoon. Thank you all so much for being with us here if you were able to join us in the chat. If you're one of those audio-only people, be sure to join us on YouTube, at least every once in a while. We love interacting with you in the comments as we go along. As I mentioned earlier, if you haven't already, be sure to subscribe to the pH and X Sports YouTube channel. Drop us a like and a comment here on the video as well.

Starting point is 00:55:18 Let us know what you think of this entire situation with Dansby Swanson, potentially, nearly coming to the Arizona Diamondbacks. And then Zach Davies officially signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks, at least per reports. at this point. If you haven't already, be sure to give us both a follow on Twitter. You can find me at Jesse N. Friedman, our friend Patrick Lyons. You can find at Patrick D. Lyons. And of course, for us over here, all roads lead to PHNX underscore D-Backs as well as pH and X underscore sports.

Starting point is 00:55:50 And that last one is on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. Thank you all once again for being with us here today. We really appreciate your time. And remember, kids, baseball is fun. but it's so much more fun when you don't play in the NL West.

PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Can the Diamondbacks become the new age version of Moneyball in expensive NL West?

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