PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Diamondbacks Set Sights on Japanese PHENOM Roki Sasaki, Jordan Montgomery Exercises Option

Starting point is 00:00:01 Well, Jordan Montgomery did the thing and exercised his option for 2025 to the surprise of nobody. We will be discussing more on what this means for the Diamondbacks and for Monty for 2025 and more right now in 30 seconds. Don't go anywhere. And welcome in to another edition of the PHMXD bags podcast right here on PHNX. My name is Derek Montia, occasionally known as your mayor of PHMX. This man next to me is the one and only thunderstick Jesse Friedman, occasionally known as my vice mayor. even though, I don't know if he still deserves that or not. Welcome in to another edition of this show.

Starting point is 00:00:48 I know, it is. It is. I mean, you've earned it back, but, I mean, there was still some dissension. And the election has been weird. And I don't even know when it comes to an end. Is there, is there an election? I don't know. I think, I think Espo had to drop out.

Starting point is 00:01:02 You guys backed off the political ads in a way that you wish everybody did. You wish everybody did. Yeah, no, I'm still getting those text messages and I'm still getting those phone calls. But it'll all be over soon enough. as is joctober jesse but before we say goodbye to joctober we do have to give out an award for best halloween costume of 2024 and it has to go to this particular couple for not only a tremendous amount of accuracy here depicting what happened in the world series but also just for the timeliness of this particular costume also this gentleman uh portraying austin copp

Starting point is 00:01:43 Bianco, it looks insanely like him. I mean, the depiction is like no other, Jesse. And I mean, just overall, the wall, the glove, everything about this. I've, I've never seen a baseball costume that I think was this perfect. Maybe the cards. I like the kids that like, like a baseball card. Those are fun, but that one's pretty good. She doesn't look really all that much like Moogie Betts.

Starting point is 00:02:09 I guess that would be the one flaw. That's the kicker. But I guess we have to give it. You got to give them points for that. They executed this pretty well. I am curious though, like as they were wandering around presumably trick or treating in the neighborhood, did they maintain this exact pose? That's a good point.

Starting point is 00:02:30 Like as they're walking along the sidewalk because that would make me appreciate this all the more if they found a way to do that. And honestly, like going back, if we could put that image back up, What really, what could happen here is this could be a single person costume. It's a fine couples costume, but if you had a mannequin arm with a glove on it, attached to the wall, and you were walking around holding onto it with both hands, then everybody would instantly know what you are. But you're right, Jesse.

Starting point is 00:02:58 Yeah, this is a little weird. You have, you know, your wall blocking your lower region, I guess. It's a little risque there, I guess, in overall where it's at. But also, again, accurate as to how it's. happened in real life. So kudos to those people, again, for their timeliness. Also, it took no time for Jordan Montgomery to exercise his player option to return to the Arizona Diamondbacks for 2025. He's exercised his $22.5 million player option with the debacks, according to Mark Feinson. And that was as expected, Jesse. I know there was a lot of discussion that maybe he shouldn't.

Starting point is 00:03:35 We asked Archie yesterday about like, hey, would have what Ken Kendrick's said impacted you enough to not take that money and the answer was a resounding no and obviously yeah it was here for jordan yeah yeah there's no is to the surprise of no one right uh anyone thinking that jordan montgomery might you know go elsewhere just because ken kentrick said what he said i i don't think that was ever going to be the case maybe it is true that ken was was trying to steer monte in that direction with the words that he said but that's not how the works. If you contractually owe someone $22.5 million who is not going to be able to make that money on the open market, it makes sense to exercise the option and take the money. And I would

Starting point is 00:04:24 have done the same thing if I were Jordan Montgomery. And I think everyone watching, listening, if they're honest with themselves, would have done the same thing, right? This is how the industry works. Even if you do not pitch up to your contract, Jordan Montgomery earned the right at having a a vesting player option on the back end of this deal and probably should have earned a lot more than that. He probably should have signed a four or five year deal last winter. That ultimately didn't come to fruition. So yeah, no huge surprise on any of this for me. So the good is that Jordan Montgomery has all the reasons next year to come out and be his best version of himself. We've talked about this in the past few shows,

Starting point is 00:05:09 but several guys, including Zach Gallen and Merrill Kelly, have all the reason in the world, personal reasons to go out there and just shove this year. And so there is that factor. Now with Jordan Montgomery returning for this money, maybe he lives up to earning it. And I think that's what people want to see more than anything.

Starting point is 00:05:26 Like, I can understand the lack of faith in Montgomery from what we've seen this year. A lot of people have already given up on him. But his career numbers still suggest that he is a very, a very, very good pitcher. And we know that last season was erratic at best, right? Not just not just in actually not having a spring training and going through the free agent process and having it be a huge disappointment. But, you know, having to fire your agent, which is one of the most powerful agents

Starting point is 00:05:53 in all of sports, having to go on beyond that and still perform despite your dissatisfaction with the situation that you're in and the fact that the person that no longer, that you're no longer partnered with got you into that situation. I mean, maybe that ate away at him a little bit. And then, you know, you have the lack of,

Starting point is 00:06:12 lack of performing well. You mix that with, you know, everybody kind of being disappointed in, in him just very quickly. And, you know, again,

Starting point is 00:06:20 it was, it was a bad season. It was a recipe for disaster. I can understand him feeling a little bit like, you know, that there's a chance of redemption here. Not only for the Diamondbacks, not only to come back and kind of live up

Starting point is 00:06:33 to what he was supposed to be in another year, but for himself to come out to make that amount of money based on the fact that he did not have a good season and rebound to come back and show teams that he is still the pitcher that he has been in the past let's take a look at his 2024 stats shall we I don't really want to know you're going to make me do it anyway all right so jordan montgomery had a 623 ERA the worst a one six minimum 100 innings pitched in all of major league baseball he had a 165 whiz all kinds of traffic on on the base paths through 117 innings a 15.6% strikeout rate which for those of you who may not be too familiar with that it's not very good at least it's not very good league average is about 22% that's around where Montgomery's been in the past so that was a an enormous drop off in terms of in terms of strikeouts and then his walk rate also climbed last year this past season 8.3% walk rate there which is basically right at league average.

Starting point is 00:07:33 Jordan Montgomery usually excelled in that regard was much better. The batting average against, I mean, batting average is certainly not everything at this stage in baseball, but a 312 opponent batting average kind of tells you everything you need to know in some ways. There was a ton of traffic on the bases against Jordan Montgomery all season long. And somehow, Derek, we didn't have this on the graphic there. Maybe this is unfair to Monty, but he did have an eight and seven record. So for those of you, for the traditional, the traditionalists out there who value record as a stat for pitchers, Montgomery came out, came out okay in that regard.

Starting point is 00:08:15 No, I don't care about that, Jesse. We've talked about wins and losses not mattering. And you know it. And you know it. However, overall in his career, even with that terrible season factored in, his career, his career stats are much better than that. I think that's what we're taking a look at here overall. He's a 4.03 ERA, 1.27 whip and 872 innings pitched, 21.5% strikeout rate, which like you said is much closer to that league average, 6.8% walk percentage and a 254 opponent batting average. So this is more of what the Diamondbacks expected to get, even on a bad season.

Starting point is 00:08:51 You know, like this right here is a bit, you know, I guess what you would expect the worst to be. and Jordan Montgomery was far worse than this, right? So, I mean, there's no doubt that he wasn't a huge disappointment. However, like I said, there is a chance here for him to come back in 2025 and make all of that irrelevant. You know, like finish his story with the debacks and have a good season and have people start to say, obviously last year was bad due to a bunch of variables. and factors that caused him to have a pretty rough season. It's crazy to me in retrospect to think about how the biggest selling point for Jordan Montgomery

Starting point is 00:09:38 when the Diamondbacks acquired him was his stability, the fact that you could count on him to post 180 innings, whatever it is, a sub four ERA. He'd done that year after year after year, right? 2023, 320-2-ERA made 32 starts. 2022, a 348 ERA and 32 starts. 2021, a 383 ERA and 30 starts. He was never the kind of guy that you've, you know, you necessarily wanted starting game one of a postseason series for you,

Starting point is 00:10:10 but you figured that the floor was really high. And it just goes to show the volatility of pitchers and really everyone in this sport that we all love, right? Like these sorts of seasons do happen. And obviously there were some, you know, some factors at play that are identifiable, the fact that he missed spring training and had a very odd buildup to the season. But at the same time, there's some other factors here that I continue to not really understand. Does, you know, a mile and a half, 1.5 miles per hour on your fastball, like, is that the difference between Montgomery having a 3-2 and a 6-2?

Starting point is 00:10:49 It's hard for me to talk myself into that. So there's other things at play here. I've tried to break some of them down and in some written stories over on our site. But whoever the Diamondbacks new pitching coach is, they're going to have, it's going to probably not be a very easy thing to figure out what exactly went wrong for Montgomery in 2024. Even if Montgomery performed the way he did with the Cardinals last year before he was traded to the Rangers, 3.42 ERA. Yeah, he was really good. Yeah. Just, and again, there are outliers.

Starting point is 00:11:24 There are seasons, short seasons earlier on in his career with the New York Yankees where he posted similar ERAs and very, very small sample sizes. But I do think that that this year could be an outlier. I guess it's more of hope. I feel like it's more than just hope. Like I feel like looking at these numbers and knowing the factors in, I mean, you can call it excuses. And I understand that. You can call it whatever kind of loser talk you want to call it. The fact of the matter is is that there were a lot of variables that impacted Jordan

Starting point is 00:11:57 Montgomery and we don't know what he can be. Now, those are washed this year. He's going to have a normal season. And as long as he stays healthy, he is going to be, he's going to have no reason to not go out there and shove and be the best version of himself. So if he isn't, then I mean, again, then this whole thing is a bust. I still think if after all of a sudden done, you get one really good season out of Jordan Montgomery. This ends up not being nearly as bad of a signing as it appears to be at this moment right now in time.

Starting point is 00:12:30 What is like if you had to name an ERA that you would be satisfied with in 2025 for Montgomery? Like assuming that he stays reasonably healthy, like if he has a four and a half ERA, is that, is that okay? It would probably have to be a lower 4ERA closer to 4. You know, like maybe nothing about 4.25. And again, that might be splitting hairs there between what you just said and reality. But the closer to 5 it is, the more it's going to just still feel like a huge disappointment

Starting point is 00:13:05 compared to these other numbers that he's had throughout his career. So I would have to see something more like that career ERA at 4.03, Jesse. Or honestly, I mean, to be satisfied, to be like happy with them. Yeah, to be happy with the contract as a whole. Sub four. Like, and honestly, yeah, it doesn't even have to be great. But sub four ERA, which is pretty damn good, is still enough for me to feel like, well,

Starting point is 00:13:32 last year sucked. We washed it. It's rough that it happened. But this is the guy that, that we were hoping we could get. I still think, you know, again, that this team, even though this team relied so much on offense this past season, they, they shouldn't have had to really. lie on offense so much. And this next year's team could be a

Starting point is 00:13:51 completely different animal with all of these guys in contract years with Eduardo Rodriguez healthy with everyone having a full off season versus what, you know, coming off the high and everything that they did last, you know, last postseason. It's just going to be different, I think, for this

Starting point is 00:14:07 team. I believe very strongly that the core of this team that could be a winner is still there. And I think Jordan Montgomery could be a part of that. Yeah, I guess there's like a number there's an ERA that would allow him to stay in the rotation right which obviously i don't think he really met this past year given that the diamondbacks did eventually remove him from the rotation so maybe if he has like a four and a half ERA he finds his way you know to maintaining his

Starting point is 00:14:36 job for the entire season but yeah it is another question of like what does he have to do for you to feel happy with his 2025 season and yeah i think i fall somewhere along lines of what you just said if the ERA starts with a three, or a two, I guess, would be fantastic. But if the ERA starts with a three, then, yeah, you can kind of talk yourself into 2024 just being a weird aberration and the late start. And, you know, maybe that had bigger effects than we really could have imagined. And with a normal buildup, and as you talked about earlier, the motivation of a contract year, which I think is a real thing to some extent, maybe.

Starting point is 00:15:17 maybe we do get a much better version of Montgomery in 2025. If you want to motivate me, offer me more money. You know what I mean? If you want to see the best out of me, tell me like, hey, if you do good, I'm going to give you more money than you think you're going to get, right? Like, there's no doubt for a lot of guys, especially guys in the position that all three of these pitchers are in, that they don't have all the reason to go out there and do the thing next year for themselves.

Starting point is 00:15:45 I mean, I am a bit concerned about how. like the team chemistry and such is going to be impacted by all these changes including the pitching coach changes Tony Paris chica leaving and everything else but I am maybe a little excited that what archie was talking about with Goldie coming in and maybe being a little bit of a of a clubhouse dad at this point that would he's in the right age to finally be that you've really talked yourself into to Goldie coming back you're just making the assumption it's a whole thing at this point yeah I know but Jim uh Jim Bowden I was just looking at this estimated one year $15 million for Paul Goldschmidt, which to me makes the benefit of going to Goldschmidt a lot, a lot less. Like if you're only saving a few million dollars between him and Christian Walker, it kind of feels like you should just pay Christian Walker at that point. My inclination is that Goldie gets less than 15, but, you know, he did just win an MVP two years ago. So we made the Carlos Santana comp.

Starting point is 00:16:47 Like Carlos Santana, you know, there are some similarities between the season that Goldie just had and the season that Santana had in 2020. But Santana has not been an MVP caliber player within the last few years. So Goldschmidt, his name, I mean, he's he has a case to be a Hall of Famer, right? And he's not all that far removed from performing at that level. Another thing that kind of sticks with me that Archie said yesterday in regards to Paul Golchman is that if they didn't give Paul a long-term deal, then who would be worthy of it? Who were they going to give it to?

Starting point is 00:17:20 Right. And now, I feel like the same could be said about Christian Walker. Maybe not a long-term deal, but something long-term that keeps him here based on what he has done for this team and what he is meant to this organization. So, again, that's why I think we reiterate as we cover these first basement replacements, we continue to say the best replacement for Christian Walker is Christian Walker. Yeah. And I think it goes one of those things that could go beyond, you know, just just bringing back a very talented player.

Starting point is 00:17:52 It could speak volumes to the clubhouse. So I do think, I think the situations are pretty different, right? Like Goldschmidt was a lot younger when he hit free agency. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Walker. And he was, honestly, he was like, he meant so much to the organization. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:18:09 And Walker does too. Like, to your point, Walker, I think, in terms of. just the storyline is a similarly great story like goldschmidt was taken in the eighth round emerges into a superstar. Walker, not exactly a superstar caliber player, but his story is is also remarkable like getting passed around on waivers as much as he did. The diamond backs eventually landing him and having him behind Goldschmidt and then eventually being able to,

Starting point is 00:18:33 to give him an opportunity. The storylines are similar, but I do think that there is some risks. Like if the diamond backs go out and if it takes 65 or, or $70 million over three years to get Christian Walker. Like, you know, that's his age 34, age 35, and age 36 seasons. There is some risk there. You might on the back end, like is the age 36 season?

Starting point is 00:18:57 Is Christian Walker still going to be a middle of the lineup type hitter as you're paying in, you know, $20, $25 million? I don't think that's a guarantee. But I agree with you that the best way to replace him is just to bring him back. and there's going to be some risk no matter what you do. But for someone like him, it's not all that hard to justify that risk. Well, of course, I'll tell you one great value that you can get is our diehard membership right now with our introductory offer of just $48 for a year.

Starting point is 00:19:29 That's just $4 a month. Again, you spend more on coffee than that. At least some of you do. But it is a great time to sign up and join us. Become part of the family. You get that free t-shirt from the PHNX locker. You get so much more, including all of our official content. You get those episodes of Ask Archie that are for diehards only.

Starting point is 00:19:45 You get all of Jesse's written content, which is incredible. And of course, you get access to the Discord lounge, which is the best place to be an Arizona sports fan. You also get discounts on events like our upcoming Desert Duel golf tournament out at the Raven and so much more. So make sure to join us over here and become part of our diehard family. It really is worth it just real quick. It really is worth it just for Ask Archie because the answers that Archie, you know, she gives to the questions that our diehard submit are are fantastic it's really like the best content that we ever yeah or have a have a role a small role in this case in creating uh so yeah

Starting point is 00:20:24 if you become a diehard you just get an opportunity to just ask archie bradley like whatever you want and we'll we'll ask him for you and it's pretty great so and what's insane is he's literally an open book and there's no doubt he's going to get himself in trouble on this show one these days and i can't wait for that to inevitably happen, but I will say, yeah, yesterday his answer alone on going through the arbitration process is worth the price of admission. That will release soon. It is incredible. I was going to say he might be getting not only himself, but the league in trouble.

Starting point is 00:20:53 Yeah, yeah. He might be revealing entirely too much information about a lot of things. But again, make sure to join us here. I'll say right now that introductory offer, it's a little bit more than the price of a t-shirt. So if you have considered purchasing one of our pieces of merchandise, you get that t-shirt for free plus for about $13 more you'll get yourself a whole bunch of fun content and of course you'll get all of our all of our discord uh community i guess which is sometimes the best

Starting point is 00:21:20 people to watch and be around any sporting event with sometimes sometimes talking about you elizabeth all right well on the other side of this break we are going to talk about a new potential target for the a Arizona diamond backs as far as free agency is concerned a very exciting young player that it's definitely not only the Diamondbacks interested in him, so don't go anywhere. Of course, speaking of our events, we have some wonderful events coming up at Chicken and Pickle in Glendale, which is an incredible facility for you to go play pickleball at, learn pickleball, or just meet and hang out with your friends. Right now you can sign up for our Cardinals tailgate at Chicken and Pickle.

Starting point is 00:21:58 We got an exclusive bar area for PHNX tailgates now. We got merch giveaways. There'll be yard games, drink deals, and so much more. Of course, we'll also be hanging out there. It is the best place to hang out and have a good time with us watching Cardinals. And of course, watching football, having some good food. Chicken and Pickle is an incredible place to go to even when we're not having our events. But it is even better when we're there.

Starting point is 00:22:23 We're also having our PHNX trivia night at Chicken and Pickle on November 7th at 630 p.m. Again, that's a free event. You register your team up to four people for free. I will be hosting so you'll get to come see me and this mustache live in person. And of course, you can register at go PHNX.com slash events. Head to chicken and pickle.com to see all the fun you can have at their Glendale location. Of course, also shout out to Desert Financial Credit Union.

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Starting point is 00:23:20 Well, Jesse, disappoint me. Tell me about another amazing picture that Diamondbacks are connected to that is inevitably going to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yeah, I mean, I don't know if he's necessarily going to sign with the Dodgers. There's maybe a greater than 50% chance that he does. Well, we'll get into the logistics of signing him a little bit later. The Diamondbacks do have some reported interest here. This is not just complete speculation.

Starting point is 00:23:48 And yeah, we're talking about 22-year-old Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki. We throw up his stats from the 2024 season. This is, of course, out in Japan in the NPB. These are some pretty good numbers. A 2-3-5 ERA, a whip just over one. He threw 111 innings this year, 10.5Ks per 9, 2.6 walks per 9. He was 10 and 5. These are really good numbers.

Starting point is 00:24:15 He is arguably the best pitcher in Japan right now, certainly one of the best pitchers over there. And he might be posted to be available this offseason. Again, we'll talk about that a little bit more later. But in terms of the player that he is, if he were on the open market and we're not subject to some of the restrictions that we'll talk about later. He's the kind of guy who could get $200 plus million, maybe, you know, maybe $300 plus million. We just saw Yamamoto get $325. He is that, that caliber of pitcher. He had some stronger numbers in 2023 than he did in 2024, but still a very young, young player with an incredible arsenal as far as fastball splitter slider. He's got a fastball that, you know,

Starting point is 00:25:00 is 99 miles per hour, somewhere in there, 97 miles per hour. Slyder has some incredible movement on it. I mean, he's he's definitely one of these guys that could potentially change your franchise. And we've already seen that with a few players that have come over from Japan. Obviously, show a Otani being a big, you know, a big name that you're going to immediately talk about. But also Yamamoto, you had Shoda, Imanaga with the Cubs. Like there have been some really impressive pitchers coming over here and succeeding in Major League Baseball. Yeah, yeah.

Starting point is 00:25:34 Sasaki, I mean, the level of dominance here is extremely impressive. In April of 2022, Roki Sasaki threw a perfect game with 19 strikeouts. And then he followed that up by throwing eight perfect innings to start his next outing. He unfortunately wound up giving up a hit in the ninth inning. So he wasn't able to complete back-to-back perfect games. But back-to-back perfect games are not normal. A single game, perfect games with 19 strikeouts.

Starting point is 00:26:04 also not normal. And granted, this is happening in the NPB. It is, you know, the quality of hitter there is is not quite what it is in Major League Baseball. But this is a guy who has elite level stuff. You mentioned the VLO on the fastball. 97.1 miles an hour is what that average this season. Actually, a bit of a drop off from last year. He averaged 99 miles an hour on his four seam fastball out in the NPB in 2023. Some of the movement numbers dropped a little bit this year. as well. He was about 18 hundred's, 18 inches, excuse me, of induced vertical break last year, down to about 16 inches, which is closer to average this season. For those of you who don't know, induced vertical break is basically the amount of ride on the fastball. It makes it generally

Starting point is 00:26:49 harder to hit if that number is well above the league average. So yeah, the stuff here is really impressive. The splitter is probably his best pitch at 25% swinging strike rate this year, which again was a drop off from last season when it was 31%, but still really, really impressive. So he's a guy who could come over to the big leagues. And I don't necessarily want to say he's like an ace from day one in the majors, but he very much could blossom into that,

Starting point is 00:27:20 but before too long. If there are any concerns besides the Dodgers signing him, it would be durability a little bit. He hasn't topped 100, 100 innings once. Yeah. only done it one time. Yeah, he's only done at one time. I think that would be a pretty significant concern here. You know, you've seen guys like Yamamoto and Imanaga come over from Japan recently. And you're right. Those guys are in kind of a different, a different situation where they have a

Starting point is 00:27:50 history of durability of being able to to make a whole bunch of starts and, you know, at least get somewhat close to 200 innings. That's something that we haven't seen Sasaki do. And yeah, I think beyond that, there are some concerns about what I was saying earlier about why did his stuff drop off so significantly from 2023 to 2024. Sure. It's not to say a 97 mile per hour fastball is a bad thing. But 97 is not the same as 99. And this is the guy who's 22 years old.

Starting point is 00:28:19 You're not really expecting there to be any drop off and stuff, hopefully at this stage in their career. So last season, he had a 178 ERA in the NPB, a zero. 0.75 whip compared to a 104 whip this season. So yeah, he was very good this season, but last year he was extraordinary. And it's not super clear right now why he dropped off from from last season to this season. Well, and like you said, he even had a 100 mile per hour fastball in the WBC. So that drop off to 97 is a bit more significant. Again, that 1.78 ERA. in 2023 versus the 2.35.

Starting point is 00:29:04 Not not a huge jump, but still, like you said, concern a little bit for why that's occurring. And again, there's also the fact that in general, pitchers in the MPB seem to have a little bit of an advantage with a different kind of ball, right? Their baseball isn't,

Starting point is 00:29:20 their baseball isn't as big as the MLB ball and it's like tackier, right? It is, yes, it is apparently tackier, which I guess makes it easier to, you know, spin off a breaking ball or whatnot. So yeah, I think I think you would want to factor in some regression in terms of the movement numbers on his stuff if he were to come over to the majors. And we did see that. You mentioned the 100.3 miles per hour in the WBC when he pitched here in the

Starting point is 00:29:50 US. That's a, the VLO certainly didn't drop off. 100.3. That's that's pretty good. But the movement did drop off. I mentioned earlier he was at 18.1 inches of induced vertical break on his fastball in in 2023 in the NPB compare that to 16.8 inches when he was over here in the US about a four inch drop with the arm side movement on that pitch. So yeah, you're going to see you're going to see a drop off inevitably in terms of the movement coming over to the US. But the movement numbers here are still impressive enough that even with some regression, you're still looking at a guy. who could strike out a whole lot of major league hitters. All right.

Starting point is 00:30:30 Well, we have more on Roki Sasaki on the other side of this break as well as maybe. Signing him is going to be very complicated. I'll just say that. Yeah, it's going to be complicated for a number of reasons, including the fact he might just not be available. So we are going to talk about that on the other side of this break. Don't go anywhere. I do implore you to head to brandedbills.com, though, and use RCO to P.HNX for 20%

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Starting point is 00:32:34 Well, more on Roki Sasaki, including what he will cost, of course, which is not everything. It won't be a lot. And that would only be if he was allowed to come be a part of Major League Baseball,

Starting point is 00:32:50 which his team would have to approve, right? He would have to grant him that option, which, of course, with his age, like what happened with Otani. The CBA classified Otani as an international amateur when he came in the league because he wasn't 25 years old yet. Sasaki, who's 22, would fall into that same category. Right.

Starting point is 00:33:11 Yeah. So this would be he is an international amateur. That's how he would be viewed in the process. As you said, he's not yet 25 years old. And that's just sort of how it works. So his team over in Japan, the Marines, they would receive a they would receive compensation if he were to come stateside however he would not receive very much it would be about 20 percent i believe it would be 20 percent of the value of the

Starting point is 00:33:41 contract but as an international amateur you can technically only sign a minor league deal this is a player who would probably get 300 million dollars on the open market without any restrictions who would have to sign a minor league contract with a major league team and there could still be a significant bonus, but not all that high. Teams only have your bonus pool that you can use on international amateurs. It only totals up to around 7.5 million. That's the team with the highest bonus pool every year, or this year at least, that bonus pool was only $7.5 million. And you can sort of increase that number via trade, but not by all that much. So the highest amount that any team could give Sasaki is in that range, probably just a little bit above 7,000.

Starting point is 00:34:26 and a half million maybe you could get it up to eight or nine million something like that um but yeah he's not gonna he can't get paid all that much money because he is under 25 years old um and that means that his team in japan if they're getting 20% of his contract is compensation they can't get paid they can't get paid much either right 20% of eight or nine million you're talking about probably under two million dollars uh you know compare that to yoshinobu yamoto when he signed a 325 million dollar deal this past winter, his team received over $50 million in compensation because it's based on the value of the contract. So, yeah, he would have to get permission from his, from his team.

Starting point is 00:35:08 Which he did request last year. Which he requested last year. And they declined. And it sounds like he's probably going to request it again. But they don't, it's not really in their best interest, at least not financially, to actually go through with it. And they might just decline it again. Well, and it's more than one thing, right?

Starting point is 00:35:25 they're losing a great player and they're also not receiving the compensation that they should receive. And at this point, his relationship, according to reports, is already strained with his team as a result. So, I mean, from that perspective, the team really doesn't have much motivation to approve it should he request it again this year, right? Because again, the relationship's already strained. They've already made it clear that they aren't releasing him and making him available. but I mean who knows we really don't know what what could happen we don't know how teams over there I mean this it makes the team seem a bit greedy but it also makes financial sense for yeah I mean like this is this is like you know if the diamond backs were were in in a similar position it'd be like

Starting point is 00:36:15 some team overseas wants Ketel Martte and they're gonna and they're gonna pay you like a million dollars for it that would just feel but if you wait three years they're going to pay you're going to you of 50 million dollars more. Exactly. You'd be like, well, yeah, I'm going to hold on to my best player. And, you know, if I am going to lose him, which I probably am, then I might as well cash in and get as much of a, you know, economic windfall for my franchise as I possibly can. So it's a little bit hard for me to really fault the, the Marines in this situation.

Starting point is 00:36:48 I guess they would, you know, other players might gain respect for them as an organization. maybe other, maybe they attract other top Japanese talent. If they see them going through with this and being like, no, we'll post you even though we know it's not in our best interest financially to do so. Sure. But when you see this happening, you as a player might decide, I don't want my situation to go that way. I'd rather go with the team that's going to be amicable with me in regards to a request like this. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:37:17 Shohei Otani was in a somewhat similar situation in 2017. He was also an international amateur. when he originally signed with the Angels, he didn't get very much money at all. I think it was something about $10 million, maybe it was $13 million, something in that range. But the rules were a little bit different than at that point, his team, the Nippenham fighters, were able to request any amount of money that they wanted up to $20 million as compensation. And so they requested $20 million, and that's exactly what the Angels gave them. So it was a different system back then.

Starting point is 00:37:54 In this case, the Chiba Hot Marines, I believe is what they're called. The Hot Marines. I might be, I think I missed. It's Cheba Lot. Sorry, it's Cheba Lot Marines is the name of this team in Japan. Hot Marines is better. That would be, yeah, arguably, that would be better. But yeah, in this case, they would, they only could get 20% of the value of the contract.

Starting point is 00:38:21 So it's a much different situation than Otani a few years ago. So despite there being reports that the diamondbacks are tied to Sasaki, there is a problem with the diamondbacks actually having money to sign Sasaki, right? The international signing period ends this year on December 15th. So that would be they we would have up to December 15th to sign Sasaki. Diamondbacks only have $500,000 left to spend per Nick Picoro from AZ Central. if it happened next year, they would have their full $6.9 million allotment, but they've already spent that this year. Well, so, yeah, it's a little complicated.

Starting point is 00:39:01 Yeah, next year's signing period is completely different. So they haven't spent any of the 6.9 officially. However, as we've seen year after year after year with these international amateurs, a lot of times teams have handshake agreements with these 16, 17-year-old kids from overseas, well before the signing period has even begun. So even though the Diamondbacks will get that full $6.9 million allotment, I think it's on January 15th. I want to say when that signing period would begin again, they probably already have some

Starting point is 00:39:35 players in mind that they're planning to sign with at least a portion of that money. So it's not a given that, I mean, you know, is a team going to be willing to forego all other international amateur signings in order to just get Roki Sasaki and give him the highest dollar value that they possibly can. I could understand if a team was willing to go that route, but there's so, there's so many unknowns with this process right now. Yeah. Mainly just whether he's going to be available at all that could be, could be a bit of an

Starting point is 00:40:06 obstacle. Not to mention the Diamondbacks are not the only team that is going to be interested in him. Not to mention, it's not going to just be the Dodgers. every team in major league baseball is going to take up interest in sasaki should is should he become available right so uh someone asked in the comment when would that happen we don't know i mean like we said the international sign signing period ends on December 15 so that it would that's yeah i don't know if that serves as a as a deadline of any kind uh for for the team that's a good question i'm not sure exactly when we would get news on on if he is posted but if it does

Starting point is 00:40:43 happen if he is posted at some point it will be a huge story because you know maybe corbin burns is a is a more desirable free agent certainly juan soto is a more desirable free agent this off season but outside of those guys like roki sasaki you could argue would be the third the third best free agent available and oh by the way the most he can possibly make is like 10 million dollars right every team of course would want to sign him. And the Diamondbacks, unlike some of the other situations, like with a Juan Soto, who's going to make a ton of money, the infrastructure in place here prevents teams from paying him all that much.

Starting point is 00:41:24 And so it does mean that the Diamondbacks, at least financially, could give him pretty much the exact same amount of money as any other team if they really wanted to. Here's my thing is I do think, and again, the Dodgers may not have a chance. chance of them or they might. We don't know. I'll say this though. Otani seems to be an unfair recruiting tool in a battle like this for international players, right? And Yamamoto. And I mean, because not only is there a relationship there, but we're getting to the point that young players, the age of Sasaki of like grown up looking up to Otani, right? Like, and one of the reasons why they want to come play in Major League Baseball is due to him, due to the success he's had, due to just everything. that his baseball career has been.

Starting point is 00:42:12 So the opportunity to play with him would be one that's hard to turn down, especially if it was essentially an even playing field for every team. And you got to decide which team you were going to go to just based on not one team paying you more money, but just based on where you wanted to go. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:42:28 And this is from a story at the Arizona Republic, Nick Picoro over there wrote about the possibility of Sasaki signing with the Diamondbacks recently. And this is a quote from that story. He said many in the industry believe Sasaki is all but certain to sign with the Dodgers who reportedly scouted all of his starts this season. And it does also mention that the Diamondbacks were present in some regard as well. Both general manager Mike Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Saaday were at one of his outings

Starting point is 00:43:01 late in the season, according to Nick's story here. So the Diamondbacks were among the teams that I think dedicated the most resources to scouting Roki Saki over this past year. But yeah, you're right. I mean, the Dodgers, their apparatus for recruiting these guys is probably better than anyone else's. And it feels like if they really want a player, they probably can get him. So we'll have to see how this plays out.

Starting point is 00:43:29 If it turns out he's not posted and we do wait a couple more years for Sassaki to turn 25, then you're talking about a much bigger contract. And I'm certain, you know, other other, there would still be a lot of teams involved, but it would, it would very much narrow the teams that were capable of signing him to a pretty, pretty small list. Throw major league baseball in the trash. Just though the whole league in the trash. This says this process has become unfair. And I don't like it. So anyway, we do have a little bit more to cover before we get out of here.

Starting point is 00:44:04 And that little bit more is the end of Bob Costas's play-by-play career. here. Rest in peace. And I'm sure there's a lot of Diamondbacks fans that want that man to never call another Diamondbacks playoff game ever. And we'll talk about that on the other side of this break. So please do not go anywhere. Empire Today, of course, is a valley favorite. Everybody knows Empire Today. And of course, if you are looking to upgrade your flooring in your home, shop at Empire Today. You get that at home convenience, the right product for your needs, quick and professional installation and a price match guarantee, not to mention a company that services their own warranties,

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Starting point is 00:45:44 So, of course, if you are looking to just hang out and have a great time, chicken and pickle is the place. You can join us for our official chicken and pickle tailgates out there for Cardinals' home games. And of course, you can check out. If you're new to pickleball, there are newby nights over there, which are perfect for you. You can get on the courts with others who are ready to drink and drink and drink and dink, I guess, is what we could say. There's instruction and facilitated play included and every participant gets a $10 chicken and pickle gift card. So if you want to check out what all the rage is about with

Starting point is 00:46:17 pickleball, make sure to go out there for their newbie night. Head to chicken and pickle.com to see all the fun you can have at their Glendale location. And again, a big shout out to them for hosting our Cardinals' tailgate parties. Jesse, once again, Bob Costas has retired from play-by-play broadcasting and I know after the world series run the diamond backs had last year and specifically I think it was the nLDS against the dodgers I'm sure there's a lot of diamond backs fans that aren't going to miss him doing play by play broadcasting in major league baseball he is a legend though and I don't mean to disrespect him like I obviously am doing but uh I will say that bob costas has been the voice of sports for like my life so I mean he's just an incredible person it's just

Starting point is 00:47:01 there was a lot of favoritism in his voice at times when he was calling games not exactly an unbiased down the middle individual yeah i think that's i think that's fair and there's been a lot of frustration uh from a variety of fan bases over the last few years pertaining to that we're not the only ones to complain about this he's not he's not only anti diamond backs right he has other teams he dislikes but you're right bob costis is a total a total legend of of not only major league baseball but really sports at large You know, the Olympics, it feels like he's always, he's always a big part of coverage of that event, which of course is huge, not only in the U.S., but across the globe. So, yeah, he's a legend for a reason. And I think people, sometimes you expected a broadcaster, you know, they're not the player, right? Like a broadcaster, there's not going to be any fall off in the quality of their work as they age. Yeah. But that's not the reality, right?

Starting point is 00:48:02 I think at a certain point, you know, broadcasters do in this in not the same way as players, but broadcasters also sometimes as they age, maybe they're not quite what they were, you know, during, during the prime of their career, uh, back closer to, to when they started. So I think, I think he's also like done enough different stuff that it's, it's one thing because I think some of the great broadcasters, right? You think Harry Carey. You think just some of the legends in baseball, they did it their entire lives. And they did almost get better.

Starting point is 00:48:36 Like they might not have been as sharp in some of their older years. Obviously, none of us are. Yeah, sometimes they get better too. That's a good point. But like in Bob Costas's case, I think really what it is is that he became a better interviewer and a better like host of kind of like a sports show rather than necessarily being a play by play guy, which might be how he feels. And that might be why he's retiring.

Starting point is 00:48:56 I think that, you know, when you do. interview people and you talk to people, you do have to have a certain amount of your opinion injected in there, but also just kind of keeping it open and whatever, right? Like with play by play broadcasting, I think even with great team play by play broadcasters, you still want them to be unbiased. You still kind of want them to just call it right down the middle, especially with a play by play guy. Let the color guy. You want a team broadcaster to be totally unbiased? You want Steve perfume to just be like Mr. Objectivity out there? All I'm saying is is that like in some cases some people might find being a big time homer as a play by play guy to be a little bit

Starting point is 00:49:34 too much sure right i think people just from a professional aspect some people do like the play by play guy being a professional that's what i'm saying there's a role to play right there's a role to play sure there's a role on this show that both of us play jesse's a goddamn wild man but he has to act like this on this show just to fill a certain role right meanwhile i am the the most wholesome family man you've ever met in your entire life right but this is what we are expected to be. So I mean, I think sometimes when it comes to like, again, someone like Bob Costas, especially calling, you know, national games and things like that, that's what, I mean, everybody kind of wants, everybody just wants that guy to be that. And again, his personality is,

Starting point is 00:50:13 is great. He is a great sports mind. And he's at this point, like you said, sometimes, you know, again, maybe that's it. Maybe doing multiple things has caused him to just kind of be a little bit more himself in the box whereas as a play-by-play guy you should be a little bit more you know unbiased and on particular right so i think yeah maybe there wasn't even you know leave the biased stuff aside i think just the there's a certain amount of energy that you want to bring to big moments in playoff games and it felt like that wasn't quite you know wasn't quite what you would hope it to be at least for some of the moments that that he called this season but yeah it really doesn't take away from what was an outstanding career as a broadcaster.

Starting point is 00:50:56 And of course, his, his best work, Derek, happened when he broadcasted the Piston Cup once upon a time. So you're aware of this, right? I am totally aware. Did he, did Jesse Friedman just ask me if I got a movie reference? Well, some people. That's incredible. I found that some people are, somehow they miss the fact, like Bob Cost is, he's, he

Starting point is 00:51:24 His face never shows up in cars. But he's there. But he's his voice and some people miss it. I don't know. I think I've seen this on social media recently. No, that's good stuff. Good stuff. But again, I mean,

Starting point is 00:51:35 still a legend in the game. And someone said give all of his calls to Brian Anderson. And I think we don't disagree with that. Yeah. Brian Anderson has really, really been phenomenal. And again, I mean, let's see,

Starting point is 00:51:46 that's kind of what you want. Brian Anderson has been a really good, you know, play by play guy for baseball. And I think that's that's what we want. Like you said, though, you know, sometimes no matter what, you don't stay at the top of your game. So, and that includes me over here. You know, I'm getting up there, right?

Starting point is 00:52:04 Like, I don't know if I was ever at the top of my game, but I'm definitely on the decline. We're going to force you out before you progress too much. Good, good. That's what I'm hoping for. I just want people to tell me to be honest with me. We don't want your legacy to be tarnage. Yeah, no, I appreciate it. I appreciate it.

Starting point is 00:52:21 Well, we have no more baseball, but we will be back on. Monday. Of course, we did talk a little bit about Ask Archie, but the latest edition of Ask Archie, which hasn't dropped yet, it's going to drop next week. But it's, it's incredible. And again, if you have not grabbed that diehard membership yet, make sure to do so right now. It is a limited time intro offers. So again, if you've ever been, have ever been thought, if you were thought about getting a membership, now is the absolute best time to do so. You still get all those wonderful membership benefits. And again, become part of the family over here. I'll tell you, once you it in the discord and um you see all the squirrel memes and the diamondbacks discord chat i think you'll

Starting point is 00:53:00 immediately understand that you're in the right place that you're in the place that you want to be yeah yeah absolutely yeah that's it's all it's all it's all about the memes there it's all it always has been and it always will be so speaking of low energy my god uh also speaking of just speaking of picking things up make sure not to play our night or not to miss our next edition of pH and X plays. We just dropped what was a game two of the NLDS between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Diamondbacks. Game two of the NLDS.

Starting point is 00:53:29 You'll, history was made in game two. It was one of the like, I'll just tell you this as, as a, as a preview. Neither one of us have laughed as hard as we did while watching that game. Uh, in our lives,

Starting point is 00:53:43 potentially. I said the managerial tactics of MLB, the show questionable at best. They don't line up. They don't line up with the real world, that's for sure. But we'll also be dropping, of course, game three next week as well. So don't miss out on any of that. And again, when you talk about high energy, you won't want to miss us

Starting point is 00:54:02 screaming our heads off about some of the, again, managerial decisions in these games. But of course, we appreciate you guys being here at all times. We always thank you guys for stopping by. And, of course, someone had a super chat there. It was a good question about Randall Gritchick. Let's hit that up before we get out of here. And it's our guy, Michael. said with Gritch declining his option for what I feel would have been for what I feel would

Starting point is 00:54:25 have been more than he's paid in free agency. Do you think there was a clubhouse issue? I don't think Randall Gritchick is going to get less than his is a player option, frankly. I think he had a really good season. I think this is his last chance to get a deal that might be a multi-year deal. I mean, not too long, but you know, maybe a maybe a two or three-year deal, which is probably what he's seeking. I mean, the one. one thing that we've heard again from Mr. Bradley, who shows up here from time to time, is that players are seeking that security a bit more than the annual value of those contracts sometimes.

Starting point is 00:55:00 Yeah, yeah. I think it's a fair point. Like, you know, it's a $6 million option. Is Grishick guaranteed to make more than six in 2025? I don't think so. But there's a good chance he could. I think there's a pretty good chance he could. And it's also what you're saying about a multi-year deal versus just a one-year deal.

Starting point is 00:55:18 If you have an opportunity to go get a two-year deal, then, you know, as long as there isn't a huge difference in what the average annual value would be, you probably would rather have that security, you know, be able to move somewhere and be able to stay there for a while. Of course, trades and, you know, there are other factors of play there. I mean, getting injured and just having that security of having another option, you know, or another year on your career. I mean, there's a hundred percent. There's a lot of security there, even in a two-year deal versus a one-year deal. So of all the players that I could possibly, you know, wonder if there was a clubhouse issue. Randall Gritchick, I mean, I don't think any Diamondbacks players are they have a lot of players where that is very clearly not an issue. But Grishick is certainly one of them.

Starting point is 00:56:03 It seems like a seem like he was a really great guy and a great veteran presence to have around. And he did make a lot of sacrifices this year, right? We talked a lot about how he could have had maybe should have had a bigger role than he did for much of the season. And yet he was very willing to just show up every day and, you know, kind of ride the bench and wait for a left-handed pitcher to enter the game. And he had a lot of success doing that. Yeah, he absolutely did. Someone else asked, since Jock hasn't declined his option yet, does that mean that he's going to return? I don't think that's the case just yet.

Starting point is 00:56:36 I do. You have five days from the end of the World Series to exercise an option. So, I mean, maybe some of these decisions have been made and they just haven't been reported out yet. Right. So, yeah, I wouldn't read it all into the timing of any of these things. We're going to know about all of them here within a few days. Well, we thank you guys so much for stopping by. Like I said, we will be back on Monday with another Mailbag Monday episode.

Starting point is 00:57:02 So make sure to join us for that. In the meantime, make sure to follow us on Twitter. I am at cap underscore caveman with a K. This man is at Jesse N. Friedman. Of course, big, not big, excuse me, large intimate. Kevin is on the ones and twos. You can follow him at Kev Tom Wrights. I'm not going to explain to you how to find him there.

Starting point is 00:57:20 He's not even going to put his Twitter handle up. It's a fun mystery for you guys to figure out how that's spelled. Our show is at PHNX underscore D-Backs, but of course all roads do lead to at PHNX underscore sports on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. We appreciate you guys for stopping by so much. We will see you guys on Monday. And in the meantime, have yourselves a wonderful weekend. It's a great, it's a new month.

Starting point is 00:57:41 Let's let's have a great start to this month. It's nice outside there. It's beautiful outside. Let's hope the Diamondbacks can make some moves and help them make be a better team next year. And of course, remember kids, baseball is fun, but it's so much more fun. I guess if Jordan Montgomery didn't pick up that option for next year.

PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Diamondbacks Set Sights on Japanese PHENOM Roki Sasaki, Jordan Montgomery Exercises Option

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