PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Does Dylan Cease Trade Lift Padres Above Diamondbacks In Crowded NL West?

Episode Date: March 14, 2024

The NL West just got a little bit tougher with the breaking news that the Padres have traded for Dylan Cease. We discuss what this means for the Diamondbacks and the rest of the division. We also discuss Merrill Kelly’s second outing of spring, people thinking Corbin Carroll is NOT being top 50 baseball player, and which D-backs player Fangraphs thinks will have a breakout season.SUBSCRIBE to our YouTube: https://bit.ly/phnx_youtubeALL THINGS PHNX: http://linktr.ee/phnxsports PHNX Events: Get your tickets to Suns Takeovers, Coyotes & Suns Watch Parties at BetMGM, and MORE here: https://gophnx.com/events/Arizona Lottery: Visit http://www.AZAdventure.com for more information on how you can take an adventure with the Arizona Lottery and for a chance to win $1 million in cash and Arizona travel prizes! PrizePicks - Download the PrizePicks app today and use code PHNX for a first deposit match up to $100! Pick more. Pick less. It’s that Easy!NASCAR Weekend at Phoenix Raceway: March 8-10! Find more information at https://www.phoenixraceway.com/spring/ on the Shriners Children's 500, and be on the lookout for racing content from PHNX!Desert Financial Credit Union: Open a free checking account online with Desert Financial Credit Union and get $200 in bonuses https://www.desertfinancial.com/200Empire: Schedule a free in-home estimate with Empire Today! Receive a $350 OFF discount when you use the promo code PHNX. Restrictions apply. See https://empiretoday.com/phnx for details.Sign up for Gila River Resorts & Casinos $1,000,000 Big Red’s Showdown! Stay in the game and get rewards; it’s that easy! https://www.gilamilliondollarshowdown.com/Gametime: Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code PHNX for $20 off your first purchase.Circle K:  Join Inner Circle for free by downloading the Circle K app today! Head to https://www.circlek.com/store-locator to find Circle Ks near you!OGeez!: OGeez! is not your average cannabis-infused gummy. Head over to https://www.ogeezbrands.com to find where you can purchase. Must be 21+. Enjoy responsibly. Four Peaks: Follow on social @fourpeaksbrew & @fourpeakspub! Must be 21+. Enjoy responsibly. Someburros: 20% off your order of up to $100 when you use code PHNX at checkout for the whole month of March at https://www.someburros.com/When you shop through links in the description, we may earn affiliate commissions. Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome in and ski to you all. This is another edition of the PHMX D-BACs podcast right here on PHMX. And I am already saddened by the NL West continuing to get tougher. My name is Derek Monti, occasionally known as your mayor, PHNX. This is my vice mayor, your thunderstick, Jesse Friedman. And Jesse, it appears that Dylan Sees will in fact be a San Diego Padre. Did you really think Dylan Sees wasn't going to be in the NL West by the by the start of regular season. I don't know why I thought that. How naive of you. That was stupid of me. All top

trade targets wind up in the NOS. That's just how it works. I guess Corvin Burns went to the Orioles. But anyway, yeah, a big, big move today. It kind of seemed like Dylan Sees was just going to stay put in Chicago. And, you know, he has two years of control. Maybe the White Sox would just revisit it at the trade deadline and maybe they could have gotten more then. But that is, that is not actually what happened. It's the San Diego Padres land Dylan C's. in a trade and now have a very formidable starting rotation at least at the top i think i think they have probably one of the best one through threes in the league at this point with uh with dylan c's u darvish and joe musgrove i'm not sure exactly how they would order those guys uh but

that's a that's a pretty formidable front three after that there are some questions i imagine michael king will be in the fourth slot maybe matt waldron uh knuckleball throwing matt waldron uh in the five slot for the podres that's kind of how things project out right now. But yeah, Dylan Sees goes to the Padres and that is not good news, not good news for the Diamondbacks and the rest of the NL West. The White Sox get the kind of package

back that they were seeking as far as a team that's rebuilding. We know Josh Barfield very well and we know that that was probably a big piece of them trying to get that organization back on track. They receive in regards to the Padres top prospects. They receive

their number five prospect, their number seven prospect, their number eighth and another prospect. Drew Thorpe, right-handed pitcher, was the White Sox number five, uh, number five overall prospect. Acquired in the Juan Soto trade,

just a couple of months ago. Just got him. And now here they are, uh, trading them off. Uh, Samuel Zavala, number seven.

Uh, he is an outfielder, right-handed pitcher, uh, high, hi, hiero, uh,

I'm giving it my best shot. I think that's pretty good. All right. It sounds pretty good to me. Uh, and then Stephen Wilson. uh, so those four players for Dillard

and cease and cease again like you said he does make the Padres along with seemingly all the other teams in the NL West have really good three man rotations now in their starting rotation yeah yeah I guess the Rockies maybe maybe less so but yeah Padres Giants diamond backs Dodgers I mean all all of those all of those teams I never mean the Rockies what I'm talking about the Rockies are like when I say the NLS got more formidable I don't mean the Rockies when I mean that, you know, everybody's getting better. I'm never talking about the Rockies, but Padres definitely got better. And this is a Padres team that didn't do a lot in regards to, you know, free agency doing, making a lot of moves.

In fact, you can argue that they got worse by, you know, trading away Juan Soto. Pretty clearly got worse. Yeah. And I mean, now, you know, of course, they have a lot of, once again, they have a lot of very good players, you know. They have a lot of good players, a lot of great players, even. but just not a lot of depth, not a lot, you know, when you look around, you know, they're, they're starting lineup and, and, you know, parts of their team, they still, they still leave a lot to be desired. Yeah, I, this is, this is interesting. You know, I, I wouldn't say that the

White Sox did poorly here. I mean, Drew Thorpe, I think, has a chance to be a really good starting pitcher. The Diamondbacks face Jew Thorpe against the Padres literally yesterday, if my days in my head are correct right now, you could make a case, Derek, that if the Diamondbacks had come out and just shellacked Drew Thorpe yesterday instead of Drew Thorpe kind of dominating the Diamondbacks, maybe this trade doesn't happen.

I guess that's my tin foil hat theory. I wouldn't put any stock in it whatsoever. But, yeah, I don't think the White Sox got any... Like, in my mind, if you were the White Sox, you were going to hold on to Dillon Seas unless you got that. got. Like, unless you got that one marquee prospect and, you know, maybe it was part of a package.

Maybe there's a few other guys. But, you know, I figured the White Sox were shooting high in terms of the top player that they got in a trade. And, you know, I think Drew Thorpe, again, I think he has a chance to be a good starting pitcher. But he's not quite the class of prospect that I saw headlining this type of a deal. Right. I think if you're the, if you're the Padres, you know, you're giving up a lot here. I threw it in the baseball trade values machine thing, which it's not necessarily very accurate.

They have this being basically even. They have Dylan's cease being worth $42.4 million worth of value and the White Sox acquiring $44.5 million worth of value. So basically even from their standpoint based on the projections or whatnot for some of the youngsters moving forward. Yeah, I don't think the White Sox did badly, but I'm not at all blown away by what they acquired here. Dylan Cease is under contract essentially for two more seasons, right? So you have, he was arbitration eligible this year and next year. And he got $8 million this year for his contract. And that is not a lot of money to be paying to be paying a player of Dylan Cesar's caliber.

Right. So like when you talk about the White Sox looking for a lot, you know, in return for him. Yeah. I think that this isn't a guy that is on the final year of his deal or anything like that. right like this is a guy that is going to be under team control and honestly is going to make your starting rotation much better no matter what team he went to right so uh i just it it just frustrates me and and again again it makes sense because if you even if you even want to put up the illusion to your fan base that you are attempting to keep up with the dodgers in the

national league west you had to do something you had to make a move right and the only team that didn't the only team that didn't get better is the team that really doesn't care about creating that illusion for their fan base the rockies just seemed to be fine we know we are talking about the rockies oh i was oh i'm talking about the rockies not this time i guess i guess i i'm contradicting myself from earlier when i said i wouldn't speak about them but no like they don't care about like that because the rockies really haven't cared about that in a while about like making their fans happy at least with the appearance that they're attempting to get better right but the Padres do kind of have to do that here you know and and right now it's not to say

that any of the other teams including the Diamondbacks in the NL West are better than the Dodgers however the Diamondbacks at least beat the Dodgers in the playoffs last year and they made their team better you know so the diamondbacks are much at least doing their best to in reality keep up with the Dodgers even though nobody really can when they're spending over a billion dollars yeah this is this is interesting for the Padres uh I wouldn't exactly say that like as you said earlier Dylan Cese is under team control for two more seasons so this is the kind of move that you make if you feel you have a chance to really do something in the next two years do we feel that way about the Padres after they traded Juan Soto with the roster they have right now it's a

little bit hard for me to see but you know they they they think they were a better team last year than their final record showed they finished the season well They had a very good run differential that didn't necessarily, you know, translate to as many wins as you'd expect. But I guess from their standpoint, the perspective is U. Darvish is 37 years old. Manny Machado might not have that many great years left in him. They're under, they've got several of these guys under contract until they're like 58 years old for better or worse. So if you're the Padres, you're just like, you know, while we still have a shot, like while we still have a shot with some of these guys, before they get to an age where they're just not going to be effective baseball players anymore,

which feels inevitable with a lot of these contracts. You know, we give it a shot. We push the chips in. The Padres have a good farm system and have for a long time. It allows them to make trades like this and not feel the effects in ways that I think a lot of other teams would. So I think I get it from the Padres standpoint. I don't know if I get it, but I guess I can see it. it's an interesting move for them.

Yeah, I definitely agree. And I don't want to talk about the Padres anymore because we are going to have to see them more than we see other teams, but not nearly as much as we've had to see NL West teams in the past. But Merrill Kelly made his second outing today out there at Salt River Fields against the aforementioned Rockies that I have been dunking on. And he was not as good as his first outing there, you know, back when he kind of cruised through. on like 26 pitches, but still went out there and was fairly effective. Three innings pitch, five hits, two earn runs, no walks, four strikeouts, 47 pitches, 33 of which were strikes. The interesting thing about Merrill is that once again he reiterated for us today

that Merrill is not holding back when it comes to spring training. Like he's not trying to disguise or maybe not throw certain pitches because he knows he's going to see the Rockies a lot. He had a completely different perspective about that. Yeah, I think Zach Gallen in general is just a lot more guarded about guys. You know, he doesn't want to tip his hand. He doesn't want to show other teams pitches. Yeah, Brandon Fott was trying not to throw his slider in his entire routing against the Dodgers.

And that didn't go too well. Nope. But Merrill Kelly, I think, is just in a different place where he throws six pitches. And when you throw six pitches, you're like, yeah, I don't really care what they see. They're still not going to know what's coming when the real games start. So, yeah, it's a different situation. for Merrill Kelly. He has a different perspective. And he got knocked around a little bit.

There was some hard contact in his outing today. But, you know, nothing I would read too much into. I think he left a couple changeups in some bad spots. But by and large, he continues to look like Merrill Kelly. There's nothing concerning from a stuff standpoint. His Velo is pretty dang close to where it was last year. So, yeah, I wouldn't be in the slightest bit concerned about Merrill Kelly from what we saw today. You asked him about his change up today.

and basically how he felt throwing it. He said it was good except for one. This is what Merrill Kelly had to say about his changeup and about working more on his slider than that particular pitch. Other than the one to Blackman, it was good. I put some work into it this week. I think, like I said, last week just needed to throw it a little bit more.

I'd been putting a little more emphasis on the slider. So I just needed to just feel it and see it come out of my hand a little bit better, and it's definitely getting back to where I want to see it. Do you feel like the slider being a newer pitch, maybe that needs more attention. You kind of figure the change up is just going to kind of be there for you. Yeah, and that's the thought, right? Going into it, I know I've thrown my change up for a long time now.

You know, it's kind of been the pitch that I've gone to when I needed something. The slider is obviously something that I want to make more consistent and more into a usable pitch. So the emphasis coming into spring was definitely put more emphasis on the slider. And, you know, sometimes when you do that, the other feel for the rest of the pitch is kind of isn't as sharp. Yeah, and I mean, the slider really is the thing. thing that he needs to work on. We talked about that about spring. I think someone asked it up earlier in the chat, but, you know, again, it's the reason why there is no concern about the record. There is no concern about some of these results. I mean, you can't really say that Merrill went out

and threw three innings and gave up two run runs and five hits as a good outing. But Merrill felt good about it because of what he was working on while he was out there and just some of the things that he was trying to do. And yes, Michael, there was a Jag cameo, not the Jack cameo where he asked Merrill, what is he going to write about today? Which is a real question, Jack asked Merrill, what should he write about today?

But Merrill on his slide. If you can get the players to just tell you what is it right about? He did. It would have been fantastic for all of us. Look, Theo, let's pull back the curtain. Teo's helping us playing shows, you know, Teo Mackey.

We'll get our input from wherever we can, including the players. If they want to help us play in this show, we'd be happy to have them. But of course, it makes all the sense in the world while he's continuing to work on the slider. That change-up is good. He knows it's going to be good. Yeah, the Merrill Kelly change-up is a very, very good pitch.

And as you heard there, it is a pitch that he's thrown for a while. It's been a very good pitch for a while, and he hasn't really focused on it much to this point in spring. And I think some of the struggles that you saw today were simply because the Merrill-kelly change-up wasn't, you know, what we've seen it be in the past. His command of that pitch was not as good as we've seen in the past. And, you know, once he just has enough reps where he's thrown it enough to get the feel back for it,

it's probably going to come back and be fine. And yeah, I'm not concerned about Merrill Kelly at all. I believe he was asked if he thought that spring training was too long. And he kind of, you know, said he needed it this year, right? Like, and he still doesn't feel ready yet for the regular season. and I think that's the question. Like we're all feeling that. We're all ready for opening day.

We're ready for regular season games. But Merrill, he had a long year last year. I mean, that's something to keep in mind is not only did he have his performances in the postseason, but he also started his season early with competitive games with the WBC. And I asked him about, you know, if this year was different for him versus last year with, I mean, just in general, how many innings he pitched last year. and if you had to approach coming into camp any differently this season. A little bit, obviously, I knew that last year I had to be ready for real live games a lot sooner than this year.

But otherwise, mentality, body-wise, and feel everything's pretty much the same. I just knew I needed to be ready for, you know, more intensity last year than I do this year. And that makes sense because obviously spring training games, you kind of hope you feel some intensity, but it's got to be hard to muster that up for a meaningless spring training game. Yeah. Yeah. And I think for Merrill this spring really couldn't be more different in some ways where last year he was pitching in the WBC and that kind of changed everything at a very significant

point in time where pitchers across the league were trying to adapt to the pitch clock and figure out what life what the pitch clock was like. And Merrill was getting ready for the WBC and pitching in the WBC where. they weren't using it. And I think that set him back a little bit in terms of getting acclimated to the pitch clock and what that was like. So yeah, a very different situation here where instead of starting early,

he's starting late. But yeah, he seems to be doing just fine up to 47 pitches today, as you said earlier. And the plan is for him to get to about 75 to 80 in his last spring training start. And then, you know, be comfortably into the mid-90s in his first start of the regular season.

That's what Tori described today. So if all goes according to plan, there's not a ton of leeway in this plan. But if all goes according to plan, both Zach Gowan and Mero Kelly should be able to throw in the mid-90s in their first starts of the regular season. Heraldo Perdomo scratched today due to an awkward slide that he took in Tuesday's game. He did stop by to tell me he loves the show. Big fan. Nice. So he's fine.

Everything's fine. He let me know he's fine. He wouldn't have said that if he wasn't. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. day for you.

Not a big concern. Jase Peterson played shortstop today. Had one ball hit his way. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, which is kind of just the, the difficulty of spring training,

right, is you're trying to, we talked about this with the Mn-Ravara the other day. I want to get out there. I want to flash some weather. Yeah, you give a guy like six or seven innings shortstop and gets one ball hit his way the entire game. It's just part of baseball,

I suppose. It was. He did have to charge in a little bit, kind of charging in, going to his left a little bit, made a nice throw on the run. So he did he did look like a shortstop on the one play that we saw today. He did.

I talked with Tori after the game about, you know, if that makes it more difficult to get a read on guys defensively when you can give them opportunities. And then they just like don't ever have the ball hit to them. And Tori said that, you know, he just has to watch everything, like everything on the backfields. You know, he has to be really dialed in on what he's seeing from an arm strength perspective and all of the drills that they're doing and all that. because yeah there's i don't think there's any way you could possibly make a shortstop judgment uh you know solely off of the handful of games where these guys are going to actually play in the cactus league there's just there's just not enough reps to go around this time of year yeah you're right uh Tori talked about obviously this time of year now getting to be uh that

you wake up you go the same time of day every day uh but he did fill us in on something that definitely derails my entire thought process and I can't even keep on track with stats and updates from spring training because Tori started talking about taking boxing classes and taking out some of his aggression from the night before a little bit when he's in class. This is what Tori had to say about being terrible at boxing. It's the same day.

You know, I get up at five. Either I go to work out here or go to a boxing class and then come here. It's every single day. It's about it. Boxing. You good at boxing? No, I'm terrible. Terrible.

It's very exhausting. Terrible. I'd get my ass kicked. Steve says something you don't like? No. It's take out my frustration. So I've been doing it for a while, right? The instructor was like a couple years ago,

instructor was like, he had a bad date last night, huh? That's where you're really taking out on that bag of my mind. God damn right, I am. So it gets out some anger. Which of your fellow managers would you least like to see you across from you? In the ring? Every one of them.

I'd get my ass kick by just about every one of them. Ron Washington's going to take you then? Easily. There's probably about two or three umpires I could probably take. And that's it. He's not giving himself enough credit there. No. No, come on.

He says he can't take any managers, Jesse. Do you believe that for a second? I mean, I know at least three managers. He could take it a fight. Who do you, who do you got? I got Rob Thompson. Okay. I know he could take Rob Thompson and a fight.

I think that's probably fair. Rob Thompson, uh, he's 60 years old. Rob Thompson is slightly older. Exactly. Yeah, I'm going for age here. Pat Murphy? Bud Black. You mean to tell me he's not kicking Bud Black's ass, Jesse?

Come on. Yeah, Bud Black is 66 years old. That's fair. I didn't target just old people, but I think you did target old people. But I feel like he could beat up everybody. Who? Bochie. Oh, yeah, no, I told him.

I'm not fucking with Bochy. No. I'm not even, I don't even consider Bruce Bochy as somebody. I can't beat Bruce Bochie to fight. I know Tori couldn't. He'd kill me. Yeah. I mean, Ron Washington, though.

I think he could take Ron Washington. I think he's, I mean, Ron Washington is kind of a legend. And so I get that, you know, it'd be a little bit sticky business on the record to say that you could take out Ron Washington in a boxing match if you're a major league manager. So I understand Tori maybe not wanting to say. that but uh i mean ron washington is in his 70s man yeah i think tori could take ron i mean i think tory would get some scouting reports here i think he would do some analytics you would find out who has bad knees who has bad hips yeah he'd get stromy out there yeah oh absolutely he's getting stromy in the analytics team mike fitzgerald dan herrin has to get involved with this yeah yeah and

100 is going to bring him some um some stack cast data he said he could beat some umpires right he could he could beat up some umpires um lance barksdale comes to mine you can look him up tell me if i'm wrong some of these umpires are very intimidating i get it you kind of have to be to be an umpire maybe it's the shoulder pads i wanted to put angel hernandez on this list i couldn't i can't determine if angel hernandez is yoked or not i cannot determine if this man has a thick neck and back area because it's there's a lot of padding there but i do know he could take Andy Fletcher. Positive about that.

Another umpire to look. And of course, Dan Bolino. Mm. I mean, Dan Bolino is the younger guy, right? Oh, yeah,

I wasn't going on age on that one, Jesse. I was going on softness. Dan Belino is 40. San W-F-T soft. He's 45 years old. It's about 13 years younger than Tori Laval.

Yeah, I don't care. Tori Sprye. I'm not doing this based all on age. Maybe some of the managers were. but yes and groundhog mama's right strong would absolutely absolutely be the micky in his corner can eat lightning and crap thunder tour you know something like that scott scott service maybe oh yeah that's a good one that's a good one yeah you got to do your research before we come on the show pal you can't just be looking these up now no i i he was on my list what else you got on my list anybody else um

i wondered about uh dave martine but i would i would lean i would lean toward no there we did did see Dave Martinez do an incredible thing at home play last year arguing. Yeah. Yeah. That was full on insanity. That man is crazy. If he has the chutzpah to do that, then I don't think you want to, I don't think you want him in a box. No, that's a crazy motherfucker.

You do not want to touch that guy. Yeah, no, not at all. Not at all. But, yeah, I don't, I don't know. Who else? Dave Roberts. Tori versus Dave Roberts. I don't know.

Damon, you want to get that on this? I don't know about that. He'd smoke him. Tori would smoke Dave Roberts. Just like we smoke the Dodgers in the playoffs. There is. I needed to give him a chance to do that. Yeah, we just have to give Damon a chance to dunk on the Dodgers every show.

Can you sweep a boxing match? Yeah. Like just sweep every round. Yeah. That's what what Tori would do to Dave Roberts. I think so. You can't do that. Well, we do appreciate you guys being here in the PHA10 Sports YouTube channel to discuss

who Tori Loblo could be in a fight with us. Of course, if you haven't subscribed to this, channel yet make sure to do so now sign up for notifications that way you don't miss whenever this show goes live or whenever our other wonderful shows go live and leave us a thumbs up we always like our likes if you're listening on the audio podcasting side make sure you subscribe over there as well leave us a review we always appreciate those five-star reviews and your feedback as well of course if you haven't done so already make sure you download the bet mjm sports book app if you sign up right now and use our code of phnx you can get yourself

$150 in bonus bets instantly for just making one $5 bet. And then you just check out our man Shane who's back and doing the PHNX bets. Get all the advice that you need on the upcoming basketball games, football games. I don't know, whatever. I'm told that they're, I got really excited earlier because I thought we signed Sean Murphy. And then they said it was Sean Murphy bunting. And I was like, oh, why would you make Sean Murphy bunt?

That doesn't make any sense. On Earth with a diamond back signed Sean Murphy. I don't know. The Braves just extended him for like the rest of his life. I don't know. It's not signing, trading, you know, whatever. But anyway, I definitely don't know that kind of stuff. But what I do know is we'll get you set up. Of course, if you use that code of PHNX, all you got to do is sign up for the BetMGM Sportsbook app and use that bonus code of PHNX.

Place your first bet MGM sportsbook wager through the Sportsbook mobile application for at least $5. You will receive $150 instantly in additional winnings regardless of your wager's outcome. Check out the show notes for full details. and now listen to Damon talk about the disclaimer. All right, well, of course, if you want to escape to a tropical getaway like Puerto Rico, you can do it right here in town with our friends at Heela River Resorts and Casinos, because no one does it better. They offer an authentic and immersive experience for you to either have your lovely staycation,

wonderful night out, or just go watch some amazing sports over there. They have an unprecedented level of entertainment and excitement that you won't find anywhere else in the desert. Their state-of-the-art gaming floor has over 800 slot machines, Blackjack tables, live table games, and Arizona's largest casino sportsbook. You do you at Heela River Resorts and Casinos. Visit play atheela.com for more details. Well, Jesse, I was on Twitter today, and I saw our friends at Foolish Baseball acting very foolish.

You know, we don't like this. I don't know. I don't know if this was a troll. I don't know. Is he trolling us? Probably. Yeah, we think so. I think he probably is.

Bailey over at Foolish Baseball. you're not putting one over on us because according to his top 50 list for baseball players, he left Corbyn Carroll off the list. Corbyn Carroll is not one of the 50 baseball players that are on this list. Can we get a screenshot of this list up there? Because you might not be able to see it. It's kind of small. But still, this is the list.

It starts off good, right? Shohei Otani. Yep, we're on the right track. See a lot of names peppered in there. But Jesse, being the eagle eye, he is, quickly noticed that there was no Corbyn Cochering Carol on this list. Then he noticed Gabriel Moreno there at 42nd and Zach Gallen at 48, thus having foolish baseball tell us that they are predicting Gabby Moreno to be the best player on the Arizona Diamondbacks next season. We said some very nice things about Gavin Moreno on this show yesterday. We did.

We did not say that Gavin Moreno is the best player on the Arizona Diamondbacks. I think that's maybe a little bit, a little bit. too far at this point at least. Because, yeah, this guy named Corbyn Carroll plays for the debacks and he finished fifth and MVP voting last year. And he won the NL Rookie of the Year award and he had 25 homers and still over 50 bases.

And he was asked, of course, Fulish baseball was asked. Why is Corbyn Carroll not on your list? What was his reason, Jesse? His response was, if I can find it. His response was he wouldn't be that good if he wasn't fast. That is what he said, yes.

which is uh i mean i guess that's somewhat fair excuse me um jesse stop it but but the but the point is he is he both sidesing this right now i'm not i'm not how is i'm saying they how is that fair i mean and again i think that he's just messing with us here i don't see i don't think i didn't wish baby we actually without show hey freeman and bets that's what i'm going to do tomorrow yeah there we go yeah that's how we retaliate top 50 top 100 list he has mike trout as number two we should have known that it was a scam right there see that but that's the thing though it's like there there is a level of egregiousness with a number of different things on on this list but there's nothing so obviously like oh he's obviously like just messing with us right this list is at least reasonable enough it was an odd job it is it is

like you could get yourself to believe that it is real. And yet because Foolish Bailey is just a really smart guy in general, and I have a high level of regard for the content that he produces, I refuse to believe that this is actually his top 50 list because that respect that I've developed over the years would simply go out the window instantly if this is actually his list. But yeah, yeah, Corbyn Carroll, it turns out, is quite fast. And yes, that is a big reason why he is.

the player that he is. But, you know, other people are saying, well, you know, show Hey, Otani, like, if he wasn't a good pitcher, like, he wouldn't be that, you know. Showy O'Honnie, if he didn't. He didn't hit the ball so hard. He wouldn't be so good. You know, you could make similar arguments with a number of other guys. So, yeah, I think he's just messing with us here.

But he was probably just trying to, like, get a bunch of attention. And here we are talking about this list on our podcast. Mission accomplice. accomplished mission accomplished. Shout out to you. Shout out to you. You got us. You got us. Foolish, foolish Bailey. Well, in looking at Corbyn Carroll's projections, right, we do know that we did a show about this exact same time last year where we titled it, you know, Corbin Carol's projections for 2023 are out of this world, basically, or crazy, right? Like, because his projections

for this season didn't even make sense. And yet somehow he lived up to that, right? And so a lot of the projections for next year are very, very, similar there's not a huge difference in some of this and and honestly like zips uh has him you know in a couple of different have a have about like a 4.4 war um uh or excuse me 4.7 war um wait steamer sorry steamer 4.7 we got fan graphs 4.9 zips 4.5 so like it's all around there like it's it's a little bit of a step back from this year and of course a lot of the projections are conservative but it's not like he is being projected to kind of have like the drop off that we see like a eunio swera is kind of projected to have which still yeah doesn't make sense and seems largely based

on maybe his age and and things of factors like that right but corbin carroll is still trending in the direction to be you know the same player that he was last year so there's no indication that we're going to see him drop off in any way it wouldn't be surprising though because the the the book is out right like the the sure he's not going to catch anybody by surprise this year. And I don't think he really did there towards the end of the season. I think the, you know, the scouting report was out on Corbyn Care. Everybody knew what to expect out of him.

And I think that they still did it. He still did a great job. You know, he just, it's going to be interesting to see how he continues to adapt to be, you know, as basically as productive as he was last year. Yeah, it was, uh, it was a pretty, pretty darn good first full season for one, Corbyn Carroll. And, you know, I do think that with any rookie who bursts on the scene and has that kind of season, there's always some risk that opposing teams figure him out a little bit. And I think we actually saw some of that during the season, right? Corbyn Carroll, if you look at his numbers in July and

August, he wasn't the same player that he was, you know, first few months of the season. He was the frontrunner for the MVP, you know, in the MVP conversation for a while. You could certainly make that argument. It kind of faded a little bit toward the end. So I do think there are, you know, there are maybe still some questions, you know, can Corby and Carol find a way to, uh, showcase the same power that he did in the first couple months last year? That power did drift a little bit toward the end of the year. Really kind of after the whole shoulder stuff happened. Yeah. Uh, we didn't see the same level of power from Corbyn Carroll. I think he slugged about 400 in the playoffs. So there wasn't a ton of power there either, even though, you know, he still hit like a

450 foot homer off Corbin Burns. And, you know, there was still still. signs of it here and there for sure. But yeah, I, you know, I think the projections have it right that, you know, kind of setting the bar right around where he was last year, maybe a little bit lower. But there's a, there's a sense in the baseball world at large that Corbyn Carroll could come out and build on what he did last year too. You know, people have, I've heard discourse about 30 homers and 60 stolen bases. I don't think that's out of the question. Eight for 22 so far in the month of March. He has a 364 batting average. and yeah he looks like he's coming along i mean he i don't i don't think corbin carroll is one of those guys

i think he's like merrill kelly like corvin carroll's going to go out there even in spring training and just have his foot on the pedal completely and he's going to be you know going full speed the whole time right but uh i i definitely have seen him kind of heating up as spring training has gone on and i think that uh you know he had a let's see he had like a three for three day March 1st. He had two for three the other day against Oakland A's. So I think Corbyn is going to be just fine. And I think he's going to continue to be the incredible baseball player that we know he's going to be.

And no, I know. Everybody's saying it. Elise says, I mean, I thought it was obvious. Yeah, maybe he got us a little bit. But Jesse and I did like, we were like, wait, why is it? Like, we did a lot of, we found a lot of guys in that list that don't belong there. So it just, why? Why are we doing this?

Why are we doing this? Why are you hurting our feelings by leaving Corbyn Carroll off and then saying it's just because he's fast? He's a good baseball player. You know, you know exactly what you were doing, Bailey. I just, yeah, I just feel like if I were to go out and try to really, you know, make the internet explode at a top 50 list, I would have made it more ridiculous, right? I wouldn't have put Otani at number one, you know, Acuna is at number four, which yeah, Acuna at number four doesn't really make sense. but also it's number four. I mean,

it's not, it's not like you put Acuna at number 25, right? Saying Gabby's going to be our best player isn't even that far-fetched. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. It's not. That's just a very respectful take on Gabby Moreno.

And I mean, I do think it's, I do think it's a little bit crazy to expect that for that to be your baseline expectation going into the season. But yeah, Gabby Marano is a really good player. You know, it's not,

they didn't put like one of the Diamondbacks, like fringe players who's trying to make the roster as the best player on this team. So anyway, I guess, yeah, Foolish baseball is playing with our minds

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And I know we're hungry, and I know exactly where Damon's going after we leave here, and that's illegal piz. So if you want to do a little impromptu meet and greet with Damon Dog, find him at illegal pizza. I'm not going to tell you which one. You're going to have to figure that out on your own. But it is your go-to spot for everything you need for deliciousness. They have the queso, they have the custom cocktails.

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every single day. Illegal Pete, your go-to spot for burritos, buddies, and beer. Derek, have you ever been to or have you ever seen Harry Potter or read the books? Yeah. I would say that... Crazy question, is that to ask me? Well, that's a crazy question. Okay.

It was more just for storytelling purposes on the podcast. Yeah. Apologize. In Harry Potter, there's a thing called a horrocks. There is a horrocks, yeah. That is what I do at every illegal pizza location. Oh. I cut off some living, breathing part of me that exists at that location for all times.

That's disgusting. So that I am at every single location at once. That's how much I love. illegal piece. That's gross. That's gross. That's horrifying. Yeah, that's something I want to think about when I'm eating the reverse natures. Well, part of Damon is in this. No, not in the food.

Okay. Well, I'm just out of locations. There's somewhere hidden in a corner. A little bit of Damon? Oh, I don't know about that. That's terrifying. I don't know about that. But if you want to get a little bit more, Damon, you can sign up for a diehard membership. You get everything we have to offer over here. Go to go phnx.com. Grab yourself that dire

membership. Get Jesse's, all Jesse's content. Get all of our newsletters. You access to our Discord lounge. You get so much stuff, including discounts with our partners, a free t-shirt from the PHNX Locker.com, along with our welcome package, and so much more, including discounts on our events, like our upcoming pool party,

July 31st at Chase Field. Do not miss that. We want to see you guys all out there. Speaking of Fangraphs, we talked about the projections for Corby and Carroll, but fan graphs kind of surprised us because they had a certain Arizona Diamondback player listed as a potential breakout for 2024, and it was not,

the person I think a lot of people would would think of as a potential breakout. Fan graphs listed Kyle Nelson as a breakout star or potential breakout player for the Diamondbacks in 2024. And I mean, what were your thoughts on seeing him on there? Well, first of all, it's not just Fangraphs at large. This is friend of the show Dan Zimborski. So you know, you know it carries weight. Although maybe the neural network came up with this. I'm not totally sure.

I mean, some of the, Dan does let the computers do a lot of the work. I mean, his mind is basically a computer at this point. That is correct. It's all one and the same. Yeah,

what Dan wrote about Kyle Nelson, here's what he had to say. Have you seen his slider? The double whammy of a very high home run rate and a high BABB serve to keep Kyle Nelson's ERA relatively high and what could very well have been his breakout season. And even then all it took was a brutal September to dive bomb his seasonal numbers. Correct.

Dan continues. If Nelson finishes with an ERA of, Above four in 2024 over at least 30 innings, I'll eat a full order of Cincinnati chili. And as those that are familiar with me can attest, that's not something I relished doing. So Dan Zaborski is putting himself out there willing to even eat Cincinnati chili, which, I don't know, is that bad?

Cincinnati chili bad. Skyline chili? I don't know. Yeah, it's a thing. They love their chili in Cincinnati. I mean, Kyle Nelson has been a guy at times that we've spoke very highly of, and we know that he has been a guy that Tori has spoke very highly of. We know he's kind of a vital part of their bullpen, and they've said that for the last two seasons. Tori spoke today about where Kyle Nelson factors into the bullpen this year, and this is what he had to say.

Yeah, I mean, he was one of our main guys last year, and he threw the ball extremely well. I know I maybe overused him and he got a little fatigued and we had to back off of him later in the season. So my expectation is it'll still remain the same. He's got to come in here and continue to pitch and pitch well and make sure he's ready for the start of a season. Now, Tim in the chat says if Kyle Nelson knows our bankout candidate were screwed, I don't think that's what he's meaning as much as, you know. He's not saying that Kyle Nelson is going to be the best player on the Diamondbacks. He's just, he just every year, Dan Zimborski makes lists of pictures that he thinks are

breakout candidates and pictures that he views as bust candidates. And there are very good and somewhat unknown pitchers on both, on both of those lists. It's not really to say like these are the best or the worst players on their respective teams or anything. But I do understand where Dan is, what Dan is getting at here. As you heard Tori talk about there, Kyle Nelson's certainly a factor in the Diamondbacks bullpen. In 2024, we don't know exactly what it will look like. We don't know if he will make the opening day roster. I think he will.

I would lean in that direction just based on what he's given the team over the last couple years. But to Dan's point, Kyle Nelson's slider has been a very good pitch. It had a whiff rate just over 40% last year, which is legit. That means that almost half the time that opposing hitters are swinging at the Kyle Nelson slider. They are coming up empty. That is a pretty big deal. And really what happened to him last year is fastball. just got hit really hard.

Opposing hitters hit 321 with a 5-5-56 slugging percentage against Kyle Nelson's fastball. There were a lot of homers, especially in the second half of the season. DeBax didn't use him in as many big situations toward the end of the year. But yeah, the expected numbers are definitely better than the actual. I think there's some evidence he got a bit unlucky there. And yeah, we'll see what it looks like in 2024. We don't know if he's going to start on the major league roster, but he has started on a minor

league roster the last two seasons and Tori talked about him being competitive and showing a little bit of that fire in regards to it. I think, you know, when it comes to how well these guys take this information, there's kind of a balance, right? And I think a manager like Tori LaVolo, who sizes up his fellow managers and decides, you know, how he could beat them in a fight is also looking for some fight out of these guys, even when he's delivering, you know, bad news. I'm sure he wants them to handle it with maturity and, you know, with some professionalism. But I'm sure he also wants to tell him like, I'm sure he doesn't mind it when guys tell him like, I want to prove you wrong, you know, or I'll be back or, you know,

something kind of like in the face of that information. This is what Tori had to say about Kyle Nelson when he was told the last two seasons that he would be starting in the minors. Yeah. He's always breaking down walls. He's always challenging himself to get better every single day and takes things in stride as good as any, any, any, any. player I've ever been around. It's his personality. He doesn't like some of those things that have

happened in the past. You're right. Last year we had a left-handed pitcher or somebody go down the day before camp was breaking. It was emanthiified. And we basically recall them and he spent zero days in the minor leagues. But he didn't like it. He expressed it and didn't let it affect him. He went down and continued to pitch well enough and he was ready when we called them, call them back up. So it's about who he is. That's exactly what he's able to handle. he's persevered his whole career he's been a fighter his whole career and he's like i said he's always breaking down walls in front of him yeah always breaking down walls and i mean obviously you want to see these guys getting better and kyle nelson is a guy who if he can be better paired with that

slider he could be a very big weapon for troy out of the bullpen yeah and and he as torrey was talking about there kyle nelson really has been through it the last couple seasons uh in 22 was one oliver Perez who is who is brought in trying to make a you know one one last go it being a you know a solid left hand reliever in this league he made the diamond backs opening day roster and Kyle Nelson I believe it was for the second consecutive year Kyle Nelson lost out on a roster spot because of Oliver Perez it happened to him thinking Cleveland the year prior and then and then last year as Torrey talked about Kyle Nelson had been told that he would not be on the opening day roster to be starting the year in Reno and then Joe Mantiply got hurt right before the regular season.

And Kyle Nelson actually wound up starting the year on the opening day roster and played a really big role for the debacks, especially in the first half of the season. So, you know, is Kyle Nelson going to be a high leverage arm for the debacks? Probably not. You know, the slider is a good pitch. The fastball, I think gets hit around a little bit in the low 90s. But we've, we've seen it. Right. I mean, in 2022, Kyle Nelson, was really good for the entire season. And last year he got bit by the long ball quite a bit toward the end of the year. Maybe we see him get that under control a bit here in 2024.

We will be back here tomorrow at 6 p.m. with more on Tommy Henry's start tomorrow as well as Bryce Jarvis being scheduled to pitch four innings. It sounds like Henry and Jarvis will get the majority of the workload in that game. So make sure to join us. In the meantime, you can follow us on Twitter. I am at cap underscore caveman with the k. Jesse is at Jesse and Friedman. The people's producer, Damon Dog.

He is at Damon Dog. That's D-A-W-G. And we are Damon's dogs. Park Park. Of course, our show is at P-H-N-X underscore D-Backs, but all roads do lead to at P-HNX underscore Sports. 6 o'clock tomorrow on Friday. We have an 11 a.m. start in honor of Gerald's wedding,

which we are both in attendance for. So, unfortunately, much as Jesse is, hates it. He has to miss a baseball game to go see two people commit themselves. Yeah, it was a pretty tough call for me, honestly. He actually asked if we could hold the reception at a baseball stadium. Amy said absolutely not. Yeah, I was I was appalled by that. Spring training games are important, Derek. Don't plan your wedding in March. If you're not going to have spring training games involved. That's what I say. But, you know, not all, not all people love baseball as much as we do. But we know you guys do. We thank you for joining us. Of course, we appreciate your time.

We will see you tomorrow. And in the meantime, have a wonderful. wonderful night. Thank you so much for stopping by and remember kids. Baseball is fun, but it's so much more fun when you also get scouting reports on how to fight your fellow managers.