PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Does MLB Need To INTERVENE After Blake Snell, Dodgers Agree To $60 Million In Deferrals?
Episode Date: November 27, 2024JOIN THE PHNX DIEHARDS! https://www.gophnx.com/join-diehard Per multiple reports and his own personal Instagram, starting pitcher Blake Snell has signed a 5-year deal with the Dodgers, confirming tha...t we truly are living in the darkest possible timeline. We discuss if MLB needs to do something about the Dodgers finding a loophole in the league’s competitive balance tax and the impact this will have on the 29 other franchises in baseball. We also discuss if the Diamondbacks can keep up by trading for Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Naylor and who MLB selected as a potential 2025 Rookie of the Year candidate for Arizona. Join Derek, Jesse, and Kevin for the PHNX Diamondbacks Show LIVE! An ALLCITY Network Production SUBSCRIBE to our YouTube: https://bit.ly/phnx_youtube ALL THINGS PHNX: http://linktr.ee/phnxsports MERCH https://store.allcitynetwork.com/collections/phnx-locker ALLCITY Network, Inc. aka PHNX and PHNX Sports is in no way affiliated with or endorsed by the City of Phoenix PHNX Events: Get your tickets to PHNX events and takeovers here: https://gophnx.com/events/ bet365: https://www.bet365.com/olp/open-account?affiliate=365_03330244 Use the code PHNX365 to sign up, deposit $10 and bet $5 to get $150 in bonus bets! Disclaimer: Must be 21+ and physically located in AZ. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-NEXT-STEP, text NEXTSTEP to 53342 or visit https://problemgambling.az.gov/ Bluechew: Try BlueChew FREE when you use our promo code ALLCITY at checkout--just pay $5 shipping. That’s https://bluechew.com promo code ALLCITY to receive your first month FREE. Visit for more details and important safety information, and we thank BlueChew for sponsoring the podcast.. Zbiotics: Go to https://zbiotics.com/phnxdbacks to get 15% off your first order when you use PHNXDBACKS at checkout. Pre-Alcohol is backed with 100% money back guarantee so if you’re unsatisfied for any reason, they’ll refund your money, no questions asked. Empire Today: Schedule a free in-home estimate today! All listeners can receive a $350 OFF discount when they use the promo code PHNX. Restrictions apply. See https://empiretoday.com/phnx for details. Branded Bills: Use code PHNX at https://www.brandedbills.com/ for 20% off your first order! Gametime: Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code PHNX for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Circle K: Join Inner Circle for free by downloading the Circle K app today! Head to https://www.circlek.com/store-locator to find Circle Ks near you! Shady Rays: Exclusively for our listeners, Shady Rays is giving out their best deal of the season. Head to https://shadyrays.com and use code: PHNX for 35% off polarized sunglasses. Try for yourself the shades rated 5 stars by over 300,000 people. Check out FOCO merch and collectibles and use promo code “PHNX10” for 10% off your order on all non Pre Order items. Rugged Road: Gear up for your next adventure with Rugged Road Coolers - Your ultimate outdoor companion! Head to http://ruggedroadoutdoors.pxf.io/ALLCITY and use code PHNX for 10% off! Get 10 FREE meals at https://hellofresh.com/freedbacks. Applied across 7 boxes, new subscribers only, varies by plan. When you shop through links in the description, we may earn affiliate commissions. Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. #dbacks #diamondbacks #arizonadiamondbacks #mlb #zacgallen #corbincarroll #ketelmarte #mlbtheshow #mlbtraderumors #tradedeadline #traderumors #allstargame Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Well, baseball as a sport is officially cooked.
What do you want to talk about now, Jesse?
Swimming, golf?
Sure.
Let's do golf.
Let's become a golf podcast.
We are living in the worst possible timeline.
Of course, we're talking about Blake Snell signing with the Dodgers.
Don't you go anywhere.
I'm going to scream a lot in 30 seconds.
Nope, no, no, no, no, no ski.
You don't get any more skis.
The skiing is over.
I'm sad.
You guys ruined my Thanksgiving vacation.
and we were just one day away from making it.
At least maybe if this happened over the break,
I would be so sad about it.
But no, you ruined my holiday, you ruined my stuffing,
you ruined my turkey, you ruined everything.
I'm talking specifically to you, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Welcome in to another edition of the PH&X DBAX podcast.
Right here on PH&X, we are in Studio K presented by our friends at Circle K.
And this is my friend Jesse Freeman, aka your thunderstick.
And I don't know what kind of opinion he's going to take today.
but it's going to be entirely too calm for the situation.
Because the Dodgers have ruined goddamn baseball.
Yes, I am complaining.
Yes, I am whining.
Yes, I'm a cry, baby.
And me and 29 other teams fan bases are all doing the same thing
because the Dodgers found a way to go out there and sign.
One of the best starting pitchers on the free agency market before anybody really was,
before anything was even happening,
they have locked up Blake Snell to a five-year deal.
And this is just the worst.
It's the worst.
It's the worst.
It's the worst, Jesse.
I have no words for it other than this is the goddamn worst.
Was it more the $52 million signing bonus or the $60 million in deferrals?
You know exactly what it was.
It was the $60 million in goddamn deferrals.
I don't understand how a major league baseball team that already has so much that already
has so much money to spend, has found a way to circumvent the competitive balance tax rules
and have their players sign on for it simply based on the fact that these guys know that,
hey, $3 million, $5 million, $2 million, it doesn't matter.
That's enough money to live off of for a year or a couple of years.
And then at a later time in life, I'm going to just be living a fat life of getting, you know,
money at a time when I probably won't be generating much income at that point as an athlete
any longer. It's wild. I know it's something, it's not, it wasn't invented by the Dodgers.
It's not their thing, but it is a recent tactic to circumvent a competitive balance tax that
was put in a place to be, I guess, the only threshold of, of, of a, of a, you know, a salary
cap or any kind of thing that penalizes teams for going out there and doing what the Dodgers
are doing, which is basically unfair to the rest of the, you know, the game.
the league and I am not like look I'm not gonna sit here I'm gonna curse I swear to God I'm not gonna be
able to not curse on this episode we kind of broke things open last night with the debacks after
dark so excuse me if that happens but I'll say this I it just it just makes baseball so unfair
and so unfun and I'm sick of the argument that every team in baseball has this kind of money to
spend and they just choose not to because they're selfish owners they don't that is
isn't that there is no way that is entirely true.
There might be some truth to that,
but definitely not with the case of the Yankees and the Dodgers
who are just brands that kind of are bigger in some ways globally
than Major League Baseball itself.
I hate it, Jesse.
This is gross and I hate it.
And I'm just going to say irrational things this whole time.
I just want to let you get it all out.
I'm never going to get it all out.
Like this is going to be for the next eight months.
This is who I am now.
This is my personality.
just the guy that screams a lot about how baseball used to be decent,
but now it's not because the Dodgers ruined the goddamn sport.
I'm going to start reading Dodgers fans' comments.
I'm going to start speaking about every.
Hey, excuse me, I'm going to go fight Max right now.
You want to take over.
I'm going to go fight Matt.
Oh, my goodness.
Where to start on this thing.
I guess my first reaction to this, Derek, was that I, I feel like I, I feel like I
should have seen this coming and I'm almost ashamed that I didn't like it was it just feels like
something that was always going to happen and yet in my head I viewed Blake Snell as a guy who
would go to a lot of different teams right like who wouldn't want Blake Snell sure but Blake's
now is the exact type of pitcher that the Dodgers target right he gets a ton of swing and miss at
his best there is arguably no one better in all of baseball we saw it in the second half his last
14 starts of the year with the Giants.
I know it was a rough start.
His last 14 starts, Derek, a 1.23 ERA.
That's like half a season of just absurd level performance.
You look at his numbers for the entire season, and they're still good, right?
104 innings, a 312ERA 105 whip, 34.7% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate.
That strikeout rate is off the charts, ridiculous for a starting pitcher.
3.1 wins above replacement.
And that's all in 104 innings because Blake Snell had this weird year where he was hurt
a bunch.
He had a similar situation as Jordan Montgomery as a Boris client signing late in the process
and getting off to a very bad start.
As I mentioned, injuries along the way did not help.
But yes, this is exactly the type of player that the Dodgers target.
They are not so concerned about durability because they don't really have to be, Derek,
because when you have like a starting pitcher depth chart of 15 guys that you could
violate a start in a major league game, it's all right if a few of them blow out, you know,
their elbows or whatever in August.
So yeah, that's my first reaction to this.
The other thing that I will say real quick is that any team could have done this.
I know some people have been saying it in the chat.
like the Dodgers do not have a monopoly on deferrals necessarily.
Like this is something that Blake Snell agreed to do.
And this deal is quite different from the Otani deal
in that he is getting $52 million up front,
which is an insane signing bonus.
So it's almost like the deferrals kind of cancel out
with a signing bonus and make this sort of a normal five-year,
$182 million contract, if you can call it that.
But it does appear that they're kind of, I don't know if circumventing is the right word,
but my understanding is that him getting so much money up front does not push up the competitive balance tax hit for this deal.
The hit is reduced because of the deferrals and it is not increased because of the signing bonus.
So even though it works out to, I think it's $36 million a year or something like that, the hit toward the luxury tax.
threshold or the competitive balance tax threshold is is actually a few million dollars lower than that.
So we could have a conversation about whether the Dodgers should be allowed to do something like that.
I think that's valid.
Yeah. But at the end of the day, you're talking about three or four million bucks.
It's not going to make a not going to make a huge difference.
And you're absolutely right.
Every team in Major League Baseball can do this.
And it's the reason why it's absurd and ridiculous because it literally circumvents a system they have in place that's meant to,
keep the league balanced, right? It's, it's parity that they're trying to create. It's not to say,
like baseball has plenty of parity. When you look at the champions across the years, you know,
and things like that, there's since what, 2004, there's only been a handful of repeat champions.
And I don't think any of them were back to back consecutively. So you, you have had something in major
league baseball where, you know, you can go out there. You could spend all this money. The Dodgers could even
spend all this money and still not have things work out for them in 2025.
That's the silver lining that we as a team that competes with them in their same division
have to look at.
However, it's just, it's getting to the point of actually being ridiculous with how they're
able to pull these deals off, how attractive of a destination they continue to make LA.
So it just pulls in more free agents.
And then they just continue to find a way to, you know, I guess arrange the money in a way
where they're not getting hit with the most, you know,
with the highest tier of competitive balance tax.
And that's the part that's just frustrating, right?
And Showtime, L.A. says, as a Dodgers fan,
this guarantees nothing.
D-backs and Padres could still get hot and beat us.
And that's the, that is the one thing that's very true about baseball.
I just think, at least the suffocating part here,
is that most of the time in baseball,
and maybe this goes to the greed of the owners.
Maybe this is something that the Dodgers should be applauded.
for, right? But it seems like after teams win a championship, they're fairly satisfied and they
really don't need to go out there and continue to try to make their team better at least immediately,
right? You might see at least a little bit of a holdoff. That's why, you know, again,
you have teams like the nationals and other teams that once they won that championship, you really
didn't see that same level of success. The Dodgers aren't letting up just because they won a world
series. They're keeping their foot on the gas. Those of you that are saying it in the chat are
absolutely right. They're not done. They're going to add other guys or at least bring guys like
Teasca Hernandez back or find some way to make this team possibly even better than it was last year.
It's shaping up to be that as of now. And again, like when you talk about the free agents that could
be leaving, they may have just made this that much more of an attractive destination for those guys
to stay in L.A. and not leave, you know? I'm a guy that I don't like to move. Nobody likes to move.
right
you just made it a little easier for me to make that decision to not to move i'm staying there
in los angeles we did see firsthand last off season the impact of going on a deep postseason run
you make a lot of money along the way right 46 million dollars that what it was yeah
46 million for players and then maybe something like that for the team as well yeah no i mean it's
the i guess it's the that this is just the world series kind of like purse that the yankees and the dodgers
split. So I don't know in what way that 46 million. I think that's just like what Ken Kendrick
discussed when the Diamondbacks made it to the World Series. Right. That they had this surplus
due to television money that you received from being in the playoffs. Right. Right. All the ticket
revenue and all that. Yeah. The Dodgers and the Yankees just made a ton more money and they're
the teams that already have the most money to spend. The Dodgers aren't even, I mean, the Dodgers aren't
even in the top, what, three of spending. That's the wildest thing about the way that they've
arranged all these contracts.
Yeah, I mean,
well,
it depends on whether you're counting Otani's deal as genuinely $2 million.
Or if you're,
you know,
if you counted as $70 million,
what is it counting against,
what is it counting against the payroll?
$2 million, right?
Well, yeah,
against the payroll,
it's $2 million against the competitive balance.
It's the $7 million.
It's 46.
It's because it's like the adjusted present day value of the deal.
But yeah,
like we saw last year,
the Diamondbacks benefited very much from going on that deep postseason run.
and the Dodgers did not really have that benefit last season.
Not to say that they didn't spend any money anyway because they certainly did.
They spent more than a billion dollars last off season.
However, yes, this feels like the Dodgers, you know,
getting a nice check for $40 million, whatever it was for their postseason run
and being like, hey, we'll sign Blake Snell to a deferral-laden contract
and we'll just basically hand off all of the money we just made from the postseason to him immediately as a signing bonus, right?
I mean, that's basically what that signing bonus amounts to.
I don't know exactly how much money the Dodgers got from the playoffs.
But maybe-
We got money.
It's fine.
Here you just have what way I have in my pocket.
I think the other part of this that makes the optics so terrible, and I very much understand what people are saying,
like, you know, deferrals or not, the fact that the Dodgers are just,
getting the volume of elite level players that they are in free agency.
I don't think is a good look for the sport.
We can have a conversation about that.
But I also think it makes it feel even worse that this is the very beginning of the offseason, right?
If Soto had gone somewhere not to the Dodgers, if he had gone somewhere else,
you know, if Corbyn Burns had gone somewhere else, if Max Fried had gone somewhere else,
if all of those things had happened and then the Dodgers got Snell at the end, they'd be like,
all right, well, yeah, the Dodgers were always going to get a starting pitcher like, you know,
they're losing Jack Flaherty they needed to replace him. But the optics of it happening right now at the
beginning of the off season, when nothing else really happened outside of Los Angeles, apparently,
because the Angels and the Dodgers have gotten a nice head start here. That makes it feel all the worse,
because we don't know how any of the any of those other big name free agents are going to play out.
Yeah, we got Showtime already taunting me with Derek. What will you do if we get soda?
I'm not saying I'll do anything drastic,
but I'm saying there is a window in this room,
and we are on the fifth floor.
So you can put two and two together
as far as what that final episode
that I will be on will be like.
But I don't know.
I mean, I think that there is,
there is a lot of that still left, right?
We have Sasaki that is going to absolutely make Diamondbacks fans.
If Sasaki goes there as well, it's not going to be.
Although someone made a point earlier in the
chat like does sasaki want to go to the dodgers to be like 12 on their starting
finishing death chart there's got there's got to be a point right jessie where we have we there's got to be a
jetti rebellion at some point there's got to be a rise up of the people that have been disenfranchised by what the
dodgers are doing and they have to battle against the evil empire and there's got to be ewarks involved
what kevin i'm in the middle of screaming i'm i'm with you no i'm with you i'm going to back you up on
this. I was trying to tell Jesse our
friend who doesn't really
get emotional about these things earlier.
I was like, where is the competitive backbone
in these guys? I understand the money.
I understand the money. But ultimately... You can't beat
them. Join them. Damn it, you can't beat
them. Get your back together. I wanted
to say another word that I'm not allowed to say anymore.
Well, exactly. Right. Because...
Where do you rise up and say, I want to beat them instead
of going over there and being a part of that?
Was Blake Snell going to beat the Dodgers?
Absolutely not. Going back to San Francisco.
But he had two other teams in the National League West. He could have
chose from to try to do it maybe maybe you could have come to the diamondbacks emma worked really hard
on that jersey swap that we put out i think it took her 15 whole minutes to do that jesse i am furious
that we once again have to see the dodgers and again i'm not it it hats off to them this is the part
that makes all of the diamondbacks fans say i'm a dodger fan it's because you can't really like
you you you want your team to be doing it if you are a dodger fan you're you're a dodger fan you're
you are not upset about this move,
and you are just happy that your team is continuing to stay competitive
and trying to make this franchise a dynasty.
You know, this is one of those things that there are a lot of people
that had to hear about, you know, a championship, their team won,
being called a Mickey Mouse ring for years,
and now they are having the last laugh,
at least after this championship, and potentially more in the future.
So I think we poked a bear that we shouldn't have poked,
and now that bear is going around and deferring contracts left and right.
And I can't stand it.
It kind of feels like you bullied someone in high school.
And then they grew up and got all jacked and became like a pro fighter or something.
I mean, we literally saw the Padres do this to them in the middle of the playoffs, right?
Like start flexing on them at home and start messing with their fans when the series wasn't over.
And it woke the Dodgers up.
I mean, it's hard to not say that the way that they tried to bully them around didn't wake them up.
And you're right.
Like there is something to be said about that.
And I mean, I would imagine being a part of the front office.
at the Dodgers just sitting every day going,
I'm going to show you, Mickey Mouse ring.
You know what I mean?
Like, there's a lot.
There's a lot of proving people wrong that you probably want to do.
But, uh,
and Sean says,
honestly,
if I were a Dodger fan,
I would be laughing my ass off.
And yeah,
I mean,
that's,
that's it.
I mean,
that is,
it's,
it's,
it's,
again,
probably don't feel bad today if you're a doctor's.
No,
you don't.
I had a hard time going to sleep last night.
I just turned everything off and late bed and had little tears come out of my face because
my sport I love is dead.
It's dead.
It's dead.
But like I will say that baseball at least has that thing, right?
You never know.
And we've been here before where teams look like they,
you wanted to crown them champions on day one and they didn't even end up making the playoffs.
Right.
So yeah, I doubt that's the case with this Dodgers team.
The one thing that they've done here is just made this good team so incredibly deep now
that even some like what are you going to do with some of these quality starting pitchers that you have?
This point the Dodgers can like start making trades to make this team even better.
better. And like, that's the, that's how deep they truly are. They have young talent. They have
current elite talent. And, you know, I, it's, it's definitely frustrating if you are like the
diamond backs and have to play this team. Yeah, I mean, thinking about like, does Major League
Baseball, like should Major League Baseball actually do something about this? I don't, I don't, I don't really,
I don't really see any obvious courses of action that they could take. I mean, I think it's pretty
clear that it's not a it's not a great look for the sport the Dodgers getting as as much elite
level talent as they're getting as I said earlier and I think it's also not a good look for the
sport that like the Pittsburgh Pirates don't really ever spend any money and there's a lot of
other teams in that camp as well right you know I don't I don't think this is necessarily a Dodgers
problem or a Dodgers hacking the system problem because again there's nothing for preventing any of the
other teams from doing stuff like this.
And Blake Snell obviously agreed to this contract.
And I don't think it's like a terrible contract for him.
I would want to go to the Dodgers too probably if I were, you know, a pitcher in my 30s because
pitchers in their 30s tend to do pretty well for themselves there.
But there is a larger major league baseball problem here that I think we can be pretty open about.
Like what, you know, whatever you want to say about what the Dodgers are doing, you know,
let's look at the pirates and let's look at the just.
the enormous disparity that exists between the teams at the bottom and the teams at the top.
And I don't think it is all, you know, Major League Baseball's responsibility to step in and fix
that. Part of it is what a lot of people have said, which is that the other owners need to
step up and spend money too. But is that ever actually going to happen unless Major League
Baseball steps in and kind of forces it to happen in some ways, right? People have talked about
a salary floor in addition to a salary cap.
I think that might be a way to potentially approach this.
Whatever the approach is moving forward,
I think we can all agree that, you know,
even though baseball does have this element of randomness,
and yes, any team can still beat the Dodgers,
despite this absurd roster that they're putting together,
it's not great when one team has, you know,
this many elite-level free agent players,
and there are other teams that,
that never, ever spend on players the caliber of Blake Snow.
I think that there is something to be done maybe about the deferrals.
I think there's a way that even if you're deferring the payments to pay those players at a later time,
I still think the money should be counted against the competitive balance tax and fully.
I think if your 10-year contract and you have this much amount,
that it should be broken up amongst the, and then that even makes it hard, right?
Because that's not how contracts are actually structured.
You make $8 million this year, $14 million this year, $12 million this year, $20 million.
this year. So, you know, I don't really know what the answer is either. I do know that other
leagues haven't figured out where it doesn't feel so unfair. Right. Yeah, like this, this doesn't
happen in the NBA, right? It doesn't, like not to say that different teams don't have different
payrolls, certainly, but it's within or more, yeah, resources too. Yeah, like the Dodgers are
pulling in substantially more revenue than than a lot of other teams. So that's something you have to
factor in as well. It's just the, it's just the amount of different.
between the bottom and the top.
Yeah.
Like 60 million versus 360 million.
It's crazy.
Doesn't seem good for the sport.
Like say what you will about, oh, yes, the Tampa Bay Rays go out there and they still win.
The Cleveland Guardians go out there and they still win.
True.
But it's objectively not a fair competitive situation, right?
It's obvious.
So there are clearly changes that you would like to see made in terms of the result.
how you get there is a much more complicated question.
But when the Dodgers have such an advantage, you know, with personnel, with talent,
it makes it hard as an owner to see a reason for you to go out and spend.
What incentivizes you when you feel like there's still such a huge gap between you and those teams at the top?
Okay, I could go spend another $40 billion.
I'm still $200 million less than the Dodgers.
I'm still not even in their same stratosphere as far as competition level.
can make a difference though. Like can you imagine if can you imagine if you take that guardians team that
went as far as it did in the in the playoffs and and add 80 million even to that payroll? Like you can do a lot
with that 80 million. I'll argue you won even further. If you had a Detroit Tigers team that didn't
give up and trade one of their best starting pitchers away to the Dodgers that that team then
went on to make the playoffs. What would the Dodgers have done in the playoffs without Jack Flaherty? I know he
wasn't great at times, but other times, you know, they just needed him is the point that I'm
essentially making, right? He had a few good games. And he was good in the, in the regular season
leading up to the end of the playoffs. So they didn't really necessarily need him then, but they did
because the Dodgers pitching was a bit decimated due to the injury. That, again, is the reason
why we're seeing them go out and spend this money on Blake Snell. And I will set the record straight.
This is not a Shohei Otani problem. I, as we all should, blame Bobby Bonilla. Because
every July 1st, we celebrate Bobby Bonilla Day because that man until the day he dies is going to
receive $1.193 million for forever from the Mets until the day, the 2035. And of course, there was a time
where that contract was laughable. It's the reason why we make it such a joke is that this man
is just living the high life, the rest of his life, living the good years right now. I think he's
65 years old, 61 years old.
right now just getting of $1.1 million in that bank account every July 1st, right?
So, I mean, there isn't, there isn't always, you know, you can't always blame it on the Dodgers.
There's a precedent that's been set for years as far as deferring payments.
It's just, you know, another team that has signed some guys to deferred contracts.
Oh, don't do it.
Don't do it.
Madison Bumgarner's deal, obviously it did not work out to say the least.
That deal had deferrals.
Zach Grinke, that deal also had pretty significant deferrals in it.
if you take away the Dodgers ability to defer money in these contracts,
you might also be taking,
I mean,
you also would be taking away the Diamondbacks ability to defer money.
And for the Diamondbacks,
that might be even a bigger deterrent than it would be for a team like the Dodgers.
The Rickety Bridge,
our friend that's new to baseball,
who unfortunately comes in at kind of a really bad time with all this Dodgers news.
He asks, when did he sign that deal?
I'm sure you're asking about Bobby Bonilla.
Sign that in 2011.
2011 so that contract runs from 2011 through
2035 and he gets
1.193 million dollars every July 1st.
It's a good deal. It's a really good
It's a great deal and I think that's one of those things
But again there is
That's not great and it's not great when you are in the same division as the Dodgers
So you know we we do have to contend with this
But baseball is a game where you just never know what can happen
And right right that's the first.
reason here why the Dodgers are doing this.
You know, it just, it does feel like they already have their, their foot on, on the throat
of the league.
And now they're just applying unnecessary amounts of pressure.
But that's because they want to be a dynasty and they don't want to let next year go kind
of the way that this one almost went for them where injuries and a lack of depth almost cost
them that chance at the championship.
So the last thing I'll say about this just real quick is, is that ultimately the Dodgers get
better.
Their roster is incredible.
probably going to go into 20, 25 is the World Series favorite. But in baseball, we can't talk about
this enough. That just doesn't guarantee anything. There are, there's so much variance,
you know, even Blake Snell, like the Diamondbacks face Blake Snell twice last year and
pummeled him both times. He threw like 40 pitches in the first inning the second time,
the first time, I think he gave up like six runs and four innings or something like that.
Blake Snell has not been a sure thing throughout his career,
and you look up and down this Dodgers projected rotation,
as big as some of these names are.
Like, a lot of these guys have had big time arm injuries in recent history, right?
Like Tyler Glassnow wasn't able to come back toward the end of the year.
Shohei Otani coming back from Tommy John,
Yoshinovo Yamamoto had an arm injury toward the end of the season.
Blake Snell, as we said earlier, was hurt a bunch.
Tony Gonsolin, I want to say his injury was,
Tommy John that he's coming back from.
Gavin Stone had shoulder issues at the end of the year after a big time season.
So there are no guarantees with any of this.
But at the same time, I grant you that doesn't mean that all of this is fine.
And, you know, one team spending $400 million and another team spending $50 is a good way for the sport to operate moving forward.
Well, of course, we will have some more ways for the Arizona Diamondbacks to get better in 2025.
and that might be through some trades.
We got some more first base trade targets to talk about.
So don't you go anywhere.
We'll get on those right after this break.
All right.
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I hate how you calmed me down with your logic and your, you know,
I guess demeanor overall.
I'm still ready to be angry.
But I guess we have no idea.
angry to be until we see what the diamondbacks do this offseason. We do know that they have a big
hole to fill at first base should Christian Walker sign with another team, possibly the Yankees,
another team that Rich is just getting richer.
Surely you would be calm.
Oh, yeah. I'm going to be so calm when that happens. But the diamond backs still need to find
another trade target here or potentially free agent to fill that role. We do have a good option
for them. Yeah. We're going to start out here with Nathan.
Nathaniel Lowe, a first baseman for the Texas Rangers, the first basement for the Texas Rangers, I should say.
Lowe is a 29-year-old left-handed hitter who put up some pretty good numbers in 2024.
We can take a look here at 265 average, 361 on base, 401 slugging percentage, 16 homers, 69 RBI, 2.8 fan graphs, wins above replacement.
Lowe has two years of club control remaining, and he is estimated to make.
like $10.7 million in arbitration in 2025.
Not all that dissimilar from Ryan Mountcastle,
who we discussed on the show yesterday.
Just as far as his team control and...
Two years of control, like...
29 years old.
Yeah, not...
The homers are definitely not Walker-esque,
but he's a decent defender as well.
That's something we didn't really talk about
with Mountcastle yesterday.
Mountcastle, I think,
is probably a slightly above average first baseman.
and Nathaniel Lowe has a good reputation defensively as well.
He won a gold glove last year,
and he was a gold glove finalist this year,
a pretty strong defensive metrics in both of those seasons.
So he's not Christian Walker out there,
but he's a decent first basement for sure.
But when you take a look at their numbers from 2022 to 2024,
there's ways that Lowe does kind of beat Christian Walker out,
low slash 277, 364.38,
while Walker is slash 250, 332, 481.
The slug was there a little bit more with Christian Walker.
He had 95 home runs to low's 60, 281 RBI to lows 27.
And very comparable in OPS plus, a 124 OPS plus for Nathaniel Lowe, a 123 OPS plus, Jesse, for Christian Walker.
I mean, we've talked comparable replacements.
We've hit on a few guys like, you know, that really do have very comparable stats.
but I mean, Lowe might be the closest one to replicating Christian Walker over there, both defensively and offensively.
Yeah, I mean, you see a 401 slugging percentage for a first baseman. You're like, well, that's not very good at all for, you know, expect a first basement to hit for some power. But yeah, you don't, don't be fooled by that because Nathaniel Lowe, in terms of OPS Plus, as you just said, he's been basically the same as Christian Walker, very similar to Christian Walker for the past three seasons. It's just with Lowe, you're getting less power, but you're getting.
more on base.
Lowe had a 360 on base percentage over the last three seasons compared to 332 for Walker.
So he has a higher batting average and he also draws a few more walks along the way as well.
So yeah, it's different.
It's definitely different.
I'm not sure Nathaniel Lowe is someone, your batten clean up every day the way that you
were with Walker.
But he's still a valuable player in terms of Winsbaugh replacement.
Walker and Lowe were very similar.
in in 2024 right around the two and a half to three range.
So this is a guy that you can plug in for two seasons.
And like we said with Mount Castle yesterday,
maybe be a nice bridge to whatever your longer term first base solution could be.
Which I still don't know what that is for the Arizona down and backs.
Rickety Bridge is absolutely right.
As others have said,
Mountcastle is a much cooler name than low.
Yeah, there's no doubt about that.
Sir Mountcastle, if you will, the knight of the round table.
Go most, I think I got that right, says MLB should interview and introduce a salary floor.
I'm just going to keep popping those comments.
And even though we've moved on for that discussion, I don't care.
We're going to keep doing that.
Yeah, I mean, yeah, I think the idea here is that it's not the same.
You might move Gino into that cleanup role in this case.
Yeah, I don't know what the DVACs would do.
It would be interesting to see.
It would be interesting to see.
And, of course, they have to start figuring out something to do.
just in regards to the financial conversation,
we know that the Diamondbacks are willing to spend
what they made last year or what they spent last year.
They're willing to maybe spend even a little more,
but we also know they don't have that windfall
from appearing in the playoffs.
They don't have that financial benefit.
We're talking about the Dodgers and the Yankees receiving
for making it to the World Series.
So they're going to have to get a bit creative,
and at this point,
they're going to have to find ways to not only fill roles
through free agency, but through trades.
So what is it going to cost for a Nathaniel Lowe, Jesse?
Yeah, this is, again, taking a bit of a shot in the dark here.
It says ground.
It says ground hog mama said.
She said, they're called mock trade so that when we put them out there, the audience can mock us for the trade.
Yeah, and I'm curious to hear how people react to this one.
We have right-handed pitcher Yobar Diaz as the sole return for the Rangers in this deal, just a simple one-for-one swap.
theoretically low does not have a ton of surplus value if you're not familiar with the concept of
surplus value it's basically think about like what the player is worth and what the player is projected
to make uh and that that delta is basically what you're what you're looking at in terms of surplus
value and it's not a huge number for nathaniel low because as i said earlier he's projected to make
10.7 million in 2025 which is a decent number and in 26 that number would go up again it could be in
the, you know, 13, 14 million dollar range potentially. And that's a pretty big number, right?
You're paying about 20 to 25 million dollars for low over the course of these two seasons. So he's not,
like, he is a more valuable player than that over two seasons, but not necessarily by a huge margin.
So I don't think the Rangers could, you know, could ask for Brandon fought or something like that in
return. That, that in my mind would be very, very lopsided. Well, and the Rangers need more pitch.
depth. So pitching would make a lot of sense.
And I mean, we know that the one thing about Gilbert Diaz is he made a good impression on the league.
I think he showed that he was major league ready. And the Diamondbacks just had kind of a surplus
of pitchers and none of them were very good down the stretch, of course. But Gilber was at times.
And I think that there is the idea here that's still trading him at this point. You might still be
trading him at a higher value than he might be as a major leaguer. We don't know that until he actually
has a bigger sample size than what he currently has.
The Rangers would really have to buy
into Diaz as a
starting pitcher. And I'm not
sure that they would do that
necessarily. I'm not sure exactly how
Diaz is viewed by
front offices around the league right now.
I also am not sure exactly how the Diamondbacks view
Diaz, which of course would be
another big variable here.
My inclination is that this is a little
bit light. I think the Rangers would probably
want more just given
the question mark surrounding
Yilbert Diaz at this stage in his career.
Nathaniel Lowe, the ceiling is not necessarily sky high,
but the floor is pretty high with a guy like Nathaniel Lowe
because of what he gives you defensively,
his ability to get on base.
So my guess is that the Rangers would not be so happy with this deal.
But, you know, if you're a D-Bax fan,
maybe you could also talk yourself into Jilbert Diaz being like a really good
member of this rotation for six seasons.
And maybe you don't want to give that up for two seasons of Nathaniel Lowe.
That's a very good point.
B.L. Boyd hasn't noticed that we haven't moved on in the conversation.
We're no longer crying.
We're talking about trades for the Diamondback.
So appreciate it.
We did quit crying.
Rickety Bridge says, I don't have an opinion yet on these.
I'm going to try and figure out how people play in spring training,
or is that as useless as the NBA preseason?
It's a little useless.
It's pretty useless.
For some of the minor league guys, I guess for some of the guys on the bubble, it's not.
I mean, you can really make an impression in spring training where you get added to a major league roster.
and it's those guys that right there that would probably be making their major league debut at some point in 2025 anyway,
that would probably be able to make, I guess, enough of impression in spring training that they could get added to the major league roster earlier.
But spring training is mostly about guys getting ready for the major league season.
And I'm fairly sure that the chairman is broken and it just keeps getting lower and lower.
And I'm entirely too short compared to Jesse.
I'm already too short.
He calls me a short king, and I hate that.
But we're not talking about first base targets.
We do have some more to get to here on the other side of this break.
Can we interest you in one Josh Naylor?
Maybe speaking of trades, can we interest the Rangers and taking back one slightly used Jordan Montgomery?
I don't know.
I'm always willing to throw that up.
He was holding a World Series trophy the last time he was in a Rangers.
Facts.
Facts!
Can you argue with those facts?
No, you can't Texas Rangers.
Montgomery for Montgomery for NIST.
Nathaniel Loos.
Just straight up.
Straight up.
No money exchange or anything.
It's one bad contract for another, right?
I don't know.
All right.
Well, we're going to get to that other trade that we have on the other side of this break.
Please don't go anywhere.
Of course, now is a great time to go watch our Phoenix Suns and our Arizona Cardinals do the things
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So, of course, if you want to go watch those teams, play those games, you've got to get your tickets through game time.
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Tell me, Derek.
No, that was a packed event.
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Jesse, what time is it?
It's game time.
Oh, boy, it is game time.
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All right. Well, yes, we are talking about Blake Snow at being added to the Dodgers. And so,
of course, by comparison, we're trying to get Nathaniel Lowe to the Diamondbacks. I know those two
things aren't the same thing. You don't have to tell me that. He knows it. He looks at the numbers.
He knows their war off the top of their head. But that would be the storyline.
If the Diamondbacks made a trade, it would be a direct retaliation to the Dodgers signing Blake's
that would be a striking back, right?
Mike Hazen was having none of that.
And he went out and got Nathaniel Lo.
Well, I mean, we do have another option from the Guardians who are another team, of course,
that don't spend a lot of money.
But they do have some good players over there and they've been able to find success.
And a part of that success has been Josh Naylor.
Let's take a look at his 2024 season.
Offensively, he went 243, 320, 456 slashed, I should say, with 31 home runs,
108 RBI and a 2.3-4.
Offensively, he was great.
He's the exact kind of power hitter.
You are looking to replace Christian Walker.
Defensively, he pales in comparison over there at first base.
Yeah, he is very much not Christian Walker defensively, but offensively, pretty similar player.
I mean, as you heard, there, 31 homers, 108 RBI.
in 2024. Those 31 homers were a career high. He's generally been in, he had 17 in 20,
he had 20 in 2022. He did miss some time in each of those seasons though. But yeah,
offensively, if you're looking to bring in a bat that's similar to Christian Walker over at first base,
Josh Naylor is a pretty good solution to that. You look at their numbers over the last three years,
Naylor has slashed 267, 330, 465.
That's a 795 OPS.
And Christian Walker is slash 250, 332, 481, which is an OPS just over 800.
So pretty, pretty similar numbers there.
Both guys have exactly a 123 OPS plus over the last three seasons, so 23% above average.
But as you said earlier, Naylor is not Christian Walker defensively.
and that's why Christian Walker is pretty clearly a better player than Josh Naylor is.
Well, what would it take for Josh Naylor, Jesse?
And we know the Diamondbacks have some resources that other teams are looking at.
Of course, part of one of those resources is outfielders.
Yes.
And I guess before we get there, I should say, well, we're there.
But before I talk about what you're seeing on your screen, if you're joining us on YouTube,
is that Josh Naylor only is one year of club control remaining.
So unlike Alec Bohm and Ryan Mennel,
Mountcastle and Nathaniel Lowe.
He's just a one-year rental as opposed to the two years.
So the price you would figure from the Diamondback side is going to be a little bit lower
as a result of that.
I think if anything, this might be a little bit of an overpay on the Diamondback side
of things.
But we have Alec Thomas going to Cleveland in exchange for Josh Naler.
I think this does make a pretty good amount of sense for Cleveland as far as I can tell.
They could use a center fielder.
I don't think they really want Lane Thomas playing center field moving forward.
forward. So this would allow them to move Lane Thomas to a corner. You know, they have some other,
some other corner outfielders in the mix as well. Obviously, Stephen Kwan, you don't expect him to
go anywhere in left field anytime soon. But yeah, I think it could make sense for Cleveland.
Maybe if you're a D-Backs fan, you don't really want to give up four years of control of Alec Thomas for
just one season of Josh Naylor, which I very much understand. Maybe there's a way to get this to work
without giving up Alec Thomas, but he made a little bit too much sense to me here for, for me
to go a different direction.
Leave that one up, large intimate.
I like this comment from 2BMC.
He says, used to play ball with Naylor in Toronto growing up.
He was this chubby 12-year-old prodigy playing against high schoolers and absolutely owning
them with 400-foot bombs.
God, I need video of this, especially if we end up with him on the diamond bags.
But he is a large man for sure.
I love it.
But, yeah, he's a really good hitter.
And it's not just power with Naylor.
Like this year, you're only at 243.
in 2023, he hit 308 with a 489 slugging percentage.
So you can, you can, you can, you can, you can dream on, on Josh Naylor a little bit
offensively.
I think there could be more in the tank than, you know, kind of the lower batting average,
lower OPP guy that we saw this past season.
I know, but again, there's something here about that, you know, there's options out
there that would cost similar as Alec Thomas that will get you more years of control.
Potentially.
I guess potentially fit the, you know, fit the mold here, not the mold, but the core.
You know what I mean?
And maybe just be a part of this team for years to come.
We've talked about it.
The Diamondbacks, it's not an all-in situation in 2025, but it does feel like they're going to go for it, right?
It feels like they're going to make an attempt.
However, they can't really mortgage the future, you know, beyond 2025 in order to do so.
And they have a lot, they're going to have a lot of issues with filling roles beyond the 2025.
season 2026 and beyond.
So right now, it would be a nice start to at least have, you know, some sort of stability
over there at first base that makes you feel like you're not losing too much with Christian
Walker potentially going to another team while still securing that person for a similar time
period as what Christian Walker is looking for, you know, some sort of three-year deal that just
makes you feel like in that time frame, the Diamondback should be able to figure out what their
future at first base is going to be beyond whoever they pick up.
And who knows?
I mean, maybe if you acquire Josh Naylor for his final year before free agency,
maybe he likes it in Arizona.
And then you're talking about a contract extension.
Again, the defense is it's not alarmingly below average,
but it did not grade out well in 2024.
You project out Nailer, you know, two, three seasons into the future.
You're maybe wondering about like what exactly the defense looks like at first base.
I will say from the guardian side, like, well, I think Alex Thomas could be a pretty nice get for them.
Josh Naylor is a really important part of their offense.
There are not a lot of big boppers in that Cleveland Guardians lineup.
We certainly saw this throughout the postseason.
And this is a team that just went to the ALCS.
Like if they're going to move one of their middle of the order guys,
and clearly Alec Thomas does not replace Naylor in the middle of that lineup,
the guardians would have to have some sort of a backup plan to fill at first base,
which I guess they do in some ways.
Kyle Manzardo is a prospect they recently acquired one of the best in in all of baseball,
and I think could step in and fill at first base.
So maybe the answer is as simple as that.
And the guardians feel like he's ready to take over that spot.
A reminder for the Diamondbacks, the best replacement for Christian Walker is still Christian Walker.
And it's never not going to be.
So don't ever think that we ever feel differently about that.
B.L. Boyd says, to be honest, unless the Yankees move, there will never be an MLB salary cap.
they will too much power.
Yeah.
And I don't know if it's really the Yankees.
It's not necessarily.
It's the MLBPA.
I think.
Yeah.
The union would never agree to at least based on conversations that have been had in
recent years, the union has given no indication of having any interest in any kind of a salary
cap.
I will say the one thing that really, you know, that I've defended about baseball not having a salary
cap is that it sucks to be a baseball player when you're not one of these.
elite guys like Blake Snell or Juan Soto or I mean even Christian Walker right Christian Walker is now
at a point in his career where he's going to finally get that big payday and get that money sure but
up to this point he hasn't been able to and a lot of players aren't they're held under so many teams
for years of control by teams that they don't get a chance to break out and get much more rather than
going through that terrible process of arbitration to get more money and I mean it just it sucks for
about, I don't know, 80% of the players in baseball that play it. I'm including minor leaguers in that.
80% of baseball players live kind of a crappy financial life. And then there's that other 20%.
I mean, if you include all minor league players, it's probably a lot more than 80%. Yeah, because of how many
leaders there are. Well, if you're not, if you're not one of those highly coveted free agents,
you know, which there's, there's not all that many of them. That is in what you're like fifth year of
playing time in baseball, right? Six years of short of.
to even reach free agency.
And you can make some money before then.
Like arbitration does allow guys.
Signing bonuses can be big if you were a high draft pick as well.
But you're right.
Until you get to six years of service,
you're not raking in like the,
you know,
the $20, $25 million per year type salary.
Unless you're like Shohei Otani.
I think he got about $20 million in his last year of arbitration.
Juan Soto,
similar story there.
But most guys aren't getting anywhere close to that number
until they reach that six years.
service. Well, of course, we are going to talk one more little bit of Diamondbacks news,
and that is who MLB.com selected as a potential rookie of the year candidate for the snakes in 2025.
We will have that on the other side of this break. Please don't go anywhere.
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MLB.com did release their list of naming one 2025 rookie year candidate for each team.
And for the Arizona Diamondbacks, they selected shortstop Jordan Lawler, which makes so much sense.
And honestly, Jordan Lawler has a great chance to have his breakout season this year.
I know that there's been a lot of things kind of holding him back, limiting him, but it really feels like he's starting to put together.
He was playing in the Lidom Winter League and had some success there.
And I mean, again, is just still getting back on track to being healthy and having, you know, making his major league debut in 2025.
The big question is just how much is he going to play, right?
I mean, I think if you give Jordan Lawler 550 plate appearances in the regular season, like, who knows?
Maybe he, I mean, it didn't look great in late 2023 when we saw him in the majors for the first time.
But that was what, like 35 plate appearances?
I don't think you're you're too alarmed by any of that.
So if the opportunity were there, it wouldn't be shocking to see Jordan Lawler find a way to really be in that rookie of the year conversation.
However, there isn't really a clear path for him right now, right?
Geraldo Perdomo, he figures to be your everyday shortstop.
Diamondbacks picked up the Gino Svora's option.
So he's your everyday third baseman.
It sounds like the team very much plans on having Lawler start the year in AAA and then, you know, get some reps at that level, which he really hasn't had many of over the last.
last couple years and then at some point during the season get that call up so if you're not you know
if you're not even getting a taste of the majors until the middle of the season it's really hard to be a
legitimate rookie of the year candidate so that that's the biggest question here for me i i do think that
you are right there you know when you look at perdomo we know he is the on field general it you have a
hard time believing that perdomo could really yeah be outperformed enough by jordan law there to lose
the starting spot at shortstop.
You also have the same, you know, you have financial considerations with Gino, plus
Gino was incredible from July on last season.
And you kind of have to stick with him if he struggles, right?
Yeah, you do.
Yeah, you know, you've already seen him down.
You know, you can't really cut him because he did last year too.
We had that talk.
And he had a 30-100 season anyway.
Yeah, I mean, I think honestly, based on what we heard from Mike Hayes and Nick Bacorro's article,
the only opportunity he might have is either through injury obviously or through center field,
which the Diamondbacks have talked about potentially playing Lawler or Blaze Alexander there.
It's doubtful.
Like it's hard to believe that they would change his position.
Suddenly he would be so successful there that he could end up being a rookie of the year candidate.
But like Jesse can't wait to jump in and say right now, it happened with Jackson Merrill, didn't it?
So you can't completely disregard that being a thing that happens, right?
So I do think that Jordan Lawler is going to have an impact on this team in 2025.
I just don't know.
I agree with you.
I don't know how.
After what I've seen, after what we've seen, I have a hard time ever thinking a team is going to remain healthy for an entire season.
So, you know, the way that we had a chance to see certain guys in 2024 was due to injury and due to need.
We could very much have that with Jordan Lawler.
We probably would have seen him in 2024 had he not got.
injured himself. Lawler is currently playing out in the Dominican and things aren't great for him
out there at 237, 315, 355 slash sign. That's a 670 OPS. His strikeout rate is right around 30%,
which is quite high. Granted, you know, I want to give the pitchers in the Dominican Winter
League there, their dues. There's some, there's some legends out there. It's for Ronald Rodney
pitching out there. I don't know if he's pitching this.
year. I don't think I've seen his name pop up in any box scores yet, but it feels like only a
matter of time. Yeah, I mean, there's something to be said about the difference of pitching
that you see in a league like that. You're not necessarily getting, it's not like AFL where it's
like, oh, it's a bunch of young guys that are up in combs and, and you know, at a similar level.
Probably a higher quality of pitching than you'd see in the fall league, which is maybe more
of an indictment on the fall league than anything else. We just don't see a ton of pitching talent
there. In the lead dome, you have like vets. You have guys that are done.
playing the game of baseball major league level and they're still playing in the dominican winter
league right so i think that's it it's the you don't you don't get that big of a i guess a skill
level difference from guys that are up-and-comers and and that are you know rookie of the year
candidates like jordan lawler and then you still have you know vets that that that have been
doing it for 15 years that are in there and i guess there that's it's a good place to learn you
can get a lot of experience from that kind of environment that you really couldn't learn i guess
from AFL.
But yeah, it'll be fun to see.
And again, the Diamondbacks are considering they're going to need to get creative
with the ways that they make this team deep and competitive in 2025.
Lawler's name should be a name that we see as a part of that in some way.
Draft House says Aeronado and Goldschmidt out for outfielder,
young pitcher, Montgomery, and Cash.
Well, Goldschmidt's a free agent.
And Aeronado, we have no choice.
We have to talk about Aeronado eventually.
So that's probably going to happen on Monday.
uh or friday i don't know i'm i'm confused about this week already i just don't erinato the diamondbacks black friday bargain gross he's got that's gonna be the actual headline he's gonna stick to that you guys is not gonna change it but uh we hope you come back on friday and more importantly we hope you have a wonderful thanksgiving tomorrow with your loved one with your friends we hope you eat lots of food uh and remember you don't have to cook a turkey don't let people bully you into cooking turkey you can cook ribs you can cook uh anything you want it's your life live your best life and that's something
something you should do on Thanksgiving.
We are thankful for all of you.
I'm thankful for this guy and for Kev.
These guys help make this show wonderful.
I'm just here.
I'm just here, but you can follow us on Twitter.
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Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
Not anymore.
What did you, do you change it to something?
Oh, I fixed it, Derek.
What did you change your handle to?
Now it's Kev-O posts.
It's what?
Kev-O-post.
So the same name I am in the chat, K-V-O posts.
There you go.
You can find.
Way simple, because I really don't write anymore.
Yeah, no more mystery.
So there you go.
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We thank you guys so much.
We hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving.
We are so thankful for all of you for being here.
We will see you on Friday.
I hope you have a wonderful day off and remember kids.
Baseball is fun, but it might not be fun anymore thanks to the Dodgers.
