PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Ep. 15: Four Surprises & Four Disappointments of the 2019 Diamondbacks

Episode Date: October 18, 2019

We discuss our biggest surprises and disappointments from the 2019 Diamondbacks, and offer a quick preview into our offseason coverage and what Mike Hazen & co. may be looking to do this winter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to episode 15 of the Rattle Podcast. As always, I'm your host, Jesse Friedman, along with the one, the only Jeff Weiser. Jeff, it has been right around a month to the day since we recorded our last show back on September 17th. Since then, the Diamondback season has, of course, concluded not making the playoffs, as things have turned out, they finished the season 85 and 77. By all accounts, Jeff, I think this will go down as a. a successful campaign for the Diamondbacks a year that they were probably not expected to do a whole lot if we're being honest with ourselves. A lot of people pegged this team to be right

around 500 or perhaps a little bit below. I think those were roughly in line with our expectations as well. But Jeff, you look back on this season, 85 wins for a team that just traded their perennial superstar and Paul Goldschmidt. That's certainly, you know, something to be excited about moving forward. Yeah, I mean, if there was one constant this season, it was kind of change, right? I mean, we saw a lot of fresh faces, a lot of, you know, new pitchers, new position players, and sort of like the team forming, I guess, kind of a new identity with Patrick Corby, Paul Goldschmidt, you know, A.J. Pollock, and then eventually, Zach Granky, you know,

leaving the team. So it certainly felt like a different kind of year. But at the same time, yeah, it was sort of refreshing to have a little bit of that turnover. And while it was, you know, hard, hard to see some of those guys go, it was kind of neat to see the team take a new shape. And yet, you know, as you mentioned, still kind of probably exceed like public expectations.

So that was kind of cool. I mean, I think it was a, I think it was an entertaining season, to say the least. I think anytime you have a team that is just not really expected to have any destiny whatsoever, even make a remote amount of noise in September, you really have to feel like that was a success. There was a day in September just several weeks ago when I did, as you know, Jeff, an emergency episode, the night of a Diamondbacks win, you weren't available to be there. I was like, hey, I'm jumping on the air right now. The Diamondbacks had won several games in a row.

they were, I believe, a game and a half out of the wild card race at that point here in the month of September, you know, just as the playoff race is building up. And of course, I'm pretty sure I jinked something because the Diamondbacks went on to lose, I believe, seven of their next eight games following that show. But nonetheless, you know, just the fact that this Diamondbacks team was able to make noise, that they were able to be entertaining. I think a lot of people really enjoyed watching this team, even if, you know, even if they weren't. not necessarily winning every single game or really in the thick of the race throughout the whole season.

This was a fun team to watch. And I think a likable team with a lot of fun personalities, there were some players who really broke out. Eduardo Escobar, the 35 home runs, Ketel Marte, unfortunately got hurt at the end of the year, which might have damaged his chances in an MVP race that, frankly, probably wouldn't have gone his way anyway. But he's still undoubtedly in that conversation with the season that he had. there's just a lot to like when you look up and down this roster and when you look at this franchise

and their position moving forward into next year they've got an offseason ahead of them they actually have some money to spend following the Zach Ranky trade right around 35 to 40 million dollars we're estimating is what they'll have to spend over this off season which i know we'll we'll talk about a little bit later but jeff it seems like this team just checked a lot of boxes unfortunately not one of those was the playoffs but none of those but none of the still a successful campaign by many, many different measures. Yeah, and I think there was a large chunk of the season that we commented on, right, where the team just fluctuated, you know, plus and minus of like two games of 500.

Right. And while that was frustrating in the sense, it also meant that on a nightly basis, they could win. And they weren't, you know, ripping off, you know, a ton of wins until that one little hot streak in September. But really, you know, that meant, I think, on a night-in, night-out basis, you kind of didn't know what to expect. I mean, think about if you were a fan of the Detroit Tigers this year or, you know, something like that. I mean, it certainly was more exciting than that. And so every night you knew they were going to be competitive. You knew they were probably going to play, you know, a reasonably close ball game.

And so I think in that regard, the season was really fun. You didn't quite know how every game was going to go, but that almost compelled, at least me, you know, to really stay engaged with the season. And, you know, you mentioned the breakouts and some of the guys that took steps forward. And, you know, you start seeing the writing on the wall of what, you know, the next version of this team is going to look like. And so, you know, it wasn't like a tear down and a rebuild, but it was certainly exciting in the sense that we got to see new guys kind of like step into that role of, you know, the run pretty. the home run hitter, the table setter, you know, guys filling the rotation, you know, really solidly. So you can kind of see now, like it paints a picture of what I think we'll see in 2020 and beyond.

I want to jump in as you're talking about some of the guys on this team who really took steps forward this season. We've got a list here of some surprises and disappointments that we want to run through here from the 2019 Diamondback season. I'll go ahead and get us started, Jeff. then I'll pitch it over to you. My first surprise is Catele-Marté. And I know he already mentioned his name.

It's hard to talk about the Diamondbacks for longer than five minutes and not mention his name at this point because he truly made a name for himself around the game of baseball. He took a step forward into the national spotlight. I think he's now viewed by many people as a potential superstar long-term in this league. If he has a season like this against next year, I think he will officially move into that range.

range of, you know, the Yelich type players, the Bellinger type players, those guys who are truly, truly game changers night in and nine out. Ketel Marte with his defensive versatility, moving into center field, playing that position very well. And heck, he hit 329 this year, 32 home runs, 92 RBIs. He stole 10 bases, all while playing excellent defense at second base and at center field. Jeff, Ketel Marte is my first surprise. I have to just like eat a big old pile of crow here but I really did not expect him to take to the defensive adjustment to center field nearly as well as he did. And I have to own that. And I really think maybe where I got off base was just maybe not acknowledging what a supreme athlete he is.

he wasn't taking outfield reps, you know, really until spring training started or until he showed up and reported to camp. So it wasn't like he spent, you know, October, November, December, January, February, you know, all this time, you know, planning for this, this move to center field. And so with a relatively, you know, short amount of time and considering what it had looked like when he played a little center field in Seattle, I just did not have the expectations. but he was really good in center. And then obviously, I mean, the bat speaks for itself, right?

But he took a huge step forward, and it looks like the Diamondbacks have, you know, one of the biggest building blocks, you know, in baseball on their team for the foreseeable future at an incredible discount. I'll move on to a disappointment now. For me, my first disappointment is Jake Lamb, who really struggled with injuries this season, of course, as he has over the last couple of years now.

226 plate appearances overall for Jake Lamb this season. He's 28 years old, so in theory, you kind of figure that Jake Lamb is right at the heart of his career right now, but he's really been derailed by injuries. The numbers, not too pretty, a 193 batting average OPS south of 700 at 677. Jake Lamb, Jeff, I think we've talked about that in past shows, is unfortunately probably a pretty good non-tender candidate for the Diamondbacks. Given just the lack of production over the last couple years, it's starting to get difficult to justify keeping a guy on the roster who's frankly a little one-dimensional.

He plays a decent third base, but, you know, he's certainly not a gold glove type over there at the hot corner. And we also know that he doesn't tend to hit left-handed pitching real well. So his value really comes down to hitting right-handed pitching. And this season and now last season as well for back-to-back years, he's really struggled with injuries. And when he has been on the field, he just really has not been the same guy as he's been in the past. I think you nailed it when you said that he was one-dimensional.

And that to me is the most problematic portion of Jack Lam's game is that, you know, really relies on just feasts off of right-handed pitching. you know, and doing damage there. But he really provides you little to nothing else. And so with the injuries, with the missed time, it's cut into like the one thing he does well. And when you're down to one thing and you're not doing that well, that makes you pretty easily expendable. And I also think that, you know, any hope that we had of him really turning his, you know, one dimensionality around and becoming perhaps a more best. balanced hitter against left-handed pitching. He's missed so many reps at this point that it's

hard to imagine him at this age really turning like a major corner against left-handed pitching, which is, you know, unfortunate for him and just kind of a story of bad timing. Whether or not he ever would have really done that is debatable. But the chance to do it seems to have kind of escaped him a bit with all the missed time. And so, yeah, I just have a really hard time seeing him, you know, continue to have a future for, for the diamond backs. You know what, Jeff? I'm looking at Jake Lamb's platoon splits from this last season. And this is probably two to a small sample size, but here we go.

Against right-handed pitching, Jake Lamb hit 177, 308 on base, 299 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching, 304, 429 on base, 739 slugging percentage. Jeff, am I going crazy here? I mean, it's a sample of 28 plate appearances. So I'm assuming that's what's it played here. Did you see Jake Lamb make any adjustments against lefties that maybe I didn't notice? Not really. I mean, yeah, I definitely go with the small sample size disclaimer there.

You know, and maybe it's a sign of something that maybe is something small that he did. But, you know, there's a big difference between, you know, what happened in 28 plate appearances and what you think is going to happen over the next, you know, three, four, five years. And so, right. It's pretty hard to do to deduce like a, like a real skill change there. But, but no, it's a good note for sure. And he's going to need to, you know, continue to kind of showcase that to really even have like a major league future because, I mean, let's face it, how many teams are out there chomping at the bit for, you know, below average third baseman who can only hit, you know, right-handed pitching.

I mean, that's a pretty unique skill set. So he'd really kind of need to be in like the right situation to really, you know, have, you know, a strong future. And I'm sure there's a club out there that could use that. But it's probably not the Diamondbacks. I'll go back to a surprise. Surprise number two for me is the Zach Allen Jazz Chisholm trade, which came down, I believe, on trade deadline day, July 31st,

the day, Zach Gallen coming over to the Diamondbacks, a 23-year-old starting pitcher from the Miami Marlins, who had a sub-3 ERA during his time with the Marlins this season and his rookie year, came over to the Diamondbacks, pitched basically just as well, and really maybe debunked any concerns that what he did over with Miami was just a complete fluke. A lot of people have talked about him as, you know, more of a number three, number four starter type. I think he might have showed that he can be even maybe a little bit better than that. And for me, Jeff, this surprise is not just, you know, the fact that Zach Gallen came over here and pitched really well, but the fact that the time and backs went out and made this trade.

The fact that they went out, they traded who many considered to be their number one overall prospect in Jazz Chisholm, who, by the way, went over to the Miami Marlins, put up some pretty good numbers over there with their double a team. But I think it was a fascinating move by the Diamondbacks. Two of the top prospects in both of these organizations swapping places. The Diamondbacks apparently decided to go with the pitching side of things and go with more of a sure product in Zach Gallin, a guy who's already made it to the majors,

and who not only with the Marlins, but now also with the Diamondbacks, has had quite a bit of success at doing that. Yeah, it's a bold move. for sure. We don't see these kinds of trades very often. I remember sort of discussing this, you know, in our sort of deadline wrap-up. But, you know, it's kind of your classical, like, challenge trade, right? I mean, it's not, you know, we'll talk about another trade here in a minute, but it's not a lopsided trade on either side. It's really like us betting that this young,

cost-controlled arm is for real. And, you know, the Marlins betting that Jazz Chisholms, you know, struggles to make, you know, consistent contact or able to be fixed. And so you sort of have, you have two sides really, you know, betting in their chosen direction. But we don't see that in baseball very often these days. And so very fascinating. I mean, cost control starting pitching is always hard to find and difficult to develop with the number of injuries that happened to pitchers across the game. So definitely surprising. Definitely not a trade that I saw coming. Yeah, the numbers on Jazz Chisholm over with AA Jacksonville. Of course, it was AA Jackson with the Diamondbacks,

AA Jacksonville with the Miami Marlins. He had 284 in his time. There are a pretty small sample, just 23 games, but an OPS of 877. That 284 marks certainly a big improvement over the 204 average that he posted with the Diamondbacks. The strikeout rate was also dramatically quite a bit lower as well. So definitely a guy to continue to monitor. monitor. I'll switch back over to my to my second and final disappointment. And that it's an interesting one because I don't think he was necessarily all that disappointing, but I think it's

disappointing just that he continues to not take steps forward. And as a listener, you might know who I'm talking about already. It's Diamondback's starting pitcher Robbie Ray. And Robbie Ray, of course, a guy that the Diamondbacks engaged in quite a few conversations about during the trade deadline. There was rumors that the Diamondbacks are maybe going to get Clint Frazier from the Yankees in exchange for Robbie Ray, though it's still, it's kind of a big question whether or not there was anything ever to those rumors at all. But nonetheless, this is a guy who was about to enter the final year of his contract here with the Diamondbacks. And back in 2017, the last time the Diamondbacks made the playoffs, Robbie Ray was their number two starter. And maybe not even

the number two starter on this team behind Granky. He was basically the 1A. He had, had an ERA of 2.89 that year. He won 15 games. He was a really, really good pitcher a couple years ago. And unfortunately, he just hasn't really been able to recreate whatever was going for him that year. The command has continued to be sporadic. The velocity continues to dip, which is certainly concerning for a guy who's who's still in his upper 20s on the right side of 30, if you will. I think Robbie Ray is a guy that a lot of people have had really big expectations for. And while he's certainly, you know, a passable starting pitcher, he's still a decent mid-rotation arm to have on your team.

He is far from, you know, useless to have on your roster. But unfortunately, Robbie Ray has just fallen well short of the lofty expectations that we placed on him two years ago. Yeah, I would agree. I mean, it's hard to knock a guy who's as productive as he is. I mean, it's not like we're sitting here saying he's not a good player or a good pitcher. But yeah, it just, you know, you could see, you know, at times, you know, a power fastball. And some of that's kind of gone away as a velocity was down about a mile and a half per hour this year and with this four seamer.

And, you know, that's maybe a bit concerning. But yeah, he just, he still posted like, you know, pretty excellent strikeout numbers. with the walks crept back up, the home run started to creep back up. And it's just, you know, you look at a guy with quite a bit of potential, just kind of struggle to put it together, struggle to go deep into ball games, which, you know, in today's world is not that big of a deal. But at the same time, it's not like the Diamondbacks have the deepest, strongest bullpen to back him up.

So I'm kind of right there with you. I really wish he would kind of take that big step forward, that one that we've, you know, really wanted to see. And, you know, we've seen it in the past. We've seen it in fits and starts, but, you know, it just doesn't seem to stick. And so it kind of leaves us, I think, with some questions as to, you know, what his ultimate future is. But, you know, I think that's a good, that's a, that's a good one there, a good, good

one to identify. And I'll kind of kick it over to my, to my surprises. And my biggest surprise was this Zach Grankey trade. Not so much that they traded him. I mean, I didn't necessarily expect that he would be traded. But we certainly knew that they were open to the idea. But to me, the biggest surprise and the thing that I couldn't believe when I saw the news was that, you know, they only ate $24 million over the life of the remaining life of the contract. And that they were able to get back like some actually valuable prospects in return.

So I was, I was pretty shocked. I had always assumed that the framework of any deal, and it's been well chronicled now how that deal went down. But I just kind of assumed that they'd end up eating a lot more money and probably getting a lot less back in return. So, you know, once again, as we've talked about, credit to Mike Hazen for kind of standing his ground. But that really surprised me. And with Gowan's addition, I mean, they had someone to at least, you know, actually fill the slot. But very surprised at the return, they were able to get back and the limited amount of money they had to eat. Yeah, yeah, I think that's a great one.

I believe I've told the story before on this show, or maybe people have just noticed, but I'll tell it again real quick. I wrote an article the night before the Zach Rakey trade explaining why the Diamondbacks should hold on to Zach Ranky. And sure enough, about 15, 16 hours later, right as the deadline passed, the Diamondbacks went ahead and made that move. But Jeff, I'm with you. I was really surprised that the Diamondbacks were even able to get what they got in this trade. and I think the storyline of the deal itself is really important here.

Mike Hazen and the general manager of the Houston Astros as well, both confirmed this following the deal. Mike Hazen basically came to the Astros with the price tag that it would take to acquire Zach Granke, and he was not going to budge on that price tag, and it was initially his feeling that the Astros were not going to meet that price, and for a while they weren't. The talks were basically dead by all accounts. until on trade deadline day, the Astros called up Mike Hayes and the Diamondbacks and said,

hey, we can make this work. And I think from the Diamondback standpoint, I think it has to be good to see that this front office is finally standing its ground a little bit based on, you know, what has happened in past years with the Dave Stewart regime. There was certainly a sense that the Diamondbacks front office would get rolled over in these trade negotiations on occasion. And what happened here was clearly not the case. or that was clearly not the case in this situation.

And I think it certainly speaks to Mike Hazen and the fact that he knows how to do this, right? He knows how to negotiate and how to get, you know, top dollar for his players. And I think Zach Ranky, this trade is certainly evidence of that. No, I completely agree. That Robbie Ray for Clint Fraser thing may not be all the way dead. I don't know. We'll explore that later. But no, I agree.

And I'll kind of pivot over to one of my disappointments. And that was Yoshi-Hirano. You know, in a year that I think the Diamondbacks really needed bullpen help, as, you know, we saw on a fairly regular basis. You know, he ended up finishing out the second year of his contract and just really wasn't quite the pitcher that we were all probably hoping for. His surface level numbers, you know, aren't terrible. the 475 ERA is is high but he probably pitched a little bit better than that but at the same time they really needed someone to turn to to be able to come in in the seventh or eighth inning and really shut people down and he struggled to do that on a consistent basis and that was really

really disappointing he's always been a guy that you know without overpowering stuff right just has to be super fine with that fastball in order to get to the split finger and talked about Jake Lamb being kind of a one-dimensional player. Yoshi-Hirano basically has, you know, one pitch, and it's that splitter. But he can't get to it if the fastball command isn't there. And we saw him get punished enough that it was pretty disappointing. I'm not sure that he'll be back in the majors next year. It's possible.

I also don't know if he'll head back overseas or really what his plans are. But, you know, when the Diamondbacks really were, you know, we could argue, you know, a bullpen piece or two away from probably making an even stronger push for the playoffs. They could have had that internally with Heron. But he really didn't back up the 2018 season that he had the way that you would like. And unfortunately, that just, I think, you know, really cost the team. I mean, his IRA was, you know, two and a quarter runs higher. this season than it was before. And yeah, a lot of that had to do with giving up home runs.

He struck out more guys this season. But the walks were a little higher and he definitely got hit, got hit harder. So a little bit of a disappointment there. Yeah, I think Yoshi-Hirano's struggles are, unfortunately, he wasn't alone. I guess that's unfortunate. Yeah. There were other, you know, quite a few other guys up and down that bullpen that also just had similarly difficult years, and it felt like one of those seasons where just about everyone

is just not really at the top of their game. Archie Bradley struggled quite a bit earlier in the season, eventually kind of figured things out. I know I think you're going to talk about him more in a second. But yeah, this bullpen has just continued to keep the diamondbacks kind of right in the middle. It's kind of felt like since the Mike Hazen, Tori Lavello regime took over here in Arizona, this team has been quite good. but their bullpen has never really been quite good to live up with, you know, some of the starting pitchers that they've had and some of the position players they've had. And I think as we talked about before, you've got some money to spend over this offseason 35 to 40 million dollars. That is undoubtedly

probably the biggest need that this Diamondbacks team will have to fill. Yeah. And since you mentioned, let's just move right over to my second disappointment. That way we can end on a high note. But yeah, we would definitely be Archie Bradley. And, again, you're looking at a guy that, you know, surface numbers really pretty good. You know, he had an ERA just barely over three, which by no means is terrible. Struck out 27.8% of batters. I mean, that's pretty good. But the walks really crept up on him. And I think more than, more than statistics, this one for me feels like kind of a matter of execution. I never felt very comfortable with Archie Bradley pitching the ninth inning.

It always seemed a little rocky. And so even though the numbers look good, he just kind of failed to really, like, instill confidence and take that step forward. I feel like he was still kind of the same guy. And so he's another guy who I think had a real opportunity to kind of, you know, make that big step. And he certainly had his struggles kind of midway through the season. and then picked it up towards the end. But if he's going to be a closer or even, you know, like a go-to set-up guy, I think his day-to-day variance has got to come down a little bit.

He's got to be a little bit more reliable. And to me, that's kind of why he fell short for me. I just never really felt all that comfortable with him. Let me ask you a question, Jeff. I'm curious. If, you know, the Diamondbacks, we know they're going to go out. They're going to pursue some bullpen. help over the course of this offseason.

But I think we have to at least consider the idea that it's possible the Diamondbacks start 2020 with no better option in their bullpen than Archie Bradley to start the season as closer. Do you think, Jeff, that he is the favorite to be the Diamondbacks 2020 closer right now? If you just had to pick someone, do you think he has the highest chance of anyone? Yeah, I mean, as things that now, I think he probably is that guy. The question is whether or not you want him to be that guy. And so to me that's where it's a little tricky.

You know, and it's not like he was a wildly different pitcher last year. He definitely allowed more walks. And that did come back to Biden, but he did strike out a few more batters as well. So, you know, you kind of look at him as a guy that definitely has some flaws to his game. You know, just for whatever reason, you know, the fastball commitment. man just never seems to really be there for him. And that's, that's pretty unfortunate.

It makes it really tough to kind of, you know, really, really bank on him when that pitch just isn't there. And then he's, he's really down to, you know, kind of, you know,

just having his curve ball. And when that pitch isn't on either or, you know, there's times that he can, he can locate it for strikes, but he has a hard time kind of commanding it from the strike look into a ball at times. it just really detracts from from his ability to put guys away and so i think he probably is that guy

as things stand now but uh you know is that what you ultimately want probably not one one final thing on on archie i think this is actually really interesting i'm shocked looking at these numbers rj bradley really struggled before the all-star break a 495 r a r a whip was absurdly high at 1.73 going into the all-star break you look at it his numbers after the All-Star break, though. He was 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA. He was 18 for 19 in save opportunities, 33 strikeouts over 31 and 2-thirds innings,

held opposing hitters to a batting average of just 191. That actually, you know, gives me at least a little bit of confidence in Archie Bradley taking over that closer role, maybe a little bit more long-term. And as much as it felt like he was really shaky in the ninth inning often, down the stretch of the season, it also felt like he really got the job done almost every single time, even if it was a little bit eventful. And at the end of the day, you know, we've seen before, you know, aka, you know, maybe you're thinking of Fernando Rodney or Brad Boxburger or Greg Holland or frankly any of the closers that have been with this organization over the last few years.

Even if it's not pretty, it can work at least for a time. And Archie Bradley, I think, was he was at least good enough to make me feel that the diamond backs, I don't think they'd be doomed if Archie Bradley was their closer to start 2020. I don't think it's ideal, but I think he's certainly passable in that role. Yeah, I agree. To me, it's like, which one of those two guys are you going to get? And so I could, I could certainly stand on my end to really dig in and see if, you know, did he do something mechanically that helped him thrive there in the second half? Did they, you know, use that four-day break to really, like, go over some things. and work on stuff.

I've talked a lot in the past about how difficult it is for relievers to make adjustments in season because they never know when they're going to get used. It's not like you can go out and throw 50 pitches in the bullpen to work on something the night before a game in which you may get your number called. So it's really challenging for them. And I'd like to see if there really is anything tangible there or, you know, was it a similar process with just better results? So yeah.

But I agree. I mean, you look at the surface and, you know, you're like, well, that's, that's a It's not a bad relief pitcher. I think the rub for me is that, you know, I see him as a guy who, you know, has the makings or has the ability potentially to be quite a bit better than that. So hopefully we get more of that same, you know, second half version next year. And I'll finish with my final surprise. And that was Carson Kelly.

You know, Carson Kelly coming over in the Paul Goldschmidt trade was, you know, arguably the co-center piece of that deal. And what I really think is interesting with him is that the narrative there was that he just never got enough playing time in St. Louis to really show that he could be a quality major league hitter. That's I feel like that was probably a pretty fair assessment considering, you know, he was, you know, very rarely used bouncing between AAA and the majors. But at the same time, that's like a risky bet, right? Because what if the guy that he was really is who he was supposed to be in the majors? You know, that's a pretty underwhelming asset to go out to trade, frankly, your best player for. So the fact that he backed that narrative up and then, you know, came and showed that with real regular playing time, he could not just be a good hitter for a catcher, but actually just be a good hitter for baseball.

That was really awesome. And to get any kind of really significant production from behind the plate while still having a good defender and a good receiver back there is a big deal. And I think Carson Kelly is probably kind of an understated building block for this franchise. Yeah, I think Carson Kelly was in many ways, maybe the most exciting player to watch on this team aside from Coutelle Marte. You seem to have a bit of a flare for the dramatic too. I remember a game, I believe, against the Dodgers where he had the tying home run and then he hit the go-ahead home run in extra earnings. Diamondbacks wound up winning that game in dramatic fashion. Carson Kelly is a really good player.

And like you're saying, I think the Diamondbacks fans have really endeared him. I think they've certainly come to like him both as a person and a player. And I think it's really eased the wound of losing Paul Goldschmidt just to get, you know, a young. up-and-coming player at a very important position, you know, a catcher. And all those things said, I will say I don't think Carson Kelly is a perfect player or a proven commodity. I think we can get a little ahead of ourselves if, you know, we start thinking, oh, this is, you know, this is Buster Posey during his prime or anything along those lines. He definitely had his flaws. He really struggled down the stretch of the season. He finished 24-104.

over the last two months of the season in August and September, he hit below 200. He hit 207 after the All-Star break. And then he also had pretty dramatic platoon splits as well against lefties, way up at 356 against lefties with an OPS north of 1100 against righties all the way down to 203 with a 708 OPS. So I think Carson Kelly is definitely not a finished product at this point his career by any means,

but certainly an exciting piece to have. of moving forward. And heck, the diamond backs haven't had any kind of stability at the catching position since Miguel Montaro, you know, almost a decade ago. And I think that in itself brings a lot of excitement about, you know, a guy like Carson Kelly who's still just 25 years old. Yeah. I mean, just turned 25 in July. You look at it. He's under team control for shoot through 24, I believe. So it's, you know, he's going to be around for a long time. And I think, I think the point you made is really important. The one that, he's not necessarily a finished product.

You know, he's just never faced major league pitching with any kind of consistency at all those lessons that he's going to learn and take with him into this offseason and, you know, into camp next spring I think will be really valuable. So, you know, he probably can look and say, okay, here are some things that I did really well. Here are the things that I need to work on. And now he has a plan. And that's something that he can build on.

So I certainly think, you know, think that he's a really strong asset for the team. And I mean, frankly, even if he took a small step backwards offensively, which I don't really think is necessarily going to happen. But there's enough room considering that he's a catcher that, I mean, he could. He'd still be a valuable player. So quite the piece to have on your hands. I don't think anyone's upset about that.

I want to move on to our final segment of the show here. We're just going to give a quick little sneak preview to what the Diamondbacks might consider doing this offseason. We talked about a few random thoughts in our last episode back in mid-September. We'll throw out a few more thoughts now. Jeff, I know you've run the numbers, as we talked about earlier in the episode, right around $35 to $40 million to spend this upcoming off season. Zach Rankie, of course, not completely coming off the books. The Diamondbacks will still eat $24 million of that contract over the next couple of years, but still certainly gave this team quite a bit more breathing room than they had before.

The Diamondback started this season at a pretty high payroll, so I don't know if they're necessarily going to add so much over the offseason to get back to that point. I think it's pretty likely that they'll probably fall a little bit short of where they started out the 2019 season at. But nonetheless, Jeff, there's some wiggle room here that we haven't really seen before in the hands of this front office regime. Mike Hayes in every offseason has kind of just been playing the value game where you know you're trying to get as much for as little as you possibly can. The Diamondbacks actually have a little bit of money to spend.

They're probably going to be looking for an outfielder, some relievers, maybe some stability at second base. We're going to have a lot of very exciting coverage coming over at the Rattle. All three of us have kind of taken different pieces of the offseason. We're going to really delve in deeply and trying to figure out. what it makes the most sense for the Diamondbacks do to do this offseason. We're going to kind of construct our own little offseason plans as we wear the GM hat. But Jeff, just give me your thoughts initially on where you think the Diamondbacks are going to go this offseason. What are they going to be looking for?

And how are they going to spend this money that they now have? Yeah, I think you're right on. I mean, it's really unusual, or at least it feels unusual for the team to have this kind of payroll flexibility. you know and they'll even get a bit more of that in the you know a year from now when yosmani tomas comes off the books so certainly exciting but you highlighted there's kind of a number of needs right and you you clear that salary space by you know taking players off the payroll well you can take players off the pay role but you still need someone to assume their their position on the team assume their role in the team so you know i think it sounds like mike hasn is pretty

comfortable with the idea of Catelle-Marté continuing to bounce between center field and second base. It sounds like he really, really likes having that flexibility. So that ultimately means that they need someone reliably to play center field when Cattel's a second, and they need someone to reliably play second when he's in center field. So ultimately, I think probably how they decide to allocate money in those two positions depends on what's available. And I think Even with money to play, Mike Hazen will still kind of play the value game there. But there's definitely a need of second. I mean, Wilmer Flores has an option, but it sounds like that's likely to be declined.

And so you kind of have a hole there. You know, and, you know, there's questions around, you know, do you bring Gerard Dyson back? Or do you think Tim LaCastro can handle center field on the days that Catel's a second base? So kind of a lot of things to think about there and kind of suss out like, you know, what's going to be available on the trade market, what's available on the free agent market, like what's the best scenario, how do you line up all the pieces? And then, of course, you still need other GMs and other teams to sort of cooperate with your plans, which, you know, may prove the difficult part.

But yeah, those are definitely spots. They will need a backup catcher. So a be-a-lis contract expires. Do you need a backup catcher? So those are some of the things to consider. We've talked about the bullpen. I could probably use some beefing up. And, you know, I don't think they've spent money on the bullpen, you know, kind of by design.

I mean, if you're sort of a fringe contender, I think, you know, spending a lot of money on your bullpen is probably not the best way to allocate your funds. So a little bit of the bullpen struggles may even be somewhat by design. But I think that's something they'll have to probably shore up. Do you want Robbie Ray to be your ace or, you know, with that much money since you know, in front of you do you want to do something else and put someone else at the top of your rotation that's something they can consider too so um there are a lot of directions to go i'm really excited to be working with you and joshua really as we kind of you know go through uh and look at all of these different rosters across baseball for trade candidates um you know scour the rumor scour

the free agent market and kind of come up with our own plan but there are a lot of ways for my kaysen to go here um and i i think it's going to be a really interesting winner for the diamond much more active and much more interesting that we've probably seen in the last couple years. I think Robbie Ray is maybe the most interesting candidate to be traded on this team from my standpoint. There aren't really a whole lot of guys that the diamond backs obviously would be looking to move throughout their roster. A lot of the guys who are free agents at the end of next year, probably guys are not going to get a whole lot for David Peralta. Might have been a trade candidate, but given the injury and the surgery at the end of the year,

way I think we're pretty confident that's not going to happen. Robbie Ray, it's interesting. We know the Diamondbacks entertained some conversations at the trade deadline. We mentioned the Clint Fraser piece earlier. I think this is, it's an interesting idea for the Diamondbacks. I surely think they will continue to listen on Robbie Ray, especially because the Diamondbacks have a bit of a surplus of rotation arms that they haven't necessarily had in the past. and if Robbie Ray truly is, you know, a pitcher who's going to give you right around a four. This year, I believe it was 434 was his final ERA.

The Diamondbacks can get pretty similar production from, you know, a different guy on this roster who doesn't have nearly the value on the trade market that Robbie Ray does. And in some sense, I think it would be, you know, pretty logical to consider moving that piece that maybe you don't really need and see if a high, upside arm like Robbie Ray can maybe land you a Clint Frazier or you know somebody with with some upside who can plug a different hole on this team yeah I mean it's it is it's uh you you know you can find someone that will give you pretty similar production in terms of the the overall output how what's going to look might be entirely different um you have way fewer strikeouts uh but you may get

someone who can who can give you that extra inning so there are a lot of variables to consider I mean, you know, the way they went about their business was very different. Robbie Ray and Merrill Kelly. But the two of them, you know, and I think if you ask most folks, you know, well, who's the better pitcher? You know, you'd say Robbie Ray. And I would too. But the gap there, you know, at least in terms of their production in 2019, you know, wasn't that wildly different, you know, by the end of the season. Now, what you ultimately think that means for them, you know, next season and beyond is probably a different story.

But I think your point holds that there's a way that they could, you know, perhaps consider addressing that that top of the rotation area and looking for, you know, someone who, you know, can maybe outproduce that a little more reliably. And they have the money to spend, you know, they have, they have currency in the form of prospects. I think my case has a lot of his disposal right now. and he sort of had to clear some hurdles last winter and even midseason with the granky trade and the gallon trade. He had to clear a lot of hurdles to kind of get to this point where I think he's now starting to look at, you know, probably this winter and next, you know, and even maybe the trade deadline next season, really being able to construct this team the way he wants it. And so I'm very interested to see what that looks like because the early returns from his work had been so good. Ladies and gentlemen, you're going to want to keep it locked to www. the rattle.net over the next couple of months.

Give us a couple weeks, and we'll start to get some of this content out there. We're all really excited to play pretend GM for a couple of months over the offseason before things really get going. We're going to craft our own offseason plan. We're going to come up with free agents who we think the Diamondbacks should look at. We're going to come up with trade candidates on other teams that we think the Diamondback should consider trading for. so be sure to be looking out for that.

That's all that we have here for this episode 15. Thank you so much for joining us. We know it's been a little while since you've heard from us here over at the Rattle. I wanted to let the dust settle a little bit following the season. Now we're going to go ahead and jump back into things full speed as best we can. So we certainly appreciate your support along the way. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter. If you have not done so already, you can find us at at the Rattle AZ.

You can find Jeff at Outfield Grass 24. You can find myself at at Jesse, the letter N, followed by my last name, Friedman. We would love to interact with you about this show, about past shows that we've done. So be sure to join us there. Once again, that's all we have here for this 15th episode of the Rattle Podcast. Thank you so much for listening. And we'll be back soon with more about the 2019 and 2020, Arizona Diamondback.