PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Ep. 16: What MadBum Means for the D-backs

Episode Date: December 16, 2019

We discuss the D-backs' investment in Madison Bumgarner, whether or not they should trade Robbie Ray, who they should target in free agency/trades for the rest of the offseason, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to episode 16 of the Rattle Podcast. As always, I'm your host, Jesse Friedman, along with Jeff Weiser, my co-hosts here on the Rattle podcast. And Jeff News has come down hard for the Arizona Diamondbacks here in the last 24 hours, and that very quickly woke us up to do another podcast episode. We know it's been a while, ladies and gentlemen, but it is certainly good to be back with you. And we have some big news to talk about here in the...

this episode following the Diamondback signing of Madison Bumgarner five years, $85 million, $15 million of that is deferred per reports. So as of right now, we would estimate the Diamondbacks are looking at about a $14 million payroll hit for Madison Bumgarner on an annual basis. Me and Jeff have had some just some preliminary conversations about this over text, and I think we feel fairly a little bit differently about it. So Jeff, I'm excited for this. I'll let you have the first move here. What do you think about the diamond back signing Madison Bumgarner? Yeah, it was definitely a surprise. I mean, I think I'm, I think I'm on point in saying that it caught both of us by surprise a little bit. You know, we'd heard the rumblings and seen,

you know, some mention of the two sides negotiating early on. So he wasn't completely off the radar. But yeah, it's a little bit of a surprise nonetheless. It's a, you know, it's a substantial financial commitment for the organization. And, you know, Bum Garner will be 30 next season. And, you know, I think it's pretty safe to say that, you know, his best days are probably behind him. And so, you know, with Mike Haysen being so value-oriented, this move just really caught me by surprise as, you know, the public projections anyways aren't exactly rosy for Bumgarner

going forward. And so this should cover his age 30 through age 34 seasons. This contract will. And so, you know, he's a veteran pitcher with plenty of experience. You know, and a pretty successful track record outside of a couple of, you know, kind of freak injuries, a motorcycle crash and getting hit by a comebacker. So the injury time he's missed hasn't really been, you know, due to a shoulder, an elbow or a knee or a hip or anything like that. So you have to feel, you know, a little bit, a little bit good in that regard. But it is a pretty, you know, it is a pretty significant investment for a guy who, you know, by and large, looks to be just maybe a somewhat above average starting pitcher in the near term.

And then much more like an average to slightly below average starting pitcher towards the end of the deal. Yeah, I think this deal obviously comes with a decent amount of risk. And I think that's a reasonable perspective coming, you know, five years, $85 million. It's not a small investment by any stretch of the imagination. It is certainly relatively small compared to, you know, the $206 million that the Diamondbacks put into a Zach Granky. But I think one note that I, that is interesting that I'll start off with is that obviously, by and large fans across Arizona of this Diamondbacks team, they love this move. We put out a poll on the rattles page.

There's still four hours left as of this moment, so there might be time for you to still cast your vote. But right now we're sitting at 61% said they love the deal. 30% say they like it. So we have 91% of people who say they favor this trade or this deal on some level. and only a whopping 3% dislike it, and Jeff I know is part of that club as of this moment. But this is the kind of move that I know puts people in the seats.

I think there's kind of just a fun element to signing a picture with this much name cred, although it's certainly not the magnitude of contract at the Diamondback signed with Zach Granky. There are still elements of maybe the same feelings that fans had back then when you kind of got one of the big name starting pitchers in the game. And of course, Bumgarner with the postseason pedigree and everything that he brings there, I think there's a lot to be excited about for this deal for Diamondbacks fans. I do agree with Jeff on some levels, though, although I would say I have a pretty favorable outlook on this deal overall,

I think Madison Bumgarner gives the Diamondbacks some depth in the rotation. I think that five years and $85 million sounds like a lot. of money. But he was actually worth, according to Fangraphs, a little over $25 million last season, given his performance in what was even slightly a down year. So I don't think Madison Bumgarner has to be, you know, an ace caliber starter. I think anyone who thinks he will be that is going to be a little bit disappointed by this. Madison Bumgarner has never had, arguably, as good of a season as Zach Granky had just last year. Not even in his entire career has he ever arguably. had that kind of season if you look at a fan graph's measure of war i believe granky was at around

five point four wins above replacement last year bum garner's never been north of four point nine and last year i believe he sat at three point two so bum garner is certainly more of a number two or number three starter at this point but there's something to be said for a guy who has experience and who pitches deep into games unlike probably any other starter in in this rotation i think mike Leak is the one guy in the Diamondbacks rotation outside of Bumgarner who could maybe get to 200 innings. But there's a viable question of like if you actually want Mike Leak to get to 200 innings because you know, he'll get there.

He'll work deep into games, but it's not necessarily, you know, the highest quality of pitching out there. And Bumgarner gives you probably 200 innings a season, hopefully throughout the life of most of this contract. And I think there's something to be said for giving the ball to a guy on opening day who you can count on to pitch deep into games to keep your team in the game in a way that I don't think other starters in this rotation are necessarily ready to be counted on for yet. Yeah, and I agree with that.

I think there's like an angle here where Madison Baumgartner makes a ton of sense from sort of this like sort of soft skill avenue where it's like, okay, he's a fiery competitor. everyone, you know, tease us a little bit about what a tough guy he is on the mound. You know, there's a thought that maybe he ends up being a pretty good mentor for some of these younger pitchers that are both in the rotation now and will be shortly. So there's, you know, and the experience factor that you bring in. So like, those are definitely all pluses, I think, in that category for him. There's a couple other little pieces, though, that just throw me off a bit.

think that, you know, to me, that's, you know, the timing of this, I think if we look kind of at the window where we would expect the Diamondbacks to really make their kind of next big push, we think that probably comes in the sort of 2022 through maybe 2025 area. That's a little ways off. The farm system is much improved. Their prospect core is so much better than its bid in years passed. But it's going to take some time for those guys to get there. But I think, you know, ideally we'd see maybe that being kind of the window. By 2023, 2024, I don't know what to expect for Madison Bumgarner. And frankly, I would not expect a whole lot. So in that regard, this seems maybe a little premature. And we've been down that road before, right, where we watched

Dave Stewart and company kind of pushed the chips in early to see it ultimately backfire. I don't want to say that's what's happening here. I have far more. respect for my case and then to suggest that. But the timing does strike me a little bit. One of the other things I think that's kind of interesting, though, is that we look at Madison Bumgarner and we think of him as kind of an old pitcher. He was 29 last year. That's not necessarily old. Yeah. And another free agent pitcher that's already been scooped up this winter was Zach Wheeler, who will also be 30 next season. We think of Zach Wheeler as still kind of young. I think part of why we think of Zach Wheeler is kind of young is because he hasn't pitched a lot.

He hasn't pitched all that much because he's been hurt a lot. Right. So there's just an interesting sort of framing around like the public perception of Madison Bungarner in that, you know, he's an older pitcher. When he's really not that old, it's just the amount of innings he's thrown. I mean, he's worked a lot. He's thrown over 1,800 innings to date. So I think it's ultimately going to be a matter of sort of, you know, how the stuff and how his, body holds up over time. And I think if they can get those reliable 200 plus innings, I do think there is a significant trickle-down effect to having someone like that in your rotation that you can count on for 30 plus starts a year while some of these younger guys, you know,

establish themselves. So I don't totally hate it. The timing of it definitely throws me off. And I'm not sure this is where I would have invested the money. The talking points have been around offense. And so this still strikes me, you know, as a little bit odd, but, you know, they certainly felt comfortable with it. And, you know, it will help the team. Let's, let's not forget about that. I will throw in there. Obviously, this is, it's probably too early to be talking about the Diamondbacks next playoff appearance when it's, you know, December of not even baseball season anymore. But I think Madison Bumgarner, given his playoff pedigree and just kind of the clutch factor. I know there are varying degrees of belief in like whether being clutch in the

postseason or, you know, just in big moments in baseball, generally speaking, is actually a thing. But if it were a thing, I think Madison Bumgarner is probably the first guy who would really come to mind is someone who you want in those big moments. And honestly, I would take Madison Bumgarner in a wildcard game over Zach Granky. I always kind of had a fear that even though Granky was great during the regular season. He really could help grind through, you know, a full season of baseball. And I think there certainly was so much value in having him at the top of your rotation. But we saw even with the Astros, Zach Granky had some good moments in the playoffs,

but he also had some really, really rough starts. And I think he's the kind of guy where when you really put him under a microscope in a one-game playoff, I think you can get to him a little bit. And in his time with the Diamondbacks, he was really pretty bad. in what was, of course, just a handful of playoff starts. But I really am comfortable with Bumgarner in that position. And I think if the Diamondbacks are being honest with themselves, they're probably not going to win the NL West anytime soon.

And so your gateway to making any noise in the playoffs hinges on being able to win that one-game playoff. And there's certainly something to be said for a guy like Bumgarner who has the pedigree and has been there before and is probably going to be pretty comfortable pitching in that situation. I do think there's something to that. I mean, I think what makes it hard for me is,

is like, how do you, how do you put a value on that? How do you, how do you weigh that in regard to like a guy whose velocity is declined a bit? You know, it's just,

it's a tough calculus for me. And that, that again, kind of goes into those sort of like, those softer skills. But I do think that's there. I mean, I look at a guy like Madison,

bumgarner, a playoff game. And I'm like, I don't care if he's 35 or 45 or 55 years old. I don't want to face that. Like, period. Full stop. So, so that part of it is a little bit exciting to me. And of course, a lot of things have to go right over the first 162 games to get into that one game scenario. But this team is, you know, kind of right there in the mix and should continue to be so, depending on how they round out the rest of the offseason. One thing I, you know, one thing I did want to bring up is Dan Zimborski has been working through the Zips projections and, you know, shared his projection with around Madison Bumgarner. And it's, it's not very, it's not very pretty.

I think it calls for an ERA next season around, you know, 4.3, something, you know, right around there. Steamer has a more like 4.63. So it doesn't look great. But at the same time, you know, he is coming off a season where he pitched to a 3.90 ERA. So it's a little hard to say, but he did roll out the projections for the Diamondbacks, and he's also previewed the projections for the Dodgers. And so, you know, if we assume that, like, let's just, just for the sake of math, assume that the Diamondbacks keep Robbie Ray, and we'll talk about that in a second, but Madison Bumgarner replaces Mike Leak.

The Dodgers look to have about, you know, 15 war. in their rotation, the Diamondbacks are at about 12. The bullpins are pretty even as things sit right now. But it's really on the position player side where the Dodgers have the biggest edge, where they look like they have about 29 war from their position players, and the Diamondbacks are only at about 18.

So there's still a sizable gap to be made up in terms of what happens on the position player side. But as you talk about kind of fighting for the NOS, the Dodgers are definitely still the head of the class. bum garner helps but the big gap still remains on the position player side of things yeah so let's go ahead and jump into that kind of filling that gap and what a lot of people have suggested as a result of this trade is that the diamond backs might be looking to you know sign bum garner bring in a new pitcher who makes just slightly more than what robbie ray was

projected to make an arbitration and then and then the idea is you can just flip robbie ray and go get help somewhere else. Kind of just, you know, piecing together your assets in a, in a strategic way, which does make a lot of sense. And I think there's a lot of people who are expecting that that is what the diamondbacks will do. Robbie Ray, obviously, it's an interesting situation. He's a guy who we know has an enormously high ceiling.

He has the strikeout rate of an elite pitcher without some of the other skills to kind of take him all the way there. So he's certainly an intriguing arm for other teams. I think he definitely has a decent amount of trade value. Zach Buchanan, I think, was very smart and suggesting that maybe part of the reason that the Diamondbacks did this deal was to kind of create a market for Robbie Ray just by, you know, lessening the supply while keeping the demand the same. A lot of people didn't really see the Diamondbacks as being really in need of a starting

pitcher. And there's still several teams out there that need one. And Madison Bumgarner is now off the table. And it's really just down to Hienjin, Ryu. and Dallas Kichel, who are left on the market as really viable options that you could put anywhere near the top of a rotation. So Robbie Ray, I think, is going to be an intriguing option for people. And in terms of what they would get back, I really don't know.

I think there's a lot of different routes they could take this. Jeff, what is your perspective on maybe the Diamondbacks trying to go about a trade for Robbie Ray? And maybe what would be a reason why they would want to keep him out? after all. I think if you try to trade Robbie Ray, one of the things, if the team is still going to try to make a push for a wild card spot, we would assume that they would have to fill his rotation spot in some way, shape, or form. Just subtracting Robbie Ray and going with the internal options probably isn't enough to really make, I think, what would feel like a really legitimate

push for the playoffs. So by having Bumgarner in hand, that might make Ray, you know, eminently tradable from the Diamondbacks's perspective. You know, and they do have holes in center field and right field, presuming they would prefer to keep Catele Marte at second base for the bulk in the season. However, sort of look at it like you don't necessarily have to trade Robbie Ray now. I mean, if you just add Madison Bumpgarner to the mix and you keep Robbie Ray, your rotation all of a sudden looks really, really good. And so I think that, you know,

Well, the initial thought, and I was guilty of the same thing, was that, okay, maybe they really feel comfortable in what they can get for Robbie Ray. They don't have to deal them. They could keep them until the trade deadline. And if things aren't looking good, trade them at that moment. You know, or they could keep them, you know, keep them and, you know, really try to make a push for a wild card spot. So I still think all the options are on the table here. And my Kism has been really good at not painting himself into a corner. So to me, this kind of feels like that.

I bet the ask for Robbie Ray is really high. And if they can get what they want, I'm sure they'll entertain it. But I don't think they feel like they probably have to do that move. And there's something to be said for just adding one more really good starting pitcher to your rotation. So I'm not sold that they're going to do that. I do think they're very much open to it. And I won't be surprised if he does get dealt. but I don't feel like it's something they have to do.

It's funny. I think when, if I remember right, the day that the diamond, I think it was the day of the trade deadline. Yeah, no, it definitely was. The day of the trade deadline when the diamond backs made the move to acquire Zach Gallen, and for a moment, it appeared that the diamond backs were going for it. That's what everyone was saying around baseball, like, oh, my gosh, the diamondbacks have kind of shocked the world and have decided to buy instead of sell.

And then about two hours later, they went ahead. and they traded Zach Granky and then it was like, oh, wow, okay, well, I guess they really did kind of sell when it was all set and done. So I'm a little hesitant to like analyze the rotation and the same way I did then after the gallon move and be like, oh my gosh, you know, there's so much depth here. This is one of the best rotations in the game. We really don't know what Mike Hazen has in mind for sure. I do think it will be a challenge for the Diamondbacks. As much as I love the way the rotation looks to keep Robbie Ray in the mix. I think it will be pretty tough for them to patch up all of the other holes that they have

in the diamond just with the remaining money that they have for free agency. I think our estimate for how much money they have to spend seems to be a little bit different than what most people in the public I thought. I think we had our figure around like 35 or 40 million going into the offseason. Most people have said around 30 million is what they have to spend. It's obviously that there's really no right answer to that, that really only they know. uh what how much money they really have to spend over the off season but i i think it's doubtful that you're able to patch up you know you're able to find a starting caliber center fielder or second baseman a starting caliber right fielder and you know a significantly um some some

some reliever of of significance whether it be you know a guy with closing experience maybe you get archie bradley out of that role or maybe you keep him there and just kind of uh give him somebody else who can kind of tag team with in the closer role. I think the Diamondbacks could really use all three of those needs. They really could use to fill all of them. And I'm not sure if the remaining money that they have, if they keep Robbie Ray, is going to be enough to patch all of those needs. Yeah, I'm with you there.

It's going to, what will happen, and we've heard them talk about how offense is really a priority for them. by spending what they've spent on Madison Bumgarner and without subtracting Roby raised salary for next season, which should sit somewhere in the $10 million range, you know, they're going to have to really shop on a budget for that center field or second base option and a right field option while hoping to secure, you know, a little bit more relief help. So I think it does, it does really make things a little bit more difficult.

you know, there's not a ton out there in the right field market for free agents that look like real, like strong impact bats. And center field, I mean, I think Starling Marte is kind of the guy out there who can provide that. But I don't know that Arizona is going to want to deal the types of prospects required to get a player like that back. So I think it's probably going to be a little bit more budget shopping. they have continued to have dialogue with, is it Shogo Akiyama? Did I say his name? Yep, I believe so. I believe so.

Okay, I was worried about that one. Yeah, there's been some talks there. I don't think he's going to be a really expensive option. I think they can get him for something pretty comfortable, but, you know, what do you do in right field? I mean, talks are heating up between Avicale Garcia and I want to say the Brewers. So that's a right field option. It looks like it might be about to come off the table. that leaves what maybe like a coal calhoun type.

I'm just not sure what else they really have that they can do in right field that's going to provide the type of impact that they want while keeping them under budget. And like you said, the bullpen does still need a little help. We're going to jump into some more specifics on where the diamondbacks could look to follow us in just a moment. But real quick, we've got a couple other things just to hit on quickly that the diamondbacks have done since we last spoke with you here on the Rattle podcast.

A couple of low-key but interesting moves the Diamondbacks made. They signed a contract to Stephen Vote, a catcher who will now be paired up with Madison Bumgarner, of course. So the Diamondbacks brought in Stephen Vote to presumably fill their role as backup catcher. There's a really interesting splits situation going on between Carson Kelly and Stephen vote if you look at their numbers. Stephen vote against Wrighties last year. 271 batting average 330 on base, 505 slugging percentage.

Carson Kelly versus lefties last year. 356 batting average, 462 on base, 667 slugging percentage. Those are some pretty darn good numbers. And the Diamondbacks who have really done without a whole lot of offense from the capture position for years now, I think with that pairing, you really could. you really could look to your catching position to get some pretty good contributions offensively. Diamondbacks also made the move to sign Junior Guerra, who came over. He was with the Milwaukee Brewers last year, 34-year-old right-handed relief pitcher.

Velo runs right around 95 miles an hour, so he's still, you know, throwing fairly hard last season with the Brewers. He was 9 and 5 with a 355 ERA over 72 appearance. Jeff, what is, what's your initial take on on these two, more low-key, but kind of Mike Hazen-esque-type moves that the Diamondbacks decided to go out and make? I really like the vote, the vote move. I think he brings, kind of like Madison Bumgarner, I think he's going to bring, you know, sort of that veteran leadership to a club that does have some younger players on, especially a younger player like Carson Kelly. It's not like Carson Kelly didn't get to learn a bit behind God to Gamble. but having that leadership behind the plate is really important.

So I like that move. I think it's a nice pairing. I think the one thing that does throw me off just a bit is that they're still going to have to give Carson Kelly at bats against right-handers. If you let vote take the heavy side of that platoon and essentially face the vast majority of righties and just let Kelly eat against lefties, that probably only lets Kelly play two or three times a week. and gives vote the majority of the playing time. Right. So as they want to develop a younger catcher, he's still going to need to get those reps. And I'm sure that's something that they can do.

So I'm not terribly concerned about that. But I do like the point that you made. If you kind of put those two together, catcher is no longer a black hole. And that's really, really helpful in an national league lineup especially. Yeah. The Junior Aguera move, you know, I see him as kind of a, you know, a bit of a workhorse type. you know, he spent quite a bit of time as a starter has now moved to relief, you know, exclusively last season. He, you know, he's a good, you know, sort of middle relief option.

I don't think he's, I don't think he's going to threaten to take anyone's job as the closer. And I'm not even sure he's your best set up option, considering what's still available on the free agent market. But I do think that he provides some pretty valuable depth there. So, you know, you look for guys whose job he may, you know, sort of threaten might be, You know, maybe a Yon Lopez type or a Kevin Ginkle type or some of the guys that were just, you know, kind of those, you know, sixth, seventh inning arms, he may threaten the job security of those guys a little bit. So solid depth move. And I believe he's still under team control for a couple more seasons beyond this year. The brewers decided to non-tendering and made him a free agent.

So if they like what they see, you know, they can bring him back and have, you know, exclusive control. And to me, that's really valuable. I mean, that's the kind of move, like, that's a Mike Hayes move right there where you buy on a guy where it's a short investment with plenty of, you know, plenty of room to pay off greater than the investment where you can also cut bait if you just don't like it. So I like the two moves. They're low-key moves, like you said, but they're both positive additions. Yeah, I think when it comes to Junior Guerra, it more speaks to the Diamondbacks lack of bullpen depth than any. else. But I'm not convinced that Junior Aguera is not the Diamondback's best right-handed reliever outside of potentially Archie Bradley. I mean, if you put Archie Bradley in the closer role and you

staple him to the ninth inning, you're going to need right-handed pitchers to get big outs in the late innings of a baseball game. And I'm not sure if the Diamondbacks really have anyone who presents a clearly better alternative to putting Gwara in that kind of role. I know you mentioned Kevin Ginkle, who certainly showed flares of being pretty good down the stretch last season. There's some other interesting arms like Yohan Lopez, who you also mentioned. But both of those guys are pretty young and not horribly seasoned at this point. I think Junior Gwara, unfortunately, not because he's phenomenal, but because the diamond backs just don't have a whole lot of good right-handed options in the bullpen.

I think he's a pretty good fit for them. and as you mentioned at the at the price point you know two and a half million dollars two point five five i think is is the exact figure from my standpoint the bullpen in in modern day baseball is just not really worth spending the bank on unless you know you're getting you know maybe a guy who's clearly the top option in the entire game or something along those lines uh you know drew pomerans who just signed for 34 million dollars those kinds of contracts there There's, you know, certainly a lot of upside there, but there's a lot of risk in that as well. And I think in general, Mike Hazen has been smart to spend little in the bullpen.

And the diamond backs have surprisingly churned some pretty decent bullpens over the last few years. Yeah, I agree. I think it's a pretty solid move. And I mean, you look at kind of what the diamond backs are profiling. They like the, you know, they like the four-scene fastball paired with the curveball. Anguera started using his curveball more than ever last year. It was a pitch he really basically didn't even throw until 2018, but he's up the usage of it pretty significantly.

And then he also has a splitter that can be pretty nasty at times. So I wouldn't be surprised to see him, you know, use his foreseem or even more and perhaps ditch the sinker or, you know, maybe he has, you know, one of the rare sort of more effective sinkers in the game. But I think he fits the mold for them. And I'm with you. I also think that he, I mean, sitting about 95, he's one of the, you know, harder throwing bullpen options for Arizona at the moment. So, yeah, solid move.

I think there's real, real upside there. I don't know that he's going to be the closer, but I also feel like he's probably going to end up being one of the more reliable arms that they have, you know, heading into the season because, I mean, just running out like the two that I mentioned, Kevin Ginkle and Yel-Mopez, I mean, they had their moments last season. but they're also like wildly unproven. Yeah. And while Ginko looks maybe a little more solid, Lopez throws a little harder, some of the peripherals weren't, you know, super strong. So I love the move in the sense that it allows them

to kind of bolster things on the cheap. And that's probably, you know, for this team, you know, they should be spending their money elsewhere, like you said, not necessarily dumping, you know, $20 million into the bullpen. I want to jump right into, like, more specifics. We kind of alluded briefly to, to who the diamondbacks might go after to fill some of these holes. But let's talk some more specific names.

Colton Walker tweeted out a question to me, and he said, who's the most likely Diamondbacks outfield target? I think he did a good job of listing pretty much all of the names that have come up so far. Shogo Akiyama, Mitch Hanigur, Starling Marte, Cole Calhoun, Kevin Pilar. We've got Marcelo Zuna, Corey Dickerson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Nick Castellanos, as well as Yassiel Puege. Jeff, those are some, those, that's a pretty good list of names. Are there any other names that you think we should throw into the mix that come to mind for you? I think that's probably, probably the bulk of it right there, especially when you consider some of the guys that have

already signed. Right. You know, including Adam Jones, who I wish, I wish, well, playing overseas. Yeah. But yeah, that's, that's probably it. And I mean, Castellanos was a guy that it sounded like there was some interest in. I was maybe a little more lukewarm. I was maybe a little more lukewarm there. I like the bat, but defensively, I just don't know that he probably, you know, fits what Arizona is looking for. You know, there's a case to be made that he could play right field for a season and then slide over to left and if they let David Peralta go. So there's a case to be made there, but I don't know that he's really, you know, he's probably definitely no longer in the budget. So that that does make things a little tough. I don't know that Seattle

really wants to trade Mitch Hanager. They could, and it was interesting. Zach Buchanan had an interview with Mike Hazen, where he kind of seemed to lead on that maybe he misses Mitch Hanigar in a way. Yeah, I saw that. Putting it politely. So, you know, I'm sure there's interest there, but I think there's probably a lot of teams with interest in Mitch Hanigur.

And I don't know what Seattle's asked really would be. You know, Corey Dickerson's a name that really interests me. He probably can't play right field. He probably has to play left, and that makes David Peral to go back to right field, where he's probably not best served. But man, Cory Dickerson can hit when he's healthy. So he's interesting, and I think he'll be pretty cheap. Marcel Azuna's clearly outside of the budget.

And then we sort of get into some of these, you know, fringier pieces. The Cole Calhouns that, you know, maybe you're hoping for a little bounce back there. I don't know that, you know, we kind of joked, but I don't know that I would ever see Yassie L. Puig and Madison Bumgarner on the same team at the same time. That would be fascinating. Yeah, they could definitely sell the rights to reality television show for that. So, yeah, I'm not sure exactly what happens there. You know, and did the Dodgers have any interest in moving a guy like Jock Peterson or something like that? So I'm not seeing a ton of really clear fits.

and I think that's a little tough. I do like Shogo Akiyama. I think that's maybe the most likely thing to probably happen. Yeah. So that's probably where I'm casting my lot right now and then just kind of, you know, waiting to see where the chips fall in terms of right field. I honestly think that's probably going to be the last hold that gets plugged up.

Yeah, I think in terms of cost, it certainly seems like Shogo Akiyama out of all of those guys is probably going to cost the least. I think I've heard rumors. He's looking for probably, two years in the range of around 8 to 11 million. Right. So that certainly feels like something the diamondbacks could get done.

That's certainly within their budget and would maybe give them some room to go get a relief pitcher, which I want to pivot to now. In terms of relievers, there's still some options out there. Maybe a Steve C-shek type would appeal to the diamondbacks. Jeff, do you think the, do you think the diamondbacks have it in their plans to go get you know a Steve Seashek type are they maybe going to try to stick on the lower end of the market with maybe another junior Guerra type of guy who's you know maybe slightly less proven but but still certainly a competent guy from my standpoint I would love to see the diamondbacks invest more

in their bullpen because I think there just are just so many questions out there and you really can never have too many relievers as Mike Hazen has said recently and I am I am personally hoping that they go out and they actually really consider making a move like that. Yeah, I do think there's, I do think there's clearly a need. And I think it's going to be more feasible for them to try to bolster the like seventh and eighth innings than it is going to be for them to still go out and try to find like a closer on the trade market. So to me, it's guys like Cich, maybe a Pedro Strope or a Sam Dyson type that they look

for on, you know, maybe a. a two-year contract that has an annual average value of, you know, four, five, six million dollars, you know, and like maybe a two-year deal. Another guy I like a lot is Craig Stamon who last pitch for San Diego, sinker-slider guy who's just a veteran who shouldn't cost a lot, but provides a bunch of reliable innings. So that's kind of where I see them going. If they're not able to do that, then I think you probably look maybe more at the trade market.

But as we've seen, I think some teams are pretty reticent to make these relief pitcher trades in the offseason. I just, they probably feel like the value is higher, you know, right there at the trade deadline. And they can probably, you know, maximize the return actually by waiting as opposed to dealing early. Or at least play their handout, you know, a little further, you know, for some of these teams that also may be on the bubble. I mean, teams like the Angels or the Rangers have options of guys that they could deal. like a Hansel Robles or a Jose LeClerc or guys like that. But, you know, the Angels and the Rangers should probably be kind of in the thick of the American League wildcard race. So I don't know that in this winter has been interesting in the sense that so many big deals have been signed already.

I'm not totally sure who's selling right now. And so we might have to take a step back and kind of, you know, reimagine who's even looking to deal guys. but, you know, sort of the Seashacks, Pedro Stroves, Sam Dyson, Hector Rondone, Craig Stamen, maybe a Will Harris or a Will Smith. Sorry, Will Smith already signed. Will Harris, those might be guys that they could really think about, you know, going after on a relatively light commitment just to sort of shore up like, you know, the seventh and maybe even the eighth innings.

I think from my standpoint when you think of what the Diamondbacks have done so far and the needs that they still have. We've talked about the three needs. There's something in center field or second base, something in right field, maybe another reliever, as well as I think if you can, you'd like to keep Robbie Ray.

And so you've really got four things there that you're trying to do, and I have a feeling that only three out of those four is possible. And so I'm in the process of trying to figure out, like out of those four things, which one would you sacrifice? Would you, would you, you know, fill all three needs and have to deal Ray in the process? Maybe Ray gets you the right fielder and then you use free agency to get your center fielder and your relief pitcher. I think that's one viable option.

Or you could opt to keep Robbie Ray and then maybe sacrifice one out of those three needs because without the trade capital of Robbie Ray, it's going to be tough to get all three of those. just through free agency alone. Jeff, out of the four, do you see, you know, so maybe one that you would pick? Yeah, I mean, I think the center field need has to get filled. Man, I love Tim LaCastro, and I'd love to see how many times he could get hit by a pitch

if he played, like, all season long. But I really think that they have to fill the center field hole, and they definitely have to fill the right field hole. The right field hole, to me, is really the spot where they have to do something. They really have no viable major league. I like there's real, I mean, Josh Rojas, I guess, but you're probably not ready to put him in that role. No, and I mean, you know, Centerfield, you could go like super cheap and try to bring back Gerard Dyson or something if you really wanted to.

But I think I think center field and right field are must for me. At this juncture, I mean, if the team's intention is really to push, really to push for a wild card spot, I probably keep Robbie Ray and I hope that by having enough competent stuff, I can sort of shelter my bullpen a bit. And I reassess it at the trade deadline. I think it's the easiest, I think it's the easiest need to fill in season. So I think that's the thing that I would let go. Do you feel similarly or do you have a different take?

No, I think that makes a lot of sense. And that's one benefit of keeping Robbie Ray and signing Bumgarner is that the Diamondbacks have pushed some pretty viable rotation options. out of their rotation. Like as of right now, like, you're going to need to, you're going to need to nix someone. And I'm guessing right now the most likely options would be Merrill Kelly or Mike Leak in the case if there's, if there's no injury situation, if anyone can stay healthy. There's not enough room for everyone right now.

And that doesn't even include, you know, John DuPontier, who knows, maybe he's able to come right into spring and, you know, put together a good spring training. I mean, he was at one time not long ago. You know, a lot of people thought he was going to be a number three or four starter pretty soon here. I think we can't forget about him, Alex Young, last year, as much as we might play skeptic to whether he can actually maintain the kind of numbers that he put up.

He was really good last year as a starter for almost half the season. And I don't think you're just going to, you know, shovel him into AAA and just, you know, call him up in September and call it good. I think there's definitely a role to be had there. Taylor Clark, Taylor Wydener. The Diamondbacks have some depth, and I think you're right that maybe you just kind of do what the Diamondbacks have a tendency to do every spring, just let everyone come in and prove themselves. And I have a feeling that even though it might not be the best bullpen in the game or really anywhere close by any stretch of the imagination, the Diamondbacks could probably assemble a decent bullpen just with some of those options who maybe didn't make it as a starter,

but can still be useful at the major league level. Right. I mean, De Plontea is a reliever, you know, it's maybe not ultimately what you want, but after the season he had, if you could keep him healthy in a relief role where he's capable of pitching more than an inning at a time, it would be pretty valuable.

I mean, you kind of make him Robbie Ray's piggyback, right? Because I do realize that I said, shelter your bullpen and employ Robbie Ray at the same time. So those things don't always line up when he throws his five innings and leaves. So, yeah, I do see, like, it's probably easier to initially fill those bullpen holes internally, you know, using Alice Young as another lefty. We have to remember that every team in baseball gets that 26th slot now. True.

And, you know, he's not just a lefty-on-lefty guy per se, because they've also instituted the three-batter minimum. It looks like it'll take place next year. So, you know, being able to get some righties out as a lefty would be important. Just like for DePontier, you know, being a righty able to get some lefties out would be important. So they could certainly go that route. And if I had to pick something to leave on the table, that'd probably be it, you know, all things considered. You did mention, you know, having a surplus of starters at the moment, I do think that there's a pretty good chance that either Merrill Kelly or Mike Lee get traded. It sounds like it'd actually be quite a bit easier to trade Merrill Kelly with Mike Lee's no trade clause in effect.

So, you know, maybe he's the guy that goes. But I really think that's a move that probably happens. If it were me, you know, I'd probably push it into spring training and make sure that through, you know, the early days of spring training and into March, like everybody is healthy. And then I feel comfortable dealing. I probably wouldn't make that move right now. Just try to try to buy a little time with that. But I do see that as a viable option. one name that of course we did not mention in this conversation is Taiwan Walker who was pretty

surprisingly non-tendered certainly something I didn't really see coming and also the diamondbacks decided to tender a contract to Jake Lamb I think Jeff when you and I had talked earlier I think we had those flipped around we would have probably stuck with with Taiwan Walker coming back maybe filling some innings as a starter but at the very least being a reliever and and letting Jake Lamb walk after what was a pretty rough injury-riddled season. Why do you think the Diamondbacks flipped this around? I don't think you and I have actually talked about this. I'm curious.

Yeah, I think in the case of Tybalt Walker, unfortunately, they had all the medicals on his rehab and his status, and I feel like they probably weren't comfortable from a health perspective with where he was. So I think that explains why he was let go. And I also think it explains why he hasn't been like a, immediately scooped up. I haven't seen any rumors regarding his name, and I would guess that's why. He's not probably as healthy as, you know, we might presume. In the case of Jake Lamb, he does still feel like an asset that they don't really need. And so in keeping him, I think my

thought process was that they probably felt comfortable. There was enough of a trade market that they could still move him. So I'm going to stick with that. and I'm not sure that he makes it to opening day as a diamondback. I still think there's enough out there that maybe he is part of a package for something else. And I could definitely see that going down. You know, a team that's looking for a third baseman but isn't probably looking to try to win the World Series next year. You know, maybe they can shuttle off a reliever to Arizona in exchange for Jake Lamb and maybe a lesser prospect or something of that nature. So he's maybe a buy low option for another organization.

And the Diamondbacks might feel comfortable enough with his stock that they were willing to retain him. But for Walker, I think it's injury related. We got a question from at Andrew AJT. I think we addressed his second one about Madison Bumgarner's future. But he asked an interesting one, is this a sign talking about the Bumgarner deal, that they are going for it this year? or is it a step towards 2021 slash 2022? I think this is interesting because like you talked about at the very beginning of the show,

there's kind of a timeline question here that is a little bit unclear. You know, are the Diamondbacks looking to really push all their chips in right now? Are they still kind of waiting for maybe a couple years down the road when, you know, Dalton Farshow, Alec Thomas, these kinds of names maybe are getting their first shots in the big leagues? what do you think the diamond backs are thinking in terms of timeline right now? You know, I'd have to skew towards the front end of his contract being the window that they are most interested in trying to capitalize on because he's not going to get better. So to me, I read it as like 2020, 2021, you know, 2020, like they're serious. Right.

Otherwise, you make this move next winner. Right. Or even the winner after that. But they made it now. And so that tells me that they're definitely not playing around. I mean, the Diamondbacks with the capital that they have to spend do not make an investment like this unless they're serious. So I would say, you know, not going for it as in how Dave Stewart or Tonner Larissa might define it. But certainly serious about contending.

We're going to end with this. Jeff, what do you think is Tim asks, is there any money left? he also asked about some specific names that we've mentioned in the show. In terms of financials, I know we've heard some differing figures, but I'm curious what you think, what do you think is like a rough estimate of what the Diamondbacks realistically are going to spend for the rest of this offseason is? It's a great question. I have not done the math, and I probably need to.

But do you think about, you know, dealing with Robbie Ray obviously opens up probably about $10 million. That's true. dealing Jake Lamb opens up about five. So the target fluctuates depending on what comes next. If they did nothing at all, and let's just say they rolled into the season with both those guys in hand, it would seem to me like they probably still have something in the neighborhood of $10, $12 million left to spend.

You know, maybe stretching kind of towards 15 might be about the max. But I'd probably more comfortably put it, you know, in the $10 or $12 million range, that probably means you can get, you know, a center fielder and, you know, a lesser right fielder, you know, combined for maybe about $12 million bucks. If you keep Robbie Ray, if you deal Robbie Ray, then all of a sudden you have certainly more to play with. However, I don't know that, you know, the assets are really out there to warrant spending a whole lot more than that. So it's very intriguing. I think there's a lot left to happen. We are just at the beginning of this thing. And we need to see a couple other moves

before we can really fully define it. But as it stands now, I'd say probably somewhere in the $10 to $15 million range of spending left. Well, ladies and gentlemen, as Jeff said, things really are just getting started here this offseason for the Diamondbacks. Obviously, this bum garner move. We certainly suspect that Mike Hazen has a few other tricks up his sleeve for the rest of the offseason. So we are certainly excited. to track it all with you and hopefully be back here on the podcast sometime again soon. Thank you so much for listening. I know we missed some of your questions.

We're going to do our best to try to comment on those just on Twitter. Hopefully we hit as much as we could here in this episode in the time that we had. But we certainly thank you so much for listening as always. If you have not already, be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at the RattleAZ. You can find our website at www. the rattle.net. And I believe we announced this in our last episode. It is still happening, though.

We have our full off-season plan for the Diamondbacks from the very beginning. We're not even going to play with any of the moves that they've made. We're going to put ourselves in the GM seats and kind of play the game of what we would do over the course of this off-season from the very beginning. So that'll be coming at therattle. Dot net here pretty soon. So be sure to look out for that. Once again, we really appreciate you listening.

that's all that we have here for episode 16 and we will see you once again soon here to talk more about the Arizona Diamondbacks.