PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Ep. 17: How good are the D-backs with Starling Marte?

Episode Date: January 29, 2020

We discuss the D-backs' acquisition of OF Starling Marte, and look big picture at what the D-backs have done this offseason and how their playoff chances shape up for 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to episode 17 of the Rattle Podcast. As always, my name is Jesse Friedman alongside Jeff Weiser, my co-hosts here on the Rattle podcast. And Jeff, a trade has gone down. We wondered a few weeks ago if the Diamondbacks had anything left in store after the Bumgarner move, the Cole Calhoun move. It seemed like things were maybe fading to an end as the Diamondbacks off-season wore on. But they have struck once again the latest news.

is that the Diamondbacks have acquired outfielder Starling Marte and $1.5 million in cash from the Pittsburgh Pirates. In exchange for two prospects, Leover Puguerro, who's a shortstop with the Diamondbacks low A system right now, as well as Brennan Malone, who's also a right-handed pitcher in the lower Single A division of the Diamondbacks farm system. The Diamondbacks also sent over $250,000 in international signing bonus pool money in the deal. Jeff, this is our big news, probably Madison Bumgarner and this trade right here. Those are the highlights of the off season. Now that the Diamondbacks seem to have spent all the money they had available, I think it's very possible.

This is their team going into 2020. Jeff, what do you think of this trade and what are the Diamondbacks? What's their outlook going into this season after this move? Yeah, I mean, this one definitely was kind of on, I think, our internal radar and just kind of seemed like a bit, you know, from a distance. It's all winter long, and it just, you know, maybe felt like it was the one thing that looked good on paper, but just wasn't going to happen. And then the news broke yesterday. So it's definitely a bold move.

You know, the two guys that the Diamondbacks gave up in Puguerro and Malone are both, you know, high upside teenagers. Puguerro has been comp to, you know, kind of the Gene Segura type. I did get to see him play in Hillsboro a little bit last year. A guy that plays hard, not physically imposing, but stronger than he is big. And certainly looks like he's going to stick up the middle. Really impressive young kid who's gained a lot of traction. And then Malone obviously was the first rounder. I think he was the 33rd overall pick here last June.

a more physically mature type of pitcher for a high school guy. He's not probably as projectable as you would think for most high school kids. But that means he also currently throws hard and his stuff is pretty good. So for really where he's at on the development spectrum. So, you know, how do I feel about it? You know, honestly, it's a lot to give up. but this is a chance to get a guy and plug what was really kind of a major hole on the big league roster. Sure, Kattel Marte could have patrolled Center Field for another year.

But they were able to mitigate any of the injury issues or just kind of the taxing of the body of playing center field and move him back to second by getting Starling Marte. I guarantee I'm going to call them by the wrong name at some point. here. We'll see if that happens. But, man, I'm pumped. I really am pumped. This seems like something that should work. And my case has made it happen, man. So I'm pretty impressed and I'm very happy about it. Looking at what the Diamondbacks got in Starling Marte, this is a guy who, I actually remember we had this conversation when we were crafting our offseason plan of, you know, is Starling Marte a good trade candidate? It was kind of an obvious fit. Like you mentioned, the Diamondbacks seem to have some prospects. The pirates obviously looking to rebuild. They had Starling Marte,

who's under control for the next two seasons. It really seemed like a match, and the trade finally does go down. Starling Marte last season, 23 home runs, 82 RBIs, 25 stolen bases. I believe he is one of two major leaguers, if I remember correctly, who was stolen 20 or more bases over the last seven consecutive seasons. So Starling Marte is probably one of the better base runners in the game, which certainly fits into the Diamondback scheme. They've done a lot of base running over these last several seasons under Toro Lavello and company. But yeah, he's a guy who's probably not a superstar. He's not a true middle of the lineup type of hitter.

But what I love about this trade is I think it gives the Diamondbacks a viable leadoff hitter for the first time in maybe quite a while. Last season we saw them go, Cattel Marte in that leadoff spot. And you really wanted to have Cotel Marte up with maybe more guys on base, even though obviously, you know, wherever Cattel Marte hits, he's going to be good. But I think putting Starling Marte, a guy who doesn't walk a whole lot, but he is really good on the base paths. Last season, he had a three wins above replacement year, according to Fangraphs,

119 weighted runs created plus. I think all across the board, Starling Marte is just a good solid player. He has a good reputation defensively. And what this does, Jeff, looking at the Diamondbacks lineup as a whole now, you can make the claim that, you know, maybe Ketel Marte is the only true superstar on this roster. I think that's probably a fair point. But you look now at every position. You've got David Peralta is your everyday left fielder. You've got Starling Marte in center.

You've got Cole Calhoun in right field. The infield, you've got Eduardo Escobar at third. Ahmed at short. Ketel now at second base, Christian Walker over at first. Carson Kelly will presumably get most of the playing time behind the plate. The Diamondbacks may only have one superstar on this team, but they also really don't have any weaknesses. And that's something we have not been able to say about this team for a long time.

It's felt like the Diamondbacks really have ridden that middle of the lineup for the last several years. And once you got to the bottom, you didn't really know what you were going to get. That is not the case with this 2020 Diamondbacks club. No, and one last point, Madison, Bumpgarner can hit a little bit too. So, yeah, no, I feel you. It's a nice spot to be in. You know, and I was thinking about this the other day, and it's maybe something I need to take some time and dig into.

But, you know, the value is really going to come out of this lineup in the aggregate, being able to keep guys healthy, mix and match a little bit. they do have more flexibility now than they probably ever had, at least in recent memory. So if a guy or two do go down with injuries at some point, which inevitably will happen, they seem to be a little bit better position to deal with that than they have been in seasons past. So I think when you kind of put it all together, it's a team that's not going to give away a lot of the bats. But at the same time, they don't have a Mike Trout or Cody Bellinger. type of guy that that's just going to like carry the offense at times unless we think that

Catele Marte, you know, is going to really kind of repeat the performance that he put together last year. So I think that's kind of up for debate. Not to knock him, but just that that obviously he did something that was so outside the norm for his production, that it's something that we do have to think about. But still, your point is well taken. I mean, they're just no holes. I mean, I think we've talked about it before, but there were times when seven, eight, and nine were just, you know, black holes in the lineup. It was like, well, you know, there's nothing that's going to happen here. Not the case anymore. So definitely going to be exciting. And just to kind of see how that depth really, I think, piles up. I think it'll be

really valuable night after night in some ways, but I think it'll be even more valuable like over 162 games. One last note I want to bring in on the Starling Marte trade is just the fact that the diamondbacks, I think although you, you know, you certainly paid definitely a fair price, I think some people came out and said this was, you know, highway robbery, this was a complete steel. Looking more at the value, I think Paguerro and Malone have high enough ceilings that you probably wouldn't call this this deal a steel. I think this is pretty even on both sides.

But the diamondbacks, one luxury that they have, now that this farm system is, is genuinely good. It's probably a top five system in all of baseball at this point. The diamondbacks have a lot of right-handed pitchers in this system now that they haven't had in the past. And they have a lot of short stops, namely Geraldo Perdomo, I think first and foremost, who have exciting futures as well. And this is a luxury the diamond backs haven't had before. You can go and get a Starling Marte without, you know, seriously mortgaging the future. The diamondbacks still have pitchers coming up through their system who are exciting they still have a very promising young shortstop in Geraldo Perdomo who could be ready within the next couple of seasons.

You know, it's a hit, but it's a hit in a completely different way now that the Diamondbacks have this kind of depth. Yeah, it really is. I mean, a move like this in the past would have, you know, frankly, dealt a pretty sizable blow to the team's farm system. But that's just not the case now. I mean, there's, like you mentioned, there's so much more depth there. you have bar show you have the three youngsters in the outfield in christian robinson corbin carroll and alec thomas you know there's just a whole bunch of guys now that they can um look to move some of the uh maybe the back the back of the top ten sort of the maybe six through 12 six through 15 type prospects um

and there's enough depth there that those prospects are actually desirable to other teams so um it is a luxury the ownership seems to be kind of holding the line on what payroll is going to be. And in my case, and his jump through some hoops and taking some bum garner with him, you know, to kind of make it all work. But the one thing they did have to spend still was some prospect currency. And they show that they, you know,

weren't gun-shy to do it if they thought that they could, you know, make the major league team better. And, you know, ultimately, you know, that's what they'll be judged on. and that's really the goal, right, is to win games at the major league level and make that push for the playoffs. Let's go ahead and look at what the Diamondbacks have done this offseason. We're going to go unit by unit here and just talk about how much of the Diamondbacks improved, if at all, in each of the different phases of the game. Let's go ahead and start right what we're talking right now. Let's start with this position player group.

Jeff, I'll go ahead and start out. I'll pass it over to you in a moment. I think looking one through nine at this lineup, as I've talked, about there are really no weaknesses i think there's a lot of exciting depth i think uh at the catching position i think stephen vote was a smart move i think there's a really valuable platoon that could be had there and i think it really every position you you kind of have the feeling that if the guy in that starting lineup uh on most days was to get hurt i think there's enough depth uh to come through and replace him without a serious drop off in production and i think that's a huge

luxury that the diamond backs have, especially with all of the players that they have who are versatile. Now, you've got Vargas off of the bench. You've got Cotell Marte. Of course, you've got Eduardo Escobar who can bounce around a little bit. Starling Marte, we heard Tori Lavello say that he'll probably have some time in the outfield corners as well as in center field. There's definitely a lot of a lot of room from moving pieces in this position player core. I would venture to say that might be the Diamondback's biggest strength right now, second only to potentially their starting rotation. Yeah. And one of the other things that I think is easy to maybe overlook just a little bit, but none of the

position players are, you know, offensively, you know, it obviously looks quite solid, but none of them defensively are like playing out of position. They haven't had to really sacrifice their identity as a strong defending team in order to get these bats in the lineup. So I think that that, you know, it's kind of a, it's kind of a luxury that they have. You know, no one's really like a black hole defensively. They're not, you know, trying to, you know, play a, you know, defunct first basement at, you know, a second base or, you know, running out someone who should be DHing in left field. So I think that, I think that certainly helps.

Yeah, on the whole, I would say this unit definitely has improved. Again, I don't think it's, you know, it might not show up every single day. It's not going to always look like a massive improvement. But overall, I really do think that over time it's going to add up and turn out to be, you know, a big step in the right direction. Talking about the bench now, it seems like the diamond backs, as far as their bench goes, there's not a whole lot of change. It probably isn't a huge talking point. We'll just touch on it briefly. here the biggest source of intrigue with the bench is probably just that Jake Lamb is still here

and he was not among the names that we mentioned in that starting lineup. So it'll be really interesting to see how the Diamondbacks use Jake Lamb. I'm assuming this will give them the opportunity to once and for all maybe just acknowledge that Jake Lamb is truly a, you know, a Ritey's only type of hitter. And that's just kind of who he is. And I think it's time to maybe just embrace that rather than throwing him up there against lefties on a semi-regular basis. So Jake Lamb poses some intrigue.

Tim LeCastro, it'll be interesting. It'll be fun to have him back, see how many times he can get hit by pitches in 2020. I think is an intriguing piece. Plays a solid defense, at least on several different positions. Josh Rojas will certainly be back with an opportunity to make the club as well. Jeff, do you see anything else interesting going on on the bench side of things? You know, the only thing I think that they could probably still use is maybe some right-handed pop, you know, coming off the bench.

That's the only thing that I kind of see that's missing. And so I expect them to probably kick the tires a little bit on some of the older veterans that might still be kind of lingering around in free agency, guys that they can probably bring in on sort of, you know, on a minor league deal with an invite to camp, see how they do and see if one of those guys maybe takes a bench spot. That's about the only thing I can really see that's missing. LeCastro can play all over the outfield and for what he is, man, he is a fun guy to watch. And I've always been an Ildomaro Vargas Homer, so I will stick with that. For nothing else, just the glove work.

But yeah, I think Lamb probably now at this stage with this Ross, ahead of him and given his health and his track record. Probably right now, you know, belongs on the bench and see some time at first base, see some time at third. You know, kind of bounce around in that capacity. So that's probably where it is. If there's anything left to add, it's probably a low-key, maybe right-handed bench bat that you're looking at more from an offensive perspective than defensively. Let's move on to the bullpen here.

This is maybe the biggest source of concern from my side. standpoint for the Diamondbacks moving into 2020. We were looking at some of the Diamondbacks Bullpen stats from last season off the year before we started recording the show. And it was interesting to find the Diamondbacks were really very middle of the road in just about every category as far as their bullpen was concerned this last season. And theoretically, this bullpen, I think, has certainly gotten better. I really, I think it'd be hard to make the case that they've gotten any worse. So theoretically, you know, if you go from middle of the road, you make a couple of improvements. Maybe this bullpen could be top 12,

top 13 next season if things been their way. But Jeff, I do have to wonder, it seems like there's still some sources of concern here. I wish the Diamondbacks had gone out and gotten another viable late inning option. I still think you're counting on Archie Bradley and that closed your role pretty much all the way at this point. And I also wonder if what the Diamondbacks would do in the event that Andrew Chafin ever got hurt. There's really no backup whatsoever in terms of left-handed relievers go. Jeff, what's your take on this bullpen? Yeah, I think you're right on.

I mean, I think they've made a small improvement. And to carry on, you know, I think that conversation that we were having was just a little bit, you know, recognizing that sort of the middle of the pack, the cluster is pretty tight. But when you look to the top of the leaderboard, some of those bullpins, you know, at the top of the league are two, two and a half, three times more valuable, more productive, if you will, than those sort of middle of the road bullpins. So, I mean, being in the middle of the road, I mean, it's not a total weakness, but it's not really a strength. But when you look at the ground, you're giving up on those teams that really have those dominant bullpins, the gap is pretty big.

So it is still a concern. that said, it is the easiest thing for them to address in season. So they can look for a move come July or maybe sooner. Knock on wood that Andrew Chafin does not ever get hurt. Because you're right. There's really not much in the way of depth at AAA that's going to be helpful in that capacity. So I'm with you. I would have liked to have seen a little more of an investment.

here. However, after watching them jump through the hoops, you know, shift money around on Madison Bumgarner, you know, need to make sure they get back $1.5 million in the Starling Marte trade to help, you know, presumably pay down what they owe him in 2020 and having to watch like Matt Andresco, because you're looking to shave a little cash. I don't think the money was necessarily there to spend, and I think they've spent it. You know, I prefer Starling Marte at this point, probably. But I do think there's room to improve here. And one of the places that I kind of keep going is, you know, there really is the surplus

of starting pitching. I know we haven't talked about the rotation yet. But there are some guys there who have, you know, that will likely start the year in the upper minors but are on the 40-man roster, the Alex Youngs, the de Plantees, the Taylor Clarks, et cetera. do one of those guys maybe run with a bullpen roll? Does a bullpen roll seem to fit them well? That's kind of what I'm, you know, maybe they can find some sort of internal bump

by, you know, dipping into that starting pitching depth and shifting it to the bullpen. Let's go ahead and jump into the starting rotation as you alluded to. There's a lot of names at play here. Probably six right now that I think are probably at the forefront of our minds. those being Zach Gallin, Luke Weaver, you've got Robbie Ray, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Leek, and Merrill Kelly. I think those are probably the six that are most likely

to make the starting rotation as of this moment. Here, this is an interesting one for the Diamondbacks from the standpoint of this offseason. I don't think people were expecting them to go after a Madison Bumgarner type. But things worked out. And the Diamondbacks were able to get him to take $6 million for 2020 to enable them to go out and still improve their team. And it looks like that money wound up bringing Starling Marte over to the Diamondbacks in return.

But this is an interesting, a very interesting group and an intriguing group. I think it's not difficult to see this group being a very middling starting rotation. But it's also not that hard to imagine this group really being one of the better rotations in the league. Zach Galen flashed some very high-level potential last season. season. Luke Weaver has all sorts of injury questions still surrounding him from my standpoint after the whole forearm issue last season, potentially needing Tommy John. I think he'll be a really interesting guy to watch because he was actually really, really good last year when he pitched. Robbie Ray, we always know the ceiling is there. Madison Bumgarner, you figure to at least get

200 innings of quality baseball. And then Merrill Kelly and Mike Leak, of course, at the back end, both pretty solid options for a number five starting or starting pitcher. Looking at this list up and down, Jeff, I think there's all sorts of intrigue in this group. And I think probably more than any other aspect of the team, I think whether the Diamondbacks are able to push their way into the playoff conversation this year probably hinges

on how good this group really is. Yeah, I think one of the interesting things, if you look at this team, you know, when you look at the rotation that they have, you know, come the end of the 2018 season. So if we wind the tape back a bit, Madison Bumgarner,

Mike Leak, Zach Gallen, Luke Weaver, those four guys were not, those were not Diamondbacks just, you know, you know, 15, 16 months ago. So there's been a lot of turnover

in the rotation. Overall, I mean, again, kind of like the lineup that we discussed, you know, like the day. and day out lineup. I think there's good depth here.

There's again value kind of in the aggregate that you're not say you're you're not throwing away starts on your fifth starter. You know there's really like every one of these guys will give them a chance to win every time out. And if you're a team looking to compete, you have

to have that. The one thing that, you know, that might work against them, you know, a straight swap of Madison Bumgarner for Zach Grinke. It's probably a step backwards. Yeah. But a full season of Zach Gallen could help mitigate that.

Health for Luke Weaver could help mitigate that. So, you know, you can look at it a couple different ways. But overall, it still feels like a strength of the team. Let's move on from there to now that we've, you know, we've gone through all the different categories of this Diamondbacks club. I think in every category, I think we feel pretty good about their improvements. But certainly, I don't think they blew up. us away necessarily in any of those categories.

Jeff, let's look on the hole. How much better do you think the diamond backs are in 2020? I think for 2020, we can look at the lineup and acknowledge that it's improved. The position player group has improved, especially if they're able to add that, maybe that righty bench bat. I think they're really in a good spot there. The bullpen has taken that, you know, probably small step forward, just a step forward nonetheless.

and the rotation probably holding steady if things would go well it may be hard to see it necessarily improving in a major capacity when you add all that up I mean this is a team that won 85 games last year

I think this kind of puts them right back in that conversation but I also think that you know 85 84 85 wins is sort of where the conversation starts that's where they ended up last year But when we entered the season, we thought they were a 79, 80, 81, 82 win team. And they ended up sort of, you know, pushing forward, pushing beyond to get to that 85 win mark. If this team starts the year projected as maybe an 84, 85 win team, and maybe that's a win or too heavy.

But if we think that's kind of where they start, are they able to push into 89, 90 wins? Are they able to make a bullpen move, you know, mid-season? So if some of those things happen, I could really see this team and really health-dependent. But if they stay healthy, have that flexibility, you're able to make a move or two in season. I really think this is a team that's going to be in the thick of the wildcard conversation probably all year long. Instead of us wondering when they were going to quit playing 500 baseball, to a team that could probably outpace the 500 mark, you know, pretty early in the season and hopefully hold the little lead on that mark throughout the year.

So I do think they're better. I don't think they're remarkably better. You know, give them an extra win or two, maybe three. There might be that much better. But I'm not sure I'd go as far as to say they're, you know, five, eight, ten wins better than they were a year ago. Yeah. Yeah, no, I think I'm with you on that. And of course, this conversation would be moot if we did not consider, you know,

who the Diamondbacks are up against in terms of competition. We'll start locally. We'll start in the division. This might be a pipe dream to really think about the Diamondbacks overtaking the Dodgers in the National League West Division. I personally think that's a little bit far-fetched. But also I wouldn't necessarily rule that completely out. I think last season we looked at those two teams and we're like, okay, you know, you're kind of being

ridiculous if you're trying to make the case, the Diamondbacks are going to overtake the Dodgers. And I still think it's certainly unlikely and pretty far-fetched to think that coming into this season. But I think it's a lot more realistic than it was a year ago at the very least. The Dodgers really did not do much of anything this off-season. They went out, they got a few pitchers on low incentive-based deals. They got Jimmy Nelson. They brought back Alex Wood. But they really didn't do anything incredibly notable to improve their club.

The most notable thing that probably happened for them this offseason was the loss of Junjin Ryu, who was, you know, a Cy Young in the Sy Young conversation last season. So I think this Dodgers team probably took a bit of a step back. I think the Diamondbacks took a bit of a step forward, whether or not that really puts these two teams in the same category, remains to be seen. But I think at the very least, Jeff, I think the Diamondbacks could maybe sneak in the division conversation,

at least for the first several months of the season. Yeah, I think so. I think they're going to be right there, right there in the thick of that conversation, probably all year long. Running down the Dodgers, you're going to need a lot of things to break right. And by that, I mean,

you're going to need a lot of things to go right for the Diamondbacks and to go wrong for the Dodgers at the same time. That's a lot to ask for. Yeah. So let's just narrow our focus a little bit. You know, the Giants, for whatever reason, hung around and were kind of stingy last year. But they're probably the bottom dweller in the division. You know, or maybe the Rockies because they have done absolutely nothing this winter.

And I don't know what's going on over there. The Padres are the one team that, you know, seem to creep up and be a little scary. They also finished 70 and 92 last year, which just seems insane for a team that frankly has quite a bit of talent. They were bitten severely by injuries. Yeah. But a full season of, you know, Fernando Tatis Jr. This mini-Mishado play like a five-win player all of a sudden. More innings from Chris Paddock, et cetera.

McKenzie Gore maybe comes up. The Padres are probably the team that the Diamondbacks are the most worried about in 2020 as far as. as the NOS is concerned. That's so strange to hear the San Diego Padres as being, you know, just a team of concern. It feels like it's been a hot minute since that's been the case out in the NOS. But I agree with you. I think the Rockies and the Giants, those teams both seem to be trending downward. So, yeah, I think if anything, it's probably the Padres that are posing the threat.

But if anything, I would say that the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers are probably closer together than either of those teams is to any of those bottom three. Moving on from the divisional outlook, let's face it, the Diamond Baxter probably, as we said, probably not going to win this NOS division and most likely their route to the playoffs will once again come via the wild card. And after the deal went down with Starling Marte, I began to wonder to myself, maybe the Diamondbacks for once are actually going to be favored in that wild card. race.

Like maybe, maybe for the first time in a long time, people are going to still see the Dodgers as ahead of the Diamondbacks, but they're still going to think the Diamondbacks have a good chance to make the playoffs. And the more that I looked into these things, I grew a little bit more doubtful. I think there's too many teams in the National League that pose interesting problems for a team like the Diamondbacks. I think the NL East in particular is interesting with probably four out of those five teams, everyone but the Marlins, basically.

All of those teams have a genuine shot. You look at the NL Central. The Cincinnati Reds last season were a fourth place finisher, but they've done quite a bit this offseason. Of course, recently just getting Nick Castellanos. You're probably looking at all four teams except for the pirates being at least somewhat in the conversation. I think the Diamondbacks have a good shot.

I think they're certainly going to be in there, but I'm not yet convinced that they're better than the Braves or the Nationals or the Mets or the Phillies. I think any of those teams, the Brewers, of course, with Christian Yellich are always going to be a threat. The Cubs haven't done much, but I think they're always at least in the conversation. I'm not really comfortable putting the Diamondbacks as favorites in that wildcard race. Yeah, I don't know if I am either. I think one of the few things that might really work for them sort of in this big picture view is that the NOS, despite, you know, being a very competitive vision over the last couple of seasons,

is probably the least competitive of these three? True, true. Lots of games with the Giants and the Rockies and the Padres will probably help the Diamondbacks a lot. Yeah, exactly. So they're really going to have to like own the bottom of the division. I know you and I were speaking about this the other day, but that's going to be the place where they're going to have to sort of flex their muscle, you know, while the Cardinals and Brewers and Cubs and Reds are beating up on each other.

The Diamondbacks need to be nearly sweeping San Francisco, nearly sweeping Colorado in their season series. I mean, obviously, you're not going to sweep them for the entire season. But being dominant over those lower teams, that's one place they could probably find a little bit of a cushion. Because having a winning record against the Dodgers is going to be very, very difficult. And you probably expect them to play about, 500 ball against San Diego.

So they're going to have to do really well within the division against those bottom dwellers and then just be consistent when they do play the Marlins, when they do play the Pirates. I mean, they've got to win the winnable games because this thing is going to be a mess. You're right. There are a lot of contenders. There's a long ways to go. And how that all sort of shapes up. But right now I see a lot of names in the hat when we talk about the wild card.

Yeah, looking at the numbers from last season, the Diamondbacks in the division were 38 and 38 going forward. I think you're absolutely right. There's no way the Diamondbacks are going to be able to come out of the National League as a playoff team if they don't dominate in that division. You're probably looking at having to be around 10 games over the 500 mark in the division in order to really be able to make that push. Moving on from here, Jeff, I know we have some questions that we're left with. this diamond back's off season is probably, has probably come to a close in terms of the moves. It might be possible they pick up a, you know, maybe a veteran for the bench, maybe a guy for the bullpen, but I think both of those things seem pretty unlikely from the numbers that we've

been looking at, all of the money available seems to have been spent at this point. And I think this is probably the moment where this team, this group that they have right now is probably going to be their team moving into opening day in the beginning. of the season. For me, Jeff, I'm going to start with a question here that I think is one of the biggest ones facing this team this season. And it's really about one in particular player. I want to know if Catelle-Marte is insanely good like he was last season. Because you saw a guy, you saw a guy go from being a very nice player. He was roughly a three-win player for the Diamond Backs in the couple years prior. He was, you know, developing camaraderie with fans. I think a lot

of people liked watching Cotel Marte play and then came 2019 when he went completely off and put himself in the MVP conversation out of nowhere. This Diamondbacks roster is very, very balanced as we've talked about before. All of these guys can hit. They've got a lot of average or better hitters. But if Catee is not the MVP candidate that we saw last year, I think that position player group takes a significant step back. And it would be really hard for the Diamondbacks to really put themselves in the thick of the playoff conversations without really any offensive superstar and could tell Marte from my standpoint

really has to be that guy this season. Yeah, I agree. I mean, he's the most well positioned to take that role. It kind of has to be him. Unless someone else is going to come out like he did a year ago and just blow our minds, it's kind of got to be him. And they're going to need that. I mean, depth is great.

But there are moments when, you know, You really need someone to help, you know, just really, you know, fire up Chase Field, you know, and lead the offense and be that guy in that moment that everyone looks at and goes, yeah, he's got this. They have that for a long time with Paul Goldschmidt. Kattel Marte did a hell of a job, you know, carrying the torch last season. You know, they're going to need him to kind of do it again. So, yeah, I think that's, I think that's a big point because, man, if he, he regresses in some major way it's a big blow to them i'm going to move on to my second question then jeff i'll pitch it over to you i think you have a couple questions as well i want to know how good is this

bullpen i think that's a big big question moving forward here into this 2020 season we've talked about it a little bit already um but just just to summarize that point i think this bullpen has the the appearance of something that would hold a potentially playoff bound diamondbacks team back just a little bit. I think this bullpen is probably not going to be a disaster, but I really don't think that they have the late inning options that a lot of the other good contending teams in the National League are going to have. I don't know if you can really count on Archie Bradley. I don't know who you're going to count on after you've used Andrew Chafin already in the game. I'm not sure how good Junior Gwara and Hector Rondone truly are. I think

their upgrades, but they're certainly not significantly so. This bullpen is probably the weakest link for this Diamondbacks team. And we've seen it in years past. There is nothing more frustrating than a team that is built to succeed, but doesn't have the bullpen to get them there. And that is one of my biggest concerns for this 2020 team. Yeah, I mean, Archie Bradley had a good season last year, but if there was a year for him to really take a big step forward,

this would probably be it. Yeah. Um, this is, this is the time. I mean, it's the closer role. I mean, I know we're not going to hear a declaration, uh, here at the end of January about who the closer is for sure, but. Not from Tori Lavello. You won't. No, we won't. So, but I, but I feel pretty comfortable. I'm writing, uh, you know, not in pen, but in a sturdy pencil, uh, Archie Bradley's name to the closer role. And he really just needs to own it. I mean, everyone knows it's, it's really his job to lose and he needs to take it and run with it. That would be a big help. Again, there is sort of a

nice little like chunk of depth there, Inguera, Chaff and Rondone, even Kevin Ginkle in there. But how dependable are those guys night in and night out? Yeah, a little remains to be seen. I really do trust Andrew Chafin. I think you can put him in just about anywhere and, you know, he'll come in and do his job. And part of the other, you know, part of the other, you know, part maybe what's a little unsettling is that we haven't seen Guerra and Rondone really pitch much. Yeah. Just because they've been with other teams. So I'm taking, like you, I'm taking kind of a wait-and-see approach when it comes to the bullpen.

My biggest question that I had is just, and I think that it will ultimately impact the team, you know, whichever way it breaks, is what did they get from Luke Weaver? Because Luke Weaver a year ago, while he only threw 64 innings. was on pace to be a very, very good pitcher. One of the better pitchers in the National League, he had taken that step forward, put some of maybe the doubts behind him, and really, really emerged as like a very solid middle of the rotation arm with potential for more.

But his season was cut short. You mentioned the forearm tightness, some of the scare around his elbow. We know forearm tightness is typically a precursor or a word that tends to end up being tied to Tommy John surgery. Yet he didn't have it and it looks like they've tried to rehab it. So what do they get out of him? You know, can they get 120, 130 innings out of him? You know, we were noting before the show that he's never really thrown, you know, a ton of innings in a single season.

It's always been kind of in the 130, 140 mark. this looks like it'll be another year where they have to kind of stretch him out and build those innings back can he stay healthy enough to undergo that process and how much can they get out of him because if they lose Luke Weaver early you know you have to you have to transition someone like like a Merrill Kelly back to the rotation or John de Plante or roll with something you're a little less comfortable with you know that's a that's a big blow so I'm going to be watching the Luke Weaver situation very closely this spring. Yeah, we were talking before the show, looking at his numbers last season.

Those 64 innings, I mean, man, it was only 64 innings and it was over 12 starts. He was only averaging around, you know, a little over five innings per start when he was out there. But he really found his stride. You look at all of the different numbers. He really didn't have any weaknesses. His strikeout numbers were way up. His walk total was way down. he only had 14 walks over 64 in a third innings.

He didn't give up that much hard contact. The home runs weren't a problem for him like they were, of course, for much of Major League Baseball last season. He's a really complete pitcher. And I think, you know, you look back at the Paul Goldsmith trade. Obviously, Carson Kelly is exciting in his own right. But Luke Weaver was certainly, you know, as a central part of that deal. And if things go south for him from an injury standpoint,

it's probably going to be a while. You know, you're probably not going to lose Luke Weaver if he goes down for, you know, a few weeks and then he'll be back. Luke Weaver, because of, you know, the forearm tightness and the elbow issues that have been well documented, it's possible you could just kind of lose Luke Weaver for this season and maybe part of next season. That would be a huge blow for this team, not only in 2020, but of course, you know, beyond that and in terms of how good he could be when he came back from something like

that. Yeah, absolutely. It's kind of a pivotal guy, no matter which way it goes, either plus or minus. And I'll get to my, I'll get to my last question. And that was, you know, what does the team do with Jake Lamb? He is kind of marooned on the bench, it looks like here. Eduardo Escobar, you know, has really found a nice stride in his, you know, late 20s, early 30s. and it's going to be awfully difficult to make the case that Jake Lamb should be playing third base over Edwardo Escobar. Escobar is a switch hitter, so it's just a difficult like platoon situation.

So I don't know Lambs roll at third. And then at first base, you know, Christian Walker, you know, if you look at his season as a whole last year, it looks encouraging. The other part of that is that we know that he was really, really hot and really, really cold. And so he had some pretty tough streaks. And so I don't know how much room there is for him to even play first base, Jake Lamb to play first base.

And on top of that, I mean, you know, being left-handed, there are already some left-handed bats in the lineup. I just don't really know the fit for him. He's a below-average defender at third. So it's not like a defensive replacement. And, you know, just about nobody in baseball fielded at first base like, Chris. Christian Walker did last year. So I just don't know Jake Lamb's role. I don't quite understand it.

In our off-season plan, you know, we did not advocate for bringing him back. When they decided to tender him a contract or arbitration, I assumed they did so with the confidence that either A, they could work him into the lineup more consistently or B, there would be enough demand for his services that they could move his, you know, $5 million or so pretty easily. But at this point, you know, it's kind of looking like he's taking up a spot on the roster and doesn't have a clear fit. So maybe they hold onto him through the spring and just kind of hope everyone, you know, stays healthier, keep him for insurance. But to me, he's just an odd fit. And I don't really know what they end up doing with him. I mean, if it were me, I would lean towards trade.

But, you know, I'm not having those phone calls. I don't know how that's going. Yeah, I agree with you. I think we were talking earlier today about how, you know, maybe that $5 million, you know, in this Diamondbacks payroll situation thing seemed to be pretty tight. $5 million is a relatively significant amount of money for a team like this. You know, a couple of the moves the Diamondbacks have made, the Zoffseason, the Stephen Vote move, the Rondone move, the Guera move, all of those were under $5 million.

So it's not like that's such a small amount of money that the Diamondbacks could, couldn't have just non-tendered him and decided to, you know, use that $5 million on a different player on the market. I think it's a really, really interesting situation with Jake Lamb. I certainly wish him all the best. We've seen him be a really good player in the past. He was an all-star conversation, not that long ago, which is hard to really think about now. But he's been really good over his career.

And I think he's going to be a key part of this Diamondbacks bench when they need, you know, a left-handed hitter late in a game if you've got, you know, a right-handed closer on the mound for the opposing team or whatever that situation may be. He might get some of those big, a late game at bats. And I think it'll be really interesting to see, which Jake Lamb do we get? Do we get the Jake Lamb who, you know, still has some shoulder issues, who's still struggling with injuries,

or do we get more of the Jake Lamb that we saw a few years ago? Right. No, absolutely true. And that's the one last piece I'll say, and I kick it back. but just, you know, they have a better feel for his health and, you know, how any of those, you know, shoulder issues and or, you know, swing issues that held him back. So maybe they have a little more confidence internally than we do. And, you know, maybe that explains the decision to hang on to him.

Last thing before we say goodbye here in the 17th episode of the Rattle podcast, Jeff, we talked about this briefly earlier. what would happen if the Diamondbacks ownership group decided that they really wanted to spend money on this baseball team? It kind of feels, it really is felt like this Diamondbacks team has been stuck at around this, you know, $110 to $120 million range for really quite a while now. And you certainly don't see teams across the league. You know, we're not expecting a, you know, a $10 million increase or anything like that on an annual basis. This teams generally, you know, raise their payroll more gradually. But it really feels like Mike Hazen has just been really squeezed here in his time in Arizona.

And after we've gotten to see just how good this guy is at building a team, you know, with $110 or $120 million, it really has to make you wonder, what would the Diamondbacks be if Mike Hazen had $140, $145, $150 million in his pocket? it. Mike Hazen, at the helm of this team, I can't even really begin to imagine how good the Diamondbacks could be if Mike Hazen had that kind of capital in his grasp. Yeah, I agree. It's an interesting question. I mean, there's kind of the opening day payroll figure, right, which we've seen kind of stuck in this, you know, 110 and then it sort of dipped for a few years, but then, you know, got back to, you know, right around, you know, 125, 1.30 in

2018 and then was kind of 120 to 125 and 2019 sort of feels like that's about where they're at again the end of the year figures can can bury a little bit but um i do just think about you know uh you know from from entering the off season standpoint if hazen had a little more rope to work with um it's intriguing uh it's intriguing to think about you know some of the bullpen options that all of a sudden become attainable. It's intriguing to think about, you know, some of the upgrades that you could potentially go after, even on the trade market, thinking about contracts that come back or through free agency that all of a sudden are in the conversation.

And so it's tough to, you know, you can see, you know, if we read between the lines, we look at how deals are structured, we look at comments closely. So you can kind of tell, like, Mike Hazen's like making it work, right? You know, he's finding his way through it. But, you know, I think, you know, he's already, at least in my, has kind of proven himself. You know, maybe he needs another year of doing that for ownership's sake. It is really easy to spend someone else's money. But, you know, at some point, does he earn enough confidence that they start giving him a little bit more?

And, you know, that's perhaps tied to, you know, internal revenue figures. or gate attendance and things like that, I'm not sure. But it does leave us kind of asking what if. And man, trust me, I've done it. You can go around in circles on that one. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much for listening to this 17th edition of the Rattle podcast. We really appreciate you following our work here at the Rattle.

If you have not already, be sure to give us a follow on Twitter. you can find our group page at the Rattle AZ on Twitter. You can find me personally at at Jesse N. Friedman. You can find Jeff at Outfield Grass 24. Be sure to connect with us on Twitter. We would love to hear what you think of this episode. And also check out our website. You can find our content at www.

Therattle.net where we have new written pieces coming out every week or so. We'd also love to hear your feedback on that as well. And ladies and gentlemen, once again, thank you so much for listening. That's all that we have for today. And we'll be back soon once again to talk about the 2020 Arizona Diamondbacks.