PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Ep. 31: Recapping a Miserable June + Keanan Lamb talks D-backs draft strategy

Episode Date: July 2, 2021

Jesse and Jeff discuss the Tim Locastro trade, the team's lack of depth that continues to haunt them, and briefly discuss the team's approach at the trade deadline. Then Baseball Prospectus MLB draft guru Keanan Lamb joins the show to break down a few possible strategies for the D-backs in the upcoming draft. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome into episode 31 of the Rattle Podcast, as always. My name is Jesse Friedman along with Jeff, my co-host. And Jeff, the Arizona Diamondbacks, have just finished out officially the first half of the season. June is now behind us. We have moved into July. And I know about 30 days ago right now, everyone was saying, all right, you know, May was a horrible month. And now the Diamondbacks have an opportunity to turn the page into June. and unfortunately that's not exactly what happened.

The Diamondbacks went on to have an even worse month of June than they had in May. They were 3 in 24, which I believe, I don't know if you saw this, Jeff, but I believe, according to Nick Picoro, their 3 in 24 record in June is the worst record in June since the 1889 Louisville Colonels, that according to Nick Piccoro. So apparently not the best of company to, be with there. But needless to say, it's been a rough couple of months after a really somewhat promising start to the year for the Diamondbacks. And Jeff, things have just continued to spiral downward for this baseball team. Yeah, I mean, you know, the colonels, I remember those days.

And it was just, man, it was tough, you know, being a colonel's fan then. Yeah, how old were you then, Jeff? I'd rather not say it. No, yeah, no, the, it's really been tough. You know, 3 and 24, I mean, you and I have watched a lot of baseball. We've seen a lot of teams play sloppy games and win. We've seen the inverse of that, too. But my goodness, I mean, three wins in a month, you know, you almost feel like you would just stumble into a couple more than that. It's what makes it so hard to fathom.

And, you know, they've, I do feel like. Like at times, like they've put some good efforts like out on the field. I mean, they've done really, really tremendously poorly in one run games. And there have been several of them where they've been close and they just can't kind of hold it, you know, can't hold it through the later innings or, you know, can't push that last run across. So, yeah, it's been, it's been tough to watch, frankly. It's been a really, really difficult time to be dime back span. I did some research the other day, which some of you may have already seen on Twitter,

But it really is just felt lately like the number of innings that the Diamondbacks have given to some of these pitchers that frankly are just not majorly caliber pitchers, at least not at this point in their career. You know, maybe we hope guys like John DuPontier and, you know, Corbyn, Martin and some of the guys the Diamondbacks have tried out this year, figure things out down the road. Some of them, I think, may still have a bright future ahead. But the problem is the Diamondbacks have given 26 starts, which is a about 32% of the games that they have played to one of these guys.

This is the list, Jeff. Riley Smith, Matt Peacock, Alex Young, Corbin Martin, Seth Frankoff, John DuPontier, and Jake Faria is the most recent addition to that list. 32% of the season, you're talking about one out of every three games has been started by those guys. And with the possible exception of Alex Young, who showed some promise last year, and, you know, I think, I think in some ways he deserved. a shot, you know, maybe getting a few spot starts this season.

But other than that, there is really not a name on this list that probably would even have a shot at a bullpen roll, you know, on most other major league rosters. And of course, this is not just because, you know, it's not just because these are genuinely some of the better pitchers on the roster. A lot of this is due to injury. But the number of starts, the number of innings that they have had to give to these guys is really unfathomable. and as I said, injuries play a lot into that, certainly.

But it is, it's a big reason why Diamondbacks baseball is hard to watch right now is that in a lot of ways when we're watching, especially on the pitching staff side of things, is kind of a glorified AAA roster where, you know, I think other than Zach Gallen, Merrill Kelly, maybe probably Caleb Smith as well, I think those guys, you know, we can confidently say those are major league caliber pitchers. I don't know, Jeff, if there's another guy on this roster as far as the pitching staff is concerned that I could confidently say, yes, you know, they are a major league caliber pitcher. They would be one on the Diamondbacks. They would be one on other teams.

I don't know if the Diamondbacks have more than three guys right now who would make that list. And a lot of that is due to injuries. And a lot of that is due to the fact that as we pointed out at the beginning of the season, their pitching depth is really lacking. and they are just so much less equipped to deal with all of these injuries than a lot of other teams would be. Yeah, it's, it is unfortunate. And that's just such a huge chunk of the season. I mean, it's massive.

It's tough to turn on the TV, you know, at night and kind of like settle in. And like, oh, okay, this is a Matt Peacock start. Like nothing against Matt Peacock. Like, you know, someone's got to take, you know, take their turn through the rotation. someone's got to log the innings, but it's hard to feel confident that he's going to give them, you know, in a starting role, a chance to win the game. Yeah. You know, guys like him and Riley Smith are, you know, they're grouting through it. They are, they're really doing, you know, kind of some really difficult work right now.

I mean, I think they're probably under no illusions that they're a little short-handed. And so, yeah, these are guys that, you know, probably best served as long men out of a bullpour. 10. You know, at best, maybe guys you bring in to try to generate, you know, double plays, you know, in the fifth or sixth inning. But they're just not guys you want to try to get through four, five, six innings with on a regular basis. And that's where this team is right now.

And it's just been brutal. I mean, and Alex Young, I mean, he was just Sensorino, I think probably to stretch out. His last several relief appearances have been growing longer and longer in duration. and so I think there may be a chance that he's heading to Reno to probably get stretched out even further and probably join the rotation back as a starter again. And so we're also to that point now where more and more guys that were slotted in as, as relievers or even as fringy relievers are now becoming starting pitchers. And man, that is just nothing short of a recipe for disaster.

Yeah, yeah. Well, you wrote an article, I think it was a couple weeks ago now, writer ground when we released our last show. And if any of you have not read this yet, I highly recommend it. It's called Past Transgressions Are Haunting the Debacks. And that might be a severe understatement. But basically, you went in and looked at all of the Diamondbacks draft picks from, you know, from years past. This is all prior to Mike Hazen's tenure.

And they went about five years from 2012 to 2016 where they basically, you know, and obviously in the moment, you know, we were probably excited about some of these guys and, you know, they showed promise even over the last few years. But in terms of their actual Major League performance, the Diamondbacks have gotten next to nothing from the draft from those years prior to when Mike Hazen came. And of course, we've started to see the fruits of some of Hazen's draft picks. Paven Smith this year, of course, one of the main guys. He was a first round pick in 2017.

But yeah, these guys have just sort of turned into nothing. And, you know, granted a lot of them play for other teams now. But not only have they been unproductive for the Diamondbacks, but they really haven't been productive anywhere. And it sort of calls into question this team's ability to develop players and to do really what small market teams have to do in order to succeed. and the Dynch packs just have not been able to do that. Yeah, 100%. That's their model for success is going to be always to acquire talent. We'll certainly have more on the draft here in a little bit as that's looming.

But yeah, it was just a really bad, like half decade. You know, first round picks of Stryker, Trey Hand, Braden Shipley, Tuky Toussaint, Dansby-Swanson. None of those guys have really panned out to be much of anything. I mean, Danes B. Swanson is a major league regular, but, you know, Danesby Swanson also isn't necessarily really very good. And I think that can get skewed. So, I mean, you could look at this list of players, and I think there's about 16 of them in total. And Alex Young or Taylor Clark are probably the two best players they drafted during that time.

And that's, you know, getting a couple of sort of middle to late inning, relief arms out of that out of like a half decade of top 100 picks is uh it's not a very good return on your investment um and i think one of the i think one of the main takeaways i was kind of doing that that work was you know just reflecting on the fact that a major league baseball draft doesn't really reveal itself in terms of how good or poor it is for several years the the there's such a lag i mean you're not drafting a you're not drafting a quarterback you know one one and he's your starter, you know, the next season or something. Right. Right. It takes some time, you know, take several years for these guys to climb the

ladder and for us to find out kind of who they are. And, you know, those guys, if, if those picks had been, you know, perhaps quality ones, those would be players that would be under team control right now. These are guys that generally speaking would be, you know, kind of in their mid to late 20s, probably really kind of hitting their prime. And instead, there's really nothing there. And, you know, they were able to get through that and patch it up a little bit. But, you know, I think when you have sort of this underlying gap reveals itself sooner or later, and it goes back to your point about not having the depth to lean back into. No one anticipated this many injuries. I think in hindsight, we could look back and say that with the, you know, the pandemic shortened season,

that maybe a higher rate of attrition should have been maybe accounted for. But, you know, that's a That's easy to say now. Right. But yeah, it was a dark time. And I think it's, you know, in some ways, is only exacerbating the problems they're facing right now. Okay. This is very off topic, but I have to go there for a second. You mentioned Danesby Swanson and the fact that he is not panned out.

At the time, I think this was before you and I were doing this show together. I think this is back when I had my other co-host, Sean, way back when the Diamond Max made that trade, and I was one of few people who was actually somewhat on board with the Shelby Miller trade to Arizona, and I know I'm probably getting like virtual like rotten tomatoes thrown at me right now. And yeah, I sort of look like an idiot. But part of me holds on to the fact that Danesby Swanson has really not been, you know, a transcendent player.

There was something about trading a guy you just drafted first overall that was just a really bad look. And even if things had panned out in the end, it still is a bad trade. You know, not all trades that turn out good were good trades. I think there's certainly something to be said for, you know, maximizing the value of your assets at the time the deal was done. But part of me looks back on that deal, Jeff, and thinks if Shelby Miller had actually been the pitcher that he was in Atlanta, if he had been, you know, not a number one or maybe not even a number two, like they were probably expecting him to be, if he had been a. If he had been a solid number three starter for three years and not had the total complete collapse that he had in Arizona. And now I don't know if he even pitches in baseball anymore, at least not at the major league level. Part of me looks back at that trade and is like, I actually might have been right.

I actually might have been right. And that, you know, Shelby Miller might have been able to take the diamond backs deeper into the postseason than they were able to make it. and Dansby Swanson is not really a guy that you're looking back on right now and are too disappointed you let go of. No, and I actually made the case that he and Nick Ahmed since Danzby Swanson really played us

first full big league season, him and Nick Ahmed have been like almost identical players in terms of both Fangraphs-based war and offense. They are very, very similar players. Right. And I don't know that the public perception is that way. But that's the, you know, that's kind of how it, how it's bared out. And yeah, I don't

think anyone expected obviously Miller to be, you know, what became of that. And I don't think also people expected Danes Bousanson to be kind of who he is now, you know, which is definitely short of what people were hoping for. The biggest thing that haunts me there is that Alex Breggman was available. And I know he's got his haters, but what he does on the field sure would have been useful. So yeah, that's just a messy situation all the way around. Well, yeah, forgive me as I patched my wounds from 2016, but I just had to get that off my chest. But yes, we have some news that has come down recently in the organization to run through real quick. Injury update, I know Cole Calhoun hit like two home runs on three pitches

the other day in Reno on a rehab assignment and has since had issues with a hamstring popping up. So I feel like this is just par for the course for the 2021 Diamondback. So hopefully Cole Calhoun gets back at some point. He would certainly be a sight for sore eyes and a middle of a lineup that's pretty lost right now. But hopefully he's able to overcome that setback and get back here as soon as possible. J.B. Bukowskis was reinstated from the 10-day injured list today. It should be fun to watch him pitch. I know it was a little bit disappointing in his first wave here in the majors.

Maybe his injury played into that, but we'll certainly be locked into seeing him pitch. That slider is filthy. We all know the potential there. And then most recently, the news that came down today, the Diamondbacks have traded outfielder, much-beloved outfielder Tim LaCastro to the New York Yankees. They got a young AA pitcher in return, who I know Joshua Inman, our colleague. here at the Rattle is basically said he might be like the second coming of Kevin Ginkle, which may or may not be a good thing.

But LeCastro is officially out of the organization. I think if nothing else, Tim LaCastro, let's face it, was not a particularly great player. But in terms of like how much he was just enjoyed by the fan base and the constant Tim LaCastro hit by pitch watch and the fact that, he stole, I believe he set the record for most stolen bases to start a career without being caught. So he was certainly a fun player and I'm sure he'll be missed by a lot of people here, even if, you know, he wasn't exactly your middle of the order bad or a star of any kind,

but certainly a fun player to have around. Absolutely. Yeah, definitely going to miss Timmy Lowe, you know, kind of missing him do what he did on the basis. You know, I think, I think for, in his case, like, has. was at least an entertaining baseball player, which when your team is going, you know, three and 24 in the month of June,

you know, you'll take just like face value entertainment. Something to be said for that. Yeah, you can hold your breath and hope he gets hit by a pitch or, you know, steal a base or something, yeah. So I'm going to kind of miss him. I think he can play kind of a useful role for the Yankees. So good for him.

And, you know, hopefully maybe we get to see him play a little bit when the postseason comes around. So good for him. I think Kegan Curtis, the right-handed pitcher that was acquired in the trade. It's a 25-year-old reliever in AA who is really taking some strides forward this year. In terms of a strikeout rate, he's striking out nearly 40% of batters he's faced. But he gives up a ton of fly balls.

And so far this year, none of them have left the park. I think we've seen enough Diamondbacks games to know that no one gets away with that. forever, but there's something to be said about being kind of on the extremes and some value there. I mean, that's a sort of a comparable profile to a guy we haven't seen this year. We've seen him in the past and Tyler Clippard. So, you know, perhaps that works. And, you know, Curtis is, you know, reportedly, you know, has a fastball in the mid to upper 90s with a spike curveball that can be kind of nasty at times. But it seems to be maybe a little inconsistent. So there's a there's certainly a relief vacuum i really got a a pitching vacuum in general

right now so i think there's a chance that we see him before the end of the season um he's old enough there's really no reason to you know keep him down for any sort of you know uh you know manipulation reasons about trying to control his service time or anything like that so sure i think there's a there's a possibility that he's a guy that gets a gets a look at some point here later in the season yeah well Let's jump into some of our questions from our listeners. I guess I haven't mentioned. We have a special guest joining us on the show here later today, which should be a lot of fun.

We're going to talk with Keenan Lamb, who is a baseball prospectus guy, knows pretty much everything there is to know about the MLB draft. So we're going to chat with him here in a few minutes. But leading up to that, Jeff, we have a few questions from listeners that have come in here. I'll start here with Justin McDiarmont, who said, who are the call-ups who are played who will replace the pieces that are traded away this trade deadline. He wonders about Drew Ellis for Eduardo Escobar and his Drewel Cabrera, maybe seeing Nick Heath get a little bit more of a look.

Yeah, I'll start with you on this, Jeff. Are there any names that come to mind as guys who could be candidates to come up and replace some of those spots? Yeah, I think Nick Heath is probably the most immediate fit for the roster, probably continues to, you know, be sort of an intermittent player, I think, in some ways, kind of like La Castro was. I mean, LeCastro wasn't necessarily, you know, starting every day. So I don't think Nick Heath is all of a sudden going to become the everyday center fielder. But he's probably someone who gets more of a look.

And, you know, maybe that's worth something. I don't know that anyone's really holding their breath that Nick Heath is going to, you know, turn some major corner and turn into a. Yeah, right. To a really valuable big league piece, but at the same time, you know, yes, a profile is a lot like Tim LaCastro's. So if the speed and defense thing is, you know, something that you're comfortable, like penciling into the eight hole in the lineup on occasion, that might be worth giving, you know, another look to.

And let's face it, like, you know, getting someone in return for Tim LaCastro and opening up a little spot for Nickythe, that's not going to change the franchise's fortunes in any way, but for potentially the positive. So a good net move there. I think the infield is really tricky. I think everyone sort of expects Eduardo Escobar to be traded at this point. I don't think Tim Lecastro was the person that everyone expected to be traded first. But third base is really kind of open and there just isn't a lot of infield depth that's really ready.

Drew Ellis isn't on the 40-man roster, so, you know, that takes some shuffling to bring him in. I think you could look at maybe a guy like Josh Van Meter, getting a more extended look at third base. Maybe we see Andrew Young there on occasion, but his fielding has really been difficult. So pending a few more moves and opening up some spots, I think probably Josh Van Meter is probably your most immediate,

you know, third base kind of candidate there. And, you know, Stuart Fairchild is also kind of looming. as another outfield guy who could come back up and get another look. He hit a couple homers the other night in Reno. So those are probably kind of the most immediate pieces that I think we'll probably see. But, you know, I do keep in mind. I do think the team will continue to seek sort of upper level close to the majors returns and the trades that they do make.

So the answer to who plugs some of these holes may not be evident yet. because those may be guys, they're still looking to acquire. Sure. Yeah. No, I think you covered our base as well on that. D-BACs factoids on Twitter says it seems like last year and so far this year, the return on trades is minimal. Maybe due to COVID losses, he's thinking about Mike Minor, Jonathan V.R. Robbie Ray, some of the trades that maybe didn't have as big of a return as you might expect in some years.

Assuming a depressed market should the debacks only trade their expiring contracts. I think it's a really insightful comment. It does seem like, especially in the last year, in the past few years even maybe, that returns at the trade deadline have seemed to be a little bit smaller than what you might expect. And so the Diamondbacks are certainly not a team other than the guys who are on expiring contracts, as was mentioned here. They're not a team that really has to make moves beyond that. You know, you could always wait until the off season.

or some other stage next year to think about moving some of these other guys. So the debacks, especially given how many injuries they're dealing with right now, there's something to be said for, you know, bodies that are on the roster that can play outfield tomorrow, that, you know,

they certainly have some need for. I don't think they're looking to like desperately move every guy that they possibly can. Jeff, what's your take on this? Yeah, I mean, I think we,

I don't think the deadline, you know, for several years now, the deadline really hasn't been sort of, I think, what historically we may be associated with. There's been fewer and fewer really big deals at deadlines. And so, you know, there's something driving that. And I think that it's teams have realized and teams are trying to, you know, maximize the value of their players while they're inexpensive and cost before they hit arbitration, certainly

before they hit free agency. So it's made it really tough. I just don't think the return for even a guy like Eduardo Escobar, you might look at maybe getting one sort of interesting prospect back, but you're not going to get a top 100 guy. Right. And that makes it really tough. So it makes it tough to think about if that's kind of the going rate and that's what returns are looking like, do you really want to move Cateau-Marte? Do you really want to move Zat-Gallin under those circumstances? Right.

And the answers probably no. It's really hard to get a Cattel-Marté. It's really hard to get a Zach Gowan. And so, you know, hanging on to those guys until you're really, really forced, as you said, I think makes a lot of sense. They can play those situations out quite a bit further before they need to make a decision there. Sure. Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, even, I mean, the diamondbacks were sellers last year. And I don't think we've been particularly blown away with, you know, what they got for Starling Marte or what they got for Archie Bradley or, you know, so if even that is any, you know, any indication in itself. Yeah, there's really not a reason to be rushing to sell every guy on the roster right now. So, yeah, I think that's a great point. Last thing here, last question is from Greg Littleton, just came in a couple minutes ago.

I'm glad we were able to patch this in. He said, given the decent farm system and the new young players, Pave and Smith, Josh Rojas, Zach Allen, etc., when do you think the debacks could seriously compete for a playoff spot or even the division again. This is something we spent a decent amount of time delving into in our last show. So, Greg, I'd probably refer you to that one if you haven't gotten a chance to take a listen. We did our best at answering this sort of impossible question to answer.

But we'll go out of again here real quick. I feel like it's at a certain point with a major league franchise, there is no way, there's basically no way of thinking that next year they're going to compete. And there's no way you're probably going to expect this team to compete the year following that either, just given the state of the franchise right now and the fact that, you know, guys like Josh Rojas and Pavin Smith, although they've been good, I don't know if we necessarily see them blossoming into, you know, all-star caliber players anytime soon. And so I think what you look at right now is you look at the roster and you see a team that doesn't really have what it needs to compete and needs something to change dramatic. for that to happen. And there's certainly potential for that to happen, given some of the guys they have in the lower levels of the minor leagues.

Alec Thomas is a big name that's been circling lately. He's going to be the team's representative in the futures game, which is exciting. And there's some other guys, too. You know, there's Christian Robinson, who's had some major visa issues and whatnot that we talked about in our last show. But he certainly still has a high ceiling. There's enough high ceiling in the minor leagues that you've had some. could see it playing out that, you know, three, four years from now, this team is ready to go.

But at this point, there's nothing close enough for me to really feel comfortable putting a certain year on much of anything at this point. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you there. And that echoes, I think I do think what we talked about before in it. You know, I also think, you know, I think the system itself, you know, some of these guys are also having some kind of down years and or are missing time. And Corbyn Carroll hasn't played since the very beginning.

of the season after a season ending shoulder injury. I mean, how's he going to come back? Right. You know, a lot of these guys are really struggling. Corbyn Martin has really had a tough time. A lot of this talent is, A, sort of, you know, undefined in terms of really what it is going to be just yet. And B, like a long ways off.

And we know, right, like Corbin Martin's like a great case study in the fact that you don't necessarily come up and click right away. Yeah. So, you know, after some fits and starts and a few, you know, and some unfortunate injuries and you look at this list, like, I'm the DeVax Miners, you know, guy in the morning, you know, most days. I mean, I'm as excited as anybody. But I think that it's easy to sort of dream on the projection and, you know, what's going

to pan out in reality could be far different. So, yeah, I think there's. are some pieces here and hopefully it goes the way, you know, it goes the way they envision it and there's a lot to build around. But that is just, in my opinion, a really, really long ways off at this point. Yeah, yeah. Well, we've seen the tide turn in situations we didn't really expect it to in the past with this organization. But it is going to have to take something unprecedented, I think, for us to get to the point where we really feel comfortable, you know, calling this team a contender in X number of years.

But that's the, you know, the beauty of this game is, is staying the course and, and, you know, watching those unexpected turns come over the years. So, but yeah, so with that, we're going to go ahead and take a quick break here. I'm going to do an ad read for a new sponsor of ours. We're moving up in the world here, Jeff. We have sponsors now. So I'm going to do that. And then when we come back on the other side of the break, we're going to visit with

Keenan Lamb. Keenan is the senior MLB draft writer and amateur scouting coordinator at baseball prospectus. And he's going to give us some insight into what the Diamondbacks might do during the MLB draft, which is about 10 days away now. So stick with us. We'll be right back after this break. And then we'll have a conversation with Keenan.

We have breaking news here from our friends at Draft Kings. Draft Kings free to play pools are keeping it cool all summer long here in the Valley of the Sun. You can choose from a wide variety of free contest to enter the pool and answer a handful of questions. Make picks for free and grab your share of $10,000 in weekly prizes. Entering one of Draft Kings free-to-play pools is simple. Just download the Draft King's app and head to their pools page. You can select from one of many Draft Kings contests and then make your picks and watch the action unfold. Entries with the most correct answers will be deemed the winners. And once again, Draft King's free-to-play pools have up to thousands of dollars in cash prizes available every day.

So now that you know how to play, download the Draft Kings app and sign up using code dry heat. All players will have a free shot at grabbing $10,000 in weekly prizes without spending a dime. That's code dry heat to feel the sweat. Only at Draft Kings eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com for details. Welcome back into this 31st episode of the Rattle podcast here on the other side of our break. And we are honored to be joined by Keenan Lamb here in the second half of our program. Keenan is the senior MLB draft writer and amateur scouting director or coordinator, excuse me, at baseball prospectus.

Keenan, first of all, thank you so much for joining the show today. We really appreciate your time. No problem. You know, I feel honored to be here, guys. The honored is just all goes all the way around. So I appreciate you guys having me on. Yes. Well, the feeling is mutual.

Well, hey, Keenan, we know that you are here to give all of us a slam dunk money back guarantee on who the diamondbacks are taking in the first round of the MLB draft in 10 days. So we're going to hold you to that. No pressure. No, all jokes aside. Keenan, obviously, there's a lot of, you know, a lot of different things the Diamondbacks could do in this draft. This seems to be sort of an interesting case where really no one knows who's going first overall. And certainly the Diamondbacks being slotted in at number six. It's a little bit hard to say exactly who's going to be left over.

I think a lot of this sort of depends on the teams in front of them. I don't know how much of their own destiny they control here. But Keene, just give me your take on just as it pertains to the Diamondbacks as a franchise and what you think might make the most sense for them to target here in this draft. Sure. And I think this draft is really unique in some really fundamental ways. So there is in any draft, kind of like we'll call them just tiers of players where you feel pretty good that there's a very consistent level of talent between a certain groupings of players.

and some years that there's a number one overall guy, and he's head and shoulders above everybody else, you know, your Bryce Harper's, your Steven Straussbergs, you know, those kind of players. And sometimes there's a little bit of a grouping at the top.

And sometimes like this year, it actually expands more than just like a handful. Like if you told me the top eight players in this year's draft, if I can tell you, the top eight guys could go in literally any order. You just pick names out of a hat. You'd have almost as good. of a chance as picking the first eight picks in this draft as really what could end up happening.

It's a very fluid situation. Who could go number one is a cascading effect goes down on number two, goes down on number three. It really just depends on the preference draft boards and the teams ahead of the Diamondbacks. And whoever falls to them, and I'm going to put air quotes around falls because it's not really, you know, you're not going to get a bad player here. they're really kind of left up to what's on their board, what they see as the best player, depending on who goes ahead of them,

more so than any other year, really. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I definitely, I definitely concur in it. It's kind of a,

they're kind of sitting, you know, they're sitting in a seat where they are going to have to be a little bit reactive. Right. As a team drafting, like, how do you think they feel about sort of sitting in that seat and not,

I mean, what does this kind of force them to do? And how would they have had to sort of, I guess, prepare for a situation like this? I definitely believe that they are going to be focusing on probably one of about three players, which, you know, again, anything going to happen in front of them, but you have to have these contingency plans ahead of time. You're going to talk to the player. You're going to talk to their representative.

You're going to know what their signing bonus demands are going to be, you know, at pick number six, which the diamondbacks have about 5.75 million, give or take, for slot money at that number six picks. So I don't think, you know, if you're going to have a guy like, say, Jack Leiter gets to pick number six, I don't know if he's really going to want to take $5.75 million. He's probably going to want to still take $7 or $8 million. So are you, as the Diamondbacks, are you convinced, okay, we want Jack. ladder this much that we're willing to overspend on our on our first pick and we're going to have to

cut some corners here later on in the draft i think that they're more likely going to go chalk they're going to try to find a guy probably in that that five and a half to six million dollar range so they don't have to take too much of a haircut i think that if you look at past drafts the kind of the the type of player that they've looked at the last we'll just say five years you're looking at either a high-level college performer usually a pitcher But then those guys are usually in the back of the draft or the back of the first round or the second round. Those are the guys that they'll usually target. If it's more up towards the, I would say the first half of the first round, you're looking at very toolsy, maybe not the most athletic guys, but guys who have really high baseball acumen and skills.

Guys like Corby and Carole and Matt McLean, even though he didn't sign. And Dansby Swanson, you can go back to Alec Thomas, even though he wasn't a first round pick. Those are guys who have a specific profile. And I think that if you're going to try and put that into this year's draft with the players who are going to be available around pick number six, you're going to look at a guy like Khalil Watson, who's a short step at a North Carolina. You can play up the middle, very athletic, but he also has a ton of really good baseball tools with a good contact line drive ability. It's possible they could go a guy like Henry Davis, who's a little bit against the grain. as a college catcher. He's just a guy who barrels everything.

Excellent power, kind of a weird offensive setup. But when I saw him this year, it's pretty impressive what he's able to do to a baseball when he gets into one. And he's also got one of the best arms that the draft has seen from the catcher position in probably a couple years. He might not actually be a catcher. So if you're thinking to yourself, oh, well, you know, two, three years, do we really want to have him competing for playing time with, you know, some of the other catcher? that we have in the position, he might end up being a right fielder or a third baseman when all a sudden done. So don't really worry about the position right now. So I think those are two of the main guys. Brady House is probably another name to be watching for as a really high level prospect

out of the state of Georgia, high school player. He's a shortstop listed now. He's probably going to move over to third base. He's a six foot three, really good, strong player, but he's probably going to move off that position just because of foot speed when you think about maybe some of the muscle gains will have when he gets into pro ball, he wouldn't be surprised if he moves down into the hot corner. But he's a guy who also has really done a very good job this spring showing that he's got good fluidity to a swing, good athletic player and had some of the best exit bellows in some of the summer showcase tournaments that would happen last year. Yeah. Yeah, definitely. I mean, they seem to have leaned, you know, definitely.

lean to a type and I think you nailed it. And that's why I think, you know, there was so much buzz around a guy like Sal Frelick maybe for them early on, although six is maybe a little high for him. You know, it's been so interesting the way the top of this draft class has really maybe rearranged itself, I guess, over the last three months or so. And there was certainly that time when it was, you know, lighter and rocker right up at the top. I'm definitely getting the feeling that lighter. is going to be off the board.

And bonus-wise, I mean, as you said, they seem to play things pretty straight. I have a hard time believing that they'd be willing to go extremely overslot for just about anybody. That said, it does seem like Kumar Rocker is a guy who could potentially slide to them, and maybe I'll borrow your air quotes for slide. How do you feel about him as a fit for this organization and just kind of him overall? And can you maybe talk a little bit about what's maybe taken him out of the first or second overall conversation? Sure. So with Rocker, he's one of the more famous players who have gotten to the draft here in the last couple of years.

He's a very well-known prospect that, I mean, every scout has seen, every scouting director has seen multiple times really going back into high school when he was considered still a first-round talent. Being at Vanderbilt the last couple of years, all he's done is run up tons of accolades and excellent number. and won a national championship in Vanderbilt and all the accolades and stuff is great. And even the numbers, if you just look at the scout the stat line, very, very, very good numbers. We need to look at the ERA and strikeouts. And he's got one of the best sliders you know,

you're going to see out there. It's a 70 grade slider. Some might call it an 80 on the scouting scale. But really what the concern is where he's slid a little bit off of that one-one overall potential is it's still a fastball game when you're a pitcher. Yeah. We're seeing less and less of the fastball usage in the majors these days with a lot more breaking ball pitches. But still, it's the pitch that's going to be used the most, no matter who you are really up and down any level in trying to be a pro in today's game.

And his fastball has been really inconsistent. It's been at times, 97, 98 miles an hour with a ton of late life. I saw him in February, I think it was actually early March. And I was on a really cold night. And it was 96, 97. and he was just blowing guys away with it. And he was just toying with hitters with his breaking and off speed pitches. But then there's other times like what we've seen in the last probably two months now,

where it's 91 to 93, 94. And that alone isn't bad. But when you've seen it really good and now it's not so good and he's not commanding it very well, it's not really a good command pitch for him. It's he's using it more as a set up pitch for his secondaries. It's just not the right. profile, the right archetype of a top level pitcher that you want to be taking in the first couple handful of picks.

And I think because of the inconsistency of the fastball, that's why he could be, very well could be in play for the Diamondbacks. I don't know at this point when you're looking at a team right now in 2021, it's got, you know, one of the worst records, I think the worst record in baseball, knowing that it's, it's only going to get worse and next year are going to be, you know, picking even higher. is this a guy who you think in two, three years is going to be one of the three best players on our team as we start to build towards another championship level team? As a starting pitcher who's going to maybe, you know, show up 30 to 35 times a year, I don't know. I would think I would rather have a position player when you're trying to restart, you know, that championship level team.

So I wouldn't put it past them, but I don't think it's probably the direction they're going to go. Yeah. Yeah. And especially we bake in sort of the. injury factor. I'm sort of with you there. And I know there's, you know, I think kind of the dominant narrative has built so much buzz around a guy like Rocker, right? And so it does seem like there's a little bit of a gap maybe in some senses around the, maybe the prevailing narrative versus what, you know, people like yourself have seen over the last few months. I do want to also ask you,

you know, the Diamondbacks don't have a competitive balance round A pick this year, which means their second round pick will be their second choice, which is the 42nd overall pick. You know, once we get that far, I mean, all bets are off to some degree, right? I think this is where we start to see some things pop up that may be surprised folks. But is there anyone sort of in that late 30s, early 40s range that you've seen, like anyone that has maybe just caught your eye who maybe stands out to you as someone who, you know, fans might kind of earmark and keep an eye on just when that second round

does come around. Sure. And you brought up real quickly, South Freilich, who was mentioned probably earlier on in some earlier in the spring. If he was a guy that the organization really liked and he's a nice player, let me just say this, he's a nice player. I'm not the biggest fan of him. but he would be the type of player where you could potentially cut a deal at the sixth pick,

you know, you get like an extra million or $2 and then use that in your second round pick to try and lure one of the bigger high school names that might go back to school. That possibility exists. It's just it's such a weird inflection point. Like I said, with this tier of players that you're really going to have to probably pick someone who's further down in the teens or 20s as far as,

players who are expected to go in that range to be able to get them far enough ahead to save that much money. So I don't think it's a likely scenario. It's not impossible, though. So let me just say that. So if you're not going to cut a deal in the first round and you're not going to use that money to save in the second round or the comp B round, you know, we've seen in the past with the debacks that they do like to go again for those college high level producers, guys from big time programs who even if there's been some, you know, history with injuries or whatever.

Just like I like Slice Chaconi last year as a big guy, big projectable pitcher at the University of Miami, you know, those are the type of players that they've really built depth in the organization with with these types of prospects in the draft. I wouldn't be surprised if they go in that range potentially with a guy like maybe Ryan Cusick, if he falls that far from Wake Forest, throws 100 miles an hour and has a big power breaking ball. but that's kind of about it. He's a big 6'5 righty out of Wake Forest,

but that lack of a third pitch, he has some command issues at time. He could be a guy that way they want to take him and try and mold him and refine him a little bit better. They could even, if he makes it this far too, another kind of wild card pick out of LSU who had Tommy John's surgery,

but at one point this spring was the top 10 pick is right-handed Jaden Hill. So he'd been an interesting guy because you're not going to obviously be able to see him, you know, on the field for probably the next 12 to 13 months. But he would be quite the wild card to take a little chance there if he falls that far. Any other players that could be on the position side, it could be like an Ethan Wilson out of South Alabama,

who's one of the best offensive collegiate players going into the year. He had some injury issues. And so that kind of held them down a little bit, but nothing too serious. I think it was like an ankle or foot injury. other guys potentially, let me think here. Judge Fabian out of Florida, who's been up and down all over the place. He also was thought of as a top 10 player coming into the year, but just had a lot of strikeout issues.

Still has some really loud tools as far as home run power goes, and he's a very good defender and center. I'm not really sure where he's going to go because he could be a top 15 pick if a team really believes that the hit tool can be good enough, but he also could slide that far to 42. to where, hey, that could be an interesting value pick for the debacks as well. Keenan, this has been really helpful. Yeah, thank you so much for hopping on with us and taking the time.

Hey, before we let you go, how can our listeners follow you and sort of keep on, keep up with your draft coverage here over the next week or so? Sure. We're going to have our top 50 draft prospects released at baseball prospectus.com. That's on the Friday before the draft, which is the 19th. I believe. So you'll be able to kind of stack up where the prospects are, at least from my standpoint. I've seen probably about 75% of the players that are going to go in the top 70 or 80 picks.

So I have a pretty good feel about where that's going and talk to a lot of scouts. So we're feeling pretty good about that. And then you can follow me at Twitter at Kenan Lamb. And check out the YouTube page too. Got a lot of videos there. So whenever you guys pick at 6, you want to know, what does this guy look like? what does Khalil Watson look like or Brady Howes? I got lots of video.

Just search for my name, Keenan Lamb and baseball perspectives on YouTube. Awesome. Well, yeah, thanks so much, Keenan. Yeah, and to all our listeners out there, that officially wraps up everything we have here for the 31st episode of the Rattle Podcast. We really appreciate you joining in. Be sure to keep it locked over to our Twitter page. You can find us at the RattleAZ.

You haven't given us a follow already. And, yeah, we'll be back here in another week with another show. about the 2021 Arizona Diamondbacks.