PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Ep. 33: Analyzing the D-backs' Draft with Keanan Lamb

Episode Date: July 14, 2021

Baseball Prospectus draft guru Keanan Lamb returns to the show to recap what the D-backs got in the 2021 First-Year Player Draft. We also answer some listener questions, including why the team passed on renowned pitcher Kumar Rocker. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome in to episode 33 of the Rattle Podcast. My name is Jesse Friedman and I am flying solo here today, ladies and gentlemen. My usual co-host, Jeff Weiser, the one the only, is out on vacation, having fun with friends and family right now. We wish him all the best wherever he is. He tried to give me his itinerary at one point, but frankly, there were so many moving parts. I couldn't really even begin to tell you where he is. right now. But all the best, Jeff, we'll be excited to have him back on the show next week. But in the meantime, here in this episode should be fun, should be good. We're going to be

joined again by Keenan Lamb from baseball prospectus. He was on the show a couple weeks ago to give us an MLB draft preview for the Diamondbacks. He's going to come back and sort of finish the job here and give us his analysis of what the Diamondbacks did in the draft. That's just a couple minutes away here. So, yeah, he is the MLB draft guru over a baseball prospectus knows his stuff. So I'm excited to be joined by him here in a few minutes. For now, a couple of things I want to touch on before we go all out with the draft and Jordan Lawler and all of the hype surrounding some of these names, the Diamondbacks

picked up. The Diamondbacks won a series last week. And I feel like we need to take a moment and appreciate that. you're at the beginning of this episode. It was a three game set against the Colorado Rockies during the middle of last week, a home series. They took two out of three. They lost the last game nine to three.

So they actually got outscored in the series if you total up the runs. But nonetheless, a series win is a series win. The Diamondbacks will take anything they can get at this point. And the craziest thing of all about it is that do you guys realize how long it's been since the Diamondbacks have won a series. I know it's been a rough couple months. You might think, oh, you know, there was that one, that one three games set with, you know, whatever team that they somehow pulled out two out of three.

It hasn't happened since their series also against the Rockies from April 29th to May 2nd. So you have to go back more than two months to find a Diamondbacks, the previous Diamondback series win. That is how long it has been. So I wanted to take some time on the front end here to pause and appreciate the first Diamondback Series win since early May. It is certainly noteworthy at this point. They actually almost got away with another series win in L.A. They won the first game of the set, and then they got completely destroyed in Game 2.

We don't have to talk about Game 2. It was 22 to 1. It was ugly. And on Sunday, they had a strong lead going into the Lerner, later innings of the game. And unfortunately, the bullpen blew up. And that was that. The Dodgers wound up taking two out of three.

But that took us to the All-Star break, which of course, the All-Star game yesterday on Tuesday, the home run derby on Monday. I personally am of the belief that baseball's all-star festivities are second to none in professional sports. I think it easily trumps anything that the NFL has to offer, no questions there. The slam dunk contest, the three-point contest and the NBA are fun, but frankly, the NBA's All-Star game is just horrible. Nobody plays defense.

Major League Baseball's All-Star game is like still a viable, like, sporting event where people are like trying their best and it's not like super one-sided on offense or defense or anything. So I really enjoy watching the All-Star game from year to year. I thought yesterday's was fun. The American League, of course, wins again. They have now won eight consecutive All-Star games. Frankly, I don't know how to explain that because I feel like maybe there was a time

where the American League clearly just had better players than the National League. But in my mind, those days seem to be mostly over, just kind of casually comparing rosters. It didn't seem like there was a super dramatic advantage one way or another. But obviously, there's probably something here if the American League has won eight consecutive games. And they continued that yesterday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

was the MVP, the youngest player ever to do so. He had a monster home run almost 470 feet early in the game, a two-run shot. That was really, so it's always fun seeing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a home run. Let's face it. Beyond that, the only other thing I'll say about the All-Star festivities is that is that, is that micing players just doesn't really work, in my opinion. We're not going to dwell on this here in this show.

We are at Diamondbacks podcast first and foremost, but I just want it to be known. I don't really appreciate the miced-up moments. I think there's a couple players maybe that it works with where they're able to keep a pretty free-flowing conversation going. But a lot of times it's just maybe a little bit strange. especially at the end of the game, poor Liam Hendricks didn't think he was miced.

He thought it wasn't working. And soon enough, he was like cussing on national television and somehow Fox didn't anticipate that would happen. So that was sort of a mess toward the end of the game. But nonetheless, all in all, another successful All-Star break for Major League Baseball.

A lot of players opting out, which is a story in and of itself. But I think it, you know, it opened the doors for some other guys. It was fun to see Taiwan Walker in there, who was one of those guys who was able to get in because of some other players dropping out.

And Eduardo Escobar was one for one, ladies and gentlemen. He has a perfect batting average in the MLV All-Star game in his career. So that's also kind of fun. But beyond that, let's go ahead and transition now into the draft itself. And this is what Keenan is going to join the show for. obviously the diamondbacks they sort of got their man here Jordan Lawler the shortstop they got him at the sixth overall pick a lot of people didn't think he would fall that far

some people had him as early as even the number one overall pick that was not an unreasonable thing for the Pittsburgh Pirates to have considered taking him number one overall he is he has that kind of talent that kind of a ceiling he is committed to Vanderbilt, which will be interesting. The Diamondbacks will have to woo him slightly, but hopefully the slot money is good enough for him there. I think it's somewhere between $5 and $6 million is the slot for the sixth overall pick. So the Diamondbacks, I think they feel pretty confident they're going to be able to sign him. But he's just an exciting young player.

He's about as high of a ceiling of a prospect as this Diamondbacks organization is seen in quite a while, probably right up there with Corbyn Carroll, a guy who unfortunately this year, me and Jeff have talked about it in past shows with the shoulder injury and everything. We're not going to see Corbyn Carroll again until probably next season. But this is a guy who's sort of along those lines in terms of his talent level and his ceiling. I think he's 19 years old right now out of high school. And if they can pull off signing in, which I think they will, he's an exciting.

player. He has all five tools. He should be able to stay at shortstop. He's got great hands, great range, good arm. He's really the kind of guy that is really, you know, you could envision being a consistent all-star someday in the future. Hopefully he signs. So fingers crossed, he signs. Definitely an exciting. Once they hopefully clear that hurdle, it should be really fun to watch him progress through the system over the years. But without further ado, I'm going to welcome someone on to the show who knows more about the draft than I do. Lamb, the MLB draft expert from baseball prospectus, will join us here on the other side of a quick break.

We're going to hear a quick word from our sponsors over at Draft Kings, which will be delivered by yours truly. And then on the other side of the break, you'll hear us talk with Keenan Lamb on breakdown, the Diamondbacks acquisition of Jordan Lawler, passing on Kumar Rocker, which I'm sure is something that's on some of your minds and a whole lot more relating to the MLB drafts. That's all on the other side of the break. Stick with us here. We'll be right back.

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See draftkings.com for details. Welcome back into the second half of episode 33 of the Rattle Podcast. Jesse Friedman back here with you. And joining me here in the second half of the show is a familiar name on the Rattle Podcast. We just had him on a couple episodes ago. His name is Keenan Lamb. Keenan is the senior MLB draft writer and amateur scouting coordinator at baseball prospectus. And Keenan, I know it's been a big few days for you here with the MLB draft now in our rearview mirror.

And we're excited to have you on here today to talk about what the Diamondbacks did in this year's MLB draft. Keenan, first of all, welcome back to the show. We're happy to have you here once again. Thank you, Jesse. Appreciate it. Yeah, let's just start talking about 2022. too. Like who's going to be the mock draft, you know, top 10, you know, let's just go ahead and start getting into it. Might as well, right?

Yeah, it's a little too early, a little too early. But yeah, yeah, we have a lot of talk about. You're around, right? Keenan, it really, the moment the 2021 draft is behind us, suddenly you've got tons of work to do on 2022, I imagine. Well, what's crazy this year, because of the delayed date of the draft, usually it's like the first week of June and now they try to coincide it with, with the all. Star game this year is that you have one of the bigger summer showcase events, the perfect game national event that's happening starts today in St. Petersburg, Florida.

You're going to have literally hundreds of scouts and evaluators and college programs just at Tropicana Field for the next six days. So it's crazy that literally the draft happens and then today you start getting going with 2022. Yeah, it's crazy. Well, well, let's jump right into it. I know Diamondbacks fans are pretty cautiously optimistic, I would say. Obviously, taking a high school kid, there's a little bit of risk involved with pretty much every guy you take out of high school.

But the Diamondbacks seem to be pretty satisfied with the man they got at number six overall, Jordan Lawler, the shortstop out of Jesuit College Prep High School. From what I know, Keenan, and granted, I know very little about MLB draft prospects compared to, the knowledge that you have. But he seems to be pretty well regarded around the game. I've heard a few people say that maybe he could have gone first overall, just sort of depending on on team's needs. And he winds up falling to the diamond backs at number six. Keenan, give us an idea. What are the diamond backs getting in Jordan Lawler at number six? He was, I feel okay saying this, a consensus top three prospect industry-wide. Some people had a little bit different order, whether it was, you know, Marcelo Mayer.

Some even thought Jack Reiter might be the top prospect. And even some might even thought Henry Davis, who did go first overall to the Pirates, could have been the top prospect. I personally had Jordan Lawler first on my overall big board to begin the draft this year. So I think that him getting to number six, where at worst, the industry thinks he's maybe like the third best, prospect, and I think he's the first best prospect, getting to number six with the debacks is a major win. There is a little bit of a caveat, though, because he was expecting that type of bonus money in the top three picks or so. So with the diamondbacks having, you know, five million change to be able to offer him for slot money, they probably are going to have to woo him a little bit with overslop money

to be able to have him actually sign on the dotted line. He's a little bit older as far as high schoolers go for this class. He turned 19 a couple months ago. And so he would be draft eligible in just two years if he were to go to Vanderbilt, one of the best baseball programs in the country, and come back and potentially be the first overall pick in 2023. So there is a little bit of movement still left to figure out there. Yeah, yeah.

For obviously Vanderbilt is it's really no. no question around the game. Branderbilt is about as good as it gets when it comes to college baseball. So obviously an enticing offer there. The Diamondbacks in some of their post-draft interviews, they certainly sounded confident that they could bring Jordan Lawler in on a contract. And obviously, I mean, that goes without saying you're probably not going to take a high six overall if you don't think you can sign him.

But yeah, it seems like a really exciting player and probably about his high ceiling of of a draft pick that the Diamondbacks have in quite some time. Sort of to follow up on that, Keenan, do you think that obviously we're sort of always following top 30 prospect lists for the Diamondbacks and kind of seeing how things shake out? Do you think if Jordan Lawler were to sign that he would immediately shoot to the top of that list? It'd be really close between him and Corbyn Carroll, even with his shoulder injury that has him,

out for the year. I thought Corbyn Carroll was trending upwards to being, you know, one of the top 15 or 20 prospects in all of baseball. So Jordan Lawler probably is going to be pretty close to that when we look towards maybe our offseason list when us at baseball perspective start putting that together. I certainly think he's got that kind of upside. It's definitely a different type of skill set than, say, Corbyn Carroll. But I think it's, it'll be, it's one and one. and really if you were to ask a lot of people.

Yeah, well, we'll be excited to see how things shake out there. And obviously, Corbyn Carroll is a name that we've spent quite a bit of time talking about lately on the show as a guy who's pretty exciting. Hopefully, he can get things back together with his shoulder soon enough. All right, well, we want to kind of stick here with the first few rounds. I'm not going to have you give us a scouting report of every single guy. The Diamondback stuck in the draft because the MLV we draft is long. and we'd be here all day. But if we could just go rounds two through five,

the Diamondbacks took shortstop, Ryan Bliss out of Auburn. Then they took a right-handed pitcher, Jacob Steinmetz, right-handed pitcher Chad Patrick, and then catcher Caleb Roberts. So if you want to do just one at a time or however you want to go about it, Ryan Bliss, the first guy on that list, what are the Diamondbacks getting in Ryan Bliss

and other shortstop out of Auburn? Ryan Bliss is an excellent college performer. he's a guy where if you just watched him for a game, you really wouldn't get a very good idea of what he can do because he is a bit undersized. He's like probably in that 5-8-5-9 range. Yeah. He can handle shortstop,

but he's probably going to move to second base, I would think eventually, if not soon, probably later on down the road. But he's very adept, very good athletically up to middle. And he's got kind of a funky swing, too. It's someone from his size It's usually you consider like me more of a contact hitter like you know slash and dash But no he actually has some pretty good pop and a A swing path that kind of goes uphill a little bit

So he does make a whole lot of contact and he actually has some good home run power as well So I think he's a very solid pick especially when you do have to throw in that little wrinkle You know if they're going to have to pay a little bit more to Jordan Lawler can they maybe squeeze a little bit less at a Ryan Bliss? But I think that was a very good pick in the second round. One guy you skipped over, though, was in the competitive round B. It was Adrian Del Castillo, catcher out of Miami. And he was a guy coming into the season thought to be like a top 10, top 15 pick.

And I saw him for a weekend series up in North Carolina. I didn't see it. I really didn't see it. And clearly he had fallen down. most people preferenceless throughout the spring. He's supposed to be one of the better college hitters in the class. And he does have some good hitting ability, good hands, stays inside the ball, likes to go to the opposite field.

But the power really isn't there. It's a very flat swing. It's not being done with the intent to do a lot of damage to it. It's more just to put the ball on play. And when you're kind of a bigger, stockier catcher, like, yeah, that doesn't really play up to your strengths too well. You're just going to run into a whole lot of groundouts. And, you know, that just doesn't do very well for you. And he's an okay catcher. He's, he's basically a bigger version of a Paven Smith. And at first base, if you've already got a guy

like there, like I just don't know how much value that really could add to your organization. I imagine he's going to start as a catcher. We'll see how far he goes and see if he does grow into some more power eventually. Next in the list is round three, Jacob Steinman. He's a high schooler out of Florida, and he's got a really interesting story. He potentially could be the first Orthodox Jew to play in the major leagues. Yeah. So that could be problematic in some ways. And I don't want to say problematic in a bad way, but that religion, they don't aren't

supposed to be performing or doing any sort of work on Saturday being the Sabbath. And so he's already commented saying that he's willing to pitch on some. Saturdays, but he is not allowed to take any sort of technology or rides to wherever he is. So let's just say, let's just fast forward like five years from now. He's with the Diamondbacks. They don't travel on Saturdays. You know, every team will travel, you know, like Thursday night going on a Friday for a weekend series. But let's say he's scheduled to pitch that Saturday.

he would have to walk from the team hotel to the stadium. That's how he would observe the Sabbath. So no taking a team bus, no taking an Uber, nothing like that. So it's very interesting how he is very observant of his faith and it's very admirable and how he wants to make it a career of this at the same time and have those two things work. So from a physical standpoint, he's a monster. He's 6'5. He's like 220 as a high school senior.

a fastball that can run up in the mid-90s, feel for a breaking ball and a change-up. There's a lot of projectability there, but he is pretty raw, all things considered. And when you look into the next two that you mentioned, Chad Patrick and Caleb Roberts, those were two of the bigger, what I would call, underslot guys that they were looking to find some savings with

so they could, in fact, go after Jordan Lawler. You're not going to get a whole lot because those picks don't carry a ton of slot value to them. But both those guys weren't really seen as like a high target players that were going to be found in that fourth and fifth round. Caleb Roberts actually played a lot more outfield at North Carolina this year. And I saw him in that same series with Adrian Del Castillo. He's got a good feel to hit. He played a little bit of catcher as a freshman.

He's got a really good arm. I think that the debacks listing him as a catcher in the draft. is a little interesting. They're probably going to see if they can convert him a little bit and see how far he goes, knowing that he's a very good offensive player. And maybe they can find something to where that offensive ability can play up behind the catcher position and develop those skills. It sounds like maybe Jordan Lawler is kind of the obvious pick here once again.

But I'm curious, Keenan, what would you say out of all the guys, the diamond backs drafted here in the last few days? who would you say is sort of their biggest steal, like a guy who people would never have expected to be available when they took him and they were able to nab him anyway. Well, the guy that I like the most, again, we'll just exempt Jordan Luller because he's the clear choice for the answer. But actually their sixth round pick, Luke Albright, at a Ken State. I think he was my favorite pick and I think one of the bigger steals in this draft because

he was a guy coming off a fall and winter ball from Kent State was thinking to have some first round buzz to him. Some scouts really liked the body and his repertoire, four pitch mix, fastball slider curveball change up. Fastball can low 90s. It can scrape 95 at times. Here's one thing that I noticed a little bit this spring that I hadn't noticed in some of the video that I had seen last year was that his, his, his delivery had gotten a little bit more, when I say violent, that's kind of the catch-all word. There had been a little bit more effort in the delivery to the point where his head was whacking very hard to the first base side. And when you tend to do that, it really tends to hamper your command

and control of your pitches. You'd like to see some guy who's more in tune with their body, flowing downhill with not a whole lot of wasted movement. And that head just jacked. to the side one way, it really, it's, for one, it's not good for your neck. And two, it's not really good for your arm path either because it's going to have that flail out more and you're going to end up pitching away from your target a lot more. But I think that still, the makings there with Luke Albright are a guy who could be a mid-rotation, back of the rotation guy, which if you're getting in the sixth round, like, that's a heck of a value.

So I really like that pick. I know we're going to get into some questions from our listeners here at the Rattle in a moment, but I probably could have predicted this question was going to be asked, and sure enough it was, everyone wants to know why the Diamondbacks decided to pass on Kumar Rocker. Of course, he wound up ultimately falling to number 10. The New York Mets wound up with him. But Kumar, we were still very much in play for the Diamondbacks at number six.

And I know we talked when we had you on last time about just the dynamics with his game and how maybe falling was something we really should have expected here. But Keenan to Diamondbacks fans who might be a little disappointed, maybe they knew Kumar Rocker's name a little bit more than they know Jordan Lawler's name. What would you tell those people? Well, I think this was a little bit tougher to track, right? So before we talked about the theoretical fall to where Kumar Rocker is, in your laps and you have to make that decision, right? Well, they had another guy fall into their laps with Jordan Lawler. And I wonder, another guy who ended up kind of falling and would have been a very good pick for them and might have been their pick to begin with had Lawler not

been there. It was Khalil Watson, a shortstop out of North Carolina. He ended up going all the way to pick number 15 with the Marlins. So the Diamondbacks had their choice of a bunch of really good players. Now, let's say hypothetically, Lawler and Watson are both off the board. Well, then there's a little bit better case to be made because those two position players have amazing potential moving down the road as being everyday players. Kumar Rocker as a guy who will only pitch for you 30 to 33 times a year as opposed to a guy who could play all 162 games. That's kind of the difference and how much a guy could contribute to your team year in and year out. I thought I wasn't surprised that he fell as far as he did.

I thought that the Mets were a very good place for him because of what they have in their system and what they are looking for as far as winning in the very near future. I think he's probably got a chance to come up maybe next year, early 2023 at the latest. That's not really in the same timetable for the Diamondback. So I think they made the Loller getting to them at six was. in my opinion, a slam dunk choice, and it would have been silly for them not to take him. Well, in light of that, I'm curious, how would you just kind of looking at the Diamondbacks draft as a whole? Obviously, there's so many, so many guys that they suck, there's 20 rounds is sort of a

long deal. We've only scratched the surface. But if you had to do the sort of impossible task of putting a letter grade on this draft for the Diamondbacks, what do you think that would be, Keenan? It's kind of a two grade answer, right? So the first grade I would give is an incomplete because what we're looking at in rounds 11 through 20, what they did yesterday. It took some good college performers. Tim Tawa out of Stanford comes to mind. Even a guy like Shane months is a very well-rounded catcher out of Wake Forest. But they selected some high school players who were thought to be like at worst date.

two players and you wonder if they're going to be able to get them to sign or if they just pick them in the hope that maybe they could coax them into signing with the debacks. So like Davis Diaz was their 12th round pick. Drake Bernardo out of IMG Academy in Florida is a shortstop prospect. I think he might be a tougher sign. He was picked in the 17th round. And actually Eric Hammond, right-handed pitcher out of Texas, another high schooler. He was in the 19th round.

for them to be able to sign those guys would be very impressive, but it's also highly unlikely, I would say. But if they were to be able to pick off like one or two of them, that's excellent. That takes your grade from an incomplete to like at least a solid like B plus in my mind. Right now, if you don't take those, if those guys aren't there and you take them out of the equation, it's a real solid B draft. They addressed some high potential guys that they've desperately. really need in the organization that could hopefully pan out in big ways down the road.

You also got some good college performers that are going to get there a little bit quickly. They can stabilize the farm system a little bit better. And I think it was overall very good draft. Moving into our listener questions here, Dback's facttoids on Twitter was curious. Is Elijah Green a lock at 1-1 in 2022? And who are others near the top of the board for next year? Unfortunately, Keenan, we're in a position here with the Diamondbacks where we're sort of already looking to the draft next year, given the state of this team this season and how things have gone. And with how things look so far, they seem to be sort of a lock to at least be picking at number one overall.

And, yeah, Elijah Green is sort of the big name we've all heard. What do you have to say about him? Yeah, if you can't enjoy the present, you've got to look forward to the future, right? And with the debacks, yeah, they're going to be picking high. next year. And I can't recall maybe the last name that we tried to do this with. Maybe it was Adley Rushman, who was the top overall prospect in baseball now, according to our rankings at baseball prospectus. But going into his draft year, when the Orioles were the first overall pick, that the whole joke was being, play badly for Adley, you know, like Andrew Luck in the NFL,

it was suck for luck, you know, teams trying to play so poorly that they get that pick. I can't of a good one for Elijah Green, but it would behoove the debacks to get the number one overall pick next year by having the worst record. I've talked to some scouts, some evaluators, even some national cross checkers. He's entering the territory of once a decade, once of a generation type player. So he's a guy who I had more than one scout tell me if he were in this year's draft, he would have been the first overall pick. We're talking about a high school junior.

He's just incredibly advanced, physically mature. He's got incredible power to all fields, athletically gifted. He's moved around the outfield a little bit just because he plays at a school that has a ton of top talent at IMG Academy. He's probably a center fielder. He might move into the corner if he bokes up a little bit more as he ages. But he's a special, special player. And so if the D-backs end up clenching the worst record in baseball this season, you should throw a party because you have a chance of picking maybe a once-in-a-generation type player, a guy like a Bryce Harper.

Wow. Yeah, they use that good. Wow. I was not aware. That is good to know. Now we, I'm going to have to give Jeff an assignment to come up with a catchphrase for Elijah Green. And I don't know, I don't know what he can come up with, but we'll have to see there. Yeah, beyond that, it looks like we had a listener asked about favorite picks in the draft,

which we've sort of covered our bases on. Alex wanted a report on Steinmetz, which I know we've kind of already touched on, particularly just his readiness for the major leagues down the road, obviously with a guy at a high school that's always kind of a million dollar question. But do you have anything to add on Steinmetz and just his ability to move quickly through the minors and what his journey to the major leagues might look like. Yeah, he actually moved, I believe it was from New York. I know it was someplace like a northern environment,

and he moved down to Florida this past year. So he is being exposed more to the game of baseball, becoming more of a year-round thing for him. So there's a lot of raw potential there. But to consider him potentially moving quickly, I would throw that out the door right now. That's not the biggest concern. I think just getting him in camp,

I think you're going to see him exclusively at the Arizona complex this late summer and fall. We'll see what having a full year of training and coaching with the Diamondbacks player development staff is going to look like. But he's a big kid. He has some really good pitches to him already. It's just a matter of growing into that body and figuring things out and refining his his arsenal altogether. So don't expect much from Jacob Steinmetz in the next, I would say, at minimum four years. Well, let's talk back in 2025 and see where he's at.

Ken, we really appreciate your time today once again. Before we let you go, how can people follow your work? Sure. Baseball prospectus.com. We've got all kinds of stuff there. We're really to the draft with the top 50 prospects and where they went. and where each prospect slots in as far as their top list for each team goes coming up today. And then also Twitter at Canaan Lamb and YouTube.

You can find me there. Please like and subscribe the videos there. You can find a lot of Jordan Lawler video and Ryan Bliss and Adrian Delcastio. You can find that all at my YouTube page. Perfect. Thanks so much, Keenan. We really appreciate your time today. Thank you.

Appreciate it.