PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Ep. 6: Kevin Cron's Scouting Report, Predicting the 2019 OD Rotation, & More

Episode Date: May 24, 2019

We give a detailed breakdown of call-up Kevin Cron's background as a prospect, and discuss whether or not Yasmany Tomás could be next to get the call. We also attempt to predict the 2019 Opening Day rotation, discuss AZ's approach at the trade deadline, and explain why a five-game losing streak isn't the end of the road. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to episode six of the Rattle Podcast. As always, I'm your host, Jesse Friedman, along with my good friend Jeff Weiser, who is always here with us on the Rattle Podcast. Ladies and gentlemen, as we all know, it has been a bit of a rough go for the Arizona Diamondbacks over the last couple of weeks. Not long ago, this team was 20 and 13, and you look up at the standings right now. They are 25 and 25. They have dropped 12 of their last 7.

games and Jeff all of a sudden the Diamondbacks after getting pretty comfortable in that second place slot right behind the Dodgers in the NLS they are now looking up at the San Diego Padres who just completed a three game sweep over the Diamondbacks it was painful to watch for a lot of people I think the Diamondbacks lost a couple of pretty tough one-run games and timely home runs on the side of the opposition buried the Diamondbacks late and Jeff by all accounts This is a team that is really taken a pretty big step back over the last couple of weeks. Yeah, it's been a really, really tough period for them. The bats have gone quiet.

And, you know, on the days that the bats have shown up, the pitching hasn't been so good. So, you know, it's been kind of interesting. Like, you can see the fight in the team. They're definitely trying. It's not like an effort issue. And I don't think that will ever be the case under Toro Lavello. but it just isn't clicking and it's not clicking at the right times and it's it's been a really really gnarly stretch and i think it doesn't help uh that so many of those games that they've

lost have been um you know one run games i mean they were on a on a streak there starting last sunday uh running through tuesday of this week of losing three consecutive one run games and right uh like what's the record look like if they if they pull those out. You know, it's just, it's a really, really, really, you know, unfortunate scenario where they're just coming up a tiny bit short, which, like, makes it hurt even more. Yeah, absolutely. And this is a, we were talking before the show, this is kind of a trend that, at least I personally have noticed with the Diamondbacks. I know I probably mentioned this on the show a few times last year, where the Diamondbacks just go through these stretches where they can't buy themselves a close

game. At the end of the seventh or the eighth inning, it's close, and you just kind of have the feeling that this team is not going to come out on top. And on the flip side, every game that the Diamondbacks win in these kinds of stretches, it seems like the only way that they know how to win is just to completely blow out the other team. And that has really been the case as of late. If you look at the Diamondbacks' last three victories that they've had, the last one, which, of course, they've lost five in a row, so you have to go back to the 17th of this month, which is a week ago. On the 17th of this month, the Diamondbacks beat the Giants seven to nothing. Their win prior to that was just the game directly before that.

They won back-to-back games. That was an 11-1 victory over the Pirates. And then the first game in that series against the Pirates was the win that they had before that, which they won nine to three. So you look at those three games, and over the course of those three games, the Diamondbacks outscored their opponents 27 to 4 if you add up those numbers. And then you look at all these games that the Diamondbacks have lost. The last game of the Padres, they lost by three. You mentioned the stretch of three consecutive one-run games.

Pretty much every game the Diamondbacks are losing right now is a close game. And every game that they win, they're just completely blowing the opposition away. And so what you wind up with is a team that is 25 and 25, yet, still has a pretty decent run differential of plus 25, I believe it is right now. And that's still good for a pretty decent mark in the game of baseball, certainly above average. But all of these one-run games, all of these close games the Diamondbacks are losing have really just combined to take a toll on this team.

And suddenly, you're looking up, as I mentioned, at the San Diego Padres, who are now in second place. Yeah, you nailed it. I mean, when they've won, they've won big, and when they've lost. They've lost close. I don't really know what to make of that other than, you know, to say perhaps it suggests that the team is still pretty good. Right. You know, if they were winning close and losing big, I might feel very differently about it.

Right. But, you know, as it stands, like, you know, I'm looking at Fangraphs. They have their, like, Pythagorean record at 27 and 23. And then using the base runs framework, they're also 27 and 23. by looking at those, you know, at those measures there. So, you know, you could argue the team has, you know, been a little bit unlucky, you know, and maybe some of that comes down to, you know, ineffective bench pieces. Maybe some of that comes down to some relievers that, you know,

haven't been able to quite get the job done. And maybe that's kind of where it stands. We're like, if you look at the lineup on its face, it's not bad. If you look at the rotation on its face, it's not bad. but once you start to get kind of to the fringes, maybe they fall off a little bit. I mean, the sort of underbelly of bullpents in general is generally not very stellar. And bench guys are bench guys for a reason,

but maybe the dime backs are losing a little bit there. I'm not sure. Or maybe it's just thinking about base runs. The base runs framework is really built upon the sequencing of events because you can't really control necessarily in what order certain events happen in a baseball game. And so if we try to normalize those, you know, maybe things look a little better. But as it stands now, you know, maybe they've just, you know, not quite had the timing that would be most beneficial. I mentioned the run differential. It's actually plus 23, not plus 25.

So I want to get that correction out there. But you look at the, you look at the National League as a whole. Somehow the Cincinnati Reds are better at plus 25, which is, which is puzzling. That's another Five games under 500. Yeah, and I don't think they've really been close to touching 500 all season long. They've kind of been in the gutter of the NL Central for the entire season so far. But them aside, you've also got the Cubs, of course. You've got the Dodgers, and you've got the Phillies, who are just at plus 28. So, I mean, altogether, the Diamondbacks are still fifth in the National League in run differential.

And I think that, as you mentioned before, I think that does give us some reason to think that although this Diamondbacks team, is going through a rough patch. I don't think this is, this isn't the kind of regression to the mean that makes you think, okay, this is the actual team. You know, this is the actual team that the diamond backs are.

I think there's definitely reason to believe that the diamond backs are probably something like the team that we've been watching for the majority of the season, up to about two weeks ago, a team that was consistently above 500. We would categorize them as a good above average baseball team, probably not a serious contender when it comes to the postseason,

but I still think we have reason to believe that the Diamondbacks are an above average baseball team. And I don't think for fans who are concerned about this five game losing streak, about dropping 12 out of 17 games, which is, you know, five and 12, it's obviously a pretty intimidating thing to look at. I still think we have good reason to believe that the Diamondbacks are, are destined to put up a respectable season as far as we can tell at this point. Yeah, I would agree.

I mean, I don't know what that's worth in the end. I mean, and that's something that we can revisit, you know, as the season pushes on. And if that's kind of where they find themselves, it's like, hey, look, like I think right now they currently have kind of the eighth best playoff odds in the National League, which with only 15 teams, you know, kind of puts them right in the middle. If only this for the NBA, right? Right. No kidding.

I want to talk about the NBA, my trailblazers. Oh, gosh, dang. But no, you're totally right. I mean, they're going to be just kind of like right there nipping at the heels, but maybe on the outside looking in, and we can have that discussion down the road about, you know, how much that's really worth. I mean, it's nice that there's a competitive team on the field.

It's nice that they're fun to watch. What does that do for the long term? You know, that's yet to be seen. And it's interesting because, you know, you brought up a point. You're totally right. this is kind of what we expected. This is, you know, more or less like what we thought was going to happen when you looked at this team.

So, yeah, I think they'll remain competitive. I really would not be surprised if they finish the season over 500, you know, provided there is no fire sale mid-season. And I wouldn't be surprised if that still leaves them like a few games out of the wildcard. I think the thing that has really started to keep fans going, fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks is the fact that yesterday it was announced that the Diamondbacks have officially called up Kevin Crone, who is a third base, probably maybe first base at the Major League level prospect.

I guess we can call him a prospect. We'll get into that in a second. Crone is 26 years old, but what you got to know about this guy is PCL aside. We know this is a league where pretty much everyone hits, you know, 300 and hits 25 home runs, it seems. But this is a guy who is completely dominated the Pacific Coast League this season to the tune of a 339 batting average. He is a 437 on base.

He is slugging a ridiculous 800. And he leads all of professional baseball, not just the minor leagues, not just AAA, and including Major League Baseball, he leads all of professional baseball with both 21 home runs and 62 RBIs. Jeff, my question to you, I know you have a lot of experience, analyzing prospects, trying to project guys into the future with a guy who's 26 years old and in AAA and was drafted in the 14th round, you're not normally used to getting too excited about these kind of players. But at the same time, you look at these numbers, and it's pretty hard not to get excited.

Yeah, I mean, I look at Cron. Kroen is a guy that I've scouted and watched play in person, you know, for several years now. And one of the things that always amazes me about him is that he's so big. He's like 6'5, 250 pounds. He's a huge dude. Like, you could fill him out and make an offensive tackle out of him. But, you know, for as big as he is, I do feel like his hands and his swing are like pretty quick. Um, like he's got some, he's, he's not, you know, there's a reason that he can be that big and still be successful as a hitter because he's got sort of that ability to be a little twitchy and turn on the ball for his size.

Now, uh, he's not going to be, maybe it's not going to look as explosive as perhaps, Catelle Marte lunging out over the plate to, you know, pull the home run. But, um, I do think there's, you know, there's a little bit of bat speed there. Um, you know, the swing at times. you know if he can keep it short isn't too bad um so you know those are those are all positive things um i don't think there's any way he plays third base in the majors um i just i would shudder to to think about seeing that and anything other than like a complete emergency like five other guys have been injured in the same game situation um so i do think he's a first basement there. And so, you know, the question that we were kind of talking about is like, is a 26-year-old getting called up from AAA really a prospect? Yeah. And I mean, he has prospect,

you know, status, rookie eligibility. I do think he's a prospect in that sense. I mean, he does have, you know, he has a calling card. Like, he has a tool that is, you know, that rates is well above average and that's his probably his in-game power. I don't know if the hit tool technically would project at average. It may be just below. He's a well below average runner. How he throws the ball doesn't really matter because he plays for space. And so, you know, I think that the hit and the power, you know, the power is probably plus the run or the bat itself, the hit tool maybe just a touch below average. So I think it's kind of a fringy first base profile.

I don't expect him to come out and, you know, hit another, you know, 29 or 30 home runs the rest of the season in the majors. But, you know, it's really, it's a really interesting situation. I was having a conversation with a friend of mine yesterday about this. And, you know, he said, you know, looking at Chrome, one of the things you notice is that his walk rates up about, and his strikeout rate is down. about 6%. So you kind of think, okay, like maybe he's learned some plate discipline. But then I, you know, also thinking about the fact that we know that the AAA ball has been changed to

emulate the major league baseball. And if it's not exactly the same ball altogether, I think they're extremely close. And we know what major league baseballs have done, which is just fly away at epic rates. So I think that when you mix in playing games in places like Albuquerque, like Reno, you know, with that ball, you're looking at some pretty extreme run environments with an extreme run producing baseball. And he's a guy that obviously hits a lot of fly balls. So you kind of put those things together and I can see where some of the power comes from. I don't think they're all accidents, but when we talk about like his plate discipline, something that I wonder, and Jesse I'll kind of see if you think this make sense. But would you think that with those compounding factors of like some extreme run environments

in an extreme run producing baseball and more hitters being taught to hit the ball in the air? Like would you think that pitchers would attack hitters differently? Hmm. It's a good question. I mean, I think it only naturally makes sense that they would. It seems pretty naive to, you know, not adapt to the way that baseball has turned. I mean, I think it only naturally makes sense that they would. it seems pretty naive to not adapt to the way that the baseball has trended. Obviously, there's been really an influx around the game, and it seems like this has really started to stretch down to the minor league levels as well of guys just trying to get the ball up into the air as much as they possibly can.

And you mentioned Kevin Crone is a guy who hits a lot of balls in the air. That is absolutely true. And he has for his entire minor league career. He's really, hasn't really changed his approach at all this season. It's been like this for years for him. He's always been that kind of a player. But I think it's an interesting question. I think you have to think that pitchers at some point are going to adapt to the way the hitters are playing.

But on the topic of Crone, I don't think that you can necessarily attribute all of his success to those kinds of factors. I think they definitely play a certain role in the fact that his numbers have ballooned to the point that they have compared to past seasons. But at the same time, I mean, 21 home runs is more than anyone else in all of minor league baseball. You know, even compared to other guys who are also playing in this same kind of hitter-friendly environment. And so I think even though you've seen kind of across the board just about everyone improving in that way because of the hitting conditions, especially in the Pacific Coast League. I still think that Kevin Crone, at least in some sense, has really stood out just based on the numbers that he's put up this season.

And whether or not that translates to the major leagues, I think is still a very valid question. But I have to believe that, you know, even given the park factors and all of the things that he has going in his favor, you know, 21 home runs and 62 RBIs in, I believe he's probably right at 200 plate appearances, maybe a little bit less. than that, you know, to hit over 20 home runs in less than 200 played appearances in itself is really kind of an alarming accomplishment. And I almost wonder if it, to some extent, you have to look at, you know, the circumstances

that he's doing this in, but to some extent, any player who's able to do something like that, I think has to be doing something right beyond, you know, simply the advantages that are in their favor in that kind of environment. Right. Yeah, I definitely, I definitely think there's something to that. I do think that if I was a pitcher and I was watching baseballs get hit at these distances, I think I would probably attack hitters a little differently. I would hope so.

Yeah, and I think a part of that is, you know, teams have probably picked up on like, okay, this guy's like pretty like legit here, you know, in AAA. Like, let's, like if we want to walk him, we can walk in. So I think what's going to be interesting to think about is like when he starts getting thrown and more strikes and big league pitchers are like not afraid to challenge him how does he do right because i watched yesterday the the the reno aces and they're they're a good twitter follow so you should you should follow them if you're not already um tweeted a montage of all of kevin crohn's home runs and the thing that i will say that was encouraging was that he hit hung breaking balls

really far he hit fastballs up really far he hit fast balls up really far he hit he hit fastballs down and away the other way and hit them really far he hit different types of pitches in different quadrants of the strike zone to different locations in the ballpark and it wasn't just a guy sitting on one pitch trying to yank it for a home run um so that kind of stuff like makes me feel a little better you know um yeah can he replicate it you know i'm not exactly sure uh That's going to be really interesting. I thought, you know, and in this conversation I was having, I said, you know, last year, just for a fun fact check, in 106 games, Yasmani Tomas hit 14 home runs in Reno. This year, through 45 games, he's hit 16.

And his ground ball rate this season is over 50 percent. And yet he's managed to hit 16 home runs in 45 games. So, you know, I was raising the question, like, how much better do you think Yasmani Tomas is as a batter today than he was last year? And, you know, my gut would say probably not really better at all. And yet the outcomes have improved, you know, significantly. So I think there's a little bit of both happening. I think Crohn's probably gotten better as a hitter. I think he's doing some things right.

And I also think that he's been probably rewarded maybe a little more in the outcome. comes than we would traditionally see. But look, the Diamondbacks front office is not like scouring baseball reference to try to compare these numbers, right? Like they've seen enough. They know the process behind the results. And they feel comfortable enough to give it a try. And so, you know, I applaud them for that.

I mean, they're definitely like showing a willingness to, you know, try new things in order to, like, hang on to this, you know, start. of the season, which hasn't been altogether terrible and like doing what they can to sort of hold on to it and see if they can like, you know, make a little bit more out of it. I think this comes at a really good time for the Diamondbacks, a fitting time given that Christian Walker, who is taking the majority of the at-bats over at first base this season has really started to enter into a pretty significant skid in the month of May. He has an OPS just over 600, and he has struck out 27 times in 19 games, which is a pretty alarming strikeout rate for Christian Walker.

A guy who I think we all agree was probably going to strike out at a decent pace, even when he's at his best, but he hasn't really brought the same power numbers that he did in the month of April here in the month of May. So I think given the fact that Christian Walker has struggled, I think, Maybe that opens the door a little bit for Kevin Crone to potentially get some opportunity over there. You've also got Jake Lamb, in theory, waiting in the wings at some point to come back with the Major League clubs. It'll be interesting to see how they navigate that situation when it comes. But what's interesting, Jeff, is not only were Diamondbacks fans a couple days ago calling for Kevin Crone to be called up,

but they were also calling for, as you talked about a little bit, they were calling for Yasmoni. Tomas to be called up as well. And you look at his numbers for the season. He's got an OPS just under 1,000 in Reno, as you mentioned, the 16 home runs. He had that one four home run game when I believe the Reno Aces scored 25 runs. If you listeners didn't hear about this, you really got to go check the box score of the Reno Aces game on May the 20th. It's pretty impressive, lots of crooked numbers.

but not only did Tomas hit four home runs in that game but he has followed that up by homering in three consecutive games and he now has seven home runs and 13 RBIs over the last four games that he has played and he has nine hits in that span as well seven of them going over the fence in a typical Yasmani Tomas fashion so Jeff do you think that it makes sense for the Diamondbacks to as many fans have called for

Do you think it makes sense for them to potentially bring up Yasmani Tomas? Maybe it's a Blake Swihart, who I know a lot of people have been frustrated with ever since coming over for the Red Sox. I'm not sure what other openings on the roster you might be able to make for a guy like Tomas, who obviously is a bit defensively challenged. But this offense clearly needs a spark, and they have crone here. Do you think Tomas could be next? I don't.

I just think that they're, I think. they're completely out on that. I think his numbers as a whole have been obviously pretty good in AAA. I just don't think they see any upside in that opportunity. And so when you look at like, you know, he'd probably be relegated to a bench spot. So, you know, how often is he going to be going to play twice a week? He has no defensive value whatsoever. You know, I just, I don't know. I think that they would rather, like, when they make a move right to acquire a guy like Blake's part, it tells me that they are more interested in seeing what they can develop there in that regard as a asset for the future than they are in trying to bring Yasmani Tomas's like

ground balling sort of flip it the other way approach, you know, back up to the majors. And in some of those aspects, you know, like we can dig a little granularly at some of his statistics in that regard and see that, you know, he's still doing a lot of the same things that we saw when he was in the majors. He's a slow runner who hits the ball on the ground a lot. He, you know, does not really seem to pull the ball at all. He likes to sort of slap it and shoot it the other way, which for a guy of his like size, stature and power is just, you know, an awfully curious approach to begin with. really led to part of his demise so i don't really think so um i i would be i'll put it this way i'd be much more surprised to see them you know give yasmare thomas a shot than i am to see them give like kevin kron's shot because i think with kron you can say well he's done it all like

we need to see what he can do against major league pitching and you know maybe there's something there i think with thomas i think even even though he's doing what he's doing in the minors they still have a pretty good feel for what it's going to look like if they would bring them up and I just don't think that's something they're interested in. Yeah, I don't see him being the solution at all. I've always respected the Diamondbacks front office ever since Mike Hazen and Company took over in Arizona following the Dave Stewart regime. I think for them there was probably a little bit of pressure to keep Yasmani Tomas at the very minimum

on the major league roster just given the amount of money that he makes. And Mike Hazen has really shown no fear at all in saying, okay, I know this guy makes, you know, 15 plus million dollars every season. And for a relatively small market team like the Diamondbacks, that is no shortage of money, that is a decent portion of their overall payroll, which this year sits a little bit over $100 million. And he has shown no fear of saying,

you know what, if this guy doesn't give me the best chance to win day in and day out, I have no problem leaving him in the minor leagues. And I think it makes sense. And so even though I wonder along with some fans if Tomas would maybe be at least a better option on the bench than some of the guys that they do have who are getting some of those bench opportunities, I still wonder why the Diamondbacks are using three catchers. I think John Ryan Murphy seems like a great guy. He's a good defensive catcher.

He definitely has tools to potentially stay in the major leagues for a decent amount of time. But it's just hard to justify having those three catchers on this team. And you have to wonder, you know, if you give a guy like Tomas just those few at bats, even if he's not contributing on the field, it's hard to justify that, you know, things aren't going to turn at least a little bit better if you have a good. guy who's bad in theory. I think Tomas would probably be better than at least a John Ryan Murphy or maybe a Blake Swihart with how those guys have performed so far.

But at the same time, given the way that Mike Hayes and company clearly feel about Yasmani Tomas, and I think it is important note. It's probably easy for all of us to look at Tomas's numbers offensively and remember just how, and forget, excuse me, how dismal of a defender this guy really is. Yeah, yeah. You have to take that into account, absolutely. Yeah, and I think, you know, it's kind of interesting. I think about, like, with the home run environment being what it is, you know, do you want

those home runs? The home runs are going to happen. So do you want the home runs to be solo shots, or do you want them to be like two and three run bombs? Because that's kind of where I think defense is in a sense. is like, let's make sure that when those balls leave the yard, they're just solo home runs. They're not like, oh, we dropped the ball or, oh, we couldn't get to a ball in time. Or now our starters pitching out of the stretch and up, there goes, now it's a two-run homer instead of just one.

So I think defense is really valuable in that way. I think that guys like Swahart, you know, offer some upside there. And I do think that, you know, if some things can go well enough for him, I think there's still the possibility that he probably gets moved back behind the plate at some point and probably becomes like a, you know, a relatively decent, like, you know, backup catcher. I think that could be like a real tandem with him and Carson Kelly. But I don't know. I mean, that's still a ways off.

And I don't know that Swight Hart is, you know, necessarily the greatest in terms of, you know, defensive metrics back there. I think he's okay and probably slightly above average, but not great. So it's a little tricky. Now, I'm thinking, and I haven't seen anything on this, so Jesse, correct me if you've seen anything, but with Peralta sort of having the shoulder injury and being sort of day to day and missing some reps, do we think that Christian Walker probably spends a little time in left field to make some space for Cron at first? Does that kind of mesh with what you're thinking? of how they maybe work this a little bit? I think that's possible. I'm a little bit concerned with the idea of Christian Walker getting regular time in the outfield. I obviously haven't seen him out there a whole lot, but I struggle to imagine that going

particularly well for the Diamondbacks. But one thing you do have with this team is I think you have a lot of versatility. With Cattel Marte now being able to play center field, both middle infield, spots. You know, Eduardo Escobar can go just about anywhere on the infield, potentially even the corner outfield spots. Blake Swihart, obviously, can play both of the corner outfield spots, maybe even center field. You can probably put in just about anywhere on the infield as well. I think he played pretty much every single position for the Red Sox last season. So the Diamondbacks do have that versatility on their side. So I think it puts them in a favorable

position when they do run into injuries. They have guys. that they can that they can kind of shuffle around. But I will also say on the topic of, on the topic of Christian Walker, this is a guy who really seemed to be having a kind of breakout that I think a lot of people were excited about. We even have spent time on the show

talking about his exit velocity numbers, how even some of the underlying metrics were looking pretty good. What have you seen, happen to Christian Walker, Jeff? I mean, I definitely, you know, the big thing that stands out to me still, and you'll hear the guys talk about this on the broadcast and the right, is just he's getting beat, and it's been happening all season, but he's been getting beat on, frankly, like, fastball's in the strike zone.

And this is something I'm really interested in exploring and, you know, just trying to kind of understand a little bit what's happening there. And we've seen him swing through a lot of fastballs, and they're not all, like, 98 miles hour. I mean, some of them are 92, 93, and he's still swinging through them. So I think when those things happen, it can really, you know, mess with a batter's, you know, maybe confidence a little bit or can maybe send them searching, and maybe that searching is for, for not, and becomes maybe a futile effort in some ways. So I think he's just kind of trying to find his groove again. And I don't, I do think that he at times his swing can get a little long and when he keeps it short he does

better but those things are really difficult to control like there's a runner on first and second you know and one out and you're trying to like drive some runs home I mean are you thinking about your back shoulder like are you thinking about your load and trying to keep yourself you know short to the baseball so there's a bit of instinct that takes over and and Hopefully he's going to find something that maybe sticks for him. But I wonder if he's kind of been searching for an answer. And if that's maybe compounded the issue a bit. I did look at some projections for the rest of the season,

just kind of comparing Cronin Walker. Pocoda thinks that Christian Walker is about a, you know, BP uses deserved runs created plus, so DRC Plus. and Walker is at a 93 and Crone is at 82 for the rest of the season. Those are both below average figures. But then if we look at steamer, steamer projections have it a little bit closer with Crone at like 95 and Walker at 100. So I don't know.

It's a little bit, it's a little bit suspect in that regard. Oh, excuse me. Cron was at 100 and Walker was at 95. So steamer seems to like Cron a little bit better. are, you know, as of this moment, and Pocoda seems to still prefer Walker. But, you know, the fact the matter is those numbers are not like wildly different than one another. So I think, I think what we can, what we can maybe read into that a little bit is that no matter of the decision here, this is probably a weakness for the team as we see sort of the vacuum of Paul Goldschman.

I know Paul Goldschman's had his struggles, but they're probably looking at, to like maybe get kind of average-ish offense out of the first base position for the rest of the season instead of having a guy that, you know, I think we both would probably bet money that Paul Goldschmidt finishes with a much better line than he has right now. So I think we're seeing a little bit of that vacuum play out. And even though Christian Walker has done a good job of, you know, keeping that margin close to this point starting to falter a little bit. And there's a lot of baseball left to play. So I'll be really interested to see how that works out. know that there's a great difference between the two hitters though well jeff i think we have to mention

that kevin kron if indeed he plays against the san francisco giants will not be the first diamond back's first baseman to make their debut in san francisco against the san francisco giants and i've heard fans take this fact and uh and you know of course start to make the kevin kron paulgolschmidt comparison And Jeff, do you think it's safe to say fans need to curve their expectations just a little bit? Yeah, 100%. I hit Paul Goldsmith was a unicorn. You know, the draft is right around the corner. I am super pumped.

I cannot wait for the draft. I'm super stoked. And, you know, Paul Goldschmidt was drafted in the eighth round. And, man, if you go back and look at the studies of, like, what the expected contribution at the Major League level is, by like round of draft pick. You know, you're not even looking for much of a return at all by the eighth round, let alone the 14th round. I do think they're different guys.

And, you know, someone had made the comment to us a little bit about, you know, what about like Pete Alonzo? Like, Pete Alonzo is a guy. Like, what's wrong with Kevin Crone? Like, you know, but I look at it now. I mean, Crone is like two years older. You know, Alonzo was like a second round pick. I mean, while, you know, some of those.

things like where a guy gets drafted can be deceiving at times by and large scouts do a pretty good job of identifying talent teams do a pretty good job of you know picking it where it belongs so i think there's a sizable talent gap there uh in expecting you know kevin crown to be uh you know paul goldschmidt or even just peter alonzo is probably a little optimistic um yeah so i i do think this team is kind of in a spot where they're going to have to really search for like, I don't really know who the first base of the future is. You know, maybe Crone will do something or maybe Walker figure something out. Pave and Smith has not been very good.

Like, I just really go back and look and I'm like, I mean, first base is a spot that you can fill somewhat easily, but I don't know who the immediate answer is there for the long term. I think that's a little undecided. It was Dominic who sent us the question about Kevin Crone that you mentioned. Thanks to Dominic for submitting that. it was actually kind of funny because Kroen was called up almost immediately after Dominic asked us a question about how good does Kroen had to be.

Yeah, maybe Dominic has a source. We're not sure. But yes, thank you to Dominic for submitting that question to us. We also have one from at Andrew AJT, which we did talk about a little bit. He says are the Diamondbacks downhill from here for 2019 or is there a reason to believe they can surge? Jeff, from my perspective, I think we covered it a little bit earlier. It kind of seems like the Diamondbacks seem to be pretty much who we thought they were.

I think they are a little bit better than 500. If you look pretty much at all facets of the game, the Diamondbacks, I believe, still have a top 11 pitching staff. I believe if you go by pitching war, I think they're in the top 10 in batting war. I think their fielding is fourth, I want to say, in defensive runs saved at the moment. moment. So, you know, you look at, you know, pitching, defense, hitting. Those are really the three main aspects of a baseball team that you're trying to evaluate. The Diamondbacks have been above average in all three of them. So I don't think this, you know, this five-game losing streak

is simply, you know, a symbol of what is to come and the Diamondbacks are actually going to win 70 games this year. I don't anticipate that. But I also think the hopes that we might have had earlier of this team really contending in some significant way for a playoff spot. I think this might have kind of brought us back to reality as far as that is concerned. Yeah, I agree. I think this is going to be how it goes. I will not be shocked if they go on some stretch and win eight to 10. And I will not be shocked if they run cold and drop, you know, 12 of 17 again at some point. So I think this is a little bit of what they are at this moment in time, good enough to pile it on. and win big at times and probably just not quite good enough around the fringes and others to pull out those close games.

I think this is kind of what it's going to look like. There'll be little surges and there'll be a little slumps. And when you put it all together, they probably finish within, you know, five games of 500 one way or another, either above or below. And that's probably how it'll shake out. We have another interesting question from Mike Cleary. Mike asks us, well, it gives us some names. Branky, Ray, Walker, Clark, Duplanteer, Godly, Weaver, Merrill Kelly. He also says, Just for Fun, Dallas, Keikle.

And he asks us who of those guys is going to be in the starting rotation on opening day 2020. I think this is a very interesting question. Jeff, I'll give you a couple minutes to think. I'll give mine real quick. I am probably going to choose out of this list. I think you've got to say Granky, obviously, assuming he doesn't get traded at the deadline. We'll talk deadline a little bit in just a second with our last question. So you've got Granky.

I think you've got Robbie Ray as well, who I fully expect to remain with this team into next season. I think Luke Weaver with what he's done this season has made it pretty clear that he's going to be in the Diamondbacks rotation for a long time. Taiwan Walker is a little bit of a wild card, but I would say that, you know, that would be almost a full two years to the time of his injury. if we go to opening day next season. So I think it's probably a safe bet if I had to guess today, I would guess that Taiwan Walker would be in that rotation.

And then the last guy, I would probably say John DuPontier, just given what he's given the Diamondbacks this season and the fact that he is one of their top two or three prospects, he's shown quite a bit of that to us already, albeit in just about 12 innings of work. He hasn't worked a whole lot. he's really only entered games out of the bullpen. But if the Diamondbacks can keep him healthy over the offseason

and give him the opportunity to stretch out completely going into next season, I think he seems like a prime candidate for that fifth guy. Yeah, I would agree with that. You know, again, yeah, we can talk a little bit about, you know, the future a bit. But I think Granky obviously, you know, is kind of still the ace of the staff, even if it's, you know, he's not piling up ridiculous strikeout totals. He's still been incredibly effective. You know, Taiwan Walker, I think there's enough of an investment there that I probably

see him back. Same with Robbie Ray again. Luke Weaver to me seems, you know, like pretty much a lock at this point. I mean, he's a guy that I think, you know, really makes that trade go. And John DePlante, definitely. I think he's someone that they'll, you know, try to rely on for like a good long time. He's part of the next wave. I think he's just arriving a bit early. So yeah, maybe that leaves you know, Merrill Kelly kind of on the outside looking in and Zach Godley, maybe on the outside

looking in and what do we do with some of those names? You know, I mean, there's both bullpen spots to fill. The team's going to need depth in terms of, you know, getting guys up and down. I'm not exactly sure if Merrill Kelly has options or how his situation works. I actually need to look into that. I think he does. I'm pretty. sure he does. Yeah, I would imagine he does because he didn't make any major league appearances back when he was in the Tampa Bay system. So I would think he has all his options intact. So yeah, I mean, that's probably where it goes, you know, provided the team has like a legitimate, you know, desire to put a similar or

improved quality team on the field in 2020. Real quick, before we jump into our last question. Or you know what, actually, I'm just going to merge this with our last question because they're kind of along the same lines. Sean McNally asks buyers or sellers? And he's also looking for answers on who the diamondbacks would buy and who would they sell. My quick side note is, there has been a bit of a storyline lately of the diamond backs, of course, not really having a stable fifth starter in their rotation. They've kind of tried to mask the issue to this point, moving guys forward using Zach Godley as an opener. They've been able to mask it with that so far.

I believe Taylor Clark is somewhat entering the rotation. It's a little bit unclear if he's there to stay or if this is just a temporary thing. But in a recent interview, there was talk with Mike Hazen. I believe this was on Doug and Wolf. They asked Mike Hazen about this rotation situation and if he would be willing to look out outside the organization for help. And Mike Hazen didn't rule it out. And he kind of made it sound like that's something

the Diamondbacks would definitely be looking into. Because at this point, if Taylor Clark isn't your guy, there aren't really any other options that the Diamond Vax have right now to plug into their rotation. So, Jeff, I'll pitch it over to you. You can talk buyers and sellers, like kind of the persona that the Diamondbacks

will take on at the trade deadline. And then in addition to that, this side question of how do you think the diamond backs are going to address this final spot in their rotation that's empty right now? Yeah. Good question. Good question. So I guess, you know, I'm probably going to give an answer that's unsatisfactory. But the way that I would see them approach the deadline is instead of using buyer or seller, let's use the term opportunistic. Because I think if Mike Hazen has showed us anything, it's that he'll listen, he'll evaluate.

He's looking to make value upgrades at any point in time, whether that's an upgrade by addition or an upgrade by subtraction. If he's able to get out from under all of Zach Granke's contract and maybe get like one useful piece in return, you know, that might be valuable enough for him to pull the trigger on something like that. you know, that could mean that he's a seller, but it puts him in a position to potentially be a buyer down the road. I do think that they'll look for maybe some sort of, you know, fringy, you know, additions to kind of, you know, maybe complement the roster with an eye towards the future. So, so maybe in that sense, I mean, it might look like maybe they have to sell something to do that. But really the idea was that they're buying something that's of use to them later on. they think they'll be maybe more competitive. So I'll just go simply opportunistic.

And the deals will kind of fall where they fall, right? Because it always takes two to tango or, you know, Dave Stewart's famous three-team trades. It might take three to tango. That sounds complicated. I can't dance. But they've, if there's a way that they can, you know, find a way to add value to the roster, I think they'll continue to do it. And I think that'll work maybe both directions.

So he's really tired. with managing the health of the org, and if he can improve that, he's going to do it. Is Taylor Clark the answer for the, for the, you know, rotation spot? I think Taylor Clark decides that. I think that if he can, you know, come out and command his fastball well enough, he's got a chance. The slider can be good. The changeup can be okay. It's really about fastball command for him, as it is most pitchers, especially guys that do not pump

like 97 mile an hour heat, you know, they're just, they've got to be precise. And so if, if Taylor Clark can do that, I do think that he's maybe a guy that holds down that spot for a good while until maybe Taiwan Walker's ready to come back. So I'm very intrigued to see if they can go that route. I don't see them spending on like Dallas Kikell to like fill that rotation spot. I don't see them, you know, necessarily being too aggressive unless they feel like someone's trying to sell low on a starting pitcher, but I think Taylor Clark has like a real opportunity here. And he can maybe dictate a little bit how that goes because John DePontier has not really been stretched out enough to really assume that spot.

And Taylor Weidner has really struggled at AAA, though his latest outing was really quite good and was the best one of his season. So I think he's kind of got like Clark maybe has like kind of an inside track here. if he can hold it down. And it would be great if he could because I've seen enough of Zach Godby in the rotation. I think this is kind of a prime

situation for Mike Hazen. I mean, absolutely, if Taylor Clark comes out and performs pretty well, and so far in a short amount of work, he's looked pretty decent. He's definitely kept the Diamondbacks in the game whenever he's been on the mound.

But if, Taylor Clark were to falter and Mike Hayeson were to need to go out and try to get some sort of outside help to give the diamond backs at least just a viable option for that number that number five rotation spot. I think, you know, what better GM to have than Mike Hayes in making that kind of decision. We all know the story of Clay Buckholes last season who came in here in the middle of the year, a guy who I believe was playing in AAA at the time for the Toronto Blue Jays. He comes over, puts on a diamond backs uniform wins. I believe it was seven games, had an ERA just over two in 16 starts,

an absolutely unbelievable half season that he turned in for the diamond backs before he eventually got hurt at the end of the year. But I think this could turn into a situation where Mike Hazen goes out and makes a move like that. I agree with you that Dallas Keichel is probably not in the cards. I don't think the diamond backs are in a position where it makes sense to spend on a guy like a Dallas Kichel. But if Clark were not the guy for the diamondbacks,

I think Mike Hazen would by all means be in a good position to do that. You also mentioned Zach Granky, who just recently, I believe it was Bob Nightingale, who mentioned that both the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees have expressed some level of interest in Zach Granky. And I think it would be hard for the diamond backs to move him. number one, simply because the Diamondbacks already have a missing spot in their rotation as it is, so they would need to have some sort of outlet for filling that spot in the rotation.

But secondly, Jeff, and we talked about this a little bit before we started recording, Zach Granky has brought a whole lot to this Diamondbacks team. There was a time when this contract looked to be a disaster in that first year in 2016, when Granky was not on his game, it looked like the Diamondbacks were in, for a nightmare. They were giving basically a below average starting pitcher, one of the highest contracts that's ever been handed out to anyone in professional sports. It looked like it was going to be an enormous issue, and Granky has completely turned things in around. He has an ERA just over two since his disastrous opening day start against the Dodgers. And I think given the fact

that Zach Granky has that enormous contract, he's probably not a guy you're going to get a whole lot for in a trade because of the contract. I think in some ways, from my standpoint, I think it makes the most sense to simply leave Granky on the Diamondbacks. He gives this team a lot of stability at the front end of the rotation. And frankly, even if the Diamondbacks did get relieved of all of that money that is on the books for Zach Granky, I'm not really sure what they would do with it. I just don't see the Diamondbacks being in a position right now to go out and spend a whole lot of money on much of anything. and I think it's very possible that that money, given the fact that you're not going to get a whole lot for Granky if you trade him,

I think it's possible that that money is simply left best spent with Zach Granky, who at the age of 35 is somehow still a pretty elite starting pitcher in this league. Yeah, I mean, I too have interest in Zach Granky every fifth day. And even I, you know, I think he'd be a fun guy to, like, have over at the house and just we could just sit in silence and watch a baseball game together. Yeah, I mean, I hear the reports, right? Like, everyone's interested, of course, right? But, I mean, it always depends on the price. And I don't know.

I'm so torn because, like, you, I think of the money spent on Zach Granke. And I'm like, that's a lot of cash. And then I watch him pitch and I'm like, damn, he's still good. So, you know, I think you're totally right. I think that, you know, for as much as people could have pooed the contract at the time, he's done a pretty damn good job of living up to it. And I'm really like pleasantly surprised and I think he's aged, you know, about as well as we could hope with all things considered. So, you know, but I don't know if, you know, let's say they got out from under the entire contract.

They're able to trade it all and they take a couple of lottery tickets in return. Okay, great. what do they do with $35 million a year to play around with? What do they do with that cash? And a friend of mine, Craig Goldstein, has made this point about a lot of teams in baseball right now have been sort of ditching players or refusing to sign free agents in the name of, you know, quote unquote, financial flexibility. And then you kind of ask the question, like, what are you doing with the flexibility? Like, did you reinvest the money in your roster? No, you didn't.

Your owner just has, like, fewer checks to write. So I don't know if there's a way that they could spend the money better, as you said. I mean, there's probably some combination of that, right, but not a realistic way. Like, sure, it'd be great to, you know, be able to give that money to, you know, five of the best, cheapest players in baseball, but those guys aren't all coming to the roster. So realistically, I don't know if there's, you know, a whole lot better, way to invest it. And I still think Granky is a draw. Like, I think people are excited to see him play, excited to see him pitch. I think that he...

Excited to see him hit? Yeah. Right. Yeah, absolutely. No kidding. And, you know, he's a great quote. And I think he's a good guy to have in the clubhouse. I think his teammates really like him for the most part. And I just don't know really what the upside is. I mean, unless, you know, unless they have some other plan and some other scheme where they really are interested in, in, uh, the surplus that they could maybe have by dealing him. So, you know, we were talking before, and I think you made a good point, Jesse. Like, if we look at the best players in the game right now and the most valuable players in the game right now, they're not generally like free agent signings.

Like, that is just not the way baseball is going anymore. Big thank you to Andrew, Dominic, Mike, and Sean for submitting their questions. As always, we really appreciate it. And as well, a big thank you to you, the listener, who have stuck with us on what has turned out to be a bit of a longer episode here on The Rattle, but I also feel like we kind of owe it to you missing last week. We had a bit of a scheduling issue. Neither of us were able to pull it off,

but we appreciate your patience and sticking with us here in this sixth episode of The Rattle. That is all that we have here for this sixth episode. Be sure to check out our website at www.therattle.net. Joshua Inman, one of our writers, just posted, should I say, a piece over there that you're going to want to check out. So be sure to head over to therattle.net and find that piece.

And give us a follow on Twitter. You can find us at the Rattle AZ. Thank you once again so much for listening here on the Rattle Podcast for Jeff. I'm Jesse Friedman. We say so long and we will see you once again next week to talk more about the Arizona Diamondbacks.