PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Should Diamondbacks TRADE For Brewers Closer Devin Williams This Offseason?

Episode Date: November 5, 2024

The Diamondbacks have already made a move this offseason, claiming ASU alum Seth Martinez off waivers from the Houston Astros. But should Mike Hazen and the D-backs set their sights on a bigger target for the bullpen? We discuss if Brewers closer Devin Williams makes sense for the Snakes despite not having the best track record in the playoffs or if they should stick with Justin Martinez as their closer of the future. We also have more on an MLB investigation into a Dominican prospect who agreed to a $4 million with the Padres lying about his age. Join Derek, Jesse, and Kevin for the PHNX Diamondbacks Show LIVE! An ALLCITY Network Production SUBSCRIBE to our YouTube: https://bit.ly/phnx_youtube ALL THINGS PHNX: http://linktr.ee/phnxsports MERCH https://store.allcitynetwork.com/collections/phnx-locker ALLCITY Network, Inc. aka PHNX and PHNX Sports is in no way affiliated with or endorsed by the City of Phoenix PHNX Events: Get your tickets to PHNX events and takeovers here: https://gophnx.com/events/ bet365: https://www.bet365.com/olp/open-account?affiliate=365_03330244 Use the code PHNX365 to sign up, deposit $10 and choose your offer! Disclaimer: Must be 21+ and physically located in AZ. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-NEXT-STEP, text NEXTSTEP to 53342 or visit https://problemgambling.az.gov/ Bluechew: Try BlueChew FREE when you use our promo code ALLCITY at checkout--just pay $5 shipping. That’s https://bluechew.com promo code ALLCITY to receive your first month FREE. Visit for more details and important safety information, and we thank BlueChew for sponsoring the podcast.. Zbiotics: Go to https://zbiotics.com/phnxdbacks to get 15% off your first order when you use PHNXDBACKS at checkout. Pre-Alcohol is backed with 100% money back guarantee so if you’re unsatisfied for any reason, they’ll refund your money, no questions asked. Empire Today: Schedule a free in-home estimate today! All listeners can receive a $350 OFF discount when they use the promo code PHNX. Restrictions apply. See https://empiretoday.com/phnx for details. Branded Bills: Use code PHNX at https://www.brandedbills.com/ for 20% off your first order! Gametime: Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code PHNX for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Circle K: Join Inner Circle for free by downloading the Circle K app today! Head to https://www.circlek.com/store-locator to find Circle Ks near you! Shady Rays: Exclusively for our listeners, Shady Rays is giving out their best deal of the season. Head to https://shadyrays.com and use code: PHNX for 35% off polarized sunglasses. Try for yourself the shades rated 5 stars by over 300,000 people. Check out FOCO merch and collectibles and use promo code “PHNX10” for 10% off your order on all non Pre Order items. Rugged Road: Gear up for your next adventure with Rugged Road Coolers - Your ultimate outdoor companion! Head to http://ruggedroadoutdoors.pxf.io/ALLCITY and use code PHNX for 10% off! Get 10 FREE meals at https://hellofresh.com/freedbacks. Applied across 7 boxes, new subscribers only, varies by plan. When you shop through links in the description, we may earn affiliate commissions. Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Should the Diamondbacks trade the brewers for pitchy or closer, Devin Williams? We're talking about it now in 30 seconds. Don't go anywhere. See you all and welcome in to Studio K presented by Circle K and another edition of the PHNX, Deepak's podcast right here, PHNX. My name, of course, is Derek Montia. Occasionally known as your mayor of PHNX. This man next to me is your thunderstick, my vice mayor, I guess, today.

Jesse Friedman. And it is, of course, that time of year. So make sure you vote for Montia when you go to the polls today. But Jesse, the Arizona Diamondbacks have already started making moves. Not exactly the big moves that we wanted to make. But they do bring home ASU alum Seth Martinez off waivers from the Houston Astros. Overall, not an earth-shattering move by any stretch of the imagination. But, I mean, some of Seth Martinez's numbers are interesting.

And of course, we know at times that Mike Hazen tends to have a pretty. pretty good eye for talent. These are his 2024 stats. He had a 3.59 ERA with a 1.27 whip in 52 and two-thirds innings pitched. He had a strikeout percentage of 16.2%, a walk percentage of 8.1% and a 4.78 FIP. Again, Jesse, not anything that's going to alter the course of a team's destiny, but could end up maybe being a part of this bullpen this season. He very well could be.

Yeah, I mean, anytime you pick up a guy off waivers who had a mid-3 ERA over a really significant sample, it's not like he only pitched a few innings for the Astros in 2024, he threw 52 and two-thirds innings, as you said earlier. So, yeah, I think at the same time, you know, you look at some of the underlying numbers with Seth Martinez, and, you know, you can understand why he was available on waivers, why the Houston Astros, you know, were not necessarily compelled to keep him on their roster for the foreseeable future. So, yeah, you mentioned the 16.2% strikeout rate. That's well below league average for a reliever. That's about as low as you'll see.

He really didn't miss many bats at all in 2024. And, yeah, the 4.78 FIP, I think his XFIP is in the, is just below five as well. So the underlying number suggests that Martinez is probably more of a, you know, four and a half to five ERA type guy. But he also was better than this in in 2022 and 2023. So, you know, maybe the Diamondback see something here, see some adjustments that they want to make,

and they feel that they can help Martinez maintain these kind of results moving forward. He's 30 years old and was drafted by the Oakland A's in 2016. The Astros brought him in as a Rule 5 pick in 2020. And again, the Astros are an organization that typically also have I guess a good track record of finding talent and finding guys like this. So overall, the numbers aren't going to blow you away.

I think I've found a way to say that in three different ways. But still, it's one of those situations where the Diamondbacks are still trying to fill, you know, obviously some roles in their bullpen. They're still trying to maybe make up for some of the losses due to free agency this offseason. And most importantly, they're trying to find inexpensive ways to do so. and Martinez could be that for them. Yeah, I think he totally could. And we'll see how things shake out, right?

I mean, he's on the Diamondbacks roster now. You know, does this mean he'll be on the opening day roster? Not necessarily. Right. We saw last off season. And generally, you see over the course of an off season, you're going to pick up some guys on waivers or whatnot over the course of the off season.

It doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to carry over into the regular season. But he has had some success in, In the past as well, you know, you look at his, I believe it's his 2022 season in particular, where Seth Martinez was actually quite good for the Houston Astros. He had a 2.09 ERA that year in 38 and two-thirds innings. And he was missing a lot more bats at that point as well. He's not a big Velo guy. He throws about 91 miles an hour.

That's been pretty consistent the last few years. Some of his off-speed stuff didn't miss as many bats in 2024. change up was down about two miles an hour this year. So maybe getting that VLO up a little bit would help that pitch be more effective moving forward. But yeah, you know, the Astros, they seem to always have these guys floating around who are like, yeah, they're solid, you know, decent relievers that other teams might want to have. And yet the Astros like don't have room for them on their roster.

So the Diamondbacks can maybe benefit from that here. We kind of understand that with our limited bench and our PH&X fantasy football. You have to make some tough decisions sometimes. And sometimes you cut guys you don't want to part ways with, but with only like five back spots. Yeah, that's insane. It is infuriated me too.

I'm carrying two kickers and two defenses right now. Hold on. We got to hear from Big In commitment, Kevin Thomas. What do we got? I just wanted to voice my beef with the fact that we don't have an IR slot. Oh, it's insane. It's insane. With this many people.

Yeah. And it's just, I've had five players go out this year. And a player gets suspended. And a player gets suspended. And a player gets suspended. So don't ever let that happen. But I don't know how to transition back to the Arizona Diamondbacks other than saying you're right about the Astros.

They tend to not have space for guys like this. They are a very good organization. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, you know, again, they have to creatively find ways to get better next season, especially with the losses that they are experiencing. Now, waiver claims haven't really worked out well for Mike Hayes and the debacks historically. A lot of them kind of have gone, I guess, quietly often to them. the night. However, there was that one time in 2017, I believe, when it worked really well for them when they got a guy named Christian Walker through waivers. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, generally,

teams don't do great on waivers, right? Like, if you're claiming a guy on waivers, there's a reason that they're there, right? So, yeah, the bar for success here is not particularly high. But hey, if you can, if Seth Martinez can be a contributor for the diamondbacks in some way in in 2025, then you know, you're not really giving up anything for him, right? There's not a significant financial cost or anything like that here. It is kind of fun that he is an Arizona native, that he went to Arizona State University for several years, although I'm a big U of A guy, so. Gross.

You know, he is so wishy-washi. He hates Tucson, but he's a big U.S.A guy. Make up your mind. Pick a lay. Hey, I can love the university without loving the city, all right, Derek. You can separate these things out a little bit, all right? I'll let you people from Tucson come from. Thank you.

No, you cannot do that. Tucson is the University of Arizona. It really is. There's obviously a lot more down to it. No, wait. Listen, there's a lot more. There's a lot more to the university. No, but I'm saying else there.

But I was saying it's such a big part of what the city is. Like in the summer, I've lived there during the summer. There's not, there's a lot less people there, right? But it's also a beautiful city with a city. It's a city of gastronomy. It's one of the most diverse food cultures. In America. He sounds like Damon now.

You know what I mean? It's a wonderful city. It's a quiet city. It's not the metro mess that Phoenix is sometimes. You know. But yeah, Jesse, you can have your opinion. It's awesome. But we don't want you in Wildcat Nation if you're going to act this way.

We don't want everyone needs you. As John Moran was said, you're on that side. Stay on that side. Are we ever going to get a producer who isn't from Tucson? No, I mean, that's like they assign them to us when they come here. We have our new guy, Noah, starting today. I'm sure he's from Tucson, too. but yeah you're right in regards to waiver claims are is there any surprise that the diamondbacks

are already making moves this early not to say that this one's like again a high risk move they didn't really commit a lot of money to set the martinez i'm sure and you know it's it's just a chance for them to take a look at a guy that could potentially be a little bit of a diamond in the rough but i mean it's it's still like pretty really it's here's the diamond backs trying to make make something happen early on, right? I mean, they have room on their 40-man roster. So at this point, there is really, yeah, I think it's at 35. So when you have that much room on your 40-man roster, then you feel like you sort of might

as well put in a claim on someone like this. You feel has a chance to impact your team in 2025. And, you know, if the Diamondbacks, depending on how their off-season goes, maybe it turns out that they don't have room anymore to carry Seth Martinez on their 40-man roster. And then at that point, you know, you can move on from him and maybe find his way to another team. You know, you feel bad for someone like Seth Martinez who doesn't really have any kind of stability this winter. Like, just because he was just claimed by the Diamondbacks, as I'm saying, does not necessarily mean like, oh, he's living in Arizona for the foreseeable future. Yeah, he's in a, you know, kind of a transient portion of his career right now.

But yeah, you know, maybe the Diamondbacks are able to get a simple. similar version of Martinez is what we saw in 2024, which was a guy who had a mid 3 ERA and was durable over 50 innings pitched and that has a lot of value. Wouldn't a mid ERA put them in like the top five

of the Diamondbacks bullpen staff or am I off by that? No, I mean, I think that's pretty fair, right? I mean, which Diamondbacks relievers were in the bullpen entire season and were better than that? I mean, it's Justin Martinez, it's Kevin Ginkle,

It's Ryan Thompson, and I think that's probably it. Yeah. So it doesn't seem like it's that bad of a move overall. And like you said, if they do have to move on from him, then they can do so. But for the most part, it feels like this might be another one of those cases where Mike Hayes and cooked a little bit, might bring in a guy that nobody really expected to contribute that does. Now, I will say that our social media person, Emma, when she first heard Seth Martinez, she was like, you know, so, And that's somebody from the Astros organization that's very familiar with baseball. Seth Martinez, again, probably isn't going to move the needle a ton.

It's definitely not the waiver claims the Diamondbacks put in, I think, in 2023, where they missed out on all four. And they were all, like, players that could have considerably made the team better. I think Harrison Bader was one of them. There was that, like, a little stretch where they tried their best and didn't happen. But that team went on, as you may remember, to do some pretty fun stuff. I will say real quick, the Diamondbacks put in a waiver. claim last December on Colin Snyder from the Kansas City Royals, another move that went very much under the radar. In that case, they did not wind up keeping Colin Snyder. They designated him

for assignment in late January, after which point, he was claimed off waivers by the Seattle Mariners. And Derek, do you know what Colin Snyder did for the Seattle Mariners in 2024? Hit me with it, Jesse. Colin Snyder in 42 games, 41 and two thirds innings, a 1.9, 4.9 ERA in a 1.18 whip. I'm going to throw the chair at this side. I'm going to throw the chair at this side. I don't think that's very much an indictment on the Diamondbacks, as much as it is just a credit to how good the Seattle Mariners are at just sort of picking,

picking up guys off the street and turning them into like effective back end relievers. So I guess this is where this question comes in, though. Do you think he would have had that season with the Diamondbacks? Yeah, I mean, probably not, if I'm being totally honest. So let's just say, again, going back to a previous conversation that a lot of people have had, if that's the case, then who do you blame it on that a pitcher would not be as good? Just circumstance, the catcher, the team as a whole, is that where you put some blame on the pitching staff or the pitching coaching staff? Like, the Diamondbacks have done.

Like, I don't know. I mean, again, that's a question I asked myself about this staff quite a bit. bit and that's the reason why I keep coming back to that now something interesting about set Martinez is that right now the diamondbacks don't have a pitching coach so really they don't know what you know a pitching coach's feelings on a pitcher like Martinez or any of the guys in the staff are going to be and it's honestly a great opportunity for Seth because of that I think it's kind of like a you know kind of clean slate for you to come over here and if you can maybe last through that period of time where they they don't even give you a chance you know get to spring training

might have an opportunity to, you know, be a part of this team in 2025. Yeah, Snyder is an interesting case. I mean, you look at some of the underlying numbers there. His expected ERA for the Mariners was 3.97. So I think he probably overperformed a little bit. I'm not trying to say that, you know, the Mariners pick this guy up on waivers from the Diamondbacks and, you know, he's like an elite back-end reliever sustainably. Sounds like it based on the numbers you provide.

But I'm just saying. I do think it's not just a matter of the coaching staff. it's also a matter of your analytics department and your front office. Like, good point. I don't think it's just the, you know, the Mariners pitching coaches maximizing these guys, although that seems to also be the case.

It's that the Mariners seem to know how to identify which guys to target. And, and maybe beyond that, like, what kind of adjustments to make? How, you know, what kinds of things are you doing to maximize them? A lot of times that stuff is coming from, you know, your analytics team more so than, you know, your pitching coach who's who's kind of handling the day-to-day activities and whatnot.

So the Mariners are really good at this. Like in some ways, it's kind of unfair to compare the Diamondbacks and expect them to be at that level. The Mariners are so good at that. All I'm hearing here is that I think we figured out who we need to steal from the Mariners. As Shane knows, we will be stealing somebody from the Mariners. Right, right. Of course, it's easy to think it's going to be a player, but maybe instead a pitching coach.

Yeah. Maybe. Yeah, just the whole the whole pitching coach. The analytics department. Yeah. The analytics department, everybody. Yeah. Sorry Dan Heron.

Anyway, well, we know that the Diamondbacks will be doing whatever they can to make their bullpen better in 2025. And we have an even bigger question to ask on the other side of our break, which is, should the Diamondbacks make a big trade for Brewers Closer, Devin Williams? We will have the reasons why that's both a good and maybe a bad idea after this break. So don't go anywhere. Of course, Bet365 does make watching sports better, whether it's the side. last night with their exciting win, the Cardinals, which lead the NFL or NFC West, which, again, is another inexplicable thing. But right now you can get down a Bet365 and get in on live in-game betting during those games. Of course, that just makes watching it even more fun as well.

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Well, the brewers, inexplicably, have declined closer Devin Williams' $10 million club option for 2025, which doesn't seem to make a whole heck of a lot of sense. It seems like he is the kind of pitcher that would probably get more on the open market. And it feels like this is the beginning of them kind of starting to maybe part ways with Devin Williams. He has another year of arbitration left, right? So he's still under the Brewers. Essentially, he's still part of the Brewer's organization for one more season. Yeah, it's a really weird situation.

I think this happened last year when the Brewers and Devin Williams camp were negotiating in arbitration. They wound up agreeing to a deal that tacked on a club option for the 2025 season. But it doesn't mean that the, but the Brewers already had team control over this season. So it was just a matter of locking in a specific number that the team would have access to. and the brewer is elected to decline that. As you said, I think it was around $10 million. He is still eligible for arbitration, but he's only expected to make,

I think around $8 million in arbitration. Is there any chance it's performance-based in any way or anything like that? Like, it just seems like a weird situation that you made a promise to a pitcher like this who still had a great season, even though he had some injuries early on and had a terrible postseason, right?

Like, I get that aspect of it, but I mean, I don't know. It seems like declining this, option which like you said is a weird kind of club option for 20 was a mutual option or the it's a club option it's it's weird i mean it's not yeah i mean it's something that really would benefit the team more so than the player right it's a it's a club option so presumably the brewers were going to exercise this option if they felt it was a lower number than what williams would make an arbitration um or as is the case this season they're like

No, we're not going to use the club option because we think we can get him for less in arbitration. And yeah, the only reason that they can get him for less in arbitration, I think, is because, as you said, Devin Williams missed pretty significant time with injury this season. He had a back injury. He wound up throwing 22, 21 and two-thirds innings. And so this was not a full season of a dominant closer as we had seen, you know, the couple of years before that. Which is what they'll most likely use against him in arbitration, right?

Yeah. And then they'll also use the playoff performance in arbitration. Yeah, I don't know if you can use postseason stuff in arbitration. Maybe you can. Like, based on what Archie was describing, if you haven't gotten a chance to see that, I think that was on Ask Archie, right? Like, if you're not a diehard, I'm sorry, join us. You're missing out.

There's wonderful content. Archie explained to us what it's like going through an arbitration hearing. And it was as bad as we imagined. Yeah. Right. Like, it was absolutely as bad as you imagine it being. we obviously being people that have never gone through it could only speculate. I thought it was hilarious that he thought it actually occurred in a courtroom.

So he wore a suit. That's a great story to not miss out on. But of course, I think the key there was it felt it sounded a little ruthless a little bit. And I mean, again, it's the approach of the team. It's the approach of the lawyer, which is who typically goes in there on behalf of the team, as Archie was telling us. And is the one that does a lot of the arguing, again. against you as a player for whatever amount that you're requesting. But I think that what we've already heard out of the Brewer's camp with Corbyn Burns

was that the arbitration process with them seemed a little bit nasty, a little unfair. And yeah, I think that that's definitely something that maybe, I mean, maybe you don't want to be a part of that organization anymore going forward. Like maybe they have good reason to believe Devin Williams isn't going to be a brewer beyond 2025 anyway. So that could also be the reason why they're doing this. It would seem to damage the relationship in my opinion. Yeah, I mean, that's what arbitration is all about, right? It's about just damaging, damaging relationships between teams and players.

I do think people are right in the chat. I don't think that one has been published yet. But it will be out soon. And if you are a diehard, then yes, you will be able to watch that. It's fantastic stuff. Have we shown Devin Williams' stats for the 2024 season yet? Let's take a look at those stats for 2024 because they are incredible, despite it only being a small sample size, right? 22 and a third innings pitch, not very much this season.

Devin Williams has a 1.25 ERA, a 0.97 whip, a 43.2% strikeout rate. Which is ridiculous. Just absurd. 12.5% walk rate. And then 15 or excuse me, 17 out of 18 for saves. Yeah, it's supposed to be 14 for 15. Okay. I just, in my head, I had 17 for 18, and I put it on the rundown, and then poor Kevin made a graphic with numbers that just came from my brain and not from anywhere.

At least you're stepping up here and accepting responsibility. I think Kevin more than anybody appreciates that. But I think that in regards to that, I mean, again, small sample size there, even smaller sample size for this, but let's take a look at his postseason stats, which kind of go the opposite direction of what we just looked at there with his 2024 stats right career postseason stats he's only had two and a third innings pitched but he has a 23.14 ERA a 3.43 whip 13.3% strikeout rate 26.7% walk rate and he is one for two on saves. I just want to point out that the math on this is crazy. He's pitched a 10th of what he pitched in the regular season but he has over 10 times the ERA.

Yeah, it's insane. It's insane. And it's just because, again, it's a small sample size and he was terrible in the postseason. And he seems to always have been terrible in the postseason, even though he hasn't pitched a lot, right? And of course, we do remember when the Diamondbacks faced him in game one of the wild card round last year, right, Jesse? Yeah, yeah, three walks in that inning. Devin Williams got two outs, Christian Walker at a two-run double. Yeah, Devin Williams, I mean, it's three appearances in the postseason, right?

And there was that terrible inning against the Diamondbacks. There was the inning this postseason where he gave up a certain go-ahead home run in the ninth inning to Pete Alonzo. And yeah, it's been brutal for him in the playoffs. But it's just three appearances. And I really can't stress enough how good Devin Williams has been in the regular season. I mean, a 1-25-E-R-A this year. He had a 153 last year, a 193 the year before that. This is a guy who was a career ERA.

of 1.83. That's absurd. How many innings pitched? In 235 and two-thirds innings pitched. That is not a small sample size. Not a small sample size. So if the diamond, the reason you trade for Devin Williams

is very obvious. He very well might be the best closer in all the baseball right now. Certainly in that conversation. And if you can imagine the Diamondbacks bullpen with Devin Williams at the end, you know, given what happened with Seawald

during the middle of the year, they went with Jay Mart for the most, part down the stretch. He was pretty good in that role, but I think it's clear that you might not want him in that role, at least not at this stage in his career, just given how young he is. If you've got Devin Williams at the end, you've got J. Mart and A.J. Puck as set up guys, you've got Kevin Ginkle and Ryan Thompson, his back end options as well. That could be one of the best bullpins in all of baseball. And then you'd still love Joe Mantiply, Seth Martinez, if he stays in in the bullpen, hypothetically or Bryce Jarvis returning from injury.

You also have Drake Jamison returning from injury. He would factor in here as well as a long reliever. Maybe with whoever doesn't make the starting rotation out of Ryan Nelson and Jordan Montgomery. Yeah. Like, yeah, I mean, a lot of your bullpen problems can suddenly be fixed simply by adding one player to it that really does change everything. And that's something we saw with Paul Seawald. The difference here is that Williams is an elite, an elite closer. in baseball and like Jesse said possibly

one of the best. The big question here is it's a trade. What would they want in return? We know the Diamondbacks and we know other teams are really hesitant to give up prospects and especially proven major leaguers, but it's going to cost you a lot to get somebody like Devin Williams

even if it's just for one season of Devin Williams, right? Yeah, I think it'd be easier to stomach paying a big price here if it was two years of Devin Williams and you're like hey, we've got like the best closer in the league for two seasons. We're willing to pay up for that.

One season is maybe a little bit trickier. You know, what would the Brewers want in a deal like this? It's pretty hard to speculate. I know they're losing some pitching. They just decline an option on Colin Ray. Frankie Montas declined his end of a mutual option. So they're a little bit short on the starting pitching fronts.

And we have heard Mike Hazen recently talk about starting pitching being a potential area of surplus for the Diamondbacks. You know, are you trading Ryan Nelson for one year of Devin Williams? Probably not, at least on the Diamondbacks from their perspective. I don't think that would make any sense for them. But are there other guys who are maybe close to the majors but not there yet. Or, you know, I hate to say it because I know it's someone that's pretty popular around here,

but maybe a Dre Jameson is an intriguing piece for them. No. Yeah. I feel like that's going to be the cost, though. Like a Drey Jameson and Ryan Nelson, someone like that, obviously, I mean, again, it's it feels worse about the fact that you're potentially trading away, you know, someone that's going to be a future of this team for one year of Devin Williams. And that's where I think like, again, you might want to put a hard stop on that.

However, next year is kind of an all in year for the Arizona Diamond Bag. So Devin Williams being a part of this team would actually kind of track with the Montgomery's contract, Gallin, Kelly, all of those guys that are going to be here just for one more season. And I feel like you have that many guys who are here playing for a big contract in the offseason of 2025, that that might be, you know, a good way to get this thing going, right? At least make a run at it in 2025. It's not great for the future of this team. And I guarantee you that the Brewers are going to want more than the Diamondbacks are going to give up for Devin Williams.

It just depends on who it is, right? Like you might start looking at maybe you said starting pitching. of course we instantly think about the young guys, right? Gilbert Diaz would be another interesting name. I'm going to get crazy. What about Merrill Kelly? What about going out and trading one of the guys that they have one-year deal on? And I think to say obviously you don't want to do that with Zach Gallen.

Maybe they do trade Zach Gallen. I don't know. Maybe you try to get something for these guys who aren't going to come back after this season. That's crazy talk. But again, when you take a look at it, at least it's a little bit more. palatable that you're going to lose Merrill Kelly who's probably going to sign somewhere else after the end of the year hypothetically for a player who only has one year left as well and then that feels like you're not mortgaging the future to get better next season. I don't know if you can trade one year

Merrill Kelly for one year of Devin Williams. I think I think you take the number two starter over the closer as good as Devin Williams is. Right. But I mean, I guess is there a way. No matter what, the cost is going to be too high, I feel like. Like, there's no way you're going to get away with parting ways with a couple of, you know, top 10 prospects or something like that. I don't feel like. Yeah. Yeah.

If you, yeah, if you think you're trading, you know, like kind of a lower end depth starter for Devin Williams. I don't think that's going to happen. The brewers, if they're going to make this move over the off season, you know, they could just wait and try to trade them at the trade deadline as well. If they're going to make a move now, they need to really have a good reason to do that. And they're a team that still figures to be in contention. So I don't think you're trading the brewer as a guy from high A, you know,

and getting Devin Williams that way. So it's a tough deal to pull off. It's not something I'm expecting to happen. But we have heard from the brewer's side that trading Devin Williams is something that they're open to. They did something very similar last winter when they traded Corbyn Burns when he had one year remaining. Yeah. This is sort of what the brewers have done, given that they are the smallest market team in all of baseball.

So it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Devin Williams move to this offseason. It's just a matter of, you know, is that cost going to be worthwhile for the Diamondbacks? It's hard to say. When asked about it, Brewer's GM, Matt Arnold said the following. He said, when asked about that possibility last month, Arnold said, we have to stay open-minded. We're the smallest market in the league. So that's something that's required in the place that we have. are. But as far as Devin Williams go, I still believe he's the best closer in baseball, and I'm happy to have him. And again, I think that's a way to kind of handle the trade rumors with still saying like we, we're open to conversations. However, again, that kind of fits in with the, it's going to cost you a lot. If you guys want the best closer in the game, and I just reminded you of that, it's going to cost a significant amount. I don't know if the Diamondbacks are that.

far off from being competitive in 2025 that they would need to do something as drastic that might cost them as much. The only thing is, is that they do have some assets, right? And like, that's why as much as I hate it, as much as it puts fire in my blood just for you to even say it, someone like Drey Jameson does make sense, you know, again. Yeah. And the brewers, man, they're pitching apparatus. You were talking about the Mariners before. The brewers are also really good at maximizing pitchers. If you trade them, Dre Jameson,

you know, you have to be willing. You're going to regret it. You have to be willing to stomach. Dre Jameson being a pretty good starter for like six years. But yeah, it wouldn't, it wouldn't be cheap.

I will say the Diamondbacks are a team that clearly values having an experienced closer. We saw in the second half of last year to the chagrin of many fans that this team really wanted Paul Seawald back in the closing role, right? They did. Mike Hazen very much. emphatically confirmed that during his exit interview. We really wanted to see Paul Sewell back in that role because they saw the value of that in 2023 and how it allowed everyone else to settle into roles that were better suited for them.

If you go get Devin Williams, it's that to the endth degree, right? It's it's the best, arguably the best guy in the league at the top of his game in the ninth inning. And the debacks at that point, the depth that they've built, they would have a lot of really solid options leading up to that as well. So it's compelling. I mean, the Diamondbacks haven't had a bullpen as good as the one I think they would have in, in probably ever. I don't know if the Diamondbacks have ever had a bullpen as good as what I think it would be if they traded for Devin Williams. AJ Puck, who video game Tori Lavello refused to use in the NLDS was, is probably arguably one of the best left-handed relievers in the game.

I mean, his numbers back that up in 2024. And then again, we don't even know what Justin Martinez is going to be. yet. He hasn't even evolved to his final form yet. Kevin Ginkle, Ryan Thompson, those are guys that have been solid. And I mean, that's, again, those are the four guys that you would rely on in not only set up roles, but mental relief roles throughout the majority of the season. And that just looks much better than some of the options of Diamondbacks had at times this year. Also, I don't, I mean, I don't know. I mean, I don't even know if Devin Williams necessarily is needed, right? I mean, there is something to just be said about how good Justin Martinez.

as was at times and his progression, right? Like how a new coaching staff, as far as the pitchers are concerned, could impact someone like Justin Martinez and maybe even get more out of him than Brent Strom and Dan Carlson were getting out of him. He has just, for those who don't know much about what makes Devin Williams so effective, he has arguably the best pitch in the sport. I think you could at least make that case.

His change up, which is, yes, been nicknamed the Airbender has outrageous, outrageous movement. It spins way more than the vast majority of changeups across the league. It has like 19 or 20 inches of horizontal movement, which is ridiculous. It drops way more than, you know, average changeups around the league with similar velocity. If you hit it, it's like hitting a brick with your baseball bat. Yeah. You know, I mean.

It's ridiculous. If you look at some of the movement numbers on that pitch over at baseball savants, the vertical drop is 7.1 inches more than what is average for a similar velocity release point, all that. And then, yeah, the horizontal brink is five inches more than the average. So it's this pitch that basically no one across the league has managed to hit. And, yeah, it makes David Williams one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Ernesto in the chat is suggesting that the brewers probably ask for one of Loller or Drew plus two others.

Like again, see, that's where you start getting to an insane amount of, like, it's not worth it at all. You're not getting, I think even the brewers, I don't know if they would ask for that. I mean, maybe they would ask for Lawler, but there's no way they're expecting to get that, right? I mean, Lawler is still considered like a top 10 prospect in baseball. You're not getting that for one year of a closer, even as good as Devin Williams is. Drew Jones is more reasonable. I don't think that's an unreasonable ask. He's a little bit farther away than I think that the brewers might be targeting in a deal like.

this. No, no more top draft picks. I can, I can't, I can't part ways with any more top draft picks. I just, I want, because this is how this team is built, period. This team is going to be built through these young guys, through guys that are already here, through Mike Hazen making savvy moves and maybe bringing in someone like Seth Martinez that somehow miraculously could even be better than he was with the Astros last year, at least put up similar numbers and be a part of this staff.

I just, I think when we start getting into the idea of giving up. so much for a guy that you're only getting one year of control out of. I mean, again, also a guy that proved at least in a very small sample size to not be good in the postseason. I'm also not, you know, kicking a manual class A out of bed. That's the conversation we had in regards to like, even though he absolutely dropped the ball in the playoffs, that is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, one of the best closers in the league. And you'd happily have him be a part of your staff, even if, you know, his numbers in the playoffs looking as atrocious as these two guys numbers do.

And again, in a small sample size. I just think that the Diamondbacks are going to have this weird, like, transition between 2025 and 2025 and 26. And I think beginning in that point in 2026, there just could be a lot of these, like, what are they going to do? How are they going to replace Gallin and Kelly and Montgomery? Well, a lot of those candidates could be here in the organization already, and they could be ready to go next year that this team doesn't necessarily have to make, you know, these so many moves in order to make this team competitive once again in 2026 and beyond, right?

And so part of that is patience. Part of that is not parting ways with guys like Dre Jameson and Ryan Nelson who could potentially be the future starters of this rotation. I don't want to part ways with guys like Umin Lin or others hot prospects in the organization. At this point, for one season of Devin Williams, I would rather just. let those guys flourish here and be a part of the future here. The Diamondbacks already have a proven track record of not bringing guys back after, you know, their season is over,

especially someone of Devin Williams caliber. So that's what especially concerns me. Right, right. And the Diamondbacks most likely aren't going to be that team to pay them. So you're really just doing this as a rental for one year. I just don't see it considering the cost inevitably is going to be too high no matter what that cost is. Yeah.

I mean, I think it does, like, Devin Williams is the type of player. The Diamondbacks would like to have this off season. I do think they're going to look for back end relievers who have closing experience. And I do think it makes some sense for the Brewers to explore a trade. But kind of as you're saying, like, you only have so many bullets to fire in terms of trades you can make. Right. Only so many trade assets that you're willing to part with. Is an elite closer?

Is that really what you want to, you know, is that really what you want that those? those trade assets that you're willing to part with to get you? Or is there something else that you would rather have? Would you rather try to help rebuild the offense? Just go back to trying to, you know, maybe replace Christian Walker at first base if he goes elsewhere. There's probably going to be higher. Priorities.

Yeah, higher priorities. Other things on the checklist that are more important than this. Do you believe Justin Martinez could be an elite closer in MLB? I think so yeah I absolutely do he has the stuff for it there's no there's no question about that he's throwing 101 miles an hour right with a splitter that is nasty and a slider that is pretty darn good also it might take some time I think there's merit in going and getting someone who has closing experience as I said earlier because J-Mart looked a little shaky in that role at times but I think he has the stuff for it

and it wouldn't shock me if at some point he's able to harness the control enough and just sort of mature out there enough to be able to take on a role like that. It would be nice if the individual was somebody that could be a mentor to J-Mart and maybe help him come along and become, again, that evolved next form of himself, right?

Because I feel like he's that close. He was the talk of the team. Tori Lovallo said it to us more than once that when he was out, when he was doing, especially the All-Star game, he was the manager of the National League team, people were asking him about Justin Martinez. Who is this kid? Where did he come from all of a sudden?

Because it's not like it was all of a sudden, but I think what happened with him is he went from being kind of wild with some great stuff to dial in it back just enough where he had control and suddenly he found himself. He wasn't just kind of wild before. Oh, yeah. It was a rollercoaster to watch Justin Martinez pitch, that's for sure. But also I've never heard, like I did in sports,

training, I've never heard the ball hit the mitt as hard as I've heard it in person than when Justin Martinez was throwing it. And that's something that to this day, I still very much remember going, oh my God, that sound. It was, it was like, you know, something I've never heard before. It sounded like it was going to take the catcher's hand off. So he, he, I think, still has the ability to make that leap in 2025. And if he can, then the need for someone like Devin Williams isn't there. So I don't know. Again, this is an important season for the Diamondbacks. I think they're going to be all in. And I agree with Jesse. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go out there and go after a guy that's an elite closer. But those are limited and few and far between at this

point. The only way you're going to get one is with trade. So maybe maybe a maybe a Carlos Estevez who's out there. I know the Phillies got him at the deadline. He had a really good season. He's still throwing hard, but he is a little bit on the older side. I don't know how people. would feel about that. But yes, you're right. There are not there are not many guys like that out there on the market. That's for sure. All right. Well, speaking of the market, there might be some people that are lying a little bit about their age just to be a part of the MLB market. We're going to talk about MLB investigating a Dominican prospect for lying about his age and make it a whole lot of money from the San Diego Padre. So don't go anywhere. We'll talk about that on the other side of this break. I know it's chilly out there.

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So join the inner circle for free by downloading that circle K app today and of course go get get yourself something to drink It is America's third stop the same cannot be said for winter here in Arizona. Jesse I know it's not as hot you might not I need those drinks, but you still need yourself a quality pair of sunglasses, and you can get those from our friends at Shady Rays. Shady Rays, of course, has some of the best sunglasses that you can get out there, some wonderful crystal clear optics, and some amazing frames that'll fit your face. And it all comes at a price that won't break the bank. Shady Rays is an independent sunglass company offering a world-class product, rated five stars by over

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Well, Jesse, we know the numbers don't lie, but only the. numbers don't lie. People, they definitely lie. I lie all the time, even despite what I say on the show. But it's easy to lie, right? Sometimes we want to lie about our age typically when you're a 43-year-old father like I am. You make yourself younger, right? That's pretty much the time. But there's other times in life where you want to make yourself older. But with major league baseball, of course, especially as a Dominican Republic, a Dominican prospect, you want to make yourself younger. And that's what someone did, Jesse. It's not the first time that this has happened, but this is the latest for sure, and there was a whole lot of money on the line.

According to ESPN, MLB reportedly has found that a Dominican prospect with a $4 million deal with the Padres lied about his age, this investigation found that teenage prospect, Caesar Alta Garcia, Alta Garcia, falsified his paperwork and is actually 19 years old, not 14, as he previously claimed. Now, why is that a big deal? Well, when you go read some of the things like scouts had to say about it, they definitely talked about how big and strong he was compared to the other 14-year-old boys. That was a little hilarious to me. But it's also obviously a big deal. This is like a verbal agreement to sign with the team that's going to happen down the road. But this is the process where this is the reason why every MLB team has like an academy in the Dominican Republic

is because there is just a wealth of talent there of these. And everybody's trying to find the next, you know, the next big hot prospect that, of course, they can sign to a deal when they're not even old enough to drive a car yet. Yeah, this whole system is a mess, right? Oh, it's right for fraud. It's absolutely right for fraud. It really is. These situations are unfortunately bound to happen.

And I know a lot of the attention has gone. toward this individual. I don't even know if we know his real name. We know that he was assuming the name, Cesar Altagrazias, as you mentioned earlier. I'm not exactly sure what the situation is there, if that was like an alias of some sort. But yeah, I mean, a lot of the attention goes to this individual

finding a way to make it look like he was five years younger than he actually was. But on the other hand, like the San Diego Padres had a $4 million contract, like prearranged. with a 14-year-old in at least from their perspective right that's that's what was happening from their perspective uh it's a verbal agreement that i think when he turns 17 i believe or 16 years old then they would have actually signed an actual agreement right because you can't actually yeah there's a there's a minimum age you can't sign until you're until you're at least 16 uh so yeah

i think this situation also illustrates how weird it is that even if this even if the the age had not been falsified that what was happening here was a 14 year old who was agreeing to a multi-million dollar contract several years before he could actually receive it. This whole situation is pretty messed up. It's just wild because I watched a documentary I was telling you about where like parents were kind of holding kids back in like junior high school so that then when they played football in high school, they were older and bigger and stronger than their classmates. that was like an actual problem that they were having in football and parts of the country, right?

And I mean, again, this is because part of the scouting of you, again, they're looking for qualities of a grown man baseball player and a small child. So if you are a grown man at 19 years old and lie about your age, you are obviously going to look like a bigger prospect. Like he was one of the top prospects out of this class. In fact, he was one of three players in the cycle that signed for more than $4 million. So there's other kids that are also verbally committing to this $4 million plus deal with teams. We know the Diamondbacks have an academy down there where they're also scouting talent like this. But I mean, this is wild because a little, I think like 15 years ago, there was a situation with Jim Bowden and the Nationals where the Nationals got defrauded by a 19 year old prospect who was going by the name of. of Esmilian Smiley Gonzalez, which was not his name.

He turned out to be a 23-year-old who actually named Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo, and the Nationals had paid him already, Jesse, a $1.4 million signing bonus. That man robbed the Nationals of $1.4 million. And like, I don't know. I don't know if there was any attempt to recoup the money or if they even could. Yeah, yeah. Because you signed him and, you know, whatever. But I would think that fraud and not being the actual.

actual person whose name is on the contract would be enough for there to be some sort of action here. It just, it feels like based on what we're reading and this article from ESPN and Yahoo Sports also kind of chimed in on it that this unfortunately is a byproduct of, I guess, this kind of mad dash to make these kids a part of your organization long before they have a chance to like sign with someone else signed for more money. I mean, I don't even know the case. Like, it just, it's just wild. This is the reason why we have drafts in Major League Baseball. This is the reason why sports don't let teams just go out and start offering contracts to 10-year-olds who can kick field goals and stuff and football. Like, this is wild to me. Yeah, it, it's really bizarre because you're right.

Like here, you know, players that are, that are stateside, the process is pretty simple. It's a draft. It's kind of what the other sports do. And yet for recruits, you know, players that are, you're right. recruiting international amateurs. We have this bizarro system where teams are trying to discover these guys as early as they possibly can. They're trying to, you know, basically come to a handshake agreement with them as young as 12 or 13 years old. And then at that point, they're trying to have them work out at team facilities to basically hide them from any other organization from discovering them.

It's a really messed up situation. And I think the union, I think the league. both understand that it's a messed up situation. There was some momentum during the last CBA negotiations to try to institute a draft system for international amateurs as well, which I think would just make way more sense. But like a lot of things, they were not able to come to an agreement on that during the last CBA negotiations. And so we continue to have this really wonky system that unfortunately incentivizes players

like this teenage prospect out there in the Dominican, you know, looking for life-changing money, understandably so. And apparently he did a pretty good job with the paperwork and whatnot because that's a pretty major thing to pull off. What's wild about is even a quarter of that amount of that amount is a life-changing money for a lot of us. But, I mean, again, I don't have experience. I don't even need a quarter of it.

Yeah, I mean, seriously. Yeah. I'm overjoyed. But like I'm saying, like, I mean, I, lived in Puerto Rico. I know how, I mean, again, I haven't lived in Dominican Republic. However, they're similar with the exception of Dominicans sharing an island with Haiti and that Haiti can be a pretty unsafe place at times, right? So it's like there's times where like, again, I understand how from an impoverished country or somewhere that you're trying to make a better life for yourself

that like this might not seem like that big of a deal either to a Dominican kid that he lied about his age a few years. Like, what does it matter? I'm not 14. I'm 19. It makes all the difference in the world when every scout is talking about your muscles and your height and your size, right? Like, it's just, it's a weird system. And again, it's kind of like a lot of things in baseball. It's like what's happening with the deferrals, right? With the Otani deferral. And I don't mean to somehow complain about the Dodgers while talking about this incident that doesn't include them anyway.

But that's what I'm going to do right now. You buckle up because that's what's happening. No, but I'm just saying, like, there comes a point where like, okay, you open. in this kind of Pandora's box. And now what is to keep every other team for Major League Baseball and going out and pursuing free agents and having them defer it. I guess it ultimately comes up to the individual and not most baseball players aren't making the kind of money on the side that someone like Otani is making, which allows him to defer

those payments because he doesn't need that cash right now. And again, it can help the team out. It does feel, though, like we are going to see more of that happening. And then eventually baseball is going to have to do something maybe about that. because it just feels like circumventing the rules. And in a way, that's kind of what this feels like to me is like you go down and you talk to a kid at 13 years old and you have them verbally agree to something. And it's like, I don't like this. I don't like the way that it's set up.

And it just feels like there should be something to oversee it. And again, like you said, they don't want to. They feel like it's going to impact the amount of money that these kids can make or make it a more complicated process or whatever the case may be. but it's right. It's what's right. Even if it does make it more complicated, even if it limits them from making more money or as much money as they can under the current system,

it just feels like it's a safer way to operate than allowing your major league baseball teams to pay a guy a $1.4 million signing bonus who wasn't at all that individual that he claimed to be. Right. Yeah, it's not just the falsified age that gets me. It's the false identity. Identity, yeah.

The Padres didn't even know what this kid's name was. I mean, it's unbelievable that, but yeah, I mean, I think it's just the system just lends itself to this kind of behavior on both sides, really. I mean, not the Padres necessarily did anything morally wrong on their side. There's lots of, there are lots of players out there that have come to similar agreements, maybe not for as much money as this agreement was. Right. But come to similar agreements with kids that are at that age in the Dominican. and again, it just, there's so many things that feel wrong about it. And I mean, we're probably oversimplifying it.

I'm sure in the Dominican, there's still like parents involved and other things involved because of the age of these kids, right? Like you can't just be going up to a baseball field and be like, hey, kid, you want a lollipop? You want a $4 million contract? You know, like that seems like a creeper and like you're wrong, right? But I mean, it still feels like, again, this, the safety might be useful, not only for the players themselves to understand like everything more about what they're getting themselves into

and maybe what options they have, but safer for the teams that are attempting to sign these young people that might not even be the person they claim to be. I think I need to see your birth certificate, Derek. I don't even know. Is Derek even your real name? That's never going to happen.

Are you? I'll never show you. Are you five years older than you've been telling us all along? I'll reveal that at all. I would make myself younger than 43, okay? Again, like, they talked about him shooting too high. He should have said he was only, like, 17 instead of 14.

Yeah, you're not wrong. I get it. Yeah, he shot too high. You should have made him be 17. I don't know. I don't disagree with that. Like, you got to be a little bit closer to your age. Age is really an important part of the equation, though.

Like, how highly a team will view you as an international amateur very much connected to your age. Yeah. If you're, like, if you're doing certain things and you're 14 or 15, and you're already looking like a guy who could, you know, hold his own and in the minors or whatnot, you're a much more interesting prospect. And if you're doing that at 18, 19 years old or whatever. So it's a huge part of the equation.

And again, it just makes it all the more lucrative for people to do things like this, where they try to fudge it. And apparently they're able to pull it off. Look, we've all watched Little League World Series and thought, like, I would sign that kid right there. When that kid, Big Al, Jesse, looked at the camera. that I hit dingers, I was ready to give them $16 million right there on the spot. Like at least half of the Little League World Series participants are also falsifying their age, right?

Like, can we all agree on that? There's no way those kids are 12. It's so rough when you're a real 12 year old and then you have to go up against that and you look across the field at like some other law. You're like, no, there is no way. But I also felt like that going to my high school. Like for some reason when we would play football against other high schools, their football team was just bigger.

Like they were just bigger people than us. I didn't understand how that was allowable or whatever. But anyway, thankfully the Diobacks have avoided all of this nonsense and hopefully they will continue to do so. It's not like they haven't had their share of bad situations with prospects as we know in the past. But of course, none of them are nearly as bad as being defrauded by one of them. So what we will do is continue to monitor the offseason. continue to keep an eye on any names that might pop up for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Maybe we'll even explore the idea of trading Zach Gallant a little more, even though you guys will probably hate that. But, of course, we will be back tomorrow with another 1 PM episode. So make sure not to miss that, of course. In the meantime, you can follow us on Twitter. I'm at K-Ur-Man with a K. This maniac next to me is at Jesse N. Friedman. Of course, our guy, Kevin Thomas, on the ones and twos,

you can find him at Kev Tom Wright. So I'm going to make him change it to his official nickname. of big intimate so you can also start following the big intimate account wherever you find that on Twitter like at real big yeah at real big intimate yeah I wouldn't I wouldn't look that up yeah no he's right let's not let's not do that maybe if you're on public Wi-Fi it's kept on right okay well we won't look that up at work donkey says he wants to see as a mayoral candidate we need to see your paperwork I think that's a fair I think that's a fair no actually if there's want if there's anything i learned uh from don't

don't ever have to show you any of my paperwork no matter how much you asked me for it so uh i've realized that michael dixon good to see you in here and of course uh kyle danin says i'm not super opposed to a gallon trait since we should at least get something for him if we are unable to keep them in a dbacks uniform long term i like it we might be chattin about that tomorrow so make sure to join us then of course again our show is at p h and x underscore dbacks but all Rhodesley to at PHNX underscore sports on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. We thank you guys so much for your time. We hope to see you here tomorrow.

We also hope to see you add some Arizona Fall League games. Don't forget that home run derby is on Friday and the All-Stars game or Fall Stars game, excuse me, is on Saturday. So that's not to be missed. There should be some future Arizona Diamondbacks one way or another playing in that Fall Stars game, even if they have to acquire those people via trade. We'll see what happens. But of course, until the next time we meet, we hope you guys have a wonderful evening.

We thank you so much for your time. And remember, kids, baseball is fun, but it's so much more fun when you don't bet the farm for one year of Devin Williams.