PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Sully talks D-backs, Giants, and the value of the 2nd Wild Card Spot

Episode Date: July 25, 2019

Paul "Sully" Sullivan (@SullyBaseball), host of the Locked On MLB podcast, joins the show to discuss the NL playoff picture, the peculiar situation of the Giants, and the value of the second Wild Card spot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Your host, Jesse Friedman, is here with you, along with a special guest here on this edition of The Rattle Podcast. It is Paul Francis Sullivan, but we don't call him that. We call him Sully. He is the host of Lockdown MLB. You can find him on Twitter at at Sully Baseball. Sully, thank you for joining the show today. We really appreciate it. You bet, Jesse.

What's up? So you have more of a national perspective than I do. I'm a little bit over here in the Diamondbacks bubble. And so I would love to get your take on this playoff picture from that national perspective. Do you see the Diamondbacks having a legit shot at this wild? Well, first of all, the Diamondbacks bubble is very powerful. We all know the media is very much Diamondbacks biased. Right.

Just in terms of its coverage and in terms of intention. And it's like, yes, yes, yes, kettle marty. We know it. Come on, move on. I've never heard Diamondbacks bubble before, but that's because I've been either in a northeastern bubble all those years are there or now I'm in a West Coast bubble. But the Diamondbacks are in a strange conundrum right now because they are within striking distance of a playoff spot for a team like the Diamondbacks giving their fans a trip to

the playoffs in a year where everyone thought was going to be kind of a lost season, a rebuilding season, is kind of like finding a $20 bill in a jacket you haven't worn in a few months. And you look at the teams that are in this scrum for the second wild card spot. There is no, well, let me be blunt for a second. there are only two teams in the National League that I think have a legit shot to go to the World Series. Los Angeles, obviously. I think they're the best team in baseball, and I think I picked them to win the World Series. I stand by that pick.

And Atlanta is a fine team. You can see a scenario where Washington, who has played very, very well since Memorial Day, and they have Scherzer and Horbin and Strasbourg, 1, 2, 3 in their rotation. You could see they could possibly pull off an upset. but then I don't see them beating the Dodgers if they get out of the wild card game. So honestly, if any city is looking and saying what team is going to win the pennant this year, I honestly think Atlanta and L.A. are the only two teams that have legitimate shots. You know, the Cubs could win the division or they could miss the playoffs altogether.

The Cardinals are within striking distance of the lead in the Central, as we're recording this. They could be the NL Central champions, avoid L.A. and the wild card game altogether. Or they can miss the playoffs altogether. Milwaukee, who should be running away with a wild card spot right now, can't seem to get out of its own way. Philadelphia always puts an oozy to their foot. And as I said, when you were a guest on my show, Lockdown MLB, there's a plug. There has to be a second wildcard team. That's going to happen.

They're not going to be like New York. We're only doing one this year. So someone has to be that team. And the D-backs are as flawed and as good as any of the other teams. So they could very well just Mr. McGu-it into the postseason, especially if one of these teams has a nosedive. And the Diamondbacks had a nosedive last year, as did Philadelphia. If, you know, San Francisco can certainly go on a losing streak,

the Cardinals are certainly up and down, Milwaukee can't seem to get out of its own way. There could be a point where at the end, the smoke is cleared in the deep acts of 1, 83, 84 games, and that's enough. Right. The question is, is going for that second wildcard spot for the honor of either getting shut out by Max Scherzer or getting your butts kicked by Los Angeles, is that enough of an incentive for a team to not rebuild or a team to sacrifice some of their future to go for that second wild card spot. And that's the really tough question that Arizona and San Francisco to another degree have to deal with because they have a lot of quality trade chips.

And the teams that they're chasing really, it's going to be an 83, 84 win team in the postseason as a wild card team. And so that's, is it worth it that much to have that on? honor and is it worth the young players to sacrifice? And that's a really legit question, especially if you can give fans in Arizona a bonus year that they didn't expect to have. Sully, I know that everybody in baseball, I think, digs the one game playoff, right? It is like it is a spectacle like none other.

It's like a game seven except in both wild cards. You can mark it down, end of, or I guess the beginning of October. it's happening. And along with this spectacle of these two games, which I think is good for baseball in some ways, like you said, it's putting a lot of teams in a very confusing position, like the Diamondbacks, like the Giants that you mentioned as well, in that these teams are closer to a playoff spot than maybe they should be. And with these front offices, because they're left with this decision of, you know, do we want to take a flyer on the second wild card thing? If we get in the game, there's still only, you know, a 40, 50% chance of moving on,

depending on which team you are and whether you're playing home or away. And it's difficult to determine, like you said, is it worth it to go for something like that when you've got the Dodgers waiting for you afterwards? Or is it worth it to, you know, just play for next season or play for the seasons beyond that? despite being so close to a playoff spot. Solie, do you think that the second wildcard spot is good for baseball? Yes, I do. Absolutely, I do.

I think that anything that keeps the playoff hunt going and get, look, I'm right now in the San Francisco Bay Area, and both teams in the Bay Area are wild card contenders, and as of right now, both teams are the second wild card team. And there is, look, there's always going to be more interested in. the Giants than the A's in the Bay Area. That's just a fact. But A's fans are going nuts. Giants fans are loving that they've climbed back into it.

And both fan bases know that this is probably what this year is going to be. And so, but it gives a reason to go to the ballpark. It gives a reason to go to the games. Right. And usually, with very few exceptions, I mean, how often does that second wildcard team really go far? Yes, you had San Francisco winning the World Series in 2014. Boom.

Yes, you had St. Louis getting to the league championship series, game seven of the league championship series in 2012. But most of the time, the second wildcard team were like the Rockies when the D-backs beat them. I mean, a really hard trivia question to ask people is, who lost the wildcard game each year? You could win a lot of, if you know those, you could win a lot of trivia contests. You know, last year it was Oakland, and I actually had to stop and think about who was it last year. Wait a second. It was they had to, oh, that's right. It was the Cubs because they had to play the playing game to play in game.

Right. So, yeah, last year was the Cubs. But I had to stop and think about it. Right. You know, I mean, you know, the D-BACs beat the Rockies a few years ago. The Yankees beat the Twins. I guess it. I bet you anything, if you ask me, when was the last time the twins were in the postseason?

If you go, I don't know, maybe when Kent Herbeck was. there? No, it was 2017. But that being said, I think it's more important and this is going to sound weird. I think it's more important for two types of team.

Either A, a team that has thrown a lot of money into this season and just need to get into the playoffs. It is critical for the Phillies to get into the postseason by any way shape or form. They haven't had a winning season since Ryan Howard collapsed in a heap at home

played at the end of the 2011 postseason, they've had a losing or 500 record every year since, and they've just spent the gross national product of Venezuela to bring Bryce Harper into the team, pushing all the chips at the center of the table, and all of a sudden the Nats are better than them. They have to at least get into the playoffs. Even if they lose the wildcar game, they can say, hey, we've taken a step, we got you to hear. Milwaukee, with the success they had last year, nearly getting to the World Series, have to get into the playoffs because you can say, all right, we got back in and we'll take our chances, because this would be, you know, it's a huge step backwards if you go from game seven,

the NLCS to not even being a playoff team. So you might see those types of teams be more desperate to get in. For the Diamondbacks, who were in the postseason just a few years ago, to the division series, and oddly never seemed to have a great gap between their playoff spots. You know, if you look at the history of the debacks, there's never been a huge drought. Right. You know, there have been some lean years, but 99, 01, 02, little, little dip, 07, little dip, 11, little dip, 2017. Like, those aren't huge gaps for a relatively small market, you know, or low revenue team.

So the sense of urgency is not there for Arizona as much as it is for Philadelphia and Milwaukee. And you can also make the case for St. Louis, who pushed their chips to the center to bring in your boy, Goldschmidt. And so for those franchises, and I think it's critical for St. Louis because they're a franchise that's used to being in the playoffs year in and year out, and they haven't been since 2015. So when you look at those teams, there's a sense of, look at making the playoffs, is essential. If we finish the season, we're not even a wildcard team. That's a disaster. And those three franchises I just mentioned are that. You started this season and I said, hey, Jesse, if the Diamondbacks don't make the postseason, would you consider it a disaster? I have a feeling you wouldn't say, oh, yeah, it's a total disaster. No, you would be like,

oh, I'm not expecting them to. You mentioned the San Francisco Giants earlier, who I think you're a a good story around baseball frankly they've won nine out of ten games they seem to just as the as the season is plugged on here and especially as we approach the trade deadline they're left with a fascinating decision right now whether to deal madison bum garner despite what he has done especially over his last five starts or so i believe he has a sub two e r a he's been about as good as madison bumgarner has ever been and the other element of this which is really interesting is that this is Bruce Bochy's last season. And from my, you know, you're a big Giants guy. You know, you mentioned you're in the Bay Area as we speak right now.

This is an interesting story because I look at the Giants roster and I'm like, no way in heck does this team have any business going for it or making the playoffs or doing anything of that kind. This is not 2016 anymore. and it seems like the heyday of a lot of these core Giants players has passed. Pablo Sandoval somehow Giants and is still very productive. But nonetheless, this Giants team has come out of nowhere. They've been really, really good as of late.

And although I don't think it makes sense to buy in general, the fact that Bruce Bochi and what he means to that community and how good of a manager he's been for so many years there, the fact that this is his last season, I could legitimately see a viable reason just in that alone and try to chase after one of those wildcard spots. I agree with you. It is a borderline nightmare for the front office for the Giants. Right.

Because look, on June 27th, less than a month since we were recording, the Giants with the second worst team in the National League. They were closer to the Marlins than they were to the pirates. They were 20 and a half games out, but also like 12, 13 games out of a playoff spot at that point. And at that point, it just was a no-brainer. It was an absolute no-brainer. This team's going nowhere. We have these tradable chips. We should cash in. And if the Giants played merely well over the last. last month. If they just were good, that would be the perfect scenario because that means you're getting good performances from your veterans, and therefore you'd probably get more value

for them, Samarsda and Will Smith and everyone. But what happened is they played extraordinary and are winning all these extra inning games and these exciting games and walk-off games and the fans are coming back. I mean, I went to a Giants game earlier this year. It was half empty, and now it's the place to go again. Right. And there are enough players left over. Posey, Belt, Panic, Crawford, you know, Bung Gardner. There's still enough players that it's a giant flavored product,

that it kind of seems enough like the teams that everyone remembers that one of the World Series. And it's Bochie's last year. I honestly believe if you gave them truth serum in the front office, they would have wished that they played really well, but not this well, because they know that this is a seller's market for someone like Bumgarner or Will Smith or Jeff Smerist or whomears or whomever it is. And they could get real, they could, they could restock their farm system. But if they trade now, they would just alienate the entire

fan base. And if the players, they get back, don't turn out to be, you know, if it doesn't turn out to be the new Tim Linzigum, then it's going to be a catastrophe. And so it is a weird situation. The Giants could be a disaster. They are one two-week stretch of bad baseball away from being a sub-500 team in August, which is the definition of it's over. And being a, and with the front office saying the trade deadlines come and gone, this is the worst time for them to have this stretch.

Right. The best thing would have happened would have a great stretch, and then the last week, ah, they lost a bunch of games, now they're five back. Well, that was fun for a couple of weeks. Goodbye, everyone. And I think people would have understood.

But the fact that they're now back in contention and that nobody in front of them seems to be running away with it, the Giants, I think, have a more realistic shot than Arizona does at this point. And I would put their shot about as even as something like Milwaukee, who seems to be panicking. Wow.

And what will be really interesting is if the Cardinals overtake the Cubs, and the Cubs fall back to one of the wild card positions, that there could be panic in Chicago. And I think this is Joe Madden's last year that they're anyway. But if there's any team that seems ripe to have an absolute utter collapsed in the final third of the season, I think it's Chicago. And if that happens, and with, you know, Madden leaving and they're stuck with a bunch of veterans, you know, 2016 is going to seem like a long time ago. But it's odd that the Giants are in this

position because, as I said, just a month ago, the Marlins were in striking distance of them. Soley, that is great stuff as always. Yep. Oh, yes. Look at how arrogant. That was great stuff. Yep, I did. Stuck to landing.

Sully, how could people... Follow me on Twitter at Sully Baseball. On Instagram, I'm at Sully Baseball podcast because someone already took Sully Baseball on Instagram. And it's S-U-L-L-Y baseball, not E-Y, like the... Monsters Inc. movie. It's like Sully the Pilot, not Sully the Monster.

And if you want to listen to me, Yap about baseball five days a week. Check me out on Lockdown MLB on all your podcast devices. And check out the feed, the Twitter feed, which my PIN tweet is the in-memorium video that I do for every All-Star game, which was unveiled the weekend, the Sunday before the All-Star game this year. We honor the likes of Frank Robinson and William M. McCovey, Don Newcomb and Tyler Skaggs, and Bill Bruckner. And I even threw in salutes to former President Bush and the director of League of their own Penny Marshall, because they all left

their imprint on the game as well. Soley, we appreciate you yapping with us for a few minutes. Thank you so much. Ah, man, this was fun. Anytime.