PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - Why ZiPS Projections LOVE The Diamondbacks In 2025

Episode Date: November 15, 2024

JOIN THE DIEHARDS FOR JUST $4 A MONTH! https://www.gophnx.com/intro-offer-yo... The MLB offseason is just getting under way, but FanGraphs has already released its ZiPS projections for the 2025 Diamondbacks. What do the numbers tell us about Eduardo Rodriguez? What about Jordan Montgomery? We also discuss special guest Jack Sommers’ offseason plan for the Diamondbacks, Ketel Marte picking up some more hardware, a heartwarming story about Yu-Min Lin and more. Join Jesse Friedman, Jack Sommers and Shane Dieffenbach on the PHNX Diamondbacks show! An ALLCITY Network Production SUBSCRIBE to our YouTube: https://bit.ly/phnx_youtube ALL THINGS PHNX: http://linktr.ee/phnxsports MERCH https://store.allcitynetwork.com/coll... ALLCITY Network, Inc. aka PHNX and PHNX Sports is in no way affiliated with or endorsed by the City of Phoenix PHNX Events: Get your tickets to PHNX events and takeovers here: https://gophnx.com/events/ bet365: https://www.bet365.com/olp/open-accou... Use the code PHNX365 to sign up, deposit $10 and choose your offer! Disclaimer: Must be 21+ and physically located in AZ.  If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-NEXT-STEP, text NEXTSTEP to 53342 or visit https://problemgambling.az.gov/ Bluechew: Try BlueChew FREE when you use our promo code ALLCITY at checkout--just pay $5 shipping. That’s https://bluechew.com promo code ALLCITY to receive your first month FREE. Visit for more details and important safety information, and we thank BlueChew for sponsoring the podcast.. Zbiotics: Go to https://zbiotics.com/phnxdbacks to get 15% off your first order when you use PHNXDBACKS at checkout. Pre-Alcohol is backed with 100% money back guarantee so if you’re unsatisfied for any reason, they’ll refund your money, no questions asked. Empire Today: Schedule a free in-home estimate today! All listeners can receive a $350 OFF discount when they use the promo code PHNX. Restrictions apply. See https://empiretoday.com/phnx for details. Branded Bills: Use code PHNX at https://www.brandedbills.com/ for 20% off your first order! Gametime: Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code PHNX for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Circle K:  Join Inner Circle for free by downloading the Circle K app today! Head to https://www.circlek.com/store-locator to find Circle Ks near you! Shady Rays: Exclusively for our listeners, Shady Rays is giving out their best deal of the season. Head to https://shadyrays.com and use code: PHNX for 35% off polarized sunglasses. Try for yourself the shades rated 5 stars by over 300,000 people. Check out FOCO merch and collectibles and use promo code “PHNX10” for 10% off your order on all non Pre Order items. Rugged Road: Gear up for your next adventure with Rugged Road Coolers - Your ultimate outdoor companion! Head to http://ruggedroadoutdoors.pxf.io/ALLCITY and use code PHNX for 10% off! Get 10 FREE meals at https://hellofresh.com/freedbacks. Applied across 7 boxes, new subscribers only, varies by plan. When you shop through links in the description, we may earn affiliate commissions. Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Coming up on this edition of the PH&X Diamondbacks podcast, we have the Zips projections. We're going to talk about what the Zips tell us about the 2025 Arizona Diamondbacks. Plus, our special guest, Jack Summers, has the perfect plan for what the Diamondbacks should do this off season. We're going to discuss that as well. Don't go anywhere. We'll be live right here in 30 seconds. Welcome in to today's edition of the PHNX DVAC show.

Coming to you live from Studio K presented by Circle K. Join the Inner Circle for free by downloading the Circle K app today. Terms and conditions apply at participating locations. Visit circlek.com for details. Well, my name is not Derek Montia. I am Jesse Friedman driving the show today here on PHNXDbacks. Derek, of course, learned that we were talking about the Zips projections on today's show. And actually, he ran off to probably Healer River resorts and casinos or somewhere where he could have some actual fun instead of nerding out with us here on the show. So instead of of having Derek with us today, we have the one and only Jack Summers, who does a great job covering

the Diamondbacks for Diamondbacks on SI. And honestly, I can't really think of anyone better to nerd out about projections for the 2025 Diamondbacks than Jack Summers himself. It's a geek fest. Thanks for inviting me. I know I'm in the right spot. It is a geek fest. It's going to be a great time. Well, it just happened yesterday. Some of you might have seen it. The Diamondback Sips projections were released over on fan graphs. And usually we don't get these projections this early, I guess the Diamondbacks won the Zips lottery and we're the first team to have their projections release. So, I mean, winning the Zips Lottery, that's the same thing is basically winning the 2025 world series, right, Jack, it's basically the same thing.

It's really random how he says about it. It doesn't send him out alphabetically. It's been like this big mystery trying to figure out what his criteria is to decide who comes out when. So it was quite a shocked to see D. Becks up first. Yeah, I think it's, I think it's random, I want to say. I've never been able to find any rhyme or reason whatsoever. But anyway, we're going to go ahead and jump into the Zips projections and what they tell us about the Diamondbacks in 2025. But I guess before we, before we get there, I do want to talk about just what projection systems are in general. I think a lot of people don't really understand exactly what these projections are trying to do. Poor Dan Zimborski, who is the very brilliant mind behind all of this takes a lot of heat on social media

because his projections aren't always right. And then people come attacking him on social media. Like, what happened, Dan? I thought you were supposed to be good at this. But Jack, maybe you can lend some light on exactly what the goal of something like Zips is. Well, the number one tenant to remember with Zips is Dan Zimborski hates your team. Correct. Yep, that's a great starting point.

No, you know, look, they're projections of where the player's Dan's today and where he might be going. Yeah. So they use multi-year data. They wait most recent years more heavily. Dan's been doing this for 25 years. And over time, he's been able to incorporate a lot of different new tools and data that's become available.

So all the Stackcast tracking data and all these new things that we've just really had exposure to the last few years, those have worked their way into his system. But projections are not predictions. They're just a baseline for where a guy's at. Right. You know, one thing I can tell you is that having worked in the Diamondbacks front office, they use projections. They're definitely part of the plan.

But a major league team is also, of course, heavily dependent on your scouts and their coaches and what they see in a player. And a good front office melds the two together. So, you know, nobody should be relying on these. exclusively, but if you ignore them out of hand, you know, and say, well, we're all geeks, you're missing the forest from the trees. Yeah. And I think the track record of Zips, I'll just say real quick, is it seems to be pretty

impressive. The goal is not to be accurate 100% of the time or even like 70% of the time. If you predict or if you project that a guy is going to have 4.4 wins above replacement or whatever for next season, the chance of you being exactly. correct is it's almost impossible really um but the idea is to be sort of right in the middle where you're going to underestimate 50% of the time you're going to overestimate 50% of the time uh but these these projections give us an idea of kind of what that what that middle ground what the most likely outcomes might look like um i think the other thing too and dan writes this

he every year when zips comes out he has a article that explains exactly how it's run you can find that on fan graphs yeah um if you just look under dan zimborski i think he put it out on the 12th, but I'm just going to read one quick section that he wrote. He said, even if inserting my opinion would improve a specific projection, I'm philosophically opposed to doing so. Zips is most useful when people know that it's purely databaseed, not some unknown mix of data and by opinion. So sadly, he does not hate your team. You can't lean on that crutch if you don't like the projection. Well, with that said, let's go ahead and jump in. We're going to start on the position player side, but first of all, we can look at this helpful graphic that just shows the big picture.

This is what this is what Dan has. If you're wondering what all of these numbers on the screen are, these are wins above replacement projections. So when you see Carroll in right field at 4.3, that is saying that Diamondbacks are projected to get 4.3 wins above replacement from that position. Of course, Carol getting the majority of the reps there and the same idea sort of across the board here. We're going to start on the position player side, Jack. I guess I know you've poured through all these numbers. What stands out to you? Well, the first thing that stood out to me as we were talking about earlier was when I sort the projections by OPS,

three of the top six players are no longer on the team. They're free agents. Christian Walker and Bell, who are only five points separated by OPS, by the way. It's crazy. You know, of course, Jack Peterson. So that's a lot of offense to replace right there. Randall Gritchick, interestingly, only has about 709 projected OPS. So the other thing is that there's only two players in the vicinity of 800 OPS.

Cattell at 833 and Corbyn Carroll at 794. So, you know, there's a lot of slugging and a lot of offense that they need to make up. Well, let's, you mentioned Cattel there. as well as Corbin. I guess let's maybe start with those guys. Corbin, I think his projection is especially interesting if we can pull up his projection from Zips.

Obviously, 2024 was not a great season for Corbyn Carroll. And you look at these projections for 2025, Jack, and they don't jump off the page. These numbers are really not all that different from where he ended the 2024 season, projecting a 256, 345, 449 slash line with 21 homers and 4.3 wins. above replacement. This is sort of a repeat of Carroll's 2024 season, give or take.

Yeah, you know, they wait the most recent performance, right? And it's really important to understand that Corbyn actually his kind of downturn in numbers started in mid-June of 23. You know, so they go back a year and a half and come up with similar numbers to that. Right. I think his from June forward, June 14th forward and 23. to the end of the year is OPS was only about like 785. So, you know, that first half or first two and a half months of 23, obviously, should maybe be more reflected because of his age and trajectory. Bottom line with Corbyn is, is how is he going to respond to the swing changes he made

and the corrections he finally made last year and will that carry forward? So Corbyn last season, or I guess this past season, was at a 749 OPS? that's where he finished off. So they have him at a 789 for 2025. So a bit of an uptick there. I guess going to Catelle Marte. Obviously, Catell has won quite a bit of hardware lately. It feels like he is nominated for an award or wins an award basically every single day.

And this is his projection for 2025, a 27345-449 slash line and 24 homers. Jack, my guess is that most people looking at this are like, that's it. Kattel just had, you know, a 950 OPS or whatever it was and at 36 bombs. This seems like a bit of a downturn from what we saw this season. Yeah, actually, I think his OPS might be a little higher than that from what I downloaded. They have him, from what I downloaded, was at 833 OPS. It's 350, 483. Yeah, you know what we did is we combined Katel's batting average and Corbyn Carrolls on base and slugging.

So that's my bad. Yes, this is supposed to say 273.50, 483, which is definitely a higher projection for sure. I think the 24 homers is accurate. But even so, like 270, 350, 483, that's still a fairly far cry from the player that could tell was in 2024. Maybe I digress a little bit here. It looks to me like Dan is projecting a somewhat depressed offensive environment. environment for 2025.

We'll see that when we get to the pitching side. Some of these ERAs are quite low. But also like when you compare it to steamer projections, basically his OPS projections are lower like 20 points across the board. Yeah. On average than what steamer has. And people should keep in mind that steamer and Zips combine the average of the two to create Fangraph's depth charts projections.

So they do combine those too. Right. So I think, you know, when you look at this, you have to take into account that he's lowering the league environment. Yeah, that's a great point. Other guys that stand out here to me, Geraldo Perdomo is one name I'd like to take a look at. You know, we talk a lot year after year about how Geraldo Prudomo's baseball savant page is not usually the prettiest. Although there are some things that are very pretty, the chase rate, the whiff rate, those numbers are always extraordinary. for Heraldo Pardomo.

The batted ball, you know, hard contact stuff, not so much. This is his projection for 2025 at 248, 340, 355, slash line, six homers, and 2.1 wins above replacement. In some ways, Jack, you know, this is certainly below where he was in 2024, but in some ways I'm surprised that Zips doesn't look at some of those underlying batted ball numbers and be a little bit more skeptical of Pardomo, like to project him for, you know, like to project him for a 340 on base percentage, that's a really valuable player. And I guess I can understand, like, say what you will about the batted ball numbers,

but Pardomo has been basically that guy here for the last couple of years spanning almost a thousand plate appearances. It seems like maybe the computers are starting to buy in that Pardomo is just able to outperform those numbers. I have more upsized when I was 24th. I think that's part of it. I mean, you know, certainly the aging curve comes into play here. Sure.

As he gets a little older, they're probably projecting him to hit the ball with a little bit more authority. You know, 695 may not look like much, but that's a 94 OPS plus. It's just scraping the bottom of league average for a good defensive shortstop. That's a really valuable player. Other guys, real quick, Jake McCarthy, if we can pull his up, we'll do a couple of these rapid fire. 266, 329, 389, 8 homers, 1.6 wins above replacement. if we flip over to Alec Thomas, I think these are two guys

that we're constantly comparing back and forth. Not a huge difference in total value. They have Alec Thomas at a 252-303-400 slash line. That's an OPS just over 700, 10 homers, and almost the exact same war figure at 1.7. This is one of the big questions that the Diamond Baxter are going to have to grapple with this offseason, Jack, is which of these guys do you value more?

Are you willing to trade one of them? and if you are willing to trade one of them, which of these guys do you trade? You know, I have somebody asked me on Blue Sky today, you know, which the exact same question. Sure. And, you know, my response was, depends on what the other team wants. You know, it's not what the debacks want to get rid of. It's what teams are interested in which player.

Right. And a lot of times the way this happens is some teams, you know, hitting coach or scout may say, hey, I can fix Alec Thomas. I can help him figure out how to get the ball off the ground and tap into his. his clearly better power. Right. You know, and they may convince a GM like, hey, take a chance on this guy. I can fix this.

Other teams like the Royals, you know, they're looking for a lead off hitter that gets on base and can run and they want it now because they have a window. So maybe they'd be more interested in Jake McCarthy. Sure. So it really depends on who's calling and what they need. Yeah, it's a great point. I think we often forget that when we're thinking about trades. It's it goes both ways.

It's a two-way street trying to make a trade with. another team. Pavin Smith, his projection is significant because as of right now, he is your everyday first baseman. He is projected to slash 248, 333407. I think this works out to a 105 OPS plus, something like that. 13 homers, one win above replacement. Jack, obviously, 2024, was a huge step in the right direction for Pavin. Not the biggest sample size in the world, but it was impressive. And I don't know. How do you feel about this? Does this make you feel like? like Pavin is deserving of some everyday reps at first base, or does this maybe steer you in a different direction?

Well, here's where you need to get into the subjective, right? Dan even mentioned this in his article about the debacks. I mean, it's an underwhelming projection. There's no doubt about it. And it's a little hard to hand wave away the previous thousand-plus plate appearances before the 140 successful plate appearances he had 24. So that's what's happening there, right? But, you know, eyeball test.

We watched every game, every at bat. He looked like a different player, right? I mean, he was elevating the ball with authority. Yes. And that's what looked different. Like, you can't just look at flat exit velocity. The guy was hitting the same exit or even a little bit better, but the launch angle was higher, right?

He was hitting the ball in the air more. They weren't just flat line drives and ground balls. He was booming some fly balls. And so that's what we saw, you know, and if we can get more of that, then that's something that's hard for the projection system to pick out. Sure. And because of the sample size. Like if he did that over 600 plate appearances,

then Zips would be booming for Phaven Smith. But it is a small sample size. Well, we all know that if Pavin were taking all of his plate appearances against Justin Verlander in 2025, then he based to be Barry Bond. So we'll see how many, how many PAs he gets against Verlander next season.

Real quick, to finish things out here on the position player side, I sort of expected calculations like this projection systems to not be so high on Gino-Swarres. And sure enough, this is what we have for Zips in 2025, a 233, 312, 414 slash line 23 homers, 2.3 wins above replacement. This is still a valuable player. I think it is a player that you can argue is worth the 16 million that the Diamondbacks are paying him. However, it is not the Gino-Swaris that we saw in in 2024. specifically in the second half of 2024. Yeah, I mean, again, here you have to hope that the subjective comes into play.

You know, he altered his pregame routine, tapped into some different ways of approaching. He's got that first half, second half deal going on. So maybe if they can help him overcome that, then the year-on numbers will look better. But he's getting older, right? Yeah. Father time. Yeah, undefeated. Who else do we still have?

Lordus Gurriel Jr. I know Groundhog Mama is interested in what his numbers look like. For Lordus, we have a 272-319-427 slash sign for 2025. 15 homers 1.6 wins above replacement. It does feel like the numbers for Lordus are kind of moving in the wrong direction, but not at an alarming rate. I think Lordis is making, what, 14 million this year or something like that. And this is, you can live with,

with paying this player $14 million. Yeah, for me, the only caveat, and it's not anything that's put out there, but just something I've been looking about. And recently Jake Oliver for us wrote about it. Right, right. Is his issues with handling the fastball last year. His numbers on fastballs really took a big dip. Yeah.

So, you know, hopefully that's a one-off because, you know, if a guy's not catching up to fastballs and hitting fast balls hard, sooner or later they start cheating. And once they start cheating, then pictures pick up on that. And then you start to see those really awkward swings and trying to dig sliders out of the left-hand batters box and stuff like that. Then you become Evan Longoria from the second half of 2023. It was a little rough. Groundhog Mama says, can you do a show where you compare the 2024 zips against 2024 actual final numbers, which is a fantastic idea.

We'll have to do that at some point. Gabriel Moreno, finishing things out here in terms of the starting position. players 284, 357, 408 slash line for him, seven homers, 3.3 war. There's a pretty big number. They're only projecting 373 plate appearances here, which I think is fairly realistic. Gabby has gotten hurt the last couple of seasons. You're never going to play a catcher every single day. This is a pretty healthy projection for a guy who's maybe playing two-thirds of your games. Yeah, Zips loves Gabby, Marino. It really does. That here, you know, because he doesn't have a ton of major league played appearances,

those really big minor league numbers that he put up still weigh a little bit more heavily, right? The further you get away from your minor league track record and replace that or major league app, so it doesn't count so much. But if you look at his career, I don't think he's got, you know, he's nowhere near a thousand yet. I think he's like seven something, 800, whatever. Right. So, you know, that's a big part of it right there. Well, we're going to get to some more Zips projections here in just a couple of minutes.

What does Zips have to say about Erod? What does Zips have to say about Jordan Montgomery? Some of the bench bats that the Diamondbacks have that could be really important in 2025. We're going to get into all of that on the other side of this break. So don't go anywhere. Well, if Derek were here, he would brag about his home ownership journey, starting with Desert Financial Credit Union and the extremely low interest rate that may never be achievable again in American history.

But Desert Financial was certainly a big part of his life. and it can be a big part of yours as well. One of my favorite things about Desert Financial Credit Union is that they have exclusive debit cards that are branded with your favorite sports teams. So if you want your debit card to like have an Arizona Cardinals logo on it, for example, that's something that they can do for you. If you're a sports fan, it's supposed to take up your entire life, right?

It's supposed to be all-encompassing. And that's something that Desert Financial can do for you. Look to Desert Financial for checking and savings accounts, mortgages, loans, credit cards, investment options, and more. join a credit union that is committed to giving back to the community and sharing success with its members. When you open a free checking account online, get $200 in bonuses, and you can get started by visiting desertfinancial.com slash 200. Also want to tell you about our friends over at Chicken and Pickle. Jack, how's your pickleball game? Non-existent.

Non-existent. All right. Well, mine is basically non-existent, too. I've played once at a staff party here at PH&X and it was not pretty but if you were into pickleball which i know many people out there are and I aspire to be one of those people chicken and pickle is absolutely the place to go not only do they have great options for playing pickleball but they also have amazing food as well it is it is a great place to hang out we've had a whole bunch of events a whole bunch of next events out there. It's always a great place to hang out. They also have a ping pong table, which is, which is maybe my one, at least one of my favorite amenities on the property because what I lack in pickleball skill, I very much make up for with my ping pong games. They just need to

shrink pickleball for you essentially. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Yeah, the pickleball fee, I have to like move my legs in order to play pickleball. It's too difficult. But head over to chicken and pickle.com to see all the fun you can have at their Glendale location. All right. And with that, we jump back into our Zips projections here, Jack. I guess we'll start with some of the bench guys on the position player side real quick. Then we'll jump into the pitchers. Adrian Del Castillo, I think, is an important name here.

We don't have a fancy graphic for Adrian Del Castillo, but I can read out. His projected slash line is 238-307-396. that works out to a 94 OPS plus. Jack, those numbers are a far cry from what we saw from Del Castillo in 2024. Yeah, we talked about this in the press box, right? Which is basically what we're doing here is just peeking out like we're doing in a press box all day. That's a lot of fun. But we really were shocked to see just how ill-supported his batting line was by the underlying batting-ball metrics.

Yeah. They just weren't there. And I think that's what's happening with this, plus the fact that he simply doesn't have enough, it was an 80-something major league played appearances. So it's a lot of regression to the mean. You know, they got to plug in. This is what an average minor league leaguer does when you only got 85 major league played appearances.

So I think that's what's going on here. You know, my advice would be to temper expectations. Adrian came up. He was hotter in a house on fire for the first 40 played appearances. appearances, but man, did those strikeouts pile up and the contact grew a lot weaker. Yeah. You know, a couple of good moments after that, but for the most part, his last 40 or so played appearances not too good.

Yeah, very much agree there. He did have some epic moments. I mean, I remember him tying a game with a three run homer in Tampa Bay. I remember him hitting a walkoff home run against Jeff Hoffman, if I'm not mistaken, in one of his first games in the big leagues. And he also had that home run in Miami when he was. had a whole bunch of friends and family in the ballpark. The storylines for Adrian Del Cascio were off the charts.

He was a lot of fun to watch in a lot of ways. But yeah, the team clearly had concerns about his defense. And for people who were puzzled at why the Diamondbacks chose Jose Herrera over him toward the end of the season, it was clear that the defense was a big factor there. That's not to say that Jose Herrera is necessarily a gold glove caliber defender, but Adrian Del Castillo struggled a little bit. defensively, I think in all facets. So that'll be an interesting thing to monitor going into 2025. Also on the bench side, Jordan Lawler is another name that I want to touch on real quick.

His projection, Jack, does not look particularly good. 226 302, 341. That's a 79 OPS plus. Obviously, we haven't seen Lawler much in the majors. He had that cup of coffee toward the end of the 23 season and the numbers then we're not we're not particularly good. This is strikeout driven. He's striking out too much. Yeah. I mean, he's a good young player. He's eventually going to hit whether or not he's able to reduce his strikeouts enough

to get to that talent in the major leagues early on is to be TBD. I think the other thing I just add here as we're talking about Lawler, I mean, if you look at the whole gamut of guys that are likely to be on. you know, get certain amount of Major League appats this year. Yeah. It's Del Castillo, Lawler, and then you throw in, you know, Jorge Burroughs, Tristan English, Blaze Alexander, Tim Tawa. I mean, these are names in AAA that are all going to see some level of major league performance this year.

Yeah, very well, good. And, you know, they're projected between 630 and 646 OPS. They got a lot of holes to fill on offense. Yeah. There isn't a impact minor leaguer coming that you can. just say, oh, plug this guy in, and he's going to, you know, hit above average all year long. They don't have that guy. Well, Gino Groover is pretty close here, Jack.

They've got Gino Grover at 255, 315, 402, a 99 OPS plus. So just a tick below average. That is a pretty bullish projection for a guy who's, you know, has not even played much in AA at this point. But, yeah, some interesting names to monitor on the position player side. I think the biggest takeaway there is that, yeah, the Diamondbacks have some, some, holes to fill you lose you know your your number three hitter at least against righties in jock peterson you lose your cleanup hitter and christian walker uh things things look quite a bit different um at the same

time i would still say like i think the core of a pretty good offense is there uh it's not like if the diamondbacks were to even if the diamondbacks did nothing this off season to upgrade the offense i don't think this is like the 25th ranked offense in the game i think it's probably somewhere in the middle and with some additions you could maybe push it back toward the top. Switching gears over to the pitching side. I guess, I don't know, who do you want to start with here, Jack? There's a lot of interesting names to get to.

I think we've got to start with number one, the ace. Okay. All right. Zach Gallen, a 3.45 ERA projected for 2025. Strikeout rate of 23.2%, which would be, I believe, the lowest of his career by a fairly wide margin. 7.6% walk rate projected, 3.75 FIPP and 2.9. wins above replacement.

Yeah, what do we think? It's interesting that, and we'll be talking about this when we talk about a couple of the other guys, the gap between the ERA and the FIP, watching Zach all year, I mean, what did we see? Like, you know, how did he do that? He somehow got through five innings and only gave up one or two runs despite all the walks or all the hits, right? Like, how many times have we see that? His pitchability, clearly, I mean, you know, he's a veteran. knows how to get out of trouble.

And I think that's being captured here in this projection. I agree. Yeah, this is sort of a pretty similar season to what he had this past year and even in 2023 and ERA in the mid-3s. No huge surprises there for me. Where the surprises really set in Jack are, at least for me, was with Eduardo Rodriguez. If we look at his page real quick, this feels bold. And it's only 105 in a third innings.

I guess there's some durability questions that are, probably feeding into that, understandably so. But a 3.67 projected ERA for Eduardo Rodriguez, strikeout and walk rates right around league average, 1.6 wins above replacement. I don't know about you, Jack, but the pitcher that we saw in 2024 did not look like someone who was maybe going to put up these kind of numbers in 2025. Yeah, it's a bit of a mystery. I can't figure.

I tried to peel back like what might be behind this, and I don't have a good answer. you know, just give it the old finger in the air. I will say like Eduardo, if you look at some of his underlying stats from from 2024, and it was a small sample, right? He made what, 10 starts, something like that. His FIP was in like the mid fours. I know his ERA was up over five. But he did bounce back nicely kind of toward the end of the season,

looked a little bit more like the pitcher that you would expect him to be. And yeah, I guess this is a case of Zips, just not reading. too much into Erod not being great. He had a 3.3 OERA, I think, in 2023. Yeah. In a lot more innings. And if you've got to remember, these are weighted, you know, most recent heavily, but it's also a sample size issue, right?

What do you have, you know, 50 innings last year, had 150, 60 the year before? And so 2023 is certainly informing this projection when he had a 3-3 ERA. but I think as fifth was almost a run higher, right? Yeah, yeah, I think it was. Well, if the E-Rod projection is surprising to you, just wait till you see Jordan Montgomery's projection for 2025. Here we go. A 3.93 ERA after he was in the six and a half range in 2024.

Strikeout rate, not great at 18.7%. Walk rate, 7.5%. But a FIP of 3.98 and Wins above replacement at 1.6, basically the same as Erod. This one, Jack, feels almost impossible to me. But I guess there's a chance that Montgomery bounces back

and there's a lot more, there's a lot more history of him looking like this pitcher than there is history of him looking like what we saw in 2024. Yeah, I mean, initial first glance, it does not pass a smell test.

It does not. Something smelled. But, you know, look, the odds are, He's not going to be on the team anyway. That is a very fair point. Based on the reporting we've gotten, it seems like things are trending in that direction. Although, when pushed, you know, is there a scenario where Jordan Montgomery is pitching for the Diamondbacks in 2025?

And he said, yes. Which I feel like he kind of has to say that in some ways. I don't know if you can say that there's no way a guy returns to your team in 2025. Sticking with the rotation here, honestly, all these numbers look pretty good. we just keep on going. Brandon Fott. If we go to him next, 159 in a third inning is projected. A 3.84 ERA, that is pretty darn good. 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate. His walk and strikeout rates are the best of anyone in this starting group. 2.3 wins above replacement. I think this is the season that you hope to get from Brandon Fought in 2025.

He hasn't really shown the ability to put that together yet. This is actually a good opportunity to emphasize that all of these projections include a great deal of regression to the mean. Sure. So last year, Fought had, you know, a FIP, a run lower than his ERA, give or take, right? And it was all of the other nerdy peripherals like expected ERA and XFIP. I think we're in the exact same range. So no projection system is going to project that kind of gap. Yeah.

Right. They can. I mean, it's some, it's an outlier type situation. So you're never going to see a projection system come up and say, well, here he is a 375 FIPP but 475 ERA. So Dan mentioned in his article how the projection system still doesn't believe in Fought's ability to prevent runs to his underlying peripherals. Right. But the difference is so much smaller than what we saw. And that's due to the regression to the mean.

But within the scope of these projection systems, 0.22 difference is actually a fair. fairly large difference. And it's just, it's kind of like the anti-Zac gallon. Sure. Where, would he have 3, 4, 5, 371? Yeah, he's out to, he's outperforming the underlying numbers. So those are those, you know, when you get over 0.2 difference between FIPP and ERA in either direction in a projection system, that's actually a big number. Most of the time it's point one to one something or less. Merrill Kelly, let's see what we got there. It feels like projection systems never really have bought into Merrill Kelly being a top flight starter. And that is sort of the case here again, a 3.87 ERA strikeout rate just under 20% walk rate around 7%.

A 4.24 FIP, which is significantly higher. So this is someone that the projection systems are starting to buy into Merrill Kelly outperforming those underlying numbers. But even so, a 3.87ERA, I mean, we've seen Merrill do better than that in the past. Another factor here is Zips buys into the team defense. Sure. Which is definitely a factor here with these. Yeah, that's a great point.

Ryan Nelson is the other, the other member of that six starter group that we have right now that we haven't touched on. These numbers also pretty decent. A four, a four ERA right on the dot, 19.2% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, similar to Merrill Kelly with those numbers. FIP of 4.14. so they actually have him outperforming his fit just a little bit here. And 1.6 wins above replacement from Ryan Nelson. I mean, zooming out here, Jack, this is six starters, six starting pitchers with projected ERAs of four or below.

Right. That is a dramatic difference from where this team was in 2024. So I think, again, I got to point out that if you go to steamer and remember, steamer and Zips 50-50 make up fan grass. depth chart production. Yeah, like the projected standings that people are probably familiar with. It's the recipe includes both. Depart standings, all of that.

Yeah. And, you know, Steamer has only one pitcher with a sub four ERA, Zach Gallen at 393. Interesting. Everybody else is over four. Nelson's a four or five two. So part of that is what we talked about before. The league run environment's different. So when Fangrass comes out with their final, you know, in February, when they come out

with their blast and they put their fangress step charts out you're going to see they call it fgdc fangrass step chart um there's going to be an average of these two so if zacks at 393 and three four five whatever the averages of of those two yeah that's what he's going to come in at um so just keep that in mind when you look at these because it's all going to be balanced out uh other guys worth mentioning on the pitching side i guess the the bullpen at large if we can pull up the the kind of big picture a Zips graphic that has all of the different positions and whatnot. They have, I guess they total up all of the reliever production and they come out with 4.8 war.

That seems like a really big number to me, Jack. I don't think we've seen a Diamondbacks bullpen projected for 4.8 war ever, question mark. Like, I don't think I've ever seen that from this team. Yeah, I mean, the components are there for a pretty darn good bullpen, health willing. Yeah. And, you know, as you've talked about here on the show, plenty, if you throw in, you know, a top flight closer to that mix, then you really have something. But these are definitely encouraging numbers. I mean, you got Justin Martinez and AJ Puck.

I mean, they're relatively young, you know, and coming off outstanding seasons. And then you have a baseline level of competency behind them with Ginkle Thompson, Mantipli. You know, you just got to hope that they're healthy and don't wear it down. Yeah. I guess in terms of starting pitching depth, we all know that for as good as those numbers looked for the Diamondbacks top six starters on the depth chart. It's going to take more than six starters to get through 162. And something that I was honestly shocked by looking at these Zips projections is that almost all of the Diamondbacks depth starters project pretty favorably. Christian Mena a 4.09 IRA.

Like, goodness, would you take that? I mean it came up and out of 409 yards. Slade Sikoni, whose ERA was well into the six range last year, a 4.14 projected ERA. Tommy Henry, who we hardly even saw in the majors, really struggled when he was up with the big league team, 4.28. Umin Lin, who's pitched one game in AAA, 4.21.

Blake Walston, 4.15. Yelbert Diaz 4.20. According, Zip seems to buy into the Diamondbacks is having extraordinary. starting pitching depth, as far as I can tell. And I'm not sure I fully buy into that, Jack. I don't know how you feel. Yeah, I mean, obviously, it's an optimistic viewpoint.

I think where you go here is you have so many guys. So all you need is a couple of them to be decent, right? So if you got, you just rattled off what, six names or whatever, you know, if give me two of them being good. Don't ask me which two, right? Yeah. Yeah, if these Zips projections actually were to happen, the upgrade for Diamondbacks pitching in 2025 would be enormous. I mean, these numbers are, I know you mentioned the run environment seems to be a little diminished with these projections. We should factor that in, but this is a Diamondbacks pitching staff that is worlds better than what we saw in 2024.

Yeah, I think, you know, just as I look at the projections that have come out, what I see is, kind of what you see is an offense that probably drops to the 10 to 15 range unless they do a really good job of filling some of the gaps and a defense pitching that probably rises off the floor from 27, you know, up into 15 to 20 range. Yeah. It would be a very different team than what we saw in 2024 where the offense was amazing and the pitching was terrible. But there is a version of that where you take some strides forward on the pitching side and you take a step back on on offense and you could wind up with a team that is that is just as good or maybe even better if things go the way the diamond backs want them to well i don't know what diamond back should do

this off season and you might not feel like you know either but jack summers he knows he came up with a plan for what the diamond back should do this off season that is comprehensive we're going to dive into that on the other side of this break, so don't go anywhere. Well, one of my favorite partners here at PH&X is branded Bills. If you are in the market for some swag, then branded Bills is definitely the way to go. They have partnerships with ASU and U of A as part of their campus collection. I, of course, have come out lately as being a big U of A guy, even though I attended neither university and hate on Tucson as a city.

regularly on this show, but somehow I'm a big U of A guy. I have one of their U of A hats. It's great. They're beautiful. Brandon Bills has you covered with the best custom headwear. Star Your Order and their dedicated team will help you create the exact custom apparel that you need, whether you need snapbacks, truckers, fitteds, beanie, or teas. They have you covered with performance and style.

I am trying to get one of their Arizona state hats as well right now because those are beautiful and extraordinary. and you should get one if you have not already. You can head over to brandedbills.com and use code PHNX for 20% off your first order. Jesse, I'll get you one if you put that you of a hat somewhere else. I'll think about it. That's a fair, fair proposal.

Also want to tell you guys about our friends over at Circle K, which is where I went yesterday after I finished the show because I needed gas and regularly. Circle K has some of the cheapest gas you'll find anywhere in the value. There are also, of course, America's Thirst Stop. As I mentioned from the top of the show, you can join the Inner Circle, their free membership program. It's great. You can save money on things inside, and you also save money on gas, and it is free.

So why would you not do that? Saving 25 cents per gallon for your first five fillups. That's also a pretty nice perk. So, yeah, join the Inner Circle for free by downloading the CircleK app today. Terms and conditions apply at participating locations. Visit CircleK.com. for details. And Jack, it is now time for you to tell us the future.

Tell us the future that, I guess maybe not the future, but the future that you have envisioned for this Diamondbacks team, you had an article over on your site, Diamondbacks on SI, where you basically created an off-season plan for the Diamondbacks, one route that they could take this winter to get this team in at least a good position in 2025. And you came at it from a realistic angle. You're not running a $250 million payroll or something like that. You operated within the constraints that it appears the Diamondbacks are dealing with.

So, yeah, I guess can you just sort of walk us through what you have in mind? So there were actually two articles. The first one I wrote was free agency leaves a huge hole in the Diamondbacks lineup. Sure. You know, the five free agent hitters that are leaving this team, unless they bring any of them, them back, accounted for 69 of the team's 210 homers and 244 of their RBIs and a 126 OPS plus. I mean, basically a third of your power production and 1700 plus plate appearances, poof, gone.

Yeah. It's a big hole. You know, how much of that hole is going to be covered by Adrian Del Castillo, Pavin Smith, and, you know, maybe Jordan Lawler or whomever. After looking at the zips for those three guys, it's hard to be not very much. too optimistic, yeah. So, you know, that, and they understand that. I mean, the team is very clear-eyed about what they have to do.

At the same time, we work within financial parameters. Really, from the get-go, it's been fairly evident that the team's going to probably be around the same payroll. Even before Mike said that on the radio the other day, it's been fairly evident that that's going to be the case. Right. They finished last year. Initial numbers showed like $172 million. When you add in the buyouts, the option buyouts, it might have jumped a little over 175. So give or take, we can kind of figure out where they ended the year and how they budget.

So, you know, kind of calling the appeal to authority, I did work for the front office many years ago, 15 years ago, still the same owner at the time. And some of the ways they do this accounting, you know, what they're looking at is an opening day payroll. Right. They have to look forward. They have to look at not just guaranteed contracts and R of estimates, but they have to look at the whole entire 40-man roster, what they got to pay those guys. They have to count for injury call-ups.

Right, right. So when you do all that, you know, I came up with 144, and you did the same exercise. You said you have 145, right? Yeah, something in that range for sure. So, yeah, it's helpful. It gives us an idea of sort of how much wiggle room the Diamondbacks have. if you're shooting for 170 something in that range, then you have roughly $25 million to spend,

although I know that the first step in your plan, or at least one of the steps, is to try to create a little bit more financial flexibility. Right. So the numbers I had in my article, which, by the way, was just simply titled proposing a simple, realistic plan for the Diamondbacks offseason. You can find that on SI.com slash MLB slash Diamondbacks. It is very simple. Diamondbacks on SI.

how to get a plug in there. All right. So, yeah, I had 26 million available, right? 144, 26 brings you to 170. Sure. Plus or minus. Maybe they go a few million more flexibility than that. But for the sake of the article and sake of this discussion, that's where I was at.

First things first, they need to move Jordan Montgomery as much of his salary as they can. Nothing revolutionary in that idea. I think, you know, from the beginning of the off season, even before Ken's comments, everyone's been assuming that they're going to try to do that. Right. So I had them being able to move half, 11 of the 22.5 million. I believe that if Jordan Montgomery was a free agent today, he's going to get a one-year, $12 million deal. Yeah.

I mean, he's still a veteran with a long track record. There's got to be half a dozen teams out there easily that can afford to. to take a one-year flyer on him at 12 million bucks. Yeah, agreed. You know, so I just had, I put it at 11. So that brought 26 million up to 37 million. So you've got 37 million dollars to play with this. That's important step one of the plan.

Right. And I would look for the Diamondbacks to try to do that as soon as possible because they don't really know who they can sign and what they can spend until that piece is taken care of. Yeah, that's a good point. So the next thing, and this obviously feeds off of that massive hole in the lineup, they need to bring Jock Peterson back. Now, Jock turned down a $14 million option.

Right. So it's certainly going to take at least that or more to bring him back. And he's looking for a multi-year deal. But he's limited. He can't play defense. He can't hit righties. I mean, I'm sorry, he can't hit lefties. Yeah.

There's a cap on his value. We've talked about that a lot here. I don't see a lot of teams rushing out there to give him a three-year, $45 million deal. So what I proposed was bringing Jock back at two years, $32 million guaranteed. That may be like $14 million salary and a two-year buyout of a third year $16 million option or something like that. So two years, $32 million guaranteed, average annual 16. You know, they need jocks left-handed power bat back at DH. It is hard to imagine what the middle of the lineup looks like without him.

Yeah, I mean, everyone may love Pavin Smith's potential, but I'm not buying it. Clearly, neither is Zips. Yeah, yeah, Zips is also not buying it. This is true. The second was Randall Gritchick. Now, this one's a little bit more of a stretch. He turned down a $6 million option. I have them signing Gritchick for two years, 14 guaranteed with a third year mutual option.

So again, the Diamondback – You love your mutual options, Jack. Everyone gets a mutual option. Well, sure. I'm going to ask for mutual option in my contract. Piggybacking off of my case. He's smarter than me, so I'm going to go with that. But, you know, again, you're looking at like, you know, two years, six million each year or something like that or six or seven million and then a buyout.

So 14 million guaranteed. They were willing to pay them $6 million. this past year, right? So do it again. Just add the extra year. Now, flipping back to Zips, Zips less of a believer in Gritchick's season last year. They only had a 709 OPS. But again, he's being, you know, he never had such a high ratio of his plate appearances

against left-hand pitching. Right. And presumably the Diamondbacks could use him in that same way. Yeah. So I'm confident that he can beat his projections based on that kind of breakdown. So if you're talking about guaranteeing Jock 16 average annual and Randall, I'm sorry, yeah, 16 and Randall 7, now you're up to 23.

We've got 14 left to play with at that point. And I'm going to stop you right there, Jack, because we have to do a quick ad break here. And then we'll get back to the second half of Jack's extraordinary plan for the Diamondbacks offseason. But real quick, I want to tell you all about. Real quick, I want to tell you all about Healer River resorts and casinos, which of course is where Derek Montia probably is right now as we speak. If I know him, Shane, I'm told that they have roulette tables that light up, which feels pretty, pretty cool. Yeah, I mean, they will tell you, like, the ball lands and, you know, whatever number it lands on.

It'll, like, I don't know if it's spotlight, some magician magic, but the number on the table will light up and it just makes you feel. I've never felt so immersed than when I'm on Healer River Resorts Casinos. There you go. It's beautiful. Healer River Resorts and Casinos is also the origin of my fantasy football team. That's where we did our staff fantasy football draft. We live streamed it in the whole deal. And I'm currently vying for first place, Jack, in our staff fantasy football league, even though I know basically nothing about football.

So anyway, if you want your fantasy football team to also be successful, maybe you should go to Healer River Resorts and Casinos too. You do you at Healer River Resorts and Casinos. Visit play atheela.com for more details. And speaking of Healer River Resorts and Casinos, we have a number of PHNX events there on the regular. I mentioned our staff fantasy football draft, which was open to the public,

but we have some other exciting events coming up here that you can take part in. Our PHNX Territorial Cup Takeover is November 30th, presented by neutral and branded bills. A pregame meetup we have going on at Bourbon Bent out in Tucson. Food and drink is included, as well as a game ticket to the Territorial Cup. Tickets are available for that over at go phtnx.com slash events. So be sure to get in on that if you have not already.

Going back to chicken and pickle, we also have our PHNX winter pickleball tournament taking place on December 14th. We doubled the field since our first tournament. We have 48 teams this year, which is outrageous. All skill levels are welcome, although I'm pretty sure that my skill level is probably not welcome. But it is welcome. It is welcome. Okay.

Well, maybe it's welcome, like, at large with the tournament, but like it's not going to be welcome with my teammates, whoever those people happen to be. But it should be a fun event. We'll have PH&X prizes. We'll have food and drink specials there as well. And the proceeds are going to Operation Santa Claus, which is another great aspect. of this event. Once again, you can find all the details for that and sign up at go phtonx.com slash events. And with that, let's go ahead and get back into it, Jack.

Where are we? Well, I'm going to backtrack just a little bit. A couple interesting comments I was reading as you were doing the promos. Alex Dagestino, one of our writers on SI, mentions Gritchick's desire for more playing time. So it feels like he wants a little bit more playing time. And that certainly is a factor. But he likes being in Arizona and he likes money. Yeah.

So, you know, if they give him two 14, say, come on back here, you know, you're set for the next couple of years. Yeah. And, you know, you can still get your 300 plate appearances in. I don't think that's an impediment for him. I think his market may be a little thinner than he might think. I could be wrong. It really depends on to what extent are teams willing to buy into Grishik against right-handed

pitching. Right. And my inclination on that, which I've said before on the show, is I'm not sure. sure teams are going to be willing to go there. His on-based percentage against Ritees was 274, I believe, in 2024. A lot of his production there was just because almost every hit he had was a homerunner, a double, and it really, really boosted that OPS. So we'll see, though.

It'll be interesting to see what his market looks like. And Cam also brought up a good point. You know, if they trade an outfielder, that'll open up some more PAs for him as well. That is a great point. Yeah. You know, so if the debacks happened, like, you know, you've got to think sequentially here, too, how some of this might go down. If they traded one of Thomas or McCarthy, right, after they dumped Jordan's salary,

then they can turn around to Randall and say, well, you know, we can get you up the 350 plate appearances or whatever. Sure, sure. So, you know, that's part of the potential areas there. So moving on, and again, I know you guys have talked about this, but it's not rocket science. Mike has said over and over that he wants a high leverage rate. reliever. And there are two guys out there that are on, you know, potentially on the market, Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley. We have discussed both at length. At length. And so they were trading for one of those two guys was part of my plan. You know, it's hard to know what the other

teams. I mean, look, when you say, hey, what would it take to get Ryan Helsley? I mean, if you're Mike Hason, that's what you're asking. Yeah. And they turn around and they give you, you know, Oh, Jake McCarthy and Joe Berdias. Well, Mike's not going to do that. You know, and it just depends if there's conversation to be had there. Sometimes it dies on the vine. Sometimes it keeps going. But if they can do that, financially it fits.

Sure. You know, it definitely fits financially. It's just a matter can they deal from their strength? Are there a starting pitcher or an outfielder that they're willing to give up that is enough to entice bringing in a Devin Williams or a Hells League. Well, apparently they have this great excess of starting, of quality starting pitching depth. Yeah, exactly. I mean, they might as well trade two starters with all these guys that they have, right? And Mike's saying, you know, he's been getting hit on, you know, all six of his primary starting pitchers.

So if he believes in any of these projections on the next line of six guys, then it might make him a little bit more willing to move somebody. Yeah. Besides Montgomery from those top six. You know, the other factor, of course, is that the Cardinals look to be doing some kind of a reset, rebuild, retool. whatever you want to call. They're definitely looking to get younger, for sure. So, you know, that's probably actually a greater possibility. In the article, I put Devin Williams, but Helsley seems like he's a better fit.

Yeah, maybe a better, because the brewers, you figure, are trying to compete again in 2025, whereas the Cardinals are, they're not necessarily tearing it all down, but they're trying to get younger. They're clearly targeting, I would think, different things in a trade than the brewers at this point. Right. So, you know, if you've done those first three moves, right, if you've brought back Jock and you brought back Randall, you've brought back a sizable chunk of your power, which I don't expect them to hit as well as last year. And projection certainly say that, but I expect them to hit better than the young players that they might try to fill in with if they don't bring those guys back. Well, surely you're about to bring Christian Walker back. Well, we'll get to that.

The cherry on top, right? Now you get down, so you add in, you know, I actually put $9 million in my article, but it's probably actually closer to $8 million. So if you $8 to $9 million to bring in one of these closers, now you're, or Ryan Presley, maybe you don't have to absorb all his $14 million salary, right? You know, maybe you make a deal with Houston. I would hope not for Ryan Presley. Yeah, but I mean, like he's another guy that could fill that role if you could work out the money aspect of it. Sure. Yeah, Helsley and Williams are shooting at the top of the market, maybe unnecessarily so. And they also, the fact that they each only have one year of club control, like, I'm a little skeptical that Mike Hazen goes down that road. We don't see Mike trade for guys with one year of club control very often, especially guys who are going to cost as much as I think those guys would. Right.

Now, in this world, it does actually result in Pave and Smith playing a fair amount of first base. and being the strong half of the platoon. And they're going to need a right-handed bat. And I got a chance to chat with our friend Bob Nightingale. And I asked his opinion. I said, you know, Bob's really keyed in, by the way. I know you guys like to make a lot of fun of him for typos on Twitter and all that. But he is a great guy, and he's really locked in with a lot of people in Major League Baseball.

And I learn a lot sitting around the lunch tables with him and the scouts and people at Chase Field. So don't just discount Bob Nightingale's input because he makes a typo on Twitter. Great guy. But anyway, talking to him, I said, you know, how do you think the market's going to develop? And, you know, he felt like, sure, with pitchers, especially starting pitchers, you're going to see a little quicker action than last year. But the opportunity to pick up a guy late for a little bit more, you know, lower financial terms, I think is still there when it comes to hitters. So, you know, guys like Justin Turner may be bringing back Josh Bell. Sure.

You know, perhaps. Carlos Santana maybe. Well, your dream is Santana. I think he's going to cost a little bit more than you're open. Santana is on paper the perfect platoon partner because he's a switch hitter, but he really just destroys lefties. That's kind of his calling card. And you really like the idea of that next to Payton Smith.

Could be a guy like Mark Cannon, you know, somebody along those lines to come in, and basically hit left-hand pitching and play a little first base. And, you know, somebody like Josh Bell, because he's a switch hitter, I can see him having except a one-year, five or six million dollar deal, maybe seven. So I see him being affordable. I see Justin Turner. I took a closer look at Justin Turner. I mean, oh, my God, 40 years old, right?

But he just hits, man. His underlying numbers, the batter ball metrics look okay to be. Yeah. Have you dove into those? Yeah. Well, I know that, I mean, with Justin Turner, his calling card is always just that the quality of the bat is so good. And he's not impacting the ball a whole lot of this stage in his career, at least as far as I'm aware. But when you draw a ton of walks and you're seeing a bunch of pitches, like you can still be a pretty valuable player, even if you're not hitting for much power anymore.

Then the next part of the plan I had, it's no longer viable, was try to bring Kevin Newman back for one year three million. They hit that number, right? They signed the Angel sign up for 2.75. Mike Hazen again said, look, I'm not going to bring Justin Lawler up here to sit on the bench and start twice a week. And, you know, based on the projections that we're looking at, neither him or Blaze really looked like a guy that, you know, you're going to be able to plug in there with all that much confidence, right? Yeah, well, real quick, we are coming up on the 2 o'clock marker here. So I just want to tell everyone watching on TV to be sure to join us. over on go p hnx.com where we are going to continue the conversation because jack's uh jack's evil

plan is not quite complete just yet so be sure to join us there uh yes kevin newman uh that's a little bit more complicated now that the diamondbacks uh unless they're going to trade for kevin newman after the angels signed him that seems a little bit complicated so uh yeah they're going to have to go i guess a different route in in that regard and i do think as we discussed on our show yesterday that's That's a decent loss. Like Kevin Newman was a really valuable player for the Diamondbacks last year, even though he was more of a utility type. And then actually just bring it home with Christian Walker.

You know, bottom lines, he's going to cost over $20 million a year average annual. Yeah. We started off with, what, $37 million to spend? You're going to give one third, two thirds of your spending budget to Christian Walker. With a DH situation that would feel very non-ideal at that point. I guess the question in my head is like what what's the what's the marginal value difference do you get more out of playing out of paying the dh platoon over what your alternatives would look like at that position or do you get more out of playing christian walker paying christian walker over what your alternatives look like there and i think i'm with you that if if you can kind of piecemeal a first base situation with paven and and you know a carlos santana or justin or whoever that is you could maybe see that like those guys guys combined not being the same as Christian Walker, but being sort of similar, at least. Whereas without Jock Peterson at D.H., it's like, it's just not going to be nearly the asset that it was

in 2024. We can recreate them in the aggregate. Correct. I'm so glad that you said that, Jack. You just became so much cooler. The other thing to note about Randall Gritchick is only half his plate appearance came at DH. He's going to play outfield, and he's still a league average outfielder.

you know so they'll still be able to use him in the outfield it's you know there's plenty of times where they're going to move kattel martay to go dh against left hand pitching right um you know throw an infielder in at second base so yeah um you know there's going to be other right-hand the lordis is going to play dh once in a while get him off his feet so some of those dh at bats against left-handed pitching don't necessarily have to go to randle gritchick he can go play in the outfield too so in summary you are trading jordan montgomery to someone and trying to save half of his contract. So you're saving 11 million there. You are resigning Jacques Peterson to a two-year $32 million deal with a third-year mutual option. You are resigning

Randall Grishik for 2 and 14 with a third-year mutual option. You are trading for Devin Williams or I guess it could be Ryan Helsley, someone like that. And then you are signing a right-handed platoon first baseman. One of those guys that we mentioned, maybe you could get someone like that for around $5 million. And then you are letting Christian Walker go. And in terms of a utility role, we don't really know. What does that look like without Kevin Newman? It feels like the Diamondbacks might have to make some other move in order to fill that spot.

Right. It's a 115 win team, right? Pretty clearly. I think that that team's a 90 win team easily. Yeah. You know, and especially with such a strong bullpen. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, I think this Diamondbacks team is going to look pretty different in, in 2025.

I guess not that different. I mean, if they went the route that you're suggesting, they actually look fairly similar. If you're bringing back Jock and Randall, then your first base situation looks a little different. You have a new closer. Outside of that, it's a pretty similar roster. So it should be interesting to see how all of this plays out. That is just about all that we have here on this edition of the PHNXD back show. Jack, I want to give you a chance.

to plug all of your all of your things here real quick before we before we go well um just visit us at s i.com slash melb slash diamondbacks it's arizona diamondbacks on s i'm in addition to myself we have Alex decasino Aaron Hughes jake oliver guys have an army yeah we got you know i have three excellent writers that you know we put out a lot of good content we are not a rumor mill i don't follow it every single rumor but we do analyze guys that are pretend good fits. And we report the news. We follow prospects deeply. Yeah. And, you know, I work closely with Jesse every day in the press box and we talk every day. And it's a pleasure to be here on the show. So, thanks. Yeah. Yeah. Well, what you guys have witnessed here over the last hour is basically what

happens in the press box with me and Jack, like every single day for, you know, six months. So, yeah, somehow we're not totally sick of each other. I guess we had a little bit of a break there for a few weeks and now we're now we're ready to talk ball again. But yes, thank you to all of you who spent your afternoon with us here on the PHNXD Back Show. Really appreciate your support. As always, you can give us a follow on all of the social media platforms. You can find me at Jesse and Friedman. You can find Jack at Shoo Wizard 59, if I'm not mistaken, which I imagine you're also there on blue sky now as well. So if you're a blue sky person, you can find Jack on that platform as well. Our beat account over on Twitter is at PHNX underscore debacks, but of course all roads lead to at PHNX underscore sports.

That's on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. Thank you again to all of you for joining us here on this Friday afternoon. We hope you have an outstanding weekend. And remember kids, baseball is fun, but it's so much more fun when Dan Zimborski Zips Computers run the entire universe.