PHNX Arizona Diamondbacks Podcast - With free agency looming after 2024, should the Diamondbacks extend Christian Walker?

Episode Date: December 29, 2023

Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker has been among the team’s best players on both sides of the ball for the past two years. Would would it take to bring him back beyond the 2024 season on an extension? We also take a look at GM Mike Hazen’s promising track record with extensions, and the latest on Trevor Bauer’s hunt for an MLB pitching job.An ALLCITY Network ProductionSUBSCRIBE to our YouTube: https://bit.ly/phnx_youtubeALL THINGS PHNX: http://linktr.ee/phnxsports PHNX Events: Get your tickets to D-backs Takeovers, Knockout Nights & Suns Watch Parties at BetMGM, and MORE here: https://www.eventbrite.com/o/phnx-56002330273 Desert Financial Credit Union: Open a free checking account online with Desert Financial Credit Union and get $200 in bonuses https://www.desertfinancial.com/200Schedule a free in-home estimate with Empire Today! All listeners can receive a $350 OFF discount when they use the promo code PHNX. Restrictions apply. See EmpireToday.com/PHNX for details.Sign up for Gila River Resorts & Casinos $1,000,000 Big Red’s Showdown! Stay in the game and get rewards; it’s that easy! https://www.gilamilliondollarshowdown.com/Gametime: Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code PHNX for $20 off your first purchase.Circle K:  Join Inner Circle for free by downloading the Circle K app today! Head to https://www.circlek.com/store-locator to find Circle Ks near you!OGeez!: OGeez! is not your average cannabis-infused gummy. Head on over to https://www.ogeezbrands.com to find out where you can purchase. Must be 21+. Enjoy responsibly. Four Peaks: Follow them on social @fourpeaksbrew & @fourpeakspub! Must be 21+. Enjoy responsibly. WYNK Seltzer + THC: Go to https://drinkwynk.com/ and use promo code “PHNX” for 50% off. Must be 21+. Enjoy responsibly. When you shop through links in the description, we may earn affiliate commissions. Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome in to the PHNX DBAXDBACs podcast. My name is Jesse Friedman. Here holding down the fort as Derek Montia is in the chat. The audacity, Jacob. The audacity to show up on the day off in the chat. He's coming in here on the fact that you and I are about to do back-to-back shows. And he's just skiing us. He's probably taking some OGs is what he's doing.

As I said, welcome into the PHNXDBAC show. Shout out to OG's Brands. official sponsor of flavoring Fridays. OGs is not your average cannabis-infused gummy. They absolutely knock it out of the park when it comes to flavor and the effects of their gummies are a total slam dunk as well. Derek in the chat can attest probably right now. Head on over to OGsbrands.com to see their full lineup, including their two newest

gummies, the OGs naturals and the big OGs and find out where you can purchase. Well, welcome into the show, everyone. I know I put in the Discord a note about. one Sean to pause making his triumphant return to the PHNXDBAC show that is not today. That is happening tomorrow. We will have a Saturday show here at PHNXDBax because, of course, we didn't have a show on Christmas. And when we miss shows, you know, even on major holidays, we have to, we have to make up for them.

We have to do, we have to do justice to the people and give you guys a full week of lovely Diamondbacks content every single week here on the PHNXDBAC show. So yeah, Skiy to everyone in the chat. Appreciate you all being here today. As you can see from our headline, the big thing I want to dig into on the show today is Christian Walker and the fact that theoretically, he would become a free agent after the end of the 2024 season just a year away. Mike Hazen has certainly built up a reputation over the years to sign extensions, often extensions that have worked out pretty well for this team. And before we get into the specifics with Christian Walker and what an extension. before Christian Walker would look like.

I wanted to start out by looking back at some of the extensions that Mike Hazen has signed over the course of his Diamondbacks tenure. We have them all here on a neat little graphic. Going back to 2018, the first big one and arguably the best one. I don't even know if this is arguable. I guess the Corbyn Carroll extension, obviously very early to be assessing that. It certainly looks good as if right now. But the first extension that Mike Hazen signed in his tenure as Diamondbacks GM,

goes back to 2018, five years, $24 million for one, Cotel Marte. This was after the 2017 season leading into 2018. Cotel Marte was solid in 2017 for the debacks. Had a productive year in his first year in Arizona. He was not anything like the player that we saw this past season or have seen, you know, in 2019 in 2021. He was not a star level player. But sort of a trend with some of these extensions is Mike Hazen kind of timing

these things perfectly and sort of being able to sense when players are about to take that next level, although I think even Mike Hazen would say that he probably didn't expect Catell to become the player that he ultimately did. This was a five year 20, a five year 24 million dollar extension. It ended in 2022, but it had club options for 2023 and 24. So basically on this extension, I know we did a draft of all of Mike Hazen's best moves a couple weeks ago. This move was Jesse, can you just remind me? I knew you were going to do this to me, Jacob. And no, I'm not talking about who the people voted for is the winner of that draft

because the people were wrong and I should have won that draft, not Jacob Franklin. But yes, this Cotell-Marte extension was near the top of the list. On this deal, as I said, it ended in 2022, but it had club options for 2023 and 24, which I believe were originally $10 million and $12 million each. that extension was enough to keep Catel Marte on the Diamondbacks through next season. Of course, there was another extension that we'll get to in a second to follow that up.

That extension guaranteed 2023 and 2024 up those dollar values a little bit. But that five-year $24 million extension, I mean, for the player that Catel Marte has become just incredible value for the Diamondbacks. A couple years later, Mike Hazen struck with a pair of extensions prior to the start of the season, David Peralta and Nick Ahmed. We'll start here with David Peralta, three years, $22 million.

This is coming after a pretty productive season for David Peralta. He certainly had some better years and some not as good years throughout his many years in Arizona. But 2019 was certainly one of the better ones. He won a Gold Glove Award. He had 275 and 804 OPS, 2018 and even better season for him. That's the year that he won the Silver Slugger. and hit 30 home runs. Diamondbacks get him on a three-year $22 million contract.

It basically, he was already under contract for 2020, so they basically just settled on an arbitration number for 2020 or avoided arbitration by settling on a number there. And then this deal tacked on two more years for 2021, 2021 and 2022 at $7.5 million each. Peralta in 2021 and 2022 was not a great point. player, right? Not exactly a well above average regular as he had been earlier in his career, but he was still a reasonably productive Major League outfielder. He was worth 1.7 wins above

replacement both years. Of course, he didn't wind up spending that entire time with the debacks as they traded him to the Tampa Bay raise in the middle of the 2022 season. So that extension was fine. There was no, there's really no issues with that deal. You know, was it some enormous value? Was it like that Gatel Marti deal, absolutely not. But getting a 1.7 war outfielder for $7.5 million for a couple seasons. Certainly decent value there for the debacks. We go back to the list real quick. Nick Ahmed, I think, is the next one that we have here also in 2020.

Touch on this one real quick. This is the one extension on this list that in retrospect looks pretty poor, I would say. Not necessarily as terrible as you. you might think of it at first glance. Nick Ahmed was pretty productive in 2020, the first year of this. He was already under contract for 2020, but again, it was the debacks and Ahmed settling on a number for 2020 and then tacking on three years. Beyond that, he made $7.5 million in 2021 and 2022.

He made $10 million in 2023. So, yeah, it was good. It was good at the beginning. But of course, Nick really struggled with injuries. There was, of course, the thing with the shoulder and trying to find his way back from that. It never really happened. And obviously, 2023 was a really rough season for him. He made $10 million.

He was one of the Diamondbacks higher paid players. And yet he did not exactly perform like it. It was a weird year for Nick. We've talked about this a lot. He actually had good numbers against right-handed pitching. And then against lefties, which is sort of what his primary role on the team was. he really struggled. He had, as we looked at the other day,

it was like a single digit WRC Plus against left-handed pitching. Not exactly what you're looking for. Continue to be solid defensively. Obviously, the arm after the shoulder surgery was not what it had been. So we saw some regression there. His range was always pretty solid.

But overall, that is clearly the extension on this list that stands out as like, okay, that one wasn't so great. I don't think it necessarily buried the debacks. and these dollar values are not so high is to really cripple a team in the way that, you know, like a Madison Bumgarner move kind of has the last couple years, but certainly not a great move there.

The next one that we had happened was in 2022. This was the second Cotel Marte extension that I touched on earlier. This was five years and $76 million. This keeps Cotel Marte in Arizona for a long time out through 2027. There's a club option here for 2020. as well. I think it's a little early to be able to fully evaluate this extension. As I said earlier, that original five years, $24 million with the two club options was enough to keep Cattel in Arizona through 2024 as it is. So I think we need to see how he looks in 2024 and, you know, in the three

years beyond or have at least some sense of kind of how he's, how he's trending as he continues to age. But as of right now, it's not, it's not alarming. I think it's a, I think it's, I think it's probably a pretty good move. I mean, Cotel Marte was the NLCS MVP for a reason and continues to be a really productive member of this Diamondbacks team overall. Obviously, there have been some ups and downs. You know, Cattel in 2021 and 2019 was a much better player than Cotel in 2020 and 22. There have been some injuries for sure. But 2023 was a really complete season for him finding ways to not only do a lot of damage against lefties, but a lot of damage against righties as well. The next one, Jacob, Merrill Kelly.

And this one is... This is absolutely incredible. This one is pretty remarkable. The timing on Mike Hazen's part here was pretty impeccable. Two years, $18 million. So this was prior to the 2022 season. And that, of course, was the season where Merrill Kelly became just a different level of starting pitcher, right?

He comes out. He has a, you know, a mid-3s ERA. He had always been a productive starter for the Diamondbacks. And even if Merrill Kelly had stayed like a number four, solid number four starter, I think this move would have been pretty solid. But two years, $18 million that covered the 2022 season, the 2023 season. Pretty, pretty impressive stuff there. Sorry, the 2023 season and the 2024 season with the club option for 2025.

obviously Merrill Kelly was pretty darn good in 2023. And then 2024, he's certainly, the outlook there is very positive. People are viewing Merrill Kelly as being right up there with Zach Gallen. There are debates happening as we kind of touched on yesterday about which of those guys is the true ace of this team. You'd probably say Zach Gallen, but there was a case to be made that in 2023, at least Merrill was the more consistent of the Diamondback starting pitchers. So, yeah, remarkable what he's become and that extension, just incredible value for the Diamondbacks. He is guaranteed, I believe it's $9 million for this 2024 season. It might be $8 million.

I don't have that number in front of me. But it's a very valuable number for Merrill Kelly in 2024. And then in 2025, Merrill Kelly has a club option for $7 million, which the Diamondbacks might as well pick that up now as far as I'm concerned. It's eight. So the base for this year's eight. The luxury tax is nine. And the signing bonus was half. So it's adjusted at eight and a half. Yeah. So it's, yeah, so it's eight this year. They might, I don't know how they're allocating that signing bonus. Maybe you get some of that this year. But remarkable, remarkable value. And yeah, I think I agree with Michael McDermott in the chat. I think that Zach Gallen overall is is the better pitcher than Merrill Kelly. But the fact that we even have

that discussion, I think, says a lot about the progress that Merrill Kelly has made as a starting pitcher. And then finally, the most recent extension that has happened, a lot of people are already chalking this up as a big win, and I can't really argue with them. Corbyn Carroll to an eight-year $111 million deal. This contract is, I think, a big reason why a lot of people are excited about the Diamondbacks, one of many reasons. The fact that your star-level player is not just a member of his team through, you know, the standard six years, but has a chance to be a diamond back for a very long time. This deal has a club option as well for a ninth season. Could make Corbyn Carroll a member of the Diamondbacks through 2030, which is really, really

incredible. So yeah, and Mike Hazen has already talked about the benefits of this contract and how he feels like fans, you know, just the reality that Corbyn Carol. is going to be here for as long as he is. There's a lot of benefit to that to be felt even right now, just knowing that he is locked as an Arizona Diamondback for a member, as a member of the Diamondbacks for a long time. There is still some risk here on the back end of the deal, $28 million for $2029 and 2030.

I believe it's also a $28 million club option for 2031. You know, I mean, giving a player who you at the time had seen in about 30 major league games, $28 million guaranteed in his two first free agent years is a bold move. Like there is still, I think, some degree of risk here. But, I mean, whatever risk there was, I mean, in Corbyn's first full season, guy finishes fifth and MVP voting. I think it's pretty safe to say. Would you say, Jacob, you feel pretty good about the long term outcome of this one?

I think I actually joined you guys for that emergency pot when the extension was signed. And I think it was one of those like my friends were like, there's no way that he's going to be worth it as a guy, I promise. Like, yeah, I had been screaming for this team to take a page out of the Braves playbook for a long time because this is a very, that was a very Braves-esque signing where you've seen a guy, albeit it wasn't for very long, and then you're just, you know, you throw some money at him. But you're also getting him for a value that he would be worth much more than if you watched

a full season of what you had seen through those first 30 games. Yeah, that's a great point. At the end of the day, it's still a pretty team-friendly contract for a player of his caliber. 100%. Yeah, we've talked about that a little bit as well. The fact that if you had waited until the end of 2023, if you waited until now to sign a Corbyn-Carroll extension, the price is not $11 million guaranteed. We saw Julio Rodriguez get well north of $200 million last August. That was at a point where he was well into a very, very good rookie season and put up. honestly pretty similar numbers to what Corbyn Carroll put up in his rookie season.

So yeah, you're, I mean, you'd be looking at a much bigger price tag. So that as early as it is and as outrageous as it feels, to already chalk that up as a win, it's hard to see that not being a win for the Diamondbacks when all is said and done. So all this to say, Mike Hazen has built kind of a reputation for signing extensions. And by and large, the results have been pretty good.

I think that Nick Ahmed deal obviously not great, but the Merrill Kelly deal an enormous win. The first Cotel Marte deal off the charts win from the Diamondbacks perspective. The second Cotel Marte deal early on seems fine, a little too early to judge for me. David Peralta, not a ton of surplus value there, but still a totally reasonable deal for a guy that fans really liked having around even as he regressed a little bit in some of the later years. So yeah, Mike Hazen seems to be pretty good at this. An interesting question for you, Jesse, now that we were looking back on the Paul Goldschmidt train.

Yes. And that nobody here still exists from that trade. I mean, obviously, there's some trickle. Corbin or no. There's some trickle down, sure. There's some trickle down, yes. Dominic Fletcher was selected with the draft pick. Correct.

So technically he is. Had he signed him to the contract that the St. Louis Cardinals signed him to, is that worth it? Was it, was it five years? There's a hundred and five years, one thirty. Yeah. Yeah, we're going to win an MVP and be one of the best hitters in baseball for. Yeah, I mean, totally, totally. Yeah, that contract was totally worth it.

I think a lot of people at the time were surprised at how low that number was. I mean, even, you know, Paul Goldschmidt hasn't necessarily been the same caliber of player in his entire tenure in St. Louis. The first year that he spent with with the Cardinals, in fact, was not. one of his worst years in the majors, arguably his worst year in the majors, at least after sort of becoming a more established player up to that point. But, yeah, I mean, if you're the devaxe, you 100% should have signed that deal. And I know there were some financial limitations. But the fact that you, I mean, it's not an exact comparison,

but the Diamondbacks in some ways took the money that they would have spent on Paul Goldschmidt and put that on Madison Bumgarner, which obviously is a massive mistake. Hall favorite. I think Paul Goldschmidt is in pretty good position to be. And this is interesting if he goes in, what does he go in as? I think he probably would go in as a diamond back. But I don't know.

I don't know. I think that's up for his own consideration. I've seen some reports about the Cardinals being interested in an extension with Paul Goldschmidt, which would be interesting if he like finished out his career there and wound up spending like

just as much time in St. Louis as he did with the diamond back. So that was like an even split. I mean, he won the MVP with the Cardinals. He never was able to get over that hump with the debacks, even though he was a more productive overall player. So he deserved a range of a catch and I don't know. Yeah, yeah, right.

Yeah, these are ageal discussions that we can rehash time and time again. But yeah, it is interesting. I was listening to baseball barbecast the other day, one of my favorite shows that catch up on. And their first year, both of them, Jordan and Jake, their first years in the BBWA were this year, which is the same situation for me. And they were talking the other day about, you know, trying to project out, like, who is going to, who is going to hit the ballot in our first year voting for the Hall of Fame?

Because you get, you know, it's after 10 years. Once you've been in the BBWA for 10 years, that's when you get your Hall of Fame vote. And Paul Goldschmidt was the first guy they brought up is like, if you project out 10 seasons, right, it's five years after the end of their career. that you would hit the ballot. And yeah, it is possible that if I am a member of the BBWA, you know, still nine years from now and hit that 10th year, that Paul Goldsman would be one of the first newcomers that I see on the ballot.

For me, it's always been an interesting debate because if Freddie gets in, Paul gets in. And if Paul gets in, Freddie gets in. Because those two players are almost identical. Yeah, it's interesting how I think early in their careers, Goldie was the better player. and then as they've aged, Freddie has maybe aged a little bit better. But also Goldie won the MVP last year, so he's like aged pretty well too. This year wasn't quite as good for Goldie.

I'm looking at his baseball reference. He was at 3.4 wins above replacement on baseball reference this year. 25 homers, a 268 average, an 810 OPS. So this season was a little bit more of like that 2019 Goldschmidt with the Cardinals where he wasn't quite the same caliber of player. But yeah, he's still very powerful. productive. And the fact that he's that player at 36 years old and is slated to reach free agency

at the end of next season, which is something we're going to touch on here in a second, you know, he has a chance to play a few more years in this league and really cement himself as a pretty solid, pretty solid Hall of Famer. But yeah, we're going to go ahead and take a quick break here and tell you about illegal Pete's because this episode of the PHNX DBAC show is brought to you by Illegal Pete's. and I wouldn't have it any other way. Illegal Piz is outstanding. If you know, you know.

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So be sure to check out Shady Ray's if you have not already. All right, let's get into some of this Christian Walker chatter. I want to start by just looking at the season that Christian Walker just had. If we can get those numbers on the screen, Christian Walker in 2023, was a very productive player once again for the Arizona. Diamondbacks. He hit 258, a 33 on base percentage, 497 slug. He hit 33 homers. He drove in 103, which I'm realizing is, I think, the exact same numbers that J.D. Martinez put up, homers and RBI.

fun fact uh 3.8 wins above replacement in 2023 which is actually a little bit lower uh than what he did in in 2022 but he's still i mean he's basically coming off a back-to-back four war seasons which if you're not familiar with the winds above replacement sort of scale two war is kind of like a league average regular like a solid everyday caliber player that can totally provide some value in the majors um and then as you kind of move up the ladder you're just you're just getting better and better right four is Not an elite level player, not a, you know, not a guy who's going to get MVP votes. I think Christian Walker did get one downed-out MVP vote, if I'm not mistaken. But a guy who's very productive.

If you're at four war, you're kind of like right on the edge of being an all-star. That's not an honor that Christian Walker has gotten to this point in his career. But again, a very, very productive season from him in 2023. Of course, he wins the Gold Glove Award. Nine defensive runs saved and 12 outs above average. As a first baseman, it's hard to really ask for. much more than that. Of course, we touched on this when we did our Mike Hazen moves draft a couple, a couple weeks ago. Christian Walker was claimed off waivers back prior to the 2017 season. Talk about

a waiver claim that has panned out for the Diamondbacks. He has provided a lot of value. It took a couple years to really settle into a role. Obviously, Goldschmidt was still very much in his prime and a major part of this Diamondbacks team in 2017 and in 2018. But then in 2019, It basically became Christian Walker's role. He became the Diamondbacks Everyday First Baseman. And barring some, you know, there were some injury issues in 2021. The numbers in 2021 were not good. But you look at his numbers in 19 and 20 in 22 and 23.

He has not only gotten, not only been productive in all those seasons, but gotten better throughout that time. I guess maybe 22 was a little better than 23, but still back to back, very, very productive of seasons for him, even as he's now 32 years old. As far as an extension and kind of what this would look like, I think the right place to start is what Christian Walker would make in 2024. And we don't know exactly what that number is yet. He is arbitration eligible. This is his final year of arbitration. So he is estimated to make $11.5 million, according to MLB trade rumors. So if the debacks were to do an extension, they could do it in a similar vein to how that Nick Ahmed and that David Peralta deal that we discussed earlier was done,

where it's, you know, maybe it looks like a three-year deal, but it's really a two-year deal, and that you're just settling on a number for 2024, and then you're attacking on two years after that. But yeah, I think the diamond backs are in a situation where I don't know if they are, they would be in a tough position if Christian Walker walked after the 2024 season and was not and was not replaced by someone of a similar caliber. Obviously, he's a really, really important part of this Diamondbacks lineup.

And imagining Diamondbacks lineup without Christian Walker in it is a tough thing. Like this Diamondbacks team, as we touched on the other day on this show, the debacks were right at league average against right-handed pitching in 2023. They were a little bit below league average against lefties. This isn't a team that can lose one of its middle-of-the-order hitters and still you know, still really look good on paper, even with some of the other additions that have been made, you know, Aohenio Suarez coming on board, Lordus Gariel coming back. Christian Walker is still a really big part of this team in 2024.

And the thought of him not being there in 2025, that I would put the debacks in a tough spot. And I see people in the chat talking about some other options that the diamondbacks have internally. I think that's another good sort of starting point for this conversation is if Christian Walker goes elsewhere and free agency next year, what do your options look like? Who do you have internally that you can count on to take that spot? And there are some names.

Davis and Delo Santos is not one of them. Davis and Delo Santos, the Diamondbacks lost in the Rule 5 draft just a few weeks ago. That was a risk that they had to take, and it did not sound like they were surprised that that happened. That is just sort of the nature of having a 40-man roster that is a little bit more full than it's been in years past and being part of a team that's trying to contend, you don't have those additional 40-man roster spots. And so the Diamondbacks lose Davis and Delaus Santos.

He would have been one of the names in this conversation, but he is now, at least for the time being, a member of the Cleveland Guardians. Ivan Melendez, the other big name here, a lot of people talking about him in the chat I see. Ivan Melendez could be that guy, absolutely. I think he has a lot more, a lot more to prove. I think there's more for him to do at the minor league level before his future projection will really be that of like an everyday solid first baseman in this league.

I think defensively he can be fine. I don't think there are huge defensive concerns over there. He probably won't be Christian Walker, but few first basemen will be that defensively. But yeah, offensively we've talked about the strikeout concerns, the fact that he's run strikeout rates well over 30%. in the minors. And that is concerning.

I mean, that is something that, you know, as a prospect evaluator, prospect evaluators look at that stuff. And that stuff that doesn't tend to really bode well for your future in the majors. It's going to be really important for Ivan Melendez to cut down on the swing and miss as best he can in the minors this year. So, yeah, I think it is totally possible that Ivan Melendez could occupy that role. but I'm not sure it's something that you would want to count on. And the Diamondbacks in 2025, that's a really big year for them, right? 2025 on paper right now is Zach Gowland's walk year.

It's Merrill Kelly's walk year. It's not a season where you can afford to lose a major chip of your offense and not have a guy in position to replace him. So, yeah, internally there are some guys, Ivan Belendez being probably at the top of that list. Some people have mentioned Gino Groover as well. I think there's a chance that that could work too. I don't know if Gino Groover is going to have the power that a Christian Walker does,

but I think he could have possibly a better hit tool than Christian Walker. Could certainly provide some offensive value, even at a position like first base. But he's a little ways away as well, right? He finished the year in High A, put up some decent numbers down in Hillsborough, but I think he has a little bit left to prove as well. So it's not to say that those guys couldn't come in and step in. But if you're the debacks and you're in a position where you really want to win, not only in 2024, but in 2025,

you probably want to make sure that you have a little bit more of a sure thing. And that doesn't necessarily mean that you have to secure that right now, which is certainly part of this conversation, whether you'd want to just sort of play it out with Christian Walker and see what kind of year he has and see how those prospects fare. but it's something that the debacks going into 2025, they're going to want probably a more solid answer at first base than at least what it looks like those guys would provide as of right now.

I did some, I looked at some comps as far as what would a Christian Walker extension look like. I'll start with free agency. There aren't really any guys in free agency this offseason that are great comps for Christian Walker. Frankly, there aren't a lot of four win first baseman in the league. That's just a pretty rare commodity, especially for Christian Walker to be doing this, you know, into his early mid-30s at this point. Jorge Soler is 31 years old. His projection on MLB trade rumors is to get $3 and $45 million, three years, $45 million.

Fangrass has him at $3 million. So Soler is a little bit younger than Christian Walker. Soler is reaching free agency at 31. Walker next offseason would be 33. So there's a difference of a couple years there. But also, Jorge Soler, you know, well, he certainly had some headliner offensive seasons. He had a good season offensively this past year. But he was a 1.9 war player in 2023.

And that's kind of the difference between Christian Walker and a lot of these comparisons we could make is there aren't a lot of guys like in their early mid-30s providing as much as he does offensively while also being a pretty good defender as well. And yeah, Jacob, I'm curious kind of what you think about this. as far as projecting out what Christian Walker is going to be. One of the primary challenges here is do you think that Christian Walker is going to stay an elite defender into his mid-30s? Yeah, it is weird. I think we talked about this a little bit yesterday with Gabby, right? Like, defense isn't something that necessarily is learned in the big leagues,

and I also believe that it's something that you don't necessarily lose unless you are losing a step. And I don't think he's at that point yet. Not yet. It does not appear. No. Yeah. And so I think even with an extension, I don't think we'd be at that point yet. I mean, if you look at, for lack of better choices, like Paul Goldschmidt in St. Louis,

like he's still pretty elite defensively. Freddie Freeman, still pretty elite defensively. Like, those are guys that are aging as well. Like, true. So I think that it is projectable to look at him and say that you're probably not going to lose defense out of Walker. It's just a matter of whether he can keep up this offensive production. Yeah. That's where I get a little bit iffy.

not that I don't trust him, not that I don't think that he can. It's just like you said, 2025 is a really, really big year for this organization. Yeah. And it's, if you're extending him,

you're banking on the fact that he's going to basically be the same player that you have right now. Yeah, I'm glad you touched on. Your younger guys have developed to the point where you don't have to rely on him as much as you did.

Right. Yeah, I'm glad you touched on the offense side of things as well. Christian Walker was yet a 120 WRC plus in 23. That was down a couple points from 2022. He was at 123

but still a very productive offensive player. But yeah, as you project him forward, you're not really projecting him to continue at that level. The natural aging curve say that that's probably going to go down. I think his projection on steamer is something like 115

for the 2024 season. And then you figure it would kind of tick down after that. Maybe it's more like 110 in 2025. Maybe it's 105 in 206. Something long those lines. He doesn't have the same bat that like J.D. Martinez does. No. Right? Like a guy like J.D. Martinez has aged extremely well because he's got exceptional bat to ball skills. Yeah. And he just, yeah, J.D. Martinez just kind of rakes in a way that, you know, Christian Walker makes hard contact for sure. But you don't see quite as bright red on his baseball Savant page as you do someone like J.D. Martinez just like crushing the living daylights out of

at the base product. But yeah, there is, there's a bit of a disconnect here between what Christian Walker has been the last couple years and what projections say for him moving forward. I think on Steamer, it's right around two and a half wins above replacement for 2024. And there's a big difference between two and a half war and two and and four war, right? Four war, as I said earlier, that's like an all-star level player. Two and a half is like a solid, a solid slightly above average regular type player. And so, you know, if you're projecting Walker to be a four-war player, he would get paid, right?

I mean, that's the kind of guy. I know, Coggs mentioned three-year-60 million dollars, something like that. Like, four-war players get paid in free agency. I mean, Matt Chapman was like a four-war player in, in 2023. He's going to get paid. Obviously, he's a little younger than Christian Walker. So that's a different situation. The other really tricky thing for me here is that you don't really have the air, right?

Like, you don't have, like, like with Paul Goldschmidt. the trade was definitely a difficult thing to swallow for fans, but it was one of those like you had heard the last year, maybe two years where it's like, oh, Christian Walker's hitting like 40 home runs in AAA. Right. You got a guy that can crush.

And right now you don't really have that guy? Yeah. Like, Pave and Smith would have been that guy, probably. The hope was that Pave and Smith would be that guy. Greg, that he had he panned out to what they drafted him at seventh overall.

drafted him higher than they drafted Corbyn Carroll, statistically speaking. And so he's not really that guy, right? He doesn't have the pop in his bat. Maybe he could get to be an average baseball player to hold over the tide until you find that guy. Like Ivan Melendez, everybody obviously hopes is going to be that person. You mentioned his strikeout issues.

Like there's issues that need to be, like there's not a guy that you're like, well, he's hitting 3.30 with 25, 30 home runs and triple A. because you want your first baseman more than likely be a power hitter. Ideally, yeah. Yeah, at times, I think that they had worked with Jake McCarthy at first base because they had the outfield conundrum

and they didn't know what else to do with all those guys. That Jake McCarthy's bat doesn't exactly profile as a every day first date. Yes, correct. So I know that they're really high on guys like, like AJ Vukovic. They're high on who I could see maybe fitting there. Yeah, Vuk, I think you're going to need some,

a little more defensive value. He probably doesn't profile. I don't think he fits at third base, but first is that Tristan English is another guy that you'll probably hear tossed around a little bit. Sure. But somebody mentioned in the chat, I'd have to go back and look for it. Somebody mentioned Gino Groover, and that's a really, really interesting name for me because the bat is definitely there. Yeah. And it's projectable.

He really could be a good hitter. I mentioned him just briefly. and yeah, Gino Groover, it's really early at this point to really assess what he's going to become. But yeah, I absolutely could see Gino Grover being a pretty productive player. And a guy who defensively, there are some questions there. First base might be the position that suits him best. But yeah, you're absolutely right. There isn't a clear air here.

Excuse me, kind of as we were saying earlier. So, yeah, the Diamondbacks sort of need some sort of solution for 2025 at first base. most likely. And so in terms of what an extension would actually look like, again, there aren't a whole lot of comps to go off of here. Like Jose Ibrahimus signed for like two years and $32 million back in 2019. That was coming off of 1 15 WRC plus year. And he was, that was in his age 32 season, entering his age 33 season. That's about as good of a comp as I can find. Obviously, Jose Abraeu had a long history of being a very, very productive major league hitter that Christian Walker does not have. have. But it's hard for me to imagine that if you're Christian Walker and you just put up

back-to-back four war seasons, so you're going to be like, yeah, give me two years and $28 million or something. If you look at the projections, that is maybe what you would want to give Christian Walker. I mean, if he is, if he's going to be projected for two and a half war in 2024, then the two seasons after that, you might project for like two war and then one point five war, which if you sort of do the math using the dollar the war to dollars machine like two years and $28 million

I think is actually pretty fitting of what you would want to give Christian Walker but also you don't really see four war players signed for two years and I mean we just saw Mitch Garver signed for two and 24 that is something to be said like if he wants to win and he is getting older and this team is his best chance of doing it he spent his whole career like

yeah like he might be that guy like Christian Walker seems like the type of guy that obviously they all want to go make their money at the end of the day. I get that. But he also seems like the type of guy that might prioritize winning toward the end of his career over money. I mean, I sent you that tweet, the Mets Twitter beat reporter,

talking about J.D. Martinez, signed for less money with the Dodgers last year because he prioritized winning. He also was familiar with some of their hitting coaches, and I think that was part of it. But that's the same thing. Like, he played here. You know what I mean?

And would he be willing to sign for less because he's prioritizing winning? this team just went to the World Series. Yeah. If you get Jamie Martinez into this lineup, they're legitimate World Series contenders. It would be a big, it would be a huge boost. Absolutely.

Time will tell what the Diamondbacks doing is. I mean, he might be the same type of personality. Like he's played here, he's familiar with being here. Yeah. Like hometown discounts are a real thing. I could see this deal ranging from anywhere from like two years, you know, $28 million, which again on paper is like maybe what you want to pay him.

But in reality, I'm skeptical that Christian Walker would be willing to accept that, just given, like, yeah, he's been a really valuable player at last. I mean, a four-war season on paper is worth like over $30 million. Are you going to sign for two more years at 14? I don't know if his camp would be prepared to do that. So, yeah, I think that's sort of the floor is like two years around $14, $15 million a year. He's already making $11.5 roughly in 2024. So it's certainly expected to tick up from that at least a little bit. And the ceiling here, as far as what the diamondbacks might like reasonably consider,

maybe you'd be willing to go to a third year, which would cover his age 34 to 36 seasons. And then maybe you would also be willing to go up to more like $17 million a year. So that would, you know, maybe three years, 51 million, something like that. But again, if you're the debacks, you're looking at your spreadsheet, you're looking at what the projections say. They're not going to, they're not going to say that you should get. give Christian Walker three years and 50 million.

And yeah, Derek, I agree. He's going to want three years. He'd have a pretty valid case for doing that. I mean, if Mitch Garver around the same age is getting two years with his injury history, Christian Walker's been really durable and more valuable. Yeah. I mean, it's, are you willing to pay for value? Right?

Yeah. Obviously. Potentially overpay for value. It's so easy for us to sit. here and be like, well, they probably shouldn't do it because the projections say that they shouldn't. But somebody's going to. Right? Like there's always, there's a whole. Has another season like he just did. There's always a team that's going to pay. Like, like, I know you earlier, you were talking about the Catel Marte extension, right? You're like, well, it's too early

to tell whether it was good enough or not. Just want the NLCS. Like, I don't like, whatever he does for the rest of this extension, sure, but like the man just gave us one of the most memorable runs in, and like I'm okay with it at that point. Like whatever happens over the next four years of that extension, like, cool, like, Cotel Marte is still going to be a good baseball player this year. Like I know projections might say,

well, he's getting old. You know, he might drop off production wise, this, that, like you got to pay for value at some point. And like,

projections are one thing, but you just have to, that's their job. They just have to trust that they know what they're seeing and that they have the coaching staff that's going to pull the best out of him. Yeah, and I guess a lot of this does hinge on the debacks kind of internal evaluation of like, where do you kind of see this going with Christian Walker?

Do you expect him to age like fine wine as, you know, like a Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt has? Or do you see this, you know, do you see him taking a little bit of a step back in these next few years, as a lot of players do? And yeah, there are also other ways to do this. I see some people proposing some different ideas in the chat. I think you could definitely have an option in a trade line and a move like this. Maybe it's a two-year deal with a third-year mutual option, a vesting option. There's all sorts of ways to go about this. But yeah, something in the range of two to three years, something in the range of, you know,

14 to 17, 18 million dollars a year. I think those are reasonable numbers. The debacks also theoretically could get, they could give him a qualifying offer and get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. That's another thing to consider here that would be an advantage in just kind of letting this play out and depending on the season that he has, if he has another season like he just did, you could absolutely give him the qualifying offer. And he might accept it. That's possible. He might, you know, play for you in 2025 for $20.21 million. That's a lot. But it might be

worth it if he has another season, like, you know, the years that he's had the last couple, the last couple seasons. But yeah, there's a number of different ways that this could work out. There is actually, I pulled this up because I was really curious, the list of free agent first basements. For next year? In 2025, yeah. Yeah. It's Goldie. It's Rizzo.

It's Josh Bell. Wilmer Flores, Roddy Tellez. Pete Alonzo is probably the, I mean, other than maybe Goldie, who's going to be old. But like, in terms of like, Pete Alonzo is still going to be on the south side of 30 at that point? Like, he's probably. Well, I think he, I think he's 30 right now. Or is he 30 now? Is this not telling me what he'll be when he's a.

free agent? Let me check. He's 29 right now. So yeah, he'll be 30. So he's probably the big name on that list. But Christian Walker might be the only other available like you got to go get that guy. Yeah, he would be. I think Christian Walker would probably be the second most if this were, if this were happening this year, like if you put Christian Walker in that mix coming off the season that he just had, he's the second most valuable free agent first basement. It's Pete Alonzo by probably a fair margin. I mean, Pete Alonzo is a really good player. If you want 50 home runs a year, you're going to sign Pete Alonzo. But Christian Walker, man, I mean, his defense is so good that even if his

offense lags a little bit behind a guy like Pete Alonzo, at least right now, he still has the ability to give you a kind of similar value. So yeah, I mean, you know, of course some people are probably hypothesizing like, oh, clearly what you do is you let Christian Walker go elsewhere and then you just bring back Paul Goldschman and everyone's happy. Who knows? Maybe that's on the table. For a one year stop gap in 2025, if you do lose. Walker. I don't hate it.

I don't know. I mean, Goldie probably could get more than a one-year deal. Sure. Depending on the kind of season he has next year. He'll be 30. He'll be 38, 39. He'll be 38 years old. Yeah, it's a, he'll be old. But he, yeah, he still continues to hit, which is, which is impressive. The debacks two of A. Eugenio Suarez on a club option for $15 million. I guess you could envision a scenario where maybe he has some great breakout offensive season. And then you slide him over to first base and Jordan Lawler. He's a third base, though.

He's really, really good. Easy. He's solid, but I think he could maybe learn to be a really good first baseman. You kind of expect as the years go on, his defense, you know, might regress a little bit. Certainly put up good numbers in that regard in 2023. But yeah, this is a fascinating situation. I don't think I'm expecting the Diamondbacks to sign an extension here. I imagine that they're looking at the value of giving him a qualifying offer and potentially

getting a draft pick out of this if he walks. There is some value to be had there as well. There is, again, a considerable risk. If you, I mean, if you go out and you give Christian Walker three and 45, you know, like extending beyond 2024, so like three and 45 from 2025 to 2027. If he goes out and kind of struggles in 2024, then suddenly you're looking at, you know, a first basement for three seasons paying him $15 million a year into his mid-30s. So there's going to be, there's going to be some risk here no matter, no matter what they do.

But I'm skeptical that Christian Walker would take like two and 28 million or something like that. Cogs keeps pointing out that Guriel is an interesting option over at first base. That way, yeah, I think Lordus could totally play first. He's played a little bit of first in the past. But I don't think Lordus is bat necessarily. Lourdes is like a slightly above average hitter. And as he continues to age, he's a good left fielder right now. Like, he's most valuable in left field for the Diamondbacks right now.

But that is a very valid, a very valid suggestion. Lourdes, I think, could play first base. If the DBOx found some other solution in the outfield, maybe that's something that they would explore a lot of different possibilities there. But speaking of possibilities, the BetMGM Sportsbook app has all the possibilities of how you can make money on all sorts of different things. They also have a crazy intro offer right now, which you can get if you download the BenMGM Sportsbook app on iOS or Android, visit betmgm.com or or visit betmgm.com. You can get to it either way. And then sign up and deposit at least $10 into your betmgm sportsbook account. Place your

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Colorado, D.C., Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming. Call 8778-Hop-N-Y or text Hope-N-Y-4-6-6-6-9-6-9-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-4-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-4-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1. Ontario. Ontario. Ontario. There we go. Beautiful. Did you hear that, Derek?

That was perfect. Perfect harmony, me and Jacob. Also want to tell you about our friends over a desert financial credit union. They are responsible, as I said yesterday, for getting Derek started on his homeownership journey, which I've been jealous of. Apparently, back in the mid-2000s, they just gave homes away for free, Jacob. I know you're a recent home buyer as well, and you've felt the effects of how much more expensive things have gotten in recent years. So, you know, I'm a little jealous of what Derek has going on over there. But Desert Financial, they're the good people who got him started. Look to Desert Financial for not only that, but checking and savings accounts, loans,

credit cards, investment options, and more. Join a credit union that is committed to giving back to the community and sharing its success with its members. When you open a free checking account online, get $200 in bonuses. It's just for opening a free checking account. Get started by visiting desertfinancial.com slash 200. We're going to finish off today with some Trevor Bauer shenanigans because that's everyone's favorite thing to talk about in baseball. Trevor Bauer put a tweet out on social media yesterday.

It's about the length of a novel. Yeah, we normally put it on like a different format graphic, but it's so long that Jacob was like, we're just going to have to like put the block text on a background. That was the only way we could do it. So yes, I will go ahead and read Trevor Bauer's very lengthy tweet that sort of went viral around five. o'clock yesterday. He said this scenario. A company has posted a job opening. You apply. The company rejects your application before the interview process, stating that your skill is not the reason for the rejection, but they don't think it would be good for public relations being associated

with you. You find this odd because you already train some of their employees for free, and the company is aware of it and totally fine with it. The same company then sends a representative who happens to be a friend of yours to ask you for background information on a candidate they're considering hiring for the position you applied for. The person they're considering hiring is also a friend of yours. On one hand, you could provide the background information thereby helping both of your friends. On the other hand, a company that refused to give you an interview is now seeking your help for free in multiple ways behind the scenes and it doesn't sit well with you. What do you do? Of course, Trevor Bauer is just asking for a friend, right? This has nothing to do with him personally.

I mean, I'm sure he has a few. But yeah, this is, this is interesting from Trevor Bauer. Of course, his situation is pretty well documented. I imagine you all probably know the story of the allegations there and some of the reporting that's been done over the last year or so. You can Google it if you're not familiar. It should be pretty easy to find. But yeah, Trevor Bauer is clearly struggling to find a job pitching in the

majors, which of course seemed to be what he was seeking after this offseason. And according to this tweet, which again, maybe it has nothing to do with Trevor Bauer. Maybe this is just some hypothetical scenario he dreamed up. But more likely, this is Trevor Bauer struggling to find a major league job and apparently being asked by major league teams to help vet maybe some other pitchers that they're interested in. And Trevor Bauer also mentioned in here that he is actively.

helping certain major league pitchers. That seems to be the implication. So, yeah, I guess it was interesting reading through some of the comments here and what people had to say. I think if you're Trevor Bauer, you're not really in position to play these kinds of games with teams where you're like, yeah, well, you're putting me in an unfair position by doing this. It's like, well, yeah, but also what they're saying about a public relations issue is a very

real thing, right? Any team that signs Trevor Bauer, if they make that decision, they're not just signing a number four starter or whatever it is, right? They're becoming the team that signed to Trevor Bauer. That is the reality of the situation. If it is

the Cincinnati Reds decide tomorrow that they think Trevor Bauer's fastball is a good ride and they want to see it at the top of their rotation or wherever in their rotation, the Cincinnati Reds become the team and signed Trevor Bauer when all of the other teams, presumably had the moral, you know, took the moral high ground and we're not willing to do that.

So yeah, I mean, maybe it's hard for me to know exactly what the situation is here. You know, is Trevor Bauer portraying this situation correctly? Who's to say, I really can't? But the reality is that I think he needs to, he needs to know where he's at and he needs to understand that that is the reality of a situation right now. And there's not really a whole lot that he can do to change that. And if it means him being put in some unfair positions that, you know, where he feels like he's helping people or, you know, giving more of his time than he should to help teams that refuse to bring him on board, that's kind of the role that Trevor Bauer has to occupy. Like, he has a lot of work to do in order to kind of make up all of the, all of the ground that he had.

I mean, not that Trevor Bauer was necessarily ever the most well-liked player in baseball. But he's obviously in a different category right now. And he has a lot of work to do to earn that back. what's your hot take on the situation Jacob baseball is a really unique like not unique in the fact that like in other sports it seems like players will do something

get accused of it whatever it is and like seem to consistently find their way back to another team whether it was the old team they played for and the new team like sure it almost always gets swept under the rug right um baseball's been really almost unique in the fact that don't give me wrong there are plenty of guys that have found their way back on to like

or all this Chapman for example just throwing to like there are guys that find their ways back on to the roster a lot of but I'm waiting for a sport to step up and be the sport where if you do something to jeopardize your career like this

I do not think you should see the field again yeah right there's no official rule in place keeping Trevor Bauer from playing as far as we know it is just that the the PR night that would be required is a risk the teams aren't willing to take. Correct. And like I'm not I'm not here to comment, speculate, do whatever. Like the situation is what the situation is, right? Like if it didn't happen, maybe he should find his way back.

If it did happen, no, he shouldn't find. That's not what I'm here to comment on. What I'm here to comment on is at some point, a sport, one of the four major sports, they have to step up and say, if you are involved in this kind of stuff, This sets a bad example for kids everywhere watching this game. You do not deserve another chance. You get paid millions and millions and millions and millions of dollars to play a game. Yeah.

Make the right choices with your life. Don't put yourself in those situations. Like, I'm sorry. You made your bet. We don't want you anymore. Yeah. Yeah. Nicholas says preach Fodge.

Preach. Yeah, I think that I think that's a very valid point. I mean, it really is a privilege for these guys to be doing what they're doing on an everyday basis. And they are public figures. And, you know, it's not only what they do on the field that matters at the end of the day. You know, and just about any line of work. Like if you get caught up in these kinds of allegations, you're not sticking around for very long. And in baseball, you know, people should be held to arguably not only the same standard, but even a higher standard,

given the fact that you're in the public spotlight and you are, you know, someone that a lot of young people are looking up to on the daily. Of course, yeah, there's a whole wander Franco situation. We won't get too deep into that. But yeah, I thought it'd be interesting to just kind of touch on the latest with Trevor Bauer. I do not anticipate the Diamond Vax bringing him on board as much as they might be looking for starting pitching help still at this point.

I don't think that's totally out of the question. I do not expect Trevor Bauer to be part of that search for them. But what I do expect is to have some luck today doing my Arizona Lottery scratcher. So I'm going to go ahead and do this. And I'm feeling pretty good about it, Jacob. I have, I have some confidence that this is going to work out well for me. I was talking about this with Espo yesterday. We got 500 of these scratchers. We got 500 of them? Yes, we got 500 of these scratchers. And, and at some point, someone's going to win a million dollars. The odds are in our favor. It's only a matter of time. Yeah.

Yeah. They keep giving them to us. Like, we've had plenty of winners. Don't give me wrong. We've had plenty of winners. But at some point, somebody is going to win big. There's a difference between a $1 million win. $500,000 win and all the other wins.

Yeah, for sure. For sure. And Jesse, if you win, you are splitting this with me. You know what? Jacob, I think we have a winner. And I think we won a dollar.

So there you go. 50 cents. Yeah, 50 cents. 50 cents. I'm here for it. We're going to try not to spend all in one place. See what we're able to do. But this is very fun because you don't know what you're going.

You don't know if you're going to get, sometimes they'll get a dollar. Sometimes you get significantly more than that. So again, if you're looking for something just fun to give to someone in your life that could potentially change their life, Arizona Lottery Scratchers are a great way to do that. So be sure to get in on that if you haven't already. One of the places you can get them is over at Circle K. Circle K is not only just a place where you can buy Arizona lottery tickets, but it's also America's third stop.

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One of my favorite places to stop on a road trip heading out of town or whatnot. So, yeah, get in on the inner circle. If you haven't already, you have abs. nothing to lose. Join Inner Circle for free by downloading the CircleK app today. Terms and conditions apply at participating locations. Visit CircleK.com for details. Also want to tell you about the most aesthetically pleasing ticketing app that you will find out there. It is Game Time. Game Time offers a personal experience buying tickets to all of your favorite events, upcoming games, not only games but concerts, other events as well. Game Time is also the place to go for

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Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. Well, that's all we have here on this Friday, this flavoring Friday edition of the PhNXDBAC show. Thank you all so much for being here with us today. Again, tomorrow is officially deemed Sean Depos day on the PHNXDBACs podcast. So we will have a Saturday show. We will be back here at 1 p.m. If we're going to work on a Saturday, we need to be.

We need you all to show up. So we hope you'll join us then, whether on video or an audio-only format as well. In the meantime, be sure to give us a follow on Twitter. You can find me at Jesse N. Friedman. You can find Fodge at Jacob underscore Franklin 4. Of course, you can find our beat account, PHNX underscore D-Backs over on Twitter. We have a lot of fun over there. Derek comes up with outrageous memes and it's a great time.

So be sure to give us a follow there if you have not already. Of course, all roads here at PHNX lead to at PHNX underscore sports. That's on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. Again, thank you all so much for being here with us today. See you tomorrow at 1 p.m. And remember, kids, baseball is fun, but it's so much more fun when your waiver claim turns into Christian Walker.