Pivot - 2024 Predictions on AI, The Election, X's Future and More

Episode Date: December 19, 2023

It’s time for our annual predictions episode! Kara and Scott share their 2024 predictions on politics, stocks, China, Google and more. Plus, some Friend of Pivot predictions from Jen Psaki, Mike Birbiglia, Fei-Fei Li, Bill Cohan, Dr. Joy Buolamwini, and Matt Belloni.  Follow us on Instagram and Threads at @pivotpodcastofficial. Follow us on TikTok at @pivotpodcast. Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or at nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. Scott, it's our annual end-of-year predictions episode where we look into our crystal balls and make our best guesses about what we think will happen in the coming year, which is 2024. And we get a little help from some friends of Pivot who will give us their best predictions

on what to expect in AI, media, politics, and more in 2024. As a reminder, in last year's predictions episode, you predicted that we'd hit peak personal genius. But 2023 is going to be just as whatever, the metaverse or crypto. 2023 is going to be the year of AI. I think we've hit peak personal genius.

I think we're going to see a lot of orange jumpsuits next year. I think Sam Baikman-Fried was kind of, I said this around Adam Neumann and I was wrong, but I think there's going to be real pushback on this notion that individuals are more important than institutions. I think people are just finally hit their breaking point. This year, we were on the money with predictions about activist investors, Chris Lick's departure from CNN, Amazon's downsizing of Alexa, and of course, our controversial predictions on the writers and actors strikes. Also, I'll add that I called Linda

Giacchino getting named CEO of Twitter, but she might be wishing I hadn't. And My Spidey Sense told me that we learned some sketchy things about the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, which we have. So let's see what 2024 will bring. To start things off, here's a prediction from Matt Bellany of Puck. Let's listen. Hi, Cara and Scott. It's Matt Bellany from Puck and the Town podcast. And I figured I would make a box office prediction because I know, Cara, you love going to the movies. We had a lovely time when we saw Mission Impossible together this summer. Next year, 2024, the box office is going to be down. And it's because of the strikes.

Hollywood still has not recovered from COVID in theaters. And the strike was just absolutely debilitating for next year. This year is probably going to be down about 20% from 2019. My prediction is next year is going to be down even more than 2023. And that is going to spell doom for a lot of these theater chains. I don't think the big ones like AMC or Regal

will go into bankruptcy, but the smaller theater chains are in real trouble. Doesn't mean there won't be hits. There's going to be big movies next year. There's Inside Out 2, Sonic the Hedgehog 3. There's another Mad Max. Dune is now in 2024. It's previously scheduled for this year.

But it's all about volume. These theaters need a steady pipeline of Hollywood movies to make the money that they make, that they need to stay in business. who make the money that they make, that they need to stay in business. And it's just not going to happen at the same level because we've had six months of production pauses and all these movies are being pushed. Marvel, DC, everything is in disarray. So my prediction is 2024 is going to be

a very bleak year at the box office and there's going to be lots of ramifications. All right, that's a good one, especially coming from him, because he and I have had this argument about the death of movie theaters. He thought they had much more staying power. This is a big prediction from him, and I think he's 100% right. Scott? The best thing that can happen to you in a business is success. The second best thing is it fails fast. And unfortunately for Hollywood and LA-based media, it's going to fail slowly for the next 20 years. And that is there will be Barbie and Oppenheimer

Summers that have a glimmer of hope. But over time, the regression line is going to be down into the right. I remember when I was a kid, I would sneak out of school early to go see a movie. And they were pack theaters. If I ever had a date, it was a movie. I saw The Empire Strikes Back five times in a movie theater. And I think just consumer habits have just changed so dramatically that, you know, it's really weird where they're going. They're doing like these little artisanal theaters. Yeah. Those are fine. It's not going where they're going. They're doing these little artisanal theaters. Yeah, those are fine.

It's not going to support the business. No, and there's an interesting story in the journal about Fathom, which does events like opera. They're doing all kinds of things. They're replaying Dirty Dancing. You might want to see that in the theater, right? Those are small little good ideas for these theaters to do those kind of things. But it's not going to save this market. I actually did go see Mission Impossible with Matt,

but I wanted to see that in the theater. But they're few and far between. And I now will only go to theaters that have reclining seats. Do you love our reclining seats? I love our reclining seats. I pick. It's amazing. I do. One of the key things is my kids don't go to theaters.

They just don't. They just really, they used to. But if you're drawing it, I was thinking, okay, how do you gain insight into where you should allocate your finite financial and human capital? And I think a decent proxy is, does the business, if it's in the media or entertainment business, where does it make its money? And you want to find and invest in media companies that make their money based on how small the screen is. If they make their money or they get a lot of their income from a really big screen called a movie theater, don't get near it.

If they make it on a smaller screen that's still quite big called a television, again, avoid it. But if they make their money off of putting data on a small, small screen called a phone, that's your bingo card. All right. All right. There you go. Good prediction. We don't think you went too far on a limb, but you're right. The strike did hurt it very badly, no matter how you slice that. Okay, Scott, let's get to a prediction from our friend Bill Cohen, one of my favorite people. Hi, Karen and Scott. It's William D. Cohen here, best-selling author and founding partner of Puck and friend of Pivot,

a delightfully happy friend of Pivot. So my prediction for 2024 is that finally the Twitter X debt will be sold by the eight banks that have been holding onto it for more than a year. It'll be sold at a discount of around 50 or 60 cents on the dollar. It'll fall into the wrong hands because Elon Musk will not do what he should do, which is buy the debt at a discount from the banks. But he won't do that. And it will fall into the hands of vulture investors, distressed investors, who will then rattle his cage endlessly for the next year or so until they take control of Twitter X away from Elon Musk because it basically can't pay its debts as they become due.

It's a struggling financial disaster, as we know it to be, and companies like IBM have stopped advertising in the platform. He will lose control of Twitter X, and he will have flushed control of Twitter X, and he will have flushed $44 billion, $24 billion of which was his own money, down the tubes. One other tangential prediction for 2024 is that the Boston Red Sox, under their new GM, Craig Breslow, and I have to disclose that I'm a friend of John Henry, the owner of the Red Sox, will go from worst to first, will become the winners of the American League East in 2024. Happy 2024, Kara and Scott. I love you both. Bye. How much we love Bill Cohen.

We love Bill Cohen. He's the best, isn't he? He really is. What an unsung, what a smart thinker he is. I don't always agree with him but we really do he's great let's let's stop praising bill cohen for a second though this is a good this is a good prediction now yeah okay hold on let's just let's just press pause a prediction saying that movie theaters will decline in revenue okay that's a prediction

whose testicles have not descended sorry matt that's okay wow you're really going out on a limb there don't be mean to our nice country. And then Bill shows up with testicles the size of Mars and says, Twitter, debt is going to be cured. It's going to be purchased by people who are going to bump Elon Musk into bankruptcy and take over Twitter. That's a prediction. Right or wrong? The key to predictions is not being right. It's inspiring or catalyzing a conversation.

Anyways, I like that prediction a lot, whether it's right or wrong. All right. It probably won't happen, though. Okay. Why? Tell me why. All right. It's inspiring or catalyzing a conversation. Anyways, I like that prediction a lot, whether it's right or wrong. It probably won't happen though. Okay. Why? Tell me why. All right. Well, here's what the banks are doing. Banks, and I'm parroting Bill, he has a great, banks are not in the storage business, they're in the moving business. So the fact they have held onto this debt because they got caught in an interest rate environment that was accelerating. So all of a sudden they underwrote $12 billion of of debt. Overnight, it's worth 10 or 9, then 8 and 7. And the last thing they want to do is once they sell it, they have to recognize that loss on an earnings call. And so, they keep hoping, and this is the game they're playing. They keep hoping that

Elon is going to show up and say, Elon has done the math here. He knows that the scenario Bill just outlined is a real possibility. And so, the banks are hoping that Elon shows up and says, OK, I'll give you 60 cents on the dollar. And the banks go, no, we're just going to let it out on the private market, Elon. And who knows who's going to end up with this debt? And they're hoping he's going to show up and overpay for it such that he doesn't have vultures pecking at his liver over the next 12 months in terms of distressed investors. If he doesn't show up, he's right. But I don't think it'll go into bankruptcy. Elon Musk has

so much money with an impending IPO of Starlink, he would be able to make these interest payments in his sleep. And so as long as he makes the interest payments, he can pretty much ignore them. Yep. Yep. I don't know who'll buy them. I think he's right. The banks will offload this debt this year. It's taken a long time for them to do it. Question is, will he buy it? And will he get together a group of people who will give him more money to buy the debt? It's not that much money. I guess if it's 13, it'd be 5 billion. I bet he could come up with that with his friends, him and his friends. I don't think his friends. I think his friends have been so burned. They paid such an enormous Elon tax.

Well, he could come up with the money. I think he'll end up buying it. Yeah, he has the money. He has the money. Okay, Scott, now we have a prediction from Jen Psaki. Let's listen. Hi, Scott and Kara, it's Jen Psaki. So I know you guys are asking for predictions for 2024.

Predictions are always hard. That's why you're asking for them. Here's mine. I think people always undervalue, are still undervaluing the impact of abortion rights and the impact it could have for the Democrats on the ballot next year. And one of the smartest things that we should, everybody should learn from for next year is the fact that on these states where there were ballot initiatives, there was big turnout. So my prediction is that abortion is going to be a bigger factor than most people are betting on. And the states that are smart enough to have abortion ballot initiatives are going to have higher turnout than other states.

Ooh, Sakatumi. I think she's right. I think it's an enduring issue with women particularly, but I think young people, and I think it still sticks in the craw of everybody, what happened with Roe v. Wade, and they're worried about it. I think that's probably a very safe thing, and it's been a really winning issue for Democrats, and the Republicans are all over the place on this issue. Only Nikki Haley has a pretty good answer. The rest of them seem out of touch and confusing. Scott? It feels like it's already come to the fold. I mean, if you look at the elections around the nation, it's been a huge factor. And what's interesting is it feels like the ultimate self-inflicted wound across Republicans. And that is, I just read an article saying that abortions are actually up since Roe v. Wade was struck down. And at the same time, they're losing elections because this issue is obviously very important to people. So

it feels like it was a kind of an unforced error on the part of, I guess it's the Supreme Court, not Republicans, but be careful what you wish for. Well, no, because Republicans can't answer. You know, they sort of go, I interviewed Liz Cheney and I, you know, I was like, let's, because she was thinking of running. And so I said, let's talk about something. Let's remind people who you are. And when I asked her about all kinds of issues, but then I got to abortion and she couldn't answer. She just was like, well, I, you know, empathy and. They don't want to answer.

And she just couldn't though. It was fascinating. And I have to say, she's as sharp as a tag. She's very controlled. And every answer is full paragraphs. She was wandering all over the place because they don't know what to say because they know it's a loser. I think just Nikki Haley is the only one who's had the most cogent answer, which gives her strength, I think. I think.

Speaking of which, if Nikki Haley were to become president, that would hands down be the watershed moment for the Republican Party of the last 50 years. Could be. Think about after all the accusations of the Democratic Party, you know, seeing everything through the lens of identity politics and being sponsors or advocates for the Me Too movement and kicking senators out for, you know, playing grab ass at fairs. And then they're the ones that elect the first female president, that would, oh my gosh, that, from a brand move, if the Republicans were just thinking about what's good for the party for the next 10 years. Yeah, they're not thinking about that. But still, I'm just saying, theoretically, it'd be hard to imagine anything that would do more for the Republican Party brand than if they were the ones that elected the first female president.

Yeah, absolutely. I agree with you. But she unfortunately keeps wandering down weird highways that she needs to go down to get that nomination, which she's not going to get. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll hear from some more friends of Pivot and make our own predictions. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle.

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at vox.com slash zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. Okay, Scott, now we have a prediction on AI from Dr. Joy Bulumwini. Let's listen. Hi, Karen, Scott. This is Dr. Joy Bulumwini, the founder of the Algorithmic Justice League and the author of Unmasking AI, my mission to protect what is Human in a World of Machines. My prediction for AI in 2024 is that companies adopting AI systems that have been built on data taken without consent and compensation will face a growing number of class action lawsuits,

and that companies concerned about the climate impact of training AI systems will start exploring green AI pipelines. Oh, that's interesting. That last one. I wonder what a green AI pipeline is, because, you know, it's kind of similar to Bitcoin. I was just thinking that. Yeah, I hadn't thought of that. The huge compute, that's one of the issues with that why the big companies are so involved here is because the compute is so massive. I think she's right about lawsuits. I mean, this is where it's been going. And they've just been dragging information that they don't have rights to,

and they're going to pay this time. Yeah, agreed. I wonder if they have the money, though, to strike a deal with something that's tantamount to what the record labels have done with some sort of omnibus rights organization that does big deals with big media companies. The biggest media companies, I mean, fortunately for them, it might be expensive, but it wouldn't be that difficult because media has been so consolidated that if you did deals with, say, 20 or 30 organizations, you might have 80 or 90% of the content that people want crawled. Yeah, I would agree. You know, just people know Google just recently is paying Canada. They're sort of getting out of that fight over compensation. I think they'll just pay up now. I think they've

decided it's just easier to do that than face these lawsuits. I ran into at a party I was just recently at is the guy who's head of content at OpenAI. He strikes deals with media companies. They did the AP deal, obviously. And I think you're going to see more of that. And as Barry Diller, he controls, I think it's Scripps. He's going to use the legal system because there's no laws in place. And that's what he's going to do. And that's what's going to him and others are going to do that. And individuals like Sarah Silverman, it's just inevitable that it's going to become class action. And individuals like Sarah Silverman, it's just inevitable that it's going to become class action. The green AI pipelines is true.

And also the cost of doing a lot of this AI is going to be massive. What I do think will happen, though, in contrast with Bitcoin, which I have never understood the fact that we, I mean, Bitcoin's electricity consumption is equivalent to the electricity consumption of Argentina. Yeah. The cost of Argentina. Yeah. The cost of mine, Bitcoin. I mean, talk about an energy consumption disaster or what's the term? Pooled it. Just we dug ourselves. It didn't need to be dug. It's never made any sense to me.

dug. It's never made any sense to me. And then the crypto Taliban claims that, well, actually, it's financing the marginal source of alternative energy because a lot of Bitcoin miners are placing them near wind and solar, which I always thought was total bullshit. Anyway, I don't think this will be as big an issue because the companies that are biggest in this are so heavily scrutinized and have so much capital that they will be able to put these server farms or whatever they're going to need near hydro facilities. I think this will be the greenest consumption of incremental power. I think these companies will get that right. Okay. Yeah, they're near it. They're not just solar. It's solar, hydro. They're not going to be excavating new coal mines.

Yeah. Yeah. Agreed. Agreed. Okay, Scott, now let's hear a prediction from Dr. Fei-Fei Li. Hi, Tara and Scott. This is Fei-Fei Li. I'm a Sequoia Professor of Computer Science at Stanford, then co-director of Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, centered AI and the author of the book, The Worlds I See. My prediction for AI in 2024 is that the technology will continue to deepen and widen with a very impressive speed. We're going to see more multimodal large models beyond language into the domain of perception and world modeling. And we will also see AI continue to create a lot of discussion among the public and policymakers as we experience the messy impact of AI in our society, in our industry. Thank you. Well, the last part's obvious, I think. And she's at the Center for Human-Centered AI, which has always been her push. The point she's making about beyond language of perception and

world modeling is really important. Again, another thing I heard recently on some visits to a lot of tech people, this idea of what it could do beyond just, you know, give me what Scott would say if he was singing a rap, you know what I mean, that kind of stuff. But it's this world modeling of the way the world is, and is a very big thing. And this is where I think you and I have talked about where we're really going and where the real benefits of AI are is the ability to take all this data and really begin to model things that humans can't do because of their ability. And then also to perceive things, pictures, photographs, and not just say what they are, but to understand and think, become like a brain. And I think she's talking about something very important here beyond these just models of data, of these language models. I just couldn't get past the fact that money has infected higher education. Did you see how

she introduced herself? Yes, Sequoia, yeah. That's what she is. I'm the Sequoia professor from Peter Schaaf. She's a legend. Do not insult her. She has to say it. I'm not insulting her. I'm insulting the game. And by the way, I'm here to announce that I am now the new Cialis professor of marketing. You wish. I mean, for God's sakes. You wish. I'm insulting the game. And by the way, I'm here to announce that I am now the new Cialis Professor of Marketing. You wish. I mean, for God's sakes.

You wish. That's what they do? That's what they've said. We'll only give you this money if Professor Lee, well, every time she introduces herself, says she's the Sequoia Professor of Computer Science at Stanford. Let me read you the first sentence of my new book coming out in February. So it was capitalism after all. Go ahead. Yeah, yeah. Actually, Times first in the year should have been money. This is the year

where money literally won everything. It always wins. Why does it not the year of money? This has been the least productive legislative session in history. And as a result, you have money taking over the PGA. Let's actually go to what she said. She's a very famous and revered AI researcher. I think she's, everything I've read of her, she's very thoughtful. I think this was a big nothing burger. But anyways, go ahead. I don't know what she said here that's not obvious. The world modeling thing is a big deal. Everyone is talking about the language models. You're not smart enough to understand what she just said. I'm not. I'm not.

I don't know her. I'm sure she's wonderful. She's a pioneering AI. You're going to get in trouble for this, and you're going to deserve every bit of it. I'm sure she's great. I'm thrilled she's decided to partner with those really good folks at Sequoia. Oh, my God. Have you invested with Sequoia? I have.

Aha. Okay, then. So now we know who is who. Okay. Just want to make sure about that. They backed me three times, Kara. This is the gratitude they get from me. Yeah, exactly. All right. You must have had a real tough time with Mike Morris. Awful people, Kara, just saying. Okay, Scott. Yeah.

Here's another one from one of our favorite comedians, Mike Birbiglia. Let's listen. Hey, Kara and Scott. love the show. My wife, Jenny and I listen to every episode. Here's my prediction for 2024. Someone, some genius who I do not know, comes up with something to replace text messages. There's too many, too many text messages. Like the other day, I woke up from a nap and it was just like, your uncle's in intensive care. Here's your brother's Wordle score. Your wife wants you to pick up paper towels at the store. And I'm just like, okay, thumbs up, thumbs down. Ha ha ha.

No ha ha ha. And I just like, I can't take it anymore. I'm thinking, I don't know, maybe like a flip phone that does Uber. I'm not in tech. That's my prediction. All right. Love you guys. I love my prediction.

Yeah, so do I. By the way, his show, Old Man on the Pool, it's from the theater show, which was wonderful. love you guys I love my Brubiglia yeah so do I he's got a new special on Netflix by the way his show Old Man on the Pool it's from the theater show which was wonderful which you went to

and I took my son to in London yeah it's great it's on Netflix I would recommend it I'm going to watch it again also I may note he was in

a Taylor Swift video this year he was are you kidding yeah he was he played her son he played her son KFC has a Taylor Swift special.

It's two long skinny legs and a left wing. All right. I have so much respect for her. It's morphed into objectification. Just so you know, anyone objectified, it's a function of immense respect. I see that. It never morphs into objectification. Let me get back to Mike's question.

I agree. Text messages is now like email. There's a big story in The Atlantic about people just stop returning your emails completely. Emails never really go away. Even everyone predicts their death. Texts feel like that now. It feels like emails now. And he's right.

What is the solution? I don't know. But he's absolutely right. They become annoying and invasive and problematic. But there is no real solution yet to them. I don't know. I hate to say this because it's part of our democracy. no real solution yet to them. I don't know. I hate to say this because it's part of our democracy, but if you decide to give money to a candidate and somehow they get your phone number

and you end up in the DNC data, I literally hear, I am close personal friends with Charles Schumer. Senator Schumer texts me late at night and at some point he's going to start having to send me dick pics or something. But he's like, hey, friend, just a quick note to say, do you want to chip in five bucks to save democracy? I mean, fucking four times a day I hear from Senator Schumer. Me too. I have the same thing. My mother gets it on the opposite side for the Trump people. I have to take them off her phone all the time.

Yeah. So what do you think? What could replace it? Do we have any ideas for Mike? I don't know. One of these AI projections on your hand. You know what I've done? I don't know if you are these AI projections on your hand? You know what I've done? I don't know if you've done this.

So my text message box becomes polluted. Then I go to WhatsApp. That's clean for a little while. And over time, I find WhatsApp and Telegraph are less polluted. All right, Mike, go to WhatsApp and Telegraph. That's our only suggestion. There's not been real innovation in email or text at all. They're very basic, but there certainly could be. It's a good idea, actually, Mike. What could it be? It could be

like AI could just bring you the ones that make sense, although you kind of have to hear about your uncle being in the hospital. My only connection to the outside world is room service right now. I'm just staying in my room, eating edibles and occasionally- Our show runs on text messages, doesn't it? Our show does. It does. You don't really do email. You do text messaging. Tara does not do email.

I'm like the Atlanta. It's useless. I do it sometimes, but not really as little as possible. Anyway, good one, Mike. Congratulations. Listen to it. Watch his show. He's an amazing guy.

Old man in the pool. It's wonderful and touching and beautiful. And I'm excited to see it again. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll make some predictions of our own for 2024. Support for this show comes from Indeed. If you need to hire, you may need Indeed. Indeed is a matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast.

Listeners of this show can get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at Indeed.com slash podcast. Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now and say you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Okay, Scott, now it's time for our predictions, of which we're not ready at all. But go for it, Scott.

You start and I'll think of one while you're talking. You haven't even thought of yours yet? I have. I have. Go ahead. Okay. So, I'm just randomly picking three. And I can't help but play a geopolitical commentator on television. So, I've said this before. I think that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel are going to normalize relations. And I'd like to think that peace and prosperity are going to have a second chance or newfound vigor as the two largest economies normalize relations. I think that President Biden sending these carrier strike forces has ring-fenced the conflict. I think the whole world is coming to the important recognition that you can have empathy for one side, and that doesn't

immediately prohibit you from having empathy for the other. And so, I'm just hopeful that the normalization of relationships, the relations between the kingdom and Israel, will create a lot of economic incentives to maintain something resembling peace. I'd also say that it's not possible with the current leadership on either side, but anyway, it's a longer conversation. Normalization of relations in 2024 between the kingdom and Israel. I believe that the world's largest tax cut

in history is about to take place in 2024 as the US and China and Chinese relations thaw. I think there's gonna be a new bear hug. I think that inflation in the United States is an existential threat across not only the United States, but governments are overthrown. If Roe v. Wade is overturned, people are upset about it, but only a very small number of households are actually impacted. Inflation hits people every day, and it's literally the number one cause of why governments are overthrown or political parties are thrown out of office. So the U.S. and the West have an inflation problem.

China has hit real roadblocks economically, whether you look at their stock market, some of their biggest real estate companies going out of business. And with a one-party system, if you have economic calamity, you tempt or you risk revolution. system, if you have economic calamity, you tempt or you risk revolution. And I think that, well, two years ago, they were definitely feeling very emboldened. I think China now recognizes they cannot take their economic growth for granted. They have had real economic issues the last two years. And the fastest way out of inflation and to renew economic growth across the largest and second largest economies in the world are for the two to kiss and make up. And the IP and innovation of the U.S. combined with the industrial manufacturing might of

China creates every single product in the world for a lower price and a higher quality. The incentives are lining up for both parties to put their differences aside and re-embrace each other. So a normalization or a thawing of U.S.-Cino relations in 2024. All right. And I think, and my final one is, I think that we're going to see, actually two more, a massive amount of disinformation from AI in Q1 and Q2. I've said this before around the election. And I think travel stocks are ranging from Expedia to, I don't know, what's another? Airbnb. By the way, I'm a holder on Airbnb, not on Expedia, are going to boom. I think the traditional dream of owning a home. And because

they're no longer saving two, three, five grand a year in hopes of moving into a home in the late 20s, early 30s, they're going to have more disposable income and they're going to decide to spend it on travel as the traditional American dream of buying a home has just becomes kind of out of reach for them. And I think the travel industry is going to be the unfortunate beneficiary of all this additional disposable income that traditionally has gone into saving for people's first home. 14 million homes have been formed in the last 10 years and only 11 million homes have been built. Average cost of a home pre-pandemic was $290. It's now $420.

And then you couple that with interest rates going from 3% to 7%. The American dream is now a hallucination for most people when it comes to homeownership. And I think people are going to spend more money on travel. Travel stocks to boom. Wow, that's a lot. All right. I have two, I think. One, I think big one.

I don't think Donald Trump is going to be the president of the United States. I think Joe Biden's going to win. And I'm going to say that now. I know these polls are going this way. I think the American people have had it with him. And the more you see of Uncle Crazy, the less you're going to like what you see and remind you of bad times. I don't think you're going to remember the tax cuts. I don't think you remember anything else.

And I think the people will start to feel better about the economy over the next year. I think the age thing is a significant issue, obviously. But he's been doing so well. And I think people are just going to bite the bullet and vote for Joe Biden. And also, there's some real signs the Republican National Committee is way down in fundraising, both small donor and big donor. People don't want to give money that is going to help Donald Trump, I think. And people are very nervous about it. So I'm going to go out on a limb. He's not going to be the president. I think we should calm the fuck down. I don't

think he will. I think it'd be a disaster, obviously. But I don't think the American people, every time there's that Kansas thing happening or what happened in want to move on and there should be the only caveat is this is these third party things and we'll see there could be issues around that but i have i just have this feeling people are like let's just stick with the captain you have a good gut you have a good gut on uh predictions around politics let me ask you a couple follow-ups do you think trump go do you think trump goes to jail yes yes every lawyer i talk to there's's no way he's getting it. Pre or post-election? Well, as long as he gets convicted before the election. If not, he can pardon himself or there'll be a whole mess of things. But that'll be his whole administration is him parting himself and not getting anything done. So, it'll be about him. He'll be just

outrageous and it'll be a useless waste of our time. And I don't think people want to waste their time anymore. What about these third-party candidates? Do you think Joe Manchin's going to run? Do you think RFK Jr.? I don't think he doesn't have the set. I don't, speaking of small, no, I don't think he has the set. I think he's an egomaniac and a narcissist, but I don't think he has what it takes. I think he likes to be in the middle of things, but not the hard work of being a president and doing the things it takes. I even think Trump has got more of a stamina than Joe Manchin. I think both of them do. I don't think he has stamina.

I don't know, but I think RFK will fade as people get to know more about him. I know a lot of people posted about going home and all these young people saying, I'm not going to vote for Joe Biden because of the Israel thing. That's a year from now. I think when they're faced with Donald Trump, they're not going to stay home. And they know what that means. I think people will man up and do the right thing. Anyway, that's my thought on that.

And in tech, I think the Justice Department might win this case with Google. It's looking that way, isn't it? I think they will. I think they've got a good case. I think it's a backward-looking case. and they should be focusing on forward-looking things. But that's not the Justice Department's job here. So I do think they're going to win it. I don't know what the real repercussions will be because it's a story of the past, and search certainly has changed.

That shouldn't be Google's defense here from what they did then, right? It can't say, well, murder's legal now or whatever, you know? They don't have an excuse. What happened happened, and I think they'll probably have an issue. I think they will lose this case, and then it'll just keep going on and on. But I do think the government might prevail here. I don't know about these Facebook cases. They've got a higher bar to prove on things, but it certainly looks like maybe a good year for at least the Justice Department, not so much for regulatory bodies necessarily. Just a prediction on top of a prediction.

If they are in fact found guilty and the remedy may be the breakup, and it's not entirely clear, even if they are found guilty, if that would be the remedy. But if the remedy looks like it's going to be a breakup, Google stock will outperform every other big tech stock in 2024. You are 100% right. YouTube is a juggernaut on its own. I mean, obviously, search is just the ultimate toll booth. And if they were to spin their AI and cloud division together, the sum of the parts, Google on a multiple of revenue basis is cheaper than every other big tech stock right now. Yeah, you're 100% right. You're 100% right about that.

I think that'll be interesting. You're right, it could be. I would spin off YouTube if I were there. They've got plenty there to work with. So we'll see. Those are my predictions. I like that. Pretty basic.

Good, I hope you're right. I hope you're right on all of that. I shall be. I'm good on the political side. I seem to be good on the, I just think people, once they see that guy again, they've seen little bits of that. I shall be. I'm good on the political side. I seem to be good on the political side. I just think people, once they see that guy again, they've seen little bits of him. They'll be like, oh, that guy. That guy.

I hope you're right. The data says we're both wrong. Every time he does. No, the data doesn't. The polling does. The polling was wrong about everything. And I'm sorry, I just don't believe polls. I think there's a silent majority of people who just want to move on from him first. Maybe they want to, they might want to move on from Biden, but they really want to move on from him.

Well, you know what I did last night? I'm alone. I was alone, had an edible, and I took a poll and stuck it up my ass. All right. And we're going to do that. I'll be here all week, try the veal. Let me tell you one other prediction. Scott will continue to make tasteless jokes no matter what to do. I'll be here all week trying to be all. Let me tell you one other prediction. Scott will continue

to make tasteless jokes no matter what I do. And I'm thinking of calling in the Justice Department. If that's right, I don't want to be wrong. John Cantor, call me. What can we do to jail him

with Donald Trump? Pre-Berara. Anyway, Scott, that's the show. Please read us out. Today's show is produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus,

Taylor Griffin, and Travis Larchuk. Ernie Intert tot engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Brose, Mille Saverio, and Gaddy McBain. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. We'll be back for another breakdown of all things tech and business. What is the one prediction you know is foolproof?

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