Pivot - Andrew Arrest Fallout, Colbert Calls BS, Zuck Pushes Back

Episode Date: February 20, 2026

Kara and Scott discuss the arrest of former Prince Andrew as pressure mounts from the Epstein files, and Mark Zuckerberg’s testimony in the social media addiction trials. Then, Stephen Colbert takes... on Paramount and the FCC, Warner Bros. Discovery reopens merger talks with Paramount, and The Pentagon weighs cutting ties with Anthropic. Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠Pivot YouTube channel⁠⁠.Follow us on Instagram and Threads at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcastofficial⁠⁠.Follow us on Bluesky at ⁠⁠@pivotpod.bsky.social⁠⁠Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcast⁠⁠.Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email pivot@voxmedia.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:53 I'm getting old, Karat. Obviously. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. And I am a trad wife. What does that mean? I made bread and butter this morning. Butter from scratch, and I made this delicious bread.
Starting point is 00:02:13 Unwrapped my... Hey, you're really proud of it. You sent me a photo of it? I know. Well, I am. I made it. I know it sounds really stupid, but I get... I'm on...
Starting point is 00:02:21 Here's the whole bread. It's a loaf. It's a baguette. Today is a baguette. And I also made butter with a marble and a jar and some heavy cream last night at dinner. Fresh butter. I'm going to make cultured butter next. I get on Instagram and I'm obsessed with water.
Starting point is 00:02:37 watching food videos, and I save them, and I'm starting to make all of them. What's the next thing you're going to make? I'm going to make different things. I'm just going to do it with Clara. We're going to probably make another bread. We're going for bread and butter. We like bread and butter because I'm a trad wife. So anyway. I like that white supremacist baking company.
Starting point is 00:02:56 He said that his family had a long history of being in bread. Oh, I can't believe you have a bread joke. I have to say it takes me out of... Take shot of your head. Out of my head. It was advice from doing this series that's coming out. So two muffins are in the oven when one turns to the other and says, man, it's so hot in here today.
Starting point is 00:03:18 And the other muffin says, holy shit, it's a fucking talking muffin. I can't believe you have bakery jokes. Kara, my wife has been sleeping around with other men. Our church pastor is coming over tonight to offer advice. And my wife is baking cookies, but I'm embarrassed because the cookies are homemade. I could do this all night. Why do you have them? Are you on the – did you suddenly get on the Internet and said baking jokes?
Starting point is 00:03:41 Is that what happened there? No, I have an incredible memory for 1970s RAM playoff losses and for dad jokes. Dad jokes. Well, those are some good baking jokes. That part of my brain is alive and well. Oh, all right. Well, I'm going to send you a loaf of my bread. I'm going to make butter for – you and I are going to sit.
Starting point is 00:03:58 I made it in 10 minutes. It was crazy. Speaking of good things to do, talk about where is resistant on subscribing? You were on my podcast on Monday. People loved it. We did very well with that. So tell me where we are. Give us a brief update.
Starting point is 00:04:15 So first off, you have been, all of these people are weighing in behind me. And I'm not exaggerating senators, Congress people, media are all of a sudden calling and saying, I love this. You are first. Thank you. Not a fucking peep from anybody I know the first three or four days. Everyone's like, I don't know, it's a little crazy. I don't want to be associated with a failure. He's so arrogant.
Starting point is 00:04:38 Yeah. No, or just like, I don't know about this. And now that it's got some traction. So, yeah, all of a sudden it's got a bit of a second wind. I was on with Nicole Wallace at MS Now. And just the video on YouTube has a half a million views and 3,100 comments. Representative Kinziger's talking about it. Kinziger, yeah.
Starting point is 00:04:59 Kinzinger, excuse me. I just went on the bulwark. Those guys, that got 600. thousand views and 4,000 comments. Yeah, I told you, podcast is a way to go next. Yeah, that's what I've been doing. I took your advice. And I got the ultimate validation was someone I know sent me a screenshot who works at Microsoft and said, your site has been blocked internally, which I thought was pretty interesting. I see that as validation. You're resistant on subscribe? Yeah, that side is, my site is blocked, according to Microsoft
Starting point is 00:05:26 employee. We're not even that mean to Microsoft. Yeah, it's not. So, and I'm getting questions now from different people around how do you evolve this and continue it beyond February. But yeah, I have a new idea. I have a new idea. I would love to hear it. And then most exciting, the most rewarding thing, I'm in Switzerland. And today, taking my kids to the ski lift, kind of that sounded like a total story of privilege. I'm in Switzerland. I'm not exaggerating, Kara. Four separate people came up to me and fist bumped me and said, resist and unsubscribe. Wow. God.
Starting point is 00:06:03 Totally strangers. The resistance has arrived in Zermat. People are coming out to be like, live long and prosper. Resist and unsubscribe. Zermat is now. Tomato belongs to me. Oh, no. Don't do that.
Starting point is 00:06:15 Resist and unsubscribe. Do not do that because that's not a good song. That's actually Germany, F.A. That was a cabaret for people to not understand that. But what's really interesting. This is my new idea. Okay. So the podcast, you got to go into the right,
Starting point is 00:06:31 the right wing a sphere, whatever. Like, don't go on Katie Miller's show because she's a fucking idiot. But, like, you need to get on Rogan. You need to get,
Starting point is 00:06:40 you know, some of the Theo Vons, those people. I did it when they hated me. That I'm un-American and this is desperate. But now they're anti-Trump. You know,
Starting point is 00:06:49 now they're anti-Trump, just so you know, and they're anti-tech. So they've suddenly shifted because they're... I can go on Theo vans. We like each other. Me and Theo or...
Starting point is 00:06:58 I'm just saying. And like, take advantage of like some possibly, maybe smartless or something like that. I got another idea that involves Kara Swisher. I think we should do a live event called Resist and Unsubscribe, and I think it should be a live event hosted in Minneapolis. Oh, let's do it.
Starting point is 00:07:13 I'm any time, you know what? I'm there for you. That's with abs so fucking looting. Let's do it. Let's do it. We're going to do it. Minneapolis. I know just, I'm going to get in touch with people today.
Starting point is 00:07:22 I know exactly who could help us with this. A guy named Tane Danger. Tain Danger? Yes. Isn't that a comic book character? No, he's this great guy that I... Wasn't exposed to some sort of nuclear waste and now he's a superhero? We'll get Tina Smith.
Starting point is 00:07:38 Can we get that Dreamy Mayor? That guy's good looking. I'll get Dreamy Mayor. I just interviewed Dreamy Mayor. Oh, it could be so good. Okay, we're going to talk about this. Anyway, guess what also? AOC was talking about you this week, sort of.
Starting point is 00:07:49 She was in Germany and someone asked her about Scott Galloway's. I thought she was sort of reaching out because she's sort of into me. You think it's a policy thing. I don't think she's into you in any way. Just so, but here's what she said. When someone asked her about your economic boycott, let's listen to what she said. I think that sometimes people can be cynical about these things
Starting point is 00:08:07 and say, oh, well, they don't work. They're highly individualistic. I think we have to try everything. And if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. But at least we try. They're highly, I think she's saying, you're a one-man art, one-man band, but that's fine. But you're not now.
Starting point is 00:08:22 You're now, now you have. Well, let me just call on history here. The most famous one, Montgomery Bus Strike. Everyone's looking for the cinematic moment where someone refuses to give up their seat and everything changes. That's not how it played out, folks. It was an 11-month, 11-month coordinated carpool campaign to pull people off of the municipal bus system. And only after 11 months and $2 million in lost revenue and thousands of car pools, did the municipal system agree to desegregate?
Starting point is 00:08:51 So my question to everyone is, you can pull up in a bike and just unsubscribe to chat cheap. you can pull up in a tractor trailer like Chelsea Handler did and get 110,000 likes on your Instagram post of what you're unsubscribing to. But all of us add up to something bigger. And also, just psychologically and emotionally, I can tell you, it just feels great to be doing something and be doing something with other people.
Starting point is 00:09:15 Yeah, and also it makes sense. It makes sense. It's easy. You can do what you want. You don't have to do it forever. This is what I tell people. Everyone's like, oh, now I really like it. I said, go back to it when they behave.
Starting point is 00:09:25 when they behave the way you want them to behave or at least they acknowledge. Make up your own mind. What do you want to unsubscribe to? When do you want to resubscribe? Yep. And you just might find you don't need Amazon music. By the way, one thing is you have great discussions with your family too because my kids really like Apple Music.
Starting point is 00:09:41 I still haven't gotten rid of it and I'm going to talk to them some more about it. But you don't have to make it like this like virtue signal thing. By the way, speaking of Chelsea Handler, I went to her show, which was great here in D.C. I heard it's a D. She's going to tons of places. but I thanked her on your behalf for doing that. She's great. We had a great time.
Starting point is 00:09:59 She was great. Anyway, we've got to get some of our other celebrity people to get in on it. I'm going to work on that for you, too. Anyway, we've got a lot to get to you today, so let's dig in. This is an astonishing development. Former Prince Andrew has been, we call him former Prince Andrew right now, used to be known as Prince, has been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office by British police. You know, he should be arrested for something else,
Starting point is 00:10:24 but this is what they could get them on. The full details of the arrest are not clear at the time of the taping, but former Prince has been under increasing pressure after the latest release of the Epstein files. Andrew Moundbatten, Windsor, which is his name, was previously stripped of his royal title due to his involvement with Epstein,
Starting point is 00:10:40 finally, after many, many years of this. Meanwhile, Casey Wasserman has decided to put his talent agency in marketing firm up for sale amidst criticism his past relationship with Jolaine Maxwell. There's a ton of people, Dean Kemp, there's so, I sent you the list of people that are, you know, obviously Larry Summers stepped down. Dean Kamen is having trouble. He's the famous robotics guy. All manner of people, the former Prime Minister of Norway, everyone but the guy who said they let you do it, grab the pussy guy, is not being investigated. But this is really interesting. So you're not in England right now, but explain to people what this is akin to arresting a royal. I think the UK just demonstrated more institutional courage in one morning than the entire U.S. Department of Justice has managed in five years.
Starting point is 00:11:33 And it's just ironic. You know, my attitude is, okay, now do Epstein's flight logs. I mean, this is, I mean, some of it's probably pretty political. The crown is probably looking to try and renew their brand in an era where monarchies are. fading. This really is the last monarchy. And also, the prime minister is feeling heat and potentially calls for his resignation. But I think that I think the UK, quite frankly, is actually showing some fidelity to the notion that no one is above the law. Yep, absolutely. I agree. One of the things that's really that's really important is the investigation should have gone on, these investigations that should
Starting point is 00:12:21 have happened how badly prosecutors over the entire period of time from down in Florida to now have fucked this up. In terms of, I think the moment with Pam Bonnie and she had never talked to those people, like all of them are liars. Like, I don't know. Why don't you do an investigation? And so she's obviously not going to because she's bought and paid for. But the fact that they didn't do investigations here on, as you say, the people who are criminally liable. And the other people who are getting, you know, Bill Gates had a pull out of something because of this. Look, that'll play itself out because that's about, I don't think it's about shaming. It's about like, oh, bad judgment.
Starting point is 00:13:00 People are going to have to pay for their actions eventually. But the criminal investigations that haven't gone on here, the ability. And I'd say we owe a debt of gratitude to Rokane and Thomas Massey for pushing this through. And we need, and the redactions that this Bondi Justice Department, is doing are, you know, Ted Liu, who is a trained lawyer, got up and said, there's credible evidence that Donald Trump, this is what he is saying. I have not seen these things, that he has actually assaulted an underage girl. And for him to get up and say that knowing that he's a lawyer is really something. Like, and of course Trump is saying he's exonerated. He's not exonerated. He hasn't
Starting point is 00:13:46 been investigated properly, right? And so, you know, when he's, he's, you know, when he's said, let me just read this again, maybe just maybe, as this feted penny drops, maybe it wasn't locker room talk, right? Do you remember that? I mean, this is what he said. Let me read it. I don't even wait. And when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the pussy. You can do anything. I don't know if he did anything, but I'd like to have investigators, really. I don't know if they need an independent investigator or special counsel. I never like those things, but in this case, everybody's dirty, right? And certainly Pam Bondi has no business being in the job she's in. They should have a special counsel, release all the files,
Starting point is 00:14:30 and especially the criminal stuff, keep it as maybe not release those because they really need to, and it might not lead to anything, but to show that we have what the UK is doing. And there may be a statute of limitations, by the way, Scott, on this stuff. I don't know. That's what's kind of interesting about this specific case with Prince Andrew is that, or the person formerly known as Prince. I know it is kind of funny, but he's not funny. He's gross. But when the feds come for you and say, you've clearly committed engaging criminal activity here, they usually don't get you for what, you know, they got Al Capone for money laundering or for. No, no, for tax. Tax evasion. And Prince Andrew isn't being accused of sexual assault. He's being accused of passing state secrets to a convicted felon.
Starting point is 00:15:17 But that's the point. The point is, if you commit crimes, our, you know, our reaches far and our memory is long. And now I have a different, to me, this is how you handle the Epstein files. And that is, I don't think the Epstein files should have been released. Hmm. I think that the Department of Justice- Because it gets sullied. I know what you're thinking, right?
Starting point is 00:15:40 I think the Department of Justice, any team of lawyers, including outside lawyers, contracted for this very important case. case, should have gone through these things with a fine tooth, Hara and Combe and said, okay, we're going to communicate to the public what is in these files vis-a-vis grand jury indictments and prosecutions. Because I think what has happened is, I think we have been so played here, Kara. If I was advising the Trump administration on how to dilute the depravity here and to get him out of this, I would be doing exactly what they're doing. And that is by dripping it out sclerotically, incorrectly,
Starting point is 00:16:21 some stuff's redacted, some stuff isn't. And then we all chase, we're like a Tyrannosaurus Rex, wherever we see movement and violence and ringlight algorithm shaming, we start talking about fucking Deepak Chopra. Well, we should talk about him too, but go ahead. I disagree. I think it's the Department of Justice is a there for criminal indictments and to create incentives such that if you have a daughter and you're a single mother
Starting point is 00:16:47 and your daughter gets invited to some fucking island, that there's incentives that people who feel entitled to rape your daughter won't. Whether or not someone is a creep or not is a distant, distant second. And all of this bullshit has diluted the criminal act. I don't think it's bullshit. I think it's part of the same thing. And this is like, let me just say, who's the person that said Epstein had legs, this whole thing had legs a long time ago when everyone thought it was going to go away? this is one at the heart of the MAGA infrastructure, as I noted. It is also at the heart of a lot of it's true, right? Some of it's true.
Starting point is 00:17:20 Some of it's not. But it is part of a whole movement around corruption of the elites. And this is the worst version of it. And I think we do need to talk about people. Andrew did this because he knew. I'm on board. Andrew's being criminally prosecuted. But I'm saying he did it because he thought he didn't, as you say, he's not bound by the law, right?
Starting point is 00:17:40 Right now breaking New Mexico. Mexico investigators open a probe into whether Epstein ordered the burial of bodies on a Zorro ranch property. We need to investigate this fully and wherever it takes us. So for it to have to just get out and get everyone's attention, the normal people, not the Q&N people, I think this has so many drip, drip, drip, drip legs that it's going to, is absolutely going to reach Trump. This should have been dozens, if not hundreds of indictments. Yep. And prosecutions from an institution we trust. That's right.
Starting point is 00:18:10 But we don't trust this Justice Department. And or the appointment of a special counsel. Special counsel is the only one. Or saying a cabinet member didn't look to commit a crime. But when he went under oath in front of Congress and bragged that he had nothing to do with this person. No, he did that on a podcast, but go ahead. Well, he, he, oh, really? He hasn't done it under oath?
Starting point is 00:18:31 No, no, under oath, he told the truth. So I feel that all of the, I feel all of the shaming feels really good. and it does say something about these individuals, I think it is diluting and weakening the case against the actual criminals here. Well, I don't know. I think you can do both. You can just walk and chew gum at the same time.
Starting point is 00:18:51 I think John Ossoff, who's running for Senate, has come up with a brilliant term. And that is a lot of Democrats, how we lose is this stereotyping and keyboard virtue signaling that if you're like all white people are racist, all billionaires are evil and all young men are sexist, fine, they're going to leave the part.
Starting point is 00:19:11 and we're going to have Vance as president. What Aosop has done is really smart. He has started describing this group of people as he doesn't say the billionaire class. He says the Epstein class. Because the majority of Americans like the idea of being rich someday and believe that if they get richer,
Starting point is 00:19:29 it doesn't necessarily mean they're going to become depraved weirdos. I agree. So I think that is a really powerful distinction, that there is a class of people. Most rich people, I do not believe, are like. this, but there is a class of people who believe they are, again, as we talk about, protected by the law, but not bound by it.
Starting point is 00:19:48 Well, I think it's, as I saying, let me move to the next thing, because it's part of this, everyone's tired of these fucking rich people taking everything. Like, so right now, Mark Zuckerberg took the stand this week that in this landmark social media addiction trial, defending meta against claims Instagram was designed to hook young users and damage mental health. Zuckerberg said in his testimony that Instagram was not a harmful product. It's a valuable service. Of course, you'd say that. He said that all along. He believes. He's navigated the safety of young users in a reasonable way. He has not. He also defended the company's
Starting point is 00:20:18 decision to allow beauty filters even after experts warn they could calm teen girls, including people internally. When pressed about old e-mails and growth targets, Zuckerberg repeatedly pushed back saying the same answer more than a dozen times, you're mischaracterizing this. This is an old Mark Zuckerberg trick. We don't understand him. Neither of us are lawyers, and it's a really complex case. And what, two things, It's not just Facebook. It is also YouTube is involved in this one. Others settled. Other social media sites seem to have settled here. And it's not clear if YouTube is going to settle before this, but this idea of whether they're entertainment or they're actually addictive. The lawyers for the tech
Starting point is 00:20:57 company's sides are going to try to portray this young woman who got on Instagram when she was nine as troubled had nothing to do with social media. She's alleging that social media dragged her down an addictive hole of shame and self-esteem. It's a jury trial. I'm putting Mark in front of a jury helps or hurts. He's not great at that. And he also, the judge wasn't happy to see Meta's Rayban AI glasses worn by several members of Zuckerberg's team, which I thought was super fucking obnoxious to do for Zuckerberg to use it as a marketing event. She warned anyone wearing smart glasses to be held in contempt, no any concern about facial recognition of it. So just thoughts on this case, because I think it's really fat.
Starting point is 00:21:40 There's thousands of more behind it, by the way. There's smoking guns everywhere, but the real smoking gun I would focus on if our advising the prosecution is their own internal research. So let's go through a body image. It's not a prosecution. It's a civil lawsuit. It's civil. But the people, the plaintiff's attorney or whatever you would call. Their own internal research regarding body image harm.
Starting point is 00:22:05 We make body image issues worse for one and three. teen girls. This is according to a 2019 internal meta presentation. 32% of teen girls said that when they felt bad about their bodies, Instagram made them feel worse. That was a March 2020 internal presentation. Meta's leaked internal research showed that 32% of teen girls, one-third, said Instagram made them feel worse about their bodies and the company knew it. Addiction by design, meta-employee internal message. I worry that driving session incentivize us to make our products more addictive without providing much more value. How to keep someone returning over and over the same behavior each day, question mark. Intermittent rewards are most effective.
Starting point is 00:22:44 Think slot machines. In focus groups, teens told us they didn't like the amount of time they spent on the app and they felt like they had to be present. They often felt addicted and know that what they're seeing is bad for their mental health, but they feel unable to stop themselves. On depression and anxiety, teens blame Instagram for increases, the rate of anxiety and depression, said another slide in a 2019 presentation. This reaction was unprompted and consistent across all groups. This is their own research. Also, their own research showed they have 4 million kids between 10 and 12 on the platform when it's not supposed to be. 13 is when they're not. They didn't have age verification, which isn't very good anyway,
Starting point is 00:23:28 on the platform until 2019. This is what kids. kills me with these people. It's like, how did, how did four million, it's like, oh, four million kids got into liquor stores somehow? Are you fucking kidding me, four million kids? How did that happen without them knowing it? When they know everything that is happening on that platform, whenever they go into this, I don't, you know, kids can get into things, you know, my kid just got into the refrigerator and took a, you know, took a cookie the other day. That's what they act like. And in their own, let me tell you, I can't tell you how many times I have harangued Mark Zuckerberg on safety. And people inside the company harangued him on safety.
Starting point is 00:24:11 He just didn't agree. And because he cannot be fired, if the board decides to fire him, he can fire the board and point a new board that likes him, he can make decisions on his own. And we are all subject to decisions of one person who has no accountability on him been making bad decisions, whether it's about anti-Semitism, whether it's about anything. And he always, and he did this again. I sighed for free speech or not, you know, the filter thing. Like, well, I decided not to act paternalistic. Okay, Mark, don't act paternalistic toward adult users. We get it. But you absolutely have to act paternalistic towards young people.
Starting point is 00:24:51 Like the safety issues about young, the fact that they still stick to their idiotic guns when it comes to young people, Let me mention another big tech suit that just broke. Apple just got sued by West Virginia for alleged failure to curb child sexual abuse materials on iOS devices and cloud services. They should sue GROC. They should sue all of them for these things. And this is the way these companies are going to go down, like the cigarette companies. And they still, to me, and I'll stop ranting, his testimony show me once again, he is absolutely intractable in his decision that everything he decides is. correct. And it is simply not. Let me be fair, YouTube is bigger, but it's all the same to me.
Starting point is 00:25:37 They're all enormous and deleterious to the impact on our kids, period. Just one more piece of data. Between 2010 and 2015, the number of eighth grade through 12th graders exhibiting high levels of depressive symptoms increased by 33 percent. In the same period, the suicide rate for girls in that age group increased by 65 percent. By 20 percent. 2015, 92% of teens owned a smartphone. And today, here and now, let's talk a little bit about young men. Young men, between the ages of 20 and 30, are spending less time outdoors than prison inmates.
Starting point is 00:26:12 The data here, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of families whose kids have killed themselves. There are millions of families struggling with anxiety and depression. And there's a lot of different factors here, but this definitively has made things worse. The good news is that I do think finally, and I've said this before and I've been wrong, but I'm going to say it again,
Starting point is 00:26:38 I think the worm is turned. And that is typically it takes 20 to 30 years before the public moves in on a well-funded addictive substance that is creating harm across our society. It took us 30 years with tobacco. It took us 20 years with opiates. It looks like it's going to take us about 20 years.
Starting point is 00:26:56 years here. But what you're seeing is it's getting tied up in politics in sort of a good way. And that is I think the tariffs, I think the ultimate reciprocal tariff from different nations is going to be they're going to start banning U.S. tech companies. And they're going to use this as a valid excuse. They're going to say, you're out. We're age-gating. We're banning this or they're going to ban an entire platform. But it does feel like we're at a turning point. Well, the only thing, this is a jury trial. This is what's really interesting because what I think is going to be the problem for them is, and by the way, sometimes like when some of the FTC stuff, I see why Facebook or whatever company won in certain ones of them, right? But jury members,
Starting point is 00:27:36 either they have kids and get it, know it in their bones, or they themselves are addicted. And to call it problematic usage, when it's everybody who you, I'm addicted to food videos on your, on threats, Mark, I can't stop watching them. And I am not an addictive. I don't drink. I don't take drugs. I am absolutely addicted. There is no question in my mind. And same with you, right? Some of it's good.
Starting point is 00:28:04 Some of it's good. And most of the time I use, I was looking at the time spent. I use it for texting, like bothering you, for example. But a lot of it is addiction. And this jury is going to hand you your head if you keep insisting it's problematic usage.
Starting point is 00:28:19 We don't think you're totally at fault. I'm sure this poor girl had problems in her family life. But this is a contributing factor, just like people can have bad families and smoke cigarettes. It is part of a thing that is making us worse as a country. And the same thing with Apple. They should get sued. They should all get sued.
Starting point is 00:28:42 And then we can have it out in court. Same thing with the Epstein victims and the perpetrators. Let's have it all out in court. Let's do it. Like if we lose, we lose. But if we win, we win. And that, to me, is the fairest thing. I think it'll start with the kids.
Starting point is 00:28:57 What I'm curious is if it starts to melt upwards, and that is- Like cigarettes. Well, the kids are the biggest problem, right? And that's the one we're most sensitive to. That's where cigarettes started. I also think there's a real issue around the coarsening of our discourse. I think it's making us all more anxious and making us all hate each other more.
Starting point is 00:29:16 I think if you type into open AI how to ruin youth or how to undermine the power of the United States, both times it'll come back with something that resembles social media. There's just people, there's a reason in a lot of it's economic that young people feel worse and worse about America, but social media is basically, it's like when you're in the third grade and two kids start having words and everyone surrounds them and shoves them and says, fight, fight, encourages them to fight. That's happening a trillion times a day on these platforms. It's turning, even amongst I was spending a lot, I'm thinking a lot about how ways the left
Starting point is 00:29:53 might fuck it up and lose in 26 and 28. Okay. And one of those ways is the algorithms do a really good job of convincing people who agree on 90% of things to find the 10% they don't agree on and figure out a way to get them fighting and hating each other. You know, it's just, it really is ripping at the fabric of society. I think our adversaries are sitting back and watching this
Starting point is 00:30:20 and just loving it. Yeah, I'm going to read from a very famous author. Let me just read this. All these companies began with a grosey credo to change the world, but they have done that in ways they did not imagine by weaponizing pretty much everything that could be weaponized. They have mutated human connections so that connecting people has often to become about pitting them against one another and turbocharged that discord to an unprecedented and damaging volume. They have weaponized social media. They have weaponized the First Amendment. They have weaponized civil discourse. And they have weaponized most of all politics. I wrote that in 2018. I got screamed at
Starting point is 00:30:52 by Facebook and the tech people for saying that they were digital arms dealers. That's what they are. You have your time. I'm just telling you, it's just like enough, enough. And it begins, the cigarette companies began with Joel Camel, them using cartoons. They were that cynical that they used cartoons to attract kids to smoke. It's the same thing. And they need to stop.
Starting point is 00:31:15 And same thing. And by the way, let me not just pick on Mark Zuckerberg. Apple, you need to do something about CSAM. Grock, you should be taken to court. Google. YouTube needs to be fixed in ways that people, kids don't become incredibly addicted to what you're doing. And to pretend otherwise, just because you have money, you can run over all these senators and congressmen, you're not going to run over all of us. That's my feeling. Anyway, that's enough. I'm going to stop. All right, we're going to go on a quick break. When we get back, Cole Bayer takes on Paramount and the FCC.
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Starting point is 00:35:27 Vanta.com slash pivot. Scott, we're back. Late night host Stephen Colbert is calling out CBS and his parent company Paramount for not standing up to the bullies. Colbert revealed this week that CBS lawyers told him he could not air an interview with Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Tellerico. There were concerns about running a foul of FCC chairman Brandon Carr, the moron, as I like to call him.
Starting point is 00:35:57 And the FCC's equal time rule, Colbert ended up posting the interview on YouTube, whereas of this recording, it has nearly 7.5 million views. The broadcast typically gets around 2.5 million viewers. This is just one single interview. Colbert summed up the irony on his Tuesday episode. Let's listen. So we obeyed our network and put the interview on YouTube where it's gotten millions of views.
Starting point is 00:36:24 And I can see why. Talarico is an interesting guy. I don't know if he should be the senator, but it was a good discussion. I wish we could have put it on the show, where no one would have watched it. CBS initially, they've been very quiet lately, has been pushing back on Colbert's version events
Starting point is 00:36:40 saying the show was not prohibited from airing the Telarico and UN TV but was given legal guidance and options. I've been in that sphere. Colbert took issue with that statement, calling it crap, and it indeed is crap. All of this has been a major boost for Telarica who raised more than $2.5 million in the first 24 hours
Starting point is 00:36:57 after the interview went on YouTube. Brandon Carr, the moron, is calling it a hoax, by the way, saying Telarica did this for the purpose of raising money and getting clicks, except he then, on this interview he did, I think it was on Fox, said, oh, I would have enforced it. So he said he would have done what Colbert said he would have done. And then also noted that the way he's trying to thinking about enforcing this equal time rule has not been done in forever. So he just admitted, calling it a hoax and then admitted he was going to do exactly what they said he was going to do,
Starting point is 00:37:30 again, a moron. And he thought, this is like some story. And I love Colbert, I think, is handling it beautifully. I don't think he's being too virtue signally, but it is definitely a nail in the coffin for broadcast television. Just to step back and try and understand the real dynamics and the shape of power here, because we've moved from a democracy and capitalism to an autocracy and kleptocracy, this is what's going on.
Starting point is 00:37:55 The president has made it clear he will exercise his authority unilaterally and illegally in my view, to decide who gets to acquire which companies. And essentially, he has decided that, okay, if the Ellisons who own Paramount and CBS fly their partisan pro-Trump flag, I will figure out a way to get them Time Warner. And so they are very sensitive to trying to not offend him, placate him, do whatever he wants, regardless of the First Amendment. the excuse they're using as the following. The FCC's equal time rule is a federal law that requires broadcast stations to provide equivalent air time to all legally qualified candidates for the same political office. That theoretically makes sense, right? Historically, though, the FCC has
Starting point is 00:38:51 exempted many entertainment talk shows, and now they've decided to update this, and they're selectively enforcing it. And by the way, folks, curiously, Chairman Carr has not yet attempted to apply these rules to any conservative talk shows. He's sued. He's investigating the view just on ABC for having Teller Rico on. The view and Colbert. By the way, Colbert has had Jasmine Crocket on, and has probably asked right-wing people. This is so ridiculous, but this is what has happened.
Starting point is 00:39:21 There's a decent chance that FCC Chair Carr has given Representative Tala RICO a decent shot of being a senator in Texas now. This has done nothing but bolster. Tala Rico raised two and a half million dollars in the subsequent 48 hours. The big loser here is the FCC and Trump. This is backfired. This is blown up in their face. The Ellison's, the Ellisons are now sitting on top of a collapsing asset. And in addition, the other loser here, just quite frankly, is Jasmine Crockett. because she came out. Unfortunately, this has elevated Tala Rico and Colbert to hero status. And Crockett wishes she was the one that got, you know, that got sort of blacklisted, right?
Starting point is 00:40:14 Because they were running neck and neck, and the likelihood, according to the prediction markets that... But it wasn't quite neck and neck. It was like 60, 40. It was pretty close, I think. No, no, the prediction markets were, he was winning quite substantively, but not as much. He went from 63 to 77. Yeah, right. But that's what I mean.
Starting point is 00:40:33 63 is a lot. Right. That's, I mean, that's basically, when you're at 77, it's kind of said or it's getting to the point where it looks like the race may be over. There's also early voting going on and Democratic voting is all-time high. It's crazy high and it's surpassing Republicans. I'm going to link it, speaking of the Ellicons. One of two things. Warner Brothers Discovery.
Starting point is 00:40:56 Let me just tell you, David, maybe this. media thing isn't your best look. Warner Brothers' discovery is reopening negotiations with Paramount for the best and final offer, but the clock is ticking. Netflix is granted Warner a seven-day waiver for these Paramount talks. The deadline is February 23rd. Zazlov wrote to Paramount's board that David Zaslov, who's the CEO, Warner, welcomes the opportunity to see whether they're going to expeditiously deliver a proposal that provides superior value, meaning he's not calling it superior value. Paramount has indicated it will raise its bid to $31 a share and has agreed to cover Warner's $2.5 billion breakup fee owed to Netflix, which it should have done in the first
Starting point is 00:41:32 fucking place. A lot of these things they just agreed to, they should have done months ago. Netflix co-CEO-C., Ted Serendos, explained why he agreed to this in an interview with CNBC. Let's listen. We've given the opportunity to get those shareholders exactly what they deserve, which is complete clarity and certainty about what the value of these deals are. What we're certain is, is that the Netflix deal to acquire these assets is the best deal, generates the best value for their shareholders. And they think so too. That's why they recommended the deal and why they reiterated recommending that deal post this. So give them seven days to put their money where their mouth is. He's so smart. I've got to say the other part before you go in, they have to, they have to
Starting point is 00:42:12 give more money. Really, that's, if they give more money, they'll probably get it. That said, there's been really, you know, even though most of the narrative has been anti-netflix with Paramount has done quite a bit of the making that happen. This idea that they will have to cut Paramount will be disastrous because they're going to have to cut because of the finances here. They will, they will decimate employment in Hollywood. And Netflix will not. Both of them face different challenges, both regulatory and what's going to happen. Warner Brothers is scheduled the shareholder vote on the Netflix deal from March 20th. We'll see what happens. David Ellison was at the White House last week, by the way. This after Trump said in an interview, he wasn't
Starting point is 00:42:52 involved in the deal. Who knows? And let me link this to Anderson Cooper. He's leaving 60 Minutes, which is a CBS property after 20 years. He's still at CNN, of course. He'd signed a big deal with an $18 million deal with them recently. So if this deal works out for impairment, they could take Warner's cable properties and his right to find himself back. The reason he did so was he said he was to spend time with his family. He didn't want to work with Barry Weiss, that I know this to be true. He didn't like where 60 Minutes was going. And he also didn't like what was happening to his colleagues. He's a great journalist. And he just didn't want to work with these people. So, because he thinks, I would assume, he thinks they're lesser than, and they are compared to him.
Starting point is 00:43:33 So another high profile exit, not just Anderson, Taylor Sheridan left, who does Yellowstone. A lot of messes there, both in the news division and obviously with Colbert. He'll be leaving in May. Your thoughts on these two things with the Ellison's? They seem to be really, they may still win it, but boy, they look like idiots. Well, first off, the way this is supposed to work in a capitalist society, is the person who shows up with the biggest bag of money gets preliminary approval by the shareholders,
Starting point is 00:44:03 and then it goes under regulatory review to make sure that there's not too great a concentration of power. In my view, neither of these companies should be able to acquire Warner Brothers because it's too much concentration of power. Having said that, this is the world we live in. One of them is going to get it. What's interesting is that it's clearly now such a kleptocracy
Starting point is 00:44:22 that on Kalshi, the likelihood that Paramount takes over WBD, because it has become obvious that the president is doing the Ellison's bidding is now 53 percent, and Netflix's odds have fallen to just 36 percent. So it's neck and neck on Pauley Market, just so you know. Paramount has sweetened the deal. They agreed to pay a $2.8 billion fee that WBD would owe Netflix if the merger agreement falls apart. They also added a ticking fee of 25 cents per share paid to Warner shareholders for every quarter that the deal isn't closed starting next year.
Starting point is 00:44:59 And the total cash bid was raised to $78 billion back in December. Here's what I don't understand. The union, SAGA-AFTRA and the Writers Guild, decide to strike at exactly the wrong moment a couple of years ago and basically took everyone not worked for seven months in order to get nothing in exchange when they decided to strike at a weak point. And yet now, you just reference this. If the Ellison's own, they've already overpaid for Paramount, which looks to be through a series of...
Starting point is 00:45:35 Leaky yacht, I call it a leaky yacht. Which looks to be just one after the other creating self-inflicted wounds, that they just unforced errors, ungoals, whatever you want to call, that are substantially reducing the equity value and showing how much they did, in fact, overpay. whether it's CBS News going from 5 million viewers to 4 million in one week after the anchor transition, 60 minutes might go away. I mean, these things literally- Why would you stick? Why would you poke that in the eye? That actually was successful. Oh, you, yeah, yeah. So they've overpaid for Paramount. They're probably going to have to overpay, and I understand why, the rationale for Warner, such that they can get something resembling consolidation. But hey, hey, Riders Guild, hey Sagafra, what the fuck do you think? Ellison, one of the largest providers of inference and compute for AI, what do you think their idea is going to be to rationalize costs and somehow get a return on investment here? What do you think it's going to have to say what you want about Ted Sarandos?
Starting point is 00:46:39 He's a discipline operator. He likes the old Hollywood model. He likes... Well, some of it. Some of it he likes. Some of it he doesn't. Yeah, but he's not. Oh, my God.
Starting point is 00:46:47 They've got the theater owners in there. Compared to Larry Ellison. Agreed. He is in love with those makeup artists and those actors. Larry Ellison is going to leave you Hollywood people naked without clothes. He's going to say, I have an idea. He's going to. I know of. He will. Let's take the 40 movie release with an average budget of $140 million. And let's do 60 million. Let's do 60 movies at 14 million each using AI. That's right. And where do those cost efficiencies come from? That's correct. Instead of having 18 costume designers on the Fantastic Five, they're going to have one in an engentic layer. And by the way, it'll probably be AI slop. I don't think it'll work.
Starting point is 00:47:33 But you don't think they're going to go through and say, okay, Warner Brothers film unit, you are now, you need to lay off 40% of your staff or cut production costs by 40%. And it's all going to come out of layer. And where the fuck is, I can't believe the unions aren't like it's Netflix or where. We are not working with these folks. I think you're finally right about these unions. I mean, I think it's not great. Listen, listen, the theater issue is a big one. But you know what?
Starting point is 00:48:00 Consumers don't like the theaters as much. Listen to consumers. It's not because that tech did something. They did. They gave them an alternative to the consumers like that. We all have our own theater now. It's at home. What they should be caring about is the economic livelihood
Starting point is 00:48:13 of the people actually producing the content. Correct. But the issue is the expenses. Like, I was just, as I said, I did this heated rivalry interview. I mean, they made that show. which is an enormous hit for, which is, by the way, on HBO Max, for two million to three point five million an episode,
Starting point is 00:48:30 Stranger Things, 50 to $60 million an episode. I mean, and the government helped pay for it. There's no way our government's going to help pay for a gay hockey love story. But that said, it's the economics are changing so drastically. You don't even have to use AI to understand you need to change the economics. And let me tell you, in no uncertain terms,
Starting point is 00:48:50 having covered Larry Ellison for 30 years, He is going to do what it takes. He has no sentimentality toward anything except making more money. And so he will do whatever it takes, and that includes squeezing all of you and for his benefit. And I know David loves movies, et cetera, et cetera, but at some point, this is not a romantic fantasy of saving Hollywood. It's not, that's what kills me. And here's the thing. I don't think the, I think the Elsin's have misplayed this so badly.
Starting point is 00:49:21 taken too long. They should have done all those things they just agreed to months ago to make it better. They should have increased the price if they really wanted it. They're being very cute here. And all they do is attack Netflix. They are very prime for attack. And then meanwhile, over at CBS, we're getting a preview of their shitty management and their shitty decisions, whether it's Taylor Sheridan, which I thought was in massive miss. Anderson, Anderson Cooper, who you may end up buying, the Ellison may have buying and being his boss, he cares so little for them.
Starting point is 00:49:55 He's willing to quit 60 minutes, and he's going to, whatever happens, if they become his boss, that's how much he doesn't like them. They could end up being his boss in 15 minutes. That should tell you everything about it. Is quality people don't want to be affiliated with it. So, listen, I agree.
Starting point is 00:50:15 probably this consolidation is a problem. And there probably was a better, I don't know what the better deal here. I thought the spin-off was the best idea for now, and then later they could sell the film studio. That was my feeling. That was my feeling on the whole thing. But this is where it's headed,
Starting point is 00:50:32 and the Ellicons are showing you exactly how they manage a property, and you should pay attention to it. For the life, for me, I can't figure out why the unions haven't come out and said, if Paramount gets this, we're out. Yep.
Starting point is 00:50:48 We're out. Good luck managing this thing. The whole thing. Day one after this closes, we're shutting the whole fucking thing down. No TV production, no movie production. Pay attention to people. You know they offered Anderson Cooper a fortune to run, to be the head of, to be the face of 60 minutes. And even he couldn't do business with them.
Starting point is 00:51:07 So I'm just saying, a lot of money. You know, and by the way, he should spend more time with his kids, but that's not what happened here. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about the Pentagon's fight with Anthropic. This is something else. Support for today's show comes from SelectQuote. It's time to talk about life insurance. If you have a policy right now, do you know how much you're paying for it?
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Starting point is 00:54:31 your job for free or connect to top talent ready to help your business grow. That's UPWRK.com, upwork. Scott, we're back with more news. There's so much news. It's all different. The Panagon is considering cutting ties with Anthropic amid a dispute over how Claude can be used by the military. Anthropic wants limits on use as light for weaponry that. buyers without human input and mass domestic surveillance seems reasonable, but the Pentagon wants access for all lawful purposes. OpenA, Google, and XA have agreed to have models deployed in a lawful use case as in principle. Pete Hegsef is reportedly also considering labeling Anthropica supply chain risk, which could force contractors seeking to work with the U.S.
Starting point is 00:55:20 military to stop using Claude. Senior Pentagon officials said the change will be a pain in the ass, and the Pentagon would make sure Anthropic pays a price. Pete Hecht is a fucking idiot. He just actually let go of someone who has an incredible, he forced out this colonel who had this incredible record just because he's competent. Really interesting, there was just a picture from, I think it was India, where the Anthropic CEO and Sam Maltman wouldn't hold the hands for a second together, which was funny. They're in a big beef, but that's a separate beef. This is really interesting. I'd love to know what you think about this because they're not, they're standing firm. It looks like Anthropics is like, we're not going to be used, you know, to attack humans without.
Starting point is 00:56:00 a human intervention or domestic surveillance, etc. Yeah, so the Pentagon, they're threatening to sever. It's $200 million relationship with Anthropic. Yeah, not big, not too big. Because the AI firm insists on maintaining limitations on how the military uses their LLM. Anthropics red lines are no mass surveillance of Americans and no fully autonomous weaponry, right?
Starting point is 00:56:22 So, but this is yet another example of a loss of capitalism. This is technically a very severe form of socialism, and that is the state has decided they control the means of production. Private companies are allowed to have their own guidelines, and if those guidelines mean they can't work with a military contractor, they get to make that decision. So this is, and them trying to shame them and threaten them economically
Starting point is 00:56:53 is the worst type of socialism. So all of these quote-unquote free market people claiming, this is private companies, Vox gets to decide if it doesn't want to work with the Pentagon. And so if they sign a contract, fine, they have to live up to their contract. But the fact that Anthropic has these guidelines, I again think this is a bit of a cold bear moment for Anthropic, and that is Anthropic, it starts their hat white in an environment where the majority of Americans feel really uneasy about AI. So Anthropic has sort of positioned itself as the clean, well-lit corner of the bookstore here. Like Apple and privacy
Starting point is 00:57:38 or Apple and not big brother. A hundred percent. We're the good guys. And so I, as we sit here today, I actually think that Anthropic, or in the next 12 months from this one of our predictions, is going to be worth more than open AI. But this is a win-frame. anthropic and another example of the government deciding they get to dictate, they're not breaking the law. The government gets to dictate vis-a-vis laws that, okay, you can't discriminate based on someone's sexual orientation, race, ethnicity, gender, whatever. They can enforce that. There's no law saying that if you're a company that doesn't want to engage in mass surveillance of citizens, that you have to work with the government. This is socialism gone awry. This is, this is
Starting point is 00:58:25 market intervention where there shouldn't be any. And when it comes from on Pentagon stationary, I mean, they might as well just have had Donald Trump sign this. Yeah. I think this is actually going to be. It's a Texass. Will you do what I say? It's a Colbert moment. Dario Amodi is being like Colbert and sticking up the middle finger. Yeah. And a lot of enterprises and a lot of consumers are going to go, you know, I like a company that refuses to engage in mass surveillance of its own citizens. Yeah. I think this is a good thing. Anyway, we'll see, Pete Hags says, you're also a moron. Anyway, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. Okay, Scott, we're going to talk about predictions. But first, I have one prediction I'm going to make, but I want to do this first. The U.S. military is moving into place for a possible Iran strike, probably because this Epstein stuff is getting hot again for Trump as early as this weekend. Scott, let's hear what you said in January.
Starting point is 00:59:27 Bottom line is my prediction is that I think we're about to see the U.S. conduct a military strike on Iran. Now, you thought it was pretty quickly, but it's happening possibly this weekend. They've amassed an enormous amount of military might in the region, probably, I think, more than when they were doing the last war they were over there. So the things are in place, the battleships are in place. Do you want to talk about that, or do you have a different prediction? Oh, no, I think it's on. And let me be clear. I like this. I would like to see. I think the Islamic Republic is one of the most misogynistic, brutal regimes in the world right now. And I think Iran has the potential to be an outstanding ally. And I think if, and there's a lot of unknowns here, regime change, you know, brings its own risk. And why he's doing it at this moment. But go ahead. But he can be doing it for the wrong reasons and can still have a good outcome. I'm absolutely. 100% in favor of this. And I think that Iran being, quote, unquote, just less oppressive,
Starting point is 01:00:32 less brutal, will be really good for the region and really, especially good for the women of Iran. If they can complete what they need to complete, if they just don't and they just beat them up again and then leave, it's a different issue. Well, I think the regime is hobbled, and I think this could tip it over. And not to get too much in the Jesus, I think they need to coordinate with the Mossad and have agents on the ground and do a series of of targeted executions, quite frankly, or assassinations, executions or armed assassinations. But I'm a huge,
Starting point is 01:01:04 I'm a huge proponent of this. If you look at troop movements, whether it's refueling planes, supply chain cargo, aircraft carriers, specialized operations troops, they are either playing serious poker or they are about to do this imminently. They kind of have to, right?
Starting point is 01:01:20 And Trump's probably in the mood. I think the other at factor here is he has his state of the union on Tuesday. I think he can't complete a state of the union. I just... Well, he also wanted to distracts from the Epstein files. Epstein files. He loves the macho flex of what happened to Venezuela.
Starting point is 01:01:36 This he thinks is going to be part two, right? And also, Rubio positions himself for president with these types of actions. And Rubio is probably whispering in his ear, this would be a great move for us. I'd be very curious how our allies in the region, what they think of this. but I think it's on. And I have thought, if you just look, if you just track troop movements, ship movements, supply chain movements, I mean, we are moving a lot of stuff to the region. And we are sort of, we are ready to go.
Starting point is 01:02:10 We are at the starting line. Yeah, he'll cancel the state of the union would be my guess if this is happening. That's interesting. I thought of that. And I don't think he can complete one. I don't. I think he is quite losing it as, you know, in some fashion. I'm not so sure he's, I think, I know he seems vibrant, but I suspect that there's problems around that.
Starting point is 01:02:29 That's just me. One of, what the only prediction I would say is today, Wired published a story about the gay mafia in Silicon Valley. They had written me about it and I was like, there's no such thing. There just isn't. Sorry. Yeah, I know. It's a story that they wanted to work on. They had contacted me years ago about it.
Starting point is 01:02:47 And they're like, let's talk about you in the gay. I'm like, there is no, I don't have friends with Kim Cook. There's no gay mafia. I mean, sorry. But I thought it was a silly idea, and I still think it is. And I have to say, I think they're going to get a lot of pushback for the illustration, which shows two hands coming out of two crotches, one with a rainbow, you know, Apple Watch on. But the penises are hands and they're shaking.
Starting point is 01:03:11 So I thought that was so fucking insulting to gay people. I'm sorry, guys. That was a terrible illustration. Like, I don't usually, I usually laugh at most like jokes about gays, but Oh, my God, you don't have to have, you know, penis hands. Well, there's definitely no gay mafia, but it's obvious that Jews run the world. I mean. What the fuck?
Starting point is 01:03:30 But why do you have penis hands? We don't need penis hands. Yeah, just speaking along those lines, George Hahn pointed out something that really struck me as very insightful. I think they're getting trouble for it. That's my prediction because it's stupid and it's really offensive and I don't usually get offended. So that's my meter. But go ahead. We referenced heated rivalry before and he said the thing he loved about heated rivalry.
Starting point is 01:03:47 And it just struck me as so true is that he felt it was the first time that, did not one, but both gay men were depicted as just incredibly high performance, good-looking, functional, like impressive men. One wasn't neurotic or, quote-unquote, very flamboyant, or one wasn't struggling with some. They're just both really impressive men. And I literally tick through every depiction of gay romance, and he's right. There's usually one person that feels... Must means have gotten a better shake recently. Cagney and Lacey?
Starting point is 01:04:20 No. Elwood and things. like that. But yes, I agree with you. I agree. There's a great book that I recommend it. Vito Rousseau, The Celluloid Closet, is a history of how gays were depicted. And it continues to stay. And for gay men, they do not get as much complexity as these two. I'd agree with you. Yep. Absolutely. Well, to a certain extent, the Epstein class has sort of diminished the comfortable notion that gay people are more inclined to be pedophiles. No, it's rich white dudes that seem to be more inclined. It does. God. Rich, straight white dudes.
Starting point is 01:04:51 Yeah, and let me tell you, go straight to hell for doing anyone who did that to go straight to hell. Anyway, on that note, no more penis handshakes. Anyway, we want wired. I love you, Katie, but. I don't get a prediction. You just rolling right over me. No, no, go ahead. No, now you've another one.
Starting point is 01:05:08 Go ahead. What was my prediction? Military, Iran. Well, I made that one a month ago. All right, okay. What's your new? You don't want to see. Just reiterated.
Starting point is 01:05:16 No, I feel hurt. I feel ashamed. Okay, go ahead. Okay, fine. We're bombing around. Never mind. No, go ahead. No, what's your prediction?
Starting point is 01:05:21 Well, I don't know if you've noticed, but about $1 trillion in value has been destroyed amongst the biggest AI players since the beginning of the year. Yes. As you noting they would. And what's interesting about it is, I mean, a few things needed to happen, either revenues needed to even jump more to justify the massive CAPEX, and that didn't happen. So their stocks have come down. What's really interesting, in my opinion, is that what also happened, though, is that people still think these technologies, I mean, just an example, Amazon's off 14%. Microsoft's off 17%. Apple has dropped. Amazon's had its worst couple weeks in several years.
Starting point is 01:06:03 Yeah, they've lost, whoo, huge, 500 billion? They've lost a lot. But what's also interesting is there's been a trillion-dollar wipeout its SaaS companies, and that was when Anthropic unveiled its Claude Co-Work legal automation tool. It triggered what traders at Jeffries immediately christened the SaaS Apocalypse, erasing approximately $285 billion in market cap in a single trading day. The software companies, yeah. The general notion is that people aren't going to need that basically you're going to be able to write a prompt, and you'll be able to replace Adobe, Salesforce, ServiceNow, and that these companies have been fat and happy for 30 or 40 years. And these companies, so.
Starting point is 01:06:46 This one I agree with. Well, it's interesting because Salesforce is off 25%. Adobe is off 25 to 30% this year. Intuit is now down 34%. It's lost a third of its value year to date. Now, my view, and this is my prediction, is that these companies are much more deeply integrated into their corporate customers than people believe.
Starting point is 01:07:14 And even if you can write the code, really efficiently and quickly without their technical staff at these companies, their technical staff is only 10 to 20% of their employees. So they have really powerful UI. They have client service. They have client management. They have integrated billing. They are so deep into these companies that I think rumors of the death of these companies
Starting point is 01:07:37 has been vastly exaggerated. And as a multiple of free cash flow, these companies have never traded at a lower multiple. In addition, if you actually, Look at the... Opportunity is what you're saying. 100%. If you actually look at their revenues and their margins, there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that AI is hurting them, none whatsoever. So my prediction is that a basket of stocks, Adobe, Figma, ServiceNow, Salesforce, that they're going to have great returns from here on out. Especially if they integrate the AI features in a way that's helpful to people, right?
Starting point is 01:08:17 That's what it, I find them, like, what's interesting is, and I think we should talk about this Monday, this fight between Open. Open and I just hired a very significant person from Instagram, right, Charles Porch, who's really talented, talent relations. Figma did a deal with Claude, you know, Open AI got a hold of OpenClaw, right? It's really interesting what's happening. It starts to become what's actually useful and who takes advantage of the utility, correct? And some Adobe could do it, right? They could easily make their product 100 times better. Well, just looking at it operationally,
Starting point is 01:08:54 say they spend 10 or 20% on programming, and that's no longer a moat because AI can come in and write the code just as easily. These companies themselves could reduce their cost by 10 or 20%, shed that technical staff, quite frankly. And then pass on those savings to their end consumer while not giving up any EBITA or margin. In other words, 80% of their CAPEX goes into things that,
Starting point is 01:09:21 or their expenditures, goes into things that AI is not challenging. AI is challenging their technical mode, but AI is not challenging the fact that even my shitty small companies were all on Salesforce. The idea of someone coming in and saying, we'll give you 50%, we'll charge you 50% less. I'm like, are you kidding? I just spent the last fucking year training everyone how to use sales force.
Starting point is 01:09:44 We're all on it. And I get invited to cool Salesforce events and they give me research. And the nice attractive dude who used to play football at Cornell shows up and he's our Salesforce represent. These companies are much more deeply integrated into their client base, even if there's a widget on Anthropic that helps you build the code that they offer. It's just not that. There has to be an alternative stack is what you're talking about that matches. Well, it last year did that.
Starting point is 01:10:14 What it'll do, though, these companies are smart. What it'll do, first of up, I think these companies are really fat and happy, and there's a lot of expense cutting that they could all endure. So anyways, my prediction is the following. I think the sale or the decline on these companies, Adobe, Salesforce, ServiceNow, I think it's been overdone, and that a basket of the companies that have endured this SaaS apocalypse are going to do really well. I think it's a great investment, because if you look at their multiple on free cash flow,
Starting point is 01:10:43 they've never been lower, they've never been cheaper, and I see absolutely no evidence whatsoever that AI is reducing their top line or their bottom line. Reports of their death are greatly exaggerated. That's exactly right. All right. So anyway, that's a great one. I love that one.
Starting point is 01:10:58 I think you're right. I think you're 100% right. We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. That was useful for our listeners, Scott. Thank you. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show.
Starting point is 01:11:09 We're called 85551 Pivot But elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe this week on Profi Market, Scott spoke with Professor Aswa de Motrin, Professor of Finance at NYU's Stern School of Business to discuss why he's concerned that the market is ignoring catastrophic risks. Oh, no. After the Second World War, we put together an economic order centered around the U.S. and the U.S. dollar, and that's coming apart. And the market seems to essentially be blowing by saying, it doesn't matter. We're going to figure out a way. And just like we did, on COVID. And maybe that's part of what's going on here is people are saying markets are
Starting point is 01:11:45 resilient enough. They're going to find a way even through this dramatic change in how the global economy is run to find the other side. There seems to be too much of an acceptance that we'll figure a way through this without serious pain. That's what they're like, whistling past the grave. That's great. He's so smart. He's so smart. We obviously didn't talk about RFK Jr. and Kid Rock's exercise video. I don't know how to feel about that. We don't. I just don't know how to feel about that. I feel like if I watch that and then watch heated rivalry, I might just explode into an orgy of like something. They said the worst season of heated rivalry was those two. Oh, my God. Oh, God. Rage against the vaccine. Every time I see Kid Rock, I immediately think how much Sudafed can I buy to CVS.
Starting point is 01:12:31 There's so much good stuff on the internet about it. But remember, it's your taxpayer dollars at work. Oh, my God. That's, that's the workout. I'm still in a hot tub. That's all I have to say. That's the workout video for single dads who fight for child custody and then never see their kids. That's good. Thank you. Let's end on that. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week. Today's show was produced by Lera & A.Markis and Zoe Marcus and Taylor Griffin. Bernie Intert, engineered this episode. Manola Moreno edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Burroughs, Missaverio, and Dan Shalon, the shock Kroaz, Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform.
Starting point is 01:13:09 Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Box Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nirmag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Kara, have a great rest of the week.

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