Pivot - Biden on the Defensive, Trump's Threats, and Congressional Stock Trading

Episode Date: July 12, 2024

Kara and Scott discuss Microsoft and Apple ditching OpenAI board seats, the proposed ban on congressional stock trading, and Tesla's EV market share dipping below 50% for the first time. Then, calls for Biden to drop out of the race are mounting, but will the president just wait out the clock? Plus, what the GOP's new platform reveals about a Trump second term, including the implications for Big Tech. Finally, a listener question on deciding where to go for college. Follow us on Instagram and Threads at @pivotpodcastofficial. Follow us on TikTok at @pivotpodcast. Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or at nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for Pivot comes from Virgin Atlantic. Too many of us are so focused on getting to our destination that we forgot to embrace the journey. Well, when you fly Virgin Atlantic, that memorable trip begins right from the moment you check in. On board, you'll find everything you need to relax, recharge, or carry on working. Buy flat, private suites, fast Wi-Fi, hours of entertainment, delicious dining, and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. delicious dining and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. Check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip to London and beyond, and see for yourself how traveling for business can always be a pleasure.

Thumbtack presents the ins and outs of caring for your home. Out. Uncertainty. Self-doubt. Stressing about not knowing where to start. In. Plans and guides that make it easy to get home projects done. Out. Word art. Sorry, Live Laugh Lovers. In. Knowing what to do, when to do it, and who to hire. Start caring for your home with confidence. Download Thumbtack today. Germany, correct? Last night, I was an American living in London. Yeah. Watching Team England at a beer garden in Munich. And I had one of those moments where I thought- You're a European.

Well, just how much the world has changed, right? And I think about just not that long ago in terms of time, Germany was literally our, they were the enemy. And now they're one of our strongest allies. And then I went to the BMW Museum with my 13-year-old, as my dad does with his 13-year-old, after buying the new Jude Bellingham Adidas cleats. So we go to the BMW Museum. BMW owns many. Well, he has a Mini. Does he? He loves it. He loves his Mini.

They're great cars, or they're fun cars, I should say. And then I think you had one. I think I've driven in a Mini with Does he? He loves it. He loves his Mini. They're great cars. Or they're fun cars, I should say. And then I think you had one. I think I've driven in a Mini with you. You have. That was the one Louis has. Yeah. Oh, got it.

But I took a picture of this thing and I'll post it online. But the original Austin Mini Metro, it's essentially a lawnmower with doors. I mean, it is tiny. Yeah. And my mother and father met in Toronto. They immigrated first to Toronto. They met, got married, or so the story goes, and then they got pregnant. And after a brutal Toronto winter, they decided they wanted to move, and America was land of opportunity, and they finally got their visa or whatever it was. And they read in the Toronto Globe and Mail that the city with the

best weather in North America was San Diego. San Diego. So they decided to set out for San Diego. And they drove from Toronto to San Diego in an Austin mini metro when my mother was seven months pregnant with me. Yeah. That's exciting. Oh, you would have to drive more than them. You complained when you were in the mini, as I recall. So small, do you remember? No, but that thing was a Cadillac compared to the original mini Metro. Yeah. And I was just sitting there thinking, looking at this thing.

I mean, I was quote unquote a viable fetus. And if my mom had gone into premature labor or they decided to stay in Canada or whatever it is, so much of our success and our failure is just not our fault. It's just random. Life is frigging random. If there's, well, there's a lot of things I would impress on young people, but when things are going well for you, be humble. A lot of it isn't your fault. And also when things are going really poorly for you, forgive yourself.

But I was thinking so much of everything about my blessings and challenges is just not my fault. It has to do with a mini. It has to do with a mini. It has to do with a mini metro. Mini metro that got your little Scott fetus to California. What if it broke down in Oklahoma? Would I be an oil wildcatter now? Interesting. But think about it.

Think about it. They ended up in San Diego. So what was my life? University of California, Los Angeles, University of California, Berkeley, technology. All of these things were not my fault. I shall interject. My brother just sent me the passage that my grandfather came over on as a child from Italy on the Galea or whatever with his name. His name wasn't the name I thought it

was. It was Rosario. His name was Henry later, but his real name was Rosario, which is interesting. We were thinking about getting Italian passports, I'll be honest with you. Like, should we get them? That's the new rich thing. Rich people are getting second and third passports. Well, you know, it's kind of cool. I thought it would be cool for my mom. She's older.

It'll be kind of interesting. But we have to figure out if we can, because we're not clear. I think my brother said my great-grandfather renounced his allegiance to the king of Italy. So, we have to figure out what the plans are. Anyway, it's kind of interesting. Yeah, it is. It's random. My grandfather's family came over, and other family members didn't.

And here we are, right? They just, the same family. We went back to that village. It's called Felito in Italy. And there are a lot of people who look like us who are there, and it's a relatively poor town. And it's just randomness. Randomness. But what you just said is really interesting and profound in the sense that people are constantly asking me, what's the difference? What differences or distinctions really stand out in terms of the UK, in terms of culture and business from the US? And I think it all comes back to what you just said. And that is throughout the 20th century, tens of thousands, and then I

think a few hundred thousand people said in the UK, including my father when he was 17 in Glasgow, and my mother when she was, I think, 19 in London said, I'm going to get on a ship with almost no money and go to a place I have never been and try something new. That's right. And tens of millions decided not to and stay put. And that is the biggest difference between the culture in Britain and the U.S. Interestingly, speaking of Germany, I did an interview. A great lesbian moment happened. It was sort of like a sort of the... Was it on Cinemax?

I gotta stop that. I really gotta stop that. I interviewed Rachel Maddow yesterday about her... Oh, you're kidding! Yes, it was so good. That's huge, because I heard she doesn't like anybody. She doesn't, but she and I got along like peas and carrots. We had never spoken.

It's the weirdest lesbian non-meeting, because you'd think we would. We have the same haircut and everything. And in media... Did you guys cry for three hours, and hug and watch Riverdale and decide never to meet again? We did not. That's not... Isn't that what all this was? I have a Riverdale situation with you in a second. But very quickly, anyway, it was a great interview. You have to listen to Ultra. It's all about

the influence of Germany and propaganda on the U.S. and America first. I'm reading her book Prequel. Prequel is great, but the two podcasts are... I gotta tell you, I know she's a great broadcaster, but she's an excellent podcaster. I gotta... The story is so great. You would love it, Scott Galloway. I was to tell you, I know she's a great broadcaster, but she's an excellent podcaster. This story is so great. You would love it, Scott Galloway.

I was thinking of you the whole time. I'm listening to season two, and I'm listening to part of season one, but I'm going to go back and re-listen to season one. And it's all about Germans, America first, fascism. It takes place a lot in Germany, which is interesting. It takes place a lot in Germany, which is interesting. But speaking of Riverdale and conspiracy theories, I went to the showing of Fly Me to the Moon with Channing Tatum and Scarlett Johansson. They were not there, but the director, Greg Berlanti, was there. And he did Riverdale.

And I got to tell you, it's all about the moon landing and also a fake moon landing. Like, it's so funny. The reviewers have been really mixed, but I got to tell you, it was charming. I mean, Amanda Katz has a high level for popular movies, like doesn't like them. And she loved it. It was great. It was amazing. I think we're going to bring Greg on to talk about conspiracy theories and how he managed to thread the needle. And he did Riverdale.

He did Dawson's Creek. He did all kinds of shows. They're both underrated actors. Scarlett Johansson was really good. And her, she was really good in her. She was really good. She's amazing. And that movie was about divorce that was just so devastating and awful.

Yeah, I didn't watch that one. And also Channing Tatum was outstanding in that movie about the wrestler. Oh, yeah. With Stephen Carell played that kind of billionaire who ended up murdering his brother. Yes. Oh, I loved Channing. This is the most. He's very good.

If you want to feel good, watch that movie. It was wonderful. And there was a line in it. You know, it's about conspiracy theories. It's about lying. It's about... It has so much... I thought it had a lot of resonance,

as charming as it was. And one of the lines she says, it's a throwaway line, but it's not, where she says, the truth is the truth, even if nobody believes it. And the lie is a lie, even if everybody does. And it was a great line.

And I don't know how they made conspiracy theory of landing on the moon funny, and profound. It was really good. I would recommend it highly. But just back to Rachel Maddow for a second. Yeah. I think Rachel Maddow defines, you always hear this term, and she perfectly embodies it, be so talented they

can't ignore you. That's correct. Because I find Rachel Maddow, quite frankly, unlikable. I think she comes across as indignant. She's hysterical. I think her public persona is not very likable. I think there's still, not as much now, but when she started in media, I think there was tremendous homophobia.

I don't think there were a lot of people rooting for her. If you watch that MSNBC lineup for the last 10, 15 years, where they basically have progressives saying the same fucking thing over and over for 30 minutes or 60 minutes, and then they go on to the next person, there's everyone and there's Rachel Maddow. That's correct. Because you can watch her show and you're like, okay, she worked harder today. She did more fact-checking. She did more research. She came up with better economy of words. She came up with more apt, insightful analogies. She is so ridiculously fucking talented. I need you to listen to the podcast because you'll be like blown. She's such a wonk.

She's a history wonk. Her book on fascism, prequel, she's talking about 20s and 30s Germany. Not just that. It's insightful. You have good insights to today. We talked a lot about that. We talked about a lot of things.

She's very funny, actually. You know what I mean? I enjoyed interviewing her because she kind of was a little looser and she's very funny in a different way from how I am. But anyway, it was great. I also interviewed Gretchen Whitmer, too, by the way. I got this badass lady week, month, year. You know what I like is, I really appreciate that you don't sequester all the serious talent for your other podcasts. And up next week, the head of DEI from the National Forestry Service

on Pivot. I have brought people here. Oh, my God. Oh, come on. We get the literally off-off-Broadway-Wilkerson. I mean, okay, hold on. Gretchen Whitmer and Rachel Maddow,

we're going to get the environmental reporter from Mother Jones next week. You know what? I'm bringing Gretchen here next week. I'm going to put Gretch on here. I dare you. I literally dare you. I'm going to text her. Bring Governor Newsom on. Do you want Shapiro? I'll bring Shapiro. Who do you want? I would love to have Shapiro on. Pick one. Newsom. Newsom. All right. I will get him to do it. I will get him to come on Pivot. A hundred fucking percent. There you go. Anyway, we've got a lot to

get to today, including a growing number of calls for Biden to step aside. What a surprise. And Trump spelling out plans for his second term in the GOP's new platform. But first, the last time we talked, this is interesting, because you noted this. Apple and Microsoft are planning to participate in opening its board as non-observers. You said that was nonsense. They would have a lot of influence. But that's not the case anymore, Scott. I think you had influence. Microsoft has ditched its observer status on the board, and Apple will drop its plans to join amid antitrust scrutiny. So Kaplan's pressure is, this is how regulatory works, is it causes scrutiny that causes them to rethink things. But OpenAI's new plan will be to host regular stakeholder meetings to share progress. EU and UK regulators are looking at Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI, by the way, and so are others. So why didn't anyone see this but you and I? I got a call from someone in one of these agencies, and they said, with respect to observer versus board seat, what exactly are you talking about? And I told them this makes absolutely no difference. told them this is it makes absolutely no difference and then i said you've seen the map all roads around ai the most seminal influential technology probably since the handheld all lead back to the

same players in an increasingly narrow group of players and this person barely even responded said thank you and then hung up the phone yeah and i'm not i'm we can't take credit for this but he basically we did call it. This person basically said, just so you know, Scott, we're not stupid. Yeah. And the lobbyists and the FTC and the DOJ called the lobbyists or Apple or whoever and said, guys, we're not stupid. And even if you're trying to like create a sub brand called, you know, open AI. I mean, I had Reid Hoffman on my podcast yesterday, and I said, Reid,

you started a company. He started Inflection. You're on the board of Microsoft. Inflection just basically did an acqui-hire into OpenAI. Oh, good. I'm glad you asked him. I mean, isn't this not only going to the same players, but going to, I mean, Apple and Microsoft. What did he say? He goes, oh, Scott, he's such a lovable guy. He's like, oh, Scott. Oh, you can't help but like that guy. By the way, I think he's turned into the conscience of technology. I agree.

He is so thoughtful, so smart. He is so committed to democracy. And by the way, pays billions of taxes in California and Washington. Isn't peacing out and saying he needs to spend more time with his parents in low-tax states. Yeah, he does. He is the tech leader we want. I know. Did you see Elon attacked him, tried to link him with Epstein? Of course.

Anyways, I said to him straight up, I'm like, do you really think people are being fooled here? So what was his answer? Well, he said, well, I said, basically, wasn't inflection essentially acquired by opening? I was like, no, we just had a board meeting. And I'm like, boss, the hearts and lungs, all the key people, including the person who runs this, is now at Microsoft or at, they're going to announce a formal review here. It is so obvious. And them saying, just kidding, we're not going on these boards at the same time, that didn't happen accidentally. No, they're trying to stave that off. I think it's going to happen. Speaking of which, we should have Cantor on this show. Yeah, I'd like that. I will get Cantor and I will get Newsom for us. Okay. All right. Do you feel that? There you go. All right. Do you feel? All right. Speaking of which, a group of bipartisan centers have announced a proposed ban on congressional stock trading to prevent members from profiting.

Obviously, it still hasn't passed. From insider knowledge, the legislation would ban lawmakers from buying and selling stocks and other covered investments. Lawmakers would also be required to divest from all covered investments starting in 2027. Penalties for violations would either be the official's monthly salary or 10% of the assets in violation, whichever is higher. It's pretty substantive. The main example of this who would affect is Nancy Pelosi, whose husband, Paul, is a multimillionaire investor. Nancy opposed this type of legislation, obviously, until about 2022 when she did an about face. I don't know if this is ever going to pass. This is a complex topic, by the way, but it's very clear that something has to happen here. They do know stuff. There's all kinds of insider information spinning around the Congress of the CDC, with the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world, and all of a sudden find out that they're thinking about a mandate or massive multi-billion dollar subsidies of vaccines. And oh, wait, the next thing you know, her, and I don't know if this specifically happened, but it can happen, her husband decides to buy Moderna before the public

knows. Away from just assuming evil corruption, you can't help but create conflicts of interest, right? Like, even if you're assuming the very best from these people, it's too good, right? It's too hard not to say something to your spouse. It's too hard. When I was married to Megan at Google, it was difficult, and we never spoke about Google or anything she knew inside. But, you know, it was hard because I was covering some of that,

and it's just the opportunity to cheat is so broad and large and easy. Or not even specific companies. You think, okay, there's whatever. You get information on, there's this incredible new technology on keeping submarines quiet. And we just had these really smart people in from General Dynamics. And, oh, what do you know? It's a public company. They seem so smart. Hey, Paul, do you think maybe we should buy, do you know General Dynamics stock? I mean, this is ground zero.

This is corruption and all like that. This legislation doesn't go far enough because the way I read it is they can lose 10% of the value of the underlying stock. So you think it should be more? What would you just, you think they should disgorge the whole profit? That's what I love you, Stephen. Is there any way you can give me allocation in the IPO? IPOs are priced below the price they're traditionally going to trade out on the first trade. What is he going to say? I'm sorry, Speaker Pelosi, I can't get you any allocation. If she did that, that would get out. That's really a step too far, I suspect. They don't do that. It's not illegal.

out. That's really a step too far, I suspect. They don't do that. It's not illegal. No, but it's interesting because when Meghan went to the White House, she had to put everything in a blind trust, which was interesting. The White House, the disclosure stuff was so massive, it was crazy. I was sort of surprised. And we were, I think, divorced by that time, and they were even asking me, and I was like, well, I'm not married. You know what I mean? It was a really interesting... I remember thinking how massive the amount of information just the White House wanted, and the fact that the Congress doesn't do this

seems ridiculous. It gives people the sense that the game is rigged. Yeah. And either Nancy and Paul Pelosi are just genius investors, or her access to information, non-public material information that would be considered insider information for any private citizen have resulted in her ability to amass tens of millions of dollars. And quite frankly, that's part of the reason we don't have enough churn. People should do service and then they should leave. And make money. Yeah. And go make

money or pay them more in salaries so they're not tempted to engage in this type of corruption. Yeah, it's interesting how close the husband and wife should be because there's a lot of that. Like there's, let's get away from Nancy. There's also, there was a Republican senator who, it was a very clear, his wife, he sold his stuff after a briefing or whatever. You know, I think they should, just like other people with insider trading, they should be investigated in the same exact manner. And whatever regular people have to put up with in that case, they should put up with. It's very hard not to accuse them of cronyism and to feel like the game isn't rigged against

the little guy. When our elected officials can treat, they have more access to sensitive information than any individuals in the world. That's true. That's true. Interesting. Here's an interesting piece of fact. Tesla's market share of EVs in the U.S. has dropped below 50% for the first time. Oh, right again we are. That it was going to.

Tesla accounted for 49.7% of EV sales in the quarter, down from 59% last year. The company's global sales fell almost 5% in the second quarter. The U.S. electric vehicle sales overall grew by 11%, so it's a Tesla problem. It's not going to catch up again. It's only going down. Their market share is only everybody. I'm sorry to tell you, this is what happens when competition. Thank you, Tesla, for seeding the market, but what's going to happen to you is what happens to every other first product, except maybe the iPhone, I guess. But there's a lot of really good competitors. You're not offering products that are new and fresh, except for that stupid fucking Cybertruck,

which apparently he now wants to ride on Mars, but that's another story. So this is no surprise to us at all. Yeah, but to be fair, the market declines are more than compensated by the growth of the overall market and the firm. It took a real dive. It took a real dive there for a minute, correct? Yeah, it had gone down for a while. It was one of the worst reformers, but it has made up a ton of ground in the last 30 days. And why is that? Explain, Mr. Stock Guru, why that is. The market is a prediction machine, and it attempts to discern a ton of signals around how the company is doing. And then basically, the value of a stock is based on its current cash flow and then the present value of its growth opportunity. And so the market is trying to guess what that growth opportunity is.

And it sets a series of expectations, including analysts. And the company itself will say, we expect to deliver this many cars at this margin. And the last time, a few weeks ago, they announced what they had actually done, they had exceeded those expectations. Yeah, they weren't as bad. Yes, that's right. But the company, I mean, a lot of people are saying that product's getting tired, they have some charger problems, maintenance problems. But the reality is the company has blown away expectations and the stock has been on an absolute tear the last 30 or 60 days. Yeah, in May, the low was 142, which was quite low.

And now it's at 265. That is a tear. You know, people are now baking that in that they're going to be. But I'm talking about their global market share. Even as the area is growing, Tesla is going to get smaller and smaller because there's going to be more and more competitors. Well, it's a percentage. Yes. It would be impossible in that market to maintain 50% share. And the place that is really just the EV market is just incredible is China. And they expect that a third of the cars on the road by 2030, which isn't that far away, will be EVs. I mean, the reason why Tesla will probably continue to perform is it's really a branding thing.

China makes a better EV than Tesla or the U.S. on a value basis. But Tesla is a global brand that means I'm concerned about the environment and I'm rich, which is very sexy. And the strangest thing about China I've always found is that it's the second largest economy. Name one global brand that's come out of China. Mm-hmm. Yeah. I mean, there's global brands that have come out of France, Italy, amazing brands, Japan, South Korea, Samsung. There's amazing brands that come out of every single market,

but the second largest economy in the world, for the life of it, has not been able to make global brands. Well, the only thing is I would say is this investor, Bill Gross, not the tech Bill Gross. The debt guy. The debt guy, right. He says Tesla is acting like a meme stock, sagging fundamentals, straight up price action. But then there seems to be a new meme stock every day now, more pump and dump. So buyer beware is what I would say.

I mean, it's just it trades at a P.E. of 68. And I think most car companies trade at like single digit P.E.s. Yeah, Elon still can keep these things up. OK, let's get to our first big story. President Biden made it clear that he's not ending his campaign, but the pressure on him to drop out continues. Speaking of Nancy Pelosi, man, she's one deft politician, I'll tell you that. She opened that door up again as it was subsiding, was closing, giving Biden more breathing room. And she said the time is running short for Biden to make a

decision during an appearance on Morning Joe, which is what the show Joe Biden watches. He's like, we're waiting for him to make a decision, even though he's made a decision. It was just, it was, she carefully calibrated that. And it was essentially what I understand is giving the green light to people to come out after NATO is over to oppose Biden and the Democratic Party. Democratic Senator Pete Welch became the first senator to call for Biden to exit the race in a Washington post-op event. I thought Bennett was before him, no? No, Bennett is being in the middle. He was on Caitlin Collins. He didn't quite say it. I'd like him to make a decision is what Bennett's saying.

Didn't he also say that if he stays in the race, we lose the Senate and the House? He did, but he will not tell them. It's so funny to watch them pretzel themselves. Yes, he said we're going to lose, but then he didn't follow it with, so he should leave. It's the silent, so he should leave. But this guy said he should leave. Now, speaking of the most famous person who said he should leave, George Clooney, who hosted a huge fundraiser for Biden last month, is asking the president to end his candidacy in a New York Times essay writing, one battle he cannot win is a fight against time. He sounds like Scott Galloway. You know, Father Time has no time for you. He wrote this piece in the New York Times, which I thought was very good. And I think the most devastating part of it is not so much that he's a big fundraiser

for the Democrats. A lot of people agree with him. Michael Douglas, who is a big Biden person who raised a lot of money, said George has a valid point. Everyone is sort of scooching up to the line that Nancy Pelosi has allowed them to do, essentially. Apparently, Jeff Katzenberg tried to get him not to do it. Obama and he talked, but Obama didn't ask him not to do it, which is interesting. In any case, it was a huge splash. You know, it's two weeks since the debate and these calls have not gone away. So, by the way, we're recording this ahead of Biden giving a news conference at the NATO summit on Thursday evening. We'll come back if he falls down and breaks a hip.

The big boy press conference, what they're calling it. By the way, that's the worst branding in history. That's the White House. I thought it was a joke. Yeah, no, it's the White House calling it the big boy presser, big boy conference. It was Karine Jean-Pierre. I was like, Karine, don't say big boy. Yeah, that was terrible. Don't say big boy. Big boy sounds like you're teaching him how to pee, you know? Anyway, he's also set to sit down with NBC's Lester Hulse on Monday for an interview. NBC is also reporting that the Biden campaign has suffered a major slowdown in donations, so the campaign has pushed back on that. Also, George Stephanopoulos caught on the street walking around one day after the interview

was like, he can't make it four more years. He shouldn't have said that probably, but he did. And it got caught on tape. I mean, Scott, what do you think? What do you think? It's unfortunately tragically comic, but when all these Democrats keep asking Biden, urging him to make a decision, he makes it, and then they ask him to make it again. Not that decision.

No. Is there any way you could go back and think some more and come back with a different decision? That's funny. I think so much of it is core to our flaw as a party, and that is the wonderful thing about Democrats is they're incredibly optimistic and they have this vision of what the world should be like. They want a better tomorrow. Progressive ideology or woke or whatever you want to call it, it's rooted in aspiration and the hopeful things of the right to make your own decisions, to be happy.

With a side order of shaming people. Yeah. To embrace who you are. But then it's like, okay, we've decided biology should adopt our views on ageism. And biology has said, hold my beer. And if it was anything, if it was a sex scandal, a crime scandal, a huge, oh, that would boost his ratings, unfortunately. If it was anything, a failed invasion, they could probably handle anything. But here's the thing. The only thing we know about this problem is that every minute of every hour of every day, this problem

gets worse. And what they're not focusing on, and I thought was the most damaging thing in my view, was in the Stephanopoulos interview, he refused to agree to take a cognitive test. Right. Although Gretchen Whitmer yesterday in another interview was like, couldn't hurt if he did it. Like, they're all like stepping around old man Biden. But Cara, if you're running for president and you're going to literally have your finger on the button and you're the front line against a global trend towards extremism and anti-Semitism and gender apartheid. And there are real serious doubts amongst your internal, your inner circle about your cognitive ability. And you're so confident that this isn't a problem. Why on earth would you or your advisors not say,

of course, end this, take the cognitive test. But here's the thing. The people who know him and the people who are around him and him have said, don't get near a fucking cognitive test. That's correct. I don't think I'd pass a cognitive test, honestly. But let's talk about that. He could do two things. Run out the clock. That's what he seems to be doing and keeping making the decision. They don't like this decision. They never have to come out and say it versus them walking around it sideways, which is, tell your friend Michael Bennett that. Like, come on, Michael. Yeah, but come on.

To be clear, Senator Bennett, think of the situation here. This is an absolutely no-win situation because if you come out against him and he wins, your persona non grata in the White House. Maybe. Maybe he's too old to do anything about it. No, no, no. Your persona non grata, the Democratic Party, you were that turncoat. If you say nothing, right, and he wins or he loses, you're fine.

It's nothing but downside other than fidelity to the country right now. And Trump. So what they're all doing is they're all trying to have their cake and eat it too. I would urge the president to speak to some outsiders and experts. Jesus Christ, grow a fucking pear. I'll tell you, the Emanuel brothers, Zeke Emanuel especially too,

his brother's been very loud mouthed, but Zeke Emanuel is making a cognitive case, which is interesting. He's a doctor, obviously, very famous doctor and very close to Biden. What did he say? I'm not familiar with that. Oh, he did a whole thing saying he needs to step down. He needs to fucking step down.

So, interestingly, Biden has gone on the offense, defiant in interviews, lashing out what he calls the elites, the Democratic Party. I don't like this Biden. I don't like angry old man Biden. Honestly, anyone who's dealt with an elderly parent, like it sucks to go up against someone who wants to do things that can't anymore. It is the worst feeling. It's the worst thing to do. They're terrible to you. And I'm not talking about anyone specifically, but yes, I am. But I got to tell you, I don't like this, how they're going on the offense, including big boy interview. It's just astonishing how badly I think they're messaging this.

Talk about it from a marketing point of view. From a marketing point of view, there would be, or brand strategy point of view, there's two major messages or two major pieces of advice that you want to give the Biden campaign right now. And one they're doing and the other they need to do if they survive this. The first is, it's actually quite smart to position that the people calling for him to step down are all these white elites. That is smart because he can say, I'm for you. I'm for non-whites. I'm fighting every day for regular people. I have continued to

win for you. I will continue to fight for you. And despite the fact that a bunch of blowhard podcasters and rich white people are saying I should stand down the cultural elites, I'm going to continue to fight for you. I think that is a smart positioning. But the voters are way ahead of Washington on this issue a long time ago, but go ahead. But that's the right to position, if you will, us as these elites trying to tell other voters what to do and him what to do. That is a good positioning. Now, the biggest and most obvious and strongest piece of advice I would give to Biden campaign, should they survive this? And I don't think they will, but should they? They can no longer ever say Biden or White House. They can no longer ever say Biden or White House.

Any communication, any messages, any labels has to come from one brand only. Team Biden. Yeah. Team Biden. This is not Joseph Biden. This is Team Biden. So his health care aides. He's got to position it as, I have assembled the most thoughtful, talented group of people.

I'm not firing them. They're not going to end up in jail. I'm not going to call them dumb as a rock. They're not going to start talking about conspiracy theory and end up in prison. I have the presidency is an ability to have instincts, slow thinking. Let's be honest, folks. I'm always quick on my feet. But I have assembled the most talented team in the world.

Every communication should come from Team Biden. Having said that, I still, Cara, I still don't think, I mean, I'm biased. I'm too close to it. I'm curious what you think. But I think the pressure is only mounting despite all the attempts to shame everybody back into sticking their head up their ass. I don't think it's working. Well, one of the things, you know, I was just thinking this morning, of course, we're waiting for this press conference, but it's like turning on whether he can do a press

conference. Like that's where like, let's see if he does the press conference. Well, are you kidding me? Like that to me is like, that's like the bar is what's lower than the ground. It's like, and you're losing and you're losing. You keep losing to this felon. Like, what? What's really interesting to me, let me actually read the Zeke Emanuel thing, because I think you'll really like it. For those 75 years or older, it's time to retire from public office. Dare I say, I agree with my brother Ari. We need a mandatory age limit for all federal elected officials and all federal judges. No one should serve past 75. Sure, some people will be capable of serving past 75, but just as FBI agents, pilots, foreign service officers, and board members at some corporations have a mandatory retirement

ages, so should federal elected officials and judges. In a country of 330 million, there are certainly plenty of competent people for these jobs. And practically speaking, a mandatory retirement age is administratively easy and fair. With an age minimum in the Constitution, the framers should have added an age maximum as well. Let's fix that deficiency. Perfect. We need age gating on the lower end and the higher end. Yeah. We need more ageism in this country.

Yeah. Right. Right. So, you know, I just, it's just, I think it's going to mount. It's going to mount. He's going to fall and break a hip at some point. I'm in Germany watching football. Like, what is your, you're in D.C. What is your sense of the momentum? Everyone is sort of like trying to look away. I sent you that Desi Lydic thing from

Daily Show. It's like someone shit the bed at Gwyneth Paltrow's house. Everyone is pretending. They're not pretending. They're saying he should leave, but then no one will say it, right? None of the big dogs will say it. They'll say it to you, so to voce. It's a lot of, what the fuck are we going to do, right? That's what it is. What the fuck are we going to do? And then they get pushed back by people like, well, what's the plan?

There's a lot of, I'll tell you, the never Trumpers are very much on Biden's side saying this is a big mistake. Like Mike Madrid, who I respect a lot, or Rick Wilson, we both know, Stuart Stevens, all the Republicans are like, don't. At the same time, there's been a lot of reporting that the Trump people really want Biden to be his foe. So it's interesting. I need to talk to them because I like Mike Madrid, but he's doing too much like shaming, like, oh, you're a bedwetter. I don't like that. Like, have a good argument. And there are a lot of people who I think are smarter, like, well, what are we going to do? I know in a room they have figured out what to do, right? There is things to do.

And I think the question is whether it's worth the risk or not. But at this point, it's just not going to go away. And everyone's waiting for him to fall. That's really, that's a really bad situation. And no matter, it's not the media's fault. It is not, you know, you and I get slathered all the time by people. And, you know, oddly enough, George Hahn just got slathered, like, by saying, just, he's old. That's all.

By the, sort of, the blue MAGA, which is what they are. And I think it's just not going to, it's not going to end well. Like, right? It's just, as you can imagine, it's like, age is age. As George Clooney says, age is age. And they can attack George Clooney all they want, you know, or Jon Stewart or anyone else. And I get it's all white guys. But boy, if white guys are saying it, you know, I do get that, you know, the Congressional Black Caucus is backing Biden, the Hispanic Caucus is backing him. But then some of the members don't like it. If you're not 100% behind him at this point, it means you want him to step down. That's the way I see it. Yeah. What about the other decision? Nancy Pelosi, let me tell you, she can serve until she's 103. She's one clever. What she did is, since she's not running the place, and she was so good at

running the fucking place, she let the members think about it and cogitate, but once it had to happen, she brought down the hammer. What she's doing here is she's taking the pressure off Hakeem Jeffries by being the one to raise this, right? So she's like, I'll go out there and take the fire, right? But she did it in such a deft way. We're behind him if he makes a decision. We're waiting for his decision, and it's like, he made it. Can you go decide on that more, please? It was so clever. And I know she probably tested it with all of them.

They all agreed on it, which I'd love to be in that meeting where they all decide how to do it, like as a group. That would have been a hysterical meeting. Schumer's apparently, even though he goes, I'm with Joe, is apparently like, maybe not so much with Joe. And he's a little'm with Joe, is apparently like maybe not so much with Joe. And he's a little less deaf than she is. Yeah. But also, don't you think these people are also worried about people starting to question their own age? Yes, they will be. Schumer's 73, Pelosi's 83. At some point, do people say, now do Pelosi? Yes, except that literally I wouldn't turn my back on that lady. But I agree. Yes. A comment, then a question to you. Okay. I had Anthony turn my back on that lady. But I agree. Yes. that scares the shit out of Trump because he's such a narcissist and he's so focused on appearances.

His nightmare is Newsom. That's the call of the message he doesn't want to get is that the Democrats have chosen Newsom because he said he's very luxist and he's really worried about how he would appear standing next to Governor Newsom. He'd look like a jab at the fucking hut. That's what he'd look like. My question to you is, who is, and maybe it's they, and it's not one person, it's they, but who could march up to the White House or go public with, you've got to step down and actually move the needle right now?

We know it's not George Clooney. We know it's not Michael Bennett. Who could do it? Pelosi and Schumer went up there and said, just like the Barry Goldwater thing, saying they're not voting for anyone. That includes me. We're going to say something public. That could be one thing. I think Obama and Clinton, Bush, all together, something like that. Obviously, Taylor Swift.

I hadn't thought about that. That's where we are. That's where we are. Well, obviously. I mean, come on. Like, whatever. Oh, my God. You know, I think probably- Not in that order. Not in that order. The presidents. The presidents or Nancy and that person. You know, I think one of the problems that seems to be happening is Hunter Biden's in there, right? Pushing him. That's worrisome. I've heard that from a lot of people. Like, you know, I think you don't need family members with their own self-interest in there. And they'll, you know, it's interesting given I'm an elderly parent, my mom, and we're all together on how we want to keep her safe, right? And even though we get slings and arrows over it from her. And I think it's really, we're doing it because we love her and it's in our interest. And in this case, it seems flipped, right? They're just like putting up with it or pressuring him in a weird way. I don't know. I'd have to get in there. I mean, they're very proud people. And some of the Biden people I know were, Kara, you've got to, you know, support our president. And I go, I can't.

I just can't. I'm sorry. Like, oof. I mean, again, I think your four quadrants are correct. If he leaves and they win, he's the biggest hero in history. And if he leaves and they don't win, he's okay. If he stays and loses, it's the end of his legacy. And he has a wonderful legacy. So anyway, I think that's the story right now, at least in Washington. All right, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about the GOP's new platform, what it means for tech, and take a listener mail question on choosing colleges.

Ooh, that's a good one. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night. And honestly, that's not what it is anymore. That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter. These days, online scams look more like crime syndicates than individual con artists.

And they're making bank. Last year, scammers made off with more than $10 billion. It's mind-blowing to see the kind of infrastructure that's been built to facilitate scamming at scale. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of scam centers all around the world. These are very savvy business people. These are organized criminal rings. And so once we understand the magnitude of this problem, we can protect people better. One challenge that fraud fighters like Ian face is that scam victims

sometimes feel too ashamed to discuss what happened to them. But Ian says one of our best defenses is simple. We need to talk to each other. We need to have those awkward conversations around what do you do if you have text messages you don't recognize? What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive? Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam, but he fell victim and we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to work together to protect each other. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust.

As a Fizz member, you can look forward to free data, big savings on plans, and having your unused data roll over to the following month. Every month at Fizz, you always get more for your money. Terms and conditions for our different programs and policies apply. Details at Fizz.ca. Scott, we're back with our second big story. The Republican National Convention gets underway next week. The party approved its 2024 platform on Monday, giving us a glimpse at what a Trump second term might look like.

It sounds awful in every single way. The platform reads like a Trump rally speech and features a list of 20 promises, including stop the migrant invasion, which we're still waiting for that caravan, cancel the electric vehicle mandate, and prevent World War III. Okay. The language on abortion and same-sex marriage has also been pared down and softened. Gays can stay married, apparently, according to Donald Trump. Thanks, Donald, you fucking asshole. married, apparently, according to Donald Trump. Thanks, Donald, you fucking asshole. You know, he has had a rally recently where he was as loony as a, you know, it's all baked in,

but he was loonier than ever. Still talking about sharks and Hannibal Lecter and all kinds of this and that. Speaking of cognitive disabilities. And I know people say we should say more about it. He is crazy, everybody. We have said it over and over again, and he's vicious. He's crazy and vicious and corrupt and a criminal. So there. I hope that's enough. What do you think about this vision that they've laid out? They're certainly trying to soften. We've been hearing a lot, thankfully, about Project 2025. In recent weeks, a proposal for massive overhaul of the federal government.

Getting rid of NOAA is on their list. The project, backed by Trump allies, very close Trump allies, includes an expansion of executive powers, disbanding the Department of Education, shredding climate protections. Trump has recently distanced himself from the plan, claiming he know nothing about it, which is nonsense. He also was like, I wish them good luck. It was very similar to a statement he gave about Jelaine Maxwell of the famous Epstein saying, I don't really know her, but I wish her good luck. And of course, there's 90 pictures of him with her. So what do you think about this? So as frightening as Biden's performance has been, we don't want to talk about this, but Trump has actually been very on message. He's been much more disciplined this time. And he realizes that he's basically said, if we just pivot a little bit to the metal and we're not as terribly frightening, what's going on here is we've seen before

and that's Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett in their Senate testimony confirmation hearings pretending to be reasonable. And then once they're on the court, they decide to overturn Roe v. Wade, which they said under oath in front of the Senate was established precedent. My sense is Trump is very on message. I forget the name of the woman. Scaramucci says-

Susie Wiles. He said she's the most powerful woman in Washington right now. But think about it. He's gone totally quiet around the debate. He's softening the stuff around bodily autonomy. But be clear, folks. It's now one in five women have to leave their state to terminate a pregnancy. It's going to go to two in five, three in five, and maybe more. Yeah. And this whole 20, whatever they're calling it, 20, what are they calling it?

2025, Project 2025. I mean, you read through it. Oh, it's a handmaiden's tale booklet. Okay. Be clear, folks. The thing about these things is we make the mistake of believing they're so fucking crazy they could never happen. No, they can happen.

It can happen. So from a messaging standpoint, Trump's trying to distance himself. But it is a looking glass into what some of the most powerful people who will have the greatest audience, voice, and sway on the White House are thinking. Yeah, absolutely. And as I mentioned, Trump has softened the GOP's stance on abortion and marriage equality. New platforms does not reference a national abortion ban. The first time it's been omitted in 40 years of these platforms. Leave it to the states, which is

almost even worse. There's no longer a reference to traditional marriage as between one man and one woman. That's been in there for a long time. Bad marketing for them. You're right. He's softening the stance. Oh, I'm reasonable, but he is not reasonable, people. Let us be absolutely fucking clear. He will also have people in there like Stephen Miller who are absolutely, they want to build giant camps and deport people. They want to put millions of people under arrest for existing, essentially. There's also major implications for tech in all of this. The plan calls for fewer restrictions on cryptocurrency, all their pals in that, repealing Biden's executive order on AI, which is quite a good one, actually, and bolstering commercial space exploration. This must be the Elon Musk must

have called them and put them in. It signals a laissez-faire, if not outright cozy approach to emerging sectors, as the Washington Post put it. That's all Elon Musk. So, you know, just FYI. Tech regulation is already a struggle. There won't be any tech regulation. And government investment in commercial space exploration, of course, be a boon for Musk. And also Jeff Bezos, by the way.

Now, it's interesting that some tech leaders are playing nice, some aren't, like Reid Hoffman is. And what was really frightening, and I know you don't like Mark Zuckerberg, but Trump threatened him in a way that sounded like a tin horn dictator. He said, posted on True Social, the election fraudsters will be imprisoned if he gets elected in November, and he name-checked Zuckerberg. Mark Zuckerberg does a lot of things, but he's not an election fraudster. And the fact that he's threatened imprisonment over his stupid election denial lies is really...

I had to defend Mark. Look, if we want to put Mark in prison, let's bring him to trial, prove the case, do the things, like what a legal democracy does. That's different than what Trump did here, which is heinous, absolutely heinous. There's a clear, thick, indelible line between a democracy and fascism. And one of those lines, that there's sharp relief between an autocracy and a democracy, is that we have decided that

when people are elected to power, they can't use federal agencies to go after their political enemies. And when you start threatening to put your political enemies in prison, and what he referenced was that Zuckerberg donated $400 million to nonprofits helping election offices with mail-in voting, getting falsely accused of violating campaign finance laws. By the way, he was cleared by the Federal Election Commission. This is stepping over that line into fascism. And it's not about Mark Zuckerberg. It's about, President Biden has never said, I hate Elon Musk. I think he's a threat to democracy. I hate what he's doing in Ukraine.

I'm sicking my DOJ on him. When you directly say, I'm going to try and put someone in prison if I'm elected, this is what... And what you're dealing with here is what happens in these societies. And unfortunately, we're so entitled and we've enjoyed so many freedoms of which we're not in touch with the sacrifice and the commitment and the expense to maintain these freedoms that we don't realize that when you're living in an autocracy, everyone goes quiet. Because when you come out against Trump and say, this is a fascist, this is a misogynist, this is a convicted felon, you risk something. And so people stop engaging in a democracy which includes open, honest debate. The downside to being open and honest around what you think of Trump is much greater than the downside to being open and honest about what you think about the true Democrat because he's not going to pursue you as a political enemy using the full power of the federal government. using the full power of the federal government. So just threatening to weaponize our agencies in the government, that should be disqualifying. And everyone uses the word disqualifying.

But this is what it's like to live in Iran or Russia, where people do the math and go, I don't even want to have an open conversation. I'm going to tell my children and my friends, never speak out against this person because the downside is greater. Whereas there's someone who's a Democrat, oh yeah, speak out against them because there's no downside to speaking your mind. This is what it's like to live in an autocracy. I mean, I want to be clear, I'm not scared, but the thought has crossed my mind. If Donald Trump is elected, it's not the threat of some sort of government regulation or something. I'm not saying we'd be put in jail, but do they pass legislation that is damaging to

you and your family? This isn't, this is how we move away from a democracy. Can I just tell you what just happened in the Senate Judiciary Committee, right, yesterday? That idiot Ben Shapiro, who I said is a very good entrepreneur, Ben. So just like, I'm sorry your dick is so small that you have to constantly attack me. But when a conservative, he testified, when a conservative competitor to legacy media arises, members of the legacy media and their political allies rush to paint such competitors as dangerous. as members of the legacy media and their political allies rushed to paint such competitors as dangerous. The commentator Kara Swisher on the New York Times, for example, told the head of YouTube that my videos on Daily Wire were a gateway drug that would lead children, including

her teenage son, to watch neo-Nazi content, never mind the fact that I'm an Orthodox Jew. Gee, Ben, you have to stop lying about this. This is like, and he's, of course, you know, whatever, just these conservatives, they're just such liars, and they create real problems. Because I, and now I'm getting pilloried on Twitter because I didn't do that. I said, when he asked him to me to watch Ben Shapiro, I said, absolutely, I think he's an idiot, but you decide for yourself, which I think is the correct answer to any child. You know, Alex listened, and then he didn't like him. That was it. That was the entire thing. And what I said that I found more troubling was not so much the idiotic Ben Shapiro content, which I continue to

think is idiotic. I know you don't as much as I do. But what I said is what happened was it wasn't Ben Shapiro's fault, but the algorithm led to stuff that was really troubling. When you watched him, it kept going down a rabbit hole. It was not Ben Shapiro's gateway drug fault, Ben. I'm so sorry. You're not a drug dealer. What it was was YouTube. I was complaining about the YouTube algorithm that pushed people to worse and worse and worse things, which has been studied and studied and studied again and again.

And that was what I was talking about. But this is the kind of like twisting, as I was referencing that line from Fly Me to the Moon, which is, Ben, a lie is a lie even if you believe it. I'm sorry. That is a lie that you're telling to people. You need to stop. You can call me if you like and listen again. And my whole point was that the YouTube algorithm was the problem, not you, although I personally think you're a problem. Anyway, stop. Go ahead. I'm sorry. I didn't know that was happening on Twitter. This is one of those things I'm woefully ignorant about.

No, it happened in the Senate Judiciary Committee, whatever. But first off, he's using you as a dog whistle because he knows a lot of conservatives have issues with you and your viewpoint. But a larger point I think that people should draw from this, we make a lot of personal attacks, and that sounds terrible, but we say disparaging things about individuals' personal character and behavior. That is a personal attack.

And I struggle with it because it's not something you want to be known for, and oftentimes people aren't able to defend themselves. So I have a code around this, and when I tell young men their code around a personal attack or the code I follow is the following. I will only ever reference someone's individual character and behavior in a negative light on one condition. They have to be much more powerful than me.

Because I have power now. And every day, in large part because of this podcast and you and some of the exposure, I get more and more power and more influence. And so as a general rule, a guy like Ben Shapiro to throw you up as like red meat and mischaracterize your words is not only wrong, but even more so. Ben is actually, because of his listenership, is very powerful. Correct. And he should not be personally attacking anyone that is not. He can attack Biden. I get it. He's a commentator. He can attack George Soros. I think George Soros is more powerful than Ben Shapiro, whatever. He can attack, you know, whatever, Macron or whatever it is he, and I don't like his political viewpoints, fine. But as a general rule, and this is going to sound sexist, as a man, men are supposed to be protectors. We're

supposed to be in service. We're supposed to be, in my view, thinking about how we, before we even judge, before we even evaluate, we move to protection. That is our go-to move is protection. And if you're in a position like Ben Shapiro, you do not make personal attacks against anyone that is adjacent or below you. It's not a personal attack. He's just mischaracterized. He's not calling me like a cunt. But that's a personal attack. Look what's, I can only imagine what's happening to you on Twitter now.

Well, it's just, it's just, it's not, I get that. But that's the people who follow him also. Let me just say, let me give an invitation to Ben Shapiro. Come and meet me and my son. We will explain to you what happened. And he will tell you, I told him to listen to you. He didn't like you all by yourself. And maybe he likes you now. I don't know. I don't know what he listens to. He's over 18. He can do whatever he wants.

You know what the best thing that happened to Ben Shapiro is? What? Candace Owens. You want to talk about someone who's just fucking batshit crazy? Well, he handled that well. I have to say he did. He handled it well. He shut her down. And now she's accusing, she's trying to keep I have to say. He did. He handled it well. He shut her down. And now she's accusing. She's trying to keep this conspiracy theory alive.

Have you heard this thing about Macron's wife? No, what? Forget it then. I don't want to bring it up. What is it? Oh, she's a beard? That one? No, that she's actually a man.

And I mean, okay. I actually, I met Candace Owens at our conference. She was very pleasant. I actually really enjoyed meeting her. I did not. I mean, I met Candace Owens at our conference. She was very pleasant. I actually really enjoyed meeting her. I did not. I mean, okay. Well, I like on a certain level, I really want to like a woman of color who doesn't immediately fit into the stereotype of what her political view should be.

I agree. She's also, I got to give it to her. She's fearless. She's compelling. She's decided to run with this conspiracy theory that is nothing but the following, conspiratorial clickbait that is anti-trans. But she does that all the time, Scott. That's the only thing I would say to you. As pleasant as she may be. But see, when Ben Shapiro, but that's my point. Ben Shapiro then says, she's an anti-Semite and a weirdo. I want nothing to do

with her. And she's removed. He comes across as reasonable. Okay. Let's listen to a listener question. It's a good one. This question comes from Sage. Oh, I love that name. Let's listen. Hi, Karen, Scott. My name is Sage and I've been listening to y'all since eighth grade. Kara, you really hooked me with Sway.

I just wanted to say, excitingly, I'm going into my senior year. and listening to y'all since eighth grade. Kara, you really hooked me with sway. I just wanted to say, excitingly, I'm going into my senior year and you guys have been such a big influence on me. I love hearing your perspectives. You constantly challenge me to think about issues to a deeper degree. Do you guys have any advice on how to decide what colleges to apply to

and where I should go? I hear you guys talking about how Alice made this choice and I would like some similar advice. Also, please share any life advice you guys have for a senior in high school, what I should be focusing on and how do I position myself to have a fulfilled and successful life. Thank you guys so much. You're a huge inspiration. Oh my God, Scott, we're having influence on the young people. So nice, isn't it? That's literally, other than Team England winning last night, that's the second best thing that's happened to me all week.

Oh, my God. It's so lovely. It's really lovely. We do have a lot of people, young people, who come up to me a lot and talk about this. And they like being challenged, and they like hearing disagreement done well. In any case, gosh, Sage, what a big, oh, wow. I think you're going to be fine, Sage. You're going to be fine. I think we should be asking you for advice. Just be you. That's it. That's all I got to say. No, actually, let me tell you, my senior, Jeffrey Swisher just put up a picture of me

in my senior year with a terrible haircut. I saw that. You little, you little sexy minx. He's not my brother anymore. I'm turning him into a daughter still. You're a little, I'll have sex with the guys, but make out with the ladies. That's correct. Anyway. It's funny. Now that you're 60, you look 40. When you were 18, you look 40. You've just been 40 your whole life.

That is correct. I think I must have been 16 then because I went to college at 17. You're 16 in that photo? 16. It's got to be. You look like next up on Rachel Maddow, journalist character. You look 40.

You look exactly the same. Anyway, let's get back to Sage. Sage, let me just tell you something. I did not get into any of the colleges I applied to. I didn't get into Stanford. I didn't get into Brown. I didn't get into Yale. I didn't get waitlisted at Princeton.

I didn't get into anything. And Georgetown was my backup school at the time. It was a backup school. And I regretfully, I did. I had four very good years there. But let me say, you're not going to get everything you want, right? So you never know. As we talked at the beginning of this podcast, life is random. And what you manage to get into, you know, sometimes is a good thing. It was great that I came to Washington and worked in Congress and I worked for the Washington Post. So everything follows like a river to the next thing. And so I just I wouldn't think too hard or worry too much. Just figure out where you want to the place you want to live. Right. You want to be in a warm climate. The issue Alex had with Michigan was the cold weather was one of his things. But then he decided he really, really liked Michigan a lot.

So I think you just decide where you want to live or what has a really good program for the things you're in. And also, you don't know your major is going to be your major. Like, you may shift. Like, I thought I was going in the CIA. I thought I was going into law or the military. And I did an opposite thing. So be open to that. And then don't, like like worry about it too much.

Honestly, poor college seniors, people. I have a friend who I just ran into as an incoming senior or rising senior. And I did not purposely ask them about college because they get asked that a lot. So just be nice to people that ask you about it. But I get that it's really too much, but it's not, this is just one way station

along in a very long life, right? Don't worry, just enjoy yourself. But it's not, this is just one way station along in a very long life, right? Don't worry. Just enjoy yourself. Senior year should be fun, I would think. Yeah, just picking up on what you said, it's very hard. I wish I'd learned this when I was much younger, but nothing's ever as good or as bad as it seems. And try not to fall in love with any one school. Apply to a bunch. I only had one option because I needed to live at home because I didn't have any money. So I applied to UCLA and I didn't get in and I was just devastated. And my mom said, is there anything we can do? And I'm like, of course, there's nothing we can do. I've been rejected. And she found out there was an appeal process and I appealed and I got in. And that's

the reason I'm here with you. But apply to a bunch of schools and then be a consumer. Keep in mind, once you get into hopefully more than one school, they need you more than you need them and start playing them off against each other for financial aid. Because keep in mind, despite our cardigans and nobility in this veneer that we're public servants, we are fucking whores that will attempt to soak you and your family for all your disposable income. So do this, get into two or three schools and then call all of them and say, what financial aid can you offer me and play them off against each other. That's my advice around college too. In terms of a core skill that you wanna develop while you have some extra time, the one skill that will endure,

it's not computer science, it's not civics, it's not math, it's not, it's the following, it's storytelling. So if you have the opportunity to journal, to write for your school newspaper, to give presentations, to learn PowerPoint, whatever it is, try and take some time to really, if you can, develop your communication skills because that storytelling is the core competence that will endure the test of time. And then on a personal note, the thing I wish I had done, you know, there's all these things on TikTok saying that 90% of the time you will spend with your kids is from zero to 18. And, you know, so when your kid's 17 or 18, and I think about this a lot, I'm like, 80% of the time I have with my 16-year-old

is gone. It's probably more like 90% because it's already spent. And I wasn't ready for it, and it's been very upsetting for me. What I would say to someone who's a senior in high school is flip that. And that is the majority of your time with your parents is coming to an end. And something I wish I had done, I don't know how you were, I wish I'd been kinder to my mother that last year. Because there's a very natural instinct when you're a teenage girl or teenage boy to, I don't want to say be unkind, but you're starting to rebel a little bit. And you're starting to find everything that your parents do is being really uncool. And when I look back, especially, you know, single mom struggling, I wish I'd just been a little kinder.

Oh, that's sweet, Scott. I have to say my kids were kind because COVID happened. And so I spent a lot of time with them by need. That was the greatest, the only gift of COVID was that. We spent so much time together. And then they formed a lot of bonds with my littler kids. And so that was a gift. And I agree, you should totally spend time with your parents.

Parents are probably cool since you're so cool. The last thing I would say is you don't have to go to college. There's other choices, right? Oh, this young woman is going to college, Kara. No, she is. But I'm just saying, you don't have to go that year. Like, Louie took a year off for the COVID thing. You know, you could do a lot of things. Like, don't rush into adulthood. Don't be a juvenile and spend all your parents' money, but, you know, get a job. You know, you could do other things necessarily, but, you know, you really do have one life. This is just one of the things on it, and that's what you should think about. Otherwise, we're glad we challenged you and a big influence on you. Again, I apologize

for Scott's penis jokes, but you're going to get those in life, and so you need to start understanding that now. Yeah, something tells me she's heard worse. But yeah, apply to a bunch of schools, get on the debate team, and hang out and be nice to your parents while you're still at home. Thank you, Sage. That is lovely.

It makes us feel better. You're actually helping us more than we're helping you. Anyway, if you've got a question of your own you'd like answered and it has to be as good as Sage's, send it our way. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for your prediction.

Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. I wanted to get back to my knitting's hear a prediction. I wanted to get back to my knitting and make a prediction about business. So I think an activist investor is going to pop up at one of the most storied, strongest brands in the world, and that brand is Nike. So essentially, Nike had one of its biggest one-day stock drops. The five-year return for Nike stock is negative 13%. The S&P has doubled. It's lost half its market value in just the past three years. Net profit margins have declined nearly 2% over the past year.

It's because of hokas. Yeah, I mean, this company, it has just been hit incredibly hard. It's down more than 30% year to date. It expects a 10% decline in revenue this quarter, single digit decline. I mean, Nike's down 30%. I think Adidas is up 20%. After reporting earnings last quarter, Nike plummeted nearly 20%. It's worst trading day since going public since 1980. It has now become the worst performer in the Dow Jones Index. And when you look at the power of this brand, I mean, it's lost share, a little bit of growth to new brands, upstart brands like On. Did you see the Zendaya ad with the player? What's the name? My favorite is Roger Federer.

Federer. Yeah, it's her and Federer. That's who it is. Oh, yeah. In the On ad. It's fantastic. Federer has made more money through On than Yeah, it's her and Federer. That's who it is. Oh, yeah. In the On ad. It's fantastic. Federer has made more money through On than he's made in his entire career as a tennis player. But anyways, if you look at it, On running enterprise value to EBITDA, On trades at 48 times.

Deckers, the owners of Hoka, is at 22. Adidas is at 29. Nike is at 17. And Nike's average over the last five years is 27. So in addition to the underperformance, the stock has been beaten up enough that I think it's now a very juicy target for an activist. Oh, interesting. So my prediction isn't that Nike will continue to underperform or overperform. My prediction is that one of the greatest global brands over the last 30 years, its EBITDA or its valuation is now at a point where it's becoming a dinner bell for an activist. So my prediction is in the next 90 days, somebody is going to file a 13D and say, hi, we're here and we're concerned at Nike.

Yeah, that's, you know, the CEO is John Donahoe, who is a tech CEO. He was at a bunch of different tech companies. I know him pretty well. I do have to say I know some Nike people, and they have been complaining about him for a while. He's got the support of Phil Knight, and that's who's the founder. That's what he's got, but I've heard a lot of disgruntlement within Nike about him. I just literally recently heard from like six or seven people there. And I like John, but he's definitely having a troubling time. It's a really interesting

problem. It'd be unprecedented that something like that lost market share, correct? They're facing some of the same problems like an Estee Lauder, right? I think China's 10 or 15% of their business, China's down. But Nike, which is an incredible brand, the space has actually done pretty well as a whole. So investors, I would bet that John, he has 12 months to figure this out. Otherwise, he will be removed from his position. But this is a classic activist, one of some of the biggest players in the world, like an Elliott or an Nelson Peltz. The thing they're going to love about this is because it has a $111 billion market cap, they can put a billion dollars to work here and no one even notices.

And what they'll do is they'll come in and they'll say, hi, we're here. We love the brand. There's tremendous value to be unlocked here. And we're, quote unquote, concerned. And they'll basically meet with John and say, what are your plans, John? And based on that meeting, they'll either go, okay, he's hit a rough patch, but he's the right guy. And they'll say, okay, we're giving you 12 months to figure it out. Or they're going to go, our worst fears have been realized here. I mean, they can go, they meet with Salesforce and they meet Mark Benioff and they go, okay, this guy's smart. He just got, he shoved too many calories down the esophagus of this company. They need to trim some fat. We'll give them some cloud cover to make some hard decisions. And boom, I think the stock's up 50 or 80% since whatever, since Elliot went in there. They leave. Thanks very much. this is the wrong guy and go hostile right away. But this brand, there are so few iconic brands of this stature, this heritage, this legacy

that have seen their value cut in half. It's just too tempting for an activist not to come in here. Oh, great, great prediction. It's really interesting. I have a little prediction. You and I are going to be in the theater on November 22nd when Gladiator 2 comes out. Have you seen the trailer?

I was not expecting you to say that. I understand that. It's Paramount Pictures. Yay, Paramount. It's going to be a big... It looks so good. It's Pedro Pascal. This guy, Paul Mascal, who's playing is in it, and Denzel Washington. It looks so fucking good. It's like, I'm so excited. I'm going to take you to the opening if I get invited. I will get invited to the opening because I happen to know David Ellison, so I'm going to demand it. Even after all the shitposting we've done on Paramount, do you know the Ellison kid? They're going to invite. I'm going to be talking to David Ellison, I suspect, hopefully.

Great. We're going. David Ellison, we would like tickets to the opening. We want to go to the big premiere. We'll dress up in gladiator outfit. We will go. We'll bring Sage with us. I've been calling everybody I know trying to get finals to the championship premiere. We'll dress up in Gladiator outfit. We will go. We'll bring Sage with us. I've been calling everybody I know

trying to get finals to the championship in Berlin. The other movie I'm excited about is Beetlejuice. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah. That's coming out. Justin Theroux's in it.

Yeah, I love Justin Theroux and I think he's super talented. Yeah, it's a sequel. Yeah, so I'm excited about that. Anyways. It looks fantastic. Yeah, anyway. I know sequels are kind of tired, but I don't care.

Gladiator is my favorite movie of all time. And that, too, looks fantastic. Pedro Pascal, that's all you got to tell me. And, like, Sword and Sandals. He's great. Anyway. Sword and Sandals. I love Sword and Sandals.

I watch The Robe. I watch all the Sword and Sandals. I watch Ben-Hur. I love them all. I love them. Every single one of them. Anyway, I am Sp of them. Anyway, I am Spartacus.

Okay, Scott, that's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot. Would you please read us out? Today's show is produced by Lara Naiman,

Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Travis Larchuk. Arne Jertot engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Mia Severio.

Nishat Kirwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. If you're a senior in high school, your time with your parents is not coming to an end, but it's going to substantially decrease. Leave on a high note.

Be nice. Be calm. Hey, mom. Hey, dad. Let's grab dinner.