Pivot - Biden's Future, Paramount Skydance Merger, and Guest Brian Derrick

Episode Date: July 9, 2024

Kara and Scott discuss Biden's decision to stay in the race, and what alternate scenarios might look like. Then, after months of negotiations, the Paramount and Skydance merger appears to be (finally) happening. Plus, Apple gets a seat on OpenAI's board, and Threads turns one. Finally, our Friend of Pivot is Brian Derrick, a political strategist, and the founder and CEO of Oath, a fundraising platform that aims to maximize campaign donations. Brian explains how donors are reacting to Biden's continued candidacy, and reveals the high-stakes statewide elections that people should be paying attention to. Follow Brian at @brianderrick_ Follow us on Instagram and Threads at @pivotpodcastofficial. Follow us on TikTok at @pivotpodcast. Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or at nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for Pivot comes from Virgin Atlantic. Too many of us are so focused on getting to our destination that we forgot to embrace the journey. Well, when you fly Virgin Atlantic, that memorable trip begins right from the moment you check in. On board, you'll find everything you need to relax, recharge, or carry on working. Buy flat, private suites, fast Wi-Fi, hours of entertainment, delicious dining, and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. delicious dining and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. Check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip to London and beyond, and see for yourself how traveling for business can always be a pleasure.

Thumbtack presents the ins and outs of caring for your home. Out. Uncertainty. Self-doubt. Stressing about not knowing where to start. In. Plans and guides that make it easy to get home projects done. Out. Word art. Sorry, Live Laugh Lovers. In. Knowing what to do, when to do it, and who to hire. Start caring for your home with confidence. Download Thumbtack today. correct, Scott? Yeah, I'm in, I just got to Munich. And? Warum? Yeah, no, I'm going to see.

That means why. That means why in German. Oh, yeah. Warum? Volkswagen. Fahrvergnügen. I'm here. I'm here for the Spain-France

semifinal tomorrow at Allianz Stadium, which I'm super excited about. Oh. And here with my boy and his mother who was born and raised in Germany.

And tonight I'm going to dress up like Poland and she's going to invade me. Oh, you did that again. That never gets old. It does get old. It actually gets old. That is the last time you get to say that joke. That never gets old.

Do you understand that? I have now put a... I'm going to Anschluss you if you don't stop. But lots happened since we were away. I was off in Vermont having beers at the hardware store with a guy named Kevin, an old guy who was lecturing me about the country, which was interesting. Nice. Yeah, it was interesting to be there. Vermont and New Hampshire are two very idyllic places, but which there's great poverty, too, and a lot of disgruntlement. And, you know,

it's interesting to get not in cities kind of thing when you're far from people, lots of people. And it was just interesting. Finished by a pancake breakfast, which was lovely. Welcome back. Anyway, Polly's Pancakes, I recommend it in New Hampshire. It's very famous. Nice. But we've got a lot to get to today. You called me while I was on vacation because of all the speaking of Germany, Sturm und Drang, about Biden. It was crazy. We've got a lot to talk about. Before that, the return of the Paramount Skydance merger, threads hitting its one-year mark. Whether it's going to be a social media giant, I don't know.

It's becoming increasingly annoying for both you and I. Plus, our friend of Pivot is Brian Derrick. He's a political strategist and CEO and founder of Oath, a fundraising platform trying to maximize the impact of political donations. He's had a busy couple of weeks. So let's get to Joe Biden because among the things you called me about was this, was sort of the anger. And I've noticed you posting about that, calling people cultists, the DNC cultists. I have to agree. You cannot say anything online without getting attacked by saying, oh, I have concerns. And then you're like satanic.

It's bizarre. People who are newly minted experts. But let's get to what the actual things are. President Joe Biden says he's firmly committed to staying in the race. A newly released letter, he did it, dropped it Monday morning as the Congress was coming back to congressional Democrats.

He declined to drop his candidacy and set his time for the party drama to end. The Washington Post has a tracker of how many House Democrats have publicly asked him to stand down. The number is currently at nine. Biden told ABC's George Stephanopoulos on Friday, that interview,

that only the Lord Almighty could make him drop out, which means nobody, because I don't believe the Lord Almighty is speaking to him. What do you think is happening here? He's decided to take a page out of Trump's book, which is to shamelessly just say, no, I'm not leaving, and use voters as the reason, which is a good argument, I suppose. And use voters as the reason, which is a good argument, I suppose. I think the campaign is in a doom loop right now. And that is, I mean, first off, Trump is now up 49% to 43%. That is the greatest advantage Trump has had at any point against a candidate. And 74% of voters view Biden as too old for the job. And I have sort of a weird analogy here. When I knew it was over, Red Envelope, when we were in real trouble, was in 2008, right before the holidays.

The most valuable thing you have as an online retailer is your database. And you can kind of email them sort of once, twice a week, and you get $400,000, $600,000, $800,000 in additional revenue within an hour of that email going out, highlighting a product or a promotion. But if you do more than two or three a week, you start to get more unsubscribes and incremental revenue. And when I knew we were in trouble, I remember I was on vacation and I started getting three emails a day from Red Envelope. And I'm like, oh no. And so I called the CEO and I said, what's up? And he said, we just got our line of credit pulled.

We're in a huge cash crunch. And if we can't find liquidity in the next two or three weeks, we're going to have to declare Chapter 11. And I looked back through my emails. I was getting a letter from Joe or Kamala once every two days for the last several weeks. You know, criticizing Trump and asking for a small dollar donation. In the last 72 hours, I've received 23 emails from them. Because this is what I think is going on. There's the, I largely, this comes down to money.

Largely, you could bucket it into three groups. The whales, the people who give millions of dollars or raise millions of dollars, like Koch brothers or the former, the late Sheldon Adelson or Reid Hoffman. Those folks, I think, are just standing still. They're not going to come out and criticize them or call for them to step down. But be clear, these are smart people and they're not going to write a seven-figure check that might end up in an account that only Kamala can use or they don't know where it goes. So they're standing down.

And some are critical, like Ari Emanuel and some others. But go ahead. The other group of voters or donors I call the porpoises, and I don't know if that's the right term, but it's sort of thousands or tens of thousands pretty politically involved. I'm in that group, and this is anecdotal, but I have heard from 20 or 30 of them. And we give tens of thousands, probably over the long-term, six figures, very politically engaged. Not only are they not giving money to Biden, they are openly signing letters asking him to step down. I mean, they are- Including you. That's right. And they are in full revolt. And already, already there are several groups

pulling together to pull together cash for the next candidate. And I think what's happening is the Biden campaign is so desperate to show some form of strength that they're milking as hard as they can, or they're squeezing the small donor lemon as hard as they can to try. Which they've had some success with. Yeah, because they need to show something. But here's the thing. When the party elders, ranging from Clyburn to Pelosi, and I'm curious if you agree with this, to Adam Schiff, to David Axelrod, to Obama, they've essentially all said some version of what Representative Schiff said on Meet the Press. Well, Obama has not, but go ahead. But hasn't Obama said that Joe needs to-

No, no, no. He hasn't said anything? No, no, no. He hasn't said anything? No, Hakeem Jeffries and he have been, Pelosi's been the closest to saying, perhaps concerns are good, good to have concerns. She's been sort of middle, she's always playing the middle. Didn't she say that it's a fair question as to whether this is, you know, a bad day or a condition, if you will? That's correct. In my opinion.

She's saying, voters, we hear you and we hear your concerns. That's what she's saying. I think that's a generous interpretation. When Schiff went on Meet the Press, he was. Schiff was very clear. He was very deliberate. He said, I think that the president should talk to some advisors outside of his circle and get advice. In my opinion, that is the gentlest, nicest, most diplomatic way of saying, get the fuck out of the race. If any of these guys thought that he had a shot at beating Trump, they would be, I know the man, he's had a bad night, they would be rallying around him. I see this as, I just don't, I'm shocked. I'm shocked it didn't happen over the weekend. And I love scenario planning. I'm sorry, I'll stop there and I'll come back to scenario planning.

What do you think? Let me just say, he just did a live interview in the Morning Joe, which is his favorite place, daring his critics to challenge him at the convention. He wrote that letter immediately in the morning. Like, I could see the planning happening. They're saying, you know, I don't think that interview went. I found a mirror again. And it made me less likely to want to support him, I have to say. The issue I have, and I'm more in the middle than you are, because I do of the first to talk about the age issue quite a while ago. He wrote a very good piece saying risk is okay, everybody. It's okay to risk this thing.

But at this point, the one thing that I do think about a lot is at this point, given the candidate opposing him and the economy and how things are doing, Joe Biden should be like lapping Trump at this point. Not losing it. He should be lapping him. And that really, you know, they all don't point that out. Like, how could he be losing to this? Like, remember when Trump said, how can I be losing to this guy? How can he be losing to this guy? Yeah.

Like that to me. And I think there is a real, and then they're trying to blame the media for creating an age thing. I don't agree. I think I talk to lots of people and they are outside of the media, by the way, and they're concerned, as they should be. I'm concerned that someone that old in a couple of years has their finger on the nuclear button or has to make decisions. And then they're like, that's what a vice president's for. I'm like, are you fucking kidding me?

Like, we're relying on the vice president? Like, I just don't. I think it's beneath us as a country. Like, now, NATO is marking its 75th anniversary this week. I interviewed the ambassador, our ambassador to NATO, very smart woman, young woman, who's worked for Tony Blinken. She, of course, didn't mention and talk about this at all. But I think most people view it as a test for Biden, including the Biden administration. He's got to be at a lot of events. His last one from now reporting shows that a lot of the Europeans are concerned. And

a senior official from a NATO country told The Washington Post the summit was a moment to assess Biden in the flesh, making plans accordingly. They all seem to think that Trump will win at this point after they encountered him in Europe the last time. I just, you know, why do we keep doing this? Let's see how he does today. Let's see how he does. That's where we are in the discussion. I don't know. I find it disturbing. There's too much, there's so much anger and so much speculation around how dare you question, we need to rally behind him, and then he'd be fine. And then he'd be, even if he's in a coma, he'd be better than Trump. I agree with all of that, but it's moot because as it stands now.

He's losing. He's going to lose. And I'll give you an example. I'm not a fan of Vice President Harris. I think she would be up an example. I'm not a fan of Vice President Harris. I think she would be up six points. I agree. So the cold, hard truth is the following. If you put up Vice President Harris as the candidate, or if you were to get really savvy and go three debates, six, four, then two people, have Clinton and Romney moderate, have a really interesting

convention and actually have a convention that's supposed to do what it's supposed to do, that person would come out, in my view, six days. You would see the largest swing in the history of presidential politics within about 14 days. Also, one of the arguments is, oh, it's taking, and I would agree with this, every minute they're doing this takes the focus off of Trump. But there's been a lot of focus. Everyone's like, oh, you're not focused on Trump.

I'm like, are you kidding me? Nobody cares that he's a felon. Like, or his voters don't care that he's, I do, I care a great deal that he's a felon. But, you know, you have this prosecutor lady against a felon. I kind of like it. Like, you know, it's kind of interesting.

And voters have said again and again that they want a choice. You know, Ezra wrote, Ezra Klein wrote in The Times, if Biden steps aside, Democrats have two options, a coronation or a contest. He tended toward the contest because he thinks it's exciting and creates all kinds of buzz around it. But right now, a post-debate CNN poll has Trump at 47% and Harris at 45% in a matchup. Trump beats Biden 49% to 43% in the same poll. Harris is losing to Trump right now, but Biden is losing by more. And so once she gets a bump and she gets put up in stature, someone told me very smartly that nobody likes a woman running, but they like a woman in office, right?

Which is interesting. That is interesting. I thought it was true. Hillary Clinton was much more attractive as a senator and a secretary of state. And then the minute she was running, she wasn't. No one likes a woman running. It seems like not a thing a woman should do.

And the whole argument, taking the focus off of Donald Trump, yeah, that is true. We should be focusing on Donald Trump and talking about his policy problems. Now he's trying to run from the 20, whatever that plan that they have to put everybody in jail, the 2025 plan. But he's picking his vice president pick by July. Now, it's not a big deal, but he'll make hay of it, of course. And it's either apparently J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, or Doug Burgum are still in the mix. I think someone said, I thought smartly, if he thinks he's going to win, he'll pick J.D. Vance.

If he thinks he may not win, he'll pick Marco Rubio. And if he's worried about governing, which he is, then he'll pick Doug Burgum. So that was interesting. That means it's not Burgum. But look, Vice President Harris is the most seamless because she can immediately take a quarter of a billion dollars and sort of say, thank you, it's mine, because there's some questions over if he could even transfer all those funds to another candidate. But I think in terms of a battle-tested candidate who would be the most robust, you want a competition.

And also, folks, this is a political party, not a suicide pact. England just had an election start to finish in six weeks. France just basically reoriented their entire election in seven days, pushing back the far right. But the notion that the cultists from the Democratic Party are saying it's too late, you're aiding and abetting the enemy. Give me a break. Sit down. It's not a suicide pact. We need to beat Trump. The cold-heart analysis is the following. If you were just ruthless about beating Trump, you would probably have Whitmer Shapiro and deliver two of the three swing states. They're both very popular governors. Whitmer is fairly well-vetted. Unfortunately, she has no name recognition. But here's the bottom line. Anybody else beats him. So stop talking about what a good man he is, how we need to unite about him, how awful Trump is, and Trump's the one that should withdraw. No, this is the whole cold

heart analysis. Any candidate we put up now, and we have the time to put up a candidate. We also have the time for a competition, in my view, not a coronation. You could take all the media oxygen out of the way, have almost like a shark tank, four debates in two view, not a coordination. You could take all the media oxygen out of the way, have almost like a shark tank, four debates in two weeks, go to the convention. It would be exciting. You produce two really interesting candidates, and they beat this guy like a drum.

Right, yeah. And then everyone's focused on the Democrats. That's the thing. Everyone's, as long as it's not chaotic, right? What I think is happening now is that, you know, I continue to think of, say, X, like a toxic waste dump of angry right-wingers just attacking, and I never go there anymore. But I watch a lot of dumb videos of cooking and weird jumping dogs and things like that. It's very enjoyable. But the comments, I don't want to post on there.

But you know where two-thirds of the comments are coming from, Cara? Crazy DNC cultists that are just really— I think it's only a third. I think two-thirds, and I know this sounds paranoid, but it doesn't mean I'm wrong. I think it's coming from the GRU, the CCP, and the Trump campaign. Could be. And would you put it past the Trump campaign, as sophisticated as they are? Nobody wants Biden to stay in the race more than the Biden family, than the Trump family. Yeah. Trump, they've done the polls. Anyone, are you kidding? Newsom, Newsom Whitmer? Newsom on the debate stage with Trump?

He disarticulates that fascist, felon, sexual abuser limb by limb. And everyone in every IHOP on every media show, including Fox, goes, I'm going to give that tall, handsome guy a shot. They say, Whitmer, oh, isn't it time you give Vice President Harris a quarter of a billion dollars? She likes a beer. She says, motherfucker. The contrast between a really intelligent woman in her 50s against this guy, his late, an obese orange guy in his late 70s? They also put these people in a situation where they can't speak. That's what the Biden people are doing, right? That they can't, these are exciting candidates. Like, they're so, the

candidates in the Democratic Party right now, and there's a number in the Republican Party, same thing with Trump, by the way, FYI, but more so in the Democratic Party. There are 10 governors that are fantastic. 100%. Fan-fucking-tastic. Maura Healey stuck her head up and said, just a second, Joe, and got pilloried. And she's right to say so. So are the rest of them going to do it? Like, how dare they not let these exciting, young, interesting things saying it's not, you know, just like, and I get his, the only argument that I tend to agree with him is the voters picked him, but that was because there was no, you know, that's fine. The voters picked him, that they have agreed in all these states, but he really, that's, it's bullshit. They'll accept his pick,

then point to someone and anoint someone if you want to do that. Point to someone and say that. But if you're not, and it also, the last thing I'll say, and we've got to move on, is it reminds everybody of an elderly parent, this thing, doesn't it? Oh, we've all been there. And by the way, my dad didn't want to give up his driver's license. Okay, a couple things. One, what do you think it does for the down ballot races, which are hugely important? Well, we're going to talk about that. We're going to talk about that with our guests.

But if they see on the debate stage a Governor Shapiro, they're like, Jesus Christ, that guy is impressive. By the way, Jewish captain of his basketball team. Not easy, Kara. Not easy. I did a great interview with him. He's fantastic. Okay. What do they think when they hear Senator Klobuchar talk about antitrust? Wow, the Democrats have stopped. What do they think when they see Raphael Warnock on the state? They go like, Jesus Christ, the Democrats have their shit together. Maybe I'll pull blue a little bit more. These debates, if they did eight, six, and four, in two weeks, they could pull it off. No problem.

The RSVPs would be 100% yes. It'd be the media events of the year. Everyone would go, Jesus Christ, Democrat. I'm going with the team that has the best players. That's Democrats. They pick two young, attractive people who have their shit together. I mean, boom, it's over. It's literally fucking over. And instead, you know who is about to become the most hated person in the world on November the 5th? Jill Biden.

Jill Biden. Jill. Yeah, Jill and Jill. is so powerful and what scenario planning is, it's not an attempt to predict the future. It's like, let's talk about possible futures such that we can outline a series of actions that play best against different possible futures. There's four scenarios here. He drops out, right? And the other Democrat wins. That means every room President Biden walks into for the rest of his life, he gets a standing ovation. And he might have his face chiseled into Mount Rushmore one day. That is literally the best thing you could hope for, for your father, your brother, your husband. Hands down.

He drops out and the Democrat loses. I don't think anyone blames him. They say, Joe, you did the right thing. Not your fault. Okay. He stays in. he stays in and he loses. He's a fucking pariah, as is Jill Biden for the rest of his life. He's the fascist. He's Ruth Bader Ginsburg time 100 malignant narcissism ahead of the country. This is the worst thing for him personally, if he stays in and he wins. It's going to be a – Yeah, he's got to win. He's got to – but I personally think for him, that is the worst thing that could happen.

It's going to be a series of – I've lived through this. It's going to be a series of private and very public humiliations and everyone around him trying to manage him, trying to hide him, doing their best to prop him up. Do you realize he's done the fewest media impressors since Reagan? Yeah, it's by a lot. I was looking at those numbers. It's crazy. And by the way, Reagan, when did Reagan start getting evidence of Alzheimer's? I've asked them a dozen times, Scott. I've asked them a dozen times. So my question is to his family, why on earth would they do this to this man? Yeah, I agree with you. I mean, winning is his only option.

And if he wins, even if he wins and I'd be glad for him to win, I'm still worried about someone that old, the president, in a very profound way, in a troubled world to have someone like that as president is disturbing to me. The whole campaign is going to go... In two years, like he's passably okay right now, but not really. The whole campaign would just go listless.

There would be so much energy and excitement around the Democratic Party with if they basically said, now here's, this is the strongest bench in history and we're putting them in. I mean, it would just, it would get so much attention.

Those would be the most watched debates in history. Yep. And one of the things that, listen, everyone who thinks it's the media, this is not the media. It really, really isn't. As much as you'd love to blame the media, it is simply not. Like someone was saying how terrible the George Stephanopoulos interview was. I was like, it wasn't. It was quite good.

How dare he ask him so much about his age? I'm like, okay, we're going to stop talking now. Oh, for fuck's sake. Anyway, for more on elections and how donors are factoring in, let's bring in our friend of Pivot, because that's going to be a big deal. The money is where it counts. Brian Derrick is a political strategist and the CEO and founder of Oath, a fundraising platform that uses data to rate and identify high stake elections. The aim is to direct donors to campaigns where their money will have the maximum impact. Brian, welcome.

Thank you for having me on. Glad to be back. You actually talked to us back in September 2021. On that episode, Scott asked you to predict the 2024 presidential candidates. Let's listen to what you said. predict the 2024 presidential candidates. Let's listen to what you said. The most likely scenario seems to be Donald Trump versus Joe Biden, round two. Really? So you think Biden's going to get there? And you think that Trump announces and gets the nomination? He's going to get the nomination. Yeah, I know people are not happy to hear that.

I think that recent tidbits and headlines have pointed to hear that. I think that recent tidbits and headlines have pointed to Trump running. I think he will be, I think he will clear the field. I think people will run against him. I think it will be very difficult to do so. And I think that if he wins the nomination, or even before that, Joe Biden will feel compelled for the same reasons he felt compelled to run in 2020, he will feel compelled to run again. And so that's why I say that seems like the most likely scenario. Brian, you're a genius. It's not too late for me to be wrong.

Okay. All right. So I want you to start by giving us another 2024 prediction. As of this moment, and it does feel like it changes hour by hour, I do think that Biden will likely step aside before the Democratic National Convention, given the momentum of members of Congress in the Senate and sort of the donors as well coming out of the woodwork to encourage him to seal his legacy as a successful one-term president. So let me ask you about that, because he this morning, he dropped that letter, which he's like, I'm not going anywhere. His I'm not going anywhere letter. And then, which he didn't have to do. And then he went on Morning Joe, his favorite program, and said, I'm not leaving. So what is that about? And then I want to talk about the money mostly. I think that our leaders are never doing something until they're doing it. And that's not uncommon in the political space, right? When someone's in an office and they're looking at a higher office,

for example, they'll say, oh, I'm going to finish my term. I'm going to finish my term. And then there's the campaign launch video. It's just how things are done. I will agree. I think that he's been maybe more aggressive on the I'm not going anywhere push campaign than I anticipated for this week. But the conversations that I'm having with sort of political operatives behind the scenes inside of Biden world, outside of Biden world, don't see how the path that we're on right now can be sustained through the convention. And so something's got to give, and either a lot of people need to start falling in line enthusiastically, or Biden will have to go back on what he's saying right now. Okay. So let's talk about how it works in terms of taking donations and directing the money.

Because as Scott just said a second ago before you came on, money is where it's at. And he calls himself a porpoise. He will explain it to you, of a donation. But you said the problem Oath is trying to solve is a tendency for donors to rage donate into the abyss. There are a lot of villains in the political ecosystem that get people very angry and that generate this emotional response, whether it's Marjorie Taylor Greene or Lauren Boebert or somebody else. And in the last eight years, that has really turbocharged this grassroots donor environment where people see something happen on the news or hear about it on a podcast,

on Twitter, and then immediately run and donate to try and get that person out of office when really those funds could be much better used somewhere else, maybe just to keep that person out of power. And so what we set up with Oath is a free platform where people can go see what their donations are actually going to accomplish. We do objective analysis to say

where are dollars needed the most to advance the thing that you care about right now, whether that's repo rights or protecting democracy, and how can you direct it as strategically as possible without getting sort of the blowback of a thousand text messages and phone calls asking for more money. All right, Scott. So before you came on, I trifurcated donors into three buckets. And my sense is the thing that gets him out probably the most quickly,

let's assume that he's totally defiant and sees Nancy, Speaker Pelosi at his door and just says, sorry, Nancy, I'm not interested in talking to anybody. And says, you know, it's Obama on line one and he says, I'm not interested. He just goes totally defiant. If the money tap gets shut off, it gets very hard for him to stay in the race. And loosely

speaking, three buckets. And by the way, tell me if these are the wrong buckets. Big donors, medium-sized, small donor. My sense of the big donors is they're just taking a wait-and-see attitude. They're not going to throw millions of dollars into an abyss and not understand if and who it's going to. My sense of the medium-sized donors, and this is anecdotal evidence and I'm one of them, is that we are an open revolt. We are not only signing letters

and have stopped giving money to the Biden campaign, but are starting to give money and are ready and prepping to give money to other candidates. And then the small money donors are just getting inundated with desperate emails from the Biden campaign as they attempt to show some signs of life. Tell me where I got that wrong and what it means in terms of is the tap going to get, has it been shut off? I think that it has turned into a trickle for sure. A lot of donors are pulling back, at least at the presidential level. We've seen an increase in traffic to oath, tens of thousands of donors looking to give,

but they're not looking to give to the Biden campaign or similar. They're looking to give to down ballot races in these competitive states where maybe a progressive or exciting younger candidate could turn out people who might ultimately vote for the Democratic nominee for president, regardless of who that is. It's called a reverse coattails strategy. We're seeing a lot of enthusiasm there at the grassroots level. at the grassroots level. But I think that you're right, particularly in this mid-level tier, that people are looking for other options and they're looking to exert influence

to try to pressure Biden to exit the race and have a more viable candidate, somebody with a wider path to victory, take his place. There's also a partner that Oath is working with called Pass the Torch, which has set up a fund where you can give to whoever the nominee might be, so long as that person is a new candidate. It's literally just launching today, actually. But I think that all of these are examples of how people are still looking to advance their values.

People are really concerned about the stakes of the election, but they want to do it in a strategic way. Right. But how concerned are you it will happen to down ballot candidates if he stays in the race? Staying away from that, how even if these you're directing him in the right places, how concerned are you? You know, I know reverse coattails, but there is such a thing as coattails. Definitely. Very concerned. Yeah, I want to be clear. Extremely concerned.

I had my staff, which are mostly engineers and data analysts, prepare a memo last week that said the worst case scenario. And so if Biden loses in a landslide, right, we can imagine a debate performance similar to what happened a few weeks ago, another moment like that right before the election. If he loses in a landslide, what does that do to the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House, state they're incredibly high up and down ballot when you have election deniers and far right extremists running to take over very important parts of our government all across the country. And so we can't afford to have a year like 2010 when Democrats fell asleep at the wheel in the midterms with Obama in office. Truly, we cannot sustain or our democracy may not be able to survive a result like that. And so that is why we're trying to focus people's attention on these

races, that it's true that there's a down ballot effect. But even if we underperform at the top of the ticket for whatever reason, we can save some of these Supreme Court seats. We can save state legislative seats and avert a worst case scenario. One of the things that Biden people are saying is they raised all that money after the debate, the $28 million or whatever on small donations. But who matters more? We've already seen some major donors, including Barry Diller and Netflix, Reed Hastings, Harry Emanuel publicly halting their support, Rick Caruso until there's a new Democratic nominee.

Other big donors are going to support. There was one particular one that's supporting one, supporting him. And some say they're shifting their funding to House and Senate races. A lot of people are saying that to me. Who's more important, these big whales or porpoises like Scott or what? What matters with the money here? You can't make it work entirely without both. You need both in order to put together

the scale of campaign that is required to win in 2024. But I will say at the presidential level where Biden in hard side dollars is expected to spend over a billion dollars, a significant portion of that is coming in six-figure checks to the Biden Victory Fund. And so the grassroots support is critical and also builds momentum and all of these signifiers of party strength and unity, very important. But when it comes to how many offices you can open in the battleground states, how much time you can be up refuting attack ads and those kinds of things, a big chunk of that money does come from this middle tier that Scott's referring to and high dollar donors as well.

Scott? What do you think, so what is the next, if you will, litmus test that publicly and privately sends a very strong signal around fundraising? Do they get daily reports, weekly reports? What publicly says, all right, now his donations have dried up? When do we see that? We will not see those figures until early August unless they choose to release some data beforehand. There's a quarterly report that we'll get on July 16th, but it'll mostly have the same information

that we just got from the monthly report that we get about the national committees. It will be, I will say, as someone who's worked in campaign finance for most of my career, you can weave a lot of different narratives out of finance data about the strength of your campaign or how much you have versus your opponent. Biden has raised so much money to date, a historic amount of funds, that he's not going to be shutting down campaign offices or laying people off. That is not sort of in the realm of possibility in the next six weeks. the realm of possibility in the next six weeks. So he will not face a cash crunch before the convention. And if he leaves the convention as the nominee, the money taps, many of which I think they're making the calculation will turn on again because people will have nowhere else to go.

But what are you saying? You're in this community, right? Across your buddies that you talk to or meet with over a beer, I don't know where you live or coffee or, I'm worried that saying someone drinks beer is somehow a hate crime now, but anyways. Move along. terms of, is it off 90%? Is it off 10%? Am I being alarmist? I would imagine it's literally just stopped. What are you hearing in terms of donations to Biden and to Democrats in general? What's going on out there? I'm hearing, I'm part of multiple different donor collectives or donor groups that I either advise or am a member of that are having parallel conversations around how can we make a change here to match the crisis of the moment that we're in. And so either people are making the choice to And so either people are making the choice to withhold money entirely, which would allude to the sort of change that you're referring to. But I think that it's more common that they're changing the targeting.

That, as you mentioned, Cara, that they're looking at Senate races and House races, that they're setting up new super PACs to support alternate candidates. And so there's still a lot of money moving. There's no real way for us to assess the damage being done directly to Biden's accounts and how much that has slowed. I can't estimate that. So in that vein, aside from what's going on at the top of the ticket, what's the most important race no one's talking about? Where have you been pushed? Give us two examples or one example. There's many. I would say state Supreme Court races in Michigan and North Carolina, incredibly important this cycle.

People often overlook state Supreme Courts, but they influence how maps are drawn, what voting rights we have, reproductive rights, gun legislation, all kinds of things are decided at that level. So I think that both of those will be really critical. And then I would also point to the state-led races happening in Arizona. Both chambers are currently controlled by Republicans, but could flip to Democrats with a strong, robust turnout campaign in Arizona. Even if we lose at the presidential level, the way that the districts are drawn, it's still possible that we could flip those chambers

and reverse Arizona's abortion ban, which would be vitally important to, of course, millions of people living there. And then the last one I'll sneak in are the ballot measures. Big year for ballot measures. A dozen states putting reproductive rights on the ballot. Also, anti-gerrymandering ballot measure in Ohio. In Missouri, there's one for a living wage.

Lots of really great opportunities for direct democracy. When you think about what's happening now, I realize it's unprecedented, but everyone's like, you can't go into chaos. We have to stick with Joe. Ezra Klein made a very good argument. Risk-taking is okay. Do you think it's a good time to take a risk? And I assume the money will flow to whoever they decide if they take a risk and do it in a non-chaotic way, not ridiculously chaotic is what I'm talking about. But is that the worst thing to create chaos for the Democratic Party? Can you answer those critics that say that we can't do it now,

it's too late? I think that the damage has been done in terms of chaos. And unfortunately, while I support him and have spent a lot of time talking about his successes, it was done by President Biden. He entered this chaos into the conversation with his debate performance. And so now all we can do is respond to it. I said right after the debate, it's going to be a very uncomfortable six weeks until the convention. And then after that, it will be settled one way or the other, whether it goes the way I hope it does or not. We only have a few weeks left of this potential chaos. But Joe Biden coming out every single day and saying he's staying in the race is not going to quiet it either. So I think that you can take the desire for a neutral piece out of the equation and just decide what you want to come out of the chaos.

Do you want a new candidate to come out on the other side and the energy and sort of the historic nature that might come with that? Or do we want to stick to Biden and cross our fingers that we make it across the finish line in November. But either way, now through the convention is going to be a rocky couple of weeks with a lot of uncertainty and unanswered questions. Scott, last question. So we've been talking a lot about Biden. Do you have a sense for where Trump's fundraising is in contrast or compared to July of 2020? In contrast or compared to July of 2020?

In a much stronger position than 2020. I'd have to pull the exact numbers, but he has spent the last three months in back rooms with billionaires, and they have really stepped up. We saw Tim Mellon, who also is supporting RFK Jr., one of his largest donors, just write a $50 million check to a Trump super PAC. Absolutely huge amounts of money. He also met, as I'm sure you've talked about, with oil execs and asked them to raise him a billion dollars and said that he would make some policy changes to his platform in exchange. And so he really has leaned in to the billionaire club, is amending his platform actively, things like flip-flopping on TikTok, in order to appease them. And it is paying dividends. And we're seeing that in his dramatically accelerated fundraising post-conviction. But you brought up something. You mentioned RFK Jr. Just quickly,

we'd be remiss not to ask, fundraising for RFK Jr. and what that says about the race. I think the RFK Jr.'s campaign has always been propped up by just a handful of people who have other interests in his candidacy continuing, whether that's his running mate, who's written millions at this point, maybe over 10 million in checks to his campaign, or whether it's billionaires who have their own interests in who they think he will take votes away from. But there are certainly no grassroots energy or grassroots donation campaign in order to fund and scale an RFK Jr. ticket. He would not even have the funds to make it on the ballot in many states without these million plus dollar checks that people have been writing to help him. Interesting. All right, Brian, this is really helpful. I think people have been writing to help them. Interesting. All right, Brian, this is really helpful. I think people should just calm the fuck down. That's our feeling. Just like, just think logically about where the money should go,

including these down ballot races you mentioned. But people can go to oath.vote to learn more and figure out what you are interested in voting for and that you can put money to use in ways that are probably more helpful going forward. Thank you so much. Thanks for having me on. Scott, that was helpful, don't you think?

It's always good to have logical people on. Yeah, logical, calm people. Calm people, unlike us. Wow! When we come back, Paramount's merger with Skydance is finally happening. What a surprise. And Threads marks its first anniversary. Fox Creative.

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in the Paramount Skydance merger drama, of which you think is not important, but still is interesting. The deal is back on. A special committee of Paramount's board signed off on the Skydance merger on Sunday night, with the full board later endorsing it, according to Bloomberg. Paramount controlling shareholder Sherry Redstone has blessed the deal, saying it will, quote, fortify Paramount for the future while ensuring that content remains king. Oh, Sherry, maybe an archduke, perhaps. perhaps. Under the latest agreement, Redstone will sell National Amusements to Skydance for $2.4 billion. Skydance will then merge with Paramount, investing $8 billion. Skydance founder David Ellison becomes the chairman and CEO. Former NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Schell will be president. The merger is subject to regulatory approval and also includes a go-shop period that

gives Paramount 45 days to find a better offer. Oh, good God. So what thinks you, very briefly? It's like when I go to a jazz bar. I pretend to be interested and just think, when is this going to end? I have the same feeling. Let's not go to a jazz bar together. Oh, my God. Same feeling.

Oh, of course, I love jazz. And by the way, I loved Hamilton. I did like Hamilton, but go ahead. Oh, we all did, Kara. No, I love jazz. Yeah, no. And by the way, I loved Hamilton. I thought that was fantastic. I did like Hamilton, but go ahead. Oh, well, we all did, Kara. No, I did. I actually. No, yeah, of course. Of course, we all did.

All right, come on. Any thoughts? Look, Skydance and partners, they'll invest eight, just to give you a sense, there's $8 billion in Paramount to acquire national amusements. NVIDIA gained almost 13 times that in market cap over the weekend. The media is obsessed with itself. It's got some iconic assets, but Paramount's stock has declined,

was off 4% today and is down 21% year to date. I don't even think, unfortunately, I think the fucking water torture continues here. They have a 45-day go shop, which good boards are supposed to do to see if there's a bigger bidder. I wouldn't be surprised at this yard sale price if someone that we haven't even mentioned pops up. Did you see Barry Diller was wandering around for a little bit and then another rich guy? Yeah, another rich guy.

Another rich guy. Yeah, another rich guy. I just wonder, though, like, okay, if Sherry has finally stopped hallucinating and is willing to do a deal for X price, I got to think there's a number of people saying, getting out their pencil and go, would we like to have these assets for 10% more? I want you to make the very brief case of why you should have these, why these are good assets to have, even if they're meaningless compared to NVIDIA. Let's not make the NVIDIA comparison. Because they still produce iconic films that make money. And despite what everyone says about cable being a melting ice cube, it's a melting ice cube that still spins off a ton of free cash. These are still very good businesses. It's just that everybody wants them to be young again. And somebody with discipline is going to come in and consolidate these with the other cable channels and cut costs faster than the business declines. The business isn't

declined, but it won't go away as fast as people think. And if they take a private equity approach to managing this company, it's going to spin off a shit ton of cash. And at these prices, it's probably a good buy. Can do rather well. Yeah, that's a very good. Thank you for that. Moving to other big headlines,

Boeing is going to plead guilty to a single criminal fraud charge tied to the deadly 737 MAX jet crashes that killed over 300 people. Under the pending deal with the DOJ, the company will pay a fine of $243 million, agree to third-party compliance monitoring, and will avoid a high-profile trial. Relatives of the victims in the 2018 and 2019 crashes are calling it a sweetheart deal. I would agree

with them, particularly in light of the Alaska Airlines midair incident earlier this year. The deal is accepted. The felony charge could complicate Boeing's many defense and space contracts with the U.S. government. It's usually rare for them to plead guilty. I think it should have gone to trial. I don't know. It seems troubling for Boeing and for everybody else. This is, I was thinking about, I was in Greece and then Turkey this weekend, and I'd made the trip plans a while ago. And I was sort of bummed out because when I was in Bodrum, Turkey, I thought the world really is bifurcating. I saw very few Americans and Western Europeans there. And I thought we're polarizing. We're pulling apart from each other.

And it's sad. And I think one of the things that brought more people together than probably possibly any technology other than the printing press or maybe the internet, is commercial jet technology. Because my parents came to Europe on a steamship, and now their son is flying all over the world and meeting new people and doing business all over the world. And I really do think that the commercial jet transportation brings people together as a huge boost for the economy. But it has to be something that is seen as bulletproof, because the reality is our brain can't process that we're in a steel tube skirting along the surface of the atmosphere at eight tenths the speed of sound. And it's fucking terrifying unless you know, unless you know,

that the drive to the airport was about 40 times more dangerous. And so this has global implications. People have to feel a really solid sense of security globally when they get in a plane. So, you know, I love Boeing. I think it's a great plane. I'm sorry. I think it's a great company. It's done a lot for America. It's benefited from, obviously, huge defense spending, but it's kind of, it really is a quintessential American company. huge defense spending, but it's kind of, it really is a quintessential American company.

But commercial jet transportation has to have the most stringent standards across regulation and across our legal system and technology. So I'm pulling for Boeing, but these companies in no uncertain terms have to be hit hard if and whenever they cut corners, because this is key to our- I would agree. And I think the government is a real fail. The government fail of monitoring is really quite significant here. This is their job to keep. This is the one thing they absolutely have to keep safe. Another thing, we're going to have a little grab bag here. Apple is reportedly picking up an open AI board seat as part of its deal to put chat GPT on its devices.

They're getting a lot. The head of the apps, Phil Schiller, will get an observer seat for free, according to Bloomberg. an AI board seat as part of its deal to put chat GPT on its devices. They're getting a lot. The head of the apps or Phil Schiller will get an observer seat for free. According to Bloomberg, it means a non-voting role, but still influential. Microsoft got its non-voting board seat back in November following Sam Altman's ouster and return as CEO. Well, just like we said, they're getting what they want without having to because of their distribution. So is there just a general thing about governance? You know,, say it's a non-voting, there's no such thing as a non-voting board seats because just a quick, it never comes, that's seen

a succession where they went around the table and voted and they barely won. That never happens. I have never seen, I've been on a lot of boards. I've never seen anything come down to a vote where if it's clear you don't have unanimity, they'll go to a proxified or there's a lot of meetings in the parking lot. It never comes down to a vote. And the reality is whoever has the... Phil Schiller, other than Satya Nadella, who is also not in the room, and Sam, he will have the biggest voice in the room. who is also not in the room.

And Sam, he will have the biggest voice in the room. So this notion that it's just an observer seat, it's bullshit. They're in the room and not only that, I don't like it quite frankly, because I think Apple has too much sway and influence over the economics of the app ecosystem. And as a result, a lot of companies can't get out of the crib or can never get very far.

And I just hate the idea of Apple being at the table of OpenAI and Spotify isn't. I mean, I just. Yeah, I agree. I don't think Microsoft or Apple should be on this board. I get that. Microsoft is because of the investment. But boy, that's just not so much. I would agree with you.

I would agree with you. Moving on from giant companies, one year anniversary of Threads, the social media app launched on July 5th of last year as an alternative to X. Mark Zuckerberg announced that Threads is now more than 175 million active, monthly active users from some perspective. The first hundred million jumped on in the first three months. The app does benefit from promotion within Instagram. Declare Break Things Threads could be Meta's next billion-dollar app, according to The Verge, even though it's still a loss leader. I don't think it's that big a deal for them, do you?

I don't know. You go on this, Kara. I like it. I have to say it's becoming really unpleasant right now, but I like it for a lot of reasons. It's a text version of Instagram and I like text better than, and there's a lot of videos. It's very pleasant. I keep thinking I'm going to get away from all of social media more and more because it's just not useful in any way, except for me watching how to grow succulents or cook a really interesting dish from Laos. That's the kind of stuff I'm interested in now. But it's a waste of my time at this point, I think. So I don't know. I don't know. I think they need to put ads on it, I guess, if they want to make money. They said they deprioritize politics, but it seems to be all politics right now. So I don't know. It's a hugely successful product launch.

I mean, I was an investor in Post. There was Mastodon. There was immediately a bunch of competitors because they saw an opening around Twitter self-inflicted injury. Zuckerberg came along and kind of owned, now firmly owns the number two microblogging platform. The thing that I think is kind of a shame is it feels- I think Stapp is bigger, but go ahead. Is that considered microblogging? Yeah Yeah. The thing that I think is kind of a shame is it feels- I think Snap is bigger, but go ahead. Is that considered microblogging? Yeah, I guess.

Anyways. So look, the thing that sort of saddens me about it is it seems to be coming as angry and as vile. Yeah. The reason I left Twitter was, I don't mind if someone pushes back and says, you're wrong and this is why you're wrong, and here's my evidence and argument. What do you think?

And wants to engage in a dialogue? Fine. I'm all over it. But a bunch of bots or people who feel that they can say things they would never say in person because they're on a digital platform, and it just creating, putting more flame on the fuels of divisiveness and polarization when the reality is the majority of the people, it's like we agree, Threads, first off, Threads is very, very, at least my following, it is very, very left. Yeah, very. And, okay, that's fine.

But what I would say to these people is, And, okay, that's fine. But what I would say to these people is, I'm next to you firing at the enemy of fascism and gender apartheid and denying women bodily. We're allies. Yeah. And you fucking hate me and are screaming in my ear and cursing because you think I'm holding the rifle wrong. We're allies, for God's sake. Stop it. I agree.

I agree. And Thread. Stop it. I agree. Threads started out, I think, and I sense a sea change. I don't know, maybe I'm being overly dramatic or sensitive here, but it started out by saying, we're going to be just a little nicer to each other. This isn't Twitter. And it feels like it's becoming

more Twitter-ish. It's centered around the bend. It makes me love LinkedIn even more. Honestly. There's so much time on LinkedIn. LinkedIn! LinkedIn! As my mother calls it.

I love LinkedIn. All right, Scott. Well, good luck, Mark Zuckerberg. And I really liked your video of you waveboarding. It was stupid, but I liked it. Yeah, depress our teens, weaponize democracy. Yeah, I know. And teen harm.

Bitch, you should never hold a flag. Oh, I know the whole thing. All right, Scott. We're sounding so grumpy today. One more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails. Okay, Scott, we're back. Let's hear some wins and fails. You go first today. Well, we've talked about our fail. Don't mistake your ally for your enemies. And this is a political party, not a suicide pact. And we all want the same thing, at least those of us who consider themselves proud progressives. This really is an existential moment. We can't have one in five women who want to terminate a pregnancy have to leave their state. We can't have essentially a mob boss running the country. We can't have someone who stirs our emotions against immigrants and demonizes people. We can't have someone that foreign leaders think is an idiot and are willing to take advantage of him because he can't stay focused on anything. him because he can't stay focused on anything. We can't have this slow kind of burn into fascism.

And we're all united around that, and we all want that. So the notion that this shouldn't be open for debate, and that somehow you are the enemy, if you even raise the prospect of an open primary or an open convention, excuse me. I mean, people have accused me of playing into their hands. No, we are playing into their hands when we start insulting each other and disliking each other, despite the fact we're each other's allies. And that is a larger metaphor for what is happening in America. Your Republican neighbor is not your enemy. You can have a civil conversation with them and you're going to find out you share more than you think. And it's happening. What is happening to America is now happening on social media. Social media absolutely fuels it. And I have seen it in spades over the last eight days where people I know and I like and I trust and I think are good people are just enraged that you bring this shit up. And it's like, come on, we're on the same side here. We're talking anyways, we need to don't mistake your allies, your enemies. That's my fail. My win is I had Admiral Stavridis on the Prop G pod, and he said something I thought was really moving. He said in the last two years,

or last year and a half, 2 billion people have voted in elections. And he said, that's just such an incredible victory for democracy. And it's really interesting what has happened. And he's pointed out some interesting things. Kind of the incumbent parties in India and South Africa have both had their power severely checked. In France, they said, the Democrats or the progressives there got their shit together and said, okay, hey, far left, why don't you get rid of your weaker candidates,

consolidate around stronger candidates such that we can ensure that we don't have a hard move to the right. And they changed the complexion of everything. In the UK, really they have won from the center. The Labor Party, I think the victory reflects that they rejected the far, far left and the far, far right. So there's this nice leftward, moderate breeze coming over the Atlantic, I'm hoping, from Europe.

It's very—in Mexico, they elected a woman, a Jew, who's a climate scientist. And I get a ton of hate. People are saying there's a lot, people have a lot of issues with her for a lot of different reasons. But still, it is a seminal moment for Mexico. And all of this is because people's voices around the world have been heard. And there's actually some very encouraging signs. So in sum, my win is 2 billion people voting. Yeah, I would agree.

I think my win is, we were just talking about donors and putting their money to use in smart ways. Reid Hoffman just made a multimillion-dollar investment in the voting tech company Smartmatic, which is still in a lawsuit with Fox News, a $2.7 billion defamation suit, and also suing Newsmax at the same time. I think Reid invested in E. Gene Carroll's case. He backed that. He's funding the places that make sense. This will hurt Fox News quite badly. I think he's a very deft investor in smart ways,

and he's very emotional about it. He doesn't call anyone a bedwetter. He just goes to work and does investments like this. I thought that was a really smart one when I saw it. I was like, oh, isn't he clever? And he'll probably get money back because I think they'll lose just the way Dominion won their case. I think Fox News will lose and he will do well with this investment. But he noted, let me say, there's been a, this is what he said. Matic has built global business by using technology to better engage citizens, regardless of party ideology, by making voting simple and trustworthy after Donald Trump lost in 2020. However, smart Matic became the target of the defamatory campaign to overturn his defeat. I just think it's smart. I just really appreciate that quite a bit. And I just think it's the right thing to do.

And I just appreciate it. And, of course, the negative I think I share with Scott is, oh, the other positive is New York Times has a new game called Strands that I really like. Once again, Meredith Levy and go for it. It's a really fun game. Just go play it, try it, see if you like it. I love that they keep me engaged on that platform in lots of interesting, unusual ways. In any case, the negative is the same thing that Scott says, is you can have differences of opinion about the strategy of how to move forward and still be on the same team. But to call people bedwetters and try to shame them into not having concerns and lecture them on that they don't understand the stakes is really insulting. And it takes people away from you. It makes them unenthusiastic to support something. And it just it makes people turn things off rather than turn things on. You want people to be very excited. And the fact of the matter is Biden should be sweeping the floor with this guy because he's such a terrible person. And by the way, he's already moderating. He's already pushing for quieter expressions on

abortion and gay rights, gay same-sex marriage on the platforms. He knows that he has to moderate to the center. And so don't count Donald Trump out in his ability to seem calmer than he is. He's a terrible person. We do understand the threat he has. And, you know, you're literally shooting your own troops. And I don't know why you think that's helpful. And shutting up is not going to make it go away. Anyway, I think that's it, Scott.

That's the show. Scott and I agree on this. We're really irritated. Go Spain. Go Spain. Spain versus France tomorrow. Big game. Allianz.

We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. That's the show. We'll be back Friday for more. Scott, read us out. Today's show is produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Christine Driscoll. Ernie and her Todd entered in this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Mille Severio.

Nishat Karoua is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business care. Have a great rest of the week.