Pivot - Big banks' quarterly earnings and economic recovery, and a prediction on space SPACs

Episode Date: July 16, 2021

Kara and Scott talk what the big banks' quarterly earnings can tell us about economic recovery. They also discuss Senate Democrats' $3.5 trillion budget deal. In listener mail, we get a question about Apple and the niche search market. Scott has a prediction about space SPACs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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How's it going there? Yeah, that's fine. You're sending pictures that are fascinating on the internet, as I've noticed, on the Twitter. I'm with family, so it's pretty awful. And look, Iceland makes me hate the outdoors less and less. It's stunning here. It's stunning. It is beautiful.

And it's all right there for you. Yeah, good. We have a lot to talk about. Like, get back off the Iceland thing. We're in America now, so we have a lot to talk about. Okay, sorry. So, a couple of things. A couple of things.

I'm not even going to go into all the Trump books. I hope you're ignoring them. There's like 53 Trump books and apparently he's into coup, but now he's saying he's not into coup and all kinds of stuff. He's like, if I were to do it, he's on coup. He's on coup.

Anyway. So there's a lot of Trump books, let me just say, and these people are all over the airwaves. And one thing is one revelation. It's like,aves. And one thing, it's one revelation. It's like, it's insurrection, it's resistance porn. I don't know what else to say. That's what it is.

You know what I mean? Like, there's a lot of stuff. And we'll see, you know, he's denying it, this and back and forth, but there's a lot of books out. Michael Wolff, the two reporters from the Washington Post, there's going to be a ton more coming. One from the Wall Street Journal. And, you know, anyway, it goes on and on and on. There's a lot. There's a lot going on here in the Washington Post. There's going to be a ton more coming. One from the Wall Street Journal. And, you know, anyway, it goes on and on and on. There's a lot.

There's a lot going on here in the Trump world. I finally. We can't quit him. We just can't quit him. It's like sports for me and Trump. I love not thinking about either of those things. Well, good. You don't have to.

I felt like in order at some point, like at the age of 40, I'm like, to be a man, I don't have to think about sports all the time. And I love not letting Orange Hitler live in my brain rent-free. I literally enjoy just not talking about him and not thinking about him. If you're thinking Orange Hitler, then don't look, see what the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff thought about him. In any case, the Fourth Reich, apparently. So, let's go into things that are meaningless, like Twitter shutting down fleets on August 3rd. It's the thing they launched. I didn't know it had ever launched.

Did you use it? I never used it. It was like a version of Instagram, I guess. I don't know, fleets. No, I think it was Snap. I think it was meant to be ephemeral. It's interesting because all of these platforms develop sort of a brand halo.

And so for example, Amazon couldn't figure out auctions because auctions was so inextricably linked to ebay's brand yeah you know it's it's interesting that these guys a lot of times their brand just doesn't support a certain consumer behavior yeah and twitter i think it was the right strategy if i'd been on the board of twitter and the product development group i'm like yeah let's try fleets i think it's good they try I also think, and I'm critical of Twitter a lot. That's a very kind thing for you to say. I'm feeling Icelandic.

I feel that. Like, because you usually be like, what a bunch of idiots. Once again, a dumb alley. A dumb alley, they moved down. Just put some cod oil on that fleet. All right. No, but I think what I was just going to say is, I think one of the keys to being an innovator,

and this is where small companies and what these guys are really good at, is they are willing to perform infanticide. And I love it when I see a company after six or eight months, although Twitter did decide to kill TikTok called Vine. But a lot of big companies enter into one of the most dangerous things that happens to big companies. They don't have the same amount of capital. They're not as agile. things that happens to big companies. They don't have the same amount of capital. They're not as agile. They come up with a new cool product, and then they all enter into a consensual hallucination that it's working regardless of the metrics. And they refuse to kill it. And for every mouth you have to feed, it means you can't do something else. So I actually like it when companies say

this isn't working and they kill it. Interesting. Speaking of moving into things, Netflix, which also announced it's hiring a podcast person, but they're mostly doing it for marketing of their shows. So I don't think we're in trouble yet. But they're expanding into gaming. Bloomberg reports the company hired Mike Verdue, who I know a little bit, as the vice president of game development. He was working over on content at Facebook,

which is interesting, augmented reality and virtual reality content. A really interesting fella. What do you think about this? I mean, they've already done some gaming element things with Carmen Santiago, some other things. Gaming. This is big. I mean, there's just no getting around

it. If you think about the most valuable companies in the world have essentially become the operating systems for our digital life. And they're all in a battle, a game of thrones, to see which operating system can command more attention of the most valuable consumers. And the two operating systems and the first and third most valuable companies in the world are the operating systems for our mobile handsets.

But the operating system for the second most important device, the TV, is becoming Netflix. And so Netflix's ability in marketing or product expansion, you either expand vertically, and that is the gap goes after metrosexuals, and it goes after hip, fashion-forward, urban teens with a gap, and then it goes after single mothers or people who want 80% of gap for 50% of the price. But it's all designed and merchandised and supported casual apparel. They go vertical just across different cohorts. And then another means of product expansion is you serve the same cohort with different products. And that's what Microsoft has done, right? Games, productivity tools, but all sold into the same person. And Netflix is taking advantage of the fact that the operating system for the television,

it's just so interesting that no TV manufacturer has been able to elbow out these guys. And they've given up custody to consume them. They tried for a little bit there. Samsung had its thing. They all had it. They all had it. Yeah. Yeah.

Remember they did? They just were impossible to use. I mean, this raises so many interesting issues. What are they going to do around consoles? What's going to happen when they violate Apple's terms of conditions in the App Store? But Netflix, when you think about the IP here, the Witcher, I mean, they have some incredible games, incredible content that are already games. And then they can start putting on your recommendation screen,

which I think is one of the most powerful algorithms in the world. I think the podcast thing was also important. They're going to market. They've already done things around the crown. And I've listened to a couple of their podcasts. I liked a couple of their shows, and I listened to the Crown one or whatever. There was a bunch of them. They did a nice job.

I know they're marketing, but I want more content on those things I watch as their content. It's really interesting. I like that they're not like deciding to be Gimlet or Spotify. They're just going to do stuff related to their products to help sell their products.

I kind of like it. You know, what's interesting, and I'd love your thought on this very quickly, is that Netflix is not really expanding to news still. They's interesting, and I love your thought on this very quickly, is that Netflix is not really expanding to news still. They're still not doing news and live anything. But I think their ability is around storytelling and the ability to gather incredible talent and create these really compelling stories where you want to go to the second, the third, the fourth episode, do you really want to binge news? I mean, you can.

Yeah. But eventually it'll happen. Eventually, all of them, I think all of them, whether it's Apple or Hulu or Netflix, are eventually going to go to news and politics because it's kind of the final frontier. It is. What's interesting is that- It has to be a different twist. It has to be.

Yeah. Yeah. It'll be weekly. It'll be more John Oliver-esque, kind of entertainment news, if you will. But watch out. CNN is launching their CNN Plus in January, which I'm excited about. They are. All right.

On to the big stories. The big banks have reported their second quarterly earnings and results point to a strong economic recovery. Both Citigroup and J.P. Morgan attribute their massive profits to consumer spending, which has surpassed, not a surprise, pre-pandemic levels. J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said consumers are raring to go, his exact words on the earnings call, where the house value is up, their stock value is up, their incomes are up, their savings are up, their confidence is up. Dealmaking fees have also increased, obviously. At J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg reported that Morgan Stanley stocked up 35% this year. Scott, tell me, I'm not the finance person, but what do you think? It's great to be in banking. I mean, M&A transaction fees are up, asset management fees are up because people's worth has gone up exponentially. So they're trading more. They can charge more.

I mean, it's just a great time to be an investment bank. I thought the most significant thing that happened this week, and I was shocked that banks didn't or their stocks didn't react to it, was America supposedly or the government is supposedly seriously considering a U.S.-backed digital currency. Yeah. And if a U.S.-backed digital currency came out, it would literally disrupt

banking in terms of fees and transaction. Because what banks have done a great job of is creating a lot of friction under the auspices of safety or covering their own ass so they can charge all kinds of useless fees to send money to London. I mean, I just don't get why it's so expensive and so hard, whether it's a mortgage, whether it's transferring money, whether it's ATM, whether it's overdraft, their ability to kind of get in the middle and slow things down under the auspices of regulatory arbitrage or negative arbitrage. Anyways, I think a digital currency is the biggest threat to banks. But right now, it's great to be a banker. I mean, Goldman and JP Morgan both blew away their earnings.

Also, the housing market, red hot now. Now it's calming down for August, but I sold my house in 14 seconds that I couldn't sell in March. I was trying to sell a house. I used it for an office instead, but then it's not a big house, but I sold it in literally 14 seconds. It was crazy.

And it was just like that. I didn't, you know, it was fascinating because it was so slow just only so much ago. Wells Fargo and JP Morgan extended more mortgages this quarter compared to last. You know, that's another thing. And the story in the Times, which I think we look good at, is that everyone's moving back to San Francisco or the slash cities and things like that. So, it's kind of interesting too. You know, we had predicted that everyone making this a big trend, that everyone's going to be living in Omaha because it's so much nicer here and we have a yard, did not, it's not necessarily, it's a mixed bag, but it's certainly not the kind of thing.

You said people would move back, and that's a lot of the story in the Times said exactly that. I need to see people in the city. A lot of the quotes were what you talked about with young people. I mean, it's obviously situational, and I think San Francisco, I've always said San Francisco is like American health care and that is expensive but bad. I think San Francisco is just not a great value proposition as a product anymore. But show me someone who's on Twitter talking about how they just couldn't stand San Francisco governance and lifestyle. And I'll show you someone who is so full of shit who's sitting on top of a huge capital gain because of some shitty SPAC they managed to get out and has decided to peace out and not pay back into the system they benefited from. Anyone on Twitter who complains

about California government and is a venture capitalist and operator, they haven't moved to Michigan. They haven't moved to places with better governance. They've all moved to places they can register a capital gain at zero cost. It's all such a head fake. Granted, San Francisco has problems, but these problems have kind of been there for a while. And this notion that all of a sudden— They've gotten worse. But this housing market is interesting.

It's rent-hung. It's back in the cities. I was sort of shocked by the quickness of the house sale. And I think it's really— it's just interesting to me. It's interesting to like that these, the people bounce back this way, like they're spending again, people are feeling kind. At the same time, this Delta variant is all over the place.

The state of Tennessee is like decided it doesn't believe in science again. And, you know, we're back to the Scopes trial or whatever. And it's really interesting that certain jurisdictions are going to just boom, especially the ones that are vaccinated. And we'll see if it creates across the country, but it's still fascinating what's happening in terms of- I don't know. I'm going to get shit for this, but isn't it just natural selection? Isn't it just stupid people prone to conspiracy theory are going to put themselves at greater risk.

Isn't there a correlation between Fox viewers, conspiracy theory, low IQ, and these regions that have decided to totally ignore science, ignore truth? Why not make the economic argument to them? It's crazy. My mom is interesting. I had a very actually good discussion about my Fox 11 mom today where she started attacking Dr.ci again, because that's what they're doing on Fox. And masks, this mask mandate, I said, you know, like, they're also, Fox is going against vaccinations. She goes, well, that's not right. And I said, you got to pick a frigging lane. You can't not take a vaccination and also decide mask sucks. Like, and you can't then tell your public health officials in your state that

they can't say the truth, like which happened in Tennessee, again, the Scopes trial once again, like, right, which took place in Tennessee. But then she was like, you're right. You have to pick a lane. Like I said, this is not about, like, stop. And it was interesting. It's about economics. There is a valid argument that people on the right have made about the importance of taking what I'd call measured risk around opening sooner rather than later. A hundred percent. And that we on the left immediately have a knee-jerk reaction that any talk of opening is not progressive and not thoughtful.

No, as a matter of fact, and this was probably the most underreported news story this week, we have had a massive acceleration in opioid overdoses again. And we had finally started to turn the corner. We had finally started to see a reduction. And they were up to – they hit a new record last year, 93,000. There are prices, 100%. And there are deaths of despair when you shut people in, when you make them isolate. That is a real argument we need to have between the left and the right. Agreed.

But the argument over creating pockets of poverty, not only economic poverty, but vaccine poverty, because they all talk each other into believing that vaccines are bad. It's their right not to take a vaccine. It is your right not to take a vaccine. But guess what? France isn't going to let you. What was really interesting is Macron makes an announcement. They have to have these vaccine passports. I forget what they call them.

Macron. Your handsome man. And then a million people signed up the next day. That's just all it took. Like, Americans just want to shoot themselves in the foot. Say that again, Cara? So, he said they had to have the passports. You have to prove your, if you want to go to their cafes and their other things, you have to have a vaccine passport.

A million people signed up. The numbers went up considerably the minute he said you have to. Our friend Stephanie Ruhl called me the other night and she's like, how can the government be giving all this money to people and not be asking them to get vaccinated? I'm like, I'm with you, sister. I don't understand why we don't have a vaccine passport. I can't for the life of me. It's the wrong word. All these companies that took money. It's the wrong word. You got to have another word, sister. I don't understand why we don't have a vaccine pass. I can't for the life of me. It's the wrong word. It's the wrong word.

You got to have another word besides passport. I don't know why. You don't like passport? No, because I think it makes me. Really? You know, because a lot of people don't travel that much. Like, I think it's got to have another word. It's got to have something, a license, whatever.

Because we get licenses. I don't know. Let me ask you one last thing for this section. Surge in deal fees, by the way. SPACs. SPACs, SPACs, SPACs everywhere. There's a SPAC everywhere. The SEC is investigating banks over conflicts of interest in the SPAC deal-making process.

So, anyway, nonetheless, SPACs are backs. Are backs. SPACs are backs. Yeah, whatever. What do you think about that? All these people going public. Well, look, we had a dearth of public companies. A number of public companies have been reduced by two-thirds because of M&A and because private

market investors decided they wanted to capture more of the gains. A few fewer companies were going public and because of monopoly and lack of competition. So I think it's a good thing that they're accelerating and there's more public companies giving more people opportunities. The reality is SPACs have underperformed over the medium and long term. They overperformed last year. But a lot, I think a lot of these, I mean, already we're already seeing a pullback about, I think, about half the SPACs. Yeah, about half the SPACs.

And that's where they're getting in trouble is the disclosure. It's basically a way of kind of skirting or short-circuiting the disclosures. And the SEC is saying maybe that's a bad idea. So, I think there's going to be additional scrutiny on SPACs. I think they're a good thing. Yeah. Yeah. We'll be talking a lot about the SEC, perhaps a code. I'm not going to say why. Anyway, let's go on a quick break and come back to talk about the Senate Democrats, $3.5 trillion budget budget and a listener mail question. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle.

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and we all need to work together to protect each other. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash Zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. You know what's not easy? Marketing. And when you're starting your small business, while you're so focused on the day-to-day, the personnel, and the finances, marketing is the last thing on your mind. But if customers don't know about you, the rest of it doesn't really matter. Luckily, there's Constant Contact. Constant Contact's award-winning marketing platform can help your businesses stand out, stay top of mind, and see big results. Sell more, raise more, and build more genuine relationships with your audience through a suite of digital marketing tools made to fast-track your growth. With Constant Contact, you can get email marketing that helps you create and send the perfect email to every customer, create and send the perfect email to every customer and create, promote, and manage your events with ease all in one place. Get all the automation, integration, and reporting tools

that get your marketing running seamlessly. All backed by Constant Contact's expert live customer support. Ready, set, grow. Go to constantcontact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial. ConstantContact.ca. Okay, welcome back. Senate Democrats came to an agreement on a $3.5 trillion budget deal that supports President Biden's economic agenda. Obviously, it's the stuff that they pulled out of the infrastructure bill, some of it. It is, it's a lot. Like, I've decided, like, can you just do individual, even I was like, hey, maybe just a few bills rather than one, putting everything in the kitchen sink here. It has social environmental programs, extended child tax credits, the carbon tariff, universal pre-K, expanded Medicare benefits. The spending package also includes protecting the Right to Organize Act. The PRO Act largely impacts who and who cannot be classified as gig workers as those who do not receive employer benefits and labor

protections. The act also makes it easier to form a union and blocks employers from permanently replacing employees who participate in strikes. Senator Joe Manchin expressed concerns of the package impacts on inflation and the climate change provisions he believes would eliminate fossil fuels. By the way, Europe's moving that direction. They just were flooded this week and, of course, have passed all kinds of anti-fossil fuel bills. The Democrats need every senator on board since zero support from the GOP is expected. I saw interviews with Lisa Murkowski and Mitt Romney, who are usually pretty reasonable, and they were like, no frigging way this is going through. And I have to say, I was like, hey, guys, this is making me cough a little bit.

What do you think? I thought it was really interesting. I'm really hopeful. I hope it gets to 50. I mean, I think Joe Manchin just loves being like that. Yeah, he does. The swing vote. I think he's lost some weight.

I think he's got a new haircut, too. But go ahead. Yeah, he's probably. Next thing, he's probably going into space. I don't even know. Hey, Richard Branson got back safely. It's just knock on wood. Good for him.

So, what do you think? Well, this is a lot of money. A lot of money for stuff, especially tech-related stuff. Climate change stuff. Climate change stuff. You know, all kinds of things. The stuff around the gig. Climate change stuff, climate change stuff, you know, all kinds of things. I've infrastructure. And we've decided, and I think this is probably makes sense, that infrastructure includes investments in humans, right? That child care is part of infrastructure or child tax credit

is part of an infrastructure bill. But this is, I mean, this is a pretty consequential bill. I don't think there's anything getting around it. I think that it's really weird sort of, in some ways we've gotten so conservative, but it's hard to argue that this isn't um a much bigger sort of government um this is big government and it reaches back and it's not gonna pass this ain't gonna pass you don't think so no it'll be like the the infrastructure well you did a party in D.C., you know. Listen to me. There was a big, swingy hit, but no.

But no. Say more. Why don't you think it's going to pass? Because I think even in good times when people had more people, you know, they had control of the Senate now in a more significant way, it's a lot of money. Is it a starting point? Yes, of course. Yes. I just, it was interesting. Biden was up on Capitol Hill.

starting point? Yes, of course. Yes. I just, it was interesting. Biden was up on Capitol Hill. You know, they, this, I think these ambitious climate plans are interesting, but they're not as ambitious as EU and China. I mean, EU has been hit by these floods and they passed sort of really essentially anti-fossil fuel bills. That's not going to happen in this country, not with coal and oil, not with Venner Mansion, with coal in West Virginia. So, you know, I think, and then the worries about inflation, different economists say different things. Like, you get a different inflation story from them, but it's at its highest level since 2008. Well, even, I mean, you want to talk about trying to slip stuff in.

And I'm a big fan of this, but I don't know if it should be part of this bill. Part of the bill is amnesty for millions of, you know, dreamers, TPS, essential workers, farm workers. And that's, does that belong in an infrastructure bill? Well, I think they're trying to like shove everything through because they can't get it through. I mean, yes, that's what I kept thinking. I'm like, this is 16 bills, just so you know.

And they can't do those anymore. They can't do those anymore, which is interesting. Anyway, we'll see. I think the climate change is the most interesting stuff here, and I think they'll be pulling it out. But, you know, the fact that the other countries have moved very significantly on this, and of course, this is a promise by Biden, it's going to be an interesting uphill battle at this point, given the numbers that exist in terms of voting and things like that. But I'll tell you, it's ambitious. Like, as you said, the Biden administration wants to do everything.

So, I think they know they have time is not on their side. And I think it'll be a tough row. I would say it'll be a tough row. We'll see where it goes. I think we're going to see a lot of Senator Manchin on TV. That's what we're going to see. Senator Manchin. Yeah, he'll say, well, I'm the reluctant bride.

I think he kind of likes the attention. No, no. Stephanie's friends with Justice, the West Virginia governor. That's her pal. Who she yells at and then he keeps coming back on her show. Whatever that's about. Anyway, let's pivot to a listener question. Roll tape. You've got, you've got, I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've got mail. I'm a writer in the real estate and technology space, hailing from Michigan. You've both made predictions around Apple getting into search,

but you don't seem to acknowledge that they're already there via the Apple App Store. You've both waxed poetic about Amazon being in the search game via their marketplace, so how is it that the same standard isn't applied to Apple? To suggest that search only happens in broad terms ignores the power and potency of niche search. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the importance of niche search, how it can compete, and what, if any, verticals are primed for a breakout of niche search engines. Love the show. Keep up the good work. Kara, you must acknowledge. You must acknowledge what search is. Chris.

Acknowledge the search. Chris, I love the attitude. I think you're obnoxious about this, but I think- Tell me he didn't record that 11 times. I love Chris. I decided I love Chris. I like him. He's like, he's comes in, he's like chest out.

This is what he's doing. He's chesting out. He's chesting at us. That's what he's doing. But you're in Iceland now, so you're a little softer. That's why I like Chris here. So Apple getting into search. Yes, of But you're in Iceland now, so you're a little softer. That's why I like Chris here. So, Apple getting into search. Yes, of course, they're in search, of course.

We were mentioning Amazon because it's the most obvious and largest example of it is that you search Amazon. We can't mention all of them. We can't mention all of them, Chris, but we shall. Apple, of course, the Apple App Store is a search thing. You have to search it and find things. Not quite the same thing, and it is a niche search. Pinterest is a search service, you know what I mean? Like, you search a lot on Pinterest and looking for, you know,

for example, Scott is always looking for smoother marble counters, for example. He's always sort of looking for different things. And turtlenecks, perhaps. Soapstone, soapstone. And so, I think there's lots of different things in search that are sort of chipping away at the Google hegemony. But Google still is the most important search engine.

What other search areas do you think of? Peloton's kind of search. There was an interesting story about Peloton paying out more money to artists with their music stuff than Spotify, which I thought was fascinating. Isn't that crazy? I saw that. There's a lot of interesting things. What other niche searches do you see? I don't know.

I spend an hour a day searching for stuff on Netflix. I mean, maybe that's just poor UI, but you're right. The second largest search engine in the world isn't Bing. It's Amazon. So, look, here's the thing. Search, there is no business in history that has over $100 billion and has one player with more than 50% share, much less search, which right now is $153 billion market, has one

player that controls 93%, and it's growing 24% a year. So you're going to see verticals. You're going to see niches in just for real estate. You're going to see search engines, because I think a lot of the technology is being somewhat commodified. Do you know there are three times as many people at Google working on selling keywords than there are actually working on the underlying technology of search? That blew my mind. Anyways, I think search is going to be this massive evolutionary explosion of species over the next five or 10 years. So I want to be the first to say I am acknowledging Chris's point. Chris, we acknowledge you. We acknowledge you, good sir, from Michigan.

We seem to acknowledge you as opposed to us not seeming to. All right, so name your top search places. I'm going to name mine first. Twitter, 100%. I never search Twitter. I don't know how. I search Twitter all the time for news. I do, yeah, 100 people or different trends and stuff like that. So I search Twitter all the time for news. I do, yeah. A hundred people or different trends and stuff like that.

So, I search Twitter a lot. I search Amazon a lot. And I search, hmm, where else do I search? It's not Google. I'm trying to do not Google. I mean, I search Google Maps, but that's Google. Hmm. I guess I'm just trying to think.

Where else do I search? That's it. That's it. What about you? You porn. Is that it? Oh, porn. Oh, Netflix Where else do I search? That's it. That's it. What about you? YouPorn. Is that it? Oh, YouPorn. Oh, Netflix.

Yeah, I search Netflix. You're right. I search Netflix. Amazon, a lot of search on Amazon. But mostly, I just type stuff into the URL or whatever you call it, the address bar. And now I've downloaded Neva. It's interesting. You get different search results on a subscription search engine.

I'm kind of fascinated with it. It's such as. Explain. Say what you think. It just seems, it's just interesting that you don't get, because it's not paid, ads aren't paid, you get more kind of wonky responses, which I like. And you don't get as many what I'll call commercial responses that people are paying for. And some of the commercial responses you like because you want to buy stuff. Yeah.

But it's just weird. It's a different animal. It's like changing operating systems. It took a little while for me to get used to. But that's a really interesting question. How do we... Just so people know, Scott invests in Neva. And I know she does really well.

Full disclosure. Yeah. Is it niche, though, or is it trying to be a bigger thing? Subscription? No, I think subscription search, well, I guess technically everything's a niche now compared to being as niche compared to Google. But, yeah, that's such an interesting question. I wish I had a more thoughtful answer of what role.

I search LinkedIn a decent amount. Do you? What, for what? What are you looking for, a job? No, Section 4, we've gone from 40 to 80 people. We're constantly, constantly trying to find people. Oh, interesting. And I think it's interesting.

And I love LinkedIn. I think LinkedIn has kind of got the vibe of what's so, the promise of social is on LinkedIn. I think people are really civil to each other. I think it's mostly because of identity and also everyone's thinking maybe I can get a job from that person at some point in my life. Yes, yes. Everyone's much nicer and much more supportive. each other. I think it's mostly because of identity and also everyone's thinking maybe I can get a job from that person at some point in my life. Everyone's much nicer and much more supportive. It's like the other white meat, the other social network. That's my favorite tagline in history. The pork, the other white

meat. From James Garner, who just had a triple bypass, and Sybil Shepard, who was a vegan at the time. She was a spokesperson for the American Beef Council. I love that. Catch that check. Sybil Shepard. Where's she? You know, I had met her.

She was... Really? Tell me she's nice. Tell me she's nice. She's so saucy. She's a saucy... She's very nice, but saucy. Like, a lot.

There's a lot going on there. Let me just say, she was on The L Word when I was visiting the set. Really? I met her. Sybil. She played a lesbian.

She was a mother of a lesbian. That would make sense. I don't remember the plot. That would make sense. She played a mother of a lesbian. That would make sense. I don't remember the plot. That would make sense. She played a mother of a lesbian who then became a lesbian in the show. So she was doing a little lesbian action, as I recall. I just don't even remember. Nonetheless, she was lovely and saucy is all I remember.

The one who was really saucy was Holland Taylor. Who's that? She's an actress. If you saw her, you'd be like, oh, her. She actually goes out with the woman. Oh, I know her. Doesn't she date like Tilda Swinton or something? No, no.

What's her name? I'm going to blank on things. Yes, it's all the lesbians. It's not Tilda Swinton. By the way, there's a really great meme on the internet right now. Wait, Rachel Maddow. Am I just throwing out lesbians left and right? No, just stop trying to ask me that.

Assuming they all date each other. I'm going to hear about that. They don't. You are, but that's okay. You don't need to know all your lesbians. I can make a list for you if you like. I would like that. Would you like?

Who is your favorite among lesbians besides me? You know what? I am so not going to go there. My limited capability to protect myself my limited good judgment says don't start listing your favorite lesbians okay we should have

a search service for lesbians that's all I'm saying it's as she goes out with Sarah Paulson other than Lindsey Graham Holland Taylor goes out with Sarah Paulson

thank you I'm just giving you some lesbian information Sarah Paulson she's an actress she's on everything she's like so she's on everything

oh she's great she's great she's in everything she's fantastic she was in's like so she was she's oh she's great she's great she's great she was the one about um uh oh the uh everything about vice president yes she was she played nicole she's very talented she's wonderful she's really great yeah she's perfect she was in nurse ratchet that didn't do as well on netflix but nonetheless i think she's wonderful i saw it anyway we're gonna we love your question, Chris. Thank you.

It's an excellent question. Everybody's in search. We acknowledge you, Chris. We acknowledge you, Chris. We acknowledge you. And we love it. Anyway, Scott, one more quick break, and we'll be back for predictions. Do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere?

And you're making content that no one sees sees and it takes forever to build a campaign? Well, that's why we built HubSpot. It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere and you're making content that no one sees and it takes forever to build a campaign?

Well, that's why we built HubSpot. It's an AI powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Okay, Scott, predictions. Do you have have one mine's kind of lame uh i just that i that i predict

olivia olivia rodrigo might help set off some people getting vaccinations she you know when france just demands it she olivia rodrigo is the pop star the 18 year old pop star with the number one album in the country and uh she she she said vaccines are good for you, which is the name of her hit song. And, you know, I just like when they, I think they're going to try to, there's a lot of people at the White House thinking about how to get these groups of people to get vaccinated.

And, you know, they're trying to roll it out and drill it out quickly because of this Delta variant. But I thought it was a smart idea to pull her in to reach the young and unvaccinated. I think it was good. So I predict there'll be more of that. You'll see a lot more of that. And it's not going to be like Kid Rock and the pillow guy telling you not to get a vaccine because Bill Gates is trying to kill you, whatever.

It was so nice to see her walking into the White House versus the pillow guy. So anyway. Versus like Jethro Tull and Scott Baio. I know. You know what I mean? I was like, oh, the door of the pillow guy went in. Olivia and Rodrigo went in to do a message that's important. So, I predict there'll be more of that.

You're going to see a lot. The land of the people whose agent will not call them back. Yeah. I don't know how much other celebrities matter, but I think it's great. Go ahead. So my prediction is a little overdone, but I'm gonna make it anyways. I think Virgin Galactic is gonna be the poster child

for the SPAC and the space bubble. I think space exploration- Poster child, good or bad? Oh, bad. Oh, okay. I mean, do you realize, I mean, first off, there's just so much writing on the wall that this thing is not gonna work.

First off, as a strategy, I just think space tourism makes no sense. I think we put astronauts and equipment into rockets. I don't think we put tourists into rockets. But in addition, Chamath Palihapitiya, a very smart guy, sold his entire stake in March. And Richard Branson, by the way, has sold $800 million worth of stock in it to fund his other ventures. So two people who I think are very smart and know the company very well have both said, yeah, great, we're out. We're going to vote with our wallet and we're not voting for the company. And two,

something, do you realize since they took that flight last Sunday, the stock has lost a third of its value. And I think the reason why everyone's trying to figure out, well, is it because of the $500 million secondary? And I think it's because of the following. There was a clip of them once they were in space. And I think what they've pulled off is remarkable. The entire world saw this thing. I mean, that's just PR you can't dream of. Yeah, no. Okay. But what does it mean when 7 billion people, or call it 2 or 3 billion people, are exposed to your product and know this product is out there this is what it looks like it costs a quarter of a million

dollars and they've got a waiting list of 600 people i taught 1400 people last night 600 people is nothing so what they have here is the mother of all product market misfit nobody wants this fucking thing no one wants if 600 people want a product... If it was cheaper, you would. If you dropped the price, you would, right? Like, if it was $200, I bet you didn't, Scott. The capsule holds four people. How low can they take it? I'm just telling you if it's... That's true. I get it.

They can't. Who said that to us in their prediction? Space is expensive. Space is expensive. There's like billions of particles in every square foot on Earth. There's like one in space because space wants to destroy all life and all matter. That's why they call it space. Remember Caleb? Space wants to kill you.

But my prediction is within six months, you're going to see a pivot. They're going to start talking about point-to-point supersonic travel or space cargo. They do have a space cargo or space hauling division. But if you look at the stock, if you look at the very smart people who have sold their shares, if you look at the product market fit, if you look at the awareness and the anemic signup they have, people saw Richard Branson in space floating for two minutes and think, yeah, that's not worth 25,000, much less a quarter of a million. You know what I say? This is critical space theory. Critical space theory.

It's a joke on the internet. Oh, gosh. Critical space theory. Critical space theory. That's a joke on the internet. Critical space theory. Critical space theory. Sorry to make a joke on a ridiculous controversy. I've been doing it all week. The lame race. Yeah. The glazed race.

Yeah. I think you're right. I think the space tourism idea is correct. I think this is a lot of money. I think someone predicted this to us. It's a lot of money. It's expensive. Space wants to kill you.

And you're right. I think this is a great prediction. Why are you insulting your prediction? No, I'm just, it'll become a poster child for, it was one of the first SPACs. Chamath is kind of the king or the visionary around SPACs. He was involved here. But I just look at this thing, and I'm like, product market fit doesn't make any sense. Structurally doesn't make any sense. Their strategy doesn't make any sense. I just, I look at it and I go, okay, this thing is just, you know. Well, let me ask you one question. So, I asked it about how much would it cost for you to go on Facebook, you know, when we talked about that, like to be on their, whatever, their Substack version, Killer, whatever they're making.

Yeah. How much money would you pay to go into space? What was, what's the most you would pay you know to take a little trip around the light fantastic i i don't know it doesn't really appeal to me i'm i i get motion sickness i'm on planes way too much the only thing not wonderful about my life is not at all it's not i guess at some point if it's totally bulletproof, seeing the, supposedly you have

sort of a moment, a spiritual moment when you see Earth from the Kármán line. I would like to experience that. I can get 80% of that with edibles and not leave my couch.

And photos, yeah. Or, you know, I hate to say it, but like, I don't know, doesn't appeal to me. Does it appeal to you, Karen? No, at all.

I don't want to get in any spaceship, ever, ever, ever. I'm going to stick it out on this, at all. I don't want to get in any spaceship ever, ever, ever. I'm going to stick it out on this horrible little planet. That's what I'm doing. I'm staying on this ride. I like it here. Yeah, I like it here.

I don't want to go to the Karman line. I want to go to St. Bart's. It's beautiful. I'll tell you what it shows out, what you're talking about. It makes Elon Musk look smart because he has not dabbled in space tours in that much except around the edges. He's just sending up rockets and sending up payloads. He's hauling shit into space and making money. That's what he he's doing and eventually he'll haul stuff down minerals and things like that you know i think he's i think he's got the right take on this i think jeff bezos with these like super

cities in the sky i i like it i like it but you're like no like that kind of thing it's expensive yeah space wants to agree so anyways mr bjork the jork the jork, Mr. Bjork. Bjork. Bjork. Bjork. Bjork. Bjork. Mr. Galloway, we have your baggage. Did you watch the movie that's so funny about the Euro? Oh, it's so funny. Eurovision.

We've watched it three times. We can't stop watching that shit. It's so good. It's so good. By the way, Pierce Brosnan, a very handsome man. He is a very handsome man. He is a very handsome man. He is a very handsome man. He's a very handsome man. He is a very handsome man.

He's charming. And speaking of handsome men, who was that person you pretended was you with the poodle? That was, what's his name? The soccer player, right? Oh, Zidane Zidane. Yeah. One of the great soccer players in history. You're trying to ride on his good, that's a good looking version of you.

That's what that is. With a poodle. Well, a lot of people would say I'm a good looking version of him. No, not a lot of people. Not a lot of people. Zinedine Zidane. Yeah, that was aidane, one of the greatest football players in history. For a minute, I was like, what is Scott? Did he get work done?

When did he get a poodle? He has that big dog. I'm not about that. I know, that's fair. Give me the Zidane look. That's what I say to my dermatologist. Give me the Zidane look. You could get there.

Anyway, it was fascinating. Okay, don't forget if there's a story in the news you're curious about and want to hear our opinion on, just like Chris, go to and acknowledge. We will acknowledge something you say to us. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show. Scott, please read us out. Today's show is produced by Caroline Shagrin. Ernie Andretot engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows.

And for a limited time, you have a chance to fill out our listener survey. That's right. We want you to tell us how we're doing. Go to newyorkmag.com slash pivot survey and sound off. That's nymag.com slash pivot survey. Please take it. We do take it seriously. Make sure you're subscribed to the show on Apple Podcasts.

If you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify, frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from Box Media. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech. Number 21 for Juventus, a midfielder. Number 5 for Real Madrid, one of the greatest sportsmen in history. Not as sexy as the dog.

Not as sexy as the dog. See you next week. Thank you. performed by a select few. Well, Claude by Anthropic is AI for everyone. The latest model, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, offers groundbreaking intelligence at an everyday price. Claude Sonnet can generate code, help with writing, and reason through hard problems better than any model before. You can discover how Claude can transform your business at anthropic.com slash Claude.

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