Pivot - Big Tech military contracts, Compass's IPO, and President Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure plan
Episode Date: April 2, 2021In this episode of Pivot, Kara and Scott talk about Big Tech getting involved in military matters, and how their employees are responding. They also discuss whether Compass really counts as real estat...e tech, and fawn over President Biden's $2 trillion dollar infrastructure plan. Also, Kara plays a little April Fools joke on Scott, and spoiler alert—it works. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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I just don't get it.
Just wish someone could do the research on it.
Can we figure this out?
Hey, y'all.
I'm John Blenhill, and I'm hosting a new podcast at Vox called Explain It To Me.
Here's how it works. You call our hotline with questions you can't quite answer on your own.
We'll investigate and call you back to tell you what we found.
We'll bring you the answers you need every Wednesday starting September 18th. So follow Explain It To Me, presented by Klaviyo.
Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.
I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway.
Scott, you didn't work out this morning. You're complaining before we got on. You know, gun show is not in town today.
And it pushes Daddy, I need the exercise.
I need the norepinephrine.
I need to feel young.
What is your exercise routine for the people who might want to know, not me?
I do CrossFit four times a week for the last decade.
And I've worked out four times a week for the last 40 years.
It's not easy being a four on a scale of one to ten.
It takes real work.
Do you have like a coach at CrossFit
or do you have a gang of CrossFitters?
Oh my God, I got a coach.
I got a community.
I got a doctor who's prescribed me testosterone.
Oh, nice.
I've got a diet that's crazy.
I am coming down there.
Do I have to do this or can I sleep late in law
and eat donuts?
Oh, it's wonderful.
We do it outside.
It's wonderful.
You'll like it a lot.
I'm not doing CrossFit.
There's no way.
I once saw a bunch.
Well, I do old man CrossFit.
Which is what?
Which is what?
It's more like cross wimp.
I saw this bunch of Silicon Valley people in Manhattan Beach do it.
And they were like dragging pipes full of sand across the beach.
I found it ridiculous.
Yeah. like full of sand across the beach. I found it ridiculous. Yeah, I used to do it with a bunch of young people,
specifically lesbian firefighters and bartenders on HGH.
I could maybe do that.
I just could not compete.
I just could not compete.
So it got too intense for me, so now I do it.
So it was feats of strength.
You couldn't keep up with the lesbians, the lesbian firefighters.
They're tough.
On a lot of levels.
On a lot of levels, Kara.
They're a tough bunch of mothers.
No, but I'm being very serious here.
I am too.
When I wrote my book on happiness, I think really the – I'm very, very serious.
I struggle with anger and depression.
It's my antidepressant.
And also, the only thing I've ever found that is anything resembling a youth serum is exercise.
Yeah.
You're 100%.
I try to do it, but I, of course, never get to do it because I have so many children.
Speaking of children, do you know I adopted my daughter this week, officially?
I don't even know what that means.
Gay people are not automatically parents.
So, continue.
So, because of all kinds of things.
Well, it's a perversion, Carol.
It's a perversion.
If our maker had wanted two women to have a child.
All right.
When Clara was born in New York,
which I wasn't aware of
because you were allowed to do this in San Francisco,
if you're not married at the time,
and we got married soon after,
you do not get on the birth certificate.
And that is not the case in San Francisco.
That wasn't the case.
And so they literally walked in there like,
you can't be on the birth certificate.
It was such a shock because it was like being slapped back 20 years ago,
much like what's going on in Arkansas.
That sounds weird.
But now it's fixed, D.C.
Granted me parentage.
Parentage.
Whatever you call it.
Parental.
Do you want me to be the dad?
I've worked out four times a week.
No, you don't need a dad.
We're our own little family.
Do you want a little daddy on the birth certificate?
No, no. We have Kara little daddy on the birth certificate? No, no.
We have Kara Swisher on the birth certificate. If you give me any trouble, the lesbian firefighters
will be there to help you understand this thing.
I'll be the adopted
dad there. No, no, you cannot. She's a cutie.
She is a cutie. She's a sweetheart, too.
Anyway, that is what happened to me.
That is my happiness this week.
That's total bullshit that you even have to do that.
I didn't even know what you meant.
That seems so ridiculous.
Yes, it is ridiculous.
But here we are.
It was very expensive.
It was onerous.
And you have to, you know, adopt your own child, which is like, which we went in and had the kid with fully intention of having the kid together.
That's totally insane.
You should have seen the piles of legal documents that you sent for my other kids.
And is this because of the adoption end of it or because it's two women who are the parents?
I don't know.
You know what?
We're not presumed.
Even if you go into it with intent, you have to be now married.
And it's just the whole thing is so ridiculous that straight people take for granted every day of their lives.
And so it's a really it's an interesting situation.
And what was good, though, you see heartening things like the Department of Defense rolling back the trans rules that, bans that Trump put in place.
And all the DOD people were tweeting it out, which was great.
And they did all kinds of studies.
Of course, 20 plus countries have trans people serving in their military without any problem.
And we're back to them now, which is amazing.
It's just, it continues.
And the Arkansas thing, it just continues.
My son was shocked by that.
He was like, what?
You can't get treatment in Arkansas if they don't want to?
I was sort of like, yes.
Like, what do you want me to say?
Anyway, this is not meant to be a big giant gay rights rally,
but I'm very happy about adoption.
There is a, I think the thing that's been most,
I would say upsetting about the last,
call it five years since Trump was elected, was not even the policies of Trump, but that,
and I use the analogy, the comedian Michelle Wolf, that we'd heard mom was an alcoholic in college,
but now mom is mom and she's great. And then we're at church on Sunday and her purse bursts open and
40 mini bottles of Jack come flying out.
And we go, oh my God, we're still, mom's still an alcoholic.
I think the American public has had this sort of cold comfort that if racist, homophobic
people are exposed to people with different demographics, to people with different sexual
orientation, that over time, everyone generally gets better.
And I think we sort of, that was very comforting that we have a really ugly past,
but every day it gets better. And then it feels like the last five years, this group of people
who did not want to get better kind of came out of the closet and we took a big giant step backwards.
So sweet.
And it's really discouraging. It felt like the first time, I think kind of the
first time America like took a giant step backwards, so to speak. It was just weird.
Weird realizing.
I have always said they're sitting around the edges waiting for a minute.
Yeah, I think a lot of us didn't realize they were there.
I do. I'm always aware of that, especially, you know, in my case, it's anti-gay stuff,
but I am constantly aware of it. And it's just, it's insidious.
And now I have to think about states I don't want to go to.
I didn't used to think about it. I did and then didn't
and then, it's crazy. Speaking
of the army,
Microsoft won an army contract
to build a custom augmented
reality headset. Did you see that?
Microsoft now has two.
They had the one that they won
from Amazon that Trump kind of
pushed away from Amazon.
The device does things
like overlay a map
and compass
and thermal imaging
to show people in the dark.
It also shows the aim
for a weapon.
It's sort of like
video games.
And this has been
in the movies,
which is interesting,
but now is here.
A significant source
of revenue
for futuristic projects.
Amazon and Microsoft
competed for contracts
to provide cloud services
for the military. Microsoft won that and I think it's still in court.
Microsoft employees complained. We didn't sign up to develop weapons, of course.
The Army argues that the technology helps the military be more accurate and prevents killing of civilians.
Anyway, Microsoft is staying in the defense business.
It's a big business, as you said. There's lots of areas like healthcare, but defense certainly
is an area that tech has not been as dominant in.
And, of course, Elon got a space contract over the big space people of the aerospace industry.
So, it's just more of this, more of this.
What do you think?
What do you think of this?
Well, I mean, this was staggering.
Yeah.
We talked about Microsoft killing it.
Well, that's not the way you should put it.
Well, it's interesting on a number of levels.
So VR, everyone's like, okay, VR is the ultimate application for gaming or for porn or for real estate or whatever you want to call it.
And it's like, no, it's not.
If you look at revenues, the killer app for AR is warfare.
Yeah.
And the fact that our military is committing up to, I mean, you realize that this contract
is almost as big as the revenues of Tesla.
This contract, just the AR contract from Microsoft,
is now a bigger business in isolation
than Pinterest, Snap, and Twitter combined.
$21 billion is real cabbage.
Yeah, it really is.
And I wonder if it's one of those things
where a massive investment
by the government and the military, similar to DARPA or something, finally takes VR, AR kind of
to a tipping point and it starts to leak down or melt into the consumer economy. I've always been
very bearish on VR. I've read on various incendiary where they're playing video games when they're
doing drone stuff. And it's already moved in this direction. And I think more so in the future,
there's going to be this sort of,
not just, there's cyber warfare
and then there's warfare using
these augmented reality things.
And it makes sense if we have this in real life
that they're going to, you know,
they're going to put this into the military.
It'll be interesting to see, you know,
which employees don't want to do this.
Because I think every tech, you know,
Google got a real pushback from its employees working for
the Defense Department, obviously Amazon with ICE and stuff like that.
But these companies, this is a huge opportunity for all these companies.
Well, not like that, but they just went in response to employees complaining they didn't
go to work for, you know, a company to sell into the military.
They just basically sent out a memo that says, dear employees, grow the fuck up.
Yep.
I mean, the protections and the liberties we enjoy are directly correlated to the sacrifices
and resources we provide our young men. Even if you don't agree with bad wars or whatever,
the notion that any company of this size isn't ultimately going to somehow directly or indirectly
work with the government and with our defense.
It's, I don't know, grow up.
It sucks to be a grown-up.
Sucks to you.
Yeah, true.
But I think Google is not going to be able- Go to work for Ben and Jerry's or Birkenstock.
Okay, but I think Google is not going to do that pushback.
I think they got enormous pushback around a lot of stuff.
You know, it's-
$22 billion?
$22 billion?
It's a management thing.
They're going to have to figure out a way to manage it or move employees who don't mind over to it.
They can't.
These employees have power.
You know, it's not unlike Amazon warehouse workers.
Vocal minority.
Okay.
That may be.
But they should provide for you don't have to work on it if you don't want to.
They should.
They're not going to make people do it.
There's no way Silicon Valley is going to do that.
I agree.
Anyway, also, an area totally shifting to a different area.
Compass yesterday, before its IPO, cut the valuation in half.
It announced it wants to go public with a valuation of $7 billion
instead of the original $10 billion.
That's not quite half.
So talk about this.
This is something you wanted to talk about today.
But I use Compass to buy my houses, which is interesting.
Really?
But I use it to buy a regular real estate agent, not, you know, in their technological way.
But explain for the people why this, what this indicates.
This is muy interesante because it's sort of, I call these companies Rich Little companies.
Remember Rich Little?
He used to impersonate people.
He was a great, he used to go to Johnny Carson.
I thought he was great.
This is, SoftBank is sort of famous for pretending that a company is a tech company.
Yeah.
And remember, we as a tech company.
We were, right?
You know, work as a service.
And essentially, Compass is trying to position itself as a tech company.
They are.
And it's not.
It's got-
Yeah, I use the living, breathing person, but go ahead.
Well, you could argue that it's tech enabled, but essentially, 78% of the revenues are commissions paid out to humans called brokers.
Right. That's right. And they've adopted a capital as a strategy
strategy, and that is they're spending more money than their peer group, which by the way can work.
When Amazon spent more money, had access to cheap capital, and then leveraged that
incredible storytelling of Jeff Bezos to get cheap capital, that they then made these massive investments as long as their investors would tolerate losses, which was longer than any other company in history.
But when you invest tens of billions of dollars in warehouses, the warehouses won't pick up and leave and go across the street the moment someone else offers them a higher wage, which is what brokers will.
Brokers are some of the most.
It's a talent business.
Well, and they're some of the most coin-operated people in the world.
They're basically just send me,
and what essentially Compass has done
is said to these individuals,
we'll give you all of your commissions,
not half, to come over here.
And they made some acquisitions,
but it's basically a roll-up strategy
of traditional brokerages
based on capital as a strategy strategy.
There's some tech, there's some tech,
but here's the thing.
Talk about their tech, the thing they try to sell.
Like, I know that that's their big question.
I was always like, aren't you just a real estate broker?
I don't know.
It feels like a broker holding an iPad as far as I can tell.
But I will say this.
A colleague of mine, Foster Provost at NYU Stern, is this incredibly bright data guy.
He's worked for the biggest telcos in the world world and he works full-time or almost full-time
at Compass. So there's clearly something there around analytics, but here's the problem. It's about valuation.
And then that is if you look at Realogy, they do about six billion in revenues and their market cap is one and a half billion.
So they traded about 0.25
times revenues. And then there's Redfin, which does about,
excuse me, and then there's Zillow, which does about $3 billion in revenues and has a $30 billion market.
They trade at 10 times because that's generally an online real estate media company, and also they're in iBuying now.
And it's run by an incredibly impressive CEO.
And then selling all kinds of things off to the side.
That's right.
And so the valuation here is somewhere between 0.25 if you're a traditional revenues or traditional real estate company and 10 times if you're a tech company. So the S1
is trying to say, for God's sakes, we're rich little, we're tech, we're tech, we're tech.
And the reality is, I don't think the market buys it. And they're trying to go out,
even with this reduced valuation, they're trying to go out at two to three times revenues
as opposed to 0.25, which is where traditional brokers go.
So I think this is – it's interesting.
Goldman is running the book, and Goldman is very good at creating demand.
So I'm remiss to make a prediction that the stock won't do well.
But do you think retail investors think this is like the second coming of real estate?
Not only that, this smells a lot like another real estate company that had entered into consensual hallucination with the marketplace around its valuation. And that's another soft bank-backed company in real estate. And not only that, this smells a lot like another real estate company that had entered into consensual hallucination with the marketplace around its valuation.
And that's another soft bank backed company in real estate, WeWork.
Now that's totally flipped.
Which is coming back in a better way.
Yep.
Yeah.
So, and this kind of goes, this will go to my prediction, but it feels, this feels eerily
reminiscent, a company pretending to be a tech company such that they can get a much
higher valuation than is warranted.
And the market, the market has learned here, the market is regurgitating. It's supposed to go public this
morning. It'll price. Goldman is the best in the world at creating institutional demand
and filling the book to make sure that the IPO is successful. But they've cut the price several
times. Whereas if you look at Airbnb and these other guys, they kept raising the price range.
Raising the price, yeah. People know what a duck is.
Duck is a duck.
There you go.
It's a duck with an iPad.
All right.
We're going to move on to our big story.
Like that.
That's good.
We're going to move on to our big story.
This week, Biden detailed his $2 trillion infrastructure plan.
How many zeros is that?
That's bigger than the entire federal government budget. He calls it a once-in-a-generation investment, the largest since World War II,
since we built the highway system, and since the space race. It will require 15 years of higher taxes on corporations, raising the rates from 21% to 28%. He's giving $50 billion to boost
the domestic chip industry, a big boost to electric cars. He promised faster internet
and better transit, electric charging station.
It imagines a different energy future.
Second part of the plan invests in human infrastructure, aid to the poor, paid leave, help with child care.
The plan also includes right to organize act to counter right to work laws.
There's also train stuff with Amtrak wants, which they put out a fantastic map that essentially says, screw you, Christine Noem.
It totally avoids her state. This is long
overdue. And let me just say, I did an interview with Mariana Matsukata, who talked about this
idea of government doing these important moonshots in areas like climate change or infrastructure.
But can it ever pass? This is big. I think this is wonderful. I think it's just wonderful. We are the apex species.
The business model of our species responsible for our success is capitalism.
And the ballast and the success of capitalism is a robust middle class.
And slowly but surely, Kara, slowly but surely, we have increased Social Security taxes and payroll taxes and individual income taxes.
Social Security taxes and payroll taxes and individual income taxes.
And we have reduced corporate income taxes to the point where only $1 and $12 versus $1 and $2 of receipts from the government come from corporate taxes versus individual income taxes. So essentially what we've said is corporations, you pay less and individuals, you pay more.
And we continue one of the most dangerous trends in our society where we've decided we don't like people, but we love corporations. And
what happens? What happens? I'm on, I was, when the tax cuts, the Trump tax cuts went
through from 38 to 21%, in 2017, I was on a board of a media company and board of a
retailer, both multi-billion dollar companies. And all of a sudden in the board meeting,
we're like, oh my gosh, what's the earnings and the cashflow surprise? All of a sudden it's like,
well, it's the advantageous tax cuts. And what did we do with that money? Did we hire more people?
Give it to rich people.
Did we invest in factories? No, we used it for share buybacks or cash on our balance sheet,
which does what? It juices the stock price. And by the way, who owns 90% of stocks by dollar volume? The
top 1%. So all we have done, all we have done with increasing the tax liabilities of individuals as
a percentage of our government, and by the way, as a percentage of total tax receipts, individual
taxes have not gone up. We've just funded it with taxes on your daughter for when she's old enough to be a taxpayer. We've racked
up massive debt. Oh, don't mean to my daughter. We have just transferred slowly but surely wealth,
which is nothing. Money is just a transfer of time and work. So we have said we want the top
1% or shareholders to work less and spend more time with their families such that the middle
class and future generations can spend less time with their families.
It is criminal what's gone on here.
This is like a, it's not, you know, people, the Republicans are trying to put it off as
a goodie bag, but this is the kind of big thinking, the big LBJ, Great Society, the
FDR.
This is the, I kind of like it.
He didn't go, he went for broke.
Now, interestingly, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was on the things they needed even more, but
this was as much as they said it was going to be, which it never is, right?
That's one thing.
It'll get clipped back.
He's starting big.
But he didn't back down first.
People were, I think, surprised by the breadth of this.
Like, go for it.
And what was really interesting was how it's going to be paid.
I think there's nobody against taxing corporations,
even though they lobby us.
But I think it's a great populist thing for him.
It put money in lots of really interesting places. It has an innovative element, but, you know,
$50 billion to boost domestic chip industry, cars, better trains, better, you know, human,
this human infrastructure, the idea of paid leave and help with childcare. We should have full
childcare. That's an install. That's to be we should do. But, you know, whatever. We hate children and women in this country in a lot of ways.
But this is very breathful.
You know, it would be interesting to how you pass it, though.
How do you get this passed?
And the argument's about too much debt.
Obviously, there's a big climate plan in here, too.
So there's all kinds of things to like for different people.
And it's also a lot of
things that people who are worried about debt and other things do not like. Yeah. So again,
infrastructure, what is infrastructure? Infrastructure is an investment in the middle
class because when the J train is only running every two hours instead of every 15 minutes from
Brooklyn into the city, who gets hurt? The assistant or the secretary and not the executive gets to take an Uber or kind of
figures it out or has a driver. So infrastructure is an investment in the middle class. It's also
an investment in brand building. I remember the first time I went to China, I flew into the
new Hong Kong airport and then I went to the Shanghai airport and I'm like, Jesus,
these people take themselves very seriously. And then I fly into
JFK and I think, Jesus Christ, are there chickens and goats running around here? It felt like,
you think, okay, what happened to us? And the infrastructure is-
Same thing with train stations. Like they're making a big deal of this new New York one. I'm
like, Penn Station's been a pit my entire life. And now they have a train station they're like, yay, that sort of reaches basic levels with Europe.
Basic, like not even as nice as Europe 1 still.
Penn Station is supposedly one of the great architectural crimes in history.
Especially it was beautiful and then they tore it down to make this just disgusting architectural.
It's not even charming in its grossness.
Like some things that are like old and broken down are charming.
Are you talking about me again?
Are you talking about me again? Are you talking about me again?
Do you know I do CrossFit?
I do CrossFit.
Penn Station is the worst place on earth.
I'm surprised I'm not dead having been in there 900 times.
Like, anyway.
Yeah, I'm not a big Penn Station fan.
I had a little side train rant there.
Yeah.
Anyone who's been to Europe loves trains, even though they make no economic sense whatsoever.
But look, infrastructure is an
investment in the country and it's an investment in the middle class because the people who really
need roads and public transportation are the middle class. And oh my gosh, broadband. I think
a bridge too far here is they're now claiming that social programs that feel very UBI-like
are infrastructure investments. But I love this. and the swing back to protecting and loving Americans as opposed
to American corporations is long overdue.
The problem they're going to face, the problem they're going to face is they're going to
have to figure out either multinational tax treaties or some sort of crazy punishment
for companies that decide to do an inversion.
And that is overnight they say, well, we have an Amsterdam office, we'll just make our headquarters Amsterdam because they have lower tax rates. Because now if you add up all the taxes
with this increase to 28, the average tax rate on corporations will be 33% making it the highest of
any OECD country. Even though it'll only make up probably 10 or 11% of our total tax receipts,
it'll still be an issue they have to face. What happens when these companies decide to do these inversions? That's still a big issue.
Yeah. We'll see. We'll see if they do that. You know, there's always that,
we're going to go somewhere else. We'll go. Go ahead.
Well, the problem is some have. I don't know.
Yeah, some have.
I mean, an inversion is nothing different. They just
filed paperwork and say, our headquarters are now in the Isle of Man.
Yeah, it just is not a good look for companies. I don't know.
They don't care.
Well, it's an interesting question.
They don't care.
You know, we'll see if these, pushing corporations to do things is really interesting. What happened
with Delta and Coca-Cola suddenly in Georgia post these voter laws passing to say, oh,
we really think we hate them after not seeming to do anything before.
We don't know what goes on behind the scenes. Well, Tim Cook came out against it.
He did too.
They all do.
Yeah, they're all doing it.
Like, but it's post.
They should have poured some money in there
during the making of it,
but there was nothing to do.
Now, what's really interesting is
instead of just dealing with it,
the Georgia Senate is trying to clap back at Delta.
Good luck, my friends.
The Republican Party really doesn't want corporate money,
I guess.
That's really what's going on here.
They just don't want, they want to be the party of, they want to give the corporations over to the Democrats in terms of donations and everything else.
It's really quite odd what's happening there.
We'll see what goes on.
All right, Scott, this is really, we like this plan.
Scott and Carol love this plan, correct?
Infrastructure.
I can't believe you don't like trains.
You like trains, don't you?
No, no, I love train travel.
They're just, it's just incredibly expensive. I mean, it's awesome. Yeah trains. You like trains, don't you? No, no. I love train travel. It's just incredibly expensive.
I mean, it's awesome.
Yeah, it is.
Really, economically, the only—
Yeah, I'm going to get on—as soon as I get my next vaccine, I'm going to get on an Amtrak.
The only feasible high-speed rail, really, is up the Northeastern Corridor and maybe like L.A. to Vegas.
And it's still gross.
It's still gross.
Do you know how much it costs to go from New York to D.C. right now on the Amtrak?
$343?
$19.
I was close.
I was close.
$19.
That's why they come to the dog.
It's incredible.
It's usually, you know, at the least it's $69 or $70 when you get it way in advance and, you know, you sit in the shitty section, although they're all shitty sections.
Amtrak.
Amtrak is literally like, the brand has gotten so bad and tired
it's almost sort of cute
it's so pretty
it's so cute
it's not nice
they're not nice trains
anyway
I'm sorry Amtrak
but I ride it
I used to ride it a lot
before the pandemic
and I will continue to ride it
but boy you got
I met my hero
on Amtrak
who?
Marguerite Vestia
oh did you?
she was knitting
she was knitting
and I went up to her
and said can I have a selfie
and she was very friendly
I just did an event with her
she's looking good let me just say I did did an event with her. She's looking good.
Let me just say, I did a Zoom thing with her recently.
She's looking good.
She wasn't knitting during the event.
Yeah.
What did you say to her?
I went up and I said, I'm a huge fan.
And she looked up at me and I thought some like Nordic CIA agent was going to tackle me.
And she like had this huge smile and she stood up and I took a selfie with her.
I never do that.
Yeah.
But I think she's a gangster.
I think she's fantastic. I'll bring her on the show. Yeah, here we go her. I never do that. Yeah, she's quite something. But I think she's a gangster. I think she's fantastic. We've got to go bring her on
the show. Yeah, here we go.
Here we go. Yeah, yeah.
And I'm going to buy you that rabbit code. Do we have
to go back to my old jokes? What would you do?
What would you do if I told you
I have Anderson Cooper to come on Sway?
I'd feel jealous because I'm the one
that's supposed to reach out to him. I'm sorry to tell you.
I'm building up to that. I'm building up to that. I'm sorry to tell you.
He's coming on fucking Sway.
Don't even say that.
Don't even go there.
Seriously.
Don't even go there.
If he shows up-
April Fools!
I got you.
Actually, I have Don Lemon coming on with this book.
Don Lemon?
Yeah, I'm not going to ask.
I wasn't, I'm not going to,
Anderson is a bridge too far,
though I certainly would love to have him on Sway,
but I won't do it.
I got you, didn't I? I got you. You thought for a minute because you thought I could get him, Anderson is a bridge too far, though I certainly would love to have him on Sway, but I won't do it. I got you, didn't I?
I got you.
You thought for a minute because you thought I could get him, right?
Correct?
Did I get you?
You know better than to go there.
I know, but it was a good April Fool's, wasn't it?
That's right, it's April Fool's.
You did.
You could see your face.
Nobody can see his face, but he was like, has she betrayed me?
The final betrayal.
Who else would be a betrayal?
Anderson Cooper.
I don't know.
We've had Fareed Zakaria.
If you got Angela Merkel, she's another hero of mine, that would be very upsetting.
Well, that might happen.
That I'm not going to give you, Angela.
But I will give you Ando.
Ando is yours forever and always.
You know what?
I'm emailing him today or texting him because we have each other's phone number.
And we use emojis.
I didn't even know that worked. I'm so excited. That was good. Scott, let's go on a quick break. We'll come back. Because we have each other's phone number. And we use emojis.
That was good. I'm so excited.
That was good.
Scott, let's go on a quick break.
We'll come back.
We'll talk about Facebook's latest defense and Trump's failed hack.
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slash Claude. Scott, we're back. We are back. Nick Clegg, Facebook's vice, you're still getting
over my April Fool's joke. I can't think about anything else. I'm still kind of shaken. Oh,
come on. I would never do that to you.
I really wouldn't.
Scott Rebeck.
Nick Clegg, Facebook's vice president of global affairs, published a Medium post saying Facebook doesn't promote extreme content and unveiling some changes for users.
Meanwhile, Trump tried a new trick to get back on the site.
In his post, Clegg writes, Facebook systems were not designed to reward provocative comment because advertisers don't want to appear next to extreme content.
Does this seem plausible? He says the overwhelming number of things people see
are about pets, babies, and vacations. He went on about that for a little bit and also in an
interview with Casey Newton. He also argues, which really makes no sense, that pushing extreme
content would only be a short-term strategy, a sugar rush as he puts it, but they want to keep
people coming back for 10, 20 years. So why would they do it? Facebook is introducing a feed filter bar to make some of the controls like display chronological
order more prominent and other ways to do that. He says they're also trying to make the algorithm
more transparent by allowing you to click on three dots and ask, why am I seeing this on any content,
which should have been there in the frigging first place. But anyway, so I'll get to Trump in a second.
What do you, Nick Clegg is a clever man,
but goodness sake,
what do you think?
So I'm going to go out
on a limb here
and suggest that Nick Clegg
is not being 100%
forthcoming with us.
But he's charming.
Yeah, well,
he's a handsome British guy.
I think I met him
at Can and Can.
But you didn't take a selfie
with him like Marguerite Vestager.
Oh, no way.
His sworn enemy, by the way.
Go ahead.
Not really.
Look, I don't, at this point, why do they do, I don't even understand this from a PR strategy.
I think that they should release data that shows that.
Yeah.
You talked about that.
Well, any individual that has a Facebook card, the immediate assumption is you're a liar.
You're trading your reputation for money, and that you are essentially the nemesis of the Commonwealth, and that you are the fuel and the agent of teen depression, the weaponization of our democracy, and a general lack of regard for other human beings.
Welcome to Facebook.
That's kind of the employee handbook.
Yeah, it was an interesting thing.
I think they're trying to pull on something.
There's two things that I will give them credit, not credit for, that I agree with them, is that
polarization did not start with Facebook. There's lots of studies and it's a mixed bag on these
things of where polarization, polarization has been in existence forever. It's the fueling of it.
It's the constant fueling of it. And even his whole thing was like, when you go to your site
and you see your friends fighting with each other or your family or this or that, that's not what's really happening.
And I'm like, well, then show the stuff.
Then show the stuff.
Or let independent researchers in there.
And then, of course, it's, well, we have these arguments about data, keeping data safe and this and that.
And so they keep promising to open it up more so you can see what's happening.
But they said, just take our word for it, I think,
is what he was trying to do here.
And nobody's taken their word for it.
I think opening up the data to independent people
and not fucking with it would be a really important thing.
I do agree with him.
Why would you want extreme content on there?
I do think it's like a pernicious kudzu, essentially.
They can't stop it.
I don't think they want it necessarily. I think that argument that they want it is not true. It's
not good for them. But it certainly is, and it's not good for advertisers. But this idea, then show
me the, he started talking about it with Casey, a bear, a mother bear. I was like, that is not what
people's experience of Facebook is, if you just delve down very quickly.
And some of this stuff to let people filter things more, essentially make your own Facebook, are interesting but long overdue.
I don't know.
I don't understand it.
Why do you think he did this now?
What is the impetus?
I had trouble processing anything after you said pernicious kudzu.
Pernicious kudzu. You's pernicious kudzu.
You're still getting all my personal jokes.
In any case, I don't understand this.
You wouldn't actually invite Anderson, right?
I just want to, like, confirm that you know.
I will not invite Anderson Cooper.
Nobody believes anything Facebook says anymore.
They should, if they have data to back that up, they should release the data.
But the general rule when you become a senior executive, whether you're Campbell Brown or Nick Clegg, is like, you have had a great career building a lot of credibility. We're going to throw, we're Donald Trump. We're going to ruin your credibility for a long, long time, but we're going to pay a lot of money. And so it's worth it. And people make that trade.
trade. I don't, the whole argument around, this is the Jack Dorsey argument, that unfortunately the internet is bad and we just represent the internet. And I just thought that's eerily
similar to guns don't kill people, people kill people. It does feel like that, doesn't it?
No, actually you have made things worse and you're so powerful that you deserve scrutiny. And by the way, I just, you know, I mean, it all adds up to
just a bad place. Who is the new biggest spender on lobbying? It used to be big oil. It used to be
big tobacco. Now it's big tech. And what do these companies have in common? Generally speaking,
their externalities are really awful.
Yeah, it's going to be. It's an interesting thing that they continue to,
I get why they do push back, but at the same time, you can't have a cogent argument with
them because you just don't believe them. It's like a bad boyfriend. You're like, no, you're
lying.
The solution here.
Even if they're not.
Look, there is good in Facebook. I know a lot of people with Facebook that are really good people
and I think are genuine about trying to do the right thing.
This company will never have any credibility.
This company will never be able to pivot to being a decent citizen until two things happen.
Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg leave.
Cancer and lipstick on cancer roll out of there.
And people say, well, that'll never happen.
Then, okay, then Facebook will never be taken seriously for any attempt at goodwill. I mean, enough already.
Yeah, it's interesting.
That's the only thing they could do. If shareholders really said, all right,
this is an amazing business.
They're making a ton of money. They're not going to do it.
I agree. I agree.
This isn't, meanwhile, Trump's daughter-in-law, Lara, somewhat like Kara, but not, totally
opposite.
You two remind me of each other.
Promoted an interview with him on her Facebook and Instagram account.
Facebook nixed it, saying it was in the voice of Trump and was not allowed, which was interesting.
Probably virtue signaling here.
And Lara got all mad, saying we're in the age of Orwell.
She's just trying to, she's such a sneaker.
She sneaks around things.
Give her credit for that,
I guess, which was interesting. And then in the interview with Casey Newton, Clegg talked about what's going to happen with the Facebook decision. They're going to have to abide by it. They're
bound by it. See how sophisticated it is because Trump also broke all these rules.
So it's going to, you know, he can't keep, he can't get a full, you know, a full pardon here at the same
time. The board can't give him a full pardon if he keeps breaking the rules. So, he said it's
going to bind them, which is interesting. So, what do you think of this, the Trump situation?
Maybe it's not going to be as important to Trump going forward.
I literally think one of the biggest tax cuts we've ever registered emotionally.
And I do understand that there's some danger to this, and even Bernie Sanders seemed concerned about a ban of Trump.
Having less Trump in our lives, and I say this as, you know, I guess a progressive, but my life's been much nicer the last eight weeks.
Hasn't your life?
Yes, and his people can get his stuff.
That's, by the way, if they want it, they can have Trump all day.
There's ways to avail yourself to Trump if you really miss him.
You can go get yourself some Trump.
This decision's coming at some point.
It'll be interesting to see what happens here.
But, you know, this idea of them sneaking around.
They're allowing interviews if he did 60 minutes, but Lara is close.
They have a group that they're like, these are his promoters, like his family members,
and they can't try to do a walk around.
He tried to do that after he was banned from Twitter, and Twitter shut everything down.
They were trying to get Dan Scavino and others tried to put his tweets up and this and that.
And they haven't really tried on Twitter because then you'll get right.
I don't understand all the hammering over this. i heard about this guy who went into one medical i love one medical and and someone asked him to put on a mask and he flipped
off uh the the person and they banned him from all of one medical and i'm like okay they're allowed
to do that yeah and i think that's a good move and maybe it's wrong i don't know maybe it was freedom
of speech but i don't understand they're a private company. Why all this hand-wringing?
And when they decide, you know, we're so important that we've evolved to the point where
any time we ban or don't ban someone, it's a question of free speech and societal. It means
they're too power and they need to be regulated. So, I don't, I just don't understand why a private
company needs to, all this hand-wringing. Okay, is our service, is shareholder value, is our health for the world better without these elements on our platform?
And if the answer is yes, okay, that's all they need to answer to.
I don't get it.
And they certainly can do it, which sort of goes against Nick's idea that they can't.
He didn't really cover that in this piece.
Anyway, we're going to move on and take a listener mail question.
I agree with you. I think it'll be interesting to see. We're going to be that in this piece. Anyway, we're going to move on and take a listener mail question. I agree with you.
I think it'll be interesting to see.
We're going to be talking about this issue.
I'm not, because I know it's near and dear to your heart, cancel culture, but I'm going
to call it what Roxane Gay calls it, consequence culture.
We'll discuss what that means on Monday.
That was my consequence culture.
It's not cancel culture for fuck's sake.
Anyway, moving on.
Let's take a listener mail question.
You've got, you've got, I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've got mail.
Hey, Karen Scott. First off, Kara, congratulations on the adoption being official. Blessings to you
and your beautiful family. I'm sure y'all have seen the latest research from Gallup saying those
who claim membership in a church or faith community has dropped below 50% in the USA.
As a United Methodist clergy person in Dallas, I have many questions about this, but my question for y'all is, do you see this as a rise in
secularization or a general evolution from membership to subscription where people are
consuming spirituality much like they do media? If so, what does a faith rundle look like, Scott?
How can technology benefit faith communities? And how can I get in touch with folks at WeWork
or Airbnb to discuss co-working sacred space? I know a lot of spaces that are far too empty. Love your show.
Thank you for writing in this question. I am not a religious person. I grew up Catholic,
but have not been inside a Catholic church since I was confirmed, I think. So, this is an
interesting question. What do you think, Scott? I think there's been some really fascinating stuff
done online with religion over the pandemic, for example.
some really fascinating stuff done online with religion over the pandemic, for example. So, I'm a rabid atheist. Atheism is a core part of my being. It gives me a finite nature
of life and motivates me. It's been a real positive in my life.
I'm an agnostic.
Agnostics are just—agnostics are atheists that are wimps. Come out of the
closet and say you're a fucking atheist. I'm not, though.
I used to say that, too.
I believe there's something, but I don't know which one.
It's such bullshit.
It's hard to get away from the Catholic faith.
Grow a pair and come to atheism.
No, I can't do it.
I think one of the most dangerous and disappointing things in our country is the decline in church attendance.
I grew up, my dad's been married and divorced four times. in our country is the decline in church attendance.
I grew up, my dad's been married and divorced four times. So I went to a variety of religious institutions growing up,
Presbyterian church, temple.
And I think it's wonderful when people
and Americans get together once every Sunday to hold hands
and think about agency in something bigger than themselves,
show empathy, greet their neighbor, sing together.
Physically.
This isn't a physical element, not just online.
But I think church is wonderful.
And I think one of the reasons we have more mass shootings,
we have more depression, we have loneliness,
is we have lost the connective tissue between Americans.
And one of the connective tissues traditionally
in American society has been religion. And I don't even think of it as worship of a God. I
think of it as worship of a community. And the kind of central star, if you will, of the role
model started with this great viewpoint of love the poor. And it's just not a bad idea to get
together every Sunday and talk about how we should love the poor.
I think a lot of these young men
who ended up being mass shooters,
I wonder what would have happened if they'd been,
actually, the one guy at the Asian spa thing,
come to think of it, he had a real conflict with religion.
It's a complicated issue,
but I would argue that church,
as a society becomes more educated and wealthier,
church attendance goes down,
but we still have these huge questions.
And unfortunately, we've replaced spirituality with this fetishization of the nearest thing
to mysticism and godlike impression, and that is technology. And instead of church attendance,
instead of worshiping Jesus, and I'm a big fan of JC. I think he's a wonderful man. I do believe he existed. I just
don't buy his lineage. The problem is we've replaced him with a man, effectively or theoretically,
with a man who denied his own blood under oath to avoid child support payments when he was worth a
quarter of a billion dollars. Our new Jesus Christ are Jack Dorsey and Steve Jobs, and it's really
unhealthy. So, I think I'm a huge fan. I give money to churches.
It's actually Elon. It's funny that you picked those two. Elon's the new Jesus.
Yeah, you might be right. I think it's terrible for our society. And I say that as someone who's
100% convinced that when I am about to die, I'm going to look into my kid's eyes and our
relationship is coming to an end. I do not believe in an afterlife. But I think church,
the decline in church attendance signals something really
unfortunate in our society. It does. And it plays into, one of the things, I've been watching an
excellent series, I've mentioned it before, on HBO, Into the Storm, the Q Anon documentary,
which I think is fantastic. And one of the things, there's such a sad underbelly to our world. And
again, it sort of plays into Nick Clegg, it was always there. But boy, does the internet take it to new levels.
You know, these 8chan and stuff like,
it's disgusting and really depressing.
And actually the founder of 8chan
is the one that went that way.
It just was, there was a point,
there was a limit to free speech at some point.
Anyway, we'll see.
We're not very religious, sir.
I don't know.
That is a good idea.
We think that there should be more ability
for people to get together in a community of faith, whatever they happen to be.
It's a huge issue that we keep talking about dispersion, and that is we're all less time at work.
And the evil cousin to dispersion is segregation.
And it's not only segregation physically.
It's segregation emotionally.
And we don't interact with people when we don't see people of different demographic groups at the mall
or at the movie theater.
And like schools.
Yeah.
And like schools
for K through 12.
Maybe not college as much,
but K through 12.
Oh my gosh.
You really do need
to be physically in place.
Although,
I think some of the churches
Where did you go
to high school, Kara?
If I say it,
you're going to say
I'm like rich white person.
Oh my God,
even whiter?
Did you go to Exeter
or Fieldston or something?
No, I almost did though.
Princeton Day School. Princeton Day School.
Princeton Day School.
And I'm going to be giving the commencement address there this year.
Good for you.
That's nice.
That's really nice.
Yeah, Princeton.
It's a lovely private school in Princeton, New Jersey, which is already a lovely town.
A lovely private school in Princeton, New Jersey.
Okay.
Yes.
From the mean streets of Princeton, New Jersey.
Kara Swisher.
My streets were not mean.
You know what?
I am a hardworking, rich person is what I am.
All right.
Scott, one more quick break.
We'll be back for predictions.
The Capital Ideas Podcast now features a series hosted by Capital Group CEO, Mike Gitlin.
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Support for this show comes from Constant Contact.
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Okay, Scott, prediction time.
You sort of said you had a prediction and you sort of gave us a little preview,
but give it to us.
Well, I'm fascinated by the kind of
the real estate tech space.
And I've wanted to look more into Open Door
and Redfin and some of those guys.
But I think that my prediction is
WeWork,
shockingly enough, is going to overperform over the next 12 months. And I think-
Yeah, which you've talked about.
And I think Compass is going to underperform. I think Compass really is trying to pretend
to be something it isn't. And I looked through the S1 and I'm trying to understand what about
these massive investments they've made because of the cheap capital are sustainable?
Because the majority of these investments have been in commissions to brokers.
And I don't see how that creates sustainable advantage.
Because they can leave, because they can go somewhere else.
78% of their revenue is going to commissions to individuals who will literally walk across the street the same day if you say, I'm giving you 10% more in commission.
Like the agency business. Yeah. And the question is, are they making investments in technology that creates so
much differentiation and ability to get more deal flow that the brokers say, well, I'm going to stay
here? There's some sort of, I mean, for example, Goldman Sachs could technically pay their traders
a little bit less commission because they're just going to get more deal flow. And when you show up
at the Goldman Sachs, the one thing I will say about my friends who have left Goldman or Morgan Stanley or McKinsey is they don't realize how powerful
a calling card that was. And then when they start calling people and say, hey, I want to work with
you, I'm retired, I'm just like, their calls aren't returned quite as quickly. And I don't
know if that's true. I don't know how much enterprise value Compass is building. So anyways.
I have an excellent real estate agent. I've never talked
technology with her once. So you have an agent at Compass? Yes. And if she goes to Prudential or
Corcoran, you'll go with her. I'll go with her. Yeah. So that means a lack of enterprise value.
They have been able to retain her, but at some point, will she just go to another firm?
Yeah. And there's been no technology that I think, that I couldn't find myself on Zillow.
You know what I mean?
Like, that I couldn't compare and contrast.
That's what it feels like.
And so these firms trade at that firm.
Good real estate agency.
So Sotheby's.
Fine.
They have the best listings.
They do have good listings.
Sotheby's is a great brand.
But it doesn't matter.
It's a great brand.
It's part of Realogy.
And they trade at 0.25 times revenue.
So 0.25 times $3.5 billion would be a $900 million
market capitalization. And this thing was supposed to go out at $10 billion. They've cut it to $7.
This just feels like a slow burn downwards. But WeWork is sort of actualized back to what
it's supposed to be, correct? That's what I'm trying to think. I think their vision...
Look, if you have the right guy or gal running the company, things usually work out.
And I know Sandeep Mantrani, the guy who runs WeWork now, and he's a talented operator.
So, anyways, a year from now or six months from now, compass down, WeWork up.
All right.
Okay, that's a good prediction.
That's an excellent prediction.
Well, thank you.
And a good one, too.
You're being generous.
Praise Jesus.
Let's go to church.
But any case,
neither of us are very religious,
but we have respect for people. Yeah, I told you I was.
As long as they get the fuck
out of gay people's way
and stop trying to ruin their lives.
I told you I was an altar boy
in a Catholic church for a while, right?
Really?
Yes, I was touched.
Okay.
Come on, that's good.
That's good pedophilia humor.
I'm not even going to dignify that with a response. That's good pedophilia humor I'm not even going to dignify that
with a response
I'm going to get on the phone
I'm going now to interview
Anderson Cooper
so I'll talk to you soon
seriously
don't go there
you're still
you're still
you're still triggered by it
don't go there
I'm not going to talk to
no there's a part of you
that likes to hurt me
there's a part of you
well it is April Fool's Day and it, so let's just live with it.
Now I know your weak points, and it has to do with Ando.
Yeah.
Anyway, Scott, I want you to do, I'm going to do something nice to you since I teased you about Ando, et cetera.
I can't wait.
I literally, I can't wait for this.
I want you to plug your show, The Prof G Show.
It's part of the Vox Media Podcast Network now.
Tell us about it.
Tell us.
Give us some specifics.
It's kind of more of this, minus the journalistic credibility.
No, The Prof G Show.
I've done it for a while.
We've just joined Vox.
We do a breakdown of what I think is the most underreported story in business.
And we do office hours, which is my favorite part, based on my favorite show that I used to watch with my mom, Frasier.
We do kind of a call-in show.
And then we do an algebra of happiness moment,
where instead of trying to jab and take advantage of people's emotions,
I try to discuss them.
I'm trying to...
Anyways, but anyways...
Give me an example.
What moment did you have?
Let's have one right here.
What moment did I have? Yeah, have one right here. What moment did I have?
Yeah, like what is the moment of happiness?
Well, I think, so I'm doing, I'm recording.
You talked about speaking at your, being the commencement speaker at your graduation.
I've been asked to do a lot of, record a lot of videos for graduations because they're all virtual now.
And everybody gives you advice in these graduation videos.
And the advice that we were given when I graduated from business school
in the 90s was go to work for Dell or Microsoft or go to Russia,
which was supposed to be the land of opportunity in the 90s.
Yeah.
And I said, just avoid most of the advice.
And the only piece of advice I can give these kids that I know is absolutely true
is that they will never regret at that age telling the people who've helped them get to that point that they love them and they appreciate them.
That's the only thing when I look back that I wish I'd done more of.
And the little that I did, I'm just hugely grateful for.
Oh, you're tearing up.
Oh, how lovely.
That show sounds lovely.
It's because I didn't work out today because you started this fucking thing early.
Now I'm all teared up.
All right.
Thank you for doing that.
I need to go do CrossFit.
The Prof G Show is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.
It's Mondays and Thursdays.
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So more of Scott.
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That's right.
That's what we all need.
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Master Dog.
Master Dog. We'll be back on Tuesday. Again, we More Scott. Must the dog. Must the dog.
We'll be back on Tuesday.
Again, we'll be talking about consequence culture.
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Don't make fun of me.
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Oh, my God.
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Scott, read us out. Today's show was produced by Camila Sal podcast. The link is also in our show notes. Scott, read us out.
Today's show was produced by Camila Salazar.
Ernie Entretat engineered this episode.
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