Pivot - Cook vs. Zuckerberg vs. consumer privacy
Episode Date: February 1, 2019Kara and Scott talk about Apple and Facebook's latest gaffes and how Apple might be the only force left regulating Facebook. There's a-latte to say about Howard Schultz's presidential ambitions. Nancy... Pelosi was a big winner this week (and Scott for predicting the shutdown would end on last week's episode!) We also hear from a historian who told the Davos crowd that a top-marginal tax has historically worked in the United States. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Support for Pivot comes from Virgin Atlantic.
Too many of us are so focused on getting to our destination that we forgot to embrace the journey.
Well, when you fly Virgin Atlantic, that memorable trip begins right from the moment you check in.
On board, you'll find everything you need to relax, recharge, or carry on working.
Buy flat, private suites, fast Wi-Fi, hours of entertainment, delicious dining, and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you.
delicious dining and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you.
Check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip to London and beyond and see for yourself how traveling for business can always be a pleasure.
Support for this show is brought to you by Nissan Kicks.
It's never too late to try new things.
And it's never too late to reinvent yourself.
The all-new Reimagined
Nissan Kicks is the city-sized crossover vehicle that's been completely revamped for urban adventure.
From the design and styling to the performance, all the way to features like the Bose Personal
Plus sound system, you can get closer to everything you love about city life in the all-new
Reimagined Nissan Kicks. Learn more at www.nissanusa.com
slash 2025 dash kicks. Available feature, Bose is a registered trademark of the Bose Corporation.
Hi everyone, this is Pivot from the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisher, and I'm here in freezing D.C. where the government is back up and running for the moment.
And this is Scott Galloway coming to you from the polar vortex of Delray Beach, Florida, where it is 65 degrees.
It's unbearable, Cara.
You know what? Stop.
It's unbearable.
Don't, don't, because people in the Midwest are dying. Don't make—no, no, no, no.
The White Walkers are coming.
Not allowed. Not allowed. I just rode.
Okay, I just rode a scooter here to get here on time.
I rode very fast.
You got to stop that.
I was leaving the house fast.
You got to stop the scooter thing, Kara.
My face froze.
It was lovely.
It really did.
I love the scooter thing.
That's just nuts.
I wear a helmet.
It's good.
You're going to slip and break a hip.
People our age shouldn't be on scooters.
We shouldn't be on scooters.
You should be home watching Murder, She Wrote.
Speak for yourself.
I'm very fit.
Not on a scooter.
No, I'm very fit.
I'm very fit.
I do SoulCycle.
I had a lovely SoulCycle yesterday.
It was great.
I'm in very good shape.
You know what I did this morning?
I did CrossFit.
Oh, did you?
Do you like that stuff?
All the internet people love that stuff.
Well, you know how you can tell if someone does CrossFit.
How?
They tell you.
Damaged.
They tell you.
It's total signaling.
Oh, they tell you.
That's right.
It's like going to Harvard. Okay. Yeah, That's right. It's like going to Harvard.
Okay.
Yeah, that's right.
All right, good to know.
No, I went to school in Boston.
All right, we got lots of stories this week.
We have so many stories this week.
There are so many.
Let's start, like, I know we have to get to Facebook again.
Once again, we had Apple beginning the week by doing something that was not good, by having,
it wasn't a bug, it was a mistake in the FaceTime, which allowed people to listen in. So privacy, snafu,
right? And then they didn't tell about it for a week. But they did talk about it. They did
turn it off. They did all the things you're supposed to do and then admitted it. It just
took them a long time. And they're right in the middle of that, also announcing pretty earnings
that people were not thrilled with.
And then Facebook is at it again.
And this time they were caught paying teenagers to collect their data on an app. And in doing so, even though they got consent of teenagers,
I don't know how that works to start with,
they violated Apple's very strict terms of service on the kind of certificate.
It's called an enterprise certificate.
I'm not going to go into technical.
But they were using it in a consumer-facing way.
So Apple, you know, shut them down,
including internal apps that Facebook uses
on their staff's iPhones.
You know, like, I don't know, a parking app or a cafeteria.
I don't know what apps they're using,
but there's a whole bunch of internal apps
that these companies use,
and now Facebook isn't allowed to use them.
And so Apple pulled all their rights to do that, which was making Apple sort of the regulator of Facebook.
What do you think about this?
Let's unpack both of those.
So the first one was the Apple bug where on Facebook you got to listen to the conversation before people actually answered the phone.
I'm sorry, FaceTime.
Excuse me.
Thank you.
Not Facebook. Yeah. I think it's actuallyTime. Excuse me. Thank you. Not Facebook.
Yeah.
I think it's actually kind of a little bit of a nothing burger.
And the only thing I take away from it is that there's kind of a universal karmic response
that when you go on an indignant store about privacy, you're going to start violating people's
privacy.
It's just, it's sort of, they kind of had it coming.
I don't think it's a big deal.
I think they fixed it.
I don't, I really, I think it makes for an interesting it coming. I don't think it's a big deal. I think they fixed it.
I don't – I really – I think it makes for an interesting headline, but I don't – I think it's a big nothing. They act appropriately when it happens.
I mean some people have that battery thing.
Shut it down. They fixed it. Done next.
The thing, the fight between – I mean the other stuff, I actually think Facebook, what they – Facebook didn't.
As you know, neither of us I, are big, huge fans of Facebook.
Companies do this all the time.
And it was about 10% of the people were teenagers or under the age of 18.
They did get parental consent.
Right, research.
What's more interesting.
No, it's not clear they got parental consent.
Oh, I thought that they've shown that parents did, were in fact contacted and that there was a consent flow was the term they used.
I love the terms that Facebook puts out.
But it's not, I don't think it's anything
that other companies don't do every day.
I don't.
No, no, they all do them.
And Facebook does a lot of it.
Obviously, they want a lot of data.
They all do.
Google does them.
What you have is,
and what's interesting is that,
so the analogy I would use is,
in the 80s and 90s,
if you were black and sold white
people marijuana, you got stuck in jail. And then when you got out, you were on probation and
anything including having pornography on your computer was reason to put you back in jail.
And that's where Facebook is. Facebook is on probation. Nobody believes them. Everything
they do that is slightly questionable, everybody assumes is really
malicious and covert and awful. And this management team has absolutely no credibility,
and everybody always assumes the worst. And I don't think it's going to end until they turn
But breaking the TOS is not, should we care that they do that? Because Apple has slapped other
companies, and in fact, had slapped Facebook before for an app they had called Innovo, which was a data collecting app that they had bought many years ago.
And I remember when they did it, I'm like, oh, they're trying to collect data on lots of different app usage.
That's what they're doing it for.
This is the worst celebrity death match.
This is Ali Frazier turned hall monitor past work between Zuckerberg and Tim Cook.
This is personal.
There's nothing here except two people who hate each other
and they're going after each other and all being indignant.
It's not so what.
I don't think it's a big story.
I think the back story here is that Zuck and Tim Cook hate each other
and they're now fighting in public.
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, which they have been doing.
I got Tim to say those things about Mark on my interview with him this March and March.
And Apple, I mean, Facebook slapped back about it being indignant, Apple for being indignant.
And it just goes on.
But I think it still is getting to that.
There was a really good thing that I tweeted.
It was a thing of what they did.
And when others do it, Apple hits back harder.
And most people feel that Apple didn't hit back hard enough.
Others feel like, wow, this was really sort of screwing up their internal systems was a nice little dig.
But it's very clear.
Apple has always been super strict in its app store, and for Facebook to do a go-around because they didn't like the rules just seems like – I don't know.
They can't not like the rules.
They shouldn't operate on the platform.
They can go over and use.
So I think Facebook – I think the more interesting story, Kara, and this wasn't in our notes,
but I think the most underreported story
in tech right now
and the bigger deal
that no one's talking about
is Facebook's integration
of their backend
among WhatsApp,
Instagram,
and the core platform,
Facebook.
Yes, 100%.
Please go on.
Please keep going.
Okay, so I would like to give
Mark Zuckerberg
and Sheryl Sandberg
broader reach
and a more robust platform
said no person ever.
And that's what's going on here. We have these giant dials. It's like, if you think about Einstein,
I love the Einstein quote. They said, how will the third world war be fought? With what weapons?
And he said, I don't know, but I know the fourth world war will be fought with sticks and stones.
And I'm beginning to believe that the third world war is going to be fought with likes and retweets,
that we have figured out a way to create these giant dials that if you put a hand on it,
you can create rage from one community to another.
And I think that Russians have been able to get their hands on these dials
and are literally breaking us apart, these Western democracies.
And I know that sounds paranoid, but just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong.
And I know that sounds paranoid, but just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong. What we've done here's bow and say, look, if you integrate these three things, be careful. We can still
break your ass up. And what they're clearly doing is they're trying to create what I would call a
Siamese triplets defense. And they're going to be able to say, look, if you break us up,
if you try and separate us, the whole thing's going to die.
And the notion that they're going to have.
This is the reason Kevin Systrom left.
He saw this.
100%.
And also the guys, and the guys at WhatsApp, the guys who knew what was going on were disturbed
by this.
And yet nobody's talking about it.
Right.
That is a very fair point.
But this was something they're going to do.
They want, you know, the main Facebook business is so lagging among young people and others
that they have to sort of bring them together.
I think it's bloated.
The big blue app is bloated, essentially.
And so they're trying to be dynamic in other parts
but control it all from a centralized thing.
Now, if you were Mark Zuckerberg, this is precisely what you would do, right?
I mean, what else do you have to do?
You get consent from teenagers and you would do this
because you need as much data as possible.
Even though today they turned in, or last night,
they turned in amazing results.
Unbelievable.
Because there's nowhere else to go.
But we've been saying this despite all the headlines.
When is that over?
Despite all the headlines.
You're saying it doesn't matter.
I don't think it is over.
Look, in the 80s and 90s,
tobacco companies were killing half a million people a year.
And they were fantastic stocks to own.
And that's what we have here. We have a fantastic stock. This company is massively undervalued,
even as we speak today with it up 13% today. There is absolutely no evidence of the deceleration in
the business because it's a duopoly. And because these, I mean, these tools on Facebook, if you
ever want, I think all marketing classes should force their kids to go on Facebook and use their ad tools just to see how incredibly robust and powerful this platform is.
And if you look at their numbers yesterday, I mean, this company literally from a business standpoint is a juggernaut.
And we'd like to think that all this bad behavior translates to a reduction in their power in the business community?
100% not. This is tobacco in the 80s and 90s killing people and growing earnings massively.
Well, there you have it. I didn't think it would. Someone asked me earlier this week,
I was on a stage, how do you think they're going to do? I said, great. I said, you know,
analysts and stock market, they own the digital advertising market with Google. And so why wouldn't they be?
It doesn't matter.
I think eventually it does matter, though.
In the end is how products get less and less interesting.
And if they embarrass people who advertise there, that's really where they're at.
But so far, they haven't embarrassed them.
We'll see if they can continue to do so.
And you're right.
But their trust is way down.
And I don't think that's a great place to be.
That's how it started for Microsoft.
I don't know.
People overestimate the power of trust.
Everybody at DLD was talking about trust.
I think the majority of the products we use and love,
we don't trust the companies.
I don't think it matters.
Yeah.
All right.
Well, we'll see.
Speaking of what people like,
someone and people having a lot of feels,
we'll finish up with Howard Schultz,
the former CEO of Starbucks,
very tech-savvy guy.
I've known him for many years.
He says he's running for president, and there have been a lot of feels.
Let's play a clip from the event that he spoke at that kind of sums up the whole thing.
Well, let's begin with what I said on national TV last night so I can frame the answer.
What I said last night is that I am seriously considering running for president as a centrist independent.
And I wanted to clarify the word independent, which I view merely as a designation on the ballot.
Don't help elect Trump, you egotistical billionaire a**hole.
Go back to getting Ray June on Twitter.
go back to getting Ray June on Twitter
go back to Davos
with the other billionaire elite
who think they know how to run
the world
that's not what democracy means
okay
someone doesn't like Howard Schultz
and there was a fantastic column in the Washington Post
where you know there's going to be a latte
trouble with this guy
and there was tons and tons of trouble brewing everyone wants DaVenti and stuff like that there's going to be a latte trouble with this guy. And there was tons and tons of trouble brewing.
Everyone wants to venti and stuff like that.
There's tons of coffee jokes you can make.
He's running for president of Venti Venti 2020.
Right, exactly.
That's my coffee joke.
You know what, Kara?
What do you think of this?
We should do what Gary Vee does
and have a camera follow us around all the time,
although you and I, I think,
have been together in the same room twice.
But I'm thinking you and I go into a Starbucks and start handing out cups to the employees saying, what the fuck is your boss thinking?
Yeah, he's not their boss.
You know how they had those cups?
The former.
The boss is Kevin Johnson from Microsoft.
But yes, he made it into a big thing.
What do you think of this?
He's running against the Democrats, which is fascinating because he's all mad about taxes and Andrea Ocasio has gotten under his skin in some fashion. So what do you think? What do
you think about this? I know him pretty well. Look, Ross Perot and Ralph Nader both handed
the presidency to, Ross Perot gave it to Clinton and Ralph Nader gave it to Bush. And that's what independents do.
They're spoilers.
And so the notion that he's going to create some great centrist movement,
I mean, it's very idealistic and it's unrealistic.
And the guy kind of summed it up perfectly.
Look, you billionaire asshole, you're going to reelect Trump.
I mean, that's a pretty heavy dose of truth, I think.
It's too bad.
My sense of him is he's a very thoughtful, civic-minded guy.
He is.
I think he's a principled guy.
I think he could do a tremendous amount of good.
I think what he should do is what Sheldon Adelson does
and have this Agora in Seattle
and basically hand out a couple hundred million bucks
to the people he likes and promote his values
and then go be ambassador to Britain or something.
Yeah.
But running as an independent, it's just terrible.
He doesn't give away a lot of money.
He's very thoughtful.
He's written me several thoughtful emails about what he wanted to do.
And so I don't know.
It's interesting.
You're right.
You don't want him to be the spoiler here in a situation
given that there's 412 Democrats running for office,
including Bloomberg who's moved sort of over to the Democratic Party.
Anyway, it's going to be fascinating to watch as we move forward.
We're going to take a short break and when we get back, we'll be talking about wins and
fails and all the other people who got ratioed this week.
And I have to give congratulations to Scott for another fantastic prediction.
Fox Creative.
This is advertiser content from Zelle.
When you picture an online scammer, what do you see?
For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting,
crouched over their computer with a hoodie on,
just kind of typing away in the middle of the night.
And honestly, that's not what it is anymore.
That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter.
These days, online scams look more like crime syndicates than individual con artists. That's not what it is anymore. That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter.
These days, online scams look more like crime syndicates than individual con artists.
And they're making bank.
Last year, scammers made off with more than $10 billion.
It's mind-blowing to see the kind of infrastructure that's been built to facilitate scamming at scale.
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of scam centers all around the world.
These are very savvy business people.
These are organized criminal rings.
And so once we understand the magnitude of this problem,
we can protect people better.
One challenge that fraud fighters like Ian face is that scam victims sometimes feel too ashamed to discuss what happened to them. But
Ian says one of our best defenses is simple. We need to talk to each other. We need to have those
awkward conversations around what do you do if you have text messages you don't recognize?
What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive?
Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam, but he fell
victim. And we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to
work together to protect each other. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash
Zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. been completely revamped for urban adventure. From the design and styling to the performance,
all the way to features like the Bose Personal Plus sound system, you can get closer to everything
you love about city life in the all-new, reimagined Nissan Kicks. Learn more at
www.nissanusa.com slash 2025 dash kicks. Available feature, Bose is a registered
trademark of the Bose Corporation.
Okay, we're back to our show. Scott, we're going to go to wins and fails. We're going to go to predictions at the end because you are clairvoyant again. But obviously, Nancy Pelosi and the people going back to work was a big win for Nancy Pelosi and the workers.
Thoughts?
You're right.
Huge win for her.
I think a lot of people doubted her leadership.
She had, you know, there was some noise about her not being the best Speaker of the House.
And she's been outstanding.
I mean, she's really kind of, you know, say my name, Nancy Pelosi.
This is the Heisenberg of, I don't know if you watch Breaking Bad, but she's just an incredible, she's shown incredible leadership.
And if you're a Democrat, you were really excited to kind of see her basically just, you know, body slam the president.
If you go in the middle of the country and the rest of the country, it's not about political victories.
It's about the fact that the greatest democracy and experiment in the history of mankind
was shut down. And I don't think it's any accident that Russian bombers are trolling our coast or
that Venezuelan politics are being infiltrated by foreign entities, because I think people are
bumping us now. I think they see us as weak. I think when the government shuts down, it reflects
weakness to the rest of the world. So I think it's generally, which is bad for America. Yeah, I would agree. I would agree. And it also, when there's, when even
the Republicans are arguing with each other, which they are today about Syria and all kinds of things
about shutting down the, do you, we're going to get to your prediction in a minute, but they,
you know, the fighting now between Trump and the entire Congress, which is interesting. I'm not so
sure the Republicans are that fight fighting with him, but they're at least pushing back on certain things.
He yelled at his spy chiefs this week
because they disagreed with him on the facts.
His were made up.
Theirs were actual from actual doing work.
So it should be a very interesting couple of months,
I think, going forward,
especially in the next few weeks
when they have to decide on this immigration stuff,
which doesn't look like it's going anywhere fast, pretty much.
And there are wins and fails, Scott. Anything else?
So I always feel, for me, you're like me living in San Francisco. Again, I'm a progressive,
but living in San Francisco is enough to turn me into almost a conservative because I just got...
So I always like to bring up a win that you would never in a million years say is a win.
I was on Fox on Tuesday.
I was in the green room with Chris Christie.
Who were you on?
Were you on...
You know, I was on
Stuart Varney. I love Stuart Varney.
I think he's a gentleman and a scholar.
I like Varney. I really like
Neil Cavuto, too.
I'm equal opportunity.
I'm a total media whore.
I'll pretty much go anywhere you ask me.
We all understand that, Scott.
Anyways, I was in the room with Chris Christie,
and I actually think Chris Christie, his media tour around his book,
I think it's been a win for him.
I think he comes across as smart.
I don't like his politics,
but I do think he comes across as smart and a straight't like his politics, but I do think he comes across
as smart and a straight shooter. And I don't think his career is over. What I don't understand is how
naive he was that he thought he was going to get a job in administration where he put a family
member's father in jail. I mean, was he really shocked he didn't get a job? I know. That kind
of people have a tendency not to forget when you put their dads in jail, which he did to Jared.
Yeah. He doubled down on it too. He's like, that was the most disgusting prosecution. That kind of – people have a tendency not to forget when you put their dads in jail, which he did to Jared.
Yeah.
But I thought it was a win for him. He doubled down on it too.
He's like, that was the most disgusting prosecution.
I was glad I did it.
Like he's not even backing off that in a lot of ways.
Yeah, he's not apologizing.
But have you seen any of the media interviews he's done over the last 24 hours?
Yeah, he's good.
He's always very – he's a smart man.
Although, you know, I don't love his denials of what happened in wherever the heck when he was stopping up the traffic on the bridge.
Bridgegate?
Yeah, Bridgegate.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think he's a liar about that.
I think all his people did it.
I don't, I think.
Anyways, my win, Governor Christie.
Okay, all right.
Your win.
My win is historian Rutger Bregman, who called out the billionaires at Davos for not talking about tax avoidance. And he got a back, him and Winnie Bayanima from Oxfam had a back and forth
with someone I know very well, the former CFO of Yahoo, Ken Goldman, about it.
Let's listen to Mr. Bregman talk about this.
The answer is very simple.
Just stop talking about philanthropy and start talking about taxes.
Taxes, taxes.
I mean, just two days ago, there was a billionaire in here, what's his name? Michael Dell. just stop talking about philanthropy and start talking about taxes taxes taxes we need to i mean
just two days ago there was a billionaire in here what's his name michael dell and uh he asked a
question like name me one country where a top marginal tax rate of 70 has actually worked
and you know i'm a historian the united states that's where it has actually worked in the 1950s
during republican president eisenhower you know the war veteran the top has actually worked in the 1950s during Republican President Eisenhower
You know the war veteran the top marginal tax rate in the US was 91%
For people like Michael Dell, you know the top estate tax for people like Michael Dell was more than 70%
I mean, this is not rocket science. I mean we can talk for a very long time about all these stupid philanthropy schemes
We can divide bono once more. Come on, we've got to be talking about taxes.
That's it, taxes, taxes, taxes.
All the rest is bullshit, in my opinion.
Thank you.
So here he is, making the salient point that we had it in this country for years.
This is not...
I love we can talk for a very long time about all these stupid philanthropy schemes.
We can invite Bono once more, that was my favorite.
What do you think of this? Taxes, taxes, taxes. You don't like taxes, I'm guessing.
Well, complexity favors the wealthy in our tax system slowly but surely, whether it's capital
gains on stocks, the top 1% on 50% of the stocks. So capital gains tax deduction is nothing but a
transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.
Even I would argue mortgage tax, mortgage interest tax deduction is nothing but a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.
Because who owns homes?
Old rich people who rents young middle class people.
So our tax system slowly but surely has been nothing but an elegant transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.
I would love somebody to do an analysis.
from the poor to the rich.
I would love somebody to do an analysis.
I believe the most valuable company in the world and the wealthiest man in the world,
Amazon and Jeff Bezos respectively,
have not only not paid any tax,
but I believe they've been subsidized by the government.
I think when New York gives $3 billion in subsidies to Amazon
as a function of this incredibly deft gamification of the Commonwealth,
with Bezos owning 16% of the company,
effectively the government has written a check to Jeff Bezos personally
for $500 million.
And if you look at what Bezos has likely done with his wealth,
he never sells shares, so he never incurs a tax liability.
He just borrows against his shares from J.P. Morgan
at probably a 2% interest rate,
and keeps rolling, but never actually pays taxes.
And then he'll put all his wealth into trusts,
and it'll be transferred without taxes.
So he's basically building a dynasty that's been subsidized by taxpayers.
The wealthiest man in the world, the most valuable company in the world,
not paying any taxes. Yeah, but we can invite Bono once more.
That's what we can do.
I think this does resonate with a lot of people.
Or someone from Brazil who paints with their feet.
You've got to find someone who paints with their feet.
You know, I think it does resonate in this election.
I think this topic is going to be a bit,
what do we do about the rich kind of thing.
I think it's really interesting because the Silicon Valley people
all of a sudden are like, rah, taxes.
It's really fascinating because I think they're sort of in the know
that they're not really paying their fair share
and how it ruins innovation.
And they'll trot out everything else.
But it's a really interesting thing
that it's being discussed as much as it is.
I don't know if it'll go anywhere
because it's not just Bregman.
It's Ocasio and others, the marginal tax rate.
And we'll see if it goes anywhere.
It will certainly affect tech
given how much money they all have.
So it'll be interesting where different tech people come down on this issue
and what taxes they're willing to pay or what's willing to go through.
So it should be an ongoing – it's going to be an ongoing story.
And some people will think of it as an attack, a class war kind of thing.
I'm not so sure that's the case.
I think a lot of people are laying out very good arguments for what's going on.
But we'll see if that matters.
But what's interesting about it, it's a nuanced argument because you know who gets really screwed, Kara, is what I would refer to as the workhorses.
And that is people who earn, call it between $100,000 or $150,000 in a million dollars a year in current income.
If you live in New York or California, you're paying an effective tax rate of between 48 and 52 percent. So the kind of what you call the wealthy current income workhorses,
the partners in law firms, the entrepreneurs, the people who don't pay their fair share are the
people who get the majority of their income through capital gains, basically the investors
and kind of the capital owners. But the people who do get, who do I think pay an unfair share to the high end
are who a lot of people would deem as wealthy, the workhorses.
So I think it's a nuanced argument, but we should have it.
I think the Democrats are screwing up by proposing even using the term 70%
that we should go back to a super tax.
I don't think that's a winner.
I don't think that's, whether it's right or wrong, it's not a winnable argument. And you can see the ads for the
Republicans now. Yeah, they can twist it because that's what they do for a living. They'll just
put the number 70 on the screen and go, okay, your choice. Is this what you want? You want 70%
tax rates. All right. We're going to get to predictions now. We get to run out. We're not
going to even talk about Roger Stone's back tattoo of Richard Nixon. I just didn't want to go there
at all. That guy, I just want him in jail.
That's pretty gangster though.
That causes some conversation.
He's such a weird.
I'm sorry.
He needs to just go away.
A Nixon tattoo?
He needs to move along.
I think that's actually pretty cool.
He needs to go wherever Cato Kaelin's gone.
That's where he needs to go.
Anyway, all right, Scott, someone on Twitter called you clairvoyant with your predictions.
But last week, I predicted I'd never buy a new car.
And later that day, it was announced that Apple laid off 200 employees in their Project Titan division, which is working on autonomous cars.
So cars are over.
I get a little credit for predictions.
No, I actually don't.
I think there's going to be autonomous cars, and I'm going to be in them.
But you were predicting that the government would reopen.
Now I need some more predictions about the national emergency, et cetera, et cetera.
So go for it.
Let's hear your predictions on this.
And you can take a run around, like a big cheering run around, whatever you run around when you cheer.
You're so jealous of the big dog's prediction.
I just have one word.
You're calling yourself the big dog?
Come on.
Who called it?
Who called it, Kara?
Friday morning we said, you and I said that the government shutdown was coming to an end.
Friday afternoon, they announced it. So my predictions are pretty boring. to just rock it up in the next three months.
Be clear, bad for our democracy, bad for the planet.
But this stock and this company have a supernova business model.
I think it's up 13% today.
And I think it's just getting started.
And it's dangerous to make stock predictions.
So I won't make a stock prediction. But I think the underlying business results of Facebook are just incredible.
Amazon reports.
Amazon comes out tonight.
Look for Amazon Media Group to all of a sudden be the third player in the Facebook-Google duopoly.
It's now the fastest-growing media company in the world, over a billion dollars.
Advertising.
That's true.
All right.
So that's your prediction.
All right.
Anything else about the next government shutdown?
Do you want to, like, go there?
Is there going to be one?
It won't happen, Cara.
There's no way either party wants to go there again because I think if we went to another shutdown, people would just move to, okay, let's vote them all out.
And the one thing that scares all of them is the notion of not being reelected.
So, no, the government won't be shut down.
So what about the national emergency?
Are they going to declare it?
You know what?
I don't have a viewpoint.
What's your view?
I don't know.
He'll probably try to declare it and then it'll never happen.
You know what I mean?
Like the lawyers will go to a town and it'll go on and then there's not going to be an office or he's not going to control either the House or the Senate, something like that.
I think he's kind of – he's never getting that wall.
And Mexico's definitely not paying for it.
In terms of negotiating, what is it, Sun Tzu?
In terms of negotiating, you don't want to,
unless you give your competitor absolutely no out,
if you give them no out, what you're basically saying,
I'm going to slaughter you.
And I think the Democrats and Pelosi have won.
And I think for them to give a little bit,
whatever that little bit might look like, such that the Republicans and specifically POTUS can sort of declare victory or at least not be totally shamed.
He's not getting the five.
They're never going to give him the five.
They'll give him some drones, a bunch of people.
They'll give him something.
Yeah, but he wants that wall.
He's obsessed with the wall.
He's got Ann Coulter on his back, you know, yelling at him about that.
So he seems to respond to whatever she says. Talk about where Cato Kaelin goes. Why do we even use the word Ann Coulter on his back, you know, yelling at him about that. So he seems to respond to whatever she says.
Talk about where Cato Kaelin goes.
Why do we even use the word Ann Coulter?
Like what qualifies her for us to care?
Because she has that.
You know, I was at a dinner party and someone said this and someone else correctly said because the president listens to her and he happens to be the president of the United States.
So there you have it.
You know.
What do you think is going to happen with the national emergency?
I think he's going to try to declare it.
I do.
He likes the idea of it.
He's going to declare it.
He's like, it's a little Mussolini move, and he'll do it, and then it'll go nowhere.
I think eventually he'll end up indicted somehow.
I just do.
He's a sloppy criminal.
So, I don't know.
That's where I see it.
Yeah, the Southern District.
Except he's a sloppy one.
Like, I think about all these other, you just eventually, you run out of tricks.
Well, when everyone around you has an ankle monitor, it's not a good sign.
Yeah.
But have you seen, you have two teenage sons.
Have you seen Honey Badger Just Don't Care, that video about honey badgers?
Yeah, of course, yeah.
Honey badger don't care.
Honey badger don't give a shit.
It just takes what it wants.
Whenever it's hungry, it just, ew. Okay, so don't care. Honey Badger don't give a shit. It just takes what it wants. Whenever it's hungry, it just
ew. Okay, so I think
the new Honey Badger is the Southern District.
I just don't think they care. I think they're going after
the guy. It's like Southern District. He's
the president. These aren't hard crimes.
It's like Southern District just don't care.
They don't care. They are coming for him.
They don't care. Yeah, I think we're going to hear
those two words, Southern District,
a lot over the next couple months.
It'll be interesting to see what happens with his taxes when they finally reveal them, which I think eventually will out itself.
But we'll see.
We'll see.
He's always also shown himself to get out of things, get out of jams.
So we'll see.
We'll see if he can keep getting out of it.
I think you eventually do not get out of jams no matter how much.
You know how he gets reelected, Tara?
How?
Well, this should be another lose.
I think the politically correct beliefs that went after Tom Brokaw for his comments, which I thought were wrong,
but I thought the other journalists on Meet the Press handled it really well and basically said, no, you're wrong. He had said essentially that the Latino community needed to have a conversation around assimilating better, which was a wrong, which is just factually
wrong. But the level of hate that came out against him on Twitter, forcing him to apologize,
I feel as if we're at a point where people are so sick of this indignance on both sides
that the way Donald Trump gets elected is he says,
he basically runs on a campaign of like,
you know, screw you, snowflake.
And I think we have to be better
about being a little bit more generous with people
and saying, okay, let's have the conversation
and you might be wrong.
But just the response,
again, we talked about this last week
with some of the stuff that,
between you and Fox,
this gotcha culture really hurts.
I think it hurts our chances.
Except he started it.
That's the thing is he started it.
I do think people are – all my Trumpy relatives, I'm going to see some Trumpy people this weekend.
They are tired of him.
It's like the show.
I watched that show for years.
Again, I'm the only person who's watched every episode of The Apprentice.
And I got tired of it after a while.
I think the show gets boring and it gets ridiculous.
And the stuff that you liked about it gets tiresome.
I think tiresome ratings is going to take him down.
That's what's going to happen.
People are sick of it.
And I know I can see my Trumpy relatives already being like,
oh, shut up, that kind of stuff.
So that's what I think.
They're fed up.
They're sick of it.
It's just like, oh, shut the hell up.
That's exactly what they're like. They don't want to hear it. They don't even want It's just like, oh, shut the hell up. That's exactly what they're like.
They don't want to hear it.
They don't even want to defend it saying, oh, it's just him.
They're just like, oh, God, stop talking and go away.
I think that's one of the things that I think.
And if the Democrats have a relative –
And who is Kara Swisher supporting for president or who do you like out of the gates?
Did you see – by the way, did you see Kamala Harris' talk at some point?
Kamala Harris, yeah.
I like her.
I thought she did a great job.
I thought she was great on the CNN thing.
I think she's gotten very appealing.
I've interviewed her many times.
Yeah, she was really strong.
And I thought she's improved drastically in her interview style, I have to say,
because she was a little flat when I interviewed her.
So I think she plays it right.
She's very appealing in lots of ways.
Well, so who do you like?
Her.
Who does Kara Swisher like?
I like Kamala Harris. Really? I do. does Kara Swisher like? I like Kamala Harris.
Really?
I do.
I do.
I do.
I like all the women.
I like Amy Klobuchar.
I have hopes for her.
We'll see.
One of them.
Yeah, you've always been a fan of Senator Klobuchar.
I think it is time to elect a lady.
I know I don't like Beto, as you know.
I'm not a Beto fan.
You don't like Beto. Stop it. Stop it. How Beto, as you know. I'm not a Beto fan. You don't like Beto.
Stop it.
Stop it.
How can you not like Beto?
Because he's a man child.
Oh, he's outstanding.
No, he's not.
He's not.
Oh, my God.
Women don't agree.
Well, no, not women.
A lot of women like him.
What am I talking about?
Anyway, we will go on to this.
You, me, and Beto at South by Southwest, we would slay it.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my gosh. A little Tex-Mex.
He's like every boyfriend that made me a lesbian.
I don't know what else to say.
He's just like the boyfriend.
Every boyfriend that made you a lesbian?
Oh, this is getting better.
Can we go another half hour?
No, we can't.
No, we're stopping.
Okay, Scott, let's see.
Oh my gosh.
I'm looking forward to seeing what next week brings.
Rebecca Sinanis produces the show.
Nishat Kerwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio.
Thanks also to Eric Johnson.
Thanks for listening to Pivot from Vox Media.
We'll be back next week with more of a breakdown of all things tech and business
and whatever screwed up thing Facebook manages to pull in the next seven days.
If you like what you heard, please subscribe on Apple Podcasts or wherever you're listening.
Bye, Scott. I'll see you soon.
Stay warm, Kara.
Support for this show is brought to you by Nissan Kicks.
It's never too late to try new things,
and it's never too late to reinvent yourself.
The all-new reimagined Nissan Kicks
is the city-sized crossover vehicle
that's been completely revamped for urban adventure.
From the design and styling to the performance,
all the way to features like the Bose Personal Plus sound system,
you can get closer to everything you love about city life
in the all-new, reimagined Nissan Kicks.
Learn more at www.nissanusa.com
slash 2025 dash kicks.
Available feature,
Bose is a registered trademark of the Bose Corporation.
Do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere?
And you're making content that no one sees?
And it takes forever to build a campaign?
Well, that's why we built HubSpot.
It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you,
tells you which leads are worth knowing,
and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze.
So now, it's easier than ever to be a
marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers.