Pivot - Disney earnings, TikTok saga continues, and Maggie Haberman on the Trump transition

Episode Date: November 17, 2020

Kara and Scott talk about Disney's Q4 earnings and the Board's decision that it will not declare a semi-annual cash dividend for the second half of the year. They also discuss the Trump administration extending the deadline for TikTok's parent company ByteDance to make a deal to sell to a US based company. Then we are joined by New York Times White House correspondent, Maggie Haberman, who talks about the Trump administrations last months. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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hours of entertainment, delicious dining, and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. Check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip to London and beyond and see for yourself how traveling for business can always be a pleasure. Hi, everyone. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. So there's a lot going on this week besides Trump's crazy tweeting continues.

But SpaceX, Elon Musk's space travel company, launched four astronauts to the International Space Station, a big deal. He also got in a bit of trouble for some of his COVID tweeting this weekend, although I didn't disagree with all of it. But in any case, lots of people did. This is another big step in commercial space flights. What do you think about that? I had one of those moments this weekend where, you know, kind of the new economy and technology all collided. I was, as any guy my age should be doing on a Sunday night, I was on TikTok and I pulled up SpaceX and it said, one minute 13, one minute 12. So I screamed to my boys, I said, guys, get down here. And we ran outside because we live in Florida.

And I said, I think Cape Canaveral or wherever it is, it's somewhere over there. And I said, I think Cape Canaveral or wherever it is is somewhere over there. And we were holding my phone up on TikTok and watched the countdown. And then there it happened. We saw this rocket launch. It was very exciting. And so I got sort of motivated to go in with my boys and try and understand a little bit more about kind of, I don't know what you call it, the space industry. And, of course, my boys lost all interest once the thing got into orbit. But it's a fascinating business. There's a lot going on here. It plays on income inequality in the sense that it's going after space tourism

as a means of cheap funding initially. Well, he's not. He's not. There's others who are. Musk made fun of that to me in an interview. I mean, he's not, he's fine with it, but that's not his. His is satellites and rockets and deployment. My understanding is at least initial. So let's go through each of them. Virgin Galactic is full space tourism. And it's basically a rocket strapped to a plane.

They get you to near orbit. They launch the rocket. They go into near space. You're there for five minutes and then you glide back down. And it's a quarter of a million bucks. Yep, floating. And they feel that they have survey results saying 38% of people worth over five million bucks have an interest in going into space. You go, you train for three days. You get shot up on this plane.

You take off into space. You come back down. Boom, bragging rights. But it's a luxury brand in the sense that it's about scarcity. There's much less supply than demand. Yeah, well, it's a glorified vomit comet, but go ahead. Yeah. Pretty much. And then you talk about SpaceX. My understanding was they were actually thinking of using the Crew Dragon capsule for perhaps a five-day visit to the space station,

which they charge like $50 million. Yeah, I think it's peripheral business, but go ahead. Right, it's a cheap source of financing, but they're basically looking at this to be sort of a, I like SpaceX a lot more because I think if it's more of a B2B play, they're looking at putting satellites into space, they're looking at infrastructure.

They have been, they have been, by the way, lower cost. I mean, that's his whole thing is lower cost deployment of space technology. And to their credit, they were pit against, deftly, I think, by NASA against Boeing. And quite frankly, they're kicking Boeing's ass. Yeah, they won a big award. They won several of the big awards. More than that, they launched a rocket into space successfully whereas Boeing

hasn't been able to. Yeah, and also the reuse of rockets and things like that. He's been pushing this and the landing and the catching, if you remember,

they catch him in these nets and he's been more and more successful or the re-landing of certain of the, because, you know, he's been talking about this for years and years,

this idea, and has gotten better and better at it. I mean, I think it's really interesting, the idea, and then there's Jeff Bezos' Blue years and years, this idea, and has gotten better and better at it. I mean, I think it's really interesting, the idea. And then there's Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, which is different, too. But I think of all of them, SpaceX is the one that's just, let's put some rock.

And he's not the only one. There's a whole bunch of different companies in Silicon Valley that are trying to do either low satellites, low orbits. A lot of people are worried he's going to put up too much space trash. You know, that's the latest thing is there's too much up there because he can deploy them so quickly that it's not going to be done carefully. And so there's controversy around that. But I think it's exciting. It is exciting. You know, this should have a big federal element, but it's going to be privatized in a way. But this is the rub, and I think the most interesting thing about it.

And by the way, Blue Origin, his mission is that he thinks we're ruining the Earth, and we need to take advantage of infrastructure and resources in space to better life on Earth. Like putting up a one-square-meter solar panel produces 100 to 1,000 times the energy because the solar rays aren't filtered or weakened by the Earth's atmosphere. So he has a totally different view on it. Also, he has space stations he wants people to live on, which Musk's make fun of all the time. But he too is talking about initially as a means of cheap financing, some sort of space tourism. But I think the most interesting thing about it is I think NASA has finally wised up and said, let's use the cheap capital driven by little Dick billionaires and the innovation economy. Have you seen them?

Have you seen those? Just curious. Actually, I think quite a few people have seen Jeff Bezos, Dick, to be honest. Anyways, I'm not one of them. That's enough. I'm not one of them. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, no.

He's an innovator. He should play by different rules than us. All right. Well, we're very excited about space. Anyways, we're excited about space. Anyways, anyways, what you have here is NASA said since 2002, they haven't had and see who gets there first so we can develop, if you will, space launching surplus or capability or infrastructure using the innovation and the cheap capital of the private sector. And I think NASA is the big winner here because they've effectively figured out a way. I think they should be the balance sheet, you know, trying to—

Exactly. Leveraging other people's balance sheets. Balance sheet and vetting. One thing, though, because I've been figured out a way. I think they should be the balance sheet, you know, trying to. Exactly, leveraging other people's balance sheet. And vet things, balance sheet and vetting. One thing though, and because I've been a big critic of Elon Musk, I think after looking at all these things, I think the smart money is definitely on SpaceX. I think they have, A, they've got the best storyteller in terms of this type of product, and B, if you look at results, to be fair, they were set kind of in a neck and neck race with Boeing with knowing, I think it's called the Starliner. I forget what the name of the capsule is.

I forget we talked about it a little bit, yeah. And they're winning. They are. What they're doing is really impressive. Anyway, I think it's fascinating. I think it's a great study in business and capital. Yeah. He will attract controversy and also praise.

He's an interesting, because he had a little trouble this weekend. Was this over his mild case of COVID? Yeah, he has COVID. He claims he's not sure if he has it, but it's a mild case. What's going on there, Kara? I'm teeing you up here. I'm not going to talk about it. I think he was talking about the test being not as, he shouldn't, you know, he and I have gone back and forth on COVID.

He has opinions about it, and not everyone agrees with him, and he doesn't, you know, he and I have gone back and forth on COVID. He has opinions about it and not everyone agrees with him and he doesn't agree with others. So let's focus on his space flights. Let's just, you know, it's so funny when, I have two minds. I was thinking of this as I was walking here is we think that we get mad when well-known people say things about areas they don't know about. Trust me. Trust me. I get that hate. Yeah, exactly. So, you know, I know everyone's like, oh, he's a leader. He shouldn't know about. All right. Trust me. Trust me. I get that hate. Yeah, exactly.

So, you know, I know everyone's like, oh, he's a leader. He shouldn't say anything. I'm like, in this case, he's just a mouthy citizen in that case. So I don't love a lot of it. Well, health takes a different level of scrutiny, right? And some of it's been quite irresponsible. But I don't think he, I mean, he influences people. I'm interested in the elected officials who say crap.

That's what I'm going to focus on, not just some errant person saying facts about things, he influences people. I'm interested in the elected officials who say crap. That's what I'm going to focus on. Not just some errant person saying facts about things, some business leader. He's not errant, though. He's got 50 million followers. I get it. He's probably got more influence than AOC. I suppose. I suppose.

But I'm not defending him. I think some of the stuff is kooky. But I want to focus on Alex Azar talking about if there is a transition. That's who I want to focus on. I mean, my God. Like, that's who I'm going to focus on Alex Azar talking about if there is a transition. That's who I want to focus on. I mean, my God. Like, that's who I'm going to focus on. In the middle of the pandemic, this guy is questioning the election rules. He should just shut up if he doesn't want to say anything.

But he doesn't have to go out of his way to put out disinformation. Anyway, okay, big stories. Let's go to big stories. Let's talk about Disney earnings and the one-year anniversary of Disney+. Yeah. Disney's Q4 revenue was better than expected. The company earned $14.7 billion.

A big chunk of that came from Disney's streaming service, which has over 120 million subscribers worldwide. Unsurprisingly, Parks Experiences and Consumer Products Division dropped 61%, and overall revenue is down 23%, which isn't as bad as I thought it was going to be. Also, the Disney board of directors, we talked about this, announced it would not declare a semi-annual cash dividend for the second half of the year in light of the ongoing impact of COVID-19. The company's decision is to prioritize investment in its direct-to-consumer initiatives.

It's interesting. I did a podcast with Chamath Palihapitiya where we talked about, he talked about this idea of putting money back by shareholders or stuff like that. What do you think about this? I think they should be giving any dividends.

I think they should invest everything in the future. Well, I think margin translates or is largely a function of emotion when you're talking about B2C products. And two brands that brought me emotion with my boys or a wonderful experience with my boys are what we just talked about, SpaceX and impromptu rocket launch.

It was one of those moments I'll remember the rest of my life watching with my 10 and my 13-year-old boy on the beach and boys on the beach. And then two, we watched episode two of season two of The Mandalorian last night. And it's wonderful. Yeah.

And it's the kind of anchor hook you need for a streaming video platform and they've executed perfectly. But the most important thing from a business standpoint was the last data point you mentioned, and that is Disney has decided to put their quote-unquote dividend on pause, which is a trial balloon to make sure that their stock didn't crash when they said that they were doing away with this. Companies have to learn, and I just did a call with the CEO of a large conglomerate. Companies have to learn that a dividend is a great way, hopefully, to return money to shareholders. But when your stock is crashing because you're not making the requisite investments you need, then it no longer becomes a great return. It doesn't become a commitment. It becomes a suicide pact.

And Disney had the cojones to say, we're going to put the dividend on pause. And now that their stock has gone up, despite them saying they're taking the dividend away because they announced great results, they will all of a sudden find their backbone. And they have the wind in their sail of their activist Dan Loeb saying, you can put the dividend on pause. They're going to double down. Why should they have the dividend? Let's just, those are financial machinations and not the ability to invest in the future. Like, they've got to start acting like a tech company a little bit more about growth and where we're going

and damn the torpedoes we're investing in this, this, and this, and this. This is a great, this is an important narrative. And what you have though, is some companies want to believe that they're teenagers and they're not. I'm on the board of a company, or was on the board of a company that was a Yellow Pages company. We did not have a bright future, but it was a great business.

And it was a business you could milk and manage costs well and literally just vomit EBITDA. I mean, this company was doing a billion and a half in revenue, 500 million in EBITDA. A dividend there makes sense because at some point, companies have to acknowledge they're no longer teenagers, they're no longer growth companies, and a decent way of returning shareholder value might be a dividend. In a case of Disney, where it still has a shot to be a growth company again, they shouldn't have a dividend. And there's some other companies. I think the next one, the next one, and this is a prediction, to put their dividend on pause is going to be the most indebted company in the world and one of the most interesting companies in the world

that doesn't get nearly the attention it should from people like us. The next company to put its dividend on pause or reduce it is going to be AT&T. That's interesting. That's been the dividend company of all time. Yeah, it's the dividend player. I've declared it bullshit.

They have to stop dividending people. It's not a way to keep, that's the way to keep shareholders through financial machinations. This is something Chamath and I also talked about. But I think it's really clear that they need to invest and they have to lean into the future and they could use the pandemic as cover. Like, we need to invest. Yep. And we're going to take our money and then you'll get it on the other side.

So, you know, it shouldn't – it should stop being a safe stock. It should be a stock that is leaning into the future. So, I love Disney. And we said we love Disney when it was at $120. It's popped to $145. The parks, the erosion in the park business is cyclical, not structural. Right. And with that freed up cash flow from the dividend, which will become a permanent reduction.

Invested in something good. They're going to be able to invest in more content. And they're going to make the gangster move to recurring revenue bundle, roll all those assets into the mother of all loyalty programs, cruises, parks, special experiences. It's not just that in content. I mean, look at Netflix is like killing it, putting stuff into content. They just put it, they're plowing it into content and it's just making with the Queen's Gambit or whatever, or the Crown or whatever it's doing. It's doing a great job.

It's doing, I watched by the Crown the other day. I mean, I just watched it last night in a binge. I mean, it's nice to have, it's nice to, you know, have 38 gallons of gasoline for every five the other guys. Basically HBO and all these other guys are launching on average a new piece of content every week, a new movie or a new series every week, Netflix every day. So they're just not getting around it. They've all brought square guns to howitzer fights, so they either need to load up or they need to find a different business model. That's right. They're in the content business, get into content, and the others are going to do it. By the way, I watched Hulu's Kristen Stewart, Lesbian Roncom, which was fantastic.

Was it good? What's it called? I can't, I'm not supposed to talk about it, but it was great. You're not supposed to talk about it? Because it doesn't come out for a few days. I can't review it. I feel triggered. How come heterosexual jerks, lame heterosexual jerks, didn't get a preview of the rom-com? It's just good. That is discrimination.

Yeah, I'm not going to give it any other information. That is discrimination. I might have, I may have her. I should get to see the new Adam Sandler film then. No, you don't. I don't know. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we talk about. Tacky heterosexual film.

I should get a chance to see them. Listen to me quiet. Okay. Quiet down there. Listen to me quiet. From in the night kitchen. Quiet down there is my new thing. We'll talk about TikTok's latest chapter.

We'll be joined by friend of Pivot, New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman, who we cannot keep waiting. She's very important compared to us. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night. And honestly, that's not what it is anymore.

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All right, Scott, we're back. And so is the TikTok saga, which never ends. The Trump administration has given the Chinese-owned social media app more time to reach a deal to sell the app in the United States. I got to check in with Oracle and the rest. I think they've forgotten about it. to sell the app in the United States. I got to check in with Oracle and the rest. I think they've forgotten about it.

As a reminder, President Trump has signed an executive order in August that required TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, to sell any assets that allowed it to operate the app in the United States by this week. Now the deadline has been extended 15 days. This puts TikTok's deal with American companies, Oracle and Walmart, in limbo once again. I think they forgot about it.

Like, well, he was out golfing and not dealing with a pandemic, which is now going to be raging for the next month and a half or two months. So, Scott, what? Yeah, look, TikTok and Oracle only rivals in terms of its importance and interest right now is the Meghan and Harry moving to America story. It's just like, it was really interesting for about 48 hours, and no America story. It's just like, it was really interesting for about 48 hours and no one cares. It's just, this thing is totally irrelevant. It made, anyway, who cares? It's over, it's done.

It never was. What's gonna happen? Will the Biden administration pick up the issue? I think there's gonna be more thoughtful legislation. Bipartisan, yeah. Look, to be fair, I think that if Trump has a legacy that's positive, I think he got China right, strategically. I don't think Chinese technology firms should have unfettered access to our markets unilaterally, and we have no access to theirs. Or we have limited access,

just long enough for them to steal our IP and then prop up a local entrepreneur. But it has to be done through laws. It has to be done structurally. It has to be done, I think your word is, systemically. Systemic. And I think Biden and whoever, you know, whoever is the new head of commerce, I think they will come up with something thoughtful that may be bad for TikTok, but it's going to take a while and it'll be, you know, it'll be something that applies to all Chinese technology companies and impacts American technology companies. And they'll put together a bipartisan commission that'll include.

I wonder if Microsoft might come back into the situation. Come back into the fold. I think, you know, off the record, I think all their executives were like, ugh, this administration sucks. You know what I mean? Like, you could hear they were trying to be polite because they all try to be polite. But they were like, why do we have to deal with this bunch of yin-yangs like Peter Navarro? So maybe they'll come back, even the Oracle people. The great giant sighing you would hear from them, you know, trying to play, to be political.

They didn't want to be political. They wanted to take an opportunity here to grab onto a great asset. And so they sort of had to swallow a lot of crap. But, you know, I think cooler heads will prepare what they should do and where the real threat is. It's interesting that TikTok is like, hey, hey. They kept releasing, hey, nobody's given us any kind of indication of anything. It's an embarrassment. It does have 1,500 employees in this country.

It does have a very robust American business, and they need to run it. And so, if you're not going to, like, do anything, then let them go. You shouldn't let them go, but if you're not going to let them, you know, do anything, I just don't know what to say. It's a real, it's a, you know, it was a press release, as we talked about many, many, many times. And it also is an important issue. Well, we predicted. We predicted the mic. I mean, I know this. This is the problem with predictions. They're really not, on a risk-adjusted basis,

they're a bad idea. Because if you get it right, it seems obvious because it happened. And if you get it wrong, trolls come after you. But we said, we said when Microsoft announced their deal, that's not going to happen. And then when Oracle said it, what did we say? That's not going to happen.

And none of them have happened. And this is an opportunity because between Ant Financial and TikTok, there's a lot of wealthy Chinese, a lot of American investors who have a lot of upside should we come to some sort of trade agreement that allows these outstanding companies access to still the largest market in the world if there's reciprocal benefit for access to their market by our amazing companies. I don't think that's going to happen, but what is the solution here if you had to pick a good solution? None of them are great. None of them are terrific.

Look, I just don't think Chinese companies can have unfettered access to our markets when they engage in just access to their market is Latin or Mandarin for IP theft, which we then prop up a local entrepreneur. That shit has to stop. And if it means banning Chinese apps or technology companies, so be it. It's time to go gangster, but let's be consistent gangsters. Let's be good gangsters. Let's have a code. All right. So what does that mean here? I think that if the Chinese don't open markets to Chinese technology companies, we should start not allowing access to the American market of Chinese technology companies, including TikTok and Ant Financial and Huawei. I don't think there's absolutely anything irrational about that. All right.

But what do you think is going to happen here for this? In 15 days, they'll probably extend it. TikTok, nothing. TikTok continued. I continue to find out that SpaceX, that the Dragon, what's it called, the Crew Dragon shuttle is launching, and I run out with my kids on TikTok, and I see hot people talking about Black Lives Matters in 15-second increments.

So, look, I think TikTok continues to go. I don't think it— The bottom line is, look, I think TikTok continues to go. I don't think... The bottom line is, Karen, this is what is so dangerous, and it's a lot more dangerous than things like TikTok. There's fucking nobody home at the White House.

There's nobody home. He was golfing this weekend. He was golfing. I mean, there's no one... No, no, they're selling off the Arctic Refuge license. There's no strategy. Peter Navarro comes out,

who's supposed to be actually helping, blending private and public sector around vaccine distribution. Get him away from it. And he walks away from the mic because he knows he's about to be asked about these bogus claims of election rigging. So he doesn't have the testicles even to deal with this. No, he did. No, he did. He said, we're looking forward to a second Trump administration. Wasn't that Pompeo? No, no.

That was Pompeo and then Navarro did it too. There's no one home. Just no one home. Yeah. And that is really dangerous. There's actually important stuff the government does. No, they're selling off the Arctic refuge licenses. They're busy doing that.

They're grifting off to the side, left and right. But it is important for clarification here. And I think, you know, it would be interesting, what I would do if I was a Biden administration is immediately call the Hollies of the world, the ones who are the most vocal. I would leave Ted Cruz out of it because he's such a pompous ass. I'd call the ones who are deal with them and say, let's figure out how to deal with this. Now, I don't know if anyone could be nonpolitical at all anymore, but I think that's how we deal with this kind of thing. Let's work together on figuring out. You only have to peel off a couple, but another thing happened to me this weekend.

I went to Atlantic Avenue to take my boys to BurgerFi, which is an awesome burger spot if you're in Delray. Okay. And we got overwhelmed by 2,000, 3,000 people protest, the Steal the Vote. What's it called? Steal the Vote protest. Oh, those people, yeah. There's a lot of them down here. Yeah. And they are convinced.

I was watching them. I just couldn't get over it. I'm like, watch these people. I'm like, they're convinced the election was stolen. And what I wanted to, what I hope all of them realize is that as, I don't, I think Trump knows he's done. I don't think he even believes it. I think this is just for him a giant fundraising tool to pay off his debts. I think he has absolutely, even he is not stupid enough to believe that there's anything that's going to come of these ridiculous suits. And he's throwing the last person who's willing to just dissolve and incinerate all of their reputation, Rudy Giuliani, at this, not even quixotic, like idiotic. I mean, he's already moved into goblin territory. But these people marching, these firemen and these cops that have been convinced that the

election has been stolen are sending in $200, $300 to this campaign to try and turn back the election or count every vote, which is maybe a legitimate concern. Fine. Okay. You want to donate money to that? It's not going to that. It's going to pay off his debts. Yeah.

Yeah. It is very sad. They were here this weekend. It was largely a lot of, I saw a bunch of proud boys and they were just marching around. It wasn't a very big crowd. It was fine.

It was a decent-sized crowd, but it wasn't huge. Sort of like your basic food festival crowd. That's how I felt like it. We stayed away from downtown and everywhere else because it was, you know,

there were anti-protests against this and it just was, and none, there were anti-protests against this. And it just was, and none of them were wearing masks. Like, that was the thing, the whole MAGA group. It's really, it was interesting because when you see a BLM protest, it usually is 95% masks versus 5% unmasked. This was a flip, which was interesting to watch. But I stayed away.

I'm not going to, you know, the COVID number is already high. And one of the things you're talking about that, like, just like even in the, let me get back to the TikTok thing, is you've got to stop suspending disbelief on things and have an actual discussion of what the real problems are and the systemic problems here with China. But, you know, there was just an incredibly sad video of a nurse in South Dakota, I think it was, who was saying these people are dying. These people are dying and saying COVID doesn't exist and they're dying of COVID. It's really, I think as we go into our Thanksgivings, we should all sort of not discuss this issue. You know what I mean?

Just not allow it to be aired. One of the things, I haven't spoken to my mom about the election. I won't do it. I won't do it. I just don't want to have that discussion. I don't want to settle the air. I don't want to figure it out. I just would like to move along. Okay. We're here with Maggie Haberman, a very good friend of mine and the most excellent beat reporter of all time with the most thankless job in the world, which is covering the Trump White House. I will say that you don't have to, Maggie. So why don't you give us a lay of the land of what's happening right now? I mean, because it's like this morning I woke up and there were more crazy tweets, all labeled, etc.

So give us where we are at this moment. Sure. Well, first of all, thanks for having me, Cara. et cetera. So give us where we are at this moment. Sure. Well, first of all, thanks for having me, Kara, and thanks for the very kind introduction that I'll leave in your words, not mine, about the thanklessness of the beat. Look, the president is aware, based on what a number of aides have told him, that this path forward is slim to none in terms of these lawsuits. He wants to continue the fight. But what has been interesting today is even as he is doing these tweets, you have the national security advisor, Robert O'Brien, give a speech of some kind where

he appeared to acknowledge that Joe Biden is the next president. And he said, if Biden is indeed the president, and it looks like it's headed that way, there will be a professional, he didn't say peaceful, professional transfer of power. So what my sense is from people I've spoken to around the building and taking all of that into consideration is the president is going to continue to say this was rigged. He's going to continue to try to delegitimize this election, just as he tried to delegitimize the one he won in 2016. And he will be doing this all the way through January on his way out the door. But I do believe he will leave. And then I think at some point in mid-December, you will see the certification process happen

and the official transition begins. That is very delayed from what you would normally see in a race where one candidate won the Electoral College so decisively. But there is a growing sense within the White House that there is a divergence between reality and where the president wants it to be. Scott? I don't, I'm, the thing that strikes me is just how powerful Republicans perceive the president will be post the transition, because I'm just shocked. The silence is deafening, that nobody wants to acknowledge

on the Republican side what has actually happened here. Do you have any sense for why it is they are so concerned about coming out and just stating what the reality is? What is going on here? So, Scott, a couple of things. One thing I would say is you are seeing some cracks in that. I agree that it is mostly holding. But you have seen Pat Toomey, senator from Pennsylvania, say that it appears to be over But you have seen Pat Toomey, senator from Pennsylvania, say that it appears to be over. You have seen Mike DeWine, the governor of Ohio, suggest it is time to move on as he is watching the spike in coronavirus cases across the country. And that's where his concern really is, is how the transition works in terms of management of

this virus. But for the most part, you have a Republican Party that President Trump has largely remade in his image. He has brought in millions of new voters who did not vote before. He has increased his own vote share over 2016 by a lot. And you had Republicans down ballot do pretty well, which in part, not entirely, but in part is because the president actually, well, which in part, not entirely, but in part is because the president actually, despite all of the dust and drama around him, has helped rebuild the Republican Party in terms of finances and in terms of sort of cohesion. They are afraid of upsetting their voters. It's not just fear of the man, it's fear of what the man will do that the voters will respond to, right? And so you have seen the president tell his voters, this thing is rigged, this thing is not valid, this thing shouldn't end. There are millions of people who believe that,

even though the president, by all accounts, is aware that what he is saying is at odds with the truth. So when you say that he's aware of it, I'm reading these stories, not just from you, from lots of people, and like a lot of people reporting on it is he is aware, but how is it that you can, that, that, that, how do you manage to deal with that when you're covering this? When, when you have, you're not going to say what you say off the record, but it sounds like a lot of people in the White House are telling you, well, we know we lost, but we're just going to keep going on with this charade because it's good for either fundraising or it creates division. What's the end game to doing this? But Kara, I would say that that actually makes this sound a little more like a

well-heeled strategy as opposed to what it actually is, which is the president refusing to acknowledge what's happening and people then having to work around that, right? What I think he's doing is he's in the negotiating stage, right, with himself, with the country. And this is basically about making himself understand that he has to eventually leave. And he is trying to get what, in his mind, and to be clear, don't hear this as a defense of it, just saying what's happening. In his mind, the best deal that he can get, whether that is for some paid digital competitor to Fox News, which he's openly talking about, whether it is running again in 2024, which he is talking about a lot, you know, whether it is trying to ensure that he and his family don't face prosecutorial scrutiny beyond what they're

already facing. I think all of these things are in his head. And I think that having things work out well for him in some way that he can define as a win is what the end game is. But it isn't necessarily what you and I would consider a win. What do you think he does? What do you think he does post January 21st? If you had to bet, what do you think he does? If I had to bet, he's going to say he's running again. I think that is just the quickest and easiest. Whether he actually does or doesn't, I think he will form a committee. I think it will allow him to travel. It will allow him to pay for things like rallies that he loves doing. And then I think maybe he'll get a contributorship of some kind somewhere. It's very hard to be a contributor while you are actually running for president. Other presidential candidates have discovered that when they've tried doing both with, say, Fox News. But I think the easiest path to him to freezing the field and staying relevant with

voters is announcing he's running again. And then that complicates things, not just for Mike Pence, not just for Nikki Haley, but for a pretty broad range of Republicans who have been waiting for this moment to run themselves in 2024. So what do they do? Nothing. They don't do anything. I mean, there's nothing they can do other than wait and see what happens. Or they can try to get some separation from him about what the party needs to look like. But I think that whether there is actually a reward with voters for doing that, it's going to depend in part on what the first year of the Biden administration looks like. And what about his power? You know, I'm just, I just finished a piece on Twitter saying, I feel like he's going to be like MySpace at some point soon, just like the show was, or

Oi, or you could name a dozen of these games that came and went, that it runs out when he's part of the larger noise and not the center of the noise, that there'll be other noise. There will be other noise. And I think that's the degree to which presidents leave and their power is greatly diminished is obviously pretty well documented over time. But we have not had, I would say other than Bill Clinton, and with Bill Clinton, it was a little different because he had a major heart scare, right? And he had a bunch of health issues.

We have not, and he needed to rehab his own image after 2000. We have not had a president who has wanted to be part of the public life the way this president's going to want to, I think at any point in modern history. I can't point to another one. Teddy Roosevelt. Teddy, okay, fine. Teddy Roosevelt. I don't think that this is going, yes, there will be other noise, but I think his ability to keep kicking up noise is pretty profound. And it relates not strictly to having been president. This is a guy who has been part of the cultural fabric in the U.S. for decades at this point, and that's what he's tapping into. It's not just,

I was in the White House for four years and now I'm gone. What is your view? I feel as if Donald Trump, his behavior was shocking, but it wasn't surprising. He just sort of cemented our perception of him. What was shocking to me was, I feel like this was more of a revelation around America than it was around Donald Trump. After following him for four years and absorbing all these data points and seeing how America responded, what are your observations on the nation after these four years? It's an excellent point. And the difference between shocking and surprising is something I have said a lot. So I share that view. What I think has been unfortunate is to discover that somebody can make say that the blind spots on national media coverage of him has always been the assumption that things that were offensive to the national media was going to then turn off millions of voters. It didn't.

You know, they rationalized that for whatever reason. They liked him on specific policy issues. They felt like somebody was hearing them or fighting for them. They didn't care. And I think that in general, there are a lot of people who are not turned off by racism in this country who told themselves that the country had entered a post-racial period after electing the first black president. That's obviously not the case, but that is what they told themselves. So I think it is disappointing. And it's not just racism, it's abject bullying. It is demonizing

your opponents. It is only feeling that you are president for the people who voted for you. Exaggerating your success, raising expectant children. I mean, the list goes on and on. Scott, one of the things about exaggerating your success that I discovered in 2016 when we were reporting on him, I'll just give you a for instance. I remember going up to some caucus goers in Iowa, and it was right before the caucuses in 2016. And I asked a pretty leading question, which was, are you here at his rally, which was very well attended, because this might be the last time you get to see him. And they looked at me as if I had eight heads. And they said, no, I'm in a caucus for him. And I said, how come?

And they'd say, I watched him run his business. He's a successful guy. They were talking about The Apprentice and the degree to which the five borough view of him as a business failure, which was well-documented, just had not gotten into the rest of the country because it went against something they thought they had seen, people who watched him on The Apprentice. And that has been a pretty strong piece of armor that he's had throughout the last four years. And when you think about that, about the idea, it creates sort of, you know, the ability to attack the press and things like that. And you've been right in the middle of it, not just you, but lots of White House reporters. There's been a lot, although

you've been the leading person who gets most of the ire from all sides. How effective has been the attacks on the media from your perspective? Because it's debilitating in a lot of ways, and personally, probably quite trying. I mean, it is what it is. I mean, I think that, look, he's been extremely good at demonizing the press. And to be clear, as you know, he is not the reason that there's mistrust in the press. Mistrust in the press existed before he got there, but he certainly threw accelerant on it. And he is using words that we, you know, usually associate with despots elsewhere. We don't associate enemy of the people as being routinely said by a U.S. president about the media, where I think it has also had an effect. And to be clear, nowhere near what he does. But I do think that regular working of the ref

that other politicians do, the refs being the media, has gotten a lot more personal than it was prior to Trump. And so I think that he is going to have left this trail of sort of lingering behavioral imprints on how a lot of people act. Does it work for them? Does it work? Because Ted Cruz just seems like an asshole. Like, you know what I mean? Like, it doesn't seem to resonate. Without commenting on that. I think that working the ref actually works for a fair number of people.

I would argue it certainly worked pretty well for the Biden people. They've been extremely good at kicking up a lot of dust anytime anybody has come close to raising criticism about them in the press. So I don't think, I think working the refs is a time-honored tradition. I think that it has become more deeply personal in the last four years all around. Do you think that it's a moment, I mean, it's, my immediate bias is to go to, wow, we've turned over a rock and we found out a lot of very uncomfortable things about his supporters in America in general. But do you think it's also a moment of reflection for progressives where there's a cohort of mostly white, mostly middle class Americans who really resent or think that Democrats were never appointed, aren't supposed to be.

Their job isn't to police cultural issues, first and foremost. It's to improve their everyday lives. And it's easy for us to say this reflects poorly on his supporters. Isn't it a moment of reflection of what we've done wrong? By we, if you mean Democrats, I don't know that I can say, I don't know that, and to be clear, I'm not part of we, but I don't know that I can say that Democrats have done something wrong. I think it does relate to what I just said a bit ago about how there are, there is a feeling, I think, I think you put it well, that the job is not to police culture, right? So I think, again, that the things that certainly

the media thought would be disqualifying was not disqualifying. And I think there was a feeling that when Democrats, when Democratic candidates and Democratic activists were playing to that, that it didn't end up mattering. Biden won by really by not doing that. I mean, he talked about this as a fight for the soul of America. But Biden was very careful not to let himself be kind of pinned down in one direction or another. And I think that was one of the many successes of his candidacy. How do you look at the impact of social media on this election? How do you think they have recovered themselves? Do you like what they've done? Or how do you assess them right now with the labels and stuff? The Trump people? Or I mean, how Twitter has handled-

Social media, Twitter and Facebook and others. I think that it has made a difference, but it's nowhere near enough. It just means it's not, it's not acting as a deterrent on a president who's not going to be shamed by these things. So, okay. So now he's got a bunch of labels on his tweets. What does he care? Um, I think that it has been better than nothing, but I think that social media companies, um, have had kind of a, a, a both like an ungoverned space and then a space with

selective rules for a very long time. I have a huge question how Trump is going to handle it. Should he start losing followers once he leaves the presidency? And that's a different question than what you asked, but, but that's the main one I'm thinking of from my perspective. And I'm not a tech reporter, so I might not be the best to answer this, but I don't, certainly in the course of watching what Twitter is doing, I think that there's a ways to go. Ways to go. And how do you think it's affected politics? Because that is your area. How do you look at politics through the lens of social media or how it's affected everybody, not just Trump? I think that social media in general has affected everybody by making everything move much faster. And again, going back to what I think was the success of the Biden campaign, they didn't pay attention to Twitter, right?

They didn't pay attention to the conversation that was happening there and recognized that most Americans were not having that conversation or were not part of it. I think it has become in two ways. I think it's become bad. I think, number one, I think it's just become a bunch of people more often than not talking to each other and not our broader community. But I also think for reporters, and this is more insidious, it has for a lot of reporters replaced the AP wire or the Associated Press wire as how they get their news and how they get kind of bulletins. That's not good because the quality of the information is often not the same. So you, Kara, know better than anybody that I don't think that social media has generally been a force for good overall.

I think that I think there are aspects of it that have been very positive. But I think in general, it's it's it's place is perhaps overstated and has not always been beneficial. How does political reporting change then? I just have a few more questions. How does it change going forward now? What is the state of political and what are you going to do? I don't know what I'm going to do. You won the election. You're still there, I'm guessing. Nothing's changed. No, I don't know what comes next, but I kind of suspect he's not leaving the stage, even

if he leaves the White House. So I don't know the answer to that in terms of me. In terms of how it's changed political reporting, look, I think that it's going to be a challenge for reporters going forward. It's very clear, I think, at this point, and I think it took's going to be a challenge for reporters going forward. It's very clear, I think, at this point, and I think it took a lot of media outlets, and I'm not excluding the Times from that, a long time to figure out how to grapple with a president and candidate, but a president who says things frequently that are not true, that are lies, falsehoods, exaggerations. One of my colleagues, Mike Scheer, and another colleague did an examination of one of his rally speeches. And more often than not, things were not true. And so I think it's taken a while to get our arms around that. I don't think that that's

representative of what most politicians are like. But I do think that now that the media is doing more to call out lying or to call it exaggerations, I think it will be interesting to see how that trend goes forward with, say, President Biden, who is by no means, you know, on the same level with Trump in terms of saying things that are not true, but who has been prone to exaggeration or has told stories about himself that have not checked out. So I think it is going to be interesting to see whether there is a permanent legacy of fact-checking that is more durable than just Trump. In terms of how he's changed political reporting, I think that people are much more cautious about being used to amplify somebody's claims without making sure that every box is checked on it. Scott?

claims without making sure that every box is checked on it. Scott? Who do you think has the most momentum in the Republican Party? And then I want to throw a specific name at you, but who has the most momentum in the Republican Party for 2024 other than Donald Trump? I was going to say Donald Trump. Honestly, it's too hard to say right now. If you had asked us that in 2013, I would not have said Donald Trump. So I'm loathe to say who it will be. I just don't think we know what the post-Trump White House landscape will look like. All right, let me give you a name and give me your reaction. Tucker Carlson. I do not think that Tucker Carlson is a leading candidate, but I think that if he wanted to run, it would be impossible to ignore him. And I think he wouldn't be a leading candidate, but I think that if he wanted to run, it would be impossible to ignore him. And I think he wouldn't be a leading candidate at this particular moment, but he certainly would

have high name recognition with the Republican primary voters. Remember that Donald Trump was at basically 25% the entire time, right? So if you have another field of like 12 candidates, that could again be very complicating for people who are hoping to go by game theory and start picking up other people's supporters. I think that after the phenomenon that turned out to be the Donald Trump campaign, I don't think anyone can say that no one has a chance at this point. I think if Tucker Carlson wanted to run, I think people could not ignore him. Right. And last question I have is, when you look back at this many years, you must be exhausted, first of all.

At one point, you had like 16 articles in the Times when he was sick. That was when he was sick, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. What do you, the pace, can you give people a sense of the pace of immediacy that you have to be on? Or is it just this administration? No, it's not just, I mean, this is, Kara, this is generally how I've done the job.

I mean, this is how I did it at the New York Post. This is how I did it at Politico. When I had a blog, I used to get lectures about posting too many items a day and they were right. But so some of this is just me in terms of metabolism. But I do think because he throws out so much stuff, the demands have been great to constantly be on. You know, there was a big

wrestling with the reality of the tweets early on. Like, how do you deal with the tweets? You couldn't just dismiss them, but you don't have to cover every single tweet. You know, the 17th Mueller tweet doesn't need to be covered. But I do think that we will not see a pace like this for some time. And I think it's going to be an adjustment for the entire reporting class that covers him. They're going to have to downshift dramatically. So I don't know about not being mad. I just mean in terms of, I think that'll be true for Democrats, that there's going to be something, they're going to have to find different things to be mad about. But in terms of the reporters who cover him, I just think there's going to have to be a downshift on the pace.

Lastly, Scott? Well, I just want to acknowledge something. It's not a question. You achieved a first for any friend of Pivot, Maggie, and that is you're the first person that has ever come on the show that Kara is scared of. I'm not kidding. I'm 100% sure. I'm three minutes late, and she calls me on my phone, which she never does. And she's like, get in front of that mic. She's literally, she's like, Maggie waits for no one. Maggie waits. I'm like, oh my God, she's scared of somebody. She's busy compared to us.

Oh no, you are scared. I don't know what you've done. She is scared of you. She's like, come on. He probably is like invaded Finland. Well done. Wow. Well done.

Thank you for that. Maggie Haberman, gangster. I respect Maggie's time as opposed to your time, Scott. I don't respect your time. Back to that mic. Maggie waits for no one. Wow. I walked in on something

I didn't expect here. Thank you for that curfew, Scott. I appreciate it. You could have invaded Poland in the last 10 minutes. Seriously, well done. She's got shit to do. This guy isn't done.

She's going to be working until January 21st and she's probably taking the helicopter with him. Probably. Okay. This is getting far afield Alright, Maggie Nice to meet you, Maggie. Thanks for all your good work Thank you so much

Thank you for coming on. I'm not scared of you, just so you know Bye Alright, Scott, we're not going to have Donald Trump to kick around anymore. I'm kidding One more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails. The Capital Ideas Podcast now features a series hosted by Capital Group CEO, Mike Gitlin. Through the words and experiences of investment professionals, you'll discover what differentiates their investment approach,

what learnings have shifted their career trajectories, and how do they find their next great idea. Invest 30 minutes in an episode today. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. You know what's not easy? Marketing. And when you're starting your small business, while you're so focused on the day-to-day, the personnel, and the finances, marketing is the last thing on your mind. But if customers don't know about you, the rest of it doesn't really matter. Luckily, there's Constant Contact.

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All backed by Constant Contact's expert live customer support. Ready, set, grow. Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial. ConstantContact.ca Okay, Scott wins and fails. What? That was very funny. You're very funny with the Maggie Haberman. I like that.

Thanks for that. I think she gets a lot of shit she doesn't deserve. Really? Yeah. God, my sense is she's so well-respected. Well, she gets a lot of shit on Twitter. Anyway, it's just like ridiculous. The focus on her versus everybody else is really fascinating to me.

Anyway, I'm sure I'll get attacked for that. But in any case, I don't care. She's my friend. Okay, wins and fails. What are they? Well, my wins are referenced earlier. You know, when you're at this point, and I'm not sure what that exactly means, but as a dad with 10 and 13-year-old boys, you're constantly hoping for and pursuing moments of engagement with your boys. And it sounds commercial, but I had two moments of engagement courtesy of SpaceX and Disney last night with watching the launch from the beach

and seeing episode two of The Mandalorian. And so it was nice. So thank you, SpaceX, and thank you, Disney, both to bring the important down to the, bring the profound down to the meaningful. I think their ability to capture people's imagination translates to a rational margin and shareholder value. I all of a sudden start thinking I might buy Disney and SpaceX stock,

even though SpaceX is private. Interesting. Those are my wins. What is your win? Once again, I was right about the Queen's Gambit. Now I'm going to say, actually, I'd never watched The Crown before, but I'm watching the Diana season, which is season four.

Doesn't Margaret Thatcher play a role in that? She does. Gillian Anderson. Gillian? Whatever. Her. The lady from that alien show. She is amazing.

I got to tell you, she does an astonishing job as Margaret Thatcher. What a character. What a character. And I got the whole group, Olivia Colman. It's all women who are really excelling at this thing. Actually, the guy who plays Prince Charles is excellent, but the woman who plays Diana, it's really—

Do they portray Charles as a total wimp? How do they portray him? Sort of. It's complicated. It's really well done, and the costumes are fantastic. And Helena Bonham Carter as Princess Margaret is a revelation. She's really wonderful. It's a really wonderful—I never watched it.

I know everyone went all in on about the crown, but this particular season is excellent because I, you know, we all live through that. So it's really, it's royal, I don't want to say royal porn, but that's what it is. And it's really well done. So I think that's a win. I was surprised. I literally was up till two in the morning watching the entire thing when I had other things to do. The fail is, you know, this continued ridiculous kabuki drama that's undergoing. It's really, I know, I don't want to get into that self-righteous hand-wringing stuff that's going on, like democracy is finished. I don't think democracy is finished, but it's just gross.

It's just, ugh. Just like you're like, let's move on. We got things to do. We got things to do, including dealing with this pandemic. And so I just wish, you see little bits and pieces, and the fact that we have to see little cracks versus a let's move on. Everybody is, I get the political reality of why they're doing it, but it's still, it's sad. It's a sad testament to these adults that they can't act like adults and

lose and win and then move on to their next win or loss. That's my feeling. Thank you. That was the nicest way I could put it. That's the nicest way I could put it. That's what I say. There you go. There you go. All right, Scott, what a difference a week makes. We'll see what happens next week. Hopefully, it'll be a quieter week because it's Thanksgiving, but we'll see. What are you doing for Thanksgiving? So, I'm planning on, I'm trying to figure out a way between testing and your pod. I'm trying to be mindful of the guidance from the CDC and not have a big pod and make sure that everybody's tested before we get together. But bottom line is I'm planning whatever it is. It's like planning D-Day to try and do this responsibly. So I don't know if we're going to stay here or if we're going to go somewhere.

Traveling obviously creates a lot of complexity, but it's like no Thanksgiving I've ever had in terms of trying to be responsible and plan and all that kind of stuff, coordinating, testing, you know, all that stuff, how big your pod is and then convincing everyone in your family. We're making our smaller pod. Yeah. Our family get together. And not share the air, right? So, anyways, I don't. Just, you know, we're just not going to do it. You can, you know, lots of people, people in the military do it. They don't go home for Christmas and Thanksgiving. I think that's right. Everyone can do it. I think that's right. It's fine.

You know what? That's a great example that our young men and women in uniform do a lot of holidays without their family or stay put, right? They don't have a choice to come back home. I think that's a very, I think that's a good analogy. I think across the country, you just, you know, stop whining about it.

It's what it is. This is where we're living. These vaccines are very promising, but they're not here and not here for a while. So just sit down and relax. Yeah, I don't know if you saw, but Moderna came out with one that doesn't need to be, can survive at temperature. No, it needs to be refrigerated. Yeah, but refrigeration versus an ice freeze. Yeah, exactly.

32 degrees Celsius, or it's 30 degrees or 45 Fahrenheit versus like negative 80 or something. Right, exactly. Doable, which is great. I think they're coming and that'll be great. But I think people should just suck it up. Suck it up, Sally. That's what I say. Yeah.

And the last thing is I would like to retire, I have to say, for people. The Karen thing. There were so many Karens this week, even White House Karen, which is Trump, or Space Karen, which is Elon. I get the point of the Karen thing, but it's essentially really rude to women. It's not nice. It's funny to a point, but I think the meme is done. You think it's shump to shark? I don't know.

It's just like, come on. You're just trying to insult someone by using a woman. It's fine. I get on. It's just, you're just trying to insult using, trying to insult someone by using a woman. It's fine. I get it. I get it. Because there are a lot of annoying white ladies. What if we start calling them Carl's? Are you down with it then?

I don't like it at all. By the way, off mic. I want it gone. I want all this bad feeling gone. By the way, off mic, I love the behind the music of, you know, because everyone's just so fascinated with us. Clearly not. As a threat, Kara just got angry at me,

and she pulled out a screwdriver. Do you walk around with a tool belt on? I mean, not to cement stereotypes here. Are you wearing a tool belt? I bought a little file thing for my book I'm writing. Flash is a screwdriver. I always have a screwdriver. Is that a Phillips or what do you got? What are you sporting there? A Phillips head right here. I'm very handy as they say. I'm very handy. I do all my own little things. I put things together like that trampoline back there. I'm not going to discuss that at length right now. There you go.

All right, Scott. Scott, we're talking Monday. We will have – no, we're talking Thursday and then the following Monday for Thanksgiving. What's going on? What is this? It's a screwdriver. Where's Maggie Haberman? Where am I?

Oh, my God. All right. Anyway, what a difference a week makes. As always, email us at pivot at voxmedia.com to be featured on the show. Do you guys know I'm going down to Florida to stay at Scott's guest house at some point? There we go. Vacations from hell. Oh, my God.

Vacations from hell. I want to see that little girl. We've got to do hijinks. A lot of mass wearing and everything else. In any case, we're going to go and plot. We're going to plot the future of Kara Switzer and Scott Galloway's relationship. I'm bringing my screwdriver, everybody. Don't worry.

Anyway, go ahead and read us out, Scott. Today's show was produced by Rebecca Sinanis. Fernando Finete engineered this episode. Erica Anderson is Pivot's executive producer. Thanks also to Hannah Rosen and Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify or, frankly, wherever

you listen to podcasts. Maggie Haberman, total gangster, scares the shit out of Kara Swisher. Does not. Oh, my God. Oh, my gosh. Sleep with the nightlight on. She's my friend. Sleep with the nightlight on. She's my friend. Sleep with the nightlight on. I'm respectful of my friend.

Have a good week, Kara. Thanks. Support for this podcast comes from Klaviyo. You know that feeling when your favorite brand really gets you. Deliver that feeling to your customers every time. Klaviyo turns your customer data into real-time connections across AI-powered email, SMS, and more, making every moment count. Over 100,000 brands trust Klaviyo's unified data and marketing platform to build smarter

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