Pivot - Election Predictions, Trump Media’s Dip, and Guest Host Jon Favreau

Episode Date: April 5, 2024

Crooked Media’s Jon Favreau joins Kara to co-host! They discuss Trump Media’s stock taking a dive, Jon Stewart saying Apple wouldn’t let him interview Lina Khan, and a new bill in California that could give employees the “right to disconnect.” Then, Louie Swisher joins the mix to talk all things about the upcoming presidential election: bad polls for Biden, an abortion vote in Florida, and disinformation. Listen to more from Jon on Pod Save America and Offline, and pre-order Democracy or Else here. Follow us on Instagram and Threads at @pivotpodcastofficial. Follow us on TikTok at @pivotpodcast. Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or at nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now and say you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.

And Scott is still off at Parts Unknown. So we have a special guest host, co-founder of Crooked Media, host of Pod Save America, and author of the upcoming book, Democracy or Else, How to Save America in 10 Easy Steps. I wish it was easy, Jon Favreau. Hi, how's it going? How are you doing? I'm great. I'm great. You know, how's your book tour? Oh, it's great. My book is great. Let's not talk about me. Let's talk about you.

So 10 Easy Steps. You're going to save America in 10 Easy Steps. It's a bit of a tongue in cheek title. We thought we would put together a guide for people who really want to get involved, not just in the 2024 election, but hopefully and hopefully we have many elections beyond that. election, but hopefully we have many elections beyond that. And since we started Positive America way back in 2017 now, there's a lot of people who were afraid when Trump got elected, and they've asked us over the many years how to get involved, what's the best way to be effective in politics. And so we decided to finally put our thoughts down into a book. It's a quick read. It's funny. And hopefully it's useful to a lot of people who were

wondering how best to help between now and November. Well, it's a very difficult time. We're going to talk a lot about this. We've got a lot to get to, including lots of politics. We'll unpack the latest 2024 election poll and discuss how Florida's Supreme Court ruling might impact the race. Plus, we have a special surprise guest joining us later. It's a John superfan. So we'll talk about that in a second. But first, Trump Media's stock is in the dumps. As we tape, the company has lost billions in value as the stock is down 33% in the last five days. That's not the only mess the company is in. The media company is suing its co-founders for failing quote, spectacularly to get the company off the ground and for, quote, breaches of financial duty.

The lawsuit seeks to stop the co-founders, both of whom are former contestants from on The Apprentice, from appointing members of the board or owning any shares. The co-founders claim an agreement signed in 2021 guarantees them eight point six percent of shares and sued the company in February over their stakes. 0.6% of shares and sued the company in February over their stakes. And just in case that wasn't enough, a Florida venture capitalist and his brother have pleaded guilty to participating in insider trading, seeing link to the deal that brought Trump's company public. Totally above board business, right? So let's talk a little bit about this company. Thoughts, given that you run your own media company? Yeah, no, we're no Trump media. I mean, it does seem- Well, you're not worth media. I mean, it does seem like people want to bet on Donald Trump. They're going to buy Trump media, even though it's not necessarily a real business. It's, you know, what, lost $58 million last year. There's all these investigators, like a money laundering investigation into the merger there's like there's a lot going on there um but i think that it's almost like it's a trump coin like a like a trump bitcoin and so i do think that like the stock is going to end up

rising or falling based on where trump is in the polls and how he does in november which is just which is just crazy and seems sort of unprecedented with something in the stock market like that, tied to politics? How do you look at it? I mean, because people in the left tend to make it into a joke. I think it's more important than that, that you could have foreign countries put money in here. You could have his supporters. It's a way to funnel money to him, even if there's no actual business in the background. I think it's actually much more serious, even though it's laughable at the same time. Oh, yeah. No, we were saying on Pots of America that he gets in the White House again. It is the you know, he's going to run into the emoluments challenge again, which is if a foreign government wants to curry favor with the Trump administration.

The easiest way to do that is to just buy up a bunch of Trump media stock and and they can do that. that is to just buy up a bunch of Trump media stock. And they can do that. And I mean, it's a scam like everything else he does is a scam, but he tends to get richer off these scams. And people, you know, you can say, like, people just want to buy it, right? Because he has got this huge base of support. And people want to help him get rich, which is crazy, but they do. And they want to support him. And so this is a vehicle to do that. And do you find it dangerous? Because you can have the SEC come in here and everything else, but maybe not if there's a Trump administration. Yeah, like, I don't know all the I mean, certainly there's a few investigations into it right now. I don't know what all the SEC rules are. But yeah, it is danger. I mean, it's not it's clearly not the way that businesses are supposed to operate or politics is supposed to operate.

But like once again, in this Trump era, we're just in this in this bizarre world where Donald Trump can scam a bunch of people and seemingly get away with it. Yeah, absolutely. So do you think this is his next criminal case? Probably of the many that will be added upon him. Well, he's got a few to get through before he gets to this one. Yeah, absolutely. So another thing is Jon Stewart says Apple wouldn't let him interview FTC chair Lena Kahn on the podcast that was an extension of his Apple show. Stewart's comments came weeks after the Justice Department sued Apple for abusing its monopoly position. The Daily Show host's Apple TV show ended last year over creative differences, including, according to Stewart, his desire to explore topics like China and AI. But this is

a new one, not wanting Lena Kahn, who is, you know, an enemy of Apple, I would say. Did the Justice Department's case just get stronger? Or how do you look at that, that he just sort of dropped this one sort of right in the middle of this interview? Yeah, I thought that was interesting. From a legal standpoint, I have no idea if this actually makes the Justice Department case stronger, just because I don't know if this is one of the aspects that they're investigating. But from a PR perspective, I was kind of shocked that Apple did that because like, did they really think that this wouldn't come back to bite them in the ass, that Stewart would never say anything? Because it, you know, it's just a PR

mistake and they don't make a ton of PR mistakes at Apple. But so I was very surprised that they told him like just point blank not to do that. And in terms of what's happening with his Apple case, how do you look at it? I mean, look, I think that Apple, the fact that they have uh this monopoly on the app store which i know is a big part of the case is um you know it's it's pretty anti-competitive right like you can't and i think that the so i think that the doj has a strong case here i'm glad they brought it and i don't think also that they would bring it if they weren't um pretty confident that they had a pretty strong case so you know we're not going to know for a couple of years. It's going to take a long time to work its way through the courts. But I do think they have a pretty strong case. You know, as a media person, someone who has a

media company, how do you look at that company and the power of tech in general? Yeah, look, I think they have too much power. I think that a lot of the charges against them that they're anti-competitive is true. I have a particular problem with the social media platforms. I think that the algorithms are making us all crazy. They're poisoning the information environment. And I think that they need to be better regulated from that standpoint. So I think that the social media and the algorithm issue for me is a much bigger issue than, although I think it's still a big issue, like anti-competitive practices. But from where I sit, and as someone who like thinks a lot about and works in politics, I just think that what they have done to the information environment is, you know,

we're not going to fix politics if we don't fix that. So when you think about what needs to happen, it never does, though. It never, ever happens. What do you point to as the single most problematic situation in doing something about it? Well, I think that you don't have, I mean, Congress can barely keep itself open, right? It can barely fund the government. So the idea that we're going to get significant reform legislation through seems difficult at this point. And so then you have DOJ and you have Lena Kahn at the FTC. And so you have like, you know, the Biden administration taking as much action as you can, but you're not going to have any real change unless you get legislation through Congress.

And right now you have a Congress that, like I said, can't really do much of anything, even though I think on some of these tech issues, there is bipartisan agreement. And there's lots of places where Republicans and Democrats want to work together on this kind of stuff. But I think once you start getting to once it becomes a big political debate, then you have some on the right talking about censorship. And so then, you know, the goals aren't aligned anymore. So I just think it's a really it's a tough thing to get done. But I do think that the I give the Biden administration a lot of credit for pushing as hard as it can with the power that it has. Let me ask you that, because, you know, I blame Obama for this, as you know, because I think you all were too tight with the techies.

How do you assess that? I do. I think. Yeah, we were. Talk about that. Why? I mean, you know, it was a different world then. Right. And it was although Obama tells this when we were interviewing him in November, he was like, you know, everyone credits like Facebook with a big part of like how we raise money, how we organize. But the key was people were organizing online to then like meet up in real life offline. He's like, but the key was people were organizing online to then like meet up in real life offline. He's like, and now he's like, so that's why we found it very useful and valuable because it was an organizing tool, but it was a real life organizing tool. Now, the fact that all politics and all organizing and all activism, everything is done online. He's like that has been there's that has become a net negative for politics.

It has let misinformation and disinformation sort of poison the body politic. It has made us all sort of crazy as we're on social media all the time. So I think we didn't see then what this would become. And I think if President Obama was president now, he would not have had the same relationship. Even if he was president, like, five, six years ago, right? He wouldn't have the same relationship as he did in 2008. He's out there now talking about the dangers of AI. And I know he's very concerned, very concerned. I know he is. I know we had lunch discussing it. He did say I was right. But in any case, I do think it was a missed opportunity. Last thing, a new bill in California is aiming to give employees the right to disconnect when they're off the clock. The bill in California's state legislature would allow employees to ignore after-hours calls without punishment

and potentially fine employers for communicating outside of work hours. Bosses would need to establish non-working hours that could also have a policy for emergency calls. If passed, California would be the first state to pass such a law. Those similar laws exist in 13 countries, including Australia, Belgium, and Mexico. John, you have an experience trying to disconnect for a challenge on your show offline. Tell me what you think of this law. So I have never had a job in my entire life where I've been able to disconnect. Sort of the deal when you have a job that's tied to the news, politics, government, you know this. That said, at least in this

company, I try really hard not to bug people outside of work hours. Or at least if I do, I certainly don't expect a response from them unless it's super important. But as you know, working in media, sometimes that's not very feasible because there's deadlines and news breaks, anything that's tied to the news. It's tough to do this. So I don't necessarily think it's feasible to do this for every job, especially it's tough now that we're doing so much remote and hybrid work. Because to do remote and to do remote and hybrid and to also say you're only going to be available between nine and five. It's just, it's tough. And I was reading a story about this and the legislator who's proposed the bill, he said that it would only require companies be transparent about their expectations for

working hours. Employers would still have the freedom to dictate their policy, which could include that employees be available around the clock. So I'm like, does this law really make sense if it's just going to be a bunch of employers just talking about it, you know, just setting different expectations anyway? So I don't know about the bill itself, but I do think it is very important to have chunks of time where you do not feel like you are on and that you have to respond to your colleagues or your boss. Right. Which has changed drastically. But you can't also have working from home if this doesn't happen, because you could also take time off at home and nobody knows. Correct. Exactly.

Is there a right for employers to say sit at your desk during those times because you're mine or not? If a bill like this passed, right, then they would have to. Right. Because if you're remote working and you're not there and then you like take passed, right, then they would have to, right? Because if you're remote working and you're not there, and then you like take a couple hours in the afternoon, but then also when it's five o'clock, you can't reach the person, then like, when can you reach the employee? Right, exactly. Do you have that problem at your business? How do you conduct? What is your policy, Jon Favreau? You know, we don't have like an official one. We all just sort of slack. And when there are big

news things that are breaking, or when one of us has a pod that we're hosting the next day, you know, the producers will work later and work odd hours. And what we try to do is if you're working later, or you've, you know, stayed up late on something that you can maybe like take a flex day later. I know personally, because I'm a, you know, I'm an elder millennial who has never really disconnected because I've been a political and news junkie for so long. But since doing offline, I have tried to come home from work at like 536 and now I have two kids. And so I try to put my phone in my office at home and just leave it there until like 738 o'clock when the kids go to bed and then I will stay up for another couple hours and do work. Do you succeed at that? Most of the time I do. Most of the time I do. Interesting. Interesting. Because it's like, you know what? Well, also I'm in California, so. So everybody's in bed. When it's, you know, 7, 8 here, it's, yeah, the news isn't really breaking.

In the morning I get up at like 4, 4.30 because it's my only quiet time and then I consume everything. You consume everything. And do you think this will pass? I think this is mommy state. I don't think it'll pass. I don't. It's also, it's a very professional class piece of legislation, right? Like there's a lot of jobs in this country, most jobs in this country, where this just doesn't make sense at all, right?

Yeah. You don't have a right to disconnect. You have to be there and get paid badly. That's really your right. Your right is to be there and get paid badly. I think it's a ridiculous law. I think it's such a canard. It's such a ridiculous law. People's companies should decide on this. Obviously, they don't want to be abusive to their employees, but they should decide on this with their employees. And then people either stay or they go dependent on that. I just, I don't know,

it feels like something that companies should work out with their employees and then to have their expectations either met or not met. And in jobs like ours, I mean, the issue is, should you text or Slack? So Slack people can look at text is right in your face. So maybe they can make rules like that around that. But I happen to like to text. So that's the way it's going in my workplace. around that. But I happen to like to text, so that's the way it's going in my workplace. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about the latest 2024 poll numbers and how the Supreme Court ruling in Florida could shake up the race. We have a lot to talk about. John, are you ready? I'm so ready. Fox Creative.

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and guides that make it easy to get home projects done. Out. Beige. On beige. On beige. In. Knowing what to do, when to do it, and who to hire. Start caring for your home with confidence. Download Thumbtack today. As a Fizz member, you can look forward to free data, big savings on plans, and having your unused data roll over to the following month. Every month. At Fizz, you always get more for your money. Terms and conditions for our different programs and policies apply. Details at Fizz.ca. John, we're back and we're talking about the presidential election. And we have a special guest joining us and a John Favreau superfan, Louis Swisher.

Louis, come on on. Hello. How are you guys? How you doing? Hi, Louis. Hi, I'm doing great today. It's a beautiful day here in Argentina and I'm living large. Yeah, Louis, I'm in Argentina, too.

I may not reveal that, but I'm visiting Louis here. We're at different places and he's studying for a year. He's at NYU and he's studying abroad. And so he gets an upfront and personal look at politics Argentinian style, which there's a lot going on here. But let's start with some polling. The latest numbers are out and it's not great news for Joe Biden. Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in six out of seven swing states, according to The Wall Street Journal's new poll. Trump has a multi-point overall lead in these states that increases to double digits when it comes to questions about the economy, inflation, and immigration. Biden does beat Trump on abortion rights, an issue we'll discuss more in a bit. John, let's start with you on these numbers and why Biden doesn't get credit for the economy? So I think caveat, right, any

single poll, you can't freak out over too much. But if you throw it in the average, I think the averages right now show Trump ahead by about a point. And then if you go to the swing states, he's ahead of about four in Arizona, two to three in Michigan,, three Nevada. It's about tied in Wisconsin. It's almost tied in Pennsylvania as well. So not great for Biden, but it's early, I guess. So if you want reasons for optimism, it is early so the numbers can change. I do think that the reason to your question about the economy, I think when you go through inflation, even though the rate of inflation has come down, prices are still high. And I think for a lot of people who were, you know, struggling even before inflation, having higher prices, you don't necessarily notice yet that your wages are

also going up. And so you're still, you know, it's a $12 hamburger and it's not a $13 hamburger anymore, but you're still pissed that it used to be cheaper. And I don't think that's gone away yet. Now, the good news is I think consumer sentiment, economic sentiment continues to rise. And you're starting to see in the polls, views of the economy get a little bit better as well. So it's slow going and obviously anything had happened between now and November, but it is heading in the right direction. But I do think that people are still pretty upset over inflation. So when you saw these polls, what did you think? Oh, Jesus, it's continuing. It doesn't change. It hasn't changed at all. And how can this guy have such a great lead? Yeah. So I think there's a few reasons. There's people who are

still up. There's people still upset about high prices. There is I think the fact that Trump is now the challenger really helps him because he is comfortable in that role. And, you know, when Joe Biden ran in 2020, Joe Biden didn't have a record that everyone knew and was pissed about as president. And Biden now has a record. And to the extent that people are upset about high prices, to the extent that they feel like, you know, they're upset about immigration, they're upset about they just the general Gaza, there's a general feeling that those sort of the world is out of control kind of thing. And the president, the incumbent always gets the lion's share of the blame for that. And so I think he's struggling with that. I also think memories are short, which is why you

see Trump get all these like retrospectively high, higher approval ratings from his first term than anyone would expect. I do think that the more we see of Trump and the more we hear of Trump from Trump during this campaign, his numbers will sort of settle back to where they were when he was president. At least that's the hope. That's what the Biden campaign is hoping as well. And so, yeah. And so I think that's part of the party. And then, of course, I think Biden's other big challenge is third party threats, because Trump has a low ceiling, but a high floor. And so he really has never been able to hit 50 in all the times he's run. But he won't need to if these third parties start taking away votes from Joe Biden.

Louis Swisher, what do you think about this? You and I have been arguing for days about this situation. I am more in the John camp, but you have a different perspective. Why don't you educate us? I don't know if I can, but yeah, I am. Well, I do really appreciate your comments, what you and John were commenting on. And I think there's a strong sentiment for the Biden campaign going into the 2024 election. But the thing that really bothers me is that voters have like, they've watched this movie before. We saw in 2020, Trump versus Biden, and now we see it again. And I think the electorate is generally pretty fatigued with these two options. And because of that, and the other things that we were talking about, and how the incumbent is usually blamed for the state of the country, regardless of what

may have come before the incumbent that led to these things, I think that's going to be a really big challenge for Biden. But one thing I really appreciated recently was an interview with Simon Rosenberg by Adam Nagourney in the New York Times. He's a Democratic strategist, and I thought his really confident attitude about Biden going forward was just something to admire and to try to replicate throughout the Biden campaign. What about it? What about it? Because one of the things you're saying, a lot of your friends are fine with Trump, correct? Well, yeah. Something I've seen really recently is that a lot of young people are so dissatisfied

with the Biden, the status of the Biden administration that they're willing to just let Trump come up into the forefront and just pass on for what he's going to, his vision of the country in 2025. And I think that is just pretty ignorant to try to just look past the accomplishments of the Biden administration and to give Trump a general pass up to the White House. Because I think the going forward with issues that are really important to young voters, like the war in Israel, the economy, the status of student loan debts, I think these things will be really, really, really much better in the hands of Biden than in Trump. But why are they giving him a pass? What do they say to you

when you're, you know, when you're arguing? Because you yourself are a little bit like, eh, Biden sometimes. Well, it's kind of hard not to be a nihilist if you're of the Generation Z. I think we're a pretty... Why is that? Because, I don't know. I think we had a lot of moments of hope in our, you know, the past 20, 30 years of American politics. But the problem is that time after time, we've been handed defeats or setbacks or laybacks. And I think that just really is getting to Gen Z. But I don't think we're going to give up because of that. I think we're going to fight harder.

And I think the thing that the Biden campaign really has to do going forward is to try to just make a pitch to the country that if you reelect Joe Biden, there are still options on the table. With Donald Trump, there's not as many options on the table because Joe Biden, there are legitimate criticisms of his administration and his campaign and his promises, whether or not they've been kept. But the thing about Joe Biden is that he is willing to reflect and reform. You've seen this on his stances on LGBTQ rights, crime to some extent. And I think that going forward, it's really just important to remember that with Joe Biden, you could have the potential for a conversation. But with Donald Trump, it's his way or the highway. And that is really dangerous. And you don't want to give that guy

a good card. John, do you have a question for Louis? No, I was just saying, I think that's very well put. I mean, I was, I can sense your frustration, both with your friends who don't care if Trump wins and you about the Biden administration. The way I think about it is, like, we have to avoid thinking about our vote as either a reward or punishment for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump. It's ultimately not about Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It is about us. It is about the future that we decide for ourselves. And there are two choices. There's Joe Biden's going to be president or Donald Trump's going going to happen. They're not going to win. We don't even know if there's any of these third party candidates are on the ballot in enough states to win if if they could write to actually get 270 electoral votes. So then you have a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. And I think it, you know, nuance isn't isn't people's specialty in politics these days. But like, I very much disagree with Joe Biden's Gaza policy. I also think I love most of everything else he's done. I have personal affection and respect for him. And I'll be doing I spend every waking hour trying to make sure that he and Democrats get elected. So people like, how could you do that with the Gaza policy? It's like, well, because there are a whole bunch of other issues because elections are a choice. Because Donald Trump, I absolutely believe would be much worse than Joe Biden, not just on Gaza, but yes, on Gaza, but on everything,

on every single other issue. And so what I'd rather do is exactly what you said, Louis, which is Joe Biden has shown that even though he is an 81-year-old, fairly mainstream Democrat who's been in public service forever, he has, even from 2020 to now, he's been very open to progressives not only challenging him, but persuading him to change positions on multiple issues. And he's governed domestically as one of the most progressive presidents of our lifetime and has accomplished quite a bit that way. And so I think that progressives should see that as a win, right? That they have a president who they never thought that Joe Biden, of all people, would be this guy who you could push to pass progressive, like really progressive legislation. And he's listened, right?

And so I think he gives you a better chance than Donald Trump does. So, Louis, what do you think about his age? How do you and younger people think? You're not speaking for all young people, but what do you, does that give you pause? So I think age is- Or age of both of them, age of both of them. Yeah, but that's the thing. That's the thing.

When we talk about age, we always talk about Joe Biden and we don't talk about Donald Trump, even though he's only like, what, three, four years behind. I think age, it could be really interesting going forward because not only is it kind of a detrimental thing to his campaign to some extent, depending on perception, but as Simon Rosenberg was talking about, it could be an asset, because Joe Biden has more experience than any president in US history. He's been the president. He's been the vice president. He was a senator for years. He knows how to work through the system to get things done. And I think I really appreciate your comments, John, on how Joe Biden needs to, he's more than himself. And I think that that'd be a winning campaign message, is that Joe Biden is a part of a team. He's a part of a movement. He's a part of a collective

of people who want to make this country better. And Donald Trump is just running for himself. I would just say on the age issue, it is a performance issue, not an age issue. And the reason I say that is because privately, everyone will say that Joe Biden is extremely sharp and there and with it. I have experienced this myself. Last Christmas, my family and I were in the White House and we ran into him and he recognized my mother-in-law from meeting her in 2018. He's like, I'd recognize that face. Then he saw us and he brings us up to the Oval. It was very nice of him. And he's like telling us stories and the detail of the stories and everything. It was, I mean, it was classic Joe Biden. He talks a lot. He tells stories and sometimes he doesn't get it all out right, but he is absolutely mentally sharp, right? By all accounts. I think the challenge is

because he is older, the stutter has gotten a little bit worse with age and he shuffles a little bit, right? Because he's got some back issues. And so he appears much older. But I think that during the State of the Union, we saw that when he needs to perform, he can step up and perform. And I think that if he can do that throughout the campaign, he'll be in much, much better shape. And I think that Simon Rosenberg's optimism will be warranted. So let me ask you one more question, Louis. You do talk a lot about Gaza. How important is it to younger people, more progressive people say, you know, not not checking itself and not questioning its own support of a really, really, I think, unhinged and, you know, progressively dangerous regime in Israel.

I really appreciated and agreed with Ben Rhodes the other day on Pod Save the World. I thought he had some really good comments on especially the recent world kitchen strike and the status of why are we still supporting this regardless of the fact that we've been shown time and time again that the Israeli government does not listen to the United States. And especially when we are sending them weapons and weapons and weapons and signing more and more deals to support Israel, but we're not getting anything in return or we're not getting any response from Netanyahu's administration on our legitimate requests for, you know, first of all, we send weapons without any knowledge of, well, until after the fact of what these weapons are being used

for with no checks and boundaries. And I think going forward, if the United States doesn't put a foot down, it's going to set a very dangerous precedent for not only our allies to stretch our limits, but also for the consequences of this unquestioned support going forward and what kind of retaliation that could face in the future. And it has resonance with you. I think because also it's such a visible crisis and that we're able to see time and time again on Twitter, on Instagram, videos of on the ground of what is happening. And especially with the algorithms of TikTok and Instagram, they're so engagement focused that these things are put into our face time and time again. And young voters- Can I ask you, do you think you're being manipulated by them? I've been raised in the manipulation. Our generation has been scrolling for years. And so I think to some extent we figured that out.

And we know when we're being lied to. And we know when to look for things like, I can spot an AI deep fake like nothing. You know, I know what it is. And I think. Yeah, it's older people that lose their minds over it, I think, more than anybody else. It is. older people that lose their minds over it, I think, more than anybody else. It is. But I think because we are the information generation, we have so much coming at us from so many angles all the time that it is just really, it hurts our brains almost to try to consider

all these global events that, you know, that for years and years before, you didn't really resonate with it unless you were seeing it. And now we are seeing it. And so that is why it's so impactful for younger generation. And also, it really goes against the morals that we've been told for years and years and years that our country stands for, not only on a domestic sense, but also on an international sense, and our quest to spread democracy around the world. So big air quotes. All right. So let's talk about what happened in Florida this week, because there's another issue. The Florida Supreme Court ruled that a section of the state's constitution did not protect abortion, effectively allowing the state to ban abortions after six weeks. But the court also ruled that a question about whether to protect abortion rights in Florida's constitution will be added to the ballot in September. So voters could have a say in what happens. We've seen these work before in Ohio and other states. seen these work before in Ohio and other states. John, could this give Biden a possible path to victory in Florida come November? How do you look at this? It's possible, but I mean, I don't think it's going to be, it's not in the top five or six states for them, but they're going to have the

money to try to play in a lot of different states, right? They're going to play in North Carolina, which I think is probably closer than Florida. But I think that what they're looking at in Florida is, like you said, the fact that when abortion has been on the ballot in other places, it has received huge majorities, including from Republicans and independents. So they're betting on that. I think Joe Biden is, oddly enough, in a lot of these polls, he's holding his number with white voters, and he's also polling better with 65 plus than he has been. And so I think when you look at that, and then when you think about the abortion amendment, they're looking at Florida and thinking, okay, well, it's worth playing here. The challenge with the amendment

is that with Florida, it's a 60% threshold to get abortion rights enshrined in the state constitution. So it's a higher threshold than some of the states. Ohio, the referendum there won with 57% of the vote. Right backdrop of the Supreme Court upholding the six-week ban, which means that the six-week ban basically eliminates abortion access in the South, right? Because Florida was the one state that hadn't banned it. And so now you're going to have a lot of people in Florida and all throughout the American South who just have nowhere to go to get an abortion. Right. And this is an important thing. I'm just curious, Louis, is this an important issue among voters like you, younger people? A hundred percent. Yeah, this is this is a really, really important issue for young people. And I think that and for me as well as a young voter, I think. They this is this could really be the key key instrument in domestic policy that uh joe biden could use to win the election going forward and i think um that the you know statutes like the laws like the six-week abortion ban stuff are infringement not only on women's rights but human

rights and a right to bodily autonomy and a right to self-determination and um if joe biden can make the you know help voters understand uh either appearances, campaign or speeches that this is much this is setting a dangerous precedent of government control over human bodies, that it would really, really rally support not only to a vote like this in the specific case for a law, but also for more general support towards Democrats and away from Republicans. But what's the most important issue for someone like you? Is it Gaza? Is it abortion? Is it what if you had to pick one going into this election? It's the the choice to continue making being able to make choices, because I feel like if we're elected in 20, if we elect Donald Trump in 2024, our ability to make decisions as voters is really going to go down. And there's going to be a lot of legislation that infringes not only on human rights, like in cases of abortion, but also on the ability to criticize those choices and the ability

to elect people that might or might not want to just continue what the American people are looking for. Donald Trump is a man who runs for himself and he is to do that, to continue to support his power, he has to restrict other people's power. And I think that going forward, electing Joe Biden would definitely continue to keep the power of the United States in the hands of the people rather than demagogic figure. I mean, people talk about, you know, the end of democracy as a shorthand, and that can seem alarmist. And I also think that you really need to make that tangible for people. But even if Donald Trump wins the presidency and doesn't have a

Republican Congress, which I think is highly unlikely if he wins, I think he will have a Republican Congress, certainly a Senate, hopefully not a House, but very possible. Even if he doesn't have Congress and he can't pass legislation, what he can do through executive action alone is terrifying. He has said that he wants to, and his advisors have said that they want to invoke the Insurrection Act. That's using the U.S. military against protesters. They want to use the U.S. military to also, and National Guard, to go into cities across the country and conduct mass deportation raids. These are not like new migrant arrivals at the border kind of thing. This is going into workplaces and communities and dragging people

out and checking their papers. He wants to pardon people who violently assaulted police officers on January 6th. Imagine the message that sends to other people who want to commit political violence that Donald Trump just let all these violent people who tried to kill cops out of prison. And then he wants to send the FBI and the DOJ after pretty much anyone who disagrees with him politically, right? It's not just like he wants the Biden crime family stuff and put Biden in jail. Imagine him investigating businesses. The IRS is coming after you. I mean, he's promised to investigate MSNBC, right? Like, it is, things can go downhill really fast. And if he wins, people say, oh, maybe the courts will stop him. But, you know, Liz Cheney said this to me when I was interviewing her, like, she's like,

why would he listen to the courts at that point? He has, he can, you know, they're going to say, you wouldn't, you know, go ahead and force your ruling with what army. And so I think it is I think it is possible that he's too lazy to do some of this stuff. Right. It is possible that he doesn't get to all of it because he's too incompetent. But I don't know, even if he does half of what he's already talked about as president, pretty dangerous, pretty dangerous. Yeah, he said it. He said it. So let's move on really quickly. A couple more things. Talk about the vice presidential pick. He's reportedly going to be drawn out apprentice style, which, of course, peeling off more Black or Latino voters is going to be important for them. And I especially think,

actually, they're doing fairly well with Latino voters. If you look at the polls, and even if you don't look at the polls. And even if you don't look at the polls, he just did better in 2020. But I think with Black voters, especially young Black men who are drifting away from the Democrats, Tim Scott, for some people, voters who don't pay super close attention, gives them a permission structure to say, OK, maybe Trump's not that bad. He's like a younger, genial seeming guy. So I do think that Tim's now will Trump want Tim Scott or will Trump think Tim Scott's a little too weird? That's a different story. So I don't actually know who Trump really wants, but I would bet that the campaign strategically

would push him towards Scott. Strategically wants to pick him. Correct. But what what who would you pick if it was just up to him? I mean, I don't it's a good question, like a J.D. Vance, maybe, although he doesn't want to get he doesn't want anyone to outshine him. Right. So I could also see him doing like it's going with Kristi Noem, because for Trump, it's all about the looks and the appearance of the ticket. Right. And he kind of likes that. But he wants someone who's going to be, I mean, in Trump's mind, the qualifications are, are you going to be so loyal that when I ask you to overturn the election,

like I did Mike Pence, you're not going to tell me no, right? This person needs to be able to do anything because now Trump's been bitten once by Pence, right? That bit him in the ass. So he's like, he's not going down that road again. So he wants someone who is 100% loyal and someone who also is not going to outshine him. So those are like,

I think in his mind, that's what he cares about the most and someone who's going to like make him look good. So if you go with that, it's, you know, you got a Kristi Noem or you got a, or someone who's just can be, who will be subservient to him, right? J.D. Vance is I think is a possibility as well. Louis, do you have any picks really quick? Yeah, I really agree with John. Looks, being low-key, and loyalty are going to be the most important things for Donald Trump's VP candidate. Personally, because he's like a master of keeping you watching until the ad break and after, I'm just going to hold off and wait until I see his

decision. But I think, yeah, probably somebody who is unquestionably loyal can hold the stage, but doesn't take the spotlight and just, you know, can get behind whatever message he's going to pump out next, because God knows. But somebody like J.D. Vance is actually quite terrifying, if that would be his candidate, for sure. Yeah, I would agree. He doesn't like your mama, Louis, just so you know. J.D. Vance doesn't like your mom. Anyway, John, I know you wanted to talk a little bit, to finish up this section, about the impact of media consumption and disinformation on the presidential ways. Louis just talked about it, like he feels that he's been inundated,

but they kind of get it. What concerns you most about how people are getting their information this election? And Meta recently announced a new setting that limits political contact on Instagram and threads and news. They're trying to lean away from it because they can't deal with it, I think, mostly, and they don't want to deal with it. But talk very briefly about what you want to say here. I'm really concerned about not just, I mean, misinformation, disinformation for sure, but the splintering of media and the fact that no one is getting their media from the same source, or at least fewer people are,

then from a campaign perspective, it becomes very hard to reach the majority of voters in this country. And the majority of voters in this country, even though they're going to go turn out to vote and cast a ballot, they just do not pay attention to the news like any of us do. And so then if you're the Biden campaign or a Democratic campaign, you have to think to yourself, all right, how am I going to reach these voters who are not tuning in? And if they do tune in, maybe it's, oh, they just saw a TikTok that could be true, could be false, could be hyperbole, whatever. And so I think the challenge in this information environment of reaching voters is going to be harder than it's ever been. So how do you do that? How do you reach them? You see the Biden campaign getting creative with like the types of outlets he does interviews with. Right. So he's not, you know, the political press in D.C. will complain that he doesn't do interviews with them, but he's doing a lot of other more creative interviews to try to reach people. a lot of other more creative interviews to try to reach people. Advertising is still sort of like the blunt force instrument that campaigns have because a lot of people are still watching TV,

especially older Americans are still watching TV. But with younger Americans, I think you got to rely more on what campaigns call relational organizing, which is the people in your social network, that your friends, your colleagues, the people who follow you and your accounts, like those are the people are more likely to trust someone that they know who tells them, you know, how to vote or who to vote for than they are some television ad or some campaigns just because the social trust is so low. So I do think that like that kind of organizing in these swing states and through

media and through people who have influential media followings is going to be really important to the Biden campaign because it's just really hard to reach people under 40 with traditional methods of campaigning and in media right now. All right, Louis, you're someone under 40, you're under 30, you're under 25. What in fact influences you? I would use action. I would use action because our generation, while we may not be so actively in taking political information or stuff like that, we are very passively in taking a lot of a lot of stuff. And I think, you know, as you know, I'm a Beltway boy through and through. I lived in D.C. for like eight years. So I am very, very fascinated and intrigued and interested in constantly taking on information about the political scene. And I but I think a lot of my people, my generation are as well.

And I think we want to be a very engaged generation. And so I think the best way for Joe Biden to go about spreading his message and campaigning, especially through channels like social media, is to act and to because, you know, social media is a reactionary creature. And maybe the best way to engage with it is to feed it, is to give content that not not like the cookie content, those short little videos, none of that. They don't like that stuff. But the no cookies. No, yeah, those those silly videos are not going to go anywhere but the meme channels. So I think that what he needs to do is he needs to demonstrate to the American voters his case.

He needs to show up. He needs to give good speeches. He needs to make good policy decisions. And I think those things could reverberate through the channels of social media and get to voters. So where would it be impactful for you? Where do you get most of your information? Oh, geez. You're always looking at different things.

Reddit, right? Reddit is one of them. Oh, geez. You're always looking at different things. Reddit, right? Reddit is one of them. Oh, Reddit's good. That's more funny content. But I listen to a lot of podcasts. I engage a lot with YouTube and that I watch a lot of PBS documentaries. I see a lot of MSNBC clips. Honestly, late night has been a really good source of information for me over the past

five, six years, which is kind of depressing, but also it speaks to our moment where we want someone who we trust to share information with us rather than just going to the horse's mouth. And I think like through channels like podcasts, through media figures like John Stewart or other late night people, I think those people are going to play a really key and essential role in communicating with voters. And the onus might even be on them to do that. Would you care if Taylor Swift backed Biden? I mean,

she did it before, right? She did it before. So I think she's probably gonna do it again. Her, her, her decision does not swing my vote. It doesn't swing your vote.

Celebrities should stay away from this one. I think, I think I am someone who believes in a lot in like keeping the personal life personal and um i think politics can blend into that but i think political activism doesn't have to so i think political celebrities could get political in their activism sense but you know the whole vote joe biden because i'm going to vote for joe biden message it could get a little fatigued by election day it's got to be real and authentic right i think i always think about normie voters. We are not normie voters on this podcast right now. But there are a lot of people, again, who will not tune in. And, you know, a someone that they really

admire is a signifier. And if that person talks authentically about why they think it's important to vote for Joe Biden, or they think it's important that Donald Trump isn't president again, I do think that can have an effect on people whose minds are not made up, which I know it seems impossible to believe that there's people whose minds are not made up. But whether they're not made up between voting for Biden or Trump or just whether they're going to vote at all, there's a lot of persuasion work to be done. And you have to try everything to reach some of these voters who just aren't paying as much attention. And sometimes that can be a celebrity endorsement. Sometimes that can be

a good friend having a tough conversation with them. Sometimes it can be a podcast they listen to, something they read. There's just there's so many different ways. And the other important thing here is that like all of us, if you really want Joe Biden to win and you don't want Donald Trump to be president, like we have the ability to be messengers, like the people who are going to play the biggest role are the people who have already decided that they are going to support Joe Biden, trying to go out there and talk to other people that they know in their networks to convince them to do the same thing. And I don't think that work's necessarily going to be easy, but I think that's going to be the critical work of the campaign.

That's a fair point. Okay, I have a last question for you, John. So I'm doing the Netbo question. I don't have the answer for Louis. He wants to get involved in politics. A lot of young people ask me about that. How would he do that? Between now and then, if he wanted to do something, work somewhere or do something, where would you say the best place for people, younger people get involved is? Because they always are like, well, what do I do? I just sort of watch videos. I do this. What would you advise him and others like him? 100% go to a campaign and work on a campaign because I think in politics, the closest thing to meritocracy is our campaigns. And that is because they are always

short on cash and short on staff. And so if you start off as a volunteer or an intern or a entry-level staffer in a campaign and you have talent and you the morning. I got coffee, got send around press clips to people. It was just a, it was a bleak job. I made $24,000 a year. But then when the Kerry campaign was broke and Kerry had to mortgage his house to stay afloat and a bunch of people quit the campaign, they needed a deputy speechwriter and no one would join the campaign. They couldn't afford to hire a real deputy speechwriter. So they just made me it because they thought that the campaign would be over in a couple months anyway. And then he won the nomination and beat Howard Dean. And so I became speechwriter.

And it was only because I was there. I was willing to work crazy hours. And, you know, I just... Campaign, Louie. There, see, I got the expert to tell you. Anyway, thank you, Louie. Thank you so much. Thank you.

I'll see you soon. You're going to come over and see your mama before I leave. Yeah, we'll tell you. Anyway, thank you, Louie. Thank you so much. Thank you. I'll see you soon. You're going to come over and see your mama before I leave. Yeah, we'll get a coffee. Good meeting you, Louie. Good luck. Thank you, John. Thanks, Lou.

All right. We're going to take one more quick break, John, and we'll be back for predictions. Okay, John, I want to hear a prediction. He really is a huge fan of yours. I'm not kidding. He's awesome. You've raised a wonderful kid. Yeah, the other one is good, too. They're all good. They're all great. Anyway, so let's hear a prediction from you. I predict that we will have a January 6th trial before the election. I think that the... Explain why. explain your reasoning. I know that people

are rightfully concerned about the Supreme Court. I don't think that people are so concerned about the decision. I think they will decide that Trump doesn't have immunity, but they're worried about the timing. I just I believe that there is a majority on the court, probably Roberts and then some combination of Kavanaugh and Barrett, if not both, who will very much understand that if they kick the can down the road and they wait till June or July to issue a ruling in the immunity case, then they are effectively granting Donald Trump immunity. then they are effectively granting Donald Trump immunity. And for someone who's worried about the reputation of the court, as John Roberts is, disagree with him as I do on a whole bunch of issues, I think that he will be way too aware of the blowback to the court if they essentially just grant Donald Trump immunity by kicking the can down the road on the case.

Yeah, I have to agree. I think there's a lot more comedy on that court than we think. I don't know. At least on this, at least on issues of like democracy and Trump, right? Like clearly not on abortion, not on a lot of voting rights stuff, but on these- Yeah, they'll be blamed for it if they don't do something. On the issues where they've decided on Trump specific issues, there's been more agreement, I think, than we, than you'd imagine.

All right. That's an interesting prediction. Well, we'll see. That would be great because I think that's exactly'd imagine. All right. That's an interesting prediction. Well, we'll see. That would be great because I think that's exactly the right thing to do. It's not just a good thing. It's the right thing to do. Anyway, John, I really appreciate it. We want to hear from you about what we thought about John's prediction.

Send us your questions also about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. John, that's the show. As usual, you're wonderful. Thanks for having me. Your book that's coming out is called Democracy or Else, How to Save America in 10 Easy Steps. When's it coming out? It's coming out June 26th. Oh, so soon. And then my co-authors and I, John Lovett and Tommy Vitor, will be on the road doing a book tour just like you are now. But you can pre-order it now at crooked.com slash books. Yeah. Anyway, he's also the co-founder of Crooked Media and host of Pod Save America and also a bunch of other pods that are terrific, and all of which are endorsed by

Louise Swisher. Anyway, that's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot and Scott's triumphant return from wherever he's gone. He will tell us all about it. I will read us out. Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Enderdot engineered this episode. Nishat Kerwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.