Pivot - Elon, SBF, AI and What the Hell is Up in Tech? - On with Kara Swisher

Episode Date: December 27, 2022

Enjoy this episode of On with Kara Swisher! From the high speed train wreck at Twitter to the extradition of a fallen crypto kingpin and an AI that can rewrite your dating profile, there’s a lot happening in tech right now. Today, Nayeema moderates a conversation with Kara Swisher and Casey Newton, the tech reporter who runs the Platformer substack. They break down the biggest stories of 2022. And they look at what lies ahead in 2023. Will there be less billionaire grift? Is this the year that AI takes your job? And, ok Google, could this be the year of revenge for Bing?  This conversation was taped in front of a live audience at Manny’s in San Francisco.  You can find Kara and Nayeema on Twitter @karaswisher and @nayeema. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now and say you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Scott and I are taking a little vacation, except I never take a vacation and Scott takes a lot of vacation. takes a lot of vacation. Anyway, last week I was talking about all things tech and especially about Elon Musk, Sam Bankman-Fried, and Mark Zuckerberg at Manny's, a bookstore and community space I love in San Francisco. I was joined by Casey Newton, the tech journalist who runs the platformer Substack,

and the conversation was moderated by my producer and partner in my on-podcast, Naima Raza. Have a listen, and if you like it, you can catch me and Naima on Mondays and Thursdays. Just search for On with Kara Swisher wherever you get your podcasts and follow the show. Hi, everyone from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. This is Million Dollar Listing San Francisco with a lot fewer houses. Just kidding. This is On with Kara Swisher and I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Naima Raza.

It's more like $44 billion listing these days. Yes, that is the price Elon Musk paid for Twitter and overpaid for it. But imagine how many houses you could have bought in San Francisco. Maybe two, something like that. Anyway, we're ending the year with, of course, more Twitter drama. Will he, won't he quit being CEO? Will he or won't he, Cara? Probably not.

Who knows? We talk about that for our episode today, which we taped on Tuesday this week. I got to interview yourself and Casey Newton, the tech reporter who runs the platformer Substack. Yeah, we did it at Manny's in San Francisco, where I've done a lot of events over the years, interviewing tons of people. It's a really great bookstore and community space, focusing on really civic stuff. I love it there. And Naima was moderating. Yes, I was. The event title was What the Hell is Going On in Tech?

Yeah. Which was a big topic to take on. And yet you guys did a great job. We talked about it all from Sam Bankman Freed, Scammery, or I should say Alleged, right? Alleged Scammery? Okay, sure. To big tech layoffs and open AI that will soon replace us. But of course, we started with Elon, your favorite subject, Cara.

Yeah, Elon. I think we probably talked too much about him, but it's an interesting topic. Anyway, let's dive in. It, Elon. I think we probably talked too much about him, but it's an interesting topic. Anyway, let's dive in. Thank you everyone for being here and thanks to Manny for having us in this beautiful space, this great community. Let's start off with Twitter. Okay. It's been almost two months since Elon Musk walked in with his sink. So I guess my first question for you is, has it sunk in yet? And what is the most surprising thing that he has done? I think it is sunk in and it has actually become a sinkhole. And now the company is now sort of in the center of the earth. It has sunk all the way in.

Yes, yeah. Sunk in. Deep in. And what's the most surprising thing? Why don't you start, Casey? Oh, I mean, you know, I assume you are following this story. It's probably not worth me rehearsing the latest developments, you know, the journalist getting banned, posting a poll saying I'm going to step down, the people of Twitter sensibly saying yes, absolutely step down,

him having nothing to say about that, but, you know, responding to random tweets from, you know, congressmen about defense bills. So we're fully all over the map. And look, this is extremely erratic behavior. Anybody who's telling you that they can draw a straight line through all of these dots is lying to you.

But I am. I will admit, I'm curious to see what happens next. So I'm just looking something up, but I don't know the exact price, but I'm going to look it up for you because I think the entire story of Twitter right now is the stock price of Tesla. I think it is. And it is today.

I think it's 137. 137.80. It was 150 across the 150 line. When it goes down another $10, activists will be attacking this company, and that's where the story really is, the real story of what's happening. The stock price for contacts was $400 almost at the beginning of this company. And that's where the story really is, the real story, what's happening. The stock price for Contax was $400 almost at the beginning of this year. Yeah. So I think you have to watch that. And he sold a lot of the stock after he said he wasn't. And so paying attention to Tesla, right now he's arguing with Tesla investors who literally would lick him up and down any day of the week and twice on Sunday. He's insulting them too now.

And that's a real, these people would stand up on anything. So I would watch Tesla and what's happening there. I think the most surprising thing is if you had to pick one of the people who could fix this thing, Elon would have been one of them in terms of support of Silicon Valley, money, know-how, love of the product, et cetera, et cetera. The fact that he has essentially lost his mind from a business point of view and a personal point of view is the most surprising thing because he really could have been capable

of fixing what is a very bad business. The missing ingredient was humility, right? I think if you wander into any business that you have never been in before and you have 7,000 people who've been doing it for 17 years and you say to them I'm smarter than every single one of you and we're just going to start the company over from scratch

there's no way that goes well for you, right? And so to me that is the biggest surprise is that he was not humble for one moment at any point in the last six weeks. Have you experienced him as humble previously prior to this? No. So it's not surprising, right? No, no, not like this though because

I did a really good interview with Yoel Roth who's hiding somewhere, I guess somewhere probably nice and he he was saying humility was what was missing and he's the one that stayed there. It is absolute chaos right now on Twitter. I mean there's like yellow checks and gray squares

I don't even know. There's so much going on right now. By the way, they have fewer than five designers at the company now, and not all of them actually design things anymore. So there's a non-zero chance that David Sachs is in Photoshop drawing up logos. That explains so much about the clip art that's happening right now on Twitter.

But he's done so much. He started off with layoffs. He pissed off advertisers. He dismantled this content moderation, this whole idea of verified. But is there anything that Elon has done that is a good idea? A number of things. What do you think? They needed to cut staff.

They absolutely needed to cut costs. I think he was directionally correct is like make a point of view. There was a lot of points of view at Twitter. So having a more singular editorial point of view is a is a strong idea and focusing in on subscriptions was something we always talked for years we talked about and folk but the way he's doing it doesn't make any sense and isn't a very good value proposition so there's a lot of you know the idea of a super app interesting probably can't do it they're all good ideas do you think? I'm starting to take the opposite side of it, though. Because at the end of the day, I will admit that, yes, had he implemented any of those successfully, maybe it could have been a good idea.

But at the end of the day, this is a company that made $5 billion last year and was not in crisis. And he came in and he started a crisis. That's right and at the end of the year you know we're now in this situation where you know one of the things that this is going to sound a bit self-aggrandizing for a journalist to say but i i will argue that um one of the reasons that twitter is an important company is it is because it is like a a real-time virtual water cooler for the entire western press corps right and it sets the daily global news agenda. Yeah. And we're now in a situation where the reporters have realized, like, we're not safe here, right?

Our accounts can be banned at any time for any reason. This is not going to be how we're distributing the news, certainly in five years, but maybe not in January, right? And so you're starting to see all of that leech out of the platform. Mastodon, a website that is almost impossible to use, is humming. It is humming. And it is the journalists who are making it hum. And so that's why it's just hard for me to be like, well,

Elon had a couple ideas. It just didn't work out. It was like, no. He had a clear flight path to $5 billion, and he fucked it up. Right. But I think it's because fundamentally the people he also brought with him, he always has been wary of journalists, but the people who brought with him hate. They have a, there's an ethos among the Marc Andreessen's and the David Sachs. There's a whole bunch of them that literally just think journalism, journalists suck. And because we're not sucking up to them at all times, they, they hate us. It's really, it's weird. And you started, you started to see it on Clubhouse, like, which, which I never went on because I'm like, why do I need to be yelled at by these idiot venture capitals? And they're always like, come on.

I'm like, no, fuck you. Why would I come to your idiotic party where you tell me I'm terrible? And so I think they have a fundamental, they think they can do it better and they talk about it a lot. And the persistent victimization that the richest and most powerful people

on the planet display, they're, and again, it's not, it's Elon's fault, but he's in that environment. He's in that stew of mentality about the press. That's really not necessarily unfair, but it's, he doesn't understand the relationship.

He thinks you're friends, but he's been in that for a long time, right? He, yes, he and I have, we had one year long beef over the stupidest thing I've ever experienced. Cause somewhere there was like, there's a room of 150 people and some tech titans standing here saying how journalists are too powerful.

But we're not. But that's their theory, right? Their theory is they're trying to do, you saw Marc Andreessen try to do Future. Yes. You know, and I kept going, media is hard. You know, he always says software is hard. I'm like, media is harder. And then it was terrible.

It just was, they're terrible at terrible. They're terrible at media. They're terrible at media. Yeah. I've been thinking about this lately. It's like, you know, Andreessen Horowitz is a firm that hates the media and is constantly investing in media companies. And the media companies are not succeeding. And I think those two things are related. Yes, I do too.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. This banning journalists from Twitter, banning journalists that were covering the Elon Jet story, that seemed like a low point between Silicon Valley and journalism. Well, and here's why, here's why, right? Yeah, go ahead. You know, Elon Musk and the lead-up to him taking over Twitter is outraged about, you know, some of the censorship that has gone on in this platform.

And recently he's given away a lot of, you know, internal communications from the, you know, pre-Elon era that talk about how there was a shadowy cabal that was making content moderation decisions. And this shadowy cabal, if you can believe this, and I'm glad most of you are sitting down, consisted of the CEO and the head of legal and the head of trust and safety. And they would all get in a room and they would make content moderation decisions. And there were reporters who were tweeting this out. And these are 150,000 retweets. Can you believe this?

Can you believe what was going on, right? I'm somebody who looks at that and thinks that's, like, how it's done at literally every company. What's the big scandal? Yes, yes, yes. And then, after all of that, in the aftermath of him being so outraged about the shadowy cabal making these, you know, decisions that are totally arbitrary

and totally unfair, he's like, these people are tweeting out public information about my jet, and they're trying to join Mastodon on Instagram, and I don't want to see them anymore. Get rid of them. Like, you could not write it funnier. It was absurd. It was.

I had to, like, look. He did overpay for it. So if he wants to kick journalists off, it's not the end of democracy. It's just not. It's just not. And he's going to do what he feels like doing. And he does point out, as Casey said, that this is one of the things that

I was struck by those Twitter files, which who knows if they're complete, by the way. The whole thing was done. The secret cabal was funny. It's a secret group of people. The management. It's a public company. They do it with my stuff all the time. Here's Yoel Roth saying to Kara Swisher that he was going to,

he was worried about the previous Hillary thing and because he was primed to do it by the FBI. And I literally was like, you fucking idiot who's doing this, whoever it was, it was Michael Schellenberg or whatever that guy. I was like, that's not what was said. Like, they can't even Google it and watch it.

It's like he's complaining that there's like a secret cabal at like Starbucks that's like setting the workers' schedules. They're deciding what shape the coffee should be. I don't care if the journalists get it. He put them right back on. It's his right to do it.

That's the thing. If he had just come out and said, I'm banning Taylor Lorenz because I don't like her, I would have more respect for that. Would you like to have access to it? Because it's going to,

obviously, happy journalists. I would like good journalists to have access because it's a great story. What I walked away from it is, boy, they tried really hard to do an impossible job, which Casey's written about a lot.

I've written about a lot. And it was interesting to see the inner workings. It wasn't that interesting, but it was actually in the hands of very good journalists. You would have gotten a wonderful, interesting, complex, difficult story. And that would have been cool. I would have liked to see that. I would have liked to see that. And what do you think he's trying to do?

I mean, obviously, this is feeding into conspiracy theories. Create a scandal. The FBI. It didn't work. It didn't work. I mean, but I think, like, look, this is a political project for him. He is a reactionary conservative, right? Like, the takeover of Twitter is a reactionary takeover.

And the whole point is to punish the people who used to run it. And so, like, this will actually probably be the most value that Elon gets out of his purchase is just the entertainment that he briefly felt watching people retweet him talking about the Twitter files. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He is he has moved to a very concerned. I think the problem is he's got no impulse control and it's made of it that it's going to he's he's ruining the rest of his businesses where everyone thought he was brilliant. And it doesn't take away the fact that he's brilliant. It's that he's out of control. He's not as smart as you think he is. And so that's, I think, the damage.

So recently he's put himself, the polls were open, and he asked if he should step down as CEO. 17 million people voted, I believe. Raise your hand if you voted in this poll, by the way. I'm just curious. Okay, interesting. Okay, so like a quarter of the room voted. Did you vote?

Yeah, of course. He blocked me, but then I somehow got, didn't block, it doesn't work very well anymore, interesting. Okay, so like a quarter of the room voted. Did you vote? Yeah, of course. He blocked me, but then I somehow got, didn't block, it doesn't work very well anymore, Twitter. So 57.5% of respondents said step down. I'm sure nobody in this room said that. Yeah. I wanted to say no, because I'm like, let's keep this going, sir.

Let's go on. You're really enjoying watching this high-speed train wreck. I am enjoying it. No. It's sad, too. No, it's not. It's great. It's great. It's great.

He's followed up, by the way, an hour ago saying he will resign as CEO as soon as he finds, and he says, I will resign as CEO as soon as I find someone foolish enough

to take the job. Ah. And after that, I will just run the software and servers team. Which is the business. Yeah, he will not be running the Twitter hardware team.

He will be running. It's not be running the Twitter hardware team. He'll be running... It's a promotion masked as a demotion. So, I guess three questions. Will he step down? Who will he pick? And who should he pick? Okay. No. I think he will not. In real terms,

no, he will not. He's paid too much for this muffler. You know what I mean? He's not leaving this thing. And, you know, I don't know if I would if I put that much money at stake, right? I think he may try to do something where he buys the loans so that he fully owns it. He pays half for the loans. The banks are about to put them out on the market. And so either he's going to buy them or Apollo's going to buy them. You have to sell a lot more Tesla stock.

I know, but if Apollo buys it, he can get money from the Saudis. He and get money um i think if apollo buys that he's in a world of trouble because they're another not nice group of mostly men who are going to beat him senseless um and they don't care that he's elon musk they don't care at all they don't care to have dinner with him or hang out with him or whatever um or go to mars with him or anything so i I think that's one of the things. So no, I don't think he's going to give up power. That means he can't get anyone he should get for that business. I mean, I named a couple. Brett Taylor, I thought, would be good. He was the chairman of Twitter.

He handled that beautiful. Boy, did he do well for the shareholders of Twitter, public shareholders of Twitter. I mean, Twitter is almost dead. Yeah, the shareholders made out okay. They fared out great. $54.20 is a great price for a company worth $10. So, a share. So, the other person I said was Stuart Butterfield would be interesting.

He ran Slack. He understands it. I don't know if he wants to work. And Susan Wojcicki, who has looked around at other jobs before. She's certainly capable. These are people that would understand advertisers, understand large systems. That's who I would. Not one of those people would put up with any shit from Elon.

Would they take the job? Do you think Susan would take the job? No, because you have to talk to him. No. He'll be running. He'll be reporting to you as your head of software. There's no way any of those highly qualified people would take that job. No way.

So it will be his minions. It'll be David Sachs and Jason Calacanis. Casey? Yeah. Okay. So I think that like, he will step down as CEO and I think he's going to name, um,

some, uh, like white male, uh, like Tesla engineer who was like canceled for a blog post in 2008 as like the new CEO. And he's going to be like, this is the only person who doesn't have the woke mind virus and like,

can be threatened. No one is ever going to have heard of this person. And, um, and, but then while that's all happening, like Elon will continue to just sort of metal behind the scenes and, you know,

demand that the check marks turn pink and, you know, all of that. Oh, I can't wait for that day. Yeah. He's not going anywhere. He's not going anywhere.

And who do you think he should pick? You like the three that Kara mentioned or? You can't say yourself, Casey. I, I, I, I can't wait for that day. Yeah, he's not going anywhere. And who do you think he should pick? You like the three that Kara mentioned? You can't say yourself, Casey. I don't know that I would do great at that. He needs to sell this company. He cannot be involved in this company. It needs to be a new group of investors. And I think there are a lot of people who worked at the old Twitter who would do a perfectly good job with this company.

And I think that if it were on its own, you probably could attract, you know, someone of the caliber of a Stewart or a Brett Taylor to do something. And that's what I hope is that he just gets out of this company. Or sells it to someone for less or the banks will come in. One of those things will happen. You know, you could see, oddly enough, I was thinking the other day of Microsoft picking it up. oddly enough, I was thinking the other day of Microsoft picking it up. If they don't get the Activision deal, it might be an interesting purchase for them at the right

price, because they have LinkedIn, they've got some other things, and he's sort of detoxified it in a weird way by making such a mess of it. Like, it's so toxic, it's reached bottom value. Right, it'd be a good buy. Yeah, it would be a good buy. It's a great buy. I mean, yes, but my favorite, and it might never happen,

but it just could literally any day, is Apple could just look up porn terms on Twitter and realize that it violates every single one of their terms of service. So we could say it's less toxic, but it's like, well, it depends on what you're looking for. Yeah, Apple could kill it in a second if he wanted to. Right after he had tweeted that poll, someone had suggested that only Twitter Blue users should be voting, and the direct democracy that has become Twitter.

Only the landed gentry can participate in this democracy. that has become Twitter. Only the landed gentry can participate in this democracy. It's very confusing. $8 landed gentry. The lords and the plebs, everyone's switching places. But Elon responded, Twitter will make that change, suggesting that over time, this weird voting election

in 2022. Is it becoming more closed, I guess? Is he pushing towards a more closed version of Twitter? There was a viral tweet yesterday, the day before, somebody was like, being on Twitter right now is like when a kid in elementary school is losing a game, so they just keep changing all the rules.

It's like, that is what Twitter is right now. Yeah, I have been that elementary school kid. I think he cannot be controlling it much longer. He will end up owning a toxic version of MySpace at some point. That sounds so terrible. MySpace, Tom responded to him. Did anybody see this? I just remember seeing it.

Oh, it was great. Sorry. Yeah, Facebook actually. We can go into Facebook because they did a good job responding to the You Can't Lend a Face. They did. But first I want to ask you, so a year ago, Elon Musk is Time 2021

Person of the Year. He's on the cover. You know, he stepped up to, Carrie, you've talked about this, like this kind of imperfect Steve Jobs vacuum that was last year with Visionary.

I wish Steve Jobs had made a vacuum, by the way. That thing would have been great. And he's gone. I'm so sad. It would have been the best vacuum ever. See you, Dyson. But he's facing real problems at Tesla.

Is he now the antihero, and is there any coming back for him? Oh, always. Yeah. I don't know. I sort of veer between is he Howard Hughes? And I think Howard Hughes made great strides in aviation and ended up in a hotel room with long fingernails and Kleenex tissues naked.

You could see that. You could see it. No, but a lot of our great inventors end up in a place of mental instability. And so I think that's a little bit as you're seeing it there. And again, interesting, the person who has the best seat is Walter Isaacson, who's been with him the whole time. He wrote many biographies, but the Steve Jobs ones, and he's been with him for the past year. So that should be something.

But it'll be interesting to see what Walter does. Yeah. Will he write a nice book? I'm guessing not. His last book has been a little nice. I'm guessing not. Ultimately, Elon turns on all journalists. And so I think that that should be interesting.

And just the little I've spoken to about it, there's focus on his early life. His father is particularly terrible. A lot of people have bad parents, but this guy is really quite a piece of work. I think he was quite bullied as a kid. There's going to be a lot about his origins, which, again, it doesn't excuse his misogyny and rudeness and everything else, but it certainly should be interesting to see how that happened.

He was booed out of Chappelle, but is anyone still rooting for him? Oh, well, okay. Well, so this is a great question because it lets me tell the story of Paul Graham. Do we all know Paul Graham? Okay, so Paul Graham was a founded Y Combinator, this very famous Silicon Valley incubator,

and was one of the sort of Elon cheerleaders. And when Elon first took over, he was tweeting things like, wow, a lot of you think you could run a company better than Elon Musk, and y'all are about to find out, neater, neater, neater, right? So there are all these people like Paul Graham

who watched over the past 10 years as tech workers gained all this power because they were in demand, because they were creating massive value. They used that value to ask for more things like more diverse workplaces and like being properly compensated. And it is driving the managers crazy. It's driving them crazy because they think we're paying you so much and yet you're still unhappy. And so they saw Elon coming in is we're going to be able to claw all of that back. Right. And so when Elon wiped out 75 percent of the workforce oh they've

never been happier than watching that happen right but what happened to paul graham his ass got banned for tweeting a mastodon link there could be no funnier outcome than paul so you have the y combinator mafia like all on twitter like a gog because elon you know one of their gods has now turned against and then that's where he turned it back, which is interesting. That was, that was, they, let me just tell you, Reed Hastings did it. You know, I had a back and forth with Mark Benioff about it. I sent him all the really, the anti-gay stuff around Paul Pelosi. I was like, really?

And he's like, oh, and I'm like, really? And, you know, I think they do, they do still go,'t bet against him Kara and I'm like I'm not betting I'm not in your stupid fucking game and what I get to get get to is what I say to a lot of them when they do this and I write all of them after they do something like that without the context of the other stuff going on I write I write it to all of them I write and I text them and I go you're so poor all you have money. And so how dare you do this? How dare you continue to do this? But they love it.

They do. They do. They're like, oh, stick in the journalist cross, stick it in the employees. We're the geniuses and we're not being treated with the great love we deserve. And so it's sort of this wealthy and it is mostly white guys grievance.

It's grievance at the world that is undeserved and and they just are i mean it's personified by paul and you know when he got suspended i'm like yay good and it's just so beautiful though because like these ceos they really think that they could like run their companies and have them be just as successful with 25 of the workforce and they're getting a lesson in reality yeah so do you think it's going to change? I mean, there's been this clash between libertarianism and quote, wokeism in Silicon Valley. Looking forward, is this story going to change

how CEOs look at companies? Are they going to go back to the same hubris? We could run this with 80% less people. No, I think they're going to get their heads handed to them because their businesses are successful because of the employees. And if they don't like all the lunches and they don't like the kombucha stands, I don't like all the lunches and they don't like the kombucha stands,

I don't like them much either. But, you know, they don't like all this stuff. Guess who built them? They did. And so this is the kids they've raised and this is the kids they have to deal with. And so, you know, and that's the thing. Say that. By the way, the kombucha stand at Facebook is quite nice.

Oh, kombucha. I know you do. I know you do. I know you do. Get that man a kombucha. Then get up onto the roof of Facebook. It's really good on the roof of Facebook. No such thing as a free kombucha on this show.

Delicious. Sold your soul for that. They change it every day, too. We're going to move on from Twitter. There's been a lot of critique that there's been too much coverage of Twitter, particularly for the reason you said, journalists, it's our haven, et cetera. What were we not paying attention to because we were sidetracked by Twitter? It's not sidetracked.

It's about a lot of things. What have we not covered? Let's look at what tech journalism has failed to cover because we've been obsessed and caught in the whirlwind that is the high-speed train wreck that is Twitter. I don't think that's the case. I think it's a very important story. I think these people are the richest, most powerful people,

and he's setting the tone. I don't think it's an unimportant story. I think it's these people are the richest, most powerful people. And he's setting the tone. I don't think it's an unimportant story. I think it's a great story. And it's personally been very profitable to me. So I'm grateful for it. Thank you, Jeff Sucker. You know, what I would say is. Didn't Jeff Sucker say that about Trump and live to regret it?

That's true. That's true. But what I would also say is that I think there's a decent chance like five years from now, we will go back and like read what we were writing about Elon in like October, November of this year. I will say we should have been writing way more about the AI stuff. Yeah. Like the AI stuff is going to be transformational in a way that might make the Elon drama look pretty small by comparison. Yes, that's absolutely true.

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What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive? What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive? Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam, but he fell victim. And we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to work together to protect each other. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. Thumbtack presents the ins and outs of caring for your home.

Out. Indecision, overthinking, second-guessing every choice you make. In. Plans and guides that make it easy to get home projects done. Out. Beige on beige on beige. In. Knowing what to do, when to do it, and who to hire. Start caring for your home with confidence. Download Thumbtack today. One story that has gotten a lot of coverage is crypto. Crypto, yeah.

So this is probably the second biggest tech story that's been covered recently. As we are taping this, Sam Bankman-Fried is enjoying, I believe, his last evening in the Bahamas. Spamming. The weather's spamming. He's enjoying a piña colada. Apparently the president is not that nice. Who would have thought? I thought the president of the Bahamas would be nicer than us. I don't think I'll ever find myself there, but good. Hopefully not. He will be extradited back to the United States. Is the fall of FTX an SBF problem, or is it a broader crypto problem?

It's absolutely a crypto problem. Don't listen to the people who are telling you this is not a crypto problem. When you look at the balance sheet of this company, half of it like nonsense coins right it was a little ftt it was a little you know xyz who knows um the reason that they were able to grow as big as they were and look as strong as they were is because their balance was full of nonsense crypto and if they just sort of opened up a bank you know like the you know sbf limited whatever um it would never have grown that fast. People would not have poured money into it. So this was a crypto story from start to finish.

And in a way, it was sort of the perfect story to cap off just an absolutely disastrous year for the crypto folks. I'm somebody who really tried to have an open mind with this stuff because I saw how much money and talent was going into it. And I just thought, statistically, there's no way that all of these people are wrong and that what they're building is useless. And at the end of 2022, it basically all looks useless. Yeah, it's most of it. And I just thought, statistically, there's no way that all of these people are wrong and that what they're building is useless.

And at the end of 2022, it basically all looks useless. Yeah, it's most of it. I think it is a crypto problem, and one of the reasons was, not lack of regulation, because I think it was just getting started. It was very early, but it was in the way it was a classic fraud scheme. It was sort of like,

what's that musical with Zero Mustel? Spring Producers. That's what it felt like. Like people were bringing money in and he was using, goosing it with his donations and his partner was goosing it with Republican donations to hold off just enough. He was trying to sort of virtue signal everybody. It was the perfect fraud.

So in that way, it was like lots of things that have happened. It's hard to disappear $8 billion. But the other thing, have happened it's hard to disappear eight billion dollars but the other thing no it's not um it's um and the other part is everybody was sort of like am i left out of this and one of the things that you have to realize about silicon valley is if they're not in on the next thing no matter how rich they are they have so much foma and so does everybody else and so we had covered it super early but one of the problems is that there is there are bits and pieces that make a lot of sense right and so it's it's got enough realness to it that with everyone piling in with foma and greed they wanted to be part of it like it it sounds when when something goes up and i

make tell this story all the time but i did an early bitcoin story um when wences casares who was at zappo, he was like, I did a story on him. So I bought 10 Bitcoin and they were $50 each at the time. And I just, and I put them on a stupid drive and lost it. And it's some, and, and it was really interesting at the time because the people who started it actually did make a lot of sense for people in other countries and currency to rethink currency. And so that's the problem. It was greed meeting something that really did need to be reformed, meeting someone who was very good at manipulating people's idea of in the world of craziness.

Here was this, you know, unmade bed guy who seemed rather harmless, you know, and he looked like he dressed like a toddler and, you know, he seemed simple. He never, we never brought him on stage at Code. We thought about asking him several times. We did. Why didn't you? It reminded me the same thing of Elizabeth Holmes at the time. I didn't think grifty.

I'm like, I don't get it. Like it was, it was this, with her, the reason I never had her on stage is because. You were threatened by her. I was threatened by her. No. Definitely not. It was because she told a lot of little lies that I knew about socially in Silicon

Valley, and I thought it was weird that she lied about little things. And I was like, and my brother actually called me said that he goes we have better chance of landing like aliens landing on the United States tomorrow than this thing working and my brother's a doctor and so a lot of people who are smart about it were like this is stupid and I didn't understand it and so that's why we didn't same thing with Freed is that I didn't understand it I was like I I don't explain it to me like I'm stupid and so I never wanted to sit with him

because I thought, maybe he's a grifter. Like, even though he doesn't, and he's giving an awful lot of money to people. That was kind of weird to me, the naming of stadiums, stuff like that.

But this is how they suck people in, right? So some things are very complex, they're hard to understand, and yet they're so appealing. People want to have that snake oil. And you get celebrities in, like Eva Longoria

from Desperate Housewives and Crypto. Who knew? Because those people can never be bought by money. Ryan from OC is testifying at the Senate floor. He somehow made his way out of OC. But do we think there's going to be a sea change in regulation that we see in crypto beyond everything

else? Because Gary Gensler is... No, the United States Congress is taking a pass on this one. for five years they said we're really thinking about doing something they didn't do something and now the republicans are gonna do a lot of and i'm not gonna say what center was they were gonna do a lot of positive stuff for the crypto industry and i'm not gonna say because there was a couple people that were pushing a couple senators to do something very pro-Sam Bankman-Fried, and they pushed back. A lot of senators did push back because they were like, this feels grifty

and we shouldn't, you know, we shouldn't be... And when they had anything strong, they were nervous about it. I think a lot of senators were pretty aware of it. So you think something's going to happen and you think nothing? No, I don't think anything's going to happen. No, nothing's going to happen.

Can I ask a slightly different question? Sure, go ahead. Do you think, because obviously there's going to be multiple streaming documentaries and scripts.

Do you think any of those will actually be entertaining to watch? Do you think you can get a good, I don't know, eight or ten episodes out of this? You know, I've got to say

my favorite thing this year was The Dropout. I thought it was so good. She was amazing. And by the way, she does a good Elizabeth Holmes. But blood is easier

to understand than crypto. I think that's what you're getting at, right? Like the Silk Road documentaries were pretty... Like obviously if you get like Jonah Hill and you like put in

the Bahamas and like there's, it's like in a sexy house like that, like then I'm like, okay, like you maybe had me for four episodes

but then I'm like, I don't know, it was like crypto exchange. You know it's going to happen. It's going to happen. Oh, it's going to happen. Speaking of regulation, speaking of governance, enjoy my new series, The Unmade Bed on Hulu in 2027.

It's very disturbing. By the way, can I just point out, he did interviews with literally everybody, you know? Except for you. Who did he turn down? Did he really turn you down? Yes. All the nice men he gave interviews to.

And he gave one or two women. But he turned me down. We can do the prison interview. I know. I'm going to. I was like, comb your fucking hair, you grifter. That would have been my first. It's funny.

If you were asked a year ago who is the anti-hero of tech you might have said mark zuckerberg uh now it's a runoff between elon or sam bankman freed maybe um is mark where is mark zuckerberg don't go for tastes i mean i think he's probably like delighted to be off most people's radar you know dancing on the graves well they had this really weird year where like um i so he announced last year they were going to do this pivot to the metaverse and i think it like caught on beyond their wildest imagination like facebook has like tried many marketing campaigns over the years most people just like ignore them you know this was like for whatever reason people really

did spend a year talking about the metaverse okay and then positively yes yes yes but also like i was getting emails that are like you know here also like I was getting emails that are like, here are the top 15 firms that are building the metaverse of tomorrow. I mean like so many outside people got in on it. They got the topic out there. Yeah, they really got the topic out there. And then they have a technological problem. Like the technology is not ready. They have to invent and miniaturize a bunch of things,

and they're not there yet. And it might take five years, and it might take 10. But that's kind of what they have their heads down doing. They had a really hard year at Meta they lost like over half the stock's value sort of like all of that but in a weird way like this has been the best year for Meta's brand since 2015

so I think they're probably feeling pretty good about that can I tell you how I know they're feeling good guess who invited Kara Swisher to lunch not Mark he's too scared Can I tell you how I know they're feeling good? Guess who invited Kara Swisher to lunch? Oh. Not Mark Zuckerberg.

Not Mark. Not Mark. He's too scared. But Facebook is suddenly like, hey, girl, want to talk? And I'm like, what? Like, don't you hate me? They're like, no. We love what you're doing. And you will go to lunch, Kara.

I went to lunch. Are you kidding? I went to lunch. We like text all the time now, me and the Facebook people. It's great. That's how bad it is. Still not coming for an interview. They will.

But Facebook recently tweeted an emoji. It's called the face with peeking eye emoji. There's the peekaboo. Let me just say, Facebook's still got a lot of problems. Oh, name one. Name 15. Go, Cara. I think their advertising business is super challenged in lots of different ways

with competitors and regulatory issues and it just isn't working they've got a lot of problems in their main business all over the place I think they are moving into the sort of part where they're not getting the best people I don't think the metaverse is catching on

I think people are, there's a resting investing culture there a little bit more than it should be. Mark's not excited them with his new thing. I think their executives, again, continue to be suck-ups a little bit to Mark. I think he needs a more challenging

team. And I think they've got a lot of, and Apple, hello, Apple has just handed them their launch. And they haven't been able to compete in hardware yet. Oculus is very nice, but a small business. But Kirsten Cinema is selling all of her stuff on Facebook Marketplace.

Yes! I don't know if you read that story, but there are bright spots. There's still Instagram and TikTok. TikTok, that's the biggest one. I'm sorry. Yes. Sorry. TikTok is really, really... The only thing that they're going for, they're able to lobby Congress about TikTok

very effectively, I think. And you shared a story with us, which is they've invested heavily in Reels to take out TikTok, and the Reels have cost them a lot in ad sales because they can't monetize. Yeah. Yeah. 500 million. Yeah. I mean, there I think like there's a chance that

Reels is doing better for them than you think if only because it has stopped TikTok from growing quite as fast as it did. Like I think Reels and YouTube have sort of neutralized some of that TikTok growth. And by the way, if you open up TikTok, you'll see that it's starting to look a lot more like Facebook, right? It's like there's a tab for your friends now, right?

So all these social apps sort of wind up like morphing into each other over time. You know, my thing, though, is just like no culture is made on Reels, you know? It's like, you know, there's like nothing, nothing is like happening on Reels that feels like it has a pulse. Whereas if you open up TikTok, it's like, okay, yeah, clearly like this is what the 17 Reels care about. Can I ask you a question? Because I spent an hour and a half watching everything with my son the other night, two nights ago. Everything. I have a question because I spent an hour and a half watching everything with my son the other night, two nights ago. And he's watching a lot of Reddit and YouTube because it's more real. He said TikTok's too polished.

And he really likes the mess that YouTube is in that regard. And he kind of likes it even if it's bad. And it never listens to what he says. Like he says no and then he gets more of it. And he kind of likes that. And he also loves Reddit. I have to say he really likes Reddit. I also had a conversation with Louis yesterday

and he brought up Reddit and it struck me because I thought it's interesting that as we're talking about this sort of very unsettled social media landscape that we live in now, why aren't more people talking about Reddit as sort of like the natural inheritor to some portion of the Twitter audience?

I don't know. I think Reddit has a really big opportunity and I hope they seize on it because I think they've figured out a lot of stuff and it doesn't get talked about very much yep I would agree I was surprised

they've made a lot of strides in content moderation etc that now you could build upon Carrie you gave a compliment to Facebook this year what did I say? just how I knew they took you to lunch what?

no I'm kidding you said that he did a good he did a decent job of the layoffs I thought he did a great job yeah look they have to do layoffs a lot of these companies

were overstuffed with people and I thought he handled a great job. Look, they have to do layoffs. A lot of these companies were overstuffed with people. And I thought he handled it. He took responsibility. He dealt with the visa issues. He didn't talk down to people. He said, I'm laying you off. It's my responsibility. It's on me.

He gave them four months severance. He gave them a lot of severance. I thought two people had it well. John Carlson from Stripe handled it well. And previous to that, Brian Chesky handled it pretty well. It's not a great thing to lay people off, but if you have to, this is how you do it. And previous to that, Brian Chesky handled it pretty well. It's not a great thing to lay people off, but if you have to, this is how you do it.

And I thought he did a good job. Mark is a nice person. He's a nice person. He's not an asshole. I wouldn't say he's an asshole. Those are big words for you. I know. He's not an asshole. I mean, there's sort of an interesting empirical illustration of that, which is you look at

how many people worked with him for 10 which is you look at how many people worked with him for 10 plus years and look at how many people worked for Elon Musk for 10 plus years and it's like zero. Yeah. So earlier we were talking about how these CEOs would not possibly get away

with thinking that employees don't give them anything because they can't survive without them. But there's real economic headwinds coming. So are the employees going to lose out in this battle between employer-employee? No. Eventually, no, because the economy will rebound. Every day, the value walks out of the building. And so I think they have to figure out how to manage these workforces in a different way, whether they're remote or not remote. And I know like Mark Benioff just was like, come back to Salesforce Tower. We're going

to do a sacrifice. We're having another luau on the roof. Casey, what do you think? What do I think? Yeah, what do you think? I think that, yeah, this is a scary moment for the tech workforce. You know, their jobs are at risk. Some of the things that they've fought for have at risk. And I think we're seeing a lot of more collective action in the tech industry than we're used to seeing. And I think that's a good thing. You know, it's like, one of my favorite stats you can look at,

it's not always public, but sometimes you can work it out, is just the revenue generated per employee. It's like, the people who are working at YouTube and Facebook and even Twitter, they're making so much money for these people. They're getting a tiny fraction of it. So it's like, close that gap.

Employers would say, oh, that's revenue generated per software or whatever. They would look at that. I've been through three of these and they always were like, finally, we're getting control from the employees. The first one in 2001 or two and then the one in 2008.

They never do. The employees are fully the most important element. Does working remotely curb the power of employees to organize and have relationships and build together? I think whole movements are happening on Signal right now. I think the group chats are popping. Things

are happening. I think they're still the most important part of any tech company is the employees. I do. They are. We'll be back in a minute to talk about how chat, GBT, and AI will be taking your job. So let's end by talking about climate change and also another big area, AI. So these are big investments, big kind of leapfrog tech investments that we're seeing.

How do you know when you're seeing movement in these new industries, when to be skeptical because it feels maybe grifty or too soon or too much, or when to be excited and optimistic about it? Well, you talk about chat. I mean, it's inevitable. It seems inevitable. Yeah, I mean, so I love that question. And for me, the answer is like when I can touch it. You know, it's like for the last three years, I go to these like Google keynotes,

but like Sundar gets up there and he was just like, this language model we've had, you've never seen a language model like this. You won't believe the things it can do. Just look at this recording of a thing that it did amazing right and i'm like yeah soon now that looks great but like when can i touch it this year open ai comes out it's like you can touch it now you can do things with it it's like it really does the things and so i am skeptical about it but like you know getting to that point earlier we were saying about like you know trying

to understand what was theranos what was ftx like we never really got it, you know? You use ChatGPT, you get it, right? So, anyway, to me, that's the story of 2022. Explain what ChatGPT is.

Does everyone here use ChatGPT? Are you, yeah? Is it writing your papers and talking to your girlfriends? clap if ChatGPT is doing your job. Okay, there are two people in this room of a couple hundred.

You should try it. It's a large language model. You use it, it's not a search engine, but you can use it for similar things. You can use it to write song lyrics. You can use it to tell you how to put together an outfit. You're sort of like anything that a

blog might tell you how to do. Because ChatGPT has ingested the entire internet, it can sort of tell you what to do. And it's amazing the things that it can do. And it's not even the state-of-the-art technology. OpenAI, which makes it, has a new version of ChatGPT, which is coming next year. And oh, boy.

Oh, boy. Oh, wow. This is all we're going to be talking about 2023. What it's able to do is also negotiate down your Verizon bill or a necessary bill. So don't pay is made a deal with ChatGPT to use. It'll be bots talking to the customer service bots. And you won't have to be involved

until, like, you're working for them. Yeah. You will be working for them. I can't wait till we can turn that on on Tinder, by the way. That's going to be great. It's already happening. People are using ChatGPT. And when you say people, Naima,

are those people in the room with us right now? Don't even think I can organize the scale of dates I have, Casey. Kara, should Google be worried because Microsoft has invested in OpenAI? No. I think it's very competitive. That's what's exciting about it. I mean, Google's way ahead. They've got DeepMinds.

They've got all kinds of things. But you've got really interesting stuff probably from Facebook. There's going to be stuff from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon. Yeah, they have Lambda, which hasn't come out. Okay, should Google be worried? They'll figure it out. I'm not worried about that. But can you imagine

a more hilarious story besides everything we already talked about with Twitter than the revenge of Bing? I know. Bing is like, I'm telling you.

Seriously, you should buy that website. I'm just picturing school children just being like, why is the default search engine set to Google? We're a Bing household.

I'm telling you, I think this is Bing's moment. I have been waiting for it for 20 years. Do you remember when he debuted Bing at Code? Were you there? No, I wasn't. When was this? He came, Steve Ballmer came to debut two things.

The giant surface table. We called it the big ass table. You know, that nobody ever bought, not one of them. It was a big table. It was stupid. It was a big computer, essentially. And then he debuted Bing at Code the first time. And he'd get on stage and we'd go,

do you have something to say? He goes, Bing! And then he kept going, Bing, Bing, Bing! And we were like, oh God, oh God. There was like, I think no one created more memes per sentence than Steve Ballmer until Jennifer Coolidge. Oh, yes. They kind of look alike.

I miss him. I'll say it. I miss him. We'll close out here. I tried to outsource my job today because I went to chat GPT after it sent all my dating app messages. And I said,

what are the questions that we should ask Kara Swisher and Casey Newton? Oh, wow. And the questions that got back were pretty lackluster. I just want to set your expectations. But two out of the five questions it sent back

were about the ethics of tech and what tech could do, which I thought was kind of interesting. I thought it would be about how do you deal with the sexual tension between the two of you. And if you have ideas, let us know. First of all, move out, Casey. It's negative sexual tension. So this is what ChatGPT asked.

As an AI, I do not have personal preferences or the ability to interact with individuals in the same way a human would. Therefore, I am unable to suggest a specific question to ask Kara Swisher or Casey Newton. However, here are a few general suggestions for questions that might be relevant to her work and expertise.

Yes, he merged her pronouns. I'm sorry. So yes, how do you balance the need for innovation her work and expertise. Yes. He merged her pronouns. I'm sorry. So, yes. How do you balance the need for innovation with the need to address social and ethical concerns surrounding technology? Well, that's the question, isn't it? That's the only question.

We don't have an answer for that. I mean, really. Think about it from the start. You know, it's like when it comes to like the content moderation stuff, you talk to the people who start doing this stuff at Snapchat, YouTube. It it's all the same it's a bunch of men in a room and the first bad thing happens on the platform is oh no we need a policy for that and then it just sort of grows from there like more recently platforms have started with with the idea of like well we know that these things gonna hurt people like how can we not hurt people like

that's that's what to do you know like the industry is actually established enough that particularly if you're running a social platform we have best practices for reducing harm so like start there when i first saw the facebook live i asked all kinds of questions i was like what if someone murders someone with someone bullies someone what was something and they looked at me like they're and one of them literally said you're a bummer and i'm like the fucking human race is a bummer like are you kidding me with the things they could do with it and one of the things i when i go see groups of young technologists i always say imagine your product is an episode of black mirror what what episode of black mirror and then don't fucking make it that way like make it in a way that you know they talk about cancel country called it's consequence it's understanding and

they have no ability to understand consequence for the longest time and i think that has to do with a group of people who've never felt unsafe a day in their lives, do not think about safety. They don't think about color. They don't think about women. They don't think about, and that's not good for them as people, even if they're wildly creative.

It's not good for us. It's not good for anybody. And so that's my biggest problem. And open AI has its own problems potentially. I mean, this can be used to put up websites and misinformation at a level we've never seen before, right? I mean, it will be completely hard, like deepfakes, et cetera, to deduce what's real, what's human, what's auto-generated. So it's scary. But to conclude, I did ask the chatbot who is the best source

reporter in tech today. And the response quote says, there are many talented and well-respected. I have a very nice voice for her. Yeah, you do. I feel like I'm talking to data from Star Trek. They can hire me to be like the Scarlett Johansson in her. There are many talented and well-respected reporters in the tech industry who are known to their strong sources and thorough

reporting. Some of the reporters who are frequently cited as being amongst the best in the field include Kara Swisher and Casey Newton. And then he named also Ben Thompson, John Gruber. How does that feel to be validated by AI? That was funded in part by Elon Musk. Well, again, this is why I'm so bullish on Bing. I think Bing.

You'll be the number one search result with all your Bing advertisements. Yeah. I'm very thrilled. Thank you, Elon, so much for being right about one thing in the past couple of months, which is We Rock. Thank you very much, Casey. Thank you, Kara. Thank you to everyone here. Love that, Casey.

I love Manny's. I've never been there before. Yeah, it was a great crowd, wasn't it? Were you surprised by how it was packed? Was I surprised by how famous you are, Cara? Is that what you're going to ask me? No, besides that. That's obvious for everyone and all, as I keep pointing out to you and you keep ignoring.

But it just is a really lovely space. And it's a great addition to the neighborhood, which, you know, the mission goes up and down. I lived nearby in Potrero Hill for a couple years. You did? Oh, and? I didn't know about mayonnaise. Well, it was probably after you left. Yeah, I left in 2016.

I would go in search of culture in San Francisco. I would go for miles searching for culture and find myself in the East Bay. The crowd did not want to hear any of it from anybody. We love San Francisco. I like New York, but San Francisco is fine. Fine. And I have to say, the New York Times said it was a ghost town. It didn't feel like a ghost town.

It does not. I know you're going to be mayor of Cairo one day. I know. They requested it, and I think I shall. We're going to have to delete these tapes when I'm your chief of staff there. That's all right. It doesn't matter. It's San Francisco.

I could marry a goat. They'd be fine with it. Anyway. Is talking to me the equivalent of marrying there. That's all right. It doesn't matter. It's San Francisco. I could marry a goat. They'd be fine with it. Anyway. Is talking to me the equivalent of marrying a goat? Excellent. Okay. No, I'm just saying a real goat. A real goat.

Oh, an actual goat. Not the greatest of all time. I was confused. I thought you were paying me a compliment. No. Alas, no. No, not at all. Not even slightly.

Okay. So, by the way, after our conversation yesterday, I stumbled across a quote, which is relevant, and I wonder if you can place it. Okay. The quote is, it does know a lot, but the danger is that it is confident and wrong a significant fraction of the time. Who or what is it? I don't know. Is it about ChatGPT? Yes, it's ChatGPT, and it's Sam Altman talking about ChatGPT. He's still working it through, but everyone's excited about it. I thought you could say the same thing about Elon.

It does know a lot, but the danger is that it is confident and wrong a significant fraction of the time. You know how I have a phrase like that? It's an old-time phrase, which is frequently wrong but never in doubt. And who does it apply to? Everybody. Except for? Kara Swisher. Okay.

Happy New Year. Want to read us out on that? Yes. Yes. Go famous, lady. Read us out with the credit. I. Happy New Year. Want to read us out on that? Yes. Yes. Go famous, lady. Read us out with a credit. I shall. I shall.

Today's show was produced by ChatGPT. Just kidding. It was made by Naima Raza, Blake Nishik, Christian Castro-Rossell, and Rafaela Seward. Special thanks to Haley Milliken, Fred Runner, and the team at Manny's. And Manny himself. What a guy. Our engineers are Fernando Arruda and Rick Kwan. Our theme music is by Trackademics. If you're already following the show, you get to be the head of software and servers.

If not, it's a foolish CEO job for you. Go wherever you listen to podcasts, search for On with Kara Swisher and hit follow and also vote for me for CEO of Twitter. Thanks for listening to On with Kara Swisher and hit follow and also vote for me for CEO of Twitter. Thanks for listening to On with Kara Swisher from New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network and us. We'll be back on Monday with more.