Pivot - Facebook vs. Apple, Robinhood reckoning, and a prediction for Zoom

Episode Date: December 18, 2020

Kara and Scott talk about Facebook's ad campaign going after Apple as both companies face antitrust lawsuits. They also discuss the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth filing a complaint against Robinhood. In listener mail, we get a question about whether podcasters will go behind paywalls. Scott has a prediction for Zoom Send us your Listener Mail questions through our site, nymag.com/pivot and use Yappa to leave a video or audio message. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for Pivot comes from Virgin Atlantic. Too many of us are so focused on getting to our destination that we forgot to embrace the journey. Well, when you fly Virgin Atlantic, that memorable trip begins right from the moment you check in. On board, you'll find everything you need to relax, recharge, or carry on working. Buy flat, private suites, fast Wi-Fi, hours of entertainment, delicious dining, and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. delicious dining and warm, welcoming service that's designed around you. Check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip to London and beyond, and see for yourself how traveling for business can always be a pleasure. harness the power and potential of AI. For all the talk around its revolutionary potential,

a lot of AI systems feel like they're designed for specific tasks performed by a select few. Well, Claude, by Anthropic, is AI for everyone. The latest model, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, offers groundbreaking intelligence at an everyday price. Claude Sonnet can generate code, help with writing, and reason through hard problems better than any model before. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. And, Cara, on behalf of all entrepreneurs, I just want to give a big thank you to Facebook for fighting for us. Facebook cares about me, Cara.

We're going to talk about that in the mid-story. It cares about me. Thank God. Yes, it doesn't give a shit about you. Thank God Facebook and Sheryl Sandberg are here to save us. Dry cleaners and cupcake bakery owners. So you're out of breath, Scott. We're going to get to that in a minute.

You've just been doing CrossFit. Is that what you've been doing? I did CrossFit this morning, but more than anything, I've been doing 56. I'm fucking 56. Yeah, I'm older than you, Scott. I don't have no pity. No mercy, no malice. Oh, my God.

Do you know how many times I peed last night? Seriously. Do you know how many times I—I need a chamber pot. It's like it's getting so ridiculous. My prostate is the size of the antitrust filings. All right, listen to me. Bringing it back to pivot. Speaking of antitrust, the Texas Attorney General,

the one who tried to do the election fraud bullshit and is also under investigation himself for all kinds of corruption, is suing Google on behalf of a coalition of states. He alleges the company manipulated ad markets and violated any trust laws. This is sort of the second shoe to drop in the Google stuff. These people weren't part of the bigger case that the Justice Department had. I think there were 20 states, and now there's more adding into the situation.

So here we are. We have the Texas Attorney General come after Google, which I think is interesting. Dots, just more of the same, essentially. Well, there's a couple things. One, all of a sudden it's hip to be, you know, hip antitrust, whatever you want to call it, woke antitrust. Everyone's decided on the left and the right. You know, you read these press releases. It's kind of a, I mean, A, some of them make very strong arguments, but mostly what they are is, hey, look at me, I should be governor.

And that's really powerful because once people decide that the clearest blue line path from the attorney general's office to the governor's mansion is to go after big tech, you're going to have tremendous momentum against big tech. So this is important. Also, if I understand, I don't know if this is the specific case, but this case, I believe, is alleging cooperation between Google and Facebook. Where it's saying, okay... Yeah, there was an interesting part about WhatsApp in there. Yeah, that they're coordinating. And when you have the duopoly, the two agents of the duopoly, coordinating with each other, then everyone else has absolutely no chance.

And that even breaches, that even goes beyond. That was redacted, but it's very questionable what's in there. Right, right. And that goes from kind of civil to potentially criminal. If they were hiding the fact that they were cooperating at the expense of other apps or ad markets that wanted placement on Google. What they're basically, my understanding is alleging, is that they gave preferential treatment to Facebook. So, this is, I think it's a big deal, but more than anything, this is, you know, I love that statement. I think Larry Sumner said it, that it's surprising how

long things take and then shocking how fast they happen. That's true. As it relates to antitrust, we're in the shocking phase now. Well, you know, this is something we have talked about a lot for years, especially Kara Swisher. Like this idea of they're not- You got that right until the last part. Especially Kara Swisher. Come on. Go back.

Especially Kara Swisher. Go back, my friend. Okay. Go back to when you wrote a book on the floor. Go back. You're right. book on the floor. Go back. You're right. I am the OG of the OG. You love them.

You love them. Not Facebook. Did you love Facebook? You used to love Facebook. You think I forgot. I used to, yeah. You used to. Meanwhile, well, speaking of which,

Facebook is also building a new video product that basically ripped off Cameo. You pay to jump into videos with celebrities and takes, I think this will be a failure by Facebook. It's another stupid feature that they're not going to do a good at. And Cameo is doing a very good job at their business, but typical, typical. I just interviewed the CEO of Cameo. I think the key is as long as it's on the portal and I can pay with Libra,

I think it's going to be a big hit. It's not called Libra. It's called Diem or something. D-I-E-M. They've changed the name. Yeah. It's called, I don't know what their, their part, but their effort ism, and it's changed, and it's still not going to work in any case. And the third thing, speaking of really big stories, the Texas Attorney General, who's really an appalling figure in so many ways, by the way, so it's good that Facebook has this particular enemy in that case,

particular enemy in that case, but is that meanwhile, as these people are making all this ridiculous PR noise and stuff like that on important cases, the Russian government has been in our business, in our business, in our federal business. And let me just read you this lead from a story yesterday from David Sanger and Nicole Perloth and Julian Barnes. Over the past few years, the United States government has spent tens of billions of dollars on cyber offensive abilities, building a giant war room at Fort Meade, Maryland for United States Cyber Command. It's headed by Paul Nakasomi, by the way, while installing defensive sensors all around the country, a system named Einstein to give it an air of genius to deter the nation's enemies from picking its networks clean again.

It is now clear the broad Russian espionage attack on the United States government and private companies underway since the spring and detected by the private sector only a few weeks ago ranks among the greatest intelligent failures of modern time. I mean, really, what are they doing over there at Einstein? Einstein is not so smart. He missed it. I heard the renaming the program Bozo. Yeah, I mean, really, seriously. Yeah, this is a big deal. We, again, get it wrong around this stuff. The wars are being fought in cyberspace, and we have decided to unilaterally disarm. And it's too bad. If you think about, I mean, cybersecurity stocks,

that is going to be a very interesting place to work or to train. You're going to see vocational programs just explode around giving people skills around cybersecurity. But this really is the next front in our battle. Yep. Have you done any reporting around this? I haven't. I'm going to because I think it's not, you know, as usual, the United States government is hiding what's really happening because that never changes, right, this idea. And, of course, National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien, who is such a fatuous poppin' J.

He was like swanning around the Middle East and Europe with his wife going to the Louvre on special whatever. Whatever. Now he's running crisis meetings, but they just haven't done anything. This administration has just watched. You know, what's interesting is now in some of these hearings about the election fraud that went on yesterday, they were like, we spent all this time, you know, looking at the fake Russian hoax, and here they are. It's not a hoax.

Like, this is ridiculous. We have not been paying attention to what the Russians can do here. And so I will be doing a lot of reporting this. But, you know, someone like David Sanger, who we've had on, is sort of the expert on this stuff. But it's just really amazing how many areas the Russians have gotten into of our business. And this idea, this strategy of counterattacking, which is called defend forward, and it put beacons all over the world to warn of oncoming attacks, had no deterrence to the Russians, no deterrence whatsoever. But it goes beyond that. I mean, for example, you and I have been, you and I have Russian trolls on our Twitter feed every day trying to influence or undermine our credibility around issues that they see counter to their interests.

or undermine our credibility around issues that they see counter to their interests. Yeah. But there's no fear of reprisal on behalf of Twitter's board or their share price. So there needs to be – also, this is the opportunity here is this would – in addition to climate, this would be a fantastic means of repair. This would be a fantastic connective tissue to say to our allies, look, and say, look, the last four years, if we can, we're going to try and press the reset button. And just as we had a North Atlantic treaty where we all decided to invest in tanks and an army to stand at the Polish-Russian border to ensure we kept the peace around a region that kept breaking out into world war, this would be a huge opportunity for like-minded democracies to form an Interpol, you know, NATO-like alliance around cybersecurity and our first enemy that we would all put up defenses

against and then get off our heels onto our toes and start, I don't know, shutting entire cities down and saying, you know, stand down or we're going to start hitting back. But this would be an opportunity to repair some of those alliances. Yes, the Biden administration would come out swinging here. This is exactly where they should come out swinging. The Trump administration is just incompetent to this task. What's interesting is it's not clear whether they breached into classified systems, but they certainly got through all kinds of unclassified systems. And it's considered the biggest ever.

It's just the first thing the government has to do is be transparent about what's happened here. And they don't want to. And it was a private company, right, that got weaponized? It was a private firm? Yes, SolarWinds. Anyway, it's very complex, but what has to happen is the government has to become very transparent about what's gone on here so that we can work together to do something. And then the Biden administration should hit hard on the Russians on this issue. I mean, this is not the Cold War, it's the digital war, and the Russians are really quite good. And to say there is a hoax around Russian hacking is just, you're as dumb as a box of hammers

if you think that's the case. Anyway, also, lastly, for our banter, Scott, your buddy, Mayor Pete, got a cabinet position. Hello, dreamy at the airport. I'm sorry. Hello. I get off the plane, and he's there to greet me with his gorgeous hair and his supple skin.

Come on. There's not a more qualified person to deal with electric cars. Be clear. There are thousands of people more qualified. He's the best man for the job. Why? Tell me why. Because I literally have a list a mile long of people who know about infrastructure.

Although, apparently, according to his husband, there's going to be an infrastructure week finally. Wait for it, which I'm excited about. Well, even along things along the lines of climate change, if the government were to make a real impact or a statement or start creating elegant solutions around climate change that also recognize the balance of economic growth, the Department of Transportation runs a path right through those two issues. So, also, if you think about, I mean, a big question,

everyone's talking about what gets better coming out of the pandemic? What new things do we do? And I think the bigger question is what things do we leave behind? And in Florida, it's been spectacular because we have less nitrous oxide and other bullshit in the air because there's been a reduction in traffic. Citizens, American households spend 12% of their income on transportation. Is there an opportunity to have a more forward-looking strategy? He's a smart guy. He's a, look, he's a smart guy. It could be bikes. It could be autonomous vehicles. It could be municipal transportation. It could be tunnels getting you from downtown to the airport in eight minutes instead of 45 minutes. It could be tunnels getting you from downtown to the airport in eight minutes instead of 45 minutes. It could be airports that represent the promise of America. He likes airports.

He proposed to his husband in an airport. He made an adorable, gay, adorable love story thing in there. Automatic temperature checks. Speaking of love, actually, I felt like I was in love, actually. He does. He calls airports romantic. He's a sexy a sexy beast no let me just say something amanda told me uh who who uh was thinking about it it's like look he's very competent but like oh give it to the smart white guy who'll figure it out versus like possible qualified people well thank god thank god there's a white man here to save us because he can he can say i'm sure he can he's very smart it's just like uh the person i think is interesting is the former epa chief uh gina gina mccarthy who's to be White House climate czar.

I suspect she will have more power in that regard and is actually an area expertise person. That cabinet post used to be the giveaway that you gave to a Republican to try and signal you were bipartisan or you gave it to a person of color to say, hey, I get diversity. That cabinet position likely gets much more attention, much more oxygen. And quite frankly, transportation is just becoming increasingly important. I mean, think about how much time we spend talking about innovation around personal transportation. I think it's very exciting. He and I are going to go around on a scooter when he gets to DC. I think that's what I should do. The best title I saw on his appointment, the best article was, Planes, Trains, and Endless Ambition. Do you think I should socialize with him

when they appear and have a little date? With Mayor Pete? Cabal or something. That's definitely, that's an awesome double date. I bet I'd like to meet his husband. I've interviewed his husband too. He had a really lovely, but his husband wrote a wonderful book.

I couldn't get through Pete's, but his husband's book was wonderful about growing up, you know, difficult, you know, in a mid, he's real Midwestern and had a real struggle being gay. But it was great actually. Yeah. So we're going to hang out. We're not going to be inviting you because it's going to be, you know. I would be so much fun. Oh my God. I'd be the best fifth wheel ever because I'd say. What would you do if Pete Buttigieg became my best friend and I just refused to let him talk to you? That's not fair. I know.

That's not fair. Me and Pete, I've been a big supporter of Mayor Pete. But, you know, by the way, this is a quick plug. You thought he was going to be president when I thought what Biden was. I thought Mayor Pete was going to be president or was going to be. I was just dying to see him on the stage. Yeah. Now you can.

But you know who's my new man crush who I'm supporting for mayor of New York? Should he decide to run? Andrew Yang. That's right. That's right. You want to talk about a city that is the capital of America and thereby the capital of the world that we all have a vested interest in its success that represents the greatest. That would be a tough city to govern. A hundred percent.

So we need a creative thinker. We need innovation over ideology. I am on the Yang gang for mayor of New York. I like Andrew. I do like Andrew. He's a really lovely man. He seems like he's parachuting in. Another competent man parachuting in. I don't know. I like him too. I don't like him. Look, we need ideas. We need young blood. New York is going to have tremendous challenges. It's a big field. It's a big field there. Well, it is a big field, but you know what? You know why York is going to have tremendous challenges. It's a big field.

It's a big field there. Well, it is a big field, but you know what? You know why he's going to win? What? Every day, he's going to make news on ideas. Every day,

he's going to overwhelm the airwaves. I think he's a shoo-in. Oh, okay. All right. Okay, we'll see. We'll see. I'm going to say again, I think one of the locals is going to win.

Mayor Pete and soon to be, soon to be Mary Yang. Get on board soon to be, soon to be Mary Yang. Get on board. It's Mayor Yang, not Mary Yang. Mary Yang. What did I say? You said Mary Yang, not Mayor Yang. I feel triggered.

You show, you discriminate against old white guys that can't pronounce my name. You know Andrew, right? You know Andrew, don't you? Yeah, I do. Good. I'm serious. I'm going to do some work for him for his campaign. We'll have him on.

All right. You do that. Remember Beto. Remember your Beto love. I'm just saying. Don't be. Hey, look. New York's a tough frigging place.

All right. We're moving on to Big Street. Beto and I have taken a break. Sometimes you just need to take a break for both parties. You move from competent man to competent man, don't you? Competent. Angela Merkel is my role model. She is my role model she is my role model i

love her speaking of which another competent man who who is just a little bit you know somewhat seems like a lightweight a little bit is uh macron who seems to be tough now macron he has covid he's good i was beginning to think the good looks were the ultimate immunity against covid i mean look at the people have been getting it it. Some very ugly people. That's terrible. That's terrible. Oh, my God. I know, I know. Okay, we're moving on. You don't see looks.

Speaking of some very ugly people, we're moving on to big stories. Facebook is launching an offensive attack against Apple as part of their long-simmering battle. Facebook lashed out at Apple on a series of full-page ads. Ironically, in the New York Times,

the Wall Street Journal and Washington Post newspaper ads saying, their physical newspaper ads saying, we're standing up to Apple for small businesses everywhere. This is the reaction to Apple's new iOS 14 operating system will limit the ability of companies to gather data about users using an advertising. Facebook executives are calling the behavior anti-competitive. It is simply changing something from an opt-out to an opt-in. Facebook says they'll be helping video game company behind the popular game Fortnite, Epic. Fortnite has been in a legal battle with Apple for monopolistic

behavior in the app store. Last week, Apple CEO Tim Cook took a swipe at other big tech companies in a podcast interview saying, you can be the great amplifier of misinformation, of violence, and a lot of different things out there. We don't want to be any part of this. We don't want to be part of the hate at all. And I feel, by and large, we've avoided that. And he said, as you recall, many years ago, he sort of took a swipe at Mark Zuckerberg previously. So the people at Facebook consider Apple high-handed and sanctimonious. The people at Apple just think Facebook is just a toxic waste dump, essentially. That's my read on the situation.

The whole thing, it's like watching Angela Lansbury get into a fight with Peter Falk. Remember Columbo? Yeah. It's just kind of weird and uncomfortable. And these two, first off— Do you have a side? Oh, you know, look, they're both full of shit. So Facebook is a menace.

I don't think Apple is a menace. And distinct of who's a better or lesser person, the reality is Facebook makes, the whole world is iOS slash Android, and Facebook is Android and then it gives products away for free and then monetizes them with advertising. And advertising is a function of collection of data. And Apple has basically tried to privatize media through apps, where they say, pay for this app, and we won't barrage you with advertising. So, when Tim Cook goes after the privacy violations as a function of their business model, it's very self-serving because he's taking a 30% tax on anyone who opts out of the ad model and goes to cable. So he's cable or he's HBO.

Mark Zuckerberg is the old line CBS. And all of a sudden, Tim Cook is saying that those ads on CBS are bad for you. Come to cable. They're both talking their own book. I think it's wonderful to see big tech going after each other. Not only do you have the FTC and the DOJ and AGs going after them, they're now going after each other. Yeah.

So the best way to defeat an enemy, and I do believe the externalities of big tech, not big tech itself, are the enemies, is to atomize the enemy and get them fighting each other. And that's what is happening here. So go at each other. Go at it, and get them fighting each other. And that's what is happening here. So go at each other. Go at it, gentlemen. Go at each other. But let's talk about the diversion strategy Facebook's using here.

They're facing new antitrust allegations from the Federal Trade Commission. This helper of small business is just fine. They serve small businesses, but they serve Facebook, is really the center of Facebook's universe is Facebook. But small business is really the heart and soul of this company because when they got attacked by big ad buyers, it wasn't a big deal to them when they had the, you know, stop the hate. Because their business are these small businesses doing advertising. So talk about this diversion strategy. Well, there's a few points there.

One, the greatest asset of Facebook is that it has the most elastic revenue base or the most self-healing revenue base in the history of mankind. I think it has 18 million customers. And no, I don't think any one customer represents more than 1% of their business. So any one individual advertiser or even groups of advertisers are just not a threat. So, they're just impenetrable in terms of any sort of revenue threats. The notion, though, and this goes to a larger point, Republicans love tax cuts. We need a series of talking points, and one of those talking points needs to be the following, that every medium in the past, whether it's advertising, whether it's catalogs, has been a means of competitive differentiation. What do I mean by that? Nike figured out a way

to bring together creative talent to use advertising as a means of creating sustainable competitive advantage around their brand. They're just better at advertising than their competition. Williams-Sonoma figured out a way to leverage databases and the USPS to establish competitive, sustainable shareholder value through the deft use of direct mail and catalogs. The genius of Google and Facebook is they have made these tools so egalitarian.

They have made the methods of advertising on Facebook and Google so egalitarian, so easy to sign up. All you need is a credit card, some time watching YouTube videos, and boom, you can be 98% as good on Google and on Facebook as P&G and Ford and Nike are. By the way, you would text Cheryl Sandberg a lot. This was her thing at Google and at Facebook.

So just so you know. So it's an absolute genius strategy. But here's the thing. No individual company is able to establish an advantage. And when every company is spending money effectively, it doesn't go from a weapon or an attribute. It goes from a tax. So, if you want to talk about the largest tax cut in history on small and medium-sized business, it would be to break up these companies, thereby reducing their power and reducing the rents that every business in America pays to Facebook and Google.

You have no choice. My education startup, Section 4, we're on, we buy keywords, we're on Facebook. Why? I hate them both. We have no choice. Yeah, that was a lot of the reaction yesterday. You have no choice. So what do you think of their idea

that they're your friends? Pretty much all the small business is like, oh, we don't like them. They're not that good. We just have to be there. We're like serfs. And one of the interesting things I noticed was the reaction for Facebook has not been good on this, which lets Apple, even if you think Apple is sanctimonious or whatever,

or it's in their interests or they're dealing their own deck here. I thought Walt Mossberg had a really good reaction. The king of privacy theft, Facebook, is running ads attacking Apple, the leader in privacy protection, all because Apple is shifting to an opt-in system from an opt-out system for users to allow data sharing with advertisers. Facebook must fear folks won't opt in. I wonder why. Yeah, look, they said these are both heroin dealers. Their consumer base is addicted or totally dependent upon the drip of Facebook and Google AdWords and advertising. And they used to be, all right, you take the high school, I'll take the mall. And now they've decided that, no, that's my territory.

And they're trying to tell their respective addicts that their heroin is bad. This is Google. I'm talking about Apple. Apple doesn't traffic in this. Oh, yeah. Well, Apple, but Apple does. Okay, but to be clear, Apple doesn't traffic in that. What Apple traffics in is if you want to enjoy the internet, you have to do it through an

app, and we're going to take a tax on everything. Do you realize Roblox pays 25% of all revenue to either Apple, Google, or Amazon? So, Apple's just saying, look, we want you to continue to pay a tax. We just want that tax to come to us in the form of a 30% commission on the apps you buy without advertising. They're all in the business of addiction, owning the rails, monopoly power. They just monetize it differently so they become sanctimonious about each other. Mark Zuckerberg has a point pushing back.

But to somehow say, I mean, basically what he said is he's a mob boss saying, guys, if I go to jail, so are you, right? Be clear. If I go down, so are you. And where they lost the narrative here, if they'd said, look, let's be clear, we're about, our business model is advertising. Theirs is about the app economy. They charge you a lot of money such that you don't have advertising. We give you great products for free such that you, and you have to pay. Which they do, which they have done. Great products. And you have to look at some ads on Instagram. You choose which model you want, but be clear, be clear. Mr. Cook does not care about your privacy. He does not care

about the country. He cares about shareholder value. And this is awfully convenient. But we're the bridge too far here where they undermine themselves and they shot themselves in the foot and reflected how insular they are, Facebook, where they shot, was claiming to be the champions of small business. Give me a fucking break, Facebook. Do you think anyone believes you? Do you think any small business person says, thank God Facebook is out there fighting for us? I mean, come on. Talk about a lack of self-awareness. What would you do if you're Apple? How do you respond to this?

Besides saying privacy is, you know, they can't claim, you're right, they're making money in the app store, right? They're making money over here. But the idea of opt-in versus opt-in, I think I'm with opt-in and I don't understand, I have no problem with opt-in. And I think most of these ad companies do. They do exactly one thing.

Apple does exactly one thing. Nothing. Nothing. They roll their eyes. They go on background. They educate journalists, but they do not go on record. Tim Cook, that's like Macron getting into a fight with Marsha Blackburn from Tennessee. He just doesn't need to go there.

They go on background, they release data, but Tim Cook right now, his image, he is Kara Swisher and Facebook is, I don't know, Tucker Carlson. You just shouldn't respond. Okay, let them be crazy. We'll help. We'll arm you with data to show how hypocritical this is. Or that, you know, Facebook is just trying to create diversion. But Tim Cook does not need to get into a direct pissing match. He should ignore them.

It's like when Tip O'Neill refused to debate any candidate. He should just refuse to debate Mark Zuckerberg. Go on background, no official statement. And one of the things that's, but one of the things that's important to them is this idea of privacy protection, like that privacy protection, which they can afford to do because they're not in the same business. You can say we're for privacy when privacy is not your business, violating privacy. But what does it have the impact on the broader government stuff that's going on with them fighting each other?

That's a good question. I don't have a good answer. Do you have any thoughts? You know, I think probably Facebook's more of a demon to government, right? So, because they can directly link it to consumers. The fight Apple's having, which is important, is fights with Epic and things like that.

And as you said, they've done, you know, making concessions right now on those issues is something Apple should do. Continue to make concessions while Facebook sticks to its guns. That, I think, is the best thing they should do, is continue to make concessions they can afford on the App Store. I don't know if there's a full solution to it, because there are only two systems, essentially. So I'm not sure what to do about it. So, I think if the concessions they're making and cooperation with app developers would be the move I would make, I'd settle with Epic. Yeah, well, they made that sort of aggressive, I thought,

genius move of reducing, cutting in half the tax on app developers if you have less than a million in revenue, which was a genius move because they only gave up about 2% of their revenue and kind of made themselves look good. But, yeah, so much of this, what we forget is so much of this is around likability. And Tim Cook is a fantastic likability shield. Sheryl Sandberg has kind of used up all her nine lives of likability. So, people are no longer buying that rap. But Tim Cook is still the most likable guy. The next one who's likability shield, I've been playing Fortnite with my son, and you buy or you find these little things of

energy that give you more protection or more health. And soon it's going to start using up his health. When all the information comes about around how aggressive Google has been and how they basically own both sides of the trade and exchanges, he's going to become less likable. You're right. You're right. But Tim Cook still has the most likability shields to spend or to run through, but it's going to happen to him too. I don't know. I think they're the only one that doesn't end up with some sort of split, either self-imposed or imposed on them. Yeah, they'll make reforms.

But regulation's coming. Regulation around the app store just makes too much sense. Yeah, I think their best argument to me is, why can't people just click to decide? Like, what is your problem with that? And obviously, it's a loaded question. Of course, they have a problem with that. But it's saying, why not just let people opt into their information being sucked up? You know, the big giant sucking sound from Facebook. What's wrong with that? We're protecting people. I think they shouldn't go too hard if we're protecting.

But I do think it's a really good argument to say, what's wrong with disclosure? Like, just keep saying it. Because that'll appeal to regulators. We're for disclosure. More disclosure. That kind of stuff. And then fight the other fight separately. It is kind of stupid for Mark to sort of wrap himself in small business at the same time saying

we're going to help your enemies hurt you. You look like such a little shit. I don't know. You know what I mean? None of these moves are smart by Facebook, I think. What would you do right now if you were Facebook? Stop doing this or doing what? Because they can't, I don't think they're going to stop said, I wouldn't be in this position, but if I were on the board of Facebook and I wasn't a weirdo or a sycophant and actually wanted to act as a fiduciary for the Commonwealth or shareholders, I would say, you know what, prophylactically, we need to get out there. We need to kick Zuckerberg up to chairman. We need

to bring in a new CEO, and we need to immediately announce a spin of WhatsApp and Instagram. And by the way, our stock's going to go up. You know what's really interesting here? Is since basically in the last three months, everybody's known something's going to happen to Facebook in terms of antitrust. There's been rumors everywhere. And what's happened to the stock? It's gone up. So the marketplace, again, everybody's going to win.

Taxpayers are going to win. Taxpayers are going to win. The Commonwealth is going to win. Innovation is going to win. The employees of Facebook, the shareholders are going to win. The only person that loses is the person who controls the company and wants it to be bigger because they're a power-hungry sociopath. Okay, but he's going to be richer than ever. He's going to be richer than ever. John Rockefeller, when they broke up Standard Oil into 34 separate companies, he became wealthier.

That prick, yeah. He became wealthier. So what would I do? What would I do? I would get out ahead of this. I asked someone this at Facebook, and they were like, he's a young guy. He doesn't want to give up power. Like, I don't know what else.

That's not in his DNA. He can't do it. He can't do it. And this really rankles him. You know, at the time, the last thing I'd say is- What would you do? I think he's not going to... This is what he does. Yeah, but there's a difference between what will he do and what would you do. What would you do? I think you're right. I think he's going to... The antitrust division of the DOJ has a budget of $150 million. I think Mark Zuckerberg will give his lawyers $250 million and say, make this go away or try to.

Yeah, I think it's always been a mistake. Mark has an unfailing sense of making the wrong move, the aggressive move. I think he's used it. Speaking of likability, he was, you know, instead of just cooperating with the Trump administration as Apple did. Listen, Apple was right in those rooms with Trump and being friendly to Ivanka and Jared. And they did all those things, you know, led them on tours of things. But they didn't do this bear hug

that Facebook did of the Trump administration, right? All of these companies did a quiet, you know, disagreeing publicly now and again when it was egregious, but essentially cooperating. Are you kidding? Facebook, Teal, and Trump had the first threesome. But I was talking about Apple.

Apple did the amount that they needed to do, right? They didn't completely run. But Facebook literally did a bear hug beyond bear hugs. And I think now they're, I don't know. I just, we'll see. I think they're going to get their head handed to them because of that. They can't ever do anything with any kind of, you know, subtlety. They can't do subtlety.

This ad is so stupid. You mean Peter Thiel, who's on the board of Facebook and arguably the second most powerful person at Facebook, you know, sitting next to Donald Trump, Mark Zuckerberg having secret meetings with Donald Trump. I mean, this is the unholiest alliance of the last 10 years and it was very straightforward and we should not forget their names. Even Rupert Murdoch didn't look as didn't appear you know what i mean

like the talk about someone who's uncle satan as i like to call him but rupert murdoch has read the the oligarchs oligarchs you didn't see a lot of rupert hanging with he did phone calls right quiet phone calls just i just find this company to be as the least subtle group of people and they're making, they're always righteous and angry. Like the texts you get from them, their tweets, they're always like righteous.

They're righteous all the time. I mean, when they call you and say, that's not fair that Scott said I was the worst thing to happen in the last 30 years. It's just like, give me a fucking break. And you start texting me late at night

and you hurt my feelings. I'm a delicate little flower. I just think Tim Cook, you're right, should say very little and just put the stuff out. I think they're in a much better position here. Even if they have their own issues, they're not even close to what the Facebook issues are. And in discovery, it's not going to be pretty for Facebook.

It's just not. I can't imagine there are not email after email after email in a Microsoftian way. I just can't. I don't know for sure. The failure of Facebook, one of the biggest that will ultimately end up resulting in them loving or getting more damage from these antitrust actions and getting more punitive action that's more emotion filled than kind of legally driven, is that they failed to read oligarchy

for dummies. And the key to being a successful oligarch is you use your proximity to power to economically enrich yourself, but you don't get so close such that when that person loses power, you're infected. And they got too close to the president and the means of infection, the virus, was Peter Thiel.

Peter Thiel's proximity to Trump and to Zuckerberg has revealed that they were in bed with each other. And a Biden-Harris administration is not gonna be excited to in any way defend Facebook. It is gonna come back to haunt them. Whereas Rupert Murdoch would always do a meeting with Obama. Supposedly there was backroom deals between Rupert Murdoch and Obama. a meeting with Obama. Supposedly there was backroom deals between Rupert Murdoch and Obama.

Murdoch was too smart to get infected. He was an effective oligarch. Whereas Facebook has been infected by the Trump administration. They're not going to forget all those photo ops with Peter Thiel and Donald Trump. There were supposedly two secret dinners between the Zuck and the president. I wonder what they were talking about. They just can't do it. They can't do it.

They can't do it. They literally think they're going to win here, and they're just not. They're history. They're not students of history, and this is not. They can't spend their way out of this. And by the way, they have so many enemies now. Everyone hates them. I've said this over and over again.

Literally, even people who used to work there hate them. Other companies hate them, you know, and Google's been smart in keeping their head down, even if they've done some, like, we should be talking about this on Monday, the issues around the firing of a very prominent AI researcher there. You know, they've done some terrible things and yet don't seem to attract, you know, this guy attracts people's unhappiness like lint on a shirt. Anyway, we're going to take a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about, speaking of companies that we do not hold in high regard, Massachusetts holding Robinhood accountable and a listener mail question.

Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night. And honestly, that's not what it is anymore. That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter. These days, online scams look more like crime syndicates than individual con artists.

And they're making bank. Last year, scammers made off with more than $10 billion. It's mind-blowing to see the kind of infrastructure that's been built to facilitate scamming at scale. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of scam centers all around the world. These are very savvy business people. These are organized criminal rings. And so once we understand the magnitude of this problem, we can protect people better. One challenge that fraud fighters like Ian face is that scam victims sometimes feel too ashamed to discuss what happened to them.

But Ian says one of our best defenses is simple. We need to talk to each other. We need to have those awkward conversations around what do you do if you have text messages you don't recognize? What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive? Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam, but he fell victim. And we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk

and we all need to work together to protect each other. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Scott, we're back. Everybody loved your rant last week about vaccines and masks, which I thought everyone mentioned to me.

They love Angry Scott. But the Massachusetts Secretary of State filed a complaint against Robinhood contending the company's gamifies investing. So I would like a rant from you. In the filing, Secretary William Galvin said Robinhood, quote, uses aggressive tactics to attract inexperienced investors, its use of gamification strategies to manipulate customers, and its failure to prevent frequent outages and disruptions on its trading platform. Robinhood disputed these claims in a response that the company will defend itself vigorously. Robinhood has seen record growth in 2020. People have been home, so they've been busy trading stocks. The company posted 3 million new customers in the first four months of 2020. I'm not sure how that's going right now,

but Scott, your time to shine. How big a step is this? Do you see other states joining the effort? I do. And I want you to do Robinhood's defense of this, too. Well, Robinhood's defense would be that they're democratizing trading, that investing and learning about investing and establishing market knowledge so that you can build economic security for you and your family is a wonderful thing. And they're just bringing innovation and free trading and parsed shares. You could buy one-tenth of a share of Apple for people who want to start with, you know, 10 bucks instead of 120. There's a lot of wonderful things

to like about Robinhood, and there's a lot of wonderful things to like about big tech. That doesn't mean that over time, the idolatry of innovators and their pursuit of wealth doesn't create, turn them into an absolute menace. And the question we all need to ask that illuminates the opportunity here, and this is an opportunity, is if we could go back in time and say, all right, over the course of the next 15 years, this individual, whether you think he is good or bad, is going to create an entity and acquire so much power and so much shareholder value that it's going to result, one of the externalities of his actions and his likability shield, his lipstick on cancer, is going to result or be one of the primary drivers of more teenage girls being admitted to hospital rooms because of self-harm and self-cutting. We're going to find that our elections, a key component of our democracy, are going to lose so much legitimacy at a minimum and maybe, maybe even perverted because they don't put in place the safeguards to protect the business

he develops. If we could go back in time, we would say we need to address this menace. We are at that point with Robinhood. They are using gamification. If you go and read the disclosures, if you go sign up for an account on Robinhood versus Schwab, you're going to recognize that this is different. They are trying, and then if you look at the visual cues and the gamification, the behavioral triggers, and the fact that they have no customer service, and the fact that they make their money by front-running or selling this data to hedge funds who can then front-run their consumer, the fact that if you find people stealing money from your account, you get

an automated email back, the fact that we are seeing young people or Robinhood traders trade 88 times on a size-adjusted basis the number of options as regular investors, you think, okay, when Robinhood goes down, all of a sudden there's a massive dip in volume in trading in the markets. This is not only a risk to our young men. It's a risk to the markets. It also absolutely outlines the odds of deterrence. They continue to violate SEC laws because at a $12 billion private valuation, their attitude is, hey, government, fuck you. Yeah, issue us your stupid tickets. It's like those movies where a guy gets pulled over in his Ferrari and someone writes him a ticket and he crumples up the ticket and throws it at them with a couple. Or it's like the Wolf of Wall Street when Leo

DiCaprio says to an SEC official to start throwing money at them and kicks him off his boat. That's what Robin Hood is doing. So, what I would ask, what I would, I want to salute the Secretary of Commerce. I think his name is Calvin. State. Secretary of, yeah. Secretary of Commerce, I think. No, it's Massachusetts Secretary of State, but go ahead. What was it? Anyways, thank you for that. I would say if you could go back in time and address a menace before it went public, before it got too much power, before we found that young men, a big leading cause of depression and market systemic risk in the market and blatant flouting of SEC laws, if you could go back in time and cauterize that nosebleed before it turned into an all-out hemorrhaging, would you do it? We're at that moment.

And by the way, when David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, issues these thoughtful warnings that the markets are getting overheated and then announces it to the lead underwriter for Robinhood, it's like, well, boss, the music isn't matching the words here. Well, come on. Come on, these guys. Well, anyways, this is an opportunity. This is an opportunity. William Galvin, just so you know, William Francis Galvin,

he's the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, but it's the Secretary of State. You win again. You win again. I want to make it accurate. You're correct. You win again. We are both correct correct we are both correct

he's the secretary of state but of the commonwealth of Massachusetts which is what it calls itself I would agree with you I think that the investor group is an aggressive group here in Robin Hood I think they will continue to throw money at these

company at these regulators and I think they'll just plow on forward. I just don't see, again, another righteous group of people. Like, how dare you? The amount of how dare you interrupt my jam is so high right now among these people, not just them, but everybody. They're doing what they want to do. They're doing what they want to do. And they're continuing in whether it's misogynistic behavior, whether it's sexist behavior, whether it's, you know, not adding enough diversity, they don't care. There's nothing, they aren't accountable. And so I think they will, this is great that they're doing this, but they will slough it off if they can and not address the actual issues.

Because they don't, they've convinced themselves there's not an actual issue here. And that they're democratizing, just like Facebook is helping small business, they're democratizing investing. And that's the only thing they'll look at. I just don't, I think the lack of self-awareness and self-reflection is so high that it's almost impossible to, like, I just don't. But we lack some self-awareness, and that is we need to elect more people like the Secretary of State who have the backbone to recognize an early menace and prevent a tragedy of the commons. These two young men who are the co-CEOs of Robin Hood, if we're waiting on their better angels to show up, if we think our shaming is going to change your behavior, don't hold your breath. When it's raining money, it blurs your

vision to the incremental decisions you make that might have a negative externality. And to a certain extent, it's not their job. You know what product feature perfectly defines the Robinhood app? There is a feature, no joke, that if you tap a button a hundred times within a certain amount of time, it unlocks a low, a high yield checking account. So if you start acting like a rat, if you go full rat, if you go full lizard brain on our app, you get rewards. I mean, this is, they're not even trying to hide that we're trying to addict you

with this kind of the dark behavioral triggers. And you're talking about young men in their basements. Oh, and by the way, I just want to really shout out all the tremendous changes and how seriously they took the suicide of Alex Kearns, a 20-year-old male who decided to throw himself in front of a train because he received an errant message that reflected incorrectly

that he owed $700,000 to Robin Hood. They've done, Robin Hood, thanks so much. You clearly, you know what? These two kids are the two people running them. I know one thing's for damn sure. They've done, Robinhood, thanks so much. You clearly, you know what, these two kids are the two people running them. I know one thing's for damn sure,

they don't have sons. This is, this company is a fucking menace. This is an opportunity to go back in time and find the menace before it turns

into a powerful menace. Well, let's name some names here. So, they have 18 rounds of funding, amount of funding $2.2 billion.

Guess who's in here? Andreessen Horowitz. What a surprise. And a thing called Ribbit Capital. There's a whole bunch of investors here who are part of this. And it's just D1 Capital Partners, IVP, TSG Consumer Partners, Sequoia Capital, DST, that's the group that originally invested in Facebook, DST Global. And so it's the same people. It's literally the same people. I actually have more faith in Goldman. There's an investment committee that has to approve IPOs. And I find that actually they do look at, I'm not as cynical. I do think that they look at a company, its ethics, the CEO.

I think this investment committee at Goldman needs to re-examine whether or not they want to be the lead underwriter on Robinhood. If they're truly concerned about the markets, and I'm not even talking about the morality. Well, dial up David. Why don't you dial up David and do a little- I like that a lot.

I think he's a good person. All right, then dial him up, Scott Galloway. You know? I'm just saying. I think they're not going to do anything. I think these people do it

every... At Facebook, they're going to do it at Robinhood. I think your idea of a menace economy is absolutely right. And they'll only do something

when it gets to a point of real pain for people or PR pain or something. They only moved on Travis Kalanick after a long, long time. This is the opportunity. This is the equivalent. They're not going to. This is the equivalent of primary care.

If we move, if, and that's not to say that Robinhood couldn't be a great company, but if they move in now and say, all right, you have to de-gamify this thing. You have to have better disclosures around what you are doing with this trading data. They are going to say, it's like an ounce of prevention here is going to save a pound of cure. This is the opportunity. Can I just say, they're not going to change if they don't think they're doing anything wrong and they don't think they're doing anything wrong. Well, I'm not saying they should do it to themselves. I have absolutely no faith in them to do the right thing. I'm saying that as the Secretary of the State of Massachusetts is doing, I would invite other AGs and Goldman Sachs to say, look, something is wrong in Mudville.

And before Mudville, before the squirt gun, which is squirting toxic shit into people's eyes, becomes a howitzer, and we have a real problem running it. And look at how much money it's going to cost. Look at the fight to reign in Facebook right now. Look how much damage they have levied on our nation and other nations. We're in a moment to cauterize that damage with Robinhood. Scott, I love your faith because I think they'll get some small things out of them. It won't be anything.

They'll go public. They'll have a party. They'll have an expensive wine dinner, mostly men, one woman. They will invest in each other's things and it will continue. Thank you. Kara, the world isn't what it is. It's what we make of it. There is no fate. There is no fate. The best way to predict the future is to make it. And let's make a future where we kick Robin Hood and those two fucking little jerks in the nuts. Let's be that foot. That's you and I. It doesn't

matter. I'm sorry. I'm in a mood like that. I just am like, they're not going to stop because they don't think they're wrong. And the kind of attention that needs to be brought to bear on them is great, but unless there's some real pain for them, they're not doing anything. Anyway, moving on, let's take a listener mail question presented by Yappa. You've got, you've got, I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've got mail. Hey, Scott and Kara. This is Kate from New York City.

The recent episode with Casey Newton about his move from The Verge to launching his own newsletter subscription on Substack got me thinking about the future of podcasting. We've seen a big shift in the monetization of content from an advertising model to subscription models, but for the most part, podcasts as a content form still rely on advertising. In the future, can you see popular podcasters jumping ship from the big networks to work for themselves on a subscription model like what Casey Newton did with Substack? If so, where do you see potential challenges and opportunities? Thanks for your thoughts.

Love the podcast. Has she been listening in on our phone calls? Yeah, I know. I think you should buy a Casper mattress is what we think. No, they're not a tempo fit. You need to buy a tempo fit. Listen, you're right. I don't know.

Scott, you're the brains of the operation. You know you're just more tactful to your employers than I am. Look, there's a gangster move going across big tech where they say, look, the fastest way to massively increase shareholder value by tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars, is to make our core product more sticky or more likable. So an e-commerce company is not that likable, but transparent and media is really likable. And so what they're doing is basically Hollywood, media and storytelling is so likable,

so companies that make money selling handsets and by offering $129 a year service called Prime, if they can just make that a tiny bit more likable, a tiny bit more sticky, it makes those things much more so valuable. So, a podcast that does $5 million a year in revenue, but kind of owns the space, is likable, that is worth a lot of money to Spotify, Amazon, Apple, and there's probably two or three other bidders on that. And so, you're going to see every, it's pretty easy, go through every category and podcast, take the top 10, look at the ones that are independent. In the next 12 months, they're all going to get offers that are irrational based on the economics

of that podcast itself. But we're about to see a ton of stuff go from ad-supported to behind-the-wall to try and draft. There's going to be Joe Rogan-like deals across every independent podcast. Yeah, that's some stuff there is free, and most of it's not behind the wall. Spotify does have a subscription. It's to advantage Spotify subscriptions, as do most of these things. What can you advantage? How can you get people to sign up for more?

And that would be one of the reasons. I want to get that. I want to get this. It's really an interesting issue because advertising business can be very strong. It absolutely can be. And for certain podcasts, we do very well in advertising.

But you do think really hard about a subscription model or a model where you want to be independent, really, because you can like, look, it's Casey. Casey talked about it. I think he's making his salary right now already, you know? And the question is, it's uncertain and it all relies on you, you know? So if you're not hooked up with someone. And it's the same thing like what's going on with a lot of creators with Netflix and the economics of Hollywood. It's changing. Do you want to be paid up front or do you want this back-end deal? Most people don't make money from back-end deals, right? Most, only a few people get the back-end that they talk about.

That's what they're arguing about. But I'm like, three of you get the back-end and the rest of you get nothing. They talk about, that's what they're arguing about. But I'm like, three of you get the back end and the rest of you get nothing. There was a really well-known producer who was like, I've only made money twice on back end, right? So the question is, how do you want to get paid and in which way?

And so a lot of people will be opting to be in a bigger company. The others will have done really well. You think about, you can see it in the journalism space a lot easier than the podcast space. But Joe Rogan's certainly the one who's pioneered this idea with the deal with, it's just not everybody can be Joe Rogan. That's the issue, correct? I mean. Well, it's going to be, I mean, you said a lot there, but there's a couple of things. One, your ability to go behind a wall and develop, wall and develop a direct-to-consumer, the

dispersion of creativity where you bypass the traditional points of distribution, if your own name, establish a direct-to-consumer model. That's just a different means of getting paid. The bigger shift here is that, so for example, you've already seen Warner's decision to go direct-to-consumer and launch on HBO Max at the same day, already pay dividends. I don't know if you saw, but Roku has finally come to an agreement with HBO Max because they've decided all of a sudden the HBO Max app is much more valuable to the NROCU consumer. And what do you know, when they announced that they're taking Wonder Woman 1984 to the

app the same day as theaters, all of a sudden Roku saw God and gave in to Warner's demands. And what do you know, last night they came to an agreement. So this is already proving to be a smart gangster move. But what you're going to see is you're going to see, it's all about a ratio. If your NPS is greater, much greater than your revenue, as they are in podcasts, the amount of goodwill that people feel towards their favorite podcasters relative to the revenue they generate creates an arbitrage where an acquirer can come in and leverage that goodwill and monetize that goodwill at an exponential rate,

which means you're going to see, just go through every podcast that's independent that gets more than half a million downloads a month. They're going to start getting calls and getting offers. Yeah. One of the things I think you have to also think about, not just about doing things on your own, is that what do you need these companies for? And that's really, and what are you,

how are you valuable to them? I think that's the real issue is like, sometimes like, how do they actually help, these big companies actually help you? Does Spotify actually help you or just give you money? And so I think that's, there's all kinds of, Scott's right, there's all, we're making, everyone's making calculations, like, and figuring out how they want to live and how they want to do this and where it's going, right? Ultimately, where it's going to go. Because, you know, as much as

people worry about a glut of these shows and there's too many of them and this and that, there aren't too many good ones. There just aren't, as in all things. There aren't too many ones that really stand out and they stand out because of the quality of the creativity of what they're doing. Whatever. Thank you. Well done. Join us on Sway.

Join us on Sway. Or the Prof G Show. Anyway, reminder. Anyway, we'll see. Just watch this space, we say to you. Thank you for the great question. We really appreciate it, Kate from New York City. And we hope you're doing well.

And you're apparently going to be having Mayor Andrew Yang or Mary Yang as your leader. Mary Yang. Yeah. All right. Reminder, for the month of December, we're partnering with YAPA to get more listener mail questions. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit your questions for the Pivot podcast. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.

The Capital Ideas Podcast now features a series hosted by Capital Group CEO, Mike Gitlin. Through the words and experiences of investment professionals, you'll discover what differentiates their investment approach, what learnings have shifted their career trajectories, and how do they find their next great idea? Invest 30 minutes in an episode today. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. You know what's not easy? Marketing. And when you're starting your small business, while you're so focused on the day-to-day, the personnel, and the finances,

marketing is the last thing on your mind. But if customers don't know about you, the rest of it doesn't really matter. Luckily, there's Constant Contact. Constant Contact's award-winning marketing platform can help your businesses stand out, stay top of mind, and see big results. Sell more, raise more, and build more genuine relationships with your audience through a suite of digital marketing tools made to fast track your growth. With Constant Contact, you can get email marketing that helps you create and send the perfect email to every customer,

and create, promote, and manage your events with ease, all in one place. Get all the automation, integration, and reporting tools that get your marketing running seamlessly, all backed by Constant Contact's expert live customer support. Ready, set, grow. Go to constantcontact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to constantcontact.ca for your free trial. Constantcontact.ca. contact dot C-A. Okay, Scott, we're back. Just for people who don't know, Scott's not going to be here for the next couple of weeks because he

has to vacation again and Carol Swisher keeps working as usual. We're going to be doing... Not next week, the week after next. Next week we're doing our big prediction show, wrap-up show with the help of some friends of Pivot and then Scott's going to go on vacation. But to tide us over till then, give us a prediction, please. I mean, you better come to some, we're going to have people asking people predictions, but we need a lot from you.

So, I want one right now, and then I want you to have at least a dozen for next week. Well, I'm trying to come up with new ones. So, I'm doing my prediction live stream tonight, which will be yesterday if you've already listened to this and I've had, or we've had 9,500 people sign up. But anyways, enough about me. That's good.

That's a lot, right? Maybe you could do a subscription service. Yeah, I could do a subscription service. Anyways, Casey, Casey. So I wanted to come up with two predictions

that aren't in my deck where I've spent a ton of time thinking about this stuff. A couple of things. One, I do think there's going to be, I'm hoping that some of the momentum against the tyranny of big tech is spilling over and people are taking a harder look and saying, you know what, we need to inoculate ourselves. We need a vaccine against this virus that's plagued us, and that is the idolatry of innovators. And specifically, the menace that we are going to, I think, try and beat back before it gets too powerful is Robinhood. And I think that Goldman Sachs, and I think the IPO markets, and I think regulators are going to put up some speed bumps. I don't think that the Robinhood IPO is going to

go as swimmingly or even happen as soon as the investors would like to think. So, my prediction is more to come on Robinhood. I think where the public is just getting educated as to the damage to the Commonwealth. And then my other prediction, which is more- Have you been talking to people? which is more talking to people uh my my my my pregnant pause is full of insight i saw that anyways you heard that you felt that yes okay so moving on um i think that zoom could be the aol of 2021 whoa um some people think it's gonna get sold but, but go ahead. Well, that's it. As was AOL, Cara. Oh, right. Oh, fair. I thought you meant the same. And then it ended up being one of the worst acquisitions in history. When I look at Zoom, by the way, I love it. I love the product. It's got a market capitalization of about $120 billion,

which was approximately the market capitalization of AOL at the peak. And when I think of Zoom, and I look at the competitive set, I look at Salesforce and Slack, I look at Microsoft and I look at Teams and I think my guess is those companies when they introduce

a video product could be very, very formidable competitors to Zoom and I wonder if the vaccine and some of the biggest, baddest, most well-resourced

enterprise-wide products showing up and taking on Zoom, I think Zoom is going to do a couple of things. I think Zoom is either going to go out and merge with a gigantic telco or gigantic company, or I think it needs to start buying other things really fast. Yeah. And I think looking back on 2021, whatever deal it does, I wonder if Zoom declines in value. I think Zoom could be our generation's AOL and that it is run by smart people. I think they

will decide to cash in on this market capitalization and either go on an acquisition binge or merge with another very large kind of old mainline company. Yeah, they got to sell. They got to sell or buy or merge. I'm not sure their moats love the product, but I think they are playing, you know, they're a fast-growing beluga whale that's all of a sudden attracted the attention of orcas, the apex predators of the seas.

Yeah, in a product that they can copy easily. Probably, yeah. They don't have a magic sauce, I agree. I think people use it and are used to it, that sees. Yeah, in a product that they can copy easily. Probably, yeah. It's not, they don't have a magic sauce. I agree. I think people use it and are used to it and that's the magic sauce

is that people during this pandemic have started, it's a better product. By the way, it's better than Google stuff. I always have all kinds of glitchy problems

with Google. It's because Google's not focusing on it as much as Zoom is. Great product. But you're right. It's their opportunity to move and they should be moving. I'm assuming they are because you sort of are like, should Slack have sold a

lot earlier? Maybe they wouldn't have gotten as much money, but they certainly would have been bigger. Instagram sold early. A lot of people feel he took a billion dollars. It was worth many, many, many more billions than he took. But that said, it got bigger because of Facebook. But that said, it got bigger because of Facebook. I'm always, in this case, sell. Sell and sell for as much as you can. 100%. And it's a big win. Everyone can high five.

And to buy something, that's going to require a whole lot of executive execution that they probably lack. Or they could merge with Atlassian and have more of a suite of products. But I actually think the one that is best poised and the product that I think is, it doesn't get the kudos it deserves in terms of product quality because we don't like to like them because they're so big and dominant. I think probably the best product in that space is Teams. I think Teams is a fantastic product. Yeah. Having used them all, Google's just blown it. I've had so many glitchy problems with Google Meet. It's just crazy. I'm like, put some smart people on it, Sundar.

I'm sure the people there are smart. It's just not as good. It's just not as good. It doesn't work as well with Apple and stuff. In any case, sell, sell, sell, sell now. Sell now, like yesterday. I'm assuming they're in talks with people. So two predictions.

Robin Hood's menace, Robinhood as a menace, the menace that is Robinhood is getting more warranted awareness. And I think there's going to be action against them on several different dimensions. And two, I think looking back, and this is a prediction we have to look back in three years,

I think Zoom is shaping up to be the AOL of 2021. All right. Excellent prediction, Scott. And you will have a whole lot more next week. As a reminder, we love listener mail questions. We're trying something new. Go to nymag.com slash pivot

to submit your question for the podcast. The link is also in our show notes. And your thing is tonight, so people already signed up. But listen to Scott Galloway's prediction show that he's doing today. The live one tonight. It's tonight, correct? Yes, it's tonight. Okay. So you can listen to it afterwards. Do you want to do a Zoom bomb? Do you want to drop in? I could, if you'd like. Let me know. That'd be fun,

right? You didn't invite me yet. Like last minute. I got 170 slides in 45 minutes, but I'll carve out time for you. Can I porn bomb them? That is always welcome. Okay, I figured. That is always welcome. Okay, all right. Anyway, read us out, Scott Galloway. Today's episode was produced by Rebecca Sinanis. Ernie Indradot engineered this episode. Erica Anderson is Pivot's executive producer.

Thanks also to Hannah Rosen and Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts. If you like what you heard, please recommend it to a friend. Isn't the time to address a menace early? What could we do if we could go back in time and address Facebook? This is that moment with Robin Hood. Talk to your lawmaker. Are you Cher right now? If I could turn back time. That's where we should end. Have a good rest of the week. Have a good rest of the week. Have a great weekend. Well, that's why we built HubSpot. It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze.

So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Support for this podcast comes from Klaviyo. You know that feeling when your favorite brand really gets you. Deliver that feeling to your customers every time. Klaviyo turns your customer data into real-time connections across AI-powered email, SMS, and more, making every moment count.

Over 100,000 brands trust Klaviyo's unified data and marketing platform to build smarter digital relationships with their customers during Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and beyond. Make every moment count with Klaviyo. Learn more at klaviyo.com slash BFCM.