Pivot - Facebook's monopoly reckoning, the Pfizer vaccine begins, and predictions for Airbnb stock

Episode Date: December 11, 2020

Kara and Scott discuss the FTC and 48 states bringing a lawsuit to Facebook, alleging it is a social media monopoly. They also discuss the future of vaccine distribution, starting in the UK. In listener mail, Kara and Scott answer a question about Apple's new chip. And in predictions, Scott and Kara talk Airbnb. Send us your Listener Mail questions through our site, nymag.com/pivot and use Yappa to leave a video or audio message. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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of the Bose Corporation. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. Cara, nothing really in the news. What are we going to talk about? Oh, my God. What are we going to talk about?

Crazy! And what happened today? The thing that Cara has been waiting for for so long? What's that? The FTC took action against Facebook, finally, with a little bit more than just a slap on the wrist. But we're going to get to that. The FTC and a bunch of states, right? A 40 states, 20 Democratic, 20 Republican. This is trouble for Facebook, although I don't feel sorry for Facebook because they're just now hiring every lawyer in the District of Columbia, I suspect. So we're going to get to that in a minute.

But first, there's so much other stuff going on. The election is still being disputed, even though Trump has lost 50 cases, I guess, including in the Supreme Court. How do you feel about that? cases, I guess, including in the Supreme Court. How do you feel about that? I just think it's embarrassing. And, you know, I almost feel like we should just ignore it. It's just gotten so ridiculous. Yeah. And then Rudy went in the hospital, obviously. And then Jenna Ellis got sick. They all got sick. They all got COVID. Yeah. No, that's... The whole thing is so strange. I think, yes, you're right. I think everyone's a little tired of it, of the whole situation, and the losing continues.

You know, it was very exciting today, or yesterday, I should say. What's that? The first, really, the first citizen that wasn't part of a test trial received the first vaccine in the United Kingdom. Yes, it was V-Day, as they say. Yeah, that's right, a 90-year-old grandmother,

and it really reflects... I mean, it's really wonderful A 90-year-old grandmother. And it really reflects, I mean, it's really wonderful when you think about it. It reflects cooperation. It reflects humanity. It reflects science. It reflects a concern for other people. And it also reflects what is probably, I think if you got a bunch of people together and said, all right, what is the greatest invention, the best product that reflects our humanity, our empathy, and our general awesomeness as a species? I think most people would zero in on vaccines. Yeah, they would. Except, like, it would be nice if we could have those qualities getting to the vaccine because we're still, even though this lovely old woman has now been vaccinated. And I think the second person in Britain was a guy named William Shakespeare, which was funny.

Nice. But that's great. I still think this idea of vaccine is the magical answer to something with all these people dead. I'm sorry. We could have been cooperative going through all of it. It's as if, you know, I think that the doctor, we had Dr. Mina when he said it's like there's been bombing and we're like the F, you know, the F-22 will be ready soon. Like that kind of thing that nobody thought. Yeah, just wait.

Yeah, just as soon as we have the nuclear bomb, the war will be over. That kind of thing. And so I do appreciate that this is here. And I don't know when I'm going to get the vaccine. I don't know when you are. Where do we think we are in line, Scott? Probably in the back, right? You know what?

I'm kind of old. Realistically, we're wealthy white Americans, which probably means we're near the front of the line. Probably, right. I mean, I think we're actually, unfortunately, I think we're going to get it for a lot of reasons or have access to it, I should say, sooner than most people think. And the most discouraging reason why we'll probably get it sooner. Pay. Well, not only that. Because it's not supposed to cost anything, by the way, for anybody.

Not only our quote-unquote white privilege, but also something as disturbing, and that is I think a lot of people are going to opt to either not get it or wait. I have been shocked by how many people have said, no, I'm not going to do the first one. I'm going to wait. I'm fairly healthy. Yeah, a lot of people. Keep in mind, I live in Florida. That's true. Right?

That's who you forget. And I think, you know what? And usually you and I should do this because, you know, we're influencers. We should come down to Florida and get a shot. I think we should start a movement. I like the notion of first in line. And what I find discouraging is that people look at their decision of whether or not to take a vaccine through the lens of, is it dangerous or is a good thing for me? And I think that's the wrong way to think about it.

And that is, if you think about what COVID-19 is, it's this net that's constantly sweeping through America. And every person that contracts it becomes another fiber in that net, such that when that net sweeps through America, it's more likely to find the vulnerable and either put them in a hospital, permanently damage them, disable them, or even kill them. Yeah. And getting COVID-19, even if there's a 99.9% likelihood you will survive, you become another fiber in the net that is grabbing people. Yes, the net. The net. And killing them. All right, we're going to talk more about this in big stories, especially its impact on business, like how businesses are going to react to this. There's some very good stories about whether you should force your employees to get vaccinated. We're going to get to that in a minute. Also, Google is ending its ban on political ads this week,

while YouTube is tightening its rules around videos about election misinformation. What does that even mean? What does that even mean? There's another election every five minutes. I think they should keep a lot of these things in place. I don't understand. I think, again, it's haphazardness around these misinformation and disinformation. But is that meant to confuse us?

Google is ending its ban while YouTube is... They're different companies, whether you realize. But by the way, they're under antitrust scrutiny. I think they're going to spin off from each other at some point. I wouldn't be surprised. Yeah, I wouldn't either. There's more action against Google coming, by the way, they're under antitrust scrutiny. I think they're going to spin off from each other at some point. I wouldn't be surprised. Yeah, I wouldn't either. There's more action against Google coming, by the way, by the government. Anyway, and also DoorDash's market debut.

Oh, my gosh. Talk to me, Scott. Oh, my gosh. Okay. So tomorrow is Airbnb, right? Yeah, yeah. And for everyone's benefit, we're recording a day early because Kara was nice enough to accommodate my weird schedule. But anyways, Airbnb is set- Because I like to work all day from 8 to 8, 9. Go ahead.

You'd like to be with the dog day and night. That's what it is. Are you available? No, I have the morning off. I sure am. No, I have the morning off. You know who I'm interviewing tomorrow? Who's that? Brene Brown. Oh, yeah. Brene Brown nice. Brene Brown. She's the, you know, the shame therapist. Huh.

The vulnerability therapist. Ah, V therapy. Yeah. I like it. Yeah, you have a lot of shame, don't you? Anyway, let's, go ahead, Blockbuster.

I mean, the Blockbuster, not Blockbuster. They went out of business in 2012. DoorDash's Blockbuster market debut, not Blockbuster, the video situation.

Yeah, price at 100, close at 180. This is a company DoorDash is Blockbuster market debut, not Blockbuster the video. Yeah, price at 100, close at 180. This is a company that has substitutes. It's losing money. And what you have here, it's kind of the mother of all people trying to get through a crowded door. First off, all other asset classes are not impaired, but bonds yield nothing. No one wants to be in treasuries. So why not jump in here?

Interest rates are low. People have a lot of money, so they go into stocks, but they don't want to go into any stocks. They want to go into tech and they don't want to go into any stock or any tech stock. They want to go into stocks that are tech stocks that are disruptors or have the reputation for being disruptors. In addition, a lot of these companies, you know, when it says it has a $60 billion market cap, yeah, sort of, but only about $6 billion of the float of the shares was floated. So what you have is the mother of all crowds trying to get through a crowded door here. Oh, dear. This is beginning to feel a little bit frightening. $60 billion.

It feels very 2000 to me. Oh, no, it feels very 1999. 1999, well, right, yeah. It really does. And now, as of right now- Because that merger came in January, if you remember. That was the high point, the AOL Time Warner merger. But go ahead. Sorry, 1999. Well, as a multiple of revenues, standing here today, DoorDash is trading at double the revenues of Uber. And while they're both menace economy firms using software to circumvent minimum wage

laws and steal tips from their drivers, Uber has, in my opinion, more moats, a better brand, and probably even a better business model than DoorDash. Oh my God, you're complimenting Uber. Yeah, I know. Isn't that weird? I love that Mark Zuckerberg. Where's it going? Where's it going? I love that Mark. I love this guy. We're going to talk about him right now in the big stories, but where's it going?

Where's DoorDash going? Like, you didn't write about Palantir. It just stays there, even though here's the Biden people. I've got these wrong. Listen, this is a reality. In this market, every time I say a stock's going up, I'm right. Well, even if you think it's an idiotic thing, how do you play it? Well, but we said this.

What did we say on Tuesday? I said the stock was going to be up 30% to 60%. I was wrong. It was up 70% or 80%. But basically, I just have a tough time wrapping my head around this valuation. It's just $60 billion. So, look, I think what it portends, quite frankly, I can't even imagine. And by the time this airs, we'll already know.

I can't even imagine what's going to happen to airs, we'll already know. I can't even imagine what's going to happen to Airbnb. Big. Oh, my gosh. Everyone's a little relieved. Like, let's get back to business. I think they're in that, like, let's focus on the future. That's my dogs you're hearing in the background. Yeah. Okay. All right. So, we're going to see. What do you think the Airbnb, if this came to 60, what is Airbnb? 100? Pick a number, Scott. I think Airbnb, well, they've already raised their range, but I think Airbnb tomorrow, let me put it this way. I think tomorrow,

Airbnb is bigger than the five next biggest hospitality or travel firms combined. It's going to be, I think it's just going to be crazy tomorrow. I can't imagine how DoorDash gets out and doubles and goes to $60 billion. Airbnb is supposed to price at $40 billion. Yeah. So, if you benchmark off of DoorDash, this feels, Airbnb feels to me like $80 to $100 billion. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. $100. I say $100. I'm going to go with $100. $100. Okay. That means, that's a lot. That means the stock would go up 150% on the first day. I don't know. That's serious cabbage. I guess I should have been nicer to Brian Chesky, but there you go.

All right. Serious cabbage. Okay, big stories. We're going on to big stories. After 18 months of investigations, the Federal Trade Commission, as we just noted, and more than 40 states accused Facebook of being an illegal monopoly. There's all kinds of nuances here, but the lawsuits allege that Facebook's purchases, especially Instagram and WhatsApp

for $19 billion, eliminate any possible external competition. It's about a pattern of behavior that the FTC is talking about, and the states have added an extra charge on about other behaviors.

The prosecutors are calling for Facebook to unwind the deals with Instagram and WhatsApp, and there are new restrictions on future deals. Facebook is announced it was buying something for a billion dollars last week, I forget. So it's kind of cheeky. Yeah, cheeky. Cheeky they are in the middle of this. They knew this was coming. So thoughts? I have a lot of thoughts. I know a lot of stuff. I think you know more. This is your ball. You're on with it. All right. I think this is really interesting. One thing is that the timing of it, I think, is really interesting.

But one thing, the unity between the states and the FTC was important because the FTC is outgunned. And so they can do things together. They can share things. They're going to do the legal stuff themselves, I understand, not bringing an outside person. But they will share economists and things like that. So that, I think, is really important, the unity. And the fact that the states are, I think it's 2020 Republican-Democrats. So that's important.

The voting on this thing is interesting from what I understand. The chairman voted for it. The two Democrats voted for it. And the two Republicans didn't. So the timing of this was if this chairman is allegedly leaving the FTC, that's been reported by a bunch of people, he hasn't announced that yet, but then it would leave at a 2-2 commission. And Mitch McConnell, of course, if he won the –

everything swings on these Georgia seats that are up for grabs. And Mitch McConnell is pro-business, and this probably wouldn't necessarily get through or there would be a face off. So this is one of the other reasons. And I think this commissioner, Republican commissioner, is sort of a down the line centrist person and wanted it to get out there. And he was the one that started a lot of the technology offices around this issue at the FTC. So it's just it shows you when there's not a sort of, there's a reasonable people talking with each other. Things can happen and bipartisanship can happen. A couple of things, it matters who the judge is in the district. They're worried, I think, I suspect, if you have

something like Richard Leon, who handled AT&T Time Warner merger, which did not, that the government was not able to win. That's a problem if there's another judge named Tim Kelly. And it depends on who gets it, who is a trumpet pointy, another worry, quite pro-business. And then, of course, there's the money Facebook has to spend on this. I think they're going to buy out every lawyer in the world to take on this case. And then lastly, the arguments that Facebook are already making

are very victim-y, as usual. This is, you know, in keeping with their ways. They're talking about it like it's a do-over, that you can't do a do-over. It's been eight years since the thing when the FTC approved it. Let me be clear, the FTC never approved this. They just didn't decline to prosecute. So, this whole do-over argument that Facebook is using is specious, specious, specious they are. And their supporters, specious. Interesting, Josh Hawley was pro it. I haven't seen Elizabeth Warren's tweet, but I'm guessing she's doing jumping jacks right now.

But, you know, this is something that a lot of people on both sides of the aisle support. Not the Trump administration, which is friends of Facebook, FOF. Friends of Mark, FF, friends of Mark Foms. So that's where we are. So that's where I think. I think Facebook is probably nervous, but they are going to go to the mats, go to the mattresses with this one.

Yeah, yeah. This is the beginning of the end of big tech as we know it. And your point is the right one. Because the Google thing, too, is happening over at the Justice Department. Well, the DOJ going after Google is one point. But the DOJ going after Google, the FTC going after Facebook, plus 46 AGs, that's three points. 40, was it 40? Yeah.

That's three points on a line. This is the equivalent of, this is, and again, I apologize for all the war metaphors, This is the Russians, the British, and the Americans. They've got AGs. They've got states to deal with. They've got, this is momentum. This is okay. Everyone is lining up at the border against us. And this is a trend now. This isn't singling out Google and Google trying to, this is all, as is typically the case here, the most interesting thing will be the second order effects. And that when they announced this today, the stock was only up 2%. And I actually think the stock's going to go up because, one, when people – people are going to realize – Because they'll break it up.

Well, Facebook has – Facebook's performed well, but not as well as the other guys because the market hates uncertainty. Yeah. And people are going to get their pencils out and realize that a unique Instagram would trade for a lot. Oh, yeah. And not only that, what people fail to realize with antitrust is you don't know, consumers don't know what they're missing. So, for example, query me this. Query me this? WhatsApp.

Did you just say query me this? Or answer me this. I like query me this. Query me this? WhatsApp. Did you just say query me? Or answer me this. I like query me this. I am William Shakespeare. I just received a vaccine. Anyways, I'm COVID free and erudite. Me thinks the Scott Duth protest too much. Yes, there you go. All right. And do good with me. So, okay. So, let's talk about WhatsApp. Imagine WhatsApp hadn't been acquired by Facebook. Yes. That means at some point it would have had to have found a business model or revenue. Yes.

Do you think it's maybe likely or there's a non-zero probability that WhatsApp would have said, I don't know, let's get into workplace collaboration or I don't know, let's get into video? Yeah. I do think that when you're cooperating and coordinating, there's a certain lack of innovation. And I think we're going to find that WhatsApp, which is arguably the biggest telco in the world, is we're going to unleash tremendous innovation and product development as an independent WhatsApp. Agreed. One of the things that they have to argue, though, is that without Facebook, they would have gotten killed. So they had to get bought, that kind of thing. they would have gotten killed. So they had to get bought, that kind of thing. That's one of the things they have to show is that they killed innovation, that they killed the ability for people to innovate. So it's a pattern of quashing competition. And it's not so much you can either

buy your rivals, it's through buying them that you do it, not from quashing them. So it's an interesting and different slightly legal argument here. There's also a way to do it by, you know, getting and paying them not to do it, quashing them or buying them. So let me just finish. And the first line in my book about AOL was Bill Gates talking to Steve Case when he was thinking about buying it. He'd say, we'll either buy you, build it, or put you

out of business. We have these choices and stuff, so it's sort of classic. Well, the New York AG, Letitia James, has said, key to her complaint is this join or die narrative is anti-competitive, and you're not allowed to do that. Right. But the other thing that I think this portends is that I think Amazon will spin AWS or another business unit. Yeah, they got to move. Because they're coming. Amazon, by the way, Amazon, in case you're interested, you're next. You know this. Oh, 100%.

And then what did Tim Cook do within hours or minutes? He's not next. Amazon is next. Well, Google might be next. And then Amazon is not next. Amazon is next. Well, Google might be next. And then Amazon is so next. He had a very staged press release, though, or comments. And he basically, Tim Cook, is trying to disarticulate himself from the rest of big tech. And he basically said, you're awful.

You deserve this. So, one, Facebook stock goes up once people realize that an independent WhatsApp and an independent, that the whole is less than the sum of its parts here. Two, Amazon prophylactically decides they do not want bureaucrats deciding their futures. So they're going to do a kind of behind the scenes deal and say, okay, what if we did this? What if we spun fulfillment or what if we spun AWS? And I think arguably one of the most valuable companies in the world in the next year is going to be an independent WhatsApp once they decide to go after Zoom. Yeah. Or once they decide to go after Slack.

WhatsApp is a sleeping giant. And it was basically being used as a feeder to provide data into the advertising conglomerate of data, you know, data or propaganda for hire. So this is the best case for Facebook is breaking up. Best case. What do you think they will do? Not what's their best case. What will they do? What's going on with Cheryl and Mark right now?

Are they eating dinner? Because it's what time? Early. It's 4.22 p.m. in Palo Alto or Menlo Park. I don't know. What are they doing? They're going for a little kombucha walk. No, they're not at the office.

They're at their own mansions and stuff. What are they doing? You know, I was almost his neighbor. I'd be able to say, hey, what's going on? I am his neighbor in San Francisco in his other house. He has a house near me in San Francisco. Anyways, we all have proximity to Mark. I have no idea.

I do think, though— I want you to imagine. I want you to use your fetid imagination. I imagine he's spreading La Roche-Posay over the small of his back and looking at himself in a mirror and doing dress-up. I don't know. I have no idea what he's doing. No, I mean, who's going to—

That's what I would do if I was Mark Zuckerberg. So it's going to be run by this Jennifer person who's their general counsel, and they'll bring in every lawyer in the country. But what is he thinking? I want you to try. He's bathing in a tub of Zacapa. That's the shit I would do. Literally.

And I'd have all sorts, I'd have like basically a near-dead prostitute with a condom hanging out of his ass and a half-drink bottle of Jack next to a velvet couch. That's what I would be doing if I was Mark Zuckerberg. All right. Oh, my God. I asked you a serious question.

The canceling is coming. I did. The canceling is coming. You've already been canceled. You're uncancelable, unfortunately, sadly for me, as much as I've tried. That is true of nobody. That is true of nobody. Listen.

Listen. Listen to me. Okay. I need you to answer me. What is he thinking? What is his strategery? I think Mark Zuckerberg, personally, I think that— I want a business one.

I don't want anything to do with condoms, prostitutes, or drinking. Okay. Simply put, they will absolutely come out full force against this. They'll try and hire the biggest, angriest people in the world. And then if he listens to anybody, which I'm not sure he does, because his board is basically sycophants and weirdos, he would go to them and say, okay, what if I do X, Y, and Z? Because I still have a lot of faith in the government. Michael Milken was one of the wealthiest men in the world, one of the smartest men in the world. And when the DOJ showed up, and the SEC—

They didn't really get him. He then had a big conference. And then he's getting pardoned or whatever. He went to prison. He did. He did. But I'm just saying, he lived in large. He went to prison. We're not talking about prison here. Yeah, no, no, no.

I mean, that's the thing. Mark Zuckerberg, they're acting—everyone's acting like this is such a crisis of humanity for Facebook. No, it's not. If you're at Facebook right now, guess what? You're rich. Regardless of what Zuckerberg tells you and how he has to try to rally you as a troop, you will be wealthier and happier when this company is broken up. Yeah, you will. You don't have to go to Congress.

You don't have to go, like, be bothered. You don't think – Senator Bresci strikes me as a guy who likes products and likes business. He's got to be sick of this shit. He's probably like, thank God, just get it over with. He's definitely not an angry man. He's definitely not an angry man. He's definitely not an angry man. Let's see. Let's see.

I don't see Elizabeth Warren commenting on this. Let's see, Elizabeth. Oh, the FTC and 48 states now recognize what I've been arguing for. You're right, it's 48 states. For a long time, Facebook's power snuffs out the competition, and Instagram and WhatsApp purchases should be unwound. There's more work to do, but this is a big step in the fight to break up tech. That wasn't as angry as I expected. You know, as you know, Mark called Elizabeth Warren his existential threat, you know?

Well, that's, I don't know. His existential threat is Senator Elizabeth Warren. Yeah, that's what he said. Well, then he's focused on the wrong things. His existential threat. I Elizabeth Warren. Yeah, that's what he said. Well, then he's focused on the wrong things. It's existential threat. I mean, first off, you know what you're going to see in every word, whatever their official response is in their next press release, there's going to be every other word is going to be tick, and the other word is going to be talk.

All they're going to say, it's going to be a thinly veiled racist trope that those Chinese, those communists, those dirty virus-gearing communists are coming for us. He started that one out for me. He started it out for me. And we're the warriors. And if he listens to anybody, they'll say, boss, get back to innovating. WhatsApp's going to be amazing on its own. You're still going to be the largest shareholder.

You're still going to be wealthier. You know, you can't stop the hair loss. You can't stop the weirdness, but you can get on with life. Get on with life, my brother. And by the way, Facebook employees, this is going to be great for you. It's going to be great for you.

Okay, last question. Letitia James, the Attorney General of New York, has been a powerhouse along with Elizabeth Warren, along with Josh Hawley. There's a lot of interest in being a husband and powerhouse and holding Facebook accountable. What do you see for her future? Letitia? Yeah.

Or Attorney General James? I don't know, but I've got one of the biggest compliments of my life was her office called me and asked me for a quote for the press release. I don't know if it made it in because they know I'm a hater. But she brought together a bunch of people. I think she's clearly someone to keep your eye on. My sense is you have more—you have a better eye for this than I do. But my sense is that she has ambitions. I think she's going to run for governor is my sense. And this is kind of her coming out party for—I don't know if that's considered a hate crime now to say that. But I think she's basically— this is her stage left high. I'm lead in this Bob Fosse production.

And she's also going after Ivanka Trump. Ivanka Trump attacked her, so that's a good thing for her. I love this woman. I love this woman. I don't care what she's running for. She's got my vote. Anyway, they're going to go after her hard. Let me just say it. Make her general consulate of Australia. She's made a lot of scary enemies in any case. Just so you know, I just got, someone in my sources said that Airbnb is priced at $68 a share.

It's pricing at 68? Yeah, $47 billion valuation. They keep raising it. That means it's, that means basically- The last private was 18 billion. Yeah, it went down from 30. It went to 18 in the depths of the pandemic. That means basically... Those people who are in on the pandemic part look good. Yeah, so basically in the

last 12 hours, it's gone up $15 billion because of the success of DoorDash. All the existing shareholders are like, fuck that. We don't want to give a bunch of unearned gains to the clients of Goldman and Morgan. So it's unlikely to double then, but I think you're probably looking at over triple digits tomorrow on the first trade. Yeah. So that would be, if it got to 80 or 80, that doesn't take much to get to 80, it gets to 90, say, right? Yeah.

It's $125 a share. It's almost six, something like that. Absolutely crazy. Anyways, what do you think of it? No, no, $136. We're back to crazy absolutely crazy anyways what do you think no no 136 back to Attorney General James what do you think yeah

I think that she's wonderful I think she's really interesting I think they're going to come after her with everything if she has any messy bits she better clean them up

I don't know I just think they're going to they're coming at her I think it's very you know the Trumps and Facebooks of the world are going to come at her. Oh, I think she's absolutely.

She's picking wonderful targets. Yeah, I know. She is. Facebook and Ivanka Trump. That's literally, if I end up in a room with them, I'm like, oh, wait, I'm in hell. All that shit has finally come back to roost and I'm in hell. Ivanka Trump. Yeah.

Ivanka. Try something new. That's my favorite. That's my favorite. Her advice to people in the pandemic, try something new. Her tweets lately are flat out insane. Have you heard the rumor? The rumor is she's floated this.

Clearly some of her offices floated this. She's thinking about running for Florida governor. Oh, Rhonda Sand. That would be the nice shiv to Rhonda Sand, who's been such a suck up to them. That would be hilarious. Heiv to Rhonda Sand, who's been such a suck-up to them. That would be hilarious. He's been like suck-up number one, although their suck-ups aren't as sucky as they were.

Only the Texas people and the Florida people are sucking up. The Georgia people and the Arizona people, no. Ducey and Kemp, who were suck-ups, are not as sucky up. They'll be back to suck-up as they need to be, but I have to say, it's been a pleasure to watch their suck-ups turn on them. Anyway, all right, we're going to go to a quick break.

When we come back, we'll talk about COVID vaccine being distributed in the UK and a listener mail question. We're going to talk about the implications on business. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle.

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the Bose Personal Plus sound system, you can get closer to everything you love about city life in the all-new reimagined Nissan Kicks. Learn more at www.nissanusa.com slash 2025 dash kicks. Available feature, Bose is a registered trademark of the Bose Corporation. Bose is a registered trademark of the Bose Corporation. Okay, Scott, we're back. Obviously, the beginning of the end of the pandemic with this vaccine. Hopefully, if people have an uptake of 60 to 70 percent, this is what the two creators of this Pfizer vaccine told me in an interview recently.

Thousands of people in Britain are getting it. There's not enough. Meanwhile, there's been a massive surge of COVID-19 cases in Britain are getting it. There's not enough. Meanwhile, there's been a massive surge of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. Southwest, and data shows that the U.S. is nearing capacity for ICU beds. On Tuesday, Dr. Fauci said the United States could get a coronavirus pandemic under control by the back half of 2021 if enough people are vaccinated, which is what we've been talking about. And Canada just approved the Pfizer vaccine, and the FDA could grant emergency approval within days. It looks like it's headed that way. Trump had a little party saying he's the reason it happened. It is not even slightly the case. And the two heads of Pfizer and Moderna, I think, declined to go to his vaccine summit,

because they don't want to listen to him, I guess. So talk about the impact, if it's going to be the back half of 2021. Companies are still in this sort of crouch position. Yeah, but I think that we're going to be shocked at how getting back to normal, there is no normal anymore. There's a new normal. I think we're going to be struck by how structural and not cyclical some of these changes are. I think people have gotten used to the, I think of it as the Great Dispersion. And I think the dispersion of headquarters to people's homes is a structural shift. I think the dispersion of media to our homes is a structural shift. The dispersion of retail. I mean, these things just aren't going to change. I think we're

going to be struck. I think so many of these companies are in denial waiting for people to get back to the office or back to movie theaters. And it's just not going to happen. And if you think about it, I mean, I'm definitely a glass half empty kind of guy. But I've been thinking about, and it's scary here, the dispersion of our, the greatest wealth creating trends of the last 30 years have been globalization and, loosely speaking, what you'd call digitization. And where we got it wrong there, where we really fucked up, was we let all the spoils go to, quote-unquote, information-age workers, and we didn't invest anything in the people that got left behind, whether it was worker retraining or empathy or recognizing that whole swaths of the American economy got left behind. And this dispersion of trillions of dollars of commercial real estate to residential, but not only that, but productivity. I mean, I don't know about you, but if you really look at your calendar, you are a juggernaut of content right now.

I am. I don't know what's going on. There's no commuting. Think about this. Think about all the friction. I've worked like this my whole life. I have. It's just not more noticeable. I don't know what's going on. There's no commuting? Think about this. Think about all the friction. I've worked like this my whole life. I have. It's just not more noticeable. I've not been to the office. I don't go to the office very often. Okay, but in the last, literally in the last six hours, I've taught 280 kids from NYU Stern over Zoom.

Yes, fair, fair. More productive. I've done two podcasts, an interview on CBS this morning. I mean, you can do so much now. It's just crazy. With all the technology. Yes, you can. With the tech and a bunch of Zoom meetings. And we talked about bringing down the quality.

Like, you do a lot of TV now. You don't need all these studios that we used to have to go to and get the makeup on. That was an hour and a half or whatever. That's right. Getting there, getting back, waiting around for a six-minute hit. Town car. A six-minute hit on MSNBC used to be two and a half hours. Now it's 10 minutes.

Yeah. I'm not going to get, I'm not taking a limousine to their whatever. I still put on makeup though, but that's for me. That's me time, Cara. So let me ask you a question. So businesses, how do we get people, but you're still going to go into this vaccinated situation with this happening. So you're one of your favorite people, Daniel Schreiber from Lemonade, who you lick up and down constantly. I love Daniel.

He wrote a piece called, Why Every Company Should Ask Every Employee to Get Vaccinated with Pandemic Raging Vaccine Hesitancy Must Be Overcome. And he said, that's where corporate responsibility comes in. A corporate directive coupled with educational sessions can inject the urgency and reassurance needed to move the needle. Ha, ha, thanks, Daniel. With COVID-19 killing at a rate of 500 people per hour, a sense of urgency is just what the doctor ordered. Oh, my God, someone's got to help him, right? Anyway, but he was saying this is what has to happen is corporations have to take this. And Hannah, a lot of people are nervous to tell their employees what to do.

lot of people are nervous to tell their employees what to do. And he said, while our employees, families, communities, and shareholders will surely benefit from this policy, the blowback from zealots is equally assured, but their tantrum about the purported outrage on personal liberty is an old song. We mustn't prolong the pandemic in order to escape their indignant tweets. And actually, he was showing a lot of stuff around for people during the polio. This is anti-vaccine from 1885. I don't know which one this was, but forced to be vaccinated, this idea. So he thinks it's critically important that companies do this.

What do you think about this? I think this is what leadership looks like. And when people say that forcing them to wear a mask is tyranny, I can't even imagine what they're going to label any sort of encouragement to get a vaccination. And here's the bottom line. If you're in Taiwan right now,

your kids can see their grandparents. You can meet someone and take them on a date. You can hug people. You can go to school. You can go to a concert. Why? Because Taiwan, by most people's standards on the right, instituted tyranny for weeks at a time such that they could get back to loving each other, making money, and get back to their normal lives. In the 1940s or 1941, when there was Pearl Harbor and we instituted the draft, a lot of people rightfully, understandably said, you know what? Just 25 years ago, my dad, my older brother came home maimed from a continent.

We have got nothing for that sacrifice. And you want me to go back there? Well, fuck you. That's tyranny. And you want me to go back there? Well, fuck you. That's tyranny. And you know what we did then? We didn't say, oh, let's put them on Fox and let's understand them. And it is tyranny. And we split up.

We put 5,000 men in prison. Yes, we did. Who avoided the draft. And we need more leadership around this. Vaccines, vaccines are, in my view, are a no-brainer. Yes, there's risk. There's risk when you leave your house to drive to the airport, but we decide to drive, we decide to take planes, and guess what? The odds here are so overwhelming on the side. It is amazing the kind of hysteria that gets together with the rest of us. It's crazy. You know, and also, but the whole COVID

thing has been one big crazy town. I'm sorry. Like the kind of stuff, I'm not going to say which relative, but someone who birthed me. I can't have them come to my birthday. My birthday's this week. And went out and did, I said, please do this, this, this in order to come down here and did none of it. And then was like, I'm coming down. I'm like, no, you're not. Like, I just, I can't, I don't understand. Like, I literally was like, that's enough.

You're crazy. And I'm not letting this happen. And the explanation was like, oh, it's not as bad as you think. I'm like, no, it is as bad as I think. Like, you don't listen to things. And so, it's a problematic situation because I think these anti-vaxxers, there's no common good in them, and there's no stopping the lunacy. There's no ability to stop lunacy, because average people are lunatics also at the same time.

Well, there's also a free-riding effect, and that is- Which is what? Well, I'm going to wait to take a vaccine, and no, no, but you go ahead. I understand that the world will be safer, but if there's a small amount of risk, and I've decided that I'm healthy and I'm young, and I'd rather just not get it, I'm going to free right off of your citizenship. You know what there should be? Just as we had posters that said, loose lips sink ships, and we made it heroic and patriotic, you know what we need?

We need a first in line movement. And you're not- You were talking about that, this idea of being first in line. And it's not about you. It's about citizenship. We got to stop the spread. We got to stop. We got to reduce.

We got to make sure the net that sweeps up our old and our vulnerable gets more and more porous and eventually frays and goes away. And the way you do that is you are first in line. And also, get your head out of your ass and do simple math. Get your head out of your ass. That is our message to you. Roll up your sleeve, get your head out of your ass. Yeah, because your head in your ass is not good when you're getting a vaccine. But do you know how many tens of millions of people vaccines have saved?

It's just striking. I don't even, I can't have this discussion anymore. So, first in line. You and I are first and second in line. We will do a whole media campaign that nobody cares about. Anyway, social media platforms have got to regulate information about vaccine. By the way, you think I'm mad at Facebook and I've been pushing for this and look what happened, FTC? If you don't deal with election misinformation and vaccine misinformation, I'm coming for you.

I'm coming for you hard. Thank you. That's what I say. All right. All right. Okay, now we have a listener mail presented by Yappa. You've got, you've got. I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman.

You've got mail. Hi, Karen, Scott. I am living a privileged life sitting at the mountain waiting for the ski lifts to open in the dark in my car. Apologies for any bad audio. I'm going to follow that up with an even more privileged question, which is, what do you think the effects of the M1 chip and Apple creating their own silicone for their Mac computers is going to have on the industry at large? The benchmarks so far have been way better than everybody expected. I'm wondering your thoughts. Thanks. Chips. Chips. I think it's a big deal.

I think it's an enormous deal. And I think not just them, but others, many others, Amazon and others are working on their own. And so obviously it's the end of the Intel empire. And companies that make these ARM chips, ARM including,

are going to be very powerful. And I just had an interview with Paul Jacobs of Qualcomm, who used to run Qualcomm, used to be the chairman. His father founded it and he ran it. And now he has his own company based around 5G. And I think everybody feels that this is going to be critically important for moving to these more robust systems than ever before. And so to wait for an Intel or something else, that's over pretty much. Scott?

Yeah, we talked about this, that Intel and AMD have to build chips that can scale such that they go across different platforms and different hardware. And the bottom line is, if you have the capital and the wherewithal, and my understanding is that this isn't truly vertical integration or manufacturing,

that they're building their chips on top of, is it ARM or ARM technology? ARM is a Taiwanese firm. But both Neil Ferguson and Mark Cuban, who we've had on our respective podcasts, have both said that chip manufacturing and IP is really, is a national security. That if you think about where China has not been able to catch us, they've been able to catch us around operations fulfillment to a lesser extent in software, but where the Western democracies still have real advantages around chips. And we do not want to lose that advantage. So, look, I think Apple is going vertical.

I think the more interesting one— Not just them, but Amazon, too. But the verticalization of these companies when they get this big creates more optimized. When Apple has its own search engine, it can optimize the search engine for its own business model. So I think this verticalization is going to continue to happen across the biggest companies and it creates a bigger moat. And basically a chip design for Apple optimizes for iOS and for their hardware. So I think it's powerful.

I'm more interested in kind of the national security implications. Yeah, absolutely. And I think it's important. And I think you'll see companies like Amazon and Apple take their own destiny on these things. There's always been this push-pull with Intel and others, but it's critically important,

this technology being designed within these companies for things, especially as you move to 5G and other things. They want to have control of these services. There's going to be all kinds of at-home things. You know, I know you don't think of it right now, but you're going to have, you know, right now we're talking to each other on a thing called Squadcast or Zoom and stuff like that. You're going to have presence, like real presence of people within all kinds of things that are going to happen or require them to be designed completely together. And so I'm going to be able to have Scott sitting here in this room, which I'm going to be disturbed by. But you're going to see lots and lots of that, where you can actually see people's facial expressions in more significant ways,

or sports games that you're going to be down on the floor. There's going to be so much that's going to be necessary for development. And these companies have the vested interest in doing so because they'll be rolling out these services too. Anyway, a reminder for the month of December, we're partnering with YAPA to get more listener mail questions. That was a good wonky one. Go to newyorkmag.com slash pivot to submit your questions for the Pivot podcast. Okay, Scott, one more quick break,

and we'll be back for your prediction when we get back. podcast. Okay, Scott, one more quick break, and we'll be back for your prediction when we get back. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. You know what's not easy? Marketing. And when you're starting your small business, while you're so focused on the day-to-day, the personnel, and the finances, marketing is the last thing on your mind. But if customers don't know about you, the rest of it doesn't really matter. Luckily, there's Constant Contact. Constant Contact's award-winning marketing platform can help your businesses stand out, stay top of mind, and see big results. Sell more, raise more, and build more genuine relationships with your audience

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Go to constantcontact.ca for your free trial. ConstantContact.ca Support for this podcast comes from Anthropic. You already know that AI is transforming the world around us, but lost in all the enthusiasm and excitement is a really important question. How can AI actually work for you? And where should you even start? Claude from Anthropic may be the answer. Claude is a next-generation AI assistant built to help you work more efficiently without sacrificing

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built Claude with an emphasis on safety. The leadership team founded the company with a commitment to an ethical approach that puts humanity first. To learn more, visit anthropic.com slash Claude. That's anthropic.com slash Claude. Okay, Scott, give us a good prediction. Give us a prediction. We already sort of talked about Airbnb stock, but we now know that it's already high already. It's already much higher than $42 billion. It's at $47 billion. Yeah, I think first trade tomorrow, it's triple digits.

And it's always dangerous to make those predictions, but I think Airbnb stock comes out at first trade as a triple digits. I also think that- When people listen to us, they'll know. They'll know if you're right or wrong. That's right. And 2021, Amazon tries to get out. They don't want to be the third dot on this line. I think they prophylactically do a spin. I think they prophylactically do a spin. And also the other prediction is that while Facebook stock was off 2% and everybody, including Mark Zuckerberg, wants to think that this is a bad thing. No, it's not. This will unlock shareholder value.

And their stock goes up from here. It might dip in the short term, but their stock goes up. Stock goes up. So he's a richer person. Oh, yeah. A hundred percent. Yeah. A hundred percent. He's not going to like this, though. up. So he's a richer person. Oh, yeah. A hundred percent. Yeah. A hundred percent.

He's not going to like this, though. I can tell. I'm sure he's really pissed today. He likes, he wants, you know who his hero was? Mussolini? I keep telling you this. Satan? Keep guessing.

I want a few more guesses. Who is the person he looks up to? Ayn Rand? No. I have no idea. Stephen Miller? Stephen Miller. I'm trying to think. No.

Stephen Miller was on the- Newman from Seinfeld? No. Who? Who's his hero? Augustus Caesar. Okay. Think about that.

I don't know enough about history. Give me the implications. Augustus Caesar was after Caesar. He's the one that sort of killed off Mark Antony and Cleopatra, if you saw the Elizabeth Taylor version. But really, in fact, he was the greatest. Even though Julius Caesar gets all the attention,

Augustus Caesar was the one that unified the empire and was the most powerful emperor of Rome. And he did all kinds of things, had a very controversial, but considered a really great emperor of all. And he did all kinds of things, had a very controversial, but considered a really great emperor of all he surveyed. Brought things together. This guy, I don't know.

This guy is the white walker of big tech. Winter is coming for this guy. No, it's not. He's going to be richer. He can go, he can winter anywhere he wants. Agreed. You know? You're right, he's going to be wealthier.

He's going to be wealthier. Yeah, I think there's, I think it'll be interesting. We'll see. You know what?'re right. He's going to be wealthy. He's going to be wealthy. Yeah, I think it'll be interesting. We'll see. You know what? Let me just say, I'm going to make a different prediction. They are going to, the government has bit off a lot here, and they're going to have to chew a lot because it's not going to be easy. It's not going to be easy. And these people, every single person I talk to in government is, I've never, these are government people, like Justice Department people, FTC people.

They're like, they're really powerful. Where in the world is Waldo? Specifically, anyone heard from Sheryl Sandberg? She's kept a pretty low profile around all this. No, not a word. There's a book coming out by Shira Frankel and Cecilia Kang. It's called The Ugly Truth. It's coming out in June.

It's all about Facebook. It's a lot of what happened here and everything. And I think it's called One Ugly Truth or The Ugly Truth. It's coming out in June. It's all about Facebook. It's a lot of what happened here and everything. And I think it's called One Ugly Truth or The Ugly Truth. No, One Ugly Truth. I wrote them. I said, I'd like a lot more ugly truths. Four ugly truths and a funeral of democracy. That's what I said the name of the book should be.

In any case, there's a lot coming out about them. And I think this case, one of the things that will be the most interesting is discovery. That's what I, that's really, but I think it's not going to, this is my prediction. Facebook is going to fight this hard. They are elbow poking, biting kind of people. And they're going to not go down easy. And the people on the board do not go down easy either.

The Peter Thiel's, the Mark Andreessen's. Yeah, I think if they were, I think this is really, I think this is getting a lot of momentum. I think a lot of very powerful people on both sides of the aisle are going to jump on this. The other thing is other tech companies hate them, the big ones too. That's the thing. There's not a person, even Google. Tim Cook is already out saying you deserve he's already waving his finger at them as you know he said it to me

I was shocked when he did that but I loved it but I think the Google people even the Google people find them distasteful and think they've

wrecked it for everybody so we will see there's not a company in Silicon Valley that doesn't have something bad to say about Facebook for sure okay that's the show as a reminder we love the listener mail questions and we're trying

something new. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit your questions for the podcast. The link is also in the show notes. Scott, read us out. Today's show was produced by Rebecca Sinanis. Ernie and Jot had engineered this episode. Erica Anderson is Pivot's executive producer. Thanks also to Hannah Rosen and Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify or Frankly wherever you listen to podcasts. Our generation has had really so few opportunities

to truly express our citizenship. Let's be first in line. Vaccines are a gift of humanity. They bring together our empathy, our science, our cooperation. Let's all be first in line. Support for this show is brought to you by Nissan Kicks. It's never too late to try new things, and it's never too late to reinvent yourself. The all-new reimagined Nissan Kicks is the

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