Pivot - Google Nest's Surveillance Secret, Bondi's Epstein Meltdown, Meta & YouTube in Court

Episode Date: February 13, 2026

Kara and Scott discuss AG Pam Bondi's disastrous testimony on the Epstein files and Big Tech's day in court as Meta and YouTube face trial for deliberately addicting young users. Then, the Nancy Guthrie disappearance case reveals that Google Nest stores “deleted" video, and an Anthropic researcher resigns, warning the “world is in peril.” Plus, Hong Kong media mogul and activist Jimmy Lai is sentenced to 20 years in prison, and Antitrust Chief Gail Slater resigns. Also, Scott predicts IPO trouble for OpenAI. Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠Pivot YouTube channel⁠⁠.Follow us on Instagram and Threads at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcastofficial⁠⁠.Follow us on Bluesky at ⁠⁠@pivotpod.bsky.social⁠⁠Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcast⁠⁠.Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for today's show comes from Atio, the AI CRM. If you've ever used a CRM and thought, why does this feel like a second job? Atio is worth a look. Atio is the AI CRM that builds itself. You connect your email and calendar and it pulls in every company, every contact, and every interaction. Already organized in one place. From there, it keeps itself up to date. It understands your customer calls, adapts to how your business works, and the AI agents take action in the background so you can focus on what matters.

If you need an intelligent CRM that scales and grows with your business from day one, that's Atio. You can go to atatio.com slash pivot, and you'll get 15% off your first year. That's A-T-T-I-O.com slash pivot. Yeah, if you want to wear your frilly underwear, I think I, oh, wait, was that a secret? I don't wear underwear. Daddy goes commando. Hi, everyone.

This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Calloway. Scott. We just did a great on with Kara Swisher about resist and unsubscribe, but I'd like an update. Do you have another podcast? I find that out. Do you?

You were quite substantive. Where are we right now? Give us a quick update. It lulled Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears to have come back today because Chelsea Handler, who reached out to me, posted something of all the things she was unsubscribing to. And just to give you an example of how much impact one person can have. I went on AI.

I went on to my site analytics. I think she just that one video she did on Instagram, that one post, is going to inspire six to seven thousand unique site visits, conversion of, 5%, that's 300 people unsubscribing, average of two platforms, 600 unsubscribes, average $200,000 times, excuse me, $120,000 times 10. So $1.2 million in market cap getting taken out of these companies because of one insta post. Right, exactly. And, you know, I'm going to see her tomorrow night, I think.

Tomorrow night, she's here in D.C. We should get them all to do things like that. Let's reach into the celebs we know and get them to do it. I'm going to bug them all. I like it. Thank you. Yeah, because if they do that and put even just one thing up, it matters. And it's an easy thing for a lot of them.

And they kind of like it. Well, what people don't realize about economic protests, the most famous one was a Montgomery Bus Strike. It wasn't the one cinematic moment. It was an organization of thousands of carpools over the course of a year. So it takes a while. But any individual who unsubscribes, Open AI right now is taking $10,000 out of the market valuation.

Which is great. And there's a substitute, the free, the free chat GPT. And also all kinds of other free services, Gemini, all the others. You don't have to pay for it necessarily. And by the way, you can use things for free. You're taking stuff from them, right, without paying them. Like, paying is the issue, is what you pay for. So just keep that in mind. Everyone's like, oh, now I can't use Google. I'm like, no, it's free. Well, just to give an example, how this unsubscribes to these recurring revenue tech platforms or tech companies, Team Mobile just had an earnings call. They were projected to add 992,000 new subscribers.

They added 962. So 30,000 fewer. Their stock decline 6% in after hour. So it cost $12 billion because they're unsubs or because 30,000 people didn't show up for subscription. So not only do these actions, do these actions. punch above their weight class in terms of economic impact, if you take, if Sam Altman grows his subscriptions, seven and a half percent versus eight percent month on month, he's not going to close his $850 billion round.

Yep, absolutely. So this is literally, this is the string. If you don't have the time of the energy to do some of the very other important work, whether it's protests or calling your congressman, you can have a massive impact by unsubscribing right now. Yeah, you can. Now, speaking, which is something the administration does care about. Attorney General Pambondi, we'll talk about more in a minute, was testifying in front of the Jan, crazy Jan, was testifying in front of Congress about Epstein on Wednesday.

She made it clear she preferred to be talking about other things. What did she zero in? Let's listen. The Dow is over $50,000. I don't know why you're laughing. You're a great stock trader, as I hear Raskin. The Dow is over $50,000 right now. The S&P had almost. 7,000 and the NASDAQ smashing records. Americans 401 s and retirement savings are booming. That's what we should be talking about. Well, she's not the Treasury Secretary,

but this is what shows what they care about. They really do, the fact that it was inappropriate to bring this up in here, given they were talking about victims, sexual abuse victims, but nonetheless, this is what floats their boat, is this money, right? And so let's also listen to a great idea one of our listeners sent in.

Every child of an elderly person did also go through all of their parents' subscriptions. I went through my mother's this weekend and was able to take $125 off of some bills by unsubscribing subscriptions. She didn't even know she had. That is a great idea. I do that with my mom all the time, and I'm trying very hard to take the New York Post off of her subscriptions. I'm going to leave it there. Two years after my mother died, I found that GEICO was still taking $220 out of her bank account a month for car insurance. Wow. Crazy. If you don't, and I've used this example before, when I unsubscribe from AT&T, went to Noble, I'm saving about $20 or $30 a month.

But in addition, I found out I had four accounts with AT&T for BlackBerrys and iPads, which have been in landfills for years because I never went on and unsubscribe them. And even though they know they're not getting a GPS signal from these things, and they could send you an email saying, hey, you know your pay. 70 bucks a month for something you haven't used in five years, you're going to save money. These committees are very good at figuring out a way to get you to subscribe and get you to forget that this money is coming out of your pocket every month. Yeah. You know, there's a couple services, and I don't have the names to show where your

subscriptions are and to unsubscribe. But this is a better way to do it. But then you can use those services to find them all over the place. You'd be surprised of what you're saying. I found an 18-T thing. I was from when Apple first had the iPhone, when they had Unlimited, if you remember. Anyway, it's a great thing to do. Keep going.

We're going to do more. Every little thing we can pull on, the administration cares about this issue. It's the only thing left is the Dow at this point, the fallout from the... Well, that's $50,000. She's the fucking Attorney General. She clearly knows nothing about economics. What is she talking about the... What is she talking about the Dow?

I know also, also calling a representative Raskin. Who does she think she is? She's in his house. She's in his house and calls him Raskin. I'm going to call you Galloway. when I use your house. Hey, Galloway. Anyway, the fallout from the Epstein files continues, speaking of which, as I mentioned, crazy attorney general Pam Bondi, who really needs to be medicated, testified before the House

Judiciary Committee on Wednesday, and things got heated. She soiled herself multiple times. Bondi sparred with Democrats, not just Democrats over Dio's handling of the Epstein files and refused to apologize to survivors. She wouldn't even look at them there. It turned out she's never talked to them. She also clashed with GOP Congressman Thomas Massey. Massey criticized Bonding in the DOJ for failing to redact victims' names while blacking out the names of businessmen, businessmen at Les Wexner.

Let's listen to the exchange. Within 40 minutes, Wexner's name was added back in. Within 40 minutes of me catching you red-handed. Red-hand. There was one redaction out of over 40-700. And we invited you in. This guy has tried. Trump derangement syndrome.

He needs to get, you're a failed politician. Really crazy, crazy craziness, I have to say. I just don't know what to say. She's, what is wrong with her? Like, speaking of derangement syndrome. Like, honestly, I don't know what she was doing up there. I know it's an audience of one, but he can't even find this impressive. It's grotesque.

Yeah, it really feels like we have. Wheels are coming off. I mean, it's, it's a shame because it's just so. It's a serious. issue. Weird and it's the Attorney General making a mockery of the institution and just no decorum. But I'm curious what you thought about the hearings, but the moment that I found really chilling was when I think it was the representative Jai Paul had some of the survivors stand up and asked how many of them have reached out to the DOJ to provide.

evidence or input. But all these survivors stood up. And it was clear they've reached out to the DOJ and the DOJ has ignored them. And you thought, let me get this. The Department of Justice investigating what is arguably may go down as the crime of the century to date. And survivors and people with direct knowledge about what happened or what didn't happen, they could also, quite frankly, they might exonerate some people. Right. Exactly. They don't want to talk to them. Right. And she wouldn't look at them. That was another moment. She wouldn't turn around. She wouldn't do it. This woman is insane. I just, I don't, she's a crazy one. She's like, it was so strange. And I know this audience of one they always do, but in this case, I was like, wow, you people are desperate and terrified

of what's coming next for you. You know, I thought Massey was effective. I thought Becca Ballant was effective. I thought Jaya Paul was effective, Raskin. I thought they all, one of the things, someone who works there said, how do you think it went? And I said, The only problem with this kind of thing was you lay down with pigs, the only one, the only people that like wrestling with pigs are the pigs, right, if you get in the mud with them. But I thought they relatively handle it well. It's just that the craziness is what gets attention and not the victims, right? It becomes a ridiculous circus.

And on some level, what was interesting is Fox didn't show it, right? They're obsessed with the Nancy Guthrie Kibnakening, which is a terrible thing too, but they're not even airing it. They don't want to show you the crazy. Like, and any normal person looking at this would be like, what, honey, you need some, you need some therapy, like stat kind of thing. And you know, and what happened to you? So I thought that was, it was a really interesting. This Epstein thing isn't going away, Pam. I'm sorry. It's just not now because it's so very clear that you didn't do your job. And neither did people before you, by the way. But guess what? It's a valid point. You're in the chair now. I don't really give a fuck. It's her DOJ.

It's her DOJ. And her boss. And her boss, her boss is mentioned in the Epstein files more times than Jesus is mentioned in the Bible or the term meth is mentioned in breaking bad over eight seasons. And I feel like every day, every time yesterday she claimed that, you know, the president had been the most quote unquote transparent president. When she uses the term transparent, I think somewhere there's a thesaurus filing for protective custody. Also, why are you laughing at me? It was just, oh. And also, it was so weird. It's so weird.

It's so culty. It's so strange. One of the things I do think is effective is a lot of these Congress people are going in and seeing unredacted versions, which are very upsetting. When they come out and they look like they've seen a ghost. I know. Cynthia Lomas, who is, I didn't know it was there now. Whoa. Whoa, folks.

Like, Cynthia Lomas, I'm so glad she's leaving politics. But I have to say even someone like that who literally puts in the least effort possible. Same thing. They're looking like, oh, my fucking God, you're kidding me here. I got to be honest. I didn't realize it was this bad. The more information you read about this, in terms of the number of victims, in terms of how many people were involved, how many opportunities there were to stop it. Yeah. Yeah. And it just gets, the web keeps getting deeper and uglier.

It is. And the lies. Like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik was on Capitol this week as well. He told the Senate committee he and his family had lunch on Epstein Island in 2012, but insisted he'd not have a relationship with him. Of course, this was, he had given this sort of ha-ha interview with one of these right-wing outfits where he said, I never. I was disgusted by him. And I said, we're never going to have no contact with him again.

And here's the thing. He took his kids. I took my four kids and their nannies and I got all the kids off the island. But this is the thing. It's not, it's not. it's usually not the infraction itself. It's the cover-up. If he had said...

Why do you see the first thing? But if he had just said right up front, he's a neighbor, he had powerful friends, I didn't do the diligence I should have. I went with me and my kids to his island once because it sounded like fun. Okay, poor judgment, but go along, get along. Instead of trying to wrap yourself in some sort of indignance that you immediately smell the rat, and you're lying, and you decided to... I mean, if he'd just come clean in the beginning, said like, yeah, it was a bad judgment,

took my kids to his island, had a lunch. I'd heard he was a big philanthropist, and who knows, maybe he was, okay, all right, bad judgment, move along. But again, it's the cover up. He had to take a laugh. He had to take a, I'm so pure lap. And that's because he's a moron. Let's, let's be clear, this guy's a moron.

And people are asking for resign. He really is a liar. He's a liar and a moron. And it doesn't mean he had to do anything. but he's a liar and a moron. One that's interesting under scrutiny is entertainment executive Casey Wasserman, Chapel Rowan, and other artists have cut ties

with Wasserman, as is their right, after the latest file showed he exchanged emails. Was Julene Maxwell and seemed to have some kind of relationship with her probably extramarral, who knows, Washington who serves as chairman of the L.A. Olympics organized and he appears to be holding onto that role. They're backing him. There were other names

floated to take his place. Now, let me be clear for people, I'm not gliding him out, but it was 2003 before any of this was known. He may have been able to pick it up. That's different. But this was well before the first conviction, the first sweetheart deal that Epstein did in Florida. So he's, even he's under scrutiny and people are cutting ties. And again, this is this artist right. They don't like the cut of his jib. That's perfectly fine. In his case, there's just, the blast zone of this is so far, right? It's really interesting.

But it's so indiscriminate. And again, I go to the following. If we had an institution we could trust, including the Department of Justice and the institutions that actually assembled these files, if they could go through it and go, okay, there are three circles here. There's people who either engaged in, provided infrastructure, or trafficked and facilitated crimes. We are going to release those names in the form of grand jury indictments.

And we're going to go after these people. That's the headline is here. That's what the Department of Justice isn't supposed to ruin people's careers. It's supposed to create an incentive system where people follow the law by prosecuting criminals and exonerating people who are not guilty. That is what they are there to do. And then the second circle, and this is a harder one, is okay, if a cabinet member has clearly lied under their testimony or under oath, should they release that information?

Didn't commit a crime. This is Howard Ludnik. Should the president, who has not so far been accused of a crime, if he's mentioned in this thing six thousand times, should we release that information? I think that is a really important point. The biggest circle, quite frankly, is I have seen on TikTok and on Instagram people talking about models how they talked about going to a museum with Jeffrey Epstein, and we should no longer have anything to do. They're trying to shame all these people, and it's like, you know what, folks, that's

just pure gossip. And unfortunately, the ringlight shaming of all these courageous, virtuous people when they were behind a keyboard and have much higher standards for other people than they do for themselves, that is distracting from what the Department of Justice is supposed to do, and that has put pedophiles in prison. Yeah. I would urge people to read. It was a really interesting, you know, Catherine Ruhmler, who's the legal head of Goldman. You know, she had a lot of emails there and very chummy kind of emails with Epstein going on for a while. I thought Bill Cohen did a great job talking about why she was in that relationship. And most but was, in fact, she was professional.

She's looking for work, right? And that's a whole different. Guy who knows rich guys who can send me AOM for wealth management. Yes, exactly. So I would urge people to read that. And again, one or two of them, and one or two places she, when he said, oh, it was only prostitution. And she goes, that's just this abusive, Jeffrey.

Like, she, she unfortunately kept saying, your gifts. There was a business relationship. I thought it was actually a really complex situation that made me think, God, if she was guy and she did like golf with him, she'd get off because she was a woman was vaguely flirty, kind of, she wasn't. Like, it was a great piece because I made me rethink. I was like, okay, like, not great judgment, right? Should have known better. Should have stopped talking to him after the first thing. But didn't business. It was just interesting. It made me think a lot. I recommend Bill Cohen's column in Puck, and I thought this was,

this is a area of expertise in finance, and I thought, okay, I got it. This is why there's, he was trying to explain why they haven't let her go, right? So I thought that was interesting. Anyway, speaking of power, six Republicans has joined Democrats in the House on them was going to vote for a resolution aimed at ending President Trump's tariffs on Canada. It's a symbolic gesture, even if it clears the Senate, Trump would veto it. But that didn't stop him from making threats. Trump posted on truth social that any Republican who votes against the terrorists would seriously suffer consequences come election time, and that includes primaries. I think he's losing the grip, as they say.

What do you think? Well, there's some new data that shows that about, so the initial notion was the tariffs would mostly be paid by either corporations, sort of a populist thing, or the importer, or excuse me, the exporter themselves. The country would absorb it or whoever was sending the products. It ends up, and there's finally analysis, 94% of the costs have been born. by U.S. consumers, and then the other 6% have been born by companies either deciding to take a bit of a hit or the importer themselves, or excuse me, the exporter themselves reducing their prices.

You have about 15% of the economy is imports. They thought the tariffs average around 20%, so that's 3%. Some managed to get out of it. So call it a 2% to the economy. But the problem is it's an unnecessary 2% hit to the economy. To be fair, it hasn't had the catastrophic effect. A lot of people thought it was going to have. But in a weird way, prices are higher. Well, yeah, it's just why? I feel it myself. And the shelves are emptier. It's weird. I never have noticed that before. Well, not that, but why reduce people's prosperity by 2% for no real reason? It doesn't cause growth. It doesn't cause innovation. All it's doing is urging or reconfiguring the supply chain around the United States, the EU is entering into an agreement with Mercosur. There are all kinds of

new trade zones being opened up such that people are not as reliant on the U.S. And a weird thing, though, is that if his tariffs are overturned by the Supreme Court or by the Congress, I actually think the markets will rip. So in a weird way, it could end up helping him if these things are turned back. I think the markets will scream if, these tariffs are found to be illegal. Yeah, well, we'll see. Although apparently he's got all these plans to put other kinds of fees in place to take their place that are, that he, then he'll have to go back to court and stop them for those. He's doubling down.

This is something he's talked about for years. So I don't know if he's going to back off so quickly and take the, take the victory here. He'd like to take the L, honestly. Yeah, I don't. I don't know. It's interesting. Yeah, no, they, you know, that lunatic Peter Navarro talks about him. Like, we have a whole bunch of things to happen if.

the Supreme Court overturns this. What's taking the Supreme Court so long, by the way? Anyway, we'll see what happens. I do think on the broader sense that there's lots more Republicans willing to push back because of their own political survival is not linked to Donald Trump as much anymore. The other thing is, it looks like they may lose control of the House. That's right. Another person is resigning it. Yeah. So, you know, they're one sick person away from having the Democrats in control. So it's a really interesting time. He doesn't have the power is slipping away, and that's why he's screaming Pam or this nonsense and stuff. So we'll see more of that, I think.

Okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break when we come back. Social media on trial, very important case. Support for this show comes from Quince. Style doesn't come from chasing new trends every season. Real style comes from slowly and intentionally cultivating a wardrobe filled with high-quality staples that will last. And if you're on the lookout for a perfect addition to your closet, look no further than Quince. find organic cotton sweaters, polos for every occasion, light jackets that will help keep you warm as the seasons change year after year. Not to mention their famous 100% Mongolian cashmere.

If there's anything better than cashmere, I'd love to hear it. Every quince item is built for everyday wear and made with ethically sourced materials from top factories. And by partnering with manufacturers directly, Quince keeps things affordable, so you're only paying for the quality clothing and not the brand markup. I have finally bought new Quince clothes, not just soft pants so that I can wear it when I do sports. I actually bought more of those, but I also bought a lovely cardigan that is so soft. I wear it all the time.

I fell asleep in it the other day. I bought a beautiful jacket, and I just love it. I have to say, this car that I'm wearing is so comfortable. It's really good looking. The fabric, everything else, it feels richer than it was, and the same thing with the coat. It's really good looking, and I really like wearing it. Again, comfortable, simple, and just lovely.

I really, really like it. Refresh your wardrobe with quince. Don't wait. quince.com slash pivot for free shipping on your orders and 365 day returns, now available in Canada, too. That's Q-U-I-N-C.com slash pivot, P-I-V-O-T, to get free shipping and 365-day returns. Quince.com slash pivot. Support for the show comes from NetSuite. We all hear all the time how AI can push businesses to new frontiers. If you're still not sure what that actually looks like, particularly for you and your company, then look no further than NetSuite by Oracle. NetSuite is a

top AI Cloud ERP, trusted by over 43,000 businesses. It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth. With all that connected data, your AI doesn't throw out its best guess. It actually knows what it's talking about. It can intelligently automate routine tasks, deliver actionable insights, and help make fast AI power decisions with confidence. Now, with NetSuite AI connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect to your actual business data. Plus, you can automate those tiresome manual processes. It's AI built into the system that runs your business,

affording you total flexibility. Get ahead of the game and put AI to work today with NetSuite. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, get the free business guide demystifying AI at netsuite.com slash pivot. The guide is free to you at netsuite.com slash pivot. Support for the show comes from Indeed. Hiring isn't just about finding someone willing to take the job. It's about connecting with someone who can move your business forward.

check out Indeed's sponsored jobs. Indeed sponsored jobs boosts your job post for quality candidates so you can reach people that can help your business thrive. People are finding quality hires on Indeed right now as we speak in the minute I've been talking to you, 27 hires were made on Indeed according to Indeed data worldwide. Join the 3.3 million employers worldwide that use Indeed to connect with quality talent that fits their knees. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Less stress, less time, more results now with Indeed sponsored jobs. And listeners to this show will get a $75-sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves at Indeed.com.com slash pivot. Just go to Indeed.com slash pivot right now and support our show by saying you heard about it Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash pivot terms and conditions apply. Hiring, do the right way with Indeed. Scott, we're back with more news. A landmark social media trial got underway this week with meta and YouTube accused of deliberately designing their platforms to addict young users. do you think. The lawsuit is a first of more than 1,500 similar cases to go to trial. This is something that's been building for a long time. The plaintiff's lawyer is arguing that his client, a 20-year-old woman, got hooked on these apps as a kid because they were like digital casinos delivering dopamine

heads. Instagram head, Adam Isari, testified on Wednesday that he doesn't think users can be, quote, clinically addicted to the app. Adam Asari, it is not a doctor, just so you know. I can't believe he said that. It was kind of a mistake on his part, and also he's wrong. Meanwhile, YouTube is arguing it's not social media. It's an entertainment platform like Netflix, and it's not addictive. That is also not true. The jury, anyone who's kids knows that. It's very different from Netflix. I mean, it's become more like Netflix recently, but it's also an addictive situation. The jury trial is expected the last six to eight weeks with Mark Zuckerberg and YouTube's Neil Moen expected to testify. This is a really important trial. The big names are coming out and talking about an issue you and I have talked about for years. What are the actual effects? and who is responsible for creating an addictive product. And I'm sorry, Adam, I'm not a doctor either, but any fool will tell you, it's anyone not fool, any person will tell you it's addictive.

Anyone who uses it. And you design, and there's so much proof that you've designed it like a casino or a cigarette or whatever it happens to be. Thoughts? Well, imagine you're 14 and someone, you go into your room, and if you were like me, your mom wasn't home until 6 or 7 p.m. And you're home alone.

Gilligan's Island. And yeah, it was bugs money and Gilligan's Island and I Dream a Jeannie for me, but what if in the corner there was a casino? What if there was an arcade? What if there was horn? What if there was unlimited music? What if there, and then you say, no, no, no, study.

What if there was the high school cafeteria where I could say something mean about someone else or someone could say something mean about me and all I could think about the rest of the day and night was what they were saying about me? the high school cafeteria never left. And it ends up that about 6% of teenagers are clinically addicted or meet the clinical definition

of addicted to either drugs or alcohol. But under those same standards, 24% are addicted to social media. And just some data, the average American teen spends 4.8 hours a day using social media. 16% of teens are 1 and 6, use TikTok almost constantly, 15% for YouTube, 13%, 13% for SNAP, 12% for Instagram,

and roughly half of all teens report feeling addicted to social media. And you say, well, okay, fine, what's the impact? Teens who are in the highest use group expressed two times more suicidal intent or self-harm than those in the lowest use group. And the highest use group also expressed poor body image at three times more

than the lowest use group. And it typically takes a society, or it takes America 20 to 30, 30 years to respond to really negative external. It took us 30 years with tobacco, took us 20 years with opiates. And if you think about social going on mobile in 2012, 20 years is probably the right number.

I think when I'm, me parents always ask me, what should I do with my kids? And I say, how old are your kids? And if they say three or five, I'm like, we'll have it figured out by then. Because the data here is so overwhelming. And we're up against intransigence and people trying to delay and obfuscate

similar to those tobacco executives, and they have more money, and they're more skilled this time. But eventually the tide, the tsunami of parental concern here, you know, understandable parental concern, is washing over all this bullshit where, so I think in, I would say, I mean, you have entire countries now age-gating, look at what Australia is doing. I think another two to three years, I'm hopeful the landscape's going to be much different for children. And the remedies would be warning sign. There's lots of remedies.

like with cigarettes. Age gating. Age gating, warning signals, the checking of ages, legal liability. The age checking is harder. Whatever other substance company and manufacturers, a media company is subject to.

Yeah, they've got to be kidding. You know, there's so much, they have so many emails of them talking about this. That's the problem. For Adam is sorry to say this. He doesn't think it's clinically addictive. Come on, Adam. Come on.

We all think it is. The problem is every adult. knows this in their bones, right? Because we're addicted. We're addicted. Like we are. It's a problem. You cannot put it down.

And it is different from television. It is very different. Television, listen, Gilden's Island's addictive enough. I can't believe I watched all that shit. But you can walk away from it in a way. You cannot walk away from this. It's almost, I find myself, I have to throw the phone across the room, right? Sometimes.

I'm like, put it down. You know, Amanda, same thing. We just, it's really interesting. And sometimes I think about it. I'm like, I like news, and I'm mostly reading news, but I don't stop. That's the difference. I put down magazines. I put down newspapers, and I love news.

So this is, all this stuff as it gets out, as you see the emails inside the company talking about it, and especially early on, they knew just what they were doing. And perhaps they weren't meaning to be malevolent at the beginning, but it's malevolent for many young people, and the impact is huge. And then they just keep doubling down with AI relationships and synthetic relationships and everything else. This is, the time has come around at last for these companies. We'll see how well, how this trial does.

But it's going to just uncover more and more about what they knew, very much like the cigarette companies. When you have hundreds of billions of dollars in shareholder value, trillions of dollars in shareholder value, 100 billions of revenue, millions of some of the brightest people in the world, and trillions of data points, all trying, all aiming towards one thing. How do we get? people to spend one more second every day on social and less time somewhere else,

whether it's sports, friends, studying, sleep, and they're winning. And young people, especially young men, who have this tremendous fall on their brains where they're constantly dope-a-hungary, they're up against an indomitable foe. And then the other, it's like sugar. It's the same thing. And then there's two or three, but your kid can take a 10-pound bag of sugar into his bedroom with them. The other two things. Well, that's your kid. My kid could, but go ahead. The other two things, it is a cumulative effect that I think have really hurt our youth, or one, I do think parents have some culpability here. And that is, we have decided that our job is to clear out all borders and obstacles for our kids. We engage in concierge and bulldozer parenting. And by the time the

kid gets to college, he or she has never had a C or a disappointment. And we've created this Princess and P generation with good intentions. We thought we were doing our kids a good thing. And then something that doesn't get talked a lot about, but I absolutely think is adding up to a generation that is at a disadvantage, and that is if you are 21, since the age of 10, the person you are supposed to look up

to most in the world is Donald Trump. So performative virality, coarseness and cruelty, online scams, crypto, doubling down on lies. This has been the role model as kids' brains are being wired during puberty. And no matter who is president or what you think of the office, president is the person that millions of young Americans look to as the ultimate of success in American values. So what are we done? We've raised a generation of kids who are dope-a-hungary and their primary role model, maybe with a close second, the richest man in the world.

It's the greatest internet troll of all time. Are exhibiting values that are very, I mean, and what do you know? These 21-year-olds are not, it's shocking what good people they are, given what they have to deal with. I would agree. I think they do resist more than you think.

And actually, there are a lot of parents. One of the things I spent a lot of time doing with my kids, whenever, like, can you go get this from me? Can you talk to that person if they wanted something? I'm like, you need to do it. Like, you figure it out has became one of my lines with my kids, my older kids. You figure it out. I do it with my younger kids now with Saul.

I'm like, you figure it out. I don't know. I know, but you can do it yourself. And so that's the best piece of advice you can give to a kid. I've started giving my kid pounds when he gets good grades. Is that wrong? I slip him a 20 pound. I slip him a note when he gets an A on a test.

No, do not do that. Well, totally. No, no. Anyway. That's called capitalism. Okay. You get a lot of money. Okay.

All right. Whatever you want to do there, Scott. We should write competing parenting books. In the same genre about surveillance, as you know, that's another thing I go crazy about. Investors in the Nancy Guthrie abduction case have recovered footage from the Nest doorbell, nest is owned by Google. It was initially thought to have no video because there was no active subscription. When you sign up, for people who don't know, for Nest or any of these things, you can buy a subscription. If you don't, they say they don't keep the video.

as it turns out they do. The incident shows that Ness uploads video to Google's cloud before you decide to keep it with a paid plan so it can linger after it says it's been deleted. It's supposed to be deleted. I'm glad they got these pictures of this guy at the same time. This is an edge case.

They're keeping your video, which everyone thought they were doing, and they said they weren't. The FBI working with Google engineers took 10 days to recover the footage from Guthrie's camera. The companies need to spell out in plain English, how long deleted footage actually remains on their servers. And by the way, they're also getting incredible pushback from the ring ad for the Super Bowl,

which is like, we're watching everybody, but only for your dogs. And there's been a million memes about only for people we need to take away. Like the surveillance of these kind of things and the ease of which they are hacked, by the way, not just taken off the door like this terrible person did, but hacked into or quite something. A lot of people are getting them hardwired into their house so they can't do that. And also so that they can't be taken via wireless. There's a lot of wireless activity here. But there are ways to, a lot of these things are open season on your home.

When I was speaking of my son, my kids, Alex, took, I had one of them up at one of our houses. When we bought it, it was there, one of these Amazon or echoes or whatever. He took them all out. He took one day I came back and everything was gone. And I was like, why? And he goes, because they can watch us. And I was like, don't be paranoid. He goes, I'm not.

And he was right. So, anyway. I think we're, I think we have a bit of a different view on this in the sense that, I think technology, I think we gave up our privacy a long time ago. Yes, Scott McNeely. We did. What I want to see, I remember Scott? Yeah, he said that.

Privacy doesn't get used to it. If you are in London or New York, you can't go more than, I think, it's 30 feet outside without a camera. And the reason they did that was they implemented massive. They have like a security headquarters because of 9-11. And I actually, what I think you need, though, is really, really well thought out laws and institutions that say, we're not going to go fishing. Unless it's a felony crime, we don't investigate it. In other words, people have the right.

You said something I've thought about a lot, and that is people have the right to have secrets. And if you want to go into a store, if you're, I don't know, you should be able to do what you want. If you murder somebody, then quite frankly, and there are enough evidence to say that you are a reasonable person of interest, then we are going to utilize cameras, data, video footage. I agree with you. I just think you buy this product and it says it isn't keeping it if you don't pay for. it, then it's not keeping it. Like, I'm sorry, that's just the deal.

That's just the deal when you buy. I have several of these, and I've taken most of them off my house, but they say, and I pay a lot of attention, we, if you don't pay, this stuff is deleted. This is deleted. If it says it's deleted, it should be deleted. That's all. It's just the deal you make with them. And so I don't think they should keep it if it's supposed to be deleted.

Same thing with Echo. It shouldn't be listening if it says it's not listening, right? That's which, if you want it to listen, you can tell it. That's in your home. I'm talking about this. Outside, I think we've lost that battle. Their cameras are everywhere. And we're talking about London.

Monacoarlow is really wired. So is the United States of America. And that's a good thing when it comes to crime. But it's a very bad thing when it comes inside of your house. Because, Scott, I know, if you want to wear your frilly underwear, I think I, oh, wait, was that a secret? I back people's privacy in their homes. Daddy goes, commando.

Big Ed and the twins want to be. be free. But I think it's, in this case, it was good to be able to get the picture of this guy. At the same time, she didn't, the intent wasn't to. So plain English of what you're doing and how long it remains, and then it should tell you when it's deleted and permanently deleted. If they say permanently deleted, it needs to be deleted. That's, I feel like that's good. At some point, you should be able to have, you know, I have cameras around my house, you can see almost everything. I know, I try to sneak in all the time. If someone were to, to break in, but I think what you want is, like, this is the hack that I think is coming.

Somebody hacks into Uber. With your Uber, if you use Uber a lot, I think you can find out when someone is, with a thin layer of AI on top of your Uber trips. They'll be able to know if you just terminated a pregnancy. Or if you're a Russian spy, why is this person continually going to the Russian embassy? Why is this person, are you having affairs with same sex? A thin layer of AI on top of your ride history, when and where you are going places, it would be very easy to say, okay, this person is clearly suffering from diabetes. This is why they keep going to this type of clinic.

This person is clearly engaged in a love affair with this dude at this address. This person is clearly. Swisher is constantly going to Amtrak. But go ahead. This person is clearly cooperating with the CIA as evidenced by the fact they keep going to this one address that is a COVID. They could find out that hack, folks, this is the trade we all make. And we all talk a big game.

Anyone who talks about privacy is typically over the age of 50 and in Brussels or D.C. We consistently trade our privacy for utility. Yep. We do. And what I want is massively, okay, unless it's a felony, maybe even more than that, it's a felony that has a threat of violence. And there's really strong evidence against one person. All that shit is off limits.

No one can use it. All I'm saying is if they say it's off, it needs to be off. Or at least give you the power to delete it. It's like if you buy, like, I don't know, organic apple. It's not organic. You can't do that. Yeah, that's fair. It's the same thing.

You're selling a product. You say what it is. Stay with what you say. But at the same time, I love the fact, okay, when there's a crime, crime is hitting, despite all the scariness and everyone's saying whether it's, whether they're saying it's, you know, Eric Adams or Miramom Dani or it's Bedlam in the streets, crime. The number of shootings in New York last year, I think hit it like an all-time low.

Violence is going, and crime, violent crime has consistently gone down the last several decades. Is it because we're a better people? I don't think so. It's because if you commit crimes now, everyone has seen those law and order SUVs that if you go into a 7-Eleven in the middle of fucking nowhere and shoot the clerk, ATMs have cameras. So was there any ATMs outside? Then they check the footage on the ATM.

I don't like a surveillance state. I like a state. I like a place where if a really strong lawyers where they can, consistently say, I get you think a crime is committed here. There's not enough evidence. You do not have access to this video. Right. I agree. Oh, there's evidence that you're planning a terrorist attack? Sorry, boss. We're violating your privacy rights in every ring light, every Uber ride. Well, they're also, but we have due process. We still, I still think we have a Duke process. We can't have the wrong people getting a

whole of this stuff. Anyway, I hope they find Nancy Guthrie. And I hope it helps that they had these, but it brings up a big issue about surveillance, and we should pay attention to it. Anyway, let's go in a quick break. We come back. We'll talk about the latest in AI news. There's a lot of it. Support for the show comes from CoreWeave.

AI isn't just a new tool. It encompasses so much more. It's spurring a revolution across all industries and reshaping itself to become a big part of our future together. CoreWeave is at the center, powering some of the biggest names in AI. As the essential cloud for AI, CoreWeve provides an AI platform that combines next generation infrastructure, intelligent tools, and expert support.

It's powering the world's most complex AI workloads, faster and more efficiently. For medical research and diagnosis, education from complex visual effects from movies to breakthroughs and science and technology. If it's AI, Corweave is uniquely ready to power it with purpose-build tech. The big idea is the wild visions and what-ifs and why not. Coreweave is working to build what's never been built before. Coreweave is the essential cloud for AI, ready for anything, ready for AI. To learn more about how CoreWeave powers the world's best AI, go to coreweave.com slash ready for anything. Support for Pivot comes from Anthropic.

There are bumps in the road, the ones you can just throw a Band-Aid on and be done with it, and then there are the bigger problems. The ones where you really have to stop and think through. The ones, when you finally crack it, it feels unbelievable. And for those problems, you're going to need a partner to help you understand where you're at, where you're going, and how you're getting there. Claude from Anthropic is that partner. Claude is the AI for minds that don't stop at good enough. It's a collaborator that actually understands your entire workflow and thinks with you, whether you're debugging code at midnight or strategizing your next business move.

Claude extends your thinking to tackle the problems that matter. Plus, Claude's research capabilities go deeper than basic web search. It can use comprehensive, reliable analysis with proper citations, turning hours of research in two minutes. Ready to tackle bigger problems? Start with Claude today at clod.a.ai slash pivot. That's clod.AI slash pivot. And check out Claude Pro, which includes access to all the features mentioned in today's episode,

Claude. a.ai slash pivot. Scott, we're back with more news. Time for rapid fire of AI news. First up, Anthropic is in the final stages of raising $20 billion in new capital at a valuation of $350 billion. A valuation. Also at Anthropic, a researcher submitted a resignation letter saying the world is in peril,

employees constantly face pressures to set aside what matters most. That researcher is going off to write poetry, by the way, which should trouble you. Over at XAI, Elon Musk has lost two co-founders, Jimmy Ba and Tony Wu, both announced her departure as a big restructuring over there, too, as he's brought it into SpaceX. The company at OpenAI, the company is fired an executive actually opposed plans for an AI erotica feature in chat, GPT, citing sexual discrimination. We don't actually know what happened here. Anthropic raised the funding, raised twice the funding initially sought based on investor demand.

So thoughts on any of these stories, lots of different, lots of stuff happening around AI again. Yeah, why people get fired or why they say they were fired. I don't know. I haven't sorted through that. What I think has already happened, whether it's reflected in the valuations or not, I think Anthropic is now worth more than Open AI. I think Open AI. What was their valuation?

800 billion? Well, I think they're trying to close around at 850. Yeah, 850. But that one VC who kind of, if there was a moment where the balloon was burst, if you will, the bubble was burst. It was when that VC had Sam Altman on his podcast and said, you've made a trillion dollars in spending commitments on a company with 20 billion in revenue. How are you going to do that?

And he got very defensive about it. And they've got consumer, Anthropics gone, Enterprise. they haven't made the kind of crazy commitments. I think there's been the kind of the mother of all industrial pivots. I think now, if you will, Avis is now hurts. I think Anthropic is now worth more or will be soon than OpenAI. They are not making money. Yeah, but they're stronger in the enterprise.

Anyways, none of this makes any sense in terms of a multiple on revenues, but I think Open AI is in real. real, I don't know, crisis is the wrong word. And XAI? There's a lot of arguments over on X about that they have now do not have me. His big thing was I have the best AI researchers. Now he does not, right, from what most people, intelligent people are saying about it. But he always does this.

He always goes in and shakes the tree and then shakes the tree again. That's his, that's his MO, I guess. They're a distant, left or fourth or something like that. Well, these guys are all, here's a symbol of how easy it is and how difficult or how vulnerable they are. So here are some. Dario and Daniela Emote, we're at OpenAI, now at Anthropic. Ilya Sitskiver, Open AI, now at Safe Superintelligence. Aravind Shrinivaz, Open AI, now at perplexity.

Miramaradi, Open AI, now at Thinking Machines. Arthur Mench was at Google, now at Mistral AI. You got all the names. It's the brightest minds here are, supposedly, I used to work with a lot of luxury brands, and they said the biggest problem they were having in China is that at the biggest malls, if Prada was how to store across the street from Botega Veneta, if the manager of that Prada didn't have people show up, he could go across the street during the lunch hour to the lunch court

and offer someone $11 an hour from the Botega store who was making 10, and they wouldn't even go back after their lunch break. they would go over and work at. It was just so easy to pick off people by offering them a dollar more per hour. And it feels so many of these people who have, you know, fairly or unfairly

have established themselves as some of the few minds that really understand this stuff. The amount of money and temptation to go do their own thing or join another firm is, I mean, supposedly, wasn't there reports that Zuckerberg was paying

some people $100 or $300 million? And then he wasn't. I mean, it just feels like it's total, I don't know, bedlam right now. Right. They all think they're going to be the one, right? I'm going to be the final one standing and I'm going to own the world, essentially, which is a bet. It's a bet, right?

I think one of the things that continues to plague these companies are these researchers who are like, we're fucked everybody. Like, they come out and almost, you know, like they're sort of like, it's going to kill us. And so I think a lot of people are much more concerned. about this than you know. I think, but quite frankly, I think a lot of it is people backfilling the reason why they're living with,

leaving with morality sometimes or some sort of victimhood. If you look at, just to go back to musical chairs here, if you look at XAI, the company lost its second co-founder in just two days. And that means that half of XAI's founding team, six of the 12, have left the company in less than three years of existence.

And Mus said, you know, We've reorganized XAI to improve the speed of execution, which required parting some ways with some people. And I think for some of these founders, there's legal risk to staying at XAI. The EU is currently investigating the company for its creation of non-consensual sexual deepfakes based on real people, including children. So this really is the Wild West. This is, you know, I don't know. it's so difficult to even keep track of, you know, who ends up where and why. It's like as if science people went crazy, right?

I do think the warnings are getting really interesting. They're like, I wish someone would just explain what we're in peril. How? How are we in peril? Yeah, how does that manifest? What does that mean? Hey? Hey.

Like, it's like the people who knew that we were about, you know, in those movies where a bunch of people know we're about to get hit by a, like a comet or something, and they're not telling us, they're like, I would, I would, I'm your family, why? Is it Arnold Schwarzenegger showing up at your door wearing Oakley's and a lot of leather? Like, what is it? What is happening?

What does it look like here? What does it mean? Because the employment destruction that was supposed to be already well underway, I would argue it's not happening yet. I don't know, but why would someone say they're in peril, we're in peril and set aside what matters most, which is safety, presumably. And then they go off and write poetry.

I would like some more information if you don't mind. If you're going to do that, you need to tell me. Yeah, exactly. Why are we in peril? Why are we in peril? Save us from what? Tell me, tell us. I know there's these legal things, but if it's so terrifying,

you need to, like, step out and, like, tell us, tell us what it is. And bring proof, too, by the way. We'd love to know when the comet's going to hit us. In any case. But the VP of Product Policy at OpenAI was fired. after she voiced opposition to OpenAI's upcoming erotica features for adult users. Yeah. She did flag that enabling erotica would likely strengthen feelings that users already have for the chatbot.

Based on a recent report released by OpenAI, out of ChatGPD's 800 million weekly users, 1.2 million users are prioritizing talking to ChatGPT over their family, friends, school, or work. That's less not what I thought. roughly 560K are experiencing psychosis or mania. This is shitty research as a ratio by 800 million people. Is that normal or not normal? And about 1.2 million people discuss suicide with chat GPT. Again, what I want to see is someone to say,

all right, is that just a function of people who are depressed thinking they can talk to chat GPT, just as they would talk to a friend or a therapist? Or is it something about talking to chat GPT insights, suicidal ideation or psychosis? The last ladder. You know, interesting, I just did an interview with Sherry Terple for my doc series, and she's been setting it for years, and she's like, I've never seen anything like it now.

It was before on the sidelines and in the darker places or people had, you know, it was a small group of people. She goes, it's really on mainstream in a way. I would like the information from these people. Would you come out and bring a bag and bring it to me or Scott or something like that? Anyway, what, I mean, I don't bring it to you. Bring it to Kara Swisher. On a separate, no, speaking of sort of sort of.

normal journalism and getting information out. One of the most depressing thing is Hong Kong media mogul and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai was sentenced as we did 20 years in prison after we found guilty in a sedition and collusion with foreign forces. It's the longest sentence ever handed down under Beijing. It's a death sentence. Eli's children are saying a potential visit by President Trump China April could be crucial in securing the release of their 78-year-old father. This is something Trump should do. Back in December, Trump said he asked President G to consider releasing Lai. But on the campaign trail in 2024, he was a lot more confident saying 100% I'll get him out. It'll be easy to get out. He's not so easy to get out. Let's not forget the real surveillance

economy, the real control economy. We've talked about these issues around control and the uses of AI for badness. China wins the boats everywhere. And they go after this guy who's a really important figure in this area. And so if President Trump can do anything, please do it. If anyone can do anything, but Jimmy Lott is a hero. And what's happened to him is, as you say, at death sense. Look, I go to the economics. When you start imprisoning journalists, whether it was Turkey in 2012, Soviet Union at the turn of the century, or China putting the, you know, taking a very hard-fisted approach to Hong Kong in 2021 as kind of best epitomized by Timeli being imprisoned, distinct of the morality of it, distinct of the importance of plays in a society.

the nation gets poorer and angrier. It is literally a cunard, a canary in the coal mine saying, we are about to send a chill across some of the most talented people and scrutiny about what can be said about companies that hurts the economy. The nations get poorer and angrier. And it's literally a symbol of when an economy is about to move to an authoritarian state,

which is really bad for innovation, for attracting outside capital. When you're thinking about investing, in Turkey and all of a sudden they start locking up journalists. Does that think, does that, does that, if you're Google, you think, yeah, I'm going to start, I'm going to open an office in, I'm going to open an office in Istanbul,

or you think, you know, I'm going to wait and see if they sort that out. If you're one of the brightest PhDs in the world and you're doing research on authoritarian governments, you're doing research on innovation, and you're worried that your research might contradict something that the leadership is espousing to, to, do you go teach at those universities? No, you go somewhere else. So this is, like, China is not, you know, is not a model for, but having said that, I was just supposed to be on with Don Lemon who got

arrested. Yeah, exactly. Why are they arresting Don Lemon? Like, give me a break. They shouldn't be arresting any journalist like this. It's just ridiculous. I would agree. Anyway, Jimmy Lai, let's get him out. Let's get him out. He's a hero. I'm going to finish up with something that just happened, Gail Slater, who had hugely respected lawyer, antitrust lawyer, who was running antitrust of DOJ just announced she's stepping down. It follows the resignation of a guy named Mark Hammer, who was one of her top deputies. She's had clashes with Pam Bondi over the handling antitrust investigations. I've heard she was in a real bind over the Paramount thing. They're trying to, like, shove through things that are friendly to the Trump administration,

and she just can't do it. She can't do it during an 11 months on the job. She found herself in this bind caught between the Trump administrations. She was close to J.D. Vance. This is a very respected and well-regarded antitrust version. This should be an enormous signal

that Gail Slater is stepping down. I had hoped to talk to her, but everyone had told me they didn't know what she was going to do about the Netflix Paramount thing. You cannot be against the Netflix thing if you're not against the Paramount thing. I'm sorry.

And of course, she's being, you know, she's been putting a bind all over the place, a talented and well-regarded person has put into a bind, and so she's stepping down. I just don't know they'll put in some idiot, like a Brandon Carr type of person who will just do what they say, but it really brings it down rather significantly, even making Del Reykiva works for Paramount actually now, very well-regarded. Like, they're going to have to put in it in a village fucking idiot in the Pambondi mode. So not a good sign. Not a good sign.

Anyway, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. At Medcan, we know that life's greatest moments are built on a foundation of good health, from the big milestones to the quiet winds. That's why our annual health assessment offers a physician-led, full-body checkup that provides a clear picture of your health today and may uncover early signs of conditions like heart disease and cancer. The healthier you means more moments to cherish.

Take control of your well-being and book an assessment today. Medcan, live well for life. Visit medcan.com slash moments to get started. The Hyundai-Alantra hybrid inspires a special type of love, the type that makes you slow down and enjoy the ride. With best-in-class fuel efficiency and a best-in-class new car warranty, it's made for the long run, wherever the road takes you next. Because some relationships are built to go the distance.

It's that Hyundai-A-Lontra type of love. Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. I think that what was supposed to be the most anticipated IPO, maybe with the exception of kind of SpaceX-A-I Tesla, whatever. Tesla's not in there yet. Probably the most anticipated was the IPO of OpenAI in 2026, sometime this year, early 27.

I don't think that's going to happen. Oh. I think that, yeah, I think this company is now. has gone into full, I don't call it panic mode, but it feels as if the momentum has a habit of creating more momentum, and I think the momentum is really negative around this company. What happens that?

Where does it go? What does it do? Well, I think they'll substantially scale back there. I mean, have you already seen the war, have you ever seen Jensen Huang and Sam Altman, who were, you know, bud buddies are already shipposting each other? Right. claiming that the $100 billion agreement was a framework and they're actually not going to,

the $100 billion investment. May I just say, you said that. Well, that was ridiculous. These circular deals, I'll give you $100 billion. I'll invests $100 billion if you invests $100 billion on our chips. And now, quote, quote, Jensen's backtracking and saying, well, it was just a framework. They couldn't justify it. Invidia stock has gone down because people are worried about exposure to Open AI.

So what does Open AI do? They start shipposting Navidia and saying, no, it's because they're, chips didn't live up to our expectations, when the biggest player in the space, Jensen Huang, and kind of the young gun, Open AI, starts shipposting each other, and they back out of this $100 billion investment framework, that is a really bad sign. Yeah, he kept using, what was the word? We're honored to be invited. What was he saying? It was so funny. Yeah, but they're both going on background now and blaming each other. Oh, totally, utterly. Like, can I just give people a lesson? When you hear, source is close to the situation. If there were any closer to either of them, they'd be on the other

side of them. That's them, right? So I think the momentum, the worm is turned, and it's not that Open AI is an unbelievable company that could go public at like a $50 billion market capitalization, but the problem is when you sell some investors in at $250, $450, and then if he's able to close this round at $8.50, they're not willing to go public or let you have a liquidity event that cuts there. What happens in an IPO, say he went public at $300 billion. next year and said, okay, the market isn't what we thought. Unless there's a couple of years where the latest round of investors get so fatigued, they're willing to take a 60% haircut, all of your shares, the last round of investment has a preference, meaning they're the first

money out. So the 50 or 100 billion going in at 850 doesn't want to give up their liquidity preference and let them go public if they're going public at less than 850, which I think they would. So your last round of investors become a veto block for going public unless you you're going to go public at a valuation greater than $8.50. So what do they do? You haven't answered my question. They'll dramatically, in my opinion, they'll dramatically scale back their capital, their cap-X, and they'll end up with a much smaller, much less ambitious, amazing company that's only worth 100 or 200 billion. It's only one of the 30 most valuable companies in America, not the

Get bought, whatever. Well, that means everyone else will get collapsed, right? Or not? I think the whole, my opinion, if you look at, and I look at weird signals, the percentage of ads at the Super Bowl, Right? Yeah, I know. Yeah, you said that. If you look at all this, I think there's a ton of anecdotal evidence showing that while AI may live up to its potential, the market cap of the biggest players this year is about to throw up. Which isn't to say that similar in 2000, when the market cap of Amazon went down 95 percent, it's still not going to be an unbelievable company. But I think we're about to see a dramatic recalibration in the markets, which includes open AI's IPO plans, getting queered.

Now, who's going to take their place? And this is the prediction. The most impressive numbers, hands down, that no one I wasn't expecting, Calci. Cali's year on year. Cali and not polly market, right? Well, Cali is actually of the two, the clean, well-lit space of this marketplace, right? It's a little, Calci is CFTC regulated. It's also in the U.S.

It's peer-to-peer trading. It's federally regulated. I have some, I don't have moral clarity around these issues because I do think they tap into the dopa of a young, more risk aggressive male brain, but just let me go straight to the numbers here. In 26, in this Super Bowl, right, over a billion dollars in trading volume on CalShe, that's up 2,700 percent. It was up 28 fold this year. And you know who's getting absolutely the shick-ticked out of them is flutter, as the gambling,

sites. They're killing these guys. The sports market accounted for about 90% of Cali's activity this month, and it's having incredible impact on traditional gambling and sports book. Analysts have noted that Calci's rise coincides with the underperformance in major sportsbook, stock prices, draft kings, flutter as traders shift some activity towards prediction markets. And with a venue that's easy to access nationwide, which Cali is, even in states without legal sports betting. The firm is attracting betters who might otherwise have used traditional sports books. So this is, this company, and my prediction is the following. Open AI, way to the downside, doesn't get public. CalShe is about, is going to be, in my opinion, the kind of IPO we're all

trying to get into in Q2 of Q3 of this year. Cal sheet is. All right. Well, that's interesting. You've been sounding this alarm for these companies. Interesting. Fascinate. That's a big one. Scott, that's a big one. We'll say, right? That's a big one. Yeah. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind.

Go to nymag.com slash pivot to put a question for the show. Or call 85551 Pivot. Elsewhere in the Kara and Scott Universe, this week on Prof. G. Markets, Scott spoke with Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy and economics at Cornell University to discuss why he thinks economics, domestic politics, and geopolitics are stuck in a doom loop. Doomlope. Let's listen to a clip. Globalization used to be seen as a positive sum game

where countries could benefit mutually from trade, and that would be an offset to what is intrinsically the zero-sum game of geopolitics, where one country can gain influence only at the expense of another. But now even globalization has become seen as a zero-sum game, so it isn't offsetting the zero-sum game of geopolitics, and worse, some of the negative dynamics of globalization have started infecting domestic politics,

not just in the U.S., but in many other countries. God, I feel smarter already. Professor Prasad, one of the things that struck me and I said this, we graduated the same year from undergraduate, me from UCLA, hearing from the University of Madras. I graduated with a 2.27 GPA with an incredible ability to make bongs out of any household item. He won a scholarship in India that identified like one of the 50 smartest kids of a billion kids.

And so what does a guy who's one of the 50, like, this guy could walk into the Rose Bowl and take the average IQ of those 80,000 people up a couple points. That's how smart and hardworking this man is. So what are we doing? What are we saying to these people now? Can you imagine a kid coming at the University of Amateurs right now in 2026? Is he going to go to Brown? No, he's going to go to McGill or he's going to go to Instituto-U-Umbresa, or he's going to go to Ensiad,

Or who knows, maybe the University of Cordoba in Argentina. I mean, we are... Speaking of doom loops, academic doom loops, yeah. We're the sports team that used to have access to the number one draft of any college in the world, and we've said, no, we don't want you. And now we just have Prof. Gee coming back to Phoenix. That's... Talk about a bad trade.

He is repatriating himself in the summer. He's coming back. Anyway, it sounds like a great interview. I'll be listening to it. Anyway, that is... is the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. And be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week. Today's show is produced by Lauren Amin, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin.

Ernie Intert Engine of this episode. Manola Moreno edited the video. Thanks to also to Dubros, Ms. Cervero, and Dan Ceylon. Nishakura as Vox Media's executive producer podcast, make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine to Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at NYMag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things, tech and business. Thank you.