Pivot - House Judiciary Committee antitrust bills, Microsoft hits $2 trillion, and a prediction on the future of social media

Episode Date: June 25, 2021

Kara and Scott talk about the six antitrust bills the House is contemplating this week and what it means for big tech and political divisions. They also discuss Microsoft joining Apple as the 2nd $2 trillion company. In listener mail, they discuss how much climate change will cost versus the Covid-19 crisis. In predictions, Scott foresees new companies emerging with big tech break up looming. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It is so clear. It is so obvious. I will be portraying John McAfee in the upcoming biopic. Oh, my God. I knew you. You are a ghoul. It's so obvious. You kind of look like him, by the way.

Just a little bit. You know what? With a little beard situation. You kind of look like him a little bit. I'll be honest with you. I do. And I mean, let's be honest. If you're going to really go, really embrace the midlife crisis, you have to give John his props. I mean, we have some guys going into space in dildos. We have other guys, John McAfee, who ends up marrying a prostitute who was sent to kill him, does blow, kills neighbors, and fakes heart attacks to avoid extradition.

This guy was a gangster. I'm sorry. This guy was a gangster. I feel it's a tragic story of mental illness, but okay. There isn't a network, a producer, or someone with an iPhone that is not planning that series right now. Yeah, I knew him a little bit.

Did you? Yeah, you know, he was around for... He was a troubled person, let me just say. I'm not going to... Oh, you think? Yeah, but it was sad. Did he have it figured out?

Are we the ones that are troubled? Maybe so. Maybe so. But let me just say, he, of course, kept tweeting he was going to be murder-suicided, essentially. And now there's a whole conspiracy theory on the internet. Like, he's moved into Epstein territory. Was he killed? Was he this?

Was he that? He was a paranoid something. I'm not a doctor, but he was really quite mad. And so, I don't know what happened to him. But you're right. It's going to be a movie. You're right. I heard that he found out that the trial was going to be 30 days.

Yeah. Get it? Trial, 30 days. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Too soon? Too soon.

Too soon. Too soon. I'm going to. You know what? People, there are real people in trouble. There's a chilling story from the Wall Street Journal. You detail how the Ant Group, Jack Ma's companies, and talks with the Chinese government to create a new credit scoring company

that would result in a trove of data on Chinese citizens' finances being released to the state. This takeover of Jack Ma, that is, to me, the most chilling story, actually. You know, in terms of having been this entrepreneur, been celebrated in China. You and I have talked about this. And then they're just like taking apart piece by piece. I mean, it is, and he's such a fascinating character.

Talk about a story. This is like, I'd really love to know more about it, but like how it happened and what they decided to do and the decision making here. Because it's really, it's really chilling. I find it. decision-making here because it's really chilling. I find it chilling. I don't know. This reminds me of when MSBS, I was named MBS, decided that there were too many people making too much money outside of the control of the ruling family or the kingdom. Yeah. Yeah. You put them all in a hotel. And basically put them all in a Ritz-Carlton and said, I'm glad you, you know, welcome. I'm glad

you could all make it today. Nobody's leaving until you give us X percent of your wealth and acknowledge and also come to the recognition over the next 48 hours that we're in fucking charge. And I think this is somewhat similar. These companies have become so powerful. I would like more coverage of China. Like what's going on with the Bitcoin stuff, with this, this like pushed this it's just explicit autocracy is really it's an interesting move right now as our relations with them become more tense and i think that's it's only going that direction um as they compete for internet hegemony at the same time and it goes some very ugly places if you're if the government has access to not only your financial

records but your credit score and can decide that maybe if your emails include anti-government rhetoric, they take your credit score down such that you can't buy airline tickets or you can't pay tuition. You want to talk about powerful and financial through, I think it's Alipay, has a billion customers, which is the same as the thing that Chuck Todd is very excited about, Peacock. Oh, wait, no, that's 10 million. 10 million. So Ant Financial. Someone has to be excited about Peacock. Hi, Chuck Todd, who did not take me up on the invitation for drinks. Yeah, that was it.

People noticed that. He's excited about Peacock. He's excited about Peacock. Anyways, Peacock has— Nonetheless, there's lots of stories out of China. There's another one in the Times of another real estate company, Moguls, and their friend who got put in jail for, I don't know, eight years for distributing one anti-Chinese thing.

A billion people use Ant Financial. 200 million use Netflix. Ant Financial has five times the customer base of Netflix. I mean, these things are just so massive. You know who this, I was thinking about this this morning, and I'm curious what your take on this. You know whose value just got cut by 30% with this move? Who? The most exciting company in the last two years, TikTok.

TikTok, yeah. Because if all of a sudden every gangster internet company is perceived globally as an apparatus for the Chinese security forces, are you really going to want your kids using TikTok? As usual, you come out with an interesting insight. I agree with you. I agree with you. We got to keep on this story. This China story is really developing and there's all kinds of things happening. In this country, Warren Buffett is stepping down at the Gates Foundation as a trustee. I mean, he's older. I think, who knows if it was internal politics. I don't know anything in the future of the Gates Foundation. But, I mean, he probably is cutting back on lots of stuff. But it's another, you know, it's an end of an era for sure, those two.

They had a love fest, him and Gates. Yeah, and you, you know, I think you got to let the guy take a victory lap. I think it's incredible. My father is turning 91. And, you know, my father's in exceptional shape, worked out his whole life, got me into working out, has lived a fairly, you know, a fairly healthy life, is thin, swims every day. And I'll tell you, 90 is rough. And I think it's incredible that Warren Buffett has been as,

you know, he's just very, he's not only an impressive man, what's incredible is how impressive he is at 90. Yeah, he is. And so, the fact that. He's a live wire. The fact that he's stepping back and doesn't feel the need to get on a plane and go to board meetings four times a year. Yeah.

Word, brother. Well done. Yeah, yeah. I had dinner with him a couple of years ago, two years ago, and he was very lively. Although you could just see, you know, I was like,

I wonder how, you know, he was elderly. I just don't know. You know what I mean? He was definitely slower, but then he ate, you know, a plate of meat as big as my head. Twinkies. And then ate the stuff on my plate.

So, I felt like, all right, okay. Like, and lively as can be, but definitely, it's an interesting thing. I think it'll be interesting to see where the Gates Foundation goes with this. You know, Melinda has her own stuff that she's going to be working on. And obviously, Gates is dedicated his life to the Gates Foundation, and both of them have. And so, you know, working together is going to be, especially, looks like a pretty acrimonious divorce, considering, you know, it doesn't necessarily have to be, given there's so much money to go around, but it doesn't look like a pretty divorce for sure. And so, it'll be interesting to see this, you know, the Gates Foundation has been the most important philanthropy of this yeah you've said that you said you think this is a big deal it is i don't quite know what i don't know anything about it but it's definitely

it's gonna you know i assume it's gonna settle out at some point it'll be the bill gates foundation essentially um but who knows and then they have children and we'll see how involved they are um in this they're older children i mean they're children. I would think it's going to be just fine, though. I think my understanding is it's always had a reputation. I remember meeting Patti Stone Cypher like 15 years ago and thinking she was a really impressive woman and she was running it at the time. My sense is they have great management

and I think they both have a vested interest in it, regardless of what happens between them and around them. I think they have a vested interest in it regardless of what happens between them and around them i think they have a vested interest in making sure that i always have an issue with these foundations owned by rich people i was offered a job at one of them um someone i like a billionaire i like and i and i literally said to this billionaire i said i can't work for one billionaire like you know what i mean like who knows if you go crazy or if you got a crazy partner or your kids like i just don't like it doesn't feel stable to me to be, you know, to have a kingdom, essentially. And that's why I turned it down.

I just was like, I can't say no to you, essentially, which was, anyway, it was an interesting thing. We'll see where it goes. I think they've done amazing. That's called having a boss. I don't understand the difference between that and. No, but, you know, you have a boss and you have an actual person who owns the money. Like, it's a different thing.

It's a different thing it's it's a different thing to be able to that's why like a lot of these things happen to these internet companies people can't talk to the boss that's what happened with bill gates and microsoft they they certainly did something in general yeah yeah i guess speaking of power britney spears uh and her bombshell statement to a los angeles judge about ending the conservative ship which has been really interesting the the new york times did a really interesting video about it. I mean, a documentary. She's been under it for 13 years. She said she's been compelled to work against her will, drugged, not able to make choices about her physical health. And, you know, she's got a real contingent of people that are trying to free her,

free Britney. A conservatorship is for people who are in some way incapacitated. She certainly had mental illness issues, but she's been working steadily up until 2019 when she decided not to work anymore. She's at odds with her father as a financial conservator, gets a salary, gets a percentage of any deals he signs for her. He hasn't done that while managing her finances. She's worth $60 million for comparison. J-Lo is worth $150 million. Britney has sold more albums worldwide than J-Lo. for comparison. J-Lo is worth $150 million. Britney has sold more albums worldwide than J-Lo. Britney is paying for both sides in legal battle. It's a really interesting issue. You know, I actually watch her Instagram because it's full of clues and stuff like that. I don't know why I'm compelled by this woman who seems like she's definitely got mental illness issues,

but it feels like she's, this is like beyond belief what's happened here with her I don't know the article that was forwarded around you read it and it's disturbing and granted it felt like you were sort of getting one side of the story if you will but you know what it reminded me of the mother and the sister are on her side but go ahead

the fantastic film I think probably Jessica Lange's best film do you remember a movie called Francis back in, I think it was in the 80s? Yes. Oh, yeah. Yes. It had echoes of that. That what happens when the institutions or governments fail someone in this situation.

And it sounds like they can even fail people with a lot of money and what you would think is a lot of power. Yeah. But you read it. Well, she's gotten even fail people with a lot of money and what you would think is a lot of power. Yeah. But you read it. Well, she's gotten taken advantage of by a lot of people. That guy who was sort of running her stuff, too. Like, there's the thing. When you look around, you know, this is sort of has Tony Hsieh was the same thing. We talked about it.

When you look around and everyone around you is being paid by you, you've got a real problem. You know what I mean? Like you've got a real, like you can't get any good advice from anyone if everyone is your employee on some level or benefits from your working or whatever. And I think it's, I think it's fascinating. She refuses to work and, you know, not making more money, but it seems she put up something that was just lovely about her two kids, she and her sons. And they look like, you know, who knows what's going on behind the scenes, but it was one of these lovely pictures of her with her kids saying, I'm just so proud of them. And they seemed, you know, who knows with Instagram and stuff like that.

But it felt like, I just, this is really, I mean, people make fun of it. It's sort of like talking about the Kardashians or whatever. But it is really like, you have to go watch this New York Times documentary. You're sort of like, let her out, dad. Like, what is going on here? And it should be, it's a really, it should be someday a really big case, but she's certainly been hindered. At the same time, she certainly needs help. And it's a fascinating legal story at some point.

But we have to move on to big stories. Go ahead. But Britney Spears was right. My loneliness is killing me. I'm thinking of putting you under a conservatorship. I have absolutely nothing to say about this. I'm thinking of putting you under a conservatorship. That's my way of saying I have absolutely nothing to say about this. I'm thinking of declaring, becoming your conservator. I kind of like that.

Yeah. I like it. I like it when other people are in charge. And taking all your things and letting you stay in a tiny little room of your giant house. I like it when people order me around. I like other people in charge. Yeah, I'm going to order you around. Me and your wife are going to put you under watch.

Like under watch. And then we're going to make you work. You're making this sound as if that would be a new thing. What do you think this podcast... Anyway, I'm not even going to go there. I want out, Judge. This has been an abusive relationship.

I'd like a legal right to do things. I'd like a legal right to do this. Alright, big stories. We're moving on to big stories. The House Judiciary Committee is considering a package of sweeping antitrust bills. I talked about it this week a little bit with you that would reign in big tech companies. Last week, the House introduced a total of six bills that would take sweeping antitrust measures directed at big tech. The bipartisan bills would be the most aggressive challenge at Silicon Valley and Washington, D.C. But this week, already lawmakers are facing pushback. We talked about

like these different things. The New York Times is reporting that Apple's CEO, Tim Cook, called Nancy Pelosi and other lawmakers and called the antitrust bills rushed, although it's been 10 years, Tim. Advisors from Amazon and Google have spoken out against the bills. I did talk to Representative David Cicilline about this, who's been on Pivot. We've had him on Pivot. And so it's really, you know, he thinks they're going to go through and that this is the way to do it very slowly with each of them. And the only bill that really is probably going to pass is more fees for the FTC and mergers in order to pay for enforcement. The others are going to have a real tough, tough row. What do you think about where these are?

Tech companies are not happy. Yeah. And I think I think you're about to see a ton of money splashed around Republican candidates because I think that— Really? Why? Well, I think the big tech will say the way you defeat an enemy is you atomize them. And the most dangerous thing about these bills right now is there's a certain level of bipartisan support. And so if I were the chief lobbyist for this group of people uh or big tech i would say all right our job is to atomize the competition and the easiest way to do that right now is to politicize the

argument as being anti-business and get every republican on our side and then have a couple moderates um on the democratic party come across as pro-business and water down some stuff uh so i you know that's how i would be strategizing and the way they get. So, you know, that's how I would be strategizing. And the way they get to Republicans, you know, Democrats pursue power as a means to an ideological end. Republicans pursue power in and among itself. They just want political power. And I think you're going to see a lot of freshmen and kind of early-term Republican congressmen and Republican senators all of a sudden start to get a lot of money from the lobbying groups from big tech. I think they're going to go hard first after the Republicans. It's going to be a war, but it's the same way with tobacco. Go ahead. The GOP has been very anti-tech. This has been like, whether it's Ted Cruz or Jim Jordan or

whatever, who's on this committee, there's a lot of infighting that there shouldn't be alliances between the, that's one thing, that's one fissure is the, like Ken Buck didn't really want to talk to me because he didn't want to be seen talking with a Democrat, with David Cicilline, I think, like, I don't know, I have no idea, but I just think they're very, they've made these alliances, which I think are the right thing to do. But then there's the issues around conservative bias, that which a lot of people on that side don't think has been addressed enough here. I think they're going to sort of make a lot of noise about that. The other part is this anti-business, it feels, you know, giving it that feel. Republicans naturally want to be pro-business, although recently that's not been the case, right?

And so it's going to be an interesting thing because they just can't let go of this conservative bias issue. And most of these bills do not have a chance of passing, and even Cicilline sort of acknowledged that. And the only one was the one about enforcement money, more enforcement money going to the FTC, which seems like a very easy lift of all these things. Some of them are quite complex in terms of what they want to do and very, you know, it really does shove the hand of government into the market rather substantively. And I think they have a good argument that that's the case. Yeah, but here's why it'll work. Because between now and whenever this thing might happen,

whether it's, call it optimistically, a couple of years and most likely the better part of a decade for this really to become new antitrust law and for it to be implemented, big tech is going to continue to fuck up. They're going to continue to damage the Commonwealth. There'll be new scandals. There'll be new cover-ups. There'll be new evidence

that our children are a lot worse off. There'll be new evidence that these platforms get weaponized by bad actors. So I have a lot of faith, not in the Republicans or the Democrats to come together, but in big tech to continue to abuse the Commonwealth and the mental well-being of a lot of populace. And they won't say,

we need to figure this out and be on our best behavior. There's a level of arrogance there that they believe, I think, they can get away with almost anything. And I don't think that's changed. I don't think they feel chastened by this. There was a poll that I think, I forget what it was. It was a decent poll that showed that most people don't really, like 50% were like, yeah. Whatever. There's not a big, you know, hue and cry to do something about this, except among the chattering class like ourselves.

And I do, that's fine. You know, look, people didn't just say seatbelts, everybody. Like, I bet, you know, that was a small group of people who pushed for those or cigarettes. Let's do something about them or opiates even. And I think that's, there is, there is indication that people, the issue is people like tech and like the uses of it. There's sort of, of all the many things you could stack up for them to be concerned about, this one's not high on the list, essentially.

Although, you know, they're concerned. There was like, I think it was 53% who were concerned. Others were like, yeah, whatever, 40%. Some were like, yeah, whatever. Not, I got to worry about this, this, and this. And so I think that's where the tech has strength, is inertia in people and that they like these tools. And at the same time, they're like,

oh, are they spying on us? It's not like China here, right? It's sort of, it's like China, but not, right? It's not, it's like, oh, they're not like China. They're not trying to like, they're just trying to sell us toilet paper, essentially. So, you know, it's going to be interesting. I don't think they're going to pass much of it but it is you know the idea of splitting

them up i think was smart from from these legislators and like taking them piece by piece the other part is they want to do this so that later they can focus in on all of consolidation whether it's farm like what what amy klobuchar talked about it was pharmacy or it's caskets or whatever. You know, the bigger picture of consolidation, meat processing, there's all kinds of areas that have consolidated rather seemingly. But tech is the lowest hanging fruit in this area. So we'll see. We'll see. I think it's interesting that Tim Cook called Pelosi and that they're being much more aggressive.

Interestingly, the last part, and I'd love your thought on this, Marguerite Vestager, of course, took aim at Google. She's like going right through. She doesn't care if she loses sometimes. She's just keeping up the artillery fire at these companies. And so, she took aim at an investigation of Google. She's going to go after Amazon soon, I think, and others, and especially with Spotify and Apple, for sure. That's the next thing moving onto her plate rather strongly. So, we'll see. Europe is certainly not sitting back, but U.S., I think, will be a slow, it's a slow process. Yeah, but the cohort we haven't discussed, and I think it'll be the cohort. I mean, we talked about, okay, the general public is busy with their own lives and as you know is sort of interested not really or not as interested as you said would you call us the

chatter group the chatter crowd chattering class we're the chattering class we chatter yeah that's what you are you're part of the chattering class not a man of the people i'm part of the mcafee gang that's right that's right. That's right. Oh, you're here to have sex? You're here to have sex with me for money? Oh, no, you're here to kill me? Let's get married. Let's get, I'd like to cut your jib. Anyways.

That totally cut you. Where was I? Where was I? Oh, the cohort. The cohort, you're up there. All I can think about is prostitutes sent to kill me and Chuck Todd. Those are the only two things on my mind. I'm going to go for drinks with Chuck Todd and send you a picture from there.

But go ahead. Keep going. Yeah, I do that too. Why? Anyway, we're not even going to go into that. But so the cohort you left out and the cohort that will ultimately push a lot of this legislation over the line is business that isn't big tech I don't care if you're L'Oreal I don't care if you're Yelp you fucking hate these guys and the biggest if you just look at the S&P the

s the the the fang stocks are 25% of the S&P but but the other 75% hate that 25%. Yeah, that's true. Because they have been abused by them. They feel they play by a different set of rules. They feel like if they do anything remotely similar to them, antitrust is all over them. They have laws all over them. They have consumer pushback.

And they see these guys upping the rents on them across everything they do, whether it's buying keywords, whether it's selling into Amazon. Yeah, Hollywood too. You're not leaving out Hollywood. They see the tax breaks they do, whether it's buying keywords, whether it's selling into Amazon, whether it's, or they see the tax breaks they get, and they're just like, they have lobbyists too. So it won't be the general public. I think an alliance that will be performed here,

the people in the background will be the rest of business saying, you are, these guys are hurting the economy and they're hurting us. And Joe, we hope that you- The Rupert Murdochs of the world, the Disneys, the- Yeah, for sure. Why not take advantage? A sausage manufacturer that is sick of being abused by Amazon's buyers in Wisconsin.

You're going to see all kinds- There are small and big businesses. And I talk to these guys. I get emails every day from saying, you have no idea the level of abuse we are subject to. Because when 50 cents on the dollar is e-commerce dollars through Amazon, and you have to be in e-commerce, you have to be on Amazon, and then you have to comply with their increasingly onerous higher ransom, what you need to do to stay on Amazon. And then consumers, they do deliver. It's interesting. I got a tweet of someone saying,

I think logistics in Amazon are terrible. And I was like, no, I literally ordered something. I'm up in a place in Rhode Island and I ordered some stuff and it was a day early here. And like, I didn't think it was going to come from five to eight in the morning the next minute I ordered it, but it was here very early on time. And the guy delivered and I said, oh, you're a day early.

He goes, yeah, we try to stay ahead of the competition. I said, is there competition? And the guy delivered and I said, oh, you're a day early. He goes, yeah, we try to stay ahead of the competition. I said, is there competition? The guy was like, not really. He said, this is the Amazon delivery guy. It was so funny. And I was like, is there? He's like, no, no. Like it was, it was, it was fascinating. Like how good they are. Anyway, you're correct, Scott. You are correct. You're a big business. Other big businesses are going to try to fight these businesses. But let me just say, tech is here to play, and they're going to pressure every single lawmaker on this and try to water it down rather significantly. Very few of these bills are going to pass, at least in this session, and we'll just have to see where it goes from there. And again, the Republicans can't give up. They just can't quit the idea that they're being discriminated against, which they are not. There's no evidence. It's evidence-proof. Fine. Let them believe that. Whatever.

Whatever it takes. If that's what's required, let them believe that. Yeah. Actually, that's essentially what David Cicilline has said. No, no. They really are aliens. Fine. Just do what we want.

Yeah. David Cicilline kind of said that. It's like, I don't agree with that, but I want them to focus in on the power of big tech. All right, Scott. Let's go on a quick break. We'll come back to talk about Microsoft becoming a $2 trillion company. It entered that area. And a listener mail question.

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we just talked about. Microsoft reached the $2 trillion milestone just over two years after it first passed the $1 trillion market cap. Microsoft stock has gained 64% since the pandemic lockdowns. People don't pay as much attention to them and their power. Started in the United States in March 2020. Microsoft is also launching its new Windows 11 this week. Remember how that used to be a big deal? Well, it's back again. We'll have Yusuf Mehdi, the Microsoft Vice President of Modern Life Search and Devices. I've known him a long time

on the show next week to talk more about the leaps at Microsoft. So what do you think? You know, we've talked about Satya Nadella hitting all the cylinders here and quietly so in the background. He was not, there's a lot. They got, they kind of got out of these bills

that they've made some changes where it only focuses on Amazon, Apple and Facebook and Google. So what do you think? What do you think? There's, there's no getting around it. It's, it's actually the third company to hit 2 trillion.

Saudi Aramco hit it briefly. But look, there's two things that, that I think have pushed it over $2 trillion. The first is a business reason and then a non-business reason. And that is they are cloud. And I think of them not only as cloud, but they're kind of the purest play cloud. Because if you look at Amazon, you might not guess it's a big cloud player. Even if you look at Google.

But Microsoft Cloud. they're not the two trillion dollar club they're not those two are google and amazon yeah yeah they're not the the the question is which of those two will probably be next i think it'll be amazon but anyways yeah uh they're firing on all cylinders cloud enterprise software gaming but the other thing that they benefit from enormously and it can't be underestimated, is the likability of Satya Nadella. Yeah. Because it's B2B, because they haven't been subject to as many scandals, because we're not worried about PowerPoint weaponizing an election or depressing our teens. Yeah.

And Satya Nadella is really well-liked. Microsoft has kind of gone from being Darth Vader to a Wookiee. And that is, they're just sort of big and powerful and quiet and likable. And as a result, this is huge because every time Facebook, Google, Apple, or Amazon think, you know what, we're missing a key component of the supply chain here of our tech stack. Get the bankers in here. Here are the five companies we'd acquire. Reach out to two of them.

They have to go, well, can we do that? Can we do that? Whereas Microsoft can just full steam ahead on their plan. And there's probably acquisitions they've made that they got- Yeah, they managed to get out of this thing. And these new bills, they have a word mobile in there,

which Microsoft failed in essentially. And so it gets, someone was telling, a lobbyist, was telling me Microsoft has correctly, not correctly, has deftly gotten out of these bills because of wording and stuff. Another person that doesn't get as much attention,

not just Sachin Della, is Brad Smith, who sort of has been writing books about responsibility and this and that. He's the one that actually convinced Gates and Ballmer to calm the fuck down, essentially, during that period. And so it's a really interesting thing because they are incredibly powerful and they do,

but they've managed to slip out of a lot of things. The market cap, by the way, of Amazon is 1.7 trillion and Google is 1.67 trillion. and Google is $1.67 trillion. So they're getting close. They're getting close. Sundar Pichai got dinged this week in a piece in The Times about his lack of decision-making and a lot of executives leaving there and sort of becoming like an old thing. But he's still facing enormous pressures around search and this and that.

So you're right. So where does Microsoft go? They've been doing all this really deaf stuff in gaming, obviously cloud. They've made some really interesting purchases. The gaming stuff is fascinating, I think, and people have not paid as much attention to it. Obviously, Windows is still,

it used to be sort of the scary, you know, tip of the spear, really, of everything else. But they've done a lot of stuff that I think has been, you know, and they've moved into defense department. They did win that Jetty contract over Amazon, although that's now in dispute, which we should ask Yusuf about. But what do you imagine they're going to do next? More of the same and then AI. They're already a leader in AI. They're really strong in mobile computing. It took them 33 years to get to a trillion, and then it

just took them about 24 months to get to two trillion. And I don't know if you've heard, but they talk about an exciting, enormous contract. They've won the cloud services contract for Peacock with 10 million users.

10 million users. Peacock! Oh, my God. You know, when Peacock with 10 million users. 10 million users. Peacock. Oh, my God. You know, when Peacock becomes really successful, you're going to have to eat your words. I am going to have to eat my words. By the way. I was watching Peacock. They have some good stuff on there.

Said no one ever. Said, oh, you actually were. Well, I'm sorry. Go ahead. Go ahead. No, I'm just telling you. They're not Netflix. It's either Jean-Luc Picard, Trevor Noah, or Starship Commander Jean-Luc Picard, which,

by the way, is my Halloween outfit every year. Huge crowd loser. He's great. You know, I met him once at dinner at the Shakespeare Theater. He's lovely, right? Tell me he's lovely. Oh, my God. He was so, like, so dreamy.

He was dreamy and smart and erudite, the whole thing. He was exactly what you do. He was not, like, I would have been sad if he was like, hey, how you doing? Like that. No, he was totally classy. He's a classic. He's a strip club's bitch. Yeah. No, he was totally classy. He's a classic. Let's hit the strip clubs, bitch. Yeah.

No, he was lovely. Wow, that popped up. I am so channeling John McAfee today. I see that. I see that. I wish you don't end up like John McAfee. In any case, we'll talk about this with Yusuf because I think Microsoft's a really interesting, you know, you sort of see the future of some of these other companies if they did things

right, right? At the same time, it still has the same issues around power and dominance in lots of areas. And they do slip out of it because they're not damaging in the way the others are so explicitly damaging. But still, the concentration of power is problematic no matter what you do and the concentration of wealth. But you're right. Satya really has handled it in a way that is much more deft. He's coming to code, so we'll be able to talk to him about that. Really?

Yeah, he's coming to code. I've known him since he was like a nobody. Same thing with Yusuf. He was like a lower, he wasn't lower level, but he was just a product manager of a bunch of divisions. And he used to, he was, I always enjoyed talking to him. There were a lot of real jackasses at Microsoft, and he was not among them.

When I, and Yusuf is the same way, which is interesting. So we'll talk to him. We'll talk, it will be interesting to see what happens, but they have stayed out of the limelight. So we'll see where they go. What do you, so what do you, who will get the next $2 trillion cup, Google or Amazon? You said Amazon. You think it's Amazon? I just think, I think the most, I think the business that will gain the most market capitalization over the next several years is Amazon, and it'll be on the backs of their entry into healthcare.

I think that the most exciting thing coming, well, was that enough? You don't want any color? You got what you needed? You got what you needed? You're done? I want to hear more. Go ahead. Knock yourself out.

Seriously. I have an idea. I want to control you. Go ahead. Seriously. I have an idea. I want to control you. Oh, really? In the future. I do control you. Anyways. So, look, I think the most exciting thing coming out of the pandemic from a business level is that we might be able to push 18% of our economy, healthcare, and disperse it away from doctors offices and hospitals into smartphones

and smart speakers and take healthcare from a defensive driven industry disease driven industry we're on our heels onto our toes more of a health driven industry and the the absolutely the organization that has all the assets to do it is amazon and it's just going to be, I mean, when 18% of the economy all of a sudden goes up for grabs, I think it's going to just, anyway, I don't know who's next to $2 trillion, but I do think the first to $3 trillion is going to be Amazon on the back of healthcare. Yeah, all right.

What does Microsoft buy? I'm going to let you run some more, Scott, and then we'll get to a listener mail question. I don't know. I agree with you. Anything? The only thing, oh, and by the way, I have to to correct the record again it's like third show in a row i hate it when people take us seriously anyways the um the place the place um uh that relative to the size of the

business that gets the least amount of attention and and you've said this, is gaming. And Microsoft has a foothold in gaming, and it's supposed to continue to grow. It's a great business. It foots to their competence. So I would imagine that in addition to AI and cloud, which are amazing businesses, Microsoft will continue to be kind of a key player in gaming. And if you look at all media, I mean everything, like traditional media, cable, the two things that are growing are streaming and gaming. Yeah. And we never, and gaming's like 100, I mean, it's just crazy.

We need to focus on it. We need to focus. We're obsessed. We'd constantly talk about the motion picture industry. The total domestic box office receipts are $7 billion. Gaming is like $150 billion. It is indeed. I mean, it just doesn't.

We had this issue when I ran All Things D. We should have paid more. People didn't want to read about it, even though it was bigger. I know it sounds crazy, but it was true. Top scholar in the world on gaming, Yost von Drone at NYU. He's very good. Well, let's have Yost on then to tell us about it, to teach us. How about that? Why don't you use your very tenuous relationship with NYU to get us some luck?

My tenuous? Let me just say, I'm going to make a prediction. Yost and I are on good terms. Yost and I are on good terms. We're both looking for wives, so we're getting hookers. I think Microsoft might come back with TikTok. They wanted that TikTok. I think that's, I'm going to make a little prediction here. I think they're going to re-look at TikTok. You're right, they're in a state with the situation with China. It's going to get worse. Microsoft and TikTok, they were in there very interested. We'll see.

That would be a really interesting acquisition for them. And to put it in that unit. And we can ask Yusuf of this all on Monday. Okay, Scott, let's pivot to a listener question. Roll tape. You you've got i can't believe i'm gonna be a mailman you've got mail hello karen scott it's mark here an american kiwi calling from auckland new zealand i love what you both have to say about climate change i love you both acknowledge the climate crisis but i have been noticing that even though you talk about it very occasionally on the show, you don't give climate a lot of space on the show. And you definitely don't mention,

of course, as much as COVID. However, we are starting to get reports in that the climate crisis is, of course, going to cost much more than COVID has caused much more disruption. And your recent talking about the G7, you talked about the tax treaty, but not about the impacts of G7 countries, fossil fuel companies, putting in gas projects in the global South, hooking them into more fossil fuels. We'd love to hear more. We have a lot of fans in New Zealand.

Yes, I do. Because Mark, that is not true. I've interviewed not just, I've interviewed Bill Gates about this. I've discussed about his book. I've done several columns about the climate crisis and discussed it a lot about where the, we should talk more about it here though.

What are the cool companies that are moving forward, whether it's carbon capture, whether it's all kinds of interventions, even space travel is part of that. The idea of moving ourselves off this planet because of the dangers of climate crisis. I've talked to food people, I've done interviews. I talk a lot about it in a more substantive way. And we should do that here,

just like with gaming, I think Scott is right. This is an area that is going to be both an opportunity and a real potential for huge economic destruction over the years. Whether you're thinking about, you know, I happen to be in coastal Rhode Island, and they're talking about the idea of these hurricanes coming through and devastating these areas and covering them up and the amount of, that's just one place. And I think we, you know, Miami, whether Scott's down in Florida, it's a big issue. You know, people are going to start to think about this. This idea of getting to zero carbon emissions is critically important. And the fact that our governments keep slow rolling this is, it doesn't really matter.

The earth is going to do what it wants in some level, but I think it's really, I think the cost of damage of climate change is, is compared to COVID is massive, like massive, massive, massive. And the deaths that are going to be the result of it massive. I think we're probably not going to see it as much in developed countries because they can protect themselves and we don't mind people unfortunately when people die in other places that we don't pay attention to,

nobody pays attention to them. So anyway, so this one thing which we did talk about was Gary Gensler adding climate report cards for companies. The tech companies are leading the way with renewable, Amazon announced it's going to buy renewable energy sources to cover the report cards for companies. The tech companies are leading the way with renewable Amazon analysis, going to buy renewable energy sources, cover the company's activities.

You know, all these they've been doing offsets. It's just the beginning step. So, Scott, what do you think? I think it's going to be an important part of corporate, corporate speaking to the public, correct? And not just, you know, virtue signaling. Yeah, I mean, I always look at the line. I'm cynical about big tech. It's much easier for someone in a digital business, a software-driven business, to be very indignant about climate change versus someone that's actually manufacturing things. It's just a totally different... Look, it's great that they're taking it on. Something that has made me much more environmentally aware is COVID. Specifically, when emissions dropped by something like 20 or 30 percent in the first 12 weeks of the pandemic last year, there was a noticeable change in how clear

the water was, how crisp the air was. And I thought, my God, why wouldn't we decide this is the new normal? It just, unselfishly, I wasn't even thinking about all the devastation of weather events, but just selfishly going out. Think about how housing prices, housing prices have accelerated 11% or 13% quarter on quarter. We spend millions of dollars. It is such an incredible lift for each of us and our families to get into a nice home. Housing has become so expensive if you want to own in the US. Why wouldn't we, all of us, make a somewhat, a fraction of the financial effort and focus on making our backyard exceptional? I'm just so blown away by how beautiful my backyard got. And when I say my backyard, I mean the sea land and the sky. And also the reason I don't talk about it a lot is there are certain categories that are so important that if you don't have domain expertise, and this is how I'm sort of evolving as a person, you shut the fuck up. And the reality is, I don't really have a lot of domain expertise. And whenever you say anything, including anything I said here, there's a religious fervor around this topic. And people come out, it's impossible to say anything that doesn't piss people off.

And especially if you don't have domain expertise here. So, my good friend Bob Perkowitz at Echo America, he really, he said something, and again, I bring everything back to me, but when you talk about the power of this stuff, and I just look at it through the lens of how powerful powerful or how i've come to embrace the outdoors when my one of my sons was struggling he said all you need to do is get him uh outside it's one of the most restorative things you can do so anyways the bottom line is i'm trying to be more thoughtful about this stuff because i realized not only not only how important climate change is but just how wonderful uh you know the outdoors is uh it adds a great endorsement but anyways i i a huge topic

i don't think either of us don't feel don't feel aren't supporters of it we're just are don't recognize the problem here it's just uh it's just it's best when you don't know what you're talking about really interesting it would be kind of interesting as an exercise for you to look at where are the investment opportunities because i you know i i wrote something in a column last year and i said the world's first trillionaire, speaking of trillionaires, will be a climate change technologist. And I made that up.

I just made it up. I was just trying to say like, this is an area of great economic opportunity to try to make, to figure these things out. But behind just mitigation, which is carbon capture and everything else, but where is the real innovation gonna happen in smart manufacturing, in smart home building, smart food making?

There's so much shift that could happen here that could, just like with electrical, like beyond coal. We still have a dirty world, but it's not as dirty as London used to be filthy, right? because London used to be filthy, right? So what is the way that we can make this an economic opportunity, which is a way to spur innovation for a lot of people? And I'd love to start thinking about what are the cool companies that are, what are the companies that are most interesting and what are going to be the biggest companies in our world? Because this is going to, whoever dominates this

is going to be a very important player in the next 20 years. Yeah, and it's one of those things, too, that it feels like the weather events or climate change-inspired catastrophes, whether it's the wildfires in California or rising sea levels, whatever it might be, it feels like, unfortunately, we went from, there became so many of them so fast. It feels as if we hit some sort of tipping point. Yeah, that's what they say. But I worry we're becoming a little bit numb to it.

But these, you know, it's something like 80% of the crazy wildfires that have ever happened in California have happened in the last decade. Yeah, yeah. You know what we're going to do, Scott? What's that? Go ahead and finish. At PivotCon in Miami, we're going to do a section on this, on the interesting companies. But the thing that's so disappointing, again, about something that's so important is how the hell did this get politicized? Republicans, Teddy Roosevelt, the first great environmentalist, was a Republican.

Like, when did we all decide if you're on the left, you have to be, you know, like, you can't. left, you have to be, you know, like, you can't, there's a lot of what I would call unreasonable conversations on the left around the environment, not acknowledging that people at the end of the day, regardless of what's right or wrong, will vote for their economic interests. And unless you address economic growth in the, you know, all of this in the context of climate change, you're just not going to have a productive conversation. And then on the right, they want to be science deniers. Right. It's just, well, how did we get here, folks? I mean, anyway, I don't, I find whenever, how the fuck did we politicize obesity, masking, and environment? Everything.

Something that we kind of appear to all have a shared vested interest in figuring out. Everything is politicized now. But maybe it won't be in the future. Anyway, Mark, American Kiwi, we think this is important. We're going to do our homework on this and gaming. Okay, Scott, those are the two things. Well, I wonder what Chuck Todd thinks. No, I don't.

I don't care. Chuck Todd. Chuck Todd, you and your... I'm excited about Peacock. Peacock. I'm excited about Peacock. Peacock. Say it like that.

Let's have a Peacock show and have nobody watch it. Anyway, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. Do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere and you're making content that no one sees and it takes forever to build a campaign? Well, that's why we built HubSpot. It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer.

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The leadership team founded the company with a commitment to an ethical approach that puts humanity first. To learn more, visit anthropic.com slash Claude. That's anthropic.com slash Claude. Okay, Scott, predictions. Go for it. I made my little prediction about Microsoft. You make one now. The most exciting thing about antitrust is that it's oxygenating for the environment. And when I say the environment, I mean the business environment. And we're about to see a massive amount of innovation in categories where there was a dearth of startups because people saw monopoly power. And that is we're going to see there hasn't been a social network of any size in America launched since 2011, and that was Pinterest. In the next 24 months, we'll see two

or three new viable, robust startups in social media. We're going to see new hardware companies. We're going to see new search engines. We already see subscription search engine Neva. We're going to see new ad tech platforms. Companies and their backers are going to say, are going to believe that it's a credible threat that these companies are about to be broken up and antitrust is coming. I mean, even one of the reasons I invested in Neva is that the best reason you wouldn't invest, it's like, okay, let's assume it works. Let's assume people are concerned about privacy, want subscription search, but Google can just go,

hey, let's take a thousand engineers and a billion dollars and let's put them out of business. And guess what? They can't do that now because the antitrust cops are on the beat for the first time. Well, we hope. And so you're going to start to see more funding and more M&A. There's going to be more funding, more new startups, more M&A in the ad tech, social media, search, even computer hardware space in the next 24 months.

And it's going to be evidence of what a key component of capitalism competition is. And we're all going to look back and think, why the hell did we not break up these guys sooner? I don't know.

I got to kind of push back. You're skeptical? The empire is going to strike back. I think they are. I do. I think that we, you know, we're on the axle of politics that's going to mess up this whole thing. Like, look, it's going on in every bill in the Senate. Like, this is to their advantage. And they also are liked by people. It's going to be a much harder road to get to bring these people down in the way that they need to be. But it's already impacting business. There's an interesting thing, and that is a lot of people will argue that the value of antitrust isn't in actually the antitrust action. It's in

the scrutiny. And the fact that right now, Google, Facebook, and Apple, they're being very careful right now. It's already having an impact on the ecosystem. Yeah, fair to, that is a fair point. That is a fair point. You're 100% right. We'll see what goes on. And I think one of the things you mentioned last week, Lena Kahn being hindered only by courts.

And actually there was a big Bloomberg story saying exactly this thing is that really what's going to happen as happened in Europe and elsewhere is these companies go to court and they win because of more conservative justices or jurists. And so, that's really where the problem is. You know what I mean? Ultimately, they're going to win elsewhere. It's going to be a long slog and eventually those with money and means often win. So, we'll see where it goes. But I supported you that story because you just mentioned it off the top of your head because you were brilliant.

And you know who I think started a really robust social network? Who? Peloton. You keep saying that. I'm waiting. The passion and the demographic there and the engagement, I think they could start a, like, I think niche social media platforms are going to start to emerge. And I think Peloton's going to start the first fitness social. I think you mean niche streaming networks, too.

Niche streaming networks. It's sort of like old cable coming back. Anyway, that's a very good prediction. We'll see where it goes. We're going to be following that legislation very closely, for sure. And your prediction, I like yours. Yours is a little, I think I like yours more. Yours is that TikTok and Microsoft will talk about their benefit.

They're Ben and Jennifer thinking about getting back together. Isn't that great? Are you happy about that? Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck, for those who are not paying attention. And I don't want to speak to any of you. Do you think that's really them or is that their publicist dating? It's like neither of us have a lot going on professionally. They have a whole thing going on.

No, I don't think they're that cynical. Come on. Like, look, they've both been through the ringer, especially him, right? Like, he's like he is round after round of drinking and addiction he's john mcafee with better hair i would like to roll now that john is gone i would like to roll with ben affleck in vegas and he also who's he with before that beautiful actress anyway he um uh so anyway i am very happy i don't care if it's fake i like it i like the benifer i met him once you You know, he used to come to Ron Conway's Angel Investor things.

He was. I was talking to him. And I remember just sitting there, speaking to him, going, Jesus Christ, how did this guy get so looking? Good looking. Like, there are people this good looking? Yeah, he's very handsome. Him and Matt Damon were around the tech sector for a short amount of time. So I dealt with them quite a bit.

It didn't work out for them. In any case, they were trying to do all these different online things, online entertainment things. Didn't they make a shit ton of money on Uber and stuff? Didn't they make a bunch of money? I think it was Ashton Kutcher was in that one. Oh, Ashton, that's right. Ashton Kutcher. We're the new celebrities.

We are. Don't you get celebrities calling you talking about tech? No, just you. I already know a lot of celebrities. Go on. I really don't. I don't. But anyway, I don't pick up the phone either.

I need this to control you. I just control you. I just run quietly from behind the scenes. My dream is to control a 56-year-old Jewish professor with erectile dysfunction. Listen, McAfee, we got to go. We got to go now. I got things to do. I've got interviews to do. That guy knew do I've got that guy knew how to roll

that guy knew how to roll okay all right rest in peace my brother rest in peace all right a little bit of like a little bit of note he was had mental issues and we should all be feel bad about what happened to him anyway don't forget oops I did it again. Stop. That was good. That was good. That was good. That's why I make 40, 50 bucks an hour on this thing we call podcasting. I just want to say, I'm glad you're not wearing a cheerleader outfit while you do that. Anyway, don't forget if there's a-

You controlled me. You controlled me, you saucy man. I went to lunch in a place called Watch Hill, Rhode Island, and I got to view Taylor Swift's house from a long distance. Just so you know, that was my day. That is just wrong on so many levels. It's right many things you can't not see it it's enormous wrong and wrong it's like when i went to kenny bungport which is hugely overrated and went on a boat tour and they stopped for five minutes to look at the bush estate i'm like no the kennedy estate what's okay oh yeah yeah I'm like, what level of bad decisions put me on a boat with 400 tourists from Boston in front spying on the Bush compound? There was nobody spying on Taylor Swift.

I just drove by it. I just looked upon it. I love Taylor Swift. There's a song. It's called Holiday House. We approached it from the water side. Oh, no. I would do that.

I would not do that. No, I just drove past it. It's a lovely town. And it's been written about. It's the most expensive house in Rhode Island. I would not do that. No, I just drove past it. It's a lovely town and it's been written about. It's the most expensive house in Rhode Island. I'm not giving up any information. She wrote a beautiful song you should all listen to called Holiday House about it. And it was owned by a...

Britney Spears? Did she write her own music? No. Taylor Swift writes all her own music. Oh, Taylor Swift. You know what? It's Taylor Swift I'm talking about. Not Talia. She's doing rather well. And she's a wonderful artist. Anyway, people can disagree on her, but I love her. Anyway, Holiday House, you should listen to it. Don't forget, if there's a story in the news and you're curious about and want to hear our opinion on, go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show.

Scott, read us out. Today's show was produced by Rebecca Sinanis, Ernie Andretat engineer of this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify, or frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. If you liked our show, please recommend it to a friend. Thanks for listening to Pivot from Vox Media. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Who would the dog rather roll with in Vegas, John McAfee or Chuck Todd? The answer is yes. Support for this podcast comes from Anthropic.

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