Pivot - Hurricane Helene Aftermath, Trump’s Federal Election Case, and OpenAI’s Valuation

Episode Date: October 4, 2024

Kara and Scott discuss OpenAI’s huge new valuation, and Elon Musk’s “corporate puffery.” Then, in election news, a civil VP debate, and newly revealed evidence in the Trump federal election ca...se. Also, Elon Musk has been a Republican donor for far longer than we knew. Plus, the political and economics impacts of Hurricane Helene. Stay tuned for listener mail to hear Kara and Scott’s dating advice! Vote for us as Best Co-Host Team in the Signal Awards here! Follow us on Instagram and Threads at @pivotpodcastofficial. Follow us on TikTok at @pivotpodcast. Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or at nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:41 Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher, and Scott, I'm sorry for being late to our taping today. I apologize. So you want me to ask why and then you get to name drop? No, you don't. You don't have to. I'm just going to, you don't have to name drop. I apologize. I was taping another thing and I'm late to you, but I, you're always late. And so I, but not this late. That's a very sincere apology. I want to apologize. And you're always late. Yeah. Thank you for that. That was very meaningful and very heartfelt. Well, you flex and you do exercise. As people don't know, before we start the show, Scott always does like a manly exercise thing for all of us. It's very exciting for the team.
Starting point is 00:01:13 I didn't know you could see that. Oh, yeah. That's funny. The next thing I'm going to find out, I have an OnlyFans account that I didn't know about. I bet you could make some dough doing that. So where are you today? I just got back from San Francisco and Toronto. Oh, you're back. I was traveling. Oh, God. Yeah, I'm back. You must
Starting point is 00:01:30 travel at night. You're always not working. I do. I do. I go to, I'm open at O'Dark 100 hours tomorrow. I take the Paddington train, which I love, or the Paddington Express, Heathrow Express, which is fantastic. I love infrastructure. That's one thing I love about a government that spends too much money on taxes at a fair amount. I love the infrastructure that comes from that. And then I go to LA for my friends, Eddie Blau and David Frey's 50th birthdays, which I'm super excited about. I'm going to see my good friends, Kings, I'm going to see my good friends, Kings, Browdy, Flesh, all our fraternity friends and all their kids. And then I'm in L.A. I don't know if you heard, but I sold an original scripted drama to Netflix. Yeah, that's why I was waiting for you to go.
Starting point is 00:02:14 Yes. So you're going to do a development meeting? Now I'm in a writer's room. I don't even know what that means. It's like, do we have a bunch of people from Harvard in a room and like triumph the Spirak comic? There's snacks. There's snacks. There's snacks. I don't know what that means.
Starting point is 00:02:26 I'm super excited. I'm just going to go, well, I can't wait. I just hope. I just hope that someone who's in the union is there. And I'm just going to keep going. Well, AI says. I can't wait to just say that. Oh, you have to do that.
Starting point is 00:02:41 Every 15 seconds. Let me consult Claude. What? Let me consult Claude. We? Let me consult Claude. We're having trouble with this dialogue? Let me see what Claude says. Will you do that? I'll pay you $5 to do that.
Starting point is 00:02:52 There you go. And then I go back to New York. I'm hanging there for a while, which I'm really excited about. You and I are going to hang out. We're doing a fancy party with Joanna Coles or something? No, we're doing an interview. Who are we interviewing? She's interviewing us about our deep and abiding relationship.
Starting point is 00:03:08 Yeah, there you go. Yeah, it's going to be good. Actually, I went to, I did a lot of events, including one where everybody asked me about you, Scott. It was crazy. I appreciate that. In Toronto. Canadians love us, let me just say. Oh, you're in Toronto?
Starting point is 00:03:21 Yeah, I was. It's such a nice city, isn't it? It is. It really is. I was. It's such a nice city, isn't it? It is. It really is. I was there for a New York minute. Yeah. But I was actually mostly in San Francisco. I interviewed the four people running for mayor of San Francisco, which was interesting.
Starting point is 00:03:36 It was interesting for me. Oh, my God. Okay. And I interviewed Yuval Harari, who has a new book out about AI. Wow. And he wrote Sapiens. He's scary. I don't like listening to him about AI. He's scared of it. Really? Yeah, he's scared of it. A little bit scared of it. Yeah. But he was great. It was a
Starting point is 00:03:52 lot about historical stuff, though. That was his history of information system. He's a historian by training. So it was really fascinating. Did you know what the bestselling book of the Gutenberg age was? It was not science. It took 200 years for science books to really get out there. It was a thing called The Hammer of Witches. And it was a book about how to kill witches. And it was the best-selling, written by a crazy person named Heimrich. And I can't remember his last name. But everything in it resonates today. It was the very first QAnon document. And it was because of the Gutenberg printing press. That's what he was making the links between today's modern internet. Everything was conspiracy theories when printing
Starting point is 00:04:32 press started. And we don't remember that. And people died. 10,000 people were killed in these witch hunts because of this book. Anyway, just kind of interesting. Did you read Sapiens? I did. I had to because all the tech bros loved it. I liked it. I think it's outstanding. It is.
Starting point is 00:04:52 I had taken a lot of those courses in college, and so it was amazing when I would go around because all the tech bros loved it. They're like, did you know this about development of humanity? I go, I did. I took a college course. They hadn't taken history or anthropology or sociology, which was interesting,
Starting point is 00:05:09 but I thought he pulled it together beautifully. He's a, I was glad they read it. He's an impressive guy. He is. He's great. He's terrific. Anyway. Do you want to hear my Toronto story?
Starting point is 00:05:18 Sure, go ahead. So every year, my father, until recently, got something off his bucket list. And every year he picked the same thing. He wanted to go to Toronto to see Opening Night at the Air Canada Center of the Leafs versus the Habs, being the Montreal Canadiens. And for some reason, they have bagpipers at Opening Night of the Leafs. And they come out on the ice, and my dad just melts down and cries for some reason. Oh, wow.
Starting point is 00:05:42 Didn't cry when he left me and my mom, but he cries when bagpipers come out on ice. Well, bagpipers are very sad. That is very sad. And he does the same thing. And because he doesn't remember, he's done it every goddamn year, he goes, I got to take you somewhere special. And we get in a cab and we go to this place
Starting point is 00:05:56 and we walk down the street and he's like, grabs my hand, he's like, oh, yeah, just wait. And he points to this ragtag apartment building. He goes, look up three floors. See the air conditioner right there? And he's like, that's what you were conceived. And then waits for my reaction.
Starting point is 00:06:11 I'm like, I know. We've done this every year for five years, and it's still awkward. Have you done it this year? Have you done it this year? No, he hasn't been able to travel for years. So, but he loves. I can take you. Yeah, that goes from awkward to worse
Starting point is 00:06:25 I do love Toronto though I'd go to Toronto with you it's a great city yeah alright well they want us to come back there
Starting point is 00:06:31 and do stuff and I also went to Berkeley Haas school they really want us to go there oh how was that yes they thanked you
Starting point is 00:06:37 for your money they thanked you for your money it was great the students were fantastic I had a full house talk and stuff but they were like
Starting point is 00:06:43 when are we going to have Scott and Kara together here I said well Moneybags and I will come next year. Oh, Haas, it's changed my life. It's a business school. Generally speaking, this is very reductive. One of the nice things about Haas is that I think as someone who knows a lot of people in and around the business community, it attracts nice kids. Yeah, very, they really try and find kids who are humble, who maybe come from less economically advantageous backgrounds, who just kind of, you know, are crazy, crazy smart. And every time I go there, I'm just struck at
Starting point is 00:07:15 how the University of California manages and Berkeley manages to attract a really neat kid. They were. They want to do good. There was't, there was very little douchebaggery, none whatsoever. Really lovely kids, great questions. They're more, I think they're less like on the make
Starting point is 00:07:31 from other business schools, if that makes sense. There's a sort of You mean like a school that rhymes with Stanford? Yeah, yeah, that one.
Starting point is 00:07:38 But I think it's, I had a lovely time with these students, but they love you, Scott Galloway, I'll tell you that. I appreciate that. Thanks for signing. Yeah, we'll have to go there and students, but they love you, Scott Galloway, I'll tell you that. I appreciate that. Thanks for saying that.
Starting point is 00:07:45 Yeah. We'll have to go there and do some. State sponsored education. Change my life. California taxpayers. And they certainly are appreciative. The money that you've given is being split, right? Between.
Starting point is 00:07:54 I gave, I gave, I, it's a joint program. Thank you for asking. It's a joint program between UCLA and Berkeley to focus on continuing education, which is a fancy way of saying vocational programming. I wanted my money to go to something where there was no admissions. Anyone could just show up and say, I want to improve my life. And it would be free and it would be focused on jobs in the real economy, nursing, cybersecurity, construction. And it's the first of its kind in that the chancellors, Chancellor's Block and now Chancellor Lyons, it was Chancellor Chris, came together to do a joint program. It took us two years to figure it out. But I'm just super, it's like an overdue nod to California taxpayers who put me in the seat.
Starting point is 00:08:31 So has it started? We're admitting our quote-unquote first class of like 120 or 200 kids to the continuing education programs this year. But I love it because it's super unsexy and it has the things I want. I want free and I want it to be accessible and I want it to be focused on, I don't want to say young men, but young adults who aren't cut out for a traditional four-year liberal arts degree. Oh, we should do, let's do an event at both places where I'll interview about this. How about that? We'll do that. We'll like talk about it. They're both, have you spent much time at UCLA?
Starting point is 00:09:04 I have. I love it. It's beautiful. I mean, they're both just, they're just, they're both just, you walk around campus. Of course, I took my sons there and they're both like, I want to go to UCLA. And I'm like, well, just so you know, you're not getting in because I don't know if you've heard this. It's hard. It's hard. UCLA gets 155,000 applications a year now, admissions rate of 9%. And I do begrudgingly respect this. Both chancellors told me on the eve of my actual donation, they said, we just need to be straight with you. Your kids aren't getting in. It's actually more difficult now for the children of donors to get in. Yep, it is. And California just said there can't be legacy.
Starting point is 00:09:41 No legacy for the private schools. We'll talk about that. Yeah, we'll talk about that in a minute. Yeah. Anyway, they love you there. Thanks for saying that. What you did was a great thing. Anyway, today there's a lot we're going to talk about, political and economic impacts of Hurricane Helene. Our new evidence in the federal election case from Donald Trump.
Starting point is 00:09:58 Really disturbing evidence, actually. And not that it'll matter. And our listener question this week comes from someone who wants dating advice from me and Scott. That's not a good idea. But first... Just get her drunk. Ask her. Ask her. No, no, no, no, no, no. It's easy. Let's wait. Let's wait. Ask her if she has...
Starting point is 00:10:16 Hold that thought. What the relationship is like with her father. If she says anything positive, move along. Move along. All right. Okay. All right. First, the biggest VC deal ever, former nonprofit entity, OpenAI. And I say former, just pulled in $6.6 billion in its latest fundraising round, bringing in a valuation of $157 billion. Before this funding deal came through, OpenAI reportedly expected about $5 billion in losses a year on $3.7 billion in revenue. OpenAI is currently a capped profit company under the terms of this new investment round. It has two years to fully transform into a for-profit business, or its funding will convert to debt and obviously transform.
Starting point is 00:10:55 We talked about this a lot last week. In fact, they wrote me and said, just make sure Scott sees this. They seemed to like what you had to say. What does it mean for the rest of the AI market? I mean, it's sort of winners and losers at this point, right? This is a lot of money. The new Wintel is OpenVIDIA. OpenAI and NVIDIA control... OpenVIDIA. Oh, I like that. They control 70 and 92% of their markets, respectively. Just as technologies have a
Starting point is 00:11:22 zero to 60 time much faster now, the zero to duopoly or monopoly is happening. And I'm not sure, but I think NVIDIA may have even invested in this round. The thing that struck me about this round as someone who does these types of investments is obviously there were so many people looking to crowd into this round. I mean, a couple of things. So many people are trying to get into this round that the leads on it and the bigger investors, including Thrive, were able to create essentially different terms or a different class of stock. They have investment rights or pro rata rights that the other investors in the same round have. And that's really non-kosher and not cool because what you're doing is the whole idea of an investment in a round is that you're all taking a similar risk. And so when some investors get most favored nation status, in other words, they get better terms, that's really unusual. Because what an investor will ask you when you're raising money is they'll say, and I got asked this a lot because I was raising a lot of money in the 90s and 2000s, am I getting the same terms as every investor? every investor. Because what they don't want to find out is other investors were getting all sorts of additional sweeteners and thereby lowering the valuation. And they were the dumb money following the people who got a better deal. And these guys were able to pull that off. The other- Just to be clear, that's Joshua Kushner, who is the brother of the smart one. I would call him the smart one. Who's an outstanding VC in his own right. He is indeed. He absolutely is.
Starting point is 00:12:44 An impressive, lovely guy. Nice guy. He's the Kushner we like. The other one not so much. You know what? The other one was my student, and I think he's actually a really nice kid. And also, just to be fair, I don't think he gets enough credit for the Abraham Accords. I think that was actually a pretty bright spot in the Trump administration.
Starting point is 00:13:06 actually a pretty one bright spot in the Trump administration. Anyways, the other observation is that companies now, you just want to have a company worth 150 billion still private. But what's happened is because of there's so much capital now in the private markets, and these guys look at Google and they look at Meta and think as VCs, why did we let the main street get all of this upside? We'll just keep it private longer. And the employees and the CEO like it because they can have additional compensation. They can sell their shares. They don't have to do these pesky things called earnings and annals calls. So unfortunately, a lot of the upside has been transferred from retail investors to private institutional investors. You never would have had a company at $150 billion raising $6 billion in the private markets. And the bad news is that, again, it's another transfer
Starting point is 00:13:51 of wealth than the people who are already wealthy from the people. Google and Meta have made a lot of middle-class people a lot of money. But where do you... I'll give you an example, Airbnb. Where do you get in here? Airbnb is an amazing company, right? Amazing. Any retail investor who bought it on the first trading day of the IPO has lost money. Because what IPOs are becoming to a certain extent is the last stop when all the juice has been squeezed. When everyone around the table goes, you know what? No one's going to pay a higher price. I know. Let's go to stupid retail investors as opposed to a financing event. Anyway, thank you for my TED Talk. Yeah, I would agree. The rich get richer. I think that's what you're essentially saying.
Starting point is 00:14:31 So what does it mean for the rest of the market? I think it means that they're going to pull ahead, right? Or they now have the advantages they need to move forward. I'm fascinated by it. I've had an MRI. I uploaded my MRI. I'm up to see what they suggest, what kind of exercises I should do. I uploaded, I just had blood and urine tests done, and I uploaded the results to say, how should I change my diet and my lifestyle? I mean,
Starting point is 00:14:58 I am just, quite frankly, I'm just fucking fascinated by AI right now. And I think it's remarkable. You're asking all the questions. Scott is asking all the questions. You know what I did is I uploaded a bunch of our notes and our scripts. And I said, please put together a script for this week based on current events in tech and business. And then I went over to another and I said, try and attach a voice on it. And I'm trying to basically replicate Pivot and see how close we can get. Yeah. We've seen some bad versions of it. Oh, it's not, it's still awkward. The inflection, the humor, it's still very anodyne, but it really just starts to, it starts to blow your mind. But look, what is- It does. Someone I, when I was with
Starting point is 00:15:36 uploaded something like that, your stuff, and asked what she would ask Kara Swisher. And it was a dick joke. Or what do lesbians, no, it was what do lesbians do when they have sex? I think that was what came out of. That's the answer there. Does it involve Riverdale or strap-ons? Okay. Or movies about German shepherds?
Starting point is 00:15:56 That's what it knows of you. Does someone scream out Subaru? Subaru. And it is surprisingly accurate. That was good. Anyway, we're moving on. We're moving. I got to get out of this. That was we're moving on. We're moving. I got to get out of this.
Starting point is 00:16:06 All right. Another story. Tesla stock, though, was down 4% after posting its third quarter production deliveries report on Wednesday. The company global sales of cars and trucks rose a little bit, but fell short of Wall Street expectations. It was 6.4%. Deliveries increased by 28,000 compared to the same quarter last year. They've been cutting prices too. Plans to unveil its robo-taxi at a much-anticipated marketing event, pretending they're in the robo-taxi business. Meanwhile, Waymo is all over the streets of San Francisco and other states.
Starting point is 00:16:33 I don't know of demands coming back. I just think they're just a declining market share, right? Because there's competitors, essentially. So I'm sick of talking about Elon. Let's go back to lesbians. So I saw this data out of the UK, which I think you'll find interesting. Okay. Divorce rates among gay men, 24%. Divorce rates in heteronormative marriages, 44 to 48%. The data was unclear. Divorce rates among gay couples, lesbian couples. Guess what it is? Five percent. Seventy two. Whoa. Really?
Starting point is 00:17:11 So I thought it was fascinating. I'm writing, as you know, I'm writing a book on masculinity and I wanted to understand more about what happens when a man after. I got a lesbian divorce, but go ahead. After a divorce, men are four times as likely to kill themselves. In the few years after divorce, a man becomes eight times more likely to kill himself. Anyways, but so I started trying to figure out what factors bring divorce energy to a divorce. And it's mostly money. But also, I looked at this data and I said, do women bring divorce energy? And you can't make that assumption from the 24 to the 48, from the gay men to the heteronormative, because I think what's happened, and there's a lot of evidence of this. I find this shit fascinating.
Starting point is 00:17:52 I think you will, too. As women make more money, the ascent or the slope of the increase in their earnings has not been matched by the increase in domestic responsibilities that the male partner has taken on. In some marriage, on a lot of levels, day to day, for a lot of women, it's like, okay, I'm making as much or more money than you now. I'm as good a provider. And quite frankly, you're not picking up the slack. This is just too fucking much for me. And someone told me that, and I was like, that resonates. But where it falls down is that once you go to two women, the divorce energy is really, really high. What are your thoughts as a lesbian? Oh, wow. Well, today is my fourth anniversary with Amanda. So happy anniversary, honey. It happens to be today. Anecdotally, does that feel right or wrong?
Starting point is 00:18:46 I don't know. Some of them have been together long. Some have been, I think women are just, I think if they're unhappy, they move along and they don't like, it's easier for a man to stay in an unhappy marriage than a woman, I would imagine, right? Or in the case of gay men, they are much looser around their standards with each other, right? They have a little more. You mean they get it? They invite in third parties? Whatever. They totally get it. That's my experience with gay men is that they're more loose in their standards. And I'm not judging their standards. It's just that they don't get all twisted as much as straight couples do. In the case of lesbians, I don't know this. I didn't realize this.
Starting point is 00:19:24 When you say twisted, you mean about the notion of them having sex outside of the partnership. Yeah, like it's a little less, the expectations are lower, I guess. And again, I don't judge the expectations.
Starting point is 00:19:33 I think that straight people are really in a vice of expectation almost constantly because of movies, because of, you know, movies do a number on you people.
Starting point is 00:19:43 A vice of expectation. Kara Swisher, you are good. You have a good turn of phrase. I like number on you people. A vice of expectation. Kara Swisher, you are good. You have a good turn of phrase. I like that. Thank you. A vice of expectation. You may use it. But it's, I think they just,
Starting point is 00:19:52 I used to watch all these movies about straight people and the marriages. Actually, I just watched Nobody Wants This on Netflix, which is Adam Brody and Kristen, what's her name? Oh, she's fantastic. She was in Frozen. And it's about dating in Los Angeles. And I actually like it because it's honest about straight people dating a little bit more than Heather.
Starting point is 00:20:14 What were the takeaways? I'm fascinated by dating. I just, that people have these romantic ideas born by Hollywood that are not, you know what I mean, come true. It's Kristen Bell. Bell, yes. Oh, yeah, she's wonderful. It's a big hit. It's a huge hit right now, although I don't understand how someone could live in Los Angeles and not know what the word shiksa is as a Christian or whatever.
Starting point is 00:20:39 She's great. She's great. It's a really interesting and hard look at dating, but it's good, actually. But it's also delightful, and they're at dating, but it's good actually. But it's also delightful and they're beautiful people. So it's very attractive. You want to hear my Kristen Bell story? Okay, go ahead. You don't.
Starting point is 00:20:53 We're way away from Tesla. Go ahead. Yes, go ahead. Tesla, what the? Okay, he sucks. Tesla, blah, blah, blah. The company's overvalued. Boom, we're done with Tesla.
Starting point is 00:21:01 All right. So I went on Dax Shepard, Armchair Expert, which is like one of the 10 biggest podcasts in the world. And he and his co-host, I'm blanking on a name, super lovely, super nice. He and I were talking about working out and relationships and we really hit it off and he sent me a text message. So I'm like, oh my God, I'm friends with Dax Shepard. And my producer said, we got to get Dax on our podcast. And he agreed. And then that morning, I'd fucked up as I do often. And I forgot that my kid had a spring concert and I had to cancel on Dax like two or three hours
Starting point is 00:21:29 before he was due. And he wrote back, understood, but I need you to know I'm not going to do this again. I'm out. This was totally inappropriate, which I very much respect. And I'm so bummed. And I was too ashamed to like reach out and apologize. And it was Dax. I'm sorry. I still want to be friends. Why don't you text him back? Oh my God. I just blew it and I was too ashamed to reach out and apologize. Anyways, Dax, I'm sorry. I still want to be friends. Why don't you text him back? Oh, my God. I just blew it. I was just embarrassed.
Starting point is 00:21:50 Oh, come on. Say Kara made me text you back. I'm in the vice of expectations of heteronormative male friendship. Write him back. What is wrong with you? I don't know. Oh, my God. I don't know what's wrong with me.
Starting point is 00:22:02 You know what you... Instead of at me. Yes. Bad dad and bad friend in one swoop. You know what you, you know what is? That's going to upset me. Yes. Bad dad and bad friend and one swoop. You know what the problem is? I'm going to bring it back to Elon for one second. Puffery. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:11 Corporate puffery. Yeah, he just got off. I think it's embarrassment. Yeah, yeah, puffery. Tax. Let me back in. I'll be at the Beverly Hills Hotel for four or five nights. Well, that's because you're on different shelves.
Starting point is 00:22:20 And you, he's on a higher shelf than you. And you canceled on him. And someone on a lower shelf cannot cancel on a higher shelf person. It's just, and he's like, what the fuck? I'm in a higher shelf person. That's a little rough. A higher shelf? From a podcast point of view. I buy it. Dax's higher shelf. From a podcast point of view. But hold on. But other than having a bigger podcast, being much more handsome and much more talented and wealthy than me, how is he higher shelf?
Starting point is 00:22:47 Yeah, higher shelf. He just was like, you're wasting my time. Dax on a shelf? Elf on a shelf? Dax on a shelf? Yeah. I didn't handle that well, Kara. Yeah, I think you need to do this. We'll make a video for Dax Shepard. Look into the camera right now and say, Dax, I am so sorry. All right, hold on. Ready? Dax, I am so sorry. All right, hold on. Ready? Dax, I am so sorry. Boom!
Starting point is 00:23:11 That's what you call relationship repair. Evolved man in touch with his feelings. None of that lesbian divorce right over here. New way. Should we talk about Tesla? Should we talk about Tesla? No, no. I was just going to say, actually,
Starting point is 00:23:23 he did, a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit accusing Tesla and Musk of defrauding shareholders. The suit was centered around Musk's claim that Tesla's autopilot and full self-driving technology could drive safer than humans. The judge said the claims amounted to corporate puffery. I don't care about Elon. What is corporate puffery? Exaggeration, bullshit, spin, whatever these companies. Should he get off for this? He was pretty insistent. That's what I like to know. Exaggeration, bullshit, spin, whatever these companies. I mean, there's a- Should he get off for this? He did. He was pretty insistent. You know what? At some point, constant puffery becomes like small case fraud. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:23:54 When does it cross the line? But trying to predict when a technology is going to arrive, I can see him saying, look, I generally was hoping and thought it would arrive. The most interesting thing I think about Tesla right now is that we talk too much about Tesla. The auto company that's gotten it right for the last two or three years, it's not Tesla, it's Toyota. Because the biggest thing in auto over the last two years is a recognition by the public that it's not about EVs, it's about hybrids. And EV sales were up single digits and hybrid sales were up hugely double digits. And who did not get seduced by EVs, unlike Ford and General Motors, hoping to be more Tesla-like? Toyota. And Kia. Is that right? Kia has, I have a Kia hybrid. But basically,
Starting point is 00:24:42 consumers are waking up to the fact, let me get this. I get the benefits of electric without the need for charge stations, and I get at a lower cost. It's called hybrids. I think hybrids are, quite frankly, the future of auto, not EVs. And the consumer is responding. Oh, I think people will eventually get to EVs. I think it's one of these things that's going to go through that. But you're right. People are slowly moving that direction and they will then feel more comfortable
Starting point is 00:25:10 with EVs. I have a lot of people asking about EVs because I have one of each. Their sales are booming. And Toyota, I mean, just to give you a sense You make fun of my Kia Hybrid. I just want to know. Well, whatever. Just talk about your magic and play, you know, and pay for a Discover card and boom.
Starting point is 00:25:26 No third marriage for you. Yeah, hybrid. Sorrento. But get this. Toyota, which I believe is now growing faster than Tesla, has a price-to-earnings ratio of 9. Tesla is 72. I mean, price-to-sales, Toyota trades at 0.9 times sales. Tesla trades, depending on the numbers you're looking at, somewhere between seven and nine times sales. And they are making a better car that's more in tune with consumer demands right now, that foots better to how consumers want to interface with electric without the charging infrastructure nightmare. And it trades at a, one of these companies is under or overvalued.
Starting point is 00:26:05 Yeah. So one of the things they're working on is vertical lift and takeoff stuff too. Interesting. They're doing some- I see it. Yeah, VTOLs. Yeah. VTOLs. They're involved in that too. Anyway, they're a very smart company. But let's get to our first story. Voters are split 50-50 after Governor Tim Walz and Senator J.D. Vance faced off in a VP debate on Tuesday, according to a Politico poll. The two VP candidates discussed immigration, abortion, and other election talkings.
Starting point is 00:26:32 People kind of liked it. They said it was civil and interesting. Although there were some moments. During the conversation on immigration, moderators cut the mics of both candidates when Vance interrupted to say the hosts were not supposed to be fact-checking him per debate rules. He shouldn't have done that. He looked like an idiot. No, he looked strong there, Cara. No, he did not. He looked dumb. Like, just answer the question. He was wrong. They said they weren't going to fact-check, and that was fact-checking. No, they didn't quite say that. They didn't. It was none necessary.
Starting point is 00:26:58 They said at the beginning of the debate, we're not going to fact-check, and they fact-checked, and he called them out for it. No, lots of people didn't like that. Another standout moment. Vance refused to answer the question whether he believes Trump lost the 2020 election. This was a weak point, which Walt's called a damning non-answer. But also, again, it was honestly more civil than presidential debates. A lot of people were noting on that. Let's listen to a moment during the closing remarks. Well, I've enjoyed tonight's debate. And I think there was a lot of commonality here. And I'm sympathetic to misspeaking on things, and I think I might have with the senator.
Starting point is 00:27:31 Me too, man. Yeah, it was actually interesting. It sort of normalized J.D. Vance, who I think is a very dangerous character. But what are your overall takeaways? You go first. The biggest winner here was America. It demonstrated how our elected representatives are supposed to acquit themselves. They were respectful. They didn't interrupt each other a lot. I thought Margaret and Nora O'Donnell, Margaret Brennan, did a fantastic job. And it just made me feel better about being an American. And it contrasted the chaos and bullshit and childlike behavior that happens when Trump is in any room or in something like a debate. The next biggest winner was J.D.
Starting point is 00:28:10 Vance. He came across as very intelligent, reasoned, thoughtful. His agility around, I mean, you got to keep in mind, he's playing with a much worse hand than Walz. Walz can say to him, hey, does your boss believe that Biden won the election? And Vance was able to say, well, okay, first off, Hillary Clinton didn't believe there was election fraud. Give me some running room. He counters with Hillary Clinton did the same thing and censorship is worse. Okay, you're right. That is the mother of all false equivalences. Secretary Clinton showed up at the inauguration and she conceded, right? Censorship is fucking ridiculous in this red herring. Anyone who claims censorship won't shut the fuck up and has a top podcast and is everywhere. But I got to give it to the guy. He took chicken shit and made it mostly chicken salad.
Starting point is 00:29:08 And given the hand he's been dealt, he did really well. I thought Wall's started off shaky, got better. They both cemented their brand as Wall's brand is likable. And he was very likable. And Vance's brand is intelligent. And he came off as very intelligent. And the big winner here, other than America, was Vance. Because quite frankly, coming out of this debate, Vance, in my view, is probably the top contender for the GOP nomination in 2028.
Starting point is 00:29:37 I think you saw the future of the Republican Party. Yeah, I do. You know, he lies a lot, just more deftly. I'm sorry. There's several lies he told. And that's not a good thing. So he managed to normalize his lies. And I don't know if that's a positive thing. He's certainly a serious contender. There is no question about that. And I think he acquits himself well. He's still a creepy person who has an issue with women. It's a real, which he didn't let out. He didn't show that, he didn't take the mask off on that thing. But some of his other comments
Starting point is 00:30:12 are disturbing. If you go back in any interview, they're disturbing in the extreme. We were talking about the debate. I agree with you. Yes, but the reason I'm saying it's disturbing is that he also is very good at masking himself
Starting point is 00:30:24 as a normal person. And he's not normal. Doesn't every politician have to do that? Who the fuck would want to do this? When I look at some of these, you've got to go back and look at these interviews, Scott. They're disturbing. Nobody talks like this. No, I've seen them.
Starting point is 00:30:36 And so I think he's able to normalize his very dark view of humanity in a way that, you know, I like, if he wasn't such a dark character, I would say this was a really nice civil thing. And every politician lies, but he manages to take anything where there's a false equivalency and try to really, he cannot miss a moment of lying, like about something. Like he just can't admit anything very much. He can't say, yes, this is a problem. No, this is... And I would like our public officials to say, I made a mistake or that, yes, this was wrong.
Starting point is 00:31:15 He cannot do that as a person. Yeah, but what is he going to say? I hate my mother and as a result, I'm a deep, dark misogynist and I'm supporting a guy who I generally think is the American Hitler. I mean, I agree with everything you've said. He was very good. Yeah, he was. No, he is really good. I still don't think it matters in any way whatsoever. And I, but I do think it sets him up for the future.
Starting point is 00:31:36 It's already out of the news cycle. It was, you know what it was? It was mostly, it was a split decision. A split decision amongst the VP debate is pretty much a nothing burger. Right, exactly. So, and it doesn't really matter. But I do, you do have to see who's going to, you know, as you say, the actuarial tables show that this guy might be president. So that's why we're paying attention to him, right? Because Donald Trump is old. And obviously, speaking of which, addled beyond belief, this last speech he gave.
Starting point is 00:32:04 And finally, the Washington Post wrote about it very you know they wrote about it with Joe Biden all the time Donald Trump
Starting point is 00:32:10 it wasn't just a crazy word salad that he usually is there's something happening to him cognitively that is very I don't know
Starting point is 00:32:19 what it is but it was really pronounced this past week and it's he's either drugged or something is gone wrong. And it's not his usual cup of crazy.
Starting point is 00:32:28 Anyway. Nothing's gone wrong. It's called being 78. And with a history of Alzheimer's in your family, I kept thinking, what is happening to this guy's words? Anyway, and I think we should call it out because I called out for Biden. I think Donald Trump is cognitively disabled.
Starting point is 00:32:42 So we have some, so this guy might be president. That's all I'm saying. That's why it matters. So we also have some new evidence. This is interesting. This just dropped last night in the 2020 election case against Donald Trump, unsealed by a judge on Wednesday revealed special counsel Jack Smith's outline of the former president's desperate attempts to overturn the 2020 election, which has been reported, but some of it was
Starting point is 00:33:02 not, which was interesting. He kind of put it together in a timeline. Smith emphasized that Trump's scheme was a private criminal effort and that he's acting as a candidate, not a president. He needs to do that because of the Supreme Court decision that presidents have immunity for official acts, but not private acts. One of the things was when he was told about the danger to Mike Pence, he said, so what? And then another point he went by, aides kind of had it with his non-reaction. They left the dining room he was throwing ketchup in, and he started writing very dangerous tweets about Mike Pence that put him in direct danger.
Starting point is 00:33:38 And this is when he was cogent. Do you think this matters that this came out? Do voters care? I think it's add to the list of things. Nobody cares that this guy's a criminal, I guess. hunting down our elected representatives, and I saw them cowering in the rafters, in the rotunda. I thought it was arguably the most shameful day we've had. I agree. Maybe since the Japanese internment, I thought, we have lost so much moral authority. And I mean, it just was so, it was so deeply, I don't think of myself as someone who's, I don't know, like a student of the Constitution. I found it so deeply rattling.
Starting point is 00:34:29 And that he's watching it like it's a sport and egging these people on. much they either, their sycophantry can override their sense of justice and right and wrong, or that things are so bad for so many Americans that they will accept this in exchange for someone they think is going to burn it all down. But that to me was absolutely the low point in America for the last, I don't know, 40 or 50 years. And it just showed me I have no political instincts because I thought that's it. I thought he was going to have this historical record, right? You need to have it said what he did so that even if they don't care, it doesn't matter. He did it.
Starting point is 00:35:32 Like he said, so what? He sat in that dining room, addled on whatever the fuck he takes, all the different things, and ketchup, and put someone in danger. This is someone who's a sociopath, as far as I can tell. And that's what I read it. I was sort of like, what is sociopathic behavior? And I think putting the timeline together, no matter what, will follow this man into his grave, right? This kind of stuff, he may not pay for himself.
Starting point is 00:35:59 I think it's critically important that this is laid out. There's so much stuff he's done and others have done that have not, like the stuff in Ukraine, the antics, you know, that Rudy Giuliani did. Why isn't Rudy Giuliani in jail for criminal acts, right? And so I think that we'll follow these people to the ends of the earth to put it down. But I agree with you. I don't know if it matters. I think people, everyone's like, everything's baked in. And I'm like, that is a sick indictment of this country if everything is baked in and it doesn't matter what he does. But I thought it's worth reading this. I don't know if it'll matter or voters care
Starting point is 00:36:34 or have already figured this out that he did this and have decided they don't care. And the ones that care, care, right? And so we'll see where it goes. But I think it's important to lay it all out and to act like we're a nation of laws and not men. So we'll see. We'll see. And I think the Internet, speaking of we're not remembering the vice president debate, we're not remembering the assassination attempts. We're not remembering the like everything goes through in this fast moving way that
Starting point is 00:37:01 we've that it's just like it is like a television show. And you're like next on this thing. So maybe it'll be next, but it matters, I think. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. We haven't talked about it. And take a listener mail question about dating goals where you could make your joke, Scott. Scott. crazy world, you might want to subscribe to the Washington Post. Right now, you can go to WashingtonPost.com slash pivot to subscribe for just 50 cents a week for your first year. The Washington Post offers substantial and considered coverage on a huge number of topics. The paper can be a great place to find thoughtful stories about Capitol Hill, the economy, climate change, and so much more. I've had a subscription to the Washington Post since I've been in college, and I love it. I worked there too, by the way, full disclosure, a long time ago.
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Starting point is 00:41:11 That's anthropic.com slash CLOD. Scott, we're back with our second big story, the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which is now the second deadliest hurricane of the century behind Katrina. Here's a look at the situation by numbers. Right now, there are at least 180 dead and 100 still missing. $160 billion of economic damage so far, according to AccuWeather. Tower communities have been destroyed. More than a million are still without power. Tens of thousands are without running water.
Starting point is 00:41:44 The Biden administration has deployed over 5,000 National Guardsmen and 1,000 active duty troops. Biden visited the Carolinas Wednesday. Kamala Harris was in Georgia. Donald Trump visited Georgia earlier this week in his campaign, set up a GoFundMe account. All right, sure. Aside from the obvious political tragedy, I mean, obvious weather tragedy, this is a political situation. And not just because there are two swing states involved, North Carolina and Georgia. Donald Trump quickly spread misinformation. And what a surprise. He claimed that Georgia Governor Brian Kemp couldn't get in touch with Biden in the aftermath of the storm. Both Biden and Kemp disputed that. He also took credit for asking
Starting point is 00:42:21 Elon Musk to get Starlink access to damaged areas. FEMA tweeted in response, this is already happening. Elon backed President Trump's version of events, but of course he would. But talk, and of course, Trump disaster response has usually been terrible. Talk a little bit about this from a political point of view, but also the devastation here and the photos are just disturbing in the extreme what's happening there. And people thought they were safe in certain parts of the country, like Asheville. They thought they were climate safe, and they certainly were not from these rising rivers. Any thoughts? Yeah, well, you touched on it. So if you believe in science and think that science
Starting point is 00:43:04 is kind of the best ideas we have and maybe the closest to an actual truth, the waters have heated up one degree centigrade or I think it's about, moving inland and affecting areas, including Asheville, that just aren't weather ready. When you're in Florida, whether it's hurricane windows, I mean, I don't want to say you're prepared, but you know, eventually, if you're living in Florida, you're going to have to deal with this. And you make preparations, whether it's insurance, whether it's the quality of your roof or whatever it is, or a generator. I spent a bunch of time and money thinking on alternative energy supplies if our power goes out. So this is just, the fact that we politicize this and don't want to just look at the data is just going to create more and more severe weather events. struck me, and it's true and tragic, is that Americans are very, or excuse me, humans are very adaptable. And we're just getting used to this shit, and we shouldn't be getting used to it. Now, on a political stage, we're talking about all this stuff that we like to control, the VP debate, the convention, the bump. The three things, or one of three things that'll probably
Starting point is 00:44:22 decide this election, given that it's in the margin of error right now, are one of three things that'll probably decide this election, given that it's in the margin of error right now, are one of three things or two of those three. And that is, who is perceived as having the better response to Hurricane Helena, Helene, excuse me, to Hurricane Helene? Like if Biden and Harris can be seen down there with a FEMA jacket and looking strong and bringing people together, or if it's kind of George Bush's Katrina event where he just looks like an idiot having appointed his political buddies who just fucked up left and right. Yeah. Great job, Brownie. Remember that? Yeah, great. Brownie's doing an amazing job. And then two, the Longshoremen strike. This is probably, I would argue, the one that might jump up and bite one or both of them in the ass.
Starting point is 00:45:07 Because it feels to me awfully opportune that these, that longshoremen have gone on strike. I do believe they deserve a raise. I think they're in a position of leverage, which I respect and appreciate. But if this thing starts costing the economy $5 billion a day, does Biden step in? Does he show strength? Does he show empathy? Is Trump able to make political hay? There's some rumors.
Starting point is 00:45:30 Well, the head of the Longshoremen is a- Is a Trumper. Trumper, yeah. But is that going to be good? Could that backfire? If Biden steps in and says, you know, fuck yourself. You're not going to fuck with the economy and forces everyone back to work. That is a big issue.
Starting point is 00:45:43 And then the third wild card is what's happening in the Middle East, and that is Israel's response to Iran and who gets credit or non-credit for that. But I think one of those three issues or more than one of those three issues is going to determine the election at this point. So these are news events that matter, I guess, because everything else sails by in like a... You know, you have your plan and then God laughs. God is laughing at the presidential election with these three events.
Starting point is 00:46:08 It's a toss-up. Someone is going to get a lot of credit or a lot of blame for one or more in terms of their approach and how they address one or more of these three issues. You know who actually was down there first? Jose Andres with food. Incredible. He should be president, honestly. That's a shame. I didn't know that.
Starting point is 00:46:23 World Central Kitchen was the first group down there over everybody. I didn't know that. Feeding people, yeah. What an organization. What are your thoughts? Do you think that one of these three... I don't know why Trump tried to politicize it right at the beginning. It was grotesque, but that's any other Tuesday with Escafela. What's that? Any other Tuesday with Escafella? I, you know, I agree with you. I think this idea that, you know, what was interesting was people moved to Asheville and I know a lot of, I love Asheville. It's a beautiful town. But they used to say, I'm moving here because it's a climate haven. They did. I've heard, I've been there and, you know, here's where it's safe, where it's going
Starting point is 00:47:00 to be safe against climate change. You're not safe anywhere around climate change. You just are not. And the second part is, to me, climate change is really going to be the interesting thing over the next couple of years because I was just reading an interesting story about insurance rates now in California and Florida. They're not insuring. They're just stopped insuring. And so some people have stopped doing insurance in these places or having insurance. Well, I can't get insurance where I have- Right, you can't get it. That's the other thing, right? And so to me, that was an opportunity for,
Starting point is 00:47:32 I hate to say this, Gavin Newsom and Rhonda Santos to get together, right? And come up with something to self-insure or whatever. But it certainly, there's all kinds of opportunities to come together, right? In these things like Jose Andres in World Central Kitchen, he feeds everybody. He doesn't care who you vote for. Or it's an opportunity to split people up. I think people do respond to people who are going to bring people together and solve problems. And so I think people are desperate for problem solvers, not divisiveness. And so whoever does that best here finds a way
Starting point is 00:48:05 to settle with this long Sherman, who I think is just, I'll tell you why he offended me. He's like, my guys will do this. I'm like, they're not your fucking guys, right? You know what I mean? He does. I know Indian people talk like that. He's not in charge. He's not the king. He should try to find the best deal for the constituents he works for, right? But of course, it's all cynical with this guy. And so if I were his constituents, I'd be pretty pissed that he's doing this. Well, I think they've been offered a 52% raise, but the WGA was able to extract 5% for their riders.
Starting point is 00:48:35 Right, yeah. He's already gotten 52%. He's rejected that deal and said, no, I want 77. Well, it just- And he's gonna, they're probably, you know what? They're within striking distance. I think they're probably going to solve this thing. Yeah, I hope so. I just find this guy
Starting point is 00:48:50 offensive because of the way he talks. I was listening to him give a speech. But again, the ridiculous request that makes no sense is we want to put the technology back in the bottle. We want no automation. It's like, sorry, boss. No, forget it. Sorry, boss. You're going to take what everybody else is going to take. Anyway, well, you know, let's see what AI says.
Starting point is 00:49:09 I can't wait for you to do that. Can you tape it, please? Can you do that? It's going to be great. Please tape it with one of those jiggly cameras for us. Anyway, what's happening there? One of the things that is good and bad about the Internet is so many pictures coming through, and it's devastating, and people and stories and things like that. But there are some organizations you can check out that are providing help in states affected by Helene. World Central Kitchen, as I said, Jose Andres, what an amazing man he's become with this effort. AmeriCare's Operation Airdrop, the Humane Society, and many more. So please give if you can. It's, they're really suffering there.
Starting point is 00:49:49 Okay, Scott, let's pivot to a listener question. This question comes in via email. I'll read it. Hi, Kara and Scott. I work remotely and recently went through a breakup. Currently, I live in North Carolina, but I'm considering moving. As a 30-year-old ambitious man, I'm looking to maximize my dating prospects and increase my earning potential. Should I think about relocating closer to my company's headquarters in Florida to build stronger
Starting point is 00:50:16 work relationships, or should I challenge myself by moving to New York City and maybe a medium-cost city like Austin or stay here where I can save more and leverage my six figure salary to invest in the stock market and real estate. For context, I work in finance sales. I am a non-white straight male. Looking forward to your thought. Best, Andres. Oh, Andres. I hope you're in a safe part of North Carolina. What do you think, Scott? What do you think without making a dirty joke? Thanks, Scott. What do you think without making a dirty joke? Yeah, that's the last part of this hard part. Okay, Andres. So mating is like any other market and you want to go where there's more demand than supply for what you're offering. You're, so let's just start with the basic. You're a male. There are certain cities, basically cities attract more women than men. And the reason why after my divorce, I immediately bought places in New York and South Beach, is there are a lot more quality women than quality men. And so a five gets to date a seven. So by virtue of just moving to a city, most cities, especially the coastal cities,
Starting point is 00:51:22 you have somewhat of an advantage. And in a place like New York or Miami, it is champagne and cocaine for men. Talk to women about dating. Their misery in Miami and New York, quite frankly, is your disco. Now, having said that, what trumps all of this, what trumps all of this in your 30s is nothing increases your attractiveness and increases your potential selection set of mates than economic security. Women are attracted to men for three reasons. Number three, reverse order, how kind they are. Women long-term want someone who's going to be good to them and to their family, too. Intelligence.
Starting point is 00:51:58 If you're smart, you're more likely to make good decisions for the tribe and make good decisions for the family and her kids will survive. And then number one, whether you like it or not, there's a ton of evidence, is your ability to signal resources. Women go through a period in their lives where they are bearing children and they need a guy with resources to ensure their kids survive. So what you want to be focused on in your 30s
Starting point is 00:52:20 is killing it professionally. So get to headquarters because at headquarters, you will accelerate 30 to 40% faster than someone who is not at headquarters. So take all the bullshit I said about cities out of the equation. In your 30s, you want to be sexy. No matter where you are, make a shit ton of money.
Starting point is 00:52:39 You're going to make more money at headquarters. Yep. Okay, good. I would agree with you. I think living in North Carolina and being remote, it sounds like a very bad prescription for meeting anybody. I had a relative, I'm not going to go into it in detail, a younger relative who was living in Missouri. I advised him to get the hell to Atlanta, and he did, and he's married, and he's very happily married now. I don't think, you know, if you're in a remote area by yourself as a young single person,
Starting point is 00:53:15 especially a man, in an area that doesn't have a lot of prospects, you're going to have any prospects. You're going to have a lot of money. You're going to have a lot of cash, but what are you going to do with it? You probably drink that money, you know, essentially, or do whatever. probably drink that money, you know, essentially, or do whatever. So I think you should move. It's like, everything shouldn't be a monetary decision. Lean into your advantage. That's right. And if you make a six-figure salary, you'll be fine no matter where you are. And so, you know, and you're also happier with someone. There's, you know, honestly, there's just no question. Move, move, move, move. I don't know if you should move to headquarters or a cool city, but either way, you'll do well. I don't, you know, Scott and I are not all plus on remote work, even though both of us do it, interestingly. But we have established families already.
Starting point is 00:53:57 I think later in your life, you could do remote work. When you're younger, don't do remote work. Get into the office or get into the whatever. When you're younger, don't do remote work. Get into the office or get into the whatever. Once you have money and relationships, remote work's an unlock. If you don't have a partner and you haven't made a lot of money, the office is a feature, not a benefit. Get into the office.
Starting point is 00:54:21 Yeah, later you can leave and ignore people like we do. Anyway, Andres, thank you so much. And good luck. Good luck. Tell us when you get married okay if you've got a question of your own and you'd like answered send it our way go to nymag.com slash pivot submit a question for the show or call 855-51-pivot all right scott one more quick break we'll be back for predictions from you i know you're in the prediction mode as the year ends. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see?
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Starting point is 00:56:03 What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive? Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam, but he fell victim and we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to work together to protect each other. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. Thank you. Trust Center, all powered by Vanta AI. Over 8,000 global companies like Atlassian, Flow Health, and Quora use Vanta to manage risk and provide security in real time. Get $1,000 off Vanta when you go to vanta.com slash pivot. That's vanta.com slash pivot for $1,000 off.
Starting point is 00:57:22 Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Virgin Atlantic. Hey, Carrot, Scott. Remember me, the guy, the Tina Fey, your Alec Baldwin sort of rejuvenated your career. Anyways, I'm in the lounge at Heathrow. I'm at the Leithrow, the Virgin Lounge, the Virgin Atlantic Clubhouse Lounge,
Starting point is 00:57:38 and I'm about to have the chicken tikka masala. I love it here. You should check it out. It's where the cool kids hang out. Anyways, hope you're all safe travels. Scott, frankly, it's a miracle that Virgin Atlantic let you into the clubhouse and their incredible business class. But I guess they did. Tell me how it was.
Starting point is 00:57:55 So, Cara, I'm an original gangster when it comes to Virgin. I've been flying Virgin for 20 plus years. And I do the same thing. And they get it right every time. They always have the financial times for me. And I ordered the chicken tikka masala. And that is my virgin experience. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And your drink was? What is your drink? Well, I used to drink a Bloody Mary or a beer in the clubhouse. I don't drink alcohol when I travel anymore, so I just do mineral water. But they have this kind of cool cocktail that's like a lemongrass or some sort of cool margarita thing, and I get a virgin one.
Starting point is 00:58:34 What is your pre-flight routine? What is your actual, besides your chicken tikka masala, the virgin clubhouse? My pre-flight routine is, well, I always do the same thing in the morning when I travel. I try and work out. I take the dogs for a walk. And I always make time for the clubhouse because I do enjoy the Virgin Clubhouse at Heathrow. So check out virginatlantic.com for your next trip and see the world differently. Certain amenities are only available in selected cabins and aircraft. Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction.
Starting point is 00:59:06 Do you have any predictions? Oh, hmm. I do. I had an interesting discussion. When you travel, you talk to people and you sort of start to hear their views and stuff like that. And I know all our focus is on the election right now. I think a lot of people are really leaning in and paying attention to the election. But I do think, I think there is a quiet group of women in this country, the way there was a quiet group of Trump supporters. And I am, maybe I'm wrong, but I'm convinced that the election will be not as close as people think it is. You know who agrees with you? I think she's going to win. Who? Bill Maher. Oh, does he?
Starting point is 00:59:45 Interesting. He made a prediction. He said he thinks that Vice President Harris is not only going to win, but she's going to win decisively. I think it's going to be women. Women vote.
Starting point is 00:59:55 I think there's a lot of focus on young men and what do they do. They never go to vote. They're lazy. They're lazy. And I think women are motivated. And every woman I talk to is doing something, whether it's raising money or whatever. And so I really, I don't know. I could be really wrong. But I think that Trump's grip is a lot less strong than people think. I think everything's, just as everyone lets him get
Starting point is 01:00:25 away with shit, all his supporters, I think everyone has had enough. He's got as many, he's got a ceiling and he's reached it. And that's my feeling. Anyway, it is, of course, about turnout and the turnout for the, as much as Elon Musk is giving him money, I don't think they have as good a turnout as the Democrats, but we'll see. All right, Scott, do you have a prediction? I do, you inspired one. So I think we're about to undertake or we're beginning what I'd call the great rotation.
Starting point is 01:00:55 And that is if since 2008, the capital flows, the market dynamics of Trump individual performance. So you'd rather be a mediocre stock in America right now than a really good company and good stock in Argentina, because every year since 2008, capital flows have flown basically leaked out of everywhere and into the U.S. than any market in the world. And with the Chinese market actually ripping up last week, I think since the beginning of September, they're up more than 30%. I think the starting gun has been fired. And that is the US market as a ratio of how it trades relative to other markets has not seen these highs since 1999 or 2007. And with Chinese stocks making a comeback, with the stimulus announced, with a bunch of people getting their greed glands going, ETFs have surged or capital flows into China have surged, but it's going to lift stocks in places
Starting point is 01:01:57 like China, places like Brazil, and you're going to have a rotation back into kind of emerging or what you would call developing markets. And some, I think that markets outside of the U.S. are going to outperform the U.S. over the next three to five years. Oh, that's interesting. Oh, that's a good one. I just come up with that one on the top of your head. That was good. That was helpful. Good. I'm glad. Very helpful. It's a good prediction. That's why I'm here. How is your predictions deck going, by the way, speaking of predictions? When's that coming up? It's just so discouraging. Last year, I would loosely describe my predictions as wrong.
Starting point is 01:02:30 I just shit the bed on everything. I got almost everything wrong. Oh, did you? I love when you talk about that, though. We'll go over that with your bed. Everything. Just literally everything. Was I right then?
Starting point is 01:02:40 I forget what you predicted. You have much better political instincts than me. That's correct. Most people realize that. My wife, Amanda's like, yeah, Scott was great on Beto. Oh, then he was... That's the only mean thing she says about your political predictions. Well, whatever. It's really sad to me because there's only a one in four chance I'm going to get to see Amanda again, according to these divorce statistics.
Starting point is 01:03:00 Oh, stop it. What are we having? That's good. We're not getting a divorce. I am never getting into it. I just assume lesbians on a regular basis cry and hug for three hours and decide never to see each other again. Is that wrong? Is that wrong? No. You know what? In general, not everybody for sure, but mostly lesbians get along with their exes. A lot of straights don't. Not you necessarily. Yeah. You get along with Megan. Megan, yeah. She lot of straights don't. Not you necessarily. You get along with Megan.
Starting point is 01:03:26 She's coming for Christmas. Yeah. No, it's great. My little kids love her. She's a lovely person. And, you know, there were issues, but I think we've done a nice job trying to really especially. I told you I met your ex-wife, right? No.
Starting point is 01:03:40 How? What? No. I was at a conference in Germany or something. I was speaking. I don't know. And I What? No. I was at a conference in Germany or something. I was speaking. I don't know. And I talked about Amazon. She came up to me and she's like, you are not giving Mackenzie Bezos enough credit for
Starting point is 01:03:50 starting Amazon. Oh. And I'm like, and I look at her and I'm like, and I'm like, oh, do you have a background in technology? She's like, yeah. And I was the CTO of America. I'm like, oh my God. Were you married to Kara Swisher?
Starting point is 01:04:03 Anyways, your ex-wife. She didn't lead with that. She didn't lead with that. She didn't lead with that. Your ex-wife came up and reprimanded me after my talk. She's good at that shit. She's a real, someone who really supports women in technology. And that's her thing. If you said anything crossways, you'd have been like, she'd have come at you.
Starting point is 01:04:22 She's a tall lady, right? She's tall. She's a big lady and everything. That's an impressive woman. Yeah, she is. She you. She's a tall lady, right? She's tall. She's a big lady and everything. That's an impressive woman. Yeah, she is. She is. She's great. Yeah. Yeah. Come for Christmas at the Lesbians Who Get Along Club. Yeah. I'm not getting a divorce. Okay. I'm going to South Africa. You are? Yeah. Oh, nice. Taking my sister for her 50th to Africa. No, we're going to San Francisco and we're going to have a great time. Yeah, we always do. I win. I win on that one. Cape Town.
Starting point is 01:04:45 No, we love it there. Cape Town over San Francisco. I win. No, no. We're not escaping. Have you been to Cape Town? Have you been to Cape Town? No, but we don't need to escape ourselves.
Starting point is 01:04:52 The most beautiful city in the world. We like ourselves. You mean explore the world while we still can? We don't need a beautiful... Anyway, in any case, I'm going to come up for Christmas with you at some time. Anyway... I hate the holidays, just so. Anyway. I hate the holidays. Just so you know.
Starting point is 01:05:06 I hate the holidays. That's why you're escaping what I just said. But exactly what I just said. Yeah. God. In any case, Scott, we'll all have a Merry Christmas. I'm excited to hear your predictions for the year and, you know, your assessment of what you got wrong. Okay.
Starting point is 01:05:17 That's the show. Before we go, we're up for the best co-host team in the Signal Awards. I don't know what that is. Really? I didn't know about that. Who are we up against? I don't know what that is. Really? I didn't know about that. Who are we up against? I'm watching the competition. Let's find out, but we deserve it.
Starting point is 01:05:29 Vote for us at the link in the description. And again, Dax Shepard, I extend my apologies to you on Scott's behalf. You call me all the time. Didn't mean it, Dax. Didn't mean it. You kind of meant it. I want to work out with that guy. That guy's ripped.
Starting point is 01:05:44 No, he's not working out with you. He's definitely not working out with you. That guy's so ripped. Anyway, we'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot and I'm certain more news. Scott. Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Christine Driscoll. Ernie and Todd Enscher knew this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Mia Severio.
Starting point is 01:06:02 Mishak Kerouac is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you're subscribed to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

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