Pivot - Impeachment number 2, Airbnb cancels DC reservations, and rebranding America

Episode Date: January 15, 2021

Kara and Scott talk about the second impeachment of Donald Trump. They also discuss a roundup of more businesses and platforms banning Trump his alt-right supporters. Airbnb is cancelling its DC area ...reservations ahead of next week's inauguration. In listener mail, Kara and Scott answer how to save America's brand. And a prediction on the consumer economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:19 hi everyone this is pivot from new york magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. Scott, you're so calm. Hungover. Oh, okay. What, did you have a second impeachment party or what? Something like that. And I'm running a little slow today. Are you? You're going to have to carry this, Kara. It's going to be like every other show. Oh, don't tell me that. So, Scott, may I say that you got the COVID vaccine? Am I allowed to do that?
Starting point is 00:01:46 Probably not. But let's just say educators were put on the list in New York. And I think vaccines are an absolutely wonderful thing. I think it's humanity and science and truth coming together. So I think it's absolutely wonderful. Well, I'm only asking because I think everyone should get it. And I think educators and everyone should talk about how good it is to get it and how helpful it is. Tell me about the process because most of us have not gotten it yet. No, it's pretty easy. You go onto the website,
Starting point is 00:02:13 you fill out a survey. And in this instance, there was some confusion because we weren't sure professors were going to be included in the category of educators. But then it came out, I guess on Monday, I guess it's the union that's very strong here, or they got the K through 12, and then someone in the health department made the observation that professors, generally speaking, are much older and typically speak sometimes
Starting point is 00:02:36 in front of hundreds of super spreaders, not 10 or 20 eight-year-olds, so that they were actually more vulnerable. I got a note from the chief operating officer at Stern saying, profs are now included. I immediately went to the website, filled out the survey, got a QR code, went to this makeshift school in Bushwick. Never been to Bushwick before.
Starting point is 00:02:57 I feel much younger and much hipper. I'm going to grow a beard and get a nose ring. It's God in Bushwick. Got some ink, got some ink, had a Pabst. And it was just, I, look, I thought it was inspiring. And it was, I'm just very, I'm grateful that there are so many smart people all pursuing the truth, all pursuing how to, how to better humanity. It felt very apolitical, which was nice. Yeah I got to be honest, Kara, I feel liberated. I feel a little bit guilty. I feel like I have a little bit of survivor guilt because I
Starting point is 00:03:30 feel as if I'm healthy, but unfortunately- Well, it's a process of vaccinating people and educators are on the list. I'm coming up soon. I'm coming up soon on the list. And what I would tell everybody is I would have never known this, but I have been all over this and called my in-laws and said, you need to get vaccinated right away. And they said, oh, where we're going to? And I'm like, no, no, no, go on the website right now. Right.
Starting point is 00:03:51 And schedule an appointment. Right. And anyways, I don't think I felt this good and this optimistic in a long, long time. Right. And I think that this represents our best of humanity. I think a lot of people deserve a lot of credit for this. So, look, it's the most kind of what I'll call the most wonderful thing I've participated in a long time.
Starting point is 00:04:11 And I'm very grateful to New York State, to the health department. And it was smooth. It was a smooth process because we talked about how hard it is around testing unless you had some dollars. You know what I mean? Like the confusion. It was an easy process for you. Super easy. Even though there's controversy in New York
Starting point is 00:04:27 around some of the vaccination programs. Well, I think rightfully so. You know, I went through a bunch of guilt, like, should I wait? But anyways, I think everyone has an obligation once that they are legally eligible to go get that goddamn vaccine as soon as possible. And you take a second one, correct?
Starting point is 00:04:46 Yeah, I'm supposed to come back February 8th, and I got the Moderna vaccine, which is a messenger RNA vaccine. And also I'd like to highlight that of the millions and millions of people that have received this thing, there's been a few very well-publicized examples of someone having a reaction. But I think the statistics show it's much, you know, it's much more dangerous. Your ride there, your drive there is much more dangerous. Good. So, how do you feel afterwards? How did you feel? Did you feel tired,
Starting point is 00:05:15 or? I felt wonderful, and I felt American, and I felt like I was participating in something. No, I mean physically. Some people, did you have any discomfort? I know, I know, I know. I felt absolutely, I wouldn't have known if someone hadn. I felt absolutely, I wouldn't have known if someone hadn't have told me, I wouldn't have known. And I was in a, they make you hang out in an auditorium. It felt like eighth grade again. Yeah. And for 15 minutes,
Starting point is 00:05:34 just to make sure you don't have some sort of a reaction. And there were hundreds of people in there. I saw absolutely no evidence of anything. Not even people saying, I don't, I don't, you know. So I feel fantastic. My brother got the second vaccine. He's a doctor. So he got his early also. And he's, he, he does a lot of COVID related things. And he said the second one made him feel a little achy, but he feels fine. You know what I mean? Like he was, it was interesting. He just mentioned it to
Starting point is 00:06:01 me. I'm excited that DC is now at 65 plus, and it is going to move down to my age group next, which I'm very, I'm going to be first in line, first in line for this thing. And one of the things that's really important for people to remember is even though you get the vaccine, it does not make you Superman. You also can still transmit the disease, apparently. So you have to be very careful. Even you can be, you can transmit it to others. So until we get enough people with this vaccine, it's not, we're not going to be not sure right very careful even you can be you can transmit it to others so um until we get enough people with this vaccine it's not we're not going to be out of the
Starting point is 00:06:29 woods but it does protect you in ways that you're not you're not a burden on the health care system um which is also a real problem anyway scott i think that's great that you did that i know you felt i know you didn't want me to bring it up but i think you should i think we have to push people to get these vaccines educators and then and then we move on down the list in terms of um people that really need it and you know i'm happy you got it my son's going back to nyu of course they have a whole process to go back um he's going back this week we had to get a test before he's going to get a test when he's there um right when he gets there and he gets a weekly test like on thursdays um and the minute he
Starting point is 00:07:05 can get the vaccine, I want him to get it. You know, he's younger and everything, and I'm sure he's low down on the list. But I have to say, I'm happy the professors there are getting it. And I think professors, colleges have to start operating again in an analog style and stuff. Well, not only that, but it brings out, in yoga, there's this term off the mat, and that is people start living healthier lives. When they start doing yoga, there's this term off the mat, and that is people start living healthier lives. That's when they start doing yoga, they start thinking about the food they're eating, the way they behave, the way they comport themselves,
Starting point is 00:07:30 the way they acquit themselves emotionally. And I find, you know, as soon as I got the vaccine, it was immediately like, you know, I can teach in person, and I want to be helpful. And it's not because, you know, I'm a good guy, although it is probably some virtue signaling, but I think people are excited to get back and be part of society and be helpful
Starting point is 00:07:49 and contribute around sectors of the economy where others can't because they're not as fortunate as some of us who had access to it. Anyways, look, good for me, good for educators, good for the planet. I can't imagine, I can't imagine other than Chipotle, the Queen's Gambit, I can't imagine anything better in the world right now.
Starting point is 00:08:15 All right. Scott has been vaccinated. Thank God all of us have a sigh of relief. What a thrill. Speaking of New York City. Orgy. Can you say orgy? No, don't, of course. As usual. I'll wear a mask because I alwaysgy. Can you say orgy? No, no, don't. Of course.
Starting point is 00:08:25 I'll wear a mask because I always wear a mask during an orgy. So I go as Judy Garland. We had a moment of beautiful civic virtue and it moves right into orgy as usual. I go as a witch. Sorry about that. New York City is ending its business contracts with Donald Trump, including the Ice Woman ice rink. New York City is ending its business contracts with Donald Trump, including the Ice Woman ice rink. New York City is ending its business contracts with Donald Trump. Your thoughts? Lots of them.
Starting point is 00:08:50 There's a golf course. There's a bunch of stuff that he runs for the city of New York. You know, okay. I don't know. I'm not sure municipalities. Yeah, I don't, I'm a little bit worried that- The Trump brand is getting dumped by a lot of businesses.
Starting point is 00:09:05 Yeah, I don't think, I don't think any of them are going to be, they're sort of persona non grata in New York. I think it's perfectly fine. You don't have Sackler wing. They took, why, why didn't, you didn't have a problem when they took Sackler off of things. It's fine. I'm not sure I have a problem here.
Starting point is 00:09:17 I just, it's like, to what end? Okay. I guess we can just shut them out. We do it all the time. Do states, I guess the PGA, that out. We do it all the time. I guess the PGA, that was the one that really must have hurt us. The PGA has announced they're not going to do a golf tournament out of one of his courses. Hey, you start an insurrection, you pay your price. Let me bring it back to you.
Starting point is 00:09:34 The bottom line is I have no reaction to that. What are your thoughts? I think it's exactly right. And everyone's like, I can't believe it. I'm like, they did it to the Sacklers. They do it to lots of names that become problematic. And in this case, fomenting an insurrection at the Capitol was problematic. Oh, there's that.
Starting point is 00:09:49 It's problematic. There's that. Everyone's always trying to make these extra arguments like, oh, never done. I'm like, it's done all the time. Is that right? Just like just, you know, when Josh Hawley was all whining like a big giant baby about losing his contract. Lots of people lose their book contracts over. Everybody loses these things when they fall into disrepute and in this case i think trump
Starting point is 00:10:09 really tops everyone in terms of what he did and if new york state i mean of course it's virtue signaling but so what they do all the time and it's perfectly fine not to want to be affiliated with the trump brand it's fine it's fine all. OK. Leaves us the big story. Trump is the only president to be impeached twice. Twice. Twice. He's bigger and better. There was a picture of him and Bill Clinton that said, here's three quarters of the impeachments in U.S. history.
Starting point is 00:10:35 There's only been four. The House held a hearing on Trump's second impeachment for inciting last week's violence in his direction to the Capitol. Several House Republicans, including third-ranking member Liz Cheney, daughter of Dick Cheney, but she's a representative, voted to impeach the president, although many have received threats against their families for doing so. And those who wanted to didn't do it because they were getting threats. Apparently, there's quite a few of those.
Starting point is 00:10:58 Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has told Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer they're going to switch their jobs soon, that he will not convene the Senate until next week. If you haven't listened yet, go back and listen to Tuesday's Pivot episode with historian and expert on coups, Ruth Ben-Jiat. So what do we think about all this? This is like another day at the races with this guy. Well, I watched some of the hearings, and the one statement that really struck me was one of the representatives stood up and said, you know, this rotunda or this hall is now a crime scene yeah yeah and it's just it's
Starting point is 00:11:30 just i think it's almost incalculable the amount of damage that's been done abroad people people don't appreciate just how powerful our brand is you know when you're traveling people are less likely quite frankly to with you when you're American because we're seen as having our act together and we're seen as having our memory as long as our reach as far. Companies are very inclined to do work. Parents are very inclined to let their kids try and start their careers or get an education here. So, Brand USA is- Oh my gosh, they're much less likely to aid and abet our enemies for fear that we are not only, you know, we're not only our,
Starting point is 00:12:11 I generally think our brand around the world is that people see us as arrogant, they see us as somewhat indulgent, but that our heart's in the right place. We get it wrong all the time, but our heart's in the right place. And I think we've lost a lot of that. What do we say at the next time there's a Tiananmen Square? What do we say to... We used to weigh in
Starting point is 00:12:27 and have an impact and influence. People, I think dictators and strongmen around the world used to think twice because they knew that America would weigh in and potentially think about economic sanctions, think about a military response. And now it's sort of like, well, it's hard to know what they're going to do. I think hopefully Biden restores some of that competence, but I just, it's sort of, with Trump, one of the things, and then I'll turn it back to you because I realize I'm bobbering on, but typically with Trump, he does something outrageous
Starting point is 00:12:56 that's quite frankly not that meaningful. It's just a stupid thing, reflects poorly on him, reflects poorly on the country, reflects poorly on his party. And then it starts, it's perishable it loses its viscosity because he does something else stupid this is the opposite this is going to fester yeah there's a giant open wound yeah and i also believe i also believe we're going to find out some very very uncomfortable things about who knew about this who hated it yeah and we're going to be shocked how high up they go and the question
Starting point is 00:13:24 is do we have capacity for shock with this guy? That's what he does. He constantly shocks, like you just said it. And this brand, I think that the investigation is going to show very deep ties in terms of, you know, this one, this representative, Mickey Sherrill, something like that. She's been in the military and she was a federal prosecutor.
Starting point is 00:13:42 And she and 30 others are saying, why were there tours of the Capitol the day before? Giant groups of people that someone let in to look around so that there was possibly some linkage between the people who were, you know, linking the people that were in the Capitol to what the day before. And there's all kinds of stuff. There is clearly something was going on here. Something's wrong. I've been in that building. I'm not going to be like a QAnon person and go,
Starting point is 00:14:07 oh, there's got to be something. I'm really eager to see the investigations in terms of the proof. But my point is we get mildly angry at things around the Trump administration. That anger dies down and moves on to new anger. This is just going to grow. This is so upsetting.
Starting point is 00:14:23 It's difficult to process what has actually happened here. And then I think it's the weight and the gravity of what's actually, because I think everyone's in a state of shock and just trying to process it. I just think we're going to become more and more pissed off. And without him in power, I think people are going to start to loosen up their lips in terms of what happened and what occurred and what he was doing. And I think that's what's going to be,
Starting point is 00:14:41 it's going to be the collective, oh, actually what happened is, oh yeah. And so it's an interesting thing. One of the things that I found interesting is they don't, some people close to Trump wanted to get him on Gab and some other platforms and little Jared did not. And I think that actually, I think he's really quite astonishingly dumb in terms of how he's handled himself. But that was a good move because you cannot, right? Can you imagine right now Trump on Twitter during this whole period? I mean, he'd either convict himself or make it worse or something. I am so pleased he is. It's
Starting point is 00:15:15 actually, and that's actually smart for him to keep his mouth shut. Well, this is, I thought the best summary of kind of social media around this, and I've been thinking a lot about Twitter, is that effectively, tyranny is the temporary alliance between the elite and a mob. And that's what this was. Frankly, it's been a slow-burning exercise in fascism with the partnering of the elite, specifically some of the richest people in the world, some of the most powerful people in the world, some of the wealthiest people in America, some of the people who have been most blessed, and a mob. Paying for it, yeah. And so, in my opinion, and I don't say this lightly, Twitter and Facebook are fascism with a health plan and a cafeteria. Okay, we're going to get to that. We're going to get to that in a second. Sorry. But I want to understand what you think right now from a brand America.
Starting point is 00:16:08 How does Biden carry this over? Continue the investigations or move on? There's the whole move on crowd that you saw last night. I got to be honest. I've never been, and I wasn't a big fan of how Biden handled himself through the election. I was. I love the election. I was. I love the basement. Well done.
Starting point is 00:16:28 And it ended up being the right strategy. But I think he's been, this has been a masterclass since his election because he can say, let's move on. And I think that's smart. He wants to position himself as bipartisan. But at the same time. I'm working with the future, right? At the same time, he's going to look at the FBI and he's going to do exactly what they should do. If you want to talk about repair, it comes down to one word, accountability. And I think you know where we're going to find a lot about. The FBI,
Starting point is 00:16:53 under their prosecutorial license and leverage, gets people speaking really fast. They do. It goes something like this. They sit down with the security guard who supposedly was communicating with the mob or whatever it is, and they say, you can go to jail for six months or 20 years. You got 30 minutes to figure out what you're going to tell us. Yeah. So I think we're going to I think we're going to find I think I think Biden is handling this from his standpoint, at least publicly, very well. He wants to come across as someone who's a healer and can reach across the aisle. And this is publicly he'll because other people are going to do his bidding.
Starting point is 00:17:26 Yeah. Nancy Pelosi can be Nancy Pelosi. That's right. He doesn't need to. So, you know, but this is this is going to go on for a while. We're going to be reading articles. We're going to be in a state of shock and we're going to find out more and more shocking things. The onion is going to stink more and more as we as we peel it back.
Starting point is 00:17:42 What do you think? I agree with you. I think once they start to do investigations, that's going to be really. And I think the anger of the Trump voters, even though people say, oh, it's right there, they're right on the surface. I suspect the more he gets a loser thing attached to him, the less this has happened to all the others, all the other strongmen. Once they seem weak, it's a problem for them because their brand is strong. And we'll see what he does afterwards. I think he's going to try to do a lot of interviews.
Starting point is 00:18:07 I'm hoping to get one myself. What do you think he does post? What would be the smart thing to do at post-inauguration? What do you think the thing he's going to do is? Because it's certainly not going to be the smart thing. Well, here's the thing, and we talked about this. I'm obsessed with this Professor Carlo Cipolla's matrix around, okay, good for society. Where is this professor from?
Starting point is 00:18:27 He's from Berkeley, and he passed away. But he wrote a book on stupid. And he has this matrix where one axis is good for society, good for yourself. And intelligent people do things that are good for themselves and good for society. And that's kind of the fuel of capitalism. And then there's the bandits, people who do something that's good for themselves but not good for society. And that's kind of the fuel of capitalism. And then there's the bandits, people who do something that's good for themselves, but not good for society.
Starting point is 00:18:50 Big tech, our tech leaders. And then there's the artists that do good things for society, but can't figure out a way to make it prosperous for themselves. Sort of the, Professor Chipola calls it the helpless. I would think of them as sort of artists. And then there's the stupid, and that is people who damage society with no demonstrable benefit to themselves. And these are the stupid. And the reason the stupid are just so dangerous is it's impossible to predict their actions. It's like trying to shoot a target where the movements are totally
Starting point is 00:19:21 unpredictable and improbable. And that's how I feel about this guy. I just have absolutely no idea. And I would have predicted that more Republicans would have voted in favor of impeachment. So I've sort of given up trying to understand the president. I think this was on a risk-adjusted basis, an absolutely idiotic decision what he did here. I just can't get over it. I think that Liz Cheney will prove to be very smart in what she did. Oh, she's made her career. It was interesting. It says people want to get
Starting point is 00:19:53 rid of her from third. It was three people. It was Andy Biggs, who's possibly compromised here and could face charges. He's being investigated for his involvement with the mob. The second one is Jim Jordan. I don't know how, I haven't seen his name in that regard, but I have. And then the third one, there's three people and two of them, I think, are being looked at for their
Starting point is 00:20:15 involvement in the organization of this thing. And so there's just three. And then others like Dan Crenshaw, some others are defending her, right? Who, even if they voted against, you know, against the impeachment, they are defending her. And I'm like, she's going to get the corporate money. She's going to get a conscience vote. And they're all getting cut off. That to me is the most interesting thing that how Walmart just decided to cut off everyone that voted against for the election fraud stuff, you know, that they said that there was election fraud trying to stop the thing.
Starting point is 00:20:48 They, a hundred and some representatives are not getting money from Walmart. And the list for corporate giving is they're all doing it. And so it seems to me, and Liz Cheney, I do think, made a conscience vote, but she also made a financial vote.
Starting point is 00:21:00 Like this is, she is going to, she's betting on institutionalism, I guess, that will return and mob rule will dissipate, as it often does, eventually. And so I think she's going to benefit most here of all the people. I was speaking to Roger McNamee yesterday, and he read me back a quote, and I don't know if it was the Secretary of Defense, but the longest serving soldier up until that point that worked in, I think, the cabinet or advised President Lincoln's head the day before his inauguration. Anyone who's guilty of sedition should be tied to a cannon shot from the Congress or the halls of the Congress and used to be fertilized the hill. This was sedition. This was insurrection.
Starting point is 00:21:41 And I think Representative Cheney's decision is going to age really, really well. Yeah. I just think it's going to be hard to go back. Remember that time you voted to impeach the guy who committed sedition? Well, that was the right thing to do. Yeah. Yeah. So I think that decision is going to age really well. I think they're being stupid to have done, I would have abstained or something. I just, it's really, I think a lot of them were actually physically scared. I do think there was a whole, There was a lot of reporting on that, that some of the representatives were physically scared of their—one of them who voted against it said he went back, voted for, excuse me, the impeachment. He went back to his constituency, and they were like, see, we got him. You know, he was a little scared to do the vote, it sounded like.
Starting point is 00:22:21 Well, and not only that, this is where we are as a nation. A bunch of them voted by proxy because they were scared of going into the capitol right physically scared the one who said you're a pussy if you didn't go and also and also they're scared of catching covid as it now looks like this was a super spreader event yeah so that's where we are that's where arguably if if we're a free and safe society, this should represent that. And right now it does not represent that. Yeah, I think the Republicans brand is really good.
Starting point is 00:22:50 It's a place of danger, of violence and infection. Yeah. That's the capital? Yeah. That's the capital of America. We shouldn't vote by proxy. And guess who was voting by proxy? Dan Crenshaw. They just really need to, they need to to really i would not have done any voting before i knew exactly what happened you know what i mean and that's going to be interesting and i think
Starting point is 00:23:09 that you're right there's going to be an investigation here that is going to show some very terrifying things about insider uh involvement in this but we'll see i don't know as unlike huonan people i don't know and i'm looking forward to the investigation. But it looks, the whole thing looks like a mob, a hidden thing within the mob. And you can see some of it. And we're going to, the reporting is going to, and the investigation is going to be very interesting. And of course, if it turns out there was nothing, I will say that. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk more about different platforms responding to the alt-right and Trump and listener mail question.
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Starting point is 00:24:19 And they're making bank. Last year, scammers made off with more than $10 billion. It's mind-blowing to see the kind of infrastructure that's been built to facilitate scamming at scale. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of scam centers all around the world. These are very savvy business people. These are organized criminal rings. And so once we understand the magnitude of this problem, we can protect people better. One challenge that fraud fighters like Ian face is that scam victims sometimes feel too ashamed to discuss what happened to them. But Ian says one of our best defenses is simple. We need to talk to each other. We need to have those awkward conversations
Starting point is 00:25:02 around what do you do if you have text messages you don't recognize? What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive? Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam, but he fell victim and we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to work together to protect each other. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. Support for this show is brought to you by Nissan Kicks. It's never too late to try new things, and it's never too late to reinvent yourself. The all-new reimagined Nissan Kicks is the city-sized crossover vehicle that's been completely revamped for urban adventure. From the design and styling to the performance, all the way to features like the Bose Personal Plus sound system,
Starting point is 00:25:58 you can get closer to everything you love about city life in the all-new reimagined Nissan Kicks. Learn more at www.nissanusa.com slash 2025 dash kicks. Available feature. Bose is a registered trademark of the Bose Corporation. Okay, Scott, we're back. Now you can take off on big tech. YouTube is the latest platform to suspend Trump this week, although it's only for the next seven days. YouTube said in a statement that Trump's most recent video violated its policy for inciting violence. Oh, really, YouTube? Finally. The company is also removing comments from his videos indefinitely. Airbnb is canceling all reservations made in the Capitol this week in an effort to keep the inauguration from pro-Trump rioters, and they
Starting point is 00:26:46 probably will be rioters. Snapchat also, I'm sorry for saying that in advance, but you seem to have acquitted yourself badly last time. Snapchat also banned Trump for life. Meanwhile, without access to Parler, Facebook, and Twitter, alt-right Trump supporters are organizing on encrypted messaging platforms such as Signal and Telegram. By the way, Jack Dorsey has defended his decision to ban Trump from Twitter, and Sheryl Sandberg has deflected blame for the coup from Facebook, and many people think she was inaccurate. Scott, care to rant? Go for it. Well, yeah, as Ms. Sandberg—
Starting point is 00:27:19 I want to yell. I need you to yell at the person. Yeah, I'm not going to yell. As Ms. Sandberg claims that, you know, pats herself on the back saying that because of her transparency, it wasn't her platform. No sooner does she say that than they are taking ads for military vests and basically combat wear right above content around the insurrection. So what you're missing, planning to head back, are you part of the mob? Well, buy this military vest.
Starting point is 00:27:48 I mean, that is, for me, that sort of typified- More than that, there was lots of proof that they organized on Facebook too. Of course there is. But the thing I'm uncomfortable with, and there's a lot to unpack here, is that when we have insurrection, when we have a potential coup,
Starting point is 00:28:05 the way we mete out justice in our society now is that Kayak and Caviar cancel as account. That's how we beg our innovators. We beg our overlords. That's the position we're in. Also, quite frankly, I'm uncomfortable with the fact that AWS can basically put companies out of business overnight.
Starting point is 00:28:23 I think Parler- I'm not, because there's lots of- Well, hold on. Okay, go ahead. I think Parler should have been put out of business overnight. I think parlors- I'm not, because there's lots of- Okay, go ahead. I think parlors should have been put out of business, but I think it should have been put out of business by the FBI and laws and criminal investigation, not by a web hosting company. And this is all, again, further evidence
Starting point is 00:28:37 that the real power in our society is no longer government, it's no longer laws, it's no longer moral authority. It's we hope that a tech company takes down or refuses to let them order a Lyft. And when AWS, I was thinking about the last time a media company was put out of business this fast. And I was thinking with Peter Thiel when he funded the case and it put Gawker out of business. Now, is that what we want? Is that when people are wrong, it's billionaires and tech companies putting them out of business? Let me just say, first of all, the fact that Parler made a big deal about AWS, there are six or seven other cloud services he could have used.
Starting point is 00:29:10 They just don't want to do business with them. That is the issue. They've been shut out. He was saying antitrust against Amazon. I'm like, hey, DodoBird, there's six or seven of these. It's not a market that doesn't have competition. You have Google. You've got IBM, you've got
Starting point is 00:29:28 Microsoft. There's all kinds of people you can do business with. They just don't want to do business with you. And I don't think that AWS has to do business with Paris. I don't think they do either. I think they made the right decision. They can cut them off. I know that we're waiting for them, but there's no... If you
Starting point is 00:29:43 have a store and you don't want to sell to someone, you're not, you don't have to. And that, why, I agree, they have enormous power. And so that's the, that's the disconnect here, but don't link that with the fact that businesses that don't want to be in the terrorism business don't have to be in the terrorism business. And so they can make a decision. Now they're, now the problem is if you go forward to that, if you go back in time, these are all the companies that facilitated all this, right? They created, they gave people the tools to make this mess. And now they're like, oh, wait a minute.
Starting point is 00:30:13 I didn't know they were doing this with it. And so we have to separate the two. One is the culpability before this all happened. And the other is the decision not to. But there is absolutely no way that AWS has to sell services to Parler if it doesn't want to. And they don't have to sell them a gay wedding cake. We've already figured that, you know, we already determined that. You just don't like that they have this power. Well, I just think it indicates something very unhealthy in our society when I'm glad Parler
Starting point is 00:30:39 shut down, I think it was the right, or they shut them down, I think it was the right decision. What I think is concerning is that a company can basically put another company out of business overnight by refusing to host them um but they had options to go elsewhere nobody wanted them that is what so they've been shut out the other thing that struck me to your point is that if you own a legal cannabis business you can't find anyone to bank with you so it makes sense that okay these guys now are having trouble but i am it just seems strange that basically the arbiters of power, the arbiters of justice have become a bunch of 30-somethings that run apps or run web hosting companies. I think it just reflects the concentration of power. It all goes back to the same thing. The biggest tax cut
Starting point is 00:31:20 and the biggest source of freedom, the greatest oxygenation of the marketplace would be to go through and absolutely bust up the concentration of power here except in this case if there isn't a content like why didn't oracle pick these guys up with their friends the trump people oracle was like no thank you no as often i'm learning my understanding was that basically with aws pulling the plug on these, what you're saying is the entire community pulled the plug on them. That there's no- Individually making their decisions,
Starting point is 00:31:48 all of which is, I'm not doing business with that bunch of yin-yangs. I mean, Oracle is the example I use because Oracle is very close to the Trump administration, but they don't want anything to do with this. Now, you would think that they would be like, oh, free speech, let's have them. Nobody wants to be in business with a place that foments terrorism.
Starting point is 00:32:08 It is just that simple in this case. And by the way, there is competition in this particular space. Now, you could talk about Facebook and Twitter, sort of the iron, you know, they're the only choices Trump has here. And YouTube, the three of them. It's an iron triangle, the three of them. That's three platforms where he could go that he can't go now. Now there's three, right? That's a lot. That's a lot of things. And Snapchat is four. Reddit is five. You know what I mean? Like they all don't want to do business. I think what we need to be looking at is what happened before.
Starting point is 00:32:38 Not that they're doing this now, because I think they're within their rights to cut off business from people. But why did they suddenly decide now that Parler was bad? Parler was bad before, right? This was happening. Why weren't they monitoring? Now, a bigger question is something about Airbnb canceling reservations. They have a history of this. They did it in Charlottesville, and they're doing it now.
Starting point is 00:32:58 Again, well within their rights to do so, as far as I'm concerned. I just, you know, they don't want people. It's really interesting. It's actually, when you think about it, and I'm, disclosure, I'm a shareholder. I'm a big fan of the company. But it's interesting how effective it might be, right? To basically say, look, where are these people going to stay? Well, let's just say, for the time being, we're not going to have Airbnbs in the DC metro area. And it also reflects a different gestalt, a different approach metro area. And it also reflects a different gestalt, a different approach to business. And that is traditionally companies have said, well, we don't want to be arbiters of the truth. And they slow roll it. And they said,
Starting point is 00:33:35 as long as we can keep the register ringing, every narrative points to one place. How do we ensure that we grow 22.7% this month, not 22.6? And this is a different approach. It's saying, no, we're actually going to look at, we're going to do what the business roundtable says we're supposed to do, and that is the directors and the management team are fiduciaries for stakeholders, not just shareholders. And one of those stakeholders is the government.
Starting point is 00:33:59 One of those stakeholders is our citizenry. One of those stakeholders is ensuring that we have a safe, you know, we don't have chaos. And they said, okay, we can play a role in that. And so, I think it was a good move. And I think it's a leadership move. The easy thing would have just been to kind of like ignore it and back away from it. He did it before. He did it in Charlottesville.
Starting point is 00:34:21 That's what they did. They did it before. They've done it several times before, actually, which I think is very responsible. I just feel like this is their business. It's the same thing. We're not mad at Walmart for not giving money to the people who voted. We're not going, how dare they do that? Like, they can decide what they want to do with their money.
Starting point is 00:34:35 I just, I think. Or even Charles Schwab. Charles Schwab has canceled their PAC. All of them did, but we're not on their case. We're on the internet's case. I want to be on the case of why did Walmart fund these people before? We're on the internet. I want to be on the case of why did Walmart fund these people before? Why did these internet companies allow this to go on when it was in plain sight what was happening, right, before? Like, that's what I, like, now they're suddenly, like, converted. And this is not these representatives, and they still continue to fund them because it wasn't this bad. And when it becomes this bad is when they cut and run. I'm fine with them cutting and running, but I want
Starting point is 00:35:13 to look at what happened before. So one more question, Scott. We've argued about encryption before and what the government should be allowed to ask companies to hand over. How does this moment change this conversation that a lot of these groups are going on on those things? I'm still in the I'm still in the protecting of them. I'm in the Apple side of this. And how should companies like Signal, which is an app that also used by a lot of journalists, respond to this knowledge that they may be organizing on these platforms? Yeah, you and I think you and I do disagree. But I mean, for example, I believe they should be using facial recognition software to track track people down and but what i want is thoughtful judges uh that that make good decisions uh then that recognize the law and don't don't use these
Starting point is 00:35:51 technologies in a wanton way that violates people's rights but i i think they should i am uncomfortable with apple or any uh anyone else usurping the role of the government deciding what information gets uh that our national security and our law enforcement have access to. But I think they have to have a good case for doing it. They have to, you know. Oh, agreed. But they don't, usually they just want in for fishing around. No, you can't.
Starting point is 00:36:16 Well, it's like, it's like before the Patriot Act, it was much harder to get, to get warrants. And I think that was probably the right way to go. I think you have to be very thoughtful about when you are allowed to use these technologies, but I do think they should be part of the arsenal. I'm just uncomfortable. I mean, to your credit or to your point, I have found myself texting more because I think it's more secure. And I do appreciate that security, but I don't like corners of the web that are out of the reach of the greatest force and the least wrong entity or arbiter of when intervention or law enforcement is warranted. And that's the U.S. government and our courts. So, again, we're just ceding more power to big tech. They're the ones that kind of decide what is open for review and what isn't.
Starting point is 00:37:02 Well, I think there should be an onerous way to get at the information in terms of the courts. Because, you know, every time, you know, whatever you think is what Edward Stone is, dead clear, they will sneak around wherever they can, the government will, and they shouldn't be doing that. And so, you know, you can have your opinion, but they were doing extrajudicial activities, our government, and therefore they should not be able to. And so it'll be an
Starting point is 00:37:25 interesting question. One of the things, and then we're going to get to a listener mail, was a lot of people were like, well, now these people are going to go underground. I'm like, they were underground before. Like, don't, they were underground. What's happened is they came out in the light and they thrived, unlike most mold. They came out in the light and that was even, that amplified and weaponized them in a way that they never had. And to take away this light that allows them to proliferate, I think is not a bad thing. Like these groups, I don't mind them yelling at each other.
Starting point is 00:37:55 Who cares if they want to do that? But actually fomenting sedition, take away their power to do that. I'm perfectly fine with that, especially in the way they behave in the Capitol. And one of the things I'm worried about is because in this fast news cycle, and maybe the news cycle will slow down with Biden, I think it probably will, because Trump is one big, like, moving news or news generating entity, is that everyone can slow down and really take a look at what happened here in a way and maybe once and maybe once again be shocked by what happened that's my hope instead of us moving on this twitchy culture where we move on from like
Starting point is 00:38:30 oh sedition yeah not this time this is going to get i really do think that we're starting to process this and we're just coming to grips with the fact that wow yeah this was not only ugly and frightening it's getting it's going to get uglier and uglier when we find out what's going on here and in the back to this professor chipola's matrix, the reason why the bandits, the people who leverage the stupid people for their own gains, the bandits are never going to run out of the stupids. And so we have to hold both groups accountable. And the people who are sort of behind the scenes, either enabling, ignoring, accomplices, whatever you call it, to sedition. For every one person that was in that mob, I think there are several that are complicit in this.
Starting point is 00:39:12 Yeah. Yeah. Either through misinformation or helping them coordinate, whatever it might be. I think we need to literally run down every web and every link here. Agreed. And there's certain tells in society. And one of the tells, if I ever see a CEO saying, we're all in this together, I know it's a CEO asking for a bailout. And whenever I see an elected leader talking about our need to heal and reunite here, it's somebody who's wallpaper over in their role here. It's someone who looks back and says, oh, I played a role here,
Starting point is 00:39:41 so now it's time to heal and forgive everyone, including me. Yeah, I think that's a tell. As soon as I see someone standing up on a sunflower, this is a time to heal. Yeah, Kevin McCarthy. That was Kevin McCarthy. Okay, boss. What did you do? What did you do? Kevin McCarthy, 100% when I was watching him, he had to throw Trump a little bit under the bus, this leg perhaps.
Starting point is 00:40:01 Yeah. I was like, oh, because a week ago he was like a rabbit you know like this and i don't want to be like oh he's got it what i hope we don't do is we focus the other last thing and then we'll get to this listener question is focus on like the stupid guy with the horns or the guy and the the judge's son in in uh in in furs and stuff like that like oh look at these goofballs look at these you know duck dynasty mob no there, there is an insidious group of people hidden within that. And we have to do a Where's Waldo on this one.
Starting point is 00:40:32 Like a deep, bright light Where's Waldo. And when I walk in and my son, my 10-year-old son immediately comes up and hugs me, I'm like, uh-oh, what's on fire? Like, what did you destroy? What has gone wrong here? And that's the same here. Whenever you hear this language about us needing to unite and this is no time to hold people, on fire like what did you destroy what what has gone wrong here and that's the same here whenever
Starting point is 00:40:45 you hear this language about us needing to unite and this is no time to hold people i.e me accountable yeah like this is we really i think a big part of healing here is accountability and also i think on the left we are infected with this bullshit version of wokeness called both-sidedness. There is no other side here. Sedition and insurrection literally tear at the fabric of everything we think is right and wrong, and people should be held accountable. This is not a time for forgiveness and moving on and healing. No. Hard no. Proctology exam for Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar, I feel. You say that like it's a bad thing. You love them, I bet. You love them. Vaccinated Scott.
Starting point is 00:41:26 Vaccinated Scott. Well, you know, my prostate's so big, I wish there was an off switch. Or Kara, is that the on switch? All right, we're going to a listener. Moving on, let's take a listener. Oh my God, there's two references now. Two references, orgies and proctology.
Starting point is 00:41:40 Surrender, Dorothy, surrender. Let's moving on. Let's take a listener mail question you've got you've got i can't believe i'm gonna be a mailman you've got mail hi cara and scott this is jody in new york as i sit here watching rioters and domestic terrorists storm the capital i would love your thoughts on whether it's possible to rebrand america or after today and after the last four years of the Trump presidency, have we gone too far?
Starting point is 00:42:09 Looking forward to hearing what you think. All right, we've talked about this. Yes, yes, I think it is. Scott, how would you rebrand America? I mean, I think Biden's starting to do that, of course, obviously going to reach out to all kinds of officials. I think there'll probably be a big splashy, we're back kind of thing. We're back, bigger, better, badder,
Starting point is 00:42:26 whatever the, whatever. We're not badder, we're less bad. Bigger, build better together, whatever, whatever. It's a lot of Bs. I think we have to really, really have like a PR initiative with the rest of the world to start with, like that we're here back.
Starting point is 00:42:42 I think we have to, I think happy grandpa is a good thing. And the focus on a diverse group of people running the government, I think that's important. I think a persistent shunning of some of these Trump people is important, you know, that we don't, we're not going to let them return. Like a lot of people started the Iraq war. People said they came back too fast on TV and stuff like that, that they should be shunned a little bit. And some depends, everyone's different, obviously, but you can't, you know, it reminds me a little bit, you know, of sort of the me too thing. Those guys have not come back. You know, we're not bringing back Harvey Weinstein. The idea that all is forgiven, I think perhaps we have to be stronger on that.
Starting point is 00:43:27 And ultimately, look, the stock market is going crazy still. The U.S. stock market is still strong. So obviously, it's not a risky investment for, you know, we had a sedition and we're still, the numbers are still high. And we have to have a very strong, a continued strong stance on China, I do think. But although we've lost almost all of our credibility in terms of democracy, et cetera. Well, you got to hope that this insurrection serves as a vaccine and not the first indication or symptom of a chronic illness. And that is, I like to think that similar to a vaccine, we've seen this tyranny, we've been given an impaired version of the tyranny virus just enough to alert our immunity system. And then we're going to recognize that when unregulated companies with sociopathic leadership
Starting point is 00:44:17 decide to ignore all evidence that they are ripping at the fabric of society, that that is not acceptable and they need to be held accountable. That we're going to recognize that hate speech and leaders who pit us against each other, that this can lead to very, we're going to try and arrest the virus. Our immunity system is going to stand on high alert. So I'm hoping, I'm hoping that this serves as a kind of a vaccination for us,
Starting point is 00:44:41 that we no longer take these things for granted. Because here's the problem. The incentives here are all fucked up. If you think about really, it's the 1% of America, the shareholder class who control the government because money has just become such a dominant force in politics. And they keep getting wealthier.
Starting point is 00:44:58 And quite frankly, they aren't the ones, they have almost no risk of being separated from their children at the border. They have almost no risk of being exposed to the virus because they have to head out with their diabetes medication and their Diet Cokes into their Ubers. So if the incentives are such that, and I hate to say this, but I believe the pandemic has been used as cloud cover for the shareholder class to explode their wealth. And unless people feel pain, I believe one of the reasons in addition to- Yeah, but what do you do? I mean, it is what it is, right? The stock market. Well, you don't have stimulus where only 15% of the money reaches the people it's supposed to reach.
Starting point is 00:45:34 You don't have, you have, in my opinion, we need to do away with capital gains. People need to feel pain. If your wealth is correlated to the number of infections, are you really going to end up with a full-throated response to the pandemic? The 1%, and this is the dirty secret. This is what Stephanie Ruhl talks about also. The 1% are living their best lives. So the most powerful people in the nation,
Starting point is 00:45:56 are they really incented and motivated? I'm not saying that they want the pandemic to rage on, but are we- Because it's inconvenient to their vacations, although they've all gone on, but go ahead. But if this had been killing young white people and the NASDAQ had been cut in half, you would have seen a different response to this pandemic. Instead, it's like, well, my stocks are up. So look, I think we, for example, I think we absolutely should do away.
Starting point is 00:46:21 Elon Musk has added the GDP of Hungary to his personal net worth since the pandemic broke out. Trillionaires have added trillions of dollars. The S&P has said companies are more profitable than they've ever been because they've used work from home as an opportunity and cloud cover to lay off people. Well, you know what? If we're borrowing $3 trillion against future generations, shouldn't we pay it back? Shouldn't we, for example, do away with the capital gains tax deduction? We are so quick to bail out companies and rich people because of these extraordinary events. Well, we've had an extraordinary event, and it's called an absolute explosion and surge in the top 1% wealth. So shouldn't we be thinking about policies and
Starting point is 00:46:58 tax policy for them to pay it back? Well, I think Biden is. I think there is. The tax break, rolling back the tax break, putting money in the hands of people the two thousand dollar checks and in the right hands um you know i agree with you i think it's really quite amazing how rich the numbers you see and the tech leaders are an example of this the number the amount of money they've gained in this pandemic it's extraordinary it's mind-blowing and at the same time, it's like, how did that happen? And then you have to really think hard about a lot of things. And it's not because they were so skilled at their jobs.
Starting point is 00:47:32 You know what I mean? In some cases, you're sort of like, okay, they made something really quite amazing and deserve the benefit, the financial benefit from it. Look at what's happened here. So let's just do the math. Okay, so net compensation has declined only by 50 billion. That takes into account increases in salaries because the people who've been really hit hard
Starting point is 00:47:51 on a professional level weren't making that much money to begin with. So we've lost $50 billion in wages. We've put another trillion dollars of stimulus into people's hands. So obviously more money. And also consumers have saved $500 billion because they're no longer going to the Olive Garden or to Disney World. So what does that mean? A trillion and a half dollars in additional cabbage that American consumers, American public didn't have before, which means the savings rate, which typically bounces along at 7%, exploded to 34%, the highest ever on record. What do they do with that money? Only 15% of people who receive stimulus said they're going to spend it.
Starting point is 00:48:24 So they either save it or they invest it in stocks. So we have seen the stock market explode or real estate. And who owns 80 to 90% of stocks in real estate? The top 1%. So we have basically said, we have basically said, hey, your kids and your grandkids, we're going to max out their fucking credit card so the richest become insanely rich. Is that what this was supposed to do? The shareholder class here either willingly or, again, delaying obfuscation or kind of just ignore the fact have played this pandemic like a Stradivarius to a hall of rich people such that we could borrow money to explode the wealth. And, you know, we do. Sure, we throw some bread and some circus, some circuses at the neediest. But it is striking how little of this revenue got to the right places.
Starting point is 00:49:09 Yeah. So how does it get there, Scott? Well, we talked about this, I think, unemployment insurance. Yeah. I personally, we just would have gone, okay, here's a trillion dollars. Here's the third most economically impaired household. There's about 40 of them. That's $25,000 per household.
Starting point is 00:49:25 You need a velocity of a multiplier effect. And by the way, if you give $25,000 to the poorest household, it's almost like a one-time UBI, they're going to spend 25,000 of it. It didn't help us to give people $1,224. Yeah, and then they don't have to make bad decisions. And then they say, well, maybe we shouldn't have 11 of us in a thousand square foot apartment.
Starting point is 00:49:44 Maybe dad shouldn't be riding Uber if he's not be getting in an Uber if he's not wealthy. Maybe, okay, maybe we don't want to send someone with a comorbidity to work today. Yeah, it takes the boot off their neck. It takes the pandemic boot off their neck. It does. It does. It allows them to get up and breathe for a second. I agree with you.
Starting point is 00:50:01 The amount of wealth that has been made in this pandemic due to no innovation, none, zero. Again, part of me is like, Jeff Bezos did make something that was pretty remarkable. He deserves a lot of money for that. But when you get into the numbers now and why he's getting wealthy now, it's a very different situation. Same thing with Elon Musk. The Tesla is remarkable. Is it this remarkable? Does he deserve this much? No, of course not. It just doesn't make any sense.
Starting point is 00:50:31 And I don't know what we can do about it, except the fact that we have to start moving the money where it deserves to be versus where it's benefiting. And you're right, the stock market class- I'm warming to this idea. I really don't like the idea. One of the keys to a functioning capitalist democratic society is even when you make bad decisions, there's private property. And maybe the tax rates are low. So, okay, fine, then change the
Starting point is 00:50:47 tax rates, but you can't go back and go after private property. I don't think you can do that. I don't think you can rob them of the situation. No, I'm just saying it's not because of innovation that they got rich. Agreed. However, I am warming to the fact, I don't believe wealth taxes work because you end up being Bernard Arnault and you just relocate to Belgium or the wealthiest people hire the smartest people to hide the money. I am warming to the fact, and I think it could be effective of a one-time wealth tax that basically say, look, anyone who made a, anyone whose net worth is over $10 million has had the best year economically ever. And quite frankly, it's, it's a result of an externality. It's a result of borrowing money against future generations.
Starting point is 00:51:23 And we do a one-time wealth tax because people won't move. People won't leave the country. People have a much more difficult time hiding their assets on a one-time tax. And there won't be the motivation. But we're quick to call for bailouts amongst the wealthiest corporations and individuals in these exogenous shocks. We've had the mother of all exogenous shocks called an explosion in wealth across the wealthy. And we need to pay this shit back at some point. When does the adult, when does the person who can do math,
Starting point is 00:51:49 when do Republicans actually show up with fiscal responsibility again? It just, we seem to have totally ignored that. They love the spending of the money. But how do you think that's going to get through? Is that a Liz Warren thing? Because she's talking about persistent wealth tax. Yeah, I don't think that works. And also I do, if you look at a wealth tax
Starting point is 00:52:09 around the world, they have very rarely ever worked. They make sense in theory, they don't work because the wealthiest have the ability to- To get out of it. Get out of them, or they relocate, they move their tax domain to Brussels from Paris, right? Yeah, or move to Florida like a lot of- Well, money is very mobile.
Starting point is 00:52:27 Money is very mobile. And so are the wealthy. The wealthy are the most mobile people in the world. Look at how many people are moving to Texas and Florida. It's not- Anyways, it's a wealth tax. But what could work, what could work is a one-time wealth tax. Jody, we've more than answered your question.
Starting point is 00:52:45 We have got to start doing things to get our brand USA back and that we're equitable. Go ahead. I'm sorry, but the one thing around branding, if you really wanted, if you thought of this as a company and an organization,
Starting point is 00:52:56 the one thing that could bring this brand back more so than anything, in addition to accountability, is simple, simple. All right. Vaccinations. If we led the world, I mean, the reality is- We're not, Israel's already passed us.
Starting point is 00:53:13 Everyone's already passed us. Agreed. But everyone looks to America. If we, this is all about the novel coronavirus. It's all about, okay, people remember the end. We can, from a brand standpoint, we could have just really seriously royally fucked us up which we have to date but if we get the rest right if we figure
Starting point is 00:53:30 out distribution if we figure out supply chain here and we get our most vulnerable vaccinated and we start to crush oh i think you know what i think that can help i think we will because literally we've had idiots running it like now, even a passively smart person running this will have a quantum level of impact. Well, you know why I was able to get vaccinated? We've had idiots running it. And why they've lowered the age to 65. I actually think they're going to start adding more and more cohorts because they made a smart decision. They said, you know what?
Starting point is 00:53:58 What are we doing stockpiling the vaccinations for the second dose when the first dose gets you to 80%? Just release it all. Just start jabbing people's arms. Yep. Just start jabbing everyone's goddamn arm. Yep. And Scott, you have been jabbed, so to speak. All right, Scott, one more quick break.
Starting point is 00:54:15 We'll be back for predictions. My eyes are bleeding. Is that bad? Is that supposed to happen? Stop. Don't say that. I'm kidding. I feel good.
Starting point is 00:54:21 The anti-vaxxers will come here and use it. You know what I did after I got the vaccine when I came home? I worked out right that was fine okay that was fine all right granted granted i've grown a third testicle i don't know what that means stop all right scott we'll be back after break for predictions do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere and you're making content that no one sees and it takes forever to build a campaign? Well, that's why we built HubSpot. It's an AI powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing and makes writing blogs, creating videos and posting on social a breeze.
Starting point is 00:55:01 So now it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere and you're making content that no one sees and it takes forever to build a campaign? Well, that's why we built HubSpot. It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Okay, Scott. Tasteless, Scott.
Starting point is 00:55:42 Vaccinations are very safe. Let me just reiterate that after Scott's little outbreak there. We have another big news week coming up, the inauguration of Joe Biden. I'm here in D.C. I feel unsafe. I do feel unsafe being here because who knows what's going to happen, although the troops are everywhere, as I've told you before. You feel unsafe? I do. I do.
Starting point is 00:56:01 I'm like, I'm like, I don't know what they're going to do. Like, I'm not. On one hand, I'm like, there's such a bunch of imbeciles. I don't know how they organize themselves. At the same time, arbitrary violence is easy. So that's my worry. Well, baby, sleep well tonight. Your three bald man lovers coming down there to protect you. Oh, no, I don't want you to protect me.
Starting point is 00:56:22 That's right. Listen to me. I'm a Belgian Malinois. No, please don't come down here. I will, I don't want you to protect me. That's right. Listen to me. I'm a Belgian Malinois. No, please don't come down here. I will be in much worse trouble if you're here. And plus, who knows what else you'll bring down, what other disease you'll bring down.
Starting point is 00:56:34 Besides, even though you've been vaccinated, that does give you a leg up. Prediction, prediction, prediction. I'm nervous. I don't think there's going to be violence. I think there's so many troops here. It's really quite astonishing. I'm depressed about that because I really love the inaugural.
Starting point is 00:56:45 I've been to several. And it's a really wonderful day. Usually, no matter what side you're on, it's always a really wonderful, you know, transfer of power is always peaceful. Transfer of power is always a good thing. But give us a prediction, please. So I was going to make a prediction around the inauguration and politics. And I thought, you know, I was thinking. You can have two.
Starting point is 00:57:04 Well, I don't want to make a prediction around that stuff because the reality is I don't have any domain expertise and that stuff is so important. And I just don't feel comfortable commenting on something this important when I don't really have any real insight. The place I- Wait, I'm going to have one.
Starting point is 00:57:18 Lady Gaga is going to be off the charts. She's singing and so is J-Lo. Really? Lady Gaga and J-Lo? Mm-hmm. They're a poker face. and so is J-Lo. Really? Lady Gaga and J-Lo? Mm-hmm. They're a poker face. My prediction is more— She's not singing poker face, but go ahead.
Starting point is 00:57:31 My prediction is going to be around the economy. I think that consumer stocks and the consumer economy is going to roar for the next 12 to 24 months. I think you essentially have so much pent up demand emotionally and also economically. Consumers have saved $500 billion since the beginning of the pandemic. Whether it's a trip to Disney, whether it's going out and buying, you know,
Starting point is 00:57:55 those new Apple headphones, which aren't available till April. By the way, Apple's about to put Bose out of business, but you're gonna see the consumer economy just absolutely, and I don't know where it heads in two years. It's going to be the roaring 20s again for, I don't know how long it lasts. It didn't end well. Well, that's the correct question, what happens after it.
Starting point is 00:58:17 But you're going to see an explosion in consumer spending. I think probably once we get to, once what a quote-unquote herd immunity is in sight, and once consumers feel safe again, you're going to see people are just going to go apeshit with their spending, just apeshit. And consumer stocks, discretionary consumer stocks are going to absolutely rip. And it's been kind of tech has ripped,
Starting point is 00:58:43 but we're going to see some of the more old line, mainline consumer cyclical stocks jump and the economy, we're going to see GDP. What's going to happen to tech stocks then? These aren't that particular. I just don't see how they- They've had such a run up. Yeah, but they just keep going. The market here has gotten so crazy. And yet, when you think it's crazy, it gets even crazier. So I don't see in the short term, I don't see any catalyst for why they would come down. And that's about the moment that they crash. But
Starting point is 00:59:20 I don't see them coming down in the short term. So everything up and to the right, stock market, consumer stock. It's weird to say. Who's going to do badly? Gosh, that's the correct question. I don't know. I've always said, and this isn't stocks, but I've always said that all the companies that receive PPP that were going out of business and were prepared for a new world, I think we're going to find a lot of those businesses that got PPP loans. We were just building piers, not bridges, to tomorrow. Fair point. You're right.
Starting point is 00:59:47 So I think we're going to see a lot of, unfortunately, we're going to see a lot of small businesses, a lot of small retail. A third of restaurants could go away. So unfortunately, small and medium-sized businesses. But what people fail to realize is that in all the carnage, this is what we've done. We've said, oh, we need to save existing businesses. When you save existing businesses on the credit card of future generations, you're not only robbing against future generations, you're robbing against a younger generation
Starting point is 01:00:12 because this is what happened. If that cute little restaurant goes out of business, then the real estate prices go down, the cost of capital goes down, the cost of plates goes down. And then some 27-year-old who's a recent graduate of a culinary institute opens her dream restaurant. And it's a better restaurant that's better prepared for the new economy and the new
Starting point is 01:00:30 consumer behavior of the new economy. There is opportunity when young people can buy Brooklyn real estate at $1,000 a book instead of $1,500 a book. There's opportunity when people get to buy Amazon at 30 times earnings instead of 300 times earnings. So we've collectively decided let's use the Future Generations credit card and let's not have opportunity for younger people because we've got to preserve the wealth of the existing wealthy. Well, guess what? The reason I'm economically secure is I got to buy Apple at whatever it was, 15 bucks a share in 2009 because of the economic prices. I got to buy Amazon at 160 bucks because we let the economic crises and the damage done. It's like a fire. It spawns certain saplings from crisis. And instead we're like, whatever we do, don't let rich people not be as rich. Well, guess what? There's opportunity in crisis for the new generation to come in and have
Starting point is 01:01:24 some opportunity to buy stocks and real estate at a lower price. But let's be clear. Let's keep that only with the stock market, not with burning down the capital. Oh, sorry. Yes. Yes, you're absolutely right. To clarify. To clarify. And my eyes are not bleeding. That was a joke. Yes. Okay, good. Okay, good. Scott, I think that's a really good prediction. I really do. I like that. I like that. I like that. I think it's good. All right, Scott, that's the show.
Starting point is 01:01:49 Next week, we'll have Senator Mark Warner, someone both Scott and I know very well, to talk about he expects in the Senate for the impeachment and more. Because Senator Warner knows a lot about tech and et cetera, et cetera. So there's lots to talk about. Let's make an extra long discussion with him because he's a sharp cookie. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit your question for the podcast. The link is also in our show notes. Scott, please read us out. Today's show is produced by Rebecca Sinanis. Ernie Endretat engineered this episode. Thanks also to Hannah Rosen and Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify,
Starting point is 01:02:26 or frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. If you liked our show, please recommend it to a friend. Thank you to taxpayers. Thank you to scientists. Thank you to society. Thank you to humanity. Vaccines are a wonderful thing. Thank you so much.
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