Pivot - Let's Say Gay, The U.S. Bans Russian Oil, and Guest Jeffrey Sonnenfeld
Episode Date: March 11, 2022Florida's “Don’t Say Gay” has impacts for Pivot. Kara and Scott discuss the U.S. ban on Russian oil, and Biden’s executive order on cryptocurrencies. Also, Elon just wants his Twitter freedom... back. Friend of Pivot Jeffrey Sonnenfeld has been tracking all the companies that have left Russia... and the ones that have stayed. You can find Jeffrey on Twitter at @JeffSonnenfeld and can find his list here. Send us your Listener Mail questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or via Yappa, at nymag.com/pivot. Recorded 3/10/2022. Since recording, Burger King and Uniqlo have updated their positions on Russia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Hi, everyone.
This is Pivot from the Vox Media Podcast Network.
I'm Kara Swisher.
And so for my wife's birthday, she asked me to
take her out somewhere really expensive. So you know where I'm taking her? Where? A Chevron station,
Kara. A Chevron station. Who are you? You need to introduce yourself. Not everybody knows. I get it.
I get it. The prices are high. You know why I only date really fiery women? Okay, why? Because
someone's got to ask for unleaded, and it's not going to be me. It's not going to.
The dad jokes went over huge, so I'm going all dad jokes.
No, those aren't dad jokes.
I don't know what they are.
They're not even dad jokes.
I know what you're thinking.
You like the dirty jokes.
Okay, I have a dirty joke.
No, all right.
What do I now say right before I climax?
What do I say, Kara?
No, no.
Welcome to my TED Talk.
All right, that's enough, Scott Galloway. I Welcome to my TED Talk. All right. That's enough, Scott Galloway.
I'm Scott Galloway.
All right.
Today, the Biden administration says no to Russian oil and yes, maybe to cryptocurrencies.
We'll talk about that.
We're speaking with Yale professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld.
Hero.
You're a giant fan of his.
About companies that are still doing business in Russia.
He's been keeping track.
I know.
But first, a word about Florida.
Earlier this week, the state legislature passed the Don't Say Gay Bill, which it's called.
And the people who are for it don't like that name, but there you have it.
And Governor DeSantis is expected to sign it into law.
We take issue with this bill, and this is why we have decided to remove our business from Florida.
People may not agree with us, but we feel this bill, even though it doesn't
have the word gay in it, Governor DeSantis, is aimed at the LGBTQ people very clearly. And it's
one of these dog whistle bills in which they don't have to say something and they mask parental
rights for what is essentially targeting. They're using just like I call it critical gay theory,
essentially. There are things that they didn't like before they're using just like, I call it critical gay theory, essentially.
There are things that they didn't like before,
they're going after again using this bill.
It's got a lot in it
and there's lots of places to read about it.
I will put out as many links as possible,
both which I agree with and don't agree with,
but it should not be codified into law.
This is vast overreach.
If you're just someone who doesn't like government,
this is enormous overreach into schools. It's lacks of trust in teaching. It's solving, just like with
the trans issues, it's solving a problem that nobody really has and making people feel better
about parental rights. As someone who's a big-time parent, this is not what you need. If you have
problems with your schools, you deal with them on the local level, but it's ridiculous. And it's absolutely aimed at a certain group of people. Anyway, for that reason, we don't agree with it. We don't
like it. We think it's cruel and unnecessary and a dog whistle. We're moving next year's pivot out
of Miami. We had a great time. We love Miami. We love a lot of the politicians there. And we had
them on our stage. This isn't what we wanted. We were looking forward
to throwing a bigger and more expensive pivot next year in Miami, in the streets of Miami.
Now that's not going to happen, at least not in Florida. We have had contact from many people,
including governors of states, who are very happy to have us there. I get that people disagree on
what parents should be able to say to their kids in school and stuff like that, but this is just not the way to do it.
Scott, plenty of people in Florida oppose the bill, correct?
Yeah, and so let's be clear.
I mean, it's difficult to have total clarity around this decision because we asked, we went online and an HQ2 move said, where should Scott's man cave be?
Because that's where we're going to hold the next event. And people said Nashville or Austin, which also have their own problems.
I mean, we can't move every conference to San Francisco and Boston, right? But there is something
to be said about flexing your capitalist muscles and say, there's a lot of options. I'd rather
not spend money in Florida. I think you feel very. I think you speak to this with a specific resonance.
I'm learning from you on this. You said something that really I thought was very powerful.
A few episodes ago, you said, you know, Jewish kids are Jewish with their parents,
black kids are black with their parents, but gay kids oftentimes aren't gay with their parents.
And I had never really thought of it that way.
And then on the far left, made the mistake of thinking that they've been asked to protect
us from what offends us.
And then on the far right, they've made a trope of what threatens us.
And in the same week that they put out this bill to protect our children from teachers
who are trying to supposedly pull the gay out of them or talk about sex.
By the way, nowhere in Florida is sex part of the curriculum.
In K-30.
This isn't a problem.
It's not there.
falls under the same false flag, passed a law here, DeSantis-backed law called the election security law that creates more bureaucracy to investigate election fraud. And by the way,
DeSantis bragged that Florida came out of their election audit with a near-perfect score. There
is no election fraud in Florida. So what Republicans have decided to do is try and
scare people into believing that primary school teachers are trying to
talk your kids, talk about sex and trying to talk your kids into being gay.
And they are not.
I speak, I have exposure and experience here.
This isn't part of what is going on.
In addition, there's no election fraud, but they all want to go after the far right crazy.
So unfortunately, because of gerrymandering,
control the elections and say to them, we're protecting you from election fraud and from people that want to turn your kids gay or talk about sex. And guess what, folks? You need to
be talking about food insecurity among children. Kids aren't showing up to school and learning
about sex. They're not learning because they're fucking hungry. That's what we need you focused on.
So this is more of the same.
It is rather than doing their job and focusing on real problems, it's polarizing us.
It's tapping into the absolute, our worst instincts.
And it is a waste of government money.
It also takes the trust between teachers and parents, which has been eroded during the pandemic for sure.
But like at some point, this is not what the teachers are doing and let's say someone who went through this hiding in hiding and not being able to talk about things this is this will have a
chilling effect on anything that they don't know the the bill i don't even understand it it's so
broad and so strange and uh unnecessary it's really one of these things that everyone's going to watch themselves.
So one of the things that I'm getting a lot of, like, they're obviously bots.
You know, do you believe you clearly you're a groomer?
Nice try groomer, which is like a weird.
I hate the fact that the word that I use for keeping my dog clean is being used in this way.
It's so sick.
And literally like no one's grooming anybody.
This is crazy.
This is crazy and sick.
And the sickness is in your heads, the people that think this is correct.
You have a sickness.
You're like QAnon people that are screaming about pedophiles in the basement of a pizza place that doesn't have a basement.
It's insanity.
And also the idea that you could make anybody gay.
I mean, I'm not going to go into this, but you can't.
You can't stop them from being gay.
And you can't.
I grew two sons in the Castro of San Francisco.
Two lesbians raised them.
They are the straightest people.
We make straight people for you, by the way.
And Claire was spinning around in a tutu.
Now, I don't know what she's going to be, but I can't make her.
I just can't.
And I'm not interested in making her be anything.
And also, word on the other side, you can't make people straight either, folks.
It's kind of in the batter.
Let's get used to it.
Kind of in the batter.
You're just going to have to go with it.
Yeah.
Anyway, so let's just say, with laws like this, when there's similar states, actually in Texas, we can't be rewarded with our business.
You know what?
Ultimately, we're capitalists.
We don't want to spend money.
I like that narrative. But through the magic of capitalism, we're voting with our dollars and spending them elsewhere in a state that doesn't ask LGBTQ people and their children to feel shame.
Or just waste our money or try and gaslight us.
Do your goddamn job.
Yep, exactly.
Do your job and help children.
Focus on real issues.
Hunger.
There's lots of issues.
There's not enough funding to repair the damage that the pandemic has done to all of us in education,
whatever your side on this thing is.
Obviously, we have to focus on kids.
This is not focusing on, this is not protecting kids.
This is protecting insecure parents,
and it's not about parental rights,
and you're being played for a fool, and go for it.
If you want to do that,
we're not going to be there to join you for that one.
Anyway, that is our statement.
Thank you, Scott.
What's the city that's in the lead right now?
I have mine.
I have my favorite.
What's yours?
Oh, I like Palm Springs.
I like Colorado.
Palm Springs?
I'm thinking, you know,
by the way, we did operate
All Things D during Proposition 8,
but the government was trying to fight it.
That got through because of propositions.
It was touch and go on that one. We almost removed it from California, but then there was movement fight it. You know, that got through because of propositions. It was touch and go on that one.
We almost removed it from California,
but then there was movement against it.
In any case, Palm Springs, Boulder.
We're going to end up in Denmark.
Denmark.
Toronto.
I think Canada is kind of interesting.
I don't know.
Where do you want to go?
I think the leader right now,
and by the way,
I just want to be clear.
We are whores.
We can be bought.
Send me gifts.
Send me hats.
Send me plants.
Capitalism.
But here's the thing, we're expensive whores. We made fun of Jeff Bezos for this.
You know that.
You got that, right?
Who predicted it would be in D.C. or New York?
Because that's where he built his new midlife crisis man caves.
And guess what?
I was wrong.
It was both.
Anyways.
Where's your favorite man cave position?
I want to spend more time in the great state of Colorado, specifically Boulder.
So I think Boulder and I'm kind of fancy.
I like Aspen.
I think Aspen would be awesome.
But I'm leaning towards Colorado.
And we also like the governor and know him.
We do like him.
We do like him.
And by the way, I heard he lives with another man.
I'm not going to say the three-letter word.
They have children.
Do not say that.
They have children that are probably straight.
This is dangerous.
You're a danger to our children, Kara.
Whatever.
Anyway, we love Colorado.
We love all the states, by the way, that are not giant assholes like Florida today.
Anyway, that's it.
This does not represent Florida, by the way.
I just want to point that out. I know that. Anyway, that's it. This does not represent Florida, by the way. I just want to point that out.
I know that.
I know that.
By the way, again, who should we shout out to?
The mayors that we had at Pivot MIA?
Mayor Suarez.
And also Mayor Cava.
Yeah.
So we support you, and we would love to be there,
but no thank you.
And for those who say, you know, I just, whatever.
Have your opinion.
We're not going to be talking. You know what would be an outside? What? Speaking of international, you know, there's, I just, whatever. Have your opinion. We're not going to be talking.
You know what would be an outside?
What?
Speaking of international, you know what I think is the hottest city of 2022?
Stockholm?
Mexico City, Mexico.
I think Mexico City is the next hot spot.
I think it's the next Austin to Miami.
Okay.
By the way, I'm heading to Austin this afternoon.
Do you know what the temperature is in Austin right now?
What?
No.
It's 39 degrees.
It was advertised as warm.
It's the same temperature in Austin as it is in New York right now. I need No. It's 39 degrees. It was advertised as warm. It's the same temperature
in Austin as it is in New York right now. I need to speak to the manager. Well, Texas has its own
bag of tricks on that thing. But, you know, if Beto becomes governor, that could be an attractive
situation for the pivot people. Even though they have these shitty bills, we like, you know,
that kind of thing. But the guys who pass this bill are in office right now. Anyway, speaking of in office, Disney CEO Bob Chapik.
Is that Chapik?
Chapik?
Whatever.
I think that's because of Kara Swisher.
I think you heard Kara Swisher.
Oh, he may have.
Is now taking a stronger stance on the don't say gay bill.
We criticize Bob.
Earlier this week, he took a lot of flack for not directly condemning it.
Then on Wednesday, he told shareholders that he'd meet with Ron DeSantis to oppose the bill.
It had no effect because it was too late.
Bob, two.
Bob, one, on the other hand.
Iger tweeted in favor of, against the bill,
opposed the bill before it was passed.
I think he was, he's still living,
but he was rolling over in his grave, his CEO grave.
But he was a liberal leader.
I'm sorry.
He really was.
And he didn't do everything right either.
But boy, this Bob J. Pick is obviously –
Yeah, well, let's give Bob C. some credit.
I think a step back from the wrong direction is a step in the right direction.
He did what was right.
Sandeep Matrani, WeWork, initially said they weren't going to pull out.
It looks like they're going to pull out. It's not too late to do the right thing. It's never too late to do the right thing. All right. Sandeep Matrani, WeWork, initially said they weren't going to pull out. It looks like they're going to pull out.
It's not too late to do the right thing.
It's never too late to do the right thing.
Oh, right.
Okay.
I think Bob Seay got it right.
And by the way, this was an obvious one.
Disney?
Disney?
I mean, look at their products.
They've been having gay times.
Remember, they opened it up.
Look what their headquarters are, and they're going to piss off.
I mean, I'm going to go out on a limb here and
assume that they have a disproportionate number of incredibly talented people who identify very
strongly with the LGBT community. And for them to, this was just such a tone deaf move on his part.
It's true.
Anyways, but good for him.
Well, he shouldn't have yelled at ScarJo either. So he's got some of a, he's kind of a tough guy.
He yelled at ScarJo? What was that?
No, he's the one that put out that statement about Scarlett Johansson.
Remember the beef they had about over the payments with streaming?
They put out a statement about her that I was shocked that I would not have seen.
But now I think, okay, Bob, too, thank you for doing the right thing.
Let's talk about some news now.
Apple unveiled some new toys at its first event of 2022.
There were no cards, goggles, or game-changing phones.
Like we said, there wouldn't be.
There was a new entry in the popular iPhone SE line.
That's the one that still has a home button.
It's cheaper.
A new desktop product called the Mac Studio,
which looks small, powerful, and very expensive
per Apple tradition.
Are you going to get a new iPad Air?
I found this to be the least inspiring Apple event
I've seen in a while.
I mean, I usually watch it online
and try and get a feel for the new products.
I thought this was a giant yawn.
But anyways, they have, don't they call it tick and talk?
Why is it a yawn?
They're just putting out their new products.
It's like, don't be like, they can't just go magic every time.
Why not?
It's a $3 trillion company.
I know.
They'll come out.
When these glasses, you know, you're going to hush up when these glasses come out.
These AR multiverse glasses. It's about audio, not visual. I got you those for Christmas, so I'm hoping. You always lie. You know, you're going to hush up when these glasses come out. These AR multiverse glasses.
It's about audio, not visual.
I got you those for Christmas, so I'm hoping...
You always lie. You always say that. You never get me anything.
Not even a gesture. I don't even get a gesture from you.
You know, my mom called and said I didn't get her Christmas present.
I did, but that's okay.
You got her subscription to CNN+.
You're welcome, Lucky.
To see Scott Galloway.
Speaking of which, I'm so glad Jennifer Griffin
is on Fox News.
I gave a big shout out to her today.
Again, she was whacking down Hannity with facts.
And she's deproliferating my mother's propaganda, which is very, I'm very pleased.
She's deprogramming her?
Yeah, she's deprogramming her.
We put Lucky in a van and took her to some ranch and deprogrammed her.
Yes, it is.
No, she's the one.
That's what I say to my kids.
I say, these people are going to show up
in what looks like corporate wear,
but they're here to shock you,
put you in a van,
and then take you somewhere
and return a little boy that behaves.
I threaten them with that.
Is that wrong?
Don't do that.
That's a bad parenting move.
In any case,
Lucky is against the don't say gay bill,
just so you know.
She thinks it's ridiculous.
Is she?
Lucky.
Yeah, she's like, it's ridiculous.
What do we need it for?
Why don't they just yell at a teacher if they put dirty stuff?
I'm happy to hear that because I mean this sincerely.
Now that I'm sort of emotionally invested in you, I worry about your and her relationship.
I'm glad to hear that.
I would too.
It was very damaged by a lot of this stuff.
I can tell you it was very damaged by how she reacted.
And that is why these are bad bills.
damaged by how she reacted. And that is why these are bad bills. Anyway, speaking of someone who wants to return, Elon Musk wants to tweet without someone looking over his shoulder. Currently,
his tweets about Tesla have to be approved by company lawyers. Now he wants to judge,
throw that settlement out, saying it's become unworkable. Last month, Musk said the SEC was
trampling his First Amendment rights. And lest we forget, Musk and his brother Kimball are under
investigation for insider trading. Anyway,
he's on Twitter a lot.
Someone was like, do you believe what Elon
just said? I'm like, I can't keep track. I've done it.
By the way, congratulations. I think he just had another
baby.
He had another kid? Who did he have his kid with?
He did, with Grimes. That's what's being reported.
I thought they had brought, well, I don't care. It's his life.
His personal life. You know what? Families are complex.
Let's just say that. And not only that, I don't think it should be fodder for any media anywhere.
But unless you're the president and you have entitled weirdo kids.
I believe she talked about it.
I think that's what I saw.
In any case, what do you think about this Twitter thing?
Look, I do think this is, whereas the majority of issues big tech brings up are not First
Amendment issues, I do in fact think this is a First Amendment issue.
And I don't think the SEC should be in the business of infantilizing people and saying you can't tweet or you have to have this old white guy or gal review your tweets.
I think what they should do is say, okay, did you commit market manipulation?
Yes, you did.
We're going to actually grow a pair and do our fucking job and accuse you of market manipulation. Yes, you did. We're going to actually grow a pair and do our fucking job
and accuse you of market manipulation. And we aren't responsible for trying to dictate whether
or not you need a babysitter around your communications. This was just stupid. We should
decide whether you say something publicly on whatever platform. And if you are sending up a
flare saying the stock is worth 420 and you have funding secured and the market believes you and goes up, you are guilty of market manipulation.
They shouldn't be putting in place this weirdness.
Yeah, they should just fine them or do whatever.
You're right.
100%.
They are treated.
Elon, you should tweet whatever you want.
That's what I say.
And not only that, these things, so many of these people get upset around Twitter.
And this has happened to me and say, that's it.
I'm done with Twitter.
It's addictive.
In fact, Elon said that in 2019,
not sure about the good of Twitter going offline. He didn't really deliver on that.
Because the bottom line is, they're not only addicted to the dope that they get,
but they're addicted to the relevance and awareness. And no matter what the issue is,
they're going to weigh in because they are total narcissists. I can't imagine,
the worst thing that could happen to Trump was that he was kicked narcissists. I can't imagine. The worst thing that could happen
to Trump was that he was kicked off Twitter. I think he'd literally, if someone said,
you can be back on Twitter or president again, I think it'd be a toss-up for him because he
constantly needs to talk about stars or talk about... So, literally, they can't be, they cannot
not hear about themselves and see the reaction. They would rather be in the news in a negative way than not in the news.
Yeah.
Okay.
All right.
Well, Elon, tweet on, says us.
Yeah.
And SEC, do your job.
You're the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Enforce the laws.
You're not his godparent.
You're not his mentor.
You're not his mama.
That's right.
Let's get to our first big story.
The United States will ban all imports of Russian oil. That's a major
escalation in U.S. sanctions and one that will likely rise the price of gas, as Scott referenced
in our first joke that he told. President Biden acknowledges much. Here's what he said when
announcing the move. The decision today is not without cost here at home. Putin's war is already
hurting American families at the gas pump. Since Putin began his military buildup on Ukrainian borders, just since then, the price
of the gas at the pump in America went up 75 cents. And with this action, it's going to go up
further. I'm going to do everything I can to minimize Putin's price hike here at home.
Okay, that was genius. Putin's war and Putin's price hike. And of course, the Republicans
are trying to hang this around the Democrats' neck, even though now they're supporting this thing.
It can get very political. Who does it hurt more, the Russians or the United States?
U.S. buys about 10% of Russians' exported oil. Russian oil made up 8% of oil imports last year.
And over 70% of Americans, though, say they're willing to ban Russian oil, even if it means
they have to pay more for gas, according to a new poll.
I thought that we only got about 3% and represented only about 1% of their exports in Germany.
You know, in the Netherlands, you're talking about 20 or 30%.
It's just not that big a deal for us.
And gasoline prices are so visible because when you think about it, when you're driving around town, you don't see – you see a for sale sign on a house, but you don't
see signs everywhere that says 800 grand for this house. Whereas every third block, you see this
giant billboard with a number on it and it's gas prices. So gas prices relative to our collective
awareness around what's going on in the economy play a much outsized role. Because the reality
is even with these price hikes, Cara, as a percentage of
our disposable income, gas prices have consistently gone down in terms of how much it costs relative
to our disposable income. I bet over the last 40 years, even with these price hikes, the gas is
probably as one of the few categories where the prices have not outpaced inflation. In addition,
higher prices will provide more cloud cover for increased
investments in renewables. And also, at the end of the day, and this is where the leadership vacuum,
where I think Biden really could have stepped into an opportunity here, I think he should have
declared some sort of emergency, almost like a wartime act, and said, we're going to build
two dozen nuclear power plants, and we're going to get off these very heinous fossil fuels.
And at the same time,
drill, baby, drill for the next three to five years. Let's become, we are a net exporter of
energy at this point. But my sense is, let's get totally off the crack. It's also having
interesting second order effects. Did you notice that Venezuela released an American
political prisoner?
Because you know why?
I'm sure Biden has gone there.
And I'm sure – and not only that.
No, they did.
No, they did.
They were very explicit.
This, in a weird way, it might create a thaw in our relationship with Iran.
Because all of a sudden, America is like, you know what?
We need more reliable supply chain around oil, which includes going to zero.
It's going to be – it's very complicated on the Russian level,
because like everything that comes down to supply chain, your ability to actually move
this liquid. And in the US, we're good at producing heavy or refining heavy crude,
but not light crude. And in Russia, they've built an infrastructure to transfer it into Europe,
whereas they're now going to have to build an infrastructure to transfer it into China.
But what we're seeing is the world's largest, I'm hopping all over the place, I apologize,
but we're going to see the world's largest LBO. And that is at 5 million barrels a day,
at the natural hedge of gasoline or oil prices going up, we're going to see Putin pull off what
is the world's largest in history LBO and use that oil revenue to take the depressed prices of companies
private.
And we saw that this week.
So what's going on here is fascinating.
But I don't think it really, like, it's not going to tank our economy.
Well, probably not.
No, everything's up right now.
But, you know, it's not, I think it'll be a political issue, for sure.
It seems that polling people are for it, including not drinking Russian vodka.
And the pictures coming out of Ukraine are insane, like the bombing of hospitals. And it makes it
a lot of cover for Biden to say, sorry, we can't take this gasoline. Also, the greater electric
car adoption. Electric cars are 10% of the US market by 2026. It should be higher, I would
think. Tesla stock is up, by the way, on the
Biden announcement. There you go. Even though he's mad Biden never says Tesla's name, it's still
doing rather well. Well, you know, there's a bill. Don't say Tesla to second graders.
That's the new Biden state plan in Florida. That's one of the things. The person who wrote
that bill, by the way, admitted what he was doing. He's like, people get famous when they get gay. I
was like, oh my God.
They get famous?
I got the shit beat out of me by my mother,
for goodness sake, not hitting, not physically.
But you know what I mean?
Like, are you kidding me?
Like, yeah, it's the celebrity that's so fantastic.
Anyway, Tesla's doing well.
Oil companies, they could get access
to more drilling sites.
There's been a lot more approval of drilling sites than
obviously the Keystone Pipeline for temporary, but we have to get off of it. That's really it.
Because then they went to Saudi Arabia. Apparently, the bone saw guy didn't call us back.
Let's get away from that guy immediately. Other than Norway, pretty much everyone you buy oil
from is not who you want to be doing business with. Right, exactly. The UK will phase out Russian oil by the end of the year.
The EU says it will wean off Russia by 2030.
Let's wean off oil.
Let's do that.
Let's wean.
Don't use the word wean.
Don't say wean.
Don't say wean because that's a sexual word.
No, it's not.
China and India could buy up the excess Russian oil at a discount.
The U.S. could import oil from Venezuela.
China's a winner here.
Yeah.
Anyway, one of the things that's interesting, and this is a sidelight, not having to do
with oil, but one of the other areas of high growth is cybersecurity, and Google plans
to buy a cybersecurity firm.
It's a consulting firm, Mandiant, for over $5 billion.
Mandiant famously uncovered the SolarWinds hack of 2020 that infiltrated the U.S. government.
Russia is believed to be responsible. The U.S. government. Russia is believed to be responsible.
The U.S. government could stop the Google-Mandiant deal on antitrust grounds.
There were others looking at it.
I'm to understand that Microsoft didn't make an offer.
It was too high, and they're actually very good at the consulting business.
Google has been very light in the consulting area, and this gets them into it rather quickly.
Mandiant has a great reputation.
So just, you know, this is going to
be another good business for a lot of tech businesses, cybersecurity in heavy in the way
that cloud is, I think. I can't imagine an industry that on a risk-adjusted basis, you know,
is just going to grow for the next 10 years. Yeah, it's a lot of money for this. I think a lot about,
you know, young people, especially young men. And I'm like, if you don't want to go to a four-year
college, you're just not cut out for it, which two-thirds of American youth don't end up
with a traditional BA. If you like technology, if you're relatively good at math, if you're kind of
a systems thinker or can recognize patterns, try and figure out a way to get some type of
certification around cybersecurity. I just think there's going to be a line out the door for people
with these skills. I'm thinking of leaving us and doing that now that you keep pushing.
You're just thinking of leaving us.
Don't blame it on that bitch cybersecurity.
You haven't touched me in years.
Welcome to my TED Talk.
Do not say that to the kids.
We're going to have a list of things you don't say to the kids, and it's mostly you.
Like, I couldn't believe you behaved last week.
I just want to tell you, he didn't behave at first. We had to retape that.
So, in any case.
I got way too dirty.
You know what?
They should have a law in Florida against Scott Galloway being, like, within.
Don't say dog.
Dog.
Near anyone.
Near anyone, really.
But I don't.
I just have a question because I don't understand this acquisition.
Is it they're going to incorporate those technologies and flip them on as a component of Google Cloud?
Or are they looking to get into the consulting business?
No, they need a consulting firm.
It's a consulting business, and they're bad at it.
Google's now in consulting?
Sort of, yeah.
Google's bad in consulting.
Microsoft does a lot of consulting around its software.
Oh, really?
They want to be in the consulting?
They want to be.
It's consulting and also helping.
Are they going to wrap it into their bigger Google Cloud contract?
I suppose, yeah.
I need to speak to Sundar.
Plus, I want him as a friend.
I think he would save me
from myself a lot.
I need him and you
texting me late at night
telling me what a fucking idiot I am.
You don't want Sundar
texting late at night.
He's a very nice guy,
but he's not a very interesting texter.
Oh, smell you,
says the woman
who gets late night texts
from Sundar.
I get late night texts
from other people,
not Sundar.
I bet you do,
you saucy minx. I do, I do, Iar. I bet you do, you saucy minx.
I do.
I bet you do.
Like the governor of Colorado, and we will never be together as opposite gays.
Jared?
I like Jared.
Governor.
Governor Polis.
We need to call him by his title.
I'm telling you, I'm announcing it now.
I like to have candidates right up front.
My 2024 ticket, my dream ticket is Senator Klobuchar
and Governor Polis. He said to me in an interview, he's not interested in going further. Oh, yeah,
right. None of them are. Every morning they wake up in the mirror and they say, good morning,
Mr. President. No, I don't think so. I think he's telling the truth. Anyway, he has tons of money.
He doesn't need to, he doesn't need anything. You don't run for president for money unless
you're Donald Trump. Anyway, let's go on a quick break.
When we come back, the Biden administration gives a tentative thumbs up to crypto.
We'll be speaking with our friend of Pivot, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld.
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Scott, we're back.
President Biden has put out an executive order on cryptocurrencies.
The order calls for the government to research into the risks and benefits of crypto as well as possibly a digital dollar.
It's a plus for the crypto industry
because there were no new regulations yet,
but he's getting the agencies to think about it.
I thought it was, I read the whole damn thing.
I can't believe it.
But it was, I think it was bullish
and it did talk about the problems of crypto,
but it's felt like someone
saying, you know, this internet thing might be good and let's look into it.
That's what it, like back in the 90s.
And the crypto sector really liked it.
Others did not.
Ted Cruz didn't like it.
He always has the worst hot take on any current issue around.
But anyway, what do you think?
So every morning, my oldest, my 14-year-old, gets up, gets showered, feeds the dogs,
cleans up after the dogs, and is literally in the car with his backpack on and his homework ready,
looking at flashcards and ready to go to school.
My youngest wakes up.
I have to go in there, wake him up, and then go back in three or four times,
at which point he's gone full, like, plague. I have to go in there, wake him up, and then go back in three or four times. And at which point he's gone full like plague.
I have to plague.
I cannot go to school today.
And at some point I start yelling at him.
And all he said, he'll scream back, I'm awake.
Like, that's it.
I'm awake.
I feel like this thing was a giant.
We're awake.
We actually understand the words crypto.
We're awake.
Because I read
through it and it said to me, like, they just want to say, all right, we're not asleep at the
switch here and we're going to do something. But I got no sense for what any of this means in terms
of whether they're going to, how they're going to regulate it. Well, they were worried, cryptocurrency
people were worried about bad regulation, bad quick regulation rather than thoughtful.
Thoughtful. I don't think they wanted to slow it down.
I think they had been asking for regulation.
I think it's a good idea to get on this.
But I think they were expecting bad regulation or people that are, there's a lot of sort
of in the media and also in regulation, crypto, they're all a bunch of grifters, essentially,
which is not true.
And so I think, you know, I felt it was the right thing.
It was measured. It was like, we need to look at this. I've directed them to do so. This digital dollar
thing is interesting. I don't know if it would work. Again, I think it's the right thing to do.
You over there, you know, this department, you do this. Justice department, look at this. I don't
know. There's 60% of the US population is invested in crypto. I think lots more people will in the
future. It's like the internet. It's like the internet.
It's like the internet.
All right, but I'm telling you,
if your ass isn't in the car in five minutes,
we're leaving without you.
Okay, it's a good thing for the crypto people.
In any case, let's bring in our friend of Pivot.
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is a senior associate dean
at Yale School of Management and the founder of the Chief Executive Leadership Institute.
He's been tracking the comings and goings of companies in Russia since the conflict began in a list that's updated daily.
Welcome, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld.
Thank you. It's an honor to join you. I'm delighted to be with you, Karen Scott. Thanks.
Okay. So let's, I know you've been on a lot of shows, so I'm glad you remembered our name. Thank you so much. It's sort of a Kara Swisher schedule for these days.
So let's talk a little bit about that, what you've been putting out in this list. So first of all,
tell me, why did you decide to start doing this? And then let's go into the specifics of the list.
It's two of the most honest people in public discourse about business impact on society.
You know why this was needed. This is the only interview where I would have to explain it. But it's because the
viewers don't know what you know through your lifetime experience. And that is the dangerous
qualities of spin out there. When the three of us began, whatever it is we do, we could call
early in the morning and often reach a CEO or find a way to trap somebody in a corner office.
These days, they're so overprotected,
overmanaged with lieutenants and palace guards around them that the spin is so distracting and misleading. So as I saw a couple of companies, there's, you know, war broke out on the 24th.
We saw a few companies that moved early. And I thought, well, that's great. And you saw the
Klingon effect of people putting out these gauzy messages with quasi-trade group type things, with trying to look like they're nonprofits or whatever they are, putting out this weird mixes of five or six of these good guy companies. attorneys, but we want to unpack the language. As we started to do that, we realized there's a lot less here than meets the eye in some cases and more in others. And so we started to come out
with a crude sort. Now we're up to 330 companies as it's constantly moving, almost 340 now,
that have decisively curtailed their operations. And there are about 40 that are intransigent and
digging in their heels. We try to understand that, but the impact it has is that the CEOs who had courage
to step out in front
are often inspired
the not so courageous CEOs
or the ones who don't have
the support of their boards.
So they do what people
in the business jargon world
will call the benchmarking.
They want pure affirmation.
So putting out the good guys list,
they can see there's a, there's a, you know, a thundering herd there of people moving with you.
Don't worry. Those are worried about. Although, although most, most of the focus has been on the
bad guy, not the bad guy. I don't want to say that because it's a difficult, let me just say,
it's a difficult decision to do this. And there's lots of reasons why you wouldn't, or you would,
it's very complex. They've got partnerships. It's not as easy as I'm just going to stop buying,
you know, Russian vodka or whatever people do, consumers.
So talk about what the difficulty of doing this is
and what's the decision to stay or go.
As you said, 300 companies have left Russia,
but many notable ones remain.
In tech, Cloudflare, a banking, Citi, Consumer Goods,
Kimberly-Clark, which makes clean-outs, Huggies, and Scott Tissues. Hyatt, Hilton, and Marriott are
still there. Whirlpool, Consumer Electronics. Mondelez, which makes Oreos, Toblerone, and Ritz
is still there. Energy, Hal Burton. Well, I didn't expect them ever to leave anywhere.
But, well, others have left, including Apple, Credit Suisse, Procter & Gamble, American Airlines, McDonald's, and Coca-Cola, Exxon, Shell, BP.
So how does the decision to stay or go happen?
You know, not to flatter my host here again and sound like I'm pandering.
Oh, please do. Scott likes it.
There's a logic here, but it's not a logic we've seen before. As we've both been tracking social engagement,
all three of us, with leaders for a long time, it's usually the consumer products firms that
are the first movers because they're very sensitive to customer feedback, boycotts and things.
That wasn't the case here. Nike, Adidas, H&M, and if you count Apple or whatever as consumer-oriented,
those are almost the entirety of the early movers in terms of consumer goods. Most of the rest of
consumer goods, the packaged goods companies, the fast food, fashion, fragrances, were some of the
last to move. Who moved first? Well, it was people that have entanglements, I guess, with oligarchs
and complex state-owned enterprise things. So I understand them pulling out.
They basically had to.
And companies that can't get product in because of transportation sanctions, okay, they had to.
But then there are a lot of others that were shocking.
The professional service firms, as long as we've been doing this, you have to admit, we've never seen the law firms and the accounting firms, consulting firms,
We've never seen the law firms and the accounting firms, consulting firms, Bain, McKinsey, BCG,
and EY, Deloitte, PwC, KPMG, Grant Thornton, and others, now 16 law firms.
They'd usually rather shoot themselves and actually take a position on geopolitical conflicts.
But it isn't consumer feedback that they worry about. And it's not even the plunging response from investors that we saw on Monday as we posted our list and their stock fell on a day where the market indices were down
three to 5%. Their stocks went down 25 to 30%. No, these companies, they're privately owned
partnerships. It's the revolt from within. Whether or not it's a pandemic to endemic stuff,
the voice in independence or Gen Z or the Resign. But the internal chat groups and the feedback of these professionals saying they're ashamed of what we're doing in there.
Then there are those who stay that say, oh, we have this big workforce.
And in the spirit of perestroika, we went in there in the 90s as a brand of liberation and freedom.
We've built these bridges between East and West.
And we don't want to shatter all that public trust now with the general citizenry.
And how do we go back in if it looks like,
you know, we hate Russian and stuff?
So that is a tortured explanation.
It shows a mind war.
Sure, sure.
But you have it.
So, Scott, go ahead.
I just should disclose that Jeffrey Sonnenfeld
is a hero of mine.
I think if you were to distill the conscious of capitalism
down to some sort of animated, it would look something like Jeff Sonnenfeld is a hero of mine. I think if you were to distill the conscious of capitalism down to some sort of animated, it would look something like Jeff Sonnenfeld. Jeff, I was fascinated by how the EU used bigger nations with more gravitas and put them in the room with smaller nations to get a unanimous vote or give them the confidence of the cloud cover to vote in favor of sanctions.
cover to vote in favor of sanctions. Are you comfortable disclosing who are your sort of go-tos in the business world that you feel have so much gravitas and so much power
that you want them out front? Well, these days they'll sound like they're retirees,
but they weren't at the time. But the people that I'll often go to just among we friends
is that, of course, Ken Frazier of Merck is the gold standard. You remember the
last line in Enemy of the People, Ibsen says the strongest person in the world is the person who
could stand alone. That's Ken Frazier, of course. And Indra Nooyi, she married the whole idea of
performance with purpose before he became such a cliche. She actually shows that doing good
is not antithetical to doing well. Those are two who stand out. There are a number of other in the
media space that may surprise you, especially given the headlines the last 24 hours. But,
Bob Iger of Disney has been a less public, but certainly firm standard bearer. And I know you both know him and his
space so well. Those are a couple that stand out. There's Brad Karp of Paul Weiss, who has been a
very effective, quiet agent for change in the professional services world. So, there are a few
offhand. So, I'd also love to know that you have to balance or where's the fulcrum between a very powerful agent of capitalism is the for-profit incentive.
And at the end of the day, these CEOs are responsible for earnings.
At the same time, they're also stakeholders in social capital on a much larger ecosystem. How do you personally decide, how do you personally draw that line when you see an issue around the pandemic or behavior or around the invasion of Ukraine?
When do you decide this is where we really need to call on folks and start putting pressure on them?
the condemnation that would come in from the right in the media labeling socially engaged CEOs somehow that it's an insincere political correctness. And on the left in the media or
elsewhere, just cynical management, just seeing that they're out there similarly for cosmetic
reasons and that it's not authentic. And there are a lot of good critiques on both sides on that front,
but it's not fair. The reality is these business leaders are largely political centrists,
and they're not driven by ideologies. They're largely pragmatists and problem solvers.
And as they see issues, and when people on the right say, oh, do they take on this issue or that issue? And then they talk about the slippery slope of every human injustice. Does a corporation have to do that or take care of the shareholders?
Well, even Friedman in the much misquoted or certainly misunderstood statement that he wrote
in the New York Times Magazine in 1970 said that he talked not just about the shareholders,
you know, the bottom line being the only responsibility of business. He talked about something called social and community responsibilities. And in there, he talked about social amenities,
was his actual term for it. And it had to do with being a responsible employer and community member.
Even he acknowledged it, but it's been distorted. It's sort of like that Robert Frost never said
that good fences make good neighbors. That was not the intention of his poem.
In fact, you read the next verse, he says just the opposite.
And Rudyard Kipling never said east is east and west is west,
never the chains will meet.
Until you read the next verse, he's saying just the opposite.
So there's been an arc distortion of Milton Friedman
for people's delight and pleasure.
So it isn't a, people say, well, stay in your lane then.
Well, your lane is understanding the geopolitical context. And it matters if you have a breakdown in trust in society that free markets, the spirit of volunteerism, which we all celebrate.
He also talked about a term that people think was coined last year, social capital.
And he said social capital is more valuable than financial capital.
And he saw that as distinctive in America.
We don't legally prescribe everything.
The laws are intended to be written to be loose.
We adapt to them because of the foundation of public trust.
And as that trust is being eroded for a lot of the issues we talk about at other times,
including this one,
then business leaders need to step in,
whether or not it's patriotism or personal values
or enlightened self-interest, they all converge.
Well, I do know they get exhausted too at the same time
during the Trump administration.
At one point, a tech CEO was like,
which one, we're going to just split them all up
and each take one essentially.
And so, and they also have from the bottom, as you say, employees, then they've given them voice to complain about whatever the issue of the day happens to be. And in some cases, like with masking or the pandemic, people in the company have different opinions. And so they have a real, you know, they have a real fight on their hands. And some companies like have opted, if you remember, there's a couple of companies are like,
we don't, don't bring it to work. Don't bring those kinds of things to work. When it comes to
Russia, it's been uniformly do something about it, like do something about it. So I'm going to take
the other side. Why should, why, not that it's virtue signaling, why should people do this? Why,
in this case with Russia, Uniqlo's founder, for example, said he won't pull out of Russia because,
quote, clothing is a necessity of life. What are the drawbacks of cutting off a country in this way
for a company? I think in reality, the drawbacks are very much overstated. A drawback is there'll
be some residual ill will
when the situation is resolved and they try to reenter that market. Or there'll be a denial
on some humanitarian reasons that Abbott Labs and AbbVie and Amersaurs Bergen are arguing that we
need to be providing drugs in there. And in fact, those drugs are helping injured Ukrainians. If
there's anybody in Ukraine who's taking some pills from Vladimir Putin's factories,
I think they must be crazy.
We can't even ascertain the safety of what's being produced there.
Nobody from those companies and the senior leadership, no scientist, can even electronically
surveil what's going on there, let alone personally visit.
How can they responsibly operate there?
I think it's dangerous.
I think it's a mistake.
I think there's not going to be residual ill will.
As we saw in South Africa, when those 200 companies meaningfully joined in the late
1980s with government sanctions, government sanctions, by the way, led by the U.S., were
over Ronald Reagan's veto.
As you'll recall, it was Mitch McConnell and a Republican Senate who overrode Reagan's veto. As you'll recall, it was Mitch McConnell and a Republican Senate who overrode
Reagan's veto. But the argument that President Reagan used was it was going to hurt the well-being
of Black Africans to impose these sanctions. And as Bishop Tutu told me personally,
said, who is he to speak on behalf of us? We want the corporate sector to give more teeth to these governmental
sanctions with these blockades. And that made all the difference. To strangle civil society,
to bring it to a halt, is what they need to do. That's what Gandhi did. That's certainly how he
got rid of Erich Honecker in East Germany. That's how he got rid of Nicolae Ceausescu in Romania.
It's when civil society fails, it shows that the tyrant is not the
totalitarian success he or she claims they are. In this case, it's always a he, really, that has
the stranglehold, and that shows an impotence on the part of the leader that will lead somebody to
fail. So they're received as heroes afterwards. It's sort of like the palace guard in The Wizard
of Oz, where after she throws the bucket of water and the witch is destroyed, that the guard nails
and says, hail Dorothy. They'll be received as the liberators. So it'll be a good thing.
So there's a difference between Gillette pulling out and a Google or a Facebook or an Apple. Some
companies just have more impact than others. We think a lot about big tech. Are you comfortable
saying who you believe in big tech has taken a leadership role around these issues at the expense or the cost of shareholder value? And rather, not necessarily naming names, but which companies maybe have been slower than they should have been?
names. I think Citrix has been a disappointment. I think Cloud has been a disappointment.
And with most of the digital currency people, Coinbase has been great. But the others have been enablers. With a libertarian spirit, they don't realize that they are serving.
They're operating as servants to a tyrant. If you don't like totalitarian control, then why are you enabling payment systems?
And even if it's just skirting minimally the SWIFT system and Visa, PayPal, MasterCard,
American Express, even the Chinese banks, despite what President Xi Jinping is saying
publicly and equivocating, slightly leaning towards Russia, the China Industrial Development Bank has cut off, curtailed all financing into Russian companies, is that we
shouldn't have our cyber currency people, our digital currency people, cryptocurrency people
flooding the market there. If it's even only helping the cognizant and the oligarchs,
it's a bad thing. So those are the ones that disappoint me. But shockingly, Michael Dell,
oligarchs. That's a bad thing. So those are the ones that disappoint me. But shockingly,
Michael Dell, who is, you know, would not be out there as from the mountaintops, flamboyant statements. He's always more subtle. He was a very first mover. And Tim Cook, very impressively,
and I'll say what we will on other occasions about meta and Google and things, they were right out
front. Did this hurt shareholders? No, I think it was brand enhancing. And many of the ways where
Tim Cook has been such a forceful, as you both have talked about, defender of privacy, sometimes
it cost them a little in the short term, but it was a huge return, they thought, for reinforcing
the value of the brand. I think these companies have done their shareholders themselves, their
reputations a lot. And they needed that. And they sort of needed that, correct? They did. In some
way. Some of them did, for sure. And I think Facebook moving quickly, and I suspect that's Nick Clegg's influence.
You know, even IBM moved right away, right up front, and HP and their competitors.
Yeah, I admire that.
What two or three companies would have the most impact who have not acted?
If you could pick two or three companies to stop doing business tomorrow that would have the most impact who have yet to seize operations there, what would those two or three companies be?
Well, some of them wouldn't have the greatest consumer awareness, but enough ad agencies that
haven't left. Like WP did leave, that took out Ogilvy and Mather and J. W. Thompson and Younger
Rood. That was great, but late. But companies that are there, Dentsu, which is some very bad stuff that's being produced with
slick propaganda, Dentsu should not be there. Interpublic Group, shame on them. How could
they still be there? That would have some tangible effect. Burger King, you talk about the franchise
arrangements they have. Well, others with franchises have figured this out. Starbucks
and McDonald's, which didn't have much as franchises, they figured out how to work
around this. Yum Brands has figured out some bypasses,
buybacks, curtailing new investment.
Burger King defiantly staying in there
is, I think, symbolically a bad thing.
But AbbVie and Immersource Bergen
and some players that are quite large there.
Ferragamo, it isn't 1% of Ferragamo's business.
It's just symbolically stupid.
Why are they there?
So those are some that I would go for offhand.
That just doesn't make sense to me.
And then the oil services companies,
what are they doing now with the blockades
of Halliburton and Baker Hughes and others?
Yeah, okay.
So if you were a Russian CEO,
this is my last question,
and Scott may have one more.
If you were a Russian CEO in tech
or finance or consumer goods, how would you respond to these sanctions? What is happening
within Russia? There's obviously Wall Street banks are buying up the debt of Russian companies
right now. How would you deal right now as a Russian CEO? I would try for asylum as fast
as possible. It's hard to operate at the top of these companies in an honest, transparent way.
Right now, the leaders of those companies, it's like being the CEO of IG Farben under Hitler.
What should the CEO of IG Farben do to survive?
They should resign and surrender their citizenship and get the hell out of Dodge.
What do you really think, Jeffrey?
Stop being so coy, would you please?
How can you not love this guy?
I'm replacing Scott with you now.
That was a good one.
That happened 10 years ago and it's still happening.
Jeff, use this as weapons.
Let's just assume people buy into this,
are inspired by the leadership you and many of
these CEOs have demonstrated. What can people in the media, what can people with platforms,
what can consumers do? You know, there are a lot of ways by taking a look at this list,
and again, it's continually updated so we don't hear from too many attorneys within an hour,
is that they certainly affect their buying decisions,
their employment decisions. This is one thing that I think the three of us have had mixed
feelings about some of the generational attributes that come along in consumer marketing theories.
When it comes to Gen Z, I think sometimes the baby boomers drop the ball.
Consciousness 3 has been knocked unconscious. But when it comes to Gen Z, at least for now,
overwhelmingly, it affects where they buy, where they seek employment, and where they invest.
So I would certainly heavily market towards where a lot of your audience is a younger,
influential, enormous audience. And the people who pay attention to your show, your operation,
and your podcast are the people that I think should be paying attention to these lists and affecting their decisions.
That's in a major way.
I also would like Gina Raimondo and the Commerce Department to have a sharper eye on what some of these companies are doing.
Just between us, there are some universities that we should be holding accountable.
doing. Just between us, there are some universities that we should be holding accountable. Up until last week when I outed, don't cut me off on this, but MIT actually had Victor Beckelsberg on their
board while knowingly a sanctioned oligarch until we pointed that out and then he was removed.
And they still took hundreds of millions of dollars from him and others without publicly
disclosing this for very sensitive work on AI, cryptocurrency,
and some much scarier things I won't mention on air that we uncovered that MIT was doing in a
large way that other universities were retreating from. And universities that we talk about in
China similarly have been making mistakes. I don't think they were trying to actively
sabotage national security, but there's a naivete and recklessness in the university world that we need to be, you know, you remember Voltaire's Candide, there was a, there was a philosopher
in there called Pangloss, who's his mentor advisor. Pangloss in Greek means windbag.
And he, and what Candide's lesson was that I guess what we have to do with all the horrors
in the world is clean up our own act. It was, it was cultivate your own, your own garden,
Voltaire had said.
And I really think that's also an important takeaway.
We should look in our own employers, our own institutions.
How well are we doing?
And I think in the university world, I think we need to match the standards that we often use when we're criticizing corporations.
Well, that is speaking to the choir of Scott Galloway.
Scott, start to look into NYU immediately.
Anyway, Jeffrey, thank you so much.
We really appreciate it.
For anybody who wants to find this,
the list is online.
We'll put the link in our show notes.
But Jeffrey, you're doing really great work
and it's really important to just show,
not just tell, just show what they're doing.
And that's it.
Stay strong, my brother.
Stay strong.
Yeah, just drop it.
I'll send the attorneys your way. Thank you. Thank you. All right. Thanks, Jeffrey. Well done. Thanks,, my brother. Stay strong. Just drop it. I'll send the attorneys your way. Thank
you. Thank you. All right. Thanks, Jeffrey. Thanks, Jeff. Well done. Thanks. Bye-bye.
All right, Scott, one more quick break. You really love him, don't you? He really is.
I think Professor Sonnenfeld is the most influential academic in the world today.
When shit gets real, we're talking about pandemic response. We're talking about
invasions of sovereign nations. He is the only person that can overnight get 50
of the 100 biggest CEOs on a Zoom call that night. I have a lot of interaction with Jeff. He gets
together not only in the business world, in the academic world, he brings together twice a year,
the presidents, chancellors, and provosts of kind of the 100 biggest universities in the nation.
And he invites me to these things. And he calls me before and he says, I'll sorry, the presidents, chancellors, and provosts of kind of the 100 biggest universities in the nation. And he invites me to these things.
And he calls me before and he says, I'll say, what do you want me to do?
And he's like, I want you to provoke and anger them.
Oh, no, that's why you like him.
And then I say something stupid and he steps in and protects me.
But he really wants to catalyze a conversation.
And he's not afraid to call these CEOs out by name and say, hey, Cloudflare,
get out of Russia. And by the way, you know, we just want to say to all these companies,
you're eventually going to leave. Just get out of there. Just do it now. Anyway, but
Professor Sonnenfeld, he really is, he is making an enormous difference.
All right, Scott, I'm glad that that's your hero.
We'll be back for predictions.
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Okay, Scott, predictions? Predict something. We did very well last week. Two of our
things went well. Well, no, I'm just doubling down. I can't, so for the life of me, I can't
figure out when, so when Russia absorbed or usurped or whatever the term is, Crimea, Crimea, Crimea, I could sort of – you thought, okay, on a risk-adjusted basis, maybe this made sense for them.
For the life of me, I can't understand the endgame here because a stat that is just really stuck in my mind is it takes five times as many troops to occupy a nation as to invade it.
This is supposed to be the easy part.
I mean, look at how fast we invaded Iraq.
And then look at how damaging and how difficult it was to try and occupy it or nation build and all the other brain-dead things we did over there.
But I don't understand the endgame here.
And the only thing I can think of, and we talked about this on Tuesday, and it's my prediction, I think
the world's largest leveraged buyout is Putin is going to take the largest companies in Russia,
take them private, and then he's going to redoll out these companies to the new generation of
oligarchs. So my prediction is sort of- Oh, so he's going to find new oligarchs. Well, this is my prediction. I think an influencer is about a really big influencer
in social media, who's maybe Russian or maybe not, is about to become a billionaire.
Oh, interesting.
Because Putin is basically going to reabsorb all the industrial conglomerates,
buy them on the cheap, and then he's going to start doling them out again.
Dictators and oligarchs are very smart at rewarding their allies. They are very smart.
So Abramovich, who owns Chelsea FC, I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that maybe he
isn't the genius businessman that his tens of billions would connote, but he happened to be
Yeltsin's roommate and told Yeltsin to pick Putin, and Putin rewarded him with the ability to buy yachts
and huge townhouses and one of the better Premier League teams. So, he's going to do the same thing.
He's going to take that shit back. Putin came to power by diminishing some oligarchs and ascending
others, and he's about to do the same thing again. All right. I like it. I like it. I think
it'll be interesting. I can't wait to see what Russian star gets that.
And he's going to take
all these assets back
and he's going to say,
all right,
sell it back to me
for pennies on the dollar
or you're found dead
on a bench in a London park
and you'll still be,
maybe it'll be worth
one billion,
not 10 billion.
And then he'll start
re-dolling it out
to the next generation
of influencers.
Who are loyal to him.
That's right.
He can't live forever.
Anyway,
interesting,
Stephanie Rule,
last night on the 11th hour, which I watch regularly.
What time is it on?
11 o'clock, the 11th hour.
Oh, thank you.
Thank you.
Okay, thank you.
The former ambassador to the Ukraine who fell into Rudy Giuliani's crosshairs,
Marie Yovanovitch, was on.
And she said, Russians might win this war, but they'll never win the peace.
I thought that was a great line.
Well, when do they and when do we learn?
I mean, we both went into Afghanistan and then tried to hold it, and that didn't work out well.
It's their turn next.
It's also, quite frankly, it's a time for some soul-searching and some uncomfortable mirror-gazing about what we did in Iraq and how many hundreds of thousands of Iraqis we killed. And by the way, fortunately for us, social media wasn't there.
These people just didn't float off to a better place. They were brutally killed. They died under
rubble. Yeah. Although, nonetheless, it's tragic what's happening to these people's lives and
pointless. I keep thinking this is pointless. This is so stupid to do this. And here we are. And no one's going to win
anything. It's like Trotsky said, you may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.
And it's kind of the failure of our species, if you will. And that is that if we can't figure
out ways to solve stuff politically, economically, we go to it militarily. And amongst other things,
war turns good people into murderers. And it
absolutely ravages a generation of young people who were born at the wrong place in the wrong time.
Exactly.
It's just, I mean, it really is a, it's kind of the failure of our species is that it still is,
we kind of go through, you know, this, can we solve it this way? Can we solve it this way?
And then we go to military. And it's just military.
And I can't for the life of me figure out
what his end game is here.
I just don't get it.
I also believe that we are,
and I'm going geopolitically,
making a big mistake,
and that is we're rewarding his reputation
for being crazy.
We're saying, okay, don't do this
because he's crazy.
I don't think he's crazy.
Anyway, but I don't. This will impact us probably
in more ways than just increased gas prices. Indeed, in any way. We love hearing from our
listeners. So if you have ideas for cities, we got so much response. It was crazy. And so many
great responses. We're not going to be like, we're never going to pick a perfect place,
but we are looking for one. We're dating right now. We're dating. We're going to find one. Toronto would be nice. I love Montreal too. Montreal in the summer. Good bagels,
stuff like that. Good food. Hottest women in the world. Oh my God, I feel triggered. All right.
Anyway, we love hearing from our listeners. Even if we don't agree with you, we love hearing from
you. We love hearing from you. If we agree with you, obviously more. And please send us suggestions.
And if you've got a question for us, go to nymag.com slash pivot
or call 855-51-PIVOT.
The link is in our show notes.
Okay, Scott, that's the show.
We'll be back on Tuesday for more.
Please read us out.
Today's show was produced by
Lara Naiman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin.
Ernie Indertot engineered this episode.
Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Mia Silverio.
Make sure you subscribe to the show
wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and
Vox Media. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.
Cara, have a great rest of the week and a good weekend.