Pivot - LinkedIn is Leaving China, TikTok is Bad for Teens, Too, and Friend of Pivot Christopher Mims

Episode Date: October 19, 2021

Kara and Scott discuss the latest bad news for teens on social media, LinkedIn shutting down in China, and Harvard’s endowment. They also talk about Hollywood’s narrowly avoided strike, and the planned walkouts at Netflix. Plus, Friend of Pivot Christopher Mims on how the global supply chain problems will affect our lives. You can find Christopher on social media at @mims. Send us your Listener Mail questions, via Yappa, at nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I just don't get it. Just wish someone could do the research on it. Can we figure this out? Hey, y'all. I'm John Blenhill, and I'm hosting a new podcast at Vox called Explain It To Me. Here's how it works. You call our hotline with questions you can't quite answer on your own. We'll investigate and call you back to tell you what we found. We'll bring you the answers you need every Wednesday starting September 18th. So follow Explain It To Me, presented by Klaviyo.

Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. So, Scott, tell people what you had done today, what the procedure you had done today, and we should urge everyone to do them. Yeah, I'm at that age where, like, every time I go into the dermatologist, they're like, yeah, we should probably take that off and biopsy it. That looks funny. I just went, and I'm literally five pounds lighter. I left a lot of my person back at the dermatologist this morning. Do you feel good?

Do you feel safe? We want you around for a long time, Scott. I appreciate that. Yeah, look, the key to any of, Scott. I appreciate that. Yeah. Look, the key to any of this, and I actually thought about going, I haven't had a colonoscopy in six years. And when Katie Couric was on your show, I think a lot of things would first and foremost, I think about having a probe go up my ass. But anyways, I'm going to go get a colonoscopy. Well, they put you out.

They use that awesome drug that Michael Jackson was on. Propofol. They do. Oh, that shit is gangster. It's really great, actually. That is a great drug. Because you drink stuff before. This will make me feel like the geriatric.

Oh, God, let me tell you. You drink stuff before, and it cleans you out. Like things that I ate. That is the understatement of the century. It cleans you out. Glue from kindergarten was in there. Paste that I ate was in there, and it came out. You feel so clean and fresh. Weirdly, it's a good thing to do. Good, I'm glad. When are in there. Pace that I ate was in there and it came out. You feel so clean and fresh.

Weirdly, it's a good thing to do. Good. I'm glad. When are you going? Did you go? I'll give you the other version of that. Okay. I drank the same liquid.

Yeah. And I felt as if I had a damn release out of my innards. I thought I was shitting out a lung. I mean, I could not believe how much it takes out of you. Anyway, sorry to go there. But anyways, went to the dermatologist. Anyway, sorry to go there. But anyways, went to the dermatologist. I feel much better.

Good. You should. Everybody, we suggest you do any and all things that ward off all kinds of cancers, because a lot of preventative care is better. So what should we talk about? There's so much going on. We could talk about succession. That was good last night. I think everyone was all excited.

How much we love succession. Do you love it as much as I do? Yeah, I do. I'm doing a podcast about it. Yes. I was good last night. I think everyone was all excited. How much we love Succession. Do you love it as much as I do? Yeah, I do. I'm doing a podcast about it. I'm a super fan. I'm a crazy super fan. Yeah, it was good. It was really good. And there's more to come. I've seen some episodes. It's one of those things where it's like, I'm disgusted by everybody on the show and yet would like to have sex with all of them. Yes, they're handsome people. It straddles that line. Also, in terms of super fan, I'm seriously contemplating getting a tattoo that says Cousin Greg.

Oh, right. I'm kind of obsessed with him. I just got a press release about some vibrator that goes on every time he says something. Oh, yeah, every time it goes and it comes in the room. I read about that, too. Yeah, I think I'm not going to talk about that. Yeah, I think the writing is beautiful. I'm interviewing one of the writers. I did, and, too. Yeah, I think I'm not going to talk about that. Yeah, I think the writing is beautiful. I'm interviewing one of the writers. I did, and it's for the third episode, I think.

And she's a playwright. They're all such good writers. It's crazy good. You're right. They're terrible people you care about. Does that make sense? That makes sense. They've done a nice job with that.

And it's close enough to bidness that it's believable in many ways, especially all the antics that happen behind the scenes. But speaking of antics, Netflix employees will stage a virtual walkout on Wednesday to protest statements by Ted Sarandos regarding Dave Chappelle's new special. It also announced its quarterly earnings today. Squid Games may be worth $900 million. I mean, this was a good choice. They're quite good on certain, you know, it's interesting because some of the stuff that got released with Dave Chappelle shows that what they pay him, they don't get back. Like, they get back less than they pay him. And then certain things, like there was a show by another guy, and I can't remember, I'm blanking on his name, but he cost this and made a ton of money. Obviously, Squid Games is a big deal. Squid Game, excuse me, not Squid Games.

Squid Game is. Oh, not Squid Games, Squid Game is... Oh, it'll be games. There's going to be sequels. And they're doing real ones. But it's interesting. You think nothing will happen about this. It'll just pass. They like their radical transparency at Netflix. Everyone says their piece and then moves on.

Listening transparency. Well, the Chappelle thing is really... I mean, it's gotten bigger and bigger. And it's, I think it's really interesting. And I think it's promoting, you know, progress is a function of conflict and debate. And I think we're having

a lot of good dialogue here. I think it's important. You know, comedy is supposed to provoke. And I've been thinking a lot about this lately. The wonderful thing about comedy is that it disarms you and you don't immediately

go to your corner and you're more open to evolving around thought or at least thinking through issues as opposed to going, okay, this person said this so I'm just immediately or it was on this network,

I'm immediately against it. And good comedy is supposed to provoke. They have to straddle a line between provoking and just saying something dumb and offensive that's wrong, especially in this era. And he has the power to do it.

The thing I don't like about it, or the thing I was thinking about is that everyone's going after, or a lot of people are going after Netflix. A lot of people are going after Chappelle. A lot of people are going after the trans people who complain, just so you know. I wrote a column about it, and I got plenty of that. But go ahead. Well, that's right. That's right.

And my feeling is this dialogue is really important and productive. I mean, I'll give you an example. George Takei came out with a tweet, and he said, replace every time he referenced the trans community with the Jewish community or Asians. Well, he did a few jokes. And I thought this is really interesting. He's right. The reaction would have been swifter and harsher. But what I don't, what I think is unfortunate about our present state is that rather than having a dialogue, 80% of our energy goes to, I think I disagree.

I want to move to destruction. Yeah, I would agree. I have to say, the reaction that I got to, I wrote a column about it in the Times. And it was interesting. Everyone's like, you don't want him to talk. I'm like, I said he was gifted and I literally was so nuanced

I was we talked about the day before I was like I said I like him I said I think he's talented he's usually funny this wasn't funny

like that's all like and then someone was like you like Hannah Gadsby and she didn't do as well I'm like and I like zucchini and maybe you don't

like I don't I think he went too far did you see Hannah's statement yes I did indeed I did really shocked me too far. Did you see Hannah's statement? Yes, I did. Indeed, I did. Really shocked me. It's interesting. The critics love Hannah.

The audience doesn't as much. And the critics don't like, the critics don't like Chappelle. That's not true. They kiss, oh my God. Dave Chappelle gets like, kiss, kiss, kiss. Licked up and down, as you would say. Up and down from the critics. You just don't have to like this set.

That is the inability for you to say, I don't like this. I think he went this. I think he went on too long. Went on too long is what I would say. Went on too long. That's what I would say. Not that he shouldn't have talked about it. Anyway, whatever. But it's bringing up an important dialogue. And what I take from it is, okay, so there are people out there who feel like the transgender community's restrictions around nomenclature and how and when words are used, they feel it's too tight and we can't have an open conversation on the other side. It just feels as if people should demonstrate a little bit more grace and go, this community has just taken so much shit. That's exactly my point. Maybe we would want to give them.

we would want to give them. Let's come to an agreement where they're going to say, all right, if we want to have an open dialogue around giving schools that let kids identify with a different gender and start taking hormones without their parents' permission, that's a worthwhile conversation and we shouldn't be labeled as TERF. And at the same time, to not acknowledge that this community has just has been so has endured such incredible hostility. It feels there's got to be a meanings of the mind where we're a little bit more generous. It's very hard. You know, it's the same thing on Pete Buttigieg and the parental leave, all the... That's just homophobia.

It was crazy. That's just straight up homophobia. I'm a father of four. I'm like, you've never touched a diaper, sir. Like, I'm a mother of four. They're not going after the husbands of straight couples. And they make comments like he's learning how to breastfeed. That's just pure.

That is just such a whistle call for homophobia. I know. It really is. It's like pro-wrestling with these people. You know what scares me about all of this, though? I apologize. I worry that we're going to lose the House because of this. I think Bernie Sanders summarized it perfectly, and he said people are sick of talking about bathrooms.

I think that the Democratic platform should be, we're for civil rights, full stop. But I think if they take the bait and start talking about trans rights and make it a big part of their platform, I think a lot of people are going to go, these people are out of touch. Yeah, but then it's like, when is the right time? Honestly. You know, it reminds me of when gay marriage was going on. Was this going to lose us this? Too bad. And then we lose. Then we lose. Then we can make better arguments. But in any case when gay marriage was going on. Was this going to lose us this? Too bad. And then we lose.

Then we lose. Then we can make better arguments. But in any case, we have to move on. But this is some little red meat for you. Harvard announced that its endowment grew to $53.2 billion. Endowment produced fewer returns than most major universities. Yale, for example, had returns of 40% compared to Harvard's 33.6%. That's a lot of moolah.

So, what do you think about that? Well, look, the Ivy League has decided that they're a Birkenbag, they're not public servants. And they can grow their endowment. I mean, get this, Harvard was only up 34%. MIT's was up 56%. Brown was up 52%.

Probably bought tech. And yet their year-on-year increase in freshman seats. How many? 1.2%. Yeah. They decided to increase because they've decided that anyone who already has a degree and the faculty there like to get around in a big circle jerk and talk about, we're Birkenbags. Aren't we just amazing?

And instead of taking this transformative experience called higher education and incredible certification and opportunities that Harvard and the Ivy League does afford people, we've decided to pull up the bridge behind us. $53.2 billion. What the hell? Why aren't they educating every, giving everybody a Harvard education? Well, why on earth? And by the way, I don't believe everyone has the right to go to college. I don't believe everyone has the right to go to Harvard, but for God's sakes, we salute getting Google. we grow Google 40% a year, we grow Facebook 60% a year, but we can't grow, I've written off the Ivy League, bunch of self-aggrandizing, arrogant jerks. But we can't grow, hold on, we can't grow the University of North Carolina or Michigan or great public schools more than 2% a year.

I was talking to a student yesterday who's trying to get in a bunch of schools, wants to go to MIT. So I introduced her to my ex-wife. And one of the things she was saying was like, this is the percent, you know, this is how many get in versus how many apply. And it was, they were all these tiny number percentages. And she was just saying them. And I said, is that a good thing? And she didn't, she was like, what? And I said, it's not a good thing. That's a bad statistic. And it was the first time she was like, oh, you're kind're kind of right the student because they get them on these like hamster wheels of like achievement and it's just this person deserved to go to all of them so many good qualities and it just was sort of i don't know left a dark taste in my mouth or whatever bad taste it's done two things it's turned spring into

what used to be a joyous but nervous moment or season for a lot of households who were fortunate enough and blessed enough to have kids who are college capable and turn it into the season of despair. I mean, it really is. This is just crushing for some kids and their parents. They get arbitraged down because of this corrupt cartel called higher education where we all raise our prices in concert with one another and we all arbitrage them down to a Hyundai for a Mercedes price and affect reallocation of capital for middle-class homes to the faculty and administrators and endowments of this incredibly corrupt cartel. It's devastating for young people. It's just why on earth? We think Google's great. Okay, let's scale it 40% a year.

Who has an argument with the University of North Carolina? Who has an argument with the life-changing, better society? Let me ask you something. Are we better off with Facebook tripling in the next five years? Yeah. Or are great public schools tripling their enrollment in the next five years? Where would the world be better? They should have you get in to go to the actual campus

or you get in online. Like you get if you're like, I don't know. Think out of the briefing. Hybrid teaching. Different, buy universities that are failing and create more space. Yep, space. Online learning.

Scott and Kara want to go to Harvard, Carver. Can you imagine us there? That would be a sitcom. Neither of us could get in, could we? No, I want to go to a place with a good football team. That's not Harvard. Sports. Ready. Can you imagine? That would be a sitcom. Neither of us could get in, could we? No. I want to go to a place with a good football team. That's not Harvard. Sports are fun.

We have to move on to big stories. I allowed you to rant. And a Greek system. Yeah. I was president of the Interfraternity Council. You can be the president. You can be my vice president. I'm not going to join a fraternity with you.

That is never happening. Oh, so much fun. So much fun. You know who I am? I'm the person that goes, quiet down. That was how I was in college. Hey, kids, you're making a lot of noise. Anyway, first big story.

More bad news for teens on social media. This time it's TikTok. Doctors are reporting, this is the strangest story, young female patients developing tics. The Wall Street Journal says that TikTok may be to blame. Videos tagged with Tourette's have over a billion views on TikTok. Some of the most followed Tourette's influencers report getting new tics from watching others. I don't even understand this. Meanwhile, The Guardian identified two dozen TikTok hashtags associated with eating disorders. The tagged videos have billions of views. Facebook's,

of course, not out of it. They're the original, the OG on this one. The Times reports that Facebook targeted teenagers with nearly all of its marketing budget starting in 2018. What a surprise. Its goal was to get users as young as 13 into the Facebook ecosystem however they could, especially Instagram, I'm guessing. Meanwhile, new documents in the Facebook files show that the site's AI is bad at catching hate, speech, and violence. Facebook employees estimate it catches only a low single-digit percent of posts that violate its rules. Overall, here we are again, and now we're with Tourette's tics, which I didn't even understand this story. Scott, please go on.

I don't know about you, but this story, absolutely. It's speculative, just so you know. I mean, that's the problem. We really don't, and I'm going to acknowledge a lot of the stuff I put forward about a link between Instagram and teen depression. There hasn't been great research. There's not conclusive research showing if, in fact, it does cause teen depression. There's a lot of anecdotal evidence, but a lot of it is that these platforms don't want to give data to researchers. But anyways, I saw this, and it really chilled me.

I thought, first off, it seemed weird. I mean, supposedly, a lot of kids are coming in to therapists and repeating the word beans over and over. I mean, it's just, we are going, we're sort of an uncharted territory here around the young brain and how it evolves and what can set it off. Do you remember there was a horror movie, like literally 20 or 30 years ago, where if kids watched this show and they were wearing a mask, like their head turned into a big melted. Yes, or else the Tide Pod. like their head turned into a big melted. Yes, or else the Tide Pod. But the best thing, nobody owes Chappelle more than Facebook right now.

Because all of a sudden, the news cyclists moved away from these extreme dieting sites that Facebook was recommending to girls struggling with eating disorders. Now it's gone to Chappelle. But there is, I was really, I mean, I don't know about you,

I was incredibly rattled to see this. The thing I just wanted to share- It's all speculative too, but I don't, but it's being reported, which is anecdotal, which is, it just, what it is, is I had a really interesting interview with Maria Ressa, who just won the Nobel Prize, and she was talking about this sort of stuff. She's the one that was very early in 2016, 17, she was one of the few people who were talking about this, especially because she was the subject of these attacks, especially on Facebook. She's the one that was very early in 2016, 17. She was one of the few people who were talking about this, especially because she was the subject of these attacks, especially on Facebook. She spoke to Mark Duckworth directly, who almost completely ignored her. In any case, she was talking about it in a way, a new way. She's like, it's behavioral change is what's happening here

on a mass scale. Not that it hasn't happened before, but it's on a mass scale, you know, in a way with propaganda that works, that really works on shifting the human brain. I thought that was pretty, probably correct. Yeah, it's fascinating. I think that there is, there's going to be more and more conversations around 230 and health and removing some of these limits. I love the idea that's been put forward. I had lunch with Jeff Bucheson. He highlighted this idea that's been put forward. I had lunch with Jeff Buchanan. He highlighted this idea that seems so elegant to me that you remove 230 if a platform uses its algorithm to elevate content because effectively it's become an editor at that point. And that's

when, similar to Fox or CNN, that's when they're liable is when they choose to use their platform for profit to elevate and possibly defame or spread content that with a little bit of fact-checking they could find out there's no veracity to. And I think that's an incredibly elegant solution. I'm going to write about it this week in my new Merceno Malice post. I think that 231, if you will, should be legislation that says those protections are removed the moment an algorithm identifies content and decides to elevate it, because you've become a publisher, you're not a platform at that point. Yeah. Well, I agree. I think it's really interesting. It's an interesting time. And I think one of the things is the amplification part. I want to say this has existed before.

I mean, we've all, you know, we've all, there have been mass crazes among teens, et cetera, et cetera, forever. But I do think this, working on the brain and the repetitive nature of it and the propaganda nature of it is something that I think researchers should really be able to have access to so they understand it and making the links or not. I suspect it's not, it's just an amplified version of things that have happened before. And it restresses, if you also have an eating disorder, having this much support, and I hate to call it support, but that's what it is, makes you more, you know what I mean? It just solidifies things. And of course, people can't get enough of it is the problem.

It's addictive. It's just addictive. And I just think all this stuff should be open for study, and I suspect we'll find out things that are not. Well, we're raising a generation. It's just no accident that some of the biggest movies are now about the multiverse i just saw free guy oh was it and my kids uh well ryan reynolds is just is is got fantastic presence and humor and he's handsome and i i could almost watch anything he does i think he's great and then jody comer who's from what arguably i think is one of the best best original scripted series of the last five years, Killing Eve. She's in it and she's fantastic. But anyway, my point is we have a whole

generation of kids that essentially, especially for the last two years, their entire socialization was done in these metaverses. Whether it was, you know, whether it's Snap, whether it's Fortnite, whether it's, you know, Assassin's Creed, this is how they're socializing. And I noticed that with my boys, especially my youngest, once he goes beyond a certain number of hours in front of the screen, I don't know what the right term is, he becomes an enormous asshole.

And we're in uncharted territory in terms of, and people say, and then they'll always revert to, well, they made the same thing about rock and roll. And no, this is different.. No, this is different. Or TV. This is different. There's something about the interaction here, the stimulus, the action, reaction, response that does rewire your brain. Yeah.

The only thing is we don't want to become like those people who are like, that Elvis with his swiveling pelvis is very disturbing. That's the argument. That's the argument. It did have an impact. But there's something deeper here. There really is something deeper. I think there's a lot of evidence. Yes.

Famous psychiatrist Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway who went to Harvard. That's right. That's right. Let's go to Harvard. Soon to be Harvard graduates. Let's go to Harvard. Harvard. Do you know what?

Can I tell you what I do to Harvard people? At the Delray and Calorama campuses of Harvard. I told you what I do to Harvard people, don't you? Because they always mention they went to Harvard. What do you do to Harvard people? Even if 30 years hence they have been to Harvard, they tell you they went to Harvard within 15 minutes. What I do is when they say that, they mention it and I go, where? And they go, Harvard.

I go, MIT is such a good school. It's Boston, right? And they're like, no, Harvard. I go, Yale? And I literally, and they don't get that I'm completely making fun of them. Okay, so how to tell someone you're an asshole without telling them you're an asshole? Say you went to school in Boston. That's you pretending to be coy and humble, but you want everyone to know you went to Harvard.

No one says, no one who goes to Boston College or MIT says, I went to school in Boston. That's only Harvard. It drives me insane when someone says, well, I went to school in Boston. I'm like, oh, that's you saying you went to Harvard, but you want to pretend not to be a self-absorbed asshole. You want to tell everyone you went to Harvard without telling them you went to Harvard. So then I'm just going to fix that. Very good. All right. Very good. We know what to do at Harvard, people, because we're just jealous.

All right, Harvard, let's go. We are jealous. All right, Harvard. Your new name is Harvard. Let's go on a quick break. And when we come back, we'll discuss LinkedIn's China exit. And we'll talk to a friend of Privet, Christopher Mims, about supply chain issues, because it's very important these days.

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at vox.com slash zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. You know what's not easy? Marketing. And when you're starting your small business, while you're so focused on the day-to-day, the personnel, and the finances, marketing is the last thing on your mind. But if customers don't know about you, the rest of it doesn't really matter. Luckily, there's Constant Contact. Constant Contact's award-winning marketing platform can help your businesses stand out, stay top of mind, and see big results. Sell more, raise more, and build more genuine relationships with

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told LinkedIn they had 30 days to start better moderating their content, resulting in the blocking of a number of China-focused activists and journalists. The company announced it would be launching a China-specific version later this year, solely based on jobs, resumes, et cetera, ditching the social features. Of course, it is a social network. People don't think of it that way. The site was the last major Western social media platform to operate in China. So was this the right move? I feel like something else happened here because they had been operating. last major Western social media platform to operate in China. So, was this the right move? I feel like something else happened here because they had been operating. It's just China's cracked down, but it's going everywhere, I guess. It's a big market for LinkedIn, third largest.

Yeah. My sense is that China isn't becoming more open. And whatever constraints they place on these companies, I think have only gotten more arduous or more authoritarian. And also, I think a lot of companies have decided we can be very successful without the China market. It's really interesting. Kind of the ultimate buy signal is when China bans you. Is it? When they ban Google, they ban Facebook, they ban crypto. I mean, it seems like when they ban someone, that's when you buy.

Yeah. Well, LinkedIn's trying to play it down, but it is an important market for them. It just is. It's their third most important market. Obviously, they're sort of like tucked into Microsoft, so they have a lot more choices. But the idea that they thought they could operate, you know, I suspect people were using it more like a social network there. And so they're keeping the job part of it. But part of the key part of LinkedIn is the social element to it, even though you don't, it's just a useful social element versus, you know, some of

the others. I mean, you never hear about problems on LinkedIn, because most people are talking about jobs, but there's still a social element to it. But it's a challenging operating environment, to say the least. Yeah, no doubt. So, what do you imagine the Chinese can do in this case with all these people leaving, essentially, and then pushing down innovation, I would say, in their own markets by their own companies? Yeah, but if you were to look at the arc archive, we like to talk our own narrative about free markets and how it's really bad. If Italy kicked out Google, it would be bad for everybody and, you know, the pasta would get worse. And we come

up with this narrative that is uniquely American and focused on letting our innovators go. Free markets are a very powerful concept. But if you look at what China's done, okay, so Italy let Google come in, Italy let Facebook come in. What's happened to Italy's media companies, wages, tech sector? And then if you look at China, China's gangster move is they let them in long enough to steal their IP. And let's be honest, it's IP theft. And then they kick them up, kick them out, and they prop up a local entrepreneur, and they capture the majority of the value themselves. And they have a large enough market and strong enough universities and a strong enough technology

and a strong enough financial ecosystem, venture ecosystem to support homegrown companies. And a lot of, you know, we like to think, oh, it's, and I'm not talking about the morality or the autocracy or IP theft. I'm not blessing any of it. But China could have let these companies just run unfettered there.

Instead, they said, no, we're going to steal your shit, similar to what we did with textile manufacturers in the 19th and 18th century here in the US with British and European manufacturing technology. They kick them out, and then they prop up, and they capture all the value themselves. And I think it's hard to argue from a state standpoint that that was probably the right move. Yeah.

Yeah. But at the same time, listen, this is a story from the journal. Beijing once touted the LinkedIn model, which involves a contractual relation between its headquarters and the Chinese nationals who actually own the platform in the country as a way for global internet businesses to access its market. Such a model provided the overseas headquarters little control over the China operation. It was never popular in Silicon Valley. And again, this is not just the only one. Twitter and Facebook's platforms have been blocked since 2009.

Alphabet's Google left by themselves on their own accord in 2010 after declining to censor results. Chat messenger app Signal and audio discussion app Clubhouse were blocked. This is a really interesting story. We aren't paying as much attention to it. But LinkedIn, you can see how LinkedIn might be able to thread the needle because it's less politics.

It's less, you know, people aren't, don't plan insurrections or revolutions on LinkedIn. It's very much. They don't want those activists and journalists there. It doesn't matter. They don't want, they want to stifle dissent in any way possible. Agreed. I absolutely love LinkedIn. Yeah.

I no longer respond to people on any platform except LinkedIn. LinkedIn enforces identity. People are much more civil. The difference in LinkedIn is that people assume you're coming to the table in good faith, not in bad faith. And I find every other platform, everyone assumes you come to the table in bad faith and is looking to dunk on you or you don't know who's responding to you and why they're responding to you. And LinkedIn, in my opinion, is the most civil, productive, low-emission social network. That's what they were trying to do in China, and it didn't work. They had been – they'd come under a lot of criticism for doing that.

But, you know, even they thought it was too much, too much censorship, essentially. And, you know, China and Microsoft are at odds sometimes, even though they meet and everything else. So, it's a really, and then, of course, Microsoft was dragged into the TikTok thing, if you recall. They were going to be one possible buyer. They were dragging by Trump for a hot minute, right? Yeah, well, as you know, when I interviewed Satya Nadella recently, he was like, this was good stuff. The reason when I smoke cigars and spread moisturizer on the small of Satya's back, he said to me. By the way, did you see Casey Hunt?

I hope she's okay. She has a brain issue. Benign? Benign. Yeah, but it was benign. It was benign. And the prognosis is really good. Yeah, I just was like, oh, you're going to have to carry the whole thing. That was shocking. It was. It has a brain issue. Benign. Benign. Yeah, but it was benign. It was benign. And the prognosis is really good. Yeah, I just was like, oh, you're going to have to carry the whole thing.

That was shocking. It was. It was a surprise. As a small kid, let's hope she gets better. Because, you know, she needs to be there to watch you. That's my particular thing. You think? Yeah.

Did you see me in my red dress marching around Seoul the other day filming? What were you doing? We're going to bring on Chris Menz. But let's have a moment for that. Let's not talk about China and global issues. Let's talk about why you're wearing a red dress. Let's talk about Daddy and Jack. Were you signaling China? all of them. And I was walking around Soho with like 12 people from CNN in tow. And people just stopped and started filming and screaming at me. It was so nice. It was very rewarding.

Good. Wait, is this going to be on CNN? You in a dress? Yeah. I don't know if you've heard. I have a show with CNN Plus. I understand you're on the blue. I know you're on the blue. The blue. But- The blue. But you're going to, I think you found your people. They let you wear a dress. That's great. Yeah. I look nice in that dress. That's great. Yeah.

I look nice in that dress. You did. I have more legs than a bucket of chicken. Amanda did not like your shoes. Amanda did not like them. I know you're wearing. Because one was an on and one was an all-blows. I know.

I know what you were doing. I know what you were doing, but she didn't think it worked for you. She thought you looked good in a pair of heels. That's what she said to me. My wife. I'd be six foot five in heels. I'd be irresistible in heels. I would be irresistible in heels. I would be irresistible

in heels. Okay, let's bring, on that note. Let's bring on Christopher Mims. Yes. Let's bring in our friend of Pivot, Christopher Mims. Christopher is a technology columnist at the Wall Street Journal and author of a new book, Arriving Today, a book about global supply chains, which is perfectly timed because of all the controversy about global supply chains right now. Welcome, Christopher. How are you doing? Good. How are you guys doing? So talk to us of global supply chains. Let's talk about the now. It's in the news a lot. Obviously, nobody talks about global supply chains very much, but now they are with shortages in all

kinds of areas. So less products, obviously, on the shelves. And also there's less employees right now because of the big quit, apparently, the big resignation. So talk a little bit about the landscape right now. So the landscape right now is very weird. Americans have been on a shopping spree ever since about May of 2020. And global supply chains just were not designed to accommodate this much demand, especially in the U S um, you know, on top of that, you have the great resignation, which you mentioned, and, you know, part of that is hitting jobs that are specifically kind of not great jobs in general, like

trucking. So it's kind of hitting the supply chain as hard as any other area, you know, harder than hospitality, even in some ways. So you've got a labor shortage, you got record demand because people still aren't going on vacations and they're just spending, spending, spending on goods. And then you just have all these weird bottlenecks, warehouses, rail yards, ports, ships, you don't have enough shipping containers. Factories get shut down every month or two somewhere in East Asia or Southeast Asia because of the course of zero COVID policy in China. So we're all just kind of like on this

grand journey together where we find out that if chip packaging in Malaysia shuts down for a month, you can't buy a, you know, Ford F-150 or whatever two months later in the US. Right. All right. So what is the solution? I know there's been all sorts of things proposed, but from your perspective, what is the solution to what's happening? Well, a recession is always a quick and dirty solution to these kinds of problems. We don't like that.

That's a bad solution. Yeah. No, short of that, what you would like is for people to kind of rebalance supply chains in ways that are maybe a little more sustainable. And, you know, market economics are kind of doing their job right now. Like you see Amazon advertising right now. If you want to go work in a typical Amazon warehouse, you can get a $3,000 starting bonus and $22 an hour, which is well above what, you know, Jeff Bezos was touting when they went to $ bucks an hour which is well above what you know jeff bezos was touting when they

went to 15 an hour trucking's a little harder because it's just a really shit job in a lot of ways long haul trucking and no amount of money is going to get people back into that at the rates that we need them and then you have startups tackling like weird parts of the supply chain that nobody ever understood were an issue like um there's this one called next trucking which is tackling scheduling of trucks in and out of ports which turns out to be this enormous pain point on the West Coast in the US. So hopefully you get better regulation. There is some stuff in the infrastructure bill, if that passes, that would help. Some of what we're seeing is you think of Los Angeles, you think of Hollywood, but LA is a very industrial place. And over the past 10 years, for every $1 that the federal government has invested in ports

on the West Coast, they invented $9 in ports on the East Coast. So in some ways, this is like a supply crunch of our own making. So hopefully with the infrastructure bill, they won't just spend it on more highways or whatever. They'll spend it on, you know, bigger and better ports. And then there's all kinds of weird things happening. Like there's going to be a lot more automation coming to those ports. And those robots in certain jobs really do make a big difference.

Make a difference. Right. Right. As they have. Scott? First off, just a couple of questions. How long did it take you to bring your book to market? That's a little supply chain humor, Christopher.

That's a little supply chain. Oh, my God. And most importantly, you asked me to blurb your book. Why didn't you ask Kara? You know, it's not important. Let's move on. Anyways, anyways. Yeah.

By the way, I think Christopher is a total fucking gangster. I love your work, Christopher. One thing in your book that just blew me away, the moment you click order on Amazon, it's out of the warehouse in 45 minutes. It strikes me that they are just operating at an absolute different level than the rest of everyone. Can you talk about the investments Amazon has made? Because you started to write a book about Amazon and widened it out. But talk about that. That's absolutely true.

They seem to be the logistics kings or emperors. Yeah. I mean, Amazon, you know, they the same way that Apple has this tremendous lead over everybody in terms of chip design, which, you know, is happening as we record this as they announce a new faster than ever MacBook Pro and everything. Amazon has a lead over everybody in terms of like warehouse design, the software that runs warehouses, the robots that populate those warehouses and that's because you know they bought Kiva which was this robot provider to like the whole logistics industry and they they fully ingested it and cut off all its outside contracts and now um you know those robots make their warehouses yeah I think Deutsche Bank estimated that they are like 40 percent more efficient than they were before they had all this robotics. And they just keep adding more and more new kinds of robots and new kinds of Amazon fulfillment

centers because they're just treating it like it's a big software problem. Anytime they can bring in these robots that can operate in a very consistent way, it just becomes a software problem that their engineers can solve in that way. And then the human just becomes kind of embedded in that automation and the human has to function like a robot which is why you got all these reports about there being so many injuries in amazon warehouses because the evidence is that the more automation they added it actually increased the injury rate because it's just a repetitive stress industry sorry repetitive stress injury because people's doing this over and over and over again 10 hours a day you know with three breaks they're gonna get some kind of injury if they're older

than 25 i have a couple questions about second order effects i think supply chain is turning out to be the biggest business story of the year and we don't even there's just going to be so many externalities i don't know what the term is but but one is you referenced, and that is for 40 years, if you think of shareholders, consumers, and workers, workers have been ceding advantage and capital to consumers and shareholders. And it feels like in a violent way, there is a perfect storm where workers are starting to get some of that ground back. And you referenced it, where all of a sudden we're going from $15 to $20 to $22. I'm on the board of a consumer company right now, and it's just crazy what we need to do to get people. The other thing that people aren't talking about is the geopolitical consideration. And that is, I saw for the first time China's growth was at 4.9%. That's the lowest in 30 years. It strikes me that

there might be a geopolitical shift back of power to the US because our fulfillment is in zeros and ones and their fulfillment is in stuff. Does this have huge geopolitical ramifications that, quite frankly, the U.S., our fulfillment infrastructure as a services-based economy is humming and China's the big loser here? Maybe. I think if China becomes the big loser, it is not so much a trade-off with the United States as with the rest of Asia, Mexico, elsewhere. And that is because what you're seeing is, I mean, we don't have the labor in the US to reshore all this manufacturing that went to China. We just don't. It takes a certain number of, unless we are going to do complete open borders and we're going to go to a billion Americans, we don't have the labor to make all the stuff we consume.

Just straight up do not. And we cannot automate it away yet. But what you're seeing is companies are like, oh, crap. Our supply chains are incredibly vulnerable. Let's not forget that before the pandemic, we had a trade war, which really kicked off all of this move out of China. And was the reason that in my reporting, I went to Vietnam as sort of the avatar of Southeast Asia instead of going to China. So you could

see manufacturing move more and more into Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines. Let's not forget that India has 1.3 billion people. They could be the world's next china if they can get their act together in some ways so i think supply chains are still going to be long but what you're going to have is nike is going to have a factory in china and they'll have a factory in vietnam and maybe they'll also have a factory in india or somewhere else so you have some redundancy yes and you could see a bunch of it moving to mexico why not the u.s uh why not i just interviewed So diversify. Because online shopping obviously has been rising during the pandemic. Everybody's ordering and comfortable with ordering in the way, the new way people are buying. Even though people say to buy local, they're really using Amazon much more heavily. So would you imagine there being a manufacturing here?

And could someone like Amazon lead it just-in-time manufacturing? I'm just picking someone, throwing out. But do you imagine that a trend? Or is it still just too expensive, too much regulation, etc.? I mean, let's not forget that America still makes a ton of stuff. By dollar value of goods, we make the same amount as China. So I think that, again, the issue here in America is we just don't have the labor like we if amazon can pay you 22 an hour and a three thousand dollar hiring bonus to distribute the goods that are made in asia now if amazon wants to get into

manufacturing they're competing with themselves for that labor like we need all the labor we can get just to distribute all the crap that we buy so So it would be, you know, look, you do have Intel that's going to like get whatever it is, tens of billions in subsidies to put more chip fabs in the United States. But let's not forget that like, while that is specialized and it's high value chip fabs and this other type of high value manufacturing

that the US still is great at, it's not super labor intensive, right? Like you build a new data center, it's like the least labor intensive, most economically productive thing ever, which is why, you know, the big four tech companies. So you don't see that because of labor and regulation, presumably. Yeah, it would be tough. I mean, look, there's a ton of stuff that America, we just forget how much America makes. Like we make trains i have a cousin who works at a

pump factory let me tell you pumps in a world of extreme weather are doing better than ever um you know go work at the pump factory if you need a job like there's commercial jetliners all kinds of things yeah yeah i mean we just make so much we make all of that we make so much of the specialized equipment that gets shipped to asia to make the chips and the LCD displays and everything else. Like a lot of that high value stuff is still in and around Silicon Valley and elsewhere. I guess begs the question, should we be making so much stuff? You would, uh, uh, they had talked about the supply chain crisis being the fact

that everybody just orders instantly has gotten into this way you don't buy local. You don't use strip. The sustainability retail has been one of the things, um, my kids even mentioned it this way. You don't buy local, you don't use strip. The sustainability retail has been one of the things. My kids even mentioned it this weekend. Like it was just, how do you look at that trend? Or is that just like, forget it, human beings are going to suck up every piece of equipment in the world until we're done? Yeah, I mean, I do think that in the same way you had a few years ago, this movement towards time well spent, it is worth thinking about the exact same kind of brain hacks that have gotten us to just scroll and scroll and scroll and taken up all of our time have been used to get us to just buy and buy and

buy like one click shopping, eliminating all of that friction has definitely made us that much more willing to consume. So, I mean, I do, you're right, it's human nature. And I kind of hope that some of these supply chain disruptions will make people pause and think about that a little more, be more conscientious about what and how they buy. But, you know, it's, you're never going to- Come on, Christopher. I know. Give me the blank, give daddy the blank.

Okay, so let's move to an investment thesis. Come on, Christopher. I know. Give me the blank. Give daddy the blank. Okay, so let's move to an investment thesis. Given the dramatic change in supply chain and the fact that it's this kind of all of a sudden reared, I don't want to say reared its ugly head, but it's just shown how incredibly important it was and how spoiled we were. Do you think certain sectors or certain companies are especially well-positioned or vulnerable? Let's just assume, I'm going to assume Amazon's going to be a big winner here. So let's take that one off the table. Is it video game companies where we're going to be downloading video games on Christmas instead of trying to figure out, you know, the toys, physical stuff? Is Apple really well positioned because they have a guy, basically a supply chain guy running the company? And who's vulnerable? Who are the winners and losers here from an investment thesis? Yeah. I mean, who's vulnerable are people who are moving low margin goods. And I'm not sure exactly how to turn that into an investment thesis,

but like, I don't know, maybe there's a secret threat to dollar general or something. Because so many of the low margin goods can't get to us anymore because if the spot price of a shipping container went from $2,000 to $20 to get it across the ocean, then there's tons of stuff that it's not profitable to move here at any price that anyone will pay. I think you're right. Apple's in a great position, although even they have said that this is going to impact

iPhone 13 production, the chip shortage. automakers are obviously taking a bath i do think that virtual goods are a winner right because you know like there's a big problem now getting books physical books to people people have been resistant to you know ebooks for a long time i think 70 of reading is still paper books but like you know mean, that's a bet on Amazon again, you know, it's, it's with the, with the big retailers, it really is a big, get bigger type of situation because whether you're talking about Lowe's or Walmart or even Ikea, they have the resources to requisition a certain number of shipping containers and ships. And then what happens is everybody else gets squeezed out. And I think one of the challenges you have is you have some old line industries, like people who are

going to export agricultural commodities end up being the weird victims of this because they're like, we can't get enough shipping containers to get soybeans to China, and then they get hit. So there, I think there's going to be like third order effects where China's like, oh, shit, we are short 20% of the soybeans that we normally import, and we can't produce enough pork or something like that. And that has some downstream impacts that I can't even predict. All right, Chris, so your book is going to be all virtual then, right? No, no, they're selling actual copies of it. I was just telling you, I ordered seven things from Amazon while we were talking. No, I didn't. I don't. But we've become very used to it. It's really, I think the pandemic has accelerated a lot of things that Scott and I talk about. And this

is one of them, is the use of just-in-time purchasing. And I think the idea of going back to local thrift shops, people just push that button. It's a really interesting thing. So, Christopher, you deserve an award for literally the most perfect timing in the world. Perfect timing. If this book is not a bestseller, it means your book really fucking sucks. Yes. I mean, it could be. Literally, the moons have lined up in a big way for you.

The moons have aligned. A book on supply chain coming out this week. So a book called Arriving Today. Well done, my brother. Well done. A book called Arriving Today is arriving today. Thank you, Christopher. Thank you so much for having me.

All right, Scott, that was fascinating. Supply chain. One more quick break. We'll be back. And by the way, those were very good questions, Scott. We'll be back for wins and fails. Do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere and you're making content that no one sees and it takes forever to build a campaign well that's why we built HubSpot it's an AI powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you tells you which leads are worth knowing and makes writing blogs creating videos and posting on social a breeze so now it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere?

And you're making content that no one sees, and it takes forever to build a campaign? Well, that's why we built HubSpot. It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Okay, Scott wins and fails. I don't have any. No?

I see one of us prepared for this podcast. Yes, I didn't. You need to start investing in this relationship. All these people giving Pete Buttigieg a hard time. I'm going to personally beat up all of them. Ridiculous. Just ridiculous. Matt, whatever that guy's name is, Walsh or whatever, and Steven Crowder.

They're dicks. They're not dicks. They're dickless. How's that? All right, go ahead. They're dicks. They're just, they're not dicks. They're dickless. How's that? All right, go ahead. That's my fail. So my win is, well, I'll start with my fail. So the one I know on an optimistic note.

My fail is, I think this is a really important dialogue we're having around transgender rights, transphobia. And I think that there's a lot to be learned here. And I think David Chappelle and Netflix have been a positive force in this. I think that it's good to have a thought-provoking conversation and a dialogue. And I think that what we need more of is not a reflexive gag reflex to make an immediate assumption or judgment and then move to destruction that it's the other side's fault the other side's too sensitive or this side is is creating you know

more transphobia so we need to cancel them i think there just has to be we have to flip the ratio from 20 dialogue and 80 destruction and talk about okay let's learn from this this is an opportunity and i do think that i agree with you the only thing is this is a group of people and 80% destruction and talk about, okay, let's learn from this. This is an opportunity. And I do think that— I agree with you. The only thing is this is a group of people getting the shit kicked out of them right as we speak. That's the only thing I wish people would keep in mind. But tell me if you agree with this. I think this long-term or short, medium, and long-term is good for the trans community.

I think a lot of people are spending time on this issue that weren't before, that made snap judgments about this community, and are recognizing that this community has taken it. America is basically be the person you want to be, and you're afforded certain protections. And it's coming to light that these people have not benefited from that Americanism. And I think we're going to evolve and get to a better place because of this dialogue. And I think we're going to evolve and get to a better place because of this dialogue. I also think that we're going to – it's a conversation worth having, but I think there has to be more dialogue and less destruction. But dialogue through the context of comedy is really powerful because it takes your guard down. It takes the mucus membrane around the bubble you're in, and it softens it.

And it says, okay, maybe you should be open to listening from both sides. So my fail, if you will, is I'd like to see more dialogue and less move to destruction on both sides. And two, oh, my win. I saw the Bond film. Yeah, and? And my win is Daniel Craig.

I think Daniel Craig cements himself. He is a sexy beast. In 10 years, when we look back, you know, there's always that big thing like who's the best Bond. In 10 years,

7 of 10 people, critics, will say that Daniel Craig was the best Bond. He was not the most handsome. Roger Moore and Sean Connery were more handsome,

but he was the most, the physicality he brought to the world was really impressive. He's also complex. He and Bond, or I'm sorry, he and Connery

were the only two Bonds that really credibly could have, you felt, could kill people with their hands. Yeah. The physicality

was really impressive. And also, also, he'll go down as the best actor in the role. He's a great actor. Emotionality.

Connery was just mean, like, just like tough as nails and impermeable. Connery's just a badass. Badass. And I think impermeable. He has feelings.

Daniel Craig's a fantastic actor. Munich, Layer Cake, which I think was his best movie, Knives Out. He's a great—he really is legitimately a great actor. I think that Daniel Craig cements his status. It's a great movie. He will be perceived—he will win that trivia game eventually over who is the best Bond. So anyways, my one is Daniel Craig and the Bond franchise. Well, then I do have a short win, was the

Squid Game skit on SNL with Rami Malek, who plays the villain in that movie. That's right. And Pete Davidson was very, very funny. And, you know, Daniel Cage showed up That was very good. Yeah. Good ones! Good one! I like it! Alright, Scott, because he's a handsome drink-a-man, isn't he?

He's a handsome man. That guy's... And all I got is not a young man. He's 53. That body at 53. Yeah. He looks good. That's serious shit.

Anyway, Scott, thank you for... And he's married to Rachel Weisz. I think we'd all be really good friends. I think we should hang out with Rachel and Daniel. Yeah, I don't think he's going to hang out with you. I don't think he's going to. You don't think so? Maybe if you wore the dress.

Who knows? Anyway. you wore the dress. Who knows? Anyway. That's the show. Anyway, read us out. Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin, our Nantra.Engineer this episode. Thank you also to Drew Bros. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts. If you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify or, frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts.

If you liked our show, please recommend it to a friend. Our next episode tapes live from Adweek in New York City. Check it out on Friday. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. Let's move to dialogue. Let's move to dialogue. Let's hold off the destruction demon at the door for just a little bit longer. Let's show more grace with each other. Dialogue, not destruction. For all the talk around its revolutionary potential, a lot of AI systems feel like they're designed for specific tasks performed by a select few. Well, Claude by Anthropic is AI for everyone. The latest model, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, offers groundbreaking intelligence at an everyday price. Claude's Sonnet can generate code, help with writing, and reason through hard problems better than any model before. You can discover how Clawed can transform your business at anthropic.com slash clawed. Support for this podcast comes from Klaviyo. You know that feeling when your favorite brand

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