Pivot - Mamdani's Win, Palantir's Stock Slide, and Tesla's Pay Package

Episode Date: November 7, 2025

Kara and Scott discuss Democrats' Election Night victories, and what they mean for the 2026 midterms. Then, Palantir's stock takes a dive amid overvaluation and shorting concerns, and Tesla shareholders vote on Elon Musk's trillion-dollar pay package. Plus, Trump's tariffs face the Supreme Court, and the far right erupts in civil war over Tucker Carlson's interview with white nationalist Nick Fuentes. We're going on tour! Get tickets at pivottour.com Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠Pivot YouTube channel⁠⁠.Follow us on Instagram and Threads at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcastofficial⁠⁠.Follow us on Bluesky at ⁠⁠@pivotpod.bsky.social⁠⁠Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcast⁠⁠.Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Is the Justice Department still just? Ultimately, Donald Trump is the person who began the weakening of the Justice Department in his first presidency. I'm Preet Bharara. In this week, investigative reporters Carol Lenig and Aaron Davis join me to discuss their new book, Injustice, how politics and fear vanquished America's Justice Department. The episode is out now. Search and follow. Stay tuned with Preet, wherever you get your podcasts. Support for this show comes from Upwork. If you're overextended and understaffed, Upwork Business Plus helps you bring in top quality

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What's next? Like a concert tour with Taylor Swift? Oh my God. I got all these podcasts and then I'm headed out with this crazy lady for this seven city tour. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Fox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. I'm Scott Galloway. How is the Scott Media Tour going? I'm seeing you everywhere, Scott Galloway. Yeah. You seem tired. Not a media horror, just a horror. I am tired. I went to, I did the Daily Show yesterday, and then I did Ben Stiller interviewed me at the 92nd Street Y.

Oh, my God. Last night? Last night, yeah. Oh, my God. How was that? Look, it was great. It was very rewarding. It's the ultimate sell signal when Ben Stiller is interviewing Scott Galloway. That means sell everything. Yeah. But, yeah, it was sold out.

Of course it is. And Ben did a great job. It was quite personal, and I would flip it back on him. He would ask these very kind of personal, moving questions, and I'd say, and what about you? And he would just freeze. Oh, because, you know, he just did that amazing documentary on his parents. Yeah. Yeah.

And it's a lot about his dad, actually. I mean, it's about his mother, too, but it's about his relationship. It's about him becoming a man. It really is. It's a really, I thought it was spectacular. Everyone should go watch it. But he put a lot of work into it. He prepped a whole thing, and I was very moved.

He's obviously a pretty busy guy, and he put a lot of work into it, so I like him. Well, just so everybody knows, you have the number one book on Amazon right now. That's right. That's right. There we go. There we go. There he is. How did that happen?

Yeah, yeah. Well, what's next? Like a concert tour with Taylor Swift? Oh, my God, I got all these podcasts, and then I've got this, I'm headed out with this crazy lady for this seven-city tour. Oh, yeah. So we got, we got that. Yeah, we're going to sell some fucking books. We are.

We're going to sell some books, and then I finish with Mar a week from tomorrow. Yes, can I come with you to that? Of course you can. If you're interested. Yeah, I'm coming with you. Tell Bill, I'm headed that way. So, yeah, we got, and we're, what are we doing? We're presenting to 13,000 people.

over the next seven or the days. It's going to be great. Are you excited? Are you getting excited? The answer is yes. Am I excited? Not especially. I'm tired.

You must be. You're going to have to rest, okay? I used to do this when I was younger, and I realized I don't miss it. I used to burn it from both ends for like 20, 30 years. Yeah, I was supposed to do something in New York tonight, and I canceled it. I had, I want to be well for the tour. I was in Seattle for 24 hours.

What? In between the last time we spoke? You've been to Seattle, man? Yeah. Oh, you've got to stop that, Kara. I know, but it was for one of our sponsors, so I'm trying to, you know, do the work while you're busy. Oh, so two words, ka and ching. Yeah, whatever.

And it was good, actually. It was interesting. So I have, unless I fuck up again and I've fucked up a few times and lose everything again, I'm not done, but I'm pretty, well, I'm done economically. But I still can't resist. I just got invited to speak at Jackson Hole for like my full speaking gig, and I'm like, well, maybe I should go. So I look at it in the middle of fucking January, when my kids are home and I should be hanging out. I'm going from London to Jackson Hall. Oh, that's a long.

I cannot get off the money train. I just can't. Well, you know, sometimes it's a lot of money and you're like, I know. But if you're at a point where you don't really need it, it doesn't matter, right? Or it shouldn't. I know theoretically I shouldn't go. Yeah. I know.

My kids are gone. I mean, my son is 18. He's going to be gone next year. We're lucky people, Scott. My youngest is at a great age. And there's no quick turnaround to Jackson Hole from London. Yeah. And I'm like, well, if the money's not going to make any difference in my life, why am I doing this?

And yet I keep saying yes. Well, it does a little bit. When you're poor, you'll be like, I'm glad I did that Jackson Hole thing. I actually, now I've been asking Amanda, I'm like, okay, she's like, oh, do you have to go? And then I tell her the figure, and she's like, you need to go. Like, when she says no, that's sort of how I'm judging it. But, you know, speaking of our tour, which is going to be do very well financially, but there's going to be a lot of Swisher energy just so, you know, just be ready for that.

You mean Swennergy? Swennergy. Lucky going to come up to me and ask me if I'm gay. Lucky's coming to D.C. But wait, aren't you gay? Yeah, I'm going to make her say that from the audience. Looking up, yeah. Yeah, she'll be.

In an Emilio poochie dress. Yeah, something like that. Yeah. And then Louis Swisher might be in Boston. He's thinking of coming down. Oh, nice. I know. I'm very excited. He called me. He goes, hey, mom, can I come? I already, I've got his life plan. Is he going to go to law school or he's going to be a high school math teacher? Yeah, he's moving to San Francisco. I'm very excited. I can totally see that. With this girlfriend, yeah. He's going to live in my house. It's his house, really, actually, isn't a trust. They're going to name their first kid like hope or, or wonder or something like that. They're total hippies.

You talk about boys having good, both of my sons have great relationships and unhappy. because they were raised in dual parent homes and they're wealthy. Romance and marriage have become luxury items. Literally the percentage of young men in relationships with women is unfortunately it is sadly tied to their income levels. Well, they're also very nice. No, no, no, I'm not saying I'm not, I don't even think it's because women are that attracted. As women get older, they figure out that a man's ability to signal resources is increasingly important. Yes. But at that age, it's more about confidence and skills. And there's just some fucking really depressing stats.

You know, in terms of the SAT. Oh, you've been on this tour. Let's go. Give me one, and then we've got to get to things. Go ahead. Okay. We're going to do this on the tour. We're going to talk about this a lot.

People talk about income inequality, and they assume that income inequality is greatest between the middle class and the poor. It's not the income inequality. The greatest gap is between the middle class and the rich. The rich have just literally launched into space in terms of income. They have. And what you have in wealthy households is that a cent, so the average high school, public high school in America can spend about $15,000 per student on educated them. Poor schools and poor neighborhoods because it's based on property taxes, which is probably one of the worst laws or constructs in America.

It's about poor neighborhoods get about $8,000 to $10,000 per student. Inadequate. The top private schools in America spend about $75,000 per student, right? They charge about 50 or 60, and they have big endowments, which they subsidize. So that's everything for, you know, better compensation for teachers, teachers training, more teachers, resources, after school sports. I mean, just all kinds of things. And the result is the following. The delta in the average SAT score from middle class to poor kids is 120 points.

That is huge, right? Get this, though. The delta between that middle class score, which is 120 points higher than poor households, The delta between middle class scores and kids from upper income homes is 250 points. Amazing. So if you're a kid coming from a low-income home, just out of the gates on average, you're going to be 370 points down on the SAT. Yeah. Don't even go into health statistics, but go ahead. Yeah. So, and this is my big rant, I'm a huge believer in affirmative action.

It should be based on income of the household the kid was raised. in full stop. Wow, Zoran Mandami, the new mayor. You've got to stop that. You've got to stop that. I know, but you have a lot of similar talking points. I'm not suggesting government-sponsored food lines where the DMV picks out my produce.

No, no. Again, the rich get everything, and this is the smallest of things, the smallest of things to make them healthier. Give them, okay. So they are better employees for the rich people, I guess. I don't know. All right, let me back up.

No, we're not, we've got to get to you. Sorry, sorry. I can't throw this bullshit out there and they'll just let it sit there. It's not bullshit. It's just like the rich get everything. It's framing. It's gaslighting me. Let's be clear. Budgets, and you and I are going to agree on this, reflect values.

And this is America's values right now. 21% of Americans are under the age of 18, but 40% of SNAP food recipients are under the age of 18, which says America's values are the following. We don't care about our fucking children. We do not. If we have public policy that is decided that double the amount of children are food insecure than the rest of the population, that is a conscious decision on voters from both sides of the aisle that it's okay for the most vulnerable to be hungry. And so you and I have common ground on that.

Where we disagree is how to fix it. Sure. And when you insert government in the middle, cents on the dollar end up in the pockets of the people the program is supposedly for. So if you believe that people in the New York State Metro, that a lot of people need help finding food, then give them money and let them spend it at Kroger's or Trader Joe's or wherever they want,

not government-sponsored food stores where you'll end up with 10 or 20 cents on the dollar in the pockets of people who need it. This is a great debate to have. He's the only one who brought it up, right? So I'm saying it's fine if we don't want a solution. It's the how to get there is the thing. Right.

The fact is he's one of the few people bringing up, and all of a sudden, Republicans are talking affordability now. But let's, we've got a lot to get today, including the Supreme Court questioning. Trump got elected on affordability. I know, I'm stopping you because we have to. We're going to talk about that in one. Yes, but he didn't do it. Well, I agree, but that was his message. Yes, it was, but now he's back to him.

He and Mondami are the same person. Stop talking. We're going to get to it in one second. By the way, I would have voted for him the moment my in-laws threatened to leave New York if he was elected. He got my vote. Did they leave? No. All right, just a minute.

Let's get to him. We've got a lot to get. Isn't Alec Baldwin leaving? Aren't him in Hilaria leaving now? What, who is? Alec and Hilaria. He doesn't he threaten to leave the U.S. every time there's an election?

Great. Goodbye. See you. Anyway, we've got a lot to get to today, including the Supreme Court questioning Trump's tariffs, which was really interesting arguments, and why Pallentier stock took a massive dive. But first, let us talk about this.

Democrats are riding high after sweeping key elections across the country this week. Abigail Spanberger and Mikey Sherrill won the governor's races in Virginia. and New Jersey, respectively. California voters passed Proposition 50, giving Democrats a win in the redistricting wars with potential pick up the five seats in next year's midterms. And, of course, Zorn Mondanmi won the New York mayoral race, handily defeating Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Slua. In his victory speech, Mamdani spoke about pushing back against Trump and his policies.

Let's listen. Together, we will usher in a generation of change. And if we embrace this brave new course, rather than fleeing from it, we can respond to oligarchy and authoritarianism with the strength it fears, not the appeasement it craves. After all, if anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him. Meanwhile, Republicans are downplaying these. Can I just respond? Not yet. In a second. Let me just go through everything.

Yeah, your job is to pick up the trash. Okay. I know you're mad about Mundan, but you're going to have to get over voters voted a minute. He's going to fight autocracy and the oligarchy as mayor of New York. Scott, you need to calm the fuck down. Let me finish. Meanwhile, Republicans are downplying these losses as best they can from blaming the shutdown and others writing wins off as Blue State Blips. Let's listen to House Speaker Mike Johnson. There's no surprises. What happened last night, was blue states and blue cities voted blue. We all saw that coming. And no one should read too much

into last night's election results. Off-year elections are not indicative of what's to come. That's what history teaches us. Oh, he's wrong. That is not true, actually. Except it wasn't just blue states. Democrats also gained ground with victories in Georgia, Mississippi, and lots of places, Buck's County, Pennsylvania, all over Virginia, Montana, like Colorado. It was all over the place. And in fact, they lost their supermajority in Mississippi. There were some unusual voting patterns, especially among Latinos. And now they're worried about that redistricting things they've been pushing out of greed because it looks like Democrats can flip these red seats, which is interesting.

Now, before you go ahead, a lot of male voters played a big role in the last election, moving to the right to vote for Trump. The things swung back this time. Exapoles show Mamdani won six. 68% of men between the ages of 18 and 29. Spanberger won 57% of that group. And Cheryl won 56%. All right, I've given you lots to go at.

Let's take a swing at it, Scott. Grumble about Mondani and then let's go. It felt, I don't know about you. I felt alien to wake up yesterday morning as a Democrat and having won this decisively. Yeah. Like, I don't remember feeling this. I didn't recognize the feeling.

The Obama feeling when he won, do you remember? I just didn't recognize it. And it wasn't that these candidates won. It was the margin that they won by. Up and down the ballot, it just went blue all over the place. And there's some credibility to the Republicans' comments. And also, Trump was probably right. When Trump's not on the ticket, these ideas and policies just don't work.

They don't resonate. But it was also because of Trump. It was a very Trump-fueled election for- Well, his policies. Yeah. People, you know, people vote for Trump not as policies. was what it looks like. Some of the observations, the things, unfortunately,

I find it really discouraging the delta between different age groups and the genders. It just feels like we're separating. I mean, you realize for Mamdani, women, young women, he won by 72 points. Women 18 to 29 went 84 to 12, Mamdami and Cuomo. And then people over the age of 65,

women over the age of 65 went 21 points for Cuomo. I mean, it's as if they're living in different nations. It's just so strange to me that we have two Americas, unfortunately, built by age. And the reality is this all, in my opinion, it all comes back to the same place. And that is old people, such as myself and you to a certain extent, we have figured out a way to vote ourselves more money and create a series of policies that young people just say, I'm not down with anything you believe and you have done.

You have not left me the America that you enjoyed. Except that, look, Mamdani won 68% of men between 18 and 29. That is astonishing. Oh, I'm not saying it's by gender. It's by age. I think Cuomo won by like 20 points among men over the age of 65. The thing here was the drive, the fulcrum of these results. And by the way, it was a landslide he won.

And I've said this before. I'm not a New York resident, but if I was here, I think he'd give the guy the benefit of the doubt. And you rally behind him. Which Bill Ackman did. Did you see that? I just think he's a fucking attention whore. Agreed, but I'll take it. Okay, that's, I shouldn't be so cynical. That's the right tone.

No, you're right. That's the right tone. Yeah, it should be, we all have a vested interest in the success of the city, the state, and the country. Take people at their word, rally behind them, and let's give them the opportunity you know, let's let them cook. Instead of spending all their time defending cynical or biased allegations or trying to undermine them at every step, give them the benefit of the doubt

and try and help them be successful. I think every American, every person in New York City has an obligation to do that. Good for them. The other observation I would have is the following. Molly Jong-Fast did a video piece on, and I like Molly, I just had her on the podcast for The New York Times saying, you know, does America have a bias against female candidates?

And I'm like, no shit, Captain, fucking obvious. Let me just give you the basic statistics here. If you were to look at all of our elected representatives, all 535 people in Congress, the only thing they all have in common, like 90 plus or 97% of them, the primary requisite, the box they have to all check, which means it's the key consideration for electing someone to a senior level of Congress, is they have college degrees. So that's the primary qualification. For the last 40 years, almost 60% of college graduates

have been women. And yet 26% of our elected representatives are women. The reality is Americans still very much conflate height and depth of voice with leadership qualities when it comes to our elected representatives. And if you look at the candidate quality of the new Jersey and Virginia governor races. Yeah.

The quality that can't, I think I can speak to this with some credibility because if you look at their backgrounds, they were built in the factory from parts of lesser candidates. Yeah. And their opponents were just, you know, fairly mediocre. Yeah. And the fact that they, the fact that it was even, and granted, towards the end, they just pulled away. It wasn't close.

But the reality is, if you don't believe. that America still has really anti-biased feelings against women with indoor plumbing running for an elected office. The two prime examples are Harris v. Trump and Clinton versus Trump. Yes, yes. But there is still, while I talk a lot about the advantages or disadvantages facing young men, when it comes to elected politics, our nation is still highly sexist. Absolutely. Let me jump in here.

One of the things about Abby Spanberger, which is really interesting, is her mother was like a massive fighter for the Equal Rights Amendment and was sort of mocked by the Virginia legislature and her daughter is the first woman governor of Virginia, which I think is take time, Scott. I would agree with you here. It's taken too long in the U.S.

Other nations are way ahead of us. Far too long. But now we have all these like women governors. There's a lot of women governors, which is really interesting. I think it should be half and half, but there's quite a gang now of them. You mean a gaggle?

a gaggle of women go including white women drinking wine no it's not but all there's all these that's good you know what actually there's a lot of women of color who won mayorships Detroit around around Detroit I think it was the first black woman there's a bunch there's a whole bunch in smaller cities and and a lot of these city councils shifted to Democrat up and down the ballot up and down the ballot like city councils in places and there are a lot of women in those groups and so you've got to bring them up like you've got to just keep shoving them through the pipeline essentially all the way up. And I think possibly some of the ones that have run for public office at the higher level just got so beat up. Hillary Clinton got the shit beat out of her by the right.

Like, you know what I mean? Like they made it so she was so unattractive to voters in many ways. And I think the same thing for Harris. I think there will be a series of younger women candidates that are coming up that will not have to deal with the baggage that both Clintons particularly and Harris definitely had. Now, let's get back to Mamdani, which I think one of the things, I know you're making fun of the oligarchy. I think running against the oligarchy

is a great message for Democrats. And I think that does resonate. I'm telling you, when I talk to people, they're like, that's the Bernie Sanders. Yeah, I've got to say these rich people, the Lincoln, why is he putting pictures of Lincoln bathroom up?

You know, he's building a marble bathroom while they can't afford. It is such, it's next to the affordability thing, but tax the rich and make things, groceries more affordable is a very good message for whichever party gets it, except that Trump has been embracing the rich as his best friends and having them on his patio. The visuals are very clear. And that gold office, Jesus. So first off, and this is while I'll never run or be elected, I'm focused on the mechanics. And that is rather than saying tax the rich, where most rich people pay really high taxes,

It's the super rich. And a better message is just to enforce the current tax loss. There's a $700 billion tax gap because what the Republicans did, which is genius, which the Democrats have not called out, as they argue around the tax code, what the Republicans have done is delivered the biggest tax cut in history by virtue of cutting the budget of the IRS. Yeah. The tax code is meaningless for rich people because here's the bottom line. The laws in America, the top 1% are now protected by the law, but not bound by it. Whereas the bottom 99% are bound by the law, but not protected by it. Who pays their exact share, according to the IRS of taxes?

Paroswisher. People with simple tax returns. No, I don't have that. That have a number that goes under income, and then there's a tax rate. But if you have an 80-page tax return through limited partnerships and capital expenditures, and your tax lawyer says, wink, wink, trust me on this, don't hide income, but be as aggressive as possible because they don't have the manpower any longer to look at this thing. You're just, we need to be smart about it.

What's the objective? The objective is to get more money into the Treasury. More revenue. It's very simple. You don't even need an alternative minimum tax. No loopholes. If you make over a million dollars, you pay an alternative, an AMT of federal income taxes of 40 percent. That would massively increase our receipts.

Of course. But guess what? Trump is like friend of billionaire. Agreed. That's his image. And he'll try to not do that, but these people have open access to the White House, right? That's what they have. They walk in and get what they want. It's an oligarchy. Oligarchy meets cronialism meets socialism. Well, it's a good message. So I don't know if you saw this, but there were billboards all over New York showing, it was just, oh my God, fucking brilliant. And it said, Mamdami, 92% likelihood of winning Cuomo 8%. When you see that, when you see that, you're like, if I'm voting for Cuomo, I might just not bother, right? That's it. We're done. And it gives Momdami or whoever is projected

as the runaway winner. It's basically the biggest endorsement ever that they could get from any group. It really helps the candidate. But they were accurate. They were also accurate. Well, but here's the thing. And I'm saying for any candidate, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. When you see polls showing that person way up, you start believing, well, maybe they deserve to win. And there's a reason they're winning by such a large margin.

And you know where the majority of bets, right, are coming from these prediction markets. Not here. The majority of the bets on polymarket that indicate and send a signal. about the election and likely affect the election, the majority of those bets are coming out of China and the Middle East. So if you're the CCP, again, this is what we would do. I think they'd be stupid not to do it.

I would be fucking with our elections by skewing the numbers from the reality based on what we saw as divisive, we being the CCP, on calcium polymarket, which sends a very strong signal around who's gonna win. Well, we'll see if more people, I don't think as many people know about it you think. Oh, the media. It's the new Dow Jones and NASDAQ. Yes, I get that. I get that. But,

you know, I don't know. Polling has gotten tarnished. I think they'll get tarnished eventually if it's too gamed, and we'll see where it goes from there. Well, you know my suggestion around polling. What? Don't have any? You should absolutely take a poll and stick it up your ass. Okay. All right, excellent. Okay. And then look for the on switch. Look for the on switch. He's back. He's back. When I was in London during the presidential election, I went on every podcast. It was 30%, it was 30% Harris, 70% Trump. And I'm like, it's a coin flip, folks. And so I thought, I'm smarter than your average bear and da-da-da.

And I said, I'm going to bet $300,000 on Harris. And if I win, I'm going to get a million back. And I was up until goddamn two in the morning in London trying to figure out how to bet. And it ends up you can't as a U.S. citizen in London. And I brought in the big guns. I brought him a 15-year-old to aid and abet his father's gambling and dopamine addiction. And the next day, and of course, you know the results. And everyone online just went crazy, like, this guy lost $300,000 on Harris.

And I would have had I been able to figure out Kalshi or Polly Market. Oh, exactly. Well, then maybe not. Okay. All right. Then maybe I just don't understand. I tried to understand it was very hard. We're going to go on a quick break.

When we come back, Trump's tariffs face the Supreme Court. Support for this show comes from Vanta. Here are a few things that are probably essential to your company's survival in the modern world, internet access, a tax ID, a great snack pantry. Well, here's something else that's essential. Trust. In today's fast-changing digital world, proving your company is trustworthy isn't just important for growth. It's essential.

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Framer.com slash design promo code pivot. Rules and restrictions may apply. Support for the show comes from Sacks Fifth Avenue. Sacks Fifth Avenue makes it easy to shop for your personal style. Follow us here, and you can invest in some new arrivals that you'll want to wear again and again, like a relaxed prodig blazer and Gucci loafers, which can take you from work to the weekend. Shopping from Sacks feels totally customized from the in-store stylist to a visit to sacks.com, where they can show you things that fit your style and taste.

They'll even let you know when arrivals from your favorite designers are in, or when that Brinella Cuccinelli sweater you've been eyeing is back in stock. So, if you're like me and you need shopping to be personalized and needs, head to Sachs Fifth Avenue for the best-fellow rivals and style inspiration. Scott, we're back. A majority of the Supreme Court justices are skeptical of the Trump administration's authority to impose sweeping global tariffs. The court heard arguments this week about Trump's use of emergency powers

to set up tariffs on goods from over 100 countries. The administration is claiming tariffs are just regulatory, but justices on both sides basically said these are tax. taxes, and only Congress can tax people. Trump is calling for the case, quote, literally life or death for our country. If the terrorists stand, they'll collect $3 trillion by revenue for the U.S. by 2035. If not, the government might have to refund $750 billion, which it shouldn't have gotten. It's not clear when the court will issue the ruling, but what does it mean for Trump's signature economic policy if he loses? I think they're going to decide against him, and I think they're doing

him a favor because they're going to get him out of this jam and then he can pretend it was them who did it. I don't know. What do you think of this? So, speaking of investing, you know how I went out and I bought claims against a bankrupt FTX? Because I thought they're going to, they're going to be. Yeah. I found in the bankruptcy filing, which is if you're wondering what I do late at night on edibles, I read bankruptcy filings, that they owned, that they had invested about, I think it was 500 million dollars in Anthropic. And I thought, this has got to be worth two or three billion dollars, meaning that 30 cents on the dollar, because the total claims were eight billion against a bankrupt FTX, were just, they were going to get back just in Anthropic stock.

And you could buy these things for about 22 cents. So I went out and, for me, bought a lot of bankruptcy claims against, or claims against a bankrupt FTX. What I've had someone working on the last two weeks is the following. If you're, first up, there was an economist to went on Fox, and they said, who's paying these tariffs? And he went into this whole song and dance bikes. Sometimes it's the person exporting in. Say it's Mercedes. Sometimes it's Mercedes takes a little bit, the consumer takes a little bit,

and the recipient of the product pays. Okay, first off, what he's trying to say, he's claiming that, okay, because Mercedes might have to reduce its prices if they don't want to lose share, fine. But it'll be clear, folks. the recipient in America who signs for the Mercedes that gets off a ship pays the tariff, okay? They may choose not to pass it on to consumers, or they may.

Eventually they will because companies need certain operating margins, but it's disingenuous to say it's being split across all these entities. It's not. A tariff is paid by the recipient in our country. Now, what I've been doing is looking into the following. I am considering buying claims, and that is, if Mercedes of Wisconsin has paid $11 million in tariffs, you can go buy them right now from Mercedes of Wisconsin for somewhere between 10 and 15 cents on the dollar. Because they didn't think they'd get them back, right?

Because they didn't think they'd get that money. They'd ever see that money again. And I believe there's a greater than 10 or 15 percent likelihood that these tariffs are reversed, and the government has to cut a check. to all those claimants who paid tariffs. So I actually think this is a decent investment strategy, is to go by claims or go by tariff payment claims. So this money will be refunded, is your point.

So you feel like the Supreme Court's gonna back him here, not back him, the opposite of backing him, is gonna go against Trump. Exactly right. Mercedes of Wisconsin spent $10 million on tariffs. These tariffs are being challenged in court, and if the Supreme Court overrules it, The government is going to have to send a check to either Mercedes of Wisconsin or whoever owns that claim.

Although that was what the Supreme Court was all wrapped around the axel on. A friend of my Neil Cotill did the argument, and I thought he was brilliant, by the way. That was the one thing they were like, oh, now how are we going to give it back, right? And oddly enough, Howard Lutnik, who was such a moron. Every time I see him, I think a moron, was like, oh, I think the Supreme Court's going to say yes to us and stuff like. that. He was going on and on as if he knew exactly what would happen. Is there any way that could happen only because I thought, oh, he's a moron? When you say anyway, anyway, what? That the Supreme Court could be in Trump's favor, one, and two, the one thing that did stick in

their crawl was how to pay back the money the government took from consumers. What people don't realize, when they reverse engineer to what has really hurt America, it's things like Ruth Bader Ginsburg believing she's going to live forever. Yes, she should have. It's a appointment of exceptionally conservative justices. The Supreme Court, in my opinion, is no longer really a check against power. It's an enabler. And the reality is the president who the people elect gets to make those appointments. So, but through a series of unfortunate timing and biology, the lasting impact of this presidency won't be tariffs, anti-immigration policy, a destruction of our alliances, although that'll be right up there.

A lot of marble in the Lincoln bathroom. It's essentially the final backstop against the most important decisions that impact Americans, whether it's bodily autonomy or international policy, whether or not the president right now is essentially ordering

extrajudicial killings of people in fucking fishing boats. Yeah. That, and by the way, folks, if you're really worried about drugs, you realize these fishing boats would have to refuel 20 times to get to Miami

and that there is no fentanyal produced in Venezuela, yet supposedly we're taking our trillion-dollar military budget to strike fishing points without any- Well, Pete Hagseth has to do something. But get back to this. What do you think is going to happen here? And how is they going to return the money? Let me be clear. I think probably the likelihood is if I buy these claims that I don't see my money, but there's more than a 10% chance I see the money. Right. Okay. So I like my upside. All right. I think maybe there's a one-and-three chance. I'm just using that number that the Supreme Court rules against Trump and says, you got to give them money back. And then I think, see, I actually think logistically, if they can figure out a way to take the money, they can figure out a way to send it back. The government figures out ways to send refunds, IRS refunds all the time. It takes a while. I found out I overpaid my taxes this year.

They kept it. And I'm like, okay, how long will it take to get it back? And they said 12 to 18 months because there's no one home. The lights aren't on on the IRS. Or we'll apply it to your next year's tax. Yeah, whatever it is. But they're very good at taking it out. The IRS hasn't figured out a way to like take it right out. your account, getting it back. I know. It's like trying to cancel your Verizon bill, right? I got one from D.C. and I got a couple thousand dollars back there. Like, we'll keep it for next year. I was like, well, set it back to me. Like, why should you keep it? But their first move was to keep it. That's for sure. Well, try and cancel Hulu. It's super easy to sign up. Try and cancel it. And by the way, I have a consumer bone to pick. I'm like seven on your side. Remember those local TV things where they'd go NARC on some consumer thing? Yeah, yeah. I love seven on your side. I wanted to do that for

years. All right. I got a seven on your side. So when my mom passed, I set up an account and put some money in it in her account such that we could pay bills that would keep rolling in, right? And I noticed like three years later, it was down. I couldn't account for something like $7 or $8,000 of it, maybe four years later. I'm like, where did this go? And her auto insurance was automatic pay to Geico. Oh, you didn't cancel it. After I'd sold the car three years later, They will still take that money out. And guess what? I just got my AT&T bill. I switched to Noble Mobile, Andrew Yang's new startup in the mobile space. And my AT&T bill, I always said this, for some reason, is about $450 bucks.

But Scott, being the lazy douche that he is, never actually checked out the bill. And so my assistant, when we switched over, said, wow, you're paying $450 a month. I'm like, yeah. And she goes, you know why you're paying $450 a month. My actual phone bill is $240, which is ridiculous. By the way, it's about two and a half X when I'm going to be paying on Noble.

But I was paying another $200 on three other accounts. Oh, that aren't on there. And one of them was for a Blackberry from 10 years ago. Oh, my God, Scott. So I have been paying $700 a year for the better part of a decade on a blackberry that's been in a landfill for the last nine years. Because guess what? You're a lazy fuck. They could easily send a signal to say, is this in fact an active line and maybe send you a quick email?

They could do this so easily. Yeah, of course they don't. You're a mark. And they're like, oh, no, they would be charged me for a Blackberry 10 years after my death. I think you deserve that. I have to say, I'm down with the company. If you're that stupid, let them cook. Let them take your pocket.

Anyways, AT&T, literally, you somebody, like I have paid. for the snacks in the Madison, Wisconsin Office of AT&T for the last 10 years, my Blackberry. Well, much deserved because you're a dumbass. You don't pay attention to anything like that. Dumbass. Dumbass. Dumbass. That's the name of our pivot tour. Dumbass and smarty. Kara and Dumbass. Everybody wants to hear about me, not about any of this shit. Kara, let's be honest. All right. Well, good to know. So I'm going to move very quickly to this one. Just as I predicted billionaire and friend of Elon, Jared Isaacman, is back. the running to head up NASA. President Trump has re-nominated him after pulling back over concerns

about past Democratic donations. Isaacman's, the 42-year-old payment company founder, who's actually been to space twice on his own time via SpaceX. I mean, just the short ride to space. Two weeks ago, Elon Musk went after current interim chief Sean Duffy for opening up SpaceX Moon contract, other companies. No love loss there. Trump's gone back to Elon's pick like I thought he might. But the agency He is still facing massive budget cuts and trying to beat China back to the moon. You know, I guess he's fine. I mean, he's more qualified than other people, I suppose. But the whole thing is just, it's kind of too little too late.

I would like an actual space scientist to be running NASA, not friends of Elon or people that give. I think this guy ended up giving Trump some money to, although he must have given some Democrats money, which I think drove Laura Lumer crazy. I don't know. I'm not sure it matters at all here, but Elon definitely is a good, that. That was a good thing for Elon. Well, it reflects a dangerous trend in that as we've decided to privatize a lot of efforts that usually the nation undertakes. And this is pretty straightforward. Elon Musk, who's a very smart guy, is that if we reduce the government's ability to launch aircraft or explore space, they're going to be dependent upon the private sector.

And I'm the, you know, I'm the prettiest girl at the dance in the private sector. And I don't want to compete with a space agency that does not have a profit motive and therefore can make these forward-leaning investments in space exploration. And I think the saddest thing about this is that NASA has consistently been an enormous point of national pride in an era when we need more connective tissue where Republicans and Democrats both rally around the Mars lander, you know, like somehow crashing and inflating and figuring out a way to survive how to get on the, you know, the Mars, you know, the Mars. and take these amazing photos, or these, I forget what it was that, that the Hubble telescope sending back those unbelievable images of deep space and making you feel insignificant in kind of a wonderful way. And so that's a bummer. Having said that, as far as this guy goes, this is like the least triggering thing for me

right now. Yeah, exactly. I mean, fine. I mean, Sean Duffy was the other choice. So I'm like, and he's better. And also, there's something to be said for bringing in a civilian to manage government agencies who can have a broader perspective. Like, typically, the Secretary of Defense is a private sector person.

Yeah. Because when you bring in a former captain... Game show host. No, but some... I mean, they've said it. If we had a general running who was Secretary of Defense, we'd still be in Vietnam. I mean, they're fond, although a lot of them, I got to give it to them seem to be more tempered and measured than many of them.

our leaders now. It is good to have a civilian check on government. I don't mind this. This is the bottom line. I'm not offended by it. He's not the best choice, but he's not a terrible choice. And the other choice with Sean Duffy, who seems like a, speaking of morons, a moron. Anyway, we'll see what happens. I was correct about this. And I was right. I was right. You tout your rightness. The new book from Kara Swisher, the new autobiography, and dot, dot, dot, dot, I was right. Oh my God. The poor aren't getting me. Oh, how dare they? I used to run driver's license tests at the DMV,

and now I'm picking out produce for New Yorkers. That makes all kinds of sense. Oh, my God. We're going to have to have a wrestling match on stage over this situation. All right, I'm going to invite Zoran Mondani to the New York thing. He'll say no. I've already invited him several times. He's the only person that said no to us on raging moderates.

I concur with him on that issue. Interview the guy. He'll get on you sometime. He'll take you down. town. He's very good at debating. Oh, yeah. I hope so. He's pretty handsome. Scott, he's very quick. He's not quick. He floods the zone with nothingness and like re-hitted rhetorical flourish. Even James Carville, your favorite southern person, James Carville was like, this is a real tall. He's a real talent. We're going to have us an election, count some votes.

I love James Carville. Jimmy C. All right. Let's go on a quick break. When we come back, Trump's tariffs face the Supreme Court. You know what's better than the one big thing? Two big things. Exactly. The new iPhone 17 Pro on TELUS's five-year rate plan price lock. Yep, it's the most powerful iPhone ever, plus more peace of mind with your bill over five years.

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With the weather getting colder, it's a lot easier to stay inside, turn on the TV, and ignore the rest of the world for a while. But when you're all alone and isolated, during these short dark days, it's very easy to get down on yourself. Human connection is important. And this November, BetterHelp wants you to reach out, make a coffee date with an old friend, write a letter to a distant family member, and take steps to connect with a licensed therapist with BetterHelp.

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their first month at BetterHelp.com slash pivot. That's betterhelp.com slash pivot. Scott, we're back. Palantiers having a really roller coaster week. The company posted blockbuster earnings Monday, topping analysts' expectations and raising its full-year guidance. CEO Alex Karp, who seems something's going on with Alex Karp. He was started strange, and now he's moved to very strange, called the quarter, quote, arguably the best results than any software company has ever delivered. Despite those numbers, the stock fell 8%, part of the concerns over the valuation, which is soaring, but also because of filing revealed the big short investor Michael Burry bought more than $1 billion in put options in Palantir and in Video,

The Bury News really got it her carp skin. He really should have taken a breath before he did this. He got a little testy talking about it on CNBC. Let's listen. Currently, as far as I can tell, the two companies he's shorting are the ones making all the money, which is super weird. The idea that chips and ontology is what you want to short is bat shit crazy. He seemed crazy, but whatever.

And then he went on about anti-woke companies. He used to be sort of weirdly demonstrated. but a little bit libertarian. Now he seems to have been, you know, sucking on the, on the Kool-Aid of right-wingery. But what do you think of these Palantir numbers and what Burry might be up to, possibly shorting these stocks? You've talked about these valuations quite a lot. So look, the question is, is Karp a brilliant CEO? And is this an amazing company? Or is it dramatically overvalued? The answer is yes. This is an incredible company. It, it has, It blew away really aggressive earnings.

It had 21 cents, delivered 21 cents versus 17 cents, 1.2 billion versus 1.1 expected. Their commercial software sales grew 121% year over year. U.S. government sales or sales to the government grew 52%, which is actually better revenue because while the government is really hard to sell to, once you sell into them, they become like AT&T just billing you over and over. Overall sales grew 63% from year over year-over-year revenue growth of four. 48 percent last quarter. So it's an incredible company. And I would argue that in terms of investor relations, he's probably one of the most talented CEOs in history. He's the one that did an earnings call on his phone walking around the office. He's just, he's able to paint a vision

that gets people excited. At the same time, if it went down 70 percent tomorrow, it still wouldn't look cheap. It trades at almost 300 times earnings and 1205 times sales. It has the greatest or the highest price of sales multiple in the S&P 500. And get this, it's got a similar market capitalization or value to Netflix with one-tenth of the revenue. It's trading at the same valuation. So what is Burry doing? Explain for the people. Well, Burry, it's very simple. Burry's basically short of the stock where you basically agree, you enter into a relationship with a third party who says, all right, if the stock's trading at 400 right now in six months, I'll give you $10 or $15 now in exchange. I get to sell you stock in six months for $400.

And if the stock goes down to $300, I get to go into the market and buy it for $300 and sell it to you for $400, which you agreed to because I paid you a small premium six months ago. You're basically betting the stock goes down. That's all. And it's an important part of the market because it creates a balance, it creates opportunity to hedge such that people who are invested long, including widows and orphans, have more diversification and more downside protection. Shorting the market is a key component of the market. But it's dangerous now because look at Tesla, which has not good results and is still up. Oh, don't, kids, don't do this at home because when you go short a stock, you technically have unlimited downside. And the reason why I have not shorted Palantir,

although I think it's dramatically overvalued, is this is no longer a company, it's a meme stock. And that is, you know, he can make an announcement and people buy Palantir and trade it. It is, there are certain companies now where, and this is really kind of arguably, I think a decent definition of a meme stock, where it's lost all connection to the underlying metrics

that we traditionally value stocks on. So is it dramatically overvalued by all traditional valuation metrics and cash flows? Yeah, could it double? Yeah, it could. And it would make even less sense. So what do you think of Burry's move? Again, do you think he's taking enormous risk here?

Because Karp got very testy in a way that I was like, wow, you're usually quite controlled. And this was. Yeah, I thought that was a bad look for him. But Burry, who is, you know, obviously made one of the best bets ever going short against the subprime market. And good for him. I love it when people do that sort of work. And the other guys that did that were John Paulson. A guy I actually worked for, consulted to for a couple of years.

named Phil Falcone. There were two or three people that made kind of these historic bets against subprime mortgages. And again, could go out and short these things for no money because they were considered, they were considered money good and bulletproof. And then they just started collapsing like it was a pyramid, you know, built on card, so to speak. Now, no investor gets a right all the time. He's had a lot of big misses. He's shorted a bunch of companies that went up. So nobody knows. He might, he's taking a risk. He's taking a risk. care. I would argue this is a really good risk for a guy like that who has investors who are willing to take these kinds of risks. And he's hoping to drive it down by pointing out the ridiculousness.

Well, I love, I love it. I find it so fascinating when these companies go short and then they put out really thoughtful, rigorous research showing why the company is dramatically overvalued. And it impacts the market. He didn't just say, he didn't just announce that he's shorting it. he has a very thoughtful, rigorous analysis, and the stock's down 11%. Yeah, so he's done, I mean, he could probably be, you know, anyway, it's a really interesting. We have to keep watching that company, because the question is, is it going to be a mean stock for a long time, but we'll see. Very quickly, right-wing civil war is erupting. This is it.

We'll talk about this on the road, I think, is erupting after Tucker Carlson's recent interview with white nationalist Nick Fuentes, where Fuentes called for an exclusive pro-white Christian movement. The backlash has been swift with Republicans like Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, and Speaker Mike Johnson condemning the interview. The Heritage Foundation is an open result after its president defended Carlson. For his part, Carlson says the upward is really a fight over what happens after Donald Trump. I think he's absolutely correct. The guy who's had the heritage apologized again after all these people left, the whole one whole group that focuses on anti-Semitism and heritage resigned. And so this is a real open wound for the Republican Party, the flirtation with both anti-Semitism and

and white nationalism and racism. And this is gonna be a real fight going forward for them. And once Trump is, he's been able to hold it together, but they won't be able to hold this one together. Yeah, remember the Republican Party was putting out these memes or these images that said Trump, Elon, Kanye, that these are the three people that represent the Republican Party, right? Yeah.

I was on the phone two days ago with someone, who runs or does comms for Democrats. And I said, you need to put out the exact same image, but instead have it be Trump, Epstein, and Fuentes. Oh, interesting. That's who you want Trump associated with. I'm like, go for the fucking jugular. It would be fair to visually associate them

because he decided to associate with them physically, spiritually, intellectually. And the most disturbing thing about that interview with Fuentes and Carlson, And first off, Carlson really does deserve some pushback and legitimate criticism for platforming someone like this and enabling and laughing. When he said the following, I'm a fan of Stalin. Yeah. There's kind of a hard rock first ballot hall of fame of murderers in history. Yeah, he's on the top. Paul Pot, Hitler.

They have nothing on Stalin. Agreed. And we like to kind of ignore Stalin a little bit because they were our first. friends back then, and they played a huge role in defeating Hitler. But he then went on to kill millions, some say up to 20 million people. This is a murderous maniac. And this young man is saying, I'm a fan. So I, and Trump has this issue of like, we want your votes and we want you to think we're with you, wink, wink, such that you get out and turn out the vote. But try to keep those views to yourself as opposed to coming out and saying, we're Republicans. And the

GOP has a history of evaluating people based on their character, inequality, and pushing back on fascism, and saying what this is. These people could not be more anti-American and against the values, not only of America, but the core values are the GOP. Well, the old GOP, let's just be clear, because some people are backing with Carlson, which is, you know, I don't, I don't mind him interviewing him. He, there's all kinds of assholes. But the way he did it again was like, whoa, you could push back a little bit there. And the Heritage Foundation president, I think he'll be out.

I think he'll be out. I think this is a death now for this guy. I don't know. I just felt very weird, the whole thing. We'll see what's happening. This is a story that's going to continue. My favorite was Stephen Miller's wife when she was criticized her comments saying it was anti-Semitism. Yeah.

I said, what? Where'd that come from? Where'd that come from? Yeah. I don't think they even know your Jew. What are you talking? She's getting ratioed all over the place by people. Stephen Schmidt, who's a very funny, but sort of sometimes erratic guy.

He's very funny. Put up all these pictures of Stephen Miller with creep and fascist and Nazi. And she got all up, because she's trying to make Megan Kelly happen, I guess, around herself, which is impossible. And she's like, she said something. And she goes, how could you do this? And he wrote, because your husband's a Nazi. Like, this whole fight is not good for the Republican Party to be discussing. how, whether they're Nazis or not.

No, it's not a good look. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. Good Noticings, Ashley. Good Noticings to you, Claire. And to the listeners, welcome to Good Noticings. What isn't Kevin Federline's memoir? Who is Mel Robbins?

And why should we let her? Have you seen a wonder market popping up in your neighborhood? Have you eaten it? Why is it so disgusting? Who robbed the lov? These questions and why we are deep diving into as we read all of the hottest articles about the buzziest cultural moments from last week

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com slash pivot okay scott we're going to do a little differently today for your prediction we have a lot of purchases next week but we're recording ahead of tesla's annual meeting where shareholders are set to vote on Elon's one trillion dollar pay packages. A lot of people have gone against them, including these shareholders services, and Norway, I guess there's a Norwegian investor that's out. I predict he's going to get it. I predict he's going to get it because all these, now I'm paying attention to the stock market now. There's all these calls at a higher level of buying a Tesla stock at 480 and it's at 462. I think people know and I think he's going to get it. Yeah, it's, well, look, some things, why it may pass, it is structured to be performance-based.

Yeah. And that is, he's saying if he grows the market cap to $8.5 trillion, that he gets a trillion. So theoretically, you can support it, right? And also some people, including arguably the worst investor of the modern age, but the best brand builder, Kathy Wood from Arc Invest. Her. She's predicted a strong approval. She's a loyalist. She's a shareholder. Tesla's board, Ann Musk, are saying that the package may risk Musk continued leadership if, in fact, he doesn't get it. Now, major proxy advisory firms, and I've met with these guys when I was an activist, ISS and Glass-Louis, which quite frankly have diminishing power these days. They've recommended

voting against the package, citing, you know, saying it's just ridiculously excessive and risks of dilution. And also, the term they use that I love is insufficient guardrails. I'm like, well, that's the mother of all understatements. And then there's a pretty big investor, I think it's called Norhes or Norges Bank. Yeah, it's this Norwegian group. They own about 1% of Tesla's shares, has declared it'll vote against the proposal. So what's your prediction? I think it's going to be approved, not overwhelmingly, but I think it'll be.

Because keep in mind, if you bought shares, if you are a shareholder in Tesla right now, you've decided. you've gone in on Musk because you're not investing in a there's no way you could justify investing in what is an automobile company because it makes no sense right he's this company is consistently missed delivery deadlines it's it's revenues on the automobile side are declining faster incredibly you're basically betting on a that this guy can pull another rabbit the size of Jupiter out of a hat which he has done before so they're kind of all in on this guy yeah this from pass, he's going to get it. He's not going to be a, everyone's like the world's first trillionaire. He's not going to be a trillioner until he pulls it off, just so you know.

Yeah, he has to create an additional $7 trillion in value. But that stock's going to go up, speaking of meme stocks. That's what I think. I just have no idea with this thing. So in terms of the stock price here, but it's, I think shareholders who have invested in a company at this type of evaluation, do not want to wake up and hear that Elon, you know, is out because he got angry. I don't, if he walks, this thing. Of course he'll walk. God, it would be so interesting to see what happens to the stock. I don't think he's going to, but they just would rather say, okay, look, if he creates $7 trillion, if Tim Cook went to Apple shareholders and said it's worth $4 trillion now, if I go to $12 trillion, I want a trillion. They'd give it to them. Theoretically,

they give it to them. That's not outrageous. What the problem is, we're focused on the wrong problem, and that is, if Elon Musk makes a trillion dollars, in my view, he should pay an alternative minimum tax at 60 or 70%. Back to that. The oligarchy and authoritarianism and grocery stores for poor people. No, and I want someone from the Navy picking out my cold cuts and fruits and vegetables. Oh, my God. Oh, for goodness sake, it's like three stores. I think someone from the IRS should be picking out my grapefruit. I'm going to do everything I can to get Mom Domini come out to our show. We'll ask him questions and he'll say nothing, but he's good lucking. I should have someone who doesn't like you in every city.

I hope to think about that. That's going to be pretty easy. You're not going to have to reach very far here. That's true. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 85551 Pivot. Scott, are you ready for the tour?

Are you ready? It's time to put your head on for this. Are you ready for a week of Kara Swisher? Yeah, I'm excited. It's going to be great to see the Swishers. We've got a whole gaggle coming with us. We're literally like a gaggle. We're like a bad rock band in the 70s.

We have groupies coming with us. I'm like, want to come? Like, sure. Yeah, sure. Why not? Yeah, yeah. We have some great people coming and showing up at each of the cities. And we have a few tickets left in some cities, not many, especially Los Angeles and

Chicago because they're much bigger venues. But go to pivottour.com for more info. Okay, that's the show. listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week. Scott, read us out, and I will see you Saturday in Canada. Yeah, I'll see you soon as we are. Today's show is produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe, Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Corinne Ruff. Bernieert, Todd, engineered this episode. Jim Mackle edited the video. Thanks also to Juberos, Missavario, Dan Ceylon, and Kate Gallagher. Nishak Kerou as Vox Media's executive producer of

podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York magazine and Box Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nirmatimag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things, tech, and business.