Pivot - Market Meltdown, Tariff Winners and Losers, and TikTok Deadline Delayed
Episode Date: April 8, 2025Kara and Scott discuss the markets' wild ride thanks to Trump's tariffs, China's retaliation plans, and Howard Lutnick's theory about a manufacturing resurgence coming to the United States. Then, a de...eper dive into some of the tariff winners (Warren Buffett), and losers (Big Tech), and some advice for panicked investors. Plus, the TikTok deadline gets extended yet again. Follow us on Instagram and Threads at @pivotpodcastofficial. Follow us on Bluesky at @pivotpod.bsky.social. Follow us on TikTok at @pivotpodcast. Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or at nymag.com/pivot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Well, that's unfair. They'd fuck their mothers for a nickel. I think that's more accurate.
Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network.
I'm Kara Swisher in my new studio without books behind me,
but they will have them.
Here I am, Scott. How do I look?
Oh my God. Could you be any more,
well, you're apologizing for not having books behind you.
Well, I'm going to have awards.
My many awards is what I'm going to have.
Yeah.
Do you like my new studio? It's in my house.
I'm not sure I like the Red Share, quite frankly.
Really? Why? Does it upset you? Does it threaten you?
No. It takes me back to an era I think you've moved on.
I think you've turned the page on the Red Share.
We'll see. I like it for now. I'm going to leave it because it upsets you.
It upsets and disturbs you.
You mean it's like retro or that reminds you of
what Mossberg who I just had lunch with.
No, I love wall. I just think you've moved on.
I don't know.
What color chair should I have with you in the Scott era?
Plaid. No, I don't know.
Black.
I'm going to put your blanket that I stole from
the five farms for your birthday.
Oh, good. That'd be nice.
I'll put that on. Okay.
Okay. All right. I'll drape it.
I'll drape a Scottish, a Scott Scottish thing on it.
And to make it.
Now, I think it reminds us how old you are.
But anyways.
Oh, God, literally.
Right out of the gate.
Go ahead.
Right out of the gate.
Go ahead.
You were on your college tour.
Tell me that you were away last week
with your lovely guest hosts.
I went to Jen Psaki and John Lovett.
They were great.
Jen Psaki, those are both great. They are great. Jen Psaki, those are both great.
They are great. They were very lively.
I'd like to be friends with both of them. I'd like to be friends with Rolla.
We'll see about that.
She's interesting and attractive and he's interesting.
Really? Okay.
Sorry. Sorry, John.
Anyway.
Who's the handsome one?
Who's the handsome one?
All of them. Oh, Jon Favreau is who you're thinking about.
Oh, he's dreamy. That dude's dreamy.
I think John Lovett's adorable. Oh, he's dreamy. Yeah. That dude's dreamy.
I think John Love is adorable.
Yeah, he's good looking.
He was on Survivor. Do you know he was on the show Survivor?
He was on Survivor.
Yeah, he was on Survivor.
He's way too smart and over thought. He's out in the second round.
Yeah, he was out pretty quick, I think.
That guy's too.
I don't watch that.
That guy's, I'm going to do this, I'm going to do this, I'm voting John off the island.
Okay, college tour, back to me.
Yeah, a college tour. Tell me about the college tour, because I really don't want to talk about White Lotus in any way.
So eight schools in five days,
seven straight days of full parenting,
cleared everything, didn't talk to anybody.
I only talk to you once, if that.
It was about the college tour.
Mm-hmm.
We went to, I like to personify everything.
Obviously.
Just so I can make sure my kid gets into none of them,
I'll personify each of them.
So the first one we did was U-Dub,
University of Wisconsin-Madison.
When I was at UCLA, the fraternity next to mine was the Phi Caps.
The Phi Caps were basically these white dudes from
small towns who abuse substances who did really well on the SAT.
Okay.
That is the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who abuse substances, who did really well on the SAT. Okay.
That is the University of Wisconsin-Madison,
except it's a girl who wears too much makeup,
who really likes makeup.
And...
What?
But they're doing their job.
Actually, UW-Madison, I rag a lot on higher education.
They're doing their job.
They let in a shit-ton of kids.
It's crowded.
They have money, but it's not the Ritz-Carlton, Madison. They let in a shit ton of kids. It's crowded.
They have money, but it's not the Ritz-Carlton, Madison.
They get it.
They got the assignment.
I felt really good.
I actually met with someone there just second virtue signal.
They do this amazing program where they train prisoners
or they do classes at local prisons.
I'm giving some money to it.
They're doing their job.
I was really impressed with them.
OK, so you like them.
But you just insulted them so your son's not getting in there now.
But go ahead and move along.
There we go. Thanks for that.
And then we went to Chicago.
Chicago's a dude.
University of. That's what you're talking about.
Yeah, UChicago.
I did a session there in the Institute of Politics with David Axelrod.
He's great.
Yeah. Which is available on YouTube.
And imagine a guy in a park.
They're one of two things.
They either win a Nobel Prize.
Everyone who goes there either wins a Nobel Prize
or ends up in a park without shoes, feeding pigeons and speaking to themselves.
I mean, these people are...
I can't imagine people I would rather not party with
than anyone who went to the University of Chicago.
Having said that, having said that,
anyone that interviews with me,
that went to the University of Chicago,
automatic hire, because they're self-hating,
they work all the time, they're brilliant,
modly depressed, perfect employees, perfect employees.
Let's move it through, okay, keep going.
Northwestern.
Okay.
This is the gay son we all want.
Oh, okay.
This is...
You can write a college tour book.
This is stylish, impressive.
Yeah.
Good in theater, but also, like,
takes AP everything and does well.
And it's the most...
There is clearly so much money there.
It is such a beautiful campus.
It is.
But the lake is just sitting there going,
oh, bitch, I'm gonna make it so cold
about three months a year.
All months a year.
Oh my God, you can just feel the wind.
You can feel mother winter in the wearer going,
oh, just wait and see what I'm gonna do to you.
Then we went to Michigan.
And saw my son.
Your son is Michigan personified.
Oh no, you better be careful because he loves you and I'm his mom.
Imagine you're a power forward and work all it all the time and a nice kid.
And you also get 11 million on the SAT.
They're like, these kids are.
Michigan is one of the schools, it's arguably the best public school in the nation, maybe
tied with Berkeley.
But you can go super deep on social or you could literally try and split the atom at
the building next to the cafeteria.
You could go deep either way.
They're eithing Michigan and it's a big school, I like to call out schools that are doing their
job.
They're living up to their mission.
They're trying to keep tuition reasonable.
It's not inexpensive, but educating a lot of kids.
They're doing their job, and it's a really impressive place.
And also, you can go deep in sports. And your son saved the day.
It was...
What happened?
It's storming, about 300 people.
By the way, we show up at,
we've been doing all these tours.
By the way, easy law.
It should be a law punishable by death.
No parents should be able to ask a question
in the fucking parents' teacher in the tours.
They all... I was so triggered. question in the fucking parents teacher in the tours.
They all, I was so triggered, none of the students
could ask a question because the over-parenting,
and get this, the highlight, this is a true story,
University of Chicago, University of Chicago,
three women, three moms asked the same question
sequentially about safety on campus.
What?
The name of daughters?
Yeah.
The threat to an 18-year-old freshman on college campuses is dwarfed by the suicidal ideation
of overprotection of parents that don't prepare them for the fucking real world.
Moms asking questions at parent teachers.
I don't think they should ask questions then.
I agree.
Parents at college tours are a bigger threat to your kids' safety.
All right, moving along.
So Alex took you on a tour, I understand.
Okay. Anyway, so we get there, they canceled the tour.
The weather was so bad, they're like, we're canceling the tour.
So you have 100 kids and 200 parents
just sitting in the hallway.
So I text Alex and he's like, yeah, come to the house.
We showed up.
Imagine you're an animal living inside a trash dumpster.
And it had Greek letters on the side.
It smells like-
Old beer.
Old beer.
There's shit everywhere.
And by the way, it's much nicer than my fraternity.
And it's these kids playing foosball, summer in suits,
summer studying physics.
There's a weight room.
He said he liked it.
He said you seemed to enjoy being there.
It took me back.
I lived in my fraternity for four years
and my girlfriend wouldn't come over.
I'd say, why wouldn't you come over?
And she said, it smells like cum.
I don't wanna come over. So I'd say, why wouldn't you come over? And she said, it smells like cum. I don't wanna come over.
So I came up with a business idea.
I came up with a business idea.
I'm gonna start a candle,
and it's either stale beer or cum.
I think it would work.
There are only four colleges in here.
Alex gave you a tour.
That's my Xenic Giano.
You saved the day.
Oh, I'm sorry.
Alex saved the day.
And then Alex said, no problem, come out of fraternity.
We cruised around his fraternity.
My son just got the biggest kick out of a fraternity.
And then he took us on this like, this like, I don't know,
Cliff Notes tour of Michigan and then took us for lunch.
He literally, Alex saved the day.
We were in a typhoon with a parent-teacher comp
or a tour canceled and Alex did this whirlwind.
He saved the day.
And my son is very impressed by Alex.
He couldn't have been nicer and more generous.
Not easy for a kid to just take two or three hours out of his day.
Anyway, thank you, Alex Swisher.
And then we went to Boston College,
which we were really impressed by.
I say that was the biggest surprise to the upside,
but it is sort of a, it's a fallen Catholic.
It's a kid that used to go to church,
and by the 11th grade, he's selling dope
out of his RAV4.
Is that the AOC college,
or did she go to Boston University?
Oh, AOC, what, there?
Yeah, I feel like Boston University is where she was.
It's a contradiction.
It looks like these kids are waiting to get home
and light up and maybe start doing some,
you know, doing some beer bongs,
but they're sisters everywhere.
I did not, I still haven't figured out
what's going on there, but it's a really impressive,
I was really pleasantly surprised by BC.
We then went to-
All right, we're gonna move as fast as we can.
Time check, go ahead.
We then went to UVA.
I wanna go to UVA. I want to go to UVA.
I think it's the most beautiful campus in the nation.
I think if we want to restore prosperity and mating,
I think men and women should each get a number and whatever the number is,
you get married on the spot on the lawn.
Everyone there is nice.
Everyone there is good-looking.
Everyone who's there is impressive.
Just marry them all off.
They should all just marry each other. They're never gonna find a talent pool like that.
The architecture.
And then we went to UNC,
and the terrible thing about teenagers
is they start getting these terrible things called opinions.
We got to UNC and my son was like a dog off a leash
in the park.
He just started running around and going in buildings
and something happened at UNC.
UNC is basically the hottest, smartest person
or the hottest most, the most popular kid in class
at all UNC schools have one thing in common.
They leave North Carolina.
The second hottest, most impressive person goes to UNC.
Great school. They're just- Great vibe. It's just got goes to UNC. Great school.
They're just-
Great vibe.
It's just got a great vibe.
Great vibe.
A great vibe.
Another school people love.
The two schools where they talk about it to this day is UNC and Michigan.
They love their schools.
They love their schools.
I'm not exaggerating and I'm a little bit scared to say this.
I don't think it'll impact anything,
but he walked to the top of the stairs.
I couldn't tell the difference between UNC and UVA,
except UVA looks like it has 50 or 60 wealthier donors.
It's a little newer, it's a little shinier,
but they look like the same school to me.
He walked to the top of the stairs,
he turned around and he looked out over the quad and he goes,
this is my school.
No, see, you know it. All right. Well, don't say anything.
All I can think about, 8 percent out-of-state admissions rate. I don't know if this is my school. No, see, you know it. All right, well, don't say anything. And all I can think about,
8% out of state admissions rate.
I don't know if it's your school.
You need to move to North Carolina.
That's what you need to do.
I literally chat GPT that.
How do you establish North Carolina residents?
It's not easy.
You actually have to live there.
Anyways, it's two Republicans,
but the governor's a great guy.
All right. I'm going to stop your college tour now,
because we're done.
It's good. I'm glad.
That's my college tour.
Next week.
All right. By the way, when you were gone,
things happened, my friend.
Lots of things happened.
Really? The world kept spinning?
The world did not keep spinning.
The world is crashing.
We're on a, let's get right in.
Let's get in. The US is crashing. We're on a, let's get right in, let's get in.
The US markets are on a roller coaster as we record Monday morning following an epic
two-day dive last week, epic in a bad term, that destroyed $6 trillion in market value
thanks to Donald Trump's tariffs, which seemed inane in the way they were formulated.
US stocks tumbled at the opening bell today, briefly surged following a report that Trump
was considering a 90-day pause, which many are suggesting to him, including Jamie Dimon and others from
bankers and other people.
The White House quickly called that report fake news, and the current Dow S&P 500 are
currently back in the red.
So a lot of volatility, to say the least.
Who knows what Trump will do.
In fact, he seemed to be sticking by his guns.
We'll get to winners and losers from these terms a little later, but we've seen overall, we've been seeing Goldman Sachs
has raised the odds of a U.S. recession of 45%. As Larry Summers put it, this is the
biggest self-inflicted wound we put on our economy in history. In terms of retaliation,
China was quick to respond, imposing a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the U.S.
starting on April 10th. Trump said he's going to impose an additional 50% on China if they don't drop that 34% increase. And of course, the TikTok deal went out the window.
The EU is expected to present a united front in the coming days with a set of targeted
countermeasures. Let me read a couple more things. This retaliation move's Treasury Secretary Scott
Vestent, who looks unhappy, said over the weekend that more than 50 countries have started negotiations
with the U.S. since the terror phenomenon, whatever, probably like the penguins maybe.
Though Trump also said, my policies will never change.
Howard Lutnick, who seems like the biggest clown of all besides Peter Navarro, which
are the two faces of this, also offered his take on how terrorists will lead to a manufacturing
resurgence in the U.S. on Face the Nation.
This quote, I literally was like,
this is the dumbest person I've ever met.
So let's go, let's listen to that
and then we'll get some reaction from you.
Remember the army of millions and millions of human beings
screwing in little, little screws to make iPhones.
That kind of thing is gonna come to America.
It's gonna be automated and great Americans,
the trade craft of America is gonna fix them, is gonna work to America, it's gonna be automated, and great Americans, the trade craft of America,
is gonna fix them, is gonna work on them.
There are gonna be mechanics,
there's gonna be HVAC specialists,
there's gonna be electricians,
the trade craft of America,
our high school educated Americans,
the core to our workforce is gonna have
the greatest resurgence of jobs in the history of America
to work on these high tech factories, which are all coming to America.
He's an idiot.
I don't know what else to say.
The screws, the robots, whatever you say.
Last thing, sorry, Mark Cuban said one thing the terrorists are going to
spur is smuggling a resurgence.
Mark Cuban said that and noted that maybe that's what the border
patrol money is used for.
So reaction.
Well, let's just talk about Apple.
Americans don't want to go into a factory and screw on little screws.
Americans don't even want to put on a hazmat suit and go to a regular factory.
This notion that Americans are dying to go back to an assembly line is just not true.
You can't get Americans to work on a construction site.
Do you think they're going to show up for assembly line work?
So let's talk specifically about Apple.
iPhone costs about $1,200 or $1,300. with the existing tariffs, they're going to $2,000. If we tried to produce them
in the US, they'd be $3,500.
Yeah, they'd be very expensive.
So first off, they're not coming back here. And all that's going to happen is the following.
Fewer people are going to buy fewer iPhones. It'll reduce Apple revenues by 30 to $40 billion,
say economists.
It trades at eight times revenue.
So you're going to wipe out a third of a trillion dollars.
You're going to have 401ks go down.
You're going to people be less confident buying things.
You're going to have Apple employees and shareholders
lose a lot of wealth.
You're going to have, I mean, you're in,
we're not even talking about the second tier effects.
And that is one, we are thrusting people
into the arms of China.
And two, assume it just goes tit for tat.
And let's stop talking.
We know tariffs are bad.
Let's assume that we reduce a billion dollars
of Samsung sales, right?
I'm trying to think of an analog to Apple
and Apple sales go down a billion dollars. of Samsung sales, right? I'm trying to think of an analog to Apple
and Apple sales go down a billion dollars.
Samsung trades at like 1.2 to two times revenues,
Apple trades at eight.
So you think, okay, it's bad,
but we each lose a billion dollars in revenue and sales
through prices or products that are less competitive
because they're more expensive.
No, we lose $8 billion in market cap. They lose too.
So the biggest beneficiary of global trade
over the last 30 or 40 years has been the US
because the products we export are high margin,
high value add manufactured products
or the second biggest manufacturer in the world.
But what we do is we take cheap oil from Canada,
we refine it, we take cheap products from other nations
in earth minerals and we turn them into very expensive
55 point margin Nvidia chips.
So Tesla, another example, Toyota,
really well run company, trades at 0.7 times revenue.
Tesla trades at eight times revenue. So for every billion dollars in reductions
in trade of Tesla, we lose 8 billion in market cap, they lose 77 million. So the echo effect here is
so dramatic. And even beyond that, even beyond that, you're going to see, in my view, over the next five years, a pretty serious destruction
in the value of our stock markets.
And it's for the following reasons.
The U.S. market trades at a P.E. multiple of 28
until Wednesday night.
Now it's down to 26.
Germany, so 22 or 23, Japan at 18, China at 14.
Now, why do our companies trade at a higher value
for the same earnings, the same profits
as companies in other nations?
It's because we have this umbrella called the US brand.
And it means a lot of things.
It means risk-aggressive capital.
It means entrepreneurship.
It means great universities, great IP.
It means immigration.
It means rule of law and consistency. We're seen as a consistent trading partner.
China doesn't have rule of law. They can put companies out of business right away. They can
disappear people. Germany doesn't have as much risk capital. They're not as aggressive.
The U.S. is losing or has lost two things. Rule of law, we've now decided
to basically ignore court orders.
We're doing one-offs and companies that make no sense.
We're deporting people to El Salvador for no reason at all.
In addition, we're no longer seen as consistent.
The epileptic sclerotic decisions of this guy.
So what are you gonna have?
You're gonna have a rerating of the SMP down
from 26 to maybe 15.
And here's the thing, all of our companies could continue to outperform the rest of
companies around the world and their stocks are still going to go down.
If you invested in Latin American stocks, it didn't matter how well the company did.
You cannot outrun multiple contraction, which is going to happen over the next five years.
So, and Sevyn, you point out correctly,
like, it's deciding on this one person
who has a wrong math and the wrong idea
between trade deficits and tariffs and the relationship.
Every single thing he's saying is actually wrong
and has this thing in his head
that everything has to equal out,
that if they buy this, we sell that,
like we have to sell exactly, like why don't they, and Stephen Miller, same thing,
why don't they buy American cars? Because Toyotas are better, you dumbass, and they make them here too.
Like, the stupidity is outranked only by the, as you were saying, the rule of law,
the lack of any consistency, the reliability of the
US.
One, what has to happen here?
What do you imagine is going to happen here?
Because there's now suddenly Jamie Dimon is speaking, Bill Ackman has suddenly found his
balls again and is saying something truthful, although he made sure he sucked up to Trump
in the beginning of his screed, which was about a nuclear winter and investing essentially,
or in the US economy.
What's your advice to people that are panicking right now
and trying to figure out what to do with their investments?
And then second, first, what do you think's gonna happen
and what's your advice for people
if it continues in this way?
I feel more confident answering the latter than the former.
I can't predict Donald Trump's actions.
I think he is so,
look, the only adult in the cabinet here that isn't on
unsecure phones and apps releasing
attack plans to the rest of the world
and who has any understanding of economics.
I've said this for a long time.
The adult in the room is the Dow,
the 10-year, and the NASDAQ And if the NASDAQ keeps going down, they're probably going
to have to respond. They're not going to be able to jazz hands their way out of
this. The argument they're making is the following, is that
sometimes the market doesn't represent the real economy. That's actually a
relatively good argument. The Dow Jones and NASDAQ are dangerous indicators
because they give a false signal of prosperity.
And a lot of people aren't impacted by the markets,
they're impacted by things like inflation.
The problem is if you were to take minimum wage of 25 bucks an hour,
or you were to increase taxes on corporations
to try and have some fiscal sanity,
that would take the markets down,
but that would be an investment that would be worth it.
This is just making products more expensive, making our products less
competitive overseas and convincing the rest of the world to reconfigure the
supply chain to not include American businesses or professionals.
That's just, that's just shooting yourself in the foot and then taking
your gun and putting it in your mouth.
So, but I have no idea what he's going to do.
I just don't get it.
I think if this gets much worse, he's probably going to do some
bullshit like, so for example, Jamie Diamond suggestion, that's even worse because
it's the uncertainty that hurts more than the tariffs we're going to do that.
We're going to pull another tick tock.
It just, for God's sakes, we'd be better off if he just came up with some sort of,
not this tariff level, but some sort of modest tariff and let people plan their
business, it's the uncertainty and the unpredictability. It's like being in a relationship
with someone who's bipolar, speaking for a friend, you don't know who you're waking up next to.
Also, it's incorrect. One of the people who they base the theories on has written a piece in their
time saying, they got this totally wrong and they did the math wrong and it's a quarter. What they should put here is a quarter of what I said.
You know, I said a quarter of what they're doing here, which means
they don't know how to do math.
That's the part that's frightening.
They actually don't understand what they've done.
Like pushing the nuclear button.
What does this do kind of thing?
I don't, that makes me more nervous.
The key to building a business.
The team of the best players wins.
Greatness is in the agency of other.
Do you know these ass clowns?
Do you know where they came up with the formula for their tariffs?
If you type in tariff, give me a tariff that levels up our trade debt,
which is a stupid, you want a trade deficit.
But if you ask the question, put in place tariffs against every nation based on bringing
equilibrium to our trade deficit.
If you put it into chat GPT, you come back with the exact formulas they came up with.
Their economic advisors are fucking turning to chat GPT.
Let's go to your second question, what to do as an investor.
This is what you do. Nothing.
And that is whether it's, whether it's you getting a divorce, whether you lose
someone you love, whether you get fired, you do not make big life decisions in
the midst of emotional trauma because you are not thinking straight.
In addition, tomorrow morning, he could announce, say you sell all your stocks
today, he could announce tomorrow morning that he's removing all tariffs.
He's capable of doing that.
And the markets could rip up 2,000 points.
And then what happens to your mental health when you're sold at the bottom?
Probably the worst piece of financial advice given to media was when Jim Kramer,
who I don't think he's malice, I think he's a good guy trying to do the right thing.
He told investors at the very bottom, if you don't like this volatility,
you should sell your stocks.
Within 14 months, we had recovered all of our losses.
If you sold, when Jim Cramer suggested
you might wanna think about getting out,
you saw your net worth cut in half.
And even more damaging to your financial wellbeing
was your mental wellbeing,
because you saw everybody else get to back
exactly where they were and you were the idiot
that sold at the bottom.
This is what I'm doing.
Since Q4 of last year, I just look at the S&P,
it's trading at, Apple's trading at 38 times earnings
and it's not growing.
I have been selling down US stocks
and I have been diversifying into Latin American and European and some Asian stocks.
Because if you're just invested in the US, you're not diversified.
And see above a rerating down a contraction in the multiple of US stocks.
You may want to think about maybe taking some tax losses, harvesting some tax losses, talk to people, talk to people, have a kitchen cabinet.
Don't do anything rash, you're out of emotion.
But I think if you were to diversify into European stocks,
which by the way, you're not buying low and buying,
selling low and buying high,
European stocks have been hit hard too,
you're a little bit more diversified,
which I think is a vastly underrated strategy.
DEI that stock put, all right, we're going to go to a quick break.
And when we come back, we're going to talk a little bit more about the losers and
some winners from the Trump tariffs.
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Scott we're back. The number of sectors took a beating from Trump's tariff and it's been
particularly rough for big tech. In two days after the tariffs were announced, Apple dropped 16 percent, Metafel 14, Amazon
was down 13.
Nice job, boys, of going to the inauguration.
That really paid off for you.
The two-day drop wiped out $31 billion in net worth for Elon Musk at $23 billion for
Jeff Bezos and $27 billion for Mark Zuckerberg.
I feel so bad for them.
How's the investment in Trump paying off now?
As a reporter of the week, a number of these folks want to go to Mar-a-Lago
to talk to him about this. I don't know if they've done it yet, but this was the
rumor that was going down that they are really, and also bankers.
Elon doesn't seem to agree with Trump on tariffs.
And of course, speaking his mind, he said on Saturday that he hoped Europe and the
U.S. would have affected him to zero tariff situation, effectively creating a
free trade zone. Totally opposite. He also had a couple of posts calling
out Peter Navarro, Trump's trade advisor, who is such an idiot. This I agree with Ilan on.
All this, as EU regulators are reportedly preparing to inflict a billion dollar fine against
X for breaking a law to combat illicit content and disinformation. That's separate.
This is interesting that he's doing that.
The person that's looking more like a genius than ever,
Warren Buffett, he didn't kiss the Trump wing.
He's been growing his cash pile in the last year.
He's currently sitting around $334 billion.
Never doubt Warren Buffett, I guess.
And then also a few losers, fast fashion brands,
Shein, a Scott favorite, and Tmoo.
Trump has closed the loophole that gave the tariff exemption on goods shipped from China
valued under $800.
I think it's called de minimis or something like that.
It no longer applies as of May 2nd.
A lot of people didn't like this loophole.
Without the loophole, prices and orders could jump as much as 30%.
Amazon might also take a hit because they ran into the low-cost storefront powered
by cheap Chinese goods.
One of the things that was really strange was Scott Besson talking about how
Americans shouldn't buy cheap stuff anymore.
Too bad.
And that's too bad for you, Scott, because you could afford cashmere all the time.
But that was another message they were sending out as we should get off our,
our cheap goods. So no longer shop at Walmart, the biggest employer in the US.
Yeah, right, whatever. Like none of your fucking business dudes. So talk a little bit about tech
because also the last thing is tech, it sells a lot of services into Europe and cloud computing,
also so do the McKinsey's of the world.. That's where we have a trade surplus in services, from what I understand.
Talk a little bit about the why it's impacting tech and you see the real cracks,
when the Elans and the others, Bezos is probably apoplectic,
Trump and Cook is apoplectic, I'm sure.
Warren Buffett looks, he's 105 years old, and he's once again the goat.
It's just, okay, so let's look at Europe versus the US.
We export Nvidia chips.
Nvidia trades at 24 times revenues.
For every billion dollars, they sell an additional chips to other markets.
Institutional investors and employees of Nvidia register a $24 billion gain.
California gets enormous tax revenue from the incremental gains of shareholder value. When
Mercedes exports Mercedes in the United States, they trade at.23. If they lose a billion dollars
in business, they lose $23 million in market cap.
$23 million versus $24 billion in lost market cap.
We have taken global trade has been great for the world.
It's been the world more prosperous.
And to be clear, we haven't done a good job of protecting the people who get hurt.
Some people get hurt.
There are certain industries.
South Korea has done a good job of protecting nascent industries strategic to them with tariffs. Tariffs can be used. These blanket
tariffs, or let me put it this way, one of the greatest increases in global prosperity over the
last 50 years, it would be hard pressed. You might think, well, it's the world order where democracies
are bound together under the umbrella of US prosperity and NATO and military might. We have kept the peace. Wars are very destructive to
economics. But at the top of the list would probably be global trade. Find out what you
can produce best at the lowest price and trade with someone who's really good at producing
something else. And you both get better products at a lower price and you have a greater quality of life. So there is, it's not only reduces the prosperity
of the world, it massively, there's no nation
that benefits more from global trade
because our products are high margin, high value add.
When Canada ships energy into the US,
we then add value to it. We refine it.
We turn it into higher grade petroleum,
and we sell it at triple the price to other people.
People, we are in the business of high value add,
high margin, rule of law, IP driven,
that creates so much revenue and shareholder value.
What about this argument that we're going to bring domestic manufacturing back here?
And everyone, even the crazy stations are like, that's going to take 10 years.
And they're not going to do it.
It'll never happen.
It'll never happen.
It'll never happen.
And first off, we're not just a taco truck with masseuses.
We're the second largest manufacturer in the world.
But we manufacture AI chips.
We manufacture really high value add products that have decent margins.
We have purposely outsourced low,
low value add, low margin,
low shareholder value products and American consumers, I'm sorry,
American workers don't want to go back into factories.
98% of businesses that sell into global trade are small and medium
sized businesses.
40 million jobs are related to or depend on global trade.
And people say, well, 40 million or 355, that's not that bad.
Only 150 million people in the U.S. work.
So the notion we're going to bring back, we's not that bad. Only 150 million people in the US work.
So the notion we're gonna bring back,
we don't want to bring back.
I mean, you need what you need are great,
great middle-class well-paying jobs, vocational.
You need more people trained to install
energy efficient HVAC heaters at 30 bucks an hour.
We need that.
But there is not a line to go work on a factory floor
in Lansing, Michigan.
This isn't what people do.
Try and renovate a house and see how much people
want to actually build a home that were born here.
They don't.
Yes, who wants to do that, immigrants?
It's exactly right.
So this notion that everyone's lining up to go work
at a factory job in the Midwest on an assembly line.
It's just, it's such a, it's like an 80s guy idea
of the world, like seriously.
And I get, you know, I do actually get the arguments
about, you know, sort of hollowing out
American manufacturing by doing cheaper goods abroad
and going too far with free trade and not retraining people.
There's great arguments to be made about trying to figure out
new ways for people to have jobs.
But this way, the idea,
we're going to bring back factor.
Every time Howard Leutnant gets on the air,
I'm like, are you living in a different century? Like it's just, it's been stuck in Trump's head
for 40 years.
And what's astonishing is the Republicans are like,
let's listen to the president.
Let's not.
He knows, he's playing 40 chess.
We just don't get it.
No, that's not what's happening.
He's stuck in the eighties.
He's stuck in some era that no longer exists
and wouldn't it be great if the women
didn't vote and there was no such thing as me too and I could do whatever I felt like.
This is a different era. And what sort of amazes me is that it hasn't gotten through
to that the Republicans are still sticking with this. It's such a test of MAGA. I've
never seen anything.
This has got to be the ultimate cult test.
Will you take the Kool-Aid?
Will you actually drink the Kool-Aid kind of thing?
We're so narcissistic, we refuse to acknowledge
that the rest of the world is a pretty interesting
case study in history.
And the 50s and 60s,
Latin America embraced protectionist policies. Their economy did not grow.
They opened up their economy boomed.
They, the last time we had tariffs like this, they weren't even as big as this
was in 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.
Those tariffs weren't as big as these.
And what was, what was the impact there?
It widened, it worsened the great impression
instead of boosting the economy and creating jobs.
By 1933, real US GDP had dropped by a third.
Do you know what would happen in the US
if GDP dropped by a third?
And the unemployment rate, which is at 4%, hit 25%.
I was really disappointed.
Really disappointed.
I watched all the Sunday morning programs.
Margaret Brennan did a good job.
The rest of them clearly didn't take an economics class
because they couldn't ask a basic question.
Name a country, there are 159 countries,
there are two centuries of economic,
modern economic history.
Name a country where this level of tariffs has worked.
It hasn't.
It hasn't. It hasn't. It hasn't.
It backfires.
It's the ultimate own goal.
The fact that they're going, let's wait and see.
Like, no, let's not wait and see what happens
when we inject bleach into our veins.
Let's not wait and see.
We have to move on.
But because, you know, one of the things
that I want to talk about is this is a gift to China.
This is, China needed a way out of their economic doldrums,
we've just handed them the key.
Like, here you go.
Let me just ask you one question.
I mean, this is a sincere question.
If they can have a conspiracy that in the basement,
which doesn't exist of a pizza joint,
Hillary Clinton is drinking the blood
of children they're sacrificing,
I can go semi-conspiracy theory.
Okay, go ahead, let's hear it.
Putin and Xi have each put $10 billion
into the Trump coin, or they've committed to it. You're going to be the wealthiest man
in history, but you need to do the following things. You need to withdraw from Ukraine.
You need to fragment the strongest US Western democracy alliances in history to give us
license to do whatever the fuck we want. So he's the ultimate man-turing candidate, is what you're saying.
And we need you to thrust the biggest—China's all about money—we need you to thrust the
biggest trading partners into arms. We need you to get Japan and South Korea to start
talking to us again. If it was not Trump vans—this is the question—if it was not Trump vans,
but it was Putin, Xi, what would be any fucking different than what has happened over the last two months?
Well, it seems too complicated.
I just think he's stupid.
We should have hired the smart.
That's a solid plan B.
We should have hired the smart woman of color.
But that's my question.
If Putin and Xi had been president and vice president, what would they have done differently?
I don't know. I agree.
I think he's just so stupid.
I just stupidity takes the cake here and he's stupid and he's
addled and he's got to go.
He's got to go. I don't know what else to say.
Let's surrender Ukraine and side with our enemies.
Let's pretend you won the Cold War even though we won it.
Except he has been talking about this for 40 years.
It's been like a hair up his ass for 40 years. Like he has been talking about this for 40 years. It's been like a hair up his ass for 40 years.
Like he has been talking about this.
So I feel like he's now like,
I'm gonna do this finally and see what happens.
I'm pushing this button and I'm seeing what's happening.
I don't think it's a conspiracy.
I'm gonna ask Chachi BT.
All right, let's go on a quick break.
When we come back speaking of China,
the TikTok deadline gets postponed yet again.
Now streaming on Paramount Plus.
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And if you cross my family, well, you'd better pray.
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Last week, John Lovett joined me
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If you enjoyed that, you'll love his podcast,
Love It or Leave It.
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to witness the chaos in person.
It's been a rough week for your retirement account,
your friend who imports products from China
for the TikTok shop, and also Hooters.
Hooters has now filed for bankruptcy, but they say they are not going anywhere.
Last year, Hooters closed dozens of restaurants
because of rising food and labor costs.
Hooters is shifting away from its iconic
skimpy waitress outfits and bikini days,
instead opting for a family-friendly vibe.
They're vowing to improve the food and ingredients,
and staff is now being urged to greet women first when groups arrive.
Maybe in April of 2025 you're thinking, good riddance? Does the world still really need
this chain of...breast-er-onts? But then we were surprised to learn of who exactly was
mourning the potential loss of Hooters. Straight guys who like chicken, sure, but also a bunch of gay guys who like chicken.
Check out Today Explained to find out why exactly that is, won't you?
Scott, we're back. President Trump delayed the ban on TikTok for 75 days for a second time.
How ridiculous. A steal for the sale was reportedly
closed until Trump made his tariffs announcement, causing China to pull out of the negotiations,
obviously. Oracle, Blackstone, and Andreessen, who are with all friends of Donald Trump,
were reportedly involved. Trump has previously suggested he could lessen tariffs on China
exchange for a deal. I'm sure China is just thrilled to hear that. I don't know why China
would do anything. Like maybe they will if they want that. I don't know why China would do anything.
Like maybe they will if they want to.
I don't know why you would do anything.
So let's do a very brief thing about this because
I think it's just going to sit there in limbo and just bump along, right?
I know there's no deal here.
They're going to try to bring it under 20 percent.
I think that's the amount,
the ownership of China,
for Chinese, the Chinese government
and for Chinese investors.
Yeah.
You go first here.
What are your thoughts, Karen?
I don't know what's going to happen here.
It feels like a story from the 1980s too.
I mean, I think eventually it'll have some convoluted thing
that's not going to make a difference
or keep us safer in any way.
I think they need to make the case of why it is dangerous.
I sort of like the law,
but I didn't feel I made their case.
At the same time, I'm absolutely certain the Chinese are manipulating it.
I don't even feel like that.
I think it's eventually a dwindling company.
Over time, if it's not focusing on this product,
I'm in this new zone, Scott, of like,
the reason things fail is because products suck.
Well, the 45 to 95 was the brand era,
but digital unlock around product is the new bomb again.
It sounds boring, but it's product.
I'm like, if Tesla made great cars,
people would still buy them even though he's a toad.
Yeah, they don't advertise.
Right, I really do think that.
I'm thinking myself, I use Amazon,
I don't wanna use it
because I'm really irritated by Jeff Bezos,
but it's a great product and it's really hard.
Like I think if it gets the call off of-
How do you think I feel using Starlink
to call you on FaceTime?
I know, I know.
I think it's just really,
I think the problems that this will suffer as a product
because of all this mishigosh.
And so I don't feel kids talk.
I mean, they're going to move on to the next thing.
That's what I feel like.
And eventually they'll come up with some convoluted way where Mark Andreessen gets
even richer than he already is and more toxic.
And it won't make any sense and it won't protect Americans better.
And China will continue to dump.
I mean, just to me, all of this has been a gimme to China.
Just one big gimme to
a government that does not want us to dominate.
As it relates to TikTok,
I just don't think we would ever let
CBS, NBC, and ABC be owned by the Kremlin in the 60s.
I think it's fucking insane to have TikTok.
I think we're raising a generation of
civic, military,
and business leaders who hate America.
50% of people our age feel good about America,
one in 10 young people.
And I might not, I might even be wrong,
but just from a trade symmetry standpoint,
there are no media companies in China
and we can't afford to have this.
The average 14 year old boy in America is spending 17 hours
on a media platform controlled by the CCP.
It's just not a good idea. So it should be banned.
Now, the second thing, and this goes back to the notion that you can't outrun multiple contraction,
which we're about to incur the mother of all multiple contraction,
is remember when Trump hated TikTok and then remember when President Biden had a bipartisan law passed and none of it fucking
means anything anymore. Because if the one of the largest donors of the Trump campaign,
Jeffrey Ashes also happens to be an investor in TikTok and a bunch of crypto bros and Silicon
Valley bros are also investors, he can do all this bullshit. I'm in, I'm out. I'm your girlfriend.
I'm not your girlfriend. I want to break up.
I don't want to break.
Why would anyone take us seriously?
Why would, China is like, yeah, fine.
China's not going to back down to the US.
Unless they can figure out a way,
unless they have all sorts of assets,
which is Latin for spies within Oracle,
and they feel like they can keep the asset
in the US as an espionage and propaganda tool,
and have their cake and eat it too,
they're just gonna play slowball
because this guy will change his mind next week.
Or maybe General Lanik partners with Sequoia Capital,
who would have sex with their sisters for a nickel,
will put pressure on Trump and offer him.
What are you on now? I knew you'd bring in White Lotus, but go ahead.
Well, that's unfair. They'd fuck their mothers for a nickel.
I think that's more accurate.
Anyways, these folks now run the White House.
TikTok just represents of represents,
one, a national security threat
that we just don't take seriously
because our kids like it and we don't understand it.
And I remember when you took me to the White House,
I remember thinking, and they were like,
oh, we're not on TikTok.
I'm like, that's a bad idea.
You don't realize what's going on.
You don't see what's happening to our kids here.
Your kid can see a beheading and then a dance video and then something showing,
you know, viewpoints on Hamas and Israel or viewpoints, a bunch of people like,
I'm even part of it.
I see my angriest videos get the most play on TikTok.
They get dialed up and that's not just TikTok.
It's everything else, but why on earth,
why on earth would we allow missiles to be planted
on an island, Cuba, 60 miles offshore, the US coast,
even if they claim they will never use them against us?
Like, no, we're just not gonna put up with that.
And then again, it's the inconsistency
that's gonna take our prosperity now.
Does it matter because we're giving them advantage
in this tariff thing.
Now we've given them an even bigger thing.
Oh, biggest winner here.
Winner. Winner winner chicken dinner. China.
China, China. And they were-
Hands down.
Really losing.
They were really losing.
Biggest winner out of all this. Hands down.
All of a sudden Canada is like,
Chinese are minding up all the real estate in Vancouver.
This is what every China,
every Chinese diplomat and businessman is working.
I've done a lot of business in China.
They're all working overtime
and they're going to European capitals.
They're going everywhere and saying,
they may say, you may not agree with us,
but you know what, we're good partners.
Lifeline for China.
This has been such a gift to China.
Anyway, that's our feelings.
It's an unbelievable gift to Vice President Xi.
All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails.
Okay, Scott, we're going to do wins and fails. I think I shall go first. I think when I really enjoy, I love a protest. I thought these hands-off protests were, every city was full.
I loved seeing them in Turkey.
I love people turning out.
I don't know if they work or not,
but DC and New York, 100,000 attendees each.
Amanda went down, I did not.
And average people, it was not like
the professional protesters that you might see.
Themes were administration's attacks on Social Security, the layoffs, deportations, Elon Musk, of course.
I love the signs. They make me laugh.
IKEA has better cabinets, which, it's funny, they really do.
Wisconsin hates Elon so much, it could be one of his kids.
Abort unwanted presidencies. We're all the couch now. Trump, of course, spent unwanted presidencies.
We're all the couch now.
Trump, of course, spent the weekend golfing.
I mean, just the visuals couldn't be any better.
And I kind of just like it.
It gets people in a bold and I don't know if protests matter, but this one had a had
a real momentum momentum field, which is nice.
And we'll see if that matters or not.
For the fail, so obvious, 60 Minutes, which is, you know,
people talk about the decline of traditional media.
People who do real reporting, really, we owe them a debt of gratitude.
They did a story on Sunday on Venezuelan migrants who got deported to prison in El Salvador
and their reporting found no criminal records for 75% of those migrants.
These people were taken off the street,
many of them were legally here, and put in a prison.
It's literally like a movie.
It's a movie, it feels like a movie.
This is so cruel, and the people who are doing this
to people and putting people in prison
without any criminal record
and sending them to another country they're not even from,
I hope they go to jail themselves at some point
and pretending they can't take them back.
This is grotesque in every single way, grotesque.
So it's like such an embarrassment
and people aren't paying attention
because of all this stuff about the tariffs
and the stock market, but boy,
what a human rights disaster for us as our country.
We have no ability to say we're a good people
for doing things like that.
I like both of those.
I'm an agist.
I think all of these old people need to go away.
I think that Biden's inability and the people around him,
their lack of backbone to acknowledge that biology always wins is
if we've decided the prefrontal cortex of a 34-year-old is too immature to have that
person have access to nuclear weapons and for God's sakes an 80-year-old shouldn't
have their finger on the button.
And my win is the market is responding. Democrat, I think it's
Saikat Chakrabarti, who was the comms director for 35-year-old former boss,
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has decided that he's going to challenge Rep. Nancy
Pelosi, or he did challenge her.
For Chakrabarti, 39-year-old software engineer
turned political operative.
I like seeing young people rising to the challenge.
And Los Angeles 37-year-old Jake Rakhov
announced last week that he was running
for the seat of his former boss, rep Brad Sherman,
who's 70.
Brad, Representative Sherman, you served your country well.
Now collect a gold watch and go play fucking golf.
You're too old.
And Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrah, 38,
launched a bid for a state's open US Senate seat
by talking about her experiences as a millennial.
I mean, there are young people stepping up here.
I saw her at MSNBC.
I was on Jen Psaki's show on Sunday, and I ran into Mallory.
She's really impressive.
Very impressive.
And in Illinois, Kat Abugazala,
that's the problem with all these young names.
Oh no.
These names are too fucking complicated.
Change your name to like Smith.
And we're out.
Change your name to Smith.
You'll get more votes.
You'll get more votes.
Anyways, Kat, I like that.
That's what I'm gonna call Rep Cat.
Rep Jan Tchaikovsky.
Oh my God, really, you're not doing this.
But go ahead.
Who is, oh wait, she's running for the seat
of Rep Jan Tchaikovsky, who is 80.
Go home.
She's an influencer, yeah.
Go home, Rep Jan Tchaikovsky, 80.
Good congressperson, let me say.
For many years. Go home. Go ahead, yeah, I agree.ikovsky. 80, go home. Good congressperson, let me say, for many years.
I'll go ahead.
Yeah, I agree.
Okay, so.
I'm outta here in 10 years.
Senator Schumer, Senator Schumer, you're 74.
Someone this weekend offered me 10 million bucks
if I put in 10 million to run for president.
I'm like, I'm too fuckin' old.
You need someone who's gonna work 19.
Bill Clinton slept five hours a night for eight years.
All right, okay, so fail.
Because he was in his 40s.
Old people, old people.
Okay, we need, my win is young people
stepping up to the plate.
If you're, and I always like to put axes by the word,
if you're a young, a young, moderate,
running against someone who just is only there
because they're a fucking incumbent, email me, scatstern.nyu and I'm in.
I'm in for the maximum campaign contribution.
I'm voting for youth and new ideas and vigor.
Okay, my fail is the following.
On Thursday and Friday, I lost,
I don't know, somewhere between six and eight million dollars.
I got some of it back because I'd shorted AI stocks, so I probably lost four to five million bucks.
That's the bad news. The good news is I am so blessed and privileged because of the
underpinnings of an America that offers prosperity, offers opportunities to the children
of single immigrant mothers who live and die to secretary, rule of law, great entrepreneurial culture. It really
doesn't matter. I'm fine. I know it matters to a lot of people. I'm knowing
flexing and bragging about my wealth, but it does have a point. My disappointment
is that, okay, we now live in a nation where we've decided to side with autocrats,
not democracies pushing back on autocrats. We now live in a nation where it's possible
that you can go to jail if you don't narc on someone who is planning to get an abortion.
We live in a country where it is feasible, where a 14-year-old
who is raped has to carry her child to term. We live in a country where a woman could die
of sepsis in an emergency room parking lot because she's bleeding out because the medical
professionals are too scared to perform a necessary abortion.
We live in a country where we now have a president who's opened a Swiss banking account where
anyone can put money in in exchange for political favors and not have to disclose it.
That is the country we are in.
And here's what money has done.
You left out law firms, but go ahead.
And we can intimidate law firms into agreeing, into agreeing not to represent the president's adversaries.
I mean, that's the whole point of the,
that's the whole fucking point of our legal system.
Paul Weiss, go fuck yourself.
Jesus Christ.
Don't call yourself, you should never call yourself
an American law firm.
Your headquarters is fucking Moscow meets Mar-a-Lago.
What cowards?
And by the way, guest speaker, Bob Iger.
That's the country we're in.
And where do people turn up?
Where do people decide, that's it.
We have to go to Mar-a-Lago
is when the markets are down 10%.
Well, guess what?
That's about number 30 on my fucking list
of what terrible things have happened to this country.
So look, I'll take it, I'll take it.
But when it's all about the markets
and not about people's rights, not about humanity,
not about coarseness and cruelty,
not about the whole point of a constitution,
the whole point of a democracy is you protect the lower 50. You and I are going to be just fine.
And I understand your concerns about your family. I think those are real concerns.
The majority of people in the top 1% were going to be fine. The whole point of a constitution
and a democracy is you have to protect the bottom 50.
And what is all of a sudden the red line?
The NASDAQ is down.
That's what has people riled.
That's the red line.
That's the red line.
Right? That's the red line.
Yep, yep.
Oh, we're- All right.
We're okay with murderous autocrats
and 14 year olds carrying babies to term.
But if the NASDAQ goes down, that's too much.
You know what?
On Thursday and Friday, the market's going down.
I could give a flying fuck.
I'll go, I'll take the markets down another 10%.
Start protecting the lower 50.
I love this, Scott.
The lesbian from San Francisco, Scott Gallagher, I give you people.
All right. We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind.
Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT.
I love your verb, Scott. Elsewhere in the Scott and Kara universe, this week I spoke with Jeff Lawson, owner of The Onion.
Oh, what a great guy this guy is in terms of what he's done there.
Let's listen to a clip.
We have worked to create an environment where people will come to defend us in a way that
they don't necessarily come to defend the New York Times. Because it's believed that
New York Times can defend itself. It's a big organization. The little old onion, when you
go after satire, and it shows just how small, I'm going to make a penis joke, just how small
your penis is when you come after a satire.
I think people rise up and they say, that's enough.
Like we're gonna defend this little thing called the onion
because satire is highly protected speech
and the onion is a beloved brand and a beloved publication.
Anyway, really interesting guy.
He's trying to keep it, I love the onion.
I think they do a great job
and he's sort of saved it in a lot of ways.
Anyway, his name's Jeff Lawson.
It was great and he loves Scott Galleri.
So, he had to make one penis joke.
I love the onion.
Yeah, I know.
The hard part though is occasionally I read the onion, I'm like, is that actual news today?
I know.
It's actual.
They're doing all kinds of cool things and he really did save it in a lot of ways.
Just a small little contribution.
He's a billionaire too.
He was at Twilio.
He had a big activist investor thing sort of toss him out, but really interesting guy.
Okay, that's the show.
Thanks for listening to Pivot.
Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
We'll be back on Friday.
Scott, read us out and be very indignant.
I like it.
Today's show is produced by Leronea and Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin and Kate Gallagher.
Ernie Ertot, the interviewer for this episode, Julian Villard edited the video.
Thanks also to Jouberos, Miss Severo and Dan Choulon.
Nishant Kherwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio.
Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts.
Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media.
You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod.
We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.
Don't you often see someone and think,
what's their story? What's their life?
How did he end up on a park bench without shoes,
feeding pigeons and speaking to himself?
University of Chicago.
I was on a college tour, Kara.