Pivot - Netflix’s Reed Hastings has a huge quarter, Facebook makes big investment in India, Bezos takes the reins at Amazon

Episode Date: April 24, 2020

Kara and Scott talk about Netflix's biggest quarter yet. The company doubled its projections for how many new subscribers it would acquire. They discuss Facebook's single biggest company investment into Jio – an Indian service provider. Meanwhile, Jeff Bezos is back at the wheel at Amazon. Kara and Scott talk about Jeff Bezos' most recent letter to shareholders, as Amazon get an even bigger hold on US commerce. A listener asks if face-masks will become high fashion and if that can save more retailers from going bankrupt. Plus Scott gives us some Algebra of Happiness advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Kim Jong Unwell.

Get it? I'm Unwell. Where's Kim Jong Un? That's what I'm... Where is Snuffleupagus? Brain dead. His sister's running the show. Did you remember how she peaked out when there were all those talks going on with Trump, those idiot talks? So I think there's a real chance here,

but if she's single, I'm available. I'd like to be the first lady of North Korea. So I would buy a lot of shoes and I'd fire rockets off all the fucking time. I'd be like, where's my rocket? You would be an excellent first lady. Wouldn't I be the great first lady of North Korea? Sadly, you would. Sadly, you would. I think that would be... That would make for really... I would definitely get the reality TV show I've been looking for.

You'd be like Imelda Marcos, I think, right? That's where you're going. That's the genre of first ladyhood. I'd be the salsa to Imelda's chip. I'd be... I would be... She's still around, I think. I don't think she's dead.

Imelda? Yes, I think she is. Yeah. I believe be, oh my. She's still around, I think. I don't think she's dead. Yes, I think she is. Yeah. I believe she's not dead yet. Have you seen my closet? I think I live with her. I can't get over

women's fascinations with shoes. I just don't get it. It's like cocaine. Women and cocaine and women and shoes. My son, he's insane.

My son changes his shoes every 15 minutes. His sneakers, he's such a sneaker. Yeah, but that's an investment. That's a real asset. No,

no, it's the exact same thing and he has to walk slowly so he doesn't crease them. That's a real asset. No, no, no. It's the exact same thing. And he has to walk slowly so he doesn't crease them. That's the whole thing. He has to walk slowly? Yes. And then he wears the thing inside so it doesn't crease. So literally, it's like I'm walking with a woman in high heels or a little old man.

It's like, I'm like, he's 10, 20 feet behind me at all times. That's hilarious. The strangest thing. So they don't crease. Nothing can get on them. Now he's got t-shirts, a vape t-shirt that you can't get any food on. It's, yeah, anyway. Is this the younger one or the older one? Yes, the younger one, the older one. He could care less. He could care less. Anyway, let's get into things. So I'm thinking of applying for a PPP loan, Scott. Well, why not?

Everyone else does. I wrote about this saying startups shouldn't do it. And what happened? Axios picked one up. Now, I want to know what you think about this because a couple of media companies did. Most of them were newspapers, local newspapers. But this is Axios, which is a startup-funded company, very much, you know, competitor of Vox. But Vox did not take PPP loans. What is your thinking? And also, you're heavy breathing, by the way, today, just so you know. Oh, am I? It's because we're on video and I can see you, sweetheart. Stop it. What do you think about the PPP loans? Am I heavy breathing? Do I have chest pain? Oh my God, the virus is finally here. Listen to me. Don't joke about things like that. Anyway, I know, I know. PPP loans. What do you think about media companies saying,

especially startups? I wrote a whole entire column about this. What is your feeling? Axios is a perfect example. I know a lot of the investors at Axios, and they're civic-minded people who are interested in journalism, and they're also ridiculously fucking rich. And if they weren't taking this money, they would have to dig into their own pockets and fund what is, I think, a great emerging media company. And you know what? They would. So all this is, all PPP in the case of Axios and probably- This is payroll protection plan. But again, all we're doing as we do with every large government action is we're flattening the curve for the rich in this country.

And there's this cartoon of the single mom who's a cupcake bakery owner. The reality is some of the wealthiest people in America are entrepreneurs and owners of small business. And we are, this is what we're doing. And Barry Ritholtz wrote a great couple articles on the unintended consequences of bailouts. So his brief history of bailouts, Lockheed, Martin almost went out of business. We came in with $250 million. That probably created the military-industrial complex where you didn't have to manage costs. We then went in and bailed out Chrysler. What did that do? If we hadn't have bailed them out, yes, the Japanese would have taken more share, but it probably would have scared the living shit out of the remaining big two, GM and Ford, who probably would have come to a more economically responsible agreement with their unions. They

probably would have pivoted to smaller cars faster. We probably would have had less air pollution. And by the way, two of the three went out of business just 20 years later. And then let's go to long-term capital management, where a company managed to turn $5 billion in equity capital, levered up 27-fold, and then almost bring down, you know, they said it almost brought down the global economy. No, it didn't. It almost brought down a bunch of counterparties. If we hadn't bailed their asses out. Yeah.

Now, what happens when you bail out a company that levers up 27 fold in financial services? What does that lead to, Kara? A quick, quick, quick. Bad behavior. Exactly. Moral hazard. And what do you know? The subprime crisis.

And by the way, who was the biggest counterparty that got bailed out? Banks. The bailout of long-term capital management? Bear Stearns, who just went bankrupt with leverage in 2008. Listen, we're talking about these startup companies. Again, I wrote a piece about saying startup companies shouldn't take this money. And Axios is a startup company, just like Vox. And taking this money, they do have investors.

Even if they have to get crammed down, they should be focused on their investors. It's quite controversial. I don't know about regular small newspapers because they don't have, like a lot of these companies that are supposed to get this money don't have VC investors with piles of money. And I'm okay with small newspapers or local newspapers getting it, but startups- They should go out of business, Kara. The reason why- Oh, small newspapers. Okay, all right, okay. I'm not so, no, I'm not so much on that. But the reason why America hires people faster than any nation in the world is because we can fire them faster. And we're creating – this is what we're doing.

We're creating one of the strongest entities in the world, and that's U.S. small business. And we're taking them from red-tailed pit mixes. By the way, the red-tailed pit is a vastly underrated dog. Very friendly, good dog. Move along. We're turning small businesses into a bunch of bitch-ass poodles who mommy government knits sweaters for who are ultimately going to go out of business anyways.

Here's what you need to do. All right, quickly, because we've got to get to the big story. Go ahead. We need small businesses that are soldiers, not brittle. And when you tell them they can't fire them, those people are going to be fired anyways, or most of them are, because these companies aren't in fighting shape. And the majority of people benefiting from, again, this flattening of the curve of rich people in the form of a $600 billion bailout are wealthy investors and owners of small businesses. Yes, $100 billion of this will make it to the right

people. The other $500 billion, do you realize the size of this? $600 billion. Here's an idea, Kara. Here's an idea. Let's take half of U.S. households, the bottom medium. That's 50 million households. Let's give them each $12,000 because it's not protection these companies need. These small businesses need demand. They need business. So let's put $12,000 tax-free. It's like nine or 11 months at the lower median household income. That would be incredible. I would agree. Hello, you are so Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez these days. I don't know what to say. Let me just say, this is the kind of thing she's talking about. Protect people, not jobs.

Yes, exactly. Now listen, the Senate just approved $484 billion more. Oh my God. Whether it's going to get to the right places. And you're right. I think you're right. And I think Axios made its argument, but they have an availability of access. And if the investors don't believe in them, that's the way it goes. Same thing if it was Vox, same thing if anything like that. It's a tough world out there.

I agree with you on that. But I do think like delis and stuff like that don't have, like that are good businesses do need just a tiny little bit of a break. This is the psychology everyone goes through. I'm a small business owner and I do empathize with them. I mean like, oh, it's helicopter money. It's free money. If I don't take it, my other competitors go out ahead of me. So I have my CFO look into it, quarter million dollars, file, get it in 48 hours. That is very tempting. And then I recognize, okay, as indignant as I am, do I really want to be the guy taking government money?

And also, at the end of the day, all of my investors are really successful, wealthy people. They could give you money. Yeah. Or not. Or they lose the money they put in you. Right. If we get in trouble, we decide, all right,

we all lose money and we go on to do our next thing. Or they decide to reach into their pockets and put more money in. And trust me, these guys have those pockets and so do most of these businesses. This is going to be, what just happened with Shake Shack and Axios, you know, unfortunately, they're quite frankly, they're the poster children for this. Times that by 10,000. A gazillion, yes. A hedge fund with eight people that's investing in distress credit and the guy is worth a half a million dollars,

you're going to find out that he got PPP. Yeah. You are going to see so... Free ice cream, Scott. I'm going to move us along. Speaking of... Sorry. That's all right.

I like your rant. Do not move along Kim Jong-un's sister. Listen to me, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. First lady of north korea while we are in lockdown netflix has had the best quarter in its history which is probably no surprise in an earnings report on tuesday they said netflix now has 183 million customers around the world back in january before the western world was quarantined netflix said it experienced expected to add 7 million new subscribers in the first three months

of 2020. It actually added about 16 million. That's more than double. Disney isn't reporting earnings until the beginning of May, but Disney did announce earlier this month they had more than 50 million subscribers for the streaming platform Disney Plus in just five months after its launch. HBO Max from Time Warner is set to launch in May. I mean, what? Netflix acknowledged that the pace of the growth was short-lived and said they expect membership growth to decelerate as home confinement ends, which we hope is soon. So, Scott, and by the way, Reed Hastings is hysterical in his bedroom and actually has been responding to people about broadcasting from this weird bedroom he has.

So, Scott, how do you manage this momentum while it lasts, while they have it? What would you do? And they also created just, you know, a $100 million fund to help producers, crews, and filmmakers cope. It extended beyond the U.S., giving way money to film-related organizations in Britain, Italy, Brazil, Mexico, and the Netherlands. What does this list tell you about their global partnerships and reliance on the global creator system? And what does it mean in the competitive landscape? I got to say, Reed Hastings is flawless as far as I can tell in everything. So including his weird little bedroom. So tell me, tell me what you think of this and what do you think is going to happen? Well, it's not, it's not surprising, right?

And, but it's okay. So Netflix, I believe is up 28% year to date. So they're obviously accelerating through the crisis. It's what do they do? This is a company now worth more than Disney. What they do is they either buy Spotify or they start making these massive, super interesting investments as they did in Madrid, where they have hired 10,000 creatives and they're creating content that can be morphed into German and Norwegian and Ukrainian content really easily. They just slip in into the same sets with the same scripts, different, you know, the hot star from Kiev, and they make a Ukrainian version. They're the only company other than Amazon. Yeah, they're the Amazon of entertainment.

That's what I was just thinking. 100%. Because by virtue of the fact that they're, as long as they manage that incredible story they have in concert with this, that's the peanut butter, the chocolate is access to the cheapest capital in the history of entertainment. And they can keep making these forward-leaning investments. And then the wind of, look, the wind of corona will eventually subside and people will hopefully be spending less time in their homes. But they're still going to spend more time in their homes than they did pre-corona. And you have one company that is just going out and absolutely making such incredible investments and they're making if you're if you're making triple the capex of anybody else and you're just as good or better which netflix is you kind of can't compete so yeah they're really

good i've been watching mostly netflix stuff i have to say all the things just whatever i watched like a dumb diane keaton movie on it the other night. I just, even their dumb movies. But even their AI. So for example, if I log- It's just good. It made me go to it. I don't know why. And I watched,

I ended up watching two movies in a row. It's becoming the home screen for your TV. But if I go to the home screen of Apple TV Plus or Disney Plus, and then you do, we see the same thing. Whereas our Netflix screens are entirely different. They have figured out a way to incorporate

some sort of AI or personal recommendation engine that is just superior, that again, leverages a better investment. And by the way, that investment is bigger. So it's a rum floater chaser on a much bigger Mai Tai. Yep, I found one that they had funded, this amazing movie they funded about a kid doing, it was called Troop Zero. And Allison Janney was in it.

I love Allison Janney. You know what I watched last night? It was great. What? I watched Call Me By My Name. Oh, that's great. You watched that, the peach scene. Oh.

Yeah. Wow. Those guys are hot. You know, emerging, budding gay love, you know, trying to add some complexity to the dog. Like that movie. The movie, basically, I thought it was boring. Gay people loved it. Gay men loved it.

It's really great. You know what it was? It was a beautiful movie. It was a beautiful movie. It was a love story. It was like Comfort exploded into a movie. And it makes him want to move to Europe. It's basically, it should have been financed by the European tour.

I literally thought the last scene where he's crying and talking on the phone and the guy can't be gay was so powerful. They're making another one, apparently, because there was a book. There was a follow-on book. It would be great if they did. And Timothee Chalamet. That guy has a tall drink of lemonade. Oh, my gosh.

Which one? It's a hot one. I'm not going to speak. They're both hot. What are you talking about? Timothee Chalamet is the young one. Is this one young? You can't talk about young people that way.

No, he's not actually young. Timothee Chalamet is the young one. You can't talk about young people that way. No, he's not actually young. Timothy Chalamet is the dark-haired guy. And tell me, Oracle, of North Korea. I don't want to say that it's inflated, but when you have stock that is that, what I'll call, massively fully valued, and now Netflix is worth more than Disney, you take this opportunity to make acquisitions. So Spotify. I like Spotify because Spotify on its own- Yeah, I don't think they'll sell. Can't survive.

Yes, I agree. You might be right. Or they're going to make some crazy investments in international production because that's kind of the only place where people don't have Netflix is in Asia and Europe. Yeah. But you're right. Reed Hastings is probably, he's kind of the, I don't want to call him unsung hero, but everybody talks about- probably, he's kind of the, I don't want to call him unsung hero, but everybody talks about the genius of Bezos and Gates and Zuckerberg. He is, people will look back when they look at the environment and probably the world's greatest pivot in the history of business. I mean, they were mailing out DVDs.

I was, listen, he was amazing. I think I did tell you this. I interviewed him at Sundance. Nobody would pay attention to him. Nobody would come. And I was like, this guy's got onto something. He's so calm. He's an adult. I really enjoy talking to him because he's such an adult. And even though they have that weird culty thing and everything, he really did understand. He just has an iron stomach to change things and everything.

Well, he's not that interesting. He doesn't take dick pics and he doesn't let Russia weaponize the platform. So we're not interested in him. Yeah, and he left the board of Facebook, speaking of which, getting into Facebook. I think he's not that interesting. He doesn't take dick pics and he doesn't let Russia weaponize the platform. So we're not interested in him. Yeah, and he left the board of Facebook, speaking of which, getting into Facebook. I think he had had it. You mean him like anyone else

with any integrity? But anyways. I think he was, I think he should say something about it, but he, I think, I'm pretty certain he had it. This week, Facebook made its largest

single investment in a company because it can't buy anything in the United States. It bought something called Jio, which is a big deal. It's in India. The $5.7 billion investment would give Facebook a 9.99% stake in Jio Platforms. Jio Platforms is a major carrier of internet and cellular services in India.

It is a big deal in India. It's a huge company in India. More than 388 million people in India have been connected to the internet over the past four years through Jio. India has the largest market for Facebook. I think it's a large market for Facebook. It's not the largest, but it's one of the largest in the world. More than 400 million people in the country use WhatsApp. The investment still requires approval from the competition regulators. It isn't Facebook's first attempt to break into the India market. Several years ago, it tried to offer free internet to Indian users in a program called Free Basics, a little controversial.

Ultimately, regulators decided that companies could not offer free internet services. It favored some companies over others. And a reminder, in January, Jeff Bezos made announcements about branching out into Indy. He pledged to invest an additional $1 billion in the country to digitize the businesses and spoke of exporting $10 billion of Indian goods by 2025 through Amazon. So as part of the announcement, Zuckerberg posted in the blog, with communities around the world in lockdown, many of these entrepreneurs need digital tools they can rely on to find and communicate with customers and grow their businesses.

I don't know what he was saying there, but India, India, this is where they can expand. That's my guess, because they're going to have a hard time buying anything in the United States. Yeah, it just goes to, there's something to be said of the notion of where you really make a lot of progress professionally or from a business, and granted, you have to be in a position to do that, is to play offense while everyone's playing defense. So, the majority of companies are drawing up plans to furlough employees or cutting costs. And meanwhile, Facebook's like, all right, let's, we absolutely aren't going to be on our heels. Let's

go on our toes. And they're off doing what must have been a very complicated deal with hundreds of thousands of high-priced lawyers in conference rooms to figure out a way to buy 9.99% such that they didn't trigger Indian regulatory laws. But largest sell, the guy who owns it is the wealthiest man in India. And I mean, he is not afraid. He has levered up dramatically, basically driven down sell costs and put some of the biggest players, including Vodafone, on the brink of bankruptcy. And this is really interesting because what this appears to be like, and I'm curious if you agree, I couldn't figure out why they were doing this, to take a minority stake in a company. And what this looks like it is, is basically a multibillion dollar investment in an attempt to monetize the 600 million WhatsApp users in India.

And that is, there's something called Geomart that is exceptionally popular among Indian small businesses. And the thinking is, all right, let's take the small businesses and connectivity of small businesses. Let's put them on WhatsApp and let's try and turn WhatsApp into an e-commerce platform on top of a 600 million strong user base. And then maybe import those learnings to the rest of the world and turn WhatsApp into what is probably could be the next Instagram and that is drives the real value at Facebook. So I think this is essentially an investment in WhatsApp or the monetization strategy of WhatsApp, which so far has been incredible from a user standpoint, but not from a monetization standpoint. And it also portends an incredible investment, increase in investment in India. India is about to become, I don't want to say it will be the next China, but it'll be

the next China in terms of capital allocation. Because between coronavirus and diversifying your supply chain, everyone's looking to the nearest instead of the farthest. And India, you know, they sort of run up against a wall in China in terms of investing the next big market. But India is somewhat open, although much more controlled by the government. You know, and of course, under Modi, it's almost like he's sort of a fascist, essentially. And he's very controlling of the media. He's disturbingly controlling of the media and doing all kinds of really nefarious things. It sounds more palatable when you say una fascista.

Fascista. Anyway, he's an awful, just the stuff he's doing around the media is quite disturbing. So it's interesting that this is where they can go to grow. Now, Uber, you know, was there, it competes with Ola. It's a market that's enormous and full of promise. They've got to grow somewhere, like the kind of, that's what I think. They kind of, and their first attempt was kind of ham-handed with the free basics. And then if you remember, Marc Andreessen made that kind of ridiculous remark about India at the time. But I think this is the way to get in,

like the way Yahoo got in long ago, got into China through Alibaba. They try to go in straight ahead, and it's very difficult. And Uber struggled there, even though it's done better than people thought. I think it's still struggling. And of course, that's where they had

a lot of their biggest controversies previously. But I think this has got to be markets that they've got to get into in a big way. They cannot buy anything here. Neither Amazon nor Facebook can possibly buy a company here. I mean, when you were talking about Netflix buying Spotify, obviously Amazon would be a contender for Spotify. They can't. Amazon can't. I know they can't. That's the whole thing. Amazon can't. Netflix could probably can't. That's the whole thing. Amazon can't. Netflix could probably get away with it

before raising antitrust scrutiny. But let's do what I always do. Let's turn this story back to me. Okay. All right. Your favorite topic. Yeah, my favorite topic. In the early aughts,

I went on the board of Gateway Computer after buying or raising money and buying 17% of the company. You were on the board of Gateway Computer? Talk about...

That guy. What was that guy's name? Talk about the weakest flex in the world. You were on the board of Gateway. Talk about... That guy. What was that guy's name? Talk about the weakest flex in the world. I was on the board of Gateway. What was that guy's name? Ted Waite. Wait, Ted Waite. Oh, he was funny.

Actually a visionary guy. Brought a ton of jobs in South Dakota. Yeah, in a way. Anyways. Of a type. In a way. So, but 30 years ago, if you read a researcher

and analyst report on computer hardware, there was a real controversy. Half the analysts would have said that Gateway was going to win and half would have said, there was a real controversy. Half the analysts would have said that Gateway was going to win, and half would have said that Dell was going to win. And we know how that turned out. Anyways, if you had talked to geopolitical analysts, the Ian Bremers of the world, 30 or 40 years ago, they would have said it's a horse race between India and China for the next major superpower. Because we like to think, of course, that our

unique system is the way to go, that there were more English speakers in India, there were more PhDs in India than anywhere in the world, and it's a democracy. So we said, okay, of course, India has to win. And it hasn't. But I wonder if India is about to command the space it occupies. This could be, because when you think about all the capital that was going into China, and then you think about the corruption, you think about Corona, you think about the fact that everyone's trying to diversify their supply chain, because look what happens when 90% of your tops are knit in Shenzhen or wherever. And everyone's going to turn, I think, to India. And you also have what is the key asset of any

economic growth is you have a lot of young people. And so it's going to be, India is finally probably about to get their due, which, anyways, my prediction is around India. We'll come back to that. But to think about this, 30 years ago, people, India, China, it was a coin flip over who was going to be the next major superpower. Yeah, exactly. I think it's an interesting country. Have you been there much? I used to travel there quite a bit. I haven't been there in about a year. I've never been to India. And you know what? My closest friends, and this is technically a racist comment, my closest friends at Stern are...

Please make it then. My closest friends at Stern are Indian. I love Indians. I can't believe you've never been there as someone who talks about... I'm intimidated by it. And you know what? I'm intimidated by my perception of the incredible poverty and also of— Well, it's certainly there.

I worry about getting sick, which makes me a total wimp. That's also there, too. But India's the largest country I've never been to. You can get sick here in this country now. Yes, many, many, many times. Many, many times. Do you like it? I do.

It's a difficult country. It's a really interesting mix of totally modern and totally antiquated, and also the poverty is—you know, I haven't been there in about a year, year and a half, but, you know, it's really something to see. It's also beautiful. And so just life, let me just say life in all its forms. I don't know how else to put it. And what's interesting is the modernity mixed with the lack of modernity.

And so you'll be watching a TV, you know, and you'll have, you know, India, MTV India, and it's all like modern and, you know, everything's modern, all the cell phone, all this stuff. And then you'll look up and then there'll be a telephone pole full of like wires in this way that's just sort of insane the way that it, anyway, it's a really, it's a wonderful country.

And there's a lot of, you know, obviously innovators. And I think that what's interesting is whether what Facebook is up to. That wasn't that compelling. I'm no more likely to go to India after that. Just go. Just go. It's wonderful. It's a wonderful country.

You would like it a lot. But what's interesting is why Facebook is doing this this way. I think they just need to sort of get in there and grow. I just, I don't see, it's, you know, in terms of having a purchase, they need a purchase. And this is obviously an innovative company so that it's a better one than the big players. There's a lot of very entrenched players in India, you know, in terms of the companies. I think, though, I think that what the media is missing here, the media sees an investment in India, and it is what I see it as is an investment in a monetization strategy for WhatsApp. Okay.

We'll see. All right. All right. Well, it's an interesting purchase, and it will be interesting to see what other companies, what other U.S. companies do there. Let's do a pivot from India. And by the way, let's absolutely take that Army Hammer guy. I would like to roll with him in a box full of peaches. What do you think?

Oh, my God. That guy is so hot. And he's a good actor. And he's a good actor. He's hot. He was in that terrible movie with Leo DiCaprio about Edgar Hoover. Oh, yeah. He was his boyfriend.

He played his boyfriend. Listen to me. He's also Hammer, the Hammer family. That's the Hammer family? Yeah. He's really wealthy, too. He's from Hammer, the Hammer family. That's the Hammer family? Yeah, he's really wealthy, too. He's from that family. Well, that's how you go into entertainment is you have a rich dad. Well, he's very wealthy.

He's really wealthy. And very talented. That guy's very good. He was fantastic in Facebook. He convinced me he was one of two people. Okay. He's a very good actor. Anyway, calm down about your new gay awakening, Scott.

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but he fell victim and we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to work together to protect each other. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. send money to people you know and trust. leads are worth knowing and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Okay, Scott, we're back. Listen, Jeff Bezos is back at the helm of Amazon amid the COVID-19 outbreak. It was a great story in the New York Times chronicling that. Bezos has stepped away from day-to-day operations at Amazon. He was doing sort of the big stuff. He was flying around the world and doing Instagramming with his new girlfriend. He was working on long term projects like Blue Origin or different things that Amazon was doing. You know, that's what

happens. He sort of kicked himself upstairs. In a letter to shareholders, he said, for now, my own time and thinking continues to be focused on COVID-19 and now how Amazon can help when we're in the middle of it. He also discusses safety measures the company has taken for its Whole Foods workers and says the next step for the company will be testing for COVID-19. Bezos also said the World Health Organization is using Amazon Web Services to organize its data. using Amazon Web Services to organize its data. And earlier this month, Bezos made his first public appearance at an Amazon warehouse, the first one in years, and he posted a video of it to Instagram. So this story was about how he's engaging day-to-day, every day of the week now, on everything from delivering services to worker safety to perception to PR. He's back. It looks like he's in Texas. He has a big ranch there. And he's been involved now

very deeply. So what do you think about this day-to-day return, which he had given off to a lot of his executives who've been with him forever, so they know how he thinks? So what is the optics of this? What are the internal politics? Or is it that the executives can't do the job, that they need him there? Or is it just this is just a natural crisis and it's really important for Amazon, which its stock is, you know, to the moon right now. So we've talked about this and the issues around the workforce. And you've predicted Amazon becomes a $2 trillion company in the next couple of years. Bezos ended the shareholder letter with a section calling leveraging scale for good. We can talk about that.

So your thoughts on this, on Bezos' back at the helm. It's kind of the basis of good leadership. And in crisis management, you say there's only three things you have to remember. You have to address the issue, you have to overcorrect, and the top guy or gal has to be front and center. And this is a form of crisis management. And that is when shit gets real or you're in the midst of a crisis, you have to get very involved and put all your plans on hold. And he's done that. And he's very present. He's making decisions. He's a great leader. I think he's going to probably go down as, you know, he's the Jack Welch of our generation. A lot of people have decided that Chainsaw Jack and the total focus obsession with shareholder value wasn't a good idea.

And Jack Welch kind of set up kind of a hollow foundation for General Electric. This guy, Bezos will probably, if he had to vote now, who in 50 years will be seen as the most dominant business figure of this century? It'll be Bezos. And this is just basic kind of leadership 101. When you're in a situation of this magnitude and this importance, you show up, you put everything aside, and he's done it. Yeah, stop buying houses in Hollywood,

stop taking weird pictures. Yeah, that's right. And so it's not, I don't think it's that complex or nuanced a view. It's just that when this is an opportunity, when things, and I think it's an opportunity for every entrepreneur when you're in a small business to be really present in the business, really visible, call everybody, check in on everybody, and just be all over everything all the time. And that's not to say that you push your lieutenants aside. My sense is he has an unbelievable bench. Yeah, they've been with him for, you know, one of them was like, I think the guy who runs, Andy Jassy runs AWS, was like a teenager.

I'm recalling he was very young and he was sort of, they were all assistants, like Russ Grandinetti worked for Mary Meeker. There was a bunch of people there that have been there forever. It's a really interesting group of people. You know, actually, Reed Hastings had a very similar thing where people had been with him for a very long time. He has not left the helm, of course. He runs that place pretty much. He's still very much in charge there. And Bezos had given it off to people like Jeff Wilkie. What do you think his big issues are? Obviously, the safety of workers has been there, a negative than the safety of workers. And one of the things they were telling you about is testing everybody all the time. And of course, that brings to mind, you know, a lot of people are telling me these companies are just going to start buying tests themselves and test people constantly and take the role that government should play in this in order.

I mean, I think that's the most glaring problem is these worker problems have always been Amazon's Achilles heel of how it treats workers and how it, and it's tried in various ways to pay them more and do the thing, but it's, there's always this sense that they are, they gobble up people and, and, and are not thinking of their people the most. So I think this is one of their biggest problems. And during a pandemic,

it's a way to prove that perhaps you, you are better than people think you are. And the second one is this idea that they're so big, we can't live without them. And that's a negative on when this ends. Yeah, so first off, and this goes into a shareholder letter. And a shareholder letter versus all the previous shareholder letters where it was playing offense and striking a vision. This shareholder letter was, look how important we are.

Look how nice we are. Look how good we are. Don't break us up. This was the most disappointing shareholder letter that he's ever put out. And because they're now, you said, what are their issues? It's actually not Amazon's issues. It's our issues. Because Amazon is marching towards $2 trillion. Unfortunately, they and Walmart have now become too big to fail. The scariest thing that could happen right now is if there were massive outbreaks or just Cesar Chavez organized Amazon and Walmart warehouse workers.

And they said, you know what, America? For the next 72 hours, we're going to shut down your food chain. They're not going to do that. You want to see people start to riot at the Publix and the Kroger's if Walmart and Amazon have become too big to fail, which is really scary. And the other scary thing, and we're seeing it with Mayor Bloomberg, is, and it's wonderful that he's doing this, but Mayor Bloomberg is now swooping in to save New York and provide contact tracing. And while I applaud him for putting his money to civic use and the fact that government now needs to rely on rich people to step in and do our testing and tracing. It's ridiculous. needs to rely on rich people to step in and do our testing and tracing.

It's ridiculous. Isn't, okay, in the short run, for about a day, we should applaud those wealthy people. But then we have to spend time on thinking, okay, how do we get back to a state where our government and our fire department can put out fires instead of asking the rich guy down in the neighborhood to grab his kids and bring their really nice hose over? We just can't. grab his kids and bring their really nice hose over. You just can't. It's embarrassing that Governor Cuomo has to put out a press release thanking Michael Bloomberg for doing...

The kindness of billionaires. The kindness of billionaires. Pablo Escobar built soccer stadiums, but that didn't mean that the society was working. All right. But Bezos here, what do you imagine? Do you think he'll stay engaged or he'll just swoop in, fix this, and then he will have to deal with these Amazon is too big. I think that is not going away. I think Trump, of course, has tried to attack him unsuccessfully. He's done a very deft job of staying away from Trump. And in fact, he participated in a recent thing that Trump brought together, one of those circuses, business circuses that he put together.

But what does he do now? Like, everyone's sort of in debt to Amazon for delivering perfectly. What does he do now? Because no matter how you slice it, even if he's good, he's too big. Yeah, look, I've been thinking a lot about what you could do with that $600 billion, that 400 of it is going to waste and will be the biggest scandal of COVID-19. In my view, in addition to the incompetence of our federal government that has had more time to prepare and yet has managed to figure out a way to have more death and more infection than

Spain, Italy, the UK, and China combined. So that will be the biggest controversy is that, as Stalin said, one death is a tragedy. tragedy millions of deaths are a statistic and because the president has committed such gross incompetence on such a massive level it's now a statistic instead of involuntary manslaughter. do with that. So, for example, why wouldn't we, there's supposed to be 4 million kids showing up for college in the fall, another 10 to 12 million, some form of education in terms of junior college, a bunch more that would like some form of training. Why wouldn't we have a Corona Corps and that is take $10 billion, maybe 15, and have the world's most adroit technologically or technically capable tracing army and make sure that the same doesn't come back. Wait, what does this have to do with Amazon?

It's a great idea. Well, because effectively you can't have – a key step to tyranny was when essentially companies' private power becomes the government. And if they're in charge of testing and tracing, then they're too big to fail. Then they get to make decisions. Then they ultimately get control. And delivery, food delivery.

They get control of the economy. Then they say, I know, I'll buy the Washington Post. And once you get control of the economy and the media, you typically end up taking control of the military. And the people running German industry didn't wake up in the morning and go, we're going to be evil. But it led to a very evil place.

And this is very scary. And one of the things. I don't feel like Jeff Bezos is going to be running the military, Scott. Pretty soon. Okay. $10 billion Jedi CIA contract. Oh, fair point. That's one step.

But he didn't get it. He didn't get it. That's in the middle. Because it's been politicized. Yeah. A crisis is been politicized. Yeah. But there's a, a crisis is a terrible thing to waste. The most forward-looking investments we could make

are one, to break up, and I was talking about investments, so the CoronaCorp, one investment, you know what would be the best return on investment we could make right now? What? Is if we tripled the budget to the DOJ and the FTC. Yes, agreed.

You know that. I'm down, but I think that's done. I think that's done. You think it's over? I do. I do. Is it going to happen or it's too late? It's too late.

They're not going to get to it. They're exhausted, these legislators, and they're not going to get to it. This is the last thing on there. It's moved down from number two or one to number 12 or whatever. All right. We're going to get some. You're right. You're right.

But I don't think Jeff Bezos is going to take over the military anytime soon, but maybe, maybe. Okay, Scott. But by the way, just real quick, one last thing, I'm sorry. We always forget, we talk about this stuff through the lens of politics and business.

We forget these people are humans. Jeff Bezos is going through the mother of all midlife crises. And I went through a midlife crisis and you know what, Kara, I thought it was going to involve extraordinary experiences, sex with random beautiful women, and an adventure enjoying the world. And you know what? You know what? I was right. They're awesome. They're awesome. And if

I was Jeff Bezos, I would continue. He's going to show up for his photo moment. He's going to get a bunch of press. And then he's going to go back to his wonderful midlife crisis. No, he can't do it. You know what it's not? It's a different kind of midlife crisis. He's going to be a category award. Midlife crisis. He's a romantic. He's a romantic. Anyway, let's I don't want to talk about his sex life right now. Where's the phone? Where's the camera?

Let's hear from a listener. Okay. I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've got mail. Hey, Carol I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman. You've got mail. Hey, Carol and Scott. This is Shabani from Cleveland, Ohio. I'm a big fan of the show and listen every week. And my question today is about COVID-19 recovery.

It looks like masks are going to be an essential part of the recovery process. Asian cultures have been wearing them for a while now, but they're a relatively new phenomenon here in the U.S. How do you think they'll be received here? Do you think they're going to be utilitarian or high fashion? Is PPE a viable product line for mass apparel and fast fashion brands? And if so, which ones do you think we'll embrace at first? Thanks so much. Well, this is a good question because I have teens and they're discussing this.

My son wanted me to buy a $50, I don't know, vape one or Supreme one, and I declined. I declined. And my other son has a fashion one. I bought them plain white ones, and this is not going to work. And they want to wear these masks. It's interesting. Last week, Vogue posted a story touting masks to shop now.

There's a new subscription company called TheMaskClub.com with licensing deals with Hello Kitty, NASA, and Batman, among others. Masks are a thing. I have to tell you, the teens, they will not wear the masks I bought them. They have to have, you know, I mean, I think anyone should get any mask. So I think the whole thing is redonkulous. But what do you think about this? Is it a business? Will Americans and others

wear them all the time the way they do in Asian countries? Well, as a species, we don't have claws. We're not that strong. We're not that fast. So, a tremendous amount of our frontal lobe and cortex is focused on examining our surroundings to make sure something's not about to eat us because if something gets near us, we're probably doomed. So, we constantly look at other animals eyes and other people's eyes because someone's not going to shoot you or attack you typically if they're not looking at you so we spend just so much time focusing on other people's eyes and specifically their faces and as a result the face is just an enormous industry i mean

according to ill makiaj it's a 500 billion dollar plus industry, right? So Estee Lauder, L'Oreal. Think about how much money and how much time, especially women, spent on their face relative to the rest of their corpus, right? So if you think about the next kind of big signaling or wearable, it's going to be face masks. And you're going to see LVMH. You're going to see every fashion company offer some sort of signaling. You're going to have masks that say, okay, I'm cool, I'm edgy because when you cover your face, all you really see is eyes. The complexity

and nuance of a person goes way down because we like to make... Smiling. Well, and also, the reason why we... What about transparent masks? Why don't we make transparent ones? Oh, that's an interesting idea because it would probably steam up and just look very strange. But supposedly we're drawn to people with symmetry in their face and high cheekbones because supposedly those people are less prone to infection, et cetera,

et cetera. And people with a prominent Adam's apple, it means they're male and strong. How do you look in a mask? I'm much more attractive in a mask, I have to say. Mask works for the dog, as does the dark. I look kind of good. No, no, no. I'm not saying the dark. I think I look better in a mask. Face your podcast. Face your podcast. No, it's not that I'm ugly necessarily. It's just that like the masks work well on me.

They work well on you? And especially with the glasses, with the sunglasses. I look like the worst, like extra on Mad Max. I just look terrible. But this idea of them being fashionable, I just think is awful. But, you know. Who says the person wearing Ray-Bans during a podcast? Listen to me.

I have the same shoes since college. So, you know. Says the person wearing Ray-Bans during a podcast. Listen to me. I have the same shoes since college, so don't even speak to me about fashion. But do you think it's an actual business or just it'll be a necessity? Anything big? Is it a big thing? No, it'll be. Though some companies will emerge, interesting subscription ideas. But what you're going to see is you're going to see everyone from Prada to Old Navy to really cool. Supreme's a great example.

People are going to pay a lot of money. I'm not buying that mask. A lot of money for a Supreme mask. It's going to be a new form of self-expressive benefit branding, just as your Apple Watch is. But I want them to wear a mask. I'm sort of torn. Like, I want to wear a mask, but I'm not buying that mask.

I'll be curious if people, so we're renovating our house down here in Florida, and it feels like in just the last 48 hours, everyone's gone from wearing a mask to not wearing a mask. And we're trying to. Oh no, everyone's wearing them here in DC. I feel badly when I don't have it on. I have it on all the time. And, uh, and I, when I sometimes take it off when I'm, when there's no one around, but I can see like, you know, I agree. There was someone counting masks in San Francisco and only about 10% of people had them on when they were relatively close to

each other. I don't wear it when I'm not near people, but I immediately have it ready to put on. And in stores here, it's a requirement. And, you know, I've had some workers in a house that nobody lives in, and they all have to wear masks and gloves. And they all do. They all arrive like that, which is interesting. I think it's a good trend in general. And I think I'm going to keep wearing masks after this. I'm an advanced person. I'm general. And I think I'm going to keep wearing masks after this. I'm an advanced person. I'm an advanced age person. I'm going to keep wearing masks. All right. Also, I look good. All right. Anyway, we're going to take a break. Thank you so much for your... I hope Cleveland's doing okay. Thank you. Your governor is pretty

okay, even though I'm not in the GOP. Doe Wine. Doe Wine is pretty decent. He seems like a sensible fella, unlike the mayor of Las Vegas. Anyway, all right. Oh, my God. Can you believe? We'll talk about that in a minute. Can you believe that shit? She's insane. She's insane. And Anderson Cooper literally did the best job of interviewing. I have to give kudos to him for that.

All right, Scott, we're going to take one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. I predict she's not going to be mayor of Las Vegas for too much longer. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. You know what's not easy? Marketing. And when you're starting your small business,

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With Constant Contact, you can get email marketing that helps you create and send the perfect email to every customer, and create, promote, and manage your events with ease, all in one place. with ease, all in one place. Get all the automation, integration, and reporting tools that get your marketing running seamlessly, all backed by Constant Contact's expert live customer support. Ready, set, grow. Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial. ConstantContact.ca. discover what differentiates their investment approach, what learnings have shifted their career trajectories, and how do they find their next great idea? Invest 30 minutes in an episode today. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. Okay, Scott, before we get into your prediction for the week, did you see that the University of Chicago did a study tracking COVID-19 related deaths in relation to Fox News viewership? Did you see that?

Yeah, but that's correlation, not causation. Well, we'll see. No, no, no. They were doing it. They researched COVID-19 cases. Well, it's true. We said this. We said this, that listening, so the question there is, is listening to Hannity lower your fear resulting in reckless behavior that increases the likelihood of catching the virus? Or is it the fact that the people watch Fox tend to be older, have more comorbidities, live in regions that they're not taking distancing as seriously?

Well, no, but they compared Tucker Carlson watchers and Sean Hannity watchers. Yes, so this is, so they watched Tucker Carlson who comparatively came out with warnings. He did against coronavirus very early and very firmly and saying this is a really important thing you have to pay attention to and not go out.

And Sean Hannity, and the study found that greater exposure to Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson tonight leads to greater number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. It has not been, I will make clear, it's not been peer reviewed yet, but it's from a lot of economists I talked to told me it's a very good study. And it's interesting. So they did. They had a control room, speaking of Las Vegas.

And so it's interesting. So I just want to say, anecdotally, I was correct with my mom. And I'm thinking of writing a sequel, because it is impossible to get your mother out of a foxhole. A foxhole. She literally was parroting some stuff about opening the country, and I wanted to go down to

Florida and just bring her back here, because it was really, it was disturbing. Anyway, okay, Scott, time to get out of here, but I would like some predictions before we go. Well, my predictions we've talked about, I think that PPP is going to end up being the real or one of the real scandals of this. I think it's absolutely the amount of, I won't call it fraud because people aren't lying here because they don't need to lie, but the amount of waste, the number of, the amount of capital. I mean, money is just a transfer of work and time from other people to

someone else. And when we run up our deficit by $600 billion to flatten the curve of rich people, of which there are more wealthy people from small businesses in America than any other sector or cohort. And all of this money, or not all of it, 60 to 80 percent of it, we're going to find out, just flatten the curve for the people who are already rich. It's going to be the scandal economically of this bailout package. And then my second prediction is that the Indian market is going to outperform almost every market over the next nine months because there's going to be a frenzy of activity and also scrutiny. And finally, people are going to say, well, maybe India is the next China. Look what happened to the Chinese

market through the 90s and the aughts. Let's start allocating some capital to Chinese tech stocks. You're going to see the Indian market is going to outperform its peer group. All right. And what about the Chinese market, since you mentioned them? You know, that's an interesting— SEC's getting tough on them? It's interesting. There was some, you know, noise from the head of the SEC.

It'll be very interesting. China has such an impressive culture in terms of shareholder value, and it ends up that, to a certain extent, autocratic rule can be actually pretty good. An autocracy combined with capitalism can be actually pretty good. Autocracy combined with capitalism can actually be pretty effective. But it'll be interesting because every board meeting I'm on, one of the top issues, we just keep talking about supply chain diversification, which is Latin for how do we get some of our manufacturing capacity out of China somewhere else because whether it's tariffs or an RNA you know virus we're just too dependent upon this one place yeah we're vulnerable absolutely I agree

that's a really good point all right so that is your prediction that is a good that is a solid prediction that is a I think mine that the mayor of Las Vegas will lose her job is do you know when that election is I don't I don't I think she's not really has many power. She doesn't have any power with the casinos. She doesn't seem to do anything. I think she's just a booster. She's a figurehead. But nonetheless, she should be gone.

That was just a really appalling indictment of leadership, that interview, what she was saying about being a control group. Would you like to be a control group, Scott? Depends what we're talking about. Why don't you be the control group for us? We will subject you to everything. And then I will have, you will have the placebo and I will have the actual correct drug. So I really want to be the test group. Anyways, no, no, you're the control group. You're the control group. In any case,

you're the control freak. I'm the control. That is true. All right, Scott, before we get out of here, you've requested an algebra of happiness moment because you felt we were dour last episode. It's a dour time. Yeah, I got depressed listening to our podcast. So anyways, my algebra of happiness moment is the following. I love the saying, I think,

I'm pretty sure it was Lennon who said that nothing can happen for decades and then decades can happen in days. Oh, nice. So if you think about who you are and your reputation, it's the sum of all your actions. And if you think of that being written in pencil on everyone's perception of you, I think the indelible ink that goes over that tracing is how you behave in times like this. like this. And whether it's our recognition of our military personnel, we give them medals in times of crisis, whether it's the most famous presidents or the most honored presidents are the ones who handled themselves well or acquitted themselves well during moments of crisis. I think all of us can take lessons from that. And I've been talking about spending a lot of time talking

to companies about how they get off their heels and onto their toes and what do they do during a crisis. But I've been spending a lot of time thinking about, I think this is an extraordinary opportunity to have an outsized return on your efforts in terms of strengthening and repairing relationships. And I think how you approach your relationships during this period will count as much or more than how you approach and repair relationships over the next several years. And that is if you, I think this is an extraordinary opportunity. If for some reason you don't have a great relationship with your parents, I think this is an opportunity for repair.

I think there's people in your life that you want to have stronger relationships with, checking in, establishing stronger bonds. I think this is an extraordinary opportunity to really get off your heels and onto your toes and both repair and strengthen your relationships. I like that, Scott. Thank you. What are you going to do for me then? I'm doing it.

I'm doing it. I'm making you the most famous podcaster in the world. I haven't noticed any Amazon delivery. Podcast of the year. How did that happen? Podcast of the year. How did that happen? No, no.

That was mine. My singular one. It wasn't your interview with a non-geared up. It wasn't your interview with Chum and Papa Taya's assistant that got you that. My singular one. Listen to me. Listen to me. Okay.

I'm waiting for the Amazon delivery of your gift to me now to improve our relationship. I have so given at the office here. Oh, my God. I feel like I deserve an Amazon delivery. Anyways, back to my absolute happiest moment. This is an extraordinary opportunity. You're right. I think it's also, on the bigger side,

I think it's an opportunity for repair. And that is, I think, if you look at the happiest people in the world, this virus shows us that life is finite. And if you want to be as happy as possible, it's all about one thing. It's about the depth and meaning of relationships. And the key to any long-term relationship

is bringing a sense of forgiveness because you and your friends and your parents and your siblings at some point will screw up. So bring a sense of forgiveness and let's do some massive repair. That is so sweet. You know, someone really was asking me what you're like. And I did say, you know, naughty and I meant vulgar. But actually, what I actually ended up saying is that you're a very soft-hearted man underneath. It's all an act.

It's all an act. No, no. It's all for ratings. I think you are. I soft-hearted man underneath. It's all an act. It's all an act. No, I think you are. It's all for ratings. It's all to get you podcasted for the next two years in a row. I think the vulgar part covers over the soft-hearted nature that you have. I agree with you.

I'm like a bear eating an igloo. Crunchy on the outside, soft on the inside. Yes, that's... Okay. All right. We're going to end on that. That's not vulgar. You immediately thought that was vulgar.

I don't know what it is. It's just bad. It's just a bad thing. A bear is eating an igloo I hear you I understand and then it gets to the humans on the inside

that is a joke of 12 year olds the world over that's Gary Larson the far side I know that but yes that's true that's fair

that's a fair thing but in any case Scott thank you for that moment of beauty you're welcome in a difficult time and you know

we'll try to have a laugh riot on Monday if we can. Anyway, if you, don't forget if you're storing the news. First lady of North Korea, the dog.

All right, listen, don't forget if there's a story in the news you're curious about and want to hear our opinion on, emails at pivot at boxmedia.com to be featured on the show. Scott, please read us out.

Today's episode was produced by Rebecca Sinanis, our executive producer is Erica Anderson. Special thanks to Drew Burrows and Rebecca Castro. If you like what you heard, please subscribe. Let's all take a moment to take advantage of this exceptional opportunity to be generous and forgiving and repair relationships that mean a lot to us. We'll see you next week. is AI for everyone. The latest model, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, offers groundbreaking intelligence at an everyday price. Claude Sonnet can generate code,

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