Pivot - Pivot Predictions: Scott’s Big Tech Stock Pick, The Next Bailout, and President JD Vance?

Episode Date: December 30, 2025

Kara and Scott check their predictions track record for 2025, and make new ones for 2026. What’s Scott’s big tech stock pick? Who’s getting the next big bailout? Will President Trump make it through another year? And will lesbians be running shit? (Yes.) Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠⁠⁠Pivot YouTube channel⁠⁠⁠⁠. Follow us on Instagram and Threads at ⁠⁠⁠⁠@pivotpodcastofficial⁠⁠⁠⁠. Follow us on Bluesky at ⁠⁠⁠⁠@pivotpod.bsky.social⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠⁠⁠@pivotpodcast⁠⁠⁠⁠. Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email ⁠⁠[e-mail]⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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ready to think outside rows and columns start building at mongo db.com slash build support for today's show comes from zoom work isn't just meetings it's calls chat docs emails events and more zoom brings it all together in one platform so workflows and ideas move faster learn more at zoom dot com slash podcast and zoom ahead I was right I was fucking dead right we predicted this Scott you and I predicted in March that we would see a deal like this we predicted he would exit as I predicted last week as I predicted I knew this day was coming and how it would go down you did you predicted it I did a new biography from Kara Swisher

and dot dot dot dot I was right but the thing is I was right Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. Scott, we're here for your Super Bowl, our annual predictions episode where we look past some of our past predictions and make some new ones. Are you ready? So ready, yeah. Okay. You have a lot. I know. I've got a few, too. You do. Listen up to both of us. Okay. We're starting things off on the subject of AI because we have to have to or obligated by legally to do so.

First, let's listen to a prediction you made on last year's prediction podcast. 2025 will be the year of a new duopoly. It'll be Open viti, Open AI and NVIDIA right now control arguably 90% of all traffic and AI. 90% of the queries, 90% of the queries of the processors that are powering those answers to those queries are those two firms.

And so it'll be kind of the new Wintel and people start referring it to it as the most powerful duopoly in the world. Well, interesting. That was absolutely true, except now it's code red at OpenAIA, how things have moved. And obviously, NVIDIA is still on top, but facing some possible competition in 2026. Any thoughts on that? Yeah, I don't know if that was that provocative of a prediction because it was already shaping up. The prediction I'm most proud of from last year is every year I have a big tech stock pick. And last year I picked Alphabet, and it's up 68% since the prediction. But it was already sort of forming. But yeah, they continue to sort of be the duopoly. What's interesting is similar to Wintel, people are coming for them. Right, very good point.

Across, you know, on both dimensions, but especially open AI. And I like your analogy that open AI might be the Netscape of our generation. Yeah, I've always waiting. Was it Netscape or Google? I think we're at that moment right now. It was Google for a little bit, but now it looks like Google's decided to be Google. And, Ann, you were right about that topic, great one. Okay, time for both of us to have an AI prediction for 2026.

Scott, you've got a prediction about AI stocks. Yeah, I think there's going to be a major drawdown, and it's because... The idea behind Flappy Bird was so simple. You're a bird. You tap on the screen to go up, you let go to go down, and you try not to hit the pipes. That's all it was, and somehow that game became such a phenomenon that it kind of ruined its developer's life. This week on Version History, a new chat. show about old technology, we tell the story of Flappy Bird, where it came from, how it became a

cultural phenomenon, and what it meant to the person who made it. All that on version history, wherever you get podcasts. Support for the show comes from LinkedIn. If you've ever hired for your small business, you know how important it is to find the right person. That's why LinkedIn Jobs is stepping things up with their new AI assistance so you can feel confident you're finding top talent you can't find anywhere else. The best part is those great candidates are already on LinkedIn. In fact, LinkedIn says employees that hire through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through a leading competitor.

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top candidates. That's LinkedIn.com slash pivot to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. It all goes back to geopolitics. Essentially, Trump has adjusted tariff policy with China 17 times so far in a second term. I think they've pretty much had it with this guy. And they've now said, they're now in the closest thing they could get into, short of a hot war. And so basically, China is totally diversifying away from the U.S. In terms of exports, their export volumes dropped up 40% since 2019,

while imports are only up 1%, and over the same period, the U.S. share of China's exports fell from 17 to 10%. And the reason that that sets the context here, and that's, I think China's about to go for the job, regular here, and I think that they're going to massively engage in what I'll refer to as AI dumping, and that is these open, open weight models, including QN3 Max. These models are just much cheaper, lower power consumption, and everyone from Airbnb to other Fortune 500 firms are starting to recognize that these things are lower cost. And I think essentially China's

going to say, okay, the fastest way to kick this guy in the nuts is that he's made a giant bet on AI, including the S&P and his entire economy on AI, and we're just going to start dumping AI into the U.S. market. And as a result, I think you're going to see a massive re-rating down. And also, the harsh truth is these open-weight models coming out of China are getting to technical parity. And the fastest way to build a big business is to offer 80% of the leader at 50% of the price, and that's what they're doing. So I think you're going to see massive pressure, placed on OpenA.I., and I think that is going to, and other U.S.-based models, and I think that's going to cause a re-rating down of these stocks. And even 80% of A16 Z startups use Chinese open-source

models. So, anyways, I think we're going to see a massive re-rating down of the Magnificent 7 at the hands of AI dumping from China. Yeah, that means data centers go down the whole thing. Oof. Ouch. Watch out below. All right. Mine is in an area that I keep thinking about a lot. I've spent a lot of time thinking about it, which is robotics. And I think the combination of AI and robotics has not been fully plumbed enough. And I really do think that we are not paying attention to what all the innovations happening there is because we get focused on Elon's stupid optimist robots that are running around doing our laundry. I think they're in manufacturing and all kinds of areas, robotics are going to really start to become really interesting. Cars, I consider that robotics. the smarts of them combined with robotics is really where the big changes we're going to see in our society. I just do, I don't mean, again,

a bot making your coffee, but it's not going to look like what you think because I think it's really hard as many robotics people tell you to make a hand work. And where we're focusing is so anthropomorphic that I think it's a mistake. I think there'll be robotics in lots and lots

and lots and lots of things. And especially when combined with AI in Korea, they have these essentially the ectoskeletons now have AI embedded in them, and they work so much better. And so you can see it being applied all over the place. And these are braces, they look like braces, and before they were mechanical that would help you walk.

Now, AI helps decide how you do it, and I think they're nothing short of miraculous. And so that's where you're gonna see some, that's my Aryan AI is focusing on its applications in a wide range of different products across robotics. All right. I love that, and just add some texture that. I think where you will see shareholder gains from AI won't be in AI.

It'll be an AI application, specifically autonomous, specifically Waymo. And as you said, the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics, specifically Amazon. And we'll come back to that. Yeah, absolutely. And they have been early to that, by the way. Okay. Next category, business. Scott, let's listen to a prediction you made back in April.

I think you're going to see in the next one or two weeks a cadre of Fortune 500 CEOs, Republicans, stand up, business leaders stand up and say, okay, enough already. While you all claim he's playing 4D chest, at this point where he's going to start eating the pieces. Not so much, although Jamie Diamond sort of yelled at Maria Bartrama the other day, but not so much. Yeah. Yeah, I don't have any comment.

They really have turned out to be profiles in non-courage. That's really something else. Yeah, I thought, I just don't, and I still don't. get it, quite frankly. I still don't understand... They're starting a little bit. What's the point of having all this money? And if you don't nod to the principles that got you this wealthy, I don't, I just don't, I don't get it. I don't understand it. These guys are bulletproof. What are they worried about? Yep, agree. I think it's just one of the most disappointing things you've seen here. I think it's surprised everybody, a lot of people. Anyway,

you've got an investment prediction here, and then I have one. Go ahead. I mean my stock pick? Yes. So my big tech stock pick, every year I pick a big tech stock pick. And my stock pick this year is, and when I say outperform, if AI throws up, everything's going down, folks. What I'm saying is this stock will perform better. That might be down 10 instead of down 50. But my big tech pick for 2026 is Amazon. It's been an underperformer.

Year to date, it's only up 7%. And also its revenue per employee is down 28%. versus up 49, 56, and 62 at MetAlphabeta, Microsoft, respectively, because they have made massive investments that have not yet yielded payoffs in, see above what Kara said, robotics. But what you're going to see here is that they've started laying off employees.

I'm not saying that's a good thing, but Google's laid off 2,500, 4,600, Tesla, 14,000. Amazon's laid off 18,000. And what's just so striking is that, Amazon is predicting it can double the revenue at its retail group, which is as big its top-line revenue business with no increase in employees. And I think the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics at Amazon is huge. And Amazon is really the Ford of the 21st century, and that is over several years, Ford

was able to take the time to manufacture a car down 90%. And Amazon, just since its acquisition of Kiva robots, has been able to take down click to fulfill or to ship down by 80%. And if you want to talk about your prediction around investment in robotics, here is the number of operational industrial robots. China has two million. The U.S., excluding Amazon, has 400,000. Amazon has a million operational industrial robots. So Amazon has two and a half times the number of operational robots, industrial robots, is the rest of the nation combined. So they have made an enormous bet, and typically margin expansion from Amazon has come from its media group, where you have forced to advertise or from its cloud group.

But you're going to see a margin expansion at the hands of operational efficiencies from robotics and AI in its retail group. It's also, I don't want to say cheap right now, but reasonably priced, it typically trains at a P multiple over the last five years of 58. Now it's at 33. And it's enterprise value to EBITDA is usually 23 and now it's 17. So in sum, my, I think it's fairly, it's not, it's a fair value right now. And I think you're about to see the mother of all margin expansion at the hands of AI and robotics. So my big tech stock pick for 26 is Amazon. So Amazon, it is really interesting. You know, there's a lot of IPOs coming up.

We've talked about them, SpaceX, a bunch of others. And I think that's all very interesting. But, you know, you talked about that there was a lot of worry about the stock market declines a couple of years ahead of the decline, right? I just feel like with this midterm election coming up, we may have more of a stock market downturn before that. Like, I don't like to call these things. I'm not an expert in this way.

But investors feel very fragile. it seems like, and anything affects them. And I know it's been a surging stock market. It really has, sort of against all the odds and all the deficits and everything. It seems to, like, ignore that. But I don't think I could ignore it for two or three more years. I think sometime in 2026, maybe right after the midterms, which I think everyone needs to be paying attention to, obviously, this year.

We may start to see, like, maybe the stock market not being so good for Trump. I think that has helped buoy him. And as you said, if China does things like you were talking about, you're going to see where you're going to see the declines are in these tech companies. So I just feel like there's going to be a real, a lot of volatility around the companies that you talked about at the first place. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. We come back. More predictions. Okay, Scott, let's talk politics. sure we could have predicted most of the mess that was the 2025 politics. We did okay. We did get

one thing right about a certain breakup. Let's listen to what I said in November of 2024. I think these people can't coexist together in the same room for much for too long. Trump likes the attention and Elon likes the attention and there's only so much attention to go around. And I had a cold end. Let's hear what you had to say on the matter in February. I think Doge is going to be over and done by the end of the year. Okay, we got that one, right? We just did, we just knew it. Yeah, but they saved $2 billion.

Yeah. No, he saved nothing. He killed people. He's about to unwittingly, and I'm not saying he meant to do this, but he will probably end up on some lists along with Stalin, Pol Pot, Hitler. People will start to aggregate lists. I don't know if Trump or Musk will be on that list,

but when you look at the hundreds of thousands of people whose fatality or death can be directly linked to a lack or cutoff of U.S. they're going to end up on some of those lists. Yeah, and I think we got the Doge thing right. They're still there. Some of them are still there. But, you know, look, it's fine to want to save money and be more efficient. But the way he did it was so ham-handed and cruel and pointless.

I met some USAID people last night at an event, and they were doing astonishing work. And it was all soft diplomacy, you know, soft power and stuff. Just the damage he's done because he's such a, like, demented addict of something. sort. It was really, really stupid. And I think he just wanted to break, like me, break thing by kind of thing. And it wasn't thoughtful. There's a thoughtful ways to figure out how to be more efficient. And he didn't use none of them. And it was inevitable that he would fight with Trump. He'll still be hanging around the basket because he's such a toxic figure. And Trump will use him as he wants. But Trump certainly, if only if he has use for him,

will he be around? Okay. I've already made one politics prediction for 2026. Let's play a clip as a reminder. I don't know. I feel like we're going to have President J.D. Vance by the end of 2026. I get it, but he is the vice president. You think this ends his presidency prematurely. Yes. Well, I still think that. That would, so I can see him being impeached in Congress. He would need 66 votes or 67 in the Senate. I don't mean like that. You think he resigns? I think he's sicker than we realize. I think he's very robust looking, but I think there's all manner of, I've seen more and more doctors like this is like, I don't know. Look, his family stuck around for a while being, his dad stuck around for a while with dementia. That's for sure. But I do think there's, I just, I don't know. I just feel like, I think they're going to try to give Vance an attempt to be president. And I think that they'll run out of reasons to keep him there. And I think if he loses badly in the midterms, I think that's, he's no longer useful. Let's just say. And so I don't mean killing or anything like that. I just think he's old. He's just old, Scott, as you said, biology is undefeated. Okay, Scott, give us, I have one more, but let me, well, actually, I'll do mine. I would like to see in politics the shutting up of tech CEOs everywhere. I mean, when have we seen, like can you imagine the head of Lockheed behaving like Alex Carp did in that recent New York Times thing with our favorite Canadian, Andrew Ross Sorkin? He looked demented screaming on the

stage. Did you see that performance? Yeah. What was going on there? Well, they thought he was on cocaine. I don't know. He looked crazy. That's all I know. Like, who knows? They were making all kinds of cocaine jokes. But he is not. I don't believe that. A little of the Bolivian and marching powder? No, I just think he's just like that. My experience is he's just like that. Now you're getting a fucking taste of what I've had to listen to over the decades. But I think these people, like, if I see Jensen Wong in his stupid coat anymore, like when do we, when was the head of Lockheed around all this time. When was the head of, like, these people need to sit down and shut up for a little while. Like, seriously, they just can't stop making giant asses of themselves almost continually.

And so I would predict they need to shut up. They won't, but that's what I would like to happen. What is your prediction for, you have an interesting one about the predictions market? Yeah, so, well, one, I think the next bailout is coming. There was a bailout of the banks. Actually, that was a good idea. There was a bailout of the airlines, which was socialism and stupid. We should have let them go out of business, all these airline CEOs who used all their excess cash flow when things were good to do stock buybacks and collect $150 million in compensation. And then COVID hits, and we're all in this together. And they got bailouts. But the next bailout is going to be the bailout of Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella.

Basically, the S&P is now 40%. The Magnificent 10. Trump is only able to get away with the shit he's getting away with because the S&P is up 13%. So his entire presidency in our entire economy is now one big, giant bet on AI. There is no way they can keep up with these expectations. So what they will do is come to Washington hat in hand, and they will call it something else like a chips act, and they will have government-backed debt purchases of these chips and these data centers to prop up an AI market. Can we get Jensen Wong's leather coat in exchange? I should have it.

It's about to become a multi-trillion dollar leather coat. But, I mean, every industry now, the energy industry, 10% of the earnings call, mention AI. Financials, 1 in 5 earnings calls are now talking about it. And also, if you look at the biggest tech stocks, from peak to trough, Alphabet was down 65%, Microsoft 70%, meta lost three quarters of its value from 2021 to 2022. Apple lost 83% of its value in the dot-com implosion. Nvidia lost 90% in dot-com, Amazon lost 95% peak to trough. The problem is if these companies do what these companies do in a volatile environment,

the economy goes into a tailspin, and Trump is no longer allowed to bomb or to murder people in the water or send in a mass secret police into American towns. So he will decide to prop up this industry with what is effectively a bailout that will be positioned as growth but essentially the next bailout is coming. Polymarket and Kalshi, I just can't get over how genius these businesses are because you have the ultimate marketing, and that is whenever there's a big decision to be made

or a big issue, we're starting to look at what these companies think because they leverage... Except they can be so game, Scott. I'm so nervous about the gaming aspect and kind of the sick-ass. Like, that's bad how many kids have died in this shooting, that kind of stuff. Well, oh, no, there's bigger concern. Well, okay, first off, let's look at the opportunity for insider trading. It's getting down to, will this pitch be faster or slower than 90 miles an hour?

So, okay, Eric Adams. Will Eric Adams drop out of the race in the next seven days? And they say, oh, no, it's three to one he doesn't. If I'm Eric Adams and I'm eventually going to drop out, why don't I raise 10 million bucks and drop out the next day? And as a severance payment, collect $20 million. I mean, it's just, and the, the, The unfortunate thing is most of us don't have access to this insider information, so we are on the wrong end of a trade asymmetrically. And also, when states legalize gambling, and this is, it's not really gambling.

I like these things. I don't, I can't decide if I like these things or I don't like these things. I agree. Some of it's really interesting. At the same time, I'm like so easy to game, so easy to go sick, right? Well, and again, it's attempting to legitimize gambling. You're not investing here. You're gambling.

But at the same time, I just appreciate how powerful these businesses are. Also, I'm going to start incorporating either polymarket or Kalshi data into a lot of my media. I just think it's fascinating what the wisdom of crowds thinks. And if you look at these things, they are fantastic prediction engines. They usually get it, they usually get it right. Or now. Like, you know what I mean? It feels like so, I feel like the Russian mob is like, how shall we handle this?

Well, okay, along those lines, the majority of the bets and the New York may all right, came out of the Middle East. So you don't think they're going to start using it. Because if you say Mom Donnie is up 95%, that is really good for Mom Donnie. Yeah. And so why wouldn't you weigh in and start manipulating these things?

Anyways. Pay attention, people. There is, and also just the downside, first off, my mom was a docent at the Belagio Hotel, and she used to come. I love that word, docent. Go ahead. She used to come home armed with these fun facts,

And one of them was kind of sad is that gambling has the highest suicide rate. So one in seven men who gamble are addicted. It's got the highest suicide rate because if you develop an addiction of meth, people start to notice and they weigh in. You can leverage your home, spend your kid's college fund, and nobody knows. And people feel as if they have no way out. In addition, bankruptcies go up by a third the moment a state legalizes gambling. So there are some real externalities here.

But having said that, I am fascinated by these markets. it's going to be the vice of the year is it going to be the predictions market. And I also think that they will be two of the biggest. One or both of them is going to go public in 2026, and it's going to be one of the biggest, it's going to be one of the best IPOs of 26. These things are phenomena.

Can you see this going so fucking sideways? I'm going to bet on if Kara or Scott is going to die first, and then I'll kill you. Well, again, insider trading here. Or Lair, I'll have Lairor kill you, our producer, See what I mean? The opportunity for insider trade. And is it even insider trading?

How does sports betting, if you're a pitcher on your last leg here and you're about to not make any more money and you're finally up from AAA ball and you're not going to make any more money, you just have your brother in the stands go, pitch it slower than 90 miles an hour on this one, pitch it faster,

and you can probably walk away with another million bucks on that game. And I'm not even sure if it's illegal yet. I like that you go to sports and you don't go to murder, murder like I do. Yeah, I don't. I don't think there's cheaper ways to get someone killed probably.

I know, but everything's gamifying. But you want to talk about it's already impacting. Okay, Cesar's down 38% this year. Vegas, every Vegas company that's publicly traded is down between 19 and 38% this year because why? Oh, and by the way, I just love the fact that we've lost $4 billion in Vegas because Canadians are no longer going. But our manufacturing base has been absolutely reinvigorated. Jesus Christ, what fucking idiots. By the way, folks, 80% of people,

people don't want to be in manufacturing. You can't bring your dog to the factory floor. Anyway, where I was headed with this is, there's fewer people in Vegas because now Vegas is in you. Vegas is everywhere now. So you're really going to see these firm struggle, and you're going to see an enormous transition of capital. Yeah, though you can't get a massive breakfast bar.

That's true, for $2. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. We come back. Entertainment Predictions. Okay, Scott, next up, we're talking about media and entertainment. Last year, you appreciate it would be a banner year for podcasters. Let's listen to what I said about our favorite movie. Wicked for Good was amazing, I have to say.

It's a play? It's a movie. It's a sequel. It's like going to be an enormous thing. Oh, God, there's a sequel now? Yes. Make them stop. No, literally.

I think they should outlaw sequels. Huge box office this year. Yeah, it's not quite, it hasn't quite reached the first one, but yeah, it's huge. Just so you know, I think it's $375 million. Both those chicks are just fucking awful. That may be. I don't care. Oh, my God, it's a helicopter.

We're in a quasi-demi, parasocial. Doesn't matter. And they weigh 45 fucking pounds. Yeah, they're great role models for 15-year-old. I know. That is an issue. Oh, my God. That is, I would say that is an issue worth discussing.

I don't usually like to talk about people's looks, but in that case. They're disappearing. All of them, the entire cast. It's really weird. Anyway, I agree. It's concerning. Let's say concerning. But let me say I was right.

You were never right about what's popular. About media? Oh, no. Except Pluribus. My prediction is that all World War II and color documentaries are the biggest media. I understand grants. But listen, you're right about Pluribus. Oh, my God.

Vince Gilligan. HDP, HDP, and John Cena. This is going in many weeks. It's HDP. I think I'm on it. Is that human growth? hormone? I mean, I have longer erections and a little stronger in the gym, but see your doctor. Human derived protein. You're not caught up, I guess.

Human what? Oh, this is this from your secret show on CNN? No, this is from, this is pleuribus. Oh, plurbus. Okay. People. Soil and green is people. Anyway, we're going to, by the time this airs, we'll know more. But let me just say, it's also a banner year for dyspeptic lesbians on television. So that's really good. Difficult lesbians are the trend. And I, I, And I sort of pioneered that. Anyway. Speaking of lesbians,

has Emily Radikowski asked about me? Not yet, not yet. No? Not yet. I'll let you know. I'll let you know. Okay. Anyway, probably sometime in...

She's going to play it that way. How about sometime in the 12th of never? All right. Scott, you've got a prediction about the future of Hollywood, and so do I. You go first. Okay. So short-form video and AI Meteor Strike Hollywood.

AI one, especially if the Ellison's get a hold of Warner. You have to wait. Seven minutes after the Fantastic Four just to get through the credits. More people worked on the Fantastic Four than work at Reddit and slightly fewer than Palantir. The means of production has to come way down, and AI is just going to, I mean, everybody is so sentimental for theaters. Theaters have not come back. Basically, theaters are down by a third since COVID. It just hasn't recovered.

You're also going to see, you know, 70% Americans tend to 24 years. old watch TV or movies on YouTube or TikTok. And then what's crazy is these short form video platforms. The Kids Diana Show has 137 million subscribers, which is I think more subscribers than Disney Plus. What's weird is that Meg Whitman and Jeff Katzenberg might have been right about short form video. They were just kind of ahead of their time. It didn't have the capital. But we have trained our brains to be so short form and dopah hungry that these short-form video series of three and six-minute little mini-episodes out of China seem to be taking off and getting real share. But back to the original one, AI is coming for

Hollywood and all the virtue signaling and how precious they are. It's not going to mean a fucking thing. Economics, to your point, and capitalism will win out here. But basically, AI, which everyone is expecting, is about to accelerate in terms of reducing the cost of the means of production in Hollywood and be, I think these short-form video platforms that I had not heard of before are about to make a real dent. And just some of the titles, my favorite titles of some of the people who worked on the Fantastic Four, Molly Cook was an assistant data wrangler. You know what, she's going to call you.

That's important. That's important. They had a home economist. They had, I mean, it's just hilarious. art director, a junior petty cash buyer. Oh, no, no. Olivia Somery was a food stylist. Is it all women that you want to get out of work?

But go ahead. Have a man. Have a man. Is there a man in your list? I don't see gender. I'm not looking at this and going man or woman. I think you're right about both sex and race. Food styling is also important just so you know.

But it will be all A-Ied just so you know food stylists. They're going to AI this shit. But I would agree with you on both these things. You know, it's interesting. Many years ago, there was a show called Quarter Life. You've never heard of it. The guy who did 30-something, Ed Zwick. I think that's, he did it. Right, 30-something. But he had a show that was, I think, YouTube only called Quarter Life, and it was short 15-minute shows. And at the time it failed. But, boy, I remember thinking, this is the way. You know, and same thing with Jeff Katzenberg. Like, it was right. It just was wrong at the time. But this Quarter Life was really, go back and find it if you can. because it was an attempt at short-form video drama over these quarter life was people who were 25 years old, and they were all attractive and fucking each other. But it was really interesting, and it was far too early for people's tastes to get there.

But now it has. I watch mostly short-form video now, I have to say. Where do you watch it? Oh, on threads or Instagram, usually. I don't like TikTok. It's too, ugh. But I like the pace of Instagram, I have to say. Anyway, if I'm watching a short-form video, and they're quite good.

The sexiest thing you can say in your 30s is, I already took tomorrow off. Anyway, I have a prediction. It's sort of dovetails because of what Scott was talking about and because the economics just don't work. They don't work, everybody. Hollywood consolidation, just, you know, not just AI, but how everything is made is going to, with these new owners, and there's going to be more deals. And I know you're all horrified about Netflix, but get ready. my friends. It's so much going to happen. And there are questions of creativity and how people get paid, but there's just going to be less people to make it. And it's the end. This is that

moment for Hollywood. It happened already, but it's really happening now. And you're going to see enormous consolidation. The government could push it back as much as you want. But you're not farmers, by the way. You're not getting $12 billion in bailouts the way Trump will do that. you will not get bailouts, you will just be, get gone. And so I think this, this Netflix Warner thing is inevitable paramount. If it doesn't get is going to have to merge. Comcast is going to have to buy something else. Disney's got to move.

You know, and all the tech companies, if they want to stay in this area, need more stuff for AI. Imagine a world like Scott talks about this AI meter. Like, hey, I like West Wing. I'd like another season. Like, they can do that. They will be able to do that. And it will be at first stupid and then later be,

very good. And so you're going to see all manner of stuff having to do with AI being fed into all these things. And, you know, even though the paramount people can't give specifics of what's happening because they haven't thought of it, they just like to say the word AI a lot over and over again, there are going to, this is an industry ripe for this kind of thing. Too bad. I'm sorry, I feel bad for you, but thanks for the movies. And by the way, Wicked, 375 million. Ricked. Okay. Streaming has sort of been the zeitgeist of my life. It used to be Netflix and Chile, And now at my age, it's HBO Max and lower your expectations.

You know, I think you're online a lot more. You watch a lot of short-form video. I can tell. I do. I do. You know, you put them out a lot. And so do I, 100%. I can't sit for a show now. I like to watch them on TV.

I have a harder time. Although, again, Pluribus, I love it. Oh, my God. I've been forced to watch the worst program in the world. It's with Shiv from Succession about a kidnapping. Oh, I heard that was good. Oh, it's awful. These people are so awesome.

It's awful. It's all these rich people. It's like a chamber of commerce show on Chicago. Everyone in Chicago is rich and has amazing homes. It's like after Chicago. Okay, but who forced you? Who has put you a cock or orange in front of the TV? Someone keeps putting it on my fucking TV and I get drawn into it. Don't watch it. And then I got sucked into another one, the evil or the devil inside of me where I got to give it. Claire Dane's. The beast in me. Her chin should be nominated for an Oscar. Her chin starts vibrating when she's emotional. It's literally like, it is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is. It is is such her go-to. I love it. I love Claire. Everything Claire Dave does fantastically, yeah. Anyway, anyhow, I'm so sorry you're being forced to watch these things.

All right, Scott, one, someday you will be, actually. That's another trend. That would be for next year. One more quick break, and then it's time for predictions, host's choice. Okay, Scott, now is the time

to make and purchase on whatever we want. The world is our oysters. By the way, send oysters, we love them. I'm going to go first, okay? I'm going to go first. As I said, as you noted, you've got Claire Daines on The Beast to Me. You got Rhea Seahorn in Pluribus. And there's a new hunting wife's coming.

They're not just difficult. Lesbians are murderous, okay? There's going to be so much lesbian content. Angry lesbians with guns, angry lesbians who are upset. angry lesbians who are fighting the hive mind. I just, this is a trend that I like. I like lesbians running shit and taking names and shutting people down. And I love, Rhea Seahorn on as Carol.

Hello, Carol, is my favorite character of all time. Everyone's like, oh, she's such a ass, and I'm like, I love her. So more angry, dyspeptic, go fuck yourself, lesbians for 2026. That's how I feel. Thank you. I'm a big fan of streaming video with lesbian content. Well, go watch it because it's sexy as fuck, let me just say. Yes, it is.

What's it called? Who's in it? Malin Ackerman, Brittany Snow. There are guns. There is a lot of lesbian sex. The way kind you like is I'll see it twice. I'm just saying, angry, gun-totin, dyspeptic, fuck the hive mind. I don't like AI lesbians are the trend of 2026.

Thank you. All right. Mine's not as cool as this. Best investment you don't have access to is TikTok. Oh, yeah. Essentially. Did you get steers? Have you gotten in there yet? Well, no, I'm a Democrat. So it's going to Dell, some Saudi person.

I forget who it's going to, but it's not going to anyone who wants it or anyone who's a Democrat. But they're basically, Trump's forcing them to sell it for $14 billion. If you think about the fact that 50% of the earnings have to go back to China, it's effectively evaluation of 28 billion. If you assign the same multiple that you would assign to alphabet or meta, it's worth $120 billion. So effectively, these guys are going to buy something and then get 3 to 400% return

within 12 months. This is pure socialism meets cronyism, meets autocracy. But again, it's happening. But you know, it's unfair for the Ellison's not to get everything. Anyway, sorry. That's a good one. So you won't get any. There's no way you can squoge your way in there.

You usually scoot your way in. No. Not on this one. Really? Yeah, no, you can. It's only for, like, friends at Trump. Literally. Dells and, yeah. Potts.

Yeah, you don't, you don't have access. Amazing. You don't even get a little bit? No, I'm allowed to be on TikTok. I'm starting to fucking hate TikTok, by the way. Me too. I got to tell you, that's another prediction. I think Mark Zuckerberg, it makes a better product.

I hate to say. You like threads and reels more? I like them. They're very pleasing. They're very pleasant. I have a great time. I find news. I still like Blue Sky, too.

But I have to say, I like it. I'm on Blue Sky almost never now. I know. Because they yell at you a lot. They yell at you. Do they yell at me? God, thank God I'm not on there. I can't handle that right now.

Yeah, they yell at you. It's the left yelling at you over Twitter. The right is actually threatening. I'm not on Twitter. Is it really, I assume they're not even talking about us because I'm not over there. no they are they i dropped in the other i was like oh you fuckers like oh go away we don't care about you we broke up with you uh so just back to tictock u s at the price that these investors

these republican donors are getting it it valuing ticot u.s at less than this company called extra space storage 7-11 carnival cruises ryanair or kellogg's so wow what a great deal right And if you look at this thing, again, if you just do the math here, it's just insane what they're going to get to buy this thing at. Anyways, I'm really pissed off about this. Let's please, by all means, give Warner the Ellisons because they don't get enough. Their U.S. ad revenue is $12 billion. You get a 10x multiple price of sales of Alphabet, which isn't growing as fast as TikTok U.S. It's worth $120 billion, and they're getting it for $28.

These grifters. These grifters. Scott's Maddie's not in on it, really. Yeah, that's right. Anyway, Scott, that is the show. Your instructions are to go watch Hunting Wives. You'll be happy. Happy New Year to everybody.

We've had a great year this year at Pivot, and we love you, and we look forward to more in 2026. Please read us out. Today's show was produced by Lara Naman, Zohey, Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Christine Driscoll. Ernie Mertrudeau. Ernie Mildernerner, edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Bros. Miserra and Dan Shalana, and Chuck Kroas, Vox Media's executive producer podcast.

make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Box Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at NYMag.com slash pod. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things, tech and business. producing O-DU. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier, CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part, O-DU replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try O-D-O-4-free at O-D-O-D-O-O-O-com.

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