Pivot - Pivot Predictions Special: 2022

Episode Date: December 14, 2021

Kara, Scott and a handful of Friends of Pivot make some predictions about what 2022 has in store for the Metaverse, China, Apple and more. In this episode, we hear predictions from Co-Anchor of CNBC��s Squawk Box Andrew Ross Sorkin, LightShed Partners’ Rich Greenfield, Senator Amy Klobuchar, author Cory Doctorow, WSJ Senior Personal Technology Columnist Joanna Stern, NBC News Senior Business correspondent Stephanie Ruhle, NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran, author Sheera Frenkel, and actor George Hahn. Send us your Listener Mail questions through our site, nymag.com/pivot and use Yappa to leave a video or audio message. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Hi, everyone. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. old. I also called you a baller. You know what I was really paranoid was I was going to say you were taking a picture with the sole women's Olympic basketball team. And I thought the women next to you would literally kick my ass if I revealed their real, their true ages. So I do have a filter. I do have a filter. It was very nice. So Scott, are you okay? Cause man of the year is Elon Musk. Are you doing okay? You mean Kim Jong-un? Wait.

I mean, seriously, Cara? First off, first off. I'm very happy for you, Elon. Go ahead. Sorry. I like him too.

Hello, Access Journalism. Hello, Kiss My Ass. I like talking to him. I think he's a man of accomplishment. He can be very problematic. There's a one in three chance that the wealthiest man

in the world will be person of the year because we have this gross idolatry of the dollar. But look, the reality is, not that I don't know if you're really asking, the reality is it's probably a correct pick because he has tremendous influence, tremendous awareness, but it marks the age. It marks an age of technological brilliance. It marks an age of possibility. It marks an age of wealth. And it also marks an age of a lack of grace and a lack of respect for the commonwealth and also an abuse of platforms to try and intimidate other people. I mean, it's actually probably a correct pick for a lot of good. Is there anyone else you would have picked? a correct pick for a lot of good. Is there anyone else you would have picked? Well, I made a prediction I was wrong.

I thought it was going to be Francis Halligan or the couple from the Turkish couple that helped develop the vaccine. So it's another prediction I got wrong. Yeah. But as I thought about it, it probably does mark the age. Yeah.

All right. Well, here we are. You know what it also means? What? I mean, I like to think it also means that Mark Benioff, in fact, even though he owns time has gives them total editorial license because there's no way mark benioff would have picked elon musk mark benioff is very very concerned about citizenship and i can't imagine he had some other things in mind i suspect i suspect yeah what do you think you know

i think it's there's there's a lot of people wouldn't, this has been such a hard year. I would go vaccine related or coronavirus related. So, but maybe people are tired of that. You know, it's not, he's within the realm. with these things. I want to see, I haven't seen the list of people who were close. They have always have like 10 other people. I probably would have picked something related to the vaccine

would be my guess, you know, or do something kind of unusual and odd, like, like a TV show or something, like something movie, but I guess that really

hasn't been streaming would be something I might do. I don't know. I don't know. It's anyway. Anyway, should we try and relate this back to Scott?

Because that's really the key here. Yes, please let's do that. So I have a man of the year, a person of the year story. One of the runners up in like 1994 or 95 was a guy named Bob Swanson, who was the CEO of Genentech. And I forget like the personal computer one person of the year, which made no sense. Oh, I thought it did. I don't know. Call it a thing of the year then. made no sense, but. Oh, I thought it did. Oh, I don't know. Call it a thing of the year then.

Anyways, so I was in a group called YEO that was, you got a mentor who was in YPO because I was a 27-year-old entrepreneur. And my mentor that I was paired with was Bob Swanson. And the first thing he did was he showed up and he said, and this is a fairly busy guy, right? CEO of Genentech. And he says, I just want to follow you around.

And I was running and had founded a company called Profit Brand Strategy. And the guy followed me around all day, just listened and said, and like at the end of the day, just sat me down and said, you need to be more measured with your comments. It's more important to be effective, not right. He just gave me so much great advice. And I thought about what a generous man to just like follow you around for a day when you're 28, 28 year old CEO. Anyways, two weeks later, diagnosed with a glioblastoma, passed away nine months later. But it really, a very, like not only an impressive, successful person, but a very generous man. Anyways.

You know, I think this thing is sort of a, it used to be such a big deal. It's person of the year now anyway, but it's, you know, it used to be a much bigger thing than it was, I guess. You know, it used to be something special. And now it's so, there's so many different awards and this and that.

I mean, the different people who won it, Greta Thunberg, Donald Trump, Angela Merkel. How dare you? Mark Zuckerberg. How dare you? Mark Zuckerberg. How dare you? Anyway, it's just, I think it probably doesn't have as much pull. Everyone sort of, it doesn't have as much pull as it used to, I suspect. In any case, speaking of predictions that you got right and wrong,

this is the end of year prediction show. Today we'll gaze into our crystal ball and try to forecast what's to come in 2022. And to help us, we've reached out to some of our friends at Pivot who can shed light on what's coming in 2022. Is it the metaverse, China, Apple, all of the above? We'll find out and we'll give you some predictions of our own for the upcoming year. So let us ponder the orb. Ponder the orb. Are you talking dirty to me again?

No, I think it's the producers are trying to get us to say something dirty. And you did. They always cut out my dirty stuff. They always cut out my dirty stuff. But here's the thing. Every. You know it.

You know it. We've saved you from so many cancellations. It's fantastic. Anyway, our first prediction comes from one of our BFFs, Andrew Ross Sorkin, co-anchor of CNBC's Squawk Box. Let's hear it. Hey, Karen Scott, it's Andrew Ross Sorkin here. So my prediction of 2022, well, it's all about China and human rights in a way that we've never seen before. Western companies are going to be

grappling with China and human rights in a way that they haven't had to grapple before. Of course, so much of Silicon Valley has already left China, but many companies remain. Apple, Elon Musk's Tesla. And this year, in large part because of the Beijing Winter Olympics, the globe is going to be exposed to so many of the issues that are taking place there. And at a time when ESG has become such a prominent component of investing, it is going to challenge these companies to rethink their stances. It is potentially going to create hearings in Washington and elsewhere. And we are going to see lots of headlines and hard decisions that need to be made. of headlines and hard decisions that need to be made.

The Canadian, weigh in. What a good voice he has. He has such a nice voice, doesn't he? I kind of just believe anything he says. Very handsome online. Very handsome. He's handsome. He sounds handsome. He does sound handsome.

He, in fact, is handsome. Let me say, I think this is interesting. I don't feel like, you know, tech companies have been in and out of China, Yahoo, LinkedIn, Google, but I don't think, I'm not going with this one. I think that even though there's a lot of anti-Chinese talk out there, and obviously the story on Tim Cook's secret deal between Apple and China has written about, got a lot of attention. Forced labor, obviously, is a major issue. I just don't know if it's not going to be business as usual. I don't know. Scott, what do you think? I think he's half right. I think there will be a lot of headlines because the stories are dramatic and there is a real inconsistency. And we

still have this delusion that the CEOs of American companies, Better Angels, are going to show up. And we're hoping that they fill, and some have filled the void. There's Ken Frazier and Ken Chenault. There are some, Mark Benioff, there's some CEOs who are filling this kind of vacuum or trying to address the externalities. I'm not sure Americans really care. And I know that's a terrible thing. If you think about, I bet there's more stories about Didi's potential delisting than there are about the internment camps or the Uyghurs. I just, I think Americans talk a big game. I think we've lost a lot of moral authority in the world when we have our own insurrections and our own income inequality and our own vaccine hesitance. income inequality and our own vaccine hesitance. I'm not sure that China's all that concerned with what we care or say. And I don't know if Americans, I think Americans are still going to buy iPhones,

regardless of where Apple manufactures them. I think there'll be a lot of headlines. I guess that will perhaps increase pressure. But I think it's optimistic to think that big American companies will take that sort of stand and withdraw from China. None of these companies we've mentioned withdrew from China, I think, because of what I call moral reasons. I think they withdrew because they— Well, Google did. It was spying. There was some—they had a long sort of flourish out of the country. But yeah, I agree with you.

Yeah. I hope he's right. I hope he's right. I hope he's right. I don't think he is. And also, quite frankly, Trump and what I'll call the lying and the corruption that was the Trump administration has lessened our moral authority around the world to ask anything of anybody. Which is ironic since Trump was quite anti-China in a lot of way although he also embraced them that was such a weird situation just so just the fact that their academic researchers estimate that the chinese government has placed more than one million people in into internment camps again we've had a history of that in this country um can you believe in this day

can you believe that it's an interesting thing it's just a question of what these as more light is shed on this which is very difficult in terms of reporting, it will be interesting of the idea of using forced labor. And there are some bills aimed at that, which would, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act would require U.S. companies to guarantee they do not use imprisoned or coerced workers from the predominantly Muslim region. And so we'll see. But that was an interesting one from Mr. Sorkin. Okay, up next is a prediction on streaming content from Rich Greenfield of Lightshed Partners. Hey, Cara and Scott, it's Rich Greenfield from Lightshed Partners in New York. Predictions for 2022. I think the big one that everyone should be focused on is Apple. And when I say Apple, I mean Apple's content moves. I think the big one that everyone should be focused on is Apple. And when I say Apple, I mean Apple's content moves. I think a lot of people have not taken Apple TV Plus terribly seriously.

And I think 2022 is going to be a real turning point for just how serious and how big and bold Apple's ambitions are. Everyone knows Ted Lasso, The Morning Show. But there is so much more content coming. There's a movie called Killers of the Flower Moon, DiCaprio, De Niro, Scorsese directing. Animation, they're working with Skydance. You probably remember John Lasseter from Pixar. He's producing four animated features with a 1,000-person animation studio. If you haven't seen the animated short Blush,

it gives you a great preview of what's to come for Apple's animation ambitions. But movies, TV series, animation, Apple TV Plus is playing to win, and not enough people are paying attention. Well, that's interesting. So a competitor to Netflix. It's interesting because I just,

I'm watching The Morning Show right now, which I like. I know everyone else doesn't, but I do. I think it's's interesting. So a competitor to Netflix. It's interesting because I just – I'm watching The Morning Show right now, which I like. I know everyone else doesn't, but I do. I think it's really interesting. Beautifully done, by the way. I mean, in terms of money. Like, you can feel the money pouring off of it. That's exactly right. And Ted Last was obviously a surprise.

And I was – to get to it, I go through Apple Plus to get – I bought Apple Plus to get to the site. But there was not anything on there I wanted to watch except that. That is not the case with Netflix and other, and even Disney, I can always find some old like Marvel movie to look at for five minutes. But, and we watch Sesame Street on there, which is interesting for Clara, but I, they'd have to put a lot more content in here. And I'm, I don't know. We'll see. If he says they're coming, they're coming and I will use it. I definitely will shift over if that's the case. What do you think? Apple has proven one thing and that is, and so has Amazon Prime, that people underappreciate the power of culture. And HBO has consistently produced more with less. Their budgets are dwarfed by Netflix much less Apple. And Apple is spending, I think,

approximately the same amount as HBO, maybe even more. And quite frankly, the best they can come up with is Murphy Brown on Game of Thrones budgets called The Morning Show. And what HBO has been able to accomplish, another example, Florida is a perfect example of money doesn't translate to cooler taste. Walk into the most expensive homes in Florida and you think, wow, it's really frustrating that people with this much money can have such ridiculously bad taste. Yeah. And Apple TV is proving that even billions doesn't guarantee the magic and mystery of great storytelling. Because other than Ted Lasso, which, by the way, cheered me up after that fucking Elon Musk of the Year tweet this morning. I watched the Ted Lasso Christmas party Instagram stories from Jason Sudeikis.

That made me happier. That made me happier. Right. That's one show. But anyways, Apple TV Plus so far, I mean, here's some data. Okay, they have about a $7 billion budget. And they've got, what's different is they've gone vertical, which is interesting and very Apple and smart. But they have the greatest churn.

They have a monthly churn rate of 16%. So they have the greatest churn. Yeah, I only got it to finish the morning show and then I'm canceling it. That's what I'm doing. And it's also only accessible to Apple users. So they've basically said they're kind of ignoring the 70% of Android. But Apple TV Plus is really a testament to just how, in my opinion, I think it highlights just how incredible HBO is. But it's not, and here's the thing, Kara, it doesn't fucking matter.

This company makes so much money, that's $7 billion. If it gives them any point of differentiation, if Tim Cook gets any more opportunity, if he gets to go to the Academy Awards, if people associate the goodwill, a little bit of the goodwill they have for AFC Richmond and Ted Lasso, and any of that spills over to Apple that covers over the fact that they're manufacturing in China to our previous story, it's worth $7 billion. And it goes to the notion of content. Content has been featurized. Yeah, but look what we're talking about right now.

HBO's Succession, right? That's what we're talking about this morning. You know it. You know it, girlfriend. And they're really, people love it. Like, you couldn't see it. Now, Ted Lasso, they do like, but constantly HBO has shows on that you're like, that show, that show.

Same thing with Netflix. The same thing with Netflix. I have to say both of them. Mayor of Easton. But here's the thing. HBO does it on a quarter of the budget. Yeah. So we'll see. We will see if they can do that. Jennifer Lawrence Theranos movie is going to be on Apple TV+. I will definitely buy it for that month to watch it. There's this thing called churn and return. That's what I am. You know, I'll pay for it one month. Essentially, it's like paying for a movie thing. Apple's doing the We Crash documentary starring Jared Leto, Anne Hathaway,

and Bill Alcorn as Scott Galloway. That's right. That's right. People playing me on TV. Who would play you? Who's playing you? The guy, Dollar Bill from Billions. Oh, cool.

Holly Hunter. Super nice man. Super nice man. I'm going to have a party, a screening party, and I'm going to invite him and you. Oh. And we'll come up with another list of 100 people. Okay, that would be great. You know what's interesting, though?

You seem very excited. Could you seem a little bit more excited? I don't like parties. You just wrote me off there. I have to wear pants. It's another, I've got to put, do I have to wear pants? I'll invite the basketball team from the Seoul Olympics. Okay.

All right, I'll have them there. Pants is my thing. Like, oh, pants. Okay. Pants. So, let me just say it's really i think these are going to continue to be competitive no matter what i went to see west side story on saturday night and oh how was that it was fantastic it was beautiful see it in imax theater do you know how

many people were in the theater and why amanda decided to come with the baby because there were four people in the theater in this massive imax theater four people crazy i love imax imax fantastic movie for a hot minute it's not making any money because the olds don't want to go see west side story with the covid and um i just am like it doesn't really matter like this is a beautiful i'm so sorry this is a beautiful movie by steven spielberg the the book is wonderful the actors are by um tony kushner The actors are astonishing. There's an ingenue they picked for Maria, who is out of 30,000 people. Fantastic.

Rita Moreno's in it. Everything fantastic. Four people on a Saturday night. Just saying. It was just bad. And I wanted to watch it in the theater, but everything else I watched at home. They aren't. They aren't.

They're all new people, and they're all fantastic. Every single watch at home. They aren't. They aren't. They're all new people and they're all fantastic. Every single one of them. They don't have Ryan Gosling dancing. I mean, they gotta get the stars. Every single one of them

was amazing and all of them got a lot of time. Anyway, still, I was sort of like, wow, this isn't gonna work out

too well for Disney on this one. You got it from 20th Century Fox. Anyway, so it's the trend towards it so it doesn't hardly matter and you will churn and return essentially. So we'll see how that goes. And it doesn't matter.

But this is how everyone talks about the channels, but it's the format that I think is changing, too. And in the last month, I've done conversations. My agent has set me up with these kind of baller producers and filmmakers to talk about the future of media. And my view is, and we said this about Dune, and I think they should have done it with West Side Story. The greatest talent in the world right now is so stuck in this format of a 100-minute film and trying to spend $100 million to put butts in seats. I think West Side Story should have been an eight-part series

run on Apple TV Plus or something. Because there's just no way I'm going to see it. It's going to come and go. It is beautiful in a big thing. Beautiful in the theater. This one, it's the first one I'm like, this needs to be in the theater, but nobody was in the theater. It just may be a kind of movie that's never going to happen again, or not for now. All right, Scott, next up, we have a couple of predictions from Senator Amy Klobuchar. Oh, gangster. Gangster in the house. Hi, Cara. Hi, Scott. Amy Klobuchar.

My predictions for next year. In the words of the mayor of Duluth, you want to start out with the Duluth mayor, we see the lighthouse on the horizon. It sounds better than the light at the end of the tunnel. I see us getting through this pandemic. Why? Because Americans are getting vaccinated and boosted and people really want to get moving again. So that's my first prediction.

My second one is that the work that we're doing to shore up the economy and the long-term work we're doing to make sure that we've got infrastructure going and broadband and workers getting trained is going to make a difference. broadband and workers getting trained is going to make a difference. I don't know how many times I said on that presidential campaign trail that we're not going to have a shortage of sports marketing degrees. By the way, you're very lucky if you have a sports marketing degree and have a job. Congratulations. But we're not going to have a shortage of those. We're going to have a shortage of everything from healthcare workers to plumbers to electricians to people who work in the trades. And so we've got to try to focus students and people who are looking for work into areas where we know there are jobs. So that's got to be a part of next year. Finally, something near and dear to your hearts, tech. I think you're going to see the work on tech intensify

from the people that have been put into the agencies to the resources that's going out to those agencies so they can enforce the laws. I'm personally proud of my non-discrimination bill that makes sure that we've got some rules of the road in place on tech that hasn't been regulated in any way for decades. My group of authors is what Samantha Bee called the Ocean's Eleven of co-sponsors. So, hopefully, we will pull off a miracle and get some bills passed as well. That's my plan. That's a lot, as my daughter likes to say. So, happy new year, everyone. Thanks, guys. Wow. Could she be president right now?

What do you think? I love this woman. I know. Do you think she'll let us come to the White House when she's president? Do you think she'll let us? No, I try to be very transparent about my politics. And the people I'm supporting for president in 2024 are number three, Michael Bennett, number two, Pete Buttigieg, and number one is Amy Klobuchar. I put out a tweet, Hillary Clinton is doing a masterclass, which I thought was kind of

interesting, but I loved Hillary Clinton. And one of the things I think you have to think about with these people that have very important jobs, probably the most important job, is how smart are they? Do they do the work? And how competent are they? And I always thought Hillary Clinton checked all three of those boxes, and I never understood the animus towards her. And Amy Klobuchar also checks all three of those boxes, and I hope that the public doesn't have the same kind of gag reflex. No, there's not the same Bill Clinton problems attached.

But she does the work, super smart. And with respect to what she's talking about, look, she touched about vaccines. We're at about 61%, fully 65%. But, okay, this is where we are. We're on par with Turkey and the Czech Republic, and we're behind Thailand, Mongolia, and Lithuania. And we're 30% behind places like the UAE and Portugal. And the unvaccinated are holding back our economy. We have a fifth wave. I want to be clear that the CDC hugely fucked up by saying things like,

you don't need a mask or this will end with vaccines. But the reality is the pandemic has largely gone endemic for people with vaccines. The hospitals are totally filled up with the unvaccinated, which is shutting down our economy and still getting in the way of us getting on with our lives. All right. So I'm going to take on the workers thing. I think she's right. I've been actually trying to get different workers. It's very, very hard around the house. 4.4 million workers quit in September 2021.

As we said, the reassessment. Skilled trade workers are in demand. The home building industry needs 61,000 new hires every month for the foreseeable future. Industries that have so many jobs. All these go to a restaurant. Anyone go in a restaurant anywhere, food, hospitality, retail, you can see they have the highest number of job openings. They have the lowest pay and benefits. Then there's a lot of people who are dealing with long COVID and can't return to work, which is interesting.

Another thing we don't pay enough attention to is the implications of COVID that we sort of pretend and put in the back. So there are a lot of opportunities here to train people and move them into new areas that are better for them, better benefits and things like that. And I think these bills are very important rather than just – and I don't think the COVID relief was a handout, but this is actually moving forward to creating long-term sustainable jobs. I still am a proponent, just like many people are of a form of UBI. I did a great interview with Rutger Bregman, who's written a book called Humankind. You know, it's venture capital for regular

people. Why not? Rich people get it all the time, get chances. But they call it a handout when it's to other people as if they can't do something with the money. So I'm in agreement with Senator Klobuchar. I think, I hope there's going to be a bill. Well, I doubt that myself, but we'll see.

It's a tech bill. It comes down to a mentality. In the U.S., we have a Hunger Games mentality where we think that our kid is exceptional and going to end up at Harvard and go on to run a hedge fund or be Mark Zuckerberg. And the reality is our best universities, which are transformational,

are engaged in a rejectionist culture where they see themselves as Birkenbags and not as public servants. And in Europe, they have recognized that there needs to be other great pathways into the middle class. And in Europe, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland have always seen vocational training as central to this.

Half of the German population, 47%, has some sort of formal vocational qualification. In the U.S., it's 5% because we see those jobs at plumbing and electrician where you can only make $200,000 a year is somehow a disappointment. And we have no investment in people. We say, well, you either get on a path to being Mark Zuckerberg or Ray Dalio, or we don't want to invest in you. And I think that the vocational training in micro-certification has to be a key component if we're going to start or renew our commitment to the middle class. Absolutely. And there's plenty of jobs everywhere. You know, I am thrilled my son has worked all year in a retail job.

You know, he does, he washes dishes, he carries things, he does cooking, he does, I think he's learned more in this year and gotten more skills than any college can hand him. And he's going back to college. You know, I see how important that is. I think he does. But I can't tell you how much experience he's gotten in what is essentially a vocational job in a way, you know. It's such, it's so important to get people trained in these areas so they can have, not

earn tiny amounts of money and have no benefits, et cetera, et cetera. I think it's really important that we bring up. I've gotten to know our rug cleaner because I have dogs. So we have this like super nuclear service rug cleaner that comes out about five times a week and I've gotten to know the guy.

He's probably like, ah, the Galloways. I should just put him on retainer. It's not just about young people in the middle class. This guy is a 65-year-old guy. He used to be a pilot. That industry went to shit for him. And he's like, I'm sick of this. I'm sick of not being away from my family. And he bought a van and a franchise and got really good at basically getting all sorts of substances out of all sorts of materials. And I kind of did the back of the hand math. I think he makes about 150 or 200 grand a year. And living in Florida, you can live a pretty nice life. And I thought, and the nice thing is he was with, he had with him a young man of color

who looked like about all of 19, who was watching everything he did. And I thought that there just needs to be more of this. There needs to be more investment from baby boomers to younger generation. And I was just a very big fan. It just got me thinking, like, how come we can't institutionalize this? This is good. Good for him. Good for us. Good for the planet.

A hundred percent. Okay, Scott, next up, author Cory Doctorow on what's to come for the FTC in 2022. Hey, Scott and Cara, this is Corey Doctro, science fiction novelist, activist, blogger, special advisor to the Electronic Frontier Foundation. And here is my prediction for 2022. I think that this year, we're going to see corporations continue their assault on the Federal Trade Commission and its stated intent to reduce the number of anti-competitive mergers. What they've been doing is throwing so many mergers at the FTC that it can't process them all, a kind of blitzkrieg strategy.

And what I think is going to happen is that the FTC is going to take a couple of these and try and make an example of them. Maybe they'll take one that's in the offing and one that's already gone through, and they're going to go back and they're going to say, all right, you got past us before we could take a good look at you, but we took that look anyway. We've decided that what you did was illegal and we're going to unwind that merger and we're going to do it no matter how long it takes and no matter how much it costs you. And that's going to be a message to everyone who's thinking, well, I might be able to squeak in under the wire before the new more stringent

standards come in. And I think it's going to shake investor confidence in firms whose growth strategy is based on access to the capital markets and buying their competitors rather than making stuff that we like. That's both a prediction and maybe a wish. I hope you have a happy new year and I'll talk to you in 2022. I love that Corey Doctorow. He does a lot of things. I think that's right. I think he's right. I think, you know, I think there's needs.

Lena Kahn's been relatively quiet. She's the head of the FTC. And I do think that that's a great strategy to do more with less and make examples and do one that's happened and one that's happening. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has vowed to use every tool at our disposal, including litigation, to combat the FTC's antitrust agenda. They're trying to find out stuff from her email.

They did a FOIA request. They cannot regulate with the wave of mergers. 2021 was the biggest year for M&A ever. Google has demanded that Jonathan Cantor over at the DOJ, head of DOJ antitrust, recuse himself. This is one of their tactics. So they're trying to get around. Everyone's trying to get around antitrust legislation. I think this is a great prediction. I think he's correct. What about you?

Well, you're both exactly right. we have fallen into this cold comfort, this delusion that when the PR people who have increased by 300% at big tech pretend to give a good goddamn about the Commonwealth, and we believe them. And our job is to fund and support the greatest entity, the greatest force of good in history, the US government, such that it can serve as a ballast for corporations. Corporations are a fantastic vehicle for wealth creation, but they will continue, their vision will get blurred when it's raising money, and they will say and do anything to try and overrun government when it suits their interests. And just some data here, the FTC, which is a ballast for anti-competitive environments through mergers that create runaway monopolies and duopolies.

In fiscal year 2010, there were 22 enforcement actions for 1,166 reported mergers, which means that one out of every 53 mergers was challenged. And in fiscal year 2019, there was one less enforcement action, 21, across 2,100 mergers, meaning that only one in 100 actions. And so you'd say, well, maybe the actions aren't as threatening. The actions have become more threatening to a healthy business ecosystem because they're about gigantic acquisitions that create data monopolies using network effects where other people can't compete. So, we are where we put our money. And do we want to see a continued overrun of government? So, what's really going to be interesting to see what Khan does,

what, she's been very quiet. I'm going to interview her at some point for Sway, but she, what she does is, and with Cantor now in his position, we'll see what happens. They do have, they've got to move relatively soon and they have to be incredibly bold. Doing things around the edges is not going to work here.

So, Corey, we hope this works. We hope this works. But unless they're Rambo, unless we give them the ammunition to fight here, they're going to have a tough time. Yeah, there are some bills to do that, but they certainly need to get out there and show some teeth to these companies. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, more predictions from our friends of Pivot. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting,

crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night. And honestly, that's not what it is anymore. That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter. These days, online scams look more like crime syndicates than individual con artists. And they're making bank. Last year, scammers made off with more than $10 billion. It's mind-blowing to see the kind of infrastructure

that's been built to facilitate scamming at scale. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of scam centers all around the world. These are very savvy business people. These are organized criminal rings. And so once we understand the magnitude of this problem, we can protect people better. One challenge that fraud fighters like Ian face is that scam victims sometimes feel too ashamed to discuss what happened to them. But Ian says one of our best defenses is simple.

We need to talk to each other. We need to have those awkward conversations around what do you do if you have text messages you don't recognize? What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive? Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam, but he fell victim and we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to work together to protect each other. ever lead anywhere and you're making content that no one sees and it takes forever to build a campaign well that's why we built HubSpot it's an AI powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you tells you which leads are worth knowing and makes writing blogs creating videos and posting

on social a breeze so now it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Scott, we're back with more predictions. Next up, we have Joanna Stern, Senior Personal Technology Columnist at the Wall Street Journal. She's also a friend of mine. She's got a prediction on the metaverse. Hey, Karen, Scott, it's me, Joanna Stern

from the Wall Street Journal here in 2021, where tech people cannot stop talking about the metaverse. In 2022, I'm going to make a bold and brave prediction. They will still be talking about the metaverse. For the most part, I expect the year to basically inch along in that space. But I do expect it to be a big year for VR and AR hardware. do expect it to be a big year for VR and AR hardware. Facebook, I mean Meta, has Project Cambria,

and that's a headset that's due out later next year. It's a high-end version of the Oculus Quest with new sensors that will make our avatars seem more human and lifelike. Yeah. And then there are strong reports now that Apple will put out a virtual reality headset with augmented reality features next year. So yeah, that's my prediction. No real mainstream progress on the metaverse, but lots of talk and buzz and movement for the tech crowd.

Love you guys. Oh, she seems very nice. I love Joanna Stern. She's the best. She's an excellent person. Let's invite her to our We Crash documentary screening. Okay, good. Let's put her on the list.

Okay. So I like that it's ours now. I like that. I like that it's ours. Like you and I as hosts together, as co-hosts kind of thing. She's right. This stuff coming from Project Camry is really interesting. I still think it's not – regular people are not going to be using these things.

But when Apple moves into the virtual reality headset and especially augmented reality features, as you said, it could come in the form of the ear AirPods. Joanne, I think is correct. And she's been doing a ton of stuff in the metaverse. She spent 24 hours living in the metaverse for the Wall Street Journal. What does that even mean? She watched the Matrix 12 times? I guess. I can't wait to see it. I saw the previews for it. The Apple headset's going to cost upwards of $3,000. I think that kind of said it. And I think there is metaverse here with Snap and Niantic. Casey Newton wrote about it. So there, I think she's right about the headsets.

I think they're out of reach for most people. $3,000. I mean, come on. So the metaverse as envisioned by Mark Zuckerberg is the most overhyped technology since 3D printing. since 3D printing. There are already several forms of metaverses, whether it's Twitter or Fortnite or the App Store, in my opinion, is the closest thing we have to a metaverse right now.

And it just gives me huge comfort and joy that they're portaled into the metaverse. The Oculus will go down as one of the Lisa and the Palm times 100. It's just not going to work. So talk about, in general, the idea of these headsets and things like that, which she was talking about. Here's what tech doesn't get,

and what Chanel and Luxottica and, to a lesser extent but still, Persol and Warby Parker get. The shit you put on your face is a function of being more attractive to potential mates. And these things are prophylactic. You might as well say, hey, I'm really into magic and I drive a Mazda. No one wants near you. No one wants to have sex with you with this thing on your head. And the reason why the French continue to

inspire and delight and continue to dominate luxury is they have a sense for the architecture of the face and what colors, what smells make us more attractive. And tech has no, they have a sense for the architecture of the face and what colors, what smells make us more attractive. And tech has no, they have literally absolutely no fucking clue. Agreed. And name a tech product that increases the opportunity you're going to have a random sexual encounter. AirPods.

AirPods. They're kind of, remember they started off ugly. 100%. 100%. Great example. I like them. I like people wearing them. 100%.

But a $3,000 product, unless it's a luxury item, I'd be very curious to see the form factor on that. But the Oculus is ridiculous. Have you seen the ads for Oculus? They have a lot of them out now for Christmas. And they have people putting them on, and they're like, oh, looking good now. I'm like, no. Whip it out. Whip out your Oculus? There was one for Lady Gaga, and I was like oh please stop don't show people doing oculus you know doing those things in the real world because they look ridiculous like i don't know what they're thinking everyone's wearing a body suit and they're in good shape but i'm like you just rendered lady gaga is wearing an oculus no no that's it i wish she'd been the one that died and the star is born dancing to lady gaga anyway they're all incredible these ads are

literal they're like i think i ads are literal. They're like, I think I made fun of one. They were like, good looking. I'm like, what? Like, not good looking, like the opposite of good looking. Anyway, we'll see.

We'll see. I just, $3,000. Me with an Oculus on, I look like a defective Q-tip. I look like a Q-tip that was, like, had gone terribly wrong in the manufacturing. If you were wearing an Oculus,

I would just poke at you with a sword. That's what I would do if you were wearing an Oculus, I would just poke at you with a sword. That's what I would do if you were wearing an Oculus. You wouldn't know where I was. Ignore everything. Facebook executives, you should go all in on the Oculus. This is a great idea for you. Invest more in the Oculus.

Well, we're going to get to that in a minute. But first, we have a prediction from NBC News senior business correspondent, Stephanie Ruhl, who you're calling the Supreme. Supreme Ruler. Supreme Ruler. Okay, let's get Stephanie. Hey there, Scott and Cara. This is Steph Ruhle. I would say my New Year's prediction is more like my New Year's hope. I'm ready for cancel culture to get canceled. I am ready for all the powerful forces out there, government, media, business, to stop monetizing and celebrating our divide and get practical because the majority of this country, they don't care about politics.

They don't want to be at war with each other. Every person out there for the most part wants to be financially secure, physically safe, socially free. The majority of this country is not in the extremes. However, we as influential bodies keep celebrating the extremes. In 2022, I sincerely hope we stop doing that. Our democracy is at risk. And I'd like to see every business, every person in government and the media actually figure out a way to celebrate the wins of America and get along. Like I get along with you two. Happy New Year. Merry Christmas.

Oh, Stephanie. I think she's correct. This is your song. This is your little song, Scott. Your little song and dance. I thought you were about to break into it's not cancel culture, it's accountability culture. But it is. Some things deserve scrutiny.

I think there's some very serious things going on and being about restricting voting laws, what's happening with Roe right now, the information in January 6th, to like smile and wave throughout it. I think that's not the appropriate response. And it gets mixed up with sort of this celebrity cancel culture thing where someone says the wrong thing. And people do pile on too much, 100%. But why mix them up? Like, I don't like mixing them up. Some things you do need to be dead serious about, even if it's, you know, a bummer. So I agree, we should try to get along better on the things we can get along with. We shouldn't just reach immediate anger at people over something, not have a, you know, I just, I posted something about Ryan Reynolds and Peloton did a very funny ad about Mr. Big not dying.

And they used it was very, very funny. And they use the Peloton instructor who's really just King. And someone was immediately like, oh, now Mr. Big's moved on to a younger woman. Well, that's just sucks. I'm like, no, no, it's it's part of the part of the joke. She's the one that was on the, like, and I literally was like, I said, do you ever like know what you're talking about before you mouth the frig off over this incredibly clever response to, you know, someone dying on your

product, essentially. And so people do that. But there are various serious things. There's two parts to it, and I think they get interspersed. So there, I didn't crap all over it. Yeah, we're being torn, the fabric of our society and other societies has been torn apart. And there's so many unfortunate, perfect storms. Social media encourages, you know, the algorithms are like, just find two people and say, fight, fight, fight. And the sequestering of people through isolation and COVID makes us less empathetic. When you're not going to the grocery store,

the movie theater to work, you have less empathy for the single mother, the person of a different economic or ethnic background. You know, even like, I think going to movies, Quentin Tarantino described it really well. He said, you're part of a collective. When you laugh and you share media together with other people, you begin to say, okay, these are people that may not look, smell,

or feel like me, but they love their children, they love media, and we have a connective tissue that makes us a community in America. And all of those connective tissues are being frayed. And also, you know, partisanship among politicians, even everything is trying to reduce the connective tissue. Gerrymandering, where you have hardened districts, far left or far right, because incumbents want to stay in the Senate until they're 110 fucking years old. So once they're in, they want to...

Once they get into the country... House members, representatives, not senators, but go ahead. Once they get into the country, they want to—once they get into the country— House members, representatives, not senators, but go ahead. Once they get into the country, they want to militarize the border and make it harder for—so everything, so many things are frying in this connective tissue. And I would like to see, what can we do to restore these connective tissues when there's so many forces in technology and with the pandemic that the bottom line is, they're absolutely dividing us. And I think it's a really big issue. She gave kind of the same talk at Benioff's dinner, and she got a lot of applause for it. Oh, and by the way, speaking of centrist culture, did you see who joined CNN Plus? Who?

Oh, you didn't see this? No. Okay, I'll make this one easy. Most respected journalist at Fox. I don't know. Chris Wallace? Chris Wallace is joining CNN Plus. Oh, finally.

Hello. Oh, they must be going crazy. Do you think he's intimidated showing up with me there? Do you think he's intimidated? No, I think he's a terrific interviewer. I think that's a big get. Wow, they are going crazy over at the right wing. Speaking of people who just like a piling, like it's everywhere, that kind of thing, like the fast pile on.

Like he does a good interview and they feel the need to insult him. Like why not say, oh, that was a good interview. You know what I mean? I experience it sometimes when I interview conservative people, I get a lot of pile on. I'm like, I'm often like, screw you. My job is to talk to people, difficult or not. So, but I agree with you in many more ways. What can we do, right? And I want to live, screw you. My job is to talk to people, difficult or not. But I agree with you in many more ways. What can we do, right?

And I want to live up to this. Anytime someone says something on Twitter or anywhere else, it's not your job to find the soft tissue of their statement and press on it. It's like, don't take shit out of context. And Jonathan Haidt said something that was so powerful and it's changed my behavior and reaction. Say, okay, there's a weakness in their statement or their soft tissue. So I could go after it and dunk on them. And the algorithms rubbed that. And he said, you should always take any gesture with the intention it was given. And most of the times when people get back in your face, it's like, come on, you know what they were trying to say. You know what they were trying to do. It was funny. And we just need to show a little bit, I think, and I'm trying to

take this seriously to heart, just a little bit more generosity. Agreed. We are in agreement about this. Interesting, it was actually one of the plot points on the morning show when this guy's like, just assume I'm on your side, because one of the characters is always fighting. Really interesting. It was actually complex. It was a complex thought and something that was more drama. And you know what's been overheard in the CNN elevator over and over?

What? Casey Hunt, Chris Wallace, and who? Oh, I love that. I love that. Do you think he's intimidated to be up so tight? When is this debuting? And when do they have to come get me to bail you out here? To bail you out?

That's called week one. No, week two. I know. Okay, this isn't working. I like that you're trying to go it alone, Scott. I love your little attempts to go it alone. Oh, hello, Times Sway, all the shit you do. But you go to cool lunches and don't invite me with basketball players, the Seoul Olympics

female basketball team. I would have rocked it at that party, by the way, at that lunch. There was no men involved. There was a man there. A guy from New York Magazine was invited. He left. Left by drinks.

He got left by drinks. If you came as a waiter, you could have come. The women there love me. They love the dog. They don't want the dog there. It's a lady lunch. It's a lady lunch

and you're not invited. Just talk to Joanna Coles, your friend Joanna. I don't make the rules. I would not have a lady lunch. I'd have men at my lady lunch. I would have been awesome at that party. Chris Wallace likes me. Chris Wallace likes me. I would not have a lady lunch. I'd have men at my lady lunch. I would have been awesome at that party.

Chris Wallace likes me. Chris Wallace likes me. He's going to walk right by you in the hall. He's like, who is this man? No, he's going to ask me for coffee. No, he's not. I'm so old, he's going to assume I'm like an HR. He is completely not going to ask you for coffee.

Anyway. But seriously, just pause for a moment. That's a big fucking deal. Chris Wallace at CNN. It is. That's a big fucking deal. Chris Wallace at CNN. It is. That's a big deal. It's a good.

I'm very excited. He's an excellent, excellent interviewer. All right. Next, we have. All we need is Neil Cavuto and then Fox is a shell of itself. There are no reasonable people left. No, it's not. It'll be fine with their crazies. They don't mind.

They don't like those other people who have a different point of view. It cleans it out for them. It makes it clear. I don't think America's smarter than that. Next up, we have a prediction from my role model and literally the dean of valuation and arguably the greatest instructor in the history of graduate education,

Professor Aswath Damodaran. Hi, Karen Scott. I'm not one for predictions. I'm not that good at them. But if I had to make a prediction for next year, it is that inflation will be the star of the show in either good ways or bad ways. In good ways, if inflation drops back to pre-COVID levels, I think we have a real shot of building on this economic recovery and keeping markets going. In bad ways, if inflation stays high, in other words,

it's not transitory, it's not because of the supply chains, then I think we have a real problem. Interest rates will rise no matter what the Fed wants them to do. The Fed might have to clamp down and try to bring inflation down. The economy will suffer and stock and bond prices will bear the pain. In addition, I think Bitcoin and gold and alternatives to traditional financial assets will do well. So I guess we'll find out soon enough. But I've had to make a call. 2022 is the inflation year. Thank you. Oh, man. He's delivering a tough message. Tough message in such a classy way. What a classy guy he is.

Anyway, corporate profits hit record highs in 2021, leading some to believe the real issue is corporate profiteering rather than inflation. Bitcoin, as he's noted, is up 60% from January 1st. Gold is down 6%. So he's sort of going with the inflation thing, which is not good for the Biden administration. It's not good for the economy. There's all this money being shoved into the economy with all these bills. So what do you think? What do you think, Scott? Well, so the annual rate of inflation last month was over 60%, a 30-year high. And it's also a

global phenomena. And that is the majority of nations are recording some of their highest inflation rates in a while. I'm not an economist, even though I taught macro and microeconomics in graduate school. But I actually would take, well, he's being smart. He's making a prediction that inflation will be front and center in 2022, which is probably true. What I find with technology is that technology is just so deflationary. And that is, so I'm in the ed tech business, right? My company's section four. I see how much money is pouring into ed tech and how much money is pouring into technology. And what I see is when you have this abundance of capital

going into tech and consumer tech, the first thing they do with that capital is they create or try and create a better product at a lower price. So I just think the capital going into technology whose mission is to bring prices down, I think will ultimately win as the supply chain or the gunk in the supply chain gets worked out. So I think the deflationary forces of technology will ultimately reign supreme here and inflation will start to come down. And if you look at the markets, if you look at the 10-year and the credit markets, they kind of agree with that thesis. And that is

interest rates have not gone crazy here, even though inflation- Disagreeing with Oswath. That's a tough- I think, I just think technology, if you look at technology and the abundance of capital available to trying to come up with a better product for less money, there's never been more munitions trying to find, invent better products for less money. I like that you're going up against a smarter guy, but okay. Oh, that's easy. By the way, Professor DeMotorin is going to be at Pivot MIA talking about stocks. Yes, he is. Very excited. Very exciting. Well, you two can debate this.

There's no way I'm debating. By the way, if you in fact see, let me just be clear, if you in fact see that there's some disagreement between Prof G and Prof D, oh, you should definitely go with Prof D. You should definitely go with Prof D. Let's not show Prof D. I'm going to start a show on CNN Plu called Prof D. All right, Scott, on to our next prediction. This one from author and reporter Shira Frankel on Meta. work and internally they're shuffling teams to dedicate their full resources towards that race they're up against apple google and a number of other companies that want to lay stake to the metaverse and facebook knows that at this point pr wise all they can do is hope that they stay out of the uh the top headlines in the new york times and other publications and that the focus shifts elsewhere so that they can get to work on the metaverse.

I don't know. Okay. Good luck with that, Facebook. They seem to always like land and hot water. You know, of course, they're moving everything in this direction because the big blue service is not what the business they want to be in anymore, and they're trying really hard. Now, other companies have done this, shifted. Google certainly shifted in lots of ways,

although search is still at the heart of their business. You know, companies always try. Microsoft kind of did this, moved into the cloud. And, okay, I just don't think they have enough creativity to do this. This is much too much of a creative endeavor, along with a technological endeavor. And I just don't think they've got the set to do it. What about you? Well, she is right. They're trying to create another weapon of mass distraction. And it's like, oh, let's talk about leaning in, or let's talk about the metaverse, because we want to just

change the conversation. And I don't doubt that the metaverse is going to kind of dominate the headlines as it relates to Facebook. But just to be clear, my personal mission is to remind people in all of 2022 over and over that unwittingly or not, probably the greatest exogenous influence across teen depression resulting in hospital admissions of self-harm up 80% since social went on mobile. And the primary culprit here is Facebook and specifically Instagram. And I think it's up to us to consistently remind people that these mendacious fucks should not be let off the hook

because of a fucking headset. DM, trademark, mendacious fucks is our next show. And the fact that Mark Zuckerberg wants to talk about his opportunity to see Ariana Grande in Istanbul with a prophylactic he puts on his head. This company is about to deservedly get a lot of scrutiny. And I don't think they're bad people. I don't think they meant to do this, but it's no accident that teen depression and self-harm among teens began to skyrocket about the time social went on mobile and about the time Facebook

acquired Instagram. So my prediction is, yeah, she's right, but we're going to continue to remind people what is actually going on here. Yeah. Yes, we are. Yes, we are. I sound so indignant. I know you're. I sound so indignant. Mendacious fuck sort of kind of registered what I think you meant. That's my new boy band. That's my new boy band. The Mendacious Fucks. What's your show and scene in Plu or maybe in the metaverse called Mendacious Fox?

I could be in a boy band. I have the same barber as Elon Musk. Really? That's your boy? You know what my band name is? By the way, you insult the dog on Twitter,

you get a terrible haircut. Okay. You get a terrible haircut. Do you know what my band name was? Why don't you ask? Go ahead. What's your band name? Pregnant Women Smoking.

Pregnant Women Smoking. Pregnant Women Smoking. I do like that. By the way, there's a great photo of my mom with a drink and a cigarette in a gigantic belly. That's me. Did you send a Christmas card? I didn't get a Christmas card from the Galloways, did I? No.

I don't send out Christmas cards. I was going to send out a Christmas card where my kids are smoking. We're recycling badly. We're all looking at our phones. That's what I was going to send out because all these people are so happy, shiny people. I mean this sincerely. You should send out a Christmas card. All of the kids and everything. It'd be pretty. Like the baby. You have the most beautiful child in the world. You have the most beautiful child in the world. You have white LeBron. You have the younger fourth wife. I mean, it just makes for an awesome Christmas card.

Yeah, but I want them to be doing bad things, right? Like, everyone's not looking at each other. I just, I hate Christmas cards. You have Bane. I don't give Bane enough love. Bane is so good. Your oldest son looks like Bane. I got home last night. I was late doing this Twitter spaces with Jerry from Succession, J. Smith Cameron, who is wonderful, by the way. And he was cooking. You met Jerry?

Yeah, last night. It was 2,000 people on Twitter. She's incredible. I'm going to get her to come to Pivot. How's that? She's great. I love that Jerry. I love Jerry.

That's my favorite relationship in the whole thing. Yeah, she's wonderful. She's an amazing actress. What else has she been in? I will watch. She's been in a lot of Broadway stuff, a lot of theater in New York. Not just Broadway, but all over New York. She's very well-

Oh, we got to roll with Jerry. Can you get Jerry to come out with us? She and I have been texting this entire show. Anyway, I got home. I rolled home, and Louie was cooking in a cat. Did she send a dick pic? Wait, what's going on here? No, we talked about that.

You can listen to it on Twitter. Louie was cooking an entire trout. By the way, you're haunting me. An entire trout. Go ahead. I'm sorry to interrupt you again, but if I interrupt you seven million more times, we'll be even. But I literally,

I watched Succession and I'm like, that was fantastic. I'm ready to go to bed. And then all of a sudden, I see fucking Join Us After Hours with Kara Swisher.

And I'm like, Jesus Christ, leave me alone. Leave me alone. You should have listened. It was Jerry. It was Jerry and Comfrey. Comfrey was watching.

I just shut off. Comfrey, he saved Kendall. I'm like, God, that was amazing. I'm trying to process it all. I'm like, for more, go to our podcast with Carrie. I'm like, oh, God. God. I'm everywhere.

To resist is futile. Oh, don't be a mendacious fucking. Just be happy for me. MF. MF. I like that. I'm going to use that term now. Okay, Scott, one more prediction from a friend of Pivot. I think you have a very special connection to this guest. Let's listen. I like that. I'm going to use that term now. Okay, Scott, one more prediction from a friend of Pivot.

I think you have a very special connection to this guest. Let's listen. Who's that? Hey, Cara and Scott. George Hahn here, one-time co-host of Pivot and Scott's future ex-mistress. Listen, my prediction. The 2008 Pixar movie WALL-E will continue to look less like an animated sci-fi fantasy and more like a documentary. The film depicts a time when fossil fuels and the greed from the profits continue to fuck up this planet so badly that it can barely sustain life.

A time when we've over-consumed and generated so much waste on land, in oceans, and even in space that we've run out of places to put the trash. A time when human interaction and social skills have atrophied to the point where people live in their devices and have lost the ability to have any real intimacy. Metaverse, anyone? And speaking of atrophy, the humans in the movie glide around in floating barca loungers with no physical activity, constantly slurping from sippy cups while squeezed into yoga pants and adult-sized stretch onesies. But that's not the future, kids. That's now.

But as the movie portends, I believe there is hope, as long as there is a will to be better than this. That is my prediction for 2022 and beyond. Oh, your ex-mistress is wise. Oh, there's every reason but one that I would like to be in a relationship like that with George Hahn. By the way, I owe you, and of course, I'm relaying this back to me. First, I think George Hahn is a gift. I absolutely love him. I don't know if you watch his- Yeah, he is.

He's a delight. His things on Twitter where he takes walks. Yeah. I think he's fantastic. Or when he's shaving in the morning. Yeah, he's a delight. But I owe you. I owe you thanks.

I have become friends with George Hahn because of you. So I got a friendship out of this. Good. Well, good. And I think I'm about to become friends with George Hahn because of you, so I got a friendship out of this. Good. Well, good. And I think I'm about to become friends with Preet. Preet. Oh. I was on his podcast, and I like him.

Were you? See, I told you. He and I are going to get together socially. Oh, yeah. We're going to get together socially. You're both tall men. You were very tall. Preet's tall.

I saw that at Kodak. I saw a little spark between you, a little spark when you met in person. I like him a lot. I think you're intrigued with each other. You sort of— But G. Hahn, he and I have become friends. And I think George Han is a really interesting kind of cultural voice.

I wonder how it's going to... My prediction is in 2022 is that George Han you hear more about and from because I think there's going to be... Why don't you get him a show on CNN Plu since you're over there? Well, he's going to be... You know what I'm going to do?

I'm going to have a segment called George Walks the Dog and we're going to do his walks. I'm serious. I'm 100% serious here. And I'm just going to ask him questions and get his responses. And of course, I'll weigh in because I got to turn everything back to me. You need to make him a star. That's what you need to do. He's a star. Well, that's one of my predictions. I think Jihan, I think 2022 is a big year for her. Well, I like this. Let's focus on his prediction, which I think he's

right. You do start to feel like you've got to put some pants on and get outside and start being nicer to people. I think both Stephanie and George are correct in that way. I had a thing today where I drove the golden child to school, and then I was coming back and someone was being a real dick on the road. And I usually, like, chase them, essentially. You pull your gun out of your glove box? Right, what i did i didn't i slowed down and i just was like serenity now i don't know i don't know what got me but i was like serenity bow i i give him a friendly honking horn i go beep beep and i wave at him and i smile like they like i'm like i think they're my friend

hey hi that's that and that really pisses him off. I'm not going to change for life, but it was really interesting. And, you know, now, of course, when Amanda goes, what does mom say in the car? Meaning me, mom is saying in the car, and it's go, go, go. Go, go, go. Go, go, go, which I'm always, because people are slow. But circling back to George Hahn's prediction about, have you seen WALL-E? Yes, many years ago. Fantastic movie.

It's a wonderful film. Worth seeing movie. It's a wonderful film. Worth seeing again. It's a wonderful film. Yeah. Let's not do that. Let's not become that. It was a beautiful film. It was a poignant film.

It got a lot of attention at the time, but it's underrated in terms of, you know. I saw there's a new Buzz Lightyear coming and stuff like that from Pixar, but that was a hell of a movie. That was a hell of a movie, WALL-E. Buzz Lightyear? Yeah, Buzz Lightyear. There's a new movie. There's a new, I forget what it's called, Infinity and Bad. I don't know. Anyway, it looks good. Pixar always does great movies. Okay, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back to give our own predictions for 2022. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact.

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In the face of disruption, businesses trust Alex Partners to get straight to the point and deliver results when it really matters. Okay, Scott, we're back. Time to give our own predictions for 2022. Why don't you start?

Well, I'm telling you, my predictions event hasn't happened. It's been rescheduled for the first week in January. So I don't want to, I don't want to like steal my thunder. I've got a bunch of one that you could pull out one nugget. One nugget. Just one. I think, I mean, a few of them, Discovery Plus, as imagined, will be broken up in its first or first year. It's not going to survive as an independent company. I think we're going to see a lot of focus on Chinese stocks, for better or for worse, but they have been hurt so badly.

I think the EV market cap of Lucid, Rivian, and Tesla is going to get cut in half. I think I said that last week. I think the short opportunity of the century is D-WAC. I think it is comical that Trump and Nunes are going to try and run a tech company. I think that's literally hilarious. So I've got a bunch of stuff that I think is going to, a bunch of predictions around tech and stocks, which I always get shit for deservedly. And you know, my usual stuff, Twitter will be acquired, all that good stuff. Anyways. All right. I'm not having any more children this year. That you know of.

That's when you usually get pregnant with twins. Oh wait, how does that even happen? It doesn't. It doesn't. I've done. You should have more kids. I predict your television show is going to be a huge hit or not. Go on. Go on. Or a flaming disaster, which is always good, too. Look at me. I can't stop smiling.

Yeah. I can't stop smiling. It's the one medium I have not figured out is TV. I am going to move into television in 2022. Kara's going to move into television. I can't say how, but I'm going to. That's my prediction. By the way, we're co-hosts. They're just not paying you. No, I'm not. Not unless you

pay me. I predict our Pivot Miami is going to be wonderful. I think people should. February, February. By the way, I heard we have more applicants than we have seats. We do. That's right. We do. We do. We're vetting people. So we get to be editors. We get to decide. I think it's one thing. I think we invite Preet, George Hahn, Aswath Damodaran, and then just hot people. That is my criteria. Just ridiculously hot people. We are going to invite a lot of people, and it's going to be really fun. We're going for, you know, illumination.

I think we're going to go for illumination and a lot of fun. It's going to be a lot of fun. And you have a lot of fans in Miami. My friend who is a big caterer down there is so excited to meet you. They're very excited. That's nice. Is that a true story? I need the reaffirmation.

Is that a true story? Yes, yes, yes. She called me from her beautiful Miami condo or whatever the other day. And she's like, what's new? And I go, oh, I had a baby. She's like, what? That's how people in Florida. And then I asked her for some Florida advice. And she gave some good stuff about doing events down there and stuff like that.

Anyway, it's going to be great. I predict our thing, and there's a lot going to go on this year in terms of stuff we're going to be making, I think. Correct? Correct? We're going to have a coin that gives you the right to our EV vehicle. That's right. The Erecto vehicle. The Erecto dysfunctioni.

Oh, my God. And free Chipotle to you for the whole year. And it'll be worth more than Fiat Chrysler on the first day of trade. No, it won't. Anyway. No. Scott. Can anger fuel a car?

If it can. I can save the climate. It's true. Climate change over. No. We found a way to channel his anger and depression. Climate change would be over. Anyway, Scott, that's the show.

This is a very long show. Thank you all for sticking with us. Oh, nuclear is going to be big. What? Okay. All right. Okay, stop. Nuclear is going to be big in 2022.

Save it for your show. It's going to be big. Nuclear is going to be big. Thank you to all our friends at Pivot for sending your predictions. They were all terrific. As I said, I'm excited to announce our event. Pivot MIA is now accepting more applications to attend. You don't want to miss this.

Visit nymag.com slash pivotmia to apply. And don't forget to check our Twitter feed for the latest updates. In coming weeks, we'll have lots of great episodes in the feed for you, including a look back at the biggest stories of 2021, some of our favorite moments from the podcast, the end of year listener mailbag episode. So stay tuned and we'll see you in the new year. Okay, Scott, read us out until 2022. Today's show was produced by Laren Naiman, Evan Engel, and Taylor Griffin. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Neil Silverio.

Ernie Ingetot engineered this episode. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify, frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from Vox Media. We'll be back next Tuesday for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

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